1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcasts PA. All Right, 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: here we go. 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 2: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five 4 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 2: fifty and the kick is black Covers Football Stunned. 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. 6 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,800 Speaker 2: Please stumble and bumble the latter. 7 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: Turn a tatter on the eadside. 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 3: Gu the lad. 9 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: Table off the day of the night. 10 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: My god, it's not the size of the dog in 11 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: the fight, it's the size of the fight in the 12 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 2: all Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcasts, presented 13 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: by Drafting Sportsbook. This is the five Deep Dive. I'm 14 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 2: Mike Calvary's joined by my Action Network co host Duck Listen. 15 00:00:58,040 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: Last week we took it on the chin. There's no 16 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 2: way around it. For those who were blasting us, well, 17 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 2: I mean, that's what we sign up for. We had 18 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 2: a hot start to the season. We felt that love. 19 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: We had no feel for the games. Last week. We 20 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,000 Speaker 2: got to take that negativity as it comes. Like Aldo 21 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 2: Rain said, and inglorious bastards. I've been chewed out before. 22 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 2: It's fine. I can take it. I'll tell you one 23 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 2: thing though. Duck and I were back in the trenches 24 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,919 Speaker 2: looking for angles this week, looking for any advantage, texting 25 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 2: each other back and forth. I got so deep into it. 26 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: I was looking at a defensive coordinators high school tape 27 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: to see how he was matching up against an option offense. 28 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 2: So we really took all of that nervous energy, that 29 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 2: negativity and turning it towards productivity this week. So I'm 30 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 2: hoping that we're just coming with winners through our best bets, 31 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 2: through our two minute drill, even the four minute offense 32 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 2: that Duck does every week. Hopefully we can give out 33 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 2: a lot of lucrative and profitable angles for this week. 34 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 2: All right, Duck, With that, enough of the recount from 35 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 2: last week, I want to move on fresh start. Let's 36 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 2: sound off on something that either had your chili running 37 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 2: hot positively or negatively from week four. Where did you land? 38 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: Yeah? 39 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 3: I mean, it's so strange to see these coaches that 40 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 3: are paid millions of dollars that seemingly just continue to 41 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 3: screw up and mismanage in game situations. The most egregious 42 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 3: that I saw last week was Colorado State and Jane Norvel. 43 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,119 Speaker 3: It was unreal. Their offense could not move the ball 44 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,959 Speaker 3: for three quarters. They stuck with Braden Fowler Nickelosi at quarterback. 45 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 3: They finally pulled the plug and they brought in Jackson Broussard. 46 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 3: He leads the team down the field to tie the 47 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 3: game with fifteen seconds to go. They line up to 48 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 3: kick the extra point. The extra point was good. There 49 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 3: was a flag for off sides on the extra point, 50 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 3: so jay Norvel takes the points off the board at 51 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:51,919 Speaker 3: home decides to go for two. He doesn't leave Brussard, 52 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 3: the hot hand in there, who had led the team 53 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: to two touchdown scoring drives in the fourth quarter. They 54 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 3: run the two point conversion with Taj Bullock, who's a 55 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 3: running quarter transfer from Akron and had not completed a 56 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 3: pass all season. So you think, okay, great, they're going 57 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 3: to line up in power. They're going to run it 58 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,239 Speaker 3: in there with Bullock. They'll win the game on the 59 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: two point. Now, they call roll out waggle to the 60 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 3: right and he throws a pass. Of course, it was 61 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 3: not completed and they lose the game by one point. 62 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 3: It was just really stunning to see that sort of 63 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 3: decision in personnel, taking the points off the board at home, 64 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 3: not leaving the hot handed quarterback in there, and he's 65 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 3: taken a lot of flak on social media from ram 66 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 3: faithful and deservedly so. It was just such bad situational coaching, 67 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 3: some of the worst I've seen in a long time. 68 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 2: So you mentioned right there off the bat, they were 69 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 2: at home. Are you always a believer when you're at 70 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: home go to overtime? You know, at least get the 71 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 2: juice from the home crowd and play to continue the game, 72 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 2: as opposed to winning right there, whereas you're on the road, 73 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 2: you want to go ahead and strike old Iron's hot 74 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 2: and potentially win with a walk off. Is that kind 75 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 2: of where you land there or do you have a 76 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 2: bigger issue with the play call. Obviously, being at the 77 00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 2: one yard line with a run game and a running 78 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 2: quarterback in there, you were expecting them to try to 79 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 2: power it home. 80 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 3: I didn't mind the decision to go for it, but 81 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 3: to bring in a third string quarterback who hadn't completed 82 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 3: a pass all season and then you call a pass 83 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 3: play for him instead of leaving the hot hand in there, 84 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 3: I mean, Brusard was the call. You leave Brusard in 85 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 3: there and let him make the decision, And I just 86 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 3: think he was trying to be cute and outthink the 87 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,720 Speaker 3: room and it just completely backfired. The play looked terrible, 88 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 3: It never had a chance. It was just such mismanagement 89 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 3: of a great situation. I would have gone for it 90 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 3: as well, but I would not have run that player, 91 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 3: that personnel. 92 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:37,880 Speaker 2: For my sounding off segment here, I'm going to keep 93 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 2: it positive. We're discovering things about these coaches all throughout 94 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: the year. There's huge roster turnover, the coaching carousel, everything else. 95 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 2: But we got two cover kings emerging here in the 96 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 2: G five. It's Eddie George and Casey Keeler. Eddie George 97 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,479 Speaker 2: and his bowling Green Falcons scored not one but two 98 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,720 Speaker 2: fourth quarter touchdowns against Louisville to secure a backdoor cover 99 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 2: and then once he had it inside the number, I 100 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 2: mean they're down twenty three point to sign for an 101 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 2: onside kick, right, Nah, now we're good. Let's just get 102 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 2: out of here. We'll kick it deep and allow Lovel 103 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 2: to run the clock out. So that's clearly a coach 104 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,160 Speaker 2: that has his eye on what that closing number is, 105 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 2: or at least is you know, keeping that in mind 106 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 2: at some point, because why are you putting your foot 107 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 2: on the accelerator but then giving up when you're still 108 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 2: you know, within three scores to get the ball back. 109 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 2: Who knows what could happen on the other side of 110 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 2: a Casey keeler Man talk about a gambling divisive moment 111 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 2: where either you were on the Temple side like I was, 112 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:28,799 Speaker 2: or you're on the Georgia Tech side and you're pulling 113 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 2: your hair out. He called not one, but two timeouts 114 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 2: in the final minute, down thirty one with a backup 115 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 2: quarterback like everything was screaming, all right, they're just gonna 116 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 2: put up the white flag. They end up throwing a 117 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 2: touchdown pass with three seconds left to secure the cover. 118 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:45,359 Speaker 2: And then, just to add a little bit of added 119 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 2: stress to this a crazy ending from a gambling perspective, 120 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 2: they give up a sixty one yard run that could 121 00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 2: have been a touchdown. There was a holding flag. It 122 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: was declined. Like just a cardiac event of a football 123 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:59,160 Speaker 2: game down the stretch there. But Casey Keeller clearly cares 124 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:02,320 Speaker 2: about the gamblers who are putting their hard earned money 125 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 2: behind the owls. So just keep that in mind. Some 126 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,200 Speaker 2: of these coaches they don't care when there's certain games 127 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: that get out of reach. They just kind of throw 128 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 2: in their backups and say we're on to next week, 129 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 2: and there's other ones that go down swinging, use all 130 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 2: their timeouts, they're pushing the ball downfield. Just somebody to 131 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 2: consider Eddie George and Case Keeler should be on that 132 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 2: list of teams and coaches that you want to back. Now, 133 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 2: before we get into our best bets, there's a quick 134 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 2: and easy way for you to tail us. First. Sign 135 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 2: up for Action Pro. You'll get instant notifications when Action 136 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 2: Network experts track a bet, whether that's me, Duck Stucky, 137 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 2: Colin Wilson. You're going to get those right away at 138 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 2: the best prices. Plus, you can access our pro projections 139 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 2: powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team, and 140 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 2: a ton of other benefits. To celebrate football's return, we're 141 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,359 Speaker 2: still here in the month of September. We've got a 142 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 2: special offer, but you have to act now. Go to 143 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: actionnetwork dot com slash pro and get twenty dollars off 144 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 2: the annual price with the promo code BBOC twenty. So 145 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,479 Speaker 2: don't miss out on the best bets at the best 146 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 2: prices this fall. Visit actionnetwork dot com slash pro and 147 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 2: use promo code BBOC twenty to get twenty dollars off 148 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 2: a season of Action Pro. Another way you can tell 149 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 2: some of the bets that we are going to discuss 150 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,279 Speaker 2: in this very episode is look for the quick slip 151 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 2: links in the podcast and video descriptions, or visit actionnetwork 152 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 2: dot com slash bet. Now on to the best bets 153 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 2: here in week five, I'm going to see you up first. 154 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:23,679 Speaker 2: Duck Toledo Leiden Egg. Not anything new for Jason Kandal. 155 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 2: He loves doing that as a favorite. But usually they 156 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 2: learn from those mistakes and they bounce back. And here 157 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 2: we are in MAC play. They're drawing one of the 158 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 2: worst teams in the country in Akron. They're laying just 159 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 2: around depending on the number that you get, either twenty 160 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 2: and a half, twenty one, twenty one and a half. 161 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 2: That's how big the Rockets are. Favorite at home. Walk 162 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 2: me through this play in the Mid American Conference. 163 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of things situationally, I like about 164 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 3: Toledo this weekend. First thing we've seen is we've seen 165 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:54,320 Speaker 3: Akron receive a boost and offensive production the last couple 166 00:07:54,400 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 3: of weeks. While facing two very very poor coverage and 167 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: tackling defenses in Decane and UAB. The Zips could not 168 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 3: run the football with explosivity or effectiveness in their first 169 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 3: couple of games against FBS competition this season, and they 170 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 3: will not run it here, Toledo only giving up sixty 171 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 3: two yards per game on the ground and one point 172 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 3: nine yards per carrey rushing the last three weeks. Akron 173 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 3: has also received great play in recent games for Ben 174 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 3: Finley in the pass game, but again they face significantly 175 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 3: weaker secondaries in UAB and Ducaine. Toledo has a strong 176 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 3: secondary with a top forty coverage grade per PFF. Toledo 177 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 3: is second nationally in pass down EPA per play. Akron 178 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 3: dead last one hundred and thirty six offensively in that 179 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:44,559 Speaker 3: Toledo thirty second nationally in pass play success rate. Defensively, 180 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 3: Akron is one hundred and thirty six. Akron's also one 181 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 3: hundred and thirty third nationally in pass play explosiveness achieved. 182 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 3: They will have very little success throwing their way out 183 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 3: of bad situations when they can't run the ball with 184 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 3: any consistency or regularity. Toledo also able to really run 185 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 3: the ball well and slow burn Akron on the ground 186 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 3: throughout this game. The Akron front seven is really going 187 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 3: to be in some major trouble here. We already saw 188 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 3: Jason Kandle have his annual loss as a double digit fave. 189 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,960 Speaker 3: They got that out of the way last week in 190 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 3: a conference road game against Western Michigan. All of the 191 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,680 Speaker 3: Toledo Rocket preseason goals are still out in front of them, 192 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,680 Speaker 3: but there's no margin for error, and now Toledo is 193 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 3: playing with revenge off of an embarrassing loss to Akron 194 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 3: last season. You saw Toledo last week really in complete 195 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 3: control of that Western Michigan game until about midway through 196 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. They were up thirteen to nothing and cruising, 197 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 3: and they let it slip away. I think Toledo and 198 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,959 Speaker 3: the Rockets light the fuse this weekend and they leave 199 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 3: no doubt they really go for the jugular against Akron, 200 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 3: who's going to be just completely up against it. From 201 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 3: a mis match perspective, I think we see the a 202 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 3: offense regress back to what they were the first couple 203 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,719 Speaker 3: of weeks of the season, which is very little productivity, 204 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 3: inability to move the football, in effectiveness to convert third 205 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 3: down or get the ball into the red zone. Toledo 206 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 3: is just going to wax this team at home. I 207 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 3: have no issue lay in the three touchdowns. 208 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 2: And it's not just Jason Candle either. It's also the 209 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 2: jeckal and Hyde nature of Tucker Gleason when he really 210 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 2: brings it. This team has the balance, they have explosiveness 211 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 2: on the outside, and there's other games where not only 212 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 2: is he a shell of himself, but you can also 213 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 2: see the coaching staff kind of protecting him, really limiting 214 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,319 Speaker 2: his attempts, having a lot of underneath stuff, So it 215 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: could be boom or bust. I could see this being 216 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 2: a potential alternate play as well. I think if all 217 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 2: goes right for this rocket offense, they could win going 218 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 2: away by four plus touchdowns. So just something to consider there, 219 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 2: all right, best bet for me, Rice and Navy under 220 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 2: forty six. I had this one circled from the summer. 221 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 2: My notes read simply anything over forty play the under here. 222 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 2: So clearly in the mid forties, it's a play on 223 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 2: the under at any one of those prices. Because this 224 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 2: is a Service Academy total. When you look at these 225 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,200 Speaker 2: two teams, they both run plays at bottom ten tempos 226 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 2: in terms of seconds between plays in the entire country. 227 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 2: They're also first and third in rush percentage in terms 228 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,480 Speaker 2: of how many plays that they're calling that are pure 229 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 2: rush plays, not even RPOs. That's over eighty percent for 230 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 2: both the Midshipman and the Owls. So a slow pace 231 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 2: plus a running clock means that we could see likely 232 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,440 Speaker 2: fewer than one hundred and thirty total plays here. So 233 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 2: it just comes down to will there be explosives or not. 234 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 2: Rice is dead last in explosiveness at the FBS level 235 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:33,959 Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty six out of one hundred and 236 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: thirty six teams. Navy is markedly better in that department, 237 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 2: but still only seventy third in explosiveness, not quite as 238 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 2: good as they were at the beginning of last season. 239 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 2: The question here is can Rice play discipline fundamentally sound 240 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 2: defense and tackle. The Owls are fortieth in tackling, which 241 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 2: is a really good indicator in my opinion. And one 242 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 2: little additional nugget here I mentioned at the top DC 243 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 2: John k Use, a high school coaching legend in Texas. 244 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 2: He won four state titles at North Shore in the 245 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 2: Houston area, And when you coach at that level, when 246 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 2: you're playing against all kinds of different offenses, really Texas 247 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 2: high school football is the laboratory for football in general, 248 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 2: in not only the state Texas, but kind of the country. 249 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 2: You saw spread offenses come out of there, a lot 250 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,559 Speaker 2: of option offenses as well. You have to be able 251 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 2: to defend so many different looks throughout an entire season. 252 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 2: And one of the teams that he had to go 253 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 2: through to win a couple of those state titles was Duncanville, 254 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 2: a high school powerhouse that ran a nasty power option 255 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 2: offense with lots of quarterback runs. A lot of the 256 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 2: multiple sets that they're working with are very similar to 257 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: when you look at Delaware from a formational standpoint. Excuse me, 258 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 2: Navy on a weekly basis, that Delaware wing T offense 259 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 2: the millennial T offense under Drew Chronick. They're going to 260 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,480 Speaker 2: give you different things to prepare for. I think John 261 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 2: k is sneaky the perfect guy to kind of get 262 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,679 Speaker 2: Rice in the right headspace for this game. So I'm 263 00:12:57,679 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 2: going to go under the forty six. It's my favorite 264 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,199 Speaker 2: play here in Week five. It's a game that I 265 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 2: think could be ground to a halt. We've seen Rice 266 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 2: kind of be stuck in the mud offensively. I wouldn't 267 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 2: be shocked if they had multiple zero point quarters against 268 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 2: this Navy defense. There's just not a whole lot that 269 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 2: scares me other than the natural. Will there be a 270 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,400 Speaker 2: defensive or special teams touchdown to throw a monkey wrench 271 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 2: into things. But this is my play to get myself 272 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,079 Speaker 2: back on track here. As I said, hot start to 273 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 2: the season, it's not been so great the last two weeks. 274 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 2: I want to go back to the bread and butter 275 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 2: and really focus on where my eyes were trained in 276 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 2: the summer, in the preseason, where I thought there would 277 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 2: be situations strategic advantages at certain numbers. This is one 278 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,199 Speaker 2: of them. What do you think about under between these 279 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:39,840 Speaker 2: two option offenses, We're. 280 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 3: Going to see a ton of running clock. We're going 281 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 3: to see run heavy on both sides. I project that 282 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 3: each of these teams are going to run sixty total plays, 283 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 3: and so it just comes down to preventing the explosivity 284 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 3: and avoiding the special teams or the defensive touchdown. But 285 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 3: per second play, EPA, per play, all of the math 286 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 3: works out to this should be a total that should 287 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 3: finish around I don't think that Rice will have a 288 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 3: tremendous amount of success here. Offensively, could be a real 289 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 3: struggle for them, But the only hope is that maybe 290 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 3: they have to get down the field into the red zone, 291 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 3: and we see a decision for them to have to 292 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 3: go for it, which then can create a long field 293 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,959 Speaker 3: for Navy the other way. I think this game will 294 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 3: play to nine possessions each, and so you're looking at 295 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 3: trying to secure four or five stops on each side 296 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 3: and limit the opposing offenses to a couple of field 297 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 3: goal attempts each. I think we'll have enough to get 298 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 3: it done here. I think Rice will be really up 299 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 3: against it, trying to line up against the middies who 300 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 3: have at least an idea and a baseline for what 301 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 3: they want to do and some familiarity with the principles. 302 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 3: And so if as long as Rice can hang in 303 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 3: there in the trenches and just limit some of the explosivity, 304 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 3: specifically from Navy in the past apartment, if they don't 305 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 3: get fooled at the pass game, then I think we'll 306 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 3: be okay here with the under. 307 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 2: Now you're looking to the Mountain West for your second 308 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 2: best bets. The Brotherhood Timmy Chang and his Fighting Rainbows 309 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 2: travel into the main land to take on Air Force. 310 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 2: I got to say right away, I'm going to give 311 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 2: you credit because I liked Air force moneyline. I thought 312 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: the number. Maybe I'm just a little bit skittish after 313 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 2: a cold streak here. I want to get a win 314 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 2: on the board, But I was leaning that way from 315 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 2: the get go. Tell me why you're fine with this 316 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 2: scaling all the way up to the edge of a 317 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 2: full touchdown. Do you think it's just a schematic bad 318 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 2: matchup or is it the travel element. Chang has been 319 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 2: horrific on the road as the head coach at why 320 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 2: has not been able to get them rowing in the 321 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 2: right direction. Obviously he's trying different things, but the looks 322 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 2: of it is that they're not going to be able 323 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 2: to get over the hump. Considering they and an opportunity 324 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 2: to grab a win in a game that they were 325 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 2: an underdog in against Fresno. They get the defensive touchdown, 326 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,080 Speaker 2: they get all these things working in their favor, but 327 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 2: the offense is just not clicking. I don't know if 328 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 2: it's you can blame Alohado being banged up or what, 329 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 2: but at this point it's hard to have a lot 330 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 2: of faith in them scoring more than seventeen to twenty 331 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 2: points in this game, and against a reborn air Force 332 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 2: offense that looks like they put the luggish, underwhelming twenty 333 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 2: twenty four in their rear view mirror. It looks like 334 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 2: they could run through this Rainbow Warrior defense. 335 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, and we saw it last week. Even in Alahado's return. 336 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 3: The offense just looked so jerky at home four point 337 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 3: one six yards per play, which was their worst output 338 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 3: in a home game this season. Alohado through forty seven passes, 339 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 3: completed twenty eight of them for two hundred and nineteen yards, 340 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 3: one touchdown, three interceptions. We're five games in now and 341 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 3: Hawaii is averaging just three point three yards per Carrie 342 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 3: ninety six rushing yards per game, and they have not 343 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 3: rushed for a touchdown this season. And they are still, 344 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 3: to their credit, adhering to trying to sprinkle in the run. 345 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 3: But when the pass game is not a threat to 346 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 3: stretch the defense vertically, you're just going to have zero 347 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 3: success on the ground. Now we get road Hawaii with 348 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 3: Micah Alijado still banged up. You saw it at the 349 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 3: end of the Fresno game if you stayed up till 350 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:57,960 Speaker 3: three thirty in the morning Eastern Time, like I did, 351 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 3: and he was limping. He is just not himself and 352 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 3: he looked very very average. It was no flash in 353 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,240 Speaker 3: the pan. It was no lightning in a bottle that 354 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:10,719 Speaker 3: we had seen from ala Ato, and really his attitude 355 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 3: and his demeanor in his body language just looked defeated. 356 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 3: So I don't want that for him, but he is 357 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 3: still hurt and it was a noticeable limp. I don't 358 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 3: have confidence at this point in Hawaii's defensive front to 359 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 3: really stop the scheme. And I think air Force has 360 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:31,120 Speaker 3: really finally figured some things out with their quarterback, as 361 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,199 Speaker 3: the offense against Boise was free flowing and moved it 362 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 3: really well when Liam Zarka was at the helm, so 363 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 3: I think we're going to see more Liam Zarka this week. 364 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 3: A couple other things, air Force is first nationally in 365 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 3: rush play success rate and in standard down success. Hawaii 366 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 3: is just eighty sixth and ninety fourth, respectively in those 367 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:54,360 Speaker 3: defensive categories. Air Force is thirteenth in offensive EPA per 368 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 3: play in eighth in offensive finishing drives. So when they 369 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 3: get down around the red area in priors that you 370 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 3: would have to settle for field goals, but they're punching 371 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 3: it in for six quite often this season, which really 372 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 3: bodes well for covering the spread. And Hawaii just seventy 373 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 3: seventh nationally in both defensive EPA per play and defensive 374 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:16,239 Speaker 3: finishing drives. So the matchup itself, I think Hawaii is 375 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 3: just going to start to wear down and through the 376 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 3: rest of the schedule. Hawaii is a team I'm looking 377 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 3: to fait. I don't think they're very talented. They've got 378 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 3: a couple of nice receivers, a couple of them are 379 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 3: banged up, but this is overall just a bad matchup. 380 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 3: It's a bad scheduling spot for Hawaii on the road. 381 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 3: Hawaii is playing their sixth straight week and have yet 382 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 3: to have the bye week. I think this is a 383 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 3: team that'll really potentially benefit from having the buye, but 384 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 3: their sucking wind and they are just out of gas. 385 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 3: This is a spot I had identified in the summer 386 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 3: as a place to fade Hawaii when they go play 387 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 3: at Elevation sixth week in air Force now really needs 388 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 3: a big win to get their season and their conference 389 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 3: schedule back on track. Now, after dropping the first two 390 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:59,120 Speaker 3: must win backs against the Wall for the Flyboys, I'm 391 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 3: back in Air Force. Anything under a touchdown, all right. 392 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,080 Speaker 2: I'm going to close out our best Bet segment with 393 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 2: an over between Memphis and FAU. It's in that sixty 394 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 2: one and a half. I'm going to go over that 395 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,200 Speaker 2: number because of the pace and pace cuts both ways, 396 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,480 Speaker 2: Snail's pace for the midshipman and the Owls in my 397 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 2: first best bet and now a lightning pace from FAU. 398 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: The Owls snap it every eighteen point seven seconds. No 399 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 2: other program in the country snaps it faster. No one's 400 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 2: even under twenty seconds other than FAU. Memphis is far 401 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 2: more methodical on the other side of the ball. But 402 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,320 Speaker 2: this handicap really comes down to the fact that fau's 403 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 2: defense is garbage. There one hundred and eighth inexplosives allow 404 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 2: their eighty third and havoc, and that's after facing a 405 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,199 Speaker 2: true freshman in his very first career start and a 406 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 2: middling FCS team. Their numbers should be better if they 407 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 2: had real signs of life. But on defense there was 408 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 2: too many new faces, there's too many issues, and they 409 00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 2: just gave up thirty eight points to FIU, and FIU 410 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:51,800 Speaker 2: scored those thirty eight points, by the way, in the 411 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 2: first forty minutes of that game, before going in a shell, 412 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 2: keeping a vanilla, just trying to run out the clock 413 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 2: in the Shoe La Bowl. So that is a really 414 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,679 Speaker 2: bad sign for where things are going to head in 415 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 2: the AAC for FAU, because there are some offenses that 416 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 2: are just going to drop a bomb on their head 417 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 2: and Memphis is one of them. The Memphis running game 418 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,680 Speaker 2: is going to eat in this game. Whoever is running 419 00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 2: the ball, whether it's QB runs or their backfield with 420 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 2: Sun Smith and Greg DeRosier, just they're gonna find green grass, 421 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 2: they're going to find room to rome, and they're going 422 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 2: to hit big plays. They just gave Arkansas's defense an 423 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 2: SEC run defense. I understand that they're at the bottom 424 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 2: of the SEC in terms of what they do in 425 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 2: the box, but they ran for two hundred and ninety 426 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 2: yards seven yards per carry in that game. FAU gave 427 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 2: up two hundred and twenty four yards in the ground 428 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:36,719 Speaker 2: to FIU in the Shoe La Bowl. Key John Owens 429 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 2: ran wild in that one. It's hard to see them 430 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,199 Speaker 2: doing anything schematically that's going to slow down this Tigers 431 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 2: rushing attack. And then defensively for Memphis, this has let 432 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 2: down at least in the first half. Written all over it. 433 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 2: FAU got to reset after a rocky starts the Kittley era, 434 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 2: and maybe they're going to have some new wrinkles be 435 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 2: able to attack Memphis in different ways. Whereas Memphis is 436 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 2: coming off a transformational win, all of a sudden, they're 437 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:00,919 Speaker 2: at the front of the college football playoff line, at 438 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 2: least among the G five teams. They're getting all the 439 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 2: pats in the back. It was also an emotional roller 440 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 2: coaster that game against Arkansas. So all of this, I 441 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,400 Speaker 2: think it's just going to come down to the opportunity 442 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:16,399 Speaker 2: for FAU to make a big step forward in terms 443 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 2: of what they've done, and really it just comes down 444 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 2: to finishing drives because they've moved the football this year. 445 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 2: They're twenty eighth in total offense, but they've turned it 446 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 2: over a ton nine turnovers in three games. No team 447 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,399 Speaker 2: in the country has a higher giveaway rate than they do. 448 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:30,119 Speaker 2: And when you look at what they've done in the 449 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 2: red zone one hundred and thirtieth in red zone, scoring 450 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 2: only six touchdowns and eleven trips in there. If they 451 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 2: shore those things up, even just taking field goals and 452 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:40,680 Speaker 2: not coming up with empty trips, all of a sudden, 453 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 2: this is a different game in terms of the total 454 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,399 Speaker 2: and the opportunity to be played in the seventies. I 455 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,880 Speaker 2: think that's a bi lo spot on the FAU offense. 456 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 2: I think they're going to get into the twenties. I'll 457 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 2: call it Memphis forty one FAU twenty seven. Maybe one 458 00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 2: of those touchdowns is a late garbage time score. What 459 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 2: are your thoughts on this one? The FAU offense. Do 460 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 2: you think it's broken? Do you think the aren't quite there? 461 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,160 Speaker 2: With belt Camp holding the ball too long, being confused? 462 00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 2: I mean, all you have to do is football that 463 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,479 Speaker 2: FIU game, and granted, the FIU secondary is pretty good 464 00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 2: by G five standards, but he was making mistakes with 465 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,159 Speaker 2: the football left and right, left and right. Do you 466 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:15,959 Speaker 2: think he gets that cleaned up and they have an 467 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 2: opportunity to score against a Memphis team that may be 468 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 2: overlooking them a bit. 469 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 3: I definitely think they have a chance to do that 470 00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 3: and clean up some of the mistake. You know, they're 471 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 3: still running an offense now that is unfamiliar to some, 472 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 3: and so you're trying to get all eleven players on 473 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 3: the offense up to speed on exactly what they're trying 474 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 3: to do. And there was going to be some growing 475 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 3: pains with this FAU team. We knew the defense was horrific. Schematically, 476 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 3: when you look at what Memphis wants to do, they're 477 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 3: going to line up in twelve personnel. They're going to 478 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 3: use the big bodied tight ends. They're going to run 479 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,640 Speaker 3: the rock, and they will run it right through Fau 480 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 3: and there's going to be no stopping it, just like 481 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 3: they did against Arkansas. I think defensively for Memphis they 482 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 3: could be in some trouble, though. I think Fau is 483 00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,359 Speaker 3: going to throw it around a ton. You talked at 484 00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 3: the beginning of the program about a couple of coaches 485 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 3: that sign up for sixty minutes, coaches that play to 486 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 3: the buzzer. Well, that's kit Lee, that's Fau. They throw 487 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,240 Speaker 3: every they squeeze every last drop out of the orange. 488 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 3: They're throwing fifty times a game. They're trying to get 489 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,959 Speaker 3: all the passing stats. They're trying to score as much 490 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,920 Speaker 3: as possible, and to their demise, at times, we've seen 491 00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 3: them go for it flippantly on fourth down. That can 492 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,880 Speaker 3: create some short fields. Maybe Memphis punches in a couple cheapies. 493 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 3: I don't know that this game will be particularly close, 494 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 3: but that's probably because Memphis scores fifty one and Fau's 495 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 3: in the twenties, but you look at FAU against this 496 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 3: Memphis secondary. This secondary can be beat. Georgia State threw 497 00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 3: it around for three forty and Arkansas last week threw 498 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 3: it around for three twenty five. Memphis is surrendering six 499 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,440 Speaker 3: point eight yards per pass attempt this season, so they 500 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 3: can certainly be got In the secondary. We'll see Messer 501 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 3: have twelve to fourteen targets his way, He'll have a 502 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,239 Speaker 3: ton of catches, He'll wiggle out of the slot and 503 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 3: have some production there. I think this is one where 504 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 3: you just can't set the total high enough. And again 505 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 3: we talked about this in the sum where FAU overs 506 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 3: are going to be profitable. I'm gonna continue to go 507 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,880 Speaker 3: that way. And I think Memphis will contribute here because 508 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 3: although they won't play exceedingly fast, they will gain so 509 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 3: much in the chunk play department will score quickly. It'll 510 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 3: be four or five play drives rather than nine to 511 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 3: eleven play drives from Memphis, and then FAU will be 512 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 3: playing from behind and we'll see them continue to throw 513 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 3: it around. So I love this. I already have the 514 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 3: over end pocket. I think it's a wonderful play. 515 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: I'm out of time. I mean, I got. 516 00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 2: Come, all right, let's turn out of the four minute offense. 517 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,880 Speaker 2: We're gonna give highlight segments to a former G five hero, 518 00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 2: Diego Pavia. Just they're no longer a cute story in 519 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 2: the SEC. They're no longer kind of, you know, an 520 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 2: outsider trying to ruin a season. They got to start 521 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 2: be taken seriously as an SEC contender because the way 522 00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 2: that they're playing. Not only did they absolutely rough up 523 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 2: South Carolina and basically turn their entire season. Now they're 524 00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,119 Speaker 2: looking like they're going to be a six and six squad, 525 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 2: but then they had the classic letdown spot. I've talked 526 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 2: about it on the last show. You know, there was 527 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,479 Speaker 2: two spots. There was Temple catching twenty four and there 528 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,919 Speaker 2: was Georgia State catching twenty seven and a half. And 529 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 2: them on both of those teams, Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, 530 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:20,919 Speaker 2: was that they would play down and play with their 531 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 2: food a little bit, not necessarily take it seriously. Vanderbilt 532 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 2: took it very seriously. I think they just wait this 533 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 2: just in. They just scored another touchdown against Georgia State. 534 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 2: It was incredible their performance, but now they have another 535 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 2: feisty G five team coming in that's well coached by 536 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 2: Bronco Mendenhall. Utah State also played four quarters of pretty 537 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,640 Speaker 2: competitive football with Texas A and M, and we saw 538 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 2: Texas A and M ceiling at least offensively against the 539 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 2: fighting Irish in South Bend. So walk me through this game, 540 00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 2: what you can expect and some of the finer points 541 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 2: that people should consider before putting a play in. 542 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, so we saw Vandy off the major revenge game. 543 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 3: Georgia State beat him last season, and Vandy clearly did 544 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 3: not for get that and they just blew the doors 545 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 3: off of Georgia State. There was some significant motivation to 546 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,120 Speaker 3: continue to pour it on and so here this week 547 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 3: there seems to be a little bit of a scheduling 548 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 3: advantage for Utah State, who heads into the bye week 549 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,640 Speaker 3: before traveling out to Hawaii after that. If I'm Bronco, 550 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 3: I just advocate to spend the bye week in Hawaii, 551 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 3: to be honest with you. But Vandy goes to Alabama next. 552 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,480 Speaker 3: So that's the tricky scheduling spot here is how are 553 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 3: these guys going to handle this spot? And when you 554 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 3: assess some of the PFF grades, Utah State grades out 555 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 3: significantly stronger than Georgia State in pass coverage, stopping the 556 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 3: run overall defense, so I can understand why this spread 557 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 3: is short significantly shorter than what we saw last week 558 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 3: with Georgia State, but there are still major concerns that 559 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 3: I have about Georgia State being able to put the 560 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,959 Speaker 3: shackles on Vandy. Utah State will generate zero pass rush here. 561 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 3: They're one hundred and seventeenth nationally in defensive HAVOC and 562 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 3: they are just not a strong overall tackling team per PFF. 563 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 3: They will a little more resistance than Georgia State did, 564 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,640 Speaker 3: but Vanderbilt will still move the ball whenever they want. 565 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 3: Utah States offense could be in some significant major trouble here. 566 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 3: Vandy is allowing just two point six yards per rush 567 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 3: attempt over the course of the entire season. Utah State 568 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 3: has a very weak offensive line, which has already allowed 569 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 3: sixteen sacks and twenty seven tackles for loss. Vandy is 570 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 3: thirteenth nationally in defensive havoc registered and really a solid 571 00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 3: sound coverage unit. I can see Barnes holding onto this 572 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 3: football far too long here and just consistently being under duress, 573 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 3: which will result in sacks, throwaways, bad decisions. You know, 574 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,439 Speaker 3: you look at Utah State just fourteen for forty six 575 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 3: on third down, but if you factor out their game 576 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 3: against FCS McNee last week, they were just eight for 577 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 3: thirty eight prior to that on third down, and Vandy 578 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,199 Speaker 3: is holding opponents to just thirty four percent success on 579 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 3: third down against them. I expect Utah State to not 580 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 3: be able to run the football. They're going to be 581 00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,119 Speaker 3: behind the sticks frequently, and they're going to have to 582 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,520 Speaker 3: deal with third and long a ton here. I see 583 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 3: Vanderbilt having success offensively in early downs. There should rarely 584 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 3: be an instance where they're behind the chains. I want 585 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,119 Speaker 3: to take the unknown variables out of this one. I 586 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 3: don't know how long they're going to play Diego Pavia 587 00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 3: and the starting offensive platoon in the second half. There's 588 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 3: going to be some motivation to get the outcome of 589 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 3: this game decided quickly and get some of the other 590 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:31,680 Speaker 3: players in there, because they're going to want to get 591 00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:36,880 Speaker 3: onto Alabama as soon as humanly possible. So I would 592 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 3: advocate a play here on Vanderbilt first half, they're minus 593 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 3: twelve and a half. I can see this bunch in 594 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,080 Speaker 3: the red zone three or four times in the first half. 595 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,960 Speaker 3: I can see them very similar to last week. They 596 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 3: scored a touchdown on every possession in the first half 597 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,560 Speaker 3: against Georgia State. I'm not sure Utah State will have 598 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 3: enough defensively in the trenches at linebacker to be able 599 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,720 Speaker 3: to stop what Vanderbilt wants to do on the ground. 600 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,480 Speaker 3: And Uta State is just one hundred and twenty third 601 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 3: nationally in defensive finishing drives. Vandy is tenth offensively in 602 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 3: finishing drives. We should see a three score lead at 603 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 3: half before Vanderbilt salts the second half away, and we've 604 00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,760 Speaker 3: seen Utah State with a propensity to play meaningful snaps 605 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 3: in the second half even win down, so I want 606 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 3: to avoid a backdoor cover. Even if Vandy were up 607 00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 3: by four touchdowns, You're never really comfortable there. But I 608 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 3: think the first half is the play at under fourteen. 609 00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:34,880 Speaker 3: We can get Vanderbilt to score early and score off, 610 00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 3: and they'll put the shackles on Utah State in the 611 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 3: first half, and then they can just assess how they 612 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 3: want to play out the second half before getting onto Alabama, 613 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 3: which is a huge game for Vanderbilt in their trajectory. 614 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 3: So I see this one playing out similarly. In the 615 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 3: first half, Vanderbilt will have a plenty of success. I 616 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 3: personally put in a play on Vanderbilt first half minus 617 00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 3: twelve and a half. 618 00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, we turn now to our G five money line 619 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:00,680 Speaker 2: on dog. 620 00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:07,320 Speaker 3: Parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends. 621 00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. 622 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: I'm going to. 623 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,960 Speaker 2: Start with an FCS team. I know that I am 624 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 2: treading into your territory, so I'm going to be brief 625 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 2: here and I want your honest reaction on this one, Duck. 626 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 2: I got a top ten FCS team that I think, 627 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 2: maybe on a neutral field, better than the team that 628 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,719 Speaker 2: they're playing. I think it's rightfully so that they're an 629 00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 2: underdog here traveling to Western Michigan. But Rhode Islands at 630 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 2: just about plus two point fifty the Rams, as I 631 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 2: mentioned there, I think there's seventh in the coach's poll 632 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 2: at the FCS level. They got a great passing offense 633 00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 2: Devin Ferrel and Mark Keith Buchanan. Keep in mind that 634 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 2: name because he's somebody who's going to be in an 635 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,640 Speaker 2: NFL training camp next summer. He's six', four he's super, 636 00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 2: explosive eighteen and a half yards per. Reception he's the 637 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 2: guy who breaks you, know the defense wide open when 638 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 2: teams are focusing on stopping their running. Game AND i 639 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,200 Speaker 2: just look at This West michigan. Team, yes they Beat. 640 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 2: TOLEDO i think that's all About Jason kandell and The 641 00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 2: rockets playing down on an annual basis to one team 642 00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,560 Speaker 2: that they should dog, walk and they end up losing out. 643 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,320 Speaker 2: Right when you look at this, offense they can't run. 644 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 2: Block buckley is averaging three yards Per. CARRIE i have 645 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 2: no faith whatsoever in their passing. GAME i think at 646 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 2: the very, least this is kind of like a rock 647 00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 2: fight kind of. Game and Does Rhode island get some 648 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 2: success early in this game to make them feel like 649 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 2: we belong, here we're the better. Team because if you 650 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 2: just want to look at one major, Metric Bill conley 651 00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:33,800 Speaker 2: ranks every team one to seven hundred and sixty fifth 652 00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,960 Speaker 2: in the whole, Country Rhode island one hundred and twenty, 653 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 2: fourth one of the highest RATED fcs, Teams Western michigan 654 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty. Ninth so in terms of his internal, 655 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 2: numbers even the boost from Beating toledo wasn't enough for 656 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 2: them to leap frog AND fcs team like The. Rams 657 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 2: i'm going to. Go you, Know Rhode island, here the 658 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 2: biggest little state in The. Union Go. Roady talk me 659 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 2: through why you Like Western, michigan because we were going 660 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 2: back and forth on this throughout the, week and it 661 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 2: seems like you have no problem to ten with The. Broncos. 662 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,680 Speaker 3: YEAH i, Mean i've been so impressed With Western michigan 663 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,959 Speaker 3: and how they've hung in there against superior. Opponents, defensively 664 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 3: they Played Michigan state very very competitively in the. Opener 665 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,480 Speaker 3: they Played illinois at ten nothing at the, half and 666 00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 3: they blew a couple of red zone opportunities where they 667 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 3: couldn't punch it in around the goal line or that 668 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:23,080 Speaker 3: outcome would have been significantly. DIFFERENT a team that we 669 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 3: have really identified as a strong UNDERRATED g five team 670 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,920 Speaker 3: As North, Texas Western michigan had that game firmly in 671 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 3: hand and gave it away at, home could have very 672 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,040 Speaker 3: easily beaten The me And, green and they just took 673 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 3: down conference Favorite. Toledo they played very very well at, 674 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 3: home And Western michigan takes THESE fcs games very. Seriously 675 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,040 Speaker 3: they've covered a significant significant number of games over the 676 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 3: last fifteen years AGAINST fcs, competition and you, know you 677 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,520 Speaker 3: look At Rhode island and they are a very GOOD fcs. 678 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 3: TEAM i still don't know what we'll see in the 679 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,400 Speaker 3: trenches with this group when they line up Against Western. 680 00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 3: Michigan And i'm just also trying to consider the competition 681 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,400 Speaker 3: that they've. Played campbell And Stony brook are both down 682 00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 3: As His Holy, cross who they beat nine to, seven 683 00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 3: and last week they played Against Long Island. University SO 684 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:12,640 Speaker 3: i Think Rhode island's a good. TEAM i think they 685 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:18,240 Speaker 3: could potentially really shine IN caa play and be a 686 00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,720 Speaker 3: competitive he possibly a fringe playoff team at THE fcs, 687 00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 3: Level But i'm not sure that this group is ready 688 00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 3: to go to AN fbs stadium and get the. 689 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 2: Win so it sounds like you're trusting in This Western 690 00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 2: michigan defense to Hold Rhode islands below let's call it seventeen, 691 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 2: points so they score fourteen to. FINE i still have 692 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 2: my concerns about this passing a. Sack when you look 693 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 2: at these, numbers they have one passing touchdown the entire. 694 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,760 Speaker 2: Year Brackbrock lowry is somebody who's done it more with 695 00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 2: his legs than with his. ARM i will just say. 696 00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 2: This if The rams can get an early, LEAD i 697 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 2: really like my. POSITION i don't think that they are 698 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 2: suited to come from behind because of how Well Western 699 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 2: michigan has acquitted itself on that side of the. Ball 700 00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,120 Speaker 2: but at this price, point and by the, way if 701 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,040 Speaker 2: you're listening, NOW i would wait till later in the. 702 00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,719 Speaker 2: WEEK i think there's a better. Chance coming off The toledo, 703 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 2: win people are going to have that recency. Bias some 704 00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:08,880 Speaker 2: more money is going to flood in on The. Broncos and, 705 00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,359 Speaker 2: this you, know slowly but surely gets closer to three to, 706 00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:14,320 Speaker 2: one three to. ONE i love. It I'M i already 707 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,200 Speaker 2: have it locked, in you know in the app at 708 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 2: plus two. Fifty so go ahead and follow. That but 709 00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,320 Speaker 2: this is something THAT'S i think could end up being 710 00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 2: a better value come kickoff than it is right now 711 00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:26,560 Speaker 2: when you're, Listening all, right, doc what are you pairing 712 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:30,560 Speaker 2: this up? With from an underdog? Perspective, oh this is. 713 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,319 Speaker 3: Gross this week we searched far and wide to try 714 00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 3: to find underdogs that we could could tangibly feel good 715 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 3: about here and this is ONE i have. Played But 716 00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:45,760 Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee state has started to just put some competent football. 717 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,839 Speaker 3: Together they've looked so terrible at points this. Season they 718 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 3: looked really bad in the opener Against austin p and 719 00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:53,799 Speaker 3: then they put it together for a half Against, wisconsin 720 00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:56,080 Speaker 3: and then they looked terrible for three and a half 721 00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 3: quarters Against nevada and pulled out a. Victory and then 722 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,400 Speaker 3: they played competitively Against marshall at. Home there was a weather, 723 00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,040 Speaker 3: delay there was back and forth, football a couple breaks 724 00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,160 Speaker 3: didn't go their. Way they lost the. Game Kansas state 725 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,600 Speaker 3: was able to Catch Arkansas state in a dream scenario 726 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,879 Speaker 3: where they had Played arkansas for the first time, ever 727 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 3: and Then Arkansas state went in and Hosted Iowa. State 728 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,200 Speaker 3: should have won the football game on the field kind 729 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:23,279 Speaker 3: of got hosed a little. Bit and Then Arkansas state 730 00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,840 Speaker 3: had to step out a conference and go To Kanessas, 731 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,080 Speaker 3: state the SMALLEST fbs stadium out of one hundred and 732 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 3: thirty six and just a strange environment they hadn't been. 733 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,480 Speaker 3: In what Does Kanessas state? Do they go win the 734 00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:37,319 Speaker 3: game on the, Field good for, them but should they 735 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 3: be laying all these points now eight and a half 736 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,879 Speaker 3: points they're. LAYING i don't KNOW i have this. Rate 737 00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,759 Speaker 3: it is closer to minus two minus, three so we're 738 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 3: getting a lot of value On Middle tennessee plus two 739 00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,320 Speaker 3: sixty on the money. Line Kanisas state just one hundred 740 00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 3: and thirty fourth in offensive success, rate one twentieth in 741 00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:58,600 Speaker 3: offensive finishing. Drives just seven out of fifteen red zone 742 00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 3: trips have ended in, touchdowns And kennesaw is dead last 743 00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:07,120 Speaker 3: IN fbs in standard down success. Rate so this team 744 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,319 Speaker 3: cannot be counted on to continually be ahead of the, 745 00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 3: sticks continue to move the football effectively with successful. Plays 746 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,239 Speaker 3: they're going to need chunk. Plays they're going to have 747 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,279 Speaker 3: to get some, explosives AND i just don't know if 748 00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,920 Speaker 3: that's something that we can count on from this group 749 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,240 Speaker 3: a second week in a row after doing it Against 750 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 3: Arkansas state last. Week when you look At Middle, TENNESSEE 751 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:33,080 Speaker 3: i V addiato averaged nine point one yards per attempt 752 00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,560 Speaker 3: last week and through for three hundred yards Against, marshall 753 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 3: that offense is starting to turn the. Corner they're not 754 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 3: all the way there, yet but the entire operation just 755 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 3: looked a lot more, sharp a lot more competent than 756 00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,799 Speaker 3: in the first couple of. Weeks Middle tennessee saw a 757 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,839 Speaker 3: ton of run plays last, week and they really held 758 00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 3: in there pretty well Against. Marshall, AGAIN i think this 759 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 3: game is really should be lined a little closer to 760 00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,719 Speaker 3: even or minus two than what we're getting. Here there's 761 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 3: a ton of value In, Middle. Tennessee i've already put 762 00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:04,560 Speaker 3: in a play on the plus eight and a half 763 00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:06,719 Speaker 3: in the. APP i Think middle can go out there 764 00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 3: and win the game on the. Field so at plus two, 765 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,319 Speaker 3: sixty this is absolutely the money moneyline dog Shot i've 766 00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 3: taken a shot with this. 767 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,680 Speaker 2: Week when you put these two plays, together they land 768 00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 2: anywhere between ten and eleven to. One make sure to 769 00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:20,560 Speaker 2: shop around get the best number because moneyline parlay like 770 00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,359 Speaker 2: this could make your entire, Month so go ahead and 771 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 2: make sure that you're finding the best number possible before 772 00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 2: locking in that. Parlay all, right check out the Parlay 773 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,600 Speaker 2: express account and the free award Winning Action network app 774 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,160 Speaker 2: and we'll be there posting OUR g five money line 775 00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,719 Speaker 2: parlay making it easy for you to. Find you'll find 776 00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 2: a bunch of other fun long shot bets there as. 777 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,200 Speaker 2: Well you can also find the quick slip link of 778 00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,279 Speaker 2: the podcast and episode description on the video side of, 779 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 2: things where you can find us at THE bboc YouTube. 780 00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,680 Speaker 2: Page you can also visit us at actionnetwork dot com slash. 781 00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,160 Speaker 2: Betanio it's a fine entail some of the bets we've 782 00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,279 Speaker 2: discussed thus far in the, episode including OUR g five 783 00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:59,279 Speaker 2: money line the. Parlay all, right it's two minute drill. 784 00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:03,000 Speaker 2: Time my Friend, duck you were up, first and you're 785 00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,719 Speaker 2: pulling from one of my favorites. Teams we only talk 786 00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:09,040 Speaker 2: about him really during college basketball, season and if, anything 787 00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:10,880 Speaker 2: it's just in passing because they got a great. Name 788 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 2: we're talking about The Blue. Hose Presbyterian. College walk me 789 00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:15,000 Speaker 2: through your first play. 790 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:18,280 Speaker 3: Here, yeah they're Hosting Morehead state this week In Pioneer 791 00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,520 Speaker 3: Football league non Scholarship Pioneer Football league. Play these two, 792 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:25,320 Speaker 3: Teams presbyterian And Morehead state have a similar schedule profile 793 00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,880 Speaker 3: in terms of the opponents that they, faced but the 794 00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:30,560 Speaker 3: similarities in there when you look at the actual. Results 795 00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,800 Speaker 3: presby has defeated Two Southern conference, teams While Morehead state 796 00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,400 Speaker 3: has been blown out badly By Illinois state And austin 797 00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,520 Speaker 3: P Morehead state giving up four hundred and sixty six 798 00:38:40,640 --> 00:38:43,160 Speaker 3: yards per game defensively and seven and a half yards 799 00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:47,160 Speaker 3: per play nine yards per pass surrendered through the air 800 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:52,200 Speaker 3: By Morehead state and shredded consistently in pass. Defense Morehead 801 00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,400 Speaker 3: state cannot pass protect very. Well they've already given up 802 00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 3: nine sacks and twenty one TFLs this. Season presbyterian should 803 00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:03,920 Speaker 3: feast in the backfield Against Morehead state and will create 804 00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,440 Speaker 3: a ton of, havoc a ton of pressure and force 805 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,239 Speaker 3: at least two or three turnovers in this. One the 806 00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:13,080 Speaker 3: difference maker for me Is presbyterian Quarterback Colin hurst sixty 807 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,200 Speaker 3: eight percent, completions a thirteen to four touchdown to interception, 808 00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,880 Speaker 3: ratio and already twelve hundred yards thrown four through the. 809 00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,040 Speaker 3: Air this is a, bad bad matchup For Morehead. State 810 00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,719 Speaker 3: anything under two touchdowns as a. GO i have this 811 00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 3: one projected At presbyterian minus ten and a. Half anything 812 00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:31,759 Speaker 3: under two touchdowns is a full. Go next one, Here Tennessee. 813 00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:33,759 Speaker 3: Tech this is a projection of minus eight and a 814 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,279 Speaker 3: half for The Golden. Eagles they're Playing Tennessee. State these 815 00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:40,800 Speaker 3: two programs have so much separation between them in terms 816 00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,040 Speaker 3: of talent and. EXECUTION i have this one playing to 817 00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,880 Speaker 3: a four touchdown. Blowout so at the current projections of 818 00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:48,880 Speaker 3: eight and a, half this is going to be a, 819 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,040 Speaker 3: sizeable sizeable. PLAY i would lay up to nineteen and 820 00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:55,000 Speaker 3: a half With Tennessee. Tech Tennessee state is two to, 821 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,359 Speaker 3: one run heavy and averaging just three point yards per 822 00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,799 Speaker 3: attempt on the. Ground there's not a lot to like 823 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,120 Speaker 3: outside of a couple running backs that can have a little, 824 00:40:03,120 --> 00:40:06,400 Speaker 3: pop and quarterback play for The tigers is just not 825 00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:10,040 Speaker 3: proficient enough to stress The Golden eagles. Defense. Here Tennessee 826 00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,240 Speaker 3: tech has three running backs that are averaging nine yards 827 00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,919 Speaker 3: per carry on the, ground and this ground attack will 828 00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,399 Speaker 3: hum in this one Quarterback cocoa visperas we talked about 829 00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:23,440 Speaker 3: him earlier this, year sixty eight percent, completions eight, touchdowns one, 830 00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,719 Speaker 3: interception and just a really buttoned up team against a 831 00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,720 Speaker 3: team that's still finding. Themselves lay it with The Golden. 832 00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:33,320 Speaker 3: Eagles anything under nineteen and a. Half last one Here Southeastern. 833 00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:36,400 Speaker 3: Louisiana they are projected nine and a half point favorites 834 00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:40,920 Speaker 3: Against Southland conference newcomer Ut Rio Grand, valley who is 835 00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:42,680 Speaker 3: in their first year as a. Program they've been an 836 00:40:42,719 --> 00:40:45,800 Speaker 3: excellent story at THE fcs. Level they're playing good football 837 00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,000 Speaker 3: and they're actually four and oh this. Season but let's be, 838 00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,839 Speaker 3: real these guys have played a bottom Five division two 839 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:57,160 Speaker 3: level program two very WEAK naiafos And Prairie VIEW a AND. 840 00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,440 Speaker 3: M i'm not buying it. Here even With Eddie lee Mar, 841 00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:05,800 Speaker 3: berger formerly OF, utsa leading the offense FOR. Utrgv Southeastern 842 00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:09,880 Speaker 3: louisiana has losses Against Louisiana tech IN lsu and have 843 00:41:10,040 --> 00:41:12,400 Speaker 3: really beaten up on the other teams on their schedule 844 00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:16,960 Speaker 3: with a similar talent profile TO utah or Excuse Texas 845 00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,040 Speaker 3: Rio Grand. VALLEY i am laying this number. HERE i 846 00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,040 Speaker 3: would lay up to three. Touchdowns anything under three touchdowns 847 00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:25,759 Speaker 3: is a full go For Southeastern, louisiana who is a 848 00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:30,200 Speaker 3: very Strong Southern conference. Team anything under two touchdowns is 849 00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,040 Speaker 3: going to be a sizeable play, Here so lay it 850 00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,000 Speaker 3: With Southeastern louisiana. 851 00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:35,680 Speaker 2: All, Right time for my two minute. Drill let's start 852 00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:37,719 Speaker 2: with App state catching nine and a half in the 853 00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,880 Speaker 2: first half At Boise. State rest in peace To Sean. 854 00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,239 Speaker 2: Clark he was a huge part of the App state 855 00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,279 Speaker 2: community for nine years coaching, there and he coached and 856 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,960 Speaker 2: recruited a large amount of players on this veried. Team 857 00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,279 Speaker 2: SO i think from an emotional, standpoint you're going to 858 00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:54,920 Speaker 2: get premium, effort particularly in the first half for The. 859 00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,160 Speaker 2: Mountaineers these kids are also coming off a, buy SO 860 00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,640 Speaker 2: i think that gets them ready. Emotionally it's them ready 861 00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,719 Speaker 2: for what they're going to see from A boise team 862 00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,160 Speaker 2: that is starting to move in the right direction after 863 00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,520 Speaker 2: laying an egg in that opener Against South. Florida that 864 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,720 Speaker 2: looks a lot better given the fact That South florida 865 00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:13,040 Speaker 2: then went and upset The Florida, gators so that you, 866 00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,240 Speaker 2: know loss all of a sudden gets put in the proper. 867 00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,839 Speaker 2: Perspective boise is moving in the right, direction but they 868 00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:19,960 Speaker 2: also have a look ahead spot now because they Have 869 00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:22,439 Speaker 2: Notre dame coming up next on their. Schedule they win 870 00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:24,279 Speaker 2: that one In South, bend all of a, sudden they're 871 00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:27,080 Speaker 2: back in the playoff, conversation but you, know being able 872 00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,440 Speaker 2: to capture that auto bid from THE g. FIVE i 873 00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,799 Speaker 2: want a motivated side in this. One i'd love to get, 874 00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:33,600 Speaker 2: ten BUT i think nine and a half is, Enough 875 00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:35,239 Speaker 2: So i'm on the kneear's there in the first thirty, 876 00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,399 Speaker 2: Minutes New Mexico state catching thirteen and a half At New. 877 00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:42,040 Speaker 2: Mexico The Rio grand rivalry is always. Tight remember that 878 00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,520 Speaker 2: it's been win within this point spread at nine in 879 00:42:44,560 --> 00:42:46,680 Speaker 2: the last ten, years and to catch everyone. Up we 880 00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,320 Speaker 2: thought both of these teams would either be rebuilding or 881 00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,319 Speaker 2: just outright bad this. Year that has not been the. 882 00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,399 Speaker 2: Case state is two and one with wins over Brian, 883 00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:55,840 Speaker 2: it'sulsa And New mexico is two and one with a 884 00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:59,279 Speaker 2: really strong showing in defeat At, michigan then a ten 885 00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:02,040 Speaker 2: point win OVER Fcs Idaho, state and then a shocking 886 00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,520 Speaker 2: twenty five point beat down OF. Ucla BUT i think 887 00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,920 Speaker 2: THAT ucla win is throwing the power rankings out of, 888 00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,600 Speaker 2: whack and that's why this point spread is closer to two. 889 00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:13,960 Speaker 2: Touchdowns ucla no show that. Game they fired their coach. 890 00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,879 Speaker 2: Afterwards New mexico is well. COACHED i get that they 891 00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,400 Speaker 2: are a hard nose rush first kind of, team but 892 00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:23,279 Speaker 2: they don't put too much On jacqueline's. Shoulders and there's you, 893 00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,680 Speaker 2: know metrics here that worry me greatly with The lobos 894 00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,759 Speaker 2: as nearly a two touchdown. Favorite, namely they're outside of 895 00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,760 Speaker 2: the top one hundred in terms of explosiveness rushing success, 896 00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:34,920 Speaker 2: rate and their defense creates little to no havoc one 897 00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,760 Speaker 2: hundred and thirty second there give me the road aggies 898 00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,480 Speaker 2: here and an Average logan fife and make jokes about 899 00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,200 Speaker 2: them all the, time BUT i think they GET c 900 00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,359 Speaker 2: PLUS b minus quarterback play out of. Them and When 901 00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,919 Speaker 2: i'm catching just about two, TOUCHDOWNS i think that's enough 902 00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,920 Speaker 2: to stay within the. Number i'm going to close this 903 00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,400 Speaker 2: out With Western kentucky traveling to Play Missouri state THE Fbs, 904 00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:54,840 Speaker 2: newby let's go over the total of fifty. NINE i 905 00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,560 Speaker 2: have not given up On maverick And Coach. Bowie they 906 00:43:57,560 --> 00:43:59,880 Speaker 2: were out of sync last week Against, nevada and coach 907 00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,200 Speaker 2: is a defensive guy who can make life hard on 908 00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,880 Speaker 2: just about any offense play caller. Quarterback but This hilltopper 909 00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:10,319 Speaker 2: system is all about stacking, completions And Missouri state is 910 00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,799 Speaker 2: allowing opposing passers to hit seventy point six percent of 911 00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:17,040 Speaker 2: their pass. Attempts that's third worst in THE. Fbs Western 912 00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,200 Speaker 2: kentucky can also play incredibly fast THAT nascar. Tempo it's 913 00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:22,640 Speaker 2: going to give them enough plays on their side and 914 00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,680 Speaker 2: also to Get Missouri state back on the field to 915 00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:27,320 Speaker 2: hit this Over Missouri. State by the, Way Jacob clark 916 00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,120 Speaker 2: has been two quarterbacks this entire year against QUALITY p 917 00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:34,080 Speaker 2: four competition LIKE usc AND. Smu he was under consistent, 918 00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:38,080 Speaker 2: fire taking, sacks throwing five, interceptions who sacked ten. Times 919 00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:41,120 Speaker 2: in those two games Against marshall and Ut Martin Ghost, 920 00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:44,279 Speaker 2: skyhawks he completed seventy percent of his, attempts hit six 921 00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:48,399 Speaker 2: touchdown passes against just one. Interception that's The Jacob clark 922 00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:51,160 Speaker 2: we're going to get in this game For Missouri. State 923 00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:53,600 Speaker 2: and also he's got one of his best targets, Back Jake, 924 00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:56,440 Speaker 2: blackstrain his top target is now. HEALTHY i think he 925 00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:59,400 Speaker 2: can expose a hilltopper secondary that has good numbers this 926 00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,400 Speaker 2: year against pass BUT i think that's a byproduct of 927 00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,080 Speaker 2: the offenses that they've. Faced toledo was happy to run 928 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,279 Speaker 2: it for three hundred yards on. Them Sam houston was 929 00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,080 Speaker 2: a Mess North alabama as AN fcs, team And nevada 930 00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,440 Speaker 2: was relying On Chubba, party who we all know is. 931 00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:14,520 Speaker 2: Awful SO i think both teams lighted. Up we get 932 00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:18,120 Speaker 2: closer to seventy points here than the listed total of fifty. 933 00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:20,160 Speaker 2: Nine all, right that's it for my two minute. Drill 934 00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:24,080 Speaker 2: we now close this episode out with a familiar, segment 935 00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,800 Speaker 2: our tug of, War Pat shit Boy, ton Hard. Harder 936 00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:30,640 Speaker 2: you're back to, Midfield. Louisville let me. DOWN i was 937 00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:34,200 Speaker 2: just about knocking on the door Of duck's red, zone 938 00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:36,759 Speaker 2: and Then louisville gave up fourteen points in the fourth 939 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,880 Speaker 2: quarter to the cover King Eddie. George lesson learned on my. 940 00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,640 Speaker 2: Side but we're back With Eddie george, Here i'm gonna 941 00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,840 Speaker 2: Take Bowling green plus ten AT. Ohi i'm going to 942 00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,319 Speaker 2: tell you why Before duck gets to, counter and why 943 00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:51,440 Speaker 2: he's in favor of basically tailing the home team and The, 944 00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,279 Speaker 2: bobcats who have looked great on. Offense what CAN i 945 00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:56,239 Speaker 2: count on? Here let me try to talk myself into 946 00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,200 Speaker 2: The Bowling green side beyond just the fact that they 947 00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:01,200 Speaker 2: muck games. Up is, It Drew. Pine, no they have 948 00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,280 Speaker 2: to play keep, away they have to play very. Slow 949 00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,600 Speaker 2: but their run game has performed far better THAN i 950 00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,200 Speaker 2: thought it would in a year zero. Situation With Eddie, 951 00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:11,080 Speaker 2: george the rebuild is already there because he's found three 952 00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:14,040 Speaker 2: interchangeable parts at running. Back you Got, Roberts pataway and. 953 00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:16,799 Speaker 2: McMillan they're all between five eight one seventy and five, 954 00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,480 Speaker 2: ten one hundred and ninety. Pounds so as a, trio 955 00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,080 Speaker 2: they're not breaking. Down they're sharing the. Rock as a, 956 00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,319 Speaker 2: trio they're averaging nearly five yards per. Carry maybe it's 957 00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:28,480 Speaker 2: the first year head, coach BUT i think there's certainly 958 00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:30,720 Speaker 2: that voice they're hearing in the locker. Room they're fighting 959 00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:33,480 Speaker 2: for sixty. Minutes they're not giving. Up they're interested in 960 00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,839 Speaker 2: both winning games, outright as they already have this, year 961 00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:39,080 Speaker 2: Beating liberty as a pretty sizeable, underdog but also the 962 00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:41,840 Speaker 2: moral victories of fighting for four quarters against some of 963 00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,319 Speaker 2: the stronger teams that they. Played WHEN i look at 964 00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,840 Speaker 2: it as, well their defense continues to show up on big, 965 00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,560 Speaker 2: downs and that's how you stay within the number against 966 00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:52,720 Speaker 2: an offense as dynamic as The. Bobcats they're forty seventh 967 00:46:52,800 --> 00:46:55,759 Speaker 2: and third down, defense and then on fourth downs they 968 00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,480 Speaker 2: already have four stops this, season so that can be 969 00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:00,480 Speaker 2: something that can kind of turn the tie in this. 970 00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:02,920 Speaker 2: Game the other part of it, is and the reason 971 00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:05,880 Speaker 2: WHY i just can't give Out ohio in this tug of. 972 00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,919 Speaker 2: War are they? Gassed they should be. Gassed they played 973 00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,200 Speaker 2: three straight paycheck. Games navarro got banged up Against Ohio. 974 00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,799 Speaker 2: State then they come out flat Against Gardner, webb which 975 00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,080 Speaker 2: should have been a free, square get their starters out at. 976 00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:20,040 Speaker 2: Halftime instead they fall down fourteen to. Three they got 977 00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:21,640 Speaker 2: to fight their way. Back it was a game in 978 00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:23,840 Speaker 2: the fourth. Quarter i'll take the cover king here and 979 00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,920 Speaker 2: the ten points to Past ohio and hang around inside of. 980 00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,680 Speaker 2: Ten all, Right, duck the floor is. Yours why are 981 00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:29,960 Speaker 2: you on the? 982 00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:30,320 Speaker 1: Bobs? 983 00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:35,359 Speaker 3: YEAH bg has defeated a horribly underperforming liberty team out 984 00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:39,440 Speaker 3: Of CONFERENCE usa and THEN Fcs, lafayette and The falcons 985 00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:41,840 Speaker 3: honestly have looked pretty good in their other games Against 986 00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,600 Speaker 3: power four opponents this. Season the problem With Bowling green 987 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:46,880 Speaker 3: is that they have looked good after the outcome was 988 00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:51,000 Speaker 3: well decided while covering three touchdown spreads Against cincinnati And. 989 00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,920 Speaker 3: Louisville But i'm just not sure we ever get to 990 00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,600 Speaker 3: a point here where this game is truly in the 991 00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,560 Speaker 3: bag either, way and SO i don't think we'll See 992 00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:04,040 Speaker 3: ohio roll out their reserves on. DEFENSE i think you 993 00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:07,040 Speaker 3: look At, ohio they've kind of impressed me a little 994 00:48:07,040 --> 00:48:09,120 Speaker 3: bit with their ability to tighten the screws in the 995 00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:12,319 Speaker 3: red zone and on third. Down only six red zone 996 00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:15,799 Speaker 3: possessions out of fifteen attempts have resulted in, touchdowns and 997 00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:19,080 Speaker 3: opponents are converting just ten out of forty five third down. 998 00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:22,600 Speaker 3: Attempts The Drew pine voodoo at the end of games 999 00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:25,520 Speaker 3: really has to stop at some. Point the passing numbers 1000 00:48:25,880 --> 00:48:31,000 Speaker 3: the last couple of weeks have regressed from his peak Against, 1001 00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:34,320 Speaker 3: cincinnati only fifty percent completions and two hundred and seventy 1002 00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,280 Speaker 3: seven combined passing yards in the last two games. COMBINED 1003 00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,880 Speaker 3: i Expect Bowling green to really have to grind for 1004 00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:43,800 Speaker 3: everything that they are going to try to do. Here 1005 00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:46,680 Speaker 3: Bowling green just one hundred and twenty six nationally in 1006 00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:50,720 Speaker 3: offensive explosiveness and one hundred and sixth offensively in finishing. 1007 00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:54,440 Speaker 3: Drives Bowling green in the red zone this season thirteen, 1008 00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:57,560 Speaker 3: trips only four, touchdowns and four times they've been turned 1009 00:48:57,600 --> 00:49:01,800 Speaker 3: away empty. Handed so you just really can't consistently count 1010 00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,640 Speaker 3: on them to matriculate the ball, down convert third, down 1011 00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:08,239 Speaker 3: get into the red zone and score. It to try 1012 00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:11,880 Speaker 3: to cover this relatively short, Number Bowling green doesn't have 1013 00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,560 Speaker 3: nearly the defense in my, opinion to try to pin 1014 00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:17,840 Speaker 3: Down Parker, navarro who's a major, dude and The ohio. 1015 00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:21,399 Speaker 3: Offense we Saw navarro average eight point one yards per 1016 00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:23,600 Speaker 3: pass attempt over the course of this entire season and 1017 00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:27,640 Speaker 3: sixty five percent completion. Percentage the ground game finally got 1018 00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:29,960 Speaker 3: hum in last week three hundred and eighteen yards on the, 1019 00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,319 Speaker 3: ground and they're Getting bangura kind of back into his 1020 00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:35,719 Speaker 3: groove there At. Ohio he's really hitting the holes. Hard 1021 00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,640 Speaker 3: this will be a close game and a good. Game 1022 00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:40,480 Speaker 3: this will be a really Fun mac. Game we'll get 1023 00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:42,239 Speaker 3: to learn a lot about these teams on where they're 1024 00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:43,880 Speaker 3: going to be In mac. Play but at the end 1025 00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,359 Speaker 3: of the, Day Bowling green has pulled the wool over 1026 00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,600 Speaker 3: our eyes a couple of times now with backdoor. COVERS 1027 00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:51,040 Speaker 3: i don't think lightning strikes a third time. HERE i 1028 00:49:51,080 --> 00:49:53,279 Speaker 3: Think ohio pulls away in the. FOURTH i think they'll 1029 00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:55,000 Speaker 3: win this game by sixteen seventeen. 1030 00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:59,360 Speaker 2: Points and we Lost General, booty you, know he exhausted his, 1031 00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:02,320 Speaker 2: eligibility but we now have a major dude In Parker 1032 00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,680 Speaker 2: navarro to get. BEHIND i just HOPE i can get 1033 00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:06,800 Speaker 2: behind them after this week AND i can pull ahead 1034 00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:08,719 Speaker 2: here in the tug of. War they'll do. It for 1035 00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:10,680 Speaker 2: today's episode Of The group Of Five Deep dive under 1036 00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:13,160 Speaker 2: The Big bets On Campus. Banner thanks for tuning. In as, 1037 00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,879 Speaker 2: always don't forget to download the free award Winning Action 1038 00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:17,880 Speaker 2: network app and leave us a five star reading and 1039 00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,120 Speaker 2: review wherever you listen to the. Pod, remember if you 1040 00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:21,719 Speaker 2: like tail some of the bets that you heard From 1041 00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,520 Speaker 2: duck and myself throughout today's, episode there will be a 1042 00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:27,000 Speaker 2: quick slip link in the episode. Description you can also 1043 00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,759 Speaker 2: go To action network dot com slash bet. Now if 1044 00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:33,000 Speaker 2: you haven't, already please subscribe to our YouTube channel search 1045 00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:34,960 Speaker 2: FOR bboc and you'll have access to all of our 1046 00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:37,680 Speaker 2: college football content throughout the. Fall and as, always check 1047 00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,160 Speaker 2: out our Guys stucky And. Colin on The thursday. Episode 1048 00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:42,879 Speaker 2: they're going to run you through their entire card from 1049 00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,080 Speaker 2: the marquee matchups in the top twenty five all the 1050 00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,640 Speaker 2: way down to their trash. Segment thanks for listening to 1051 00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,160 Speaker 2: The Big bets On campus, podcasts and as, always best 1052 00:50:50,200 --> 00:50:50,720 Speaker 2: of luck. 1053 00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:51,200 Speaker 1: With all your. 1054 00:50:51,239 --> 00:51:11,080 Speaker 2: Bets Action network reminds you please gamble. 1055 00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:14,600 Speaker 3: Responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling, 1056 00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,799 Speaker 3: problem help is available twenty four to seven at one 1057 00:51:17,840 --> 00:51:18,880 Speaker 3: eight Hundred gambler