WEBVTT - 1147 | Which Bubble Teams Will Make the Playoffs? Red Sox, Mariners, Pirates, Cardinals & More 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:18.200 By Jecker. 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:19.200 Bring. 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:37.199 We will see you to the corner. Welcome and one 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:42.400 hang out. Just Baseball Show is live. Thank you so 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:45.080 much for joining us wherever you may be ingesting this 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:47.879 podcast video wise. Thanks for joining us live on YouTube 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:49.440 or X. Thank you for joining us. 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:52.000 After the fact on YouTube or X. I guess people 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:53.600 watch archived lives on X. 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:55.920 And then thank you for joining us on Spotify or 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:59.520 Apple Podcast Jack follow Peter Apple Peyton geus here. As always, 0:01:00.240 --> 0:01:02.920 Just Baseball Show here on Friday, July twenty fourth, is 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:06.080 going to be built around the teams on the bubble 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:08.600 in the American League and the National League. There are 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:13.000 a handful of teams contending for only oh so many spots. 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:16.319 There are teams that kind of seem signed, sealed and 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:19.880 delivered at this point. But who are the teams vying 0:01:19.959 --> 0:01:22.640 for the final one or two or three if you're 0:01:22.680 --> 0:01:26.160 the American League, vying for that final wildcard spot or 0:01:26.200 --> 0:01:28.320 one of those wild card spots. We are going to 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:32.360 assess what could get them in, what could hold them back. 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:37.200 As always, it's the Just Baseball Show presented by whom 0:01:37.880 --> 0:01:39.000 bet MGM. 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.720 Did your home run home Run Bet come up short? 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.880 Thanks to this MLB no sweat home run token. You 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:47.960 don't have to worry if your bet didn't clear the fences. 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:50.880 Just activate your token when you bet on any player 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:53.160 to hit a home run in any MLB game, and 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.280 if that player fails to go yard, you're going to 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.360 get your stake back in bonus bets. May I recommend 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:02.200 Jackson Merrill or Can McGonagall. I like both of their matchups, 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:03.920 both of their lines. If you bet on either of 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:05.680 them they hit a home run and they don't, again, 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.680 you will get your stake back in bonus bets. Remember 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:13.000 to use code just Baseball on bet MGM to unlock 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:15.640 that first bet offer where if your first pick loses, 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:19.480 you get it all back up to fifteen one hundred bucks. 0:02:20.000 --> 0:02:22.760 Jack I ran another. 0:02:22.480 --> 0:02:26.679 Model, Yeah, and I asked you via text to run 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.960 it one hundred thousand more times. I need as many 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:33.760 simulations as humanly possible from you. Whenever you say model, 0:02:34.120 --> 0:02:36.359 I say more fair, I agree. 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:38.560 I did run it one hundred thousand times. A lot 0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:40.359 of simulations already, Yeah. 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:41.560 Fifty thousand more, let's go. 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:46.120 And I think this is important to remember, Like with 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:50.120 the model has been very good to me for my futures. 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:52.839 It's what I make my win total projections on over 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.600 the season, and then I like to compare them to 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:58.960 the Fangrafts projections. And I also like to compare them 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.360 to the books. Right if I run a simulation and 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:03.320 it says that the Colorado Rockie you should win one 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:07.680 hundred and twenty games, I'm clearly off. But this same 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.640 model gave me my six win totals this season. That 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:13.720 was the Twins over seventy three and a half wins. 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:16.160 They're on pace for eighty. That was the Cardinals over 0:03:16.200 --> 0:03:18.640 sixty eight and a half wins, or excuse me, Twins 0:03:18.680 --> 0:03:21.880 over seventy two and a half wins. Cardinals over sixty 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:23.880 eight and a half wins. They're on pace for eighty two. 0:03:24.560 --> 0:03:27.760 It gave me the Astros under eighty six and a 0:03:27.800 --> 0:03:30.280 half wins. They're on pace for eighty. Gave me the 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:32.800 Padres under eighty five and a half wins. They're on 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.920 pace for seventy nine. He gave me the Colorado Rockies 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:39.560 over fifty two and a half wins, sixty plus wins 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:43.120 and sixty five plus wins at plus nine to fifty 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.000 on bad MGM, they are on pace for sixty five 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:48.880 wins and last, but certainly not least, who else who 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:51.920 I got? I know those are the five and the 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:54.760 Pirates over seventy six and a half wins. They're on 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.520 pace for eighty two, so the season isn't over yet, 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.320 but I am on pace to go six and all 0:04:00.320 --> 0:04:02.760 on my wind total, so I am trusting the numbers. 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:05.600 It's all about models, baby. We are going to get 0:04:05.640 --> 0:04:08.880 into your model. We're going to get into the Fangrafts 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.840 playoff projections also where these teams just sit really in 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:14.920 the course of the wild Card race as it stands 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:17.880 right now. But before all that, is it time to 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:20.320 open a pack? Dude, explain to us what we're about 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:20.520 to do. 0:04:21.000 --> 0:04:22.880 So we're about to open a pack on Arena Club. 0:04:22.920 --> 0:04:25.520 And I've been having so much fun ripping packs. And 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:27.440 the best part about Arena Club is you can do 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:30.600 it from wherever. And someone like me, who is still 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:34.719 a beginner in terms of card collecting, like I don't 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:36.360 want to spend all the money to get it graded. 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:39.760 I don't want to have to find a card shop 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:43.960 and go shop around. I want one marketplace. I can 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.520 do it on my phone. It grades it for me, 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:49.400 it stores it for me. And they have all these 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:51.440 awesome packs if I want to have a little bit 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:53.960 of fun. So let's open one of the packs. It's 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:56.159 a fifty dollars pack. We're going to see what we get. 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:57.400 Podcast P. 0:04:58.160 --> 0:04:59.560 Let's rip it. Let's see what we get. 0:05:00.040 --> 0:05:03.680 I'm in okay, as you can see, here's what you 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:04.560 see on Arena Club. 0:05:04.600 --> 0:05:07.400 Great graphics, by the way. Let's see. Let's see. 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:12.800 Let's see Joe Morgan. I'm done for a little Joe 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.120 Morgan card. I mean again, Remember it's a fifty dollars 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:17.720 pack and I just got Joe Morgan. So I'll stash 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:21.680 that in my basically online warehouse. 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.160 In your club, yeah, I believe it's called a vault. 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:28.000 They'll either give me an option to resell it back 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:31.520 to them, or other people on Arena Club can go 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:33.640 in and make me an offer. I remember, I just 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:35.719 pulled a show Heyo Tani card when we did one 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:38.400 hundred dollars pack, and I already got two offers above 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.320 market value. So it's really really fun. Again, it just 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:44.560 consolidates everything. And if you want to use promo code 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:48.559 just Baseball, you'll get twenty percent off your first pack 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:51.280 on Arena Club and I'm telling you for all beginner 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.680 card collectors or even professional card collectors, it's a great 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:55.600 app worth trying out. 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:59.720 Nasty poll Apple, You're ready to hop into these playoff 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:03.520 teams who could be playoff teams again, we are talking 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:06.839 about the bubble and teams on the bubble their path 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.120 into the postseason. In the American League, we're going to 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:12.159 be talking about you know, three to four spots I 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:13.840 guess that are up for grabs. A division leader in 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:15.800 the American League West is five hundred right now. The 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:19.360 Raiders are fifty one and fifty one, so more wide open. 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:22.280 With the National League, like, the conversation is going to 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:27.040 pivot to honestly, one seemingly available spot right now, barring 0:06:27.040 --> 0:06:29.480 a skid from the Cubs of the Phillies, it seems 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:32.040 like there is one spot available for five or six 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:35.600 teams to contend for. But the al it is a 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:36.719 wide open conversation. 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:39.719 And that's why in the American League and the National League, 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:42.640 the teams on the bubble, and I'm using quotes for 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.400 all those watching on YouTube, they're different. For example, the 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:51.159 teams like the Pirates and the Cardinals would be far 0:06:51.240 --> 0:06:54.640 ahead of teams in the bubble in the American League. 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:57.480 And in the American League, we have teams that are 0:06:57.600 --> 0:07:01.680 under five hundred right now, where I have them as 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:04.800 having a thirty percent chance of making the playoffs. Right, 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:07.840 So basically, the teams that we're not going to focus 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:13.080 on heavily but are in the conversation are the Orioles. 0:07:13.120 --> 0:07:15.320 I have them making the playoffs thirty percent of the time, 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:19.080 the Tigers at twenty nine percent, the Twins at twenty 0:07:19.120 --> 0:07:23.200 four percent, and the Astros at twenty percent. So again, 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.200 all of these teams are under five hundred. But we 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:28.640 have to remember that the Red Sox at the beginning 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:31.560 of July I had an eleven percent chance. These teams 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.880 have double even triple that amount of chance. So it 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:38.640 might seem low, but things can change, right, and when 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:41.280 you sweep a team, you might go all the way 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:44.640 up to forty percent. So I would consider all four 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:48.160 of those teams at least in the conversation. But when 0:07:48.160 --> 0:07:51.360 we're talking about the true bubble teams, I don't really 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:53.520 want to focus on teams that are four games under 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:54.640 five hundred, you know. 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:57.320 And the bubble grouping is going to change over the 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:59.480 course of the next two to three weeks. Also depending 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.600 on what happened to the deadline here in about a 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:05.200 week and a half, so like the cast of characters 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:07.240 will change. We're just talking about the teams that are 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:10.640 on the postseason bubble as it stands on Friday, July 0:08:10.720 --> 0:08:12.640 twenty fourth. So those are the teams you had on 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:15.360 the outside looking in. Why can't Baltimore get hot? Why 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:18.120 can't Houston get hot? We know Houston might buy. They 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:20.720 could absolutely be in this conversation. Heck, they could be 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:23.040 in the conversation for the freaking division in a week, 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:24.880 maybe by the end of the weekend, you know, with 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:27.880 Texas leading the AL West at fifty one and fifty one, 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:30.880 in Houston four back at fifty and fifty four. So 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:34.040 you've got the Tigers that are talking about more likely 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:37.120 to sell Schooble than not sitting four games back of 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:40.200 a postseason spot. I think it still holds that twenty 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:42.600 three of the thirty teams in Major League Baseball are 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.280 within five games of a postseason berth. That's hard to fathom. 0:08:46.360 --> 0:08:48.080 On July twenty fourth. 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:50.760 Nuts and Podcast p if you could pull up my 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:54.160 teams on the outside looking in their playoff odds, I 0:08:54.200 --> 0:08:56.120 just want to throw it over to Jack and ask him, 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:59.040 do you agree with this order because the standings don't 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.240 reflect this exact order right to actually have the best 0:09:02.280 --> 0:09:05.400 record of the four of them, the Tigers, you know, 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:13.120 the Orioles and the Astros. But my again ranking them Orioles, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Yeah. 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:16.040 I don't. Personally, I'd have the Astros above the Twins. 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:18.319 I think the Astros have the American League VP and 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:20.840 the Twins don't. To be totally honest with you, like 0:09:20.920 --> 0:09:24.360 that's that's my reasoning there. Parades has been awesome over 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:26.440 the last bit. They've got some other guys that are 0:09:26.440 --> 0:09:29.400 stepping up offensively. Paina is starting to you know, scorch 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:33.280 the ball as well. So I think the Astros offense 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:37.000 if they do get minor reinforcements, because it might be 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.520 a soft buy for Dana Brown because he's executing for 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:44.440 his job, executive ying for his job, working for his job. 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:49.760 I think I think Houston might have the offensive firepower 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.840 to just get hot and go scorched Earth in August. 0:09:53.400 --> 0:09:54.920 It is funny. I agree with you. 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:57.640 The Astros do have the MVP and maybe even the 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:00.120 triple crown winner in Jordan, Alvarez. But what if I 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:02.360 told you the Twins offense as a higher ops this 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:03.959 season than the Yeah. 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:06.040 I believe it, But I think that the Astros are 0:10:06.080 --> 0:10:08.800 a sleeping giant while the Twins have performed to their standard, 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:11.400 maybe slightly above. We'll see, we'll see. But I'm a 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:14.559 Twins believer, as you know. Yeah, all right, first bubble 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:15.760 team that we're going to talk about here in the 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:18.080 American League, the Boston Red Sox and the Boston Red 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:21.160 Sox have taken their playoff odds from sub ten percent 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:24.040 at one point on Fangraphs all the way north of 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:27.559 fifty percent. The Boston Red Sox as it stands right now, 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:30.160 have a sixty one point three percent chance to make 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:33.679 the playoffs according to fangrafs. What say you, We'll talk 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:36.680 about the model and then we will give reason why 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:38.720 they get in, reason why they could be held out. 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:42.520 So I am at sixty eight percent chance for the 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:44.960 Red Sox to make the playoffs with a projected win 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:47.839 total of eighty four point two. So basically, of all 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:51.319 the teams on the bubble on the outside looking in, 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:54.640 I think the Red Sox are the best of them. 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:58.640 And you know, just comparing that two fangraphs again, you 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:01.120 said seventy percent for the Red Sox or no, it's 0:11:01.160 --> 0:11:05.080 closer to sixty one. So I'm I guess much much 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:07.559 more bullish on the Red Sox than even the Fangrafts 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.760 projections are. And I think the biggest reason why is 0:11:10.800 --> 0:11:13.160 that this rotation is so strong and it sets them 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:16.800 up to have a scheduled advantage on most days. When 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.440 you consider that Sonny Gray is going up against Dylan 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:22.959 cs that this weekend, that might be the one game 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:27.440 where they don't have a schedule advantage. But are we 0:11:27.480 --> 0:11:30.320 so sure? Because Sunny Gray has been pitching, at least 0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:34.439 from an er standpoint, basically exactly the same as Dylan Ceas. 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.760 And you look at teams in the American League, like, 0:11:36.840 --> 0:11:39.720 how many teams have a better five starter than Jake 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.520 Bennett right now? How many teams have a better four 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:47.720 starter than Peyton Totley right now? So, and I'm also 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.080 factoring in Garrett Crochet coming back at the tail end 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:55.920 of the season and at least looking pretty good. And 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:57.520 I also look at the Red Sox bullpen and I 0:11:57.559 --> 0:11:59.560 think it's one of the stronger ones in the American League. 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:03.440 As well the offense. I'm kind of hit or miss on. 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:06.600 I actually don't really have Roman Anthony contributing it all. 0:12:06.640 --> 0:12:08.320 Do you think he's going to contribute to this team 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:08.960 down the stretch. 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:13.880 He's still experiencing discomfort when swinging a heavier bat, which 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:17.040 doesn't make much sense to me. I think we have 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:20.080 no idea what's going on, so naturally I have to 0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:22.640 assume that he's not going to be a part of 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:24.440 what happens for the Red Sox this year. 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.160 Yeah, I didn't really know what to do, so I 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:30.920 kind of just didn't put him in. I've seen those 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:33.960 get it. But the thing is they don't really need him. 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.600 And again, remember this is all factoring in things before 0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:40.600 the deadline, so I basically have every team making zero moves, 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:45.360 So I guess obviously they're going to make moves, but 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:48.560 this is based on kind of their current team and 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.360 their current strength of schedule, and the Red Sox have 0:12:51.400 --> 0:12:55.959 a relatively mediocre strength of schedule down the stretch. Average 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.559 win percentage of opponents is just at five oh one. 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:00.679 But I think it's really going to be on the 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:05.520 offense whether they're going to exceed expectations or fall below 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:09.000 expectations because I think everybody is pretty aligned on this 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.600 rotation being good, especially adding Patrick sandabal Back. I think 0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:14.959 that's going to help. I think everybody's pretty aligned in 0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:17.880 the bullpen being good, especially behind Chapman and Whitlock. With 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.760 Slayton Guerrero, Weisert Moran like, they got plenty of guys. 0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:26.400 But does Jared Durant bounce back at all? Caleb Durbin 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.960 has been on a heater. Does he fall? Does he 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.720 stay the same? Does he get even better? Masatak Yoshida 0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:36.479 has been hitting at an elite level lately, does he continue? 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.079 Contreras a bray You. It's really hard to gauge the 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.480 Red Sox offense right now because they've just been so 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:48.520 damn hot that there's the inevitable fallof But with how 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:51.480 good they're pitching is, I think at this point they've 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:54.600 proven they can win low scoring games, they can win 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.840 one run games, they can win on the margins, which 0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.600 again I think will be enough, and they are my 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.240 best bubble team in the American League. 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.440 Yeah, if they get in, it's because they continue to 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.400 get starting pitching like this and they continue to get eighth, 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.400 eighth and ninth work hel like back third work. I'm 0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:15.800 gonna expand it because there are other characters in that 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:18.600 bullpen that are throwing the ball exceptionally well right now. 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:20.440 I know Slayton's had some blow ups, but I have 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:24.960 supreme faith in justin Slayton, Tyrone, Guerrero, Weissert's been really good, 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.280 Geovanni Moran as well, all in front of Whitlock and Chapman, 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:30.240 who have been nails, both throwing to his sub two 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:34.560 this year. So if they get in, it's because pitching 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.640 carries them and the offense does enough. If they don't 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.040 get in, I think it's because the offense goes a well. 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.080 To your point, like if they just disappear entirely and 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.000 Wilson Contrara stops standing on his head and Raphaela is 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.240 an eighty WRC plus guy and you'll shoot it, Yosheet, 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:51.600 it turns into like an eighty five WRC plus guy 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:54.360 and Willier has a slump. If they all slump at 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.360 the same time, that's what can take them out of 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.040 the conversation. But I think pitching can get them in. 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:01.960 Yeah, I think that's they have such a high floor 0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.160 because of that. But even when you said, of all 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:06.200 of them slump. At the same time, I think, of course, 0:15:06.400 --> 0:15:08.840 right of everyone in the lineup slumps. 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:09.480 Sure they're gonna suck. 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.360 But even if a few guys like if Wilson Catreros 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.680 and William Bray you hit a snag, we could be 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.800 in trouble here. We can't forget that. Before this win streak, 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:21.640 the Red Sox had the worst record in the American League. 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:23.920 We've seen what it looks like when it's bad, We've 0:15:23.960 --> 0:15:26.320 seen what it looks like when it's elite, And I 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:28.760 think what could propel the Red Sox is what is 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:32.120 your medium outcome? What does that look like? And my 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:34.640 medium outcome for the Red Sox is still the best 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:36.960 of the bubble teams, and it'll be on them to 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.160 play either to their medium or above in order to 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:40.000 make the playoffs. 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:43.440 Yeah, seems like a possible shoeing as well as the 0:15:43.440 --> 0:15:45.400 Cleveland Guardians, And I think this is gonna be a 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:49.120 quicker conversation here. The Cleveland Guardians as it stands right now, 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.440 are fifty four and fifty so they're one and a 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:54.080 half back in the division. The White Sox have as 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.600 many wins fifty four, but they have three fewer losses 0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:00.320 at forty seven, the White Sox, according to Fangrabs, have 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.840 a forty three percent chance of making the postseason. Guardians, meanwhile, 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.800 have a sixty two percent chance and making the postseason, 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:10.040 So they are the more likely candidate to come out 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:13.000 of the American League Central. But they fit this bubble 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:16.720 team conversation because technically, by way of the standings, they 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:20.200 are behind the Chicago White Sox. How do you see 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:21.760 this Guardian season shaking up? 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:25.320 So I want to answer what you were just talking 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:27.960 about before I even talk about the Guardians, because I 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:31.840 saw my projections compared to every single Fangrafts model they 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.840 have seven of them. All seven say that the Guardians 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:37.400 are going to end up winning this division. The betting 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:39.320 odds say that the Guardians are going to win this division. 0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:42.240 I disagree. I think the White Socks are going to 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.080 win this division. And it has nothing to do with 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:45.640 the fact that I think the White Sox are going 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.600 to be aggressive at the deadline. Maybe not, you know, 0:16:49.000 --> 0:16:51.760 quote unquote aggressive, more aggressive than the White Sox have 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.560 been in years past. I'm not factoring any of that in. 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.360 I'm just looking at the talent, and I think the 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:02.840 biggest reason why I guess Model disagrees with Fangrafts is 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:04.840 I think I'm just more bullish on this White Sox 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:08.959 offense than they are because I can't really figure out why. 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:13.440 Maybe they really dislike the starting pitching staff of the 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:14.800 Chicago White Sox, but. 0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:17.040 Also probably lack of precedent, like I feel like President 0:17:17.320 --> 0:17:20.160 really factors in here. It seems like the last few 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.960 years are taken heavily into account. 0:17:22.600 --> 0:17:25.640 No doubt about it, and it's definitely lagging from preseason 0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:28.680 expectations because we can't forget that the White Sox were 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:32.920 projected to finish last in this division. Yeah right, so right, 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:36.159 the Royals were projected to finish second, and look what happens. 0:17:36.160 --> 0:17:39.080 So there's been some flip flopping around, and the Guardians 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:40.840 were one of the favorites to win this division. So 0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:44.679 I'm sure that's what they're balancing. But I don't know 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:48.920 how you can't be bullish on this White Sox offense. 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:52.560 Sam Antonaci is just it's a really good table setter. 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:55.600 I know he's taken a slight step back lately, but 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.240 it's still a one to twenty four WRC. Plus they 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.280 got Murakami back, They've been able to tread water and 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:04.680 or play above without him. Now they get him back 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.520 in the lineup. You got Miguel Vargas, who's just frankly 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:09.639 been one of the better hitters in the American League period. 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:10.480 You got Coolsa. 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:15.760 Montgomery, who has hit forty five home runs. It is 0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:18.199 one hundred and sixty seven MLB games. He's one of 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.200 two shortstops with twenty four home runs, tied with CJ. 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:23.920 Abrams right now for the most in baseball. Ben and 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.600 Tendee has actually not been bad this year. He's got 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:28.920 a one o one WRC plus. We got an average heating 0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:32.880 for manager Ben Attende start the parade. I like Bradon Montgomery, 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:37.200 Tristan Peters, who knows, But we got a one twenty 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.800 WRC plus in front of us, Chase Midrath on one 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:40.320 oh seven. 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:42.000 What am I missing here? 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:44.359 And when I compare it to the Guardian's lineup, Jack, 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:47.440 I know Jose Ramirez is back, and I know that's awesome, 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:51.440 but have you seen the bottom four in their lineup? 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:52.040 Yeah? 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:54.960 I mean Patrick Bailey is hitting better than he has been, 0:18:56.000 --> 0:18:58.639 and that's been one of the Guardian's best hitters lately. 0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.280 Like I don't know if anybody watched that game against 0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:03.480 the Twins yesterday. I think the Guardians went zero for 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:06.480 seventeen with runners in scoring position. Now, I like the 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:09.440 Guardians pitching staff better, but I don't think there's as 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:11.280 big of a gap between the White Sox offense and 0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:14.280 the Guardians offense, to the Guardians starting rotation to the 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:18.400 White Sox starting rotation and not only All I'm doing 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:22.440 is looking at their current numbers this year. I think 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:24.000 the White Socks are going to be more aggressive at 0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:26.359 the deadline, so I think they're going to win the division, 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:29.320 and the Guardians are one of the bubble teams what. 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:33.359 I think, so I will disagree with you there and 0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:36.679 what I think does the White Sox in in terms 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:41.600 of I guess the disadvantage in relation to the Guardians 0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:43.720 is the bullpen. At the end of the day. Cleveland 0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:46.040 has rinse and repeat, one of, if not the best 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:48.880 bullpen in baseball every single year, and the White Sox 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:51.120 are trying a whole bunch of different casts of characters 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:53.400 every single season. Now, they have some guys, no doubt 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.320 about that, But the Guardians have guys to cover five 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.800 innings if they need five days a week. So it's 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:02.919 the the Guardians. Like number one starting pitching health has 0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:05.919 been outstanding. The Guardians have had five guys start a 0:20:05.920 --> 0:20:08.840 baseball game for them this year. That is absurd after 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.840 the All Star break have all five starters make every 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:16.159 single start in the rotation. And then I look at 0:20:16.160 --> 0:20:18.440 the bullpen. So yeah, while I agree with you, it's 0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:20.440 not that stark of a drop off between the white 0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:22.480 sock or between the Guardian rotation of the white sock 0:20:22.600 --> 0:20:26.440 rotation the Guardian's staff and the White Sox staff, I 0:20:26.480 --> 0:20:29.040 think is as stark a drop off as the white 0:20:29.040 --> 0:20:31.440 Sock to Guardian offensive situation. 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:36.480 So I agree that the Guardian's bullpen is better. I 0:20:36.560 --> 0:20:39.359 agree that the Guardian's bullpen is safer. I agree that 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:43.240 the Guardians bullpen is more proven, I don't agree that 0:20:43.280 --> 0:20:47.080 it's that much better. And here's why. At this point, 0:20:47.600 --> 0:20:50.200 what does Grant Taylor have to prove to tell everyone 0:20:50.240 --> 0:20:52.399 he's one of the better relievers in the American League. 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:55.199 This guy's been fantastic this year, striking out close to 0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:57.359 thirteen per nine and he's got a two six to 0:20:57.359 --> 0:21:00.280 three era. Sean Newcomb now has just been solid for 0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:02.119 a while. He's got a two four to one. Brian 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:05.000 Hudson has had a great year two h eight ERA, 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:07.240 and Jordan Hicks has really found a home in this 0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:09.560 White Sox bullpen. He's pitching to an ERA at three 0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:13.160 and that's with Sir Anthony Dominguez having a bad year 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:16.680 at a four five zero er. But he's a guy 0:21:16.720 --> 0:21:20.560 who you, I guess he's been around the block. There's 0:21:20.760 --> 0:21:24.120 some trust still there for at least maybe a good 0:21:24.160 --> 0:21:27.080 stretch down the down until the end of the season. 0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:30.720 So I agree with you, Guardian's bullpen is better. The 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:31.960 gap just isn't that big. 0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:35.720 Yeah, So I guess we'll agree to disagree there. I 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:39.800 do think that volatility is on the Guardian's side. I 0:21:39.840 --> 0:21:43.520 think that they are far more even than the White Sox, 0:21:43.520 --> 0:21:45.439 and the White Sox could have some of those guys 0:21:45.600 --> 0:21:48.720 blip and the Guardians have shown us four to five 0:21:48.840 --> 0:21:52.680 years in recent history of them being awesome from game 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:54.960 one to Game one sixty two. But this is a 0:21:54.960 --> 0:21:59.120 Guardian conversation that if the Guardians get in, why if 0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:01.560 the Guardians don't get in why. 0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:03.760 So I also want to be clear to all my 0:22:03.800 --> 0:22:06.400 Guardians fans out there. We got Colin in the YouTube chat, 0:22:06.400 --> 0:22:09.360 Peter's picking everyone in the ale Cedral except Cleveland this year. 0:22:09.400 --> 0:22:13.399 How are her heroes fall? I'm sorry because I have 0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:15.240 been such a Guardian's truth and for such a long 0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:18.760 time here I just as they get new information, I change. 0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:22.200 But at the same time, I still have the Guardians 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:24.840 making the playoffs. I give them a fifty nine percent 0:22:24.920 --> 0:22:27.640 chance of making the playoffs. Eighty three wins. I think 0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:29.920 it's more likely than not that this team is playing 0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:33.640 in October. So I have the White Sox for example, 0:22:33.760 --> 0:22:35.520 I think i'd have to go check. But at eighty 0:22:35.560 --> 0:22:41.120 three point six wins, so it's really really close. And again, 0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:43.440 I still think the Guardians are a pretty solid team 0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:50.399 with Cleveland. Like I hate to do this, Jack, but 0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:54.640 isn't it kind of whether they have magic or not? Yeah, 0:22:54.720 --> 0:22:58.200 because here's the thing about the Guardians. The Guardians forever 0:22:58.760 --> 0:23:02.919 have played above their talent they have Yeah, right, we 0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:06.280 call it guardball for a reason. That speaks to the 0:23:06.280 --> 0:23:09.640 Guardians organization that they put guys in spots to succeed. 0:23:10.400 --> 0:23:13.040 And I've talked about this with Milwaukee, We've talked about 0:23:13.080 --> 0:23:15.360 this with Tampa. It's like some teams are just better 0:23:15.400 --> 0:23:18.760 at playing the game of baseball than others. Yeah, I mean, 0:23:18.800 --> 0:23:20.560 we can't forget. The Guardians had a seventy nine and 0:23:20.560 --> 0:23:22.520 a half win total to open the season. The Brewers 0:23:22.560 --> 0:23:25.200 were at eighty four and a half. That's what these 0:23:25.320 --> 0:23:29.439 models look at on a pure talent basis, but the 0:23:29.480 --> 0:23:33.040 Guardians routinely play above that. So that's what I think 0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:37.720 is going to separate the Guardians, Because on paper, Guardians 0:23:37.800 --> 0:23:39.040 might not have as good of a team as like 0:23:39.080 --> 0:23:41.800 the Orioles, but they're way better at playing baseball than 0:23:41.800 --> 0:23:43.760 the Oriols. They're better with rudders at scoring position, they're 0:23:43.760 --> 0:23:46.879 better at doing the little things. Overall, they have better pitching. 0:23:47.760 --> 0:23:49.520 So I really think it comes down to that. I 0:23:49.560 --> 0:23:51.280 know it's simple, and I know it's kind of a 0:23:51.320 --> 0:23:53.320 cop out, but I believe it. 0:23:54.359 --> 0:23:56.280 Yeah, I'm going to take it a step further. I 0:23:56.280 --> 0:23:58.280 think the Guardians get in if the record in one 0:23:58.359 --> 0:24:00.680 and two run games is over five hundre, right. I 0:24:00.760 --> 0:24:02.560 think they don't get in if their record and one 0:24:02.600 --> 0:24:04.280 and two run games is under five hundred. 0:24:04.600 --> 0:24:06.520 They're gonna play a lot of those games because the 0:24:06.560 --> 0:24:09.440 offense just isn't very powerful, so they don't have those 0:24:09.480 --> 0:24:12.160 bats that can change the game with one swing really 0:24:12.160 --> 0:24:14.879 outside of Jose Ramirez who just got back, but he 0:24:14.920 --> 0:24:17.960 also was coming back from a hamd eate injury, which 0:24:18.119 --> 0:24:20.800 historically hurts batter's power. 0:24:22.200 --> 0:24:24.800 Yeah. So I think that they are going to play 0:24:24.840 --> 0:24:28.040 a whole bunch of four to three games and three 0:24:28.080 --> 0:24:30.760 to two games and three to one games. So at 0:24:30.760 --> 0:24:32.399 the end of the day, if they win more of 0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:35.159 those than they don't, then they're in. And that, my friends, 0:24:35.200 --> 0:24:38.720 is the laziest sentence ever uttered as it pertains to 0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:40.000 a bubble team. 0:24:40.800 --> 0:24:42.600 From our comments, we still love you, Peter, and I 0:24:42.640 --> 0:24:44.199 love you too, And I think the Guardians are going 0:24:44.240 --> 0:24:46.880 to make it in I guess, I really. I'm curious 0:24:46.960 --> 0:24:50.080 what for the Guardians playoff chances. How does Peter's model 0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:53.359 account for Lebron Spring Cleveland, It's effect on Citi's bra 0:24:53.640 --> 0:24:55.800 I don't think that'll have any certain effect. 0:24:55.800 --> 0:24:57.399 I think it's I think it's a revenge tour for 0:24:57.480 --> 0:24:58.720 the city of Cleveland right now. 0:24:59.200 --> 0:25:02.119 I do wonder what Guardians fans think because are we 0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:03.200 just talking out of our ass? 0:25:03.200 --> 0:25:04.280 Are we going too simple? 0:25:04.359 --> 0:25:08.560 Because that's truly what I feel about the Guardians. I 0:25:08.560 --> 0:25:10.359 think it's going to be about are you winning on 0:25:10.400 --> 0:25:11.000 the margins? 0:25:12.000 --> 0:25:14.040 I think every Guardians fan will tell you that they 0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:17.359 win games three to one. That's just how they win exactly. 0:25:17.480 --> 0:25:20.480 And for example, just yesterday, I was just watching they 0:25:20.520 --> 0:25:22.639 lost three to one. Right it was an extra innings 0:25:22.680 --> 0:25:25.040 game where they weren't hitting with runners in scoring position 0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:29.040 a normal Cleveland Guardians win. They get that big hit 0:25:29.320 --> 0:25:32.000 and they win that game. And that's what makes them 0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:33.920 such a tough team to face, because if you play 0:25:33.960 --> 0:25:37.520 them in close games, they're really really good, historically good 0:25:37.560 --> 0:25:40.080 at winning those games. I think it will come down 0:25:40.080 --> 0:25:41.879 to that form. 0:25:41.600 --> 0:25:44.199 All right. The Texas Rangers the next team that we're 0:25:44.200 --> 0:25:45.840 going to talk about, and as it stands right now, 0:25:45.920 --> 0:25:48.160 the Rangers are the division leader in an even five 0:25:48.240 --> 0:25:52.679 hundred and fifty one fifty one. According to Fangrafts, the 0:25:52.720 --> 0:25:56.119 Texas Rangers have a forty nine point five percent chance 0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:59.880 to make the postseason. That is, folks, a toss SEP. 0:26:00.600 --> 0:26:02.320 What say you, Peter Rapple? 0:26:02.880 --> 0:26:04.200 I think they do and I think they win the 0:26:04.240 --> 0:26:07.360 division podcast P would you mind pulling up my projections 0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:10.800 on the Rangers. I have them finishing with about eighty 0:26:10.800 --> 0:26:13.120 three wins just to tick short at eighty two point 0:26:13.119 --> 0:26:16.560 eight and my playoff projection is sixty one percent. And 0:26:16.640 --> 0:26:19.680 this series is going to be a massive one. This weekend, 0:26:19.920 --> 0:26:22.760 the Mariners and the Rangers play a four game set 0:26:22.840 --> 0:26:28.000 starting Tonight ending on Monday at Globalife Field in Texas, 0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:33.400 Rangers versus Mariners. And then right after that series, the 0:26:33.440 --> 0:26:37.040 Mariners go and play the Dodgers in LA and the 0:26:37.160 --> 0:26:40.280 Rangers go to play the Rays in Tampa. And you 0:26:40.359 --> 0:26:42.200 might say, well, the Mariners have a harder one against 0:26:42.200 --> 0:26:44.960 the Daughters, of course, but I have you seen Tampa 0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:48.360 in Tampa. They're unbeatable, the best team at home this year. 0:26:48.840 --> 0:26:52.280 So both teams have really tough series after So this 0:26:52.359 --> 0:26:55.120 could be a separating series here. If the Rangers win 0:26:55.160 --> 0:26:56.920 three out of fourth, the Rangers went four to fourth, 0:26:56.920 --> 0:26:58.919 the Mariner's win four out of fourth, the Mariners went 0:26:58.960 --> 0:27:01.439 three out of four, you can start to kind of 0:27:01.520 --> 0:27:06.119 command this division. I think the Rangers are going to 0:27:06.119 --> 0:27:11.040 win this series this weekend. I just don't really trust 0:27:11.080 --> 0:27:14.200 the Mariners on the road this season. But here's the point, 0:27:14.359 --> 0:27:19.560 let's go to the Rangers with Langford back. I think 0:27:19.600 --> 0:27:23.480 that this offense is still being slept on a little 0:27:23.480 --> 0:27:25.920 bit because I think when you think of the Rangers, 0:27:25.920 --> 0:27:28.320 you think pitching and just a team that refuses to 0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:32.560 hit and largely like I get it right. The Rangers 0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:35.760 are sixteenth in ops. It hasn't been great, but they've 0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:37.720 missed Cory Seger for a while. They've missed why At 0:27:37.800 --> 0:27:41.119 Langford for a while. But Corey Seeger will eventually return. 0:27:41.160 --> 0:27:44.320 But even if he doesn't, I kind of like this offense. 0:27:44.440 --> 0:27:48.639 Jack Peterson, Langford, Josh Young and Brandon Emo, Jake Berger, 0:27:48.680 --> 0:27:52.560 Ezekiel Duran. You've thrown Nicky Lopez and Justin Fosku in there. 0:27:52.800 --> 0:27:55.439 All of those guys have WRC plus is over one hundred, 0:27:56.240 --> 0:27:58.040 and I don't want to like, I almost feel like 0:27:58.040 --> 0:28:00.000 we should just blend the Mariners and Rangers here. 0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:05.040 Don't you think we can? Yeah, so let's let's bring 0:28:05.080 --> 0:28:08.320 the Mariners into this conversation as well. So the Seattle Mariners, 0:28:08.359 --> 0:28:10.160 as it stands right now, they are a game under 0:28:10.200 --> 0:28:12.760 five hundreds, so they're a half game back in the division. 0:28:12.760 --> 0:28:15.240 They're fifty one and fifty two, and their playoff odds, 0:28:15.240 --> 0:28:20.679 according to Fangrafs, are sixty nine percent. Fangrafs loves Seattle 0:28:21.560 --> 0:28:24.920 and they like Texas. I think that's the fair way 0:28:24.960 --> 0:28:25.280 to put it. 0:28:25.720 --> 0:28:28.120 So I have the Mariners making the playoffs fifty four 0:28:28.160 --> 0:28:33.560 point seven percent, but of course I have the Rangers 0:28:33.560 --> 0:28:38.240 winning the division. And you're probably wondering why all these 0:28:38.280 --> 0:28:40.720 teams can have above a fifty percent chance of making 0:28:40.760 --> 0:28:44.240 the playoffs when there's only three spots and we've already 0:28:44.280 --> 0:28:46.480 talked about four teams and we haven't even talked about 0:28:46.480 --> 0:28:49.000 a team like the Rays or the Yankees, whoever ends 0:28:49.080 --> 0:28:52.120 up winning the American League East, Because think about it, 0:28:52.120 --> 0:28:55.440 they're all kind of coin flips. So that's how you 0:28:55.480 --> 0:28:58.200 can get to a certain projection. Is It's not like 0:28:58.880 --> 0:29:01.760 if the marin have a fifty four percent chance, that 0:29:01.840 --> 0:29:04.320 means the Guardians have a forty six percent chance. It's 0:29:04.360 --> 0:29:07.440 not really like that. So it's it's it's about balancing 0:29:07.440 --> 0:29:09.280 all of it. It's very complicated. We're not going to 0:29:09.320 --> 0:29:11.960 get into it right now. But what is important though, 0:29:12.040 --> 0:29:14.360 is I do think that the Rangers are the better team, 0:29:14.520 --> 0:29:17.040 and I think it comes down to I'm not buying 0:29:17.040 --> 0:29:20.560 this Mariners offense. I also am worried about a lot 0:29:20.560 --> 0:29:22.719 of these Mariners starting pitchers on the road. I mean, 0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:24.800 Brian MOUs got An ERA over four and an ERA 0:29:24.960 --> 0:29:27.920 below three at home. Why Because he's just getting crushed 0:29:27.920 --> 0:29:30.120 on the road. A lot of these guys are, and 0:29:30.160 --> 0:29:32.560 this Mariner's bullpen is not quite as scary as it 0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:37.920 previously was. And with cal having the downright horrible season 0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:42.160 that he's having, Juli Rodriguez has not had this bursting 0:29:42.280 --> 0:29:44.840 second half like we're used to, and he's been banged 0:29:44.920 --> 0:29:48.280 up as well. It's not as daunting of an offense either. 0:29:49.200 --> 0:29:51.600 I just don't think that they have that super high 0:29:51.680 --> 0:29:53.680 floor like they used to because of how good the 0:29:53.720 --> 0:29:56.000 starting rotation was, because of how good the bullpen was, 0:29:56.520 --> 0:29:58.640 I think it's relatively weaker than a year's past. 0:30:00.240 --> 0:30:03.520 I will give you the if Seattle gets in, if 0:30:03.520 --> 0:30:05.120 they don't get in right now, because I think it 0:30:05.200 --> 0:30:08.360 kind of like lays the groundwork for the Ranger take. 0:30:08.440 --> 0:30:12.719 For me, if Seattle gets in, it's because Jerry Depoto 0:30:12.760 --> 0:30:15.560 did exactly what he needed to do at the deadline. Yeah, 0:30:15.560 --> 0:30:19.480 and that's been an impact. Yeah. Deadline's humongous for Seattle. 0:30:19.920 --> 0:30:24.800 He gets several impact bats, at least one right handed 0:30:24.880 --> 0:30:28.720 impact bat, probably two right handed impact bats, and they 0:30:28.760 --> 0:30:32.640 also go and get one more legit reliever because to 0:30:32.680 --> 0:30:35.920 your point, the Seattle bullpen is not as daunting as 0:30:35.960 --> 0:30:39.440 it was last year. Now a brash injury for the 0:30:39.440 --> 0:30:42.480 majority of the season has certainly impacted that. But right 0:30:42.520 --> 0:30:45.480 now you're looking at a big four of Muno's spire 0:30:45.640 --> 0:30:48.080 for Rare and Bizarto, and then after that it's just 0:30:48.160 --> 0:30:50.760 kind of a white flag bullpen right now, Like those 0:30:50.800 --> 0:30:53.280 are their advantage guys, and you can only cover twelve 0:30:53.360 --> 0:30:56.320 outs at this point, Seattle. Great note from Payden here, 0:30:56.720 --> 0:31:00.240 they're pitching staff, not just their rotation, their whole pitching staff. 0:31:00.400 --> 0:31:02.880 A three to one five ERA at T Mobile Park 0:31:03.280 --> 0:31:06.280 and an ERA over four away from T Mobile Park. 0:31:06.320 --> 0:31:10.040 They're seven over at home, they're eight under on the road, 0:31:10.440 --> 0:31:12.760 so they need to get better. I think they need 0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:14.480 one more iron in the fire in the bullpen, and 0:31:14.520 --> 0:31:17.120 I think they need two more irons in the fire offensively. 0:31:17.640 --> 0:31:21.360 Now at full health, this lineup does look pretty good, 0:31:21.440 --> 0:31:24.080 but it looks very left hand. So they need to 0:31:24.120 --> 0:31:27.840 figure out a way to spell Colt Emerson, Like, I 0:31:27.920 --> 0:31:30.160 know he's your top prospect. I know he's got ninety 0:31:30.200 --> 0:31:32.880 million dollars in the bank in the over the course 0:31:32.880 --> 0:31:35.160 of eight years, but at the end of the day. 0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:37.880 He's just not good enough right now, especially in left 0:31:37.960 --> 0:31:39.720 on left matchups. They've got a couple of guys that 0:31:39.760 --> 0:31:42.480 are just not good enough in left on left matchups. 0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:46.520 And the ref Snyder signing being brutal is brutal, Like 0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:49.160 that is a huge anvil here because they felt like 0:31:49.240 --> 0:31:52.920 they grabbed a short platoon masher and it turns out 0:31:52.920 --> 0:31:55.520 he's just been stinking up the joint this year. So 0:31:56.040 --> 0:31:59.960 I think Seattle gets in because of a great deadline. 0:32:00.040 --> 0:32:03.160 It's left out because of an underwhelming deadline. Texas. I 0:32:03.200 --> 0:32:04.920 think they're going to be very quiet. I think they 0:32:04.960 --> 0:32:07.640 get in because they keep pitching, and Langford is Langford, 0:32:07.680 --> 0:32:09.760 and they've got other guys that you know, kind of 0:32:09.800 --> 0:32:12.400 pop offensively. If they don't get in, it's because that 0:32:12.440 --> 0:32:14.480 offense just kind of has collective anemia. 0:32:15.280 --> 0:32:19.320 So I want to give you a scenario. Let's say 0:32:19.560 --> 0:32:24.280 the Rangers take three or four from the Mariners. Okay, 0:32:25.040 --> 0:32:27.120 Mariner or Rangers get a couple of games up on 0:32:27.160 --> 0:32:29.800 them in the division, which they already have a lead in, yep. 0:32:30.400 --> 0:32:32.880 And then let's say the Rangers lose two out of 0:32:32.960 --> 0:32:37.400 three to the Rays. The Mariners lose two out of 0:32:37.440 --> 0:32:42.880 three to the Dodgers. So the Mariners up until the deadline, 0:32:43.760 --> 0:32:47.200 you just lose three or four to your division rival. No, 0:32:47.240 --> 0:32:50.440 and you're five under going into the deadline. Yeah, how 0:32:50.520 --> 0:32:53.480 sure are we that Jerry Depoto, a guy who likes 0:32:53.520 --> 0:32:56.200 to play it carefully, is now going to go full 0:32:56.240 --> 0:32:57.120 board at this deadline? 0:32:57.520 --> 0:32:59.200 To be honest, I don't think I've ever heard Jerry 0:32:59.200 --> 0:33:01.480 Depoto and playing it carefully in the same sentence. I 0:33:01.480 --> 0:33:04.000 don't think he does that at all. You think that 0:33:04.080 --> 0:33:05.280 Depoto is the closest thing. 0:33:05.240 --> 0:33:10.080 We've got to preller interesting, I don't think he plays 0:33:10.080 --> 0:33:11.280 it carefully whatsoever. 0:33:11.440 --> 0:33:15.240 I think if he's within striking distance based on the 0:33:15.280 --> 0:33:19.400 way that these pitching, the way that the rotation service 0:33:19.760 --> 0:33:22.480 is playing out, like you only have some more many 0:33:22.520 --> 0:33:24.600 years of Logan Gilbert, you only have a couple more 0:33:24.640 --> 0:33:27.200 many years at George Kirby, Like you're running out of 0:33:27.320 --> 0:33:31.080 time with this best rotation in baseball, quote unquote, so 0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:33.880 it's time to capitalize. No, I agree with you. 0:33:33.960 --> 0:33:35.360 I just don't know if he's going to see it 0:33:35.400 --> 0:33:37.080 like that, Like I don't. I guess I don't view 0:33:37.160 --> 0:33:39.440 Depoto as like a prelleresque type. 0:33:39.280 --> 0:33:41.520 Of guy interesting. I totally do. I view him as 0:33:41.560 --> 0:33:42.880 the preller of the American League. 0:33:43.240 --> 0:33:45.680 I think that he's you know, he's brought in guys 0:33:45.720 --> 0:33:47.920 like Josh Naylor, and he's brought in guys like Randy 0:33:48.000 --> 0:33:50.959 Rose Arena, and he's made some deadu. 0:33:50.440 --> 0:33:52.720 Hadeo Suarez at the deadline last year. 0:33:53.240 --> 0:33:56.080 Chris Young has also been sneaky aggressive too, like they 0:33:56.080 --> 0:33:59.600 were the team to trade for Mackenzie Gore this offseason, 0:33:59.680 --> 0:34:02.920 Like they have made some moves that kind of shock everyone. 0:34:03.000 --> 0:34:07.200 Like I just I don't view the Mariners deadline being 0:34:07.480 --> 0:34:11.600 all that different from the Rangers deadline. But again we'll 0:34:11.640 --> 0:34:14.759 see right again, the Mariners could win three out of four, 0:34:15.320 --> 0:34:16.960 and then they could go beat the Dodgers. Then they 0:34:16.960 --> 0:34:19.520 could get hot and the Rangers could fall. Like I guess, 0:34:19.520 --> 0:34:21.680 I'm more just leaning towards my own projections, but it 0:34:21.719 --> 0:34:24.759 could easily go the opposite direction. And that's why this 0:34:24.840 --> 0:34:28.280 series this weekend, I will be watching all four games 0:34:28.320 --> 0:34:30.719 so closely. I think this is this series to watch 0:34:30.800 --> 0:34:34.880 this weekend, even though Yankees, Phillies, you got the Dodgers, Like, 0:34:34.880 --> 0:34:36.840 there are some great series this weekend. We're gonna do 0:34:36.840 --> 0:34:41.240 a weekend preview later. But this this these four whoa 0:34:41.440 --> 0:34:43.200 we got almost playoffs in July. 0:34:43.320 --> 0:34:45.480 I can't wait. It's gonna be awesome. All right, we're 0:34:45.480 --> 0:34:47.360 gonna pivot the conversation of the National League here in 0:34:47.400 --> 0:34:49.759 a moment. But before that, quick word from our friends 0:34:49.760 --> 0:34:50.920 at Hampton Farms. 0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:53.640 Imagine you take your seat at the ballpark, the smell 0:34:53.680 --> 0:34:56.960 of fresh cut grass and ice, cold beer, peanuts and 0:34:57.000 --> 0:35:01.040 the promise of three hours of uninterrupted bas What if 0:35:01.080 --> 0:35:03.800 you could bring the ballpark home to you with Hampton 0:35:03.880 --> 0:35:07.760 Farms peanuts. You can, America's number one in shell brand 0:35:08.000 --> 0:35:10.720 can be found in your local produce aisle, or twenty 0:35:10.800 --> 0:35:15.800 five percent off at Hamptonfarms dot com with code just Baseball. 0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:19.040 Bring the ballpark home to you with Hampton Farms Peanuts. 0:35:20.719 --> 0:35:23.520 All right, time to talk about the National League. Here. 0:35:24.000 --> 0:35:26.040 You have one team that's on the outside looking in 0:35:26.400 --> 0:35:29.200 right now, and it's kind of a feature story on 0:35:29.239 --> 0:35:32.160 the San Diego Padres, who as it stands right now, 0:35:32.360 --> 0:35:35.600 San Diego heralds a record of fifty and fifty three. 0:35:35.640 --> 0:35:37.800 They're three hunderd five hundred. They are four back of 0:35:37.840 --> 0:35:40.719 the final wildcard spot in the National League. They have 0:35:40.840 --> 0:35:43.000 dropped two in a row. They've dropped six out of ten, 0:35:43.480 --> 0:35:47.360 the San Diego Padres and aj Preller. You think that 0:35:47.480 --> 0:35:49.839 they are toast, Yes, I have. 0:35:49.840 --> 0:35:52.759 Them making the playoffs six percent of the time. What 0:35:52.800 --> 0:35:54.560 does Fangrafs have them at. 0:35:55.719 --> 0:35:59.920 Fangrafs has San Diego at seven point three percent. 0:36:00.560 --> 0:36:02.360 So I'm a little bit lower than they are. But 0:36:02.800 --> 0:36:06.279 both of us are basically saying that this team just 0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:09.000 shouldn't add. You say they're fifty and fifty three, they 0:36:09.040 --> 0:36:11.840 are fifty and fifty three. They're lucky to be fifty 0:36:11.840 --> 0:36:14.600 and fifty three. They really are when you look at 0:36:14.680 --> 0:36:17.320 run differential, when you look at expected win loss record, 0:36:17.920 --> 0:36:20.960 when you watch them on TV. We've talked about the 0:36:20.960 --> 0:36:23.759 Fangrafts projections, We've talked about expected win loss and all 0:36:23.800 --> 0:36:26.640 these fancy numbers. Watch them, Watch them for a game. 0:36:27.160 --> 0:36:30.319 This team can't hit. I mean, lately, I have been 0:36:30.320 --> 0:36:32.880 impressed with Fernando Tacis junior. He's looking a lot like 0:36:33.200 --> 0:36:35.920 the Tatis junior of old Jackson. Merril's even put some 0:36:35.960 --> 0:36:38.279 better swings on the ball. Manny Machado is actually on 0:36:38.360 --> 0:36:41.480 pace to hit thirty home runs, But in reality, ty 0:36:41.520 --> 0:36:43.640 Franz has been the best hitter on this team this season. 0:36:44.719 --> 0:36:47.279 That's what we're looking at, and this rotation is just 0:36:47.320 --> 0:36:51.160 pretty barren right now. You know, we love we love 0:36:51.160 --> 0:36:54.120 our guy, Walker Buehler, you know, but they have JP Sears, 0:36:54.120 --> 0:36:58.480 it's Herman Marquez, it's Griffin Canning with an opener. 0:36:59.480 --> 0:37:01.080 It's tough right now. 0:37:01.239 --> 0:37:04.360 And then the bullpen is obviously awesome, But the bullpen 0:37:04.400 --> 0:37:06.080 doesn't matter as much when you're already down in the 0:37:06.080 --> 0:37:07.719 game and the offense has only put up one run 0:37:07.760 --> 0:37:11.799 and your starter is given up three or four. And again, 0:37:11.840 --> 0:37:14.040 I'll go back to the Hembo stat. This team has 0:37:14.080 --> 0:37:15.520 won a lot of one run games, a lot of 0:37:15.560 --> 0:37:20.600 come from behind wins this season, which generally it's hard 0:37:20.600 --> 0:37:23.560 to project that moving forward. Just looking at what they've 0:37:23.600 --> 0:37:27.080 done this year, the Padres have no business stiffing the playoffs. 0:37:27.239 --> 0:37:30.520 And it's funny to see that Preller is still might bot. 0:37:31.320 --> 0:37:33.879 I disagree. I don't think he should and I think 0:37:33.920 --> 0:37:36.040 he should Listen to a lot of Padres fans out there, 0:37:36.280 --> 0:37:38.520 a lot of the Padres fans I'm seeing on social media, 0:37:39.440 --> 0:37:42.200 a lot of reporters people do great work covering the team, 0:37:42.200 --> 0:37:46.839 are like, don't do it. Trade expiring deals. We need 0:37:46.880 --> 0:37:49.120 to replenish this farm system. Have you seen what this 0:37:49.239 --> 0:37:53.520 team looks like. I agree with them who watch I mean, 0:37:53.520 --> 0:37:55.560 I watch a lot of baseball in general, but they're 0:37:55.600 --> 0:37:58.600 watching every game, all nine innings, and they're saying the 0:37:58.640 --> 0:38:02.040 same thing. Is what Fang says, what my model says, 0:38:02.360 --> 0:38:04.719 and what my brain says, which is that this team 0:38:04.840 --> 0:38:08.160 is a full tier below the teams were about to 0:38:08.160 --> 0:38:08.600 talk about. 0:38:09.480 --> 0:38:14.160 So the one counter is the offense is finally starting 0:38:14.160 --> 0:38:18.360 to get going. In nineteen games in July. Their seven 0:38:18.360 --> 0:38:21.600 to seventy seven ohps is sixth in baseball and they 0:38:21.600 --> 0:38:23.680 have twenty one stolen basis, which is one of the 0:38:23.719 --> 0:38:27.480 top marks in Major League Baseball. So San Diego is 0:38:27.520 --> 0:38:29.840 starting to get hot offensively at the right time. But 0:38:29.880 --> 0:38:31.680 to your point about the rotation, they're a whole bunch 0:38:31.719 --> 0:38:34.920 of weaknesses. But for the first two to three months 0:38:34.960 --> 0:38:36.640 of the year, we were just saying this team can't hit, 0:38:36.719 --> 0:38:38.400 this team can't hit, and then all of a sudden, 0:38:39.000 --> 0:38:40.520 they're starting to hit a little. 0:38:40.280 --> 0:38:44.160 Bit, but it's not resulting into wins. They're not gaining 0:38:44.160 --> 0:38:47.440 ground in any way. So as the offense starts to 0:38:47.480 --> 0:38:50.360 not look anemic, the starting pitching staff is starting to 0:38:50.400 --> 0:38:54.800 fall apart. They can't sink. So, yes, they've been better 0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:58.439 than futured lately on offense, I don't think it's enough, 0:38:59.239 --> 0:39:06.480 especially because again, the the teams in the National League 0:39:06.560 --> 0:39:08.680 are just simply better. If the Padres were in the 0:39:08.719 --> 0:39:11.319 American League, we might be having a different discussion. There's 0:39:11.360 --> 0:39:12.960 a lot of teams in the American League that if 0:39:13.000 --> 0:39:15.040 they were in the National League, we'd be having a 0:39:15.040 --> 0:39:19.400 different discussion. Sure, but we're talking about their competition. The Padres, 0:39:19.440 --> 0:39:22.440 don't sniff. I think the teams that we're about to 0:39:22.480 --> 0:39:25.200 talk about that are truly on the bubble. Do you agree, Like, 0:39:25.480 --> 0:39:28.960 I'm at six percent, fangrafts at seven percent. You didn't 0:39:29.000 --> 0:39:31.440 run a model, But like, where are you with the Padres? 0:39:31.480 --> 0:39:33.920 Like do you still when you hear those numbers, are 0:39:33.920 --> 0:39:35.640 you shocked by that or do you think, yeah, that's 0:39:35.640 --> 0:39:36.480 probably where they are. 0:39:37.360 --> 0:39:39.600 I'm like, no, I'm not shocked by it. But at 0:39:39.600 --> 0:39:41.760 the end of the day, like they still have Mason 0:39:41.760 --> 0:39:44.279 Miller employed to throw the ninth inning, they still have 0:39:44.400 --> 0:39:46.760 Moro Hone. I know that there have been some bullpen injuries, 0:39:46.800 --> 0:39:49.400 and they still have Fernando Tatis Junior starting to catch fire, 0:39:49.440 --> 0:39:52.359 and they still have Machado and Bogarts and Meryl. They 0:39:52.360 --> 0:39:55.160 have so many sleeping giants in this lineup. Man like 0:39:55.880 --> 0:39:58.800 Bogarts could have a two homer night over the weekend, 0:39:58.840 --> 0:40:01.600 and I wouldn't be supprise because it's Sander Bogarts and 0:40:01.640 --> 0:40:03.840 he's a two hundred and ninety million dollars player. Was 0:40:03.880 --> 0:40:05.879 he deserving a two ninety I don't know. I don't 0:40:05.880 --> 0:40:07.920 think so. Not a lot of people think so. But 0:40:07.920 --> 0:40:09.680 at the end of the day, he played to the 0:40:09.680 --> 0:40:12.560 place where a team gave him two hundred and ninety 0:40:12.640 --> 0:40:15.959 million dollars. So there's enough here for them to catch fire. 0:40:16.000 --> 0:40:18.240 And there's a lot of baseball left, Like there's fifty 0:40:18.360 --> 0:40:21.560 nine games left for the majority of these teams. So 0:40:22.120 --> 0:40:24.000 that's like the biggest thing that jumps out to me. 0:40:24.120 --> 0:40:26.279 But oh well, we're gonna get to the teams that 0:40:26.320 --> 0:40:29.040 are actually on the bubble. But before that, really exciting 0:40:29.120 --> 0:40:34.040 opportunity presented with our friends at LIDS, Colson Montgomery, the 0:40:34.080 --> 0:40:37.160 star shortstop for the Chicago White Sox, we are going 0:40:37.200 --> 0:40:40.239 to be having a meet and greet because of the 0:40:40.280 --> 0:40:44.240 Tops Chrome release. It's going to be tomorrow here July 0:40:44.360 --> 0:40:47.279 twenty fifth, it's going to be at the Lidds at 0:40:47.320 --> 0:40:50.080 water Tower place, So eight thirty five North Michigan Avenue 0:40:50.120 --> 0:40:53.960 in Chicago tomorrow at eleven am Central time at the 0:40:54.000 --> 0:40:56.400 Lids at water Tower. It's a meet and greet to 0:40:56.440 --> 0:40:59.160 celebrate the release of Tops Chrome with White Sox star 0:40:59.200 --> 0:41:02.200 shortstop Cold Montgomery. So if you are in the Chicago 0:41:02.360 --> 0:41:04.560 area and want to meet one of the better young 0:41:04.600 --> 0:41:07.760 shortstops in Major League Baseball and rip up some great 0:41:07.760 --> 0:41:10.040 cards with our friends at Lydd's, head on over the 0:41:10.120 --> 0:41:12.600 Lids at water Tower again, eight thirty five North Michigan 0:41:12.640 --> 0:41:16.359 Avenue in Chicago. Really exciting stuff. Yeah, I'll be there. 0:41:16.920 --> 0:41:17.360 Can come me. 0:41:17.440 --> 0:41:20.160 Colson rip Tops Chrome in store for a chance to 0:41:20.200 --> 0:41:23.600 win a free jersey through their Rip to Rep program. 0:41:23.920 --> 0:41:25.120 So it's going to be a lot of fun. I'll 0:41:25.120 --> 0:41:27.200 be doing a short interview with them with our guy 0:41:27.239 --> 0:41:29.480 Elijah Evans as well. So yeah, if you want to 0:41:29.480 --> 0:41:32.319 come by, say what's up, meet Colson Montgomery. It's gonna 0:41:32.320 --> 0:41:34.760 be really fun again at the LYDDS the water Tower 0:41:35.640 --> 0:41:41.520 in Chicago, eleven am Central on Saturday, July twenty fifth. 0:41:42.200 --> 0:41:44.120 Love it all right, let's get to the NL bubble 0:41:44.160 --> 0:41:45.640 teams right now, and the first one that you have 0:41:45.719 --> 0:41:47.799 listed here is the Marlins. I will defer to you 0:41:47.880 --> 0:41:50.400 for a lot of this stuff, but the Miami Marlins 0:41:50.480 --> 0:41:53.240 right now, they currently sit a game over five hundred 0:41:53.280 --> 0:41:55.200 and fifty two and fifty one. They're eight and a 0:41:55.239 --> 0:41:59.239 half back in the division. Fangrafs has them making the 0:41:59.239 --> 0:42:03.080 playoffs at a fourteen point five percent chance, and they 0:42:03.120 --> 0:42:05.520 sit two back of the n wild card picture. The 0:42:05.600 --> 0:42:07.520 hot Arizona Diamondbacks, what say you. 0:42:08.040 --> 0:42:13.160 I'm slightly lower at thirteen percent. But it's funny though, 0:42:13.200 --> 0:42:17.440 because my win total projection for them is like eighty 0:42:17.680 --> 0:42:21.200 point one, which is slightly higher than a team like 0:42:21.239 --> 0:42:23.640 the Orioles, who have a thirty percent chance of making 0:42:23.960 --> 0:42:26.000 in the American League, You know what I mean, They're 0:42:26.080 --> 0:42:29.280 kind of a victim of the league that they play 0:42:29.320 --> 0:42:31.879 in because there's so many other good teams. I mean, 0:42:31.880 --> 0:42:33.919 we're gonna talk about the Nats, We're gonna talk about 0:42:33.920 --> 0:42:36.799 the Pirates, the Cardinals, and the d Backs, and there's 0:42:36.840 --> 0:42:42.239 only so many spots, especially because there's no guarantees in baseball. 0:42:42.280 --> 0:42:46.120 Clearly we know this, but a lot of teams are 0:42:46.200 --> 0:42:48.879 fighting in the American League for the second and third 0:42:48.920 --> 0:42:52.479 wild card spot. The Marlins and all the other teams 0:42:52.480 --> 0:42:54.200 that we're going to talk about are kind of fighting 0:42:54.239 --> 0:42:58.280 for only one spot because the Cubs and the Phillies 0:42:58.320 --> 0:43:02.560 are just so damn good. So while you see thirteen percent, 0:43:03.160 --> 0:43:05.319 I actually think they're on a very similar talent level 0:43:05.360 --> 0:43:06.960 as like a team like the Orioles, where they're going 0:43:07.000 --> 0:43:08.320 to finish close to five hundred. 0:43:09.080 --> 0:43:11.279 And I think what. 0:43:12.719 --> 0:43:16.960 My model is a little bit nervous about is, you 0:43:16.960 --> 0:43:18.840 know how you kind of mentioned with the White Sox 0:43:18.960 --> 0:43:21.120 where it's a lot of guys that are having good 0:43:21.160 --> 0:43:25.080 seasons in the bullpen, but they haven't done it before, 0:43:25.360 --> 0:43:28.840 Like there isn't that kind of there hasn't been that 0:43:28.880 --> 0:43:31.320 consistency year over year. It's like a lot of guys 0:43:31.320 --> 0:43:33.120 that have come up and have had good seasons. 0:43:33.840 --> 0:43:34.879 I think the. 0:43:34.920 --> 0:43:37.080 Model is factoring some of that in a little bit 0:43:37.160 --> 0:43:41.640 for a lot of these guys. And the rotation right 0:43:41.680 --> 0:43:45.359 now with Max Meyer getting hurt, that's just a tough 0:43:45.360 --> 0:43:48.280 one because after Sandy and you know, I love Yuri, 0:43:49.080 --> 0:43:55.040 but Ryan Gusto, Jansen, Junkin, Tyler Phillips, you're likely at 0:43:55.080 --> 0:43:59.080 a scheduled disadvantage for a lot of it. However, I 0:43:59.360 --> 0:44:03.400 really like that this offense. I mean, Otto and Stowers 0:44:03.440 --> 0:44:06.400 has been hitting better. Roberto Hernandez has been a really 0:44:06.400 --> 0:44:09.040 good bat against left handed pitching. I still think Xavier 0:44:09.440 --> 0:44:12.440 Edwards is solid. I think Liam Hicks is solid. Griffin Conine, 0:44:12.840 --> 0:44:15.000 you know, our friend has had an awesome year. He's 0:44:15.000 --> 0:44:18.000 sitting with a one forty two WRC plus. I think 0:44:18.080 --> 0:44:20.720 Jacob Marcy is better than the seventy three WRC plus 0:44:20.719 --> 0:44:23.600 he's shown. And I like Joe Max So I really 0:44:23.640 --> 0:44:26.320 like this offense. But I think the Max Meyer injury 0:44:26.400 --> 0:44:30.160 hurts the depth from a starting rotation standpoint scares me 0:44:30.200 --> 0:44:32.279 a little bit. And I think the bullpen is hit 0:44:32.360 --> 0:44:34.239 or miss. It could be better than I think, it 0:44:34.280 --> 0:44:35.000 could be worse than. 0:44:35.040 --> 0:44:35.400 I think. 0:44:35.560 --> 0:44:39.120 It's just hard to grade them in general. So among 0:44:39.200 --> 0:44:43.000 the teams that we're going to talk about, they're not last. 0:44:43.360 --> 0:44:44.960 We're going to talk about the Nationals. I have the 0:44:44.960 --> 0:44:47.839 Marlins ahead of the Nationals, but I just don't think 0:44:47.840 --> 0:44:50.360 they're quite as strong as the Cardinals and the Pirates. 0:44:51.600 --> 0:44:54.480 So I will give you a if the Marlins get in, 0:44:54.640 --> 0:44:57.800 this is why take and then we'll push on. I 0:44:58.680 --> 0:45:02.280 guess we're waiting like a official diagnosis and severity on Meyer. 0:45:02.360 --> 0:45:04.480 We just know he's on the IL right now. What 0:45:04.520 --> 0:45:06.400 does that look like? Does that mean, you know, a 0:45:06.400 --> 0:45:08.839 couple of weeks. Does it mean he's back next week. 0:45:08.880 --> 0:45:11.040 Does it mean he's gone for an extended period of time. 0:45:11.080 --> 0:45:14.600 We don't know yet, so I guess he's been. So 0:45:16.120 --> 0:45:19.440 whenever he hits the IL, it's a huge loss if 0:45:19.440 --> 0:45:22.400 you haven't been tapped into what Uri Peiz is doing 0:45:22.520 --> 0:45:24.399 as of late. This is the best version of Uri 0:45:24.440 --> 0:45:27.719 that we've ever seen. He is on the attack. I 0:45:27.719 --> 0:45:31.280 think Uri continuing to throw like a frontline guy certainly helps. 0:45:31.640 --> 0:45:34.200 And I think when John King and Bender come back, 0:45:34.320 --> 0:45:37.880 this is a legit bullpen and the stuff in that 0:45:37.920 --> 0:45:42.400 bullpen is absolutely insane. I think the offense continues to 0:45:44.120 --> 0:45:46.719 hold this heat up that they experienced, like they were 0:45:46.800 --> 0:45:49.239 scorching hot from June first to like July tenth, but 0:45:49.320 --> 0:45:51.480 after that they tapered off for like a week. But 0:45:51.520 --> 0:45:54.239 then in Houston they did get going a little bit offensively. 0:45:54.280 --> 0:45:57.359 They were just three tough losses in Houston. I think 0:45:57.360 --> 0:46:00.200 if this if this offense pulses up again as a 0:46:00.200 --> 0:46:03.320 collective unit and they're built on pitching, which they have 0:46:03.440 --> 0:46:06.759 been for the last handful of years. That's how they 0:46:07.000 --> 0:46:09.560 get in here, so excited to do it document that 0:46:09.640 --> 0:46:12.400 as they continue to push. Let's go to the Washington 0:46:12.440 --> 0:46:15.640 Nationals here, and the Nats currently sit, I believe, tied 0:46:15.920 --> 0:46:19.040 with the Marlins here in the National League East right now. 0:46:19.120 --> 0:46:22.759 Washington currently sits at fifty two and fifty one, so 0:46:22.800 --> 0:46:24.840 they again are eight and a half back of the 0:46:24.880 --> 0:46:28.600 division and Fangrafts gives them a seven percent chance of 0:46:28.640 --> 0:46:29.600 making the postseason. 0:46:29.640 --> 0:46:32.360 What say you, Yeah, I'm at seven point one with 0:46:32.440 --> 0:46:35.919 the Nationals with a projected win total of seventy eight 0:46:36.440 --> 0:46:42.800 point seven, and I have absolutely zero problems with this offense. 0:46:43.200 --> 0:46:47.560 I think it's a really fun, good offense, really entertaining 0:46:47.560 --> 0:46:48.040 to watch. 0:46:48.880 --> 0:46:51.200 Here's my issue. 0:46:51.320 --> 0:46:53.799 Are they truly the second best team in baseball when 0:46:53.840 --> 0:46:55.880 it comes to ops for the rest of the season. 0:46:57.120 --> 0:46:58.680 I think it's just going to be hard to maintain. 0:46:59.000 --> 0:47:00.840 When you got Abrams and you got Garcia and you 0:47:00.920 --> 0:47:04.160 got James Wood, really anything can happen. But outside of 0:47:04.239 --> 0:47:08.759 kiber Luiz, those are your three or four guys who 0:47:08.760 --> 0:47:12.120 have a WRC plus above one. Hundred right, Like when 0:47:12.160 --> 0:47:15.080 you look at the bench, Mead Schaparro and Harry Ford, 0:47:15.120 --> 0:47:17.920 they have all been hitting well. It's like guys who 0:47:17.920 --> 0:47:22.080 I think have hit hot spurts. But as a total offense, 0:47:22.880 --> 0:47:24.759 I still think they're going to be top ten. I 0:47:24.880 --> 0:47:27.239 really love this offense. I just don't think they're going 0:47:27.320 --> 0:47:29.360 to be second, which again I think is going to hurt, 0:47:30.040 --> 0:47:33.319 especially if the bullpen continues to blow games as one 0:47:33.360 --> 0:47:36.160 of the worst bullpens in Major League Baseball and they 0:47:36.160 --> 0:47:40.040 struggle to find a really good pitcher outside of Cavali 0:47:40.120 --> 0:47:42.799 and Foster Griffin at the top of the rotation. So 0:47:43.440 --> 0:47:46.279 I think there's just a big bottom out potential with 0:47:46.360 --> 0:47:49.400 this team, and that's why I think I'm lower on 0:47:49.480 --> 0:47:52.640 them than all of the rest. Like the Marlins, to me, 0:47:52.960 --> 0:47:55.359 feel like they just have a higher floor. Like when 0:47:55.400 --> 0:47:58.160 the Marlins play bad and the Nationals play bad, the 0:47:58.280 --> 0:48:02.440 Nationals play a lot worse. When both teams are playing well, 0:48:02.719 --> 0:48:04.759 I don't think the gap is all that different. So 0:48:04.800 --> 0:48:08.440 it's more of a bottom out projection for the Nationals 0:48:08.600 --> 0:48:11.080 that has a much higher possibility than the other teams. 0:48:11.719 --> 0:48:14.080 And we know that Washington isn't going to buy like 0:48:14.120 --> 0:48:16.640 they're not going to push chips in, so you know, like, 0:48:17.080 --> 0:48:21.800 do they go and get low cost relievers in hopes 0:48:21.840 --> 0:48:24.440 of doing this? Maybe. I don't think it's so locked 0:48:24.480 --> 0:48:26.479 that they're just going to try scouring the DFA market. 0:48:26.480 --> 0:48:28.200 I don't think it makes much sense to do it. 0:48:29.080 --> 0:48:30.960 If they get in, it's because they win a whole 0:48:31.000 --> 0:48:33.719 bunch of games ten eight. If they don't get in, 0:48:33.760 --> 0:48:35.640 it's because they lose a whole bunch of games ten eight. 0:48:35.640 --> 0:48:39.799 To be totally honest with you, this offense can hit 0:48:39.880 --> 0:48:42.480 their way into the conversation. They can hit their way 0:48:42.520 --> 0:48:44.440 to a handful of more wins. It's just over the 0:48:44.480 --> 0:48:46.759 course of sixty games, can they be the last one 0:48:46.800 --> 0:48:49.279 standing out of five or six teams that are in 0:48:49.320 --> 0:48:52.440 contention for one wildcard spot? I don't think the pitching 0:48:52.520 --> 0:48:54.080 is built to do that for Washington. 0:48:54.480 --> 0:48:57.080 I will say, though, this has been such a successful 0:48:57.400 --> 0:48:59.880 season for this team. I mean, they were pretty successful 0:49:00.320 --> 0:49:02.799 with the second They were projected to finish with the 0:49:02.840 --> 0:49:04.960 second worst record at the beginning of the season to 0:49:05.040 --> 0:49:07.839 the Colorado Rockies. I think I got a big take wrong. 0:49:08.000 --> 0:49:09.880 I said they would finish with the worst record in 0:49:09.920 --> 0:49:12.200 Major League Baseball, I'm pretty sure I said that at 0:49:12.200 --> 0:49:13.000 the beginning of the year. 0:49:13.280 --> 0:49:13.880 I was wrong. 0:49:14.000 --> 0:49:17.279 This team has totally outdone my expectations. They've outdone a 0:49:17.280 --> 0:49:20.960 lot of people's expectations. However, they still have that dark 0:49:21.000 --> 0:49:23.160 cloud hanging over them, and that is the second half 0:49:23.160 --> 0:49:25.640 of the season. We saw what happened to them last year. 0:49:25.680 --> 0:49:27.959 In the second half of the season, every single hitter 0:49:28.280 --> 0:49:30.360 fell off the face of the earth. McKenzie gore. I 0:49:30.400 --> 0:49:33.240 think you put it up an era at twelve. Obviously, 0:49:33.320 --> 0:49:35.120 McKenzie gore is now a ranger, so that's what they 0:49:35.200 --> 0:49:36.000 might have to deal with. 0:49:36.040 --> 0:49:37.080 But just overall, this. 0:49:37.080 --> 0:49:41.360 Team completely fell off. I don't think they're going to 0:49:41.440 --> 0:49:46.040 do that this year, but I am saying that it's 0:49:46.040 --> 0:49:47.600 not out of the rama possibility. 0:49:48.239 --> 0:49:50.960 Yeah, all right, next team that we got to talk 0:49:50.960 --> 0:49:54.120 about here, the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll make this very easy. 0:49:54.520 --> 0:49:58.160 The Pirates as it stands right now, Pittsburgh fifty three 0:49:58.200 --> 0:50:00.319 and fifty three over There were eleven and a half 0:50:00.320 --> 0:50:03.319 back in the central But Fangrafts does give them a 0:50:03.800 --> 0:50:06.560 forty five point six percent chance of making it to 0:50:06.600 --> 0:50:08.920 the postseason, and the Pirates currently set a game out 0:50:08.960 --> 0:50:12.440 at a final wildcard spot right behind the Arizona Diamondbacks. 0:50:13.440 --> 0:50:15.920 They can slug their way to the dance, point blank 0:50:16.080 --> 0:50:18.719 in period. If they get in, it's because this Marly 0:50:18.840 --> 0:50:21.759 Valdez continues to do the things that he has been 0:50:21.800 --> 0:50:23.800 doing and they continue to hit the ball out of 0:50:23.800 --> 0:50:27.000 the ballpark. If they don't get in, it's because Ben 0:50:27.080 --> 0:50:29.560 Charrington didn't do enough for the bullpen at the deadline. 0:50:29.600 --> 0:50:32.560 That bullpen is not good. They just dfa Dennis Santana. 0:50:32.880 --> 0:50:35.400 That's crazy coming into this year thinking that they were 0:50:35.440 --> 0:50:38.760 going to DFA Santana before the deadline and they would 0:50:38.800 --> 0:50:41.680 still be in contention. But that's where we sit, no 0:50:41.760 --> 0:50:42.400 doubt about it. 0:50:42.440 --> 0:50:46.040 They just traded for Ron Maronaccio and then dfa Dennis Santana. 0:50:46.080 --> 0:50:49.200 That's wild to me. So of the five teams here, 0:50:49.239 --> 0:50:51.239 the Marlins, the Nats, the Pirates, the Cardinals, and the 0:50:51.280 --> 0:50:52.800 d Backs. We're going to talk about the Cardinals and 0:50:52.840 --> 0:50:55.080 the d Backs in a second. I have the Pirates 0:50:55.080 --> 0:50:58.799 with the highest win total by point one over the 0:50:58.840 --> 0:51:02.319 d Backs, and then right there is the Cardinals. And 0:51:02.360 --> 0:51:05.319 again the Marlins are two wins behind the Cardinals, so 0:51:05.360 --> 0:51:07.919 it's really not that big of a gap. But I've 0:51:08.000 --> 0:51:10.880 just been continually pressed with this Pirates team because what 0:51:10.960 --> 0:51:14.160 we're what were we worried about going into the season, Jack, 0:51:14.800 --> 0:51:18.239 that this defense was going to be a massive problem, 0:51:18.600 --> 0:51:20.600 the starting pitching was going to be great, the bullpen 0:51:20.680 --> 0:51:22.560 was going to be horrible, and that the offense was 0:51:22.560 --> 0:51:25.759 going to be mediocre. The offense has been much better 0:51:25.800 --> 0:51:28.720 than mediocre. And again, it has been without Connor Griffin, 0:51:28.760 --> 0:51:31.760 it's been without O'Neill Cruise, it's been without Spencer Horrowitz. 0:51:31.800 --> 0:51:34.160 Like all of these guys have missed time. When all 0:51:34.160 --> 0:51:37.600 of them come back, this is a really good offense. 0:51:37.640 --> 0:51:39.919 I'm sorry, it is like they could add one more 0:51:39.960 --> 0:51:42.840 bat and now Ezmerline Valdez has certainly been holding it 0:51:42.920 --> 0:51:45.959 up here, but as they get back reinforcements, they can 0:51:46.200 --> 0:51:50.239 replace at least some of that production from Valdez. And 0:51:51.800 --> 0:51:54.080 have you been watching Bubba Chandler lately? Like I know 0:51:54.120 --> 0:51:56.600 you just talked about Yuri. Bubba hasn't been that good, 0:51:56.880 --> 0:51:59.799 but he's at least improving. Mitch Keller just tossed six 0:52:00.400 --> 0:52:02.759 against my Yankees. That'll probably be his best start of 0:52:02.760 --> 0:52:07.319 the season. But and Braxton Ashcroft got crushed for six earned. Yeah, 0:52:07.400 --> 0:52:09.640 I think that'll be his worst start of the season. 0:52:10.200 --> 0:52:13.880 Jared Jones lately, dear God, the guys that are ninety 0:52:13.920 --> 0:52:16.360 nine at the top of the zone with his patented 0:52:16.400 --> 0:52:18.960 breaking ball. He looks like the Jared Jones that we 0:52:19.040 --> 0:52:21.920 know and love, which is an elite pitcher in this game. 0:52:22.239 --> 0:52:25.360 So the rotation is coming into form. I like this offense, 0:52:25.680 --> 0:52:28.200 and it'll be on Ben Charrington to address the bullpen 0:52:28.600 --> 0:52:31.960 and you know what, Overpay, sure do it, because I 0:52:32.040 --> 0:52:34.680 really do think that this team can compete if they 0:52:34.680 --> 0:52:36.600 get a couple of solid bullpen arms, and I think 0:52:36.600 --> 0:52:38.560 they can go up against the Cubs, they can go 0:52:38.640 --> 0:52:40.400 up against the Phillies and compete. 0:52:40.480 --> 0:52:42.120 I really do like I don't think. 0:52:42.320 --> 0:52:44.760 I think the Pirates, if they add a couple bullpen arms, 0:52:44.920 --> 0:52:48.120 are better than what the Reds were last year as 0:52:48.160 --> 0:52:50.080 that third wildcard team. 0:52:50.640 --> 0:52:52.640 Yes, I could totally see that. And at the end 0:52:52.640 --> 0:52:54.400 of the day, to your point about the offense being 0:52:54.520 --> 0:52:57.640 objectively good, the Pirate offense right now is number one 0:52:57.640 --> 0:52:59.680 in baseball and batting average it's number two, and OBP 0:52:59.800 --> 0:53:02.560 it's number three, and team ops they're eighth, and homers 0:53:02.600 --> 0:53:05.200 they're eighth in bags and most importantly their second in 0:53:05.280 --> 0:53:07.800 run score, and this offense is legit. 0:53:08.120 --> 0:53:10.560 They're number one against right handed pitching, which I think 0:53:10.680 --> 0:53:14.560 is super important, right because you face a lot more righties. 0:53:14.200 --> 0:53:15.200 Than you do lefties. 0:53:15.840 --> 0:53:20.640 Yeah, and being the number one offense is incredible, Like 0:53:21.040 --> 0:53:24.160 they deserve a lot of respect here. So yeah, of 0:53:24.200 --> 0:53:26.520 all these bubble teams, I think the Pirates are going 0:53:26.560 --> 0:53:28.200 to be the third wild card team. 0:53:28.200 --> 0:53:31.000 They're my pick. All right. Two more teams in the 0:53:31.080 --> 0:53:32.520 National League that we got to talk about here, the 0:53:32.520 --> 0:53:35.960 Saint Louis Cardinals. Cardinals are an interesting conversation right now, 0:53:35.960 --> 0:53:38.799 and Saint Louis is still firmly in the thick of it. 0:53:38.880 --> 0:53:41.200 Cardinals are fifty two and fifty twelve back in the 0:53:41.320 --> 0:53:44.680 Enal Central FANGRAFS gives them a twenty point four percent 0:53:44.760 --> 0:53:47.640 chance of making it to the postseason. They currently sit 0:53:48.000 --> 0:53:49.560 fifth in the wild card standings. 0:53:51.000 --> 0:53:54.399 This is tough because right now I have the Cardinals 0:53:54.600 --> 0:53:59.000 at twenty nine percent chance of making the playoffs again, 0:53:59.160 --> 0:54:02.680 still really in the hunt, and I've called him a 0:54:02.680 --> 0:54:05.040 playoff team for a while, but now I'm just starting 0:54:05.080 --> 0:54:06.839 to sour on that a little bit. And a big 0:54:06.880 --> 0:54:08.880 reason why is this bullpen is starting to kind of 0:54:08.880 --> 0:54:11.200 fall apart a little bit. Right now, they've fallen all 0:54:11.239 --> 0:54:14.040 the way to twentieth and era twenty first and whip 0:54:14.719 --> 0:54:18.520 they're twenty fourth in strikeouts per nine. You know, Dustin 0:54:18.560 --> 0:54:21.280 May isn't really on his heat or anymore. Michael McGreevey 0:54:21.320 --> 0:54:23.960 has been great, Kyle Lahy has been great, but the 0:54:24.080 --> 0:54:25.880 rotation is starting to take a little bit of a 0:54:25.920 --> 0:54:28.840 step back. And this offense is still really solid. But 0:54:29.960 --> 0:54:32.400 Mason Win, we need you to step up offensively. We 0:54:32.440 --> 0:54:35.680 know how good you are defensively. But Jack he's got 0:54:35.680 --> 0:54:39.520 a six thirty four ops. Blaize Jordan, they've called him up. 0:54:39.520 --> 0:54:42.360 He hasn't done anything. Jimmy Crooks at the catch position 0:54:42.400 --> 0:54:45.040 hasn't really done anything. I know they still got Pedro Pajez, 0:54:45.120 --> 0:54:47.719 but he hasn't done anything offensively either. Like, we know 0:54:47.800 --> 0:54:50.920 how good the top five are, we know it. The 0:54:51.000 --> 0:54:53.880 problem is they drop off a cliff at the end 0:54:53.880 --> 0:54:56.880 of the lineup, and a player that is definitely an 0:54:57.000 --> 0:54:59.680 X factor for the second half is Mason Win. We' 0:55:00.239 --> 0:55:03.319 hi hit to a mid seven hundreds ops. That could 0:55:03.320 --> 0:55:07.000 be enough to change a couple of ballgames. Yeah, so 0:55:07.680 --> 0:55:11.560 he I'm watching him. I'm watching this Cardinals bullpen, but 0:55:11.680 --> 0:55:13.920 at the end of the day, I think another reason 0:55:13.960 --> 0:55:14.879 I'm souring on him. 0:55:15.200 --> 0:55:17.200 I don't think they're going to be aggressive at the deadline. 0:55:17.280 --> 0:55:20.200 I think I'm going to see twenty five percent chance 0:55:20.200 --> 0:55:22.040 of making the playoffs and say, all right, we're gonna 0:55:22.040 --> 0:55:25.320 start selling. I still think the Cardinals finish around five hundred. 0:55:25.320 --> 0:55:27.640 They have a nice season again, ahead of schedule. Can't 0:55:27.640 --> 0:55:30.600 forget they started at sixty eight and a half, but 0:55:30.960 --> 0:55:33.279 ultimately outside looking in. 0:55:34.480 --> 0:55:38.400 Yes. The other big thing to me is if Riley 0:55:38.400 --> 0:55:41.239 O'Brien was still pitching like an All star, I would 0:55:41.320 --> 0:55:44.360 be convinced because they could cut the game by an inning. 0:55:44.480 --> 0:55:47.640 But he's not. Like Riley O'Brien has been very fragile 0:55:47.719 --> 0:55:50.640 over the last month and a half or so, and 0:55:51.040 --> 0:55:53.160 it was really fun while it lasted at the beginning 0:55:53.200 --> 0:55:54.600 of the year and at the end of last year. 0:55:54.600 --> 0:55:57.239 But Riley O'Brien, I'm just not sure if he's that guy. 0:55:57.480 --> 0:56:00.400 To be totally honest with you, so I'm with you. Yeah, 0:56:00.440 --> 0:56:04.120 pitching deficiencies, they could be holding them out, but still 0:56:04.160 --> 0:56:06.080 have Walker and weather Hole to your point, so they 0:56:06.080 --> 0:56:10.080 can absolutely slug their way into the conversation, but I'd 0:56:10.120 --> 0:56:12.480 be pretty hard pressed to see how they don't kind 0:56:12.480 --> 0:56:14.279 of pitch their way out of it over the next 0:56:14.320 --> 0:56:17.120 two months, no doubt. Last team that we yeah, last 0:56:17.120 --> 0:56:18.360 team that we got to talk about here is the 0:56:18.400 --> 0:56:21.000 Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West, and they are 0:56:21.000 --> 0:56:25.719 on fire right now. Arizona currently in terms of the 0:56:25.719 --> 0:56:29.480 wild card picture, sits in the final wildcard spot. They're 0:56:29.520 --> 0:56:31.319 fifty four and forty nine. They've won eight of the 0:56:31.360 --> 0:56:33.560 last ten, They've won three in a row. They now 0:56:33.560 --> 0:56:37.360 have a positive run differential at plus one, and the 0:56:37.440 --> 0:56:41.760 Arizona Diamondbacks, according to Fangrafts, have a forty percent chance 0:56:41.920 --> 0:56:45.560 of making the postseason right now. Let's say you, so 0:56:46.120 --> 0:56:49.000 I am a little bit lower. 0:56:49.120 --> 0:56:52.160 I'm at thirty seven or thirty six point eight actually, 0:56:52.200 --> 0:56:54.040 to be exact, like, so I have the Pirates of 0:56:54.120 --> 0:56:56.480 thirty seven percent and the d Backs at thirty six 0:56:56.520 --> 0:57:00.600 point eight percent. It's really anybody's ballgame. But ty goes 0:57:00.640 --> 0:57:03.080 to my brain, and my brain is still picking the 0:57:03.080 --> 0:57:06.120 Pittsburgh Pirates. And the reason I'm not picking the Arizona 0:57:06.160 --> 0:57:10.399 Diamonbacks is I have no idea what to think about 0:57:10.400 --> 0:57:14.080 this rotation, said Wardo. Rodriguez, going to continue to pitch 0:57:14.120 --> 0:57:17.480 to a two six'. Two, honestly MAYBE i have my. 0:57:17.560 --> 0:57:22.960 Doubts Mitch, bratt he's twenty, Three he's got almost as 0:57:23.000 --> 0:57:25.840 many walks as strikeouts so far and his ten and two. 0:57:25.880 --> 0:57:29.360 Thirds Cole drake another prospect who they, got young Lefty 0:57:29.880 --> 0:57:32.560 Merril kelly who's had a terrible, season striking out five 0:57:32.600 --> 0:57:35.000 and a half per. Nine And Brandon fodd has put 0:57:35.040 --> 0:57:36.480 together good, starts but at the end of the, day 0:57:36.520 --> 0:57:38.520 he's got a four to four to THREE. Era like 0:57:38.560 --> 0:57:40.320 a lot of the D backs, problems, again are not their. 0:57:40.360 --> 0:57:43.360 Fault if you told Me Michael, Soroka Ryan, Nelson Zach, 0:57:43.400 --> 0:57:45.880 allen and Gorbyin burns were in this, rotation we're having 0:57:45.920 --> 0:57:48.720 a way different, discussion Right SO i think that's the 0:57:48.760 --> 0:57:53.160 difference IS i trust The pirates. ROTATION i do not 0:57:53.400 --> 0:57:56.480 trust The diamondbacks rotation at. All, HOWEVER i think the 0:57:56.560 --> 0:57:59.760 D backs bullpen is actually a full, tier if not, 0:57:59.800 --> 0:58:02.480 more above The Pittsburgh. Pirates but, AGAIN i think The 0:58:02.480 --> 0:58:04.400 pirates are going to address. That what are the D 0:58:04.520 --> 0:58:09.240 backs gonna do trade for four? Starters and THEN i 0:58:09.240 --> 0:58:12.400 look at the. Offense your brain might tell you the 0:58:12.480 --> 0:58:15.720 D backs have a better offense because that's, what like, 0:58:15.960 --> 0:58:18.120 you you should think as a baseball. Fan he's been 0:58:18.160 --> 0:58:20.400 watching baseball for the last five. YEARS i like The 0:58:20.400 --> 0:58:23.120 pirates offense, better SO i THINK i got the better. 0:58:23.160 --> 0:58:27.200 OFFENSE i have the better starting pitching, staff and so 0:58:27.800 --> 0:58:29.680 this is just based on what it is so far this. 0:58:29.720 --> 0:58:32.400 SEASON i think The pirates are going to add bullpen, 0:58:32.520 --> 0:58:35.040 arms which will even increase their odds even. More that's 0:58:35.080 --> 0:58:37.320 why my pick is The pirates to be the third 0:58:37.360 --> 0:58:38.680 wildcard team behind The cubs in The. 0:58:38.680 --> 0:58:42.040 Phillies here's What i'll say About. ARIZONA i Think Mike 0:58:42.080 --> 0:58:45.280 haysen is going to put to the test the idea 0:58:45.400 --> 0:58:48.440 Of peralta not costing much as a rental and the 0:58:48.480 --> 0:58:51.760 idea Of gosman not costing much as a. Rental what 0:58:51.880 --> 0:58:55.040 is the price of a rental? Starter Because Mike hasen 0:58:55.160 --> 0:58:58.360 could realistically go get two rental, starters and it just 0:58:58.400 --> 0:59:01.840 depends on how good the rental starters. Are if you 0:59:01.960 --> 0:59:04.000 told me that you had an influx Of Freddi peerltza 0:59:04.000 --> 0:59:06.720 And Kevin gosbin in this D back, rotation what would 0:59:06.720 --> 0:59:11.360 you Say i'd get a little right more Ex. Yeah 0:59:11.600 --> 0:59:12.080 but here's the. 0:59:12.120 --> 0:59:14.600 THING i just gotta, remember where do you think the 0:59:14.640 --> 0:59:17.439 D backs rank an ops this year on? Offense because 0:59:17.440 --> 0:59:19.840 we're talking about the, rotation and the rotation is the biggest, 0:59:19.840 --> 0:59:23.080 problem but we can't overlook another problem that they. 0:59:23.120 --> 0:59:25.320 Have where do you think they? Rank, YEAH i MEAN 0:59:25.360 --> 0:59:27.560 i think their bottom half right their. 0:59:27.600 --> 0:59:31.000 Twentieth, like that's shocking to me about A dbacks team 0:59:31.240 --> 0:59:33.120 that is getting a great season From Gaby. 0:59:33.160 --> 0:59:36.480 Moreno it's. Funny now we get the Healthy gabby moreto this. Year, yeah, 0:59:36.600 --> 0:59:39.040 right and he's been the. Best he's been the best 0:59:39.080 --> 0:59:42.440 hitter in their lineup BY wrc. Plus, Uh Gaby, moreno 0:59:42.520 --> 0:59:44.520 how about. This since the beginning of twenty twenty, three 0:59:44.960 --> 0:59:48.160 The diamondbacks With morenos starting behind the, dish they are 0:59:48.200 --> 0:59:51.000 one sixty seven and one thirty. Eight they're nearly thirty 0:59:51.000 --> 0:59:54.000 games over five. Hundred with anybody, else they're forty six 0:59:54.080 --> 0:59:57.000 games under five. Hundred he is AN x factor for, 0:59:57.120 --> 0:59:59.680 them and again BY wrc, plus he has been the 0:59:59.720 --> 1:00:01.560 best hit her in their lineup this. Year he's been 1:00:01.560 --> 1:00:04.520 better Than, Carrol he's been better Than. Marte Gabby moreno 1:00:04.640 --> 1:00:07.840 has been the guy For. Arizona and to your, point it's, Like, 1:00:08.480 --> 1:00:10.920 okay there are a whole bunch of other glaring deficiencies right, 1:00:10.960 --> 1:00:13.760 now and the offense is a macro is bottom ten 1:00:13.800 --> 1:00:16.560 in baseball at. Ops but this Is moreno's healthy. 1:00:16.600 --> 1:00:19.320 Year here's how the D backs make. It here's how 1:00:19.360 --> 1:00:21.720 the D backs make. It Kdel marte has to play. 1:00:21.720 --> 1:00:24.800 Better he's been eight percent abovely gaverage this. Year, offensively you. 1:00:24.800 --> 1:00:27.080 Got to be. Better you're way better than. That you 1:00:27.120 --> 1:00:30.640 should be one forty by, now hold, on, god graphic, Discrepancy, 1:00:30.680 --> 1:00:32.560 peyton can you throw that graphic up one more? Time 1:00:32.560 --> 1:00:35.320 he said six games, under not forty. Six, OKAY i misread. 1:00:35.360 --> 1:00:36.960 THAT i thought they were one hundred and one forty. 1:00:37.000 --> 1:00:40.960 Six my. Bad, okay there's six hunderd five hundred when 1:00:41.000 --> 1:00:45.160 he's not. Catching they are nearly thirty over when he is. 1:00:45.200 --> 1:00:46.280 Catching so that's on. 1:00:46.440 --> 1:00:50.040 Me all, Good and then you have Coateel marte again 1:00:50.080 --> 1:00:53.240 who has to be, better and Are Aldo perdomo here's 1:00:53.280 --> 1:00:54.440 been one percent abovely. 1:00:54.520 --> 1:00:57.439 Gaverage he's got to be. Better those two have to step. 1:00:57.560 --> 1:00:59.600 Up Mike hazan has to make a big time trade 1:00:59.640 --> 1:01:02.680 first starting, pitcher and then we could talk but, again 1:01:03.200 --> 1:01:05.480 they could still do it BECAUSE i do like their, 1:01:05.520 --> 1:01:08.480 bullpen and if those front four are hitting and they 1:01:08.480 --> 1:01:11.840 get a decent enough starting pitching, performance they can beat 1:01:11.840 --> 1:01:13.760 a lot of. Teams Right they're going head to head 1:01:13.760 --> 1:01:16.720 against The cardinals doing just, fine beating the shit out 1:01:16.720 --> 1:01:16.960 of them. 1:01:17.040 --> 1:01:20.640 Yesterday so the D backs can absolutely. Compete but. 1:01:22.760 --> 1:01:25.200 Let's go over now we just had we have our. 1:01:25.240 --> 1:01:27.240 Picks maybe you'll stay away from The National league because 1:01:27.240 --> 1:01:28.720 The marlins are in. There i'll ask you about Your 1:01:28.760 --> 1:01:32.240 American league, thoughts, like who do you think the wildcard teams? 1:01:32.240 --> 1:01:37.440 Are, okay So, tampa The White, sox AND i will 1:01:37.480 --> 1:01:41.919 Have seattle winning this. Division so then that leaves three. 1:01:41.920 --> 1:01:46.640 SPOTS i Think texas gets, In Yankees. Cleveland oh, god that's. Tough, Yeah, 1:01:46.800 --> 1:01:50.919 NO i Think, Yankees, Cleveland. Boston those are my wild 1:01:51.000 --> 1:01:53.320 card picks right, now With seattle winning the division instead 1:01:53.320 --> 1:01:57.200 Of texas in The American League, west so mine IS i. 1:01:57.360 --> 1:02:03.440 Have that's, FUNNY i have The rays finishing in. Second 1:02:04.480 --> 1:02:07.880 BUT i my model has been low on The rays all. 1:02:07.960 --> 1:02:09.760 Year i'm going to throw that out the. Window i'm 1:02:09.760 --> 1:02:11.600 just going to say that The rays and The yankees 1:02:11.840 --> 1:02:13.240 are the. 1:02:13.280 --> 1:02:14.520 Winner and the wild card. 1:02:14.560 --> 1:02:17.760 Team, SURE i have The White sox winning the division 1:02:19.800 --> 1:02:22.520 and The Red sox is another wild card. Team so 1:02:22.720 --> 1:02:27.160 REALLY i just have one spot, left AND i think 1:02:27.280 --> 1:02:31.120 my one spot is going to go To. Cleveland AND 1:02:31.160 --> 1:02:33.640 i have The mariners missing the playoffs and The rangers making. 1:02:33.720 --> 1:02:34.760 IT i think those are my. 1:02:34.800 --> 1:02:37.520 Picks and then for The National, league you have The 1:02:37.560 --> 1:02:40.320 dodgers winning The, west you have The birwers winning The. 1:02:40.360 --> 1:02:43.560 Central you have The braves winning The, east and THEN 1:02:43.600 --> 1:02:48.920 i have who is? It cubs And phillies in and The. 1:02:48.960 --> 1:02:52.880 PIRATES a, Right that's WHY i, Go. 1:02:53.720 --> 1:02:56.160 Yeah we will rap real quick with the weekend. Preview 1:02:56.200 --> 1:02:58.440 but before, that one more quick word from Peanuts. 1:02:58.840 --> 1:03:02.080 Just baseball's number one ranked peanut prospect is none other 1:03:02.120 --> 1:03:05.480 than The Hampton farms In shell Peanut hit tool plus 1:03:05.520 --> 1:03:09.200 plus that crack of the shell is elite power easy 1:03:09.280 --> 1:03:13.360 plus seven grams of protein per serving makeup great source 1:03:13.400 --> 1:03:17.000 of fiber In america's number one in shell. Brand this 1:03:17.120 --> 1:03:20.760 is a five tool Snack Future value eighty. 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You and why? 1:04:54.800 --> 1:04:57.640 So Jared jones is just pitching so damn well that 1:04:57.840 --> 1:05:01.120 it's hard to really go against. Him but Remember jack 1:05:01.160 --> 1:05:04.320 WHEN i said that The pirates are the number one 1:05:04.360 --> 1:05:11.200 offense against right handed, pitching they're number eighteen against left handed. 1:05:11.240 --> 1:05:15.040 Pitching And Matthew boyd has looked okay. LATELY i think 1:05:15.080 --> 1:05:16.320 this is going to be a really good. 1:05:16.360 --> 1:05:22.040 Game but you know, WHAT i. Believe give me the. Buckos, 1:05:22.440 --> 1:05:25.800 okay next one for you at six forty five Pm 1:05:25.840 --> 1:05:29.800 Eastern time In, philadelphia It's Yankees. Phillies Cam schlitzler gets 1:05:29.800 --> 1:05:32.960 the ball on the road at a raucous environment against Teesus, 1:05:33.040 --> 1:05:34.800 lozardo who has been one of the best pitchers in 1:05:34.840 --> 1:05:36.240 baseball over the last two. 1:05:36.280 --> 1:05:38.680 Months, absolutely AND i think this is going to be 1:05:38.720 --> 1:05:39.320 an awesome. 1:05:39.360 --> 1:05:39.720 GAME i. 1:05:41.440 --> 1:05:45.760 Think that total is sneaky, low AND i think it's 1:05:45.760 --> 1:05:48.480 based on how good that these two starting. Pitchers my 1:05:48.600 --> 1:05:52.240 model actually liked the over for any betters out, there 1:05:52.600 --> 1:05:56.000 AND i think it's mostly because The phillies bullpen isn't 1:05:56.000 --> 1:05:58.440 all that great and The yankees bullpen is good at in, 1:05:58.720 --> 1:06:02.400 spots but it's nothing that necessarily The phillies should be 1:06:02.440 --> 1:06:04.800 all that afraid of when it comes to picking a. 1:06:04.840 --> 1:06:08.360 Winner a mode of like The phillies this, morning AND 1:06:08.400 --> 1:06:10.520 i don't really know. Why my brain Says. Yankees my 1:06:10.560 --> 1:06:13.880 model Says, phillies and since my brain is, BIASED i have. 1:06:13.840 --> 1:06:16.640 To go with The. Phillies, okay there we. Go good 1:06:16.680 --> 1:06:19.720 for you putting, IT i guess showing YOUR j card 1:06:19.760 --> 1:06:21.120 and putting away your. Bias that's. 1:06:21.200 --> 1:06:24.720 YEAH i really don't know why it's liking The phillies 1:06:24.960 --> 1:06:26.760 above The, yankees If i'm being honest with, you like 1:06:26.840 --> 1:06:29.520 It's Cam Schlitlerkem. 1:06:28.880 --> 1:06:31.280 Lozzarro has been, AMAZING i, know AND i think that's. 1:06:31.320 --> 1:06:33.320 WHY i think it's just they're at. Home it's giving 1:06:33.320 --> 1:06:34.080 them a little bit of a. 1:06:34.120 --> 1:06:36.960 BUMP i don't, know, YEAH i don't, know all, Right 1:06:37.080 --> 1:06:40.760 last one On friday, here huge wrap around series, again 1:06:41.000 --> 1:06:45.000 four game sets starting tonight In, Arlington Mariners. Rangers Bryce 1:06:45.080 --> 1:06:48.320 miller For seattle up against a left hander for The 1:06:48.440 --> 1:06:51.640 yankee or for The rangers against This mariner. Lineup Mackenzie 1:06:51.640 --> 1:06:55.240 gore gets the ball For. Texas i'm gonna go with The. 1:06:55.360 --> 1:06:58.280 Rangers The mariners have an eighty SEVEN wrc plus against 1:06:58.320 --> 1:07:00.560 left handed pitching this. YEAR i, mean they just can't hit. 1:07:00.600 --> 1:07:00.760 Him. 1:07:00.760 --> 1:07:03.120 Now Mackenzie gore has been kind of a pitching machine 1:07:03.640 --> 1:07:06.320 these pitching to AN era near. Five so you know 1:07:06.440 --> 1:07:08.280 this will be a big prove it game for The. 1:07:08.320 --> 1:07:10.440 Mariners can you beat your division rival and can you 1:07:10.520 --> 1:07:12.440 beat a left handed? Pitcher and The mariners have just 1:07:12.520 --> 1:07:14.960 Been sea song. Series they win a, series they lose a, 1:07:15.000 --> 1:07:16.920 series they win a, series they lose a. Series they 1:07:17.080 --> 1:07:19.160 just lost a. Series did they win? 1:07:19.240 --> 1:07:21.880 One we'll. SEE i do think that The rangers end 1:07:21.960 --> 1:07:25.760 up winning game. One, okay let's Talk saturday, now and 1:07:25.840 --> 1:07:28.760 now we pivot to The ballpark pal game previews. Here 1:07:29.320 --> 1:07:31.880 Sonny gray is starting for The Boston Red sox at 1:07:31.880 --> 1:07:34.640 four to ten At fenway Against Dylan cees in The 1:07:34.680 --> 1:07:37.120 Toronto Blue. JAYS i can't wait to watch this. 1:07:37.240 --> 1:07:39.600 Game and for all those again, looking ballpark pal is 1:07:39.640 --> 1:07:41.960 a great, model and they make The Red sox minus one. 1:07:42.040 --> 1:07:45.080 Ten remember we were talking about scheduled disadvantages for The 1:07:45.120 --> 1:07:47.919 Red sox against a guy Like Dylan cees the ballpark pole, 1:07:48.000 --> 1:07:50.200 model and maybe that's more because The Blue jays. STINK 1:07:51.600 --> 1:07:55.800 i think that's, fair AND i Think Dylan cees pitches. 1:07:55.840 --> 1:07:58.480 WELL i don't think The Blue jays are gonna sniff 1:07:59.480 --> 1:08:02.080 like three, Runs SO i will take The Red sox 1:08:02.120 --> 1:08:03.800 in this one at. Home they're just too good to 1:08:04.080 --> 1:08:05.120 bet against right, now. 1:08:05.640 --> 1:08:08.240 All, right seven to Ten eastern on the south side Of. 1:08:08.320 --> 1:08:11.240 Chicago Sean burke in The White. Sox Sean burke has 1:08:11.280 --> 1:08:13.640 been good so far this year Against Hunter brown and 1:08:13.680 --> 1:08:17.360 The Houston. Astros ballpark pile makes The White sox the. 1:08:17.439 --> 1:08:19.280 FAVORITE i agree with. 1:08:19.400 --> 1:08:22.800 Them Hunter brown just hasn't looked like The Hunter brown of, 1:08:22.880 --> 1:08:26.080 old While Sean burke is on an incredible heater right. 1:08:26.160 --> 1:08:28.599 Now he's looking at least in his last four or five, 1:08:28.680 --> 1:08:32.200 game you, know stretch as one of the better pitchers 1:08:32.240 --> 1:08:35.160 in The American. League i'm gonna ride the hot. HAND 1:08:35.280 --> 1:08:37.960 i like The White, sox especially at. HOME i Think 1:08:38.040 --> 1:08:40.240 burke can go right up Against Hunter brown and bang with. 1:08:40.280 --> 1:08:44.000 Them last one On saturday at seven fifteen At City 1:08:44.080 --> 1:08:47.280 field In New, York Yoshinobu yamamoto on the road to 1:08:47.360 --> 1:08:49.840 The dodgers Against nolan McLain and The New York. Mets 1:08:50.280 --> 1:08:51.800 what a sick. Game but you got The. 1:08:51.880 --> 1:08:56.000 DODGERS i, Mean noel McLain looked downright filthy in his last, 1:08:56.000 --> 1:08:57.920 start AND i think he's gonna perform well against The. 1:08:57.960 --> 1:09:01.360 Dodgers but you Got yamamoto with that. Offense forget, It. 1:09:01.680 --> 1:09:03.519 Dodgers all. 1:09:03.600 --> 1:09:07.360 Right now we pivot To sunday Here Cleveland tampa In, 1:09:07.600 --> 1:09:10.719 Tampa Parker, MESSIK i left you against That tampa lineup 1:09:11.000 --> 1:09:13.320 Against Drew, rasmussen pair of all stars in The American. 1:09:13.400 --> 1:09:15.960 League can't wait to watch this game as, well great 1:09:16.080 --> 1:09:19.800 starting pitching, matchup But rasmussen at home In. 1:09:20.040 --> 1:09:23.880 Tampa Love messic. LOVE i think The. 1:09:23.960 --> 1:09:28.040 GUARDIANS i think that this could be a sneaky team 1:09:28.080 --> 1:09:32.040 to actually win this. Series but in this, game you 1:09:32.200 --> 1:09:34.559 just can't go Against rasmussen at the. Drop give me The. 1:09:34.600 --> 1:09:37.720 Rays, okay that is A peacock. Game twelve. Fifteen first 1:09:37.760 --> 1:09:41.280 pitch at one thirty Five eastern time In. Baltimore It's 1:09:41.360 --> 1:09:45.240 Braves Orioles Roynaldo lopez Against Brandon young for The orioles 1:09:45.320 --> 1:09:49.360 in a bravez. Os So i'm not in love with this. 1:09:49.560 --> 1:09:52.440 GAME i more wanted to bring up Ballpark pals projection 1:09:53.320 --> 1:09:55.880 that they make The orioles a small favorite here against 1:09:55.920 --> 1:09:58.320 the team like The Atlanta. Braves AND i think a 1:09:58.360 --> 1:10:01.360 big reason why Is Brandon. Young he has been one 1:10:01.400 --> 1:10:04.479 of the most underrated, pitchers maybe the most underrated pitcher 1:10:04.520 --> 1:10:06.320 in all of baseball this, year pitching to a low, 1:10:06.400 --> 1:10:09.560 threes really good, fastball And Raynaldo lopez is just so 1:10:09.760 --> 1:10:11.840 hit or. MISS i grew with ballpark Palle give me the. 1:10:11.920 --> 1:10:13.639 O'S i think the Upset atlanta, here. 1:10:14.240 --> 1:10:16.320 And then why the heck did you feature this? One 1:10:16.400 --> 1:10:19.479 at two Ten, Eastern Jacob mizerowski and The brewers at 1:10:19.560 --> 1:10:21.080 home against The rockies And Kyle. 1:10:21.160 --> 1:10:24.400 Freeland it's the biggest pitching Mismatch i've ever seen in 1:10:24.479 --> 1:10:29.599 my entire. Life Jacob mizerowski thrown absolute fuel Against Kyle 1:10:29.680 --> 1:10:32.559 freeland try to get His zerra below seven with. 1:10:32.680 --> 1:10:36.920 The rockies on the. Road The brewers might with this 1:10:37.000 --> 1:10:40.439 game forty to thk not because are you are you 1:10:40.520 --> 1:10:42.840 calling a position player pitching in this? One oh, Yeah 1:10:42.840 --> 1:10:43.479 i'm calling. 1:10:43.600 --> 1:10:45.360 TWO i think this will be one of the first 1:10:45.400 --> 1:10:47.799 games we see where it's like we're bringing in position 1:10:47.880 --> 1:10:50.400 players by the. Sixth you see The tigers brought one 1:10:50.439 --> 1:10:53.280 in by the. Seventh just forfeit at that, point just, 1:10:53.360 --> 1:10:58.479 forfeit all, right that DOESN'T i brought up a bunch 1:10:58.479 --> 1:10:59.000 of games. 1:10:58.840 --> 1:10:59.600 That i'm going to watch ON. 1:10:59.720 --> 1:11:02.320 TV i will be watching That Brewers rockies game BECAUSE 1:11:02.320 --> 1:11:04.160 i want to see how stark a difference it is 1:11:04.200 --> 1:11:07.360 Watching Kyle freeland throw eighty seven To mizerowski throw one 1:11:07.439 --> 1:11:07.800 hundred and. 1:11:07.920 --> 1:11:11.439 Seven love? That all? Right that's our? Program tick us, out. 1:11:11.479 --> 1:11:14.160 Baby that'll do it for this episode Of The Just Baseball. 1:11:14.200 --> 1:11:16.680 Show hopefully you enjoyed all of the episodes this. Week 1:11:16.760 --> 1:11:22.639 feel like we provided some, bangers deadline, primer mock, trades playoff. 1:11:22.680 --> 1:11:25.040 BUBBLES i already forget what we did earlier on in 1:11:25.080 --> 1:11:27.840 the week a. Roundup if you enjoyed the best way 1:11:27.880 --> 1:11:30.800 to support The Just Baseball show for absolutely, free just 1:11:30.880 --> 1:11:33.240 smash the like button and the subscribe button on YouTube 1:11:33.280 --> 1:11:35.240 before you, go and if you're listening to us on, 1:11:35.360 --> 1:11:39.800 Audio spotify Or Apple, podcasts best way to best way 1:11:39.840 --> 1:11:43.160 to support the show is just by leaving a five star. 1:11:43.600 --> 1:11:46.400 Review if you want to get yourself some Just baseball 1:11:46.439 --> 1:11:48.639 merch links in the episode description you want to join 1:11:48.640 --> 1:11:50.400 the best baseball group chat in the world and talk 1:11:50.479 --> 1:11:53.519 deadline with us links in the episode description for Jack 1:11:53.680 --> 1:11:56.240 balling On Peter Apple special shout out to podcast p 1:11:56.439 --> 1:11:59.599 for brilliant. Producing once, again have a great. Weekend we'll 1:11:59.600 --> 1:12:02.960 see You sunday seven thirty pm From eastern for the 1:12:03.000 --> 1:12:06.320 weekend round, up Or i'll see you tomorrow for the 1:12:06.360 --> 1:12:08.840 meet and greet With Colson montgomery at The lids In. 1:12:08.960 --> 1:12:10.840 Chicago and with, that thank, you m