1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,599 Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here. 2 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, 3 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for 4 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 2: the future of the show. 5 00:00:08,880 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest 6 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:13,239 Speaker 1: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does 7 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else. 8 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please 9 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and 10 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 2: you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, 11 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:25,600 Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. 12 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent 13 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints 14 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:35,240 Speaker 1: dot com. All right, let's get to media. Wanted to 15 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: make sure we covered this important story. It's genuinely crazy 16 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: some of the details. Let's put this up there on 17 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:45,080 Speaker 1: the screen. So ABC News has agreed to pay fifteen 18 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:50,239 Speaker 1: million dollars to Donald Trump's presidential library to settle a 19 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:54,920 Speaker 1: defamation lawsuit. So the reason why this is so extraordinary 20 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: is that it almost never happens that you have defamation 21 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: lawsuits which are settled involving public officials. The reason why 22 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: is that the bar is so incredibly high to prove 23 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:13,959 Speaker 1: defamation Nonetheless, ABC News agreed to this settlement on Saturday 24 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:19,760 Speaker 1: after a quote unquote statement by George Stefanopolis that happened 25 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 1: on ABC News some months ago with respect to the 26 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: Egene Carrol case. Now, if you look actually into the details, 27 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: the settlement came right before there was a deposition that 28 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: was going to go through as well as discovery, which 29 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: would have required Stephanopolis turning over all of his emails, 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: deposition of all the people that were involved in the segment. Now, 31 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: the reason why, again I think it's just so crazy 32 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: is the fact that it even got to the deposition 33 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: phase is extraordinary. Almost in every other one of these 34 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: defamation cases it's thrown out, which means that the Trump 35 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: people had to rise to a bar where they all 36 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: at least we're able to say to a judge that 37 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: they could realistically prove malicious intent on behalf of Stephanoppolos. 38 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: So again, I know this is complicated and just in 39 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:15,480 Speaker 1: plain speak as public as commentators here, whenever we're talking 40 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 1: about anybody who is a public official, especially an elected official, 41 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: for them to prove defamation against us, they have to 42 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 1: prove that not only did what we say was wrong, 43 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: but that we knew it was wrong when we said it, 44 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: and that we knew we were doing so specifically to 45 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: harm the reputation of that individual. 46 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 2: A slip of the tongue, right, or a slight miscap 47 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 2: which what he said was only a slight mischaracterization of 48 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 2: the truth. Like that is not sufficient unless you can 49 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 2: prove what's called actual. 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: Malice, exactly actual malice, which is I mean again, unless 51 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:51,320 Speaker 1: you basically have it in writing and be like, hey. 52 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 2: I'm going Trump and I say that he met someone. 53 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 1: So it's like if I text you it was like, hey, 54 00:02:57,120 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: screw Donald Trump, I'm going to go on the show 55 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: and say today X Y and Z, even though I 56 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 1: know X Y and Z is false, that that is 57 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: what they mostly need to destroy you. And yet they 58 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: decided to settle. So two options. Either they're afraid and 59 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: they decided to pay them off, or it was true. 60 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: I'm starting to get to the point where at least 61 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 1: in terms of what they had, it must have been bad, 62 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: because you know, to pay fifteen million dollars to a 63 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: public official as a news organization is crazy. You're supposed 64 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: to fight this thing to the bitterest end to make 65 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: sure that there is so I think I think you 66 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: might have been guilty honestly because there's no other reason, 67 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: or they're just afraid. But I mean, even when we 68 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: think about quote unquote afraid, I mean think about the 69 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: precedent that's being set here for defamation. That's no, that's right. 70 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: That's why they must there's something in those emails that 71 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: they don't ever want them. 72 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 2: Whatever you think about this case, et cetera. And just 73 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 2: let me just lay out what he said and what 74 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 2: the truth is, because it shows you how sort of 75 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 2: like nitpicky this is, and how it's an easy miss 76 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 2: characterization for people to make. And I'm quite confident that 77 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 2: George Defnopolis, by the way, was not the only person 78 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 2: who is characterized it this way. So he said that 79 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 2: a jury in a civil case found Donald Trump liable 80 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 2: for rape and defamation. Okay, in reality, based on the 81 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 2: New York state law at that time, the jury found 82 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 2: him liable for sexual assault but not rape. Now, it 83 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 2: would have met the definition of rape at the federal level, 84 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,479 Speaker 2: it would have met the definition of actually the newly 85 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 2: revised definition of rape at the New York state level, 86 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 2: but did not technically meet that definition at the time. 87 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 2: So if he had been one hundred percent accurate with 88 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 2: the legal standards, he would have said sexual assault and 89 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 2: not rape. But you see how like how close that is, right, 90 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 2: And so yeah, the assumption from anybody would be that 91 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,039 Speaker 2: in a defamation case, when you're considering that this is 92 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 2: a public figure, when you're considering that even the judge 93 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 2: in this case said that it would have by this 94 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 2: sort of like colloquial parlance, met the definition of rape, 95 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 2: just not by the technical New York standard, you would 96 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 2: assume that this would be something that they would fight 97 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 2: and that they would ultimately be victorious because the bar 98 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: is so incredibly high now yours. I think you're right 99 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 2: that there are two choices here. Number one is that 100 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: they had something in Stephanoppolos's emails that was just absolutely terrible, 101 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: that they didn't want to come out. 102 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: Worth fifteen million bucks his annual salary, that they didn't 103 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 1: want to come. 104 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 2: And that they're contributing now to the Donald J. Trump 105 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 2: Presidential Library, which also looks disgusting. But anyway, either that 106 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 2: and or they are afraid of being at odds with 107 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. And I tend to put more stock into 108 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 2: that one, because if you think about it. I mean, 109 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:47,919 Speaker 2: Trump has been quite outspoken and many of his allies 110 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: quite outspoken about how they want to go up against 111 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 2: their media critics, how they want retribution against their media critics, 112 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 2: Steve Bannon going on and threatening Ari Melburn with some 113 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 2: sort of investigation, imprisonment, et cetera, et cetera. So I 114 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 2: don't think that they want to be I think this 115 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 2: could very well be another example. Basically, like Joe and 116 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 2: Mika making their truck down tomorrow lago, they don't want 117 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 2: to be at war with incoming Donald Trump administration. Not 118 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 2: only are they fearful, but they also feel like they'll 119 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 2: be the target of attacks, whether it's some sort of 120 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 2: investigation or just Donald Trump's verbal attacks. They'll be subject 121 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 2: to that, they'll lose whatever access they have to the 122 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 2: White House, and it will impinge on their ability to 123 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 2: like break stories and do their whole thing. And so 124 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 2: I think that there's a good likelihood as well that 125 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:38,359 Speaker 2: they just were fearful of going into this administration actively 126 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 2: at war and in this legal battle with Donald J. 127 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 3: Trump. 128 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 2: I personally think that that's it could be a little 129 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: bit of both, but to me, that's the more likely 130 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 2: explanation of what's going on here. 131 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: Look, yeah, like you said, it could be all of 132 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: the above. I think I don't know. I think to 133 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: pay somebody a public official as the president fifteen million 134 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 1: bucks is nuts for any news organization. So I think 135 00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: the only alternative is I think there was just something 136 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:05,760 Speaker 1: going on in those emails. I just don't think there's 137 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: another explanation. There must have been some discussion that either 138 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: related to him being informed that he was misspeaking, or 139 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: maybe they could have proved that somebody was in his 140 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: ear at the time and he had spoken differently. Again, like, 141 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: these are all speculations, but the idea that you would 142 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: pay off as an incoming president for some of Stephanopoulos's 143 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: yearly salary shows extraordinary capitulation or extraordinarily liability. 144 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 2: And in either case it is extraordinary capitulation. Whether it's 145 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,040 Speaker 2: out of fear or because there's something that's damaging in 146 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 2: Stephanopolis's Like, either way, it is extraordinary capitulation because it 147 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 2: does set a damning precedent for just you know, freedom 148 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 2: of the press. And as I said before, like this 149 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 2: was a very minor mischaracterization of what the civil jury 150 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 2: actually found Trump liable. For and so for them to 151 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 2: just like bend the knee on this is really crazy 152 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 2: and it does set, frankly, a scary precedent. We have 153 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 2: put T three up on the screen, which had some 154 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 2: of the reaction online to this, mostly from liberals who 155 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 2: were really obsessed, with a lot of US journalists too, Yeah, 156 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 2: journalists and liberals and prosecutors too, who were confused by 157 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 2: this direction. So you had Norm Ornstein who said, add 158 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 2: ABC to the basket of cowards in our media. Democratic 159 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 2: attorney Mark Eliots wrote me bent ring kissed and the 160 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 2: legacy news outlets chooses obedience. Reporter Oliver Willis chimed in 161 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 2: saying this is actually how democracy dies. Tech reporter Matt 162 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 2: Novak said, not good for the rest of us when 163 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 2: you do this shit, ABC, But that's probably half the 164 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: point from management's perspective. 165 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 1: Drewe. 166 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 2: Former prosecutor Joyce Van said, I'm old enough to remember 167 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 2: to have worked on cases where newspapers vigorously defended themselves 168 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 2: against defamation cases instead of folding before the defendant was 169 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 2: even deposed. So again, quite a significant reaction to this, 170 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 2: and I do think it is a significant development and 171 00:08:59,040 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 2: quite surprise. 172 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 1: I was shocked to see it. 173 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 2: Yes, actually, once I read the details of what the 174 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 2: allegations were, the. 175 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,000 Speaker 1: Only option is the insurance company told them to settle. 176 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: That's it. So I previously because I studied actually some 177 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: defamation cases. This is a case like many years ago 178 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 1: involving what's his name to catch a predator guy Chris Hansen. Yeah, 179 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 1: Chris Hansen. There was a whole defamation case that was 180 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 1: against him. The insurance company, I believe, forced him to settle. 181 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 1: He's spoken out against it and he's like, I never 182 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: should have settled. He's like, I didn't agree with settling it, 183 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 1: but the insurance company forced basically NBC News to settle. 184 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: I guess that could be a theory. But you know, 185 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: in this case, at the very least, Stephanopolis and others 186 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: have not come out and said this was an insurance decision, 187 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: you know, because even at that time the NBC was 188 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: significantly criticized for settling that case that involved I forget 189 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: exactly what it was, either defamation or wrongful dat or 190 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: something like that was involved. It was a crazy case, 191 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: by the way you're going. 192 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 2: You know, it's also interesting, so there were also forced 193 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,319 Speaker 2: to a pen an editor's note to the article about 194 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 2: like thing or whatever, and the editor's note is very nonspecific. 195 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 2: It says something just like ABC News regrets some of 196 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 2: the statements made by George Stefanopolis in the segment that's it. 197 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: It's like, really, it might be why as well, because 198 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 1: that's another thing people don't understand is that you have 199 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 1: to have recourse. So what happens is that Trump people 200 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: could reach out to you and they could say, hey, 201 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: we're going to sue you for defamation unless you issue correction. 202 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: So maybe they refuse to issue a correction. 203 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 2: Well, the editor's note was part of this. 204 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 1: Part of the settlement, so they never issue Weird. 205 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 2: It was I don't think. I don't know that I'm 206 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 2: not sure about, but it was weird to me that 207 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 2: the language was so like non general and nonspecific and 208 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 2: wasn't like the you know, George Defnopolis was wrong when 209 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 2: he said. 210 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: Blah blah blah. 211 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 2: Anyway, it is weird. 212 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: If you work at ABC, let us know because I 213 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 1: want to know more about this. Yeah, well, reach out 214 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: to Ken, reach out to me. Listen. I'll publish anything. 215 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 1: I'll publish whatever you guys want, as long as it's true, Crystal, 216 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,080 Speaker 1: what are you taking a look at? Well, I'll ask 217 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:58,160 Speaker 1: you one last question. 218 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 4: You don't like bitcoin, You wouldn't invest in bitcoin? 219 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 2: Do you invest in the stock market at this moment? 220 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: So? Not? 221 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 4: At this moment, I think it's high. So I have 222 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 4: not invested in the stock market at this moment. I 223 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:14,680 Speaker 4: have in the past, but I have not at this moment. 224 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 4: I think it's high. A bitcoin, it just seems like 225 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 4: a scam. I was surprised, you know, with us it 226 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 4: was at six thousand and much lower. I don't like 227 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 4: it because it's another currency competing against the dollar. Essentially, 228 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 4: it's the currency competing against the dollar. I want the 229 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 4: dollar to be the currency of the world. That's what 230 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 4: I've always said. 231 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 2: So that was former President Trump in twenty twenty one 232 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 2: telling Fox Business that bitcoin seems like a scam and 233 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,079 Speaker 2: voicing concern it could undermine the dollar. Min what a 234 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:50,319 Speaker 2: little time a few hundred million dollars in campaign contributions 235 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 2: can do to change your mind. Because now, after receiving 236 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 2: the backing of a bunch of crypto aligned billionaires and 237 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 2: wealthy individuals, including Elon Musk, Trump is backing a plan 238 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,920 Speaker 2: to funnel Smerican taxpayer assets into a scheme to further 239 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 2: enrich his coterie of oligarchs through a strategic bitcoin reserve. 240 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 2: In a conversation with Jim Kramer and the New York 241 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 2: Stock Exchange, Trump recently confirmed that plan to throw the 242 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 2: way to the US government behind bitcoin, placing the volatile 243 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,599 Speaker 2: speculative asset on the same level as gold and as oil. 244 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 2: So how exactly would this all work will centtor Cynthia Loomis, 245 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 2: her self a significant bitcoin investor, has become crypto's top 246 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 2: proponent in Washington, has sketched out potential details. Basically, in 247 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 2: her view, they could pull some creative accounting with the 248 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 2: nation's gold reserves. Those reserves would be marked to current 249 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 2: market value. The resulting paper gains would be used to 250 00:12:39,559 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 2: finance bulk bitcoin purchases to the tune of two hundred 251 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 2: thousand a year for five straight years. As the Financial 252 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 2: Times explains today, the US government's gold is valued a 253 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 2: book cost of forty two dollars and twenty two cents 254 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 2: an ounce, making it worth eleven billion dollars. At current 255 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:58,959 Speaker 2: market prices, it would be worth over six hundred and 256 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 2: fifty billion dollars. So if we've understood correctly, federal reserve 257 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,839 Speaker 2: banks would be required to remit around six hundred and 258 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,680 Speaker 2: forty billion dollars the US Treasury, and the Treasury could 259 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 2: use those funds to buy bitcoin. Now, this is, on 260 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 2: its face, a plan for extraordinary plundering of the public purse, 261 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 2: which would result in perhaps the largest upward transfer of 262 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 2: wealth in history. 263 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 1: Given that it. 264 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 2: Would primarily be a handful of bitcoin whales oo stand 265 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 2: to benefit. Because as unequal as our normal financial system is, 266 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 2: and it is plenty unequal, the crypto world is vastly 267 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:35,200 Speaker 2: more unequal. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, 268 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 2: the top point oh one percent of bitcoin holders control 269 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 2: twenty seven percent of all bitcoin and circulation. The top 270 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 2: two percent of all wallets hold over ninety percent of 271 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 2: all bitcoin. South Africa, which is considered the most unequal 272 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 2: country in the world and has a Genie coefficient of 273 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 2: somewhere around point sixty three that pales in comparison to 274 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 2: that of bitcoin, which is estimated to be around point 275 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 2: eighty eight. Now, the presence of a small group of 276 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,720 Speaker 2: whales means, of course, that a handful of megal wealthy 277 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 2: investors stands to benefit from the US government showing up 278 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 2: with a virtually unlimited checkbook to buy up bitcoin. And 279 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 2: it also means that the price of bitcoin, which has 280 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,280 Speaker 2: little actual value except as a high tech poker chip, 281 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 2: can be easily manipulated by a relatively small group of people. 282 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 2: Doesn't seem to me like we should be funneling trillions 283 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,239 Speaker 2: into an asset that can be easily and maliciously manipulated. 284 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 2: Now you may have heard the crypto libertarian propaganda that 285 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 2: the great thing about these coins that they fly free 286 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 2: of any government manipulation, that they represent some kind of 287 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 2: new financial frontier, wild West fortune favors the brave, all 288 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 2: of that. So you might wonder why these bitcoin whales 289 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 2: would want Uncle sam meddling in their libertarian frontier currency. 290 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 2: Was Ryan Cooper at The American Prospect explains. The truth 291 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 2: is these crypto whales have a pretty major issue on 292 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 2: their hands, which is, quote, the bitcoin market is exceptionally 293 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 2: a liquid The last twenty four hours so roughly a 294 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 2: piddling six hundred and sixty thousand transactions in bitcoin and 295 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 2: something like seventy percent a bitcoin have not moved at 296 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 2: all in at least a year. That is made worse 297 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 2: by how expensive and slow bitcoin transactions are. By way 298 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 2: of comparison, Amazon, which has a similar market capitalization, has 299 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 2: seen about forty million daily trades of its stocks over 300 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 2: the last few days. As Ryan goes on to explain, 301 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 2: that means that in order for large bagholders to cash 302 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 2: out without totally crashing the market, they would have to 303 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 2: lure an unfathomably large number of new crypto suckers into 304 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: what is, at bottom, a giant Ponzi scheme. So they 305 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 2: came up with a much easier plan, which was to 306 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 2: funnel hundreds of millions of dollars into Trump's campaign, along 307 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 2: with many other Washington politicians besides of both parties, so 308 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 2: that all US taxpayers could be conscripted into the role of, 309 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 2: in Ryan's words, sacrificial lambs to a digital asset slaughterhouse. Effectively, 310 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 2: the US taxpayer will be forced to serve as the 311 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 2: useful idiot, the hapless bottom tier of the pyramid scheme, 312 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 2: allowing the whales to convert their illiquid digital tokens into 313 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 2: cold hard cash while we get stuck with the bill. Now, 314 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 2: this olive arch thievery is only the beginning of the 315 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 2: problems with the idea. However, a bitcoin strategic reserve means 316 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:09,400 Speaker 2: funneling trillions into a famously volatile asset. In twenty twenty 317 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 2: one alone, bitcoin surge from thirty thousand dollars a coin 318 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 2: to sixty nine thousand dollars a coin, before crashing back 319 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 2: down to thirty thousand dollars. The idea of setting up 320 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: a strategic reserve with an asset that can lose half 321 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: its value in a matter of weeks is truly insane 322 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 2: and contrary to bitcoin lore that it could serve as 323 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 2: a significant store of value, function and effect as a currency. 324 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 2: In reality, it has been nothing more than a speculative 325 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 2: and non productive asset. Somewhere around twenty percent of the 326 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 2: whole market has been lost for good. The primary use 327 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 2: outside of speculation appears to be mostly for money laundering, 328 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 2: drug dealing, and human trafficking. Why should the US government 329 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 2: spend real money on a digital casino instead of I 330 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 2: don't know, healthcare, education, infrastructure. The amount of risk involved 331 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 2: is honestly wild, and to be truthful, it's only escalating. 332 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 2: In fact, the advance of quantum computers has raised concerns 333 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 2: among crypto enthusiasts that these unfathomably powerful computers could be 334 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 2: used to crack the blockchain encryption on which cryptosecurity relies. Google, 335 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 2: you may have heard this, recently announced that its quantum 336 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,680 Speaker 2: computer Willow, successfully completed a problem that would take current 337 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 2: supercomputers four years to solve than the entire age of 338 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 2: the universe. That breakthrough a loan created enough fear in 339 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 2: the crypto markets that it sparked a one point seven 340 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 2: billion dollar digital asset selloff. There's also a risk that, 341 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 2: is technology advances, bitcoin just simply becomes obsolete, surpassed by 342 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 2: superior technologies that evolve in the space, effectively rendering this 343 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 2: particular scheme worthless. After all, there is nothing particularly special 344 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 2: or durable about Bitcoin was just the first mover in 345 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 2: the field and is the most well known. Think of 346 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 2: it this way, of all the things the government could buy, 347 00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 2: of all the prices it could artificially boost, which is 348 00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,120 Speaker 2: what this is, there is no good reason to pick 349 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 2: bitcoin outside of a desire to funnel trillions to your 350 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 2: campaign supporters. So basically, a bitcoin strategic reserve is a 351 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 2: world historic billionaire giveaway. Puts trillions of taxpayer dollars at risk, 352 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 2: and unlike reserves of physical goods, which can be kept 353 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 2: secure through physical security runs the risk of outright theft from. 354 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: High tech hackers. 355 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 2: What could possibly go wrong? As if that isn't enough, 356 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 2: creating a bitcoin strategic reserve is a massive step towards 357 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 2: further integrating bitcoin into the regular financial system, and this 358 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 2: is one of the major product projects of the incoming 359 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 2: Trump administration, based on his statements and based on staffing decisions, 360 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:24,159 Speaker 2: a project that federal regulators in two new reports are 361 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 2: already sounding the alarm over so the Federal Reserve Bank 362 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 2: of New York. They are warning that the increasingly common 363 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 2: use of loans to finance crypto purchases has created a 364 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,639 Speaker 2: lot of exposure throughout the entire financial system. Meanwhile, the 365 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 2: Office of Financial Research, another government agency, found a link 366 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 2: between crypto holdings and home and auto loans, in indication 367 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 2: that low income households are using crypto gains to take 368 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:51,040 Speaker 2: out larger mortgages and finance more expensive cars, situation that 369 00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 2: again could lead to disaster in the event of another 370 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 2: crypto crash. Previous downturns, that damage was pretty relatively limited, 371 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,439 Speaker 2: relatively contained to just a few uniquely vulnerable banks and 372 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 2: of course the crypto holders themselves. Next time it could 373 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 2: be much more like the cascade effect that we all 374 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,440 Speaker 2: move through back in two thousand and eight. In contrary 375 00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 2: to libertarian propaganda, the crypto industry's goal in Washington is 376 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 2: to join the big Wall Street players, and being too 377 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 2: big to fail, they look set to get their wish 378 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: based on Trump administration picks. SEC chair currently is Gary Gensler, 379 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 2: He's been serious about regulating crypto while he is out. Instead, 380 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 2: Trump has picked Paul Atkins, a crypto booster who blamed 381 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 2: US regulators for ftx's collapse. Instead of you know, brazen fraud. 382 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 2: For Treasury, Trump picked Howard Lutnick. He's another crypto friendly 383 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 2: type whose firm has been a leader in allowing clients 384 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 2: to use bitcoin as collateral for loans, and Trump's aion 385 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 2: cryptos are David Sachs is part of the PayPal mafia 386 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 2: who believes that crypto will fulfill PayPal's desire to create 387 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 2: the quote new world currency. Strange goal, I would say 388 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 2: for an administration that is supposed to be America first, 389 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:53,920 Speaker 2: And indeed, the use case that actually makes the most 390 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 2: sense to be for a crypto reserve is not for 391 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 2: the US, but for countries around the world. Who would 392 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 2: like to undermine US dollar head domeny and evade sanctions. 393 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 2: In fact, that is exactly what is fueling Putin's current 394 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 2: interest in bitcoin, and is the concern Trump was gesturing 395 00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 2: at when he originally called crypto a scam to undermine 396 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 2: the dollar. But for us, there seems to be nothing 397 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 2: resembling a reasonable rationale. It's just all a smash and 398 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,760 Speaker 2: grab operation to loot the public purse and further enrich 399 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 2: the already wealthy so Sager Strategic Bitcoin Reserve program. 400 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: And if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, 401 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. Very 402 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 1: excited now to be joined by Scott Horton. He's the 403 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,680 Speaker 1: author of an incredible new book. Let's put that beautiful 404 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: book jacket up there on the screen. What have we 405 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 1: got provoked? How Washington started the new Cold War with 406 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 1: Russia and the catastrophe in Ukraine. And even just looking 407 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: at this book, at this tome, I would say in 408 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 1: a good way, because it's extremely well researched and so detailed. 409 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 1: We have quotes up at the top. The most important 410 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: one to me is detailed by Professor John Meersheimer a 411 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,400 Speaker 1: personal hero of mine as long as as well as 412 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,040 Speaker 1: Scott now because of so much of his work. So Scott, 413 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. 414 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,640 Speaker 3: We appreciate you, very happy to be here. Good morning 415 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 3: to both of you. 416 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 1: Morning. And so Scott, tell us a little bit about 417 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,199 Speaker 1: what inspired the book with the War in Ukraine, but 418 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: why you decided to put it out now, and in 419 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 1: particular some of the background in the history that a 420 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 1: lot of the American public may be unaware of whenever 421 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: it comes to the War in Ukraine. 422 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 5: Well, you know, I've been doing radio since ninety eight, 423 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:31,960 Speaker 5: and I've been working with anti war dot Com since 424 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 5: about two thousand and four. And so just like with 425 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 5: my previous book enough already on the Middle East Wars, 426 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 5: and now with this one, I think what I bring 427 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 5: in terms of comparative advantage is just that I'm so 428 00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 5: old now and I've been doing this for so long 429 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 5: in a row that I have continuity in the story. 430 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 5: I can tell the story all the way through, and 431 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 5: so a lot of times you can find some really 432 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 5: good commentary about different aspects of it. But I wanted 433 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:58,879 Speaker 5: to take you from hw Bush and the end of 434 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 5: the Last Cold war and show essentially how American imperial 435 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 5: hubris led us straight to the path of future confrontation 436 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 5: with the Russian Federation and were really amounted to a 437 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 5: self fulfilling prophecy since the very same people who did 438 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 5: it were the very same people who warned what would 439 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 5: happen if they were allowed to do what they wanted 440 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 5: to do. 441 00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: Yeah. 442 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 2: Well, the book title itself is a rebuke of the 443 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 2: media coverage in the narrative that has been provided to 444 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 2: the American people that this invasion from Russia just came 445 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 2: out of nowhere. It was quote unquote unprovoked. Give us 446 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 2: some of the highlights. Obviously, it's a lengthy book and 447 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 2: people need to read it to understand the full picture. 448 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 2: But give us some of the milestones on the road 449 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 2: to this quote unquote unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. 450 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 5: Okay, Well, first of all, at the end of the 451 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 5: last Cold War, the Americans knew they were lying. I mean, 452 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 5: I really thought it was Bill Clinton, but it really 453 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,720 Speaker 5: was George H. W. Bush and his team. Before Bill 454 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 5: Clinton ever came to town. They were telling the Russians 455 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,679 Speaker 5: what they needed to hear to get them to acquiesce 456 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 5: to American plans. While all along they were planning on 457 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 5: expanding the NATO military alliance into Eastern Europe. They told 458 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 5: the Russians and look, we're going to have We're going 459 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 5: to use what had already existed since seventy five, the 460 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 5: Conference on Security and Cooperation Europe now known as the 461 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:17,359 Speaker 5: Organization the OSSEE. We're going to use that, and we 462 00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 5: won't have an alliance anymore because there's no enemy. So 463 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 5: we'll have a security partnership and you and Ukraine and 464 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 5: the rest will all be members of it together with us. 465 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,680 Speaker 3: And so this was the promise. 466 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,159 Speaker 5: And you know, as long as NATO was a military alliance, 467 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:33,199 Speaker 5: they promised not to expand to east. And I know 468 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 5: that's disputed, but I'm right about it. And you can 469 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,159 Speaker 5: check my notes in the book and see the argument. 470 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I've gone through I've gone through it as well. Yeah, no, continue, continue, 471 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 1: you're absolutely though so. 472 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 5: And then in the Bill Clinton years, you had the 473 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 5: shock therapy economic policy, you had the Balkan wars in 474 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,119 Speaker 5: Bosnia and in Kosovo, and then you had the NATO 475 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 5: expansion and really was I think three weeks after the 476 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 5: ink was dry on the new NATO expansion Treaty, they 477 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 5: launched the war against Serbia, which was over Russia's dead body. 478 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 3: Basically Boris Yeltsen. 479 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 5: His entire government had a fit over it, but there 480 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,399 Speaker 5: was essentially nothing they could do about it. Then w 481 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 5: Bush comes to town, and you know, Putin is new too. 482 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 5: Putin's been in power for a year. Bush is also 483 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 5: brand new, and so they sort of try to do 484 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 5: a reset. 485 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 3: Putin calls Bush. 486 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 5: He's the first foreign leader called Bush on September eleventh, 487 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:27,440 Speaker 5: But just a couple of months later, Bush tears up 488 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 5: the for me, the Anti Ballistic Missletry, the ABM Treaty, 489 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 5: and in effect also tore up the start to Treaty, 490 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,479 Speaker 5: which hadn't been ratified yet but was in process, and 491 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 5: that start to Treaty, his father's treaty would have banned 492 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,360 Speaker 5: multiple independently targetable re entry vehicles, which matters a lot, 493 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 5: but anyway. Bush also did the Color Code of revolutions 494 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 5: and including over through the government of Ukraine in two 495 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 5: thousand and four and in two thousand and eight, over 496 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 5: the best advice of all of not just the Foreign 497 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 5: policy establishment but his own government, the National Security Council, 498 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 5: the CIA, the Ambassador, and all of his staff at 499 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 5: the embassy in Moscow, and even the Secretary of State 500 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 5: and Secretary of Defense Rice and Gates all told Bush 501 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,639 Speaker 5: not to do it, or at least I don't know 502 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 5: what Rice and Gates told him, but they certainly agreed 503 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:21,639 Speaker 5: that it was a bad idea to do it. 504 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 3: And we all know, we should know. 505 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 5: Everyone should find at WikiLeaks the yet means yet memo 506 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:29,919 Speaker 5: by our current CIA director William Burns, who was then 507 00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 5: w Bush's ambassador to Russia, warning Rice why not to 508 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 5: offer NATO membership to Ukraine. And by the way, this 509 00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 5: whole time, even the expansionist hawks, never mind, you know, 510 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 5: libertarian non interventionists like me or Ron Paul or something 511 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 5: like that, but even people like Brazinski and Kissinger, who 512 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 5: were out front in pushing foreign NATO expansion, had always 513 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 5: said all along, well, of course, we'll have to make 514 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 5: a special case for Ukraine. We'll have to ensconce permanent 515 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 5: neutrality for Ukraine. Will have to come up with the 516 00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 5: Vienna Austria option or you know, the Finland option for 517 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 5: neutrality for Ukraine, just like we had in the last 518 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,440 Speaker 5: Cold War to prevent not like we had for Ukraine, 519 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 5: but like we had for Austria and Finland in the 520 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 5: last Cold War in order to prevent a fight over it, 521 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 5: because the country is so crucial to Russia, and even 522 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 5: though so many of the people, especially in the west 523 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 5: of the country really want out from under Russia's domination 524 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 5: and would rather move west. So instead of having a 525 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,880 Speaker 5: fight to the death over it, we should compromise upfront. 526 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 3: But then they never did that. They never followed through. 527 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 5: Then Bush also did the anti ballistic missile systems in 528 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:33,240 Speaker 5: Romanian Poland. 529 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:34,439 Speaker 3: Now this sounds fine. 530 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:37,080 Speaker 5: I don't care if my government has anti ballistic missiles 531 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 5: all day, right, what's the problem? It sept that there 532 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,040 Speaker 5: was a reason that Nixon tried to get this treaty 533 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 5: done in the first place, and did get it done 534 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 5: in the first place, was because it's just arms racing. 535 00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 5: The more anti ballistic missiles you make, the more missiles 536 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,880 Speaker 5: I make, and vice versa the other way. At that time, 537 00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,159 Speaker 5: we already had tens of thousands of h bombs and 538 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 5: ICBMs on each side. There's no point in continuing to escalate. 539 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,679 Speaker 5: And as we can see, when Bush installed the anti 540 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 5: ballistic missile systems, the Russians just increased their number of 541 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 5: offensive missiles. Rather than try to reciprocate with their own 542 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 5: super expensive and unworkable design, they just made more offensive missiles. 543 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 5: But there's another problem, which is their launched from dual 544 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 5: use launchers, the MK forty one or the Mark forty 545 00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 5: one missile launcher, which can also host Tomahawk cruise missiles, 546 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,560 Speaker 5: which can be tipped with hydrogen bombs. And this is 547 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:28,440 Speaker 5: of course in violation of Bill Clinton's promises in the 548 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,719 Speaker 5: Founding Act of nineteen ninety seven, where he said, yes, 549 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 5: we're going to expand NATO further east, but we promise 550 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 5: not to move our military equipment in there. 551 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 3: But then he did anyway. 552 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 5: Oh, I said substantial, and I don't count this as substantial, 553 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 5: he said. But this is a real problem because it 554 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,520 Speaker 5: was in essence tearing up the inf Treaty, or at 555 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,360 Speaker 5: least violating the spirit of it and putting it in jeopardy. 556 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 5: And this was Ronald Reagan's Great Treaty from nineteen eighty 557 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,800 Speaker 5: seven that kept all short and medium range missiles out 558 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:55,400 Speaker 5: of Europe. 559 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 3: We saw nuclear. 560 00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 5: Bombs there, but only air delivered airplane delivered bomb. We 561 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 5: have no nuclear missiles in Europe, and that could change 562 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 5: now because the inf Treaty is dead, and it was 563 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,880 Speaker 5: actually Donald Trump who finally tore it up his last 564 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,280 Speaker 5: year in office. Then Barack Obama comes in, and there's 565 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,159 Speaker 5: a lot to it. Of course, the war in Libya 566 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,920 Speaker 5: is a huge one, another aggressive war by NATO, going 567 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,240 Speaker 5: around the UN Security Council again to do that. But 568 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,480 Speaker 5: the worst thing of it all was the Maidan Revolution, 569 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 5: the so called Revolution of Dignity in twenty fourteen. And 570 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 5: people say, oh, you're denying the agency of the people 571 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 5: on the ground. Well, look, I mean the reality is 572 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 5: Ukraine is a small, poor country and America is the 573 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 5: global superpower. So when the Empire drops a few tens 574 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 5: or hundreds of millions of dollars into your protest movement, 575 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 5: that makes all the difference. 576 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 3: Just imagine for. 577 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 5: One moment the occupy movement of a decade ago or 578 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,800 Speaker 5: January sixth, only now you have Chinese or Russian agents 579 00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 5: out there with, you know, supplying. Not just everybody focuses 580 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 5: on the sandwiches and cookies. It's not that new one 581 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 5: was there passing out cookies. It's that what was she 582 00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 5: doing there at all? She was there blatantly supporting the 583 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 5: revolution and telling the people America's on your side. She 584 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 5: had Senators Chris Murphy and John McCain with her, and 585 00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 5: they spent tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars 586 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 5: on the NGOs that supported the entire carnival to keep 587 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,520 Speaker 5: the thing going for three solid months until they could 588 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 5: get there. First their deal to force the president to 589 00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,240 Speaker 5: agree to new elections, which led to the street puts out, 590 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 5: which was accomplished by local Nazi forces on the ground. 591 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,000 Speaker 5: And this is another one that's important, and I go through. 592 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 5: I beat this dead horse beyond any reason in the book, 593 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 5: so I know the burden of proof is on me. 594 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 5: I know everyone says that this is all just Russian propaganda, 595 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 5: but I think we all. If you went to a 596 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 5: government school, even in my era, then you probably have 597 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,000 Speaker 5: heard of the fact that when the Nazis invaded the 598 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 5: Soviet Union, some people in the border countries welcomed them. 599 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,040 Speaker 3: Yes, because they'd been. 600 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 5: Enslaved under Soviet Communism is the worst thing that ever 601 00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,200 Speaker 5: happened to them. And when the Nazis came, some people 602 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 5: sided with them, and that includes in Ukraine. But the 603 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,920 Speaker 5: people who sided with the Nazis in Ukraine, they were 604 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,680 Speaker 5: really bad guys. It wasn't just oh people from out West, 605 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:14,240 Speaker 5: they were already Nazis. The people there were already organized 606 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 5: groups of Nazis that came and swore their loyalty to 607 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 5: Hitler and served him in the war. Then those same 608 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,960 Speaker 5: forces were supported by the CIA during the Cold War 609 00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 5: through the end of the nineteen fifties as part of 610 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 5: a stay behind type operation. People are probably familiar with 611 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,240 Speaker 5: Gladio that's in Western Europe, but this is the same 612 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 5: kind of thing, supporting stay behind forces during the Cold War. 613 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 5: And then after that the fighting fell apart and ended 614 00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 5: in the fifties America, the CIA and whatever still supported 615 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 5: all the Ukrainian exile groups in the United States and Canada, 616 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 5: many of which were founded by Nazi exiles and expats 617 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 5: who had escaped after World War Two, and then even 618 00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 5: beginning in the eighties with Glasnos and Perstroika, but especially 619 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 5: in the nineties and then after two thousand and four, 620 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 5: uh these groups poured a ton of money in to 621 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 5: re establish all these Nazi militias and to rewrite the 622 00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,479 Speaker 5: whole history of Ukraine, to try to make George Washington 623 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,680 Speaker 5: and Nathaniel Green out of these guys because they had 624 00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 5: no real heroes to be the founders of their state. 625 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 5: So their heroes are a bunch of Hitler's servant Nazis. 626 00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 5: All the costs perpetrating Nazis are the groups that did 627 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 5: the putsch that overthrew the government in twenty fourteen and 628 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 5: then were put to use fighting the people of the 629 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,240 Speaker 5: East when they refused to accept the new ku junta 630 00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 5: in the war, and the Dawnbass when it broke out. 631 00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 5: So I'll skip Trump and rush Agate for a minute, 632 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 5: but we all and I'll just say this about Trump, 633 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:42,719 Speaker 5: his own government told the New York Times. You can 634 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 5: read it Keith Guessing and the New York Times. The 635 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,360 Speaker 5: Quiet Americans is the article, and they say Donald Trump 636 00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:49,719 Speaker 5: is like the captain of a ship. He's holding the wheel, 637 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 5: but it's not attached to anything. And so there was 638 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 5: his government had their own Russia policies. We saw with 639 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 5: the impeachment and all that. But then I'm rambling on. 640 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 5: Wrap this up here. In the year twenty twenty one, 641 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 5: Joe Biden's first year in office, he came in and this. 642 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 3: Is just his basic psychology. It's also the. 643 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:13,080 Speaker 5: Way the entire empire thinks to everything is a simple 644 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 5: historical analogy, because none of them ever really read anything 645 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 5: or know anything, so they always go for these simple 646 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,760 Speaker 5: historical claims. And Joe Biden's you know, framework for understanding 647 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 5: the entire situation was putin is Hitler and he's Winston Churchill. 648 00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 5: And what you do with bullies is you punch them 649 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 5: in the nose and you force them to back down, 650 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,200 Speaker 5: and you always stand up to them, and this and 651 00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 5: that and the other thing. But you know, over at Harvard, 652 00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,479 Speaker 5: Stephen Waltz said, actually you're applying the wrong model. This 653 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,560 Speaker 5: is like, you know, these guys that winch of Georgetown 654 00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 5: and where they have, you know, the textbook formulas already 655 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 5: for this stuff. And he says, look, you're going on 656 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,720 Speaker 5: the Hitler appeasement model, but you shouldn't be. You should 657 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 5: be going on the other page is the spiral model, 658 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 5: where the other side actually has real concerns and you could, yes, 659 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 5: appease them to use a bad word to prevent a 660 00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,320 Speaker 5: word crisis from breaking out, and it wouldn't be the 661 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 5: wrong thing to do, particularly when a country like Ukraine 662 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,959 Speaker 5: is so much more important to Russia than it is 663 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,520 Speaker 5: to the United States. And so but they refused to 664 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 5: look at it that way. They looked at it in 665 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,720 Speaker 5: fact that you see, Biden did nothing but escalate more arms. 666 00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 5: He had the State Department and Defense Department promise further 667 00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,720 Speaker 5: integration in to NATO and interoperability with our military. They 668 00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:26,320 Speaker 5: refused to negotiate with good faith when Putin introduced the treaty. 669 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 5: They talk about the treaty now like it's completely insane. Oh, 670 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 5: he says that we should move all our military forces 671 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 5: back to where there were in nineteen ninety seven. Yeah, 672 00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,800 Speaker 5: but that was the blood oath that Bill Clinton had 673 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 5: signed and promised. That's not eighteen ninety seven, that's just 674 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 5: nineteen ninety seven. That it wasn't exactly a treaty. I 675 00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 5: covered this in the book. They refused to sign a 676 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 5: real treaty over it. But still that was the promise, 677 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 5: and it was not the kind of tree that America 678 00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 5: should have just signed on the bottom line to. 679 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 3: But it was. 680 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 5: Negotiable, but the Biden government didn't want to negotiate. 681 00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:58,280 Speaker 3: And we all know why. 682 00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 5: They said it to David Sanger, the most important establishment 683 00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:03,200 Speaker 5: guy at the New York Times out of all of them. 684 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:06,440 Speaker 5: He wrote it in there, America seeks to lock Russia 685 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:09,839 Speaker 5: into a long term struggle in Ukraine. If they're going 686 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,560 Speaker 5: to do it, we're gonna not do whatever we can 687 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 5: to end the war. We're gonna do whatever we can 688 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 5: to extend the war to bog them down and bleed 689 00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,319 Speaker 5: them to bankruptcy. They in booked the Afghan model from 690 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,000 Speaker 5: the nineteen eighties. Never mind the two thousands through twenty twenties. 691 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:23,839 Speaker 5: We don't want to talk about that. The Afghan model 692 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,640 Speaker 5: from the nineteen eighties where Rambo three helped the mujaiden 693 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 5: in al Qaeda fight against the Soviet Union proto al 694 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,759 Speaker 5: Qaeda then, and so that was what led to the 695 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:37,360 Speaker 5: war was Biden said you better not. But he refused 696 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 5: to negotiate in good faith or accommodate Russian legitimate security 697 00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,480 Speaker 5: concerns in any way whatsoever. 698 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:45,919 Speaker 3: And let me just one more sentence here. 699 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 5: The book is titled Provoked, it's not titled justified. I'm 700 00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 5: from Texas. I don't give a damn. I just said 701 00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 5: this first. I don't give a damn about Russia. The 702 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:56,799 Speaker 5: book is not about Russia's point of view, other than 703 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 5: the idea that what they call st prategic empathy, that 704 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,560 Speaker 5: Americans need to understand the Russian point of view so 705 00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,759 Speaker 5: that we can do the smart thing for what's good 706 00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:07,640 Speaker 5: for our country. 707 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:08,120 Speaker 3: That's it. 708 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, Scott, let me ask you this. I'm inclined to 709 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,080 Speaker 2: see things your way, and I always appreciate your analysis. 710 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,600 Speaker 2: But what people will point to is, you know, on 711 00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,080 Speaker 2: the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin gave 712 00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 2: this long stem winder address and his justifications. They gestured 713 00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:28,319 Speaker 2: to some of the things that you're talking about, but 714 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 2: they also did sketch out this sort of like grand 715 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 2: vision of empire, restoring Russia to its previous greatness, you know, 716 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,319 Speaker 2: from a territorial perspective, et cetera. And so that's part 717 00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,480 Speaker 2: of what's been used for people to say, listen, if 718 00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,319 Speaker 2: you don't stop in the Ukraine, he does have these 719 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,800 Speaker 2: greater ambitions for others to reclaim other parts of Europe 720 00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 2: that were previously part of the Russian Empire. What is 721 00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,200 Speaker 2: your response to that? Do you think that that desire 722 00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,560 Speaker 2: plays it all into his ambitions and is a reasonable 723 00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:01,760 Speaker 2: case for people to make on the other side, No. 724 00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 5: I think it's overstated, essentially because what he's doing in 725 00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:11,279 Speaker 5: there is lamenting the loss of Russian populations that were 726 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,839 Speaker 5: quote unquote left behind or you know, they're they're called 727 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:20,399 Speaker 5: them a beached diaspora because their country receded and they 728 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 5: were left there, right. And so, but the thing is 729 00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:29,440 Speaker 5: where Russian, where ethnic Russians rights are not in jeopardy, 730 00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:34,520 Speaker 5: there's not really a conflict, right, So if you look 731 00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,400 Speaker 5: at it from his point of view, and you know, 732 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,280 Speaker 5: even Joe Biden called them the most pro pro Western 733 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,480 Speaker 5: Russian president ever, he was doing everything he could to 734 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,879 Speaker 5: try to integrate with the West, with Europe, with Western 735 00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 5: Christian civilization broadly defined, and that was of the highest importance. 736 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,200 Speaker 5: And so even going back to independence in nineteen ninety one, 737 00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,160 Speaker 5: there was a question whether Russia might actually invade and 738 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,680 Speaker 5: take the Dawn Bass and Crime back from Ukraine. Right then, 739 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:03,960 Speaker 5: it was just the Commis who drawn the line where 740 00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,799 Speaker 5: they drew it back in nineteen twenty one and Khrushchev 741 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,440 Speaker 5: with PRIMEA in fifty four. But they decided at the 742 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,880 Speaker 5: time their relationship with the United States of America and 743 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,200 Speaker 5: the rest of the West was the most important thing, 744 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:20,120 Speaker 5: that was the priority. So the question is really what 745 00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 5: changed Putin's calculation to make it worth it for him 746 00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,479 Speaker 5: to go this far. And the answer is George Bush 747 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:27,880 Speaker 5: and Barack Obama overthrew the government in Kiev twice in 748 00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:28,560 Speaker 5: ten years. 749 00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:30,359 Speaker 3: And then Obama, I. 750 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,879 Speaker 5: Mean John Brennan went to Kiev and two days later 751 00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,880 Speaker 5: they launched the war, and Forbes magazine everybody covered it 752 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,640 Speaker 5: at the time. There's no question that was at Obama's 753 00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:42,080 Speaker 5: insistence that they launched this war, and then America supported it. 754 00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:45,680 Speaker 5: And even after our European allies had worked out the 755 00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,760 Speaker 5: Minsk to Peace agreement in February twenty fifteen, the American 756 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,600 Speaker 5: government refused to pressure Kiev to implement it. 757 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:53,879 Speaker 3: They tried to change the deal. 758 00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:58,239 Speaker 5: No, Russia has to leave entirely, every last soldier has 759 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:01,680 Speaker 5: to give up even control of the Ukrainian Russian border 760 00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,160 Speaker 5: to Ukrainian forces first and only then will they hold 761 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:05,160 Speaker 5: elections and all this stuff. 762 00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:07,960 Speaker 2: Well, that's the other question I have for you, Scott, 763 00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,400 Speaker 2: is like, did American leaders just get more stupid or 764 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,279 Speaker 2: more arrogant, like because there seemed to have in the 765 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:17,000 Speaker 2: past been more of an understanding of as you put, 766 00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,520 Speaker 2: Ukraine's is kind of like redline. Okay, yes we're lying, 767 00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,319 Speaker 2: we know we're going to expand NATO, but of course 768 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 2: we're not going to expand NATO to Ukraine needs to 769 00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,120 Speaker 2: be unaligned. This is just too important. And then somewhere 770 00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:30,440 Speaker 2: along the way that's just abandoned. So is it a 771 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,799 Speaker 2: lack of knowledge, is it a lack of studying? Is 772 00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,680 Speaker 2: it just this sort of superpower arrogance? What do you 773 00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:39,520 Speaker 2: ascribe this decline too? 774 00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:44,920 Speaker 5: I think the fundamental dishonesty of government employees. They can 775 00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,440 Speaker 5: never be held accountable in any way. You know, in 776 00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:50,279 Speaker 5: private this business, you lose money, you get fired, right, 777 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 5: doesn't matter what your excuse is. Your division is hemorrhaging 778 00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,600 Speaker 5: cash flows and you're gone. In government, they're just never 779 00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:02,000 Speaker 5: accountable for anything. I think, you know Sager mentioned John Mehersheimer. 780 00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,600 Speaker 5: I think he gets this right. You know, it's better 781 00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:09,120 Speaker 5: than anyone. Is that What really happened was when the 782 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:12,320 Speaker 5: revolution blew up in their face and they lost Crimea 783 00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:17,400 Speaker 5: in twenty fourteen. Then they invented this whole narrative about 784 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,239 Speaker 5: how Putin wants to recreate the Empire and recreate the 785 00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,759 Speaker 5: Soviet Union, and that you know, only America can stop 786 00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,680 Speaker 5: him now and all of this stuff, because otherwise they 787 00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:29,279 Speaker 5: would have to admit that their plan backfire if you 788 00:39:29,320 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 5: listen to the Newland Piot phone call where they're planning 789 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,480 Speaker 5: who should be the new prime minister and stage managing 790 00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,720 Speaker 5: the entire you know, protest movement. 791 00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:40,120 Speaker 3: Essentially what they. 792 00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,799 Speaker 5: Say, they go, we got to glue it, we got 793 00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,359 Speaker 5: to stick it, we got to midwife it, we got 794 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,799 Speaker 5: to make it sale. We got to push this thing 795 00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,480 Speaker 5: through before Putin can torpedo it. 796 00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 3: Right. 797 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,160 Speaker 5: They know that they're smart, they know they're getting away 798 00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:54,160 Speaker 5: with it, but they don't get away with it. 799 00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:56,480 Speaker 3: Doesn't work. As soon as they overthrow the government. 800 00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 5: There the previous three presidents sign a letter saying now's 801 00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 5: the time to kick the Russians out of the Sevestipol 802 00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,440 Speaker 5: naval base, cancel the Arkiev pack, and kick the Black 803 00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:09,040 Speaker 5: Sea Fleet out of Crimea. And so Putin said, actually no, 804 00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,760 Speaker 5: and he told his sailors and marines to go outside 805 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,839 Speaker 5: and stand on street corners and a big coupde maine 806 00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:14,879 Speaker 5: and seize the thing. 807 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,880 Speaker 3: But again he didn't do that until America forced the issue. 808 00:40:19,480 --> 00:40:22,280 Speaker 5: So even if he woke up every morning really lamenting 809 00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:27,680 Speaker 5: the fact that the far eastern regions of Ukraine were 810 00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,640 Speaker 5: no longer part of the Russian Empire, for him to 811 00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:32,920 Speaker 5: go so far as to launch a war over It 812 00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:36,759 Speaker 5: was not based on romantic notions, but was based on, 813 00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:41,200 Speaker 5: as he explained in his declarations of war, legitimate security concerns. Again, 814 00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,200 Speaker 5: I'm not saying enough that I would agree to justify 815 00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:46,680 Speaker 5: what he did. But when he talked about listen, if 816 00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:50,439 Speaker 5: you put these same missile launchers in Arkiv, then you'll 817 00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:54,000 Speaker 5: have h bomb's ten minutes from Moscow or less. 818 00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:56,000 Speaker 3: If he said there is. 819 00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:58,279 Speaker 5: He said this numerous times, but in a dispute with 820 00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:01,720 Speaker 5: a back and forth with a French he started yelling 821 00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:06,280 Speaker 5: at her and he said, listening, lady, if Ukraine joins NATO, 822 00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,360 Speaker 5: you guys all say that Crimea still belongs to Ukraine, 823 00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,359 Speaker 5: but I say belongs to Russia. So that means if 824 00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,799 Speaker 5: they attack Crimea and my forces in Crimea and I 825 00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:20,440 Speaker 5: defend Crimea, you're gonna say that I'm the aggressor and 826 00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:22,720 Speaker 5: kick in Article five and then we go to nuclear 827 00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,359 Speaker 5: war and we all die. Do you want to war 828 00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,200 Speaker 5: between Russia and France because that's what you're talking about? 829 00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:30,880 Speaker 5: And the lady goes, uh, yeah. When you put it 830 00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,200 Speaker 5: like that, it really doesn't make much sense. That's why 831 00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,040 Speaker 5: it's against American law, and it's against the NATO treaty 832 00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:37,880 Speaker 5: to bring in a new member that has an ongoing 833 00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:41,080 Speaker 5: border dispute, because it's exactly the kind of conflict that 834 00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:43,520 Speaker 5: you want to avoid. And anyone could just look at 835 00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:45,759 Speaker 5: the map of Europe. We got no business the North 836 00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:50,239 Speaker 5: Atlantic Treaty Organization on the northeastern coast of the Black Sea. 837 00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,040 Speaker 5: I mean, you thought Turkey was pushing it. At least 838 00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:55,799 Speaker 5: they're in the med and this makes no sense. And 839 00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,239 Speaker 5: by the way, you know, I quote in my book 840 00:41:58,280 --> 00:41:59,759 Speaker 5: to ruin the book for everyone. At the end of 841 00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,680 Speaker 5: the I quote Robert Kagan himself, Victoria Neulan's husband, saying, 842 00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,200 Speaker 5: you know what, on second thought, Ukraine doesn't matter to 843 00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,680 Speaker 5: America at all. The Soviet Union occupied it that whole 844 00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:11,160 Speaker 5: time and it never bothered us. 845 00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,120 Speaker 3: He calls it the good old days. I heartily disagree 846 00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:14,960 Speaker 3: with that, but. 847 00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,640 Speaker 5: He's right that, no, it does not matter who has 848 00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:24,280 Speaker 5: sovereignty ultimately over the Donbass and Nova Rossia and Crimea 849 00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,560 Speaker 5: at all. And as far as the disruption to the 850 00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,560 Speaker 5: global rules based liberal world order, well that's just a 851 00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,200 Speaker 5: bunch of crap. That's a euphemism for the world Empire. 852 00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,600 Speaker 5: Seen that is to break the law whenever they want. 853 00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,239 Speaker 5: They want to break off Kosovo from Serbia, they can 854 00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,040 Speaker 5: do that if they want to break off South Sudan, 855 00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,920 Speaker 5: or if they want to break off northern western Sahara, 856 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:46,880 Speaker 5: if they want to give the gol On Heights to 857 00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,880 Speaker 5: Israel and do whatever they want. Oh, but you know, 858 00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,200 Speaker 5: in this case it's different because it's not the Americans 859 00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:52,600 Speaker 5: doing it. 860 00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,440 Speaker 1: There you go, Scott, where fortunately we have to go 861 00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:57,879 Speaker 1: to be able to wrap the show. Highly recommend the book. 862 00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,000 Speaker 1: As you guys can tell, Scott is a walking psychopace, 863 00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,359 Speaker 1: even more encyclopedic in this guy so provoked. We're all 864 00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,960 Speaker 1: the link down in the description and we hope to 865 00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:06,480 Speaker 1: have you back soon. 866 00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:08,200 Speaker 2: Marcott, did you have to look up any of this 867 00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,400 Speaker 2: or it was just all right up here? Because I 868 00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:12,600 Speaker 2: get the sense you could just know I'm talking about 869 00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:14,640 Speaker 2: in your book. Yeah, yeah, I can imagine you're just 870 00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,360 Speaker 2: writing this all out, just like head to keyboard. 871 00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:20,200 Speaker 5: The truth is it started out as a speech that 872 00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:23,600 Speaker 5: I wrote in an hour in twenty twenty, and then 873 00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:25,799 Speaker 5: it grew a little bit, grew a little bit. 874 00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,320 Speaker 2: Good to see you, sir, great Scott, Thank you for 875 00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:30,080 Speaker 2: your wealth of knowledge. 876 00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:30,839 Speaker 1: We appreciate it. 877 00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,080 Speaker 3: Well, appreciate you guys too, Yeah, of course. 878 00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:35,920 Speaker 1: Wow, a wealth of knowledge, that's the only way to 879 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,880 Speaker 1: put it. Thank you guys so much for watching. We 880 00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:39,720 Speaker 1: appreciate you. I have a great show for everybody tomorrow 881 00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:40,239 Speaker 1: and we'll see you that