WEBVTT - The Gamble with Iran. Faisel al Istrabadi talks to Armstrong & Getty 0:00:02.240 --> 0:00:04.920 When they are ready, they'll let us know, very simple, 0:00:05.400 --> 0:00:08.239 ready to do whatever, doesn't make any difference, whatever they 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:11.840 want to do. I'm ready. That's the President talking about Iran. 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:13.720 And we said to ourselves, we said, we need to 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:15.840 talk to somebody who knows a lot about that part 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:19.239 of the world, about what could be going on with us. 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:22.160 And Ran indeed a lot of strong statements, a lot 0:00:22.160 --> 0:00:24.439 of talking heads who don't have half an idea what 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:27.000 they're talking about. And then you have Ambassador face allil 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:29.880 Estra Body, who's the former Iraq Ambassador to the u 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:32.559 N one of the authors of that country's constitution and 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:37.120 director for the center of Something behind Sean's head. Thank you, 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:41.920 the Study of the Middle East at Indiana University. My apologies, 0:00:42.600 --> 0:00:45.720 Ambassador Alistra Body. How are you, sir? I'm very well, 0:00:45.720 --> 0:00:47.800 thank you, delighted to be with you again. Thank you. 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:50.960 It's been too long. So why don't we begin with 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:56.080 uh Iran and their their recent actions, their motivations, what's 0:00:56.120 --> 0:01:01.200 their game, what are their goals? Well, I think that 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:06.479 a couple of things. One, as is always the case, 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:11.040 regime survival is the number one priority. And there are 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:14.440 people in the US administration that have given conflicting signals 0:01:14.480 --> 0:01:18.280 about that. John Bolton, the National Security Advisor, very famously 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:22.120 wants regime change in Iran. Now it's interesting because the 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:25.560 President has said that he is not interested in regime change. 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:29.759 He only wants uh, he only wants UM to ensure 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:34.120 that Iran doesn't obtain a nuclear weapon. Now, the problem 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:37.280 with that is that the United States is actually transferring 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:41.959 nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia as we speak UM, and 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:46.839 so Iran will be looking back across the Gulf and saying, 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:51.120 uh uh, this doesn't look good for us. In the meantime, 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:55.120 they were um, actually complying with the terms of the 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.560 so called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is what 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:02.800 the President calls a nuclear deal, and very there is 0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:06.920 zero evidence that they were not in compliance with those terms. 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:10.480 It's the United States which went out of compliance and 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:15.639 withdrew unilaterally, couldn't even bring the UH European allies aboard. 0:02:16.000 --> 0:02:18.200 And so the Uranians are looking at this and saying, 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:22.680 what's our incentive for negotiating. We negotiated, we came to 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:26.520 an agreement, we abided by an agreement UM, and the 0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:29.520 other side violated it. So what assurances do we have 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:31.960 that if we negotiate again, we won't be in the 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:35.920 same position a year, two years, three years down the road. Um. 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:39.280 It's uh. It's one thing to renegotiate, it's another to 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:45.919 withdraw and reinstitute sanctions without a justification under the original 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:49.200 agreement at least um and then expect the other side 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:51.960 to negotiate again. It's it's a very tricky situation. The 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:54.880 President has put the US in um and the Iranians 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:57.280 aren't playing his game. Well, maybe that was the problem 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:59.720 with the agreement. I was watching Senator Mark Rubio make 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:03.360 a point yesterday that while they were in a compliance 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:05.680 with the agreement, as you just said, with the specifics 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:08.680 that we discussed, they were not in compliance with the 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:12.959 spirit of the agreement, and that they were continuing to 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:16.080 be the world's number one exporter of terror and be 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:18.240 involved in a bunch of things that we don't like. So, 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.080 how do you how do we do with that? Well, 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:28.560 the you deal with that as such? You don't that made. 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:30.080 First of all, there's no such thing as a spirit 0:03:30.120 --> 0:03:32.360 of an agreement. There's there's an agreement, and there are 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:35.800 terms of an agreement. And Senator Rubio knows that UM. 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.440 You know, you would be hard if if you had 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:44.000 made every payment on your on your mortgage on time 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:48.080 and in the proper amount. UM. You would feel mightily 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:50.920 put upon if your mortgage company foreclosed on your house 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:53.640 because it felt you were not in compliance with the 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:57.200 spirit of the mortgage agreement. There there are terms of 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.880 a mortgage agreement, and if you're either comply or you don't. 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:04.000 This is an international agreement that is sanctioned by UM 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:07.480 six countries seven if you include Iran, but five some 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:11.560 of America's closest allies, and the United Nations Security Council, 0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:14.520 on which the United States sits, where it along with 0:04:14.560 --> 0:04:17.880 four other powers, has a veto. You have never had 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:21.240 a guest on your show more critical of the Iranian 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:26.039 government and of its actions in the Middle East than I. 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:28.320 There may be others who hold it in the same 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:30.520 lower regard the government of Iran as I do, but 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:34.040 you've never had one that has holds it in lower 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:38.720 regard than I do. UM. But this isn't a game 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:43.159 of monopoly. This this is you know, playing at at 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:46.440 the highest level in the international community. And there's ways 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:49.720 of doing things. And what the President did in unilaterally 0:04:49.760 --> 0:04:54.560 withdrawing US generally, is not it, particularly because I can't 0:04:54.600 --> 0:04:59.000 tell what the strategy behind the United States actions is. 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:03.839 I know what the steps they're taking are, but sanctions 0:05:04.240 --> 0:05:08.240 are not a policy. What's the policy. I happen to 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:12.240 agree with the President's point of view on the previous agreement, 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:17.200 but walking away from it is an enormous gamble, by 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:22.120 the way, Donald Trump, candidate Donald Trump, agreed with that. Yeah. Look, 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:25.240 Jim Mattis general matters of former Secretary of Defense was 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:28.080 against the agreement, he thought, and he was out of 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:30.640 government at the time, of course, and he thought the 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:34.440 agreement that the Obama administration entered into was it was 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:38.760 a mistake. But he also thought withdraw and testified in 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.040 Congress when he was still Secretary of Defense that it 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:43.800 was it would be a strategic mistake for the United 0:05:43.800 --> 0:05:47.240 States to withdraw. And the problem and Trump said that 0:05:47.279 --> 0:05:49.279 as well. Well. What he said, he said it differently 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:51.800 when he was a candidate. What he said was it's 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:54.600 an international agreement. It involves our allies, and you can't 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.240 just walk away from an international agreement. He's right about that. 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:01.719 But if you do walk away, you would have thought 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:03.360 you would do it in a way that would bring 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.640 the allies on board, so there would be international support 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:13.360 other than Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Air Emirates. 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.880 The United States has no support for what for what 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:20.280 it did in walking away from the agreement, and therefore 0:06:20.440 --> 0:06:23.280 no way. You know, the United States maybe the sort 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:27.279 of eight hundred pound guerrilla in international affairs. But as 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:32.280 as Vietnam proved, I think two generations ago, our generation ago, um, 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.360 the United States still can't do it alone. It's it's 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:39.080 not strong enough to take on the entire world. Um, 0:06:39.200 --> 0:06:43.719 it needs allies to get its strategic objections objectives. Sorry, 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:48.320 it's strategic objectives accomplished. And here I don't even think 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.800 we know what those objectives are. How about we start 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:54.719 at the at the well at the top of this discussion, 0:06:54.720 --> 0:06:58.200 which would be Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Is that 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:00.760 something we should you hold them in low and low regard. 0:07:01.000 --> 0:07:03.000 Is that something we should just not allow, no matter 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:04.880 what the price is to pay, We just cannot let 0:07:04.920 --> 0:07:08.360 Iran have a nuclear weapon. Well, believe me as someone 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:11.160 as you know, in your introduction you played out I 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:14.720 was an ambassador from Iran's from the country that shares 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:18.679 a thousand mile border with Iran. I am the last 0:07:18.720 --> 0:07:21.520 one that wants to see Iran with a nuclear weapon, 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:26.880 but to to get us to that state, it would 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:31.640 help if the United States weren't transferring nuclear arms technology 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:35.440 to Saudi Arabia, Iran's chief rival in the region, and 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:40.200 we're also transferring nuclear technology. United States is transferring technology 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:43.960 to the United Arab Emirates as well, um another rival, 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:47.960 although a much relatively minor arrival compared to Saudi Arabia. 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:51.160 Quick question about that if forgive me for interjecting, but 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:56.240 is the hatred, the fear between Iran and Saudi Arabia 0:07:56.400 --> 0:08:03.120 primarily theological? The political? Sonny are So it's it's just 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:06.120 your good old yeah. So you had to say it's 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:09.400 it's geopolitics. A lot of the talking heads you were 0:08:09.400 --> 0:08:13.560 talking about it when you were introducing the topic. You can't, 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:15.880 I mean, you can't think about the Middle East without 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:20.320 thinking about religion. It's politics. When the Shah was was 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:23.640 was running Iran back until nine when the Middlers came 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:26.800 to power, you had the same tensions between him and 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:29.000 the other states, and he was as secular as you 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:34.040 I could hope for um. But so it's uh. But 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:37.160 by the way, if you want to know who started 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:41.000 the Iranian nuclear program, it would be a minor, little 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.120 country you might have heard of called the United States 0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:47.000 of America. Well, I've made mistakes through my life too, 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:50.920 I understand that. So whenever I hear about the nuclear 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:53.480 transfers we're doing the Saudi Arabia always sort of in 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:55.760 the back of my mind think what could go wrong? 0:08:56.040 --> 0:08:59.120 Ambassador facilel Istra, body is on the line from Iraq 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:03.000 ambassador to the U N Obviously we haven't mentioned a 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:06.440 little country there by the Dead Sea Israel. Uh. They 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:08.760 certainly have a voice in the region and have made 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:12.120 it utterly clear that they're not gonna wait till there's 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:15.040 a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv. They're going to strike Iran. 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:18.560 Do you take them at the word? Um? Not really 0:09:18.840 --> 0:09:22.280 for a technical reason. Um, they don't have the hardware 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.840 to do what would be necessary to do to take 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:29.880 out a any Iran any restarted Irani and nuclear program. 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:34.760 Um they there are they They were able to take 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:38.760 out the Iraqi program back in the eighty two. I 0:09:38.800 --> 0:09:42.880 can't remember now because uh, well, the Iranians learned from 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:47.520 the lesson that Iraq, the mistakes Iraq made, Um, they 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:49.719 would need to First of all, they don't have a 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:53.160 refueling ability, they don't have the heavy bombers. They don't 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.800 have the heavy bombs. Um. It's the basically the only 0:09:56.840 --> 0:09:59.280 country that can do this as a United States. Which 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:01.959 is why I ne who's been trying to get the 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:04.760 US to do it for for for years. He's been 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:07.040 saying for more than a decade that Iran is a 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.840 year away from a nuclear bomb. Which is the odd 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:12.440 thing about withdrawing from the deal because the deal, for 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:14.439 all all its flaws, and I agree with you, it's 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:19.800 a it was a very flawed deal. Um. George W. 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:23.000 Bush walked away in two thousand and four. I think 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:26.360 it was from a much stronger deal. He refused to 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.280 sort of pull the trigger and make an agreement with 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.560 the Iranians, and the Iranians just kept working, and by 0:10:31.559 --> 0:10:35.280 the time Obama made his deal in two thousand fifteen, 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:37.720 the terms of the deal were much less in the 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:40.320 favor of the United States than if the United States 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:43.040 had made an agreement with Iran in two thousand four. 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:47.560 But that's the that's the hand uh we were dealt UM. 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:50.560 I agree with strengthening the deal. I think there was 0:10:50.640 --> 0:10:53.400 a way to try to make the deal a little 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:56.680 more permanent or more permanent or permanent, and to bring 0:10:56.840 --> 0:11:00.200 Iran within compliance with what's called the Additional Protocol Hall 0:11:00.240 --> 0:11:05.400 of the Non Proliferation Treaty. But a unilateral withdrawal without 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:08.360 the support even of the European Allies, much less Russia 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:11.200 and China as permanent members of the Security Council, I 0:11:11.200 --> 0:11:13.040 don't think was the way to do it. So I've 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:16.280 been reading a lot about the leader of the uh 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:22.040 Airb Emirates m S what's mb zz and and his 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:24.080 and his role in the Middle East, and now he 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:26.520 and MBS with Saudi Arabia are working together to try 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:29.440 to eliminate a Ran. So, uh this is a really 0:11:29.520 --> 0:11:32.880 high stakes game, isn't it. It's an extremely high stakes game, 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:36.760 and it's unfortunately one that the US is getting drawn into. 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:38.679 And I don't think there's a happy outcome for the 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.880 United States to be involved in these sorts of regional 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:46.400 regional disputes. The Crown Prince of the U a E 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:50.959 Is mb Z Mohammed bin zayat Um, and he is 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:53.640 sort of rumored to be kind of the mentor of 0:11:53.679 --> 0:11:56.880 the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. They're both, they both 0:11:56.920 --> 0:11:59.080 have the titles of Crown Prince, and they both run 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:02.360 their respective countries for a variety of reasons. UM. And 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:06.080 they are indeed taking on Iran. Keep in mind, they 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.200 have been trying to take on the whole sees of 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.160 Yemen for what is it for or five years now. 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:14.320 I can't remember exactly when the bombing started. I think 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.520 it was two thousand and fourteen, it might have been fifteen, UM. 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.760 And they haven't been able to take on a rebel 0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:24.080 group in a little country like Yemen, which they regard 0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:28.520 that little rebel group as one of Iran's proxies. If 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:31.640 they can't take them on effectively, I don't know how 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:34.360 they're going to take Iran effectively. And one of my 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:37.679 real fears. And keep in mind, I know you introduced 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.000 me as an Iraqi ambassador, and I was, but I'm 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.400 also a natural born citizen of the United States. I'm 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:44.800 a natural born citizen of both countries. So as an 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.640 American citizen born in the United States, I'm really concerned 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.880 that that that one or two regional powers in the 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.760 Middle East have a real interest in trying to draw 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:58.160 the United States into an armed conflict with Iran, and 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:04.080 I see no uh no United States national security interest 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:08.319 in getting into a shooting war with Iran, though improving 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.360 the deal with Iran is certainly in the American interest 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:15.040 if it can be done through diplomacy. Facil Istrobody, former 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.000 Rock Ambassador to the u N Director to the Center 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.559 for the Study of the Middle East at Indiana University, Sir, 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:22.880 it's always enlightening. We sure appreciate the time. Thanks a million. 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.599 It's always a pleasure. I enjoy it very much. Thank you. Okay, 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:31.200 follow up discussion, cetera. To come stay with us.