WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 6 NFL Game (Ep. 356) 0:00:01.120 --> 0:00:03.200 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:05.600 your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:07.640 and it's week six in the NFL and you can 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:10.680 believe it already. It's time to find some early lines 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:12.559 that we like that can give us a leg up 0:00:12.600 --> 0:00:15.280 on our competition, to help us look ahead to the 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:17.360 games and where we can find that value. Sam Hoppin, 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:19.920 who joins us every single Monday here, it was a 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:23.600 fun week last week. Lots of early value. Sam help 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:26.040 us find a lot of that, So it's great to 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:27.760 see Sam. It's also great to see a new face 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:30.640 here on the BP side of things, Derek Brown, Debro 0:00:30.720 --> 0:00:33.640 the King of Bros, coming over with us to talk 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.200 a little early line action. Filling in for Pat Fitzmorris 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.360 this morning. Deebro and I Thursday Night Football are going 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:41.199 to be live on our discord by the way too, 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:43.919 talking about some in game live betting for the Denver 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.080 Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Ken the Denver Broncos get 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:50.160 out of their own way. Probably not, but it doesn't 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:52.280 mean we can't make money off of it. And Sam Hoppin, 0:00:52.320 --> 0:00:55.760 speaking of making money it's a really good week for us. Oh, 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:59.080 the latter bet of Devon ah Chan was a big 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.840 money maker. You made the money. I made the money 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:03.720 on it. I hope all of you listening to Friday's 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:06.520 show and my mini monologue made the money off it. 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:08.240 How did it feel to get it in the first 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.160 half to Sam because to me, that was the most 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:13.800 exciting part. No sweat, just right for the jugular seventy 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.920 yard run and we made a lot of cash. 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.840 It was incredible. It was great to see him break 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:22.640 off that long run. I mean he's five yards from 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:26.240 these safeties and then two seconds later he's twenty yards 0:01:26.240 --> 0:01:29.840 from them. I mean, his first and speed is just 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:32.600 absolutely incredible. Being able to get around the corner like that. 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:36.720 I mean, the market clearly mispriced those rushing lines. Well, 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.320 it'll be interesting to see what they have it at 0:01:39.360 --> 0:01:44.400 this week. They have another potentially easy game this week, 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:47.200 so it could be a little bit higher than it 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:47.960 was last week. 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.000 It could be and it's rare that you get these 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:53.240 and which is why you know, we jump on them 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.200 when we see them, and it happens a few times 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.520 a year. It'll probably happen to get at some point, 0:01:57.520 --> 0:01:58.920 but This was the first time that I've done this 0:01:58.960 --> 0:02:01.520 in the NFL season. I've talked about this on the 0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:03.640 MLB show we do on our MLB channel. We did 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:05.480 a couple of times with some strikeout totals, and we 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:09.480 crushed it, absolutely crushed it. Kevin Gosman at fourteen K's 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:11.040 one night we did six and a half all the 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:12.400 way up to the twelve and a half. It was 0:02:12.440 --> 0:02:16.960 brilliant debro. Again, it doesn't happen all the time, but 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.360 there's certainly these opportunities that show up there, and this 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:22.440 is such an explosive player where you have to take 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:26.160 that into account. That being said, yesterday also some huge 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:28.880 overs on a lot of individual players there, even with 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:32.760 high expectations like Jamar Chase had high expectations, still crushed it. 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:36.480 David Montgomery, high expectation, still crushed it. So yesterday was 0:02:36.480 --> 0:02:38.639 a really interesting day in terms of offense. What was 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:40.280 the biggest thing that stood out to you of all 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:44.760 those performances that over delivered that had high expectations. 0:02:45.400 --> 0:02:48.040 I talked about it all week, Joey I said it 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:49.959 was the Jamar Chase nuclear game. I said it was 0:02:50.000 --> 0:02:52.760 the bounce back for him in Burrow man, and I 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:54.760 bet the overs for Chase and people are following me 0:02:54.760 --> 0:02:57.359 on Betting pros dot com slash debro. You already know, baby, 0:02:57.360 --> 0:02:59.840 we're talking about sixty percent. We're back in the w 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:04.160 this week, so I'm loving a man that and I 0:03:04.200 --> 0:03:06.959 also got the money lines for the Saints and the 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:08.359 Jets at plus money. 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:10.720 So it was good week of betting boys. Good week, 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:12.160 and let's kick it over to week six. 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:12.720 I'm ready. 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:14.840 Let's do it. Let's start here and remember at the 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:16.960 top here. Before we even get going, make sure you 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.800 drop a comment below. Subscribe to the YouTube channel here 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:22.240 at Betting Pros because you could win a signed Odell 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:26.760 Beckham junior jersey. It's gonna be vintage pretty soon because 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.240 he doesn't see the field very often, so this is 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:32.880 gonna be a collector's item. This this jersey might see 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:37.440 more time in your living room or your den, or 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:39.839 your man cave or your lady cave than it does 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.960 on the field. Let's still give me yours right now. 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:44.880 All you have to do is drop a comment below. 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:48.480 Man went to our channel and click that little bell 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:51.360 for notifications till it goes ding. All right, let's kick 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:54.840 things off here with Thursday Night Football, Deebro and I 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:57.160 will be live for this and speaking of DFS too, 0:03:57.520 --> 0:04:01.400 As you mentioned, Derek and I on the These podcast channel 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:04.000 here at Betting Pros. It's audio only right now, but 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:06.200 we do our DFS show every single Friday that drop, 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:07.920 so make sure you check that out too. Deebro and 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:11.200 I host in that. Deebro, when we're talking discord here, 0:04:11.320 --> 0:04:14.440 Kansaity Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Casey coming out with a big 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:16.960 road victory, still trying to find themselves on offense. The 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.760 total for this game is fifty one, Derek. We're looking 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:22.080 at the number here, Kansas City ten point favorites over 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:25.240 on points Bet, and then if you like the Denver upset, 0:04:25.320 --> 0:04:28.080 which I do not, plus four twenty five, you're getting 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:32.839 a big number there. Look, the Chiefs haven't looked as dominant. 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.200 Kelsey could be in for a short week miss of 0:04:36.240 --> 0:04:39.240 this game that could also have a big impact on it. 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:41.839 Do you think that this ten might be too much 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:44.400 under those circumstances that just laid out, or do you 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.440 think that the Denver Broncos are that hot of a mess. 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:50.280 I think they're a hot mess, but I think the 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.240 points that you just brought up here, Joe, is that 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.880 if Kelsey's limited, this offense has not looked great. I 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.039 don't want to touch the spread, But as far as 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.320 would really intrigue with this game is I want to 0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:04.680 hit the under on the total. Kansas City's defense has 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:08.080 played extremely well. I think Lugerius Sneed is probably going 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:10.480 to shadow Courtland Sutton. Take him out of this game 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:13.080 because he's been doing in three of the four games, 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:16.200 probably did it last week versus Jefferson two. And the 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:17.839 other part about this is that we need to bring 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.080 up here is both of these teams have been surprisingly slow. 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.880 Kansas City is thirteenth lowest and neutral pace. Denver is 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:28.040 checking in at the eighth slowest pace. So, however you 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.720 want to talk about this game, whether it's Denver falling 0:05:30.800 --> 0:05:35.800 on its face, whether it's the slow pace. The biggest 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:38.800 betting opportunity for this game for me is the under 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:41.320 fifty one that you can get. It looks like unibet 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:43.840 at minus one oh eight right now? All right, Sam, 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:45.719 how do you see this one shaken out here? Any 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:48.200 early value on this Thursday night game, especially with some 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:50.640 potential question marks of Travis Kelcey. 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:54.520 I would totally agree. I mean that I don't see 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:59.400 a reason why Kansas City would stretch it with Kelsey 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:02.520 knowing how important he is to this offense, knowing they're 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:05.320 playing a Broncos team that can easily be beaten. I 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:08.800 think you know you mentioned they haven't played up to 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.359 their potential. I think in week one we saw the 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:15.279 receiver struggle with drops and stuff, and we sort of 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.880 expected that to turn around, but it just hasn't. None 0:06:18.920 --> 0:06:22.000 of them have really stepped up to be the guy. 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:26.599 To Derek's point, Kansas City defense ranks top eight in 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:31.320 most advanced metrics except rushing EPA for play. So I 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:34.119 do think that Kansas City is going to come away 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:38.400 with the win here, but they definitely it's going to 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.479 be I think a little bit more difficult to cover 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:41.400 that ten and a half. 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:43.880 Then I agree people expect I tend to lean that way. 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:46.000 You know what the best bet here is boys Isaiah 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:48.320 Pacheco yardage over. I don't know what that number is. 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:50.080 He took it from me. I was just about to 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.720 say that this is as. 0:06:52.640 --> 0:06:56.360 Soon as they drops, you're slamming the over. 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:58.760 Matter what is bet it? Even if it gets a 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.240 little high on the surface, just at it, because what 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:03.360 do you think it's going to own tap any Joey? 0:07:03.520 --> 0:07:07.000 Like I would say a half matchups see and that's 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:09.680 I was gonna say. I think in most matchups you're 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:12.120 looking at a checko opening in the high fifties or 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:12.960 low sixties. 0:07:13.560 --> 0:07:16.360 Even if he opens with let's steak to the DA nine, 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:19.480 Like you're the data genius, what would you open that 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:20.640 number at check out? 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:21.720 Come on, Sammy? 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:27.200 I probably said it mid sixties issue, okay, because I 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:31.480 sixty six and a half excuse me? Yeah? Sixteens like 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:35.200 an ice number heavy their second in past right over expectation. 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:38.120 I think again, they're they're not going to struggle to 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.840 move the ball through the air, So it's just a 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:43.239 matter of do they get too far ahead where they're 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:45.520 putting someone else in at running back. 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:49.120 All right, let's move on now to the Sunday games here, 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:53.720 starting again in England, Tennessee Titans are home. In quotation 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:55.800 marks and air quotes, forty and a half is the 0:07:55.840 --> 0:07:57.920 number four of this one. You get that over on FanDuel. 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:01.200 Tennessee is three and a half point underdogs in this one. 0:08:01.240 --> 0:08:04.000 Baltimore three point favorites again coming off a bad loss 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:07.600 to the Steelers where they just dropped everything. Sam, it 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:10.880 was obnoxious the amount of draft drops by that wide 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.560 receiver corps plus one sixty two on the money line. 0:08:13.600 --> 0:08:15.400 If you like Tennessee to win outright, which I think 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:19.640 is in play. What's your take early on on this one, Sam. 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:22.200 Let me just say that Baltimore loss was so frustrating. 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.080 It was one of my highest convention plays. 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:27.120 O tell me, I had one piece. It was the 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:30.160 last piece of a parlay five legs. All they had 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:31.960 to do was whin I got four of the other five? 0:08:32.040 --> 0:08:32.240 Right? 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:34.320 Would I won another five hundred? 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:37.439 You can drop every single pass possible. 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:40.199 Anyway, So my rage is real. But continue. 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:43.440 So, speaking of the drops, that the Ravens lost over 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:48.200 five points of expected points on their drops. They just 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:51.480 struggled with the turnovers, obviously the turnover in the end 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:56.480 zone towards the end of regulation. That said, Baltimore I 0:08:56.480 --> 0:08:59.160 think has a top four defense. You know, San Francisco's 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:01.959 up there. I think Cleveland's is up there to Dallas 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:07.080 despite what happened last night, but that defense is playing 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:10.800 exceptionally well. They're getting a little healthier in the secondary 0:09:10.880 --> 0:09:14.240 as well, and Tennessee is just sort of middling at 0:09:14.440 --> 0:09:17.520 a lot of things. Their thirtieth in early down success rate, 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:21.800 which is not what you want to see. So I 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:27.360 take Baltimore with the points again despite what happened this 0:09:27.480 --> 0:09:30.760 past week. And I think the under is also in 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:35.080 play here because Tennessee is a very slow team. Baltimore 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:37.800 I think gets slower and passes a little bit less 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:41.880 this upcoming week after having a two point seven percent 0:09:41.920 --> 0:09:45.360 password to over expectation this past week. They were negative 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.120 the two weeks before, so I think this is again 0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:51.080 it's going to be a similar kind of game to 0:09:51.280 --> 0:09:55.480 what we saw in Pittsburgh this past week. And again 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:58.640 the Tennessee Titans have given Baltimore fits the last couple 0:09:58.640 --> 0:09:59.240 of years too. 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.120 Yeah. See, Also, I love the under. I love you 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:03.920 talked about that too, because you've seen a lot of 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.600 these London games hit the out unders, like the little 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.679 sluggishness that comes out in the travel and all the 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:13.560 chaos of some of these games that happened. I'm actually 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:15.720 on the Tennessee side of the plus one sixty two 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:17.880 just outright. I think that's where the that's where the 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:20.240 value lies. It's just the discipline of looking at saying, 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.240 if it's so close, give me the best odds, and 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:25.040 to me, that's how I make the most money. It's 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.400 the same thing I said on Thursday Night Football, whereas 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:29.439 I don't believe in the Washington Commanders. I said this 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:31.080 on the live shoot to Bogman. I was like, the 0:10:31.080 --> 0:10:32.760 best bet on this is just to bet the Chicago 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:34.520 Bears outright and close your eyes and go to sleep 0:10:34.520 --> 0:10:36.480 and hope you wake up and they win, and you 0:10:36.480 --> 0:10:38.520 know what they did. So I can think at the 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.920 end of the day, Debro, it's my lack of faith 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:43.720 in either of these two teams just sends me to 0:10:43.760 --> 0:10:45.000 the value. Where does it send you? 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:50.280 It right to the money line for Tennessee plus sixty two. Yeah, 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.240 you give me plus odds on a moneyline bet, I'm 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:56.920 probably gonna be interested in that in this game. I'm 0:10:56.960 --> 0:11:00.000 with Sam on I think it's a really good line. 0:11:00.200 --> 0:11:01.880 But if I'm gonna hit the total, it's gonna be 0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:05.640 the under. And yeah, the money line for Tennessee is 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:08.679 what sticks out to me. And again, as soon as 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:11.000 the prop markets open, you can also interest me in 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:14.920 the overs for Za Flowers. We've seen so many missteps 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:17.040 and just miscues and just poor play out of the 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:18.040 Tennessee secondary. 0:11:18.480 --> 0:11:19.640 The target volume is there. 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:21.760 Last week he didn't connect on deep shots. We've seen 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:24.240 Za Flowers a dot go up. So I'll be bet 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.320 in the over for his receiving yardage props and taking 0:11:26.360 --> 0:11:27.360 the money line for Tennessee. 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:29.560 Yeah, he had a couple drops too as some other 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.160 drops yep, but some drops on the lst. Speaking of 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:36.200 the Washington commanders aforementioned, they are going to travel to 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:38.200 Atlanta where they will be underdogs. Two and a half 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:40.760 is the number on DK. You're getting anywhere from forty 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:42.480 one and a half on DK to forty two on 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:45.120 this game over on FanDuel. I feel like Washington to 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:47.880 win on the money line is plus one eighteen debro. 0:11:48.200 --> 0:11:52.000 This is a as Bogman calls him, Jekyl and Howell 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:56.000 situation here where Washington tends to play down to their competition. 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:58.200 And that was part of my argument on Thursday night. 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:01.160 It's like, look, when Washington starts beating teams they should beat, 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:03.520 then I'll be impressed. I'm not impressed as they go 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.160 and they showed up against the Eagles. I'll be more 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.560 impressed when they handle their business against the Arizona Cardinals, 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.680 which they did not really well, and then of course 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:12.319 we know what happened last week. But here you go, 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:15.960 they're traveling. They are underdogs in Atlanta. This is where 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:17.920 the commanders to me are interesting. Are they interesting to 0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:20.520 you a little bit? 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:24.200 I'm like, I feel like I'm kind of like being 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:27.600 seduced by the plus money, the money one. I feel like, 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.520 I feel like it's a trap play, Joe. I feel 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:33.320 like it's a trap baby, So I'm gonna sidestep the 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:36.439 money line for them. The one interesting part here is 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:41.720 it as bad as the Washington defense has been, I 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:43.679 don't want to sit here and invest in the Atlanta 0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:47.880 Falcons offense a ton, but the over for the total 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:51.720 here does make some sense. Atlanta, there are pressure points 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:54.360 at where you can beat this defense. You can run 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:56.160 on them some you can't beat them in the slot. 0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:58.079 You can beat them with tight ends. We know Washington 0:12:58.160 --> 0:12:59.720 is gonna be throwing the ball a lot because they've 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:02.800 done that at pretty much in every single game. So 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.680 a lot of these lines are pretty good. I'm staying 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.120 away from the money line and the spread. I will 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.920 you can't interest me with the over for the forty 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:11.680 one and a half total. 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.160 Here, Sam, I want to pitch you a Hollywood script. 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:16.960 He ready. The Hollywood script is, Desmond Ritter gets benched 0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.440 in this game, Taylor Heineke comes in against the Washington 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.440 Commanders and all hell breaks lose. 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:26.360 What do you think about that if yesterday's game against 0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:29.319 Houston had gone a little differently, I think that's in play. 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.640 But Desmond Ridder played by far his best game of 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:34.839 his career on Sunday. 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:38.560 And eventually I say, bar, Sam, it's a low bar. 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.160 It is a low bar, but I think it extended 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:44.480 the quote unquote grace period he gets with potentially like 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.480 being benched. It sounded like going into the game there 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:52.120 was no consideration at all of starting Heinike in the 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.320 game against Houston. So this is a tough one for 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:59.559 me again because you're probably buying the Falcons at their 0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:05.400 high given what ritterd did this past week. But Washington, again, 0:14:06.280 --> 0:14:08.880 they played poorly in the first half this past week, 0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:12.840 but then almost mounted to come back against granted, the Bears, 0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:16.679 but they did play much better in the second half. 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.800 So I think there's there's a lot of ways in 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:24.120 which game this this game could go. So your Hollywood 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.760 script not out of the question, But I don't think. 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:28.360 I'm just pitching it to you. I don't want if 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:29.120 you want to buy it or not. 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.560 It's like one of those things that gets a pilot 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:33.400 and then immediately gets cancer. 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:36.320 Anything gets a deal in that stands nowadays, So why 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:37.040 not this story? 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:38.480 That's what I think you can end up on like 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.480 Hulu or something I love who. 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:44.200 My My take on this one too is I'm gonna 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.479 wait and I'm going to see if the Atlanta Falcons 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.880 good narrative continues to grow, because if that one eight 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.840 plus one eighteen starts to become plus one fifty on Washington, 0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:55.320 I might jump on that because I this is exactly 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:58.040 the kind of team that lows you into these false 0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:01.400 senses of securities week to week where you're like, oh, look, 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:03.520 they almost beat the Eagles, let's go. They're gonna beat 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:05.560 the Bears. Oh wait, we lost to the Bears at 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:08.320 home on a short week. Gross, Well, then we can't 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.120 have any confidence in them against the Atlanta Falcons. Oh wait, 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:12.760 they just went on the road and beat the Falcons. 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:15.760 This reeks of that to me, It just absolutely reeks 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.400 of him. Another game that I think is fascinating on 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:20.560 this slate, Sam, I want to start with you on 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:22.960 this one. The Cleveland Brown's coming off of buye. They 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:25.720 are five point home underdogs. That defense has been great, 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:27.920 the numbers forty and a half. They're plus one eighty 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.760 eight on FanDuel. They're gonna host the San Francisco forty 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.280 nine ers, who looked like a juggernaut against the Dallas Cowboys. 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:38.120 They sent them back to Dallas on their horses, hurting, 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.920 I mean absolutely embarrassed and hurting in that game. But 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:44.280 we all know this, right, You know, sometimes these teams 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:46.400 coming off these big games here that matter a lot, 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:49.760 sometimes there's a bit of a letdown. Letdowns tend to 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.320 happen when there's really good defenses. I know the Browns 0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.560 offense is struggle bus, but do you think the Browns 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:57.680 defense can keep this game a little closer? Is this 0:15:57.920 --> 0:15:59.920 more interesting than people realize? 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:04.480 No, not at all. The only thing, the only thing 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:07.400 that Cleveland has going for them right now are those narratives. 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.080 It's the leftdown spot for the forty nine ers. It's 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:13.280 them coming off of a bye. But San Francisco has 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:16.640 done nothing but obliterate their opponents. They don't have a 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:20.240 single game on offense between below zero point one EPA 0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:23.680 per play, which is an incredibly high mark on a 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:27.480 per game basis. The Cleveland defense is good, but we 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.040 also thought the Dallas defense was good, and look what 0:16:30.080 --> 0:16:33.680 San Francisco did to them. They have The San Francisco 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:38.600 team has score differentials of twenty three seven versus the 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:42.520 Rams eighteen, nineteen and thirty two. They are blowing out 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:45.880 their opponents. The Cleveland offense is by far the weakest 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.920 unit in this game. They've only had a positive EPA 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:53.440 per play in their game against Tennessee when they exploited 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:57.480 that pass final defense. And I go through each game 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:00.480 before looking at the lines and make a line on 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:02.720 my own. I had this forty nine ers at seven 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:06.000 point favorites for this game, and thank you. I think, 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.560 thank you four and a half point favorites on the 0:17:08.600 --> 0:17:13.920 line right now. So again this the narratives lean towards 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.760 Cleveland and this is a lower total game. But man, 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:23.000 I don't see how this San Francisco team just hiccups 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:26.800 right now. They're humming in every ask right at the game. 0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:29.280 It seems like you have An Ally and Derek Brown 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.120 in the same thought process. By the way, San Francisco, 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:32.960 right now, in betting Pros, the best odds you can 0:17:33.040 --> 0:17:35.560 get for them to win the NFC is plus two 0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:37.919 ten over a FanDuel. It's shrinking. It's at plus one 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:40.359 forty over a DraftKings. This is why use the Betting 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:42.600 Pros app. It's why you download it, because why would 0:17:42.600 --> 0:17:44.280 you want to bet plus one forty We can get 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.840 plus two ten right now. So, de Bro, you seem 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:49.399 to be on the same page as Sam. 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:52.159 I'm like, Joe is queuing this up to sit here 0:17:52.200 --> 0:17:54.160 and maybe be so kind of job. I'm like, I'm 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:55.240 not buying it. 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.199 My role here on the program, you set up interesting 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:00.960 questions for you guys to debate, and maybe there was 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.040 not that much debate on this one. That's fine. I 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:05.760 was like, Sam, don't get seduced by this. Next Monday, 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:09.119 I'm gonna be absolutely relentless if this If the San 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:11.640 Francisco forty nine ers don't do everything you said, I'm 0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:12.840 just saying just say. 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:13.240 That's okay. 0:18:13.520 --> 0:18:15.120 You could sit here and tell it's a fat I'll 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:20.359 I get to come in here and cause chaos and 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:20.960 then just that. 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:22.960 Being said, is it a cake walk here? With this number. 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:24.960 You just lock this to you do you lock this 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:27.040 four and a half in now at vandal you lock 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:29.480 it in right now, set it, forget it. I love 0:18:29.560 --> 0:18:31.639 what Sam brought up because that was the line in 0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:36.679 my head. I was like, this line is wrong, absolutely wrong. 0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.200 San Francisco should be favored by six and a half 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.960 or seven. You need to be betting this now because 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.240 I'm telling you that spread is gonna move more. And 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:46.879 this money line, I'm not telling I'm not betting the 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.359 money line, but minus two ten San Francisco should be 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:51.560 minus three hundred, minus four hundred, like they should be 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:54.320