1 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by Bett three 2 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today 3 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: is our Week thirteen NFL episode. I am Chad Milman, 4 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming 5 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: off of a two and three week in our contest. 6 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: We reviewed that extensively in our Sunday Night recap episode 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: since we had contest plays on the Chargers on Sunday 8 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: Night Football for posterity. We lost. It was an excruciating 9 00:00:39,880 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: way to end the week. We had Chargers plus three 10 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: and a half ninety seven seconds in a Zay Flowers 11 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 1: touchdown run when he should have gone down away from 12 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: covering a lot of lines we liked have already moved 13 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: since Sunday when we did our Sunday episode, which is 14 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: why you need to listen to that Sunday show if 15 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: you want to get the best the number. On today's show, 16 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: we will not only get to our Simon says in 17 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:06,480 Speaker 1: our exact decision. What we will get to our Simon 18 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: Says and our exec decision. On Thursday. We will finalize 19 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: our big Balls better the Week, our Foxhoul, our Survivor, 20 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 1: our money Line parlay, and don't forget me and Simon 21 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: go and live this Sunday. That's right Live show this Sunday, 22 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: December third, The Shepherd in the Knucklehead, Hoboken, New Jersey. 23 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: Free to get in, free drinks, free chance to bet 24 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 1: with or give me and Simon big big hugs. You 25 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 1: must rsvp check out the link in the description page 26 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: or the description here on this YouTube page and in 27 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: the podcast episode page. Can also go to eventwright dot 28 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: com search the Favorites podcast for more info and to RSVP. 29 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: This episode, we'll look at the entire board. We'll begin 30 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: narrowing down the five picks we'll enter in the Favorites 31 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 1: Podcast one hundred one thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them 32 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 1: contests still open for sign up, awarding weekly and season 33 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: long prizes Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. All right, time 34 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:13,600 Speaker 1: to get serious, because the dust has settled in the contest. 35 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 1: Everyone's two lowest scores have been dropped. That was always 36 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:22,080 Speaker 1: the deal. After Thanksgiving games, two lowest scores get dropped. 37 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,799 Speaker 1: Simon and I are now in three hundred and sixth place. 38 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: We had been at about one ninety I think before 39 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: the drop. We are eight wins behind the number one spot. 40 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: We fell out of the top one percent out of 41 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 1: eleven thousand, eight hundred entries. We are still top three percent. Listen, 42 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, we know what our 43 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: favorite coach, Mike Tomlin would say about that's so. 44 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,360 Speaker 2: Bit we set responsibility for that. We will not go gently. 45 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 2: We're gonna unleash hell here in December. We're gonna go 46 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 2: into tag mode because we have to, because that's what's required. 47 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: Let's bring in my co host, my bff MO, my companion, 48 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: my compadre professional better, Simon Hunter. Simon, Hello, listen to me. 49 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: Listen to me. Here's the problem. We are underdog players 50 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: and we've been like just fighting, fighting, scratching Klin in 51 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 1: the past few weeks. I want to give you a stat. 52 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: The past week, favorites went twelve and three per Evan Abrams. 53 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 1: This has only been done four times in the Wildcard era. 54 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 1: You know, we're fighting the trends by being underdog players 55 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:32,799 Speaker 1: right now. 56 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, But at the same time, we've we've tried to adjust. 57 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 2: Right even last week, I was throwing favorites out of 58 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 2: where It's like, do we like these favorites? We want 59 00:03:40,840 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 2: to take these guys and I'm with you, like I 60 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: always feel way better taking a dog with the points, 61 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 2: and like this week, I I love all dogs. I 62 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 2: think there might be one or two favorites I like, 63 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 2: and I think people know. When we talked Sunday night, 64 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 2: it was just there's a lot of really ugly dogs 65 00:03:56,040 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 2: this week. And historically after Thanksgiving week, all the public 66 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 2: getting fat off all these favorites. Usually it's a bad, bad, 67 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,360 Speaker 2: bad week for them a week after last week. So 68 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 2: stay the course, Chad. We won't change. We will keep 69 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: doing We got us here. We will go with dogs 70 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:15,559 Speaker 2: this week as well. 71 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 1: We got to be us. We've been doing this a 72 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: long time together, you and I. It's like a marriage. 73 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,280 Speaker 1: We will talk about the changes we're going to make 74 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: in our relationship. We will acknowledge the potentiality of those changes, 75 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 1: and then we're going to fall back into our old 76 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: habits and love each other for it. As a reminder, 77 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five. 78 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 1: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you 79 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,799 Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every 80 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:43,919 Speaker 1: day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets 81 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 1: to give you a chance to win more bet three 82 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: sixty five Boost specific markets your winnings and even parlays, 83 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: and they don't stop there. Keep an eye out for 84 00:04:51,440 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 1: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost. 85 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: Check out the Boost and see why It's never ordinary. 86 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: Bet three six five must be twenty one or older 87 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or 88 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 1: eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight 89 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,119 Speaker 1: hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. 90 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: Conditioners restrictions apply as a reminder. Contest roundup Week twelve 91 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: saw one hundred and three entries finish five and oh 92 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 1: in the contest. Congrats to our first place winner, a 93 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 1: J J zero one one. Enjoy the cash. The Producer's 94 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: Cup of War goes to Ray Finkel seventy seven for 95 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 1: finishing dead fucking last and the Week twelve contest going 96 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 1: on to five, missing the tiebreaker by one hundred and 97 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 1: ninety yards. Ray Finkel, email Matt Mitchell at podcast at 98 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize. Thanks 99 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,919 Speaker 1: for playing. Week thirteen in our contest is live. The 100 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 1: tiebreaker total passing yards on Monday Night Football good luck. 101 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:58,720 Speaker 1: Everybody all right? In our futures, We've talked about a 102 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 1: lot of them. Most of them are get at this point. 103 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,600 Speaker 1: The couple that are alive. Tyreek Hill to lead the 104 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: league in receiving yards. We had that at nine to one. 105 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 1: He's now all alone in first by two hundred yards. 106 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: Keenan Allen is second. The most irrelevant season of big 107 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: numbers in wide receiver history. I think he's got ninety 108 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: seven catches and nearly twelve hundred receiving yards. Nobody would know. 109 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: Jalen Carter, we had at Rookie of the Year, defensive 110 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 1: Rookie of the year seven to one. He had a 111 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: black field goal on Sunday. He's still the odds on favorite. 112 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: Before we get to the week thirteen lines, small bit 113 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: of housekeeping on our Sunday recap show, I incorrectly said 114 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: Tennessee was our survivor pick I forgot we switched to Minnesota. 115 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 1: But I was corrected by our producer after the show. 116 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 1: I was also corrected by a very surly listener named Bill, 117 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: who admonished me with a message, you either made a 118 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: mistake or just decided to chalk it up as a win. 119 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: Show Some integrity and own it on your podcast? Really 120 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: as poor. Meanwhile, I also really received a very lovely 121 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 1: message from a listener named Dan Rancus who just pointed 122 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: out the air and was not an actual dick about it. 123 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: It's like we're the most transparent fucking podcast about betting 124 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: there is. We literally list everything in the app. We 125 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: talk about every game that we bet, We talk about 126 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 1: the wins and the losses. I mentioned the record and 127 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: every Tuesday show. Why are you so mad and thinking 128 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: we wouldn't have the integrity? I just made a mistake. 129 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 1: I read my notes wrong. Let's move on. 130 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, no fear of people. I put it on Twitter. 131 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 2: I went fifty to fifty. I did two contests on 132 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 2: Dobbs to contest on will Levis. Luckily the two that 133 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: were on will Levis came through. So yeah, it stinks 134 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 2: we lost the Dobbs ones, but still live. Still live 135 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 2: in two big money contests, so we're not We're not 136 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: totally dead yet. I did switch on the show to 137 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 2: Minnesota at the very end. Dan, sorry to everyone that 138 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 2: followed it. Yeah, that was that was one that should 139 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 2: they should have wont on They could have won, but 140 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 2: they didn't. 141 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: All Right, we're wrapping up November. We are on to 142 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: week thirteen. 143 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 3: Super Bowl. Greens that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker 144 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 3: and fade, and the autumn shadows and hopes that were 145 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 3: high in the heat of September, and will and die 146 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 3: in the chill of November. 147 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: Seattle at Dallas Thursday Night football. Dallas is an eight 148 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Look, the Seahawks have been 149 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: truly awful since that Ravens game. Yeah, really a lot 150 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: of problems scoring points. Gino. I'm assuming he'll be a 151 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: little bit healthier with the ten days off since the 152 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving Day game. I can see why the number is 153 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: what it is, especially with what's up. 154 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 2: Right. 155 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: You're right, Yeah, you better correct me because otherwise Bill 156 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 1: is going to drop in him out of God, Bill, 157 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,599 Speaker 1: I am so. I can see why the number is 158 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,839 Speaker 1: what it is. With Dallas blowing out in Seattle getting 159 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: blown out. Normally we'd want to fade the team that 160 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: just did the blowing out. Yeah, but this Seattle Seattle 161 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: team shows no signs of life and Dallas is in 162 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:15,560 Speaker 1: a spot that they love. Big favorites at home, Dack 163 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: thirty eleven and one against the spread. As a favorite 164 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: of six points for more. 165 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, and then we talked coming to the season, I 166 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 2: thought of all the teams that could have a step 167 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 2: back because of the quarterback position, we said it was Gino, 168 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 2: just because the second half of last year, when teams 169 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 2: seemed like they kind of figured it out Gino, they 170 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 2: started struggling to the CEA Yhawks. And this year, you know, 171 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 2: some games he'll play well. I mean they've had some 172 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 2: big wins. They had that big win against Detroit I 173 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:46,199 Speaker 2: think that went no overtime. Early in the season, you know, 174 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 2: Gino was kind of getting away with it. Her're like, 175 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:50,839 Speaker 2: you know what, maybe he maybe can overcome these teams 176 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 2: scheming against him. And like you just said, he's really 177 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 2: come back down to earth. I mean last week they 178 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 2: were never in it against the forty nine ers. I 179 00:09:58,280 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 2: mean they had to pick six and they still love 180 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: by double digits. They're just they're being outclassed. And that's 181 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 2: kind of life when you have a guy who's good. 182 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 2: Gino's good, but he's not that upper echelon, Like he's 183 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 2: not a top twelve guy, and you're playing these really 184 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 2: good teams and these really good defenses. You kind of 185 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 2: need that and Dallas is a really good defense. So 186 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 2: if this wasn't a Thursday, Chad, you know I feel 187 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 2: about Thursdays. Thursdays, I usually like the home team, especially Chalky. 188 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 2: I want to go Seahawks year and maybe I'll just wait. 189 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:35,319 Speaker 2: This could get the ten. I'm seeing a lot of 190 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 2: books show nine and a half right now in the 191 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 2: Seahawks this. If this gets the ten, I would come 192 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 2: on the Seahawks. But at eight and a half the 193 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 2: book Chad's looking at, I probably would go Dallas here. 194 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:45,679 Speaker 2: If you want that number, I totally get it. But 195 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 2: for me, I have no bet on this game. Probably 196 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 2: just do another primetime under. I mean I can't stop 197 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 2: hitting these primetime undershad so Yeah, if you're looking for 198 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 2: the easy, lazy bet, bet on the Dallas defense, go 199 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,439 Speaker 2: with the primetime under. I guess. 200 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 1: By the way, the three six five is at nine 201 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: right now, and the total on this game is forty 202 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 1: six and a half. Yeah, I mean the problem is 203 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: Dallas could run up the score. We saw what they 204 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: did against Washington and we're going to talk about the 205 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: Commanders later in the show. It's a tricky one, a 206 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: real tricky one. Yeah, kind of a pass all the 207 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: way around. It's gonna be a good night to you know, 208 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:24,719 Speaker 1: watch a movie with your significant other and tell them 209 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 1: how much you love them instead of it because you're watching. 210 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: You're doing that instead of washing football. All right, let's 211 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: talk about these fucking Chargers. Chargers on the road at 212 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 1: New England right now. The number for this game with 213 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: the Chargers on the freaking road, I can't believe we're 214 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 1: even talking about this. They are six point favorites at 215 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: New England. I feel like, as much as we can 216 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: in the Internet age, we swore a blood oath we 217 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: would not bet on the Patriots anymore, like it doesn't matter, 218 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 1: which almost doesn't. We're gonna stick to that because you 219 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: believe in my quarterback. There are three levels of bad 220 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: quarterbacks when you're betting, and Mac Jones has reached the 221 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: level of Zach Wilson, who has now been benched. You 222 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: don't bet on Mac Jones no matter what the number, 223 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:12,319 Speaker 1: it doesn't matter because if your quarterback can't execute, they 224 00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: can't score any points at all. I don't believe Bailey 225 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 1: Zappi is any better Bailey Zappi on Sunday Night, though 226 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: as a better you were leaning Patriots five and a half. 227 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: You could argue Brandon Stalely is into your touchdown road favorite, 228 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 1: no match for Bill Belichick. Yeah, that was when Bill 229 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 1: Belichick actually had players on his team. And I can 230 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 1: give you some stay Ats favorite stats if you'd like, 231 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:39,319 Speaker 1: but I want to hear what we have to say. 232 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:41,520 Speaker 2: Well, I don't know if this is an Evan stat, 233 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 2: but there's only two games this year. A team is 234 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 2: lost and they've held their opponent to ten points or less. 235 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:48,440 Speaker 2: And it's the Patriots and back to back weeks they 236 00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 2: have back to back weeks, why held the team they 237 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,439 Speaker 2: played against to ten points or less and they've lost 238 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 2: both those games. I think that perfectly summarizes this Patriots 239 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 2: team and what they are this season. And you nailed it. 240 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 2: Mac Jones clearly broken. If you go back and watch 241 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 2: those interceptions, all ribal like doesn't even look like he 242 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 2: played in college like he looks like yeah, like looks 243 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 2: like a total total mismatch for him. So totally get it. 244 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 2: I got to take the six. I don't care if 245 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 2: it's the worst team in football. I can't back the 246 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 2: Chargers getting more than six. This is a broken team. 247 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:26,959 Speaker 2: Their offense is terrible, it's all just terrible for the Chargers. 248 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 2: But yeah, no, I gave my word. We would never 249 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 2: put these guys in the same thing. We're a Carolina like, 250 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 2: no matter what, I'm fading Carolina. Maybe that changes now 251 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: they fired Frank, but the Patriots have made zero moves. 252 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 2: I don't care if they make a QB change. That 253 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:41,959 Speaker 2: doesn't really do anything for me at this point with 254 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 2: this team. So I don't feel comfortable making this one 255 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 2: of my five biggest bets of the week, so I'll 256 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 2: pass on it. 257 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: And I promise we're not putting the Patriots. Yeah, we're 258 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: not going to put him in the five, but betting 259 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 1: dogs in low total games the NFL underdogs in games 260 00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: with total below forty two sixty percent against the spread 261 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen, including thirty six, twenty five and two 262 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: this season, So similarly, this week, it's a low light 263 00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: real of patheticness. Cleveland, Arizona, Carolina, the Jets, New England, Cincinnati. 264 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: There is one team on that list that I feel 265 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: might end up in our five, and it's not the 266 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,960 Speaker 1: New England Patriots, So we will move on. Detroit at 267 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: New Orleans. Right now, New Orleans is a four point 268 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: underdog at home. I can't recall. Can you remind me? 269 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: On Sunday night? Did you say you liked New Orleans? 270 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: Was it a bad dream that I had. I took 271 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 1: a lot of melatonin on Sunday night. Just go sleep. 272 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: What did we say? 273 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 2: No, I told you to grab the minus three and 274 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 2: a half in the lock. That's just a case. The 275 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 2: line went way up and as it moved as which 276 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 2: I thought, I thought this would be six by now. Honestly, 277 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 2: like I mean, one of my worst calls, Derek Carr 278 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 2: in the red zone. It's just a total shit show. 279 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 2: This guy is just horrible. Once he gets in the 280 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 2: red zone between the twenties, he looks like what I 281 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 2: believe he is, which is a good quarterback that can 282 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 2: move the ball and make good reads. But once he 283 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 2: gets in that red zone, he just gets so flustered 284 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 2: and he's so bad. Detroit's the complete opposite. Like they 285 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 2: get to the red zone, it's like, we know exactly 286 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 2: what we want to do here. We're gonna run it 287 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: down your throat for two plays and if that doesn't work, 288 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 2: I'll throw it to my tight end or Armine Saint Brown. 289 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 2: It's like it's just all working for Detroit, and I know, 290 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 2: like I said last week, my big thing for them 291 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 2: is they're coming off such a bad loss. That's why 292 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: I like them here where it's like you had a 293 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 2: bad loss, you got to sit on it for whatever 294 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 2: it is, ten to eleven days. Because they played on Thursday, 295 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 2: you expect. I mean, if this is going to be 296 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 2: the team we talk about it's gonna win their division, 297 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 2: be a playoff team, that they should come out and 298 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 2: just absolutely destroy this same team. You're fired up all 299 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 2: week and you take out all that frustration on this team. 300 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 2: It's a chalky pick right now now. As confident I 301 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,360 Speaker 2: was someday and night with it because I really did 302 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 2: think it would be six by now on Tuesday. So interesting, 303 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 2: it hasn't moved as much as these other games, but 304 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 2: I still like Detroit. I'd probably still take them a 305 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 2: minus four. That's that's good value for them. 306 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 1: Hello Detroit, I'm gonna give you some analysis that is 307 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: going to make you feel better. So you know, yesterday 308 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 1: I was doing my research. Everyone likes to talk about 309 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 1: the Saints d as if they've been something special. So 310 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: it's really their coverage defense that has been good. And 311 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: then this past week they were freaking terrible against Desmond Ritter. 312 00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: You know what they're missing Marshawn Lattimore, who is now 313 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: on IR The Saints pass rush great according to Pro 314 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 1: Football Focus, bottom of the league, and they are middle 315 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: of the road against the run, and they're playing one 316 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: of the better run teams in the league. I could 317 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 1: easily see Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson decide and we're 318 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: going to run it down the Saints throat because they 319 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 1: can't really defend against the run, and on thecasional times 320 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: they need to go play action and throw it over 321 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 1: the middle to Laporta or to a mom ross Saint Brown. 322 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: It's not very good coverage. That is missing their best 323 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: defensive back. I kind of don't mind the Lions here, 324 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: especially at four. Yeah, Arizona, pitt My kids want to 325 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: have a good course. The Cardinals rush defense is so bad, 326 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: worse than the NFL across all the stats that matter. 327 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: Here's what makes me nervous about backing Pittsburgh. Kyler's ability 328 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 1: to scramble basically makes every time he goes out of 329 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,199 Speaker 1: the pocket a first down. So betting on Pittsburgh here 330 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:34,119 Speaker 1: it makes me a little antsy. 331 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, but lucky for Pittsburgh. They see Lamar twice a year, 332 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 2: so they know exactly what to do against the style quarterback. 333 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 2: And this number is huge. Why is this not three 334 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 2: and a half four? I feel like they would have 335 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 2: got the same amount of money on both sides if 336 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 2: they'd kept it down there, but they obviously jacked it up. 337 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 2: I think it was six. I mean, you talked her, 338 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:54,360 Speaker 2: maybe it was five and a half, but I got 339 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,560 Speaker 2: up to six. Now it's come back down, So the 340 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 2: pros think it's good. They think the number where it 341 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 2: should be. Like Pittsburgh, I liked the number. I like 342 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 2: that fact they have two running backs that both could 343 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 2: do really well against this Cardinals team. And we talked 344 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,159 Speaker 2: last week a little bit about the change they made 345 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 2: at OC. They didn't get the points last week, but 346 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 2: they got the yards like they had over four hundred yards. 347 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,400 Speaker 2: And I know that doesn't sound like a big deal, 348 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 2: but it is to me in the sense that that 349 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 2: gives belief to Kenny and a lot of the other 350 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 2: guys in the offense they can do it, and that 351 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: they weren't the problem and they needed a change because 352 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:27,679 Speaker 2: since he's not a terrible defense, I mean that defense 353 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 2: was playing hard yeah, yeah, and they were still moving 354 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 2: the ball. They're much better than Arizona's defense. So I'm 355 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 2: trying to best I cannot the react to it, but 356 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 2: we might be getting value your chat because the books 357 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,879 Speaker 2: maybe they haven't caught up to this new style of 358 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's offense. So you could technically be finding value here 359 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 2: on Pittsburgh. Again, no bets on it yet, but definitely 360 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 2: a line to keep your eye on. 361 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: Here's what makes me nervous about that number. The Steelers 362 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 1: going to want to run the ball. They know the 363 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 1: same thing that we knew that the Rams knew. That 364 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: lends itself to longer drives, that lends itself to lower 365 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 1: scoring for a team that is already low scoring, and 366 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: that means the back door is always open with a 367 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 1: team that can be sort of unpredictable because of what 368 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: Kyler Murray can do. 369 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:15,679 Speaker 2: No, it's totally fair. Yeah, that actually does scare me 370 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,000 Speaker 2: off the court Pittsburgh a little bit thinking about that. 371 00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,400 Speaker 1: I'm crossing it off. Then this next game, however, Atlanta 372 00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:28,199 Speaker 1: at New York Jets. Right now, this number is Jets 373 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: plus two and a half at home. Listen. It makes 374 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: me sick to say it I think the Jets are 375 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: the side here. 376 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's a fear of what do we beten 377 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 2: into here chat, We've been into a team that simply 378 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 2: quit because that's a quitting game. Last week, you got 379 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 2: embarrassed in a standalone game at home. That was so 380 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 2: embarrassing as a Jets backer last week. So yeah, the 381 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 2: values on the Jets. I mean, Desmond Ritter guy is 382 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 2: an incredible athlete. He's a bad quarterback, and last week 383 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 2: it should be a highly real for him for the 384 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 2: rest of his life. He had to throw off his 385 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:04,920 Speaker 2: back foot to Robinson for a touchdown that was like 386 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 2: one of the best passes I've ever seen. Like the 387 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,439 Speaker 2: guy had a blitzer in his face, threw off his 388 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 2: back foot before Bejhon even broke into the route like open, 389 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 2: and it was right on target in the bread basket downfield. 390 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 2: And it's like, Okay, this guy is just an incredible athlete, 391 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 2: that's what he is. But he's just not a quarterback. 392 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 2: So give us a three. I've seen a couple of 393 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 2: books pop three and then they've gone back to two 394 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 2: and a half. Give us the Jets of three and 395 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:29,959 Speaker 2: Jets of three and a half in contest, would he'd 396 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 2: be even better. But I hate the Jets. Man. I 397 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 2: know our fans too. They're not going to back us here. 398 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,639 Speaker 2: They're not gonna to bet this team right now. The 399 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 2: current number two and a half no play, but three 400 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:40,880 Speaker 2: three and a half. Yes, I like the Jets. 401 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 1: I think it'll get to three. All of the money 402 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:46,080 Speaker 1: is coming in on the Falcons right now, so I 403 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: think it's going to move. And like you said, that's 404 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: why I. 405 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,600 Speaker 2: Don't get why I came down. It's like, who, what 406 00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 2: asshole professional came and was like, yeah, I'm taking the 407 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 2: Jets here. It's like, dude, just wait. 408 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 1: I look at it differently, like they just came off 409 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: a stretch where they played justin Herbert, Josh Allen and 410 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: two in three of the past four weeks. They're going 411 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: to look at how bad Desmond Ritter is and they're 412 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 1: gonna think to myself themselves, what a fucking relief. The 413 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 1: total in this game is thirty four totals of thirty 414 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: seven or less twenty two four and one to the under. 415 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty thirty eight or less thirty two to 416 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 1: eleven and one to the under. I think there's some 417 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: factors here that might might go our way Indianapolis visiting Tennessee. 418 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: Tennessee's a two point underdog. Indianapolis right now seventh in 419 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 1: the AFC in the playoff race, so they are in 420 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: just ahead of Houston, just ahead of Denver, who are 421 00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,199 Speaker 1: playing each other this week. I feel like, normally this 422 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:42,640 Speaker 1: is a smash Mike Rabel spot, Don't forget, Don't forget 423 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,880 Speaker 1: Rabel twenty five and twenty seven straight up as a dog, 424 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 1: one of the most profitable coaches the past twenty years. 425 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,399 Speaker 1: As a dog is a home dog twelve eight and 426 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:57,000 Speaker 1: one No. Twelve to eight, straight up and against the spread. 427 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 1: So like, I think, I like the Titans here. 428 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,679 Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta do it home divisional dog Vrabel. I 429 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 2: mean that too is long gone. 430 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,959 Speaker 1: What is it right now? Why are my numbers not updated? 431 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 1: You're right, it's now down to one. 432 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 2: It's because I'm moving the numbers, baby. No, But really, 433 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,160 Speaker 2: I like that was one of the bigger bets I've 434 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,879 Speaker 2: made since I've gotten back in Jersey, Like got off 435 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 2: the airplane, went right to the book, made a couple 436 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 2: of big bets and one of them was Tennessee. Just 437 00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 2: loved the spot, Like you're getting Minshew Outdoors. This Colt team, 438 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 2: I don't know how they're not way up there in 439 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 2: the luck rank. I feel like they're one of the 440 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,679 Speaker 2: luckier teams this season. They just have had a lot 441 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,560 Speaker 2: of things bounced their way. Tennessee is the opposite in 442 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 2: the sense that you know, they've had the grill Levis 443 00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 2: growing pains. But like you'll see these flashes every now 444 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 2: and then, like that game last week where it's like 445 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 2: he's in the pocket and he makes these throws that 446 00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 2: are like really nice on target and pushing the ball downfield, 447 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 2: and then the next play will be like, you know, 448 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 2: third and two and he can't do a little dump 449 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 2: off to a guy on the backfield. It's it's definitely experienced, 450 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 2: betten this guy Will Levis check. I'll play you that much. 451 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: But yeah, he can freaking sling the ball. 452 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, he's just I don't know if he's an idiot 453 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 2: or he just uh, there's just like little things he 454 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 2: does where it's like, Okay, I see now why he 455 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 2: was a second round pick, because like everyone else, after 456 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 2: that first game, it's like, this kid's got crazy arm talent. 457 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,199 Speaker 2: How did he not go in the first round? And 458 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 2: now we're a couple of weeks in here, it's like, Okay, 459 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 2: this guy makes sense the second round he's got obviously 460 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 2: he's got some weaknesses, but yeah, in this matchup here, 461 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 2: such a good number. You know, this was gonna be 462 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 2: one of my favorite teaser games. Sadly it's come down, 463 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 2: like we just talked about it, Sat plus one of 464 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 2: a lot of books. If the flips me and Chat 465 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 2: tries to stay away from those. We don't like the 466 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 2: dogs that flip the Favorites. That's not been good to 467 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 2: us so well. It did work out last week with 468 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 2: the Rams, but usually it's not the best spot to 469 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 2: be in. But looking at this one, yeah, if you 470 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 2: can get the one and a half, we can get 471 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 2: plus one and a half in our contest. We'll wind 472 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 2: up on Tennessee for sure on Sunday. 473 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 1: As a reminder, you can catch every episode of The 474 00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 1: Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube right now, 475 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,200 Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a light and subscribe to 476 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. All right, very interesting game 477 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 1: here Miami at Washington, Washington right now. Updated line plus 478 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: nine and a half. Look, this is when you talked 479 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 1: about Sunday night when it was nine, now it's at 480 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 1: nine and a half. I do feel like, if you 481 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: like Washington, this is going to get to ten. Their 482 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,440 Speaker 1: defense is truly awful, especially since they got rid of 483 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 1: Chase Young and Montes Sweat. They had that dead cat 484 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 1: bounce against the Patriots and then they've just been dreadful. 485 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,320 Speaker 1: But the Dolphins do not dominate on the road the 486 00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: way they have at home against bad teams. And we've 487 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 1: seen the early pro money on Washington teams who lose 488 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: by seventeen or more playing a team that won by 489 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: seventeen or more the previous week sixty percent against the 490 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years. That includes Seattle, Washington, Cleveland. 491 00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 2: Diamond says, take the Washington Commanders, we do what. 492 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: Wow. 493 00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 2: I will not be letting this get to ten. I refuse. 494 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,679 Speaker 2: I will smash whatever book hangs at ten on this. 495 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 2: I just nailed it. It's yes Commander's defense. They are 496 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 2: bad now since they've moved all these players offensively, I 497 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 2: could see them being able to stay in this one. 498 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 2: So looking at this matchup, the splits between two at 499 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 2: home on the road, they're not that egregious, but they 500 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 2: are a difference like it is a big deal. If 501 00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 2: you mix in some of this north Northeast weather, like 502 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 2: if it's a little cold, a little wet, that also 503 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 2: is gonna favor this this Washington team where everything Miami 504 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,479 Speaker 2: does is based on speed and deception, Like they just 505 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 2: they make you put your head on a swivel and 506 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,200 Speaker 2: making guys move with the line and then just bring 507 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: you down the field. They're a team that they don't 508 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,359 Speaker 2: want to be playing this this Northeast foot but they 509 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,360 Speaker 2: don't want to be in these cold, drag it out, 510 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,919 Speaker 2: sloppy kind of games. And Washington could pull teams into 511 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 2: the mudd here, like they got two really good running backs. 512 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 2: You know, there's there's a little things that pop up 513 00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 2: here where you want to take Washington. Then you mix 514 00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 2: in this is the December game. It's like, man, we 515 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 2: got to do This is such a big number for 516 00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 2: a washingt team that is bad. Are they really a 517 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,840 Speaker 2: ten point nine points worse than Miami? No, that is 518 00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 2: such an overreaction about the public and movement of this line. 519 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 2: So I mean, I'm not saying I got three points 520 00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 2: of value on this line, but yeah, like I make 521 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 2: this six and a half, it's nine and a half. 522 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 2: That's a lot of value right now for Washington. So 523 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,919 Speaker 2: Jack del Rio is not the problem to me. But 524 00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 2: I kept saying that he's a dinosaur. The head coach 525 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 2: is a dinosaur. It could, but it's in the ass 526 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 2: like it did in that Dallas game. Like what was it, 527 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 2: fourth and two and they're on Dallas is forty and 528 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 2: Ron Rivera punted and the game was just over. That's 529 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 2: what I mean, Like, the guy is just a dinosaur. 530 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,800 Speaker 2: We're old Ron. When I've gone for it there, it's like, dude, 531 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: you're a thirteen point underdog, Like you're not punting when 532 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 2: it's fourth and two and you're in Dallas' territory in 533 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 2: such a close game early on there. So yeah, I'll 534 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 2: give it one more week to Ron before he's on 535 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 2: my banded list. I wait for his ass to get fired. 536 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:35,000 Speaker 2: But got a bag Washington here in this spot, all. 537 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: Right, Well this is it. By the way, home dogs 538 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,439 Speaker 1: are seven or more twenty one, nine and one against 539 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 1: the spread since the start of last year. It's interesting, 540 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,880 Speaker 1: like we're going through these games right now Washington and Tennessee. 541 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 1: So far those are like games that we probably feel 542 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 1: good about. The Jets might end up on our list 543 00:27:57,359 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: by virtue of not having many other ones. A couple 544 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 1: more games that could get on there. Denver ed Houston 545 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: Houston's three and a half. I think the cat is 546 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,640 Speaker 1: out of the bag on the Texans. This line exploded. 547 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:15,360 Speaker 1: It was a two and a half Sunday night, three 548 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 1: and a half by Monday morning. Love the Broncos. They've 549 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 1: been getting a lot of luck. As a Texans backer, 550 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 1: I liked it at two and a half. I don't 551 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 1: like it at three and a half. These guys that 552 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 1: are eight and nine in the playoff race, just behind Indye. 553 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: So I know you've got a strong feeling about Denver here. 554 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll take Denver here with the movement on the line. 555 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:44,320 Speaker 2: Too much movement to me, Houston, They're good, but you 556 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 2: keep seeing these every other week. You keep seeing these 557 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 2: little things right where it's like this is a young 558 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 2: immature team with a young immature quarterback and a young 559 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 2: immature head coach, and they do little things that they 560 00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 2: helped keep these teams in these close games where it's like, 561 00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,800 Speaker 2: you know, the mental errors and stuff they do. CG 562 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 2: is so good. It's overcome a lot of that this season, 563 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,520 Speaker 2: like his big playability, his ability to move in the 564 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 2: pocket and get outside and put the ball downfield. It's 565 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 2: been so impressive, but it's it's Cgs a favorite. It's 566 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 2: just it's not profitable about him as a favorite. And 567 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 2: the fact this line's moved so much. I'm honestly shocked 568 00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 2: by it because I feel like Denver's played well for 569 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 2: multiple weeks yere and it's not like it's not been 570 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:32,080 Speaker 2: public games like these have been games on primetime TV 571 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,719 Speaker 2: and even that Vikings game where they're kicking all those 572 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 2: field goals. You know, I shouldn't have baught so much 573 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 2: into their red zone struggles. It's just like teams have 574 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:44,719 Speaker 2: those kind of games where it's just like it's not 575 00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 2: clicking in the red zone. Of course, the next week 576 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 2: they just dominated Cleveland's incredible defense in the red zone. 577 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 2: It's like, that's just how football is. It's so weak 578 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 2: the week. So Denver catching three and a half in Houston, 579 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 2: what am I supposed to do? How do I not 580 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,200 Speaker 2: take this number? So this is the classic the number 581 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:04,560 Speaker 2: de side where we me and Chad go if this 582 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,640 Speaker 2: is two and a half, we probably would have been 583 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:08,560 Speaker 2: happy to take Houston, Like guy would have been pretty 584 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 2: good value on them at home. It shifted though now 585 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:12,800 Speaker 2: it's up to three and a half. I'll take the 586 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 2: value on Denver here and I hope it keeps going up, 587 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 2: Like get us to four and a half. This is 588 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 2: a no brainer play in the contest three and a half. 589 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:21,959 Speaker 2: Maybe I give a little, Paul, it's just because I'm 590 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 2: a little scared of CJ. 591 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 1: I'm a little scared of CJ. I'm even more scared 592 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 1: of Russell Wilson after the first fifteen players. And look, 593 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,440 Speaker 1: we've talked about Russell Wilson. I think he's obviously played 594 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 1: much better. But I have a lot of I put, 595 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 1: I can pause. I'm not sure I'm the buyer on 596 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 1: Denver three and a half in the contest contest, it's 597 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 1: getting so it's it's nut crunch time right in the 598 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 1: contest Simon, This holiday season is about more than just 599 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:02,000 Speaker 1: being mad at the New York Jets. It's about finding nutritious, 600 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:06,600 Speaker 1: convenient meals to keep you energized for merriment all month long. 601 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,360 Speaker 1: Wow Factor, America's number one ready to eat meal delivery service, 602 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: can help you fuel up fast for breakfast, lunch, and 603 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: dinner with chef prepared, dietician approved ready to eat meals 604 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 1: straight to your door. You'll save time, eat well, stay 605 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: on track while tracking. All the gambling to do is 606 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 1: on your list. Too busy with holiday plans to cook, 607 00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 1: but want to make sure you're eating well. With Factor, 608 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: skip the extra trip to the grocery store and the chopping, prepping, 609 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 1: and cleaning up two Factors, fresh never frozen meals are 610 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 1: ready in just two minutes. All you have to do 611 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 1: is heat and enjoy. So Simon says, listen to us 612 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,880 Speaker 1: and give Factor a shot to enjoy eating well over 613 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,120 Speaker 1: the holidays without the hassle. Choose your meals delivered to 614 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,240 Speaker 1: your door, ready in just two minutes, no prep, no mess. 615 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: Our listeners can head to Factor meals dot com slash 616 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: favorites fifty and use code favorites fifty to get fifty 617 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: percent off. That's code favorites fifty at Factor meals dot com. 618 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 1: Slash favorites fifty to get fifty percent off. Okay, new 619 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,800 Speaker 1: coach in Carolina. Caroline is at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay 620 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 1: right now looks like they are five and a half 621 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:18,680 Speaker 1: point favorites. Such an interesting team. Baker gets like this 622 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: close for those listening, I'm holding my fingers very close together. 623 00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 1: It's weird how often he's right there, only to not 624 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,520 Speaker 1: be able to close it. Four one score losses this year, 625 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 1: by the way, two of those losses that were not 626 00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:35,600 Speaker 1: one scores by two touchdowns to the Eagles and the Niners, 627 00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: the best teams in the NFC. They were in at 628 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 1: the entire game like fluky fluky ways to not cover. 629 00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,000 Speaker 1: Carolina has got a new coach, This team's in disarray. 630 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 1: Their best pick is going to the Bears, who need 631 00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,200 Speaker 1: to draft a quarterback. We can talk about that next week. 632 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,280 Speaker 1: What do you think I'll pass? 633 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 2: I got nothing on it, don't even care about it. 634 00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 2: I'm not even to research this game this week. 635 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: I'll just quote TV game. 636 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, totally pass on it. I have no feel for 637 00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 2: this Panthers team. And I don't know if a coaching 638 00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 2: change is gonna make the difference. It just it all 639 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 2: starts at the top. If you have shitty ownership, it 640 00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,520 Speaker 2: just trickles down. And right now Carolina has one of 641 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 2: the worst owners in all football. So a billionaire guy 642 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 2: comes in, a guy who's been successful his whole life, 643 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 2: and he thinks he knows what's what, and he doesn't 644 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 2: know ball he doesn't know how to evaluate players, doesn't 645 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,960 Speaker 2: know to hire a coaches. I mean, someone puts some 646 00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 2: crazy stat He's got two coaches, he's paying well over 647 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 2: twenty million to each, and they fired both of them 648 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,720 Speaker 2: after a cup of coffee. It's just it's a train 649 00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,160 Speaker 2: wreck in Carolina. Yeah, Bears, Bears fans, you can shoot 650 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,040 Speaker 2: on your gym all you want. He made the perfect 651 00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 2: trade at that draft and just set you guys up 652 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 2: for the future in so many ways. I mean, it's 653 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,600 Speaker 2: just I can't get over it. I can't be about 654 00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:50,960 Speaker 2: to say this. I might end up on Bucks in 655 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 2: our survival pool. That's just that's how bad I think 656 00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 2: this Panthers team is. 657 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 1: Listen, if we're gonna have bucks in the survivor pool, 658 00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: can you make sure to email Bill and also just 659 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 1: be very very clear about where we're going to land, 660 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:03,600 Speaker 1: because we don't want to make any mistakes on that. 661 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 2: God damn you, Bill. 662 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 1: We talked about the marquee matchup of the week, San 663 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: Francisco at Philadelphia. Philadelphia bet three sixty five is still 664 00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 1: a two and a half, but a lot of places 665 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,839 Speaker 1: are at three. What a swing like? When we were 666 00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,040 Speaker 1: going on air on Sunday night, before the Bill's Eagles 667 00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:25,600 Speaker 1: game had ended. This line was San Francisco plus two 668 00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: and a half. In the middle of the show, it 669 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 1: went down to plus one. I tried to bet it 670 00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,279 Speaker 1: at plus one, and the odds changed as I was 671 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,799 Speaker 1: making the bet to San Francisco minus one. Now it's 672 00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,440 Speaker 1: two and a half. And that is We've talked about this. 673 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:44,280 Speaker 1: We just taped a Green Dye Daily segment. That's wise 674 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:50,600 Speaker 1: guy money. That's moving it and like it is crazy 675 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:55,719 Speaker 1: how much love there is for this Niners team. But 676 00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:57,080 Speaker 1: they are really freaking good. 677 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:00,400 Speaker 3: Yeah. 678 00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,880 Speaker 2: No, they're really good. And they're healthy and that's probably 679 00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:06,719 Speaker 2: the difference here. They're healthy. The Eagles aren't healthy. But 680 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,800 Speaker 2: at what point does this move too much? Chat is 681 00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 2: talking about this line has moved five and a half 682 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:16,400 Speaker 2: points now, like five and a half points. Yeah. So 683 00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,759 Speaker 2: that's the only thing that's scares me because deep down 684 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,400 Speaker 2: I'm getting Hurts at home plus three. It's a no 685 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 2: brainer pick. It's like getting Mahomes the under the three, right. 686 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,120 Speaker 2: It's like, even though it didn't work the previous week 687 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,040 Speaker 2: against the Eagles, if I got catches the ball, that's 688 00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:34,960 Speaker 2: a nice bet on Mahomes and same thing goes here 689 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,720 Speaker 2: with Hurts, where it's like it might not win this week. 690 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 2: But if you've been betting Hurts at home, especially on 691 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 2: the money line, he's only had one loss in two 692 00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 2: years at home, It's it's crazy, But that's just that, 693 00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,520 Speaker 2: that's fact, Like, that's what the number is. So it's 694 00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 2: the team that even if we're down twenty four to 695 00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,640 Speaker 2: ten in the fourth quarter, you still feel like you 696 00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,560 Speaker 2: have a chance to cover with this number. This Eagles team, 697 00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:04,279 Speaker 2: they just never give up. They never die. So yeah, 698 00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,640 Speaker 2: I'm I bet it. I've taken I've already bet this 699 00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:11,720 Speaker 2: again for a little amounts. If this ends up three 700 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 2: three and a half, man, that's gonna be hard for 701 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 2: me to pass on, especially where Lane Johnson could play 702 00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,319 Speaker 2: like it's just he basically has an injury where if 703 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 2: he wakes up and his lower bodies locked up, that's 704 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,399 Speaker 2: why he sat out right. If he can't move right, 705 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,719 Speaker 2: he's not gonna play like he's committed to that. He 706 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,600 Speaker 2: says he doesn't want to risk hurting Hurts because he's hurt. 707 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:33,959 Speaker 2: If he wakes up and he's feeling good and Lane 708 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:36,960 Speaker 2: Johnson can play, I guarantee you this number it sounds 709 00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,000 Speaker 2: crazy to say if I guarantee this number would drop just 710 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:41,600 Speaker 2: because he's that important to the Eagles and all the 711 00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,120 Speaker 2: trends with him in the lineup and out of the 712 00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,239 Speaker 2: lineup are a big deal. So yeah, if you want 713 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:50,120 Speaker 2: to grab the value right now and grab the Eagles 714 00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 2: plus three, I'm on it with you. But the pro's 715 00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,160 Speaker 2: note man, like, this is very telling that this has 716 00:36:56,280 --> 00:37:00,200 Speaker 2: moved so much, especially such at high profile game, aim 717 00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,439 Speaker 2: that this will be pretty crazy, pretty crazy it's moved 718 00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,360 Speaker 2: this much. So again, I'm not going crazy on it. 719 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 2: I need to talk to people, figure out who's betting this, 720 00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,359 Speaker 2: groups are betting this, why they're moving it while they're 721 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:13,840 Speaker 2: so all in on this forty nine Ers team. But 722 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 2: I kind of I feel like I kind of know 723 00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 2: where It's like they're the healthier team. This is a 724 00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,760 Speaker 2: spot they've had marked on their calendar for over a year. 725 00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 2: Like we saw how the Eagles played against the Chiefs. 726 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:27,239 Speaker 2: Like you're pissed off when a team knocks you out 727 00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 2: from the previous year. That's just these are growing men 728 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 2: who remember that kind of stuff. It's got to be 729 00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:33,640 Speaker 2: the same for the Chiefs, I mean for the forty 730 00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,439 Speaker 2: nine ers, Like, think of all the shit they talked 731 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,120 Speaker 2: the whole offseason. Man if our coach, if our QB 732 00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,719 Speaker 2: didn't get hurt, like you know, we would have won 733 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,960 Speaker 2: that game. They got lucky, all all those things like 734 00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:46,919 Speaker 2: that's that's real. Like those fore Niners players really believe 735 00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,879 Speaker 2: they're the better team, and this to them. I think 736 00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,319 Speaker 2: Chattery talked about it. It's like approving spot of if 737 00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:55,520 Speaker 2: they win this, what they have the Ravens left chat 738 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 2: is one last tough game. 739 00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:04,760 Speaker 1: Their last hard game, their remaining schedule. Seahawks, Cardinals, Ravens 740 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:10,319 Speaker 1: in San Francisco, Commanders Rams at home, like this is 741 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:14,759 Speaker 1: a game that puts them in potential to contend for 742 00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,160 Speaker 1: the number one seed and potentially gets Christian McCaffrey or 743 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:19,120 Speaker 1: brought Party the MVP. 744 00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,319 Speaker 2: So I mean, this is everything. I guess is this 745 00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 2: is as close as you can get to a true 746 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,359 Speaker 2: playoff game here in December. So yeah, I can't wait. 747 00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,160 Speaker 2: We'll be at the bar watch with all the people, 748 00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,279 Speaker 2: and we will if this gets the three three and 749 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:39,080 Speaker 2: a half contest. How do we not have this one 750 00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:40,560 Speaker 2: in there? There's just such a big line. 751 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:46,560 Speaker 1: Dude, it's so hard, like this Niners team seven homegrown 752 00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,800 Speaker 1: All pros on their team. These are guys they drafted, 753 00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:55,640 Speaker 1: developed became all pros, right, And you and I are 754 00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,880 Speaker 1: going to dive deeper into this tomorrow we'll do the 755 00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:02,680 Speaker 1: YouTube exclusive Favorites Film Room. We're going to talk about Deebo, 756 00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,279 Speaker 1: Samuel and a little bit about Trent Williams. And we 757 00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:09,560 Speaker 1: talked about this on Sunday night. The difference in this 758 00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,840 Speaker 1: Niners team between when those two guys were out before 759 00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:14,719 Speaker 1: the bye and they lost three in a row, and 760 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:18,600 Speaker 1: then they got healthy and they've been back since. They 761 00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:21,719 Speaker 1: are a dominant, dominant team. And I think this line 762 00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:25,240 Speaker 1: would have opened at three given how the Eagles have played. 763 00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,680 Speaker 1: If those guys have been healthy all season, right, it 764 00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:33,320 Speaker 1: wouldn't have sort of moved in that direction. But the 765 00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:37,480 Speaker 1: Eagles are one of those teams, and they are, you know, 766 00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,960 Speaker 1: according to our luck rankings, one of the luckier teams 767 00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:45,239 Speaker 1: this year. But I think that diminishes their mindset, their 768 00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:49,000 Speaker 1: coaching staff and how they put themselves in positions to 769 00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:53,440 Speaker 1: win and they take advantage of the opportunity. Right, look 770 00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,920 Speaker 1: at a bad team like the Bears that had that 771 00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,799 Speaker 1: forced four turnovers last night against the Vikings, scored three 772 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:05,719 Speaker 1: points off the turnovers and barely won the game. And 773 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:09,279 Speaker 1: a team like the Eagles that also gets lucky but 774 00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:15,200 Speaker 1: then takes advantage. That's just understanding your position and playing 775 00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,360 Speaker 1: championship football. So it's really hard not to bet on 776 00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,840 Speaker 1: the Niners, I mean, on the Eagles as three point 777 00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:23,360 Speaker 1: home underdogs. 778 00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:26,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just the classic case of Eagles are so 779 00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,879 Speaker 2: good people are looking for reasons to make them bad. 780 00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,120 Speaker 2: Like we already talked about, they're the best team ATS 781 00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,279 Speaker 2: this year. So we have a team that went to 782 00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,520 Speaker 2: the Super Bowl last year, lost and somehow has the 783 00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:41,439 Speaker 2: best ATS record on football. That does not happen people, 784 00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,040 Speaker 2: you go through the history, rarely does that happen. You 785 00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,920 Speaker 2: need to be really mentally tough to have that kind 786 00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:49,040 Speaker 2: of thing, because not only do you have a target 787 00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,600 Speaker 2: on your back, the book has a target on you. 788 00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:53,920 Speaker 2: Like the books know the public is going to be 789 00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:54,880 Speaker 2: heavy on this team. 790 00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:57,200 Speaker 1: Every line is going to be inflated, yes. 791 00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,640 Speaker 2: And somehow, as lucky as they've been, they keep covering. 792 00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:04,239 Speaker 2: And it's the Hurts factor. I mean, just take that 793 00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:08,799 Speaker 2: overtime game. Nothing against Josh Allen, He's incredible, played an 794 00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:12,239 Speaker 2: incredible game, but in the biggest moment, him and Gabe 795 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 2: Davis weren't on the same page. Gave Davis went one 796 00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,279 Speaker 2: way wide open, Josh Allen threw the ball the other way. 797 00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:19,360 Speaker 2: The ball lands in the end zone on the grass, 798 00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:21,760 Speaker 2: Hurts gets the ball back. What's he do? He drives 799 00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,520 Speaker 2: the field and scores a touchdown? Like was he lucky 800 00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,319 Speaker 2: or is that a guy that's a difference maker, a 801 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,960 Speaker 2: game changer. So that's the toughest part with egos, where 802 00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,360 Speaker 2: it's like, yeah, they're getting lucky, but like you just said, Chad, 803 00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:34,400 Speaker 2: they're taking advantage of that luck and turning into wins. 804 00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:38,719 Speaker 2: So it again, as a professional, this number scares a 805 00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,280 Speaker 2: shit out of me because this is truly the classic 806 00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:45,080 Speaker 2: case of the pros no and the public. They're idiots, 807 00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,840 Speaker 2: they don't get it. Like the public. Everyone's I'm assuming's 808 00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:50,160 Speaker 2: going to be on this Eagles team. But early in 809 00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,080 Speaker 2: the week here, all the money, all the bets for 810 00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,360 Speaker 2: the most part right now are on the forty nine ers. 811 00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:56,720 Speaker 2: So again, it's early in the week, but it's definitely 812 00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,080 Speaker 2: interesting that the professionals have taken a major stand here 813 00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,920 Speaker 2: and will You're getting some sharp calls for sure on 814 00:42:02,000 --> 00:42:02,440 Speaker 2: this game. 815 00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:07,320 Speaker 1: Yeah. Actually, I can't wait to hear them. I'm so excited. 816 00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,560 Speaker 1: We are going to be as everyone knows, we're going 817 00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:13,320 Speaker 1: to be doing the live show on Sunday Shepherd and 818 00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,960 Speaker 1: the Knucklehead in New Jersey. But the doors open before 819 00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:19,359 Speaker 1: the four pm games. They open around three forty five. 820 00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,879 Speaker 1: Simon and I will be there. Will definitely be sweat 821 00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,719 Speaker 1: in some afternoon games for the contest and otherwise, and 822 00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:28,359 Speaker 1: this will be This will not be the corner TV game. 823 00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:32,480 Speaker 1: This game will be front and center. Here's an interesting 824 00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,840 Speaker 1: stat from Evan that leans in favor of the Eagles. 825 00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:40,879 Speaker 1: Teams that open as underdogs and close as favorites historically 826 00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:45,240 Speaker 1: struggled to cover fifty two eighty seven against the spread 827 00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,200 Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen twenty two and forty against the spread 828 00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,600 Speaker 1: the last two seasons. So and this numbers move. This 829 00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:55,640 Speaker 1: isn't like plus one to minus one. This is a huge, 830 00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:56,800 Speaker 1: huge swing. 831 00:42:57,760 --> 00:43:00,399 Speaker 2: Interesting people, you gotta get the last show. This might 832 00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,719 Speaker 2: be me and Chad's last live show because I'm gonna 833 00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,640 Speaker 2: be drinking during an Eagles game. I think the live 834 00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,359 Speaker 2: show is the door's open. I think it's a four 835 00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,400 Speaker 2: or five hour experience, So I'm not much of a drinker. 836 00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:13,879 Speaker 2: But I'm gona tell you I'm gonna be drinking because 837 00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:15,959 Speaker 2: I'm going to be nervous. I'm already nervous about this game. 838 00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,280 Speaker 2: So yeah, if you want to come watch me sweat 839 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,600 Speaker 2: an Eagles game, it doesn't get much better than this, 840 00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,279 Speaker 2: Like this is this is a tough as it gets 841 00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:24,440 Speaker 2: is an Eagles fan this week? 842 00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:26,640 Speaker 1: Oh my god, I'm so excited. We get to watch 843 00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:31,359 Speaker 1: this with people in like a fun environment hopefully all right, 844 00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:35,880 Speaker 1: Cleveland at the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams right now 845 00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:41,080 Speaker 1: are four point favorites, No down to three and a half. 846 00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,359 Speaker 1: I'm going to say this is my executive decision right 847 00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,200 Speaker 1: now on Cleveland. 848 00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:51,000 Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible are next to. 849 00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:58,600 Speaker 2: Executive decision. Wow, Wow, break it down, baby, why Cleveland? 850 00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,439 Speaker 2: Look number one, Garret's banged up, you know that, right? 851 00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,359 Speaker 1: I know he's got hit U in his arm. I 852 00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:04,040 Speaker 1: feel like. 853 00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:05,400 Speaker 2: You couldn't even lift his arm. 854 00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,080 Speaker 1: The it'll play. Don't worry about its miles scare. We've 855 00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,920 Speaker 1: got a couple things working in our favor Rams way, 856 00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:13,759 Speaker 1: and look, the numbers already moved. The wise guys have 857 00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:15,799 Speaker 1: taken the four So if you want to get it. 858 00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:17,759 Speaker 1: Get the three and a half. A. We've got the 859 00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:22,480 Speaker 1: stats about blowouts, right, teams losing by seventeen playing against 860 00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:25,200 Speaker 1: a team that won by more than seventeen sixty percent 861 00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,440 Speaker 1: against the spread. That includes you got blown. 862 00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,440 Speaker 2: Out last week? What's that Cleveland got blown out? 863 00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:32,160 Speaker 1: What do they end up losing like twenty nine to 864 00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:33,120 Speaker 1: twelve or something like that? 865 00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:35,399 Speaker 2: Wow? Fuck, guess you're right. 866 00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:39,239 Speaker 1: So and so that includes two games that we like, 867 00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:42,879 Speaker 1: Washington and now Cleveland. Look, this is a defensive playmakers 868 00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,760 Speaker 1: beyond Miles Garrett. I've been a fan of this defense 869 00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,680 Speaker 1: all year. Uh, it's good against the run, it's good 870 00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,080 Speaker 1: against the pass, it's good as a pass rushing team. 871 00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:55,640 Speaker 1: The Rams offensive line has struggled consistently against teams like this. 872 00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:58,400 Speaker 1: To me, this is a spot I don't think we 873 00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:02,000 Speaker 1: can be over sort of inflating the value of the 874 00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:05,640 Speaker 1: Rams from their win against a really bad team like 875 00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,080 Speaker 1: the Cardinals. And this is when lines get bet up 876 00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,440 Speaker 1: too much. And I think that's what happened with this game. 877 00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,440 Speaker 1: And now we're starting to see some buyback on the Rams. 878 00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:15,799 Speaker 1: At four. I think, like, I know, you still got 879 00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:17,440 Speaker 1: some work to do. I think you're going to dig 880 00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:20,359 Speaker 1: into this and think, oh, yeah, Cleveland's right side here. 881 00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:23,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. My only fear is they're clearly a different team 882 00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:25,839 Speaker 2: defensively on the road than they are at home. And 883 00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:31,960 Speaker 2: you're giving me a stafford. It looks relatively healthy. And 884 00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,680 Speaker 2: if you know, Cooper cups in the game with Puka 885 00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,000 Speaker 2: and they got Williams in the backfield, that's a pretty 886 00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,600 Speaker 2: potent offense. And if this does turn into a shootout, 887 00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,520 Speaker 2: which sounds crazy, but I mean, I can just hit 888 00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:47,319 Speaker 2: you real quick with Cleveland on the road here, all right, 889 00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:51,279 Speaker 2: So let's start early. Pittsburgh, you know whatever. That was 890 00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:55,560 Speaker 2: September eighteenth. They lost. They had twenty two points, but 891 00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,200 Speaker 2: they gave up twenty six to Pittsburgh. Okay, not a 892 00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:01,560 Speaker 2: big deal, early the season whatever them. Their next road 893 00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:04,120 Speaker 2: game is a couple weeks later is against the Colts. 894 00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:06,880 Speaker 2: They won thirty nine to thirty eight on the road, 895 00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,920 Speaker 2: So they gave up thirty eight points to the Colts. Okay, 896 00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:13,040 Speaker 2: fluky game. Those things happen the next week down the 897 00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:15,640 Speaker 2: road again in Seattle. We all remember this game. They 898 00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:19,280 Speaker 2: lost twenty four to twenty. That crazy giving up twenty points. 899 00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:21,920 Speaker 2: Then then the following week they go to Baltimore and 900 00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,759 Speaker 2: they gave up thirty one to that Ravens offense. So 901 00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:26,880 Speaker 2: and then we have them here in Denver where they 902 00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,000 Speaker 2: gave up twenty nine. Clearly, it's different them on the 903 00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:32,440 Speaker 2: road than compared to at home, and these are splits 904 00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:34,080 Speaker 2: I'm looking for that, like as we get into the 905 00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:36,719 Speaker 2: season later in the season, these are things I'm looking 906 00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,520 Speaker 2: for because that's real data, Like that's who these guys 907 00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:43,520 Speaker 2: are this season, where incredibly dominant, destroyed teams at home, 908 00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:47,200 Speaker 2: not as good on the road. It's clearly something here. 909 00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,000 Speaker 2: So to me, that would be my only pause. But 910 00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:52,919 Speaker 2: I'm with Chad in the sense that, like I mean, 911 00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:57,560 Speaker 2: this is a little inflated because we don't really know 912 00:46:57,600 --> 00:47:00,640 Speaker 2: what the health is of Garrett and we don't know exactly. 913 00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:02,799 Speaker 2: I think it will be the rookie, the kid at 914 00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,440 Speaker 2: quarterback again, but it could be to PJ. Walker, like 915 00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,200 Speaker 2: they haven't really said yet who's going to be the 916 00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:10,480 Speaker 2: starter or so I'll support you, chat on with you 917 00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,040 Speaker 2: on it. It's just a little scarier where this team 918 00:47:13,120 --> 00:47:16,000 Speaker 2: is just a different team on the road defensively. That's 919 00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:17,160 Speaker 2: my only pause here. 920 00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,160 Speaker 1: Well, we'll get more data by Sunday. We'll have a 921 00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:25,480 Speaker 1: decision one way or the other. Simon, can you name 922 00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:27,560 Speaker 1: the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States? 923 00:47:28,080 --> 00:47:28,640 Speaker 2: Game Time? 924 00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:31,600 Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love game 925 00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:34,600 Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. When they sponsored this show too. 926 00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:38,200 Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got 927 00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:42,120 Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including 928 00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:46,359 Speaker 1: pro and college games. Speaking of which, I'm opening game 929 00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:51,439 Speaker 1: Time right now from my house here in Connecticut. Looky, lou, 930 00:47:51,719 --> 00:47:54,360 Speaker 1: I can get into the New York Knicks to play 931 00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:59,880 Speaker 1: the Charlotte Hornets tonight at MSG less than seventy dollars. 932 00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:02,399 Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app, 933 00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:04,520 Speaker 1: get out, have some fun this week. Go sweat your 934 00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:07,279 Speaker 1: bets live and in person, and you can redeem code 935 00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:11,120 Speaker 1: favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms apply again. 936 00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:13,960 Speaker 1: Just download the app and enter code favorites for twenty 937 00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:19,160 Speaker 1: dollars off last minute ticket's lowest price. Gear runteed all right. 938 00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:24,520 Speaker 1: The under has now cashed in fifteen straight Sunday Night 939 00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:27,720 Speaker 1: Monday Night football games, dating back to last year. Regular 940 00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:32,440 Speaker 1: season Sunday Night Monday Night Football unders thirty two and 941 00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:35,600 Speaker 1: three in their last thirty five games. Kansas City at 942 00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:38,080 Speaker 1: green Bay, green Bay six and a half point underdog. 943 00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:43,560 Speaker 1: You mentioned this immediately on Sunday. You liked when green 944 00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,800 Speaker 1: Bay was at seven, it moved to six and a half. Wise, 945 00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,520 Speaker 1: guys are on the Packers. 946 00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:55,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, nothing's changed for me. Do it again, mahmes, Let's 947 00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,200 Speaker 2: see you do it again. Do back to back weeks 948 00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,600 Speaker 2: of thirty points. And I'm happy to pay to lose 949 00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:04,399 Speaker 2: this bat. But uh, green Bay here, not that they've 950 00:49:04,400 --> 00:49:06,640 Speaker 2: figured it out with Jordan Love, but it feels like 951 00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:09,080 Speaker 2: he's much more comfortable in this offense. He's last couple 952 00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:11,080 Speaker 2: of weeks. I mean, he played really well against Chargers, 953 00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:14,239 Speaker 2: played really good well against Detroit. Now he's going to 954 00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:18,120 Speaker 2: face a real defense. So great test for him here 955 00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,000 Speaker 2: at home. But just too big of a number. That's like, 956 00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,680 Speaker 2: that's my biggest issue here. Where it's like this three 957 00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:26,600 Speaker 2: and a half. I could probably be talked into the 958 00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:30,239 Speaker 2: Chiefs here, but at six and a half, seven, what 959 00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,399 Speaker 2: do you? What are we doing here? Gotta gotta take 960 00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:36,080 Speaker 2: green Bay at that number, way way too big, especially 961 00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:39,160 Speaker 2: for how well green Bay's played these last couple of weeks. 962 00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,680 Speaker 2: So my fear here was this was gonna be one 963 00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,040 Speaker 2: of the more public dogs of the week. I'm looking 964 00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,200 Speaker 2: the action app right now. The bets and the money 965 00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:49,280 Speaker 2: are on the Chiefs, So right now we're looking pretty 966 00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,640 Speaker 2: good people. But if this flips, this becomes a public dog, 967 00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:54,320 Speaker 2: I could I could probably be talking getting out of it, 968 00:49:54,360 --> 00:49:55,920 Speaker 2: because that's what happened last week with the Raiders. The 969 00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,240 Speaker 2: Raiders end up becoming a public dog. That's that's death 970 00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:03,480 Speaker 2: for you. So this one here, it's too big of 971 00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:07,719 Speaker 2: a number. We will spend more time on Thursday. But yeah, 972 00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:10,719 Speaker 2: like I have guys texting all the time. You listen 973 00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:14,280 Speaker 2: to our show, these other professionals, and you know, they're 974 00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,080 Speaker 2: of course giving me shit about a couple of picks. 975 00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,120 Speaker 2: But the multiple guys have said, when are you talking 976 00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,719 Speaker 2: about Green Bay? We talked about it. People, don't worry. 977 00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:23,719 Speaker 2: We're gonna get to it. It's a Sunday night game. 978 00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:26,719 Speaker 2: We like green Bay. We gave it out on Sunday night. 979 00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:29,919 Speaker 2: Nothing changed here. It's still six and a half. That's 980 00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:32,960 Speaker 2: such a key number. I got no problem taking this, 981 00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,480 Speaker 2: putting this one in our contest, and don't be shocked 982 00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:36,960 Speaker 2: this ends up being in one of our big balls 983 00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:37,880 Speaker 2: bets on Thursday. 984 00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:43,759 Speaker 1: Oh goodness, you mean it's not going to be Cincinnati 985 00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,840 Speaker 1: at Jacksonville. Jacksonville is an eight and a half point 986 00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,759 Speaker 1: favorite right now. The total in this game is thirty eight. 987 00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:54,000 Speaker 1: And I'll say that for a very specific reason. Obviously 988 00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:59,040 Speaker 1: we just mentioned all the unders in primetime games. Also 989 00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:06,279 Speaker 1: to member that stat that Evan gave about unders thirty eight, 990 00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:10,200 Speaker 1: some like thirty two to eleven and one against the spread. 991 00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,120 Speaker 1: So the last five games. Ever, if you could put 992 00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:15,240 Speaker 1: in the chat what the timeframe is for that I forgot. 993 00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:20,040 Speaker 1: But look, this is not the game that Joe that 994 00:51:20,040 --> 00:51:24,000 Speaker 1: that ESPN expected. They thought they were getting Joe Burrow 995 00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:28,400 Speaker 1: and Trevor Lawrence. When Joe leed it out, when Joe. 996 00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:30,680 Speaker 2: Burrow was that it's weird. They didn't flex it out. 997 00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:32,080 Speaker 2: They could have flexed it out and they didn't. 998 00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:33,759 Speaker 1: Can you flex I don't know if you can flex 999 00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:34,719 Speaker 1: out a Monday night game? 1000 00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, the game of a new contract. I'm almost positive. 1001 00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:41,440 Speaker 2: I could be wrong with this, but I'm almost positive 1002 00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,160 Speaker 2: they gave you has been a new contract where they 1003 00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:46,120 Speaker 2: can start flexing like the Sunday night flex. They gave 1004 00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,040 Speaker 2: the Monday night the same deal where they could, they 1005 00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:51,320 Speaker 2: could flex out guys to give them a better product 1006 00:51:51,360 --> 00:51:54,000 Speaker 2: quote unquote, but they didn't use it here. They could 1007 00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:55,799 Speaker 2: have moved this game out. They kept it in, which 1008 00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:56,759 Speaker 2: is interesting they. 1009 00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:59,520 Speaker 1: Didn't do it Joe Burrow. Before the injury, the Cincinnati 1010 00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:02,320 Speaker 1: Bengals were one point favorites. Now they are eight and 1011 00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:06,200 Speaker 1: a half point underdogs. Is nine and a half points 1012 00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:09,839 Speaker 1: too much of a swing? Is Joe Burrow worth ten 1013 00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:14,840 Speaker 1: points to the spread versus Jake Browning? Are we getting 1014 00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:20,680 Speaker 1: an ugly loss Cincinnati team against a semi lucky win 1015 00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:25,279 Speaker 1: that looks less impressive forty eight hours later in the Jaguars. 1016 00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:30,160 Speaker 1: I'm asking all this to say, in addition to the 1017 00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:35,600 Speaker 1: trends that favor an underdog in these low total games, 1018 00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:38,240 Speaker 1: is there an edge for Cincy that we're missing? 1019 00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,960 Speaker 2: No, I mean, you're probably right, You're probably getting a 1020 00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:45,960 Speaker 2: lot more value right now in this line, like it's 1021 00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:50,400 Speaker 2: bumped up to three points. Probably, But yeah, I got 1022 00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:52,840 Speaker 2: no read on it. Like I just I got no 1023 00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:59,359 Speaker 2: feel for this kid on Cincy. And last week they 1024 00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,359 Speaker 2: were like thowing the lucky teams in football, Like they 1025 00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:04,000 Speaker 2: had this this tip pass that Chase took all the 1026 00:53:04,040 --> 00:53:09,120 Speaker 2: way down to like the five yard line to tip. 1027 00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:11,440 Speaker 1: The only reason they were in that game was because 1028 00:53:11,480 --> 00:53:13,000 Speaker 1: he caught two tip passes. 1029 00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:18,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, it was just it was wonky and they still lost. 1030 00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:20,600 Speaker 2: Like It's just that's the fear here where it's like 1031 00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:23,799 Speaker 2: the football guys are giving them the bounces that we 1032 00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:25,960 Speaker 2: already talked about. Pittsburgh had four hundred yards of offense, 1033 00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:27,640 Speaker 2: but they only put up sixteen points. Like it was 1034 00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:29,640 Speaker 2: all there for Sincy to pull the upset off last 1035 00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:32,440 Speaker 2: week and they couldn't do it. It's the same fear here 1036 00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:35,000 Speaker 2: where the Jaguars didn't play their best game, like they 1037 00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:38,279 Speaker 2: had a lot of things fortunately go their way. This 1038 00:53:38,360 --> 00:53:41,840 Speaker 2: is usually a spot where they kill these teams, like 1039 00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,919 Speaker 2: at home in a primetime game. But Chad just said, 1040 00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:47,759 Speaker 2: it's like this, this moves so much the I don't 1041 00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:48,879 Speaker 2: know if this is gonna be one of our five, 1042 00:53:48,960 --> 00:53:52,120 Speaker 2: but as a professional, I gotta do it. I guess 1043 00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:53,759 Speaker 2: I gotta take Cincy. But I hate this one. It's 1044 00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:55,319 Speaker 2: another game where it's like I'm happy just to take 1045 00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:57,040 Speaker 2: the under and not watch a second of this game. 1046 00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:59,359 Speaker 1: And yeah, we will definitely be on the under. Evan 1047 00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:03,160 Speaker 1: gave me the stat again from earlier totals thirty seven 1048 00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,120 Speaker 1: or less twenty two four and one to the under. 1049 00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,520 Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty thirty eight or less thirty two eleven 1050 00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:10,640 Speaker 1: and one to the under. So right now this numbers 1051 00:54:10,640 --> 00:54:13,640 Speaker 1: at thirty eight. Plus you got the overriding factor that 1052 00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:16,799 Speaker 1: it's a Monday night football game. From those prime time 1053 00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:18,279 Speaker 1: hunters have been cashing. 1054 00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:21,000 Speaker 2: So thirteen to one to the under primetime Monday game. 1055 00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:24,400 Speaker 1: If we can uh put the thirty eight in the contest, 1056 00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:26,279 Speaker 1: that'd be great. Maybe we can call that three six five, 1057 00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,640 Speaker 1: have them change the rules in the past in the 1058 00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:36,640 Speaker 1: last you know, six weeks of the season. Right now, Uh. 1059 00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,160 Speaker 2: Bay is down to six as we're doing the show live. 1060 00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:40,600 Speaker 1: People betting it. 1061 00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:42,960 Speaker 2: People made it, Simon says, God damn it. 1062 00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:46,359 Speaker 1: Number is moving. Well, if you've made it, Simon says, then, 1063 00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:49,560 Speaker 1: uh yeah, I guess that would have made more sense. 1064 00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:58,880 Speaker 1: Uh games we're talking about that will dig deeper on Tennessee, Washington, Denver. 1065 00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:03,800 Speaker 1: You should have made Tennessee assignment, says. 1066 00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:05,719 Speaker 2: Love them all, brother, it's I'm trying to pick a 1067 00:55:05,719 --> 00:55:06,759 Speaker 2: favorite child here. It's tough. 1068 00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:08,799 Speaker 1: Love them all. Love them all like your kids. It's 1069 00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,719 Speaker 1: not true people love their kids differently. Denver plus three 1070 00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:15,560 Speaker 1: and a half, Cleveland plus four, we're going to talk 1071 00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:18,960 Speaker 1: more about that one. Green Bay plus six. Now sincey 1072 00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:20,879 Speaker 1: eight and a half, this is the Jets plus two 1073 00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,879 Speaker 1: and a half, we're going to talk more about Detroit too. 1074 00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:27,240 Speaker 1: I think we're gonna have to find a favorite somewhere, 1075 00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:29,880 Speaker 1: and it just might be it might be the Detroit 1076 00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:32,440 Speaker 1: Lions or the No I think I talked you out 1077 00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:33,040 Speaker 1: of the Steelers. 1078 00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:35,160 Speaker 2: Okay, I did. 1079 00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:39,160 Speaker 1: I think I did? All right, let's see. As a reminder, 1080 00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,799 Speaker 1: the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five. 1081 00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,520 Speaker 1: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you 1082 00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:47,200 Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every 1083 00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:49,160 Speaker 1: day they power the odds on hundreds of bets to 1084 00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:50,719 Speaker 1: give you a chance to win more. Bet three six 1085 00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:53,719 Speaker 1: five boost specific markets, your winnings and even parlays. They 1086 00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:56,160 Speaker 1: don't stop there. Keep an eye for their biggest and 1087 00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:59,680 Speaker 1: best odds with the incredible super Boost. Check out the 1088 00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:02,719 Speaker 1: Boost and see why it's never ordinary at Bet three 1089 00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:06,560 Speaker 1: six y five. Must be twenty one en president in Colorado, Iowa, 1090 00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:10,200 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia, or eighteen and older in 1091 00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:14,239 Speaker 1: Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one 1092 00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,720 Speaker 1: eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Condition and restrictions apply. 1093 00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:20,120 Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of the Favorites 1094 00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,360 Speaker 1: live on the Action Network YouTube page this Thursday, eleven 1095 00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:27,759 Speaker 1: am Eastern. Don't forget Shepherd and the Knucklehead. Simon and 1096 00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:30,040 Speaker 1: I are going to be watching those afternoon games Hoboken, 1097 00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:32,359 Speaker 1: New Jersey. Doors open at three forty five. You got 1098 00:56:32,360 --> 00:56:36,040 Speaker 1: to RSVP, free drinks, free entry. Simon and I go 1099 00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:39,399 Speaker 1: in live with the podcast Matt Mitchell producing seven point 1100 00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:43,520 Speaker 1: thirty Sunday night. Watch the show after watching us watch 1101 00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:47,919 Speaker 1: the games with you RSVP on the description page here 1102 00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:51,200 Speaker 1: for YouTube and in the podcast description page. Wherever you're 1103 00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:54,719 Speaker 1: listening to the podcast, which could be Spotify, Apple Podcasts, 1104 00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:58,279 Speaker 1: wherever you're getting your podcasts, rate review, subscribe me this 1105 00:56:58,400 --> 00:57:01,120 Speaker 1: five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift 1106 00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:11,920 Speaker 1: until Thursday, eleven am Eastern. Love you. Action Network reminds 1107 00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:15,799 Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care 1108 00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:18,960 Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem. Help is available twenty four 1109 00:57:19,000 --> 00:57:21,040 Speaker 1: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler