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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: That's welcome into the Action Network Podcast. This is your

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Speaker 2: UFC Fight Night two three preview. They're at the UFC

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Speaker 2: Apex facility in Vegas this weekend. Brendan glas Sheen with

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Speaker 2: the Action Networks senior writer Sean Zarillo and former professional

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Speaker 2: MMA fighter and MMA analyst Billy Ward. We will take

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Speaker 2: you through the card, highlight some key fights that the

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Speaker 2: guys are eyeing, the fight of the night that these

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Speaker 2: two are honing in on. Besides the main event, favorite

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Speaker 2: underdog plays, some prop bets that you can look at

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Speaker 2: this weekend, a daily fantasy outlook from Billy more specifically

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Speaker 2: Shama way into and we'll get to best bets for

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Speaker 2: Saturday's main card. Gentlemen, let's start with the main event,

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Speaker 2: Thiago Santos taking on Mago med On Calaijev this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Santo's coming off a five round win last time out.

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Speaker 2: It's a heavyweight fight looking forward to this one. Sean,

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Speaker 2: what is your opening thought on the main event for

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Speaker 2: the weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we say Islam Makachev come in a couple of

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Speaker 3: weeks ago, the uncrowned lightweight champ Ankliev, your uncrowned light

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Speaker 3: heavyweight champion, and you see it baked into the line

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Speaker 3: basically implying at around eighty five percent that he would

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Speaker 3: be favored against anybody in the two hundred five pound division,

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Speaker 3: including the champion go over to Shia or the number

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Speaker 3: one contender are Prahschka, and I would probably bet Uncle

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Speaker 3: I have around two hundred against either of those guys.

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Speaker 3: I think he has the skill advantage everywhere against Thiago Santos,

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Speaker 3: he's the better striker. Tiantas is a good Santos is

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Speaker 3: a good striker, but I don't think that he has

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Speaker 3: all the tools can necessary to keep up with Uncle

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Speaker 3: Iev fight oedible stances, power in both hands, and really

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Speaker 3: the advantage comes through the grappling, and that's where Uncle

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Speaker 3: EB has the most upside. Here we saw Santos sort

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Speaker 3: of get ragged out by Alexander Racketch a couple of

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Speaker 3: fights back. I think Uncle Ive can control them up

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Speaker 3: against the fence on the ground for long stretches of time.

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Speaker 3: Good ground and pound as well, so'll actually put some

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Speaker 3: damage on Santos, unlike what we saw from Rockach. The

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Speaker 3: one concern on the Uncle Ive's side and the one

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Speaker 3: place I could see him losing eventually in the future.

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Speaker 3: His output tends to get sucked into low output striking

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Speaker 3: battles on the feet more of a counter striker, so

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Speaker 3: if you don't engage, his output numbers aren't really going

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Speaker 3: to be up there. He tends to get a knockdown

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Speaker 3: on every fight, so he'll still around with power and

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Speaker 3: at least each one of his fights. But I could

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Speaker 3: see a scenario eventually in the future where he's not

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Speaker 3: able to hurt his opponent, maybe not able to grap them,

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Speaker 3: and he just gets sort of edged out on volume,

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Speaker 3: So I think that's something to look for in the future.

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Speaker 3: I don't necessarily think Santos has much of a path

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Speaker 3: to victory in this fight. Traditionally he's a guy with

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Speaker 3: the sledgehammer tattoo on his chess, you would think he's

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Speaker 3: the guy who carries a ton of power. But he

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Speaker 3: injured his knee in those John Jones fight, got a

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Speaker 3: couple knee surgeries, hasn't come back quite as explosive, so

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's carrying necessarily as much power as

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Speaker 3: he had before. Don't give him as much of a

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Speaker 3: punter's chance as you would typically expect for a guy

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Speaker 3: in a two hundred and five pound fight. Some puncher's

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Speaker 3: chance always there. I think I Unclelive hasn't covered pretty

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Speaker 3: much everywhere parlayed them up with some bellitory guys like

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Speaker 3: Mad's Burnell Eagle LEFC like Kevin Lee, so have him

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Speaker 3: sprinkled around in parlays somewhere minus six hundred or better.

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Speaker 3: I think Uncle Ive is a fine parlay piece. The

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Speaker 3: one bet I would look at which caught my interest,

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Speaker 3: not the over three and a half rounds, though I

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Speaker 3: did look at that. It was that that was over

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Speaker 3: two and a half. I'd probably play it. But Uncle

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Speaker 3: Ive to win inside the distance plus one twenty at

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Speaker 3: bet MGM. They're giving you plus one thirty by knockout

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Speaker 3: and around plus eight hundred by submissions, so they're telling

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Speaker 3: you that is inside the distance odd should be around

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Speaker 3: fifty five percent closer to minus one twenty, you're getting

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Speaker 3: plus one twenty. So Uncle Ive inside the distance plus

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Speaker 3: one twenty at bet MGM. I think that's the best way.

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Speaker 3: I've played this fine individually, but otherwise I'm just tossing

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Speaker 3: Alkalaive around a parlays. He's your future light heavyweight champion,

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Speaker 3: one of my favorite fighters in the UFC.

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Speaker 2: Heavy heavy favorite in this heavyweight fight, and what stands

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Speaker 2: out when you look at the two fighters and what

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Speaker 2: jumps off the page is his percentages by decision forty

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Speaker 2: four percent of his wins by decision this year. Billy

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Speaker 2: also weave in some daily fantasy for us here because

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Speaker 2: you looked at the salaries and on Kalaijav not only

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Speaker 2: his betting prospects that you can discuss now, but also

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Speaker 2: you think there's a striking there's something striking about his

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Speaker 2: salary that folks should be aware of.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, just with how expensed on calia is and Ashan brought.

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Speaker 1: Up, his output isn't the best.

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Speaker 4: So if he doesn't get an early finish, there's a

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Speaker 4: good chance that he ends up with a decent score,

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Speaker 4: but not enough to be in the optimal lineup. We've

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Speaker 4: got five or six fights on this card that are

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Speaker 4: minus two hundred or better to end by stoppage. A

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Speaker 4: lot of those the guys are significantly cheaper, So I'm

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Speaker 4: okay with fading this one, especially in GPPs in cash games,

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Speaker 4: you're probably just gonna plug him in, like he's almost

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Speaker 4: definitely going to have a solid score. But yeah, I'm

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Speaker 4: with Sean, I think he the best bet here is

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Speaker 4: that he finishes it inside the distance, but from a

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Speaker 4: DFST standpoint or fourth or fifth round stoppage with not

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Speaker 4: a lot of strikes along the way isn't really what

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Speaker 4: we need from.

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Speaker 5: A guy that top tier salary.

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Speaker 4: So this is one where you know, we usually want

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Speaker 4: the winner of the main event, but I think you

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Speaker 4: could be okay without them min at least some of

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Speaker 4: your lineups this time.

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Speaker 2: Very good, So limited thoughts from the guys here on

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Speaker 2: the main event. We make the turn now to our

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Speaker 2: favorite underdog plays, because that's what we come here for

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Speaker 2: for the analysis, to dive into the deeper stuff and

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Speaker 2: figure out what is also available to us that we

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Speaker 2: can explore outside of the main event and outside some

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Speaker 2: of the more obvious moneyline plays. As Sean mentioned, you

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Speaker 2: can piece things together in a parlay, but what about

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Speaker 2: an underdog bet that stands alone, Sean, that you like.

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Speaker 3: I'm taking aj Fletcher on the money line here plus

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Speaker 3: one to eighty at FanDuel. This line has come in

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Speaker 3: a little bit, but I still think it's wide. Semmelsberger

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Speaker 3: probably has the most overinflated strength of schedule in UFC history.

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Speaker 3: It's beaten three guys who are either no longer with

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Speaker 3: the promotion or should probably be cut and Jason Witt

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Speaker 3: wit his no chin, knocked him out immediately, fought Martin

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Speaker 3: to know who's a friend of Nick, and n Diaz

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Speaker 3: knocked him out immediately. Went a decision with Carlton minus.

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Speaker 3: But the one thing you can see in Semalsberger's tape,

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Speaker 3: especially going back to his regional days, he's a bit

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Speaker 3: weak on the grappling end. I think somebody who has

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Speaker 3: a good grappling skill can take advantage of him, and

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Speaker 3: that's exactly what Fletcher is gonna do. He has all

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Speaker 3: the grappling upside in this matchup at close to plus

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Speaker 3: two to one in odds, so the fact that Fletcher

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Speaker 3: can look for takedowns here keep it pretty close in

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Speaker 3: the striking on the feet, I think Fletcher is going

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Speaker 3: to make this fight very competitive, and if it ends

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Speaker 3: up going to distance, you're gonna want that Fletcher ticket

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Speaker 3: at plus money in your hands. That said, I think

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Speaker 3: Fletcher is a chance to submit him on the ground,

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Speaker 3: just the way that Semmelsberger fights for hooks or doesn't

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Speaker 3: fight for hooks. I should say, up against the cage

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Speaker 3: really concerns me, So I see Fletcher having some grapplings tests,

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Speaker 3: particularly early.

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Speaker 5: Semmelsberger.

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Speaker 3: The bigger guy, eight inch reach advantage certainly carries more

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Speaker 3: power to I think Fletcher has some finishing upside of

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Speaker 3: his own. I think their decision equity is probably about

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Speaker 3: equal here, so this should be a close, competitive fight.

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Speaker 3: So give me the plus one to eighty Semmelsburger. Like

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Speaker 3: I said on that strength to schedule, this is exactly

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Speaker 3: the type of fighter who you look to fade. They

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Speaker 3: built up a resume in the UFC, but I think

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Speaker 3: it's a little faulty billy underdog.

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Speaker 1: Bet your favorite.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to Alex Caseras. I think the best

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Speaker 4: line you can get right now is plus two fifteen.

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Speaker 4: He's fighting Sadik Yusuff and what's looking like it should

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Speaker 4: be a primarily stand up fight. Yusuf's only attempted like

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Speaker 4: just under half of the takedown round in his UFC career,

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Speaker 4: But Cassaras has some sneaky grappling. He's got a bunch

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Speaker 4: of submission wins on there, So this profiles is a

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Speaker 4: fight where stand up is pretty even. You know, Yusuff

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Speaker 4: might have a slight edge, but if that starts going

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Speaker 4: poorly for Bruce Leroy, he can just take him to

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Speaker 4: the ground. It's a good way to steal some rounds.

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Speaker 4: This fight doesn't look like it's necessarily the likeliest done

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Speaker 4: by I think it's one of the longer ones. Actually, yeah,

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Speaker 4: it's even money to end by a stoppage. So if

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Speaker 4: a ghost decision and Casarius has stolen a couple of

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Speaker 4: rounds with takedowns in there, I really like his upside

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Speaker 4: that And you know, he's five and zer In his

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Speaker 4: last five fights, he was a plus one eighty underdog

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Speaker 4: against another rising prospect in Chase Hooper, and I think

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Speaker 4: we need to stop writing him off as a gatekeeper

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Speaker 4: and start thinking about Casarius as a legitimate contender right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Casarus as well. I'm on his money

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Speaker 3: line too, and I really like his submission prop. Also,

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Speaker 3: considering that's higher than his knockout prop, that doesn't really

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Speaker 3: make sense to me. He's really good at taking the

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Speaker 3: back up along the cage, so he doesn't even necessarily

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Speaker 3: need takedowns to get control time or have grappling success here.

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Speaker 3: If he's able to get to use of spack Lockett

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Speaker 3: body triangle, take the neck. I think that's a viable

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Speaker 3: path to victory both on minutes or potentially the best admission.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, take a look around all the books, folks.

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Speaker 2: Casaras on DraftKings plus two point fifteen over on the

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Speaker 2: uh on bet MGM, he's plus two ten. So those

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Speaker 2: odds are moving, and as we you know, as we

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Speaker 2: encourage you all to keep your eyes open as those

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Speaker 2: movements accre occur as the week goes on.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to the guy's fight of the night.

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Speaker 2: They are keying it on Bruno Silva and Alex Pereira,

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Speaker 2: this middlewave fight, both fighters coming off wins last time out.

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Speaker 2: Why is this a fight first off, Sean that you

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Speaker 2: are particularly interested in.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's lines so heavily to finish inside the distance.

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Speaker 3: I believe it's one of the heavier lines I've seen

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Speaker 3: as high as minus seven hundred to end inside the

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Speaker 3: distance around eighty five to ninety percent implied. Pereira is

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Speaker 3: catching a lot of hype because he knocked out Israel

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Speaker 3: Atasania and kickboxing, and believe beat him twice. If you

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Speaker 3: go back and watch those fights Atasania is kind of

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Speaker 3: putting it on him until Perrera knocks him out. This

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Speaker 3: guy is crazy power, incredible check left hook. What looks

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Speaker 3: like he's both out of an oak tree trains with

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Speaker 3: Glover to share on Connecticut. So he's definitely making improvements.

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Speaker 1: That's that.

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Speaker 5: I don't really know if his kickboxing style.

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Speaker 3: Translates to MMA as well as somebody like Adasania's does.

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Speaker 3: Adasania a much more fluid striker. Perreira a bit more

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Speaker 3: stationary and just kind of pops you with power. Knoxi

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Speaker 3: down doesn't really move his head a ton, So if

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Speaker 3: we're going to get a wild striking affair on the

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Speaker 3: feet with four round gloves, yeah, Silva can definitely put

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Speaker 3: him away. Former M one champion in Russia. Really good

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Speaker 3: durability actually, and good cardio too. He's fought into the

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Speaker 3: fourth round. A bit questionable in terms of Pereira's cardio.

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Speaker 3: We really haven't seen him get extended, but we did

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Speaker 3: see him get submitted earlier in his career. I don't

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Speaker 3: think his grappling is necessarily great. He's able to survive

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Speaker 3: on the ground when you take him down, but eventually

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Speaker 3: he's able to find his way back to his feet,

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Speaker 3: as he did against Miklitis and his debut and knock

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Speaker 3: him out with the flying knee. So he's got some

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Speaker 3: fantastic techniques on the feet. As long as he's able

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Speaker 3: to survive on the ground and eventually get back up,

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Speaker 3: I think he's going to be able to find his

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Speaker 3: way to victory, and Silva's probably going to need to

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Speaker 3: grapple to find success. I don't see him having a

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Speaker 3: ton of success in a ranged kickboxing match with Peru,

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Speaker 3: seeing Bruno Silva fall behind on volume or just fall

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Speaker 3: behind in minutes and fine consecutive third round knockouts. So

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Speaker 3: Silva definitely live in a highvarians fight. Potentially live is

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Speaker 3: he's able to secure takedowns. But submission prop plus sixteen

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Speaker 3: hundred for me is my favorite way to play him,

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Speaker 3: and that's my only beat on this fight. Otherwise, I'm

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Speaker 3: just gonna sit back, gather some information, and just enjoy

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Speaker 3: the violence.

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Speaker 2: Pereira and Silva they have takedown defenses that mirror each other,

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Speaker 2: but of course we have more of a stample size

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Speaker 2: with Silva this year. Billy, how about you, This is

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Speaker 2: a fight that we wanted to focus on, but jumps

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Speaker 2: out to you for Silva Pereira.

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Speaker 4: Well, the biggest thing is you're almost definitely gonna have

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Speaker 4: to have the winner of this one in DFS. Perera

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Speaker 4: is obviously a lot more expensive, you know, in line

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Speaker 4: with his odds, but it's unlikely that Silva can get

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Speaker 4: a boring win here. He probably needs to either put

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Speaker 4: him away or just be constantly landing takedowns. So this

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Speaker 4: is one where you know, I'm gonna go to that

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Speaker 4: Fantasy Labs optimizer and create a rule where I've got

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Speaker 4: one of these guys in every single lineup I build.

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Speaker 4: I actually do like Bruno Silva money line. Though it's

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Speaker 4: not quite a striker verse grappler matchup because Silva is

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Speaker 4: more of a striker normally. I think he needs to

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Speaker 4: play it like a striker versus grappler matchup, not worry

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Speaker 4: about trying to prove how tough he is against the

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Speaker 4: kickboxing champ. Get inside, get some takedowns, and you know,

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Speaker 4: like Sean says, we haven't really seen a lot of

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Speaker 4: great grappling out of Peira, so I always want to

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Speaker 4: lean towards the grappler in that matchup, and the guy

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Speaker 4: with more MMA experience. It's different striking with four ounce gloves.

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Speaker 4: You know you can block with a big glove, you

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Speaker 4: can't really block with the four ounce gloves. I think

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Speaker 4: all that is just enough to tip me towards silver.

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Speaker 4: I think plus one sixty five right now.

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Speaker 2: UFC Fight Night two oh three, Brendan Glasheen, Seanzillo, Billy Ward.

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Speaker 1: We are getting you set for Saturday. Be sure to

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Speaker 1: check us out. Every Friday.

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Speaker 2: We are making our way through the card and going

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Speaker 2: through some of our favorite plays for Saturday. We move

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Speaker 2: on to our favorite prop for each of the guys. Sean,

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Speaker 2: where are you looking on the prop market?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you guys know, I like to give out those

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Speaker 3: long shot submission props already, said Casaras by submission eleven

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Speaker 3: hundred at Silva sixteen hundred.

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Speaker 5: So those are my favorite long shot props.

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Speaker 3: But in terms of a bet that I really like,

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Speaker 3: we're gonna go jj Aldrich and Jillian Robertson to go

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Speaker 3: to a decision or to go the distance, you could

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Speaker 3: get that minus one of four. Ad fandle bettit plus

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Speaker 3: one twenty two. Yesterday, I think that line was insane.

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Speaker 3: Women's flyweight fights, they go to decision about sixty percent

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Speaker 3: of the time, so about minus one P. Fifty implied

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Speaker 3: you were getting plus money yesterday, you're still getting minus

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Speaker 3: one o four today. I think that's tremendous value. And

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Speaker 3: that's right where I have this fight projected about fifty

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Speaker 3: nine to sixty percent to see the scorecards. Most of

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Speaker 3: the finishing upside lies on the Robertson side. I believe

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Speaker 3: she's the all time leader in women's submissions in UFC history,

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Speaker 3: so she definitely has some elite skills. That said, Aldrich

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Speaker 3: is a brown belt. I think she can survive on

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Speaker 3: the mat. She doesn't carry much power herself, so if

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Speaker 3: Robertson can't get takedowns in the late stages and starts

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Speaker 3: to tire out, I don't necessarily see Aldritch putting her away.

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Speaker 3: So most of the finishing upside really tied to a

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Speaker 3: jillian submission. Don't really see a knockout on either side

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Speaker 3: or an al submission. I think there's tremendous value on

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Speaker 3: that fight to go to a decision, especially compared to

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Speaker 3: the average for women's flyweight fights. Like I said, closer

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Speaker 3: to sixty percent.

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Speaker 1: Billy, where we looking on the prop market.

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Speaker 4: Just to add into what Sean says, I was looking

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Speaker 4: it up real quick while you were talking zero knockdowns

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Speaker 4: between either of those two in their UFC careers, So

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Speaker 4: if it's going to be a stoppage, it's going to

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Speaker 4: be a submission. So CO sign on that one.

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Speaker 1: But just wanted to.

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Speaker 4: Throw that little nugget on there. But yeah, on my side,

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Speaker 4: I really liked Altra Lunjimbulla to finish inside the distance.

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Speaker 4: I saw this at plus one fifty yesterday. Line was moving,

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Speaker 4: so he might not be able to quite get that.

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Speaker 4: He's fighting Cody Brundridge, who was knocked out in his

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Speaker 4: Contender series fight by William Knight, who's looked really good

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Speaker 4: since then, and then he lost a decision to Nick Maximov,

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Speaker 4: who doesn't really try to finish on anyone, So I

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Speaker 4: don't think we worry about him surviving that one. Lounjimbulla

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Speaker 4: has two UFC wins. One was a KO, But the

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Speaker 4: thing I'm really looking at he's four inches shorter but

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Speaker 4: has a four inch reach advantage, and that's super advantageous

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Speaker 4: for MMA because you can carry more power but still

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Speaker 4: get the benefits of being the taller guy. So he's

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Speaker 4: not weighed down by the extra torso weight, so he

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Speaker 4: can make a lower weight class, but then also just

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Speaker 4: be able to hit from that much farther, and then

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Speaker 4: also as a judo background, So if Rundrid tries to

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Speaker 4: make it a grappling match, he can find a submission

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Speaker 4: in there too. The knockout prop is plus one eighty,

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Speaker 4: but I'd rather just play the inside the distance of

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Speaker 4: plus one fifty, just on the odds of those submissions.

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Speaker 2: All right, very nice, that should be a good fight.

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Speaker 2: That one is one of the highlighted fights on the card.

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Speaker 1: Billy, We're going to move now to DFS.

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Speaker 2: We've already sprinkled in some DFS discussion earlier in the episode,

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Speaker 2: if you want to scroll back and check it out.

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Speaker 2: Silva Pereira to guys that either one is prioritized for

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Speaker 2: Billy in each of his lineups, one or the other,

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Speaker 2: based on how he thinks the winning lineup might shake

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Speaker 2: out in GPPs or.

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Speaker 1: In cash games.

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Speaker 2: Also, we discussed the possibility of fading on Calaiev, the

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Speaker 2: most expensive fighter at ninety six hundred. What is an

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Speaker 2: other approach or another angle you're taking into making a

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Speaker 2: DFS lineup for this weekend.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, one of the other fights that I think we

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Speaker 4: really need to pay a lot of attention to is

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Speaker 4: Drew Dober versus McKinney. That's got the next best odds

349
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Speaker 4: to end inside the distance at minus two to eighty.

350
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Speaker 4: You know, McKinney's won both of his I think both

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Speaker 4: in the first round, right secon both of his GOC.

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Speaker 5: Fights, yep.

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Speaker 4: And you know Dober until his last two fights, we

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Speaker 4: were talking about him as a possible title challenger, this

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Speaker 4: up and coming prospect. McKinney took it on short notice,

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Speaker 4: which I think helps Dover, but it also probably increases

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Speaker 4: the likelihood that McKinny looks for an early finish, comes

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Speaker 4: out really hard, tries to put him away, and then

359
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Speaker 4: if he doesn't, you've got Dober racking up takedowns and

360
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Speaker 4: control time, possibly finishing him later in the fight if

361
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Speaker 4: McKinney runs out of gas. So that's another one, Sean.

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Speaker 4: Any opinions on which of those guys you'd prefer to target.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm probably gonna use a little bit of beach actually,

364
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Speaker 3: but like you said, probably have at least one of

365
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Speaker 3: the other in most of my lineups. I just I

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Speaker 3: expect violence here. McKinney has admitted that he looks for

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Speaker 3: first round finishes. It's just the way he fights. He's

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Speaker 3: very explosive, but his effectiveness tends to wane the later

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Speaker 3: his fight goes. So McKinney, round one, dover, round two,

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Speaker 3: round three, those are the round props I would target.

371
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Speaker 3: I'm just betting the fight to end inside the distance.

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Speaker 3: Got minus two ten or believe minus two hundred, even

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Speaker 3: under two and a half at minus one ninety at

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Speaker 3: bet MGM is the way.

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Speaker 5: I play it at this point.

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Speaker 2: Anything else, beilieve, maybe a value pick that you might

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Speaker 2: be eyeing for DFS.

378
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Speaker 4: Yeah. On the lower und I'm looking at Sabina Mattso.

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Speaker 4: She I believe is the cheapest fighter on the card.

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Speaker 4: Let me look real quick. She is, if not the

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Speaker 4: cheapest one of She's sixty eight hundred, so not quite,

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Speaker 4: but this fight is very likely to go to a decision.

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Speaker 4: Like you know, Sean brought up the smaller women's fights.

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Speaker 4: But Matso also throws more strikes per round than any

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Speaker 4: other fighter on this card, so she doesn't necessarily need

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Speaker 4: a win to put up a good good enough score

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Speaker 4: at sixty eight hundred, then if she gets the wind

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Speaker 4: bonus on top of that, she's a great GPP play,

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Speaker 4: but particularly for cash games when they're trying to find

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Speaker 4: some savings to fit one of these nine thousand plus

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Speaker 4: fighters in there. I really like just the amount of

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Speaker 4: volume she's gonna put up. She's gonna land some strikes.

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Speaker 4: Whether they're super effective or not, we don't really care.

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Speaker 4: We get the same DFS scoring if she touches her

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Speaker 4: so she gets fifteen minutes, she throws seventy five strikes

396
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Speaker 4: per round. That's a lot of total strikes attempted. As

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Speaker 4: long as some of those land home, she's not going

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Speaker 4: to tank your lineups very very cheap.

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Speaker 1: Interesting.

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Speaker 2: So I think the sense I'm getting here is fights

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Speaker 2: that could go go the distance potentially are are good

402
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Speaker 2: fights to target, is what I'm getting a hang of

403
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Speaker 2: here the last couple weeks when it comes to DFS

404
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Speaker 2: in MMA.

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Speaker 4: Well, particularly cash games, and particularly when you need someone cheap,

406
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Speaker 4: because if you've got someone cheap, you're not necessarily expecting

407
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Speaker 4: them to win. So if they're going to lose, we

408
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Speaker 4: want them to have fifteen minutes of scoring before they lose.

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Speaker 4: For the GPPs and the more expensive fighters, we want

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Speaker 4: those to end sooner because you get more points of

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Speaker 4: it ends earlier, so.

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Speaker 1: Makes sense, makes sense.

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Speaker 2: The longer they go, the more points for all of us.

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Speaker 2: Fantastic before we go, before we end this episode of

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Speaker 2: UFC our UFC Betting Preview Fight Night two oh three.

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Speaker 2: Let's get to our best bets, Sean. We'll start with you, sir.

417
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Speaker 3: Give me Damon Jackson. The Leach minus won ten at

418
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Speaker 3: Caesar's is where I bet it. This line's come down

419
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Speaker 3: a lot. He was plus one forty earlier in the week.

420
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Speaker 3: But I think he has a good arc type to

421
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Speaker 3: be common Kirk here Kirk Facemakwan Amerkani very similar fighter.

422
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Speaker 3: In his last matchup, I believe that was his UFCA debut,

423
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Speaker 3: and he had some trouble stopping the takedowns, was able

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Speaker 3: to work his way back to the feet kind of

425
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Speaker 3: his sprawl and brawl type fighter. But the issue with

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Speaker 3: himer Kani, which is always the case, doesn't have great stamina.

427
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Speaker 3: That's not the case with Damon Jackson. Jackson's going to

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Speaker 3: go for all fifteen minutes. I would actually give him

429
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Speaker 3: the cardio advantage against Kirk, so better cardio all of

430
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Speaker 3: the grappling upside. He tends to get in on you,

431
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Speaker 3: just sort of cling on you. Eventually get you down.

432
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 3: But it's very similar to what you saw Bryce Mitchell,

433
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,080
Speaker 3: Dode Edson Barbosa last week. Just sort of get in

434
00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 3: on your hips, cling on to you, and eventually find

435
00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 3: a way to drive you to the ground. So Jackson

436
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:03,920
Speaker 3: should be able to rack up minutes of control time here.

437
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 3: I think the striking is actually going to be fairly closed.

438
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,760
Speaker 3: I don't think Jackson is going to fall behind two dramatically.

439
00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 3: If they just end up standing at kickboxing range, they

440
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 3: end up boxing in the pocket, So Jackson should be

441
00:20:15,560 --> 00:20:17,679
Speaker 3: close on the feet. But all of the grappling upside

442
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 3: in my opinion, make them closer to sixty percent about

443
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 3: minus one fifty implied like his decision prop two at

444
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 3: two to one and make that closer to plus one thirty.

445
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,800
Speaker 3: But damon, Jackson on the money line is going to

446
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 3: be my best bet for this weekend to get it

447
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 3: about minus one ten, but I'd play that up to

448
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 3: about minus one twenty five or even minus one thirty.

449
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: All right, I think Billy, you're going to go to

450
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,639
Speaker 2: the prelimbs as well.

451
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know if Teun stole my thunder a little

452
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 4: bit earlier on this one. But I sent the email first,

453
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 4: so I'm still rolling with it.

454
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 2: And by the way, that is how it works. You know,

455
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,439
Speaker 2: whoever gets to the email first, they get first DIBs.

456
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: That's just how it goes.

457
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 5: My segment just came first, so that's how I was

458
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 5: able to one up.

459
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 4: Yet, that's true, I should have switched the segment order

460
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 4: when I did that, But no, I'm also going with

461
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,199
Speaker 4: AJ Fletcher. Sean pointed out, you can still get him

462
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 4: at plus one eighty. I got him at plus two

463
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 4: hundred earlier in the week. Again, that's a very good

464
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 4: sign that we're in the right direction. The only thing

465
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 4: I wanted to add on, and Sean said he was,

466
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,479
Speaker 4: you know, worried about Semmelsberger's power advantage. I don't know

467
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 4: that that's so true. If you guys have looked up A. J.

468
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 4: Fletcher's seeing pictures of him, He's built like just a

469
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 4: miniature NFL linebacker. I think he was like an all

470
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:19,359
Speaker 4: state football player in high school.

471
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey haircut kind of he.

472
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:25,720
Speaker 4: Does, but like somehow more Jack than Christian McCaffrey, but

473
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 4: way short. But yeah, just super explosive guy. He ended

474
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 4: his Contender Series fight with a flying knee where it

475
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 4: looked like he jumped about thirty inches before he got

476
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 4: the knee. So I'm with Sean on the grappling advantage,

477
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 4: but I think he's also got a lot of power

478
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 4: in there too, so there's just too many ways for

479
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 4: him to win. I don't really think Semilsberger is, you know,

480
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 4: a solid UFC level fighter. I think Fletcher is going

481
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 4: to be a contender. He's going to be scary for

482
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 4: a little bit until he runs into someone who can

483
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 4: keep his tiny two rex arms away from him.

484
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,320
Speaker 5: I think I've just done general principle.

485
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 3: When you get these like unranked fighters who were minus

486
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 3: two hundred, minus three hundred, even random averick you mentioned

487
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 3: against Maso. Do you get these unranked fighters who are

488
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 3: substantial favorites against somebody who can make the fight competitive.

489
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 3: It's almost clearly a dogg or pass situation every time,

490
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 3: just based on the fact that the fight should be

491
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 3: more competitive than a higher ranked fighter taking on a

492
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 3: prospect or an up and comer.

493
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm totally with that. And I did a piece

494
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 4: a while back where if you just blindly bet every

495
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,640
Speaker 4: underdog on like fight night prelims, how much money you'd

496
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 4: make and it's pretty solid long term, so totally with that,

497
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 4: and yeah, I'm all over Fletcher this week.

498
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,719
Speaker 1: Guys, great stuff. Look forward to Saturday. Folks.

499
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,959
Speaker 2: Thanks for tuning in to the Action Network Podcast, your

500
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 2: betting preview for UFC Fight Night two three. For Sean Zarillo,

501
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: you can find his work over on the Action Network.

502
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 2: He is a senior writer. Billy Ward one of our

503
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:51,240
Speaker 2: great analysts for MMA, also a former MMA.

504
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 1: Fighter, so be sure to check those guys out covering.

505
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: All things MMA and UFC over on the Action Network.

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00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 1: Pregnant Glass Sheens signing off once again.

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00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 2: We are here every Friday getting you set for the

508
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 2: main event also the prelims in UFC, so be sure

509
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 2: to join us next Friday here on the Action Network

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00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 2: Podcast