Speaker 1: Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host,
Speaker 1: Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan
Speaker 1: Harris eighty. It is time to break down some of
Speaker 1: our favorite and our least favorite bets for the week
Speaker 1: ten NFL slate and with me to talk about it
Speaker 1: all is Adam Burke, a sports betting writer at bangbook
Speaker 1: dot com and host of Bang the Book Radio. You
Speaker 1: can follow him on Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam, thanks
Speaker 1: for coming back on how's it going?
Speaker 2: Absolutely, it's going well man. How you doing good?
Speaker 1: I think you might have been our first two time guest,
Speaker 1: and you were definitely our first three time guests, So
Speaker 1: I mean.
Speaker 2: This is third times a charm, right.
Speaker 1: You've got a big reputation here, so you can't let
Speaker 1: us down. This is a big one here. It's a
Speaker 1: tough week. We were just talking about it before we
Speaker 1: started recording. You've got six teams on a buy. There
Speaker 1: aren't that many games to choose from, so we really
Speaker 1: need to figure out a way to bring it right here.
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill? Alrighty. For the Thursday episode,
Speaker 1: Adam and I are going to be make some of
Speaker 1: our favorite bets against the spread or on the over under.
Speaker 1: We'll list a game to avoid, and then we'll give
Speaker 1: our favorite prop bet. But we are nothing if not
Speaker 1: accountable here at the Betting Bros Unfel podcast, so let
Speaker 1: us very quickly review last week. I hit on the
Speaker 1: Jets and the Dolphins over forty one and the Eagles
Speaker 1: Bears under forty two, but thanks to Adam Vinitari, I
Speaker 1: missed on the Colts laying one to the Steelers. I
Speaker 1: also whiffed on what I admitted was a very big
Speaker 1: reach on a prop bet after I'd hit like five straight,
Speaker 1: which was Robbie Anderson over one hundred and twenty five
Speaker 1: receiving yards at plus four to twenty five against the Dolphins. Overall,
Speaker 1: I don't feel all that bad about last week. And
Speaker 1: while I did bet the Colts because I placed my
Speaker 1: bets at some point shortly before or after recording, the
Speaker 1: t Y Hilton injury changed things just a bit after that,
Speaker 1: so I admit I hedged a little bit prior to Sunday.
Speaker 1: As for our guests Rick Ryan, he whiffed on both
Speaker 1: the Redskins getting ten from the Bills, and the Bears
Speaker 1: getting five from the Eagles as well as Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: under fifty nine and a half rushing yards, but he
Speaker 1: did hit on the Raiders, laying two to the Lions. Now,
Speaker 1: listeners should also know that I have never heard anyone
Speaker 1: quite as upset about missing three of his four picks
Speaker 1: as Rich was. Seriously, he's probably listening, and Rich you
Speaker 1: need to get a hold of yourself anyway, Adam, you've
Speaker 1: been our guests a couple of times, as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: so I know you are ready to roll.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: Let's jump into it with Pick six, where we each
Speaker 1: give three of our favorite bets, either against the spread
Speaker 1: or on the over under. Start us off with one
Speaker 1: of your favorite bets of the weekend.
Speaker 2: All right, I'm just gonna run through these through my
Speaker 2: three here by rotation number, and I'll tell you what
Speaker 2: man game two fifty nine to two sixty Atlanta and
Speaker 2: New Orleans. I understand why this line is where it is.
Speaker 2: And you've got a Saints team playing as good as
Speaker 2: anybody in the NFL. The defense has been fantastic. Now
Speaker 2: they've got Drew Brees back, but painted thirteen across across
Speaker 2: most of the market there on that bettingpros dot Com
Speaker 2: Odd screen. I've got to look at Atlanta in this one.
Speaker 2: You got a New Orleans team coming off to buy that.
Speaker 2: Quite frankly, the way that they were playing, I don't
Speaker 2: think they wanted to buy. The defense had been great,
Speaker 2: you just got Breeze back, and then all this you're
Speaker 2: gonna stop for a week. And furthermore, everything went perfectly
Speaker 2: according to plan for New Orleans during that bye week.
Speaker 2: Green Bay lost, Minnesota lost, San Francisco looked human against Arizona.
Speaker 2: So now New Orleans in the driver's seat, not just
Speaker 2: for the number two seed, but possibly the number one
Speaker 2: seed in the NFC. I think this is a bad
Speaker 2: spot for them. I think they got fat and happy
Speaker 2: over the break. Atlanta chance to reset, refocus, maybe wipe
Speaker 2: the slate clean a little bit. For whatever reason, the
Speaker 2: Falcons didn't fire Dan Quinn and everybody kind of thought
Speaker 2: it was going to happen. Arthur Blank didn't want to
Speaker 2: do it, the GM didn't want to do it. Maybe
Speaker 2: they feel like he's still got this locker room here.
Speaker 2: They should get Matt Ryan back here this week, and
Speaker 2: he should be healthier than he was a couple of
Speaker 2: weeks ago when Matt Shab had to play. Atlanta is
Speaker 2: the only side for me in that game, and in fact,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wind up taking it, you know, in the
Speaker 2: super contest as well as personally.
Speaker 1: Man, I'm shocked by this one. I'll be honest. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't really have a prompart. The line is huge.
Speaker 1: It's a big line. Anytime you see double digits. Frankly,
Speaker 1: I like to kind of always take a look at
Speaker 1: the underdog just because there's so many ways for them
Speaker 1: to cover. I mean, it's just a million ways. When
Speaker 1: you look at the breakdown here of what we've got
Speaker 1: the it's fifty to fifty actually among the fifty eight
Speaker 1: experts who have put in picks, but the most accurate,
Speaker 1: the top twenty percent on the season are with you.
Speaker 1: They're sixty to thirty eight in favor of Atlanta. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: when I look at it, yeah, I can totally see it.
Speaker 1: But god, you are a brave man betting on Atlanta.
Speaker 1: That's sort of how I feel about it. If I
Speaker 1: have to pick a side, I'll go with Atlanta. I
Speaker 1: agree with that, but you know, to make it one again,
Speaker 1: it's slim Pickens this week to be fair. It's just suck.
Speaker 1: They have just shown absolutely nothing. My worry about it, frankly,
Speaker 1: is not so much the offense. I agree, Ryan's going
Speaker 1: to come back. You know, I think they can move
Speaker 1: the ball even against a tough defense, because you know
Speaker 1: DeVonta Freeman. The strength of the Saints defense is their
Speaker 1: run defense, not as much their past defense, although overall
Speaker 1: it's very strong. Freeman hasn't been doing anything on the
Speaker 1: ground whatsoever. He's held to like thirty yards or less
Speaker 1: the vast majority of his games. But on the passing
Speaker 1: side with Ryan back, which I agree, he's coming back.
Speaker 1: You know, Ridley's getting involved once the new is gone.
Speaker 1: Hooper is having a fantastic season. You always have Julio Jones,
Speaker 1: and Freeman's been great. My big worry, though, is their defense. Man,
Speaker 1: how are they ever gonna stop New Orleans offense? That's
Speaker 1: my only concern in this game.
Speaker 2: No, I completely agree. I think it's a fair concern,
Speaker 2: And I don't know, maybe you're maybe one of the
Speaker 2: totals you like here could potentially be the over in
Speaker 2: this game. But again, I mean, I think you just
Speaker 2: have a Saints team that you upset the rhythm of
Speaker 2: a team. When all of a sudden you run into
Speaker 2: a bye week, you want to keep playing week after
Speaker 2: week after week, especially because in that Seahawks game they
Speaker 2: win by six on the road, although it really wasn't
Speaker 2: as close. The Cowboys they win by two, Buccaneers by seven,
Speaker 2: Jaguars by seven. Then they get a couple of lopsided
Speaker 2: wins and you start to feel like maybe this team
Speaker 2: just is dominant. But then they get that week off
Speaker 2: that kind of slows everything down a little bit. First
Speaker 2: of four straight division games in three and a half weeks,
Speaker 2: because they'll play Atlanta on Thanksgiving night on that short
Speaker 2: Thursday there the last week of November. Then they get
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers and the Colts. So I just
Speaker 2: think that the Saints just kind of have their eyes
Speaker 2: on a bigger prize a little bit further down the
Speaker 2: line here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I really don't have a problem with it, and again,
Speaker 1: most of those games did come without Drew Brees. But
Speaker 1: I agree with you. You know, they were rolling, they
Speaker 1: are playing well. You know, they're certainly either them or
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers seems like the team to beat
Speaker 1: in the NFC. So, I mean, I think we both
Speaker 1: agree they're gonna win, and probably win pretty handily here.
Speaker 1: For me, the big thing that I see on it
Speaker 1: is like I totally see the back door cover, the
Speaker 1: back door cover coming at the very end of it,
Speaker 1: just sort of Atlantic coming, you know, the Saints kind
Speaker 1: of backing off. Thirteen is just such a high number,
Speaker 1: and it's too high as to what it should be.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it should be closer to ten
Speaker 1: or eleven. But realistically it's hard for me to take
Speaker 1: the falcon. So I do appreciate your boldness, and if
Speaker 1: I am forced to choose a side, that would be
Speaker 1: the side that I would take as well.
Speaker 2: The one caveat that I would have here is if
Speaker 2: Atlanta comes out of the by and just gets completely
Speaker 2: blown away, and it's certainly a possibility. I mean, the
Speaker 2: line suggests it's a possibility. The body of work for
Speaker 2: both teams, as you just mentioned, if Atlanta gets trucked
Speaker 2: in this game, I cannot touch them the rest of
Speaker 2: the year, because if they don't show up here, I
Speaker 2: don't think they show up anymore here in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think really that's the difference with us.
Speaker 1: I think I reached that point like two weeks ago,
Speaker 1: you know, because I you know, I think I backed
Speaker 1: them maybe in the Super Contest too against Arizona. I
Speaker 1: believe that they might have been giving three and that
Speaker 1: was when I still was like, you know, Arizona just
Speaker 1: gives games away. And again they may have covered head
Speaker 1: Matt Brian kicked you know, the extra point at the
Speaker 1: end of the game. But I don't know, man, something
Speaker 1: with them. I can't believe Quinn still has a job.
Speaker 1: I mean, we've talked about that. That's that's really ridiculous.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree, certainly if they if they don't
Speaker 1: show up here, there's absolutely no reason to touch them
Speaker 1: for the rest of the season. For me, I am
Speaker 1: going to start with an over under, and usually with
Speaker 1: these I like to go under. I feel like those
Speaker 1: are usually this sharper side. But here I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: over and I'm gonna take the Cardinals and the Bucks
Speaker 1: over fifty two and a half. Now, this line has
Speaker 1: been trending up all week. It is the highest over
Speaker 1: or under of the week, but sometimes just got to
Speaker 1: steer into the skid a little bit. Now, the analysis
Speaker 1: here is pretty simple, right, both teams have solid two
Speaker 1: above average offenses. The Bucks have not been held to
Speaker 1: fewer than twenty three points since Week two, and they've
Speaker 1: played some tough defenses in that span, with the Titans,
Speaker 1: the Panthers, the Saints, and the Rams. They've got a
Speaker 1: ton of weapons on offense. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
Speaker 1: are studs. They're finally getting Ronald Jones involved. And you know,
Speaker 1: I host a fantasy football podcast. I've teased my very
Speaker 1: good friend Mike Tagler mercilessly about how high he has
Speaker 1: kept oj Howard in his fantasy ranks for rest of season.
Speaker 1: But assuming that Howard plays here and he is trending
Speaker 1: in that direction, I think he's going to have a
Speaker 1: big game. The Cardinals defense has been weak all year
Speaker 1: against tight ends. Patrick Peterson has not made much of
Speaker 1: a difference. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the fastest team in
Speaker 1: the NFL offensively under Cliff Kingsbury's offense. The Bucks can
Speaker 1: stop the run, but they cannot stop the pass. Murray
Speaker 1: is gonna throw, He's going to run. And I've run
Speaker 1: through this game a million different times. I just cannot
Speaker 1: see a scenario, absent in injury to one of the quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: where it's not a shootout. Plus you I mean, you
Speaker 1: can pretty much bank on the fact that Winston is
Speaker 1: going to have a massive turnover at some point, a
Speaker 1: pick six or a fumble deep in his own territory
Speaker 1: that's gonna lead to points. I don't like the spread here.
Speaker 1: I can't really trust either team these I don't like
Speaker 1: to back either one of these teams. But on the over,
Speaker 1: even though it's fifty two and a half and that's
Speaker 1: a high number, I just it's hard for me to
Speaker 1: see any way that this game is in a massive
Speaker 1: shootout with a really really high point total.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that makes sense. I mean, again, you've
Speaker 2: got two relatively suspect defenses here. I mean, Tampa Bay
Speaker 2: is maybe a little bit better than we thought that
Speaker 2: they would be. But you're the Winston thing. My god,
Speaker 2: the guy. He makes so many just tremendous arm talent
Speaker 2: throws and so many awful decisions, not just in the
Speaker 2: span of a season or in a game, but like
Speaker 2: on a drive, Like he'll make a throw that you
Speaker 2: just you're blown away by. Then the next one it's
Speaker 2: just like, what are you doing, dude? It's I don't
Speaker 2: think I've ever seen a player that, in consistent from
Speaker 2: one play to the next at the quarterback position, maybe
Speaker 2: like a Jeff George type of dude or something like that.
Speaker 2: It's just it's unbelievable. But I, like you said, I mean,
Speaker 2: I think it's hard to see either team providing a
Speaker 2: whole lot of resistance here Tampa Bay and one of
Speaker 2: the few places in November where the weather won't be
Speaker 2: too bad at least usually not. So, I mean, I
Speaker 2: get it. It makes sense. It is interesting to see
Speaker 2: the line coming down a little bit from the opening total,
Speaker 2: but I don't want to step in front of these
Speaker 2: two offenses.
Speaker 1: Oh see, that's interesting because I thought the line had
Speaker 1: actually moved up a point from where I had it
Speaker 1: at the look of the headline has had it moved
Speaker 1: down from the look aadline.
Speaker 2: It looks like I'm seeing it pinnacle. It opened fifty
Speaker 2: four early in the week.
Speaker 1: Interesting, Okay, So when I did the look aheadline, I
Speaker 1: had it at fifty one and a half, So it
Speaker 1: might have dropped significantly early on. There might have been
Speaker 1: some sharp money really pushing it down because I had
Speaker 1: it coming up as the week went on. But that
Speaker 1: I mean, if it opened at fifty four, that might
Speaker 1: be a little something where I would get a little
Speaker 1: nervous about taking them. I mean, I probably still would
Speaker 1: because I really feel like this game is gonna be
Speaker 1: Montra again. The big thing here is a couple of things.
Speaker 1: Number One, both teams are capable of massively explosive plays.
Speaker 1: I mean Mike Evans with the air yards that he's
Speaker 1: getting all season long, it's just every play is just
Speaker 1: a bomb to him. Both teams can score really quickly.
Speaker 1: It's not sort of a slow, grinded out game. You know.
Speaker 1: The Cardinals don't, you know, run the ball a crazy
Speaker 1: amount anyway, and they're not going to be able to
Speaker 1: run it on the Bucks, but they are going to
Speaker 1: be able to throw it. And again, I think the
Speaker 1: Bucks are really going to be able to move it.
Speaker 1: So in the end, it's a high total, the highest
Speaker 1: of the week. But you know, for me, I feel
Speaker 1: relatively confident that I'm not going to be sweating this
Speaker 1: one out in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 2: I think it's just one of those types of situations
Speaker 2: where you know, you see some high totals in the NFL,
Speaker 2: but you generally don't see totals up in that fifty
Speaker 2: three to fifty four range. And when you get outliers
Speaker 2: like that. Sharp money usually just plays against it, just
Speaker 2: solely on principle, So I don't think i'd worry too
Speaker 2: much about the line. Move here, and I will say this,
Speaker 2: get in on this one, you know, relatively quickly, because
Speaker 2: public money will drive this back up as we get
Speaker 2: closer to kickoff.
Speaker 1: And I'm just looking a little bit at the breakdown
Speaker 1: right now. I mean, you're you're about right. More bets
Speaker 1: are coming in on Atlanta, but more money is coming
Speaker 1: in on the same so it's not a crazy amount.
Speaker 1: The split of it. It's you know, relatively in you know,
Speaker 1: in line as a general matter, but it certainly is
Speaker 1: something where when the number of bets is out numbered
Speaker 1: by the money that's coming in, you can tell there's
Speaker 1: been some sharp action, at least initially that was pushing
Speaker 1: it down. Let's move on to your second pick. What
Speaker 1: do you got?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna take a look here. Two sixty five
Speaker 2: by rotation order the Detroit Lions or plus two and
Speaker 2: a half against the Chicago Bears. And look, early in
Speaker 2: the week it was three. It certainly would have been
Speaker 2: better to get three. But as far as I'm concerned,
Speaker 2: looking at the body of work for these two teams,
Speaker 2: and I know Detroit is a square side here this week.
Speaker 2: I know some sharp money has kind of shown a
Speaker 2: little bit of interest in taking Chicago, maybe in a
Speaker 2: by low type of situation, but I don't see how
Speaker 2: Chicago can lay points against any average to above average
Speaker 2: team right now. Matt Nagy just has no clue on offense.
Speaker 2: Trubisky's a disaster. I don't know why they don't just
Speaker 2: go with Chase Daniel decide that they're going to draft
Speaker 2: a quarterback. Detroit's looked pretty good, and you know you
Speaker 2: mentioned that on last week's show. Your previous guest had
Speaker 2: Oakland minus two, and I had them in the Super
Speaker 2: Contest as well, but we got damn lucky getting that one.
Speaker 2: Detroit had a turnover just outside the red zone, a
Speaker 2: pick in the end zone, they had that goal line
Speaker 2: stand at the end of the game. They basically gave
Speaker 2: seventeen points away to Oakland, you know, with some of
Speaker 2: the turnovers and with their field position there. So Detroit
Speaker 2: another game that they should have won, and you can
Speaker 2: hold that against them. You could say there's been games
Speaker 2: this season that they should have come away with a
Speaker 2: victory in but Division game here, Stafford's playing great, Detroit's
Speaker 2: defense has been playing pretty well. It seems like Matt
Speaker 2: Patricia's defensive influence is really starting to weigh in here
Speaker 2: this season. This isn't necessarily as much of a play
Speaker 2: on Detroit as it is a fate of Chicago, but
Speaker 2: the Bears just don't deserve to be laying points against
Speaker 2: any team playing as well as Detroit has this year.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could not agree with this more actually, And
Speaker 1: on Monday, you know, we take a look at the
Speaker 1: lines where they are at that point, guessing where they
Speaker 1: might move or not, And Dave Cochan was our guest.
Speaker 1: We both talked about this line as being I don't
Speaker 1: get it whatsoever. I completely agree there is just no
Speaker 1: way you can trust the Bears doing anything at this
Speaker 1: point offensively. I mean, I get that Matt Maggie is
Speaker 1: trying to rely on David Montgomery more right to run
Speaker 1: the ball because frankly, you've got to take the ball
Speaker 1: away from Mitchell Drubisky because he cannot do anything. He's
Speaker 1: completely regressed offensively. And again, the only hesitation is the
Speaker 1: exact point that you made, which is the Lions kind
Speaker 1: of have this knack of giving away these games that
Speaker 1: it seems like they should win. Right against the Raiders,
Speaker 1: they did it early on in the first game, I believe,
Speaker 1: the season against the Cardinals where they wound up tying
Speaker 1: even though they were way ahead. So they do have
Speaker 1: the knack for doing that. But I completely agree with you.
Speaker 1: It is less about the Lions and much more about
Speaker 1: the Bears, and you got to fade them, particularly on offense.
Speaker 1: So I really really like this second pick actually, and
Speaker 1: it actually feeds into my second pick, which is on
Speaker 1: the same game, and it's the under on forty two
Speaker 1: and a half on the over under. So I mean,
Speaker 1: I've been taking the Bears under pretty much the entire year,
Speaker 1: and it's been a pretty solid place to live for
Speaker 1: really much of the reason that you describe. They've played
Speaker 1: eight games, they've been below thirty seven points in five
Speaker 1: of them, and they've been above forty six points just once.
Speaker 1: Their defense isn't quite as vauntid as it once was,
Speaker 1: but it's still an above average unit overall. Really, again,
Speaker 1: it's their offense. Mitchell Trubisky is terrible. There are no
Speaker 1: signs of life from the passing offense. He was almost
Speaker 1: benched at halftime last week now. He did come out
Speaker 1: and did have a much better second half, but I
Speaker 1: believe they had nine yards at the half or something
Speaker 1: like that. They went three and out in their first
Speaker 1: five drives, so they're really just not doing it whatsoever.
Speaker 1: And again, the ground game is fine, but it's not
Speaker 1: quite as you know, explosive as you really are gonna
Speaker 1: need it to be if you're gonna have to have
Speaker 1: a quarterback like Mitchell Trubisky. Meanwhile, on the other side
Speaker 1: of the ball, Detroit can certainly move the ball fine,
Speaker 1: but it's not a matchup that sets up particularly well
Speaker 1: for the type of offensive, you know, game plan that
Speaker 1: they have. The Bears have been vulnerable on the ground
Speaker 1: since the Keeam Hicks went out. But the Lions just
Speaker 1: really have no running game. They haven't really all season.
Speaker 1: They certainly haven't since carry On Johnson went out, Ty Johnson, JD. McKissick.
Speaker 1: They're just not gonna get the carries or have that
Speaker 1: same success. The Lions their strength and their passing offense,
Speaker 1: their receivers, Kenny Galladay is great, Marvin Jones is still
Speaker 1: doing well. Danny A. Mondola pops up these good games
Speaker 1: about half the time. But the Bears are pretty good
Speaker 1: against the posing wide receivers. They've allowed just three touchdowns
Speaker 1: to them all year. They allow less than eleven yards
Speaker 1: per reception to wide receivers. Both of those are third
Speaker 1: best in the league. So this has the feel to
Speaker 1: me of a slower game where the Lions, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of rely on their tight ends like Hawkinson and James,
Speaker 1: and they kind of methodically move the ball up and
Speaker 1: down the field. So again, don't forget we're in November.
Speaker 1: It's Chicago, it's going to be cold. That kind of
Speaker 1: sets up well for the under. So I agree, I
Speaker 1: like Detroit, but I also like the under at forty
Speaker 1: two and a half.
Speaker 2: Well, and you look at the Bears here this season.
Speaker 2: I mean the game in which they scored more than
Speaker 2: thirty points, they were plus four and turnover they got
Speaker 2: five takeaways against Washington won that game thirty one to fifteen.
Speaker 2: Their other season high twenty five points against the Saints.
Speaker 2: But I mean, this is a Bears team. They've exceeded
Speaker 2: three hundred yards once on the season. We thought they'd
Speaker 2: be able to run the football. They have two games
Speaker 2: that have amounted for a good portion of their running yards,
Speaker 2: one fifty three against Denver in Week two, one sixty
Speaker 2: two against the Chargers in Week eight. They're not even
Speaker 2: running the football, and we all know that Mitch Trubisky
Speaker 2: is not a guy that you want to rely on.
Speaker 2: The one really bad thing about this Detroit defense their
Speaker 2: thirtieth and third down conversion rate against at forty eight
Speaker 2: point one percent. But the Bears are twenty eighth and
Speaker 2: third down conversion rate at thirty one point four. So
Speaker 2: this looks like a game, you know, with some field position,
Speaker 2: with some decisions to punt the football. Both these coaches
Speaker 2: have kind of made some real conservative decisions on fourth
Speaker 2: down and stuff like that throughout the year, So I
Speaker 2: got one. Definitely makes some sense. And you know, I
Speaker 2: don't think a low scoring game bothers Detroit all that
Speaker 2: much either, just because Stafford's been so efficient taking care
Speaker 2: of the ball. So who knows, Maybe you and I
Speaker 2: both have winners in this one.
Speaker 1: Oh, I think we do. Honestly. I think Patricia really
Speaker 1: at heart does not want to be this offense that
Speaker 1: throws the ball way downfield and goes up and down
Speaker 1: stuff like that. He wants to rely on his defense,
Speaker 1: He wants to sort of control the ball you. You know,
Speaker 1: he showed that last year. He hasn't really been able
Speaker 1: to do it this yere, because that's not the Lion's strength.
Speaker 1: But the Bears, to me, they just strike me as
Speaker 1: a team that's, you know, on the verge of basically
Speaker 1: mentally checking out at this point, because it's just got
Speaker 1: to be So. I'm a Jets fan, right, so I
Speaker 1: recognize exactly how it looks when a team is just
Speaker 1: kind of, you know, throwing their hands up in the
Speaker 1: air and saying, I don't really know how much more
Speaker 1: effort we can do. That kind of seems like where
Speaker 1: the Bears are heading because Trubisky just gives them almost
Speaker 1: no chance to win at this point. So I see
Speaker 1: them kind of relying on their defense, like I said,
Speaker 1: But again, there's no way they should be laying points
Speaker 1: at this point to anyone, pretty much. I mean, obviously,
Speaker 1: you know, you got the Dolphins fine, but not a
Speaker 1: team like Detroit, which is a quality football team, you know,
Speaker 1: despite the fact that their record overall isn't that great.
Speaker 1: Let's move to your third pick here real quickly.
Speaker 2: I will say this, since you said you liked the
Speaker 2: under in the Detroit Chicago game, I completely agree, we've
Speaker 2: got a perfect Wong teaser where you can get through
Speaker 2: three and seven this week, take Buffalo on a six
Speaker 2: point teaser up to eight and a half with a
Speaker 2: low total there of forty Detroit and Chicago take the
Speaker 2: Lions up to eight and a half with a low
Speaker 2: total of forty one and a half. Ideal Wong teaser
Speaker 2: named after Stanford Wong who talked about this in a
Speaker 2: great book that he wrote. But getting through three, getting
Speaker 2: through seven, right through that corridor, very very important. So
Speaker 2: my favorite NFL play of the week here is actually
Speaker 2: Buffalo and Detroit on a teaser. But as far as
Speaker 2: a regular side play goes Minnesota plus three in the
Speaker 2: Sunday nighter. I mean, you've got a Dallas team here
Speaker 2: that okay, fine, they're five and three. They've beaten the
Speaker 2: Giants twice, Washington and Miami, who are both awful, and
Speaker 2: then a good win over the Eagles before Philadelphia kind
Speaker 2: of ironed out some kinks, sort of worked some things
Speaker 2: out here. If Minnesota had Adam Feelin, I would absolutely
Speaker 2: love the Vikings in this spot. Give me a little
Speaker 2: bit of pause not to have him. But Minnesota is
Speaker 2: such a good team. Last week I give Kansas City
Speaker 2: a lot of credit for stepping up defensively, holding Minnesota
Speaker 2: to three hundred and eight yards, but prior to that,
Speaker 2: Minnesota just racking up yards on everybody. Again, maybe they
Speaker 2: played a little bit of a softer schedule in there,
Speaker 2: but I think it gave you know, first year offensive
Speaker 2: Cordator and Kevin Stefanski a little bit more time to
Speaker 2: get some confidence going with this offense, to get some
Speaker 2: confidence going for Kirk Cousins as well. Mike Zimmer is
Speaker 2: a huge mismatch, maybe the biggest mismatch of the week
Speaker 2: against Jason Garrett. Minnesota has been excellent when they've played
Speaker 2: outside the NFC North. Dallas really only plays well against
Speaker 2: the NFC East. I think Minnesota is absolutely the right
Speaker 2: side on Sunday night, not even just plus the three.
Speaker 2: But they should win this game outright.
Speaker 1: No, I agree, I think they are going to win
Speaker 1: the game out right. There are a bunch of things
Speaker 1: here that I'm thinking about. First of all, the Cowboys
Speaker 1: are obviously on a short week. The thing is, they
Speaker 1: really did not look that good against the Giants. They
Speaker 1: just you know, they started pouring it on little bit late.
Speaker 1: But the Giants are a vastly inferior team. You've got
Speaker 1: a Marii Cooper who is banged up right now. Actually,
Speaker 1: Michael Gallup, although we practiced in full, was added to
Speaker 1: the injury port right now, so they are both dealing
Speaker 1: with some sort of injury. At least I think both
Speaker 1: will play, but they're a little bit banged up. Me
Speaker 1: and all the Vikings. I mean, that was a tough
Speaker 1: loss last week and they kind of need to win
Speaker 1: this game. You know, They've got to stay in the
Speaker 1: hunt here with the Packers doing well. So it's not
Speaker 1: quote unquote I must win game or anything like that,
Speaker 1: but they really need to do whatever they can to
Speaker 1: try to pull it out. In terms of Kirk Cousins, look,
Speaker 1: he has been playing really well this year. I've been
Speaker 1: really impressed by him. But he plays really really well indoors.
Speaker 1: Now most of those are home games, of course, but
Speaker 1: right now, I mean the Cowboys technically have the open
Speaker 1: roof and everything like that, but this is, for all
Speaker 1: intents and purposes, a game that's going to be indoors
Speaker 1: on the turf. Of course, you do have no Adam dealing.
Speaker 1: I agree that hurts them a little bit, but I
Speaker 1: think it was it hurt them more last week against
Speaker 1: Kansas City because they weren't prepared for it. You know,
Speaker 1: their offense looked fine and they got Digs heavily involved.
Speaker 1: Diggs was barely involved last week, and the Chiefs they
Speaker 1: get Digs heavily involved when they have the week to
Speaker 1: game plan around the fact that Feelan is not going
Speaker 1: to be there, which they have right now. I think
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook is going to have a huge game like
Speaker 1: he always does, so I agree with you at this point.
Speaker 1: You know, the Cowboys coming off that win, but coming
Speaker 1: off a short week, you've got kind of a desperate
Speaker 1: Vikings team and indoors, I agree with you. I like
Speaker 1: them getting the three points here.
Speaker 2: And I think Dallas not even just this week, but
Speaker 2: Dallas is probably a fad team going forward. Tough road
Speaker 2: game at Detroit next week, at New England. The following week,
Speaker 2: short week on Thanksgiving, they play against Buffalo, where you
Speaker 2: know they will be a home favorite in that game,
Speaker 2: but Buffalo, as we know, very very good defensively. I
Speaker 2: think the next few weeks could be very challenging for
Speaker 2: Dallas as the schedule really really ramps up for them.
Speaker 1: Well, I think betting against Jason Garrett has generally been
Speaker 1: a profitable move, so I can't argue with any of that.
Speaker 1: For my third pick, I'm going to vomit all over myself,
Speaker 1: but I am going to take the Bengals getting ten
Speaker 1: from the Ravens.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I like this a little bit more when it looked
Speaker 1: like aj Green would play. It sounds like he's not
Speaker 1: only not going to play this week, but may not
Speaker 1: play for the remainder of the season. But as we
Speaker 1: talked about, this is a pretty ugly card this week
Speaker 1: given all the byes, So I'm still going to go
Speaker 1: with them getting the ten. This is far less about
Speaker 1: which team is good against this and which team is
Speaker 1: bad against this, and far more about the spots that
Speaker 1: both these teams find themselves in. The Ravens come off
Speaker 1: this absolutely enormous win against the Patriots in prime time.
Speaker 1: This has to it just has to be a little
Speaker 1: bit of a letdown spot for them. And you can
Speaker 1: have a letdown spot against the Bengals and still win
Speaker 1: pretty easily. But the Bengals are also coming off the bye,
Speaker 1: during which they have changed quarterbacks from Andy Dalton to
Speaker 1: Ryan Finley. I think the team is probably going to
Speaker 1: come out with a little bit of energy. I think
Speaker 1: you're probably going to see some creative offensive plays here.
Speaker 1: I mean, the team's ohn eight, they've got nothing to lose.
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see some you know, a
Speaker 1: little bit more razzle dazzle than you've seen so far
Speaker 1: as they try to eke out a win against the
Speaker 1: division rival. And you know, look, the Bengals are terrible,
Speaker 1: but remember that they covered that big spread earlier in
Speaker 1: the season against the Ravens, and with a they're getting
Speaker 1: a little bit healthier. They got Drake Kirkpatrick and William
Speaker 1: Jackson are coming back, or at least they're probably both
Speaker 1: at one hundred percent dark as Denard Carlos and John Miller,
Speaker 1: they look likely to play. Cordy Glenn may finally suit
Speaker 1: up after his concussion. That'd be a big boost to
Speaker 1: the offensive line. So the Ravens are almost certainly gonna
Speaker 1: win this game. But when you're talking about double digits,
Speaker 1: I mentioned it earlier when you talked about the Falcons,
Speaker 1: you get double digits on any NFL team, It just
Speaker 1: makes you kind of want to really dig into that.
Speaker 1: And here there are just a lot of ways for
Speaker 1: the Bengals to eat out a back door cover like
Speaker 1: they did the first game against the Ravens. So again,
Speaker 1: after that emotional win, with the Bengals changing quarterbacks, off
Speaker 1: a bye, getting healthier, I'm gonna take them getting double
Speaker 1: digits in points well and again.
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at that first game and look,
Speaker 2: you said it was a backdoor cover since they had
Speaker 2: got badly out gained in that one. But that line
Speaker 2: was Baltimore minus ten and a half in home. This
Speaker 2: line is Baltimore minus ten and a half on the road.
Speaker 2: I mean, in the span of four weeks with a
Speaker 2: Cincinnati team coming off of a bye, can you really
Speaker 2: say these two teams six points different? I don't think so.
Speaker 2: I know, Baltimore got that nice win over New England
Speaker 2: last week that probably propped this line up a little bit.
Speaker 2: Maybe they're saying that there's a downgrade from Andy Dalton
Speaker 2: to Ryan Finley, but I don't think that's the case.
Speaker 2: I mean, if you flip home field here, is there
Speaker 2: any way in hell you'd lay sixteen and a half
Speaker 2: with Baltimore. I wouldn't, not in the spot that they're in,
Speaker 2: not against the team coming off of a bye where
Speaker 2: you don't have any film on Ryan Finley either, So
Speaker 2: I think Cincinnati does make a lot of sense here
Speaker 2: this week. Maybe it's just an anti Baltimore play coming
Speaker 2: off the spot, but I've gotta think Ryan Finley looks better.
Speaker 2: And one other point here, like I talked about with
Speaker 2: New Orleans over their bye week, everything went great. You know,
Speaker 2: Green Bay lost, Minnesota loss, San Francisco, you know, had
Speaker 2: all kinds of trouble with Arizona. Everything was great, everything
Speaker 2: was peachy for New Orleans. What happened on Cincinnati's buy
Speaker 2: one of the teams without a win got a win.
Speaker 2: So now you're oh to eight and you're sitting there
Speaker 2: thinking we can't be the Owen sixteen team. Now, of
Speaker 2: course they're probably not going to be Baltimore, but still,
Speaker 2: I mean it probably gives them a little bit more focus,
Speaker 2: a little bit more incentive to go out there and
Speaker 2: you know, not embarrass themselves this week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree with that. That's a really good point.
Speaker 1: The fact that the Dolphins won. They are the only
Speaker 1: winless team at this point. I mean, it is one
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I do think they're gonna get
Speaker 1: creative here, right. I mean, you know, in the end,
Speaker 1: what do they have to lose. It's gonna be one
Speaker 1: of these games where I feel like you're gonna see
Speaker 1: them go for it on fourth and one from their
Speaker 1: own forty because you know, at this point, just do something.
Speaker 1: And I agree, Look, you know, Andy Dalton is not
Speaker 1: the worst quarterback in the NFL. Okay, but certainly it's
Speaker 1: not as if you're like, well, I don't know, we're
Speaker 1: going from Andy Dalton to Ryan Finley. Finley is fine.
Speaker 1: He can play, he was fine in college. He can
Speaker 1: get He's not probably not gonna push them all like
Speaker 1: crazy or anything in his first game. But they're fine.
Speaker 1: And even without Green, they have Tyler Boyd, they have
Speaker 1: you know, Audentate, They've got enough receivers. Hopefully the coaching
Speaker 1: staff figures out a way to better utilize Joe Mixon,
Speaker 1: which is something basically that people have been screaming about
Speaker 1: for years, regardless of the coaching staff. So yeah, I
Speaker 1: with you here. You know they're going to be motivated.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to come out with a little
Speaker 1: bit of energy up at the game. And again, it's
Speaker 1: so hard. We've seen this time and time again. You
Speaker 1: had such an emotional win for the Ravens. To beat
Speaker 1: the Patriots on Sunday Night. It's just got to be
Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown. And again, that doesn't
Speaker 1: mean that they're gonna just complete a tack. I don't
Speaker 1: think the Bengals are going to win or anything like that,
Speaker 1: but you know, that's sort of an opening for a
Speaker 1: team like the Bengals to maybe get off to a
Speaker 1: fast start.
Speaker 2: And one other thing is Zach Taylor, right, I mean,
Speaker 2: this guy is supposedly a quarterback guru. You know, he
Speaker 2: worked obviously made Jared Goffinho a pretty good NFL quarterback
Speaker 2: at least at home. Zach Taylor knew that this was
Speaker 2: the last year of Andy Dalton, and he prioritized Ryan
Speaker 2: Finley in the NFL draft. You know, they could have
Speaker 2: taken a quarterback earlier because they knew that this would
Speaker 2: be the last year with Dalton, because Dalton wasn't going
Speaker 2: to do anything to get himself a huge contract from Cincinnati,
Speaker 2: especially with the new coach that you know didn't even
Speaker 2: draft him, and he isolated Ryan Finley. As much as
Speaker 2: we don't know about Ryan Finley, if a guy like
Speaker 2: Zach Taylor, who's been around quarterbacks, was in that Sean
Speaker 2: McVay system, so on and so forth. If he likes
Speaker 2: Ryan Finley, why shouldn't I like Ryan Finley.
Speaker 1: I think that's a great point. That's a really really
Speaker 1: good point. And again, you know, really what we're talking
Speaker 1: about is it just it can't be a significant doubgrade
Speaker 1: no matter what it is, it just can't be at
Speaker 1: this point. And if Andy Dalton was in this game
Speaker 1: and they were getting ten, I would feel fine about
Speaker 1: it completely. So in the end, I think, you know,
Speaker 1: that's a really good point. And you know, once you're
Speaker 1: getting into the double digits, we both like the dogs
Speaker 1: this week. So let's recap here. You like the Falcons
Speaker 1: getting thirteen from the Saints, the Lions plus two and
Speaker 1: a half over the Bears, and the Vikings getting three
Speaker 1: from the Cowboys. Of course, I will mention you did
Speaker 1: mention your favorite bet of the weekend is the two
Speaker 1: team teaser Buffalo getting eight and a half and the
Speaker 1: Lions getting eight and a half. Is that right?
Speaker 2: Yes, sir?
Speaker 1: All right, good, that's a good one. Actually for me,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Cardinals and the Bucks going over
Speaker 1: fifty two and a half, the Lions and the Bears
Speaker 1: going under forty two and a half and the Bengals
Speaker 1: getting ten from the Ravens. Now, before we move on,
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Speaker 1: let's move to it's a trap where we list the
Speaker 1: line of the week that we are avoiding. What do
Speaker 1: you got?
Speaker 2: Well, initially, I actually kind of thought I might like
Speaker 2: one of the sides in this game, but as I
Speaker 2: looked into it a lot more, I just don't. And
Speaker 2: that's the Rams and the Steelers. You got a late
Speaker 2: kickoff here at Hinsfield, which is a little bit surprising,
Speaker 2: and somebody that does favor the Rams a little bit
Speaker 2: here not having to play with that ten am kickoff.
Speaker 2: But oh man, Jared Goff on the road, at least
Speaker 2: for his sake. The weather doesn't look too bad in
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh on Sunday. That could have been a real big worry.
Speaker 2: But I don't know if the Rams have really turned
Speaker 2: a corner. There's still very one dimensional on offense. They
Speaker 2: cannot run the football for one reason or another. I
Speaker 2: have very good route runners there that really do help
Speaker 2: golf more often than not. But Pittsburgh's quick on defense,
Speaker 2: They've rebuilt on the fly. They've gotten very young on
Speaker 2: the defensive side of the ball. They've got some pass
Speaker 2: rushers with Watt and Bush, and then the Pittsburgh offense,
Speaker 2: I don't know what I'm gonna get week in and
Speaker 2: week out, And really I don't know what I'm gonna
Speaker 2: get from drive to drive with Mason Rudolph doesn't have
Speaker 2: a lot of help at the skill positions. With Smith
Speaker 2: Schuster getting double covered and you know, so much attention
Speaker 2: paid to him. I cannot touch this game one way
Speaker 2: or another. You can't tease it either way either, because
Speaker 2: I think there's a chance that Pittsburgh could get comfortably
Speaker 2: beaten if you do tease them up to nine and
Speaker 2: a half or something like that. Plus you're not getting
Speaker 2: three or only getting seven. That's a complete stayaway game
Speaker 2: for me. I don't even like the total on it either.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I really want to like the Rams
Speaker 1: in this game. That's kind of when I look at
Speaker 1: it and I just get a good feeling. I'm like, oh,
Speaker 1: I feel okay about the Rems, but you can't at
Speaker 1: this game sets up really poorly for them because you know,
Speaker 1: they're big problem this year for them is the fact
Speaker 1: that their offensive line has been terrible and Goff without
Speaker 1: time to sit there and you know, let the receivers
Speaker 1: run their routes and survey the landscape has been terrible.
Speaker 1: He's terrible under pressure. And the one thing the Steelers
Speaker 1: do is they really get pressure on the quarterback. You know,
Speaker 1: Heinz Field is a difficult place to play. And again,
Speaker 1: one of the things I like to do when our
Speaker 1: guests come on and they talk about these bets that
Speaker 1: they're avoiding, is I like to look at the breakdown
Speaker 1: of how our experts are picking them, and this shows
Speaker 1: exactly why you're avoiding it. Fifty three forty seven favor
Speaker 1: the Rams, so basically split right down the middle. So
Speaker 1: it is a game again where the Steelers are also
Speaker 1: a really difficult team to bet on either way because
Speaker 1: they're so gimmicky, you know what I mean. They're winning games,
Speaker 1: you know, Jalen Samuel's last week had thirteen receptions. You
Speaker 1: just can't game plan around that. So for me, I
Speaker 1: completely agree with you. This is a game I don't
Speaker 1: like out of curiosity. You said you initially liked it
Speaker 1: when you first looked at it. Was that on the
Speaker 1: Rams or was that on the Steelers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I initially liked the Rams a little bit because,
Speaker 2: like I said, I do want to believe that maybe
Speaker 2: they've turned a corner, maybe they've figured some things out offensively.
Speaker 2: And also, I know everyone's trying to copycatch Sean McVay,
Speaker 2: but he's so much better than Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin's
Speaker 2: just terrible. And look, Pittsburgh would have lost last week
Speaker 2: probably if Jacoby Brissette doesn't get hurt. Not that Brian
Speaker 2: Hoyer played poorly necessarily, but I mean that completely changed
Speaker 2: the complexion of that game, even though Indianapolis scored a
Speaker 2: touchdown in that possession where Brissette got hurt, But I
Speaker 2: mean that could have gone completely differently for the Steelers.
Speaker 2: I was actually on Pittsburgh last week in the Super
Speaker 2: Contest and felt really fortunate to get that one. I
Speaker 2: just I don't think Pittsburgh's a very good team, and
Speaker 2: I don't think Tomlin's a very good coach.
Speaker 1: Now, they certainly should have lost last week even with
Speaker 1: why I mean Hoyer threw the pick six, and again
Speaker 1: even with everything, even with subbing and quarterbacks and the metal,
Speaker 1: even with no t Y Hilton in there, still if
Speaker 1: Adam Vina Terry doesn't shank that kick at the end
Speaker 1: of regulation, they do lose that game. So it's just
Speaker 1: a really tough team to get a beat on, and
Speaker 1: I don't particularly like betting against them at home, especially
Speaker 1: I believe this might be their third straight game at
Speaker 1: home at the point, so they're comfortable right now. And again,
Speaker 1: I just don't feel comfortable with the Rams at this point,
Speaker 1: given that you know, you don't really know what you're
Speaker 1: going to see from them, and again they're down Brandon
Speaker 1: Cooks as well, who's out this week, so you really
Speaker 1: don't know exactly what you're gonna get. For me, I'm
Speaker 1: avoiding the Browns laying three to the bill. So you
Speaker 1: mentioned that you are willing to tease the Bills. So
Speaker 1: I'd really like to hear your thoughts on it. And again,
Speaker 1: I believe if memory serves that you are a Browns fan,
Speaker 1: is that correct?
Speaker 2: I am. I'm not at the paper bags stage yet,
Speaker 2: but I'm getting close.
Speaker 1: All right, That's all right. I've been at the paper
Speaker 1: bag stage in my team for a while. So look,
Speaker 1: this is a line that I feel like you look
Speaker 1: at it and you know, putting aside, you know anything
Speaker 1: that we know about it. It just go to John
Speaker 1: Q public out there and they look at this line
Speaker 1: and I think they're gonna be like, what are you
Speaker 1: talking about? How are the Bills getting three? At this point?
Speaker 1: I mean, they should easily be able to win this
Speaker 1: game out right now. The Browns have been a disaster
Speaker 1: this year, and I think we talked about it when
Speaker 1: you were on in an early show. They were, you know,
Speaker 1: Mayfield got the most money on them to be the MVP.
Speaker 1: The Browns, I think got the most money on them
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. So at this point, you
Speaker 1: have to feel like the public has just been bruised
Speaker 1: and battered so badly by backing the Browns. So I
Speaker 1: feel like you look at it and you're like, well,
Speaker 1: the Bills, you know, they're having such a good season,
Speaker 1: they should be able to win. So when you see
Speaker 1: a line like that, for me, there's always a reason
Speaker 1: for it. Like last week with the Chargers against the Packers,
Speaker 1: and I think the Packers were laying three and a half,
Speaker 1: and you just looked at it from the surface, from
Speaker 1: far away, and you're like, man, you know the books
Speaker 1: are going to get a ton of money on the
Speaker 1: Packers because they're such a public team. Why aren't they
Speaker 1: making this higher? There's usually some sort of reason for it,
Speaker 1: And when you dive into it, the Bills really just
Speaker 1: are not nearly as good as their record indicates. Their
Speaker 1: strength of schedule has been preposterously easy. They are weak
Speaker 1: against the run, which is the one thing the Browns
Speaker 1: can do, and they're gett Kareem huntbacks, so they add
Speaker 1: a little bit more of a dimension there. So when
Speaker 1: I look at everything, I mean, I guess I kind
Speaker 1: of like the Browns maybe, but I just cannot back
Speaker 1: them in the end because they've been I've backed them
Speaker 1: several times this year, right, I backed them against the Patriots,
Speaker 1: and again I didn't think that was terrible performance. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think they got pretty unlucky in that game to
Speaker 1: not cover. But I've backed them several times. I hit
Speaker 1: them against Denver last week. It's just basically at a
Speaker 1: point where I feel like I can't feel comfortable backing
Speaker 1: them is particularly his favorites, but really in any game.
Speaker 1: So for me, the Browns length three to the Bills
Speaker 1: is a game I'm avoiding.
Speaker 2: The funny thing is that over the last few years,
Speaker 2: everyone's kind of gotten their own taste of the Cleveland
Speaker 2: Misery Index about sports. And I mean I've I've lived
Speaker 2: it far more times than I'd like to recount. But
Speaker 2: you know, look, I mean I've fallen on the public
Speaker 2: side here of I've seen nothing from the Browns that
Speaker 2: would indicate to me that they can figure this thing out.
Speaker 2: I get it. They've played a very very hard schedule.
Speaker 2: The schedule got easier last week with Denver, got much
Speaker 2: easier with Brandon Allen, and they still couldn't take advantage
Speaker 2: of it. Buffalo's played a week schedule. Maybe they're a
Speaker 2: little bit of a fraudulent six and two team. Maybe
Speaker 2: Cleveland should be better than two and six, But look,
Speaker 2: Baker and I mentioned this on my show which I
Speaker 2: recorded the Friday edition here just before we started recording.
Speaker 2: Baker can't throw guys open. In college football, his guys
Speaker 2: had you know, two three yards on a defender. All
Speaker 2: you have to do is put the ball there. In
Speaker 2: the NFL, you've got to throw your guy open occasionally,
Speaker 2: and he hasn't made those throws in those tight windows.
Speaker 2: He's put balls behind guys, They've been tipped and picked.
Speaker 2: He's put balls, you know, over guys heads. He's not
Speaker 2: an accurate passer, and maybe he's just not a very
Speaker 2: good quarterback. On the other hand, it could be a
Speaker 2: scheme thing with Freddy Kitchens. But I don't see how
Speaker 2: the Browns get this thing figured out. Baker already said
Speaker 2: this week, well, we got to force the ball to obj. Okay,
Speaker 2: that's not a great idea. You're not putting Nick Chubb
Speaker 2: out there in third down situations. The opposition knows it's
Speaker 2: going to be a pass. They're not worried about Dontrell
Speaker 2: Hilliard running on him. Does Kareem Hunt change that? Maybe?
Speaker 2: But you know what else, Kareem Hunt does take snaps
Speaker 2: away from Nick Chubbho's been their best offensive player. So
Speaker 2: I don't love that you're trying to keep Beckham happy,
Speaker 2: You're trying to keep Landry happy. They don't know how
Speaker 2: to spread the ball around to all of these different
Speaker 2: weapons here, because there's only one football and the Bills
Speaker 2: are a very good defensive team. Say what you will
Speaker 2: about the schedule, they're still very very stout on that
Speaker 2: side of the ball. If Cleveland takes advantage of the
Speaker 2: weaker schedule here quote unquote and beats the Bills, so
Speaker 2: be it. They're gonna have to prove it to me.
Speaker 2: I may end up taking Buffalo there plus three in
Speaker 2: the super contest as opposed to two and a half,
Speaker 2: so I may end up on him there. I still
Speaker 2: think the teaser with one leg being Buffalo is a
Speaker 2: great idea. But I have no confidence in the Browns.
Speaker 2: And it's not my jaded Cleveland fandom. It's just watching
Speaker 2: this team week in and week out. I don't think
Speaker 2: Baker knows how to fix it. I know Kitchens doesn't
Speaker 2: know how to fix it. Monkan has really no say
Speaker 2: as the offensive coordinator. They're a mess, and you're not
Speaker 2: gonna fix a mess against a good defensive team.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's crazy to me. By the way,
Speaker 1: that Mungan is not involved basically whatsoever. I mean, what
Speaker 1: is the point of him being there? You know, essentially
Speaker 1: he certainly did good things when he was with the
Speaker 1: Bucks in terms of offensively, So really it's mind by
Speaker 1: and I heard that today, And again I don't remember
Speaker 1: if it was you. It might have been because obviously
Speaker 1: you're a Browns fan. But I remember in a preseason
Speaker 1: episode we talked about how things could just go south
Speaker 1: for the Browns because especially regardless of their schedule. But again,
Speaker 1: the personalities in that locker room, it's just it's too combustible.
Speaker 1: It's hard to see them really getting up for the game,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, which again is why the
Speaker 1: line it strikes me as strange. You know, I get
Speaker 1: that they're home, and I you know, I get where
Speaker 1: it might have been at the look ahead line, but
Speaker 1: at this point, everything about them screams that they're just
Speaker 1: checked out. So it's really hard for me to do.
Speaker 1: But again, when there's a line like this that makes
Speaker 1: me kind of say, what am I missing? One am
Speaker 1: I missing? What am I missing? It's usually a line
Speaker 1: that makes me want to stay away. So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: I'm gonna run from this one, and so I'll be
Speaker 1: avoiding the Browns laying three did the Bills, and you
Speaker 1: were going to be avoiding the Rams laying three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Steelers. Before we get into our
Speaker 1: final segment, remember we've got a signed Odell Beckham junior
Speaker 1: helmet giveaway contest going on. Considering we were just talking
Speaker 1: about the Browns, and get more details over bettingpros dot
Speaker 1: com slash contest. But to be entered, just leave a
Speaker 1: review for the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and
Speaker 1: send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com. That helmet comes from our friends over at
Speaker 1: Pristine Auction, where they have a ton of incredible stuff
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Speaker 1: check them out at pri I S t I n
Speaker 1: E auction dot com and if you sign up using
Speaker 1: our registration code Betting Pros, you get a free five
Speaker 1: dollars voucher. All right, it's time for top prop. 're
Speaker 1: Adam and I list our top player prop for the weekend.
Speaker 1: Go ahead and start us off.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think you're gonna like this one too much.
Speaker 2: I mean, I do think the Bengals are a pretty
Speaker 2: decent look this week, But I'm gonna go with Lamar
Speaker 2: Jackson rushing yards over. I mean, I'm not exactly sure
Speaker 2: what this prop's gonna be. We are recording on Thursday,
Speaker 2: so you know, a lot of player props not out yet.
Speaker 2: But Sincanty gave up one hundred and fifty two rushing
Speaker 2: yards to Lamar Jackson in the first meeting. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's just the kind of thing that Lamar Jackson can do.
Speaker 2: I think since Sandy had a pretty good game plan,
Speaker 2: But when you get a quarterback that can improve the
Speaker 2: way that he can, it's very, very tough to stay
Speaker 2: in converage. It's very tough to you know, try and
Speaker 2: hold contain. Since he I has given up one hundred
Speaker 2: and forty one more rushing yards to quarterbacks than the
Speaker 2: other than any other team in the NFL, largely because
Speaker 2: of that first meeting with Lamar Jackson, I'm not sure
Speaker 2: I see this week's one going any differently.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I can't really disagree with you, especially
Speaker 1: since I feel like, you know, Jackson kind of wanted
Speaker 1: to talk earlier in the season about I don't really
Speaker 1: want to run necessarily, you know, I like passing and
Speaker 1: stuff like that. Now we're just kind of leaning into it,
Speaker 1: which is good. You know, in the end. The big
Speaker 1: thing about the Bengals, you know, as much as I
Speaker 1: do think that they're going to be able to cover
Speaker 1: the ten, is they can't tackle. And they've had some
Speaker 1: of these games this year where they just come out
Speaker 1: and I think it was against the forty nine Ers earlier,
Speaker 1: and you know, against the Seahawks it's okay, but you know,
Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers certainly in other games where
Speaker 1: they just can't tackle, and when you get Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: sort of in open field they're scrambling or anything like that.
Speaker 1: I think he is somebody who's probably going to have
Speaker 1: a pretty big rushing total this week. So you know,
Speaker 1: again it's not something that necessarily goes against the spread
Speaker 1: because again that's that's just you know, it's not gonna
Speaker 1: be an explosive player or anything. I mean, it could,
Speaker 1: of course, but for the most part with rushing, it's
Speaker 1: just going to kind of keep the clock moving and
Speaker 1: everything like that, hopefully take longer drives to keep the
Speaker 1: game closer than an otherwise would be. But in the end,
Speaker 1: I don't dislike, you know, going over on Jackson QB.
Speaker 1: Rushing props generally make me a little nervous. Legitimately, they
Speaker 1: make me a little nervous just because you can scramble,
Speaker 1: so when you're going over, especially with a guy like Jackson,
Speaker 1: I really don't have a problem with that.
Speaker 2: It's just one of those things too, like you know,
Speaker 2: with both of us being on since Ay started interrupt. No,
Speaker 2: it's one of those things where when you look at
Speaker 2: the games where Jackson has had to run and has
Speaker 2: had success running, it's been a closer game. So if
Speaker 2: you think it's going to be a closer game here
Speaker 2: and he's going to need his legs, he uses them.
Speaker 2: You know, in the games where he hasn't run a
Speaker 2: whole lot. The win over Miami not a big surprise.
Speaker 2: Eight carries, in the loss to Kansas City where they
Speaker 2: were trailing by you know, double digits a decent part
Speaker 2: of that game, and the game against Cleveland nine carries
Speaker 2: where they gave up forty points and the Browns just
Speaker 2: had not a boy experience other than that, in closer games,
Speaker 2: Jackson's had to run. So if you like the Bengals here,
Speaker 2: there's probably some correlation with Jackson in future Ravens games.
Speaker 2: If they're going to need his legs, he will be
Speaker 2: there with them. So if you do, like the other
Speaker 2: side of a game against Baltimore, it's almost like a
Speaker 2: like a pseudo hedge or a quasi middle to take
Speaker 2: Jackson over the rushing yards because he'll think that they
Speaker 2: need him.
Speaker 1: I love it. This is totally synergy right now. Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I'm inclined to agree with you on
Speaker 1: that one. I do think that there'll be a big
Speaker 1: running game here. Now, I also think there's going to
Speaker 1: be a big running game from Aaron Jones. So I'm
Speaker 1: going to take him over one hundred rushing yards and
Speaker 1: that's a plus two hundred, So you know you're getting
Speaker 1: some odds here. This isn't something where necessarily the odds
Speaker 1: are with it to happen. And he's only done it
Speaker 1: twice this year, and he's coming off a game where
Speaker 1: he just gained thirty yards rushing, but they ran just
Speaker 1: fifty plays against the Chargers. So I think this is
Speaker 1: a little bit of a get right game here against
Speaker 1: the Panthers for the Packers at home. The Panthers defense
Speaker 1: remains strong against the pass, but they are definitely vulnerable
Speaker 1: against the run. They have shown that the last two
Speaker 1: weeks against the forty nine Ers and the Titans, where
Speaker 1: Tevin Coleman and Derek Henry kind of ran all over them.
Speaker 1: Jamal Williams is still there and he's going to get
Speaker 1: his seven to ten touches per game or whatever. But
Speaker 1: I think this is the type of game where Jones
Speaker 1: can see closer to these sixteen to twenty carries as
Speaker 1: the Packers look to control the game. I do think
Speaker 1: that the Packers are going to win this game as
Speaker 1: they come home, and they were embarrassed last week in
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, so I do think that it's a game
Speaker 1: where they're going to be ahead and they're going to
Speaker 1: rely a little bit more on the run, particularly because
Speaker 1: that's the panther's efficiency. So it's a big number, and
Speaker 1: again it's plus two hundred. It's the same thing with
Speaker 1: Robbie Anderson that I did last week. When you're getting
Speaker 1: you know, good odds, it's something it's not that you
Speaker 1: necessarily expect it definitely to happen, but given the odds,
Speaker 1: I think of him going over. I'm there, So you know,
Speaker 1: if you're getting two to one on your money for
Speaker 1: this one, given the fact that I do expect the
Speaker 1: Packers to be playing from ahead, for them to rely
Speaker 1: a little bit more on their round games since I
Speaker 1: got away from it last week. I'll take plus two
Speaker 1: hundred for Jones to go over one hundred rushing yards.
Speaker 2: I like d You know, when you talk about obviously
Speaker 2: we've got college basketball going on now, you start looking
Speaker 2: at spreads that are in the six, six and a half, seven,
Speaker 2: seven and a half point range because that's kind of
Speaker 2: the falling area. So you think about, you know, looking
Speaker 2: into bet overs because you expect the game to be
Speaker 2: extended at the end with a lot of falls, and
Speaker 2: of course you want to try and get every half
Speaker 2: point possible because you, again, it is in that falling
Speaker 2: range this game. I think it makes sense to go
Speaker 2: with a running back over type of prop and also
Speaker 2: to take a little bit of odds with it, because
Speaker 2: you're in that one to two score range of between
Speaker 2: a field goal and a touchdown to where Green Bay
Speaker 2: may be salting this game away in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 2: It's kind of what the line would suggest to you
Speaker 2: a little bit, which would mean Aaron Jones, which would
Speaker 2: mean giving him touches, trying to assert the line of
Speaker 2: scrimmage a little bit more so. I think this is
Speaker 2: the right type of spread range to take a little
Speaker 2: bit of a shot like that, getting two to one
Speaker 2: on a rushing yards prop, expecting the game plays out
Speaker 2: as anticipated and that Jones does wind up as you mentioned,
Speaker 2: getting a good handful of toats there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the spread is in that dead number right now
Speaker 1: at five, which again I like you know, it's been
Speaker 1: bouncing back and forth to five and five and a
Speaker 1: half from what I've seen all week. I do expect
Speaker 1: that to sort of be how it's going to be.
Speaker 1: I could, you know, see the Packers playing a lot
Speaker 1: from ahead and then just kind of leaning on Jones
Speaker 1: at the end again, because that's really where you attack
Speaker 1: the Panthers defense to the extent you are able to
Speaker 1: control the game. It's certainly their rushing defense rather than
Speaker 1: their passing defense. All right, that's going to do it
Speaker 1: for today's show. Thanks again for joining me and and
Speaker 1: remind everyone where they can find more of you and
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, man, I appreciate the opportunity to join you. You
Speaker 2: can find me over at bangabook dot com, covering all
Speaker 2: variety of different sports Every Monday through Friday on Bang
Speaker 2: the Book Radio, where we talk about the NFL, college football, NBA,
Speaker 2: NHL golf. We work a lot of different stuff in
Speaker 2: plenty of college hoops as well, so a lot of
Speaker 2: good things going on, very busy time of year. You
Speaker 2: guys are doing great work over here. We're doing great
Speaker 2: work over there. A lot of good resources out there
Speaker 2: for betters here in this current you know, sports betting landscape,
Speaker 2: and also some pretty good election results here this past
Speaker 2: week to help push sports betting a little bit further.
Speaker 2: So that'll definite it'll be something you want to pay
Speaker 2: attention to as we head into twenty twenty with more
Speaker 2: states coming on board. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, it's a trend that certainly you and I are
Speaker 1: both glad to see, and I think it's just going
Speaker 1: to continue that way. Thanks again for coming on and
Speaker 1: hopefully we can do it one more time before the
Speaker 1: end of the NFL season.
Speaker 2: Absolutely would love to.
Speaker 1: All Right, I want to remind everyone about bet MGM,
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Speaker 1: as the Jets and the Giants do not tie if
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Speaker 1: Beckham junior signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers
Speaker 1: this weekend, we'll be backbreaking down the early lines for
Speaker 1: week eleven on Mondays.