Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia
Speaker 1: and it's week six in the NFL and you can
Speaker 1: believe it already. It's time to find some early lines
Speaker 1: that we like that can give us a leg up
Speaker 1: on our competition, to help us look ahead to the
Speaker 1: games and where we can find that value. Sam Hoppin,
Speaker 1: who joins us every single Monday here, it was a
Speaker 1: fun week last week. Lots of early value. Sam help
Speaker 1: us find a lot of that, So it's great to
Speaker 1: see Sam. It's also great to see a new face
Speaker 1: here on the BP side of things, Derek Brown, Debro
Speaker 1: the King of Bros, coming over with us to talk
Speaker 1: a little early line action. Filling in for Pat Fitzmorris
Speaker 1: this morning. Deebro and I Thursday Night Football are going
Speaker 1: to be live on our discord by the way too,
Speaker 1: talking about some in game live betting for the Denver
Speaker 1: Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Ken the Denver Broncos get
Speaker 1: out of their own way. Probably not, but it doesn't
Speaker 1: mean we can't make money off of it. And Sam Hoppin,
Speaker 1: speaking of making money it's a really good week for us. Oh,
Speaker 1: the latter bet of Devon ah Chan was a big
Speaker 1: money maker. You made the money. I made the money
Speaker 1: on it. I hope all of you listening to Friday's
Speaker 1: show and my mini monologue made the money off it.
Speaker 1: How did it feel to get it in the first
Speaker 1: half to Sam because to me, that was the most
Speaker 1: exciting part. No sweat, just right for the jugular seventy
Speaker 1: yard run and we made a lot of cash.
Speaker 2: It was incredible. It was great to see him break
Speaker 2: off that long run. I mean he's five yards from
Speaker 2: these safeties and then two seconds later he's twenty yards
Speaker 2: from them. I mean, his first and speed is just
Speaker 2: absolutely incredible. Being able to get around the corner like that.
Speaker 2: I mean, the market clearly mispriced those rushing lines. Well,
Speaker 2: it'll be interesting to see what they have it at
Speaker 2: this week. They have another potentially easy game this week,
Speaker 2: so it could be a little bit higher than it
Speaker 2: was last week.
Speaker 1: It could be and it's rare that you get these
Speaker 1: and which is why you know, we jump on them
Speaker 1: when we see them, and it happens a few times
Speaker 1: a year. It'll probably happen to get at some point,
Speaker 1: but This was the first time that I've done this
Speaker 1: in the NFL season. I've talked about this on the
Speaker 1: MLB show we do on our MLB channel. We did
Speaker 1: a couple of times with some strikeout totals, and we
Speaker 1: crushed it, absolutely crushed it. Kevin Gosman at fourteen K's
Speaker 1: one night we did six and a half all the
Speaker 1: way up to the twelve and a half. It was
Speaker 1: brilliant debro. Again, it doesn't happen all the time, but
Speaker 1: there's certainly these opportunities that show up there, and this
Speaker 1: is such an explosive player where you have to take
Speaker 1: that into account. That being said, yesterday also some huge
Speaker 1: overs on a lot of individual players there, even with
Speaker 1: high expectations like Jamar Chase had high expectations, still crushed it.
Speaker 1: David Montgomery, high expectation, still crushed it. So yesterday was
Speaker 1: a really interesting day in terms of offense. What was
Speaker 1: the biggest thing that stood out to you of all
Speaker 1: those performances that over delivered that had high expectations.
Speaker 3: I talked about it all week, Joey I said it
Speaker 3: was the Jamar Chase nuclear game. I said it was
Speaker 3: the bounce back for him in Burrow man, and I
Speaker 3: bet the overs for Chase and people are following me
Speaker 3: on Betting pros dot com slash debro. You already know, baby,
Speaker 3: we're talking about sixty percent. We're back in the w
Speaker 3: this week, so I'm loving a man that and I
Speaker 3: also got the money lines for the Saints and the
Speaker 3: Jets at plus money.
Speaker 4: So it was good week of betting boys. Good week,
Speaker 4: and let's kick it over to week six.
Speaker 5: I'm ready.
Speaker 1: Let's do it. Let's start here and remember at the
Speaker 1: top here. Before we even get going, make sure you
Speaker 1: drop a comment below. Subscribe to the YouTube channel here
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Speaker 1: your man cave or your lady cave than it does
Speaker 1: on the field. Let's still give me yours right now.
Speaker 1: All you have to do is drop a comment below.
Speaker 1: Man went to our channel and click that little bell
Speaker 1: for notifications till it goes ding. All right, let's kick
Speaker 1: things off here with Thursday Night Football, Deebro and I
Speaker 1: will be live for this and speaking of DFS too,
Speaker 1: As you mentioned, Derek and I on the These podcast channel
Speaker 1: here at Betting Pros. It's audio only right now, but
Speaker 1: we do our DFS show every single Friday that drop,
Speaker 1: so make sure you check that out too. Deebro and
Speaker 1: I host in that. Deebro, when we're talking discord here,
Speaker 1: Kansaity Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Casey coming out with a big
Speaker 1: road victory, still trying to find themselves on offense. The
Speaker 1: total for this game is fifty one, Derek. We're looking
Speaker 1: at the number here, Kansas City ten point favorites over
Speaker 1: on points Bet, and then if you like the Denver upset,
Speaker 1: which I do not, plus four twenty five, you're getting
Speaker 1: a big number there. Look, the Chiefs haven't looked as dominant.
Speaker 1: Kelsey could be in for a short week miss of
Speaker 1: this game that could also have a big impact on it.
Speaker 1: Do you think that this ten might be too much
Speaker 1: under those circumstances that just laid out, or do you
Speaker 1: think that the Denver Broncos are that hot of a mess.
Speaker 3: I think they're a hot mess, but I think the
Speaker 3: points that you just brought up here, Joe, is that
Speaker 3: if Kelsey's limited, this offense has not looked great. I
Speaker 3: don't want to touch the spread, But as far as
Speaker 3: would really intrigue with this game is I want to
Speaker 3: hit the under on the total. Kansas City's defense has
Speaker 3: played extremely well. I think Lugerius Sneed is probably going
Speaker 3: to shadow Courtland Sutton. Take him out of this game
Speaker 3: because he's been doing in three of the four games,
Speaker 3: probably did it last week versus Jefferson two. And the
Speaker 3: other part about this is that we need to bring
Speaker 3: up here is both of these teams have been surprisingly slow.
Speaker 3: Kansas City is thirteenth lowest and neutral pace. Denver is
Speaker 3: checking in at the eighth slowest pace. So, however you
Speaker 3: want to talk about this game, whether it's Denver falling
Speaker 3: on its face, whether it's the slow pace. The biggest
Speaker 3: betting opportunity for this game for me is the under
Speaker 3: fifty one that you can get. It looks like unibet
Speaker 3: at minus one oh eight right now? All right, Sam,
Speaker 3: how do you see this one shaken out here? Any
Speaker 3: early value on this Thursday night game, especially with some
Speaker 3: potential question marks of Travis Kelcey.
Speaker 2: I would totally agree. I mean that I don't see
Speaker 2: a reason why Kansas City would stretch it with Kelsey
Speaker 2: knowing how important he is to this offense, knowing they're
Speaker 2: playing a Broncos team that can easily be beaten. I
Speaker 2: think you know you mentioned they haven't played up to
Speaker 2: their potential. I think in week one we saw the
Speaker 2: receiver struggle with drops and stuff, and we sort of
Speaker 2: expected that to turn around, but it just hasn't. None
Speaker 2: of them have really stepped up to be the guy.
Speaker 2: To Derek's point, Kansas City defense ranks top eight in
Speaker 2: most advanced metrics except rushing EPA for play. So I
Speaker 2: do think that Kansas City is going to come away
Speaker 2: with the win here, but they definitely it's going to
Speaker 2: be I think a little bit more difficult to cover
Speaker 2: that ten and a half.
Speaker 1: Then I agree people expect I tend to lean that way.
Speaker 1: You know what the best bet here is boys Isaiah
Speaker 1: Pacheco yardage over. I don't know what that number is.
Speaker 1: He took it from me. I was just about to
Speaker 1: say that this is as.
Speaker 5: Soon as they drops, you're slamming the over.
Speaker 1: Matter what is bet it? Even if it gets a
Speaker 1: little high on the surface, just at it, because what
Speaker 1: do you think it's going to own tap any Joey?
Speaker 3: Like I would say a half matchups see and that's
Speaker 3: I was gonna say. I think in most matchups you're
Speaker 3: looking at a checko opening in the high fifties or
Speaker 3: low sixties.
Speaker 1: Even if he opens with let's steak to the DA nine,
Speaker 1: Like you're the data genius, what would you open that
Speaker 1: number at check out?
Speaker 3: Come on, Sammy?
Speaker 2: I probably said it mid sixties issue, okay, because I
Speaker 2: sixty six and a half excuse me? Yeah? Sixteens like
Speaker 2: an ice number heavy their second in past right over expectation.
Speaker 2: I think again, they're they're not going to struggle to
Speaker 2: move the ball through the air, So it's just a
Speaker 2: matter of do they get too far ahead where they're
Speaker 2: putting someone else in at running back.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on now to the Sunday games here,
Speaker 1: starting again in England, Tennessee Titans are home. In quotation
Speaker 1: marks and air quotes, forty and a half is the
Speaker 1: number four of this one. You get that over on FanDuel.
Speaker 1: Tennessee is three and a half point underdogs in this one.
Speaker 1: Baltimore three point favorites again coming off a bad loss
Speaker 1: to the Steelers where they just dropped everything. Sam, it
Speaker 1: was obnoxious the amount of draft drops by that wide
Speaker 1: receiver corps plus one sixty two on the money line.
Speaker 1: If you like Tennessee to win outright, which I think
Speaker 1: is in play. What's your take early on on this one, Sam.
Speaker 2: Let me just say that Baltimore loss was so frustrating.
Speaker 2: It was one of my highest convention plays.
Speaker 1: O tell me, I had one piece. It was the
Speaker 1: last piece of a parlay five legs. All they had
Speaker 1: to do was whin I got four of the other five?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: Would I won another five hundred?
Speaker 4: You can drop every single pass possible.
Speaker 1: Anyway, So my rage is real. But continue.
Speaker 2: So, speaking of the drops, that the Ravens lost over
Speaker 2: five points of expected points on their drops. They just
Speaker 2: struggled with the turnovers, obviously the turnover in the end
Speaker 2: zone towards the end of regulation. That said, Baltimore I
Speaker 2: think has a top four defense. You know, San Francisco's
Speaker 2: up there. I think Cleveland's is up there to Dallas
Speaker 2: despite what happened last night, but that defense is playing
Speaker 2: exceptionally well. They're getting a little healthier in the secondary
Speaker 2: as well, and Tennessee is just sort of middling at
Speaker 2: a lot of things. Their thirtieth in early down success rate,
Speaker 2: which is not what you want to see. So I
Speaker 2: take Baltimore with the points again despite what happened this
Speaker 2: past week. And I think the under is also in
Speaker 2: play here because Tennessee is a very slow team. Baltimore
Speaker 2: I think gets slower and passes a little bit less
Speaker 2: this upcoming week after having a two point seven percent
Speaker 2: password to over expectation this past week. They were negative
Speaker 2: the two weeks before, so I think this is again
Speaker 2: it's going to be a similar kind of game to
Speaker 2: what we saw in Pittsburgh this past week. And again
Speaker 2: the Tennessee Titans have given Baltimore fits the last couple
Speaker 2: of years too.
Speaker 1: Yeah. See, Also, I love the under. I love you
Speaker 1: talked about that too, because you've seen a lot of
Speaker 1: these London games hit the out unders, like the little
Speaker 1: sluggishness that comes out in the travel and all the
Speaker 1: chaos of some of these games that happened. I'm actually
Speaker 1: on the Tennessee side of the plus one sixty two
Speaker 1: just outright. I think that's where the that's where the
Speaker 1: value lies. It's just the discipline of looking at saying,
Speaker 1: if it's so close, give me the best odds, and
Speaker 1: to me, that's how I make the most money. It's
Speaker 1: the same thing I said on Thursday Night Football, whereas
Speaker 1: I don't believe in the Washington Commanders. I said this
Speaker 1: on the live shoot to Bogman. I was like, the
Speaker 1: best bet on this is just to bet the Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears outright and close your eyes and go to sleep
Speaker 1: and hope you wake up and they win, and you
Speaker 1: know what they did. So I can think at the
Speaker 1: end of the day, Debro, it's my lack of faith
Speaker 1: in either of these two teams just sends me to
Speaker 1: the value. Where does it send you?
Speaker 3: It right to the money line for Tennessee plus sixty two. Yeah,
Speaker 3: you give me plus odds on a moneyline bet, I'm
Speaker 3: probably gonna be interested in that in this game. I'm
Speaker 3: with Sam on I think it's a really good line.
Speaker 3: But if I'm gonna hit the total, it's gonna be
Speaker 3: the under. And yeah, the money line for Tennessee is
Speaker 3: what sticks out to me. And again, as soon as
Speaker 3: the prop markets open, you can also interest me in
Speaker 3: the overs for Za Flowers. We've seen so many missteps
Speaker 3: and just miscues and just poor play out of the
Speaker 3: Tennessee secondary.
Speaker 1: The target volume is there.
Speaker 4: Last week he didn't connect on deep shots. We've seen
Speaker 4: Za Flowers a dot go up. So I'll be bet
Speaker 4: in the over for his receiving yardage props and taking
Speaker 4: the money line for Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he had a couple drops too as some other
Speaker 1: drops yep, but some drops on the lst. Speaking of
Speaker 1: the Washington commanders aforementioned, they are going to travel to
Speaker 1: Atlanta where they will be underdogs. Two and a half
Speaker 1: is the number on DK. You're getting anywhere from forty
Speaker 1: one and a half on DK to forty two on
Speaker 1: this game over on FanDuel. I feel like Washington to
Speaker 1: win on the money line is plus one eighteen debro.
Speaker 1: This is a as Bogman calls him, Jekyl and Howell
Speaker 1: situation here where Washington tends to play down to their competition.
Speaker 1: And that was part of my argument on Thursday night.
Speaker 1: It's like, look, when Washington starts beating teams they should beat,
Speaker 1: then I'll be impressed. I'm not impressed as they go
Speaker 1: and they showed up against the Eagles. I'll be more
Speaker 1: impressed when they handle their business against the Arizona Cardinals,
Speaker 1: which they did not really well, and then of course
Speaker 1: we know what happened last week. But here you go,
Speaker 1: they're traveling. They are underdogs in Atlanta. This is where
Speaker 1: the commanders to me are interesting. Are they interesting to
Speaker 1: you a little bit?
Speaker 3: I'm like, I feel like I'm kind of like being
Speaker 3: seduced by the plus money, the money one. I feel like,
Speaker 3: I feel like it's a trap play, Joe. I feel
Speaker 3: like it's a trap baby, So I'm gonna sidestep the
Speaker 3: money line for them. The one interesting part here is
Speaker 3: it as bad as the Washington defense has been, I
Speaker 3: don't want to sit here and invest in the Atlanta
Speaker 3: Falcons offense a ton, but the over for the total
Speaker 3: here does make some sense. Atlanta, there are pressure points
Speaker 3: at where you can beat this defense. You can run
Speaker 3: on them some you can't beat them in the slot.
Speaker 3: You can beat them with tight ends. We know Washington
Speaker 3: is gonna be throwing the ball a lot because they've
Speaker 3: done that at pretty much in every single game. So
Speaker 3: a lot of these lines are pretty good. I'm staying
Speaker 3: away from the money line and the spread. I will
Speaker 3: you can't interest me with the over for the forty
Speaker 3: one and a half total.
Speaker 1: Here, Sam, I want to pitch you a Hollywood script.
Speaker 1: He ready. The Hollywood script is, Desmond Ritter gets benched
Speaker 1: in this game, Taylor Heineke comes in against the Washington
Speaker 1: Commanders and all hell breaks lose.
Speaker 2: What do you think about that if yesterday's game against
Speaker 2: Houston had gone a little differently, I think that's in play.
Speaker 2: But Desmond Ridder played by far his best game of
Speaker 2: his career on Sunday.
Speaker 1: And eventually I say, bar, Sam, it's a low bar.
Speaker 2: It is a low bar, but I think it extended
Speaker 2: the quote unquote grace period he gets with potentially like
Speaker 2: being benched. It sounded like going into the game there
Speaker 2: was no consideration at all of starting Heinike in the
Speaker 2: game against Houston. So this is a tough one for
Speaker 2: me again because you're probably buying the Falcons at their
Speaker 2: high given what ritterd did this past week. But Washington, again,
Speaker 2: they played poorly in the first half this past week,
Speaker 2: but then almost mounted to come back against granted, the Bears,
Speaker 2: but they did play much better in the second half.
Speaker 2: So I think there's there's a lot of ways in
Speaker 2: which game this this game could go. So your Hollywood
Speaker 2: script not out of the question, But I don't think.
Speaker 1: I'm just pitching it to you. I don't want if
Speaker 1: you want to buy it or not.
Speaker 3: It's like one of those things that gets a pilot
Speaker 3: and then immediately gets cancer.
Speaker 1: Anything gets a deal in that stands nowadays, So why
Speaker 1: not this story?
Speaker 4: That's what I think you can end up on like
Speaker 4: Hulu or something I love who.
Speaker 1: My My take on this one too is I'm gonna
Speaker 1: wait and I'm going to see if the Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 1: good narrative continues to grow, because if that one eight
Speaker 1: plus one eighteen starts to become plus one fifty on Washington,
Speaker 1: I might jump on that because I this is exactly
Speaker 1: the kind of team that lows you into these false
Speaker 1: senses of securities week to week where you're like, oh, look,
Speaker 1: they almost beat the Eagles, let's go. They're gonna beat
Speaker 1: the Bears. Oh wait, we lost to the Bears at
Speaker 1: home on a short week. Gross, Well, then we can't
Speaker 1: have any confidence in them against the Atlanta Falcons. Oh wait,
Speaker 1: they just went on the road and beat the Falcons.
Speaker 1: This reeks of that to me, It just absolutely reeks
Speaker 1: of him. Another game that I think is fascinating on
Speaker 1: this slate, Sam, I want to start with you on
Speaker 1: this one. The Cleveland Brown's coming off of buye. They
Speaker 1: are five point home underdogs. That defense has been great,
Speaker 1: the numbers forty and a half. They're plus one eighty
Speaker 1: eight on FanDuel. They're gonna host the San Francisco forty
Speaker 1: nine ers, who looked like a juggernaut against the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1: They sent them back to Dallas on their horses, hurting,
Speaker 1: I mean absolutely embarrassed and hurting in that game. But
Speaker 1: we all know this, right, You know, sometimes these teams
Speaker 1: coming off these big games here that matter a lot,
Speaker 1: sometimes there's a bit of a letdown. Letdowns tend to
Speaker 1: happen when there's really good defenses. I know the Browns
Speaker 1: offense is struggle bus, but do you think the Browns
Speaker 1: defense can keep this game a little closer? Is this
Speaker 1: more interesting than people realize?
Speaker 2: No, not at all. The only thing, the only thing
Speaker 2: that Cleveland has going for them right now are those narratives.
Speaker 2: It's the leftdown spot for the forty nine ers. It's
Speaker 2: them coming off of a bye. But San Francisco has
Speaker 2: done nothing but obliterate their opponents. They don't have a
Speaker 2: single game on offense between below zero point one EPA
Speaker 2: per play, which is an incredibly high mark on a
Speaker 2: per game basis. The Cleveland defense is good, but we
Speaker 2: also thought the Dallas defense was good, and look what
Speaker 2: San Francisco did to them. They have The San Francisco
Speaker 2: team has score differentials of twenty three seven versus the
Speaker 2: Rams eighteen, nineteen and thirty two. They are blowing out
Speaker 2: their opponents. The Cleveland offense is by far the weakest
Speaker 2: unit in this game. They've only had a positive EPA
Speaker 2: per play in their game against Tennessee when they exploited
Speaker 2: that pass final defense. And I go through each game
Speaker 2: before looking at the lines and make a line on
Speaker 2: my own. I had this forty nine ers at seven
Speaker 2: point favorites for this game, and thank you. I think,
Speaker 2: thank you four and a half point favorites on the
Speaker 2: line right now. So again this the narratives lean towards
Speaker 2: Cleveland and this is a lower total game. But man,
Speaker 2: I don't see how this San Francisco team just hiccups
Speaker 2: right now. They're humming in every ask right at the game.
Speaker 1: It seems like you have An Ally and Derek Brown
Speaker 1: in the same thought process. By the way, San Francisco,
Speaker 1: right now, in betting Pros, the best odds you can
Speaker 1: get for them to win the NFC is plus two
Speaker 1: ten over a FanDuel. It's shrinking. It's at plus one
Speaker 1: forty over a DraftKings. This is why use the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros app. It's why you download it, because why would
Speaker 1: you want to bet plus one forty We can get
Speaker 1: plus two ten right now. So, de Bro, you seem
Speaker 1: to be on the same page as Sam.
Speaker 4: I'm like, Joe is queuing this up to sit here
Speaker 4: and maybe be so kind of job. I'm like, I'm
Speaker 4: not buying it.
Speaker 1: My role here on the program, you set up interesting
Speaker 1: questions for you guys to debate, and maybe there was
Speaker 1: not that much debate on this one. That's fine. I
Speaker 1: was like, Sam, don't get seduced by this. Next Monday,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be absolutely relentless if this If the San
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers don't do everything you said, I'm
Speaker 1: just saying just say.
Speaker 4: That's okay.
Speaker 5: You could sit here and tell it's a fat I'll
Speaker 5: I get to come in here and cause chaos and
Speaker 5: then just that.
Speaker 1: Being said, is it a cake walk here? With this number.
Speaker 3: You just lock this to you do you lock this
Speaker 3: four and a half in now at vandal you lock
Speaker 3: it in right now, set it, forget it. I love
Speaker 3: what Sam brought up because that was the line in
Speaker 3: my head. I was like, this line is wrong, absolutely wrong.
Speaker 3: San Francisco should be favored by six and a half
Speaker 3: or seven. You need to be betting this now because
Speaker 3: I'm telling you that spread is gonna move more. And
Speaker 3: this money line, I'm not telling I'm not betting the
Speaker 3: money line, but minus two ten San Francisco should be
Speaker 3: minus three hundred, minus four hundred, like they should be
Speaker 3: a lock to beat this team. And I'm gonna put
Speaker 3: pile on top of the beating. Here, give me the
Speaker 3: over for the total. And this is just simply San
Speaker 3: Francisco just putting it on the Browns. I want to
Speaker 3: see it, and I think it's gonna happen. Man, They're
Speaker 3: gonna sit here and beat this spread. They're gonna absolutely.
Speaker 4: Put it on this defense.
Speaker 1: The other thing, this is why we do the early
Speaker 1: line show folks, go ahead. Sam.
Speaker 2: The other thing I didn't mention is Deshaun Watson did
Speaker 2: miss their last game before the bye. Obviously have had
Speaker 2: some time to recoup, but as of Monday morning, he
Speaker 2: was not at practice, so that is something to monitor.
Speaker 2: And if if this isson.
Speaker 5: He doesn't play, forget it now did the team? Did
Speaker 5: the team hold him out or did he hold himself out?
Speaker 5: But either way, I love the point that Sam makes
Speaker 5: here because as soon as that becomes a more generated
Speaker 5: narrative out on social media and things, this line is
Speaker 5: going to move quickly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, All right, let's continue. I'm betting it right
Speaker 1: now as you're talking.
Speaker 4: So man sets it up and bets it. Love it.
Speaker 1: I set it up for kind. It's a professional se
Speaker 1: I want to. But yet, have I not expressed the
Speaker 1: narrative that could be out there, which is a very It.
Speaker 4: Was expressed extremely.
Speaker 1: I also expressed the narrative last week about the New
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. Andrew Rickson oviently me disagreed. I also won
Speaker 1: that argument.
Speaker 5: Because one of my favorite bets last week was to
Speaker 5: tease also lining other people's pockets.
Speaker 4: I got a nice twenty spot front of me, but.
Speaker 1: We but we also teased up when my favorite bets
Speaker 1: on the Betting Pros video I do every week my
Speaker 1: top ten bets of the week teasing up the number there,
Speaker 1: getting the three and a half, or even you get
Speaker 1: four in New Orleans, all the numbers right, just to
Speaker 1: get a better plus money on that. If you did that,
Speaker 1: you cruised. Because the New Orleans Saints abstoually just obliterated
Speaker 1: the do ENG the Patriots yesterday. They now are two
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites on the road. Interesting spot
Speaker 1: here against the Houston Texans. We've also played very well
Speaker 1: winning games.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 1: Stroud poise in the pocket looking good. You're getting forty
Speaker 1: at Sugarhouse, forty one over at Caesar's. You're getting plus
Speaker 1: oney t for Houston to win at home. Now, Debro,
Speaker 1: you're a New Orleans guy. I know sometimes you're tough
Speaker 1: on your own team, as I am tough on my
Speaker 1: DOINGLD Patriots a time too. But here you go. This
Speaker 1: is a fascinating game where all of a sudden, both
Speaker 1: these teams kind of have good feelings coming into this
Speaker 1: contest of good momentum. Who comes out victorious?
Speaker 5: Here?
Speaker 1: Do you see any sort of early value on this line?
Speaker 1: Because it is pretty close?
Speaker 3: Okay, So I would love to tell you that I
Speaker 3: want to bet Houston at plus money to win at home.
Speaker 3: The concern that I have with Houston is Tank Dell
Speaker 3: left with injury. Also, Robert Woods is banged up. This
Speaker 3: offense is going to be possibly at less than full strength,
Speaker 3: and New Orleans is a really good defense. They've played
Speaker 3: out of their mind. So the plus money for the
Speaker 3: Houston money line is a little bit but I'm a
Speaker 3: little bit alluring, but I feel like it's more of
Speaker 3: a trap play. I think that the most enticing thing
Speaker 3: for me here is to take the under on the total.
Speaker 3: This game is going to be slow. Both of these
Speaker 3: defenses have played pretty good to if not, Houston has
Speaker 3: been underrated. So if you're gonna tell me New Orleans
Speaker 3: defense has been playing out of their mind, Houston is
Speaker 3: operating at possibly less than full strength, It's a close line.
Speaker 3: I think that all the things are pointing me towards
Speaker 3: the under, and then I'm just kind of staying away
Speaker 3: from everything else here.
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, how about you? This is a tight one.
Speaker 1: Er You see any early value or is this a
Speaker 1: stay away?
Speaker 2: This is a stay away for me for now, But
Speaker 2: as we get more news on the health of Tank Dell,
Speaker 2: like Debre mentioned, I'm leaning more towards Houston again. I
Speaker 2: said the same thing last week, but it's the better
Speaker 2: quarterback getting the points here. The Saints defense has been impressive,
Speaker 2: but they faced the Titans, the Panthers, the Packers, the Bucks,
Speaker 2: and the Patriots, which is not really a murderer's row
Speaker 2: of offenses to face. And the Saints offense doesn't have
Speaker 2: a single game with a positive EPA for play in
Speaker 2: the game. So I'm going to continue to buy into
Speaker 2: the Houston Texans until the market treats them like what
Speaker 2: I think the average team that they are. I mean,
Speaker 2: they're not the bottom of the barrel team like everyone
Speaker 2: thought going into the season. They've played well above expectations,
Speaker 2: and I don't think the market has adjusted quite enough
Speaker 2: for that yet.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next one here.
Speaker 1: Oh boy, let's go Carolina Panthers zero to five taking
Speaker 1: on the juggernaut Miami Dolphin offense. They are four and one.
Speaker 1: The number on this one is already fourteen. The other
Speaker 1: thing that I put with the New Orleans game was
Speaker 1: again one of my favorite bets of last week as well,
Speaker 1: Miami at the twelve and a half against the Giants.
Speaker 1: Why because the Giants are terrible and Miami can't be
Speaker 1: stopped right now. I know Buffalo stopped them. It was
Speaker 1: more of a detour than a stop. Okay, Miami forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half right now is the total? Forty
Speaker 1: seven and a half over on Bette Rivers, but forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half on FanDuel Carolina Panthers are the upset.
Speaker 1: We're not even to talk about plus six fifty. So
Speaker 1: it's just a matter of fourteen Sam, Is it too
Speaker 1: big of a number? No, it takes a lot. I don't.
Speaker 4: It's a good it's a really good number.
Speaker 2: It's I think it's spot on. This is one where
Speaker 2: I don't have an early lean for. I think the
Speaker 2: number is right on. Fourteen points is is a lot.
Speaker 2: I think Miami could cover it convincingly. But the Panther's
Speaker 2: offense came back a little bit towards the end of
Speaker 2: the Detroit game. Not that they were going to get
Speaker 2: close to winning the game, but they put the pressure
Speaker 2: on a little bit and made a couple offensive drives.
Speaker 2: So it's it's tough. Miami kept the Giants in the
Speaker 2: game from a spread perspective this past week. So I'm
Speaker 2: saying away, I think this game is just gonna it's
Speaker 2: going to be a blowout, but fourteen points is a lot.
Speaker 1: Fourteen points is a lot. However, the Carolina Panthers inability
Speaker 1: Derek to like, the biggest deficit of the Panthers is
Speaker 1: what this year, right, throwing the ball deep, expanding the offense, everything,
Speaker 1: well everything, but that's a that's a big part of it. Right,
Speaker 1: So if they do fall behind, my point of this
Speaker 1: number of still being in play right now is because
Speaker 1: well I don't see them being able to catch up.
Speaker 1: That's the probably literally and figuratively catch up in this game.
Speaker 1: So I'm actually still comfortable with this even though it's
Speaker 1: a huge number. Do you see that also being a
Speaker 1: problem for Carolina where if they get behind or should
Speaker 1: I say when they get behind, that they can't claw
Speaker 1: their way back into it because big plays is just
Speaker 1: not something this offense can do.
Speaker 3: I would have said that more convincingly if I just
Speaker 3: didn't see the Dolphins show a little like allow the
Speaker 3: Giants to have a little bit of life.
Speaker 4: Uh now, yeah, that past six was a big thing.
Speaker 1: Like that was another one, like you take that pick
Speaker 1: six and that mojo away from that. No, that's fair.
Speaker 1: That's the moment where that game is over in quarter
Speaker 1: two two? All right, Well, we got to make sure
Speaker 1: we come out of the half and assert our dominance again.
Speaker 1: Like if you take that that seven away from the
Speaker 1: Giants and give it to the Dolphins, there, game over
Speaker 1: in quarter two.
Speaker 4: That's fair, that's fair.
Speaker 3: I think where I sit with this game is if
Speaker 3: you really believe that Miami truck sticks Carolina, then bet
Speaker 3: the over on the total. That's where I sit with it,
Speaker 3: because I don't want anything to do with the spread.
Speaker 1: I'm with you.
Speaker 3: I don't know if the Carolina Panthers have enough punch
Speaker 3: to CounterPunch the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 5: But what we've seen out of the Miami Dolphins, they
Speaker 5: can hang a forty spot. They could carry this total
Speaker 5: over all by their lonesome this week.
Speaker 3: So as much as I question about how much Carolina
Speaker 3: can CounterPunch, we saw the Giants be able to do
Speaker 3: that a little bit last week.
Speaker 5: If that door is at.
Speaker 3: Least swung open just a little bit, you're talking about,
Speaker 3: the Panthers showed some life versus the Lions. That passing attack. Hell,
Speaker 3: the Miami Dolphins, their offense alone could put up forty
Speaker 3: in this game. For me, the most enticing bet for
Speaker 3: this is to hit the over forty seven and a
Speaker 3: half and the rest of it. I want to stay
Speaker 3: away the obviously know there's nothing for the money line,
Speaker 3: and I think the spread is spot on, and.
Speaker 1: Joe forget everybody they're still oh, so go ahead.
Speaker 2: Good to your point about Carolina crawling back. They allow
Speaker 2: the fifth highest pressure eight on Bryce ru Young. The
Speaker 2: Dolphins defense generates the sixth most pressure on defense, So
Speaker 2: if Caroline is forced to pass it, it's not going
Speaker 2: to be pretty.
Speaker 1: Say fourteen doesn't look so bad, now, does it? Gentlemen?
Speaker 1: You know what else does it look bad? Is you
Speaker 1: winning some free stuff like at Jackson Smith and JIGBA Jersey.
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Speaker 1: joined the NFL contest because we're getting away the JSN
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Speaker 1: today again bettingpros dot Com slash NFL Contest win free
Speaker 1: stuff for just picking games. This one's really interesting. Debro
Speaker 1: on the DFS show on Friday. Here on BP you
Speaker 1: mentioned about the Jamar Chase Joe Burrow restoration project. Well,
Speaker 1: now they're at home against the Seattle Seahawks coming off
Speaker 1: thereby forty six is this number on fandal forty six
Speaker 1: and a half on DK so generally in that same
Speaker 1: spot plus one thirty six for Seattle on the money
Speaker 1: line right now you're getting Seattle at plus three Cincinnati
Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. So do you see
Speaker 1: any early value on this one? Do you think the
Speaker 1: Bengals are just back now?
Speaker 3: I think the Bengals are back, and I think that
Speaker 3: if you're looking at this spread, I don't think it's
Speaker 3: given them enough credence. I think that this is looking
Speaker 3: at the first few weeks of the Bengals offense.
Speaker 4: This is looking at the first.
Speaker 3: Few weeks of what we've seen out of the Bengals
Speaker 3: this spread, I mean, they're only favorite about two and
Speaker 3: a half. This spread should be more like four and
Speaker 3: a half.
Speaker 1: Five.
Speaker 3: I think that this is not giving them, especially at home,
Speaker 3: and what we've seen out of Seattle, their defense has
Speaker 3: been a pushover. Now we're talking about Joe Burrow looking
Speaker 3: more like Joe Burrow, and whether if we get news
Speaker 3: that t Higgins comes back also, this is gonna move
Speaker 3: in the favor of the Bengals. I don't have a
Speaker 3: lot of interest in the total or the money lines
Speaker 3: in this game, but for the spread, I think the
Speaker 3: Bengals cover this.
Speaker 1: Sam, these lines feel about right to me unless you
Speaker 1: really believe in the rebirth of the Bengals, which case
Speaker 1: you jump on this two and a half now and
Speaker 1: you roll with it. Is that where you are, Sam.
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit more apprehensive. I struggle to say
Speaker 2: the Bengals are back after their performance against a bottom
Speaker 2: five defense in the Arizona Cardinals. The concern I have ram.
Speaker 3: Seattle's a bottom five defense too, like they can't pressure
Speaker 3: the quarterback at this point they are pretty side.
Speaker 4: Of Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1: They cannot pressure it to your corner, back to your corner,
Speaker 1: come out singing like Sam, Sam, What do you think
Speaker 1: about that too? Seattle also lines up in that general
Speaker 1: vane though in terms of ranking.
Speaker 2: But I think they have they have more defensive playmakers.
Speaker 2: They're they're coming off of the buy. The issue I
Speaker 2: have with Seattle is their left tackle Charles Charles Cross
Speaker 2: missed Monday Night Football and their left guard, Damian Lewis
Speaker 2: was carted off. Their right guard Phil Haynes was left
Speaker 2: early with a calf injury. So that's that's what we
Speaker 2: call a cluster injury. And if that offensive line is
Speaker 2: missing some of its starters, then it's it's going to
Speaker 2: be a struggle no matter how good the the Bengals
Speaker 2: offense is playing. So I think this is what I'm
Speaker 2: staying away from right now. I think it'll be a
Speaker 2: really great game, to be fair. So I don't know,
Speaker 2: it's just it is really tough again for me to
Speaker 2: see the Bengals doing this again after the defense that
Speaker 2: they faced at And I get I get it, and
Speaker 2: I get the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: Returning Trey Henchterson returning to all the You know the
Speaker 1: points you're making about the offensive line, you saw how
Speaker 1: different that you know, the front there's the pass rush
Speaker 1: was for the Cincinnati Bengals when Hendrickson was back, and
Speaker 1: he was back yesterday and he made a difference in
Speaker 1: that game without a doubt. Next game on this late here,
Speaker 1: Indianapolis at Jacksonville again Gardner Minshew playing in this one.
Speaker 1: They are five point underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: Forty four and a half is the who excuse me?
Speaker 1: Forty five and a half is the number of FanDuel
Speaker 1: forty five at Sugarhouse? Plus one ninety two for the Colts.
Speaker 1: Can the Colts pull off this upset here in your
Speaker 1: opinion because plus one ninety two is a really good
Speaker 1: number here, Sam, and the Colts keep winning games in
Speaker 1: Jacksonville just kind of, I don't know, just kind of
Speaker 1: barely escapes to feel like every single week when they
Speaker 1: do have wins and then the losses, they look like
Speaker 1: a team that's still kind of a really big work
Speaker 1: in progress. What are your thoughts on this one? Real quick?
Speaker 2: This is another super interesting one because we have Jacksonville
Speaker 2: coming back from London after spending two straight weeks there,
Speaker 2: so they're probably they probably have adjusted to that time zone,
Speaker 2: by now and now we're going to have to reacclimate
Speaker 2: to I guess Eastern time zone as they come back,
Speaker 2: and that's something we just haven't seen before. And so
Speaker 2: that said, I do think this should be another opportunity
Speaker 2: for Trevor Lawrence to carve up the Colts defense. They
Speaker 2: the Jaguars allow pressure at the sixth lowest rate in
Speaker 2: Indianapolis gets pressure at the seventh lowest rate. So I'm
Speaker 2: taking the Jags here, but it is it is something
Speaker 2: that again it will be fascinating to see how that
Speaker 2: potential not layover in London, but extended layover in London
Speaker 2: impacts them. I will say, I think this is another
Speaker 2: opportunity to bet the under on Jonathan Taylor rushing yards
Speaker 2: because the Jaguars rushing defense has been phenomenal so far
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 1: It is a two headed attack though with Zach Moss
Speaker 1: as well Debro the secondary here of the Jaguars. You know,
Speaker 1: they give up some big plays here. We've seen that.
Speaker 1: We saw it in London on Sunday morning. We saw that.
Speaker 1: So in your opinion here, do you see any value
Speaker 1: on the clat side of this game or are you
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars favorite side.
Speaker 3: I could see this game going either way. To be honest, guys,
Speaker 3: I think that Jacksonville has shown us that they could
Speaker 3: be a letdown team. Indy has also shown that they
Speaker 3: have a lot of life on offense. So honestly, I'm
Speaker 3: staying away from the spread and the money lines in
Speaker 3: this game. Give me the over for the total in
Speaker 3: this game, and we've already seen this play out.
Speaker 5: They put up fifty two combined points in Week one.
Speaker 5: This total right now, I think should be more in
Speaker 5: the forty six and a half range forty seven ish.
Speaker 5: Indy's operating at the fastest neutral pace in the NFL.
Speaker 5: Jacksonville can put up points versus this secondary, So however
Speaker 5: you want to spice up this matchup, I think the
Speaker 5: pace is going to be pretty good, if not very good,
Speaker 5: in this game if Jacksonville can keep up, and you're
Speaker 5: looking at an Indie offense that can push Jacksonville. So
Speaker 5: not only that, we've seen this runout before, and with
Speaker 5: Gardner Minshew now playing, I think they're gonna be passing volume.
Speaker 5: So the most intriguing spot for this game is the
Speaker 5: over on the total because I just feel like the
Speaker 5: line is.
Speaker 1: Wrong, all right, let's move on to the next game here,
Speaker 1: battle of one and four teams. Minnesota Vikings head to Chicago.
Speaker 1: Minnesota three point favorites in this one. I'm sure you
Speaker 1: know once upon a time when this number opened, it
Speaker 1: was a lot different. Now it's just three forty six
Speaker 1: and a half FanDuel forty seven at Sugarhouse. If you
Speaker 1: like the Bears at home, it's plus one forty four deep, Brod,
Speaker 1: you seen the early value on this line.
Speaker 3: Oh help me, I'm going to take the money line
Speaker 3: for the Chicago Bears. I think this is a game
Speaker 3: where we could see the Bears stack back to back wins.
Speaker 3: They are definitely feeling themselves coming off of that win
Speaker 3: versus the Commanders. Justin Fields looks like he is in
Speaker 3: his bag Minnesota. Again, we're talking about a team that
Speaker 3: do they have Justin Jefferson.
Speaker 4: Their run game is not good.
Speaker 3: Chicago's defense might not be great, but they have been
Speaker 3: a very good run defense. So I think a lot
Speaker 3: of parts and pieces point two. It's Chicago at home.
Speaker 3: I'm ready for a Vikings letdown. Give me the Bears
Speaker 3: money line plus money right now.
Speaker 1: Well, Vikings letdown would be the end of the Vikings
Speaker 1: season here. Do you think that's what we're looking at, Sam.
Speaker 2: End of the season. I mean, I sure hope not.
Speaker 2: It's this is a game I don't really have much
Speaker 2: of a read on. I really don't expect Justin Jefferson
Speaker 2: to play. Kevin O'Connell was pretty pessimistic about his hamstring
Speaker 2: injury following the game, and I think that's I mean,
Speaker 2: he's probably the second most important non quarterback to a spread.
Speaker 2: So it's Vikings still have some playmakers on offense that
Speaker 2: could give the Bears defense some fits. But it's I
Speaker 2: can see this going a number of different ways.
Speaker 3: To your point, Sam, If we get the Jefferson news
Speaker 3: and this total drops, that kind of leads me to
Speaker 3: wait later in the week. And I know we're talking
Speaker 3: about early line bets, but I could see easy scenarios
Speaker 3: with this total drop some and then I'm more intrigued
Speaker 3: on the over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know, makes sense.
Speaker 2: I think that logic could be.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well I have to wait. Look, this is one
Speaker 1: where again, if you like it, you want to jump
Speaker 1: on it real quick here you can. But there's a
Speaker 1: lot here with the Justin Jefferson impact of this game
Speaker 1: that's a guy that moves the needle. New England at
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Gonna keep this one simple for you guys,
Speaker 1: all right, it's the New England is three point underdogs
Speaker 1: on the road as they should be, maybe even more,
Speaker 1: Las Vegas minus two and a half. I know it's
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. They're not great, but forty three is the
Speaker 1: number plus one for for the Newland Patriots for the upset.
Speaker 1: No thank you, I would tease this one right now
Speaker 1: with Vegas past the three and a half. Heck, I'll
Speaker 1: even go to four and a half on this one. Sam.
Speaker 1: To me, the New England secondary has nothing. You cannot
Speaker 1: stop DeVante Adams with nothing. As long as he is
Speaker 1: healthy enough to play again. I know that's questionable'll see
Speaker 1: how he comes out of tonight's game. But to me,
Speaker 1: this is easy. The Patriots are one of the worst
Speaker 1: teams in football. Their secondary has been obliterated. Matthew Judon
Speaker 1: is done. They have no offense, they have no pass rush,
Speaker 1: they have no secondary. Why is this number so small, Sam, I'm.
Speaker 2: Sure it's the injury concerns. Because for me, as long
Speaker 2: as Las Vegas comes out of the game tonight healthy,
Speaker 2: the minus two and a half is a huge value.
Speaker 2: The Raiders offense is probably the best unit on in
Speaker 2: this game. The Patriots defense, like you said, is getting
Speaker 2: torn apart with injuries. Their offense can't move the balls.
Speaker 2: It's confusing. Maybe it's the short week for the Raiders too,
Speaker 2: is contributing to this not being higher. But I like
Speaker 2: Vegas in this game.
Speaker 3: All right, So that's two for two, Debro, You want
Speaker 3: to sweep this, yeah, I would take Vegas. And also
Speaker 3: I'm intrigued to take the over on the total here,
Speaker 3: and I know that sounds gross and people.
Speaker 4: Could look at this total. People could look at this
Speaker 4: total and say.
Speaker 3: Okay, well, New England's not putting up any points, why
Speaker 3: do you care about this? Okay, Vegas is not a
Speaker 3: good defense, and both of these teams are quietly top
Speaker 3: ten in neutral pace, So you're looking at a matchup
Speaker 3: with two pretty bad defenses. A home game for Vegas.
Speaker 3: I could see them putting up points here and really
Speaker 3: good neutral pace of the play volume I think could
Speaker 3: carry this over the total. So honestly, yeah, you can
Speaker 3: give me Vegas covering the spread, and I'm intrigued on
Speaker 3: taking the over for the forty two and a half total.
Speaker 1: All right, let's run through the next couple of games here,
Speaker 1: Detroit at Tampa. Look right now, you're getting Tampa plus
Speaker 1: three and a half home underdogs, which is intriguing. Forty
Speaker 1: five and a half is the number plus one fifty
Speaker 1: on the money line for Tampa. But Debro with all
Speaker 1: the uncertainty with the health of everybody in the Lions,
Speaker 1: I just feel like this one's too early for me
Speaker 1: to get a beat on. Do you agree?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I'm staying away from the spread. If anything,
Speaker 3: I think the total is off on this one. We've
Speaker 3: seen Detroit still be able to put up points. You
Speaker 3: can run, you can pass on the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers
Speaker 3: have have fielded a much better offense than I thought
Speaker 3: they would coming into the season. So again, maybe I'm
Speaker 3: just being positive here on a Monday morning. But give
Speaker 3: me the over for.
Speaker 4: The total of forty four over at DK right now
Speaker 4: and pass that.
Speaker 1: I'm moving on Sam any value here, like if you
Speaker 1: like Tampa at home underdog situation coming off of by
Speaker 1: Is this a trap game for the Lions?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 2: Again, not a trap game. You think all these road
Speaker 2: favorites are in these trap games? No, Detroit is going
Speaker 2: to come in handle their business. They get pressure at
Speaker 2: a thirty nine percent rate despite blitzing at just a
Speaker 2: twenty one percent rate.
Speaker 1: I don't you mean road favorites like the Ravens.
Speaker 2: No, I mean road favorites like the I think both.
Speaker 1: That was just fun. Well, No, I'm just having a
Speaker 1: good time with you there.
Speaker 2: I think they both go into these games and take
Speaker 2: care of business.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's see if Arizona and the Los Angeles
Speaker 1: Rams can handle their business. The Rams five and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites. Forty seven and a half is the
Speaker 1: total for this one plus two twenty five for Arizona. Sam,
Speaker 1: you saw a cop, you saw Pooka Nakua. This is
Speaker 1: a much easier assignment this week here in terms of
Speaker 1: defensive front, you'll have to deal with the Eagles. Can
Speaker 1: the Rams cover this five and a half?
Speaker 2: I think so. Surprisingly, this was the Rams' worst passing
Speaker 2: game efficiency wise this past week against Philadelphia, but I
Speaker 2: think another week with Cooper Cup that offense is going
Speaker 2: to be humming against a Cardinals defense that cannot generate
Speaker 2: any pressure. Is twenty eighth in passing EPA per play
Speaker 2: and thirty first in pass success rate. I think the
Speaker 2: Rams again are going to take care of business here.
Speaker 1: Actually, this number has moved to six. I see it
Speaker 1: right in here already. So you have the best number
Speaker 1: now is six. D Bro, are we jumping on this
Speaker 1: before it gets any bigger?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Jump on it now, absolutely. I think the Rams cover this,
Speaker 3: and I say that, and I'm also willing to sit
Speaker 3: here and take the under on the total. The Rams
Speaker 3: defense has been surprisingly really good, and with the Cardinals,
Speaker 3: zach Ertz is a shell of his former self now,
Speaker 3: James Connor is down, Josh Jobbs looks like he might
Speaker 3: have turned back into a pumpkin. I think that the
Speaker 3: ram could run away with this game and pull this
Speaker 3: to the under.
Speaker 1: The Jets will host the Philadelphia Eagles, who are still undefeated,
Speaker 1: one of two undefeated teams. The Jets are six and
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs at home on DK forty. Two
Speaker 1: and a half to forty is the number depending on
Speaker 1: where you look, the Jets plus two thirty here, So Debro,
Speaker 1: I mean to me, this one's easy. Like you can
Speaker 1: like the Jets defense all you want, I don't think
Speaker 1: they can keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles on the
Speaker 1: offensive side of your thoughts.
Speaker 3: Jets, I mean the Eagles cover. If this was the
Speaker 3: Eagles at home versus the Jets. Get the home favoritism
Speaker 3: here a little bit, this spread should be wider than
Speaker 3: what it is, So I'll take the Eagles to cover.
Speaker 1: Sam. Are you in the same mind too, where maybe
Speaker 1: the Jets are getting too much respect on their two
Speaker 1: and three record right now against this Eagles team.
Speaker 2: I think so. I mean the Eagles are still one
Speaker 2: of the better rushing teams. We saw Denver be able
Speaker 2: to have some success on the ground against the Jets
Speaker 2: this past week, so I check.
Speaker 1: Out did two two weeks ago. Let's not forget that.
Speaker 2: Also, yeah, I think they'll be able to move the
Speaker 2: ball easily.
Speaker 1: This is a fascinating one now because it's a huge
Speaker 1: number and also now the calculus has changed. The Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills are fourteen and a half point home favorites against
Speaker 1: the New York Giants. Sure the Giants are terrible, but
Speaker 1: interesting pieces here. Matt Malano done for the year. Uh
Speaker 1: Tredevi's white done for the year. It's a big piece
Speaker 1: has gone for this Buffalo defense. I know the offense
Speaker 1: has been dreadful here, but if Saquan should be back
Speaker 1: this week? Is it interesting to jump on this line early?
Speaker 3: Here?
Speaker 1: Forty five is the total forty six and a half
Speaker 1: at Sugarhouse, forty five at FanDuel. I'm not saying the
Speaker 1: Giants can win, but can they cover this Sam?
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I mean, I don't know what
Speaker 2: the status of Daniel Jones is at this point.
Speaker 3: If this plays, I seriously Dowdy plays, I.
Speaker 2: Doubt he does too. I think Tyrod Taylor might have
Speaker 2: gotten hurt at the end of the game two, or
Speaker 2: at least something happened to him, So I I don't
Speaker 2: know Saquon Barkley can be back. That doesn't move the
Speaker 2: needle at all for me. I think the Bills should hit.
Speaker 2: I'm much more confident in the Bills covering this fourteen
Speaker 2: points than the Dolphins covering against the Panthers.
Speaker 1: All Right, so you see this one the same thing
Speaker 1: where it's just like Buffalo and a romp despite the injuries, Debra.
Speaker 3: I think the spread is spot on. I really want
Speaker 3: to kind of stay away from it, even though I
Speaker 3: think if you want to go attack it that way,
Speaker 3: then that's fine. I'm more intrigued by the forty five
Speaker 3: total that I'm looking at right now, over on Fandle,
Speaker 3: I would much rather just take the over for that
Speaker 3: assuming and I say this with the assumption that Tyrod plays.
Speaker 3: I think the Giants can push back enough on this
Speaker 3: depleted Buffalo defense, and Josh Allen is going to have
Speaker 3: himself a day, so I think the Bills will carry
Speaker 3: this over the total.
Speaker 1: The offense carries it over the totals supposed to the
Speaker 1: defensive things that are missing? All right, last one here,
Speaker 1: by the way, can we just get the Giants off
Speaker 1: my primetime screen? Please? Can we stop this? For the
Speaker 1: love of God? Dallas going to the Los Angeles Chargers
Speaker 1: Britain the National game again. It's another Sunday night football
Speaker 1: game with the Jets or Giants.
Speaker 2: What do we Oh Joe, nobody you turn your TV
Speaker 2: on for the game.
Speaker 1: This is what I do. I have to watch. It
Speaker 1: pains me, I know, I know. That's the problem with
Speaker 1: the Amazon games too, is I can't DVR them. It
Speaker 1: tries to me crazy. But anyway, Dallas Cowboys, uh licking
Speaker 1: their wounds, go to Los Angeles here to play the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Chargers coming off of bye there two and a half
Speaker 1: point dogs at home forty eight and a half is
Speaker 1: the number plus one sixteen for the Chargers to win outright,
Speaker 1: So it's real simple, de Bro. Does Dallas bounce back
Speaker 1: or do the Chargers continue to pile on this this
Speaker 1: Dallas team after they're reeling from that loss in San fran.
Speaker 3: Chargers at home, close spread plus money.
Speaker 1: Let's go Chargers, roll. I thought that you were setting
Speaker 1: me up for the Dallas Cowboys. Let's go h Sam
Speaker 1: Chargers roll.
Speaker 3: Dallas has looked like a shell of itself on offense,
Speaker 3: and I get that they're playing the forty nine Ers
Speaker 3: and this is not the forty nine Ers defense, but
Speaker 3: also Chargers are going to put up some points against
Speaker 3: this Dallas defense. Losing Trevon Diggs was huge. It was
Speaker 3: it has been huge for them huge.
Speaker 1: Sam. Chargers don't usually handle their business in these kind
Speaker 1: of situations.
Speaker 2: Your thoughts, I'm on the opposite side. I think you
Speaker 2: are getting a chance to buy Dallas at their absolute low.
Speaker 2: They had by far their worst offensive output of the
Speaker 2: season last night. I think this is a perfect get
Speaker 2: right spot for them against the defense that ranks bottom
Speaker 2: eight in every possible efficiency metric. Seems like justin Herbert
Speaker 2: will play. It sounded like he would have been able
Speaker 2: to play had they had a game this past week.
Speaker 2: But I do think it limits their playbook a little bit.
Speaker 2: It sounded like, if I remember Correestley, he had like
Speaker 2: one non shotgun snap after he hurt his hand. So
Speaker 2: I like Dallas minus two here. I think again, the
Speaker 2: Chargers offense might still be struggling to figure out what
Speaker 2: they do without Mike Williams. So I like Dallas here.
Speaker 2: I think they can can take care of business tonight next.
Speaker 1: You get there. Yeah, minus one and a half right now.
Speaker 1: I just see on VP two this wow change too,
Speaker 1: So I have interest that, so there would have a
Speaker 1: little bit of change on that. So again, this is
Speaker 1: why you stay up to date with the Betting Pros
Speaker 1: app Derek Brown, thanks for joining us today, Pinch Hitting.
Speaker 1: Don't forget to catch the DFS show with myself and
Speaker 1: Derek Brown every single Friday on our audio version of
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Speaker 1: out on our Discord Fantasypros dot Com slash chat. It's
Speaker 1: free to join. Go hang out with us talk Betting,
Speaker 1: Talk Live Betting on Thursday Night Football with Us Sam Hoppin.
Speaker 1: Always great stuff from Sam. That'll do it for us,
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for Debro
Speaker 1: and Sam. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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