WEBVTT - The Science of Quitting 0:00:14.916 --> 0:00:31.716 Pushkin. What I found out is that, like there's all 0:00:31.716 --> 0:00:38.476 these like great words for grit, including like heroism, right 0:00:38.556 --> 0:00:43.876 like steadfast, right like perseverance, Like grit is one of 0:00:43.916 --> 0:00:49.796 those words that's like a super super positive connotation, like sticktuitiveness, 0:00:50.716 --> 0:00:54.036 But when you look at quit, there's hardly any words 0:00:54.076 --> 0:00:57.036 that like are nice. And in fact, one of the 0:00:57.356 --> 0:01:01.916 synonyms for quit is the word coward. Annie Duke knows 0:01:02.036 --> 0:01:04.956 a lot about quitting. It's something she got really good 0:01:04.996 --> 0:01:07.276 at when she was a professional poker player on the 0:01:07.316 --> 0:01:11.316 world stage, and a successful one at that. We're talking 0:01:11.316 --> 0:01:15.596 over four million dollars in prize money. And what distinguishes 0:01:15.636 --> 0:01:19.316 great poker players from everybody else is that is mainly quitting. 0:01:19.796 --> 0:01:21.876 They quit a lot more. So they're just very good 0:01:21.916 --> 0:01:24.756 at cutting their losses, so they fold more hands to start. 0:01:24.996 --> 0:01:27.276 Once they've committed money to a pot, they fold a 0:01:27.276 --> 0:01:30.676 lot more. They change tactics or strategies like in the 0:01:30.716 --> 0:01:34.916 middle of things, and you have to be willing to 0:01:34.956 --> 0:01:38.636 do that. Annie's rallying cry is that we should quit 0:01:38.716 --> 0:01:42.196 a lot more. I know it's not something we hear often, 0:01:42.716 --> 0:01:45.476 and that's exactly why I've been so excited to have 0:01:45.596 --> 0:01:48.556 Annie on this show to teach us something that goes 0:01:48.596 --> 0:01:52.156 against common wisdom but can actually change our lives for 0:01:52.196 --> 0:01:56.316 the better. Annie's the best selling author of two books, 0:01:56.316 --> 0:01:59.476 Thinking in Bets and How to Decide. But today she's 0:01:59.476 --> 0:02:01.596 going to give us a sneak peek of her upcoming 0:02:01.636 --> 0:02:04.636 book on the science of Quitting. She'll show us how 0:02:04.676 --> 0:02:06.516 to get out of her own way and learn how 0:02:06.556 --> 0:02:12.036 to quit when we should. I'm Maya Shunker, and this 0:02:12.116 --> 0:02:14.876 is a slight change of plans, a show about who 0:02:14.876 --> 0:02:17.356 we are and who we become in the face of 0:02:17.396 --> 0:02:31.276 a big change. Poker wasn't always in the cards for Annie. 0:02:31.716 --> 0:02:34.836 She actually started out at the University of Pennsylvania studying 0:02:34.876 --> 0:02:39.476 cognitive science, specifically how we make decisions and times of uncertainty. 0:02:40.476 --> 0:02:44.156 I was fully intending to become a professor, which is 0:02:44.236 --> 0:02:45.796 kind of what you do with that kind of degree. 0:02:45.796 --> 0:02:48.556 It doesn't have a whole lot of practical application. And 0:02:48.676 --> 0:02:50.516 I actually had all of my what are called job 0:02:50.516 --> 0:02:55.116 talks lined up, and I've been struggling for a couple 0:02:55.156 --> 0:02:58.116 of months with a stomach problem, and I thought I'm 0:02:58.116 --> 0:03:00.556 just going to power through this, and it turned out 0:03:00.636 --> 0:03:03.596 that my body said no, you can't power through it. 0:03:04.396 --> 0:03:06.996 And in fact, the powering through it meant that I 0:03:07.076 --> 0:03:09.116 ended up in the hospital because I sort of wasn't 0:03:09.236 --> 0:03:11.596 taking care of this problem. And so I was in 0:03:11.596 --> 0:03:15.556 the hospital for a couple of weeks, very sick. So 0:03:16.996 --> 0:03:19.676 I decided to take a year off to try to recuperate. 0:03:20.396 --> 0:03:22.756 And there was a little bit of a bind, right, 0:03:22.796 --> 0:03:24.996 because so I've been forced to quit for a year, 0:03:25.476 --> 0:03:27.276 and I can't I don't want to start a new 0:03:27.316 --> 0:03:29.116 career because I'm going to go back and become an 0:03:29.156 --> 0:03:32.276 academic and I don't know how I'm going to feel 0:03:32.356 --> 0:03:34.956 from day today. So I need something that has like 0:03:34.956 --> 0:03:38.796 super flexible hours. And I really desperately need money, because 0:03:38.836 --> 0:03:42.156 it turns out when you leave graduate school for a year, 0:03:42.356 --> 0:03:48.196 your fellowship does not leave with you. You yeah, yeah, 0:03:48.236 --> 0:03:50.996 So I did not have any money. So my brother 0:03:51.716 --> 0:03:54.996 actually suggested to me that I could play poker and 0:03:55.036 --> 0:03:56.836 that that might be like the perfect thing for me 0:03:56.876 --> 0:03:59.156 to do because obviously I could set my own hours, 0:03:59.196 --> 0:04:00.916 and you know, I could just do it to make 0:04:00.956 --> 0:04:03.116 some money on the side. And you know what, I 0:04:03.156 --> 0:04:05.036 just I sat down at the table and it was like, 0:04:06.476 --> 0:04:08.436 you know, when like in the movies, I'll have like 0:04:08.516 --> 0:04:12.636 the heavens open up and the angels are singing. It 0:04:12.676 --> 0:04:14.676 felt a little bit like that to me, because when 0:04:14.676 --> 0:04:17.116 I thought about what I had been studying a graduate school, 0:04:18.716 --> 0:04:21.796 this was that, in other words, this problem of how 0:04:21.836 --> 0:04:25.796 do you make really great decisions under uncertainty, and poker 0:04:25.916 --> 0:04:29.196 is like super uncertain you can't see the other players cards, 0:04:29.196 --> 0:04:31.556 and in the short run there's a really really strong 0:04:31.596 --> 0:04:34.836 influence of luck, which makes the decision making problem really hard, 0:04:34.916 --> 0:04:38.596 and it's really high stakes in real time. And sort 0:04:38.636 --> 0:04:40.396 of from the moment I sat down at the table, 0:04:40.556 --> 0:04:42.796 it turned out I had a knack for it. So 0:04:42.876 --> 0:04:45.316 I didn't actually end up going back to graduate school 0:04:45.356 --> 0:04:47.436 because I loved this so much and I was experiencing 0:04:47.476 --> 0:04:50.076 a lot of success. Within a couple of years, I'd 0:04:50.116 --> 0:04:52.356 played at the World Series of Poker, I was making 0:04:52.396 --> 0:04:56.436 final tables, I cashed in the main event, ended up 0:04:56.476 --> 0:04:59.996 moving to Las Vegas, And this is what I really 0:05:00.036 --> 0:05:03.476 concentrated on for quite a while. And then in two 0:05:03.556 --> 0:05:06.636 thousand and two there was a new aaha, which was 0:05:06.916 --> 0:05:10.716 that there was this amazing conversation to be had between 0:05:10.756 --> 0:05:14.876 cognitive science and poker, a poker sort of informing the 0:05:14.916 --> 0:05:18.636 cognitive science and the cognitive science informing the poker. So 0:05:18.996 --> 0:05:23.476 I started consulting and speaking full time and really wanted 0:05:23.516 --> 0:05:26.236 to write a book about these topics that I had 0:05:26.276 --> 0:05:30.556 really been exploring. So it looks like I've changed careers 0:05:30.596 --> 0:05:33.996 a lot, you know, from academic to poker player to 0:05:34.476 --> 0:05:39.316 speaker and consultant to author back to academic. It seems 0:05:39.356 --> 0:05:41.156 like a lot of zigging and zagging. But there's this 0:05:41.276 --> 0:05:45.556 through line through everything, which is learning under uncertainty. Yeah, 0:05:45.596 --> 0:05:49.636 so quitting gets such a bad rep right, And you know, 0:05:49.956 --> 0:05:51.676 one of the things that I loved learning from you 0:05:51.796 --> 0:05:55.356 is that it's evident, even in the English language, that 0:05:55.396 --> 0:05:58.876 we are biased against quitting. Can you share more about that? Sure? 0:05:59.116 --> 0:06:02.756 So you have hero as a synonym, like heroism is 0:06:02.756 --> 0:06:07.036 a synonym for grittiness, and then cowardice as a synonym 0:06:07.116 --> 0:06:09.716 for quitting. And also, just by the way, one of 0:06:09.756 --> 0:06:12.716 the things I point out is we have this word grittiness, 0:06:12.716 --> 0:06:15.116 but we don't have a word quittiness, which is telling 0:06:15.156 --> 0:06:18.156 in and of itself. Right. So obviously there are some 0:06:18.236 --> 0:06:25.556 negative ways to describe being too gritty, like stubbornness or rigidity, 0:06:25.916 --> 0:06:29.596 but they're few and far between. Mostly they're like amazing, like, oh, 0:06:29.636 --> 0:06:33.836 you're such a hero, You're so gritty, you're perseverance, stick, tuitiveness, pluck, 0:06:34.156 --> 0:06:39.196 you're very plucky, right of metal. And then on the quitside, 0:06:39.196 --> 0:06:44.156 it's just like you're a coward, right, you're capricious, like 0:06:44.396 --> 0:06:46.716 all of these things. So I think that it's really 0:06:46.716 --> 0:06:48.836 reflected in the English language, and then it's kind of 0:06:48.876 --> 0:06:52.276 reflected in if you think about the way that we 0:06:52.356 --> 0:06:55.716 process a narrative, right, we don't really see the quitters. 0:06:55.836 --> 0:06:58.676 Like what we think about is the people the heroes 0:06:58.716 --> 0:07:02.476 are the ones who persevere beyond the point of physical 0:07:03.116 --> 0:07:06.356 or emotional or mental well being in order to push 0:07:06.396 --> 0:07:10.196 past that and like cross the chasm. But the problem, 0:07:10.276 --> 0:07:14.556 of course, is that a lot of times those people 0:07:14.636 --> 0:07:17.356 have put themselves in danger in a situation where you 0:07:17.356 --> 0:07:20.156 really ought to have turned around. And what I think 0:07:20.316 --> 0:07:23.316 is really interesting, and I talk about this in the book, 0:07:23.396 --> 0:07:29.116 is that from a narrative standpoint, we'd prefer somebody to 0:07:29.196 --> 0:07:35.076 push past the point of sensibility and persevere and actually 0:07:35.116 --> 0:07:40.916 perish to somebody who rightly quits early, Like, which do 0:07:40.956 --> 0:07:46.156 you think of is the more admirable person? So one 0:07:46.156 --> 0:07:49.316 of the examples, like I've given the book is if 0:07:49.316 --> 0:07:51.916 you think about Everest, right when we think about somebody 0:07:51.916 --> 0:07:55.236 like Rob Hall. So for those people who don't know, 0:07:55.396 --> 0:07:57.676 like if you've read the book Into Thin Air or 0:07:57.716 --> 0:08:01.636 you've seen the documentary Everest, this was in nineteen ninety 0:08:01.636 --> 0:08:04.156 six and there was a it was a disastrous year 0:08:04.196 --> 0:08:06.996 where a lot of people died on the mountain on Everest, 0:08:07.236 --> 0:08:11.156 and Rob Hall, who was this amazing alpinist and expedition leader, 0:08:11.516 --> 0:08:14.356 was one of those people who perished, and he is 0:08:14.516 --> 0:08:17.796 very much painted as a hero of that story. He 0:08:17.876 --> 0:08:21.436 had set turnaround times for every single day, and a 0:08:21.476 --> 0:08:23.596 turnaround time is just if you haven't gotten to point 0:08:23.596 --> 0:08:25.876 A by this time, you must turn around and go 0:08:25.956 --> 0:08:28.996 back to whatever camp you're coming from. The reason being 0:08:29.036 --> 0:08:31.276 that there's a very very dangerous part of that mountain 0:08:31.316 --> 0:08:34.556 called the South Ridge, and you do not want to 0:08:34.556 --> 0:08:37.756 descend the South Ridge in darkness. You'll fall like eight 0:08:37.756 --> 0:08:41.476 thousand feet into Nepal. And Rob Hall broke the turnaround time, 0:08:43.036 --> 0:08:46.556 so you know, and obviously it resulted in tragedy. And 0:08:46.596 --> 0:08:48.956 what's really interesting is that there were some people who 0:08:48.956 --> 0:08:53.036 followed the turnaround time who are also described in the book. 0:08:53.076 --> 0:08:57.396 They're also in the documentary, and nobody remembers their names, 0:08:57.476 --> 0:08:59.676 just so you know, it's such in Santaski and Kaciki, 0:09:00.156 --> 0:09:02.076 these are three people who turned around at the right 0:09:02.076 --> 0:09:04.556 time and made these great decisions, and they're totally invisible 0:09:04.596 --> 0:09:07.236 to us because they aren't the heroes of our narratives. 0:09:07.316 --> 0:09:08.916 And that's part of the problem, Like how do you 0:09:09.276 --> 0:09:12.236 people like that to be the hero of your narrative? Yeah? Yeah, 0:09:12.276 --> 0:09:14.316 can you also just close the loot for listeners on 0:09:14.396 --> 0:09:17.316 Rob Hall, So just noting that the reason he did 0:09:17.316 --> 0:09:19.396 not follow the turnaround time he was trying to help 0:09:19.436 --> 0:09:21.516 this guy get up who had previously not been able 0:09:21.556 --> 0:09:22.876 to get up, And do you mind just sharing that 0:09:22.916 --> 0:09:25.236 because I think that's such an emotionally evocative part of 0:09:25.236 --> 0:09:27.036 the story, which is like we can't quit a second time, 0:09:27.436 --> 0:09:29.516 you know. Yeah? Yeah, So Rob Paul actually got to 0:09:29.556 --> 0:09:31.356 the top, but then he waited there for two hours 0:09:31.356 --> 0:09:34.916 for a guy named Doug Hanson. And the question is why, right, 0:09:34.956 --> 0:09:36.836 like why why he was already an hour passed the 0:09:36.876 --> 0:09:39.876 turnaround time. Doug Hanson clearly was well passed the turnaround 0:09:39.916 --> 0:09:42.156 time and was not nearly as skill the climber as 0:09:42.236 --> 0:09:44.436 Rob Hall was, so why didn't he turn around? And 0:09:44.476 --> 0:09:47.356 you have to rewind to the year before to understand 0:09:47.436 --> 0:09:49.916 kind of what the forces were that caused him to 0:09:49.916 --> 0:09:53.596 do that. So the year before was a very bad 0:09:53.596 --> 0:09:57.596 climbing year. So Rob Hall had tried to sum up 0:09:57.636 --> 0:09:59.516 with a group and Doug Hanson was in the group 0:09:59.916 --> 0:10:03.636 and they came back down, so they had abandoned their 0:10:03.676 --> 0:10:07.676 summit attempt. So now he convinces Doug Hanson to come 0:10:07.716 --> 0:10:11.396 back the next year because he says, I'll get you 0:10:11.516 --> 0:10:14.916 up the second time. And now we can see these 0:10:14.916 --> 0:10:18.076 forces like this is one of the big forces that 0:10:18.196 --> 0:10:20.956 causes us to not quit. And the phrase that I 0:10:20.996 --> 0:10:23.916 think is such a great phrase for us to really 0:10:24.036 --> 0:10:28.076 internalize it is called in the losses. So when we're 0:10:28.076 --> 0:10:31.236 in the losses, we have the desire to get those back, 0:10:32.396 --> 0:10:37.956 and we don't think about, well, what's the probability that 0:10:37.996 --> 0:10:40.876 I would actually be able to succeed? That's number one. 0:10:40.956 --> 0:10:43.556 We don't think about if I go for this, what 0:10:43.596 --> 0:10:46.556 are the opportunities I'm going to give up by going 0:10:46.596 --> 0:10:49.196 for it? Right, And that's true of anything like if 0:10:49.236 --> 0:10:54.316 you're in an monogamous relationship, you're obviously foregoing the opportunities 0:10:54.356 --> 0:10:57.756 to date other people. If you're in a job, you're 0:10:57.756 --> 0:11:01.156 foregoing the other opportunities to have other full time jobs. 0:11:01.236 --> 0:11:03.676 So this is a really actually big problem is that 0:11:03.716 --> 0:11:06.636 we tend not to see what we're giving up in 0:11:06.716 --> 0:11:09.556 terms of the other opportunities that might be available to 0:11:09.636 --> 0:11:11.916 us when we're on a particular path. So if you 0:11:11.996 --> 0:11:16.596 think about climbing Everest when we're thinking about trying to 0:11:16.596 --> 0:11:20.556 reach the summit, it causes this like myopia where we 0:11:20.596 --> 0:11:24.436 can't see, like other things, other opportunities that we might 0:11:24.476 --> 0:11:26.596 have in our life, like to climb other mountains, or 0:11:26.676 --> 0:11:30.276 to spend time with our families or whatever it else 0:11:30.476 --> 0:11:32.916 it is we might want to do that that pursuing 0:11:32.996 --> 0:11:35.156 that goal might actually make less likely for us to 0:11:35.156 --> 0:11:39.196 be able to do exactly. Okay, so Annie, I'd love 0:11:39.236 --> 0:11:42.596 to dig into some of the behavioral biases we face 0:11:42.796 --> 0:11:46.156 that interfere with our ability to quit when we ought to. 0:11:47.116 --> 0:11:51.796 Do you mind talking with listeners about escalation of commitment? Sure? 0:11:52.556 --> 0:11:55.356 Have you ever heard of the game Katamari? So Katamari 0:11:55.516 --> 0:11:58.396 is a game where it's the weirdest game. You start 0:11:58.396 --> 0:12:01.076 with this little tiny speck of something and you roll 0:12:01.156 --> 0:12:03.876 it around and it starts to pick stuff up, and 0:12:03.916 --> 0:12:06.756 if it picks things up that are smaller than it is, 0:12:07.236 --> 0:12:08.956 it will pick it up and it will grow in size. 0:12:09.116 --> 0:12:10.876 If you try to pick something up that's bigger than 0:12:10.916 --> 0:12:13.716 the ball that you're rolling around, it will cause the 0:12:13.756 --> 0:12:16.396 ball to become smaller again. So the idea is you're 0:12:16.436 --> 0:12:19.116 trying to create a ball that's big enough that you 0:12:19.156 --> 0:12:22.716 can start picking up planets and it becomes like the 0:12:22.756 --> 0:12:25.796 size of a sun. So you start off with this 0:12:25.836 --> 0:12:28.916 little ball that's like picking up specs of dust and flies, 0:12:28.996 --> 0:12:30.916 and you're rolling it around like in a room, and 0:12:30.956 --> 0:12:33.156 you're like, then you start picking up bottles, you pick 0:12:33.196 --> 0:12:36.516 up the cat, you know, you pick up like the couch, 0:12:36.756 --> 0:12:38.796 and then you start picking up houses, and you can 0:12:38.836 --> 0:12:41.036 pick up mountains, and this thing just becomes bigger and 0:12:41.076 --> 0:12:44.756 bigger and bigger. And when I think about what happens 0:12:44.836 --> 0:12:47.556 to us that we don't quit, I think about Cotamuri 0:12:47.676 --> 0:12:49.436 because I think that it's such a great visual for 0:12:49.556 --> 0:12:53.396 understanding escalation of commitment. And it basically goes this way. 0:12:53.836 --> 0:12:57.556 You put time, resources, money, your own identity, right like, 0:12:57.596 --> 0:13:00.036 if you think about a career or a major, it 0:13:00.076 --> 0:13:02.636 becomes part of your identity. Who am I? I'm a doctor? 0:13:03.796 --> 0:13:08.116 Who am I? You know? I am an English major 0:13:09.196 --> 0:13:12.356 or I'm an engineer or whatever. Right, these things become 0:13:12.396 --> 0:13:14.356 part of our identity, and then we're putting time and 0:13:14.396 --> 0:13:17.876 effort and money and all of this stuff resources into 0:13:17.916 --> 0:13:23.796 this thing. Those The fact that we've dumped all of 0:13:23.836 --> 0:13:27.476 that into the decision to be on the path that 0:13:27.516 --> 0:13:30.316 we're on means that when we're faced with a decision 0:13:30.316 --> 0:13:33.276 about whether to quit or persevere, we're going to have 0:13:33.316 --> 0:13:37.156 a tendency to persevere because we've accumulated all of this 0:13:37.316 --> 0:13:42.076 debris like a catamari ball. But what's interesting is that 0:13:42.116 --> 0:13:45.556 the fact that that pushes us to persevere means that 0:13:45.676 --> 0:13:49.796 now we persevere, and now we put more time and 0:13:49.956 --> 0:13:53.876 more effort and more money and more resources and more 0:13:53.916 --> 0:13:56.756 of our identity into the thing that we're doing, which 0:13:56.756 --> 0:13:58.916 means that the next point that we're thinking about whether 0:13:58.996 --> 0:14:02.156 to quit or persevere, the ball is bigger. It's starting 0:14:02.196 --> 0:14:06.836 to become house sized, which makes us then more likely 0:14:06.876 --> 0:14:10.036 to persevere again, and so on and so forth, until 0:14:10.116 --> 0:14:13.516 you have like this katamari that's the size of a planet, 0:14:13.796 --> 0:14:16.956 and you kind of can't quit at that point. So 0:14:17.036 --> 0:14:18.676 now if we go back to Rob Hall, we can 0:14:18.716 --> 0:14:20.756 see the problem, right, because he's carrying a lot of 0:14:20.796 --> 0:14:23.356 that with him. He failed the year before. He's made 0:14:23.356 --> 0:14:25.956 a promise to Doug Hanson and that he's going to 0:14:26.036 --> 0:14:28.996 get him up, and that causes this myopia for him 0:14:28.996 --> 0:14:31.156 to sort of, I think, not to see the situation 0:14:31.196 --> 0:14:33.116 for what it is, which is one that you should quit, 0:14:33.716 --> 0:14:36.876 go back down the mountain, grab Doug Hanson and then 0:14:37.076 --> 0:14:38.916 you know, maybe you have a chance the next year. 0:14:39.676 --> 0:14:42.196 I'm wondering Annie if you can talk a bit about 0:14:42.236 --> 0:14:45.196 the role of regret and all this, because there is 0:14:45.236 --> 0:14:48.196 a regret asymmetry that's important to acknowledge here, which is, 0:14:48.836 --> 0:14:51.956 we tend to feel a lot of regret when we 0:14:51.996 --> 0:14:55.556 think about the idea of quitting, but somehow staying with 0:14:55.556 --> 0:14:57.716 the status quo does not fill us with those same 0:14:57.836 --> 0:15:00.356 feelings of regret. And so can you just talk to 0:15:00.396 --> 0:15:03.596 listeners a bit about regret asymmetry generally and how that 0:15:03.636 --> 0:15:07.316 plays a profound role in our conception of quitting. Right, 0:15:07.476 --> 0:15:11.356 it's an antagonist towards quitting. Yeah, so there's two really 0:15:11.396 --> 0:15:14.556 important biases to think about because they collide here when 0:15:14.556 --> 0:15:17.236 it comes to quitting. The first cognitive bias is called 0:15:17.236 --> 0:15:20.156 status quo bias. Status quo bias is that we have 0:15:20.236 --> 0:15:23.716 a preference for the path that we're already on. Okay, 0:15:23.716 --> 0:15:25.716 so we don't like to change. We have a preference 0:15:25.716 --> 0:15:28.396 to keep going the way that we're going. That collides 0:15:28.436 --> 0:15:32.356 with another bias, which is called omission comission bias, and 0:15:32.756 --> 0:15:38.396 what that is is that failing to act does not 0:15:38.636 --> 0:15:44.796 feel as much like a decision as acting does. Right, 0:15:44.876 --> 0:15:47.436 So let's say that I'm in a career or I'm 0:15:47.476 --> 0:15:52.676 in a relationship and I just stay the path. It 0:15:52.716 --> 0:15:56.716 doesn't feel like I've made a decision. If I move, 0:15:57.596 --> 0:16:00.116 If I quit my job and change, if I break 0:16:00.196 --> 0:16:03.476 up in the relationship, now it feels like I've actually 0:16:03.516 --> 0:16:06.316 made a decision. Now. The reason why this is an 0:16:06.436 --> 0:16:10.036 error is because the decision to stay in the job 0:16:10.316 --> 0:16:13.356 is also an active decision, and you should treat it 0:16:13.396 --> 0:16:18.476 the same way like our regret treats those two things differently. Okay, 0:16:18.756 --> 0:16:23.316 so let's say that you're in a job that is 0:16:23.396 --> 0:16:27.556 just awful. I have had conversations with people quite often 0:16:27.756 --> 0:16:30.276 where this happens. They come to me and they say, 0:16:32.036 --> 0:16:34.396 I really hate my job. I'm trying to decide whether 0:16:34.436 --> 0:16:36.476 I should quit. I don't really know what I should do, 0:16:36.916 --> 0:16:40.396 and I ask them this question. Imagine it's a year 0:16:40.516 --> 0:16:42.916 from now and you're still in the job that you're in. 0:16:43.716 --> 0:16:47.236 Do you think you'll be happy? And they say no. 0:16:47.836 --> 0:16:50.276 So what they're telling me is that one hundred percent 0:16:50.316 --> 0:16:53.236 of the time, twelve months from now, I will be 0:16:53.316 --> 0:16:56.236 unhappy in the job that I'm in. So now I 0:16:56.276 --> 0:16:57.916 say to them, Okay, let's say that you quit this 0:16:58.036 --> 0:16:59.796 job and you go get this other job that you're 0:16:59.836 --> 0:17:04.716 thinking about. Imagine it's a year from now, do you 0:17:04.756 --> 0:17:07.916 think you'll be happy? And they'll say, well, some of 0:17:07.956 --> 0:17:10.756 the time, you know, they'll say, let's just say they 0:17:10.756 --> 0:17:14.476 say it's a fifty fifty chance. Okay, So they say, 0:17:14.756 --> 0:17:16.796 if I switch fifty percent of the time, I'll be happy, 0:17:16.836 --> 0:17:19.556 fifty percent of the time I won't. Now, when I 0:17:19.596 --> 0:17:21.996 put it that way, it becomes obvious that you ought 0:17:21.996 --> 0:17:25.476 to quit because one path you're unhappy one hundred percent 0:17:25.556 --> 0:17:29.556 of the time, and another path you're unhappy fifty percent 0:17:29.556 --> 0:17:32.756 of the time. So it seems clear that you ought 0:17:32.756 --> 0:17:34.676 to go take the other job. But this is where 0:17:34.676 --> 0:17:37.916 the regret asymmetry comes in. Which is like, we're very 0:17:38.036 --> 0:17:41.396 tolerant of the unhappiness that occurs and just staying the course, 0:17:41.676 --> 0:17:44.676 and we're very intolerant of the unhappiness that might occur 0:17:44.996 --> 0:17:48.236 if we switch, and that they'll actually express that out loud. 0:17:48.276 --> 0:17:50.396 They'll say, but what if I take the new job 0:17:50.436 --> 0:17:53.796 and I'm unhappy, I'll feel like such an idiot versus 0:17:53.836 --> 0:17:55.596 staying the job that I know I hate and I 0:17:55.796 --> 0:18:01.036 already know have evidence I'm unhappy in Yeah. Right, we'll 0:18:01.036 --> 0:18:03.276 be back in a moment with a slight change of plans, 0:18:03.516 --> 0:18:07.116 when Annie will share scientific strategies you can use to 0:18:07.236 --> 0:18:17.876 quit more often and sooner. One of the things that 0:18:17.916 --> 0:18:20.356 you said before that really struck me is around this 0:18:20.436 --> 0:18:23.676 concept of identity. And the reason is that so much 0:18:23.716 --> 0:18:26.716 of a slight change of plans is about our identity, 0:18:26.796 --> 0:18:29.996 how fixed we can feel in our sense of identity 0:18:30.236 --> 0:18:32.676 in the face of a big change, and how it 0:18:32.756 --> 0:18:34.556 is that we can navigate that. And one of the 0:18:34.596 --> 0:18:41.756 things you alluded to is we can sometimes resist quitting 0:18:41.916 --> 0:18:44.196 even when we know we ought to, because we attach 0:18:44.836 --> 0:18:49.116 that pursuit so closely to our identity, or we take 0:18:49.156 --> 0:18:52.396 so much pride in our identity as good decision makers. 0:18:52.716 --> 0:18:55.476 We don't like the idea of having it revealed to 0:18:55.556 --> 0:18:57.636 us that maybe we didn't actually make a great decision 0:18:57.636 --> 0:18:59.476 in the first place when we decided to do X 0:18:59.556 --> 0:19:01.716 or Y. And I'm wondering if you have tips for 0:19:01.836 --> 0:19:06.996 listeners about how it is that we can disentangle our 0:19:07.076 --> 0:19:10.596 sense of identity from these kinds of decisions or from 0:19:10.596 --> 0:19:13.516 the attachment we have towards certain pursuits, so that we 0:19:13.556 --> 0:19:18.356 can make clearer choices, more rational choices at these inflection points. 0:19:18.876 --> 0:19:20.956 So you talked about like, it's really hard for us 0:19:21.516 --> 0:19:26.196 to imagine that we made a bad decision, so we 0:19:26.276 --> 0:19:28.316 won't give it up. But I also want to add 0:19:28.316 --> 0:19:30.836 in there, sometimes we made a perfectly good decision but 0:19:30.956 --> 0:19:34.716 the circumstances have changed. But in that situation, we don't 0:19:34.756 --> 0:19:37.436 want to give up because somehow we think it invalidates 0:19:37.436 --> 0:19:39.076 the decision that we made in the first place, which 0:19:39.076 --> 0:19:41.876 isn't true. Remember, we're making decisions under uncertainty, and I 0:19:41.916 --> 0:19:43.476 think that's part of the problem is we forget that 0:19:43.516 --> 0:19:46.796 there's a third possibility, which is you made a perfectly 0:19:46.796 --> 0:19:49.076 fine decision and then you found out new stuff. And 0:19:49.076 --> 0:19:51.276 that's also by the true in relationships, like, given what 0:19:51.276 --> 0:19:53.236 you knew at the time, it seems like a really 0:19:53.236 --> 0:19:55.596 good match, and then you found out new stuff like 0:19:55.716 --> 0:19:58.636 that person might have changed. I think that's incredibly important 0:19:58.636 --> 0:20:03.276 for people to understand, is that sometimes stuff just changes. 0:20:04.556 --> 0:20:07.316 It's okay. Doesn't mean that you that you messed up 0:20:07.356 --> 0:20:09.956 in the first place, and and most of the time 0:20:09.996 --> 0:20:12.756 you didn't mess up in the first place. Mike, If 0:20:12.796 --> 0:20:15.516 you put a sign on your lawn for a candidate 0:20:15.876 --> 0:20:19.236 and then the candidate gets involved in some scandal, it 0:20:19.276 --> 0:20:20.916 doesn't mean it was like it was a bad decision 0:20:20.916 --> 0:20:22.236 for you to vote for them in the first place 0:20:22.236 --> 0:20:25.196 because you didn't know. Yeah, And I love the thought 0:20:25.276 --> 0:20:28.356 experiment that you give, which I think elucidates this concept well, 0:20:28.396 --> 0:20:32.276 which is when you ask people what's the best decision 0:20:32.276 --> 0:20:34.916 you've ever made? What's the worst decision you've ever made? 0:20:35.516 --> 0:20:37.756 We tend to not focus on the process by which 0:20:37.756 --> 0:20:40.236 we made the decision or the inputs to that decision, 0:20:40.276 --> 0:20:43.516 but instead what the outcome was. So what you found 0:20:43.556 --> 0:20:45.116 is you asked people what was the best decision, Well, 0:20:45.116 --> 0:20:47.036 they tend to choose the thing that had the best outcome, 0:20:47.756 --> 0:20:51.076 and vice versa for the bad one, and it's very possible. 0:20:51.156 --> 0:20:54.196 Like you said that, let's say you made actually a 0:20:54.236 --> 0:20:57.476 really crappy decision, but you just lucked out, right, like 0:20:57.716 --> 0:21:01.916 chance worked in your favor and new information appeared or whatnot, 0:21:01.996 --> 0:21:03.436 and you ended up with a good outcome. But I 0:21:03.476 --> 0:21:06.196 think that is a really helpful thought experiment, because to 0:21:06.236 --> 0:21:08.756 your point, you might have very well made the decision 0:21:08.796 --> 0:21:11.956 to take on a pursuit or support a certain candidate, 0:21:12.316 --> 0:21:14.716 and it was a very smart choice given all the 0:21:14.716 --> 0:21:18.236 information you had had at that moment, or or by 0:21:18.276 --> 0:21:22.236 the way your own preferences can change. I just want to, like, 0:21:22.276 --> 0:21:23.996 I want to make that really clear. Like I know, 0:21:24.076 --> 0:21:26.396 for me, like the things that I thought that I 0:21:26.436 --> 0:21:28.796 wanted for myself in my twenties are like very different 0:21:28.796 --> 0:21:32.036 than the things that I wanted for myself in my thirties. Yeah. 0:21:32.076 --> 0:21:36.876 So what's interesting there is that if somebody else were 0:21:36.916 --> 0:21:40.556 to look at the path you're on, Like if somebody 0:21:40.556 --> 0:21:42.396 else were to look at the decision about whether you 0:21:42.396 --> 0:21:44.636 should sell that stock or the decision about whether you 0:21:44.636 --> 0:21:48.236 should change careers, they'll often see that more clearly than 0:21:48.276 --> 0:21:52.436 you because they're not endowed to it. If you have 0:21:52.516 --> 0:21:56.396 somebody else looking at the decision. They don't have this, 0:21:56.716 --> 0:21:59.796 they don't have the dissonance. They don't. They don't. They're 0:21:59.836 --> 0:22:02.436 not worried about squaring your past actions with your future 0:22:02.476 --> 0:22:04.876 actions or your present actions. They're just worried about whether 0:22:04.916 --> 0:22:07.116 it's sort of the best decision for you going forward. 0:22:07.636 --> 0:22:10.116 So you can see that getting somebody else to look 0:22:10.116 --> 0:22:12.476 at the decision and help you with it is actually 0:22:12.516 --> 0:22:15.316 going to be really helpful. So, as the amazing Daniel 0:22:15.356 --> 0:22:17.836 Kneman No About laureate said to me, you should find 0:22:17.836 --> 0:22:19.796 someone who loves you but doesn't care about your feelings. 0:22:20.196 --> 0:22:23.396