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Speaker 2: Joining us down in studio Lindza pegx. She was stiffel,
Speaker 2: she was My comments of the year. Just brave, Brave,
Speaker 2: Brave Interviews twelve and eighteen months ago. Let's get brave
Speaker 2: here on PPI coming up in a moment. What's the
Speaker 2: character of our inflation? Is it an immovable feast up
Speaker 2: or down? Or is just a leadenness a resiliency to
Speaker 2: where we are in price change?
Speaker 3: I think right now inflation is experiencing some sort of
Speaker 3: a floor support. But around that floor we are going
Speaker 3: to continue to see movement. Any movement to the down
Speaker 3: side simply solidifies the Fed's growing concerns about the employment
Speaker 3: side of the equation, and really any upside risk, at
Speaker 3: least from a minimal standpoint, is going to maybe keep
Speaker 3: the FED still focused on acazing, but limit the amount
Speaker 3: of using For two of.
Speaker 2: Our listeners across the nation right now on YouTube on
Speaker 2: radio are saying she's nuts. They're looking at their day
Speaker 2: to day living and it screams inflation. Are we going
Speaker 2: to see that in four minutes? Are we going to
Speaker 2: see that tomorrow?
Speaker 3: As CPI, we've been seeing that for years, inflation is
Speaker 3: well above that two percent target. We're nowhere near getting
Speaker 3: back to that, and yet the Fed seemingly is abandoning
Speaker 3: their concern about inflation now shifting very furiously their focus
Speaker 3: on the employment data. I think if the Fed had
Speaker 3: stayed true to their mandate early on, we would be
Speaker 3: in a much better position from a broader economic standpoint.
Speaker 3: They stopped short of where they needed to raise rates
Speaker 3: back in the day. They've been slow playing it, and
Speaker 3: now we're still contending with this easing that we saw
Speaker 3: at the end of last year, exacerbating this underlying embeddedness
Speaker 3: of inflation in the economy.
Speaker 4: So what do you attribute that an inability to balance
Speaker 4: both at once over focusing on the inflation side of
Speaker 4: the mandate, and what does that tell us about the
Speaker 4: path forward here? You mentioned kind of the risks going
Speaker 4: forward when it comes to the labor market. What confidence
Speaker 4: should we have in the Fed's capacity to again balance
Speaker 4: both of these things going forward, as the labor market
Speaker 4: becomes something that it seems understandably is going to attract
Speaker 4: much more of their attention.
Speaker 5: Well, it's a.
Speaker 3: Delicate balance, So I don't want to say this is
Speaker 3: an easy job by any means. I think they're doing
Speaker 3: the best that they can. But I do think that
Speaker 3: the fed's focus should be and should have been, more
Speaker 3: fervently on inflation. And now at this point that window
Speaker 3: of opportunity is closing because the economy is losing some momentum,
Speaker 3: the labor market is losing some momentum, and the focus
Speaker 3: now is shifting, and that's going to I think retard
Speaker 3: or in some cases maybe even completely outright remove the fedsibility.
Speaker 2: Can we can we go NERD report?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 2: On a Slavsky Hicksian income substitution effect. I'm screaming that
Speaker 2: what we're seeing is a massive income effect of all
Speaker 2: of American economics right now, which will be a decline
Speaker 2: in our purchasing power. Do we see that now?
Speaker 5: Absolutely?
Speaker 3: Remember the consumption data that we're seeing, while still somewhat positive,
Speaker 3: somewhat stable, is not cost adjusted. So when we talk
Speaker 3: about a four percent retail sales number, we're not adjusting
Speaker 3: for buying twelve apples for one dollar or one apple
Speaker 3: for twelve dollars. Consumers are still out in the marketplace.
Speaker 3: They're still spending. There's still the backbone to the US economy,
Speaker 3: but we're getting there less for our money. Absolutely, we're
Speaker 3: taking home Lis just.
Speaker 2: Brilliant doctor pigs with us.
Speaker 5: You were at n y U, Right at Northwestern Northwestern?
Speaker 2: Excuse me started with an N. I could remember which
Speaker 2: a Northwestern football New York University ball? Right, Okay, I
Speaker 2: got a disinflationary report this morning. If I get the
Speaker 2: same view tomorrow with CPI, doesn't it scream fifty beeps
Speaker 2: and check a lot of boxes.
Speaker 3: I don't think it screams fifty basis points. I think
Speaker 3: it screams the Fed can cut policy by twenty five
Speaker 3: basis points. But remember, we're still talking about an elevated
Speaker 3: inflationary environment. One report getting US closer to two percent
Speaker 3: does not remove the thread of inflation, and I would
Speaker 3: argue that the risk of inflation still remains to the
Speaker 3: upside if we look out to the end of the
Speaker 3: year and the growth profiles higher than expecting. Right, consumers
Speaker 3: pick up spending in that key holiday spending season, businesses
Speaker 3: start passing along terarf related costs more than they have
Speaker 3: over the past couple of months. We're going to see
Speaker 3: inflation pick up and that's going to remove the Fed's
Speaker 3: ability to cut race Northwestern.
Speaker 2: You've got the magic of Robert Gordon in others. I mean,
Speaker 2: there's a huge historical bent there. Have we seen this
Speaker 2: before or is this original charactory?
Speaker 3: I think this is a new type of market. We've
Speaker 3: never seen this environment post COVID with a forty percent
Speaker 3: explosion in the money supply, with this type of change
Speaker 3: in fiscal policy coming down the pipeline. This is a
Speaker 3: new type of market that is trying to absorb these
Speaker 3: massive inflationary pressures that have been in place for a
Speaker 3: number of reasons over a number of years, and the
Speaker 3: Fed continues to seem tolerant of above target inflation.
Speaker 2: David, the revisions come out and they too show a
Speaker 2: modest disinflation as well. That'll put a little fire on this.
Speaker 4: We're hearing the Interactive Broker's studio. You're in Chicago. What's
Speaker 4: the reaction to this? On Sathless Salle Street in Chicago,
Speaker 4: Austin gools Be telling us last week he wanted to
Speaker 4: see these numbers. These numbers were going to be important
Speaker 4: for him as he makes his way to Washington next week.
Speaker 4: How does this do you think change his sense of
Speaker 4: the calculus here going forward?
Speaker 3: Well, I think the Fed is going to look at
Speaker 3: these figures and say there's it's not a material upside
Speaker 3: risk to inflation, at least not this month. And given
Speaker 3: the material decline in the labor market data that we've
Speaker 3: seen as of late, the three month average right round
Speaker 3: thirty thousand jobs per month, that's going to be enough
Speaker 3: to justify a rate cut next week. I don't think
Speaker 3: it's enough to justify fifty basis points, but twenty five
Speaker 3: basis points, with possibly a couple descents in favor of
Speaker 3: a larger cut. But going forward, it's going to continue
Speaker 3: to depend on the evolution of the employment data and
Speaker 3: the inflation side of the equation, which has far from
Speaker 3: been satisfied at this point.
Speaker 2: You are celebrating with your time off a new issuance
Speaker 2: of offspring as well, and there's a whole affinity here
Speaker 2: to Julie Andrews and the sound of music. Are there
Speaker 2: going to be seven Lindsay's I mean, are we heading
Speaker 2: for seven.
Speaker 5: K three is where we're going to cap it.
Speaker 4: I think that's the case. Just to lead a governess
Speaker 4: and a lot more.
Speaker 2: Help Julie Andrews to show up, but either careful.
Speaker 3: Of those of Childcares is going on things.
Speaker 5: That's a real no no, it's it's doubled.
Speaker 2: To congratulations from all of us within Lindsay Jason really
Speaker 2: really appreciated. Doctor pigs is with Steve Wall Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Nick Ackerman joins us, now starting his career in the
Speaker 2: depth of Watergate, but far more than that, working in
Speaker 2: corporate law in fraud. We are honored he could be
Speaker 2: with us today. David Girl, why don't you bring in
Speaker 2: the esteem mister Ackerman?
Speaker 4: Well, Nick, great to speak with you, and I took
Speaker 4: your council quite a bit over the course of the
Speaker 4: first Trump administration on all matter of legal issues when
Speaker 4: I was at another network. It's great to speak with
Speaker 4: you once again. You're another year. Let's secret, it's about traitor.
Speaker 4: All of this on two words for cause. Help us
Speaker 4: understand here the case that Lisa Cook and her attorney,
Speaker 4: Aviy Lowell are trying to make here, and the difficulty
Speaker 4: of proving that as we get to the appeal stage
Speaker 4: of this, maybe all the way up to the Supreme Court.
Speaker 7: Well, it's not that difficult. Actually, for cause on the
Speaker 7: judge in the District Court interpreted that to me, and
Speaker 7: it has to be something some kind of malfeasance during
Speaker 7: the time that Lisa Cook was actually serving on the
Speaker 7: Federal Reserve Board. She went through the legislative history, looked
Speaker 7: at the what was intended in the Amendment to the
Speaker 7: Federal Reserve Act back in nineteen thirty five. I looked
Speaker 7: at the fact that what Congress was concerned about was
Speaker 7: malfeasance in office. So as a matter of law, she
Speaker 7: found that four cause can only relate to the time
Speaker 7: period that Lisa Cook was in office, and this all
Speaker 7: allegedly occurred prior to her appointment as a Federal Reserve
Speaker 7: Board member.
Speaker 4: Nick, you know, well, there are many of these agencies
Speaker 4: that have some degree of independence from the administration or
Speaker 4: from Congress in Washington. The Supreme Court is should a
Speaker 4: decision a few months back in which it noted that
Speaker 4: the fens independence is a unique one and a special one.
Speaker 4: How is that going to shape what happens here going forward?
Speaker 4: If this does in fact make its way to the
Speaker 4: Supreme Court, how will that color the decision that those
Speaker 4: nine justices made.
Speaker 7: Oh, I think that's the bottom line. The fact that
Speaker 7: the Supreme Court, I think it was in Wilcox has
Speaker 7: already said that it was essentially dicta in another decision,
Speaker 7: but I think everyone agrees, and the District Court opinion
Speaker 7: made a very strong case for the notion that Congress's
Speaker 7: intention in creating the Federal Reserve Board, well over one
Speaker 7: hundred years ago at this point, was done in order
Speaker 7: to keep it independent from the ongoing politics of the nation.
Speaker 7: The fact that the person is appointed to a fourteen
Speaker 7: year term, the fact that it was only a person
Speaker 7: could only be removed for cause that really, I think
Speaker 7: is going to color this straight up through.
Speaker 2: Nick I had a hockey injury during Watergate, and I
Speaker 2: was flat on my back that summer where we leisurely
Speaker 2: went through meetings in Sammervan and Howard Baker and all
Speaker 2: the rest of it. Those days are gone. Now we
Speaker 2: want to be at the Supreme Court in three and
Speaker 2: a half days. Nick Ackerman, how has our law changed
Speaker 2: because we're so damn in a rush?
Speaker 7: Well, I think it's the Supreme Court with their docket this.
Speaker 7: I mean they decide things on stays very rapidly without
Speaker 7: full briefing. I mean it just is not right. Get
Speaker 7: the Watergate thing with the repeal on the tapes went
Speaker 7: very quickly. The whole thing occurred within a seven month period,
Speaker 7: which in terms of normal litigation was really fast. But
Speaker 7: today people are running up to the Supreme Court immediately.
Speaker 7: In the shadow docket that the Supreme Court has fostered
Speaker 7: allows for instant opinions without really a good opinion, not
Speaker 7: a substantial.
Speaker 2: How does the Chief Justice defend the institution and the
Speaker 2: remainder of the Roberts term, the Roberts era.
Speaker 7: I think it's very difficult because when you're not actually
Speaker 7: writing full opinions, explaining your reasoning, giving both sides an
Speaker 7: opportunity to put in a full briefing. There's a reason
Speaker 7: for all of that. It's so that these issues, which
Speaker 7: are very important can be decided in a normal course
Speaker 7: where everybody has a chance to actually put best foot forward.
Speaker 2: One final question. I got to get this in Michael
Speaker 2: Barr's Waiting for the News with mister Ackerman. This is
Speaker 2: too how political our appeals courts because so and so
Speaker 2: appointed this judge or that judge.
Speaker 7: I think they come down to being very political in
Speaker 7: the sense that this was not something that we looked
Speaker 7: at back during the days of Watergate. There are judges
Speaker 7: that are appointed specifically because they wrote particular articles on
Speaker 7: an issue that appeals to the president. I think they're
Speaker 7: much more political than they were, and certainly the Supreme
Speaker 7: Court comes across now.
Speaker 2: As David said at the beginning of this conversation, we're
Speaker 2: just thrilled in hunted you could be with us. Nick Eckerman,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for giving us needed perspective here
Speaker 2: among amidst this legal moment. I should say, stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple,
Speaker 1: Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on.
Speaker 2: YouTube the late Vince Ferrell, who I abdored. He was
Speaker 2: on Wall Street Week with lu Lu Kaiser. Vince Ferrell
Speaker 2: and I used to be in tears laughing about how
Speaker 2: many kids we were still paying their iPhones for. Here
Speaker 2: to brief us this morning, tone down with a new
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh Pirates cap is Dan Ives. For those of you
Speaker 2: on radio, you're lucky. What's the p on your hat?
Speaker 8: It's Arnold Palmer had from arn Palmer torn him big,
Speaker 8: big arma Palmer fan.
Speaker 2: Let's get this out of the way. You signed as
Speaker 2: a chairman of a crypto thing this week. Explain what
Speaker 2: the game is you're doing there? Yep.
Speaker 8: So you know we announced that I'm gonna be chairman
Speaker 8: of EKO and a KO. You know is you know
Speaker 8: when you think about Sam Alman in the build out
Speaker 8: of World, what Dave essentially done is it's really gonna
Speaker 8: be the infrastructure authentic keys for AI in the future.
Speaker 8: And you know, I was a huge believer in this.
Speaker 8: You know, I'm not taking this on just for any
Speaker 8: crypto equity in This.
Speaker 2: Is a rasearch channelist. This is a sidecard deal.
Speaker 8: Yeah, this is this is a total separate initiative. Uh,
Speaker 8: you know, total separate from my web bush. But but
Speaker 8: Tom factors really into my view of the AI revolution.
Speaker 8: I'm doing this because I think this is going to
Speaker 8: be the fact of standard for really you're going to.
Speaker 2: Take a minority interest in perplexity. If they called you,
Speaker 2: we need.
Speaker 6: As long as it comes through Keen.
Speaker 4: Earlier this week was a corrugated packaging company.
Speaker 8: It basically is a treasury vehicle for world Coin in
Speaker 8: terms of what we've done, and that's why I think.
Speaker 8: You know, receptions obviously been great. You know, we raised
Speaker 8: capital and closed that this morning. Okay, it was super
Speaker 8: exciting to just put another you want to talk.
Speaker 4: Now this appears, which is like Worldcoin, it's a means
Speaker 4: of authentication. You have your iris scane to know that
Speaker 4: you're the person that you say you are.
Speaker 2: Glad you know, well, okay, that's enough so that there's
Speaker 2: a stor involved to bring the orb for community next time.
Speaker 2: What did mag five learn from the Oracle pop last night?
Speaker 8: This AI party, it's ten pm going to four am.
Speaker 8: I mean, the point is the infrastructure was that's gonna
Speaker 8: be historic quarter when you look at work and it
Speaker 8: shows the type of cap backs we're seeing and the
Speaker 8: use cases are exploding.
Speaker 6: We've talked about so much here in the Change My Life.
Speaker 2: I mean as simple as that.
Speaker 8: Look and the reality is anyone that thinks hype not real.
Speaker 8: That oracle number is a validation. That's a drop the
Speaker 8: mic from Saffra and Ellison. That shows to me what's
Speaker 8: going to happen the rest attack and it ze Brahmin.
Speaker 2: Did we have a drop the mic moment with mister
Speaker 2: Cook yesterday? I tuned in for twelve seconds. It's so manipulated.
Speaker 2: I can't watch it. You and had Ludlow saw were
Speaker 2: your thumbs up, like Gene Mounster.
Speaker 8: Look, it's a thumbs up relative to I think expectations.
Speaker 8: Our view here is that the elf in the room
Speaker 8: continues to be as we talk about AI.
Speaker 6: But I do believe with the DOJ Google situation now you.
Speaker 8: Know in the rearview mirror, they will double down then
Speaker 8: and that's going to be ultimately their AI partnership. But
Speaker 8: in terms of the actual iPhone, look, three hundred million
Speaker 8: plus have an upgrade four plus years. The point is
Speaker 8: this is going to be includes John Tucker, including talker.
Speaker 8: So if you think about on a scale one to
Speaker 8: ten from an upgrade cycle. Super cycle being a ten,
Speaker 8: it's probably going to be about an eight point five.
Speaker 8: But what I tell you is the street right now
Speaker 8: numbers are conservative. New York City cab driver or uber
Speaker 8: is still barished on Apple, and I think that to
Speaker 8: me sets it up well as well as you add
Speaker 8: AI and they actually make a big move there. You
Speaker 8: tell about another you know, one hundred dollars per share
Speaker 8: to the stock.
Speaker 4: What does Apple have to do when it comes to AI?
Speaker 4: So I look at Meta for instance, and they pay
Speaker 4: a lot of money. They're hiring a lot of big
Speaker 4: name people. And I think if you look at the
Speaker 4: history of Apple that had a bad luck of bringing
Speaker 4: in outside talent, particularly the executive level, to mix things up,
Speaker 4: to change things around, are they able to do that?
Speaker 4: What do they have to do to kind of re
Speaker 4: establish themselves here at the vanguard of AI.
Speaker 8: Look, there's a better chance of me playing in Beth
Speaker 8: Page Ryder Cup in September then AI innovation happening from Apple,
Speaker 8: and I think that's the issue that they got to
Speaker 8: go outside.
Speaker 6: It has to be good.
Speaker 4: You're a way to make that work.
Speaker 2: Danae with Wedbush with us this morning. David Gerntin can
Speaker 2: good Morning across the nation and the way you listen
Speaker 2: to us on radio good Morning nineties to nine FM
Speaker 2: in Boston, on YouTube and your home at your office.
Speaker 2: Floored by the sign up, Thank you so much, Bloomberg
Speaker 2: podcast Go out to YouTube and subscribe it Bloomberg Podcasts.
Speaker 2: Thank you for your attention to our new dan ives
Speaker 2: like digital. Maybe I should start wearing bright pink. What
Speaker 2: do you think, David?
Speaker 4: I could see that.
Speaker 6: Why don't you continue with mister? I've talked about the
Speaker 6: pink both for I know what.
Speaker 4: The hoodie beneath the jacket would be a good look
Speaker 4: for you.
Speaker 8: I think when I thought Dan I have's clothing, we
Speaker 8: could add potentially a bow tie and it would be called.
Speaker 2: Everything is like two X. You know, it's like for
Speaker 2: little people. What's the name of the company.
Speaker 6: It's snow milk. My cost snow milk.
Speaker 2: They got to make like adult sizes like we we
Speaker 2: have X six X.
Speaker 8: I think we go down the route with a keen
Speaker 8: bow tie. I have been I'm actually advocate.
Speaker 2: Very good David jump in.
Speaker 4: Can I go back to Oracle? I diverted over to
Speaker 4: to appled love to go back to Oracle, what should
Speaker 4: make How quickly they were able to make this this pivot,
Speaker 4: What does it say about sort of the future direction
Speaker 4: of Oracle moving into cloud computing as rapidly as it did,
Speaker 4: as successfully as it did. Certainly when you look at
Speaker 4: the numbers.
Speaker 8: Of guess who's watching course, so you see what they did,
Speaker 8: it's Benioff, it's Adobee, it's software where right now they're
Speaker 8: not the cool kids table.
Speaker 6: I mean, what Oracle has been able to.
Speaker 8: Do because of the stack right it's it's been transformational.
Speaker 8: And I think that more is where we're seeing. Everyone
Speaker 8: wants that. That two to three trillion of cap backs,
Speaker 8: everyone wants it.
Speaker 2: Doug Cass emails in Okay, he's beside himself about the
Speaker 2: Yankees defense. They're averaging like three years a game. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's said Aaron Judge should be at first base, Dan ives.
Speaker 2: Dougcass has a question for you, the backlog dynamics versus
Speaker 2: the accounting on the statements. Is this an accounting issue
Speaker 2: to come not only for Oracle but for other mags
Speaker 2: seven and then there's so much future business that needs
Speaker 2: to adjust in the accounting statement. Is that a risk?
Speaker 6: And I hope Doug's doing well. It's a good question.
Speaker 8: I think there's definitely some normalization that's going to have
Speaker 8: to happen there over the coming quarters. So you got
Speaker 8: to normalize it, you know, from a backlog perspective in
Speaker 8: terms of arr Look, I think the reality is is
Speaker 8: that over the coming quarters, that's where like look for Oracle,
Speaker 8: if you got if you're the amount of stock that
Speaker 8: could go to three P fifty four hundred. You got
Speaker 8: to continue to show this because you as the normalization
Speaker 8: starts to happen, the comps ultimately start taking place.
Speaker 6: You need to continue to see that growth.
Speaker 2: You mentioned Google and uh Gemini, what are they waiting for?
Speaker 8: They were waiting they were waiting for DOJ I mean
Speaker 8: that and now the candleight dinner could happen between soon
Speaker 8: Dar and Cook. And I believe that is Look because
Speaker 8: I truly and we've talked about, if the dog went
Speaker 8: negative toward an Apple Google, then they have no choice
Speaker 8: called perplexity on the red phone and they have to
Speaker 8: do that deal. But now I think they double down.
Speaker 6: The joy they're.
Speaker 2: Waiting for is it literally like just Egos, they have
Speaker 2: to wait a little bit of time.
Speaker 8: I think you wait a little time look. And we
Speaker 8: also know in Cooper Tino there is a part of
Speaker 8: it that runs like a motor vehicle in New Jersey,
Speaker 8: and that's been some of the issue in terms of
Speaker 8: some of the bureaucracy that they're trying to get rid
Speaker 8: of in terms of the red tape.
Speaker 4: Going back to the Oracle numbers, So say sundors tuning
Speaker 4: in to watch Romain and numbers yesterday, or Andy stole
Speaker 4: it up in that Seattle What do they make those
Speaker 4: Oracle numbers? How much are they worried about the progress
Speaker 4: that Oracles made here?
Speaker 8: And how do they I think they actually love seeing
Speaker 8: those numbers because they view it. And that's why, like
Speaker 8: what you see with Google's gc B, it's it's a
Speaker 8: barometer that shows where that's coming. That's why Nadella, he's
Speaker 8: sitting there with the Mimosa right now watching those numbers.
Speaker 2: I mean, and I do you want to mention Oracles
Speaker 2: put their support by in Bloomberg Surveillance. We thank Oracle
Speaker 2: for their support each and every day. What's your single
Speaker 2: best buy?
Speaker 8: I mean to me, single best buy here continues to
Speaker 8: be Microsoft just because of my view of because of
Speaker 8: where the hyperscalers are it's in their backyard. Stock actually
Speaker 8: sold off a little postcord and I think that's one
Speaker 8: they will ultimately join in video.
Speaker 6: What's eventually gonna be there.
Speaker 2: Twenty this year and you say way more.
Speaker 8: Just to we've talked about it's just to beginn We
Speaker 8: are in the second inning of the AI Revolution, going night,
Speaker 8: and we've talked about the party start at nine pms.
Speaker 6: Now ten pm goes to four am.
Speaker 8: On the dance for is Noadella Jensen, pound On tear
Speaker 8: carp and others people.
Speaker 2: The guy who says a romantic life. Let's make it
Speaker 2: clear you just got off the romantic red eye.
Speaker 8: I just got off them, Carol and Tim. Right, Yeah,
Speaker 8: I was there rocking to and actually I went. I
Speaker 8: went from Australia to Huntington Beach to now here with you.
Speaker 4: Guys appreciate that Lafe flat beds as you were talking
Speaker 4: about yesterday.
Speaker 2: But he's a little guy. It's like it's a little guy. No, No,
Speaker 2: the Lafe flat bed works. There's no late flat bed
Speaker 2: for me.
Speaker 8: Yeah, but the problem is that's why you're the one
Speaker 8: that does like the special cabin and emerates.
Speaker 6: So the play.
Speaker 8: The Keen cabin and the whole King shower in the Disclosure.
Speaker 2: Law Premiere Air France. But which ray It's like a
Speaker 2: huge cabin.
Speaker 6: Of course, but you set a higher standard.
Speaker 2: It does. I don't know. I don't know. Some tennis
Speaker 2: player was sitting next to me.
Speaker 6: It's actually it's actually Keyn's whorld. We all pay rent. Jos.
Speaker 6: Thank you for.
Speaker 2: Exploding on whatever your new business transaction is. I still
Speaker 2: don't keet Well.
Speaker 8: Deorb's coming to you soon and I'll bring it next time. Okay, Dan,
Speaker 8: I think that's really small. We'll bring the orban next time.
Speaker 8: Team will get skinned, Dani.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I'm gonna sell the show. Dan
Speaker 2: Hights web Bush Securities. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna set this up right now. There was a
Speaker 2: missile attack and Cutter, and my biggest problem with Cutter
Speaker 2: is we really don't know much about it. It's directly
Speaker 2: west of Dubai, sort of in between the Dubai and
Speaker 2: Riod it's his hunk of lands stuck out into the
Speaker 2: Persian Gulf, and David it's mostly expats. It's mostly it's
Speaker 2: such a place used to be in an economy rapt
Speaker 2: on gas and oil that it's not that many Katari's
Speaker 2: and a lot of X pass and about other than that.
Speaker 2: Our knowledge base is they run an airline where you
Speaker 2: see those genormous planes landed on big Jet TVA the Heathrow.
Speaker 2: That's a knowledge.
Speaker 4: And then we get to the broad strokes description of
Speaker 4: the huge, huge news yesterday, huge news Israel in strikes
Speaker 4: trying to take out leadership of hamas in in doa
Speaker 4: and certainly unprecedented and really raising a lot of concern
Speaker 4: throughout the region around the world. We of the President
Speaker 4: of United States saying he was not happy with how
Speaker 4: this had all unfolded. The US apparently was tipped off
Speaker 4: to the attack happening, but very soon before before it did,
Speaker 4: wasn't consulted before all of that. I want to bring
Speaker 4: it down, Leslie Polton Gusman. It foundered Energy Vista also
Speaker 4: a senior non resident felt the Center for Strategic International
Speaker 4: Studies talk more about this and the effects that it's
Speaker 4: having on the region. This comes on the heels of this,
Speaker 4: this OPEC announcement boosting outflows of oil. What does all
Speaker 4: of this mean for the energy market? We have been
Speaker 4: through this conflict now for more than seven hundred days,
Speaker 4: going back to October seventh, and there's been concern all
Speaker 4: the way that this could have a profound impact on
Speaker 4: the energy market. So far it really hasn't. Does this
Speaker 4: stand to change that calculus or the way the energy
Speaker 4: market looks in any way?
Speaker 5: Well, thanks for having me back.
Speaker 9: I think it was most likely an orchestrated attack, and
Speaker 9: as a result, we're not likely to have short term
Speaker 9: market implication, especially for catoric gas and energy and pricing globally,
Speaker 9: because Katar remains one of the world's largest energy exporter. However,
Speaker 9: it's going to have implications for its long term expansion plans.
Speaker 5: Katar is expanding.
Speaker 9: Massively its export capacity in the coming years and has
Speaker 9: not marketed all of it, and this underscores is vulnerability
Speaker 9: because of its location and because of the vulnerability of
Speaker 9: its shipping routes that we've seen over the past two years.
Speaker 5: Since the wars in.
Speaker 9: The Middle Easts have you know, surged from in different
Speaker 9: neighborhood countries.
Speaker 5: We've seen also in Iran.
Speaker 9: Iran attacking Katar in June also an orchestrated attack. So
Speaker 9: I think it really puts in plain sight Qatar's reliabilities.
Speaker 4: Tom laying out again in broad strokes sort of what
Speaker 4: goes on in cutter and let me dig into that
Speaker 4: a bit more. We had the present Nighted States going
Speaker 4: there on this big trip and really playing up the
Speaker 4: fact that it's a source of investment and a place
Speaker 4: that he's really seized on is an important ally, and
Speaker 4: the region of course has the largest military base in
Speaker 4: the US military base in the Middle East as well.
Speaker 4: How do you see that the geopolitics unfolding here kind
Speaker 4: of is playing this huge role here in trying to
Speaker 4: negotiate some sort of solution to that conflict in Gaza.
Speaker 4: They're upset, the US as upset. What does it mean
Speaker 4: just for the broader geopolitical relationships here.
Speaker 9: I think Katar has a very ambiguous geopolitical standing. On
Speaker 9: one hand, it hosts US military base and on the
Speaker 9: other hand, it keeps strong ties with Western enemies such
Speaker 9: as Iran. Ramas, the Husi, the Muslim Brotherhood, and it's
Speaker 9: financing in Europe for example.
Speaker 5: I think what we've.
Speaker 9: Seen right now is Israel really coming out with its
Speaker 9: new military defense strategy since October seven, preemptively deterring any
Speaker 9: threats and trying to accomplish its war goals before the
Speaker 9: markup of the two years anniversary, I mean side anniversary
Speaker 9: of October seven.
Speaker 2: Let me ask the dumb American question, because I am
Speaker 2: the dumb American. Are they on our side? When you
Speaker 2: look at Bahring Cutter Kuwait, you look at shores of
Speaker 2: the Persian Gulf, are those guys are they on our side?
Speaker 5: I think that's the best question.
Speaker 9: And okay, yes, and I'm so happy you asked this
Speaker 9: question because I think eventually there is going to be
Speaker 9: more scrutiny on Katar and they will need to pick
Speaker 9: a side because this ambiguity geopolitically serves them as any
Speaker 9: middle small power. But you know, it's it cannot last
Speaker 9: because there is this rivalry between China and the US
Speaker 9: because there is too much at stake and the economics,
Speaker 9: you know, side of things. So it's definitely a critical
Speaker 9: question for the coming United.
Speaker 2: Airb memorates and complexities of the five tribes. Have Dubai
Speaker 2: have Abu Dhabi? Have they picked a side?
Speaker 9: Not necessarily, But if you look at the Yemen Civil War,
Speaker 9: for example, Katar was definitely not on the southeast side,
Speaker 9: but was on the housy side. And right now you
Speaker 9: have many threats that are coming on the way to
Speaker 9: the US right and Katar is not on the right side.
Speaker 2: Distinction, Folks, Kura knew all that. What she just said
Speaker 2: to me, it's Greek. I'm like, really, continue, David.
Speaker 4: You know we we were talking earlier this week Ian
Speaker 4: Bremer view Ratio Group send out a note talking about
Speaker 4: this kind of reconfiguration of geopolitical alliances, and for so
Speaker 4: long he was talking about g zero and the dissolution
Speaker 4: of kind of alliance of world leaders. Help us understand
Speaker 4: what you saw as you watched the proceedings unfolded in
Speaker 4: Beijing a few days ago. So you had President she
Speaker 4: there with Kim Jong und and you had you had
Speaker 4: a Preme Minister Modi there, Vladimir Putin there as well.
Speaker 4: What is all of that signal to you, particularly from
Speaker 4: the vantage that you have of looking at this through
Speaker 4: the prism of.
Speaker 9: Energy time will tell us if it's a strategic bluff
Speaker 9: or a real deepening of the Joe economic alliance between
Speaker 9: Beijing and Moscow. I think it reminded me some of
Speaker 9: the Cold War statements, you know, preemptive statements, not much detail.
Speaker 9: You know, they haven't agreed on pricing, but they are
Speaker 9: here to come as a splash on the media on
Speaker 9: this you know, international stage and show that they this
Speaker 9: kind of corporation going on.
Speaker 2: Thank you for coming in. I learned a lot that
Speaker 2: you know that was really good.
Speaker 4: Agreed.
Speaker 2: I don't know how you do it. How do you
Speaker 2: know that cutter supported as you do too. You did
Speaker 2: a big take on at some point, Leslie. Thank you,
Speaker 2: thank you, Thank you. Leslie. Paltic Guzman with us with
Speaker 2: Energy Vista as well.
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