1 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: On this episode of Nuts World. Since Russia invaded Ukraine 2 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: in February twenty twenty two, Yaroslav Trofumov has spent months 3 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:15,240 Speaker 1: at the heart of the conflict, very often on its 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:18,599 Speaker 1: front lines. In his new book, Our Enemies Will Vanish 5 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: the Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence, he traces 6 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,760 Speaker 1: the war's decisive moments to show how Ukraine and its 7 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:29,720 Speaker 1: allies have turned the tide against Russia, one of the 8 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 1: world's great military powers, in a modern day battle of 9 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: David and Goliath. Putin had intended to conquer an annex 10 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: Ukraine with a vicious blitzkrig redrawing the map of Europe 11 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 1: in a few short weeks with seismic geopolitical consequences. But 12 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: in the face of this existential threat, the Ukrainian people 13 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: fought back, turning what looked like certain defeat into a 14 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: great moral victory, even as the territorial battle continues to 15 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: this day. For Trufumov, this war is deeply personal. He 16 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: grew up in Kiev and his family has lived there 17 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 1: for generations. Here to talk about his new book, I'm 18 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 1: really pleased to welcome my guest, Yaroslav Trefemov. He is 19 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 1: the chief Foreign affairs correspondent of the Wall Street Journal 20 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,399 Speaker 1: and was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize and International Reporting 21 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: for two consecutive years. Jaroslav, welcome and thank you for 22 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: joining me on newts World. 23 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 2: Great to be in the show. Thank you. 24 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 1: You were born in Ukraine and came back to write 25 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: about the Russian invasion in twenty twenty two. What was 26 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: Ukraine like when you were growing up? 27 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 2: Oh, you know, back nime it was the Soviet Union 28 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 2: was no such thing as an independent Ukraine. The current 29 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 2: blue and yellow fog of Ukraine was outlawed. He would 30 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 2: go to prison for even drawing it on a piece 31 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,760 Speaker 2: of paper. You know, the language of instruction must causals Russian. 32 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,360 Speaker 2: And you know, the Soviet Union was pursuing a very 33 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 2: efficient policy of for rassification. The reason why half the 34 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 2: people in Ukraine speak Russian today is because of that policy, 35 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 2: because their parents or grandparents you to speak Ukrainian. 36 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:16,960 Speaker 1: Was it a happy place? Was it the place you 37 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: wanted to leave or what was your feeling? 38 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 2: Well, you know it was a place that I left. 39 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 2: I left it in nineteen ninety before the Suviecunion collapsed, 40 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 2: and the difference between Ukraine today in Ukraine then is 41 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 2: staggering because an entire new society was born in those 42 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 2: thirty plus years, and the generations that have come into 43 00:02:37,880 --> 00:02:42,799 Speaker 2: being in a free, independent Ukraine are hugely different from 44 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 2: their parents and grandparents because they don't have that fear 45 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 2: that was built into the Soviet system. They have the 46 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 2: creativity which they have shown in this war, and they 47 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 2: have this desire, the really strong desire to remain free. 48 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,679 Speaker 2: If you look at the history of independent Ukraine, out 49 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:00,679 Speaker 2: of the six presidents it has had on Knew, one 50 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 2: was reelected and twice the weare uprisings when there was 51 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 2: an attempt to rig the vote or to basically create 52 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 2: a more authoritarian system. 53 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: Ukraine has been wrestling with and steadily, I think, becoming 54 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 1: a freer society in a more Western society, which may 55 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: be part of the threat that Putin felt that if 56 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,119 Speaker 1: Ukraine was really successful, that the signal that would send 57 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: to Russians who were living in a place that was 58 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: not successful would in fact have endangered his whole regime. 59 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: Because you're so knowledgeable, what do you want every American 60 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: to know about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 61 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much. I think the invasion of 62 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 2: Ukraine was the first step in put in this plan 63 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: for a much greater rebuilding first the Soviet Empire and 64 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 2: then rebuilding the influence that Soviet Union used to have 65 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 2: in half of Europe. And they, you know, Putting made 66 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: it clear when he proposed Head of THEES He's peace 67 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 2: offering the rolling back of NATO essentially so the patrol 68 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: of worldly American and other Western forces from NATO countries 69 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 2: what used to be the former Warsaw Pact. He clearly 70 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 2: sees Ukraine as part of Russia. He has written this 71 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 2: essay six months before the war, very long historical essay 72 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 2: that is called on the historical unity of the Russian 73 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:25,920 Speaker 2: and Ukrainian peoples. And if he had been able to 74 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 2: get away with his initial plan of conquering and supporting Ukraine, 75 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 2: and it would be having a war in another European country. Now. 76 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: Probably my sense was that if he could have won 77 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: pretty decisively, that Poland and Estonia, a lot Fia in 78 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:47,039 Speaker 1: Lithuania would all have been under threat. But I'm curious 79 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 1: because you know, the American Chairman of the Joint Chiefs 80 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 1: himself said in public and I think in the Senate 81 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: hearing that he thought that the Russians would get to 82 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: Kiev in three days, and my hunter that that's what 83 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: Putin's generals were telling him, wasn't in that sense. The 84 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: ability of Ukraine to slow down and stop the Russian 85 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: offensive sort of a remarkable shock to everybody. 86 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 2: I think Ukraine was and remains today an extremely misunderstood country, 87 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:25,720 Speaker 2: misunderstood by and misappreciated, underappreciated by the Russians and by 88 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 2: the West until recently. And that comes from this lack 89 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 2: of understanding just how much it has changed in three 90 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 2: decades of independence. The Ukraine that was around in twenty 91 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,039 Speaker 2: twenty two is not the Ukraine that people used to 92 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 2: know in the nineties, the corrupt, hopeless place of just 93 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 2: finding its way as a nation. There was a sense 94 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 2: of purpose, there was a pride, there was an experience 95 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 2: of fighting the Russians, because, let's not forget it, the 96 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 2: war began in twenty fourteen, not inwenty twenty two. Fourteen 97 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,599 Speaker 2: thousand people died in the war in Dunbas in twenty fourteen. 98 00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 2: At the time, the West didn't help Ukraine. The West 99 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 2: by President Obama famously said there is nothing the US 100 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 2: can do to stop the Russians from controlling Ukraine. Yes, 101 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 2: puting belief that the Ukrainians will not fight, that the 102 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 2: will surrender and mass and in a matter of days 103 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,679 Speaker 2: Kiv will be taken over. And so died the West 104 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,360 Speaker 2: into the US government to close the embassy in Kiev, 105 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: pulled out the diplomats, and basically gave Ukraine a little 106 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 2: bit of weapons for insurgency, kind of like the Mujahidi 107 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 2: in Afghanistan, you know, a few boxes of javelins, some 108 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: stingers and good luck. So the expectation was that Ukraine 109 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 2: is a functioning state, which ceased to exist with a 110 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 2: new week or two. 111 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: Because I remember at the time that the Obama administration 112 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:43,679 Speaker 1: sort of had an attitude of we'll send you meals 113 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: ready to eat and will send you sleeping bags. Well, 114 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 1: we won't send you any lethal weapons. One of the 115 00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: major changes occurred. Trump authorized javelins, you know, are very 116 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: effective tank killers, and that part of what hit the 117 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: rush was they in fact were really losing equipment and 118 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 1: losing vehicles, and because of a very intelligent use of 119 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: drones and of GPS, Ukrainians forces in that opening blitzkrig 120 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 1: were able to just chop the columns up, hit the 121 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: front in the back, leaving everything in between isolated. And 122 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: it was an astonishing campaign in the initial surge, and 123 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: I think the Russian logistics system was so bad that 124 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: they just kind of fell apart. 125 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 2: Right, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the javelins. 126 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 2: Ukraine only had ninety javelins when the war began nine 127 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: zero against thousands of thousands of Russian tanks armored vehicles. 128 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 2: The British were more courageous and they supplied about two 129 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 2: thousand in law anto net missiles, which I did see 130 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 2: with my own eyes of being deployed in the battlefield. 131 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 2: I was in Ukraine since January and I wasn't key 132 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 2: of when the war began. But really the initial fight 133 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 2: compelling the initial Russian attempt to take Yev was mostly 134 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 2: carry out using old school sovietween the weapons, artillery, and 135 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 2: antier defenses the Ukraine managed to preserve and thanks so 136 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 2: it was really the old Ukrainian army used its vintage 137 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 2: ammunition and vintage resources that repelled the initial Russian drive. 138 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 2: Only after that did the US and Allies start supplying 139 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 2: American artillery, multiple rocket systems, and everything else that came 140 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,439 Speaker 2: after that, including the sixteens that are now win the pipeline. 141 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: To what extent do you think the situation really dramatically 142 00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:44,679 Speaker 1: changed because the Russian system just broke down? And to 143 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: what extent was it the sort of methodical organization of 144 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 1: the Ukrainian people. 145 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 2: I think it's both. I think on one hand, the 146 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 2: Russians clearly weren't prepared for a fight, and I remember 147 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,679 Speaker 2: talking to people around Zelenski before the boy began, and 148 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 2: you know, the SAI director had just flown to Kiev 149 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 2: to warn them in great detail about the coming invasion, 150 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 2: and they were really disbelieving because they were looking at 151 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 2: the number of soldiers on the Ukraine's borders. It was 152 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 2: fewer than two hundred thousand troops. They were shaking their 153 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 2: heads and saying, how are they going to invade the 154 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 2: largest country in Europe by landmasks other than Russian with 155 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:24,199 Speaker 2: such a small army. And they were correct in retrospect, 156 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 2: because Putting's entire war plan was premised to the idea 157 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 2: that Ukraine will just collapse, I will not fight, And 158 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 2: you know, the troops coming to Kiev were carrying parade 159 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 2: uniforms for them, and the commander of Ukraine Forces, Journals Illusioning, 160 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 2: really decided to trade territory for preservational forces for times. 161 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 2: So instead of fighting for every village on the border, 162 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,760 Speaker 2: he pulled back the forces and then he attacked the 163 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,720 Speaker 2: Russian supply lines that were overstretched and really made it 164 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 2: impossible within a month of the Russian army besieging Kiev 165 00:09:56,400 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 2: to continue the siege, and so they had to withdraw 166 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 2: Suffric treminous losses at the end of March. I think 167 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 2: what also changed is that Putting had this idea that 168 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,680 Speaker 2: a big Soviet army would be finding a small Soviet army, 169 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 2: in which case the outcome would be preordained. But Ukraine, 170 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 2: though it didn't receive little weapons except for huge avelins 171 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 2: from the West in the eight years since the conflict 172 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 2: began twenty fourteen, they didn't receive a lot of training. 173 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 2: So there were British, Canadian American instructors training Ukrainian officers 174 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 2: in native Uktrine in this giant camp called Yavodiv on 175 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 2: the Polish border, and they trained them in the idea 176 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:37,199 Speaker 2: of mission command, which meant that commanders on lower levels 177 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 2: had full authority to engage the enemy as long as 178 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 2: it was within the objective set by the Central staff. 179 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 2: In a conflict where Russia was advancing from eleven different 180 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 2: directions at the same time, this ability to delegate this 181 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 2: freedom that the Ukrainian commanders had it's over really saved Ukraine. 182 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,679 Speaker 2: And this sort of system is only possible in a 183 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 2: country that is more or less democratic, where the army 184 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 2: functions and trust, as opposed to the Russian army, which 185 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 2: really is based on fear, fear of superiors, in which 186 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 2: the bad news don't reported up the chain of command 187 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 2: for the fear of angering superiors and therefore bad decisions 188 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 2: keep being made. 189 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 1: And of course that model was one which we had 190 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 1: developed for a long period of time, which allows us 191 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 1: to delegate authority down to sergeants and corporals that in 192 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: some armies get stuck up in majors and lieutenant colonels. 193 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 1: I'm curious, so when you mentioned earlier, correctly they fighting 194 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 1: in the DNBAS that actually was the same period as 195 00:11:36,200 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: the occupation of Crimea. What is your sense about whether 196 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: in the long run Crimea is returned to Ukraine or 197 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: Crimea becomes Russian And do you see that different than 198 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,079 Speaker 1: the fighting and the Dambas well. 199 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 2: I mean the conflict in Donbas and Crimea was different 200 00:11:54,760 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 2: at the inception because the Ukrainian army did not fight 201 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 2: for Crimea, putting too advantage of Mayhem and Kiev change 202 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 2: of government, you know, president being ousted and Russia, which 203 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 2: had regular forces in Crimea and just seized it, and 204 00:12:09,080 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 2: the Ukrainian soldiers did not resist. Ukrainian have much of 205 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 2: an army either at the time. In Dunbas, a few 206 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 2: months later, the Ukrainian army tried to resist, but by 207 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 2: then there was this influx of volunteer units, people just 208 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 2: picking up arms to defend the Ukraine, and they were 209 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:28,520 Speaker 2: much more successful in Dunbas. And one thirdy of Dunbas 210 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,040 Speaker 2: was in Russian hands until the full scale of vision 211 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,079 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two. In both areas, there's been a 212 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 2: great demographic change. In Dunbas, most of the population has fled. 213 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 2: Nobody wanted to live into the Russian occupation, so people 214 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 2: fled to Ukraine. The rest of Ukraine, people fled to Europe, 215 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 2: people fled to Russia. But there's nothing to do. And 216 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,079 Speaker 2: then he had skill of hunsk it run the gangsters 217 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 2: every man From eighteen to sixty pretty much has been 218 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 2: conscripted two years ago and sent to die, and there 219 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 2: is no economy. Cremea has seen an outflow of all 220 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 2: so hundreds of thousands, maybe million people Crimean Tatars, Ukrainians 221 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 2: others who are lowered Ukraine and a huge influx of 222 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 2: settlers from mainland Russia. Ukraine's goal remains to liberate Crimea 223 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 2: one day. How realisticant is right now? Right now it's 224 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 2: Russia that's on the offensive an Ukraine's army is starved 225 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 2: with amminition and has to retreat because US military it 226 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: has been cut off for several months now. 227 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 1: It strikes me that there's a real key message though 228 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 1: in they're well, Ukraine has not tried to retake Crimea. 229 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: They've had a brilliant maritime campaign in which they have 230 00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: shattered the Russian black sea fleet way that nobody would 231 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: have predicted back two years ago. I mean, isn't that 232 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: one of the great Ukrainian success stories of this campaign? 233 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely absolutely, And it's also I think it's a 234 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 2: model of the Turrens that Ukraine is trying to do 235 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 2: to replicate in the air domain. Now, what happened is 236 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 2: that Ukraine demonstrated not just that it's able to take 237 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 2: down several ships in the Russian Black Sea fleet, including 238 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 2: the flagship We're walking by dozens of ships and strike 239 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: the headquarters, but also demonstrated its ability to strike the 240 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 2: part of Numberosisk, which is not in Crimea, which is 241 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 2: in the normal Caucasus, which is Russia's most important port. 242 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 2: It's not just the base of the fleet, but this 243 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 2: is the most important port for Russian all exports. And 244 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 2: the moment Ukraine did show it can strike it, Russia 245 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 2: really stopped its attempts to interfere with shipping from Odessa 246 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: Ukraine the import and so the blockade of Edessa collapsed, 247 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 2: and now Desa is shipping more goods out of Ukrainian 248 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 2: into Ukraine than it was before the war. So Russia's 249 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 2: attempt to jungle Ukraine economically was thwarted, and by creating 250 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 2: a very credible threat to Russia's own economy. And I 251 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 2: think that's what the Crain's trying to do now by 252 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 2: using drones to strike oil refineries and other strategic industries 253 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 2: inside Russia hundreds of miles away. I mean really, strike 254 00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 2: was nearly a thousand miles away in this sort of 255 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 2: two for tat that Ukrainians hope will make Russians think 256 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 2: twice about hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, which they've been doing with 257 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 2: great frequency using North Korean ballistic missiles and made drones 258 00:15:31,240 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 2: in addition to Russia's own weaponry. 259 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 1: One of the surprises of this war is how limited 260 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: the Russian military industrial complex was and how much they've 261 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 1: had to buy from Iran and China and North Korea. 262 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think anybody would have expected North 263 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: Korea and Iran to become major suppliers of military capability, 264 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: but it's clear that the internal Russian system is literally 265 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: not capable of meeting the challenge that they now got. Well. 266 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 2: Ye absolutely, I think corruption was part of that, both 267 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 2: corruption in the military industries, corruption and intelligence services, because 268 00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 2: allegedly all this Ukrainian officials and military commanders were on 269 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 2: Russian peril and Putting was expecting them to switch sides 270 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: on the day of the invasion, and they didn't because 271 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 2: probably a lot of that money was cammed along the way, 272 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 2: thankfully for your Crain and they having a lot of 273 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 2: mysterious death of Russian military industry, you know, CEOs and 274 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 2: other senior officials since then and detentions and corruption trials. 275 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 2: I think Russia thought it is a much stronger power 276 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 2: than it is because it showcased its mighty in Syria, 277 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 2: and in Syria it was very successful. But in Syria, 278 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 2: turn To played about three three thousand troops, and the 279 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: rest of the world thought the rest of the Russian 280 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 2: army is as good as those best formations and the 281 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 2: best pilots and the best planes of the Central Syria. 282 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 2: But the rest of the Russian army was not that bad. 283 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 2: The rest of the Russian Army was still stuck in 284 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 2: the Soviet era. 285 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: Well, and of course the classic Soviet are involved such 286 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 1: a huge force that Putin can't replicate it. I mean, 287 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: whatever he's trying to do, he's not going to get 288 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 1: the level of power that Stalin had and the sheer 289 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: im mobilization that occurred in World War Two. 290 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 2: Let's run by history, and when the Soviet Union invated 291 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:29,000 Speaker 2: Finland the outset of the Second World War, Finland had 292 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,680 Speaker 2: about three and a half million people. Soviet Unions sent 293 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:35,479 Speaker 2: nine hundred thousand soldiers to Finland, still failed to take 294 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 2: kill Sinki. Finland still held them and they lost some territory. 295 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 2: But they survived as an independent country. And that's why 296 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,679 Speaker 2: the Ukrainians and they were watching the Russian sent two 297 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 2: hundred thousand men into Ukraine, a country of forty million people, 298 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:51,119 Speaker 2: or scratching the hands and saying, what are they thinking. 299 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: I haven't seen Putin able to generate the sheer combat 300 00:17:56,160 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: power that Stalin did. I mean, when Stalin understood how 301 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: good the Fins were and how hard they were going 302 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 1: to be to beat Ian, he just really poured an 303 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: enormous amount of combat power into the Finish border. You 304 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: haven't seen anything like that scale from pood. 305 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 2: Well. First of all, Russia is not the Soviet Union. 306 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 2: It's a smaller country with an aging demographic. Not a 307 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 2: lot of kids were born in the nineteen nineties because 308 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 2: of all the economic troubles there, so they not actually 309 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 2: that many young men who are that are available to fight, 310 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 2: and a lot of them motifight. So Puting for political reasons, 311 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 2: refused to mobilize until losing Harkif and Hasson in September 312 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, and so by then his professional army 313 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 2: was pretty much destroyed. But when he did mobilize, three 314 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:50,400 Speaker 2: hundred thousand soldiers more than a million Russians fled the country. 315 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 2: And that's the difference because they couldn't flee into Stalion, 316 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 2: but in current Russia they could just stop in a 317 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 2: plane flight to Dubai. The ticket to Dubai was eight 318 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 2: thousand dollars one way on the day you out of 319 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 2: the mobilization an economy class. 320 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: I have to say, someone who's making a lot of 321 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 1: money out of those airplane flights. 322 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 2: Well, certainly, yes, yes, And then there's also the issue 323 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,560 Speaker 2: of gear. You know, what are you going to arm 324 00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:17,120 Speaker 2: these trips with. You know, the Russian military industries are 325 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 2: not able to produce what the Soviets are producing. The 326 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 2: Ukrainians knocked down on the Russian awax planes. They are 327 00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 2: irreplaceable because Russia cannot make them. There's are Soviet legacy planes. 328 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,719 Speaker 2: Half of their staff that's in them was made in Ukraine, 329 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,199 Speaker 2: and the Ukraine had the main aircraft engine plant in 330 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 2: the Soviet Union in that region. And the same goes 331 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 2: for lots of other stuff. So right now Ukraine destroys 332 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 2: probably three times as many tanks and how it serves 333 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 2: in a month. Then Russia is able to either build 334 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 2: or repair for you know, using salvaged parts and really 335 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 2: old models. This mathematics of attrition actually doesn't work in 336 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 2: Russia's favor as long as Ukraine is able to draw 337 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,440 Speaker 2: on the industrial base of the West and on the 338 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 2: money from the way. 339 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: It's very important that we communicate with our listeners how 340 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 1: vital it is that the United States sustain its support 341 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: and sustain the flow of ammunition and equipment. But I 342 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 1: have to take a brief, won't ask you about one 343 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: of the more startling things that has to I think 344 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 1: have some impact on Putent's thinking, and that was the 345 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:28,439 Speaker 1: attack at the concert hall outside Moscow where Islamic gunmen 346 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: killed over one hundred and thirty people. Then there's a 347 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: lot of arguing about exactly who sent them and who 348 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 1: Different people are claiming different things, But I think this 349 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:42,240 Speaker 1: was the biggest Russian disaster since Beslon. So what extent 350 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:47,880 Speaker 1: is that kind of attack inside Russia shake the system 351 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 1: or shake people's confidence in the system. 352 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 2: Well, I'd say hard to measure, because there's no longer 353 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:56,120 Speaker 2: any opinion polling in Russia. If you say the wrong 354 00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 2: thing to the upholster on the phone, you can get arrested. 355 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 2: People have been putting really in the depth of his 356 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 2: soul beliefs that Ukraine was somehow responsible for the attack 357 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 2: and crocus because if you don't believe that that, you 358 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 2: have to admit the you've been fighting the wrong enemy. 359 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,479 Speaker 2: His entire worldview would shatter, and the image of Russia 360 00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:19,080 Speaker 2: as he's building it, because you know, in the Russian propaganda, 361 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 2: Russia is now the leader of the global South, and 362 00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 2: the Muslim world is its ally, and it's fighting against 363 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,400 Speaker 2: colonial domination by the West of the rest of the world, 364 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 2: you know, on behalf of the global majority. He gave 365 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 2: his speech saying it's impossible for Muslims to attack Russia 366 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 2: because we was actual friends with Muslims. I mean, obviously 367 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 2: lots of Muslim countries were also attacked by Islamic states. 368 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 2: They didn't stop them from killing. Most of the victims 369 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 2: of Islamic states were actually Muslims. Look, it's what they've 370 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 2: been doing in the know, in Iraq and Syria and 371 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 2: other places in twenty fourteen and fifteen, I think putting 372 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 2: lives in a delusionary world, I mean, and the reason 373 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 2: why in the vated Ukraine is the biggest proof, because 374 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 2: he really believed that the Ukrainians are Russians and will 375 00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 2: not fight. 376 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: You know, when you talk about Ukraine in that context, 377 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,680 Speaker 1: it seems to me that there was a brief period 378 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,480 Speaker 1: right after World War One where there was a Ukrainian 379 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 1: independence movement. Then there was a terrible period where Stalin 380 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 1: deliberately starved Ukrainian farmers and millions died as a result 381 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,360 Speaker 1: of deliberate Soviet policy. And then right after World War 382 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 1: Two you ended up, if I remember correctly, with a 383 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 1: pretty significant resistance movement for two or three years. I 384 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: mean that really was making a challenging Yeah, I mean. 385 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 2: The Ukrainian idea has been run for quite a long time. 386 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 2: And the title of my book, our Aimals will Vanish, 387 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 2: that's a line from the Ukrainian national anthem that was 388 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 2: written in the eighteen sixties in Kiev and goes, our 389 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 2: animals will vanish like you at sunrise, very optimistic and 390 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 2: very non bloody set of expectation of the enemies just 391 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 2: going away. And at the time, the Ukrainian language was 392 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,399 Speaker 2: banned and the Ukraine books could not be printed, and 393 00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:59,320 Speaker 2: the authors of this anthem were persecuted by the Russian authorities. 394 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 2: After the First World War, it was indeed a Ukrainian 395 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 2: People's Republic in Kiev, and there was another Ukrainian Republic. 396 00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 2: The Bolsheviks and Lenin realized that the only way they 397 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 2: could control Ukraine is by allowing this idea of Ukrainian 398 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 2: nationhood in Ukrainian identity, and so there was the Soviet 399 00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 2: Union with the Ukrainian Soviet Republic that in the nineteen 400 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 2: twenties nineteen thirties was really Ukrainian. There was a policy 401 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 2: of Ukrainization, you know, all officials had to speak Ukrainian, 402 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,160 Speaker 2: and a lot of the leaders of the Ukrainian Independent State, 403 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 2: including its president Roshevsky, returned to Ukraine to be Rjoshruszewski 404 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 2: was head of the Academy of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic. 405 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: And then Stallion in nineteen thirties destroyed all that as 406 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 2: a term in Ukraine, the executive Reinaissance, because much of 407 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 2: the Ukrainian cultural and intellectual elite was just shot in 408 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 2: the head and in the prison camps and in Krarelia 409 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 2: in Northern Russia. And then there was a terrible famine 410 00:23:58,160 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 2: and lots of other bad things up in Ukraine, which 411 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 2: is reason why Ukraine is a fighting today because they 412 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,400 Speaker 2: know what happens when the Russians come and take over. 413 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: Part of what I think it's hard for most Americans 414 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:29,719 Speaker 1: realizes that Kiev was actually the center of Russian civilization 415 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: up until the Mongols attack, and that the Great Wealth, 416 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: the Great Education, the great churches were in Kiev. And 417 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 1: Moscow was actually a relatively small settlement in the middle 418 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: of the forest, which is part of what protected it 419 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,960 Speaker 1: from the Mongols. Plus it paid tribute. But it seems 420 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:51,560 Speaker 1: to me that there is a deep historic sense of 421 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: Ukraine as an important center of civilization that makes it 422 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 1: more difficult for them to bow to control from Moscow. 423 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 2: But the President of Ukraine and the President of Russia 424 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 2: are named after Grand Prince Volodimmer of Kiev Vladimir. When 425 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 2: Vladimir ruled, Moscow did not exist. One hundred years after Herold, 426 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:15,919 Speaker 2: Moscular did not exist. To Wander, the hearths of the 427 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:21,200 Speaker 2: Heralds could not exist. And to the Ukrainians, the Russians 428 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,560 Speaker 2: claiming the heritage their roots in the ki Rus, which 429 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,400 Speaker 2: was not Russia, but the Rus is misappropriation. I mean 430 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,639 Speaker 2: what they say is that, you know, we had the 431 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 2: state in Ukraine, in Kiev. It was a great state, 432 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 2: and then you know, many centuries later, the princes in Moscow, 433 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,719 Speaker 2: who only rose to power because they were collecting taxes 434 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 2: for the Mongols. This was the historical reason for the 435 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 2: rise of the Moscow Kingdom, decided to appropriate our history 436 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 2: and declare themselves to be the heirs to the rules. 437 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,240 Speaker 2: And that is really Russia's foundational myth, because if you 438 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:56,679 Speaker 2: strip away that past, then the Russian sense of identity 439 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 2: really collapses, which is why the existence of Ukraine is 440 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 2: an independent country. Kiv being the capital of a different 441 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:08,120 Speaker 2: country is really a threat to Russian identity, and which 442 00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 2: is why it's so hard not just for Putin but 443 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,200 Speaker 2: the great many Russians to accept the idea that Ukraine 444 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 2: is a different country. The Kiv rust is a history 445 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,160 Speaker 2: of a different country, and Prince Vladimur was the Prince 446 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 2: of Kiev, not the Prince of Moscow. 447 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,639 Speaker 1: It seems to me that in that sense, the likelihood 448 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:30,960 Speaker 1: of Ukrainian nationalism caving and deciding to accept the Russians 449 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,159 Speaker 1: is very tiny. That there's a deep resistance and a 450 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,159 Speaker 1: deep sense of identity, not both because they want to 451 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,359 Speaker 1: be free, but also because they want to be Ukrainian. 452 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, and I think it's very interesting how the 453 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:48,880 Speaker 2: Ukrainian identity changed over the last half a century of century, 454 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 2: and that's really the reason why why Ukraine has been 455 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:56,159 Speaker 2: able to be so resilient and to resist. Ukrainian nationalism 456 00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 2: back in the nineteen thirties nineteen forties, like most other 457 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 2: national in Europe, was pretty dark. It was very exclusive, 458 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 2: anti Semitic. Quite often. You know, there was a lot 459 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:10,159 Speaker 2: of Ukrainian collaboration with the Nazis, as there was you 460 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 2: know in the Botic States and many other countries in 461 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 2: Europe and France, and I know Wesley in Russia too. 462 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:17,200 Speaker 2: I mean, there was an entire Russian division, Nazi division. 463 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 2: It's all changed in the seventies and the eighties when 464 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 2: the Ukrainian dissidents were in the same camps in Siberia 465 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 2: as the Jewish Refuseniks, as the Baltic colleagues, as the Russians, 466 00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 2: and the idea was when Ukraine was born as an 467 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,360 Speaker 2: independent state, it was the foundational idea is that it's 468 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,240 Speaker 2: a very American idea, So of everyone in this country 469 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 2: is a Ukrainian as long as you want to work 470 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,880 Speaker 2: for Ukraine for the well being of your fellow Ukrainians. 471 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 2: And that's why Ukraine now could have a president who 472 00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 2: happens to be Jewish, the Minister of Defense who happens 473 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 2: to be Muslim, the head of the military who happens 474 00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 2: to be born in Russia, General Serski, and nobody cares 475 00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 2: about that because it's not about blood anymore. It's not 476 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,119 Speaker 2: about which, It is not about what church you go 477 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 2: to or synagogue or mosque. It's about serving Ukraine, which 478 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 2: is I think very unique among European nationalisms that are 479 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:10,879 Speaker 2: all about blood and soil. 480 00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 1: Well, as you said, it's a little bit like the 481 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 1: American model that you get to be Ukrainian if you 482 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,199 Speaker 1: declare you are, and you get to be American if 483 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 1: you declare your Their absorbent nationalisms rather than exclusive nationalisms. 484 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: Before we get to the vital importance of getting the 485 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 1: next round of aid, the one thing that most bothered 486 00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 1: me about Biden's response, which was dramatically better than Obama's, 487 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 1: was they kept having this fear that if they sent 488 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,880 Speaker 1: modern equipment that would trigger Putin to go nuclear, and 489 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 1: in a sense, the Biden administration kept locking its own hands. 490 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 1: My guess is, if we had sent everything we've sent 491 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 1: since then, in the first three months. The effect would 492 00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 1: have been electric and changing the whole dynamic of the war. 493 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 1: But we kept convincing ourselves that if we actually enabled 494 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 1: Ukraine to win decisively, that Putin's balance point would be 495 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: to go nuclear. What's your estimate of the danger of 496 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,920 Speaker 1: Putin actually using nuclear weapons. 497 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,480 Speaker 2: I think the bluff has been called over time, and 498 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 2: it turned out to be just bluff. It was called 499 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 2: by Ukrainians as well, because at some point when Ukraine 500 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 2: was advancing in September twenty twenty two, Putting declared all 501 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 2: those areas to be part of Russia and said, now 502 00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 2: this is Russia and we will use all our means 503 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 2: to defend them, money further, you know, and we have 504 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,120 Speaker 2: nuclear weapons. Nukrainans went further into the city of Harassan, 505 00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,560 Speaker 2: to the city of Leman, and he didn't do anything. 506 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 2: So I think this self imposed self deterrence, as it's 507 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:51,120 Speaker 2: called basically, you know, it was really really unnecessary and 508 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 2: it really undermined then to our effort. And if we look, 509 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 2: you know, people will say, okay, you know, the US 510 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,560 Speaker 2: gave Ukraine a lot of stuff, and that's true, tens 511 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 2: and tens tens of billions of dollars of weapons and 512 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 2: equipment over time. But if you talk to Ukrainian commanders 513 00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 2: that would tell you, Okay, well there is a fire 514 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 2: and you need the bucket of water to extinguish the fire. 515 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 2: If you give us this bucket of water right away, 516 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 2: we can extinguish it. But what we got from the 517 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 2: US was a lot of teacups over the course of 518 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:23,200 Speaker 2: two years. There was never this critical mass, and whenever 519 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 2: a new system was introduced, it was introduced to its 520 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 2: limited numbers, and by the time numbers increased, the Russian 521 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 2: clordy would find a way of counteracting it. 522 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 1: So, given though we are now where we are, how 523 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: much damage has been done over the last three months 524 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 1: by American political infighting and inability to pass a to 525 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:45,680 Speaker 1: Ukraine in a timely. 526 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,480 Speaker 2: Way Russia, if you look at the map, the map 527 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 2: has not changed dramatically. Russia took the city of Zifka, 528 00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 2: which is a city of about thirty thousand people. It 529 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 2: is the first city it did take since May last year, 530 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:03,640 Speaker 2: and lost a lot of people. Russian estimates are sixteen 531 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 2: thousand people died for the sixteen thousand Russian soldiers. Ukraine 532 00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 2: also sustaining very heavy losses. Every day of these delays 533 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,320 Speaker 2: is measured in hundreds of lives of Ukrainian soldiers that 534 00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:21,160 Speaker 2: they killed injured, And WO don't know whether Russia will 535 00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,320 Speaker 2: be able at some point in the coming months to 536 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 2: assemble its critical mass to punch through the Ukrainian front 537 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 2: lines and to get dramatically more ground. So the Europeans 538 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 2: have stepped in partially. The capacity is limited, but they're 539 00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,320 Speaker 2: doing a lot more than they used to. But there 540 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 2: are a lot of things that only the US can provide, 541 00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,720 Speaker 2: such as interceptress for the patriots. And Russia is taking 542 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:48,600 Speaker 2: advantage of this disruption in supply, lobbing missiles into Ukrainian 543 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 2: cities every day, causing casualties, destroying the Ukrainian power infrastructure, 544 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 2: and destroying its military capacity. 545 00:31:56,240 --> 00:32:01,320 Speaker 1: Whatever you think about Ukraine per se allowing Putin to 546 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 1: win and as a result, project power into Central Europe 547 00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 1: and almost certainly I think try to reabsorb the Three 548 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 1: Baldage States. This is a future that we cannot allow 549 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:18,080 Speaker 1: to happen. That Putin's victory would be a catastrophe for 550 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 1: everything that the Western world has tried to achieve since 551 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:23,360 Speaker 1: the late nineteen thirties. 552 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 2: Absolutely, and not just in Europe. I would say China 553 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 2: is watching very carefully what's happening in Ukraine. The people 554 00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 2: of Taiwan are watching very carefree. The people in Taiwan 555 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 2: will have to make up their mind one day, are 556 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 2: going to resist the Chinese or are going to just 557 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 2: yield and surrender. And if they see the US walking 558 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 2: away from Ukraine for no particular reason, you know, the 559 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:49,880 Speaker 2: Americans are dying. The US economy is not impacted by 560 00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine, I like the Europeans, and the 561 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 2: Europeans had to make sacrifices. They had to get rid 562 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,280 Speaker 2: of their dependent on cheap Russian gas that fuel the 563 00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 2: German economy. The US didn'habted to that independent Russians. 564 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 1: Hopefully in the next two or three weeks this will 565 00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 1: be solved and the money will start to flow again. 566 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 1: And I think there are a lot of people trying 567 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: to make that happen, including Speaker Johnson, who is taking 568 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,080 Speaker 1: some real risks in his own conference. Would you talk 569 00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 1: a little bit about your Wall Street Journal colleague, Heavin Kershkovitz, 570 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 1: who's been detained in Russia for a year now, and 571 00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,760 Speaker 1: also the whole challenge of the fact that they're over 572 00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 1: five hundred and twenty reporters locked up around the world. 573 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 1: I mean, just focusing on locking up reporters strikes me 574 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,280 Speaker 1: as an enormous threat to the whole free world. 575 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 2: Well, you know, detators are afraid of truth, they're afraid 576 00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 2: of information. They are friend people piercing the bubble of propernanda. 577 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:50,000 Speaker 2: And that is one of the reasons why Russian Putin 578 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:54,920 Speaker 2: has gone after Evan, because Evan was there writing stories 579 00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,479 Speaker 2: that explain what's really happening in Russia. He was doing 580 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:02,360 Speaker 2: his job as a journalist, doing great job, and that 581 00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,560 Speaker 2: did not please the regime there. And we have seen 582 00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,640 Speaker 2: other authoritary regimes clapping down the press, not necessarily by 583 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,040 Speaker 2: detaining journalis, but also by the enang visas expelling them. 584 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,279 Speaker 2: We've seen in China it's very hard to work in 585 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 2: China as well. Any forty journals going to Russia is 586 00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:20,480 Speaker 2: playing Russian or Electorate. 587 00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 1: Now. It's pretty sobering, and of course our prayers are 588 00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,239 Speaker 1: with Evan and his family and we hope that we 589 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,240 Speaker 1: can get him released herself. I want to thank you 590 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 1: for joining me your new book, Our Enemies will Vanish, 591 00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 1: the Russian invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence is available 592 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 1: now on Amazon and in bookstores everywhere. I encourage everyone 593 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: who's concerned not just about Ukraine, but about the peace 594 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 1: of the West and the survival of our values and 595 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,760 Speaker 1: the necessity of defeating Russia and pick up a copy. 596 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,879 Speaker 1: And you can follow our slaves reporting with the Wall 597 00:34:55,920 --> 00:35:00,560 Speaker 1: Street Journal at WSJ dot com. But thank you very. 598 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,560 Speaker 2: Much for being with us, Thank you so much for 599 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 2: having me. 600 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,879 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Jarislov Truffemoff. You can get 601 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: a link to buy his new book, Our Enemies Will Vanish, 602 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:17,399 Speaker 1: the Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence on our 603 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:21,319 Speaker 1: show page at newtsworld dot com. Newsworld is produced by 604 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 1: Gingrish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsey Sloan. 605 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show 606 00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:35,080 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team 607 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,600 Speaker 1: at Gingrish three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I 608 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us 609 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,320 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 610 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,440 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 611 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,720 Speaker 1: newts World can sign up for my three free weekly 612 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 1: columns at gingrishtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. 613 00:35:56,360 --> 00:36:00,880 Speaker 1: This is Newtsworld.