WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 10 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 25) 0:00:08.000 --> 0:00:11.280 Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast, 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:13.920 brought to you by bet MGM. I am your host, 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:16.200 Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:18.760 Harris eighty. It is time to break down some of 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:21.640 our favorite and our least favorite bets for the week 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:23.880 ten NFL slate and with me to talk about it 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:27.000 all is Adam Burke, a sports betting writer at bangbook 0:00:27.000 --> 0:00:29.560 dot com and host of Bang the Book Radio. You 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:32.760 can follow him on Twitter at Skating Tripods. Adam, thanks 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:33.920 for coming back on how's it going? 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:36.320 Absolutely, it's going well man. How you doing good? 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:38.760 I think you might have been our first two time guest, 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:41.360 and you were definitely our first three time guests, So 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:42.159 I mean. 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:43.920 This is third times a charm, right. 0:00:44.040 --> 0:00:46.519 You've got a big reputation here, so you can't let 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:47.839 us down. This is a big one here. It's a 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:49.600 tough week. We were just talking about it before we 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:52.000 started recording. You've got six teams on a buy. There 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:54.600 aren't that many games to choose from, so we really 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:56.240 need to figure out a way to bring it right here. 0:00:56.720 --> 0:00:59.080 You guys know the drill? Alrighty. For the Thursday episode, 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:00.440 Adam and I are going to be make some of 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:02.960 our favorite bets against the spread or on the over under. 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:04.920 We'll list a game to avoid, and then we'll give 0:01:05.040 --> 0:01:07.480 our favorite prop bet. But we are nothing if not 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.120 accountable here at the Betting Bros Unfel podcast, so let 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:13.280 us very quickly review last week. I hit on the 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.840 Jets and the Dolphins over forty one and the Eagles 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.920 Bears under forty two, but thanks to Adam Vinitari, I 0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.440 missed on the Colts laying one to the Steelers. I 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.080 also whiffed on what I admitted was a very big 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:26.560 reach on a prop bet after I'd hit like five straight, 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:29.160 which was Robbie Anderson over one hundred and twenty five 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:33.120 receiving yards at plus four to twenty five against the Dolphins. Overall, 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:34.840 I don't feel all that bad about last week. And 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:36.920 while I did bet the Colts because I placed my 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:40.160 bets at some point shortly before or after recording, the 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.679 t Y Hilton injury changed things just a bit after that, 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:45.319 so I admit I hedged a little bit prior to Sunday. 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:47.840 As for our guests Rick Ryan, he whiffed on both 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.120 the Redskins getting ten from the Bills, and the Bears 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.800 getting five from the Eagles as well as Lamar Jackson 0:01:52.920 --> 0:01:55.200 under fifty nine and a half rushing yards, but he 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.760 did hit on the Raiders, laying two to the Lions. Now, 0:01:57.800 --> 0:02:00.520 listeners should also know that I have never heard anyone 0:02:00.600 --> 0:02:03.639 quite as upset about missing three of his four picks 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:07.280 as Rich was. Seriously, he's probably listening, and Rich you 0:02:07.360 --> 0:02:09.760 need to get a hold of yourself anyway, Adam, you've 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:11.320 been our guests a couple of times, as I mentioned, 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:12.679 so I know you are ready to roll. 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:12.800 Here. 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:15.079 Let's jump into it with Pick six, where we each 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:17.760 give three of our favorite bets, either against the spread 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:19.840 or on the over under. Start us off with one 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:21.040 of your favorite bets of the weekend. 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:24.200 All right, I'm just gonna run through these through my 0:02:24.320 --> 0:02:26.880 three here by rotation number, and I'll tell you what 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:30.080 man game two fifty nine to two sixty Atlanta and 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:34.520 New Orleans. I understand why this line is where it is. 0:02:34.600 --> 0:02:36.960 And you've got a Saints team playing as good as 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:40.480 anybody in the NFL. The defense has been fantastic. Now 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:44.560 they've got Drew Brees back, but painted thirteen across across 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:47.040 most of the market there on that bettingpros dot Com 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.880 Odd screen. I've got to look at Atlanta in this one. 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.000 You got a New Orleans team coming off to buy that. 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:54.600 Quite frankly, the way that they were playing, I don't 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.360 think they wanted to buy. The defense had been great, 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.359 you just got Breeze back, and then all this you're 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:04.960 gonna stop for a week. And furthermore, everything went perfectly 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.160 according to plan for New Orleans during that bye week. 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:12.360 Green Bay lost, Minnesota lost, San Francisco looked human against Arizona. 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:14.800 So now New Orleans in the driver's seat, not just 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:17.359 for the number two seed, but possibly the number one 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:19.800 seed in the NFC. I think this is a bad 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:21.800 spot for them. I think they got fat and happy 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:26.120 over the break. Atlanta chance to reset, refocus, maybe wipe 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:28.720 the slate clean a little bit. For whatever reason, the 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:31.760 Falcons didn't fire Dan Quinn and everybody kind of thought 0:03:31.760 --> 0:03:34.360 it was going to happen. Arthur Blank didn't want to 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:36.480 do it, the GM didn't want to do it. Maybe 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:39.080 they feel like he's still got this locker room here. 0:03:39.280 --> 0:03:41.520 They should get Matt Ryan back here this week, and 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:43.720 he should be healthier than he was a couple of 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:46.240 weeks ago when Matt Shab had to play. Atlanta is 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:48.600 the only side for me in that game, and in fact, 0:03:48.640 --> 0:03:50.640 I'm gonna wind up taking it, you know, in the 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:52.240 super contest as well as personally. 0:03:52.520 --> 0:03:54.880 Man, I'm shocked by this one. I'll be honest. I mean, 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:58.640 I don't really have a prompart. The line is huge. 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:01.240 It's a big line. Anytime you see double digits. Frankly, 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:03.520 I like to kind of always take a look at 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:07.080 the underdog just because there's so many ways for them 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:09.800 to cover. I mean, it's just a million ways. When 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:12.000 you look at the breakdown here of what we've got 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:14.840 the it's fifty to fifty actually among the fifty eight 0:04:14.880 --> 0:04:17.880 experts who have put in picks, but the most accurate, 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:19.919 the top twenty percent on the season are with you. 0:04:19.960 --> 0:04:23.480 They're sixty to thirty eight in favor of Atlanta. I mean, look, 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.159 when I look at it, yeah, I can totally see it. 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:29.839 But god, you are a brave man betting on Atlanta. 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:31.320 That's sort of how I feel about it. If I 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:32.720 have to pick a side, I'll go with Atlanta. I 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:34.600 agree with that, but you know, to make it one again, 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:37.680 it's slim Pickens this week to be fair. It's just suck. 0:04:37.839 --> 0:04:41.479 They have just shown absolutely nothing. My worry about it, frankly, 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.120 is not so much the offense. I agree, Ryan's going 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:45.720 to come back. You know, I think they can move 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:47.960 the ball even against a tough defense, because you know 0:04:48.000 --> 0:04:50.960 DeVonta Freeman. The strength of the Saints defense is their 0:04:51.080 --> 0:04:53.720 run defense, not as much their past defense, although overall 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:56.880 it's very strong. Freeman hasn't been doing anything on the 0:04:56.880 --> 0:04:59.599 ground whatsoever. He's held to like thirty yards or less 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:03.400 the vast majority of his games. But on the passing 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:05.440 side with Ryan back, which I agree, he's coming back. 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:08.039 You know, Ridley's getting involved once the new is gone. 0:05:08.440 --> 0:05:11.360 Hooper is having a fantastic season. You always have Julio Jones, 0:05:11.360 --> 0:05:14.400 and Freeman's been great. My big worry, though, is their defense. Man, 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.640 how are they ever gonna stop New Orleans offense? That's 0:05:16.680 --> 0:05:18.359 my only concern in this game. 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:20.680 No, I completely agree. I think it's a fair concern, 0:05:20.760 --> 0:05:22.320 And I don't know, maybe you're maybe one of the 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:24.560 totals you like here could potentially be the over in 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:26.960 this game. But again, I mean, I think you just 0:05:27.000 --> 0:05:30.120 have a Saints team that you upset the rhythm of 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.000 a team. When all of a sudden you run into 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:34.160 a bye week, you want to keep playing week after 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:37.800 week after week, especially because in that Seahawks game they 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:40.120 win by six on the road, although it really wasn't 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:43.440 as close. The Cowboys they win by two, Buccaneers by seven, 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.960 Jaguars by seven. Then they get a couple of lopsided 0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:49.880 wins and you start to feel like maybe this team 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:53.039 just is dominant. But then they get that week off 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:55.719 that kind of slows everything down a little bit. First 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:58.480 of four straight division games in three and a half weeks, 0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:02.000 because they'll play Atlanta on Thanksgiving night on that short 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:04.760 Thursday there the last week of November. Then they get 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:06.960 the forty nine ers and the Colts. So I just 0:06:06.960 --> 0:06:09.120 think that the Saints just kind of have their eyes 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:11.240 on a bigger prize a little bit further down the 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:11.719 line here. 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:13.720 Yeah, I really don't have a problem with it, and again, 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:15.440 most of those games did come without Drew Brees. But 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:17.520 I agree with you. You know, they were rolling, they 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:20.200 are playing well. You know, they're certainly either them or 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:22.479 the forty nine ers seems like the team to beat 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:24.480 in the NFC. So, I mean, I think we both 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:27.320 agree they're gonna win, and probably win pretty handily here. 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:29.120 For me, the big thing that I see on it 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.680 is like I totally see the back door cover, the 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:33.920 back door cover coming at the very end of it, 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:36.160 just sort of Atlantic coming, you know, the Saints kind 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:38.640 of backing off. Thirteen is just such a high number, 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:40.440 and it's too high as to what it should be. 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.000 I mean, I think it should be closer to ten 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:45.039 or eleven. But realistically it's hard for me to take 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.960 the falcon. So I do appreciate your boldness, and if 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:50.159 I am forced to choose a side, that would be 0:06:50.160 --> 0:06:51.719 the side that I would take as well. 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:55.080 The one caveat that I would have here is if 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:57.720 Atlanta comes out of the by and just gets completely 0:06:57.760 --> 0:06:59.800 blown away, and it's certainly a possibility. I mean, the 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:02.440 line suggests it's a possibility. The body of work for 0:07:02.480 --> 0:07:05.760 both teams, as you just mentioned, if Atlanta gets trucked 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:08.120 in this game, I cannot touch them the rest of 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.600 the year, because if they don't show up here, I 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:13.000 don't think they show up anymore here in twenty nineteen. 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:15.160 Yeah, And I think really that's the difference with us. 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:17.160 I think I reached that point like two weeks ago, 0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:19.520 you know, because I you know, I think I backed 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:22.640 them maybe in the Super Contest too against Arizona. I 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:25.320 believe that they might have been giving three and that 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:27.280 was when I still was like, you know, Arizona just 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.640 gives games away. And again they may have covered head 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:32.320 Matt Brian kicked you know, the extra point at the 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.240 end of the game. But I don't know, man, something 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.040 with them. I can't believe Quinn still has a job. 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:38.600 I mean, we've talked about that. That's that's really ridiculous. 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:41.400 But yeah, I agree, certainly if they if they don't 0:07:41.400 --> 0:07:44.240 show up here, there's absolutely no reason to touch them 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:45.960 for the rest of the season. For me, I am 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:49.160 going to start with an over under, and usually with 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:50.680 these I like to go under. I feel like those 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:53.280 are usually this sharper side. But here I'm gonna go 0:07:53.320 --> 0:07:55.640 over and I'm gonna take the Cardinals and the Bucks 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:57.880 over fifty two and a half. Now, this line has 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.000 been trending up all week. It is the highest over 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.080 or under of the week, but sometimes just got to 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.240 steer into the skid a little bit. Now, the analysis 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:07.520 here is pretty simple, right, both teams have solid two 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:10.240 above average offenses. The Bucks have not been held to 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.160 fewer than twenty three points since Week two, and they've 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:16.240 played some tough defenses in that span, with the Titans, 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:18.600 the Panthers, the Saints, and the Rams. They've got a 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:20.920 ton of weapons on offense. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:23.960 are studs. They're finally getting Ronald Jones involved. And you know, 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:26.640 I host a fantasy football podcast. I've teased my very 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:29.920 good friend Mike Tagler mercilessly about how high he has 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:32.720 kept oj Howard in his fantasy ranks for rest of season. 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:34.720 But assuming that Howard plays here and he is trending 0:08:34.760 --> 0:08:36.520 in that direction, I think he's going to have a 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.720 big game. The Cardinals defense has been weak all year 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:41.480 against tight ends. Patrick Peterson has not made much of 0:08:41.520 --> 0:08:44.599 a difference. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the fastest team in 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:48.480 the NFL offensively under Cliff Kingsbury's offense. The Bucks can 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:51.840 stop the run, but they cannot stop the pass. Murray 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:54.480 is gonna throw, He's going to run. And I've run 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:56.760 through this game a million different times. I just cannot 0:08:56.760 --> 0:08:59.840 see a scenario, absent in injury to one of the quarterbacks, 0:09:00.080 --> 0:09:02.320 where it's not a shootout. Plus you I mean, you 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:04.440 can pretty much bank on the fact that Winston is 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:06.920 going to have a massive turnover at some point, a 0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:09.600 pick six or a fumble deep in his own territory 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:12.120 that's gonna lead to points. I don't like the spread here. 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.760 I can't really trust either team these I don't like 0:09:14.800 --> 0:09:16.920 to back either one of these teams. But on the over, 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:18.480 even though it's fifty two and a half and that's 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:20.200 a high number, I just it's hard for me to 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:22.880 see any way that this game is in a massive 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:25.040 shootout with a really really high point total. 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:26.800 Yeah, I think that makes sense. I mean, again, you've 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.000 got two relatively suspect defenses here. I mean, Tampa Bay 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:32.240 is maybe a little bit better than we thought that 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:36.640 they would be. But you're the Winston thing. My god, 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:41.440 the guy. He makes so many just tremendous arm talent 0:09:41.520 --> 0:09:45.000 throws and so many awful decisions, not just in the 0:09:45.040 --> 0:09:47.920 span of a season or in a game, but like 0:09:48.280 --> 0:09:50.920 on a drive, Like he'll make a throw that you 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:54.000 just you're blown away by. Then the next one it's 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:57.880 just like, what are you doing, dude? It's I don't 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:00.679 think I've ever seen a player that, in consistent from 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:03.440 one play to the next at the quarterback position, maybe 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:06.240 like a Jeff George type of dude or something like that. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:09.439 It's just it's unbelievable. But I, like you said, I mean, 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:11.360 I think it's hard to see either team providing a 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:13.839 whole lot of resistance here Tampa Bay and one of 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:16.000 the few places in November where the weather won't be 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:19.480 too bad at least usually not. So, I mean, I 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:21.480 get it. It makes sense. It is interesting to see 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:23.720 the line coming down a little bit from the opening total, 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:25.920 but I don't want to step in front of these 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:26.679 two offenses. 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.120 Oh see, that's interesting because I thought the line had 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:30.880 actually moved up a point from where I had it 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:32.840 at the look of the headline has had it moved 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:33.920 down from the look aadline. 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:36.800 It looks like I'm seeing it pinnacle. It opened fifty 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:38.160 four early in the week. 0:10:38.600 --> 0:10:40.920 Interesting, Okay, So when I did the look aheadline, I 0:10:40.960 --> 0:10:42.800 had it at fifty one and a half, So it 0:10:42.880 --> 0:10:45.760 might have dropped significantly early on. There might have been 0:10:45.800 --> 0:10:48.360 some sharp money really pushing it down because I had 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:50.640 it coming up as the week went on. But that 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:53.319 I mean, if it opened at fifty four, that might 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:55.360 be a little something where I would get a little 0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:57.640 nervous about taking them. I mean, I probably still would 0:10:57.640 --> 0:10:59.679 because I really feel like this game is gonna be 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:03.280 Montra again. The big thing here is a couple of things. 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:06.800 Number One, both teams are capable of massively explosive plays. 0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:08.679 I mean Mike Evans with the air yards that he's 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:11.400 getting all season long, it's just every play is just 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.160 a bomb to him. Both teams can score really quickly. 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:17.240 It's not sort of a slow, grinded out game. You know. 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:19.640 The Cardinals don't, you know, run the ball a crazy 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:21.280 amount anyway, and they're not going to be able to 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:23.000 run it on the Bucks, but they are going to 0:11:23.040 --> 0:11:24.360 be able to throw it. And again, I think the 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:25.680 Bucks are really going to be able to move it. 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:27.800 So in the end, it's a high total, the highest 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:30.000 of the week. But you know, for me, I feel 0:11:30.040 --> 0:11:32.320 relatively confident that I'm not going to be sweating this 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:33.560 one out in the fourth quarter. 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:35.920 I think it's just one of those types of situations 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:39.640 where you know, you see some high totals in the NFL, 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:41.840 but you generally don't see totals up in that fifty 0:11:41.880 --> 0:11:44.840 three to fifty four range. And when you get outliers 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:47.800 like that. Sharp money usually just plays against it, just 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:50.800 solely on principle, So I don't think i'd worry too 0:11:50.920 --> 0:11:53.480 much about the line. Move here, and I will say this, 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:56.319 get in on this one, you know, relatively quickly, because 0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.920 public money will drive this back up as we get 0:11:58.960 --> 0:11:59.800 closer to kickoff. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:02.000 And I'm just looking a little bit at the breakdown 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:04.200 right now. I mean, you're you're about right. More bets 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:07.400 are coming in on Atlanta, but more money is coming 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:09.760 in on the same so it's not a crazy amount. 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.160 The split of it. It's you know, relatively in you know, 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:15.680 in line as a general matter, but it certainly is 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.120 something where when the number of bets is out numbered 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:19.959 by the money that's coming in, you can tell there's 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:22.640 been some sharp action, at least initially that was pushing 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:24.280 it down. Let's move on to your second pick. What 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:24.920 do you got? 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.480 Yeah, I'm gonna take a look here. Two sixty five 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:30.000 by rotation order the Detroit Lions or plus two and 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.800 a half against the Chicago Bears. And look, early in 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.360 the week it was three. It certainly would have been 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:36.920 better to get three. But as far as I'm concerned, 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:38.800 looking at the body of work for these two teams, 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.800 and I know Detroit is a square side here this week. 0:12:42.040 --> 0:12:43.880 I know some sharp money has kind of shown a 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.280 little bit of interest in taking Chicago, maybe in a 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.320 by low type of situation, but I don't see how 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:53.240 Chicago can lay points against any average to above average 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.240 team right now. Matt Nagy just has no clue on offense. 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.920 Trubisky's a disaster. I don't know why they don't just 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.120 go with Chase Daniel decide that they're going to draft 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:04.360 a quarterback. Detroit's looked pretty good, and you know you 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.000 mentioned that on last week's show. Your previous guest had 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.439 Oakland minus two, and I had them in the Super 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:12.640 Contest as well, but we got damn lucky getting that one. 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.520 Detroit had a turnover just outside the red zone, a 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.920 pick in the end zone, they had that goal line 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:19.959 stand at the end of the game. They basically gave 0:13:20.080 --> 0:13:22.839 seventeen points away to Oakland, you know, with some of 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:25.960 the turnovers and with their field position there. So Detroit 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.560 another game that they should have won, and you can 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.560 hold that against them. You could say there's been games 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:32.640 this season that they should have come away with a 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:37.640 victory in but Division game here, Stafford's playing great, Detroit's 0:13:37.679 --> 0:13:40.040 defense has been playing pretty well. It seems like Matt 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:43.040 Patricia's defensive influence is really starting to weigh in here 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.920 this season. This isn't necessarily as much of a play 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:48.520 on Detroit as it is a fate of Chicago, but 0:13:49.040 --> 0:13:52.199 the Bears just don't deserve to be laying points against 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:54.440 any team playing as well as Detroit has this year. 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:57.480 Yeah, I could not agree with this more actually, And 0:13:57.840 --> 0:13:59.640 on Monday, you know, we take a look at the 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:01.600 lines where they are at that point, guessing where they 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:03.920 might move or not, And Dave Cochan was our guest. 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:06.680 We both talked about this line as being I don't 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:09.880 get it whatsoever. I completely agree there is just no 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:13.360 way you can trust the Bears doing anything at this 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.960 point offensively. I mean, I get that Matt Maggie is 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.520 trying to rely on David Montgomery more right to run 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.040 the ball because frankly, you've got to take the ball 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:25.160 away from Mitchell Drubisky because he cannot do anything. He's 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:29.200 completely regressed offensively. And again, the only hesitation is the 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.520 exact point that you made, which is the Lions kind 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:34.720 of have this knack of giving away these games that 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.160 it seems like they should win. Right against the Raiders, 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:39.520 they did it early on in the first game, I believe, 0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.000 the season against the Cardinals where they wound up tying 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:44.120 even though they were way ahead. So they do have 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.920 the knack for doing that. But I completely agree with you. 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.520 It is less about the Lions and much more about 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:52.600 the Bears, and you got to fade them, particularly on offense. 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.240 So I really really like this second pick actually, and 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.000 it actually feeds into my second pick, which is on 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.960 the same game, and it's the under on forty two 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:02.680 and a half on the over under. So I mean, 0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:06.480 I've been taking the Bears under pretty much the entire year, 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:08.920 and it's been a pretty solid place to live for 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:11.360 really much of the reason that you describe. They've played 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:14.640 eight games, they've been below thirty seven points in five 0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:17.600 of them, and they've been above forty six points just once. 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.280 Their defense isn't quite as vauntid as it once was, 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:25.040 but it's still an above average unit overall. Really, again, 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.480 it's their offense. Mitchell Trubisky is terrible. There are no 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:31.000 signs of life from the passing offense. He was almost 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.040 benched at halftime last week now. He did come out 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:34.600 and did have a much better second half, but I 0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:36.880 believe they had nine yards at the half or something 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:38.600 like that. They went three and out in their first 0:15:38.640 --> 0:15:41.600 five drives, so they're really just not doing it whatsoever. 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.680 And again, the ground game is fine, but it's not 0:15:43.960 --> 0:15:47.440 quite as you know, explosive as you really are gonna 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:49.800 need it to be if you're gonna have to have 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.480 a quarterback like Mitchell Trubisky. Meanwhile, on the other side 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:54.520 of the ball, Detroit can certainly move the ball fine, 0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:57.600 but it's not a matchup that sets up particularly well 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:01.120 for the type of offensive, you know, game plan that 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:03.680 they have. The Bears have been vulnerable on the ground 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:05.680 since the Keeam Hicks went out. But the Lions just 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:08.720 really have no running game. They haven't really all season. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.600 They certainly haven't since carry On Johnson went out, Ty Johnson, JD. McKissick. 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:14.480 They're just not gonna get the carries or have that 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:18.160 same success. The Lions their strength and their passing offense, 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:20.840 their receivers, Kenny Galladay is great, Marvin Jones is still 0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:23.040 doing well. Danny A. Mondola pops up these good games 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:25.440 about half the time. But the Bears are pretty good 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:27.960 against the posing wide receivers. They've allowed just three touchdowns 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.480 to them all year. They allow less than eleven yards 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.160 per reception to wide receivers. Both of those are third 0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:35.240 best in the league. So this has the feel to 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.600 me of a slower game where the Lions, you know, 0:16:37.680 --> 0:16:40.240 kind of rely on their tight ends like Hawkinson and James, 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:42.560 and they kind of methodically move the ball up and 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.640 down the field. So again, don't forget we're in November. 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.120 It's Chicago, it's going to be cold. That kind of 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.000 sets up well for the under. So I agree, I 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.960 like Detroit, but I also like the under at forty 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:53.520 two and a half. 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:55.840 Well, and you look at the Bears here this season. 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:57.520 I mean the game in which they scored more than 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:00.640 thirty points, they were plus four and turnover they got 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:04.520 five takeaways against Washington won that game thirty one to fifteen. 0:17:04.800 --> 0:17:07.720 Their other season high twenty five points against the Saints. 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.320 But I mean, this is a Bears team. They've exceeded 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.720 three hundred yards once on the season. We thought they'd 0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.040