1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 2: No, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us 3 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 2: live weekdays at ten am Easter but Apple CarPlay and 4 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,400 Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 5 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 3: One story that caught my eye today I actually had 7 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 3: to do with private equity firms and private equity firms 8 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 3: getting rid of their equity and the liquidity in the 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 3: market always a big question, but even more so now 10 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 3: as the IPO market in the amity market kind of 11 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 3: goes nowhere fast. Claire Ruckin is a Bloomberg News senior 12 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 3: reporter and she joins us on in the story. Claire, 13 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 3: we are kind of waiting for the private equity guys 14 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:46,880 Speaker 3: to like offload all their stakes and companies this year. 15 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 4: Is that happening. It's not happening at the moment. 16 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 5: There's a bit of a sign of life, but it's 17 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 5: it's nowhere near where they wanted it to be. And 18 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 5: so because it's nowhere near where they wanted it to be, 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 5: they have to get creative and do other types of 20 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 5: dills in order to try and show some returns to shareholders, 21 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 5: and that's by dividends. They're loading their portfolio companies with 22 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 5: debts and they're taking it out as a dividend to 23 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 5: show some sort of distribution. 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 6: What are the lenders saying here, because I mean, you know, 25 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 6: this is a dividend recap, that's what we used to 26 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 6: call it back in the day here, and that's not 27 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 6: the type of loan that you generally like to make. 28 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 6: But it seems like lenders are going to step up here. 29 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, so we're still calling at dividen recaps. They're happening 30 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 5: quite a lot. If you look at like where dillflow's 31 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 5: coming from, you've got a lot of like refinancing of 32 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 5: existing debt and then you've also got these dividends now happening. 33 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 5: It's like the next stage on Because the debt markets 34 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 5: are so hot, so there's been a record level of 35 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 5: inflows into credit funds and collacterize loan obligations, which are 36 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 5: the biggest buyers of loans, and they're desperate to put 37 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 5: their money to work. And because there's been a lack 38 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 5: of M and A and a lack of new places 39 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 5: to put this money, sponsors have been able to get creative. 40 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 5: That's private epty firms, and they are doing dividend recaps, 41 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 5: so they're adding debt onto companies and taking it out 42 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 5: in the former dividends. And this is something that investors 43 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 5: traditionally don't like because obviously you're piling leverage onto a company, 44 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,240 Speaker 5: and it's something that's usually a nog. But because the 45 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 5: debt markets are so hot at the moment, they're like, yeah, 46 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 5: this is great. It's a new place to you know, 47 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,200 Speaker 5: put new capital, and so they're giving the go ahead 48 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 5: to them. Basically, so we have seen quite a bit 49 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 5: of volatility hit the market at the moment because the 50 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 5: Trump and tariffs and Dell's are starting to get pulled. 51 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 5: But the ones that are not the dividend recaps. 52 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 3: So usually when we talk to private equity guys are like, 53 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 3: look like you're locketting your money five, seven, ten years, 54 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 3: it's going to be fine. We can manage any sort 55 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 3: of big swings in volatility. Does that still ring true 56 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 3: or are we seeing some issues here? When liquidity tightens up, 57 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,799 Speaker 3: it gets harder and harder to find ways around it. 58 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, that's right. They are having some difficulties. They're having 59 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 5: difficulties showing those exits. So whether it's via the IPO 60 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,959 Speaker 5: market or the M and A market. They just haven't 61 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 5: come back yet to the level that they would have wanted. 62 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 5: We are seeing some dells happen. So Walgreen Boots was 63 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 5: a massive deal. It's most probably one of the biggest 64 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 5: LBO since the financial crisis, and that's something that banks 65 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 5: have piled into and they feel confident that they can 66 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 5: sell down to investors. But those megadills are few and 67 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 5: far between. We might see some mortil flow happening in 68 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 5: the second half, but it really it's not where people 69 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 5: would have wanted it to be, and therefore privateity firms 70 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 5: are having to get creative and investors are you know, 71 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 5: holding their noses and buying in Basically, this isn't the 72 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 5: type of dills that they would have liked. In essence, 73 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 5: you are piling debt onto companies, you're increasing leverage, but 74 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 5: it is an opportunity to invest new money, and therefore 75 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 5: they're doing it even if that means that the existing 76 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 5: debt is getting refinanced at a lower rate and therefore 77 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 5: they're getting a lower return on their money. 78 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 6: Clear one of the one of the key key variables 79 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 6: and these types of deals is what kind of return 80 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 6: does the equity investor get paid here on this dividend? 81 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 6: If I know, if this person, you know, investment firm, 82 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 6: put in a dollar and I loan them money for 83 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 6: a dividend recap, do I value that dollar at a dollar, 84 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 6: a dollar, fifty two dollars, three, three dollars. Are they 85 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 6: getting returns when they get these divnd recaps? 86 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:36,160 Speaker 4: It depends. 87 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,840 Speaker 5: It depends how much they're able to take out. I mean, 88 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 5: Clarios's is one of the biggest, most recent examples. It's 89 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 5: the biggest dividend recap that we've seen in a very 90 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 5: long time. They took out, they raised four point five 91 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 5: billion of debt and they took all of it out 92 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,559 Speaker 5: as a dividend, and they got one and a half 93 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,159 Speaker 5: time's return on their equity. And we are asking other 94 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 5: companies come back and they're issuing, you know, not just 95 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 5: one division, but it might be their second or their 96 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 5: third time that they're doing this. So in some instances 97 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 5: they're just getting their initial equity return or reducing the 98 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 5: amount of equity that they have in a company. But 99 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 5: in other instances, yeah, they're getting all their equity back, 100 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 5: if not more. And the debt markets are allowing for that, 101 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 5: there's a lot of money out there that needs to 102 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 5: be invested, and this is a place where they can 103 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 5: invest it. So there is a caveat. It has to 104 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 5: be for most probably a strong issuer, a well known 105 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,839 Speaker 5: company with a borrower that you know that they know, 106 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 5: and a privateity sponsor that is liked. 107 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 4: Really great reporting. 108 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 3: It was such a great story I recommend that everyone 109 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 3: read it on the terminal there. Again, it's about private 110 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 3: equity firms getting rid of their equity. Claire, thank you 111 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 3: very much. Claire Reckon, Bloomberg News Senior Reporter. 112 00:05:56,520 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 2: You were listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast program live 113 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and 114 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 115 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York 116 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 2: station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 117 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 3: Well later on today, Ukrainian President Vladimir Lenski will speak 118 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 3: with you, as President Donald Trump, following Trump's conversation with 119 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,799 Speaker 3: Putin that lasted nearly two hours on a ceasefire yesterday. 120 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 3: Nasty Whitcoff is a White House Special Envoy to the 121 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 3: Middle East and he joined Bloomberg Surveillance this morning, and 122 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 3: when asked about a ceasefire between the two countries, he said, 123 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 3: it is very likely to happen. 124 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 7: What was agreed between the two presidents was, and it 125 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 7: was at President Trump's suggestion, that there'd be a cessation 126 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 7: of attacks on energy infrastructure from both sides and all 127 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 7: and civilian infrastructure for that matter, also working towards a 128 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 7: black Sea moratorium on hits on naval vessels and freighters 129 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 7: carrying grain and things of that, and ultimately that would 130 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 7: evolve into a full on ceasefire. 131 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 3: That was Steve Woodcoff, White House Special Envoy two the 132 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 3: Middle East. Let's get more perspective on this with Shelby McGee, 133 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 3: a Deputy Director of Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council, 134 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 3: joining us now on this. 135 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 4: Lots of questions to unpack. 136 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 3: Here, Shelby, but based on what we saw overnight in 137 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 3: terms of some attacks, in terms of some attacks on 138 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 3: energy infrastructure, what did you make of where the ceasefire 139 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 3: is and where the reality is? 140 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 8: Thank you, and I'm glad you mentioned those attacks and 141 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 8: those are Russian attacks. Russia sent over one hundred and 142 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 8: fifty drones and hit Ukraine including taking out the power 143 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 8: in one city, hitting hospitals and other infrastructure. So what 144 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 8: we're seeing is that President Trump yesterday said and he 145 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 8: posted on true social that there was an immediate limited 146 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 8: agreement for a ceasefire and that would cover energy. 147 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:54,040 Speaker 4: And I'm not sure. 148 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 8: How immediate that is because as we now see Russia 149 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 8: immediately violated it. They might say that this will be 150 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 8: a read on later looking at how to actually enact 151 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 8: this and execute it in the talks in the Middle 152 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 8: East with the US and Russia. But unfortunately, I do 153 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 8: think Wikkoff's assessment of the call in the situation is 154 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 8: a bit optimistic. Though we are moving in the direction 155 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 8: where we could see a c spire, but it doesn't 156 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 8: look like Putin's overall goals and demands have changed. 157 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 6: Shelby, as we sit at this stage here at the 158 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:29,520 Speaker 6: US slash Ukraine on one side, and maybe I don't 159 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 6: Russia on the other, is there where's the leverage right now? 160 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 6: Do you think so? 161 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 8: Of course, the US has leverage, and we saw President 162 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,680 Speaker 8: Trump using that leverage against Ukraine and that was a 163 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,199 Speaker 8: painful roller coaster. But I think we're in an okay 164 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 8: position there right now. But Trump also threatened recently that 165 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 8: there's still more leverage and pressure that he can put 166 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 8: against Russia. There is more economic pressure that we can 167 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 8: do with increased sanctions, and I believe Senator Lindsay Graham 168 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 8: also is preparing a package of legislation that could put 169 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 8: that pain on Russia as well. 170 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 3: What do you think the conversation is going to be 171 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 3: later on today, when Zelenski and Trump wind up having 172 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 3: this phone conversation in light of the last twenty four hours. 173 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 8: I'm glad they're speaking. It's really important that Ukraine is 174 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 8: not left out of this conversation, and it's great that 175 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 8: President Trump is taking the time to speak to him. Immediately, 176 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 8: I imagine that President Zolensky will point to the Kremlins readout 177 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:25,959 Speaker 8: of the call, which differed from the White House readout. 178 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 8: The Kremlins readout reiterated many of these maximalist demands that 179 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 8: Putin has that are red lines for Ukraine and truly 180 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 8: would be existential threats to their security. So Zelenski will 181 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 8: point to that. He'll talk about the damage that Ukraine's 182 00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 8: all every night. But Zelensky will also smartly, I hope 183 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 8: thank the US for the continued engagement and support, and 184 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 8: also talk about Ukraine's willingness and desire for peace, because 185 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 8: as we've seen, Putin and Russia are the obstacle. 186 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 6: So I guess just yesterday's call, some could read it 187 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 6: as a disappointment that Russia did not agree to the 188 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 6: seaspire as Ukraine has done. 189 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:03,960 Speaker 1: Do you read it that way? 190 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 8: I'm not surprised. I am disappointed with everything that Russia does, frankly, 191 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 8: but I read it as a positive, neutral or slightly 192 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 8: positive on the US side, And that is actually more 193 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 8: important because we did not see President Trump move away 194 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 8: from support for Ukraine. We did not see him bend 195 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 8: too many of these demands from Putin, and on the 196 00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 8: Russian side, they're stalling for time. Putin is very good 197 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 8: at playing people, and so I hope that Trump does 198 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 8: not get played well. 199 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 3: To that point, what was interesting is that Steve Woodcop, 200 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 3: the White House Special Envoy, said that we're gonna trust 201 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 3: Putin and take him at his word. 202 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:43,200 Speaker 4: What is the history in that happening. 203 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 8: The history is that you should never take Putin at 204 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 8: his words. So again, as I said earlier, that's an 205 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 8: optimistic take. Of course, you need to listen to what 206 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 8: Putin is saying, but you also need to look at 207 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 8: his actions. As for the history, Russia has violated ceasefire 208 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 8: agreements with Ukraine. I don't know the exact number of times, 209 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 8: think it's in between one hundred and two hundred times 210 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:06,840 Speaker 8: over the Menska agreements. And they continuously act aggressively even 211 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:09,440 Speaker 8: after they say they won't and that they want peace, 212 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 8: that they care about saving human lives. And Putin has 213 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 8: shown he doesn't even care about the lives of his 214 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 8: own soldiers. 215 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 6: So I guess you know. White House special Onenway wid 216 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 6: Coughin did say that the seasfire could happen in a 217 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 6: couple of weeks. Do you share that timeline view? 218 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 8: I think that could be realistic. It depends on what 219 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 8: the US continues to push on Russia. I do think 220 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 8: that Putin and the Russians are hesitant to completely say 221 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 8: no to Trump and risk hurting their warming relationship and 222 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 8: angering him, So a ceasefire there's a lot to work 223 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 8: out on the technicality side. Ukraine is not the hold up, 224 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 8: so we'll have to see. But I think i'd say 225 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 8: sooner than a couple of weeks does not seem likely, 226 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 8: But a lot of discussions can happen in a couple 227 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 8: of weeks, so maybe. 228 00:11:56,000 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 3: Maybe it doesn't sound like you're particularly optimistic necessarily. What role, 229 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 3: if I'm paraphrasing you, what role do you think that 230 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 3: europe will be playing in this Because we make a 231 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:12,280 Speaker 3: lot of hay about Germany expanding its ability to reindustrialize 232 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 3: and rearm, but all of that's going to take a while. 233 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 4: In your estimation, what does that part of the story 234 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 4: look like. 235 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 8: That's a good question, and you were right in your 236 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 8: paraphrasing of me. I'm not overly optimistic, but I do 237 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 8: feel better when I look at the European angle. I 238 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 8: don't see a European role in the upcoming negotiations on 239 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 8: the ceasefire, which I think is a mistake because they 240 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 8: have a huge stake here. But what has been great 241 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 8: is that while the catalyst was unfortunate following the Oval 242 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 8: Office blow up with Trump and Zelenski, you're really stepped 243 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 8: up their commitment and their action, and we've seen a 244 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 8: lot of progress, and they're trying to do more than 245 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 8: just words and meetings. So we see movements about this 246 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 8: idea of a coalition of the willing that would be 247 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,719 Speaker 8: European forces to go in after a peace agreement. Of course, 248 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 8: we're not out there yet. We see more commitments on 249 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 8: European defense and the moves in Germany are really important. 250 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 8: And this all adds up to signs and signals to 251 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 8: poot in two. 252 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 4: So I think it all is. 253 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 8: Positive, but we might not see the immediate effect. 254 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 6: All right, Shelby, thank you so much. Really appreciate getting 255 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 6: your thoughts here. Shelby McGee, Deputy Director, Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. 256 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 257 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Easter on Apple car Play and 258 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 2: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 259 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:40,320 Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 260 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:42,840 Speaker 4: Every day. We like to delve into the big take stories. 261 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 3: They're deep, deep, deep reporting and digging onto the top 262 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 3: financial business and economic stories of our time. And the 263 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 3: latest one today has to do with TD Securities, Tidbank, 264 00:13:54,920 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 3: I should say, losing billions in a money laundering scam complicated, 265 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 3: and we're here to help break it down for you. 266 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 3: David Arrakis is a Bloomberg law reporter. David, can you 267 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 3: just remind US as to what this story is actually about. 268 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: This is a major money laundering scandal involving TD Bank 269 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:20,360 Speaker 1: after it did a large expansion in the United States, 270 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: and the bank pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money 271 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 1: laundering in federal court in New Jersey last year, and 272 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: it paid a three point one billion dollar fine to 273 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: various US agencies. What became clear and what our story 274 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: is about, is how TD Bank failed to implement basic 275 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 1: money laundering controls that all banks are required to use 276 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: so that criminals cannot wash money, as they say, into 277 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: the financial system. 278 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 6: Well, I've learned all about this money laundering thing for 279 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 6: various TV shows, you know, including Breast Breaking Bad. That's 280 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 6: where I get most of my knowledge is from you know, 281 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 6: Breaking Note that this happened in the great state of 282 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 6: New Jersey. That's how we do that is coincidence, folks. 283 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:16,840 Speaker 6: All right, So David, if you're Toronto Dominion, how did 284 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 6: this happen? How does this stuff like go undetected in 285 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 6: such size like this? 286 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: Well, what happened was TD Bank expanded rapidly over a 287 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: decade and spent something like twenty billion dollars to increase 288 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 1: its footprint in the United States, and as it did that, 289 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: it was also supposed to scale up its anti money 290 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: laundering controls. However, it failed to do that and there 291 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: were a lot of red flags along the way indicating 292 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 1: that its system was not working and because of its 293 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: cost cutting measures, it did not spend the money it 294 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: needed to spend and to make sure that criminals were 295 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: not accessing its branches. And I would just say that 296 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: the story really begins when we talk about a Chinese 297 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: born businessman in Queens, New York named David C who 298 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 1: had gotten into money laundering, and he, as part of 299 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: his money laundering organization, helped drug dealers put their money 300 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 1: into the financial system, and through a series of tests, 301 00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: he determined that the controls at TD Bank were the 302 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: most lacks of any of the banks that he used, 303 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: and so he was able to bribe tellers to be 304 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: able to put large sacks of cash into the bank. 305 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: And the bank was supposed to follow federal regulations to 306 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: ask a lot more questions than they did. For instance, 307 00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 1: if someone wants to put more than ten thousand dollars 308 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: in cash into the bank, the bank is supposed to 309 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 1: file a report called a currency transaction report, which alerts 310 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:22,960 Speaker 1: the Treasury Department to this deposit, and in hundreds of instances, 311 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 1: TD Bank did not file accurate currency transaction reports about 312 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,880 Speaker 1: the deposits made by David C and the people he 313 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: was working with in this criminal enterprise, and so that 314 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:44,480 Speaker 1: allowed CIS organization to launder more than five hundred million dollars. 315 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 1: Even though the regulations were in place and the bank 316 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,479 Speaker 1: knew what it was supposed to do, it failed to 317 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: do so. And more than two dozen people have now 318 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 1: been criminally charged as a result of the investigation stemming 319 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 1: from TD Bank. David C has pleaded guilty, he's awaiting sentencing, 320 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:14,360 Speaker 1: and there's several bank insiders who've also been criminally charged 321 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:16,680 Speaker 1: by the Justice Department. 322 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 4: All right, we really appreciate it. Thank you so much. 323 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 3: David David rikas Bloomberg Legal reporter joining us in that 324 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 3: Big Take. 325 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 4: Definitely check it out in the Bloomberg terminal. 326 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 3: Also Bloomberg dot com slash Big Take the money laundering 327 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 3: scams that cost TD Bank billions. 328 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 4: Wow, something you know. 329 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 6: Having learned about this on various television shows, The hard 330 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,760 Speaker 6: part of being a criminals is laundering the money. I think, 331 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,919 Speaker 6: I mean, how do you take your all those you know, 332 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 6: singles and fives and tens and put him into a 333 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 6: bank and write checks and do all that kind of 334 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 6: stuff atm cards. 335 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 4: Hey, you know, it's tough stuff. It's a lot of work. 336 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 4: It's a lot of work. 337 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 8: He needs to do that. 338 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 6: There you go. 339 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 340 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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