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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p Joe Pi Zapia

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Speaker 1: and it's week six in the NFL and you can

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Speaker 1: believe it already. It's time to find some early lines

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Speaker 1: that we like that can give us a leg up

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Speaker 1: on our competition, to help us look ahead to the

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Speaker 1: games and where we can find that value. Sam Hoppin,

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Speaker 1: who joins us every single Monday here, it was a

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Speaker 1: fun week last week. Lots of early value. Sam help

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Speaker 1: us find a lot of that, So it's great to

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Speaker 1: see Sam. It's also great to see a new face

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Speaker 1: here on the BP side of things, Derek Brown, Debro

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Speaker 1: the King of Bros, coming over with us to talk

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Speaker 1: a little early line action. Filling in for Pat Fitzmorris

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Speaker 1: this morning. Deebro and I Thursday Night Football are going

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Speaker 1: to be live on our discord by the way too,

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Speaker 1: talking about some in game live betting for the Denver

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Speaker 1: Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Ken the Denver Broncos get

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Speaker 1: out of their own way. Probably not, but it doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean we can't make money off of it. And Sam Hoppin,

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Speaker 1: speaking of making money it's a really good week for us. Oh,

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Speaker 1: the latter bet of Devon ah Chan was a big

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Speaker 1: money maker. You made the money. I made the money

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Speaker 1: on it. I hope all of you listening to Friday's

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Speaker 1: show and my mini monologue made the money off it.

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Speaker 1: How did it feel to get it in the first

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Speaker 1: half to Sam because to me, that was the most

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Speaker 1: exciting part. No sweat, just right for the jugular seventy

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Speaker 1: yard run and we made a lot of cash.

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Speaker 2: It was incredible. It was great to see him break

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Speaker 2: off that long run. I mean he's five yards from

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Speaker 2: these safeties and then two seconds later he's twenty yards

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Speaker 2: from them. I mean, his first and speed is just

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Speaker 2: absolutely incredible. Being able to get around the corner like that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the market clearly mispriced those rushing lines. Well,

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Speaker 2: it'll be interesting to see what they have it at

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Speaker 2: this week. They have another potentially easy game this week,

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Speaker 2: so it could be a little bit higher than it

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Speaker 2: was last week.

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Speaker 1: It could be and it's rare that you get these

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Speaker 1: and which is why you know, we jump on them

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Speaker 1: when we see them, and it happens a few times

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Speaker 1: a year. It'll probably happen to get at some point,

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Speaker 1: but This was the first time that I've done this

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Speaker 1: in the NFL season. I've talked about this on the

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Speaker 1: MLB show we do on our MLB channel. We did

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Speaker 1: a couple of times with some strikeout totals, and we

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Speaker 1: crushed it, absolutely crushed it. Kevin Gosman at fourteen K's

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Speaker 1: one night we did six and a half all the

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Speaker 1: way up to the twelve and a half. It was

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Speaker 1: brilliant debro. Again, it doesn't happen all the time, but

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Speaker 1: there's certainly these opportunities that show up there, and this

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Speaker 1: is such an explosive player where you have to take

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Speaker 1: that into account. That being said, yesterday also some huge

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Speaker 1: overs on a lot of individual players there, even with

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Speaker 1: high expectations like Jamar Chase had high expectations, still crushed it.

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Speaker 1: David Montgomery, high expectation, still crushed it. So yesterday was

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Speaker 1: a really interesting day in terms of offense. What was

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Speaker 1: the biggest thing that stood out to you of all

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Speaker 1: those performances that over delivered that had high expectations.

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Speaker 3: I talked about it all week, Joey I said it

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Speaker 3: was the Jamar Chase nuclear game. I said it was

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Speaker 3: the bounce back for him in Burrow man, and I

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Speaker 3: bet the overs for Chase and people are following me

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Speaker 3: on Betting pros dot com slash debro. You already know, baby,

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Speaker 3: we're talking about sixty percent. We're back in the w

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Speaker 3: this week, so I'm loving a man that and I

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Speaker 3: also got the money lines for the Saints and the

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Speaker 3: Jets at plus money.

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Speaker 4: So it was good week of betting boys. Good week,

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Speaker 4: and let's kick it over to week six.

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Speaker 5: I'm ready.

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Speaker 1: Let's do it. Let's start here and remember at the

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Speaker 1: top here. Before we even get going, make sure you

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Speaker 1: drop a comment below. Subscribe to the YouTube channel here

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Speaker 1: at Betting Pros because you could win a signed Odell

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Speaker 1: Beckham junior jersey. It's gonna be vintage pretty soon because

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Speaker 1: he doesn't see the field very often, so this is

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Speaker 1: gonna be a collector's item. This this jersey might see

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Speaker 1: more time in your living room or your den, or

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Speaker 1: your man cave or your lady cave than it does

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Speaker 1: on the field. Let's still give me yours right now.

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Speaker 1: All you have to do is drop a comment below.

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Speaker 1: Man went to our channel and click that little bell

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Speaker 1: for notifications till it goes ding. All right, let's kick

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Speaker 1: things off here with Thursday Night Football, Deebro and I

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Speaker 1: will be live for this and speaking of DFS too,

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Speaker 1: As you mentioned, Derek and I on the These podcast channel

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Speaker 1: here at Betting Pros. It's audio only right now, but

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Speaker 1: we do our DFS show every single Friday that drop,

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Speaker 1: so make sure you check that out too. Deebro and

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Speaker 1: I host in that. Deebro, when we're talking discord here,

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Speaker 1: Kansaity Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Casey coming out with a big

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Speaker 1: road victory, still trying to find themselves on offense. The

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Speaker 1: total for this game is fifty one, Derek. We're looking

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Speaker 1: at the number here, Kansas City ten point favorites over

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Speaker 1: on points Bet, and then if you like the Denver upset,

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Speaker 1: which I do not, plus four twenty five, you're getting

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Speaker 1: a big number there. Look, the Chiefs haven't looked as dominant.

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Speaker 1: Kelsey could be in for a short week miss of

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Speaker 1: this game that could also have a big impact on it.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that this ten might be too much

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Speaker 1: under those circumstances that just laid out, or do you

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Speaker 1: think that the Denver Broncos are that hot of a mess.

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Speaker 3: I think they're a hot mess, but I think the

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Speaker 3: points that you just brought up here, Joe, is that

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Speaker 3: if Kelsey's limited, this offense has not looked great. I

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Speaker 3: don't want to touch the spread, But as far as

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Speaker 3: would really intrigue with this game is I want to

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Speaker 3: hit the under on the total. Kansas City's defense has

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Speaker 3: played extremely well. I think Lugerius Sneed is probably going

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Speaker 3: to shadow Courtland Sutton. Take him out of this game

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Speaker 3: because he's been doing in three of the four games,

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Speaker 3: probably did it last week versus Jefferson two. And the

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Speaker 3: other part about this is that we need to bring

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Speaker 3: up here is both of these teams have been surprisingly slow.

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Speaker 3: Kansas City is thirteenth lowest and neutral pace. Denver is

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Speaker 3: checking in at the eighth slowest pace. So, however you

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Speaker 3: want to talk about this game, whether it's Denver falling

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Speaker 3: on its face, whether it's the slow pace. The biggest

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Speaker 3: betting opportunity for this game for me is the under

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Speaker 3: fifty one that you can get. It looks like unibet

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Speaker 3: at minus one oh eight right now? All right, Sam,

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Speaker 3: how do you see this one shaken out here? Any

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Speaker 3: early value on this Thursday night game, especially with some

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Speaker 3: potential question marks of Travis Kelcey.

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Speaker 2: I would totally agree. I mean that I don't see

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Speaker 2: a reason why Kansas City would stretch it with Kelsey

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Speaker 2: knowing how important he is to this offense, knowing they're

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Speaker 2: playing a Broncos team that can easily be beaten. I

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Speaker 2: think you know you mentioned they haven't played up to

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Speaker 2: their potential. I think in week one we saw the

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Speaker 2: receiver struggle with drops and stuff, and we sort of

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Speaker 2: expected that to turn around, but it just hasn't. None

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Speaker 2: of them have really stepped up to be the guy.

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Speaker 2: To Derek's point, Kansas City defense ranks top eight in

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Speaker 2: most advanced metrics except rushing EPA for play. So I

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Speaker 2: do think that Kansas City is going to come away

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Speaker 2: with the win here, but they definitely it's going to

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Speaker 2: be I think a little bit more difficult to cover

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Speaker 2: that ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: Then I agree people expect I tend to lean that way.

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Speaker 1: You know what the best bet here is boys Isaiah

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Speaker 1: Pacheco yardage over. I don't know what that number is.

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Speaker 1: He took it from me. I was just about to

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Speaker 1: say that this is as.

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Speaker 5: Soon as they drops, you're slamming the over.

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Speaker 1: Matter what is bet it? Even if it gets a

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Speaker 1: little high on the surface, just at it, because what

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Speaker 1: do you think it's going to own tap any Joey?

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Speaker 3: Like I would say a half matchups see and that's

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Speaker 3: I was gonna say. I think in most matchups you're

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Speaker 3: looking at a checko opening in the high fifties or

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Speaker 3: low sixties.

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Speaker 1: Even if he opens with let's steak to the DA nine,

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Speaker 1: Like you're the data genius, what would you open that

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Speaker 1: number at check out?

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Speaker 3: Come on, Sammy?

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Speaker 2: I probably said it mid sixties issue, okay, because I

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Speaker 2: sixty six and a half excuse me? Yeah? Sixteens like

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Speaker 2: an ice number heavy their second in past right over expectation.

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Speaker 2: I think again, they're they're not going to struggle to

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Speaker 2: move the ball through the air, So it's just a

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Speaker 2: matter of do they get too far ahead where they're

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Speaker 2: putting someone else in at running back.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on now to the Sunday games here,

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Speaker 1: starting again in England, Tennessee Titans are home. In quotation

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Speaker 1: marks and air quotes, forty and a half is the

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Speaker 1: number four of this one. You get that over on FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: Tennessee is three and a half point underdogs in this one.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore three point favorites again coming off a bad loss

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Speaker 1: to the Steelers where they just dropped everything. Sam, it

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Speaker 1: was obnoxious the amount of draft drops by that wide

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Speaker 1: receiver corps plus one sixty two on the money line.

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Speaker 1: If you like Tennessee to win outright, which I think

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Speaker 1: is in play. What's your take early on on this one, Sam.

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Speaker 2: Let me just say that Baltimore loss was so frustrating.

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Speaker 2: It was one of my highest convention plays.

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Speaker 1: O tell me, I had one piece. It was the

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Speaker 1: last piece of a parlay five legs. All they had

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Speaker 1: to do was whin I got four of the other five?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: Would I won another five hundred?

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Speaker 4: You can drop every single pass possible.

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Speaker 1: Anyway, So my rage is real. But continue.

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Speaker 2: So, speaking of the drops, that the Ravens lost over

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Speaker 2: five points of expected points on their drops. They just

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Speaker 2: struggled with the turnovers, obviously the turnover in the end

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Speaker 2: zone towards the end of regulation. That said, Baltimore I

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Speaker 2: think has a top four defense. You know, San Francisco's

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Speaker 2: up there. I think Cleveland's is up there to Dallas

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Speaker 2: despite what happened last night, but that defense is playing

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Speaker 2: exceptionally well. They're getting a little healthier in the secondary

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Speaker 2: as well, and Tennessee is just sort of middling at

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Speaker 2: a lot of things. Their thirtieth in early down success rate,

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Speaker 2: which is not what you want to see. So I

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Speaker 2: take Baltimore with the points again despite what happened this

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Speaker 2: past week. And I think the under is also in

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Speaker 2: play here because Tennessee is a very slow team. Baltimore

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Speaker 2: I think gets slower and passes a little bit less

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Speaker 2: this upcoming week after having a two point seven percent

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Speaker 2: password to over expectation this past week. They were negative

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Speaker 2: the two weeks before, so I think this is again

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Speaker 2: it's going to be a similar kind of game to

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Speaker 2: what we saw in Pittsburgh this past week. And again

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Speaker 2: the Tennessee Titans have given Baltimore fits the last couple

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Speaker 2: of years too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. See, Also, I love the under. I love you

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Speaker 1: talked about that too, because you've seen a lot of

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Speaker 1: these London games hit the out unders, like the little

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Speaker 1: sluggishness that comes out in the travel and all the

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Speaker 1: chaos of some of these games that happened. I'm actually

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Speaker 1: on the Tennessee side of the plus one sixty two

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Speaker 1: just outright. I think that's where the that's where the

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Speaker 1: value lies. It's just the discipline of looking at saying,

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Speaker 1: if it's so close, give me the best odds, and

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Speaker 1: to me, that's how I make the most money. It's

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Speaker 1: the same thing I said on Thursday Night Football, whereas

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Speaker 1: I don't believe in the Washington Commanders. I said this

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Speaker 1: on the live shoot to Bogman. I was like, the

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Speaker 1: best bet on this is just to bet the Chicago

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Speaker 1: Bears outright and close your eyes and go to sleep

223
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Speaker 1: and hope you wake up and they win, and you

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Speaker 1: know what they did. So I can think at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, Debro, it's my lack of faith

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Speaker 1: in either of these two teams just sends me to

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Speaker 1: the value. Where does it send you?

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Speaker 3: It right to the money line for Tennessee plus sixty two. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you give me plus odds on a moneyline bet, I'm

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Speaker 3: probably gonna be interested in that in this game. I'm

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Speaker 3: with Sam on I think it's a really good line.

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Speaker 3: But if I'm gonna hit the total, it's gonna be

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Speaker 3: the under. And yeah, the money line for Tennessee is

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Speaker 3: what sticks out to me. And again, as soon as

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Speaker 3: the prop markets open, you can also interest me in

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Speaker 3: the overs for Za Flowers. We've seen so many missteps

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Speaker 3: and just miscues and just poor play out of the

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Speaker 3: Tennessee secondary.

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Speaker 1: The target volume is there.

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Speaker 4: Last week he didn't connect on deep shots. We've seen

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Speaker 4: Za Flowers a dot go up. So I'll be bet

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Speaker 4: in the over for his receiving yardage props and taking

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Speaker 4: the money line for Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he had a couple drops too as some other

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Speaker 1: drops yep, but some drops on the lst. Speaking of

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Speaker 1: the Washington commanders aforementioned, they are going to travel to

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Speaker 1: Atlanta where they will be underdogs. Two and a half

248
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Speaker 1: is the number on DK. You're getting anywhere from forty

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Speaker 1: one and a half on DK to forty two on

250
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Speaker 1: this game over on FanDuel. I feel like Washington to

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Speaker 1: win on the money line is plus one eighteen debro.

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Speaker 1: This is a as Bogman calls him, Jekyl and Howell

253
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Speaker 1: situation here where Washington tends to play down to their competition.

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Speaker 1: And that was part of my argument on Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: It's like, look, when Washington starts beating teams they should beat,

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Speaker 1: then I'll be impressed. I'm not impressed as they go

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Speaker 1: and they showed up against the Eagles. I'll be more

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Speaker 1: impressed when they handle their business against the Arizona Cardinals,

259
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Speaker 1: which they did not really well, and then of course

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Speaker 1: we know what happened last week. But here you go,

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Speaker 1: they're traveling. They are underdogs in Atlanta. This is where

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Speaker 1: the commanders to me are interesting. Are they interesting to

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Speaker 1: you a little bit?

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Speaker 3: I'm like, I feel like I'm kind of like being

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Speaker 3: seduced by the plus money, the money one. I feel like,

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Speaker 3: I feel like it's a trap play, Joe. I feel

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Speaker 3: like it's a trap baby, So I'm gonna sidestep the

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Speaker 3: money line for them. The one interesting part here is

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Speaker 3: it as bad as the Washington defense has been, I

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Speaker 3: don't want to sit here and invest in the Atlanta

271
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Speaker 3: Falcons offense a ton, but the over for the total

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Speaker 3: here does make some sense. Atlanta, there are pressure points

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Speaker 3: at where you can beat this defense. You can run

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Speaker 3: on them some you can't beat them in the slot.

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Speaker 3: You can beat them with tight ends. We know Washington

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Speaker 3: is gonna be throwing the ball a lot because they've

277
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Speaker 3: done that at pretty much in every single game. So

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Speaker 3: a lot of these lines are pretty good. I'm staying

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Speaker 3: away from the money line and the spread. I will

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Speaker 3: you can't interest me with the over for the forty

281
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Speaker 3: one and a half total.

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Speaker 1: Here, Sam, I want to pitch you a Hollywood script.

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Speaker 1: He ready. The Hollywood script is, Desmond Ritter gets benched

284
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Speaker 1: in this game, Taylor Heineke comes in against the Washington

285
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Speaker 1: Commanders and all hell breaks lose.

286
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Speaker 2: What do you think about that if yesterday's game against

287
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:29,319
Speaker 2: Houston had gone a little differently, I think that's in play.

288
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 2: But Desmond Ridder played by far his best game of

289
00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:34,839
Speaker 2: his career on Sunday.

290
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Speaker 1: And eventually I say, bar, Sam, it's a low bar.

291
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Speaker 2: It is a low bar, but I think it extended

292
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Speaker 2: the quote unquote grace period he gets with potentially like

293
00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:47,480
Speaker 2: being benched. It sounded like going into the game there

294
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 2: was no consideration at all of starting Heinike in the

295
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,320
Speaker 2: game against Houston. So this is a tough one for

296
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Speaker 2: me again because you're probably buying the Falcons at their

297
00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 2: high given what ritterd did this past week. But Washington, again,

298
00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:08,880
Speaker 2: they played poorly in the first half this past week,

299
00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:12,840
Speaker 2: but then almost mounted to come back against granted, the Bears,

300
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Speaker 2: but they did play much better in the second half.

301
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,800
Speaker 2: So I think there's there's a lot of ways in

302
00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 2: which game this this game could go. So your Hollywood

303
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,760
Speaker 2: script not out of the question, But I don't think.

304
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Speaker 1: I'm just pitching it to you. I don't want if

305
00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:29,120
Speaker 1: you want to buy it or not.

306
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,560
Speaker 3: It's like one of those things that gets a pilot

307
00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,400
Speaker 3: and then immediately gets cancer.

308
00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 1: Anything gets a deal in that stands nowadays, So why

309
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:37,040
Speaker 1: not this story?

310
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 4: That's what I think you can end up on like

311
00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,480
Speaker 4: Hulu or something I love who.

312
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Speaker 1: My My take on this one too is I'm gonna

313
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,479
Speaker 1: wait and I'm going to see if the Atlanta Falcons

314
00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,880
Speaker 1: good narrative continues to grow, because if that one eight

315
00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:52,840
Speaker 1: plus one eighteen starts to become plus one fifty on Washington,

316
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,320
Speaker 1: I might jump on that because I this is exactly

317
00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,040
Speaker 1: the kind of team that lows you into these false

318
00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,400
Speaker 1: senses of securities week to week where you're like, oh, look,

319
00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,520
Speaker 1: they almost beat the Eagles, let's go. They're gonna beat

320
00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,560
Speaker 1: the Bears. Oh wait, we lost to the Bears at

321
00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:08,320
Speaker 1: home on a short week. Gross, Well, then we can't

322
00:15:08,360 --> 00:15:11,120
Speaker 1: have any confidence in them against the Atlanta Falcons. Oh wait,

323
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:12,760
Speaker 1: they just went on the road and beat the Falcons.

324
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Speaker 1: This reeks of that to me, It just absolutely reeks

325
00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:18,400
Speaker 1: of him. Another game that I think is fascinating on

326
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Speaker 1: this slate, Sam, I want to start with you on

327
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,960
Speaker 1: this one. The Cleveland Brown's coming off of buye. They

328
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,720
Speaker 1: are five point home underdogs. That defense has been great,

329
00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:27,920
Speaker 1: the numbers forty and a half. They're plus one eighty

330
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,760
Speaker 1: eight on FanDuel. They're gonna host the San Francisco forty

331
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,280
Speaker 1: nine ers, who looked like a juggernaut against the Dallas Cowboys.

332
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:38,120
Speaker 1: They sent them back to Dallas on their horses, hurting,

333
00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,920
Speaker 1: I mean absolutely embarrassed and hurting in that game. But

334
00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,280
Speaker 1: we all know this, right, You know, sometimes these teams

335
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,400
Speaker 1: coming off these big games here that matter a lot,

336
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,760
Speaker 1: sometimes there's a bit of a letdown. Letdowns tend to

337
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 1: happen when there's really good defenses. I know the Browns

338
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,560
Speaker 1: offense is struggle bus, but do you think the Browns

339
00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 1: defense can keep this game a little closer? Is this

340
00:15:57,920 --> 00:15:59,920
Speaker 1: more interesting than people realize?

341
00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 2: No, not at all. The only thing, the only thing

342
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 2: that Cleveland has going for them right now are those narratives.

343
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,080
Speaker 2: It's the leftdown spot for the forty nine ers. It's

344
00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:13,280
Speaker 2: them coming off of a bye. But San Francisco has

345
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:16,640
Speaker 2: done nothing but obliterate their opponents. They don't have a

346
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 2: single game on offense between below zero point one EPA

347
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,680
Speaker 2: per play, which is an incredibly high mark on a

348
00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,480
Speaker 2: per game basis. The Cleveland defense is good, but we

349
00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 2: also thought the Dallas defense was good, and look what

350
00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 2: San Francisco did to them. They have The San Francisco

351
00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:38,600
Speaker 2: team has score differentials of twenty three seven versus the

352
00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 2: Rams eighteen, nineteen and thirty two. They are blowing out

353
00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,880
Speaker 2: their opponents. The Cleveland offense is by far the weakest

354
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,920
Speaker 2: unit in this game. They've only had a positive EPA

355
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 2: per play in their game against Tennessee when they exploited

356
00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 2: that pass final defense. And I go through each game

357
00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 2: before looking at the lines and make a line on

358
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 2: my own. I had this forty nine ers at seven

359
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,000
Speaker 2: point favorites for this game, and thank you. I think,

360
00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:08,560
Speaker 2: thank you four and a half point favorites on the

361
00:17:08,600 --> 00:17:13,920
Speaker 2: line right now. So again this the narratives lean towards

362
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,760
Speaker 2: Cleveland and this is a lower total game. But man,

363
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 2: I don't see how this San Francisco team just hiccups

364
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,800
Speaker 2: right now. They're humming in every ask right at the game.

365
00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,280
Speaker 1: It seems like you have An Ally and Derek Brown

366
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,120
Speaker 1: in the same thought process. By the way, San Francisco,

367
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:32,960
Speaker 1: right now, in betting Pros, the best odds you can

368
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 1: get for them to win the NFC is plus two

369
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,919
Speaker 1: ten over a FanDuel. It's shrinking. It's at plus one

370
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,359
Speaker 1: forty over a DraftKings. This is why use the Betting

371
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,600
Speaker 1: Pros app. It's why you download it, because why would

372
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,280
Speaker 1: you want to bet plus one forty We can get

373
00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:47,840
Speaker 1: plus two ten right now. So, de Bro, you seem

374
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,399
Speaker 1: to be on the same page as Sam.

375
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,159
Speaker 4: I'm like, Joe is queuing this up to sit here

376
00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:54,160
Speaker 4: and maybe be so kind of job. I'm like, I'm

377
00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 4: not buying it.

378
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,199
Speaker 1: My role here on the program, you set up interesting

379
00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,960
Speaker 1: questions for you guys to debate, and maybe there was

380
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 1: not that much debate on this one. That's fine. I

381
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,760
Speaker 1: was like, Sam, don't get seduced by this. Next Monday,

382
00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be absolutely relentless if this If the San

383
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,640
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers don't do everything you said, I'm

384
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 1: just saying just say.

385
00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 4: That's okay.

386
00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:15,120
Speaker 5: You could sit here and tell it's a fat I'll

387
00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:20,359
Speaker 5: I get to come in here and cause chaos and

388
00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:20,960
Speaker 5: then just that.

389
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 1: Being said, is it a cake walk here? With this number.

390
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:24,960
Speaker 3: You just lock this to you do you lock this

391
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 3: four and a half in now at vandal you lock

392
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,480
Speaker 3: it in right now, set it, forget it. I love

393
00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:31,639
Speaker 3: what Sam brought up because that was the line in

394
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 3: my head. I was like, this line is wrong, absolutely wrong.

395
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 3: San Francisco should be favored by six and a half

396
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 3: or seven. You need to be betting this now because

397
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 3: I'm telling you that spread is gonna move more. And

398
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,879
Speaker 3: this money line, I'm not telling I'm not betting the

399
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 3: money line, but minus two ten San Francisco should be

400
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 3: minus three hundred, minus four hundred, like they should be

401
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 3: a lock to beat this team. And I'm gonna put

402
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,879
Speaker 3: pile on top of the beating. Here, give me the

403
00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 3: over for the total. And this is just simply San

404
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 3: Francisco just putting it on the Browns. I want to

405
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 3: see it, and I think it's gonna happen. Man, They're

406
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 3: gonna sit here and beat this spread. They're gonna absolutely.

407
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:09,320
Speaker 4: Put it on this defense.

408
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 1: The other thing, this is why we do the early

409
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 1: line show folks, go ahead. Sam.

410
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 2: The other thing I didn't mention is Deshaun Watson did

411
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,760
Speaker 2: miss their last game before the bye. Obviously have had

412
00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 2: some time to recoup, but as of Monday morning, he

413
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 2: was not at practice, so that is something to monitor.

414
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,960
Speaker 2: And if if this isson.

415
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 5: He doesn't play, forget it now did the team? Did

416
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 5: the team hold him out or did he hold himself out?

417
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 5: But either way, I love the point that Sam makes

418
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 5: here because as soon as that becomes a more generated

419
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:43,439
Speaker 5: narrative out on social media and things, this line is

420
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,440
Speaker 5: going to move quickly.

421
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, All right, let's continue. I'm betting it right

422
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 1: now as you're talking.

423
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 4: So man sets it up and bets it. Love it.

424
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,240
Speaker 1: I set it up for kind. It's a professional se

425
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 1: I want to. But yet, have I not expressed the

426
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 1: narrative that could be out there, which is a very It.

427
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,240
Speaker 4: Was expressed extremely.

428
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,719
Speaker 1: I also expressed the narrative last week about the New

429
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:15,360
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. Andrew Rickson oviently me disagreed. I also won

430
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 1: that argument.

431
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,199
Speaker 5: Because one of my favorite bets last week was to

432
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 5: tease also lining other people's pockets.

433
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 4: I got a nice twenty spot front of me, but.

434
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 1: We but we also teased up when my favorite bets

435
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,159
Speaker 1: on the Betting Pros video I do every week my

436
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: top ten bets of the week teasing up the number there,

437
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 1: getting the three and a half, or even you get

438
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,200
Speaker 1: four in New Orleans, all the numbers right, just to

439
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,120
Speaker 1: get a better plus money on that. If you did that,

440
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 1: you cruised. Because the New Orleans Saints abstoually just obliterated

441
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,679
Speaker 1: the do ENG the Patriots yesterday. They now are two

442
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites on the road. Interesting spot

443
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 1: here against the Houston Texans. We've also played very well

444
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 1: winning games.

445
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 2: C J.

446
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 1: Stroud poise in the pocket looking good. You're getting forty

447
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 1: at Sugarhouse, forty one over at Caesar's. You're getting plus

448
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 1: oney t for Houston to win at home. Now, Debro,

449
00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 1: you're a New Orleans guy. I know sometimes you're tough

450
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 1: on your own team, as I am tough on my

451
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,719
Speaker 1: DOINGLD Patriots a time too. But here you go. This

452
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 1: is a fascinating game where all of a sudden, both

453
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,119
Speaker 1: these teams kind of have good feelings coming into this

454
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 1: contest of good momentum. Who comes out victorious?

455
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 5: Here?

456
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 1: Do you see any sort of early value on this line?

457
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 1: Because it is pretty close?

458
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 3: Okay, So I would love to tell you that I

459
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 3: want to bet Houston at plus money to win at home.

460
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,720
Speaker 3: The concern that I have with Houston is Tank Dell

461
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 3: left with injury. Also, Robert Woods is banged up. This

462
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 3: offense is going to be possibly at less than full strength,

463
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 3: and New Orleans is a really good defense. They've played

464
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 3: out of their mind. So the plus money for the

465
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 3: Houston money line is a little bit but I'm a

466
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 3: little bit alluring, but I feel like it's more of

467
00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 3: a trap play. I think that the most enticing thing

468
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 3: for me here is to take the under on the total.

469
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 3: This game is going to be slow. Both of these

470
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 3: defenses have played pretty good to if not, Houston has

471
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 3: been underrated. So if you're gonna tell me New Orleans

472
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 3: defense has been playing out of their mind, Houston is

473
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 3: operating at possibly less than full strength, It's a close line.

474
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 3: I think that all the things are pointing me towards

475
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 3: the under, and then I'm just kind of staying away

476
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 3: from everything else here.

477
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, how about you? This is a tight one.

478
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: Er You see any early value or is this a

479
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 1: stay away?

480
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 2: This is a stay away for me for now, But

481
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: as we get more news on the health of Tank Dell,

482
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: like Debre mentioned, I'm leaning more towards Houston again. I

483
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 2: said the same thing last week, but it's the better

484
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 2: quarterback getting the points here. The Saints defense has been impressive,

485
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 2: but they faced the Titans, the Panthers, the Packers, the Bucks,

486
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 2: and the Patriots, which is not really a murderer's row

487
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 2: of offenses to face. And the Saints offense doesn't have

488
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: a single game with a positive EPA for play in

489
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 2: the game. So I'm going to continue to buy into

490
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 2: the Houston Texans until the market treats them like what

491
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 2: I think the average team that they are. I mean,

492
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 2: they're not the bottom of the barrel team like everyone

493
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 2: thought going into the season. They've played well above expectations,

494
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 2: and I don't think the market has adjusted quite enough

495
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 2: for that yet.

496
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the next one here.

497
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 1: Oh boy, let's go Carolina Panthers zero to five taking

498
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: on the juggernaut Miami Dolphin offense. They are four and one.

499
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: The number on this one is already fourteen. The other

500
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 1: thing that I put with the New Orleans game was

501
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 1: again one of my favorite bets of last week as well,

502
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 1: Miami at the twelve and a half against the Giants.

503
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: Why because the Giants are terrible and Miami can't be

504
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 1: stopped right now. I know Buffalo stopped them. It was

505
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 1: more of a detour than a stop. Okay, Miami forty

506
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: eight and a half right now is the total? Forty

507
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 1: seven and a half over on Bette Rivers, but forty

508
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: eight and a half on FanDuel Carolina Panthers are the upset.

509
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,399
Speaker 1: We're not even to talk about plus six fifty. So

510
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 1: it's just a matter of fourteen Sam, Is it too

511
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 1: big of a number? No, it takes a lot. I don't.

512
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 4: It's a good it's a really good number.

513
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 2: It's I think it's spot on. This is one where

514
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 2: I don't have an early lean for. I think the

515
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 2: number is right on. Fourteen points is is a lot.

516
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 2: I think Miami could cover it convincingly. But the Panther's

517
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: offense came back a little bit towards the end of

518
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 2: the Detroit game. Not that they were going to get

519
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: close to winning the game, but they put the pressure

520
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 2: on a little bit and made a couple offensive drives.

521
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 2: So it's it's tough. Miami kept the Giants in the

522
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: game from a spread perspective this past week. So I'm

523
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: saying away, I think this game is just gonna it's

524
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,359
Speaker 2: going to be a blowout, but fourteen points is a lot.

525
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: Fourteen points is a lot. However, the Carolina Panthers inability

526
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: Derek to like, the biggest deficit of the Panthers is

527
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: what this year, right, throwing the ball deep, expanding the offense, everything,

528
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: well everything, but that's a that's a big part of it. Right,

529
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,439
Speaker 1: So if they do fall behind, my point of this

530
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 1: number of still being in play right now is because

531
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 1: well I don't see them being able to catch up.

532
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 1: That's the probably literally and figuratively catch up in this game.

533
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: So I'm actually still comfortable with this even though it's

534
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: a huge number. Do you see that also being a

535
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: problem for Carolina where if they get behind or should

536
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 1: I say when they get behind, that they can't claw

537
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 1: their way back into it because big plays is just

538
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:34,640
Speaker 1: not something this offense can do.

539
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 3: I would have said that more convincingly if I just

540
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 3: didn't see the Dolphins show a little like allow the

541
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 3: Giants to have a little bit of life.

542
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 4: Uh now, yeah, that past six was a big thing.

543
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: Like that was another one, like you take that pick

544
00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: six and that mojo away from that. No, that's fair.

545
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 1: That's the moment where that game is over in quarter

546
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: two two? All right, Well, we got to make sure

547
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 1: we come out of the half and assert our dominance again.

548
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 1: Like if you take that that seven away from the

549
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 1: Giants and give it to the Dolphins, there, game over

550
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:03,439
Speaker 1: in quarter two.

551
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 4: That's fair, that's fair.

552
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 3: I think where I sit with this game is if

553
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,400
Speaker 3: you really believe that Miami truck sticks Carolina, then bet

554
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 3: the over on the total. That's where I sit with it,

555
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 3: because I don't want anything to do with the spread.

556
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: I'm with you.

557
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 3: I don't know if the Carolina Panthers have enough punch

558
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 3: to CounterPunch the Miami Dolphins.

559
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 5: But what we've seen out of the Miami Dolphins, they

560
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 5: can hang a forty spot. They could carry this total

561
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,920
Speaker 5: over all by their lonesome this week.

562
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 3: So as much as I question about how much Carolina

563
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 3: can CounterPunch, we saw the Giants be able to do

564
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 3: that a little bit last week.

565
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 5: If that door is at.

566
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 3: Least swung open just a little bit, you're talking about,

567
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 3: the Panthers showed some life versus the Lions. That passing attack. Hell,

568
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,479
Speaker 3: the Miami Dolphins, their offense alone could put up forty

569
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: in this game. For me, the most enticing bet for

570
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 3: this is to hit the over forty seven and a

571
00:26:57,880 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 3: half and the rest of it. I want to stay

572
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 3: away the obviously know there's nothing for the money line,

573
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 3: and I think the spread is spot on, and.

574
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 1: Joe forget everybody they're still oh, so go ahead.

575
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 2: Good to your point about Carolina crawling back. They allow

576
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 2: the fifth highest pressure eight on Bryce ru Young. The

577
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 2: Dolphins defense generates the sixth most pressure on defense, So

578
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,479
Speaker 2: if Caroline is forced to pass it, it's not going

579
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 2: to be pretty.

580
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: Say fourteen doesn't look so bad, now, does it? Gentlemen?

581
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: You know what else does it look bad? Is you

582
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,719
Speaker 1: winning some free stuff like at Jackson Smith and JIGBA Jersey.

583
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: By the way, all you gotta do is make picks

584
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: at the NFL contest. We've got running Bettingpros dot Com

585
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: slash NFL Contest. That's what you got to do. Or

586
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: if you have the VP app, which I know you

587
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: do by now, you drop down that community tab you

588
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 1: joined the NFL contest because we're getting away the JSN

589
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: Jersey weekly prizes, monthly prizes, upgrades, the Fantasy Pros Premium

590
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 1: to Betting Pros Premium. Swag from our VP and FP

591
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 1: shops can be yours for just picking games. You don't

592
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 1: even have to have sports wagering legal in your state

593
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 1: to join and have some fun and picks games and

594
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 1: see if you're right. So go join the NFL contest

595
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,640
Speaker 1: today again bettingpros dot Com slash NFL Contest win free

596
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 1: stuff for just picking games. This one's really interesting. Debro

597
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 1: on the DFS show on Friday. Here on BP you

598
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 1: mentioned about the Jamar Chase Joe Burrow restoration project. Well,

599
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: now they're at home against the Seattle Seahawks coming off

600
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: thereby forty six is this number on fandal forty six

601
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: and a half on DK so generally in that same

602
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: spot plus one thirty six for Seattle on the money

603
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 1: line right now you're getting Seattle at plus three Cincinnati

604
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. So do you see

605
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 1: any early value on this one? Do you think the

606
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 1: Bengals are just back now?

607
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 3: I think the Bengals are back, and I think that

608
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 3: if you're looking at this spread, I don't think it's

609
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: given them enough credence. I think that this is looking

610
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 3: at the first few weeks of the Bengals offense.

611
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 4: This is looking at the first.

612
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 3: Few weeks of what we've seen out of the Bengals

613
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 3: this spread, I mean, they're only favorite about two and

614
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 3: a half. This spread should be more like four and

615
00:28:58,520 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 3: a half.

616
00:28:58,920 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: Five.

617
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: I think that this is not giving them, especially at home,

618
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 3: and what we've seen out of Seattle, their defense has

619
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 3: been a pushover. Now we're talking about Joe Burrow looking

620
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 3: more like Joe Burrow, and whether if we get news

621
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 3: that t Higgins comes back also, this is gonna move

622
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 3: in the favor of the Bengals. I don't have a

623
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 3: lot of interest in the total or the money lines

624
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 3: in this game, but for the spread, I think the

625
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:23,479
Speaker 3: Bengals cover this.

626
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: Sam, these lines feel about right to me unless you

627
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 1: really believe in the rebirth of the Bengals, which case

628
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: you jump on this two and a half now and

629
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: you roll with it. Is that where you are, Sam.

630
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit more apprehensive. I struggle to say

631
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 2: the Bengals are back after their performance against a bottom

632
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 2: five defense in the Arizona Cardinals. The concern I have ram.

633
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 3: Seattle's a bottom five defense too, like they can't pressure

634
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 3: the quarterback at this point they are pretty side.

635
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 4: Of Daniel Jones.

636
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: They cannot pressure it to your corner, back to your corner,

637
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: come out singing like Sam, Sam, What do you think

638
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 1: about that too? Seattle also lines up in that general

639
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:02,240
Speaker 1: vane though in terms of ranking.

640
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 2: But I think they have they have more defensive playmakers.

641
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 2: They're they're coming off of the buy. The issue I

642
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 2: have with Seattle is their left tackle Charles Charles Cross

643
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 2: missed Monday Night Football and their left guard, Damian Lewis

644
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 2: was carted off. Their right guard Phil Haynes was left

645
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: early with a calf injury. So that's that's what we

646
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: call a cluster injury. And if that offensive line is

647
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 2: missing some of its starters, then it's it's going to

648
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 2: be a struggle no matter how good the the Bengals

649
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 2: offense is playing. So I think this is what I'm

650
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 2: staying away from right now. I think it'll be a

651
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,479
Speaker 2: really great game, to be fair. So I don't know,

652
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: it's just it is really tough again for me to

653
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: see the Bengals doing this again after the defense that

654
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 2: they faced at And I get I get it, and

655
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 2: I get the Seahawks.

656
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: Returning Trey Henchterson returning to all the You know the

657
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 1: points you're making about the offensive line, you saw how

658
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: different that you know, the front there's the pass rush

659
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: was for the Cincinnati Bengals when Hendrickson was back, and

660
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 1: he was back yesterday and he made a difference in

661
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 1: that game without a doubt. Next game on this late here,

662
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: Indianapolis at Jacksonville again Gardner Minshew playing in this one.

663
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,000
Speaker 1: They are five point underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.

664
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: Forty four and a half is the who excuse me?

665
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 1: Forty five and a half is the number of FanDuel

666
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: forty five at Sugarhouse? Plus one ninety two for the Colts.

667
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 1: Can the Colts pull off this upset here in your

668
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: opinion because plus one ninety two is a really good

669
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: number here, Sam, and the Colts keep winning games in

670
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 1: Jacksonville just kind of, I don't know, just kind of

671
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: barely escapes to feel like every single week when they

672
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: do have wins and then the losses, they look like

673
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 1: a team that's still kind of a really big work

674
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: in progress. What are your thoughts on this one? Real quick?

675
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 2: This is another super interesting one because we have Jacksonville

676
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: coming back from London after spending two straight weeks there,

677
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 2: so they're probably they probably have adjusted to that time zone,

678
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 2: by now and now we're going to have to reacclimate

679
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 2: to I guess Eastern time zone as they come back,

680
00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 2: and that's something we just haven't seen before. And so

681
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 2: that said, I do think this should be another opportunity

682
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 2: for Trevor Lawrence to carve up the Colts defense. They

683
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: the Jaguars allow pressure at the sixth lowest rate in

684
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 2: Indianapolis gets pressure at the seventh lowest rate. So I'm

685
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 2: taking the Jags here, but it is it is something

686
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 2: that again it will be fascinating to see how that

687
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 2: potential not layover in London, but extended layover in London

688
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 2: impacts them. I will say, I think this is another

689
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 2: opportunity to bet the under on Jonathan Taylor rushing yards

690
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 2: because the Jaguars rushing defense has been phenomenal so far

691
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 2: this year.

692
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 1: It is a two headed attack though with Zach Moss

693
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: as well Debro the secondary here of the Jaguars. You know,

694
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 1: they give up some big plays here. We've seen that.

695
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: We saw it in London on Sunday morning. We saw that.

696
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: So in your opinion here, do you see any value

697
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: on the clat side of this game or are you

698
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars favorite side.

699
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,760
Speaker 3: I could see this game going either way. To be honest, guys,

700
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 3: I think that Jacksonville has shown us that they could

701
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 3: be a letdown team. Indy has also shown that they

702
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 3: have a lot of life on offense. So honestly, I'm

703
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 3: staying away from the spread and the money lines in

704
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 3: this game. Give me the over for the total in

705
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: this game, and we've already seen this play out.

706
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 5: They put up fifty two combined points in Week one.

707
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 5: This total right now, I think should be more in

708
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,719
Speaker 5: the forty six and a half range forty seven ish.

709
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 5: Indy's operating at the fastest neutral pace in the NFL.

710
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 5: Jacksonville can put up points versus this secondary, So however

711
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 5: you want to spice up this matchup, I think the

712
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 5: pace is going to be pretty good, if not very good,

713
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 5: in this game if Jacksonville can keep up, and you're

714
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 5: looking at an Indie offense that can push Jacksonville. So

715
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,959
Speaker 5: not only that, we've seen this runout before, and with

716
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 5: Gardner Minshew now playing, I think they're gonna be passing volume.

717
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 5: So the most intriguing spot for this game is the

718
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 5: over on the total because I just feel like the

719
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 5: line is.

720
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 1: Wrong, all right, let's move on to the next game here,

721
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: battle of one and four teams. Minnesota Vikings head to Chicago.

722
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 1: Minnesota three point favorites in this one. I'm sure you

723
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: know once upon a time when this number opened, it

724
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 1: was a lot different. Now it's just three forty six

725
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 1: and a half FanDuel forty seven at Sugarhouse. If you

726
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: like the Bears at home, it's plus one forty four deep, Brod,

727
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 1: you seen the early value on this line.

728
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 3: Oh help me, I'm going to take the money line

729
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 3: for the Chicago Bears. I think this is a game

730
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 3: where we could see the Bears stack back to back wins.

731
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 3: They are definitely feeling themselves coming off of that win

732
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 3: versus the Commanders. Justin Fields looks like he is in

733
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 3: his bag Minnesota. Again, we're talking about a team that

734
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 3: do they have Justin Jefferson.

735
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 4: Their run game is not good.

736
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 3: Chicago's defense might not be great, but they have been

737
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 3: a very good run defense. So I think a lot

738
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 3: of parts and pieces point two. It's Chicago at home.

739
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 3: I'm ready for a Vikings letdown. Give me the Bears

740
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 3: money line plus money right now.

741
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 1: Well, Vikings letdown would be the end of the Vikings

742
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 1: season here. Do you think that's what we're looking at, Sam.

743
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 2: End of the season. I mean, I sure hope not.

744
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 2: It's this is a game I don't really have much

745
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 2: of a read on. I really don't expect Justin Jefferson

746
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 2: to play. Kevin O'Connell was pretty pessimistic about his hamstring

747
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 2: injury following the game, and I think that's I mean,

748
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:30,720
Speaker 2: he's probably the second most important non quarterback to a spread.

749
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 2: So it's Vikings still have some playmakers on offense that

750
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 2: could give the Bears defense some fits. But it's I

751
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:40,760
Speaker 2: can see this going a number of different ways.

752
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 3: To your point, Sam, If we get the Jefferson news

753
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 3: and this total drops, that kind of leads me to

754
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 3: wait later in the week. And I know we're talking

755
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 3: about early line bets, but I could see easy scenarios

756
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 3: with this total drop some and then I'm more intrigued

757
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 3: on the over.

758
00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know, makes sense.

759
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 2: I think that logic could be.

760
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, well I have to wait. Look, this is one

761
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: where again, if you like it, you want to jump

762
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 1: on it real quick here you can. But there's a

763
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 1: lot here with the Justin Jefferson impact of this game

764
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: that's a guy that moves the needle. New England at

765
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Gonna keep this one simple for you guys,

766
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 1: all right, it's the New England is three point underdogs

767
00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: on the road as they should be, maybe even more,

768
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,600
Speaker 1: Las Vegas minus two and a half. I know it's

769
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. They're not great, but forty three is the

770
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: number plus one for for the Newland Patriots for the upset.

771
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,920
Speaker 1: No thank you, I would tease this one right now

772
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 1: with Vegas past the three and a half. Heck, I'll

773
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,720
Speaker 1: even go to four and a half on this one. Sam.

774
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: To me, the New England secondary has nothing. You cannot

775
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: stop DeVante Adams with nothing. As long as he is

776
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 1: healthy enough to play again. I know that's questionable'll see

777
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 1: how he comes out of tonight's game. But to me,

778
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 1: this is easy. The Patriots are one of the worst

779
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 1: teams in football. Their secondary has been obliterated. Matthew Judon

780
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 1: is done. They have no offense, they have no pass rush,

781
00:36:54,880 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 1: they have no secondary. Why is this number so small, Sam, I'm.

782
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 2: Sure it's the injury concerns. Because for me, as long

783
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:07,200
Speaker 2: as Las Vegas comes out of the game tonight healthy,

784
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: the minus two and a half is a huge value.

785
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: The Raiders offense is probably the best unit on in

786
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 2: this game. The Patriots defense, like you said, is getting

787
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 2: torn apart with injuries. Their offense can't move the balls.

788
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 2: It's confusing. Maybe it's the short week for the Raiders too,

789
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,000
Speaker 2: is contributing to this not being higher. But I like

790
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: Vegas in this game.

791
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 3: All right, So that's two for two, Debro, You want

792
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 3: to sweep this, yeah, I would take Vegas. And also

793
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 3: I'm intrigued to take the over on the total here,

794
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,800
Speaker 3: and I know that sounds gross and people.

795
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 4: Could look at this total. People could look at this

796
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 4: total and say.

797
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 3: Okay, well, New England's not putting up any points, why

798
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 3: do you care about this? Okay, Vegas is not a

799
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 3: good defense, and both of these teams are quietly top

800
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 3: ten in neutral pace, So you're looking at a matchup

801
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 3: with two pretty bad defenses. A home game for Vegas.

802
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 3: I could see them putting up points here and really

803
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,879
Speaker 3: good neutral pace of the play volume I think could

804
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 3: carry this over the total. So honestly, yeah, you can

805
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 3: give me Vegas covering the spread, and I'm intrigued on

806
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 3: taking the over for the forty two and a half total.

807
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 1: All right, let's run through the next couple of games here,

808
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,840
Speaker 1: Detroit at Tampa. Look right now, you're getting Tampa plus

809
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: three and a half home underdogs, which is intriguing. Forty

810
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:27,800
Speaker 1: five and a half is the number plus one fifty

811
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 1: on the money line for Tampa. But Debro with all

812
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: the uncertainty with the health of everybody in the Lions,

813
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 1: I just feel like this one's too early for me

814
00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 1: to get a beat on. Do you agree?

815
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I'm staying away from the spread. If anything,

816
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 3: I think the total is off on this one. We've

817
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 3: seen Detroit still be able to put up points. You

818
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 3: can run, you can pass on the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers

819
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,919
Speaker 3: have have fielded a much better offense than I thought

820
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 3: they would coming into the season. So again, maybe I'm

821
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 3: just being positive here on a Monday morning. But give

822
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 3: me the over for.

823
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 4: The total of forty four over at DK right now

824
00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 4: and pass that.

825
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 1: I'm moving on Sam any value here, like if you

826
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 1: like Tampa at home underdog situation coming off of by

827
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: Is this a trap game for the Lions?

828
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 3: No?

829
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: Again, not a trap game. You think all these road

830
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 2: favorites are in these trap games? No, Detroit is going

831
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 2: to come in handle their business. They get pressure at

832
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 2: a thirty nine percent rate despite blitzing at just a

833
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 2: twenty one percent rate.

834
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:30,760
Speaker 1: I don't you mean road favorites like the Ravens.

835
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 2: No, I mean road favorites like the I think both.

836
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 1: That was just fun. Well, No, I'm just having a

837
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 1: good time with you there.

838
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 2: I think they both go into these games and take

839
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 2: care of business.

840
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: All right, Let's see if Arizona and the Los Angeles

841
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 1: Rams can handle their business. The Rams five and a

842
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,600
Speaker 1: half point favorites. Forty seven and a half is the

843
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: total for this one plus two twenty five for Arizona. Sam,

844
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 1: you saw a cop, you saw Pooka Nakua. This is

845
00:39:57,080 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 1: a much easier assignment this week here in terms of

846
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 1: defensive front, you'll have to deal with the Eagles. Can

847
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:03,600
Speaker 1: the Rams cover this five and a half?

848
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 2: I think so. Surprisingly, this was the Rams' worst passing

849
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 2: game efficiency wise this past week against Philadelphia, but I

850
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 2: think another week with Cooper Cup that offense is going

851
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:18,280
Speaker 2: to be humming against a Cardinals defense that cannot generate

852
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: any pressure. Is twenty eighth in passing EPA per play

853
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 2: and thirty first in pass success rate. I think the

854
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 2: Rams again are going to take care of business here.

855
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 1: Actually, this number has moved to six. I see it

856
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 1: right in here already. So you have the best number

857
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:35,279
Speaker 1: now is six. D Bro, are we jumping on this

858
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 1: before it gets any bigger?

859
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 2: Yeah?

860
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 3: Jump on it now, absolutely. I think the Rams cover this,

861
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 3: and I say that, and I'm also willing to sit

862
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 3: here and take the under on the total. The Rams

863
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 3: defense has been surprisingly really good, and with the Cardinals,

864
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 3: zach Ertz is a shell of his former self now,

865
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 3: James Connor is down, Josh Jobbs looks like he might

866
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 3: have turned back into a pumpkin. I think that the

867
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 3: ram could run away with this game and pull this

868
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:02,759
Speaker 3: to the under.

869
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:06,080
Speaker 1: The Jets will host the Philadelphia Eagles, who are still undefeated,

870
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 1: one of two undefeated teams. The Jets are six and

871
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs at home on DK forty. Two

872
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 1: and a half to forty is the number depending on

873
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,240
Speaker 1: where you look, the Jets plus two thirty here, So Debro,

874
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 1: I mean to me, this one's easy. Like you can

875
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,440
Speaker 1: like the Jets defense all you want, I don't think

876
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:22,320
Speaker 1: they can keep pace with the Philadelphia Eagles on the

877
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:23,879
Speaker 1: offensive side of your thoughts.

878
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 3: Jets, I mean the Eagles cover. If this was the

879
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 3: Eagles at home versus the Jets. Get the home favoritism

880
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 3: here a little bit, this spread should be wider than

881
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 3: what it is, So I'll take the Eagles to cover.

882
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 1: Sam. Are you in the same mind too, where maybe

883
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 1: the Jets are getting too much respect on their two

884
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 1: and three record right now against this Eagles team.

885
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 2: I think so. I mean the Eagles are still one

886
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: of the better rushing teams. We saw Denver be able

887
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,720
Speaker 2: to have some success on the ground against the Jets

888
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 2: this past week, so I check.

889
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 1: Out did two two weeks ago. Let's not forget that.

890
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 2: Also, yeah, I think they'll be able to move the

891
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 2: ball easily.

892
00:41:57,320 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: This is a fascinating one now because it's a huge

893
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 1: number and also now the calculus has changed. The Buffalo

894
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 1: Bills are fourteen and a half point home favorites against

895
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: the New York Giants. Sure the Giants are terrible, but

896
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 1: interesting pieces here. Matt Malano done for the year. Uh

897
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 1: Tredevi's white done for the year. It's a big piece

898
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 1: has gone for this Buffalo defense. I know the offense

899
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,879
Speaker 1: has been dreadful here, but if Saquan should be back

900
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:24,479
Speaker 1: this week? Is it interesting to jump on this line early?

901
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: Here?

902
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: Forty five is the total forty six and a half

903
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 1: at Sugarhouse, forty five at FanDuel. I'm not saying the

904
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 1: Giants can win, but can they cover this Sam?

905
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I mean, I don't know what

906
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 2: the status of Daniel Jones is at this point.

907
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 3: If this plays, I seriously Dowdy plays, I.

908
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 2: Doubt he does too. I think Tyrod Taylor might have

909
00:42:47,280 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 2: gotten hurt at the end of the game two, or

910
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 2: at least something happened to him, So I I don't

911
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 2: know Saquon Barkley can be back. That doesn't move the

912
00:42:57,920 --> 00:43:01,359
Speaker 2: needle at all for me. I think the Bills should hit.

913
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,920
Speaker 2: I'm much more confident in the Bills covering this fourteen

914
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 2: points than the Dolphins covering against the Panthers.

915
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:10,359
Speaker 1: All Right, so you see this one the same thing

916
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 1: where it's just like Buffalo and a romp despite the injuries, Debra.

917
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 3: I think the spread is spot on. I really want

918
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 3: to kind of stay away from it, even though I

919
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 3: think if you want to go attack it that way,

920
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 3: then that's fine. I'm more intrigued by the forty five

921
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,240
Speaker 3: total that I'm looking at right now, over on Fandle,

922
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 3: I would much rather just take the over for that

923
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 3: assuming and I say this with the assumption that Tyrod plays.

924
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 3: I think the Giants can push back enough on this

925
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 3: depleted Buffalo defense, and Josh Allen is going to have

926
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 3: himself a day, so I think the Bills will carry

927
00:43:42,680 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 3: this over the total.

928
00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 1: The offense carries it over the totals supposed to the

929
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 1: defensive things that are missing? All right, last one here,

930
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 1: by the way, can we just get the Giants off

931
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 1: my primetime screen? Please? Can we stop this? For the

932
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 1: love of God? Dallas going to the Los Angeles Chargers

933
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 1: Britain the National game again. It's another Sunday night football

934
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,240
Speaker 1: game with the Jets or Giants.

935
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 2: What do we Oh Joe, nobody you turn your TV

936
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:08,439
Speaker 2: on for the game.

937
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:14,000
Speaker 1: This is what I do. I have to watch. It

938
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 1: pains me, I know, I know. That's the problem with

939
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:21,400
Speaker 1: the Amazon games too, is I can't DVR them. It

940
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 1: tries to me crazy. But anyway, Dallas Cowboys, uh licking

941
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: their wounds, go to Los Angeles here to play the Chargers.

942
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 1: Chargers coming off of bye there two and a half

943
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 1: point dogs at home forty eight and a half is

944
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,840
Speaker 1: the number plus one sixteen for the Chargers to win outright,

945
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 1: So it's real simple, de Bro. Does Dallas bounce back

946
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: or do the Chargers continue to pile on this this

947
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 1: Dallas team after they're reeling from that loss in San fran.

948
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 3: Chargers at home, close spread plus money.

949
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 1: Let's go Chargers, roll. I thought that you were setting

950
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,760
Speaker 1: me up for the Dallas Cowboys. Let's go h Sam

951
00:44:58,120 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 1: Chargers roll.

952
00:44:59,320 --> 00:45:02,720
Speaker 3: Dallas has looked like a shell of itself on offense,

953
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 3: and I get that they're playing the forty nine Ers

954
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 3: and this is not the forty nine Ers defense, but

955
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:11,320
Speaker 3: also Chargers are going to put up some points against

956
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 3: this Dallas defense. Losing Trevon Diggs was huge. It was

957
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,160
Speaker 3: it has been huge for them huge.

958
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 1: Sam. Chargers don't usually handle their business in these kind

959
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 1: of situations.

960
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 2: Your thoughts, I'm on the opposite side. I think you

961
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,919
Speaker 2: are getting a chance to buy Dallas at their absolute low.

962
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 2: They had by far their worst offensive output of the

963
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 2: season last night. I think this is a perfect get

964
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: right spot for them against the defense that ranks bottom

965
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 2: eight in every possible efficiency metric. Seems like justin Herbert

966
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 2: will play. It sounded like he would have been able

967
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 2: to play had they had a game this past week.

968
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 2: But I do think it limits their playbook a little bit.

969
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 2: It sounded like, if I remember Correestley, he had like

970
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: one non shotgun snap after he hurt his hand. So

971
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 2: I like Dallas minus two here. I think again, the

972
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 2: Chargers offense might still be struggling to figure out what

973
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 2: they do without Mike Williams. So I like Dallas here.

974
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 2: I think they can can take care of business tonight next.

975
00:46:15,880 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 1: You get there. Yeah, minus one and a half right now.

976
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 1: I just see on VP two this wow change too,

977
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: So I have interest that, so there would have a

978
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: little bit of change on that. So again, this is

979
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 1: why you stay up to date with the Betting Pros

980
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 1: app Derek Brown, thanks for joining us today, Pinch Hitting.

981
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: Don't forget to catch the DFS show with myself and

982
00:46:33,000 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: Derek Brown every single Friday on our audio version of

983
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 1: Betting Pros wherever you get your podcasts, and check us

984
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:40,919
Speaker 1: out on our Discord Fantasypros dot Com slash chat. It's

985
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 1: free to join. Go hang out with us talk Betting,

986
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 1: Talk Live Betting on Thursday Night Football with Us Sam Hoppin.

987
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 1: Always great stuff from Sam. That'll do it for us,

988
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for Debro

989
00:46:51,120 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 1: and Sam. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

990
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. Follow us

991
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at

992
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 1: Betting Pros NFL.

993
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 5: Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com

994
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:06,240
Speaker 5: slash Betting Pros.