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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Juus proud red enough. They're running a game.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet twid sixteen, just glorious execution.

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Speaker 4: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 4: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 3: your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous a mount of the planet. Nobody kicks them.

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Speaker 5: Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying.

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Speaker 4: The all it left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 4: drilled BI mused, how on earth did that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wonderful Soccer Betting podcast from

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Speaker 1: the Action Network. My name is Michael Lieba. Joining me

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Speaker 1: in just a moment will be Anthony Dbundo and BJ Cunning.

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Speaker 1: Before I bring those two gentlemen in to start dissecting

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Speaker 1: the upcoming four Champions League matches, talk a very little

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Speaker 1: Europa League and maybe sprinkle in the two Premier League

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Speaker 1: MIDWEK matches as well. A reminder that Wonder Goal is

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 1: To sign up with promo code action to get BET

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Speaker 1: three six five's exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey

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Speaker 1: and Colorado and Ohio. All right, let's get to it. Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: two matches. Let's get Porto and Milan out of the

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Speaker 1: way because we'll probably spend some time on the second

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Speaker 1: match on Tuesday. A reminder, these matches kick off at

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Speaker 1: four pm Eastern time three pm BJ Central Iowa time

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Speaker 1: because European clocks haven't turned back yet. Porto is down

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Speaker 1: one nil on aggregate against Milan heading back to Portugal.

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Speaker 1: It's a pick them straight, pick them three way money line.

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Speaker 1: Quorto plus one sixty two, Milon plus one sixty two,

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Speaker 1: US plus two fifty Blonde minus three fifty two advance

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Speaker 1: port to plus two point fifty. The draw looks interesting here.

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Speaker 1: We know how these two teams are going to want

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Speaker 1: to set up. It kind of feels a little like

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Speaker 1: Spurs and Inter where the team there's one team that's

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Speaker 1: gonna the onus is on a team to score. Here

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Speaker 1: it's Porto. They're the home team, but they're just not

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Speaker 1: really built to do that, and the team that they're

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Speaker 1: going to try to do it against is should be

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Speaker 1: set up well here, So the draw would be the

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Speaker 1: only way I'd look BJ. What are your thoughts.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I like under, you know, for it's it's funny.

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Speaker 5: So for a team like Portsoy, they technically are built

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Speaker 5: to do this, like in their own league, in the

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Speaker 5: Portuguese League, like they they're very dominant against teams like

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Speaker 5: playing very defensive, but when they get over in the

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Speaker 5: Champions League, they tend to have to play way more defensive.

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Speaker 5: And that first leg, you know, I took the under

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Speaker 5: in the first leg and a little over three expected

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Speaker 5: goals were created, so I felt a little bit lucky.

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Speaker 5: Both goalies kind of stood on their head and made

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Speaker 5: some crazy saves in that one. But with the onus

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Speaker 5: actually being on Portal and with the game script actually

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Speaker 5: changing to where Inter can play more defensive, you know,

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Speaker 5: they can set up with five at the back where

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Speaker 5: they typically played out with three five two, can very

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Speaker 5: easily put five at the back. I think it's to

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Speaker 5: be very much much more difficult for Porto, who in

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Speaker 5: these Champions League type of scenarios are much better when

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Speaker 5: the game becomes transitional. That's how they got at Inter

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Speaker 5: multiple times because Inter obviously when the game was at

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Speaker 5: zero zero, Inter was going forward and then it kind

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Speaker 5: of became like this end to end style game. I

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Speaker 5: don't see inter letting that happen this time around. Now

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Speaker 5: we've mentioned they're a very very good defensive team, only

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Speaker 5: allowing point eight to seven non penalty expected goals in Italy,

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Speaker 5: only a lot of eight big scoring chances on the season. Now,

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Speaker 5: Porto did create one and a half expected goals in Milan,

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Speaker 5: but half of that was on a Taeremi rebound shot,

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Speaker 5: so all the other shots that for the remaining of

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Speaker 5: the match didn't have that high of an x G value.

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Speaker 5: And Otavio is out for Porto after doing the red card.

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Speaker 5: He's their third most productive attacker, so that obviously hinders

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Speaker 5: them a little bit offensively.

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Speaker 2: It's case it's going to be on Evan.

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Speaker 5: Nielsen and to Remy up top to produce most of

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Speaker 5: their chances. And you know, with the game strip changing

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Speaker 5: for Inter, I just I agree with you.

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Speaker 2: I don't see this.

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Speaker 5: You know, obviously Porto's a little bit better an offensive

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Speaker 5: team than Tottenham is. But like, if this game doesn't

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Speaker 5: become transitional and Porto's forced to do build up attack

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Speaker 5: after a build up attack and try to break down

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Speaker 5: a five three two, I don't really see them doing that.

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Speaker 5: So I project two point one goals for this one,

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Speaker 5: so I like under two and a half at minus one.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen Antony anything here, I'm Porto and inter before we

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Speaker 1: move on to the headliner on Tuesday.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually think you know, Champions League matches can

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Speaker 3: play out in a variety of different ways, and I

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Speaker 3: think the first leg Intermi Porto was much more willing

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Speaker 3: to give it a go than I thought they'd be.

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Speaker 3: I think that actually surprised ter. I didn't think inter

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Speaker 3: I was expecting as much of a transitional punch. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Portro was sending a good number players forward trying to

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Speaker 3: get an away goal, not that away goals matter anymore,

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Speaker 3: but trying to get a goal on the road and

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Speaker 3: get ahead. And I thought they were actually the better

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Speaker 3: side for for good portions of that. But I think

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Speaker 3: BJ's point about the shots and like why single even

104
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Speaker 3: single game XG can be flawed. It's like, okay, you

105
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Speaker 3: got to one point four or x G, how did

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Speaker 3: you get there?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: And if it's a ton of really low quality chances

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Speaker 3: and then one breakthrough, that probably suggests that you know

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Speaker 3: the breakthrough is hard to repeat and that you're not

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Speaker 3: really consistently getting those good shots, even like in the

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Speaker 3: point one two point one five range, which they weren't

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Speaker 3: getting any of those, And so I agree. I actually

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Speaker 3: like the under here too. I think there's a good chance,

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Speaker 3: you know, even and this is what I said about

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Speaker 3: Milan Spurs. Even if it is one nail Porto, you know,

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Speaker 3: you're not going to see either side taking a ton

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Speaker 3: of risk, and if it's even one one late, you're

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Speaker 3: gonna see interprotecting. Like, there's just way more scenarios where

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Speaker 3: this is a low scoring game. Then you know, of

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Speaker 3: course there could be like an early inter goal and

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Speaker 3: then Porto have to really go crazy and then it

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Speaker 3: gets out of hand. But there's more scenarios where the

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Speaker 3: game state plays out that this is a very conservative

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Speaker 3: second leg with intergoing on the road. Then there are

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Speaker 3: scenarios where it's the opposite and we see a ton

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Speaker 3: of back and forth action again like we did in

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Speaker 3: the first leg in Milan. So I also will be

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Speaker 3: on the.

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Speaker 1: Under City and Leipzig next. This is the four pm

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Speaker 1: another four pm matchup on Tuesday. Cities minus two to

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Speaker 1: fifty at home, Leipzig plus six fifty on the road

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Speaker 1: to draw US plus four to twenty five one to

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Speaker 1: one on aggregate, City is still a minus five to

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Speaker 1: fifty favorite to get through Leipsig plus three fifty. If

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Speaker 1: you're a regular listener, you know that the three of

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Speaker 1: us we at least be Ja and I Anthony. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you you mustered up the courage to

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Speaker 1: get it on the Leipzig long shot to win this

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Speaker 1: Champions League.

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Speaker 3: But I did not muster the courage.

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Speaker 1: You're still there. You still can get a big number here.

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Speaker 3: I'm still at the same it's still probably the same

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Speaker 3: number right side.

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Speaker 5: Note Michael, I bet you know, probably in the beginning

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Speaker 5: of when the draw came out, I bet Leipzig to

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Speaker 5: advance at plus four forty and they're sitting to advance

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Speaker 5: a plus four to forty right now.

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Speaker 2: So great that, I mean everybody else can still get

150
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Speaker 2: in on that.

151
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Speaker 1: Yeah, there you go, great bet, great bet, that's what

152
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Speaker 1: that's what you want to see. You want to see

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Speaker 1: absolutely no movement in the direction. That's how it's done.

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Speaker 3: Baby, Better than it being plus six hundred, that's true.

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Speaker 1: Amen, it could be worse.

156
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Speaker 3: This is a CLV podcast, so it could be worse.

157
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Speaker 2: Well, it was.

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Speaker 5: It was it was plus four thirty, so I was

159
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Speaker 5: about to tweet something out and then I went back

160
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Speaker 5: to look and it was plus four forty.

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Speaker 1: So I was like, okay, I'm not going to do

162
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Speaker 1: they saw you coming, saw me coming. Uh. Cities looked

163
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Speaker 1: really good domestically lately, I think. I mean, I know

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Speaker 1: that they got by skin of the teeth in terms

165
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Speaker 1: of like they're the one they'll win against Palace, but

166
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Speaker 1: just generally the process looks good. Phil Foden coming alive

167
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Speaker 1: not a moment too soon, but the slip stick team's

168
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Speaker 1: been so good for quite a while now in the Bundesliga.

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Speaker 1: I think if they drew anyone else beside City, they'd

170
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Speaker 1: be a pretty popular, you know, upset pick had they drawn,

171
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Speaker 1: whether it be like Madrid or Liverpool whoever of the

172
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Speaker 1: other big fish. I think like plus six fifty is

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Speaker 1: actually not a terrible number considering some of the kind

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Speaker 1: of weird results we've seen out of City. But with

175
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Speaker 1: the Leipzig future, I'm just gonna let that one ride.

176
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Speaker 1: But I if I were to make a bet on

177
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Speaker 1: this one, it would be Leipzig on the money line here,

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Speaker 1: BJ what are your thoughts?

179
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Speaker 5: Yeah, I like Leipzig plus one and a half and

180
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Speaker 5: minus one twenty five. You know, the it was a

181
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Speaker 5: very very interesting first leg, and if you just watched

182
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Speaker 5: the first half, you'd be like, oh my gosh, City

183
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Speaker 5: is so good. They just completely dominated Army Leipzig. They

184
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Speaker 5: attempted one shot the entire half. Obviously, City scored in

185
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Speaker 5: the first half, but the match completely flipped in the

186
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Speaker 5: second half. So essentially what happened was is that Leipzig

187
00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,319
Speaker 5: was trying consistently to play out of the back and

188
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Speaker 5: it just wasn't working. That He's press was was thwarting

189
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Speaker 5: when any attempt they tried to play out of the back,

190
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Speaker 5: and then you know, one of their high turnovers, you know,

191
00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,240
Speaker 5: was into the Mares goal. But then the second half,

192
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Speaker 5: the Leipzig became very much much more direct and they

193
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Speaker 5: really started to get at City over and over again.

194
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Speaker 5: They they outshot City in the second half and eventually

195
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,840
Speaker 5: got the got the what I thought the world deserved

196
00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,240
Speaker 5: goal and ended up being a very even ti match

197
00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:24,679
Speaker 5: where City was really good in the first half and

198
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Speaker 5: then like Leipzig was very good in the second. And

199
00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:29,440
Speaker 5: I mean, this Leipzig team is obviously I felt very

200
00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:30,960
Speaker 5: good about them in the first leg, and after this

201
00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:32,960
Speaker 5: I don't see any reason why to bet not to

202
00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:37,120
Speaker 5: bet them again. You know, I mentioned the stat beforehand,

203
00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,480
Speaker 5: but a couple in you know, last podcasts. But since

204
00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:43,640
Speaker 5: Marco Rosa took over second best expected go differential throughout

205
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,240
Speaker 5: Europe's top the top five leagues outside of Barcelona, just

206
00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,680
Speaker 5: uh plucking against you know, lower half of the table

207
00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,960
Speaker 5: La Liga teams. But yeah, I'm going to bet Leipzig

208
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:54,400
Speaker 5: here again a plus one and a half. I think

209
00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:58,160
Speaker 5: City is overvalued, even if it is at home, you know,

210
00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:00,960
Speaker 5: and Gooku didn't play the full match in the last

211
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:02,600
Speaker 5: match against City, which I think is huge in this

212
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:07,520
Speaker 5: matchup to give Leipzig more attacking threats going forward. So yeah,

213
00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,880
Speaker 5: I think a Leipzig is absolutely live here to get

214
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Speaker 5: through to the next round and give City a ton

215
00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,280
Speaker 5: of problems yet again and still and they're still a

216
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:16,640
Speaker 5: very very good defensive team as.

217
00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:22,240
Speaker 1: Well, Anthony, are you jumping in these friendly waters?

218
00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:27,440
Speaker 3: I'm really torn. I show value on Leipzig again, which

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Speaker 3: is to be expected.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: The first leg was relatively even. City were slightly better,

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Speaker 3: which is about what I thought they would be, and

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Speaker 3: I agree. I mean it was a tale of two halves.

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Speaker 3: The first half. You know, BJ mentioned it like the

225
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Speaker 3: seven to one shots. It wasn't that Leipzig only had

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Speaker 3: one shot. The only shot they had came in stoppage

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Speaker 3: time in the first half, so it was so bad.

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Speaker 3: People were ridiculing me in my text messages with friends

229
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Speaker 3: like I can't believe maybe me bet on this team,

230
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Speaker 3: you know, what the hell this team sucks, And then

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Speaker 3: I know the second half was a much more inspired effort.

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Speaker 3: I do worry about them going on the road though,

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Speaker 3: and I think that's going to be a difficult challenge

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Speaker 3: to try, and like they won't get away with playing

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Speaker 3: as bad as they did in the first half again

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Speaker 3: at that level. But I thought it was notable that

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Speaker 3: even in the so called dominant half, when Leipsig couldn't

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Speaker 3: play out from the back and City was able to

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Speaker 3: force high turnovers, they only managed you know, like seven shots,

240
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Speaker 3: none of which were particularly high quality. They do score,

241
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Speaker 3: but it was likeero point sixty five seven x G

242
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Speaker 3: Like it was not the typical City dominant attacking performance.

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Speaker 3: And then we go to the weekend against Newcastle, same thing,

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Speaker 3: like mosying along not conceding anything, you know, the only

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00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:41,839
Speaker 3: real chance they conceded was the Heinrichs chance one on one,

246
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Speaker 3: and then the set piece itself it was the goal.

247
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Speaker 3: And then in the in the match against Newcastle, what

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Speaker 3: do we see from City? They battened down the hatches

249
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Speaker 3: defensively after that run of giving up goals, Newcastle could

250
00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,720
Speaker 3: not create anything whatsoever. And then we went this weekend

251
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Speaker 3: against Pallace and Pallace did not register a shot on top.

252
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Speaker 3: I know that's more of a Palace problem than a

253
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Speaker 3: City problem, but it gets to the point of like

254
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Speaker 3: Pep is making a clear, conscious decision to focus on

255
00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,360
Speaker 3: defending and not can see goals at the risk of

256
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Speaker 3: his attack being worse. And I think the market's still

257
00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,120
Speaker 3: a little too high here at three, so I like under.

258
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Speaker 3: I'm betting under again another under in the Champions League,

259
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:22,360
Speaker 3: and we haven't had a lot of open matches in

260
00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:24,760
Speaker 3: this in this knockout stage, but I think the market

261
00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 3: is just a little too high on these two defenses,

262
00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:31,040
Speaker 3: still being or too low on the defenses, and the

263
00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,480
Speaker 3: total is too high, so I'm going to take the

264
00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:37,720
Speaker 3: under three. I think Pep, if they get a lead,

265
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,760
Speaker 3: will be very difficult for them to break down, and

266
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Speaker 3: I think we're going to see that happen, so I

267
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Speaker 3: think it's a one zero win and then only. And

268
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Speaker 3: it's scary is like if Lepzig does start commitee numbers forward,

269
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Speaker 3: there there goes the door for Leipzig to give up

270
00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:52,880
Speaker 3: another one. So that's the scary part. I don't see

271
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Speaker 3: them getting blitz though. Their defense is too good, and

272
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Speaker 3: so under three is my bet for for the second leg.

273
00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:03,160
Speaker 5: I think, yeah, I think that's a good point that,

274
00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,520
Speaker 5: you know, if if City does score first here, I mean,

275
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Speaker 5: who's to say that pep just doesn't say, let's just

276
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:10,760
Speaker 5: control the ball and let's just not let them have

277
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Speaker 5: it and just put the clamps down and like we've

278
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Speaker 5: seen him do time and time again throughout the champions

279
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Speaker 5: Another thing I'll mention is that you know, City only

280
00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,120
Speaker 5: had three high turnovers against Leipstick, and they came on

281
00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,560
Speaker 5: in the first half, so it was very, very difficult

282
00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:24,959
Speaker 5: for them in the second half to press and keep

283
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,320
Speaker 5: Liipstick under under wraps.

284
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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's I agree with you that it will.

285
00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,040
Speaker 5: You know, if City does score, I think they kind

286
00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:34,600
Speaker 5: of just not really can see the ball, but I'll

287
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:35,840
Speaker 5: just kind of try to control.

288
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Speaker 2: Possession and see this thing out. I don't see them.

289
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:39,480
Speaker 5: I don't see Pep trying to get into an end

290
00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 5: to end style match with Leipsig.

291
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,640
Speaker 2: I think that's a recipe for disaster for.

292
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:46,280
Speaker 3: City that will do anything to make sure that uh

293
00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,520
Speaker 3: he has game control. That's that's something goes at the

294
00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,640
Speaker 3: Nova City. And I know we all love to watch

295
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,640
Speaker 3: Holland and put bet City overs, but this will be

296
00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:55,840
Speaker 3: the fourth straight under for me on the City's ends.

297
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:56,960
Speaker 3: I do believe.

298
00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:04,200
Speaker 1: Wednesday start with Napoli and Frankfurt. Napoli's minus two hundred

299
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,920
Speaker 1: at home, Frankfurt making the trip as a five point

300
00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:11,120
Speaker 1: fifty underdog, and the draws plus three thirty three. That's

301
00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:15,120
Speaker 1: to nothing to the Italians after the first like Frankfurt's

302
00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:20,520
Speaker 1: twenty five to one to advance. It's it's not a

303
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,080
Speaker 1: not a game. I'm looking forward to bet to betting.

304
00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:25,920
Speaker 1: So this is a pretty easy pass for me here.

305
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:32,200
Speaker 1: Nothing really sticks out, Anthony, anything for you, well, I think, first.

306
00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:36,200
Speaker 3: Off, Randall Kolhamjani is out and he's been their best player,

307
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,560
Speaker 3: their best striker, their best goal scorer. He is producing

308
00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 3: very impressive numbers for a team that does not create

309
00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 3: a lot of shots. He has a pretty good XG

310
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:47,520
Speaker 3: for ninety rating up there in the top ten in

311
00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,040
Speaker 3: the Bundesliga. Has taken a real step forward this year.

312
00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 3: Like I like him as a player, but this is

313
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 3: kind of what we said in the first meeting Iron Track.

314
00:14:55,040 --> 00:15:01,760
Speaker 3: Frankfurt doesn't really press. They're not very adept and if

315
00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,160
Speaker 3: you can't really disrupt Napoli's possession and then you just

316
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,600
Speaker 3: let them get the bottlek of Arscalia, you're in big trouble.

317
00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:10,600
Speaker 3: And Frankfurt in the first leg did nothing of the

318
00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,000
Speaker 3: sort to stop him, and he kind of ran all

319
00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:14,680
Speaker 3: over them and they ended up you know, I hit

320
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,400
Speaker 3: the under and it was a miracle under two and

321
00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 3: a half was so not sure how I mean, we

322
00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,280
Speaker 3: needed a miss penalty and then let Napoli feeling bad

323
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:27,320
Speaker 3: in the second half. But I think this total at

324
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:29,640
Speaker 3: two and a half with Frankfurt having nothing to lose

325
00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,840
Speaker 3: and just kind of going to go for it. I

326
00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,800
Speaker 3: don't really want to bet the under here. I'm kind

327
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 3: of scared to do it, and so I'm not going to.

328
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,440
Speaker 3: And the same thing goes for the shot on target

329
00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,480
Speaker 3: prop which if you read my preview I ended up

330
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:45,880
Speaker 3: kind of talking about. I think it was like eleven

331
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,000
Speaker 3: and a half for shots. This is the kind of

332
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 3: situation wearing a second leg where they have nothing to lose.

333
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 3: I don't want any part of it because it could

334
00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:55,800
Speaker 3: be that Napolis just kind of sleep walking through this.

335
00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,880
Speaker 3: So I'm going to pass entirely on this.

336
00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,880
Speaker 1: Real Madrid. They're plus one twenty five at the burner

337
00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,200
Speaker 1: bow hosting Liverpool, plus one eighty seven the draws plus

338
00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,880
Speaker 1: three hundred the game state here, I think I'm most

339
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 1: excited to bet this match because it's such a funny game.

340
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 1: State Madrid's up five to two on aggregate, Liverpool's sixteen

341
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:20,520
Speaker 1: to one to advance.

342
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,840
Speaker 3: Are you on it? No, no, sixteen to one for you?

343
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 1: No no, no, no, no, definitely not Liverpool, come on.

344
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,120
Speaker 2: So, but it kind of lends to how I am betting.

345
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:32,480
Speaker 3: Well, look, we know Leeboff loves to bet the dog

346
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,080
Speaker 3: and loves to bet you know prices.

347
00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 1: Yeah when when when they had?

348
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 3: But this is like the test case, like against his

349
00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:41,280
Speaker 3: favorite team on his least favorite team.

350
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,000
Speaker 1: Yeah no way, he's He's.

351
00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,480
Speaker 3: Got all these winnings piled up from his Real Madrid

352
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:48,040
Speaker 3: money line from the first lag when well, when I

353
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:48,720
Speaker 3: had Liverpool.

354
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,200
Speaker 1: So it kind of lends into what I'm gonna say, though,

355
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,320
Speaker 1: I think Real Madrid's a great live betting opportunity here

356
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,920
Speaker 1: because you know how Liverpool is going to come out.

357
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,640
Speaker 1: Maybe they get they go out take a quick one

358
00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,240
Speaker 1: nil lead, but Madrid is the type of team that's

359
00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,959
Speaker 1: kind of built to absorb that pressure, and Liverpool will

360
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,160
Speaker 1: then go for the second one. The momentum carries in right,

361
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,359
Speaker 1: and what's gonna happen. They're just gonna be open at

362
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,760
Speaker 1: the back and and Madrid will score. And if they do,

363
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,440
Speaker 1: like if it goes from one nil Liverpool to one

364
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,199
Speaker 1: to one like that, the deflation with Liverpool is just

365
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 1: gonna be You're gonna be able to feel it in

366
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,679
Speaker 1: Iowa BJ and at that point it's just gonna be

367
00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 1: doors open. So I'm gonna be looking at bet Real

368
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 1: Madrid should they go down early in this one. And

369
00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:39,080
Speaker 1: also as we get even if it's like nil nil,

370
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 1: Clop's just gonna pull players like if like the if

371
00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,480
Speaker 1: it's out out of hand like or if they're still

372
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,399
Speaker 1: down five to two on aggregate and we're in like

373
00:17:47,400 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 1: the sixtieth minute, I don't think he's gonna keep his

374
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 1: players on the pitch. They're just gonna pull guys and

375
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,480
Speaker 1: try to make sure nobody else gets hurt as they

376
00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:58,159
Speaker 1: try to make this farcical top four push or something.

377
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:00,600
Speaker 1: So I think there's some doors open here for of

378
00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,239
Speaker 1: late another comeback win for Madrid's.

379
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's it's very funny, So I think I might.

380
00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 5: You know, I was, I was kind of just figuring

381
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 5: on passing for this one, just because you know the

382
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,199
Speaker 5: game state. But you know, I bet the over in

383
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 5: the first leg, and I think I might just do

384
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,399
Speaker 5: it because like, here's the thing, and this is the

385
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,800
Speaker 5: thing with Liverpool is like, yes, you've seen better defensive

386
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,879
Speaker 5: performances from them against Crystal Palace and against Wolves, and

387
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,960
Speaker 5: then over the weekend against Bournemouth. It's the same problem

388
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,680
Speaker 5: that they had against Real Madrid. It's where transition defense

389
00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 5: teams create a big chance and they score. And that's

390
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:37,920
Speaker 5: just what's been happening over and over again to Liverpool.

391
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:40,359
Speaker 5: Real Madrid took nine shots and scored on five of

392
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 5: them against Liverpool in the first leg.

393
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:43,320
Speaker 2: I mean, this is what they do.

394
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 5: This is what they do though, this is what they

395
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,120
Speaker 5: do throughout the Champions League. That's why they luck box

396
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 5: last season. It's just they converted on every single countertack.

397
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,440
Speaker 5: But when it just keeps happening to Liverpool like it's

398
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 5: a it's a problem, systemic problem. So I I mean,

399
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 5: I think they're probably gonna go for this from the

400
00:18:58,480 --> 00:18:59,879
Speaker 5: get go. And the thing about it is from the

401
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,439
Speaker 5: flip side of it is like Liverpool looked great in

402
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,680
Speaker 5: the first twenty minutes, like they were breaking down Real

403
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 5: Madrid's lowe block there and again like the Darwin obviously

404
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,880
Speaker 5: got the huge chance at the beginning, like Salam missed

405
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 5: a huge chance as well near the beginning of the

406
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:16,119
Speaker 5: match too. Nuniez then had a shot basically deflected off

407
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:18,680
Speaker 5: target that was had an actually rating a point sixty five.

408
00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean Real Madrid we've been talking about forever.

409
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 5: They're not that great of a defense. I mean, Anthony

410
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:26,639
Speaker 5: mentioned it last week. There's still over one non penalty

411
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 5: expectacle per match in the lowest scoring league in Europe,

412
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 5: and they really didn't put in that grade of a

413
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 5: defensive performance in the first leg. So if they're really

414
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,119
Speaker 5: just gonna sit back in there four to four to

415
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,919
Speaker 5: two and be vulnerable to crosses like they were in

416
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 5: the first leg, like Liverpool's definitely gonna get I didn't

417
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 5: at least one on the board. And then you know

418
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 5: again in transition, like what's the one team that you

419
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 5: don't want to see coming at you in transition offense?

420
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 5: It's Real Madrid and it's like a problem for Liverpool

421
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,640
Speaker 5: where they're so good in transition offense, like that's where

422
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 5: they thrive with Sala getting forward and then going at defenses,

423
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 5: but they're so bad in transition deep so it's like

424
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 5: this thing that worked for them and against them as well.

425
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 5: So I don't see I mean, I see this game

426
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 5: becoming very very transitional. And you know we've we've seen

427
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 5: this from Real Madrid in the past where and the

428
00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 5: one that comes to mind was the first leg against

429
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 5: Manchester City in the semi's last last Champions League, where

430
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 5: like City scored like the second minute, but you could

431
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 5: see from the get go like Real Madrid was like,

432
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,160
Speaker 5: we're just gonna play very, very defensive. We're just gonna

433
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 5: try to see this out and try to take advantage

434
00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 5: of our few counter attacking opportunities, and as soon as

435
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 5: City scored, it was like.

436
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 4: Oh crap, all right, we got to come out a

437
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,639
Speaker 4: little bit. We got to try to be more transitional

438
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 4: and you get it going forward, and in this match

439
00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 4: it ended up working out. So I'll probably be on

440
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 4: the over again just to have some fun and we'll

441
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 4: end up watching this be a zero zero draw.

442
00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 2: But that's okay.

443
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 5: But yeah, I I mean, I do project three point

444
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 5: four goals for this match, so I'll probably be on

445
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 5: the over again.

446
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it's a it's a fun game to

447
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 1: back that be square almost in that regard too, right,

448
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 1: because everyone's gonna think it's going to be.

449
00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 2: I think I know how this is going to play out.

450
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:01,400
Speaker 5: I think Liverpool was going to score two early goals

451
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 5: inside like the first thirty minutes, and.

452
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 2: Then everybody's gonna be like, oh my gosh, game.

453
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:10,360
Speaker 1: All yeah, And that's what I'm saying. That's my that's

454
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,040
Speaker 1: my I mean, we just saw it too last month, right,

455
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,400
Speaker 1: But that's my thinking here is that an early goal

456
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 1: from Liverpool gets everyone's juice is flowing, and then Madrid

457
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:24,920
Speaker 1: exposes their weaknesses, which they're set up to do, and

458
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,040
Speaker 1: the game state is kind of built for those weaknesses

459
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 1: to come out too, because they need to go for

460
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 1: broke from minute one. Uh, Anthony, you you were on

461
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 1: Liverpool against Real Madrid in twenty seventeen. You were on

462
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 1: Liverpool against Real Madrid. Last season, you were on Liverpool

463
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 1: against Real Madrid in the first leg. Here, how are

464
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: you gonna do it again? Last week?

465
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 3: Last month? Is my first time betting Liverpool against Real Madrid.

466
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 3: I actually have what about the final? What about I

467
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 3: didn't have them?

468
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,479
Speaker 1: I had one bet this check the tape. I know

469
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 1: you said that you had the vis tape and had Liverpool, and.

470
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought Liverpool was inflated to at that point

471
00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:14,360
Speaker 3: in season. I thought I was worried about them. Anyway.

472
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 3: Now let's talk Liverpool Real Madrid. I want to push

473
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 3: back on this narrative because we talked about the transitions.

474
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 3: But those three goals were not transitional goals that they

475
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 3: scored to take the lead. It was to nil Liverpool.

476
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 3: Liverpool was playing them off the park. They were beating

477
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 3: the ship out of them. They couldn't break the press,

478
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,400
Speaker 3: they couldn't stop anything. Liverpool should have been up three

479
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,920
Speaker 3: by then, and could have been. And then Venetia scores

480
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:40,320
Speaker 3: a nice goal, but it wasn't a counter. It was

481
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 3: like a real move. The second goal was a complete

482
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 3: fluke granted, so was Liverpool's. But Real madrid second goal

483
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:48,679
Speaker 3: was a complete fluke where Venetius like gets in the

484
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 3: way and it hits off his foot and goes into

485
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 3: the goal on a goal back, you know, passed from

486
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 3: Alison to the center back. And then the third goal

487
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 3: was on a set piece. So like, yes, Real Madrid

488
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 3: was extremely efficient. They took all their chance is they

489
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 3: created a bunch of stuff in various different ways and

490
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 3: all the bounces went their way and they won the match.

491
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 3: But like I watched that game and I didn't feel

492
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 3: like Liverpool was particularly worse than Real Madrid. I thought

493
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: they were much better in the first half. The second

494
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 3: half after the goal where Real Madrid went up three

495
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 3: to two off the set piece, You're right, Liverpool definitely

496
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:24,280
Speaker 3: was deflated and fell apart. But like the first forty

497
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 3: five minutes, to me, gives me a belief that Liverpool

498
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 3: is live to turn this. And I know it sounds crazy,

499
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 3: but we just saw it happen. Last year, Chelsea played

500
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 3: Real Madrid in the round of sixteen. Chelsea in the

501
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 3: first leg. I bet Chelsea and they were like a

502
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 3: plus one ten favorite at home and I was like,

503
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 3: they're the better team. They're at home, which is how

504
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 3: I felt about Liverpool, and they had a couple of

505
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 3: bounces and a couple of flukes go against them. Real

506
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 3: Madrid beat them in some transitional moments.

507
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: For sure.

508
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 3: There was a huge Arab defensively. I forget who exactly.

509
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 3: They might have been content, but somebody made a bad

510
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: backpass that led to a goal for Real Madrid and

511
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 3: it was three to one going back to or two nil.

512
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 3: I can't, I can't remember the score. They round two

513
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 3: goals going back to the Burnabou and Chelsea was a

514
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 3: slight underdog on the road at the bernabow down multiple

515
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 3: goals and I said, look, I know you know that.

516
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 3: At that time it was the opposite problem. It was

517
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: we know Chelsea's good defensively, can they score enough? This

518
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 3: time it's we know Liverpool can score a bunch. We

519
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 3: just saw them put seven on Man United when some

520
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 3: bounces went their way. The question is can they keep

521
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 3: them out? Now it's three goals, it's a lot. But

522
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 3: I'm betting them drawn a bet plus one twenty because

523
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: I think they're the better team still, unless I will

524
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 3: bet them at a dog price, and I think the

525
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 3: market is overreacting a little bit to what was a

526
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 3: deserved win in the end. But like I said, the

527
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,440
Speaker 3: goals were so fluky, and like you know, the final

528
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 3: XG was like two to one for Liverpool, so I

529
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 3: just can't get there. So I'm going to bet Liverpool

530
00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,640
Speaker 3: plus one twenty and next seeks.

531
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 1: To get Liverpool fluky though they can't defend.

532
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 3: That that is true. But at sixteen to one, we've seen

533
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,919
Speaker 3: Liverpool score goals and bunches. If they get you know,

534
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 3: one or two early and the pressure starts mounting. I

535
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 3: actually think it works the other way, in the sense

536
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 3: that Real Madrid is not used to being in this

537
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 3: leading position, and the one time they were last year

538
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 3: they blew it. I mean they were down three to nil, sure,

539
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 3: and then and then and then all of a sudden

540
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 3: they came back. So at sixteen to one, I'm gonna

541
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 3: take a shot on the Reds.

542
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: Another one, another one for you, another one for me,

543
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: all right, quickly, Europa League, anything.

544
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 2: For you BJ Yeah.

545
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 5: Sevilla got a nice luck box win against Fenner Boche

546
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 5: that was fun to watch, but I'll be on the

547
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 5: over in that second leg. I know that they are

548
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,959
Speaker 5: only about two expected goals created it. But Finner Basche.

549
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 5: If you know what I think about the Turkey is

550
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 5: Super League is that it's a very very high event

551
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 5: style league. So like Finner Basche's matches are averaging around

552
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 5: three and a half expected goals, and given the honest

553
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 5: that they have to go for this and they have

554
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 5: to play very very open, I think it's going to

555
00:25:57,720 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 5: create a very very open.

556
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 2: Match against the SIVDEP that is still very very bad.

557
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 5: So I do project three point seven goals in that one,

558
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 5: and I think under two over two and a half

559
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,439
Speaker 5: is sitting around minus one ten minus one fifteen, So

560
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 5: I think it's a fantastic price, especially with you know,

561
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 5: the match being very very open and Savilla, I mean

562
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 5: where they at their best is if they can actually

563
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 5: get out in transition. They can't break teams down, we're

564
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 5: gonna play the low boots against them. So I think

565
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,760
Speaker 5: it's a good match up here for Finnabach and your

566
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 5: guy Andner Valencia and Michael to maybe get on to

567
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 5: the one in the back of the net. So finebouche

568
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 5: Savia over two and a half.

569
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: For me En should have won the Golden boot.

570
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 5: He is in the goal leading the Golden Boot in Turkey,

571
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 5: though right now.

572
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: Is Antony anything Europe the league?

573
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be looking at some both teams to score.

574
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,719
Speaker 3: Arsenal Sporting I think we see it. I think we

575
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 3: see another potentially rotated team for Arsenal, and they were

576
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 3: alarmingly bad defensively in that match. They got they had

577
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: their way with the Sporting defense. I mean they deserve

578
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 3: multiple goals in the end, and to too, I think

579
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 3: was a fair result. But going home, I'll be looking

580
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 3: to play Sporting the score. I do think they'll struggle

581
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: to keep Arsenal out. I think Arsenal ultimately will advance,

582
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 3: much to their chagrin of Arsenal fans. I think if

583
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 3: they should go out, but if they were in out,

584
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 3: how that worked for Liverpool anyway? Obviously it's very different.

585
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 3: But I will also be betting Fenerbacci at home. I agree.

586
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 3: I mean they dominated the first leg. I took a

587
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 3: live shot on them. Once they went down a goal,

588
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 3: they didn't quite get there. They're down two on aggregate.

589
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: They can come home win this match and still not advance.

590
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 3: It's kind of similar to what Seville and PSV did

591
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 3: last round, where Sevilla won the home match and then

592
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 3: kind of just kind of no showed and gave a

593
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 3: couple of goals up but never was in doubt of losing.

594
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 3: I think it's a similar situation here. I'm going to

595
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 3: take Fenerbacci. Wouldn't be shocked if they turned it. I

596
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 3: do think they're just as good in terms of true talent.

597
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 3: So two goals not a huge deficit, but at plus

598
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 3: one thirty at home, I love Fenerbacci all right.

599
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,719
Speaker 1: There are two Premier League matches we'll quickly go through

600
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 1: Antony and I have nothing on either of them. Brighton's

601
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: my twenty five against Crystal Palace seven to one. The

602
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: draws plus three thirty three Southampton at home hosting Brentford.

603
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: Woof tough, tough loss for them. I could us in

604
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 1: Park over the weekend. Brentford's plus one fifty to get

605
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: back on track and the draw is plus two twenty five.

606
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: J anything on either of these.

607
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,879
Speaker 5: I mean I'll probably be on Brighton minus one against

608
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 5: Crystal Palace. So Crystal Palace they don't have a shot

609
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 5: on target in their last three matches, which is very

610
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 5: very concerning for them. I and Brighton looked every bit

611
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 5: as good against them in the last meeting. And the

612
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 5: funny thing is we mentioned this in the last meeting,

613
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 5: where you might look at the XG and you say, okay,

614
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 5: it was you know, Brighton still created two expected goals,

615
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 5: Crystal Palace did create over one, but zero point eight

616
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 5: three of the house on Robert Sanchez just completely dropping

617
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 5: across and Chris Palace putting the ball in the back

618
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 5: of the that they did absolutely nothing for the remainder

619
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 5: of that match. And that was at home at Selhurst Parks.

620
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:53,959
Speaker 5: And now we're going back to the MX where Brighton

621
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 5: is fantastic. This is Darby as we all know. So

622
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 5: I love Brighton minus one. I project them at minus

623
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 5: two seventy two and they're spread at minus one point seven,

624
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 5: so I'll be on the minus one against them, and

625
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 5: I project Brentford in Southampton pretty close onto what the

626
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 5: actual number is right.

627
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 1: Now, lovely all right? That does it for this episode

628
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: of Wonder Goal for Anthony Debundo and BJ Kunningham. I'm

629
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 1: Michael Lebuff. We will see you again on Thursday morning

630
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 1: to preview the rest or or a new weekend in

631
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: Premier League season, and then an international break comes our way.

632
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets this weekend, except for

633
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: Anthony's Liverpool.

634
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 3: Bet Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

635
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 3: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

636
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 3: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

637
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Speaker 3: Gambler