Speaker 1: By Jecker.
Speaker 2: Bring.
Speaker 1: We will see you to the corner. Welcome and one
Speaker 1: hang out. Just Baseball Show is live. Thank you so
Speaker 1: much for joining us wherever you may be ingesting this
Speaker 1: podcast video wise. Thanks for joining us live on YouTube
Speaker 1: or X. Thank you for joining us.
Speaker 3: After the fact on YouTube or X. I guess people
Speaker 3: watch archived lives on X.
Speaker 1: And then thank you for joining us on Spotify or
Speaker 1: Apple Podcast Jack follow Peter Apple Peyton geus here. As always,
Speaker 1: Just Baseball Show here on Friday, July twenty fourth, is
Speaker 1: going to be built around the teams on the bubble
Speaker 1: in the American League and the National League. There are
Speaker 1: a handful of teams contending for only oh so many spots.
Speaker 1: There are teams that kind of seem signed, sealed and
Speaker 1: delivered at this point. But who are the teams vying
Speaker 1: for the final one or two or three if you're
Speaker 1: the American League, vying for that final wildcard spot or
Speaker 1: one of those wild card spots. We are going to
Speaker 1: assess what could get them in, what could hold them back.
Speaker 1: As always, it's the Just Baseball Show presented by whom
Speaker 1: bet MGM.
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Speaker 3: Jack I ran another.
Speaker 1: Model, Yeah, and I asked you via text to run
Speaker 1: it one hundred thousand more times. I need as many
Speaker 1: simulations as humanly possible from you. Whenever you say model,
Speaker 1: I say more fair, I agree.
Speaker 3: I did run it one hundred thousand times. A lot
Speaker 3: of simulations already, Yeah.
Speaker 1: Fifty thousand more, let's go.
Speaker 3: And I think this is important to remember, Like with
Speaker 3: the model has been very good to me for my futures.
Speaker 3: It's what I make my win total projections on over
Speaker 3: the season, and then I like to compare them to
Speaker 3: the Fangrafts projections. And I also like to compare them
Speaker 3: to the books. Right if I run a simulation and
Speaker 3: it says that the Colorado Rockie you should win one
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty games, I'm clearly off. But this same
Speaker 3: model gave me my six win totals this season. That
Speaker 3: was the Twins over seventy three and a half wins.
Speaker 3: They're on pace for eighty. That was the Cardinals over
Speaker 3: sixty eight and a half wins, or excuse me, Twins
Speaker 3: over seventy two and a half wins. Cardinals over sixty
Speaker 3: eight and a half wins. They're on pace for eighty two.
Speaker 3: It gave me the Astros under eighty six and a
Speaker 3: half wins. They're on pace for eighty. Gave me the
Speaker 3: Padres under eighty five and a half wins. They're on
Speaker 3: pace for seventy nine. He gave me the Colorado Rockies
Speaker 3: over fifty two and a half wins, sixty plus wins
Speaker 3: and sixty five plus wins at plus nine to fifty
Speaker 3: on bad MGM, they are on pace for sixty five
Speaker 3: wins and last, but certainly not least, who else who
Speaker 3: I got? I know those are the five and the
Speaker 3: Pirates over seventy six and a half wins. They're on
Speaker 3: pace for eighty two, so the season isn't over yet,
Speaker 3: but I am on pace to go six and all
Speaker 3: on my wind total, so I am trusting the numbers.
Speaker 1: It's all about models, baby. We are going to get
Speaker 1: into your model. We're going to get into the Fangrafts
Speaker 1: playoff projections also where these teams just sit really in
Speaker 1: the course of the wild Card race as it stands
Speaker 1: right now. But before all that, is it time to
Speaker 1: open a pack? Dude, explain to us what we're about
Speaker 1: to do.
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Speaker 3: a fifty dollars pack. We're going to see what we get.
Speaker 3: Podcast P.
Speaker 1: Let's rip it. Let's see what we get.
Speaker 3: I'm in okay, as you can see, here's what you
Speaker 3: see on Arena Club.
Speaker 1: Great graphics, by the way. Let's see. Let's see.
Speaker 3: Let's see Joe Morgan. I'm done for a little Joe
Speaker 3: Morgan card. I mean again, Remember it's a fifty dollars
Speaker 3: pack and I just got Joe Morgan. So I'll stash
Speaker 3: that in my basically online warehouse.
Speaker 1: In your club, yeah, I believe it's called a vault.
Speaker 3: They'll either give me an option to resell it back
Speaker 3: to them, or other people on Arena Club can go
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Speaker 3: pulled a show Heyo Tani card when we did one
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Speaker 3: consolidates everything. And if you want to use promo code
Speaker 3: just Baseball, you'll get twenty percent off your first pack
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Speaker 3: card collectors or even professional card collectors, it's a great
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Speaker 1: Nasty poll Apple, You're ready to hop into these playoff
Speaker 1: teams who could be playoff teams again, we are talking
Speaker 1: about the bubble and teams on the bubble their path
Speaker 1: into the postseason. In the American League, we're going to
Speaker 1: be talking about you know, three to four spots I
Speaker 1: guess that are up for grabs. A division leader in
Speaker 1: the American League West is five hundred right now. The
Speaker 1: Raiders are fifty one and fifty one, so more wide open.
Speaker 1: With the National League, like, the conversation is going to
Speaker 1: pivot to honestly, one seemingly available spot right now, barring
Speaker 1: a skid from the Cubs of the Phillies, it seems
Speaker 1: like there is one spot available for five or six
Speaker 1: teams to contend for. But the al it is a
Speaker 1: wide open conversation.
Speaker 3: And that's why in the American League and the National League,
Speaker 3: the teams on the bubble, and I'm using quotes for
Speaker 3: all those watching on YouTube, they're different. For example, the
Speaker 3: teams like the Pirates and the Cardinals would be far
Speaker 3: ahead of teams in the bubble in the American League.
Speaker 3: And in the American League, we have teams that are
Speaker 3: under five hundred right now, where I have them as
Speaker 3: having a thirty percent chance of making the playoffs. Right,
Speaker 3: So basically, the teams that we're not going to focus
Speaker 3: on heavily but are in the conversation are the Orioles.
Speaker 3: I have them making the playoffs thirty percent of the time,
Speaker 3: the Tigers at twenty nine percent, the Twins at twenty
Speaker 3: four percent, and the Astros at twenty percent. So again,
Speaker 3: all of these teams are under five hundred. But we
Speaker 3: have to remember that the Red Sox at the beginning
Speaker 3: of July I had an eleven percent chance. These teams
Speaker 3: have double even triple that amount of chance. So it
Speaker 3: might seem low, but things can change, right, and when
Speaker 3: you sweep a team, you might go all the way
Speaker 3: up to forty percent. So I would consider all four
Speaker 3: of those teams at least in the conversation. But when
Speaker 3: we're talking about the true bubble teams, I don't really
Speaker 3: want to focus on teams that are four games under
Speaker 3: five hundred, you know.
Speaker 1: And the bubble grouping is going to change over the
Speaker 1: course of the next two to three weeks. Also depending
Speaker 1: on what happened to the deadline here in about a
Speaker 1: week and a half, so like the cast of characters
Speaker 1: will change. We're just talking about the teams that are
Speaker 1: on the postseason bubble as it stands on Friday, July
Speaker 1: twenty fourth. So those are the teams you had on
Speaker 1: the outside looking in. Why can't Baltimore get hot? Why
Speaker 1: can't Houston get hot? We know Houston might buy. They
Speaker 1: could absolutely be in this conversation. Heck, they could be
Speaker 1: in the conversation for the freaking division in a week,
Speaker 1: maybe by the end of the weekend, you know, with
Speaker 1: Texas leading the AL West at fifty one and fifty one,
Speaker 1: in Houston four back at fifty and fifty four. So
Speaker 1: you've got the Tigers that are talking about more likely
Speaker 1: to sell Schooble than not sitting four games back of
Speaker 1: a postseason spot. I think it still holds that twenty
Speaker 1: three of the thirty teams in Major League Baseball are
Speaker 1: within five games of a postseason berth. That's hard to fathom.
Speaker 1: On July twenty fourth.
Speaker 3: Nuts and Podcast p if you could pull up my
Speaker 3: teams on the outside looking in their playoff odds, I
Speaker 3: just want to throw it over to Jack and ask him,
Speaker 3: do you agree with this order because the standings don't
Speaker 3: reflect this exact order right to actually have the best
Speaker 3: record of the four of them, the Tigers, you know,
Speaker 3: the Orioles and the Astros. But my again ranking them Orioles, Tigers, Twins, Astros, Yeah.
Speaker 1: I don't. Personally, I'd have the Astros above the Twins.
Speaker 1: I think the Astros have the American League VP and
Speaker 1: the Twins don't. To be totally honest with you, like
Speaker 1: that's that's my reasoning there. Parades has been awesome over
Speaker 1: the last bit. They've got some other guys that are
Speaker 1: stepping up offensively. Paina is starting to you know, scorch
Speaker 1: the ball as well. So I think the Astros offense
Speaker 1: if they do get minor reinforcements, because it might be
Speaker 1: a soft buy for Dana Brown because he's executing for
Speaker 1: his job, executive ying for his job, working for his job.
Speaker 1: I think I think Houston might have the offensive firepower
Speaker 1: to just get hot and go scorched Earth in August.
Speaker 1: It is funny. I agree with you.
Speaker 3: The Astros do have the MVP and maybe even the
Speaker 3: triple crown winner in Jordan, Alvarez. But what if I
Speaker 3: told you the Twins offense as a higher ops this
Speaker 3: season than the Yeah.
Speaker 1: I believe it, But I think that the Astros are
Speaker 1: a sleeping giant while the Twins have performed to their standard,
Speaker 1: maybe slightly above. We'll see, we'll see. But I'm a
Speaker 1: Twins believer, as you know. Yeah, all right, first bubble
Speaker 1: team that we're going to talk about here in the
Speaker 1: American League, the Boston Red Sox and the Boston Red
Speaker 1: Sox have taken their playoff odds from sub ten percent
Speaker 1: at one point on Fangraphs all the way north of
Speaker 1: fifty percent. The Boston Red Sox as it stands right now,
Speaker 1: have a sixty one point three percent chance to make
Speaker 1: the playoffs according to fangrafs. What say you, We'll talk
Speaker 1: about the model and then we will give reason why
Speaker 1: they get in, reason why they could be held out.
Speaker 3: So I am at sixty eight percent chance for the
Speaker 3: Red Sox to make the playoffs with a projected win
Speaker 3: total of eighty four point two. So basically, of all
Speaker 3: the teams on the bubble on the outside looking in,
Speaker 3: I think the Red Sox are the best of them.
Speaker 3: And you know, just comparing that two fangraphs again, you
Speaker 3: said seventy percent for the Red Sox or no, it's
Speaker 3: closer to sixty one. So I'm I guess much much
Speaker 3: more bullish on the Red Sox than even the Fangrafts
Speaker 3: projections are. And I think the biggest reason why is
Speaker 3: that this rotation is so strong and it sets them
Speaker 3: up to have a scheduled advantage on most days. When
Speaker 3: you consider that Sonny Gray is going up against Dylan
Speaker 3: cs that this weekend, that might be the one game
Speaker 3: where they don't have a schedule advantage. But are we
Speaker 3: so sure? Because Sunny Gray has been pitching, at least
Speaker 3: from an er standpoint, basically exactly the same as Dylan Ceas.
Speaker 3: And you look at teams in the American League, like,
Speaker 3: how many teams have a better five starter than Jake
Speaker 3: Bennett right now? How many teams have a better four
Speaker 3: starter than Peyton Totley right now? So, and I'm also
Speaker 3: factoring in Garrett Crochet coming back at the tail end
Speaker 3: of the season and at least looking pretty good. And
Speaker 3: I also look at the Red Sox bullpen and I
Speaker 3: think it's one of the stronger ones in the American League.
Speaker 3: As well the offense. I'm kind of hit or miss on.
Speaker 3: I actually don't really have Roman Anthony contributing it all.
Speaker 3: Do you think he's going to contribute to this team
Speaker 3: down the stretch.
Speaker 1: He's still experiencing discomfort when swinging a heavier bat, which
Speaker 1: doesn't make much sense to me. I think we have
Speaker 1: no idea what's going on, so naturally I have to
Speaker 1: assume that he's not going to be a part of
Speaker 1: what happens for the Red Sox this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I didn't really know what to do, so I
Speaker 3: kind of just didn't put him in. I've seen those
Speaker 3: get it. But the thing is they don't really need him.
Speaker 3: And again, remember this is all factoring in things before
Speaker 3: the deadline, so I basically have every team making zero moves,
Speaker 3: So I guess obviously they're going to make moves, but
Speaker 3: this is based on kind of their current team and
Speaker 3: their current strength of schedule, and the Red Sox have
Speaker 3: a relatively mediocre strength of schedule down the stretch. Average
Speaker 3: win percentage of opponents is just at five oh one.
Speaker 3: But I think it's really going to be on the
Speaker 3: offense whether they're going to exceed expectations or fall below
Speaker 3: expectations because I think everybody is pretty aligned on this
Speaker 3: rotation being good, especially adding Patrick sandabal Back. I think
Speaker 3: that's going to help. I think everybody's pretty aligned in
Speaker 3: the bullpen being good, especially behind Chapman and Whitlock. With
Speaker 3: Slayton Guerrero, Weisert Moran like, they got plenty of guys.
Speaker 3: But does Jared Durant bounce back at all? Caleb Durbin
Speaker 3: has been on a heater. Does he fall? Does he
Speaker 3: stay the same? Does he get even better? Masatak Yoshida
Speaker 3: has been hitting at an elite level lately, does he continue?
Speaker 3: Contreras a bray You. It's really hard to gauge the
Speaker 3: Red Sox offense right now because they've just been so
Speaker 3: damn hot that there's the inevitable fallof But with how
Speaker 3: good they're pitching is, I think at this point they've
Speaker 3: proven they can win low scoring games, they can win
Speaker 3: one run games, they can win on the margins, which
Speaker 3: again I think will be enough, and they are my
Speaker 3: best bubble team in the American League.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if they get in, it's because they continue to
Speaker 1: get starting pitching like this and they continue to get eighth,
Speaker 1: eighth and ninth work hel like back third work. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna expand it because there are other characters in that
Speaker 1: bullpen that are throwing the ball exceptionally well right now.
Speaker 1: I know Slayton's had some blow ups, but I have
Speaker 1: supreme faith in justin Slayton, Tyrone, Guerrero, Weissert's been really good,
Speaker 1: Geovanni Moran as well, all in front of Whitlock and Chapman,
Speaker 1: who have been nails, both throwing to his sub two
Speaker 1: this year. So if they get in, it's because pitching
Speaker 1: carries them and the offense does enough. If they don't
Speaker 1: get in, I think it's because the offense goes a well.
Speaker 1: To your point, like if they just disappear entirely and
Speaker 1: Wilson Contrara stops standing on his head and Raphaela is
Speaker 1: an eighty WRC plus guy and you'll shoot it, Yosheet,
Speaker 1: it turns into like an eighty five WRC plus guy
Speaker 1: and Willier has a slump. If they all slump at
Speaker 1: the same time, that's what can take them out of
Speaker 1: the conversation. But I think pitching can get them in.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's they have such a high floor
Speaker 3: because of that. But even when you said, of all
Speaker 3: of them slump. At the same time, I think, of course,
Speaker 3: right of everyone in the lineup slumps.
Speaker 1: Sure they're gonna suck.
Speaker 3: But even if a few guys like if Wilson Catreros
Speaker 3: and William Bray you hit a snag, we could be
Speaker 3: in trouble here. We can't forget that. Before this win streak,
Speaker 3: the Red Sox had the worst record in the American League.
Speaker 3: We've seen what it looks like when it's bad, We've
Speaker 3: seen what it looks like when it's elite, And I
Speaker 3: think what could propel the Red Sox is what is
Speaker 3: your medium outcome? What does that look like? And my
Speaker 3: medium outcome for the Red Sox is still the best
Speaker 3: of the bubble teams, and it'll be on them to
Speaker 3: play either to their medium or above in order to
Speaker 3: make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, seems like a possible shoeing as well as the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Guardians, And I think this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: quicker conversation here. The Cleveland Guardians as it stands right now,
Speaker 1: are fifty four and fifty so they're one and a
Speaker 1: half back in the division. The White Sox have as
Speaker 1: many wins fifty four, but they have three fewer losses
Speaker 1: at forty seven, the White Sox, according to Fangrabs, have
Speaker 1: a forty three percent chance of making the postseason. Guardians, meanwhile,
Speaker 1: have a sixty two percent chance and making the postseason,
Speaker 1: So they are the more likely candidate to come out
Speaker 1: of the American League Central. But they fit this bubble
Speaker 1: team conversation because technically, by way of the standings, they
Speaker 1: are behind the Chicago White Sox. How do you see
Speaker 1: this Guardian season shaking up?
Speaker 3: So I want to answer what you were just talking
Speaker 3: about before I even talk about the Guardians, because I
Speaker 3: saw my projections compared to every single Fangrafts model they
Speaker 3: have seven of them. All seven say that the Guardians
Speaker 3: are going to end up winning this division. The betting
Speaker 3: odds say that the Guardians are going to win this division.
Speaker 3: I disagree. I think the White Socks are going to
Speaker 3: win this division. And it has nothing to do with
Speaker 3: the fact that I think the White Sox are going
Speaker 3: to be aggressive at the deadline. Maybe not, you know,
Speaker 3: quote unquote aggressive, more aggressive than the White Sox have
Speaker 3: been in years past. I'm not factoring any of that in.
Speaker 3: I'm just looking at the talent, and I think the
Speaker 3: biggest reason why I guess Model disagrees with Fangrafts is
Speaker 3: I think I'm just more bullish on this White Sox
Speaker 3: offense than they are because I can't really figure out why.
Speaker 3: Maybe they really dislike the starting pitching staff of the
Speaker 3: Chicago White Sox, but.
Speaker 1: Also probably lack of precedent, like I feel like President
Speaker 1: really factors in here. It seems like the last few
Speaker 1: years are taken heavily into account.
Speaker 3: No doubt about it, and it's definitely lagging from preseason
Speaker 3: expectations because we can't forget that the White Sox were
Speaker 3: projected to finish last in this division. Yeah right, so right,
Speaker 3: the Royals were projected to finish second, and look what happens.
Speaker 3: So there's been some flip flopping around, and the Guardians
Speaker 3: were one of the favorites to win this division. So
Speaker 3: I'm sure that's what they're balancing. But I don't know
Speaker 3: how you can't be bullish on this White Sox offense.
Speaker 3: Sam Antonaci is just it's a really good table setter.
Speaker 3: I know he's taken a slight step back lately, but
Speaker 3: it's still a one to twenty four WRC. Plus they
Speaker 3: got Murakami back, They've been able to tread water and
Speaker 3: or play above without him. Now they get him back
Speaker 3: in the lineup. You got Miguel Vargas, who's just frankly
Speaker 3: been one of the better hitters in the American League period.
Speaker 1: You got Coolsa.
Speaker 3: Montgomery, who has hit forty five home runs. It is
Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty seven MLB games. He's one of
Speaker 3: two shortstops with twenty four home runs, tied with CJ.
Speaker 3: Abrams right now for the most in baseball. Ben and
Speaker 3: Tendee has actually not been bad this year. He's got
Speaker 3: a one o one WRC plus. We got an average heating
Speaker 3: for manager Ben Attende start the parade. I like Bradon Montgomery,
Speaker 3: Tristan Peters, who knows, But we got a one twenty
Speaker 3: WRC plus in front of us, Chase Midrath on one
Speaker 3: oh seven.
Speaker 1: What am I missing here?
Speaker 3: And when I compare it to the Guardian's lineup, Jack,
Speaker 3: I know Jose Ramirez is back, and I know that's awesome,
Speaker 3: but have you seen the bottom four in their lineup?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean Patrick Bailey is hitting better than he has been,
Speaker 3: and that's been one of the Guardian's best hitters lately.
Speaker 3: Like I don't know if anybody watched that game against
Speaker 3: the Twins yesterday. I think the Guardians went zero for
Speaker 3: seventeen with runners in scoring position. Now, I like the
Speaker 3: Guardians pitching staff better, but I don't think there's as
Speaker 3: big of a gap between the White Sox offense and
Speaker 3: the Guardians offense, to the Guardians starting rotation to the
Speaker 3: White Sox starting rotation and not only All I'm doing
Speaker 3: is looking at their current numbers this year. I think
Speaker 3: the White Socks are going to be more aggressive at
Speaker 3: the deadline, so I think they're going to win the division,
Speaker 3: and the Guardians are one of the bubble teams what.
Speaker 1: I think, so I will disagree with you there and
Speaker 1: what I think does the White Sox in in terms
Speaker 1: of I guess the disadvantage in relation to the Guardians
Speaker 1: is the bullpen. At the end of the day. Cleveland
Speaker 1: has rinse and repeat, one of, if not the best
Speaker 1: bullpen in baseball every single year, and the White Sox
Speaker 1: are trying a whole bunch of different casts of characters
Speaker 1: every single season. Now, they have some guys, no doubt
Speaker 1: about that, But the Guardians have guys to cover five
Speaker 1: innings if they need five days a week. So it's
Speaker 1: the the Guardians. Like number one starting pitching health has
Speaker 1: been outstanding. The Guardians have had five guys start a
Speaker 1: baseball game for them this year. That is absurd after
Speaker 1: the All Star break have all five starters make every
Speaker 1: single start in the rotation. And then I look at
Speaker 1: the bullpen. So yeah, while I agree with you, it's
Speaker 1: not that stark of a drop off between the white
Speaker 1: sock or between the Guardian rotation of the white sock
Speaker 1: rotation the Guardian's staff and the White Sox staff, I
Speaker 1: think is as stark a drop off as the white
Speaker 1: Sock to Guardian offensive situation.
Speaker 3: So I agree that the Guardian's bullpen is better. I
Speaker 3: agree that the Guardian's bullpen is safer. I agree that
Speaker 3: the Guardians bullpen is more proven, I don't agree that
Speaker 3: it's that much better. And here's why. At this point,
Speaker 3: what does Grant Taylor have to prove to tell everyone
Speaker 3: he's one of the better relievers in the American League.
Speaker 3: This guy's been fantastic this year, striking out close to
Speaker 3: thirteen per nine and he's got a two six to
Speaker 3: three era. Sean Newcomb now has just been solid for
Speaker 3: a while. He's got a two four to one. Brian
Speaker 3: Hudson has had a great year two h eight ERA,
Speaker 3: and Jordan Hicks has really found a home in this
Speaker 3: White Sox bullpen. He's pitching to an ERA at three
Speaker 3: and that's with Sir Anthony Dominguez having a bad year
Speaker 3: at a four five zero er. But he's a guy
Speaker 3: who you, I guess he's been around the block. There's
Speaker 3: some trust still there for at least maybe a good
Speaker 3: stretch down the down until the end of the season.
Speaker 3: So I agree with you, Guardian's bullpen is better. The
Speaker 3: gap just isn't that big.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I guess we'll agree to disagree there. I
Speaker 1: do think that volatility is on the Guardian's side. I
Speaker 1: think that they are far more even than the White Sox,
Speaker 1: and the White Sox could have some of those guys
Speaker 1: blip and the Guardians have shown us four to five
Speaker 1: years in recent history of them being awesome from game
Speaker 1: one to Game one sixty two. But this is a
Speaker 1: Guardian conversation that if the Guardians get in, why if
Speaker 1: the Guardians don't get in why.
Speaker 3: So I also want to be clear to all my
Speaker 3: Guardians fans out there. We got Colin in the YouTube chat,
Speaker 3: Peter's picking everyone in the ale Cedral except Cleveland this year.
Speaker 3: How are her heroes fall? I'm sorry because I have
Speaker 3: been such a Guardian's truth and for such a long
Speaker 3: time here I just as they get new information, I change.
Speaker 3: But at the same time, I still have the Guardians
Speaker 3: making the playoffs. I give them a fifty nine percent
Speaker 3: chance of making the playoffs. Eighty three wins. I think
Speaker 3: it's more likely than not that this team is playing
Speaker 3: in October. So I have the White Sox for example,
Speaker 3: I think i'd have to go check. But at eighty
Speaker 3: three point six wins, so it's really really close. And again,
Speaker 3: I still think the Guardians are a pretty solid team
Speaker 3: with Cleveland. Like I hate to do this, Jack, but
Speaker 3: isn't it kind of whether they have magic or not? Yeah,
Speaker 3: because here's the thing about the Guardians. The Guardians forever
Speaker 3: have played above their talent they have Yeah, right, we
Speaker 3: call it guardball for a reason. That speaks to the
Speaker 3: Guardians organization that they put guys in spots to succeed.
Speaker 3: And I've talked about this with Milwaukee, We've talked about
Speaker 3: this with Tampa. It's like some teams are just better
Speaker 3: at playing the game of baseball than others. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 3: we can't forget. The Guardians had a seventy nine and
Speaker 3: a half win total to open the season. The Brewers
Speaker 3: were at eighty four and a half. That's what these
Speaker 3: models look at on a pure talent basis, but the
Speaker 3: Guardians routinely play above that. So that's what I think
Speaker 3: is going to separate the Guardians, Because on paper, Guardians
Speaker 3: might not have as good of a team as like
Speaker 3: the Orioles, but they're way better at playing baseball than
Speaker 3: the Oriols. They're better with rudders at scoring position, they're
Speaker 3: better at doing the little things. Overall, they have better pitching.
Speaker 3: So I really think it comes down to that. I
Speaker 3: know it's simple, and I know it's kind of a
Speaker 3: cop out, but I believe it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to take it a step further. I
Speaker 1: think the Guardians get in if the record in one
Speaker 1: and two run games is over five hundre, right. I
Speaker 1: think they don't get in if their record and one
Speaker 1: and two run games is under five hundred.
Speaker 3: They're gonna play a lot of those games because the
Speaker 3: offense just isn't very powerful, so they don't have those
Speaker 3: bats that can change the game with one swing really
Speaker 3: outside of Jose Ramirez who just got back, but he
Speaker 3: also was coming back from a hamd eate injury, which
Speaker 3: historically hurts batter's power.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So I think that they are going to play
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of four to three games and three
Speaker 1: to two games and three to one games. So at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, if they win more of
Speaker 1: those than they don't, then they're in. And that, my friends,
Speaker 1: is the laziest sentence ever uttered as it pertains to
Speaker 1: a bubble team.
Speaker 3: From our comments, we still love you, Peter, and I
Speaker 3: love you too, And I think the Guardians are going
Speaker 3: to make it in I guess, I really. I'm curious
Speaker 3: what for the Guardians playoff chances. How does Peter's model
Speaker 3: account for Lebron Spring Cleveland, It's effect on Citi's bra
Speaker 3: I don't think that'll have any certain effect.
Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's a revenge tour for
Speaker 1: the city of Cleveland right now.
Speaker 3: I do wonder what Guardians fans think because are we
Speaker 3: just talking out of our ass?
Speaker 1: Are we going too simple?
Speaker 3: Because that's truly what I feel about the Guardians. I
Speaker 3: think it's going to be about are you winning on
Speaker 3: the margins?
Speaker 1: I think every Guardians fan will tell you that they
Speaker 1: win games three to one. That's just how they win exactly.
Speaker 3: And for example, just yesterday, I was just watching they
Speaker 3: lost three to one. Right it was an extra innings
Speaker 3: game where they weren't hitting with runners in scoring position
Speaker 3: a normal Cleveland Guardians win. They get that big hit
Speaker 3: and they win that game. And that's what makes them
Speaker 3: such a tough team to face, because if you play
Speaker 3: them in close games, they're really really good, historically good
Speaker 3: at winning those games. I think it will come down
Speaker 3: to that form.
Speaker 1: All right. The Texas Rangers the next team that we're
Speaker 1: going to talk about, and as it stands right now,
Speaker 1: the Rangers are the division leader in an even five
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty one fifty one. According to Fangrafts, the
Speaker 1: Texas Rangers have a forty nine point five percent chance
Speaker 1: to make the postseason. That is, folks, a toss SEP.
Speaker 1: What say you, Peter Rapple?
Speaker 3: I think they do and I think they win the
Speaker 3: division podcast P would you mind pulling up my projections
Speaker 3: on the Rangers. I have them finishing with about eighty
Speaker 3: three wins just to tick short at eighty two point
Speaker 3: eight and my playoff projection is sixty one percent. And
Speaker 3: this series is going to be a massive one. This weekend,
Speaker 3: the Mariners and the Rangers play a four game set
Speaker 3: starting Tonight ending on Monday at Globalife Field in Texas,
Speaker 3: Rangers versus Mariners. And then right after that series, the
Speaker 3: Mariners go and play the Dodgers in LA and the
Speaker 3: Rangers go to play the Rays in Tampa. And you
Speaker 3: might say, well, the Mariners have a harder one against
Speaker 3: the Daughters, of course, but I have you seen Tampa
Speaker 3: in Tampa. They're unbeatable, the best team at home this year.
Speaker 3: So both teams have really tough series after So this
Speaker 3: could be a separating series here. If the Rangers win
Speaker 3: three out of fourth, the Rangers went four to fourth,
Speaker 3: the Mariner's win four out of fourth, the Mariners went
Speaker 3: three out of four, you can start to kind of
Speaker 3: command this division. I think the Rangers are going to
Speaker 3: win this series this weekend. I just don't really trust
Speaker 3: the Mariners on the road this season. But here's the point,
Speaker 3: let's go to the Rangers with Langford back. I think
Speaker 3: that this offense is still being slept on a little
Speaker 3: bit because I think when you think of the Rangers,
Speaker 3: you think pitching and just a team that refuses to
Speaker 3: hit and largely like I get it right. The Rangers
Speaker 3: are sixteenth in ops. It hasn't been great, but they've
Speaker 3: missed Cory Seger for a while. They've missed why At
Speaker 3: Langford for a while. But Corey Seeger will eventually return.
Speaker 3: But even if he doesn't, I kind of like this offense.
Speaker 3: Jack Peterson, Langford, Josh Young and Brandon Emo, Jake Berger,
Speaker 3: Ezekiel Duran. You've thrown Nicky Lopez and Justin Fosku in there.
Speaker 3: All of those guys have WRC plus is over one hundred,
Speaker 3: and I don't want to like, I almost feel like
Speaker 3: we should just blend the Mariners and Rangers here.
Speaker 1: Don't you think we can? Yeah, so let's let's bring
Speaker 1: the Mariners into this conversation as well. So the Seattle Mariners,
Speaker 1: as it stands right now, they are a game under
Speaker 1: five hundreds, so they're a half game back in the division.
Speaker 1: They're fifty one and fifty two, and their playoff odds,
Speaker 1: according to Fangrafs, are sixty nine percent. Fangrafs loves Seattle
Speaker 1: and they like Texas. I think that's the fair way
Speaker 1: to put it.
Speaker 3: So I have the Mariners making the playoffs fifty four
Speaker 3: point seven percent, but of course I have the Rangers
Speaker 3: winning the division. And you're probably wondering why all these
Speaker 3: teams can have above a fifty percent chance of making
Speaker 3: the playoffs when there's only three spots and we've already
Speaker 3: talked about four teams and we haven't even talked about
Speaker 3: a team like the Rays or the Yankees, whoever ends
Speaker 3: up winning the American League East, Because think about it,
Speaker 3: they're all kind of coin flips. So that's how you
Speaker 3: can get to a certain projection. Is It's not like
Speaker 3: if the marin have a fifty four percent chance, that
Speaker 3: means the Guardians have a forty six percent chance. It's
Speaker 3: not really like that. So it's it's it's about balancing
Speaker 3: all of it. It's very complicated. We're not going to
Speaker 3: get into it right now. But what is important though,
Speaker 3: is I do think that the Rangers are the better team,
Speaker 3: and I think it comes down to I'm not buying
Speaker 3: this Mariners offense. I also am worried about a lot
Speaker 3: of these Mariners starting pitchers on the road. I mean,
Speaker 3: Brian MOUs got An ERA over four and an ERA
Speaker 3: below three at home. Why Because he's just getting crushed
Speaker 3: on the road. A lot of these guys are, and
Speaker 3: this Mariner's bullpen is not quite as scary as it
Speaker 3: previously was. And with cal having the downright horrible season
Speaker 3: that he's having, Juli Rodriguez has not had this bursting
Speaker 3: second half like we're used to, and he's been banged
Speaker 3: up as well. It's not as daunting of an offense either.
Speaker 3: I just don't think that they have that super high
Speaker 3: floor like they used to because of how good the
Speaker 3: starting rotation was, because of how good the bullpen was,
Speaker 3: I think it's relatively weaker than a year's past.
Speaker 1: I will give you the if Seattle gets in, if
Speaker 1: they don't get in right now, because I think it
Speaker 1: kind of like lays the groundwork for the Ranger take.
Speaker 1: For me, if Seattle gets in, it's because Jerry Depoto
Speaker 1: did exactly what he needed to do at the deadline. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and that's been an impact. Yeah. Deadline's humongous for Seattle.
Speaker 1: He gets several impact bats, at least one right handed
Speaker 1: impact bat, probably two right handed impact bats, and they
Speaker 1: also go and get one more legit reliever because to
Speaker 1: your point, the Seattle bullpen is not as daunting as
Speaker 1: it was last year. Now a brash injury for the
Speaker 1: majority of the season has certainly impacted that. But right
Speaker 1: now you're looking at a big four of Muno's spire
Speaker 1: for Rare and Bizarto, and then after that it's just
Speaker 1: kind of a white flag bullpen right now, Like those
Speaker 1: are their advantage guys, and you can only cover twelve
Speaker 1: outs at this point, Seattle. Great note from Payden here,
Speaker 1: they're pitching staff, not just their rotation, their whole pitching staff.
Speaker 1: A three to one five ERA at T Mobile Park
Speaker 1: and an ERA over four away from T Mobile Park.
Speaker 1: They're seven over at home, they're eight under on the road,
Speaker 1: so they need to get better. I think they need
Speaker 1: one more iron in the fire in the bullpen, and
Speaker 1: I think they need two more irons in the fire offensively.
Speaker 1: Now at full health, this lineup does look pretty good,
Speaker 1: but it looks very left hand. So they need to
Speaker 1: figure out a way to spell Colt Emerson, Like, I
Speaker 1: know he's your top prospect. I know he's got ninety
Speaker 1: million dollars in the bank in the over the course
Speaker 1: of eight years, but at the end of the day.
Speaker 1: He's just not good enough right now, especially in left
Speaker 1: on left matchups. They've got a couple of guys that
Speaker 1: are just not good enough in left on left matchups.
Speaker 1: And the ref Snyder signing being brutal is brutal, Like
Speaker 1: that is a huge anvil here because they felt like
Speaker 1: they grabbed a short platoon masher and it turns out
Speaker 1: he's just been stinking up the joint this year. So
Speaker 1: I think Seattle gets in because of a great deadline.
Speaker 1: It's left out because of an underwhelming deadline. Texas. I
Speaker 1: think they're going to be very quiet. I think they
Speaker 1: get in because they keep pitching, and Langford is Langford,
Speaker 1: and they've got other guys that you know, kind of
Speaker 1: pop offensively. If they don't get in, it's because that
Speaker 1: offense just kind of has collective anemia.
Speaker 3: So I want to give you a scenario. Let's say
Speaker 3: the Rangers take three or four from the Mariners. Okay,
Speaker 3: Mariner or Rangers get a couple of games up on
Speaker 3: them in the division, which they already have a lead in, yep.
Speaker 3: And then let's say the Rangers lose two out of
Speaker 3: three to the Rays. The Mariners lose two out of
Speaker 3: three to the Dodgers. So the Mariners up until the deadline,
Speaker 3: you just lose three or four to your division rival. No,
Speaker 3: and you're five under going into the deadline. Yeah, how
Speaker 3: sure are we that Jerry Depoto, a guy who likes
Speaker 3: to play it carefully, is now going to go full
Speaker 3: board at this deadline?
Speaker 1: To be honest, I don't think I've ever heard Jerry
Speaker 1: Depoto and playing it carefully in the same sentence. I
Speaker 1: don't think he does that at all. You think that
Speaker 1: Depoto is the closest thing.
Speaker 3: We've got to preller interesting, I don't think he plays
Speaker 3: it carefully whatsoever.
Speaker 1: I think if he's within striking distance based on the
Speaker 1: way that these pitching, the way that the rotation service
Speaker 1: is playing out, like you only have some more many
Speaker 1: years of Logan Gilbert, you only have a couple more
Speaker 1: many years at George Kirby, Like you're running out of
Speaker 1: time with this best rotation in baseball, quote unquote, so
Speaker 1: it's time to capitalize. No, I agree with you.
Speaker 3: I just don't know if he's going to see it
Speaker 3: like that, Like I don't. I guess I don't view
Speaker 3: Depoto as like a prelleresque type.
Speaker 1: Of guy interesting. I totally do. I view him as
Speaker 1: the preller of the American League.
Speaker 3: I think that he's you know, he's brought in guys
Speaker 3: like Josh Naylor, and he's brought in guys like Randy
Speaker 3: Rose Arena, and he's made some deadu.
Speaker 1: Hadeo Suarez at the deadline last year.
Speaker 3: Chris Young has also been sneaky aggressive too, like they
Speaker 3: were the team to trade for Mackenzie Gore this offseason,
Speaker 3: Like they have made some moves that kind of shock everyone.
Speaker 3: Like I just I don't view the Mariners deadline being
Speaker 3: all that different from the Rangers deadline. But again we'll
Speaker 3: see right again, the Mariners could win three out of four,
Speaker 3: and then they could go beat the Dodgers. Then they
Speaker 3: could get hot and the Rangers could fall. Like I guess,
Speaker 3: I'm more just leaning towards my own projections, but it
Speaker 3: could easily go the opposite direction. And that's why this
Speaker 3: series this weekend, I will be watching all four games
Speaker 3: so closely. I think this is this series to watch
Speaker 3: this weekend, even though Yankees, Phillies, you got the Dodgers, Like,
Speaker 3: there are some great series this weekend. We're gonna do
Speaker 3: a weekend preview later. But this this these four whoa
Speaker 3: we got almost playoffs in July.
Speaker 1: I can't wait. It's gonna be awesome. All right, we're
Speaker 1: gonna pivot the conversation of the National League here in
Speaker 1: a moment. But before that, quick word from our friends
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Speaker 1: All right, time to talk about the National League. Here.
Speaker 1: You have one team that's on the outside looking in
Speaker 1: right now, and it's kind of a feature story on
Speaker 1: the San Diego Padres, who as it stands right now,
Speaker 1: San Diego heralds a record of fifty and fifty three.
Speaker 1: They're three hunderd five hundred. They are four back of
Speaker 1: the final wildcard spot in the National League. They have
Speaker 1: dropped two in a row. They've dropped six out of ten,
Speaker 1: the San Diego Padres and aj Preller. You think that
Speaker 1: they are toast, Yes, I have.
Speaker 3: Them making the playoffs six percent of the time. What
Speaker 3: does Fangrafs have them at.
Speaker 1: Fangrafs has San Diego at seven point three percent.
Speaker 3: So I'm a little bit lower than they are. But
Speaker 3: both of us are basically saying that this team just
Speaker 3: shouldn't add. You say they're fifty and fifty three, they
Speaker 3: are fifty and fifty three. They're lucky to be fifty
Speaker 3: and fifty three. They really are when you look at
Speaker 3: run differential, when you look at expected win loss record,
Speaker 3: when you watch them on TV. We've talked about the
Speaker 3: Fangrafts projections, We've talked about expected win loss and all
Speaker 3: these fancy numbers. Watch them, Watch them for a game.
Speaker 3: This team can't hit. I mean, lately, I have been
Speaker 3: impressed with Fernando Tacis junior. He's looking a lot like
Speaker 3: the Tatis junior of old Jackson. Merril's even put some
Speaker 3: better swings on the ball. Manny Machado is actually on
Speaker 3: pace to hit thirty home runs, But in reality, ty
Speaker 3: Franz has been the best hitter on this team this season.
Speaker 3: That's what we're looking at, and this rotation is just
Speaker 3: pretty barren right now. You know, we love we love
Speaker 3: our guy, Walker Buehler, you know, but they have JP Sears,
Speaker 3: it's Herman Marquez, it's Griffin Canning with an opener.
Speaker 1: It's tough right now.
Speaker 3: And then the bullpen is obviously awesome, But the bullpen
Speaker 3: doesn't matter as much when you're already down in the
Speaker 3: game and the offense has only put up one run
Speaker 3: and your starter is given up three or four. And again,
Speaker 3: I'll go back to the Hembo stat. This team has
Speaker 3: won a lot of one run games, a lot of
Speaker 3: come from behind wins this season, which generally it's hard
Speaker 3: to project that moving forward. Just looking at what they've
Speaker 3: done this year, the Padres have no business stiffing the playoffs.
Speaker 3: And it's funny to see that Preller is still might bot.
Speaker 3: I disagree. I don't think he should and I think
Speaker 3: he should Listen to a lot of Padres fans out there,
Speaker 3: a lot of the Padres fans I'm seeing on social media,
Speaker 3: a lot of reporters people do great work covering the team,
Speaker 3: are like, don't do it. Trade expiring deals. We need
Speaker 3: to replenish this farm system. Have you seen what this
Speaker 3: team looks like. I agree with them who watch I mean,
Speaker 3: I watch a lot of baseball in general, but they're
Speaker 3: watching every game, all nine innings, and they're saying the
Speaker 3: same thing. Is what Fang says, what my model says,
Speaker 3: and what my brain says, which is that this team
Speaker 3: is a full tier below the teams were about to
Speaker 3: talk about.
Speaker 1: So the one counter is the offense is finally starting
Speaker 1: to get going. In nineteen games in July. Their seven
Speaker 1: to seventy seven ohps is sixth in baseball and they
Speaker 1: have twenty one stolen basis, which is one of the
Speaker 1: top marks in Major League Baseball. So San Diego is
Speaker 1: starting to get hot offensively at the right time. But
Speaker 1: to your point about the rotation, they're a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of weaknesses. But for the first two to three months
Speaker 1: of the year, we were just saying this team can't hit,
Speaker 1: this team can't hit, and then all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: they're starting to hit a little.
Speaker 3: Bit, but it's not resulting into wins. They're not gaining
Speaker 3: ground in any way. So as the offense starts to
Speaker 3: not look anemic, the starting pitching staff is starting to
Speaker 3: fall apart. They can't sink. So, yes, they've been better
Speaker 3: than futured lately on offense, I don't think it's enough,
Speaker 3: especially because again, the the teams in the National League
Speaker 3: are just simply better. If the Padres were in the
Speaker 3: American League, we might be having a different discussion. There's
Speaker 3: a lot of teams in the American League that if
Speaker 3: they were in the National League, we'd be having a
Speaker 3: different discussion. Sure, but we're talking about their competition. The Padres,
Speaker 3: don't sniff. I think the teams that we're about to
Speaker 3: talk about that are truly on the bubble. Do you agree, Like,
Speaker 3: I'm at six percent, fangrafts at seven percent. You didn't
Speaker 3: run a model, But like, where are you with the Padres?
Speaker 3: Like do you still when you hear those numbers, are
Speaker 3: you shocked by that or do you think, yeah, that's
Speaker 3: probably where they are.
Speaker 1: I'm like, no, I'm not shocked by it. But at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, like they still have Mason
Speaker 1: Miller employed to throw the ninth inning, they still have
Speaker 1: Moro Hone. I know that there have been some bullpen injuries,
Speaker 1: and they still have Fernando Tatis Junior starting to catch fire,
Speaker 1: and they still have Machado and Bogarts and Meryl. They
Speaker 1: have so many sleeping giants in this lineup. Man like
Speaker 1: Bogarts could have a two homer night over the weekend,
Speaker 1: and I wouldn't be supprise because it's Sander Bogarts and
Speaker 1: he's a two hundred and ninety million dollars player. Was
Speaker 1: he deserving a two ninety I don't know. I don't
Speaker 1: think so. Not a lot of people think so. But
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, he played to the
Speaker 1: place where a team gave him two hundred and ninety
Speaker 1: million dollars. So there's enough here for them to catch fire.
Speaker 1: And there's a lot of baseball left, Like there's fifty
Speaker 1: nine games left for the majority of these teams. So
Speaker 1: that's like the biggest thing that jumps out to me.
Speaker 1: But oh well, we're gonna get to the teams that
Speaker 1: are actually on the bubble. But before that, really exciting
Speaker 1: opportunity presented with our friends at LIDS, Colson Montgomery, the
Speaker 1: star shortstop for the Chicago White Sox, we are going
Speaker 1: to be having a meet and greet because of the
Speaker 1: Tops Chrome release. It's going to be tomorrow here July
Speaker 1: twenty fifth, it's going to be at the Lidds at
Speaker 1: water Tower place, So eight thirty five North Michigan Avenue
Speaker 1: in Chicago tomorrow at eleven am Central time at the
Speaker 1: Lids at water Tower. It's a meet and greet to
Speaker 1: celebrate the release of Tops Chrome with White Sox star
Speaker 1: shortstop Cold Montgomery. So if you are in the Chicago
Speaker 1: area and want to meet one of the better young
Speaker 1: shortstops in Major League Baseball and rip up some great
Speaker 1: cards with our friends at Lydd's, head on over the
Speaker 1: Lids at water Tower again, eight thirty five North Michigan
Speaker 1: Avenue in Chicago. Really exciting stuff. Yeah, I'll be there.
Speaker 1: Can come me.
Speaker 3: Colson rip Tops Chrome in store for a chance to
Speaker 3: win a free jersey through their Rip to Rep program.
Speaker 3: So it's going to be a lot of fun. I'll
Speaker 3: be doing a short interview with them with our guy
Speaker 3: Elijah Evans as well. So yeah, if you want to
Speaker 3: come by, say what's up, meet Colson Montgomery. It's gonna
Speaker 3: be really fun again at the LYDDS the water Tower
Speaker 3: in Chicago, eleven am Central on Saturday, July twenty fifth.
Speaker 1: Love it all right, let's get to the NL bubble
Speaker 1: teams right now, and the first one that you have
Speaker 1: listed here is the Marlins. I will defer to you
Speaker 1: for a lot of this stuff, but the Miami Marlins
Speaker 1: right now, they currently sit a game over five hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty two and fifty one. They're eight and a
Speaker 1: half back in the division. Fangrafs has them making the
Speaker 1: playoffs at a fourteen point five percent chance, and they
Speaker 1: sit two back of the n wild card picture. The
Speaker 1: hot Arizona Diamondbacks, what say you.
Speaker 3: I'm slightly lower at thirteen percent. But it's funny though,
Speaker 3: because my win total projection for them is like eighty
Speaker 3: point one, which is slightly higher than a team like
Speaker 3: the Orioles, who have a thirty percent chance of making
Speaker 3: in the American League, You know what I mean, They're
Speaker 3: kind of a victim of the league that they play
Speaker 3: in because there's so many other good teams. I mean,
Speaker 3: we're gonna talk about the Nats, We're gonna talk about
Speaker 3: the Pirates, the Cardinals, and the d Backs, and there's
Speaker 3: only so many spots, especially because there's no guarantees in baseball.
Speaker 3: Clearly we know this, but a lot of teams are
Speaker 3: fighting in the American League for the second and third
Speaker 3: wild card spot. The Marlins and all the other teams
Speaker 3: that we're going to talk about are kind of fighting
Speaker 3: for only one spot because the Cubs and the Phillies
Speaker 3: are just so damn good. So while you see thirteen percent,
Speaker 3: I actually think they're on a very similar talent level
Speaker 3: as like a team like the Orioles, where they're going
Speaker 3: to finish close to five hundred.
Speaker 1: And I think what.
Speaker 3: My model is a little bit nervous about is, you
Speaker 3: know how you kind of mentioned with the White Sox
Speaker 3: where it's a lot of guys that are having good
Speaker 3: seasons in the bullpen, but they haven't done it before,
Speaker 3: Like there isn't that kind of there hasn't been that
Speaker 3: consistency year over year. It's like a lot of guys
Speaker 3: that have come up and have had good seasons.
Speaker 1: I think the.
Speaker 3: Model is factoring some of that in a little bit
Speaker 3: for a lot of these guys. And the rotation right
Speaker 3: now with Max Meyer getting hurt, that's just a tough
Speaker 3: one because after Sandy and you know, I love Yuri,
Speaker 3: but Ryan Gusto, Jansen, Junkin, Tyler Phillips, you're likely at
Speaker 3: a scheduled disadvantage for a lot of it. However, I
Speaker 3: really like that this offense. I mean, Otto and Stowers
Speaker 3: has been hitting better. Roberto Hernandez has been a really
Speaker 3: good bat against left handed pitching. I still think Xavier
Speaker 3: Edwards is solid. I think Liam Hicks is solid. Griffin Conine,
Speaker 3: you know, our friend has had an awesome year. He's
Speaker 3: sitting with a one forty two WRC plus. I think
Speaker 3: Jacob Marcy is better than the seventy three WRC plus
Speaker 3: he's shown. And I like Joe Max So I really
Speaker 3: like this offense. But I think the Max Meyer injury
Speaker 3: hurts the depth from a starting rotation standpoint scares me
Speaker 3: a little bit. And I think the bullpen is hit
Speaker 3: or miss. It could be better than I think, it
Speaker 3: could be worse than.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 3: It's just hard to grade them in general. So among
Speaker 3: the teams that we're going to talk about, they're not last.
Speaker 3: We're going to talk about the Nationals. I have the
Speaker 3: Marlins ahead of the Nationals, but I just don't think
Speaker 3: they're quite as strong as the Cardinals and the Pirates.
Speaker 1: So I will give you a if the Marlins get in,
Speaker 1: this is why take and then we'll push on. I
Speaker 1: guess we're waiting like a official diagnosis and severity on Meyer.
Speaker 1: We just know he's on the IL right now. What
Speaker 1: does that look like? Does that mean, you know, a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Does it mean he's back next week.
Speaker 1: Does it mean he's gone for an extended period of time.
Speaker 1: We don't know yet, so I guess he's been. So
Speaker 1: whenever he hits the IL, it's a huge loss if
Speaker 1: you haven't been tapped into what Uri Peiz is doing
Speaker 1: as of late. This is the best version of Uri
Speaker 1: that we've ever seen. He is on the attack. I
Speaker 1: think Uri continuing to throw like a frontline guy certainly helps.
Speaker 1: And I think when John King and Bender come back,
Speaker 1: this is a legit bullpen and the stuff in that
Speaker 1: bullpen is absolutely insane. I think the offense continues to
Speaker 1: hold this heat up that they experienced, like they were
Speaker 1: scorching hot from June first to like July tenth, but
Speaker 1: after that they tapered off for like a week. But
Speaker 1: then in Houston they did get going a little bit offensively.
Speaker 1: They were just three tough losses in Houston. I think
Speaker 1: if this if this offense pulses up again as a
Speaker 1: collective unit and they're built on pitching, which they have
Speaker 1: been for the last handful of years. That's how they
Speaker 1: get in here, so excited to do it document that
Speaker 1: as they continue to push. Let's go to the Washington
Speaker 1: Nationals here, and the Nats currently sit, I believe, tied
Speaker 1: with the Marlins here in the National League East right now.
Speaker 1: Washington currently sits at fifty two and fifty one, so
Speaker 1: they again are eight and a half back of the
Speaker 1: division and Fangrafts gives them a seven percent chance of
Speaker 1: making the postseason.
Speaker 3: What say you, Yeah, I'm at seven point one with
Speaker 3: the Nationals with a projected win total of seventy eight
Speaker 3: point seven, and I have absolutely zero problems with this offense.
Speaker 3: I think it's a really fun, good offense, really entertaining
Speaker 3: to watch.
Speaker 1: Here's my issue.
Speaker 3: Are they truly the second best team in baseball when
Speaker 3: it comes to ops for the rest of the season.
Speaker 3: I think it's just going to be hard to maintain.
Speaker 3: When you got Abrams and you got Garcia and you
Speaker 3: got James Wood, really anything can happen. But outside of
Speaker 3: kiber Luiz, those are your three or four guys who
Speaker 3: have a WRC plus above one. Hundred right, Like when
Speaker 3: you look at the bench, Mead Schaparro and Harry Ford,
Speaker 3: they have all been hitting well. It's like guys who
Speaker 3: I think have hit hot spurts. But as a total offense,
Speaker 3: I still think they're going to be top ten. I
Speaker 3: really love this offense. I just don't think they're going
Speaker 3: to be second, which again I think is going to hurt,
Speaker 3: especially if the bullpen continues to blow games as one
Speaker 3: of the worst bullpens in Major League Baseball and they
Speaker 3: struggle to find a really good pitcher outside of Cavali
Speaker 3: and Foster Griffin at the top of the rotation. So
Speaker 3: I think there's just a big bottom out potential with
Speaker 3: this team, and that's why I think I'm lower on
Speaker 3: them than all of the rest. Like the Marlins, to me,
Speaker 3: feel like they just have a higher floor. Like when
Speaker 3: the Marlins play bad and the Nationals play bad, the
Speaker 3: Nationals play a lot worse. When both teams are playing well,
Speaker 3: I don't think the gap is all that different. So
Speaker 3: it's more of a bottom out projection for the Nationals
Speaker 3: that has a much higher possibility than the other teams.
Speaker 1: And we know that Washington isn't going to buy like
Speaker 1: they're not going to push chips in, so you know, like,
Speaker 1: do they go and get low cost relievers in hopes
Speaker 1: of doing this? Maybe. I don't think it's so locked
Speaker 1: that they're just going to try scouring the DFA market.
Speaker 1: I don't think it makes much sense to do it.
Speaker 1: If they get in, it's because they win a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of games ten eight. If they don't get in,
Speaker 1: it's because they lose a whole bunch of games ten eight.
Speaker 1: To be totally honest with you, this offense can hit
Speaker 1: their way into the conversation. They can hit their way
Speaker 1: to a handful of more wins. It's just over the
Speaker 1: course of sixty games, can they be the last one
Speaker 1: standing out of five or six teams that are in
Speaker 1: contention for one wildcard spot? I don't think the pitching
Speaker 1: is built to do that for Washington.
Speaker 3: I will say, though, this has been such a successful
Speaker 3: season for this team. I mean, they were pretty successful
Speaker 3: with the second They were projected to finish with the
Speaker 3: second worst record at the beginning of the season to
Speaker 3: the Colorado Rockies. I think I got a big take wrong.
Speaker 3: I said they would finish with the worst record in
Speaker 3: Major League Baseball, I'm pretty sure I said that at
Speaker 3: the beginning of the year.
Speaker 1: I was wrong.
Speaker 3: This team has totally outdone my expectations. They've outdone a
Speaker 3: lot of people's expectations. However, they still have that dark
Speaker 3: cloud hanging over them, and that is the second half
Speaker 3: of the season. We saw what happened to them last year.
Speaker 3: In the second half of the season, every single hitter
Speaker 3: fell off the face of the earth. McKenzie gore. I
Speaker 3: think you put it up an era at twelve. Obviously,
Speaker 3: McKenzie gore is now a ranger, so that's what they
Speaker 3: might have to deal with.
Speaker 1: But just overall, this.
Speaker 3: Team completely fell off. I don't think they're going to
Speaker 3: do that this year, but I am saying that it's
Speaker 3: not out of the rama possibility.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, next team that we got to talk
Speaker 1: about here, the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'll make this very easy.
Speaker 1: The Pirates as it stands right now, Pittsburgh fifty three
Speaker 1: and fifty three over There were eleven and a half
Speaker 1: back in the central But Fangrafts does give them a
Speaker 1: forty five point six percent chance of making it to
Speaker 1: the postseason, and the Pirates currently set a game out
Speaker 1: at a final wildcard spot right behind the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: They can slug their way to the dance, point blank
Speaker 1: in period. If they get in, it's because this Marly
Speaker 1: Valdez continues to do the things that he has been
Speaker 1: doing and they continue to hit the ball out of
Speaker 1: the ballpark. If they don't get in, it's because Ben
Speaker 1: Charrington didn't do enough for the bullpen at the deadline.
Speaker 1: That bullpen is not good. They just dfa Dennis Santana.
Speaker 1: That's crazy coming into this year thinking that they were
Speaker 1: going to DFA Santana before the deadline and they would
Speaker 1: still be in contention. But that's where we sit, no
Speaker 1: doubt about it.
Speaker 3: They just traded for Ron Maronaccio and then dfa Dennis Santana.
Speaker 3: That's wild to me. So of the five teams here,
Speaker 3: the Marlins, the Nats, the Pirates, the Cardinals, and the
Speaker 3: d Backs. We're going to talk about the Cardinals and
Speaker 3: the d Backs in a second. I have the Pirates
Speaker 3: with the highest win total by point one over the
Speaker 3: d Backs, and then right there is the Cardinals. And
Speaker 3: again the Marlins are two wins behind the Cardinals, so
Speaker 3: it's really not that big of a gap. But I've
Speaker 3: just been continually pressed with this Pirates team because what
Speaker 3: we're what were we worried about going into the season, Jack,
Speaker 3: that this defense was going to be a massive problem,
Speaker 3: the starting pitching was going to be great, the bullpen
Speaker 3: was going to be horrible, and that the offense was
Speaker 3: going to be mediocre. The offense has been much better
Speaker 3: than mediocre. And again, it has been without Connor Griffin,
Speaker 3: it's been without O'Neill Cruise, it's been without Spencer Horrowitz.
Speaker 3: Like all of these guys have missed time. When all
Speaker 3: of them come back, this is a really good offense.
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, it is like they could add one more
Speaker 3: bat and now Ezmerline Valdez has certainly been holding it
Speaker 3: up here, but as they get back reinforcements, they can
Speaker 3: replace at least some of that production from Valdez. And
Speaker 3: have you been watching Bubba Chandler lately? Like I know
Speaker 3: you just talked about Yuri. Bubba hasn't been that good,
Speaker 3: but he's at least improving. Mitch Keller just tossed six
Speaker 3: against my Yankees. That'll probably be his best start of
Speaker 3: the season. But and Braxton Ashcroft got crushed for six earned. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I think that'll be his worst start of the season.
Speaker 3: Jared Jones lately, dear God, the guys that are ninety
Speaker 3: nine at the top of the zone with his patented
Speaker 3: breaking ball. He looks like the Jared Jones that we
Speaker 3: know and love, which is an elite pitcher in this game.
Speaker 3: So the rotation is coming into form. I like this offense,
Speaker 3: and it'll be on Ben Charrington to address the bullpen
Speaker 3: and you know what, Overpay, sure do it, because I
Speaker 3: really do think that this team can compete if they
Speaker 3: get a couple of solid bullpen arms, and I think
Speaker 3: they can go up against the Cubs, they can go
Speaker 3: up against the Phillies and compete.
Speaker 1: I really do like I don't think.
Speaker 3: I think the Pirates, if they add a couple bullpen arms,
Speaker 3: are better than what the Reds were last year as
Speaker 3: that third wildcard team.
Speaker 1: Yes, I could totally see that. And at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, to your point about the offense being
Speaker 1: objectively good, the Pirate offense right now is number one
Speaker 1: in baseball and batting average it's number two, and OBP
Speaker 1: it's number three, and team ops they're eighth, and homers
Speaker 1: they're eighth in bags and most importantly their second in
Speaker 1: run score, and this offense is legit.
Speaker 3: They're number one against right handed pitching, which I think
Speaker 3: is super important, right because you face a lot more righties.
Speaker 1: Than you do lefties.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and being the number one offense is incredible, Like
Speaker 3: they deserve a lot of respect here. So yeah, of
Speaker 3: all these bubble teams, I think the Pirates are going
Speaker 3: to be the third wild card team.
Speaker 1: They're my pick. All right. Two more teams in the
Speaker 1: National League that we got to talk about here, the
Speaker 1: Saint Louis Cardinals. Cardinals are an interesting conversation right now,
Speaker 1: and Saint Louis is still firmly in the thick of it.
Speaker 1: Cardinals are fifty two and fifty twelve back in the
Speaker 1: Enal Central FANGRAFS gives them a twenty point four percent
Speaker 1: chance of making it to the postseason. They currently sit
Speaker 1: fifth in the wild card standings.
Speaker 3: This is tough because right now I have the Cardinals
Speaker 3: at twenty nine percent chance of making the playoffs again,
Speaker 3: still really in the hunt, and I've called him a
Speaker 3: playoff team for a while, but now I'm just starting
Speaker 3: to sour on that a little bit. And a big
Speaker 3: reason why is this bullpen is starting to kind of
Speaker 3: fall apart a little bit. Right now, they've fallen all
Speaker 3: the way to twentieth and era twenty first and whip
Speaker 3: they're twenty fourth in strikeouts per nine. You know, Dustin
Speaker 3: May isn't really on his heat or anymore. Michael McGreevey
Speaker 3: has been great, Kyle Lahy has been great, but the
Speaker 3: rotation is starting to take a little bit of a
Speaker 3: step back. And this offense is still really solid. But
Speaker 3: Mason Win, we need you to step up offensively. We
Speaker 3: know how good you are defensively. But Jack he's got
Speaker 3: a six thirty four ops. Blaize Jordan, they've called him up.
Speaker 3: He hasn't done anything. Jimmy Crooks at the catch position
Speaker 3: hasn't really done anything. I know they still got Pedro Pajez,
Speaker 3: but he hasn't done anything offensively either. Like, we know
Speaker 3: how good the top five are, we know it. The
Speaker 3: problem is they drop off a cliff at the end
Speaker 3: of the lineup, and a player that is definitely an
Speaker 3: X factor for the second half is Mason Win. We'
Speaker 3: hi hit to a mid seven hundreds ops. That could
Speaker 3: be enough to change a couple of ballgames. Yeah, so
Speaker 3: he I'm watching him. I'm watching this Cardinals bullpen, but
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, I think another reason
Speaker 3: I'm souring on him.
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be aggressive at the deadline.
Speaker 3: I think I'm going to see twenty five percent chance
Speaker 3: of making the playoffs and say, all right, we're gonna
Speaker 3: start selling. I still think the Cardinals finish around five hundred.
Speaker 3: They have a nice season again, ahead of schedule. Can't
Speaker 3: forget they started at sixty eight and a half, but
Speaker 3: ultimately outside looking in.
Speaker 1: Yes. The other big thing to me is if Riley
Speaker 1: O'Brien was still pitching like an All star, I would
Speaker 1: be convinced because they could cut the game by an inning.
Speaker 1: But he's not. Like Riley O'Brien has been very fragile
Speaker 1: over the last month and a half or so, and
Speaker 1: it was really fun while it lasted at the beginning
Speaker 1: of the year and at the end of last year.
Speaker 1: But Riley O'Brien, I'm just not sure if he's that guy.
Speaker 1: To be totally honest with you, so I'm with you. Yeah,
Speaker 1: pitching deficiencies, they could be holding them out, but still
Speaker 1: have Walker and weather Hole to your point, so they
Speaker 1: can absolutely slug their way into the conversation, but I'd
Speaker 1: be pretty hard pressed to see how they don't kind
Speaker 1: of pitch their way out of it over the next
Speaker 1: two months, no doubt. Last team that we yeah, last
Speaker 1: team that we got to talk about here is the
Speaker 1: Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West, and they are
Speaker 1: on fire right now. Arizona currently in terms of the
Speaker 1: wild card picture, sits in the final wildcard spot. They're
Speaker 1: fifty four and forty nine. They've won eight of the
Speaker 1: last ten, They've won three in a row. They now
Speaker 1: have a positive run differential at plus one, and the
Speaker 1: Arizona Diamondbacks, according to Fangrafts, have a forty percent chance
Speaker 1: of making the postseason right now. Let's say you, so
Speaker 1: I am a little bit lower.
Speaker 3: I'm at thirty seven or thirty six point eight actually,
Speaker 3: to be exact, like, so I have the Pirates of
Speaker 3: thirty seven percent and the d Backs at thirty six
Speaker 3: point eight percent. It's really anybody's ballgame. But ty goes
Speaker 3: to my brain, and my brain is still picking the
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Pirates. And the reason I'm not picking the Arizona
Speaker 3: Diamonbacks is I have no idea what to think about
Speaker 3: this rotation, said Wardo. Rodriguez, going to continue to pitch
Speaker 3: to a two six'. Two, honestly MAYBE i have my.
Speaker 3: Doubts Mitch, bratt he's twenty, Three he's got almost as
Speaker 3: many walks as strikeouts so far and his ten and two.
Speaker 3: Thirds Cole drake another prospect who they, got young Lefty
Speaker 3: Merril kelly who's had a terrible, season striking out five
Speaker 3: and a half per. Nine And Brandon fodd has put
Speaker 3: together good, starts but at the end of the, day
Speaker 3: he's got a four to four to THREE. Era like
Speaker 3: a lot of the D backs, problems, again are not their.
Speaker 3: Fault if you told Me Michael, Soroka Ryan, Nelson Zach,
Speaker 3: allen and Gorbyin burns were in this, rotation we're having
Speaker 3: a way different, discussion Right SO i think that's the
Speaker 3: difference IS i trust The pirates. ROTATION i do not
Speaker 3: trust The diamondbacks rotation at. All, HOWEVER i think the
Speaker 3: D backs bullpen is actually a full, tier if not,
Speaker 3: more above The Pittsburgh. Pirates but, AGAIN i think The
Speaker 3: pirates are going to address. That what are the D
Speaker 3: backs gonna do trade for four? Starters and THEN i
Speaker 3: look at the. Offense your brain might tell you the
Speaker 3: D backs have a better offense because that's, what like,
Speaker 3: you you should think as a baseball. Fan he's been
Speaker 3: watching baseball for the last five. YEARS i like The
Speaker 3: pirates offense, better SO i THINK i got the better.
Speaker 3: OFFENSE i have the better starting pitching, staff and so
Speaker 3: this is just based on what it is so far this.
Speaker 3: SEASON i think The pirates are going to add bullpen,
Speaker 3: arms which will even increase their odds even. More that's
Speaker 3: why my pick is The pirates to be the third
Speaker 3: wildcard team behind The cubs in The.
Speaker 1: Phillies here's What i'll say About. ARIZONA i Think Mike
Speaker 1: haysen is going to put to the test the idea
Speaker 1: Of peralta not costing much as a rental and the
Speaker 1: idea Of gosman not costing much as a. Rental what
Speaker 1: is the price of a rental? Starter Because Mike hasen
Speaker 1: could realistically go get two rental, starters and it just
Speaker 1: depends on how good the rental starters. Are if you
Speaker 1: told me that you had an influx Of Freddi peerltza
Speaker 1: And Kevin gosbin in this D back, rotation what would
Speaker 1: you Say i'd get a little right more Ex. Yeah
Speaker 1: but here's the.
Speaker 3: THING i just gotta, remember where do you think the
Speaker 3: D backs rank an ops this year on? Offense because
Speaker 3: we're talking about the, rotation and the rotation is the biggest,
Speaker 3: problem but we can't overlook another problem that they.
Speaker 1: Have where do you think they? Rank, YEAH i MEAN
Speaker 1: i think their bottom half right their.
Speaker 3: Twentieth, like that's shocking to me about A dbacks team
Speaker 3: that is getting a great season From Gaby.
Speaker 1: Moreno it's. Funny now we get the Healthy gabby moreto this. Year, yeah,
Speaker 1: right and he's been the. Best he's been the best
Speaker 1: hitter in their lineup BY wrc. Plus, Uh Gaby, moreno
Speaker 1: how about. This since the beginning of twenty twenty, three
Speaker 1: The diamondbacks With morenos starting behind the, dish they are
Speaker 1: one sixty seven and one thirty. Eight they're nearly thirty
Speaker 1: games over five. Hundred with anybody, else they're forty six
Speaker 1: games under five. Hundred he is AN x factor for,
Speaker 1: them and again BY wrc, plus he has been the
Speaker 1: best hit her in their lineup this. Year he's been
Speaker 1: better Than, Carrol he's been better Than. Marte Gabby moreno
Speaker 1: has been the guy For. Arizona and to your, point it's, Like,
Speaker 1: okay there are a whole bunch of other glaring deficiencies right,
Speaker 1: now and the offense is a macro is bottom ten
Speaker 1: in baseball at. Ops but this Is moreno's healthy.
Speaker 3: Year here's how the D backs make. It here's how
Speaker 3: the D backs make. It Kdel marte has to play.
Speaker 3: Better he's been eight percent abovely gaverage this. Year, offensively you.
Speaker 1: Got to be. Better you're way better than. That you
Speaker 1: should be one forty by, now hold, on, god graphic, Discrepancy,
Speaker 1: peyton can you throw that graphic up one more? Time
Speaker 1: he said six games, under not forty. Six, OKAY i misread.
Speaker 1: THAT i thought they were one hundred and one forty.
Speaker 1: Six my. Bad, okay there's six hunderd five hundred when
Speaker 1: he's not. Catching they are nearly thirty over when he is.
Speaker 1: Catching so that's on.
Speaker 3: Me all, Good and then you have Coateel marte again
Speaker 3: who has to be, better and Are Aldo perdomo here's
Speaker 3: been one percent abovely.
Speaker 1: Gaverage he's got to be. Better those two have to step.
Speaker 3: Up Mike hazan has to make a big time trade
Speaker 3: first starting, pitcher and then we could talk but, again
Speaker 3: they could still do it BECAUSE i do like their,
Speaker 3: bullpen and if those front four are hitting and they
Speaker 3: get a decent enough starting pitching, performance they can beat
Speaker 3: a lot of. Teams Right they're going head to head
Speaker 3: against The cardinals doing just, fine beating the shit out
Speaker 3: of them.
Speaker 1: Yesterday so the D backs can absolutely. Compete but.
Speaker 3: Let's go over now we just had we have our.
Speaker 3: Picks maybe you'll stay away from The National league because
Speaker 3: The marlins are in. There i'll ask you about Your
Speaker 3: American league, thoughts, like who do you think the wildcard teams?
Speaker 1: Are, okay So, tampa The White, sox AND i will
Speaker 1: Have seattle winning this. Division so then that leaves three.
Speaker 1: SPOTS i Think texas gets, In Yankees. Cleveland oh, god that's. Tough, Yeah,
Speaker 1: NO i Think, Yankees, Cleveland. Boston those are my wild
Speaker 1: card picks right, now With seattle winning the division instead
Speaker 1: Of texas in The American League, west so mine IS i.
Speaker 3: Have that's, FUNNY i have The rays finishing in. Second
Speaker 3: BUT i my model has been low on The rays all.
Speaker 3: Year i'm going to throw that out the. Window i'm
Speaker 3: just going to say that The rays and The yankees
Speaker 3: are the.
Speaker 1: Winner and the wild card.
Speaker 3: Team, SURE i have The White sox winning the division
Speaker 3: and The Red sox is another wild card. Team so
Speaker 3: REALLY i just have one spot, left AND i think
Speaker 3: my one spot is going to go To. Cleveland AND
Speaker 3: i have The mariners missing the playoffs and The rangers making.
Speaker 1: IT i think those are my.
Speaker 3: Picks and then for The National, league you have The
Speaker 3: dodgers winning The, west you have The birwers winning The.
Speaker 3: Central you have The braves winning The, east and THEN
Speaker 3: i have who is? It cubs And phillies in and The.
Speaker 3: PIRATES a, Right that's WHY i, Go.
Speaker 1: Yeah we will rap real quick with the weekend. Preview
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Speaker 1: Preview, OKAY i will tee you. Up we will talk
Speaker 1: about The Friday. Games first huge series this weekend AT
Speaker 1: Pnc park In, Pittsburgh cubs And. Pirates On friday night
Speaker 1: at six forty Pm Eastern, Time Matt boyd gets the
Speaker 1: ball for The cubs Opposite Jared jones and The. Pirates
Speaker 1: what say? You and why?
Speaker 3: So Jared jones is just pitching so damn well that
Speaker 3: it's hard to really go against. Him but Remember jack
Speaker 3: WHEN i said that The pirates are the number one
Speaker 3: offense against right handed, pitching they're number eighteen against left handed.
Speaker 3: Pitching And Matthew boyd has looked okay. LATELY i think
Speaker 3: this is going to be a really good.
Speaker 1: Game but you know, WHAT i. Believe give me the. Buckos,
Speaker 1: okay next one for you at six forty five Pm
Speaker 1: Eastern time In, philadelphia It's Yankees. Phillies Cam schlitzler gets
Speaker 1: the ball on the road at a raucous environment against Teesus,
Speaker 1: lozardo who has been one of the best pitchers in
Speaker 1: baseball over the last two.
Speaker 3: Months, absolutely AND i think this is going to be
Speaker 3: an awesome.
Speaker 1: GAME i.
Speaker 3: Think that total is sneaky, low AND i think it's
Speaker 3: based on how good that these two starting. Pitchers my
Speaker 3: model actually liked the over for any betters out, there
Speaker 3: AND i think it's mostly because The phillies bullpen isn't
Speaker 3: all that great and The yankees bullpen is good at in,
Speaker 3: spots but it's nothing that necessarily The phillies should be
Speaker 3: all that afraid of when it comes to picking a.
Speaker 3: Winner a mode of like The phillies this, morning AND
Speaker 3: i don't really know. Why my brain Says. Yankees my
Speaker 3: model Says, phillies and since my brain is, BIASED i have.
Speaker 1: To go with The. Phillies, okay there we. Go good
Speaker 1: for you putting, IT i guess showing YOUR j card
Speaker 1: and putting away your. Bias that's.
Speaker 3: YEAH i really don't know why it's liking The phillies
Speaker 3: above The, yankees If i'm being honest with, you like
Speaker 3: It's Cam Schlitlerkem.
Speaker 1: Lozzarro has been, AMAZING i, know AND i think that's.
Speaker 3: WHY i think it's just they're at. Home it's giving
Speaker 3: them a little bit of a.
Speaker 1: BUMP i don't, know, YEAH i don't, know all, Right
Speaker 1: last one On friday, here huge wrap around series, again
Speaker 1: four game sets starting tonight In, Arlington Mariners. Rangers Bryce
Speaker 1: miller For seattle up against a left hander for The
Speaker 1: yankee or for The rangers against This mariner. Lineup Mackenzie
Speaker 1: gore gets the ball For. Texas i'm gonna go with The.
Speaker 3: Rangers The mariners have an eighty SEVEN wrc plus against
Speaker 3: left handed pitching this. YEAR i, mean they just can't hit.
Speaker 1: Him.
Speaker 3: Now Mackenzie gore has been kind of a pitching machine
Speaker 3: these pitching to AN era near. Five so you know
Speaker 3: this will be a big prove it game for The.
Speaker 3: Mariners can you beat your division rival and can you
Speaker 3: beat a left handed? Pitcher and The mariners have just
Speaker 3: Been sea song. Series they win a, series they lose a,
Speaker 3: series they win a, series they lose a. Series they
Speaker 3: just lost a. Series did they win?
Speaker 1: One we'll. SEE i do think that The rangers end
Speaker 1: up winning game. One, okay let's Talk saturday, now and
Speaker 1: now we pivot to The ballpark pal game previews. Here
Speaker 1: Sonny gray is starting for The Boston Red sox at
Speaker 1: four to ten At fenway Against Dylan cees in The
Speaker 1: Toronto Blue. JAYS i can't wait to watch this.
Speaker 3: Game and for all those again, looking ballpark pal is
Speaker 3: a great, model and they make The Red sox minus one.
Speaker 3: Ten remember we were talking about scheduled disadvantages for The
Speaker 3: Red sox against a guy Like Dylan cees the ballpark pole,
Speaker 3: model and maybe that's more because The Blue jays. STINK
Speaker 3: i think that's, fair AND i Think Dylan cees pitches.
Speaker 3: WELL i don't think The Blue jays are gonna sniff
Speaker 3: like three, Runs SO i will take The Red sox
Speaker 3: in this one at. Home they're just too good to
Speaker 3: bet against right, now.
Speaker 1: All, right seven to Ten eastern on the south side Of.
Speaker 1: Chicago Sean burke in The White. Sox Sean burke has
Speaker 1: been good so far this year Against Hunter brown and
Speaker 1: The Houston. Astros ballpark pile makes The White sox the.
Speaker 1: FAVORITE i agree with.
Speaker 3: Them Hunter brown just hasn't looked like The Hunter brown of,
Speaker 3: old While Sean burke is on an incredible heater right.
Speaker 3: Now he's looking at least in his last four or five,
Speaker 3: game you, know stretch as one of the better pitchers
Speaker 3: in The American. League i'm gonna ride the hot. HAND
Speaker 3: i like The White, sox especially at. HOME i Think
Speaker 3: burke can go right up Against Hunter brown and bang with.
Speaker 1: Them last one On saturday at seven fifteen At City
Speaker 1: field In New, York Yoshinobu yamamoto on the road to
Speaker 1: The dodgers Against nolan McLain and The New York. Mets
Speaker 1: what a sick. Game but you got The.
Speaker 3: DODGERS i, Mean noel McLain looked downright filthy in his last,
Speaker 3: start AND i think he's gonna perform well against The.
Speaker 3: Dodgers but you Got yamamoto with that. Offense forget, It.
Speaker 3: Dodgers all.
Speaker 1: Right now we pivot To sunday Here Cleveland tampa In,
Speaker 1: Tampa Parker, MESSIK i left you against That tampa lineup
Speaker 1: Against Drew, rasmussen pair of all stars in The American.
Speaker 3: League can't wait to watch this game as, well great
Speaker 3: starting pitching, matchup But rasmussen at home In.
Speaker 1: Tampa Love messic. LOVE i think The.
Speaker 3: GUARDIANS i think that this could be a sneaky team
Speaker 3: to actually win this. Series but in this, game you
Speaker 3: just can't go Against rasmussen at the. Drop give me The.
Speaker 1: Rays, okay that is A peacock. Game twelve. Fifteen first
Speaker 1: pitch at one thirty Five eastern time In. Baltimore It's
Speaker 1: Braves Orioles Roynaldo lopez Against Brandon young for The orioles
Speaker 1: in a bravez. Os So i'm not in love with this.
Speaker 3: GAME i more wanted to bring up Ballpark pals projection
Speaker 3: that they make The orioles a small favorite here against
Speaker 3: the team like The Atlanta. Braves AND i think a
Speaker 3: big reason why Is Brandon. Young he has been one
Speaker 3: of the most underrated, pitchers maybe the most underrated pitcher
Speaker 3: in all of baseball this, year pitching to a low,
Speaker 3: threes really good, fastball And Raynaldo lopez is just so
Speaker 3: hit or. MISS i grew with ballpark Palle give me the.
Speaker 3: O'S i think the Upset atlanta, here.
Speaker 1: And then why the heck did you feature this? One
Speaker 1: at two Ten, Eastern Jacob mizerowski and The brewers at
Speaker 1: home against The rockies And Kyle.
Speaker 3: Freeland it's the biggest pitching Mismatch i've ever seen in
Speaker 3: my entire. Life Jacob mizerowski thrown absolute fuel Against Kyle
Speaker 3: freeland try to get His zerra below seven with.
Speaker 1: The rockies on the. Road The brewers might with this
Speaker 1: game forty to thk not because are you are you
Speaker 1: calling a position player pitching in this? One oh, Yeah
Speaker 1: i'm calling.
Speaker 3: TWO i think this will be one of the first
Speaker 3: games we see where it's like we're bringing in position
Speaker 3: players by the. Sixth you see The tigers brought one
Speaker 3: in by the. Seventh just forfeit at that, point just,
Speaker 3: forfeit all, right that DOESN'T i brought up a bunch
Speaker 3: of games.
Speaker 1: That i'm going to watch ON.
Speaker 3: TV i will be watching That Brewers rockies game BECAUSE
Speaker 3: i want to see how stark a difference it is
Speaker 3: Watching Kyle freeland throw eighty seven To mizerowski throw one
Speaker 3: hundred and.
Speaker 1: Seven love? That all? Right that's our? Program tick us, out.
Speaker 3: Baby that'll do it for this episode Of The Just Baseball.
Speaker 3: Show hopefully you enjoyed all of the episodes this. Week
Speaker 3: feel like we provided some, bangers deadline, primer mock, trades playoff.
Speaker 3: BUBBLES i already forget what we did earlier on in
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Speaker 3: the best baseball group chat in the world and talk
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Speaker 3: balling On Peter Apple special shout out to podcast p
Speaker 3: for brilliant. Producing once, again have a great. Weekend we'll
Speaker 3: see You sunday seven thirty pm From eastern for the
Speaker 3: weekend round, up Or i'll see you tomorrow for the
Speaker 3: meet and greet With Colson montgomery at The lids In.
Speaker 1: Chicago and with, that thank, you m