WEBVTT - His Support Is Dwindling :Jeff McCausland Talks To Armstrong & Getty

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<v Speaker 1>We have so clearly conveyed to President Putin that any

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<v Speaker 1>use of nuclear weapons will have severe consequences for Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>It will, it will of course totally changed the nature

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<v Speaker 1>of the conflict. It's not clear what NATO or the

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<v Speaker 1>US response would be if Russia used a nuclear tactical

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<v Speaker 1>weapon on the battlefield in Ukraine. What do you think

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<v Speaker 1>it should be? Well, I think the message to him

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<v Speaker 1>is if use nuclear weapon, it's a suicide weapon. And

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<v Speaker 1>and the response from NATO and the United States doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>have to be nuclear. So that first voice was the

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<v Speaker 1>guy who runs um what jin Stoltenberg NATO, Oh yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>he's the native right, And then then that was General McMaster.

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<v Speaker 1>After that, the question being asked to a whole bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of people over the last week or so, do you

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<v Speaker 1>think he'll use nukes? And what if he does? Too

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<v Speaker 1>horrible to contemplate, Yet we must, So let's contemplate it

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<v Speaker 1>with Dr Jeff mccaslins, CBS News, military consultant, founder and

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<v Speaker 1>CEO of Diamond six Leadership and Strategy llc UH. Dr

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<v Speaker 1>mccoughlin also Senior Fellow at the Stockdale Center for Ethical

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<v Speaker 1>Leadership at the Naval Academy. Jeff, always a pleasure. How

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<v Speaker 1>are you, sir? Doing well? Great with you guys. So

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<v Speaker 1>it is practically uncontemplatable, and yet we must the idea

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<v Speaker 1>that say, let's start with Vladimir Putin conducts a quote

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<v Speaker 1>unquote nuclear test and blows up something under the ocean.

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<v Speaker 1>On up through levels key of how what sort of

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<v Speaker 1>reaction could we expect to see? Well, if you made

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<v Speaker 1>an attack on Ukraine, I think the responses could be

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<v Speaker 1>pretty broad. Albeit it is not going to be totally

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<v Speaker 1>laid out in advance because one of the things that

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<v Speaker 1>you want to enhance the terrance to a certain amount

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<v Speaker 1>of ambiguity. But he will have to calculate how the

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<v Speaker 1>West would response. What could the West do well? The

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<v Speaker 1>first thing, if you would like a no fly zone

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<v Speaker 1>over Ukraine with NATO airplanes flying over Ukraine, I can't

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<v Speaker 1>think of a faster way to get there than the

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<v Speaker 1>Papa nuke on Ukrainian territory. If you'd like to see

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<v Speaker 1>NATO forces on Ukrainian territory at least providing direct logistical

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<v Speaker 1>and training support, something they've requested, again, a quick way

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<v Speaker 1>to get there. If you'd like to see a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of NATO ships in the Black Sea facilitating the export

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<v Speaker 1>of grain out of Ukraine. Two countries around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>you might get there. And obviously, in addition to that,

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Putin would have to calculate what would be the

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<v Speaker 1>response elsewhere. Is support around the world is dwindling as

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<v Speaker 1>this war goes on. Even the Chinese, I think are

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<v Speaker 1>providing the best sort of tacit support. There's been no

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<v Speaker 1>evidence of clear direct Chinese support except they buy a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of oil at heavily discounted prices. So if you

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<v Speaker 1>want to become the next, as Tom Freeman said, next

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<v Speaker 1>North Korea and totally isolate yourself internationally, that's waiting the

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<v Speaker 1>way to go. And then, last but not least, Mr

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<v Speaker 1>Putine might want to calculate the use of the nuclear

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<v Speaker 1>wepon Kreining a territory the winds blow from west to

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<v Speaker 1>east and that part of Europe most generally. So any

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<v Speaker 1>kind of a radioactive fallout would not only and as

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine of course and kill thousands of innicent civilians be

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<v Speaker 1>a criminal act, but a lot of that radio TV

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<v Speaker 1>could very clearly end up on Russian territory and on

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<v Speaker 1>Russian forces well. General Petraeus yesterday on ABC This Week

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<v Speaker 1>indicated that if he uses a tactical nuke, and he

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<v Speaker 1>didn't specify of what level, but if Putin uses a

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<v Speaker 1>tactical new we would wipe out everything on land and

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<v Speaker 1>see that we could identify. Do you think we would

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<v Speaker 1>go that far? And if we did, how long would

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<v Speaker 1>that take? Well, it depends, of course on what kind

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<v Speaker 1>of weapon and where it's done. I mean, you have

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<v Speaker 1>to calibrate response to some degree like that. But clearly

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<v Speaker 1>you know Dave's not off the mark. That would be

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<v Speaker 1>one of the calculations. But I come back to what's happened.

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<v Speaker 1>That is, the Buying administration privately has made it pretty clear.

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<v Speaker 1>So they claim to the Russians that the response would

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<v Speaker 1>be pretty overwhelming. They're never gonna lay it out very

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<v Speaker 1>close exactly what we're going to do, because to do

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<v Speaker 1>so undermines your deterrence. Some US suggested, for example, that

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<v Speaker 1>that Russians might do a demonstration strike. They might drop

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<v Speaker 1>one over the Arctic, because they might have dropped one

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<v Speaker 1>over the Black Sea to show how really angry they are.

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<v Speaker 1>I kind of doubt that's going to happen. When you

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<v Speaker 1>can I come back to Russian military doctrine, which I

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<v Speaker 1>studied a lot. Lessons say in their military doctrine, we

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<v Speaker 1>use a tax on nuclear weapon an effort to break up,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a static line of defense and for our addissary,

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<v Speaker 1>and then use that to do a rapid armor advance.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't have the forces left to do that, and

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<v Speaker 1>and bringing in untrained recruits what they're doing right now

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<v Speaker 1>is hardly going to enhance that effort. Furthermore, the Russian

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<v Speaker 1>army in that particular region is in pretty sad shape

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<v Speaker 1>right now. As a consequence, I don't think they're sophisticated

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<v Speaker 1>enough to protect themselves, resupply themselves at the nessary protective equipment, water,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera, to protect yourself in close proximity to a

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear attack. They would do a great deal of good. So,

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<v Speaker 1>as a student students of of real politic and UH

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<v Speaker 1>I have an enthusiasm for studying negotiation, I'm trying to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out how Ukraine and NATO achieve their goals while

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<v Speaker 1>giving putin on off ramp as they say that doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>include the use of nuclear weapons and and that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of thing. It's a it's a tough needle to thread

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<v Speaker 1>right now. Giving Putin. Given Putin's disastrous uh moves of light,

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<v Speaker 1>what do you picture as an end to this? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and you're exactly right. Oh, by the way, Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think the use of actnutru weapon for a second longer

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<v Speaker 1>is low probability. It's certainly not zero for sure. And

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<v Speaker 1>the problem you get into is, at what point does

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Putin say that, you know, backing off is such

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<v Speaker 1>a personal or national humiliating catastrophe that I'm willing to

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<v Speaker 1>you know, roll the cosmic, roll the dice with a

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear weapon, which might be some degree of success. How

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<v Speaker 1>blocked in? And are you Oh, by the way, this

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<v Speaker 1>is something John Kennedy worried about almost exactly sixty years

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<v Speaker 1>ago when we were going through the Cuban missile crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians in their response to the announcement by the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>that they have next this territory, you know, by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>Mr Putin is taking up his offerings, because what he

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<v Speaker 1>said in his speech on the thirtie was not only

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<v Speaker 1>these provinces now Russian territory, even though they don't go,

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, control the territory of those provinces, but

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<v Speaker 1>that is permanent. He called on the Ukrainians to go

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<v Speaker 1>to a ceasefire and come to the negotiations, but they

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<v Speaker 1>indicated that would be with them accepting the permanence of

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<v Speaker 1>that territory being transferred to Ukraine. Well, there's no way

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<v Speaker 1>in health right, frankly, the Ukrainians are going to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>In the Ukrainian response, again making this even more difficult,

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<v Speaker 1>was to say they hardly saw any possibility of negotiating

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<v Speaker 1>as long as Putin was still in charge in Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>There are the cons and CBS News military consultant on

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<v Speaker 1>the line. Go ahead, Jack, there are some headlines that

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<v Speaker 1>have just come out. Um, they're not from your best

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<v Speaker 1>media sources, but that a Russian nuclear train militrane has

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<v Speaker 1>been seen on the move. We'll see that turns out

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<v Speaker 1>to be verified or not, because that's one of the

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<v Speaker 1>things I heard Secretary Lloyd Austin and others talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>We've seen no uh, indication of them moving around the

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<v Speaker 1>forces or whatever that would lead us believe they're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>use nukes. But away from that topic, Senator Marco Rubio

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday said he's more concerned about a conventional sort of

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<v Speaker 1>strike on a NATO country, like are we prepared for

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<v Speaker 1>a response if Russia attacks a train station in Poland

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<v Speaker 1>that is, you know, where a lot of the supplies

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<v Speaker 1>are leaving from our that sort of thing, How how

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<v Speaker 1>do we respond to that because it's not you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not the clear red line of of of nukes

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<v Speaker 1>that the world might um you know, rally around. Do

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<v Speaker 1>we do we attack the same way or what happens? Then? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>of course that would invoke Article five was an attack

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<v Speaker 1>on one country as an attack on alcohol, and prudent

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<v Speaker 1>fully understands that. But I mean there's a variety of

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<v Speaker 1>ways that he can still escalate, and we've seen that

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<v Speaker 1>played out over the last week or so as well.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, and I happen to believe, though I can't

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely prove it that the attack on this UH pipeline

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<v Speaker 1>in the ball that he was done by the Russians.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I can't figure who else would do it. It

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<v Speaker 1>It was a sophisticated attack, requiring submersible drones or divers.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think al Qaeda's got submercible drones in the

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<v Speaker 1>Baltic right now. So I think that that was clearly

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<v Speaker 1>the Russians, but it's an effort for them to further

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<v Speaker 1>intimidate the Europeans over energy. Oh, by the way, they

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<v Speaker 1>did it only a day or so after a new

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<v Speaker 1>pipeline was opened between Norway and Poland, suggesting once again

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<v Speaker 1>the Europeans it could be a cold winner if you

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<v Speaker 1>don't force the Ukrainians to in fact come to the

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<v Speaker 1>negotiating table. They could do the attack, like Rubia suggested,

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<v Speaker 1>they could do a large scale cyber attack. They could

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<v Speaker 1>cause problems elsewhere, for example in the Balkans or with Moldova.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a variety of other things that Putin can do,

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<v Speaker 1>and he has in his toolbox to escalate. And I

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<v Speaker 1>trust that NATO leaders Washington included, are examining each one

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<v Speaker 1>of those and trying to think through what would be

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<v Speaker 1>our response and calibrating that based on what the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>actually do. So my final question is I I was

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<v Speaker 1>just reading that some of the Kremlin approved the channels

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<v Speaker 1>in Russia are actually stating that NATO troops are on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground in Ukraine fighting actively. We are already at

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<v Speaker 1>war with NATO. Is that sort of thing going to work?

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<v Speaker 1>It's all possible. Part of Russian propaganda and Mr Trutin's

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<v Speaker 1>speech announced in the annexation. He really described this more

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<v Speaker 1>and more as a conflict between the West and Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>even described the United States and the West as a tonic.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you ready for that uh? And suggested that in

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<v Speaker 1>fact it was the goal of Washington and NATO to

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<v Speaker 1>destroy Russia. But this is for domestic consumption back home,

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<v Speaker 1>don't forget more. Young Russians have fled the country since

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<v Speaker 1>he announced this three hundred man mobilization, then probably have

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<v Speaker 1>fought in the Ukraine since this war began, So he's

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<v Speaker 1>got to pay attention to domestic consumption and painting this

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<v Speaker 1>as a threat by the West, a threat to the existence,

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<v Speaker 1>rally to the motherland, all those kind of things. It's

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<v Speaker 1>the traditional thing the Russians have done, and Putin has

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<v Speaker 1>done it a couple of times during this crisis to

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<v Speaker 1>get the people behind this particular effort. Dr Jeff mccausl

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<v Speaker 1>and CBS News military consultant Jeff thinks has always really

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<v Speaker 1>enjoyed it. My pleasure. Armstrong and Jetty