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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's on target.

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Speaker 3: It is good.

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Speaker 1: Wyo.

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Speaker 4: That's when you have fun when you're kicking somebody's ass

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Speaker 4: and they're sucking for win.

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Speaker 2: That was good readay go, I'm bolder on the baseball fob. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: way outside possible. I'm the wily event said there it

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Speaker 2: is whoa, whoa.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the award winning Action Network podcast. I'm your

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Speaker 3: host today, Brendan Lasheen. The True Dance gets underway starting

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Speaker 3: on Thursday thirty two first round men's basketball games between

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Speaker 3: Thursday and Friday the NCAAA Men's Basketball Division One tournament. Today,

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Speaker 3: we are going to dive into player props for.

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Speaker 2: The first round. That's right, player props, and we've.

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Speaker 3: Got dudes that are super dialed in to the player

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Speaker 3: prop market. Want to welcome in Sean Kerner. He is

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Speaker 3: director of predictive Analytics at the Action Network. One of

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Speaker 3: his newest team members is here.

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Speaker 2: Nick Giffen. Hi, everybody, Hi.

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Speaker 3: Nick, familiar with the podcast, familiar visitor with the podcast.

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Speaker 3: He is an Action Network predictive analyst. And we have

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Speaker 3: Doug Zifel, Action Network contributor also joining us.

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Speaker 2: Thanks so much for making the.

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Speaker 3: Time gents, what would be your biggest piece of advice

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Speaker 3: to someone that wants to attack the player prop market.

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Speaker 2: Sean will go to you first and we'll work our

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Speaker 2: way through here. Just what would you say?

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Speaker 5: I would point them to our player prop tool over

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Speaker 5: at Action Labs, where you can see Nick and I's

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Speaker 5: projections compared against the market. It's very cool and it

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Speaker 5: helps you identify which props we like the most. There's

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Speaker 5: a ton up right now, so I would just point

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Speaker 5: them there.

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Speaker 2: Nick anything to add to that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say, first of all, definitely go there.

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Speaker 4: But second of all, the most accurate thing you can

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Speaker 4: do to projecting props is projecting minutes. You know, if

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Speaker 4: you see something you think it's strange, or you like it,

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Speaker 4: or you don't like it, investigate a little further. Make

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Speaker 4: sure you know you're looking at the players minutes, and

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Speaker 4: that will inform whether they're going to play more and

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Speaker 4: accumulate more of these stats or play less and accumulate

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Speaker 4: fewer of these stats.

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Speaker 3: Doug, take us home your biggest piece of advice in

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Speaker 3: the prop market for the tournament, and.

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Speaker 1: My biggest piece of advice would be, don't get too

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Speaker 1: cute with the matchups. You target. You know, look for

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Speaker 1: either very good matchups or very bad matchups. There's no

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Speaker 1: reason to try to pick between guys who may or

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Speaker 1: may not be significantly over under there.

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Speaker 3: Excellent caution is key when it comes to the flare

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Speaker 3: prompt market. Let's dive right in because we have a

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Speaker 3: lot to get to starting with Thursday, Sean Kerner, let's

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Speaker 3: go to you first, get us going, what do you got?

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Speaker 5: So I'm going to kick it off with Ryan Davis

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Speaker 5: under sixteen and a half points at plus one oh five.

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Speaker 5: He plays for Vermont, and you can find this prop

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Speaker 5: over at DraftKings. This is one of my favorite props

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Speaker 5: because we're projecting him closer to thirteen points. You know,

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Speaker 5: Vermont has had one of the easiest schedules according to

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Speaker 5: Ken Palm Strength of Schedule, coming in at three hundred

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Speaker 5: and thirty second. And you know, Arkansas's defense ranks sixteenth

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Speaker 5: in adjusted efficiency, so this is by far the best

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Speaker 5: defense that Vermont's going to see all season. And you know,

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Speaker 5: Vermont has averaged seventy five points a game this season,

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Speaker 5: but they're implied team total is only sixty seven here,

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Speaker 5: So that's a huge reason why we're much much lower

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Speaker 5: on him, and we're giving him around a sixty four

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Speaker 5: percent chance of going under this number. So I love

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Speaker 5: love this prop.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Vermont really had no problems in the America East Conference

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Speaker 3: this year. Ryan Davis did repeat as Conference Player of

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Speaker 3: the Year. He missed a couple games during the season,

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Speaker 3: had some injuries pop up, but Vermont was cleaning up

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Speaker 3: in that conference, so he could afford to miss some

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Speaker 3: games throughout the course of the year and just coast

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Speaker 3: to the end of the season.

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Speaker 2: Sean will keep it right with you. You want to

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Speaker 2: go over to the number three see Tennessee volunteer.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So for that game, I love the Santiago vescoviy

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Speaker 5: over two and a half three pointers made. It's minus

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Speaker 5: one twenty over at DraftKings. They're facing Longwood, which ranks

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Speaker 5: three hundred and thirty second and three point ten percentage.

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Speaker 5: So this is a spot where Vescovy should thrive. He

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Speaker 5: he leads Tennessee and three point shooting, So we're projecting closer.

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Speaker 5: You got three and a half three pointers made and

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Speaker 5: a sixty six percent chance of clearing two and a half.

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Speaker 3: Very nice, okay, And Tennessee is the three seed over

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Speaker 3: in the South for this season.

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Speaker 2: Folks think they are an underrated number three seed.

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Speaker 3: Will work our way through our panel, getting through most

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Speaker 3: of our props.

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Speaker 2: Doug will go to you next, and you want to

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Speaker 2: stay on this same game, except we're going to go

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Speaker 2: to the other side. We're gonna go to Longwood.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna piggyback off the show on here.

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Speaker 1: This is a big mismatch for Longwood. It's a big

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Speaker 1: step up in competition. If you look at Longwood schedule

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Speaker 1: and the best team that they played this season with

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Speaker 1: Iowa and the opener, and they Will's by thirty six points.

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Speaker 1: So I'm targeting their leading scorer here justin to go

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Speaker 1: under thirteen and a half points. That's minus one forty

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Speaker 1: and you can find that at DraftKings. If you look

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Speaker 1: at Tennessee, they're the one the one of the top

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Speaker 1: three defenses in the nation and Hill will likely be

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Speaker 1: matched up with Kennedy Chandler and Edel. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you've seen Kennedy Chandler play, but he's a great

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Speaker 1: on Bowl defender. He's a six foot two guard with

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Speaker 1: a seven foot wings band, and he likes to pick.

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Speaker 3: Pockets Tennessee's been phenomenal as of late. They are the

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Speaker 3: winners of the SEC Tournament. They've been dialing it up defensively,

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Speaker 3: as we mentioned, one of the more underrated seeds as

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Speaker 3: far as three seeds.

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Speaker 2: In the tournament this year.

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Speaker 3: And like you said, Hill is the leading scorer for

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Speaker 3: the Lancers all Big South selections, so Doug believes he

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Speaker 3: could be in for a long day not hitting his average.

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Speaker 3: We'll stick with you, Doug again. We're making our way

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Speaker 3: through player props. We'll start Thursday, work till Friday. Most

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Speaker 3: of our picks here on the Thursday slate of games.

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Speaker 2: Richmond, Iowa.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned Iowa as an opponent for Longwood to open

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Speaker 3: the season.

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Speaker 2: You're going over to Jordan Bohannon. What do you have

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Speaker 2: on him?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're targeting the hero from the Big Ten semifinals.

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Speaker 1: But it's not going to do with his points here.

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Speaker 1: It's going to go to his rebounding props. I'm looking

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Speaker 1: for him to go over one and a half rebounds.

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Speaker 1: That's minus one forty five at DraftKings. If you look

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Speaker 1: at this matchup, Richmond is a horrible offensive rebounding team.

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Speaker 1: They're three hundred and twenty seventh in offensive rebounding rate,

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Speaker 1: and Bohannan has gone over this total in fifteen of

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Speaker 1: thirty five games this season, including two of the last

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Speaker 1: three matchups in the Big Ten Tournament. I also think

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Speaker 1: there's a little bit of game script played in here.

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Speaker 1: If I would build a big lead, Richmond's going to

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Speaker 1: be forced to take outside shots to try to make

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Speaker 1: up the deficit, which turns into long rebounds for Bohannon.

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Speaker 2: I owe your Big Ten champion.

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Speaker 3: They have come on as of late, playing much better

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Speaker 3: basketball over the final two months, and Bohannon, as Doug

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Speaker 3: mentioned on the rebounding front, not strong in terms of

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Speaker 3: average through the season, however, he has been a presence

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Speaker 3: on the glass.

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Speaker 2: As of late. Nick, well you win. We go back

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Speaker 2: to Arkansas Vermont.

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Speaker 3: That is the five thirteen matchup that folks are really

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Speaker 3: high on. We talked about this a bit on the

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Speaker 3: podcast the other day we went through your system, the

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Speaker 3: Nick Giffen Guide to Betting March Madness. It's a game

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Speaker 3: that you didn't want to touch in terms of picking

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Speaker 3: one of those teams like Vermont to go far in

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Speaker 3: the tournament, but it's worthy of bringing up because it's

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Speaker 3: two teams that play very similarly. Who are you targeting

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Speaker 3: on the player pop market?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean so this game should be pretty close.

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Speaker 4: I'm targeting Jalen Williams under nine and a half rebounds

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Speaker 4: at plus one oh five. You can find that over

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Speaker 4: on DraftKings. The issue here for Jalen Williams is Vermont

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Speaker 4: is has ways of preventing rebounds. First of all, they're

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Speaker 4: very slow paced team. Second of all, jal Wens a

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Speaker 4: defensive rebound hog. But Vermont is the third most accurate

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Speaker 4: shooting team in the nation per effective field goal percentage.

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Speaker 4: So if they're making a lot of bucket's not going

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Speaker 4: to be a whole lot of defensive rebounds for Williams

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Speaker 4: to grab. On the offensive side, Vermont is one of

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Speaker 4: the best teams in nation at crashing the boards defensively,

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Speaker 4: which will prevent offensive rebounds for Jalen Williams. So slow

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Speaker 4: pace Vermont really good at preventing defensive rebounds by scoring,

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Speaker 4: good at preventing offensive rebounds by grabbing their own boards. There,

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Speaker 4: if we look at Williams versus slow teams, he averaged

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Speaker 4: nine point two boards in six games against the four

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Speaker 4: slowest SEC teams, and they definitely weren't as accurate shooting

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Speaker 4: as Vermont, so going under nine and a half here,

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Speaker 4: we haven't projected for a round eight and a.

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Speaker 3: Half defensive rebound hog, Did you do that intentionally?

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Speaker 4: I did not, but I like it.

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Speaker 2: That's very well done.

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Speaker 3: I thought you tried to slip that in there and

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Speaker 3: not hope one of us would catch it, but I

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Speaker 3: couldn't help myself. Jalen Williams seventeen times has hit under

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Speaker 3: this number, has hit the over in nate of his

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Speaker 3: last ten. But Nick is very much into the matchup,

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Speaker 3: and that's interesting what Seawn brought up with Ryan Davis.

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Speaker 3: You'd figure those two could be banging inside in this

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Speaker 3: kind of game, but then again, you know it's in

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Speaker 3: a year or in a time of positionless basket all

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Speaker 3: Davis can also space the Floria, So we'll see if

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Speaker 3: that bodes well or it gives Williams any less of

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Speaker 3: an opportunity to grab boards. Let's move to a game

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Speaker 3: that we have a lot of attention on here in

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Speaker 3: the player prop market for Thursday. It's the second game

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Speaker 3: that tips off the Providence Friars taking on the South

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Speaker 3: Dakota State jack Rabbits and the North Florida transfer Nick

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Speaker 3: Noah Horschler. Hoorschler is a dude who can step from

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Speaker 3: the outside and knock it down. And you're going to

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Speaker 3: his player prop in the points department.

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Speaker 2: What do you got for us?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is actually the first prop by Eyed when

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Speaker 4: I was looking for props for this weekend's games for

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Speaker 4: the for the Thursday Friday slate, and I have Noah

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Speaker 4: Horcheler going over nine and a half points. It's minus

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Speaker 4: one oh five over at draft Kings. We actually haven't

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Speaker 4: projected for twelve point one points. And here's why.

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Speaker 3: So.

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Speaker 4: First of all, South Dakota State plays faster, around six

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Speaker 4: nine and a half possessions per game instead of a

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Speaker 4: sixty seven average. They also have a really weak defense.

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Speaker 4: They rank to twenty third in defensive efficiency per Ken pom.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 4: So, if you take a team you know similar to

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Speaker 4: them in the Big East, let's say Georgetown at sixty

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Speaker 4: nine point nine possessions and one in five point five

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Speaker 4: points per one hundred, whereas whereas South Dakota State's one

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Speaker 4: of five point three points per one hundred, a very

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Speaker 4: similar team. Porschler averaged twelve points in those two meetings

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Speaker 4: with Georgetown in an average of thirty two minutes. We

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Speaker 4: actually have him projected closer to thirty six thirty seven minutes.

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Speaker 4: He's averaged thirty six and a half in his last

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Speaker 4: four games. Also, Hoorchler really good from three point land.

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Speaker 4: He is a forty percent three point shooter. South Dakota

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Speaker 4: State allows three point attempts at a higher rate than

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Speaker 4: the national average and a three point percentage allowed at

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Speaker 4: a higher rate than the national average. So we have

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Speaker 4: Horsler for around twelve points in this nine and a

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Speaker 4: half line.

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Speaker 3: I like it with their guards they slash should create,

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Speaker 3: you know, opportunities to work inside outside.

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Speaker 2: Like we said, there's a lot to get to win

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Speaker 2: this game.

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Speaker 3: I want to remind folks you are tuning into the

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Speaker 3: Action Network podcast. We are getting you set for the

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Speaker 3: player prop market for March Madness First Round Action Thursday

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Speaker 3: and Friday. Sean Kerner is here, Doug z Full is

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Speaker 3: here as well Nick Giffen, all of the Action Network.

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Speaker 3: We go back to Sean who is the director of

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Speaker 3: Predictive Analytics over at the Action Network.

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Speaker 2: We're staying on this game.

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Speaker 3: We're staying on the four to thirteen matchup of Providence

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Speaker 3: and South Dakota State.

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Speaker 2: What do you have for us Sean?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm going with Jared biinhim of Providence to

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Speaker 5: go over three and a half assists at minus one

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Speaker 5: forty five at DraftKings. It's quite a bit of juice,

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Speaker 5: but it's worth it because we have him going over

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Speaker 5: this around sixty four percent of the time. And this

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Speaker 5: correlates nicely with the Noah Horsler prop that Nick just

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Speaker 5: talked about. I could see, you know, Bim dishing it

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Speaker 5: out to Horsher for three many times in this game.

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Speaker 5: So love this prop. And you know the Providence they've

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Speaker 5: averaged seventy two points a game this season and their

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Speaker 5: team to their imply team total here is seventy six,

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Speaker 5: so he should see some extra assist opportunities. He's averaged

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Speaker 5: four point two assists a game this year, so I

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Speaker 5: don't know why they set the profit three point five,

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Speaker 5: but we're projecting this closer to four point four and

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Speaker 5: again a sixty four percent chance of going over, So

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Speaker 5: I love getting it at minus one forty five.

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Speaker 3: Well, in to Knick's point, they like to push pace

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Speaker 3: to South Dakota State, so that could present opportunities, especially

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Speaker 3: on the break for buying them to get to his number,

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Speaker 3: and he's only gone under this number ten times, and

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Speaker 3: that's out of thirty games Providence is played. That's two

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Speaker 3: thirds of the games that he has hit the over.

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Speaker 3: So I said, we had a lot to get to

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Speaker 3: in this game with Providence in South Dakota State, so

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Speaker 3: we'll let Sean go first on this one. But this

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Speaker 3: is actually a combined pick, so it's one we should

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Speaker 3: probably feel better about. Because if two of the three

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Speaker 3: guys on here feel good about it, that's that's that

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Speaker 3: bodes well, I would like to think. So Sean, get

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Speaker 3: us started. We're going to go to South Dakota State's

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Speaker 3: leading score. What do you have for us?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so Nick and I were fighting over, you know,

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Speaker 5: who can get this prop, so we just agreed to

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Speaker 5: both take it. But we both love Baylor Shiremen under

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Speaker 5: eighteen and a half points. You can get at minus

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Speaker 5: one twenty two right now over at FanDuel. But this

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Speaker 5: this prop is pretty straightforward. South Dakota Say has averaged

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Speaker 5: eighty seven points a game this season, with Shiremen averaging

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Speaker 5: sixteen point three points a game. However, they're implied team

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Speaker 5: total is right around seventy four, so you know, thirteen

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Speaker 5: points lower than their average, and yet they're offering this

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Speaker 5: eighteen and a half. It makes no sense. We're projecting

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Speaker 5: him closer to fifteen and a half points here and

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Speaker 5: about a sixty four percent chance of going under eighteen

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Speaker 5: and a half.

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Speaker 3: Interesting, so you project fifteen and a half and Nick

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Speaker 3: is daring to go under that number two?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, if we're projecting a fifteen and

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Speaker 4: a half, that means right around fifty percent of the

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Speaker 4: time he should be there. So we're getting plus one

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Speaker 4: seventy two under fifteen and a half for the alternate

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Speaker 4: line at FanDuel there for Shiremen. So you know, you

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Speaker 4: gotta love thing positive odds there on something we're given

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Speaker 4: basically a coin flip. Just a little bit more on Shireman.

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Speaker 4: Providence is really good at preventing the three pointer and

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Speaker 4: foul shots. And guess what Shireman does. He shoots threes

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Speaker 4: and he gets to the line. Sixty percent of his

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Speaker 4: points come from those two places, but Providence only allows

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Speaker 4: forty six point seven percent of points to be scored

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Speaker 4: from either the free throw line or three points, so

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Speaker 4: it doesn't play well to Shireman's strengths again the slow

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Speaker 4: pace there, I like the alternate line under fifteen and

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 3: He's hit under this in fifteen games and he's played

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Speaker 3: in thirty four so just about fifty percent. In Deshaun's

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Speaker 3: point at eighteen and a half, he's hit under nineteen points. Shireman,

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Speaker 3: the all summ at first team are in twenty one games.

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Speaker 3: We work our way to another game. Finally, that was

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Speaker 3: a lot of friars jack rabbits talk on this episode

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Speaker 3: of the pod. But hey, we're just trying to give

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Speaker 3: you winners here on the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Sean will go back to you.

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Speaker 3: You are targeting the budding center for Memphis, Jalen Duran.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm taking Jalen Duran under eight and a

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Speaker 5: half rebounds at minus one ten. You can get this

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Speaker 5: at DraftKings. You know, Boise State is very good at

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Speaker 5: preventing offensive rebounds. They're twenty two percent offensive rebround rate allowed,

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Speaker 5: ranks fifth in the country. And Jalen Duran, you know,

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Speaker 5: he has an offensive rebound rate of thirteen point six,

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Speaker 5: which leads a team. So this is a matchup where

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Speaker 5: he should see fewer rebound chances, especially on the offensive side.

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Speaker 5: Based on the matchup, and that's you know, largely why

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Speaker 5: we're projecting him closer to seven point five rebounds here

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Speaker 5: and a sixty six percent chance of staying under eight

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Speaker 5: and a half.

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Speaker 3: Over in three of the last five, but under in

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Speaker 3: seventeen of twenty seven games for the season. A Memphis

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Speaker 3: team that did reach the American Championship game against Houston

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Speaker 3: Houston Avengers that lost to them in the regular season,

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Speaker 3: but a game it didn't mean much for Houston at

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Speaker 3: the end of the year. But again, Houston winning the

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Speaker 3: American Championship against Memphis. They get Boise State in the

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Speaker 3: NCAA tournament, Sham will go back to you for another one.

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Speaker 3: You want to target the one seed Baylor, Baylor the

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Speaker 3: number one seed in the East Region.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I like James Akinjo to get over five

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Speaker 5: and a half assists. You can get it at even

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Speaker 5: money right now over at DraftKings. But you know, this

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Speaker 5: matchup is pretty easy against Norfolk State, where they've allowed

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Speaker 5: to assist on fifty four point one percent of field

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Speaker 5: goals made, which you know ranks two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 5: eighth in the Country. League averages culture to fifty one.

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Speaker 5: So you know, a Kinjo should see a spike and

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Speaker 5: assists here. Baylor should be able to score it well

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Speaker 5: in this game. Hence, they're implied team total being right

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Speaker 5: around eighty and a Kinjo's cleared this number in eight

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Speaker 5: of the past twelve games, which lines up pretty nicely

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Speaker 5: with our projection of six point five assists. We have

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Speaker 5: them clearing this around sixty four percent at the time,

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Speaker 5: so love Akinjo to go over five and a half

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Speaker 5: assists here.

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Speaker 3: Let me ask you a quick follow up because, just

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Speaker 3: as a regular Joe Schmall, I see wait a minute,

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Speaker 3: one seed against the sixteen. Do don't have to worry

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Speaker 3: about a blowout? Is that at all a concern?

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Speaker 4: Uh?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm actually factoring on it already. His minutes projection

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Speaker 5: is a tow lower because of that. That's a fair concern.

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Speaker 5: But again, you know, he's going to be extremely efficient

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Speaker 5: when he's in the game, so I think he's going

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Speaker 5: to cur this even if and you know, if they

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Speaker 5: blow him out, that meant they were scoring a ton

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Speaker 5: early on, so I think it just sort of cancels

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Speaker 5: out here.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, Let's go back to you, Doug. It's been

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Speaker 2: a while since you spoke.

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Speaker 3: We're we're moving down to Friday, So that's a lot

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Speaker 3: for Thursday. We do have picks for Friday first round action.

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Speaker 3: Like we mentioned thirty two first round games, we're working

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Speaker 3: away now into Friday slate. And you want to target

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Speaker 3: Iowa State and LSU. What do you have for us

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Speaker 3: from that game?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, for that game, I really like Isaiah Brockington's under

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Speaker 1: sixteen and a half points. You can find that at

380
00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 1: DraftKings for minus one twenty five. When you look at

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Speaker 1: Brockington here, it's a very tough matchup against an LSU

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Speaker 1: team that you don't considering all their off court issues.

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00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 1: Removing Will Wade may may clear the culture a little

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Speaker 1: bit here, and we look at them, they're healthy now,

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Speaker 1: so their defense is going to be at full strength.

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Speaker 1: There was a time where LSU was considered the best

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Speaker 1: defense in the country. They wound up finishing fourth in

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Speaker 1: defensive efficiency. And also, when you look at Iowa State

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Speaker 1: as a whole, their issue this season as they have

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Speaker 1: not had a consistent number two option underneath Brockington, and

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00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 1: so that's going to allow LSU to be able to

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Speaker 1: key on him throughout the duration of the game. And

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Speaker 1: last point would be when you look at how Brockington

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Speaker 1: performed against defenses that are similar to LSU in efficiency,

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Speaker 1: looking at Baylor of Texas Tech in Texas, he went

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Speaker 1: significantly under this total in each of their matchups.

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Speaker 3: That's an eleven to six matchup on the bracket. Into

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Speaker 3: Doug's point, their next best leading scorer is Tyrese Hunter

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00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:43,760
Speaker 3: at ten point eight points per game. Brockington averages seventeen

400
00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 3: point two and as you mentioned LSU, despite everything going

401
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,000
Speaker 3: on off the floor, they have been a solid defensive

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00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:51,639
Speaker 3: team throughout the course of the season. So I like

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00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 3: it six to eleven matchup. Let's move to Nick Giffen again.

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00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,359
Speaker 3: Nick a Friday pick for US. You are looking to

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Speaker 3: USC and Miami.

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00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 4: What do you got, yeah, bienvenido, ami yami. We have

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Speaker 4: Jordan Miller in this game for Miami going under eleven

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00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 4: and a half points at even money on draft Kings.

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Speaker 4: So the reason I like this is USC is big.

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00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 4: They are the fourth biggest team in the nation per

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00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:20,080
Speaker 4: Ken Palm, and Miller actually mostly operates inside as a

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00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 4: power forward and USC he's not gonna be facing a guy.

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Speaker 4: You know, He's not gonna be a matchup against a

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Speaker 4: guy that's less than six foot nine or even up

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00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 4: to six foot eleven. For most of the game, USC

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00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 4: just crushes two point shooters. They only allow forty one

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00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 4: point six percent shooting from inside, and they actually funnel

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00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,120
Speaker 4: more shots inside as well, So not only are they

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00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 4: good at preventing them, but they also forced teams to

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00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,440
Speaker 4: shoot inside and then you know, make sure they miss.

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Speaker 4: So that's really unfortunate because Miller takes most of his

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Speaker 4: shots from inside. He's super accurate a sixty four point

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00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 4: nine percent shooter from two point land. But if USC

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00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 4: is absolutely destroying two point shooters making them miss, that's

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00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,920
Speaker 4: gonna impact Miller the most. Also, there's that little issue

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Speaker 4: of pace, USC slower than the national average. All that

427
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 4: together is why we have Miller projected for around ten

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00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 4: and a half points instead of eleven and a half.

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Speaker 3: All right, now, he has hit this over in four

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Speaker 3: straight games, and most of those coming in the ACC

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00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 3: Tournament for Miami. So there are two picks for you

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Speaker 3: in the Midwest region and to take us home, Nick,

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00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 3: you want to target Xavier Bishop in the Montana State

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Speaker 3: Texas Tech matchup.

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00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is another one. I really like Xavier Bishop

436
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 4: under for his points total under thirteen and a half.

437
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:36,359
Speaker 4: You can get that minus one oh five at Draft Kings.

438
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 4: And let's be real, Xavier Bishop place for Montana State,

439
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 4: they haven't faced a defense like Texas Tech, the toughest

440
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 4: defense in the nation. The next closest d they've faced

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00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:49,680
Speaker 4: was all the way back in their first game of

442
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,479
Speaker 4: the year, and that was Colorado, and there're no Texas

443
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 4: Tech in defense, and that game Bishop scored only eleven

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00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 4: points despite that game going the overtime. And as I mentioned,

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00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 4: Texas Tech is gonna be a tough than Colorado and

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00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 4: slower pace than Colorado. Bishop is already somewhat of an

447
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 4: interaccurate shooter. He only has a forty nine percent effective

448
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 4: field goal percentage versus the national age of fifty percent,

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00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 4: and Texas Tech should put a dent in that even further,

450
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 4: only forty five and a half percent effective field goal

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00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 4: percent allowed. They also four forced a ton of turnovers,

452
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 4: so fewer total shots available. If you know Montana State's

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00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 4: turning the ball over a lot. We haven't projected for

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00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 4: a round eleven point seven, so under thirteen and a

455
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 4: half seems like a comfortable under here.

456
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 2: That is a matchup in the West Region.

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00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 3: That is the third game to tip off the number

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00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:40,360
Speaker 3: fourteen seed Montana State, number three seed Texas Tech. These

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Speaker 3: fine gentlemen will join us again next week on the podcast,

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00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 3: so they're not going anywhere throughout the rest of the

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00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 3: month and as March rolls on, so.

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00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 2: Once again you can find Sean Kerner.

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00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 3: He is the director of Predictive Analytics at the Action Network.

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00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 3: One of his newest team members is Nick Giffen, Action

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00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 3: Network Predictive Analyst, and Doug zie Phil is an Action

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00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 3: Network contributor. They do a great job. Make sure you

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00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,360
Speaker 3: keep up with those guys over on the Action Network.

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00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 3: We will be here next week to get you set

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00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 3: on the player prop market for the round of thirty two.

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Speaker 2: Running Glass Sheen's signing

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Speaker 3: Off, Best of uck with your picks and enjoy first

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Speaker 3: round Action