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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.

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Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news.

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Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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Speaker 3: It's Nathan Deana Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 2: Look Look, look, look, look see there in the I

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Speaker 2: see him lower the right hand corner, I see him. Indeed,

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Speaker 2: are streaming live on YouTube dot com. By the way,

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Speaker 2: so if you type in Bloomberg Radio on the search

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Speaker 2: on YouTube dot com, you can see us. You see

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Speaker 2: me my bright green shirt there, and you'll see Nathan

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Speaker 2: Dean in a moment, Nathan.

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Speaker 3: We got headlines.

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Speaker 2: Across the terminal that the SEC is going to finally

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Speaker 2: impose these new hedge fund and private equity rules fee

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Speaker 2: disclosure treatment of certain investors, and the hedge fund industry

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Speaker 2: has threatened to sue over this proposal.

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Speaker 1: What do we know?

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Speaker 4: So, essentially, this is a proposal that would require the

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Speaker 4: hedge funds and private equity funds private funds to disclose

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Speaker 4: a lot of information including compensation, fees, performance and so

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Speaker 4: forth like that expenses, and this is a standardization or

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Speaker 4: a standardized disclosure so that an investor can essentially compare

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Speaker 4: and contrast the performance of one fund versus another. In

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Speaker 4: addition to this, it would also prohibit certain conflicts of interests.

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Speaker 4: One of the more interesting aspects of the proposal is

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Speaker 4: if you're going to cash out an investor and you're

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Speaker 4: going to give a certain rebate or allow that investor

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Speaker 4: to cash out at a certain percentage, you have to

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Speaker 4: make that available to all different types of investors. Now,

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Speaker 4: like you said before, the Managed Funded Association and the

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Speaker 4: trade associations hate this rule. It's going to be significant

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Speaker 4: costs in terms of compliance headaches. The big funds should

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Speaker 4: be okay, but this is really also going to increase

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Speaker 4: competition amongst the smaller funds. We certainly anticipate the funds

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Speaker 4: will sue. They've said that they could sue within the

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Speaker 4: first two weeks. In fact, the Managed Funds of Associations

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Speaker 4: comment letter before it was finalized said that they were

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Speaker 4: attacking the cost benefit analysis of the rule. For those

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Speaker 4: of us in Washington, that's essentially a keyword. We're going

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Speaker 4: to sue you. Now, the SEC did make some changes.

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Speaker 4: They actually took out some language that made it a

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Speaker 4: little bit easier for people to sue funds, but I

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Speaker 4: certainly don't think that's going to keep the MFA and

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Speaker 4: the other types of fund industries from taking this to

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Speaker 4: the courts.

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Speaker 1: So again, just give us the history here, and Nathan,

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Speaker 1: is this a solution in search of a problem or

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Speaker 1: is there really concern out there about disclosure from the

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Speaker 1: hedge funds.

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Speaker 4: So I think what this is that they took a

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Speaker 4: consumer level initiative, which is disclosures to consumers, and thinking,

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Speaker 4: you know, just not sophisticated investors, but just disclosures to

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Speaker 4: individual consumers, and then they applied that to the private

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Speaker 4: fund industry. Now, the SEC will say, look, there's eighteen

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Speaker 4: you know, trillion dollars in assets under management in these funds.

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Speaker 4: Investors need to know what's happening here. But the funds

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Speaker 4: come back and say, look, we're dealing with sophistic get investors.

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Speaker 4: We already give them these types of disclosures anyway. So

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Speaker 4: I'm not exactly sure that the you know, this was

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Speaker 4: really like, I think the most important rule that the

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Speaker 4: SEC should have been working on, but obviously it's one

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Speaker 4: of the biggest and more dramatic impacts to the fun industry.

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Speaker 4: This is something the SEC has wanted to do for

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Speaker 4: a while now, and you know, we will see when

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Speaker 4: we get the final language, when these funds have to

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Speaker 4: start complying with it. I should also note that if

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Speaker 4: you are a non US fund, as long as you

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Speaker 4: take in US money or US clients, you're gonna have

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Speaker 4: to adhere to this as well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if they already give them these disclosures, I

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Speaker 2: can't imagine why compliance costs would climb, right, If you

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Speaker 2: already are transparent about your fees and expenses, then you

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Speaker 2: should just be able to publish that. It seems like

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Speaker 2: they might be fighting back more Nathan, against rules that

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Speaker 2: would prohibit them from allowing favored investors to cash out

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Speaker 2: more easily than others.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely. I mean for the big funds, the compliance costs

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Speaker 4: looks they already do this, But for a lot of

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Speaker 4: smaller funds out there, they don't have this type of

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Speaker 4: legal compliance expertise. They're certainly going to have to ramp

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Speaker 4: up there. But like you said before, I mean this

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Speaker 4: the biggest issue here is the comparison angle. You know,

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Speaker 4: if there is some type of secret deal that's going

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Speaker 4: on out there, well that deal now needs to be

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Speaker 4: made public. And if you're going to compare against one

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Speaker 4: fund versus the other, and some of these comparisons also

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Speaker 4: have to go down to the portfolio levels, so not

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Speaker 4: just the entity level. You know, if you're looking to

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Speaker 4: invest in a hedge fund or a private equity fund,

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Speaker 4: anytime soon, you're going to get a lot more information

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Speaker 4: on how to make those decisions, and competition is going

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Speaker 4: to increase as a result. You know, we've seen some

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Speaker 4: economic evidence. I'm not sure if I actually buy into this,

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Speaker 4: but we've seen some economic evidence cited by the SEC

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Speaker 4: that fees will go down as a result of this.

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Speaker 4: But you know that will have to be played out

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Speaker 4: over the next few years.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, all right, Nathan, Hey, thanks so much for

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Speaker 1: joining us. Nathan Dean, He's a senior US policy analyst

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg Intelligence. Absolutely spot on this news.

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Speaker 6: Here.

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Speaker 7: You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg

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Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

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Speaker 1: Eric Adelberg, mortgage backed security strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, joins

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Speaker 1: us Erica. We had some new home sales data come

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Speaker 1: out today. What's what's your sense of what we saw

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Speaker 1: builders are building?

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Speaker 8: It looks like, yeah, you know, it actually surprised me,

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Speaker 8: we saw I mean, to be fair, this is actually

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Speaker 8: reflecting mortgage prices probably that were maybe prior to the

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Speaker 8: latest jump up. Yep, but we're still seeing the share

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Speaker 8: of new homes increasing. They're about sixteen percent of total

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Speaker 8: sales now. And what the things that surprised me today?

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Speaker 1: So sixteen sorry a round sixteen percent of total sales?

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Speaker 1: Is that higher than average? Lower than average?

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Speaker 5: Were we?

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Speaker 8: Yeah? It was down to like six percent like a

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Speaker 8: couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: Right, and so the long term average new homes built

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Speaker 1: maybe ten percent of the stuff being bought and sold. Yeah, okay,

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Speaker 1: so now it's higher. Yeah, because Matt's not going to

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Speaker 1: sell his west Chester retreat because he'd have to.

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Speaker 3: Goes I locked in at three and a quarter percent?

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Speaker 5: Are right?

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Speaker 1: So that's the problem, right, or that's the issue.

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Speaker 8: Well, the other things that surprised me were the fact

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Speaker 8: that the home prices actually, and these are a bit

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Speaker 8: of more of a jumpy series than existing home prices.

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Speaker 8: But existing home prices and new home prices in the

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Speaker 8: last month's report were more like median prices, call it,

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Speaker 8: were more or less equal. Usually new homes traded about

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Speaker 8: twenty five to thirty percent higher than existing homes, and

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Speaker 8: then this month that completely reversed. So the median price

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Speaker 8: for the new homes is now like four thirty six

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Speaker 8: and for the existing homes now back to four h six.

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Speaker 8: The existing home price fell a little bit, as you'd

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Speaker 8: expect season late, but new home prices actually jumped a

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Speaker 8: bunch from four to fifteen last month to four to

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Speaker 8: thirty six this month, So that's interesting. So it's not

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Speaker 8: just that they're cutting prices.

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Speaker 2: Erica, what is the your mortgage rate you look at,

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Speaker 2: because obviously it varies depending on a borrower's credit quality

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Speaker 2: and you know, the asset, et cetera. But I can see,

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Speaker 2: you know, in official Bloomberg stories, a much lower rate

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Speaker 2: sited than I see on the bank rate thirty year

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Speaker 2: mortgage right, So we're saying seven point three percent right

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Speaker 2: now and sounding an alarm. Meanwhile, the bank rate is

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Speaker 2: over seven point six. Yeah, what's the rate that you

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Speaker 2: look at, and why.

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Speaker 8: I do like to look at bank rate because it's

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Speaker 8: available daily Mortgage news daily also. But the big difference

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Speaker 8: when you're looking at mortgage rates is looking at what

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Speaker 8: they call effective rates, what you're paying if you hadn't

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Speaker 8: paid points, versus what the contract rate rates, which is

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Speaker 8: where a lot of people actually take out the mortgage

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Speaker 8: because they are paying points. So once you adjust for

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Speaker 8: the points and look at a no point adjusted rate,

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Speaker 8: it's always closer to the bank rate number. So even

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Speaker 8: even on the NBA thirty year fixing an index that

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Speaker 8: they released today, we have an index in Bloomberg that

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Speaker 8: they also release called MB thirty er effective rate and

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Speaker 8: similarly we back out and no point freddimack rate and

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Speaker 8: those are all above seven and a half percent. Now,

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Speaker 8: so yeah, mortgage borers might be able to get a

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Speaker 8: lower rate, but that's because they or somebody else is

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Speaker 8: paying points. Now, one of the reasons new home sales

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Speaker 8: has been doing as well as it has is because

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Speaker 8: the builders have come up with this great strategy where

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Speaker 8: they're actually buying down the mortgage rate for a lot

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Speaker 8: of their buyers. So until recently, some buyers were able

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Speaker 8: to get mortgage rates closer to five percent. It's a

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Speaker 8: good deal for the home builder. They don't have to

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Speaker 8: reduce their prices, and you know, make other people who

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Speaker 8: want prices on homes that higher prices mad. But at

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Speaker 8: the same time it makes it more affordable for new

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Speaker 8: home buyers.

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Speaker 3: So the builders.

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Speaker 2: It's not like the builders are extending lines of credit

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Speaker 2: to buyers. They're not giving mortgages to buyers. They're just

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Speaker 2: turning to the bank and saying, we'll buy points for them.

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Speaker 8: I mean, in some cases they have a relationship with

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Speaker 8: a lender. In a few cases they actually can probably

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Speaker 8: offer them mortgage. Have their own financing arms, they have

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Speaker 8: their own financing arms.

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Speaker 1: It's been a tough month for fixed income, really tough

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Speaker 1: month for mortgage of backed securities, off two point six percent.

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Speaker 1: What's it like out there in the NBS market these.

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Speaker 8: Days, It's it's probably pretty tough for some investors. It's

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Speaker 8: an interesting time for strategists. But one of the things

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Speaker 8: I'm looking at this morning is actually just how different

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Speaker 8: the current coupon, which is kind of where things are

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Speaker 8: being issued, is versus the mortgage index. And while the

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Speaker 8: mortgage index has underperformed because it's very long duration now,

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Speaker 8: because people are just sitting on their mortgages forever.

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Speaker 1: Matt I will be on it for years.

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Speaker 8: So from a duration standpoint, it's going to trade pretty

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Speaker 8: similarly to the tenure treasury, if you will. In fact,

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Speaker 8: mortgage spreads for the whole index aren't widening that much.

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Speaker 8: The same divergence between what you said about where mortgages

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Speaker 8: are being issued right now versus what most people have

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Speaker 8: is reflected in the mortgage index right now. The current

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Speaker 8: coupon or where the yield egals to the coupon around

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Speaker 8: par is about six percent for the first time again

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Speaker 8: for many, many years. But the mortgage index coupon is

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Speaker 8: below three percent. All right, So that yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 8: I'm not saying it's not underforming, but yeah.

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Speaker 1: All right, Erica, great stuff again, Erica Adelberg, NBS Strategists,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence joining us here.

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Speaker 1: So it looks like BAA slash Merrill. They're trying to

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Speaker 1: make a push on across their trading business. What did

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Speaker 1: you find out?

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Speaker 9: So it's funny baa second largest bank by assets, but

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Speaker 9: when you talk to folks cross Wall Street about trading,

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Speaker 9: they're not the first name that comes up in conversation.

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Speaker 9: And really that just comes down to their risk tolerance.

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Speaker 9: Since the financial crisis, since they bought Merrill, since there's

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Speaker 9: been so much integration, they've kind of held back. And

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Speaker 9: while they're still serving clients and they are one of

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Speaker 9: the largest firms that is trading with buyside investors, they're

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Speaker 9: not taking as much market share as let's say JP Morgan,

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Speaker 9: But that's starting to change. About three years ago they

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Speaker 9: named a new head, Jim Damar. He took over for

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Speaker 9: Tom Montag who was really running that trading business along

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Speaker 9: with investment banking. And in the last three years they've

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Speaker 9: added some talent, some key talent from those firms that

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Speaker 9: take risk your bets, from Goldman Morgan Stanley, and they've

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Speaker 9: also been able to get more capital. They went all

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Speaker 9: the way up to CEO moynihan to their head of

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Speaker 9: risk to ask for basically more room to run. And

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Speaker 9: while they're still in a narrower risk tolerance than others

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Speaker 9: with more capital and with these key hires, they've been

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Speaker 9: able to slowly chip away and gain more market share

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Speaker 9: over the last two three years.

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Speaker 2: So have they built up a bigger team? I know

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Speaker 2: there is a speech at least I read in a

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg story that there was a speech last year where

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Speaker 2: Damar said, listen, if you're not willing to give it

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Speaker 2: your all and you work your butt off to build

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Speaker 2: this business, you might want to work somewhere else.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, exactly So about a year ago is when he

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Speaker 9: gave that speech, and it was after second quarter results

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Speaker 9: where some of the other banks had posted pretty impressive

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Speaker 9: results within fixed income. Especially this was after the war

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Speaker 9: in Ukraine had broke out, and you had banks on

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Speaker 9: Wall Street taking advantage of all the volatility. They were

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Speaker 9: helping clients place bets tied to Russia. Bank of America

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Speaker 9: did not. They had a mandate from high up that said,

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Speaker 9: you guys got to hang back. You can't get involved

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Speaker 9: in these types of trades. You can help clients unwind

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Speaker 9: their positions, but you can't help people profit and we

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Speaker 9: can't profit off of this war. So this was why

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Speaker 9: Jim was getting up and saying, hey, we have progress

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Speaker 9: that we still have to make. And that comment was

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Speaker 9: made to his group, the entire trading team, to say,

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Speaker 9: if you're not willing to put your best foot forward

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Speaker 9: and to act, maybe not aggressively in the form of

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Speaker 9: taking more risk, but you got to be willing to

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Speaker 9: be top three, then yeah, maybe you should look elsewhere.

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Speaker 9: And he's not making this statement to say here's the

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Speaker 9: door and you should be going to somewhere else get

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Speaker 9: out of here. He's just saying we want to have

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Speaker 9: people that really want to be here and that we

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Speaker 9: want to make headway. And one year later they have.

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Speaker 9: They've shown that their second quarter results this year, so

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Speaker 9: this is one year after the the kind of tepid

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Speaker 9: results they saw year ago. They were up ten percent

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Speaker 9: when all the other banks on Wall Street were down.

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Speaker 9: Now that's also because you're comparing it to the record

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Speaker 9: quarter again a year ago post the war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 10: So it's it's.

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Speaker 9: Really going to be a story that we'll keep tracking

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Speaker 9: and if this group can continue to maintain the growth

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Speaker 9: and the market share that they have chipped away at again,

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Speaker 9: then it might be something that they are able to sustain.

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Speaker 9: But that's still a question mark. It's not a foregone

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Speaker 9: furgone conclusion.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 1: When I was at Meryl, we were going to go

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Speaker 1: pitch a company, a public company, on a follow on offering,

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Speaker 1: and that one of the things was we wanted to

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Speaker 1: be a top trader in stock. We want to say

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Speaker 1: we were your number number one trade, which we weren't

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Speaker 1: really like three, third, third or fourth. So I went down.

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Speaker 1: My job was to go down and talk to the trader.

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Speaker 1: It was probably my same age, young and they said,

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Speaker 1: you know, if you can, we'd appreciate it if you

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Speaker 1: could take a bigger profile on XYZ stock from that

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Speaker 1: day forward until we pitched the IP in like two months.

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Speaker 1: Number one, every you're singing every single day trading the

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Speaker 1: stock and not just a commitment of capital, you know,

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Speaker 1: So that trader that desk was willing to put up

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Speaker 1: to capital to make our jobs of getting the follow

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Speaker 1: and offering easier, which we did get and made a

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Speaker 1: big print. Looking at the comp function, No for the stock,

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Speaker 1: Bab's kind of flat over the last five years, Morgan

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Speaker 1: Stanley up fifteen percent, Goldman Sacks up nine percent. So

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Speaker 1: if you go to Brian moynihan, now do you feel

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Speaker 1: like if I'm a trader and I asked for some

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Speaker 1: more capital, you think he's going to be more open

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Speaker 1: to that.

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Speaker 8: So there's a lot that's.

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Speaker 9: Changed in the last year and capital has become more

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Speaker 9: constrained across Wall Street. But the bank, if if you

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Speaker 9: were to ask them, I'm sure that they would say,

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Speaker 9: we have enough cash on the balance sheet. They will

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Speaker 9: show you that with the numbers, and they will say

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Speaker 9: that if the capital is needed and the group, whether

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Speaker 9: it's the trading group or the investment banking group, comes

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Speaker 9: to us and has a good pitch and they explain

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Speaker 9: why they need what they need, we'll give it to them.

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Speaker 9: But I think that that's probably getting harder to do.

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Speaker 9: Those pitches need to be pretty clear, pretty persuasive. But

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Speaker 9: what you just described is exactly what they're trying to

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Speaker 9: focus on, which is making sure that the groups within

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Speaker 9: this huge organization are working together. So if you have

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Speaker 9: someone in investment banking that's working with a client, it's

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Speaker 9: a corporate client, and then they need to hedge their

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Speaker 9: risks whether it's their currency risk or their rates, They're

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Speaker 9: going to want to say, hey, you should talk to

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Speaker 9: our trader who can help you out. And I think

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Speaker 9: that when you have such a big organization this is

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Speaker 9: not specific to be of a but anywhere often communication

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Speaker 9: lines can break down. So they're just trying to communicate

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Speaker 9: better in order to either get clients to interact with

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Speaker 9: them more or to tap new clients that they might

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Speaker 9: not even know that they can be working with and

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Speaker 9: that they should be working with.

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Speaker 3: So who's the best and biggest trading desk on the

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Speaker 3: street and.

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Speaker 9: What do they do right well, right now, JP Morgan

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Speaker 9: does have the most market share and that's been kind

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Speaker 9: of the same for as long as I've tracked.

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Speaker 1: It's really which is in the long time, No, it's long,

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Speaker 1: but yet they have the big capital behind them. It's

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Speaker 1: all about how much capital you can put up. So

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Speaker 1: JPM Morgan gold and Sacks Morgan Stanley, you know, those

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Speaker 1: are things. And if you're Merrill Lynch and you've got

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Speaker 1: the Bank of America balance sheet, but Catherine is just

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Speaker 1: reporting less less ready to put up you know, some

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Speaker 1: incremental capital here, but maybe that's changing a little bit. So,

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Speaker 1: but it's good stuff. I remember, it just took me

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Speaker 1: like a forty five minutes to find where this kid

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Speaker 1: sat on the trading floor. That's how big the Maryland's

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Speaker 1: trading floor was and how many people were there. I

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Speaker 1: had to find it. You know, it's crazy, but anyway,

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Speaker 1: that was a good, good story. Catherine, thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for the reporting here. That's story just jumped off the

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Speaker 1: termino for me this morning. Katherine Dherty, Finance reporter for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, the thundering Herd

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Speaker 1: of Merrill Lynch, maybe stepping up a little bit more

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Speaker 1: on the margin.

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Speaker 7: You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg

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Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 7: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen

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Speaker 7: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: The question I have is, why is all these countries

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Speaker 1: tripping over themselves to get to the moon. Did we

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Speaker 1: do that like more than fifty years ago? I don't

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Speaker 1: know what the big deal is, but our next guest

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Speaker 1: will help us out here. Lauren Grush, Space reporter. That's right,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg has a Space report. Why because we have twenty

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Speaker 1: four hundred journalists accrown around the world.

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Speaker 3: We cover everything and fifty countries.

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Speaker 2: But also, I mean it's a huge and emerging.

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Speaker 3: It's a business industry. I mean, look, I think.

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Speaker 1: It's not just NASA anymore.

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Speaker 2: Let me ask Lauren. I'm pretty sure, Lauren. First of all, hello,

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Speaker 2: welcome to the program. Thanks for joining us. Didn't Elon

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Speaker 2: Musk and SpaceX just raise new money at an even

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Speaker 2: higher evaluation in what is for most startups of down market?

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Speaker 11: They did, But they also have quite a lot on

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Speaker 11: their plate in terms of what they're trying to develop.

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Speaker 11: You know, they're working on Starship, which is this massive

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Speaker 11: vehicle supposed to take humans and cargo into deep space

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Speaker 11: and to the Moon, as you guys have been talking about.

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Speaker 11: And they're also expanding when it comes to their Starlink

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Speaker 11: initiative as well.

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Speaker 8: So they have quite a lot to work on.

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Speaker 11: And so that's ultimately why part of the reason why

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Speaker 11: they did that raise.

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Speaker 1: All right, Laurence, So help me out here. What's the

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Speaker 1: attraction to the south pole of the Moon? We had

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Speaker 1: Russia crash didn't quite do it, but India today reported

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Speaker 1: a successful landing. What are they after right.

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Speaker 11: So, the south pole of the Moon has been a

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Speaker 11: bit of a tantalizing place for scientists over the last

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Speaker 11: few years because more and more research has come out

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Speaker 11: and evidence has come out that the region might have

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Speaker 11: large quantities of water ice and these permanently shadowed cratered regions,

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Speaker 11: so areas that never see the sun, they get extremely cold,

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Speaker 11: and that's tantalizing for people, especially those looking to send

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Speaker 11: humans to the Moon, because there's the possibility that we

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Speaker 11: could mine this water ice and use it as resources.

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Speaker 11: We could use it as drinking water, could use it

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Speaker 11: as water for plants if we wanted to grow crops

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Speaker 11: on the Moon for lunar habitat, and it can also

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Speaker 11: be used as rocket fuel. You can break apart water

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Speaker 11: into its constituents and to make it into fuel that

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Speaker 11: could be used to send rockets off of the Moon.

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Speaker 8: The issue is we just.

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Speaker 11: Don't know what kind of form the water ice is in,

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Speaker 11: how much is there, So we need to get there

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Speaker 11: in order to prospect and to see, you know, is

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Speaker 11: this a viable option to use for future exploration initiatives.

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Speaker 2: So older listeners, Lauren are going to be wondering, is

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Speaker 2: this the dark side of the moon. Nice, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: like about the polarity, and apparently one side of the

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Speaker 2: moon never what never faces the Earth or what's the.

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Speaker 1: Story with this?

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Speaker 11: So it's not the dark side of the moon. There

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Speaker 11: actually is no dark side of the moon. I hate

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Speaker 11: to break that news every what. Yes, you are correct, though,

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Speaker 11: there is a far side of the Moon that we

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Speaker 11: never see from Earth because it is tidally the Moon

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Speaker 11: is tidally locked, and so it is constantly facing our

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Speaker 11: planet in one direction. So you might be very familiar

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Speaker 11: with the face that faces us.

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Speaker 8: You may not be so.

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Speaker 3: Familiar with the face and the south pole is where

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Speaker 3: is that? Do we see that one? Or do we

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Speaker 3: see parts of it?

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Speaker 11: But yes, it is within our part of it is

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Speaker 11: within our site.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: Listen, Tucker's laughing at us because he knows all this stuff.

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Speaker 1: He does two videos on this. Yeah, yeah, all right. Lauren,

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Speaker 1: you're a space reporter. What are the big stories that

440
00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: you're kind of following. What are the themes that you're

441
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 1: following as it relates to your space beat.

442
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,679
Speaker 8: Well, you know, there's quite a bit going on.

443
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 11: As you've mentioned, the moon is a very popular place

444
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 11: these days, so you know, it's not just India, not

445
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 11: just Russia that are looking to go back. The US

446
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,879
Speaker 11: is actively looking to go back to the Moon. A

447
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 11: lot of those efforts stem from the from NASA's Artemis program,

448
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 11: which is a concerted f to send the first woman

449
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 11: in the first person of color to the surface.

450
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 5: Of the Moon.

451
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 11: Right now, they're targeting landing in twenty twenty five. I

452
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 11: think that is extremely ambitious and doubtful that it will

453
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 11: be achieved, but that is the outward goal at the moment.

454
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 11: And then through that initiative, there are a lot of

455
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 11: private companies that are also hoping to send their robotic

456
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 11: spacecraft to the Moon. So we have astrobotic and intuitive

457
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 11: machines who are also trying to reach this region of

458
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 11: the Moon with their own uncrude landers, and those are

459
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:38,440
Speaker 11: supposed to happen. Those are supposed to launch before the

460
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:38,959
Speaker 11: end of the year.

461
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: So hard, I don't get you know, by twenty twenty five,

462
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 2: couldn't we do it next week?

463
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 3: We did it in the sixties.

464
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 11: I hate to breakage everyone, but it's still quite hard

465
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 11: to reach the Moon.

466
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 8: You know, Yes, it is.

467
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 11: Something that we did in the sixties, but you have

468
00:22:55,280 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 11: to understand we were we had increased NASA's budget significantly.

469
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 11: At the time. There was an extreme focus on reaching

470
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 11: the Moon during that time. You know, we put a

471
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 11: lot of resources into it, and so now we don't

472
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 11: really have that same sense of urgency and NASA is

473
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 11: working with a much lower budget than it had at

474
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,679
Speaker 11: the time the space race was going on.

475
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 2: But my Nintendo, we has more computing power than NASA

476
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 2: did back then.

477
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 3: I mean, that's true, that's.

478
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 11: True, and that's and that's ultimately why we're making a

479
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 11: lot of strides in terms of, you know, who is

480
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 11: able to reach the Moon with these with those companies

481
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 11: I just mentioned, they're hoping to be the first commercial

482
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 11: companies to reach the surface of the Moon. That title

483
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 11: has not been claimed yet so far, it's only been

484
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 11: Nation States. But ultimately, you know, we are getting there.

485
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:49,959
Speaker 11: It's just taking a while, and we're trying to do

486
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 11: it in a in a smarter way that doesn't rely on,

487
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 11: you know, that big influx of cash.

488
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,120
Speaker 1: So Lauren, of all the private companies out there, because

489
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: that's what's different When I was a kid and we're

490
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: all fixated on NASA and we all want to be astronauts.

491
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 1: Back in the day, private space travel. Are there viable

492
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,439
Speaker 1: economic models out there? I mean, how do any of

493
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 1: these companies? Is it space tourism? Is it just taking

494
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 1: garbage out there? I mean, what are we doing?

495
00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 11: I mean, I think that's ultimately the prime question right now,

496
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 11: as more and more companies are trying to turn space

497
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 11: into a business. Can these businesses make money? The answer

498
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 11: we're getting from the few companies that have gone public

499
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 11: is not a lot. You know, they're bringing some are

500
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 11: bringing in revenue, some are not even bringing in revenue.

501
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 11: It's a very hard market to break through in because

502
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 11: it does require a lot of capital upfront, and to

503
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 11: develop these vehicles and these capabilities takes many, many years.

504
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 11: It's besought with delays, and so you know, we are

505
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 11: in an era that we're trying to prove that we can,

506
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 11: you know, make these companies into viable businesses. But there's

507
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 11: going to be a lot of casualties along the way,

508
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:13,639
Speaker 11: business casualties, not human casualties. And you know, it's I

509
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 11: think it still remains to be seen if these companies

510
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 11: can really turn a significant product.

511
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 1: And Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, you know, a couple of gajillionaires.

512
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,959
Speaker 1: They're all in on this business. I guess it kind

513
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: of feels for a lot of to a lot of

514
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: critics that it's just kind of a billionaire's game out

515
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,640
Speaker 1: there for for space. And you know, is there any

516
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 1: other real model out there?

517
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 11: Well, you have to understand, we've been we've been in

518
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:41,439
Speaker 11: the business of space for a really long time. The

519
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 11: earlier models, uh, focused more on defense contractors, you know,

520
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 11: building these vehicles and helped with NASA, but they were

521
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 11: not as vertically integrated as some of these newer players.

522
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 4: You know.

523
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 11: That seems to be one of the bigger changes that

524
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 11: and Jeff and these other companies are implementing his vertical integration,

525
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 11: so keeping everything in house. But as I mentioned, you know,

526
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 11: these companies require a lot of capital, and so that's

527
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 11: ultimately what they are able to help with, you know,

528
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 11: the billionaires is being able to give that kind of

529
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 11: big cash injection up front and to help out whenever

530
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 11: you know, money is tight.

531
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,959
Speaker 1: All right, Lauren, you're a graduate of the University of Texas.

532
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: Are you one of those crazy Longhorn alumni?

533
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 11: I'm sorry, are we crazy?

534
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 5: I think.

535
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 11: Regular college graduates?

536
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 1: Okay, because we have a Jess Metton who comes in

537
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: here and does a lot of work with us reporting

538
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 1: on the equities at Texas A and m GRAD. So

539
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 1: she's the only in her family.

540
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 8: I can't I can't speak to that.

541
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 2: Okay, Hey, what's the next cool launch you're gonna go watch?

542
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 3: Do you go down there and watch those?

543
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 8: I do.

544
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 11: I've I've been to quite a few, you know. Kennedy's

545
00:26:56,520 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 11: Space Centers kind of my second home sometimes. I'm in Austin,

546
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 11: Texas though, and SpaceX has been building their Starship vehicle

547
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 11: down in Bocachica, which is on the border of Texas

548
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,400
Speaker 11: and Mexico, and I have been there to see their

549
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 11: first test launch. We're gearing up for that second test launch.

550
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 11: SpaceX is going through the motions of kind of fixing

551
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 11: what went wrong during the first one. They're undergoing tests,

552
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 11: but signs seem to be pointing that we could be

553
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 11: seeing another test launch from Texas in the near future.

554
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 11: So we're just getting ready for that and seeing how

555
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 11: that will go.

556
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: All right, Lauren Grushy, Space reporter, Bloomberg News. Hook them horns, right,

557
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: another big football season coming up, and I'm sure they're

558
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 1: all fired up down there. I love that we have

559
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 1: a space reporter that's so cool.

560
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape cans are live program Bloomberg

561
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

562
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

563
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 5: The Bloomberg Business App.

564
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,199
Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

565
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 7: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, you play Bloomberg eleven.

566
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: Matt Miller, Paul swing here in a Bloomberg Interactive worker studio.

567
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: Want to get right to our next guest, because there's

568
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 1: a million ways we can go. Ronnie has set Home

569
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 1: Joints us. She's a managing partner of set Home Law Group.

570
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: A lot of things to talk about, Ronnie, but I

571
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: like to start with something near and dear to my heart,

572
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: which is the media companies in the Hollywood studios strikes

573
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 1: with the writers and the actors, and where are we

574
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 1: on this thing? Because it seems like both sides are

575
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: really entrenched. Although I believe the studios did come with

576
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: a proposal that seemed reasonable to me, but I'm not

577
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: in vob so well.

578
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 12: I think that both are holding pretty steadfast in the

579
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 12: direction that they want to go. I don't think anything

580
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 12: has been resolved at all since I've last been here

581
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 12: or since the strike went underway. It is true that

582
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 12: the studios did propose some changes. However, I believe the

583
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 12: union wouldn't come to the table, which is, you know,

584
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 12: a way of rejecting it outright.

585
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so these so there's been no talks. They

586
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: haven't been in the same room officially, I don't believe.

587
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,959
Speaker 1: So, no, no, But they came back with what I

588
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: thought were certainly I don't know what the word is,

589
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 1: but they were substantive. They addressed a lot of issues.

590
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 1: Whether they went far enough as the union, I don't know.

591
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: But if I were the studios and I put this

592
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: on the table, I would certainly expect a professional response,

593
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: wouldn't I? You would, And I'm not a negotiator.

594
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 12: Yeah, the negotiating table has to be went to in

595
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 12: good faith. Under the National Labor Relations Board rules, you

596
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 12: can't just refuse to engage in any kind of discord. However,

597
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 12: if someone comes back to you with what you deem

598
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 12: is a wholly unreasonable solution, you can take the position

599
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 12: that I guess that's what the union is taking at

600
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 12: this time. But you're right, everything was addressed, whether or

601
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 12: not it was addressed properly or thoroughly enough for the union.

602
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 3: I guess the answer is no, Ronnie.

603
00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 2: Let's just reset for listeners who haven't been following this

604
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 2: very closely. You work with the actors side, and what

605
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: are the demands that they've made, you know, just you

606
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 2: know elementary in sort of the elementary demands.

607
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: What exactly do they want?

608
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 12: Well, I think some of the celebrities who I represent

609
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 12: their individuals, just to be clear for the listeners, they

610
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 12: want to protect themselves and their image. They don't want

611
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 12: you to be able to take whatever image you've seen

612
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 12: in a movie, a TV show or whatnot and just

613
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 12: change it, right. I mean, AI can do so much

614
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 12: we don't even realize as the viewers. But you don't

615
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,959
Speaker 12: need to take additional takes. For example, you can just

616
00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 12: use whatever take was provided and then make whatever changes

617
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 12: you want to change, as long as you have the

618
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 12: image of the person, the motion of the person, and

619
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 12: the tone and sound of the person, which clearly you

620
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 12: would have when you take your first take. So I

621
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 12: think they want to protect themselves from being seen incorrectly,

622
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 12: right because who knows what you're going to do with

623
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 12: the image. But also it's about money as well. Every

624
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 12: time their image is used, they want to receive a royalty.

625
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 12: And I think that's like a huge debate right now,

626
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 12: you know what are we paying for exactly? And typically

627
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 12: contracts do state we control this image that you've provided

628
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 12: us with whatever it is for the show, for anything

629
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 12: in whatever medium exists now or shall exist. So we

630
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,080
Speaker 12: don't even know what else is coming after a hour.

631
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 1: Well that's even that's an I would say most content areas.

632
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 1: So for example, as a research channels Stall Wall Street,

633
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: I did not own my research. It belonged to the

634
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: firm I work for the models I created, the earnings

635
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 1: models belong not to me but to the company. And

636
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: so what you'd see before any analyst went from company

637
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 1: A to company B is he or she would take

638
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: their earnings models which they created, download them to the

639
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:55,440
Speaker 1: little floppy disc so they could take them to the

640
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: next spot, which was a no no, But everybody does it.

641
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 12: If you do that, I might send you a nasty letter.

642
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 3: Yes, Paul should maybe hire you.

643
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:08,720
Speaker 1: Yes exactly, But so that's isn't that kind of is

644
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: that law already created and aren't exists, We're just now

645
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: applying it to a different medium. I guess yes, in.

646
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 12: A way, that is true. But no one anticipated what

647
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 12: you can do with this technology. So for example, if

648
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 12: you sent me research and I, let's say I discarded

649
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 12: it or I changed it, I may not attribute it

650
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 12: to you. And so your your your research findings, if

651
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 12: they were not what I wanted, You're you're left out

652
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:35,920
Speaker 12: of it. Nobody knows about it.

653
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 8: Here.

654
00:32:36,520 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 12: It's your picture, it's your voice, it's your movement, and

655
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 12: we're doing something with it and you may or may

656
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 12: just may or may not agree with.

657
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 2: It, right, So that's something that's one of the things

658
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: that they want you to change. Then on the money side,

659
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 2: you know, there's I think we don't understand exactly how

660
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: much money. For example, sag Aftra estimates that these streaming

661
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 2: companies are making. Their representative was telling Paul that she

662
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 2: thinks they're making thirty billion dollars a year in profit,

663
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 2: but when we look at these earnings reports, that's not

664
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 2: readily apparent. So is that something that needs to be

665
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 2: solved how much money they're making off streaming, or does

666
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 2: it just not matter to your clients they want a

667
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: bigger take anyway.

668
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 12: Well, honestly, money's always a factor. So I think, of

669
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 12: course that does matter, and I think that there's I

670
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 12: don't know if it's a worldview, but certainly a US

671
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:35,239
Speaker 12: view that the gap between the owners and in this

672
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 12: case they're not employees, but we'll just use that analogy

673
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 12: should be smaller.

674
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 1: All right, So is this something like when we think

675
00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: about AI and all the uses and therefore misuses that

676
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 1: could be had of AI. Does law need to be created,

677
00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 1: do you think? Or just existing laws applied to a

678
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: much wider view now because of AI.

679
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 12: I think laws should be created, but I think it's

680
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 12: also too early. Who really can stand up and say

681
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 12: I thoroughly understand this technology and how it works. You

682
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 12: can't create a law around something you don't comprehend.

683
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 1: And what makes these discussions with the actors and the

684
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 1: writers is you know, I think an executive could stand up.

685
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: I would defend a media executive standing up saying I

686
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: don't know what this stuff is worth. I don't know

687
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: how we're going to generate revenue off of this stuff.

688
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: All I can tell you is when we think it up,

689
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: you'll get your cut. So you write up the language

690
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: that does that is what.

691
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 5: I would do.

692
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 12: Yes, that could be one way, but it's always the

693
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,680
Speaker 12: devil that's, you know, in details, and everybody wants those details.

694
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 12: But I think you can start from a contractual position

695
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 12: moving forward that says, I'm not giving you rights to

696
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 12: my entire likeness. I'm only giving your rights to this

697
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 12: particular season movie.

698
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 3: Whatever.

699
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 12: We can define it and slice it differently.

700
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think it's something well, I don't know.

701
00:34:58,040 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 1: I think there's language. I think there's language out there

702
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: that they can get things done, but it seems like

703
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 1: they're not a lot of movement there. So we'll keep

704
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: on on top of this thing in Hollywood, the whole

705
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:11,239
Speaker 1: AI issue, which is just you know, mind numbing to

706
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: think about where this could all go and the applications

707
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 1: of AI across a range of industries, and the lawyer's

708
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: got to figure it out.

709
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 2: Rania set Home, like Ronia exactly great to have you

710
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 2: in the studio. Ronia, thanks so much for joining us.

711
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,839
Speaker 1: It's awesome. Ronnie set Home managing a partner at set

712
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 1: Home Law Group, live in a Bloomberg Interactive broker's studio.

713
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape Can's Are Live program Bloomberg

714
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

715
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the.

716
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 5: Bloomberg Business app.

717
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

718
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 7: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

719
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: Scott Kelly joins us. He's a founder and CEO of

720
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: ATOS Capital real Estate. But Scott, thanks for coming into

721
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. But I want to this dude.

722
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: Was that Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley, Dean Witterard, Dean Whitdter. Now,

723
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 1: for people who don't know of the investment banks, Morgan

724
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:06,919
Speaker 1: Stanley has always been is the biggest player I think

725
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 1: in commercial real estate. When I think about investment banks

726
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,320
Speaker 1: swinging and around in commercial real estate, I think of

727
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: these guys. So you were there during the heyday. You're

728
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: now at Ato's Capital. Thanks for joining us. You're welcome,

729
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: all right, commercial real Estate. I walk to Penn Station

730
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 1: every day. Nobody's in their office. It's dark. I've never

731
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: seen it like this. Nobody's ever seen it like this.

732
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 1: But at some point some smart people are going to

733
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:35,720
Speaker 1: come in and say enough, this is where you start banking.

734
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 1: You talk to us, how you guys view the commercial

735
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:39,240
Speaker 1: real estate business.

736
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 6: Well, I think there are a number of factors that

737
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 6: are cutting against any kind of rapid improvement in the

738
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 6: commercial real estate.

739
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 2: And we're talking specifically office here, right, Well, yeah, and.

740
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 6: More generally, but basically, real estate's a cyclical business. Office

741
00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 6: is probably the most cyclical of all of that in retail,

742
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 6: and I think everybody agrees, whether it's a soft landing

743
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 6: or hard landing, we're at a difficult time in the

744
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 6: economic cycle. Second, there are huge secular and demographic shifts.

745
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 6: One of the reasons New York offices are emptier because

746
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 6: a lot of people are leaving New York. And again,

747
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 6: those shifts impact different real estate classes vastly differently. So

748
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 6: as an example, office and retail have been hurt by

749
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 6: the secular shift to work from home and online shopping,

750
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 6: and warehouses logistics facilities have done well.

751
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 10: So Scott, let's throw in rates because it's not just

752
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 10: these demographics. It's also you're making the point that the

753
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:46,880
Speaker 10: cost of capital or the Fed fund rate has basically

754
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 10: gone up five hundred percent. I mean, that's got to

755
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 10: create a lot of pain.

756
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 6: Well, I think there are two aspects. So that one

757
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 6: you've got an unbelievable amount of commercial real estate debt maturity,

758
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 6: something like set one hundred and fifty billion in the

759
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 6: next year and something like one point seven trillion in

760
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 6: the next four years. And a lot of those loans

761
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 6: were made in essentially a zero interest rate environment, and

762
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:17,759
Speaker 6: they're not refinancible at seven percent, so there's just not

763
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 6: So you've got this enormous amount of debt maturity coming

764
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,319
Speaker 6: very high interest rates, and it's going to create a

765
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 6: I think a great investing opportunity.

766
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 3: In a reset.

767
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 2: I mean, I have happened to be involved in a

768
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 2: small family real estate company in Columbus in Columbus, Ohio,

769
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 2: and we have a lot of office space, mostly medical, thankfully,

770
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 2: and we have also a lot of student housing for

771
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 2: the Ohio State University. But I know that, you know,

772
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 2: our refis are going to be very difficult at these levels,

773
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 2: and I'm hoping that, you know, we can get through it.

774
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 2: But there's going to be the other family real estate

775
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:03,800
Speaker 2: trusts that are not going to be able to refine.

776
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 2: They're going to have to sell to somebody who has money.

777
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 6: Yes, And interestingly, when you're talking about Columbus, which has

778
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 6: a very strong economy, because of the university, because of

779
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 6: the state, because you know, it's a good place to

780
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 6: work and live. There are a lot of cities like

781
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 6: that that continued that will be okay. You know, the

782
00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 6: demographic shifts don't cut against the Columbus Ohios. They don't

783
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:29,279
Speaker 6: cut against the big cities in Florida, you know, but

784
00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 6: they do cut against the high tax, increasingly crime ridden

785
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 6: big cities of the North. So certainly they're going to

786
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 6: be different. Real estate is still a local game, and

787
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 6: they're going to be different impacts on different property types

788
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 6: and markets. But certainly they're going to be lots of

789
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 6: people that aren't going to be able to refinance the debt.

790
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 6: And interestingly, in previous crashes in the late eighties and

791
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 6: early nineties, that was driven by the essen else which

792
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 6: were essentially put out of business in the big money

793
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:06,839
Speaker 6: center banks which had too much exposure. In eight it

794
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 6: was Wall Street, which had a lot more leverage than

795
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 6: anybody thought because of essentially derivatives and other matters.

796
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 2: Are the regional banks going to have I mean, I know, well,

797
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:18,080
Speaker 2: Huntington just got a big bond.

798
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 3: Issue out yesterday, right, But there are some regional banks

799
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 3: that have been downgraded by S and P and Moodys.

800
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 2: There's some regional banks that probably have too many whole

801
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: to maturity bonds in their portfolio.

802
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:30,240
Speaker 3: I mean, they're going to be tightening their credits.

803
00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 6: That's exactly the right point. You know that the big

804
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 6: money center banks are okay. If you look at their

805
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 6: commercial real estate exposure relatives to their loans, you know

806
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 6: they've kind of learned their lesson. The problems are going

807
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 6: to be in the mid size and the smaller banks, where,

808
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:49,319
Speaker 6: particularly during the COVID era, there wasn't a lot of

809
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 6: commercial loan demand, and they made a heck of a

810
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 6: lot of real estate loans and they made them in

811
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 6: a lot of cases to people unlike your family, but

812
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 6: a lot of people that weren't particularly good. So they're

813
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 6: going to be the problem is going to be not

814
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:08,840
Speaker 6: as concentrated as it was in the crisis of the

815
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 6: late nineties the late eighties early nineties, as concentrated into

816
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 6: as it was in two thousand and eight, but very

817
00:41:16,280 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 6: widespread because of the fact that these loans sit in

818
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 6: medium to smaller size banks around the country.

819
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 10: So you're making some really big comparisons there from a

820
00:41:25,320 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 10: cyclical standpoint. So going back to the idea that you

821
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 10: think that there's going to be this huge opportunity, some

822
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 10: of the dominoes have to start to fall. When do

823
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 10: you see that happening? How long does this distress cycle happen?

824
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 10: And is your firm.

825
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 8: How do you actually go about this?

826
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 10: Are there properties that you're identifying, modeling out and then

827
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 10: you're ready to jump on when they potentially go into distress.

828
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 6: Well, we've formed a new company called Waivertree Property Partners

829
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 6: with a group called PTM, guys that I've worked with

830
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 6: for a long time. They're great developers because and they've

831
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 6: developed twenty two billion and invest in twenty two billion

832
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 6: with their predecessor companies and now as an independent company,

833
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 6: very strong, you know, kind of dirt under the fingernail

834
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 6: type real estate folks. And we think that a lot

835
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 6: of these opportunities are going to involve not just buying

836
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 6: things cheap, you know, not just you know, we buy

837
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 6: it at ten cents of the dollar, hold it out

838
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,240
Speaker 6: for a little while, and send it'll sell our twenty

839
00:42:26,239 --> 00:42:29,320
Speaker 6: cents on the dollar. But because of these projects needing

840
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 6: real work, because a lot are ill conceived, a lot

841
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:36,720
Speaker 6: of buildings are going to be have to be repurposed.

842
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 6: We formed this venture to really both be a partner

843
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:46,440
Speaker 6: to existing financial institutions which have problems, and to you know,

844
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:50,360
Speaker 6: raise additional outside capital to augment our capital and investing in.

845
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 10: These So you believe in this so much that you're

846
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 10: raising capital for. And what's so interesting about it, Scott,

847
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 10: Because of course I know that Atos, you've only been

848
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 10: in Asia over the last twenty years, ten billion dollars

849
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 10: of real estate over there. But you think that this

850
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 10: opportunity is so attractive, as painful as it could be,

851
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 10: that you're forming this.

852
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 6: New Yes, exactly. Look, I think Japan. We have really

853
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 6: scaled our Asian operation to invest solely in Japan. We

854
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 6: put you know, six hundred billion of equity into China

855
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 6: over the past fifteen years. Every deal we did made money.

856
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 6: I wouldn't do another one of them year, which too painful.

857
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 6: Japan is a place I think where in a slow growth,

858
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 6: stable economy, they don't have the work from home mentality

859
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 6: that we have here. The people go to the office more. So,

860
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:49,479
Speaker 6: you know, we think that that's kind of, with reasonable risk,

861
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,719
Speaker 6: a good place to earn kind of load to mid

862
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,919
Speaker 6: teen returns. Which is a good thing. But we see

863
00:43:56,040 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 6: this opportunity in the US as being exponential, really bigger,

864
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 6: with the possibility of making really significant money if you

865
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 6: can combine the financial acumen of being able to underwrite

866
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 6: this stuff with the operational skills to reposition, to to

867
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 6: repurpose in a lot of cases properties that need to

868
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:23,240
Speaker 6: be significantly changed.

869
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 1: So, Scott, do you think this new group will be

870
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: acquiring properties, real properties or the debt of distress properties

871
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 1: or both. How do you think you're going to play

872
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:34,799
Speaker 1: a capital you.

873
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 6: Know, just over my whole career. In doing this, you

874
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,320
Speaker 6: have to be flexible as to what the seller wants.

875
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 6: In some cases, the seller wants to just sell alone,

876
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 6: be done with it, move on you guys, you know,

877
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 6: take them through bankruptcy or do whatever you're going to do,

878
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 6: and we've done a lot of that. In other cases

879
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 6: they're like just bid as the debt or the asset,

880
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,280
Speaker 6: and we'd like to get rid those. In some cases

881
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 6: it's a big portfolio. We want to take care of

882
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,240
Speaker 6: everything in one fell swoop. You have to be able

883
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 6: to be flexible to what the seller.

884
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 1: Are This is just a personal question that I'm dying

885
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 1: to know. In a city like New York City. If

886
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 1: a big trophy property on Fifth Avenue or Lexington commercial

887
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: property were to trade today, what percentage haircut would it

888
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: be from pre pandemic, do you think?

889
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:26,400
Speaker 6: Well, again, I think a lot of that has to

890
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 6: do with the quality of the asset.

891
00:45:28,520 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 2: The trophy property. They're still going for, not a discount, right.

892
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 5: Right, Yes, B and C.

893
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 1: How about the Benz Third Avenue all that stuff on

894
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 1: Third Avenue from Dunk, No, it's not junk. It was,

895
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:42,839
Speaker 1: it's not. My question is like on that stuff from

896
00:45:42,840 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 1: Grand Central up here, that's you know, the last twenty

897
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 1: thirty years construction. Yeah, no, hedge fund hotels them until

898
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:50,960
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes ago.

899
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 6: You know, I think it's interesting. They're really high quality buildings.

900
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,399
Speaker 6: One of the things I was just said an event

901
00:45:57,480 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 6: over the GM building a couple of weeks ago, heavily

902
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 6: amendetizing office cookings. Now if you look at one Vanderbilt,

903
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 6: you know, yeah, that's all great restaurants. They have great

904
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 6: amenities for the you know, for the tenants, and I think,

905
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 6: you know, I think that's the way you really compete.

906
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 6: Hudson Yards would fall into that Chameter streat.

907
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 1: And see something a big property trade. I don't know

908
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 1: if it's gonna be thirty cents on a dollar, fifty

909
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:22,959
Speaker 1: cents on the dollar, sixty cents on the dollar.

910
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 10: When do you think we see the trade, because that's

911
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 10: exact the anticipation.

912
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's when the dead comes due, yep, and it

913
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 6: can't be refinanced. That's when you see the trade.

914
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 1: All right, Scott, thanks so much for joining us. We

915
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 1: got to go, but the fascinating we want to hear

916
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 1: back when you get this seeing role in. Scott Kelly,

917
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,560
Speaker 1: founder and CEO of Atos Capital Real Estate.

918
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can

919
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

920
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer.

921
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 3: I'm Matt Miller.

922
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 2: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and

923
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 2: on Fall.

924
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast.

925
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,760
Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg.

926
00:46:59,760 --> 00:46:59,920
Speaker 7: Great