WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: July 18, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:06.560 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Burger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:06.640 --> 0:00:11.200 Daybreak for Monday, July two. Coming up, The shower stocks 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:14.040 face another test this week as more earnings roll in 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:17.280 oil jones following President Biden's trip to the Middle East. 0:00:17.560 --> 0:00:21.040 China rolls out mass testing as COVID cases rise, and 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:23.919 the January six Committee prepares to receive texts from the 0:00:24.040 --> 0:00:27.120 Secret Service. Another deadly shooting, this time that the all 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:29.880 in Indiana, and a damning report in the police response 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:32.480 to the school shooting in Texas. I'm John Tucker. Those 0:00:32.479 --> 0:00:35.639 stories straight ahead. I'm John Dasher's fourth second straight game 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:38.120 with the Yankees clustered the Red Sox. The Mets lost 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:44.520 in Chicago. Cameron Smith won the Open Championship Golf. That's 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:48.120 all straight ahead on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg Eleving 0:00:48.200 --> 0:00:52.599 freon New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one 0:00:52.640 --> 0:00:56.840 oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Sirius 0:00:57.000 --> 0:01:00.320 XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:07.720 dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business Act. Good Morning, 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:11.080 I'm Nathan Hagar, and I'm Karen Moscow US Dock Index 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:14.040 futures movie higher this morning. We're coming up to five 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:15.840 o one on Wall Street, and we checked the markets 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:19.360 every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg SMP 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.240 futures up forty three points, at OWN futures up three 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.800 hundred ten and NASDACK futures have one hundred sixty two. 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:29.240 Ten year Treasury down seven thirty seconds, yield two point 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.880 nine four percent, and a yield on the two year 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:35.319 three point one four percent. Nathan Karen. Markets are gearing 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:38.160 up for a slew of earnings this week. Investors are 0:01:38.200 --> 0:01:41.520 watching how business is weathering inflation and tightening from the FED. 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:45.320 The major banks finish reporting today following some disappointments from 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:48.920 results last week. Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger has a preview. The 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.840 investors may not be pleased with the numbers from Goldman 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:55.720 Sachs Bloomberg Intelligence, as Goldman's second quarter prophet may have 0:01:55.840 --> 0:01:59.880 declined sharply versus a year ago because of outsized investment 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:03.320 aims that turned to losses and the slide in banking 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:06.520 fees that exceeded trading revenue growth. We also hear from 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:10.280 Bank of America this morning, the outlook isn't entirely rosy. 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:12.840 What b I is more upbeat, saying be of A 0:02:13.080 --> 0:02:17.400 likely benefited from flat costs, net income that expanded with rates, 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:21.560 and healthy industry loan growth. Jeff Bellinger Bloomberg day Break, 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.520 All right, Jeff, thank you. And some other notable names 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:28.000 reporting this week include Tesla, Netflix, United Airlines, and IBM 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:30.520 and Nathan. This week's earnings coming the heels of June's 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:34.640 hot CPI report. Clara Advisers founder and managing principal Ryan 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:37.800 Blander says, even if there are earnings misses, big US 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:40.800 companies are still a good place for investors in the 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.640 sub environment. You gotta stay large cap. We think as 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:46.680 an overweight, we love the dividend paying stocks that provide 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:48.840 some cash flow. I would say you don't want to 0:02:48.880 --> 0:02:51.680 abandon large cap technology. I mean, some of these companies 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:55.800 are extremely profitable, have huge business modes, and are trading 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:59.080 at really nice discounts to their historic multiples. And Ryan 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.360 Blander and Clara Advisor says we're still likely to see 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:05.520 a prolonged period of volatility, and one of Wall Street's 0:03:05.520 --> 0:03:08.040 biggest bears, Karen says, US stocks are likely to face 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:11.320 more declines even if the economy managed to manages to 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.960 avoid a recession. Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson says he 0:03:15.000 --> 0:03:17.840 expects the bear market to continue, and he also sees 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:21.040 the odds of recession continuing to rise will turning to 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:24.760 commodities now. Nathan Oil is advancing this morning after last 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:28.760 week's almost seven percent drop. The jump follows President Biden's 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.840 landmark visit to the Middle East that wrapped up without 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:34.840 a firm commitment from Saudi Arabia to boost crewed supplies 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:37.560 and checking prices. Now Nimex screwed oil is at one 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:41.120 point eight percent of a dollar eighty four and forty 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:43.320 three cents a barrel Brent is that more than two 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:46.480 percent at a hundred three dollars thirty one cents in Europe. 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:49.800 This morning, candidates aiming to succeed UK Prime Minister Boris 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:52.040 Johnson are weighing in on the economy and the cost 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:54.960 of living crisis in the country. Bloomberg's You and Potts 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:57.360 joins us Live with the latest from London. Good Morning, 0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:00.840 Good Morning, Nathan and Karen. A second at TV debate 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:03.400 for the five remaining candidates to take over as the 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:07.160 next British Prime minister. Clear dividing lines starting to emerge 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.520 over taxes and the economy as lawmakers vote and narrow 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.760 the field. Here's former Chancellor Rishi Senac and for Foreign 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:17.840 Secretary Liz Trust, this is something for nothing. Economics isn't 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:22.240 conservative socialism Under your plans, we are predicted to have 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:26.480 a recession because you have raised tax It is cutting 0:04:26.520 --> 0:04:30.760 back on growth, it is preventing companies from investing, and 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.599 it's taking money out of people's pockets. That is no 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:38.280 way to get the economy going during a recession. Richie 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:40.200 Seon I you've seen as the front run or Penny 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.799 Mordans runs second list. Trust is third, but a recent 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.320 poll shows that she would beat all contenders in the 0:04:46.360 --> 0:04:49.560 final run off between toury members. Live in London, I'm 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.000 you in parts of bog Daybreak, are you? And thank you? 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:55.159 We moved to Italy now wre Prime Minister Mario drags 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:58.080 and a mounting pressure to reverse his pledge to resign. 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:00.960 Draggy appears determined to leave our for but Summer pushing 0:05:00.960 --> 0:05:03.920 for him to stay. Bloomberg's tomaso Ebb Heart is more 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:07.520 from a lawn the pression is not coming from political parties, 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.520 but is coming from the country, from a business leader, 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.880 from professor, from major of more than four hundred cities. 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:17.960 So there is growing impression. But at the moment Mario 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:21.599 Dagi seems determined to live because of the National Unity 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:24.839 government that used to run is not there anymore. The 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:28.279 collision is essentially broken. Bloomer Tomasso Ebb heard in Milan, 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.440 says Mario Dragon will address lawmakers when stay to declare 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.600 whether or not he'll quit the government. Turning the Asia now, Karen, 0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:36.720 it was a good day for equity thanks to softer 0:05:36.839 --> 0:05:39.320 signs from the FED and pledges from China to shore 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:42.200 up economic growth. Bloomberg's Juliette Sally joins us with the 0:05:42.200 --> 0:05:45.280 details from Singapore. Good morning, Juliet, Good morning, Nathan, and Karen. 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:48.320 The ms CI Asia Pacific Index excluding Japan, which was 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.000 closed for a holiday, gained more than one percent, boosted 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:54.600 by a jump in Chinese textures. Sentiment across mainland equities 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:57.040 and in Hong Kong was boosted after the p POC 0:05:57.160 --> 0:06:00.600 indicated it will step up implementation of prudent monitory policy. 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:03.640 Shares of Chinese developers jumped by the most in nearly 0:06:03.680 --> 0:06:06.760 a month, following a report that the nation's banking regulator 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:10.080 has urged lenders to support the sector amid a growing 0:06:10.080 --> 0:06:14.839 mortgage Boycosh in Singapore, Juliet Sally Bloomberg, daybreak Right, Juliette, 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:18.039 thank you meantime. In China, cases of COVID nineteen remain elevated. 0:06:18.120 --> 0:06:21.080 Shanghai is rolling out mass testing at nine districts to 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:25.279 stamp out infections. The country reported five cases for Sunday 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:28.760 after new infections jumped to five eight on Saturday. Turning 0:06:28.760 --> 0:06:31.320 to politics now, the House January six Committee says it 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:35.440 expects to get Secret Service texts before tomorrow's deadline. Bloomberg said, 0:06:35.480 --> 0:06:38.200 Baxter has that story. These are texts that it was 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:41.120 first said were deleted in a system upgrade text that 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:44.520 we're not backed up now. Committee member Zoe Lofgren says, 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:47.080 a change in tune, and there was a statement made 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.200 by the spokesperson for the Department saying that you know 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:53.240 it wasn't true, was fair and that they in fact 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.640 had pertinent texts. And remember Adam Kissinger says he hopes 0:06:56.680 --> 0:07:00.240 to get good information. It is quite crazy that the 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:03.919 Secret Service would actually end up deleting anything related to 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:06.800 one of the more infamous days in American history, and 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:09.640 he says he doesn't know exactly what they'll get. In 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:12.840 San Francisco, I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, ed, 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:15.560 thank you straight ahead. We have your latest local headlines, 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:19.040 plus a check of sports. You're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:24.760 us at five oh seven on Wall Street where it's 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:27.480 seventy seven degrees in Central Park and dealing with an 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:32.040 accident on the westbounds Cross, Bronx said, Third Avenue. Details 0:07:32.080 --> 0:07:34.960 coming up in traffic. First, John Tucker's here with more 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:37.080 on what's going on in New York and around the world. 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:39.920 Good morning, John and Nathan. Another deadly man shooting, this 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:43.480 one he signed Shopping mullin Greenwood, Indiana. Please say they 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:47.240 still unidentified adult male enter the mall's food court shortly 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:50.440 after six pm local time, apparently with a long gun 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:54.559 and several magazines of ammunition, and started shooting. Five people 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:57.600 were shot, Three of them died. Please say, Good samaritan 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:01.200 to his arm shot the attacker, killing him. The real 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:06.040 hero of the day is the citizen that was lawfully 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:08.800 carrying a firearm in that food court and was able 0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:12.600 to stop the shooter almost as soon as he began. 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:17.080 That Screenwood Police Chief Jim Ice and Damna investigative report 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.320 about the mass shooting in Texas. That report finds nearly 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.560 four hundred law enforcement officials rushed to the mass shooting 0:08:23.560 --> 0:08:28.680 at Vivandi Elementary School, but egragiously poor decision making resulted 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:31.360 in more than an hour of chaos before the government 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:34.960 who took twenty one lives was finally confronted and killed. 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.600 With manting, New York is frustrated with crime. Mayor Eric 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:41.960 Adams has been on the road raising money. That story 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:45.000 in this report this morning from Bloomberge Lisa Matteo. The 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:48.000 mayor raised more than eight hundred and fifty thousand dollars 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:52.560 for his re election campaign barely six months after taking office. 0:08:52.760 --> 0:08:56.319 The figure comes from filings with the city's campaign finance Board. 0:08:56.440 --> 0:08:58.920 According to The Times, the campaign hall is a result 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:02.040 of Mr Adams this traveling across the country to raise 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:05.240 money for a second term. Nearly half of Mayor Addams's 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:08.720 campaign donations, more than four hundred thousand dollars, came from 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.000 outside New York City. The donors include leaders from real 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:16.920 estate casino and sports betting businesses Liice Mateo, Bloomberg Daybreak 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:20.760 and President Vladimir Zelinski removed his national security head in 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:26.560 Ukraine's top prosecutor, alleging that some employees collaborated with Russian intelligence. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:30.080 The firings, which targets sensitive polls for a country at war, 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:35.000 include the Security Service Chief Personal Friend, whose agency's tasks 0:09:35.000 --> 0:09:39.560 include counter intelligence, and former Trump White House advisor Steve Bannon, 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:42.920 scheduled to go on trial today for contempt of Congress. 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.880 Bannon spent nearly two months to find a subpoena from 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:49.400 the January six committee before he was indubted on contempt 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.880 of Congress charges in November. As his trial Jake neared, 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.920 Bennon offered to testify the public, hering an offer that 0:09:56.040 --> 0:10:00.640 federal prosecutors called not an actual effort at compliance. Global 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:02.640 News twenty four hours a day on air and a 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:05.160 Bloomberg Quick Take Power bog for the twenties seven hundred 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:07.720 journalists and analysts and more than one hundred twenty countries. 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:10.640 I'm John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thank you. 0:10:10.720 --> 0:10:17.520 John five ten on Wall Street Time for the Bloomberg 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:20.600 Sports Update with John Stonshower Thanks Nathan Rory, McElroy has 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:21.800 to be wondering what he has to do to win 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:26.000 that elusive fifth career major, the Open Championship at St. Andrew's. 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:28.400 He had the full support of the crowd, shot eighteen 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:31.440 under far only had four bogees the entire tournament, none 0:10:31.880 --> 0:10:34.920 in yesterday's final round. He still blew up fourth shot lead. 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:38.839 Dam Smith, the twenty eight year old Ausse's, simply outputted 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:41.520 and ran off five straight birdies to start the back nine. 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:45.080 Smith twenty under, tie the record for major. Cam Young, 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:48.560 the Westchester native, who began the Open with a sixty four, 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:51.200 finished with a sixty five and an eagle on the 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.760 par four eighteen poll. He been a second. McElroy was 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:58.719 third County two, despondent because it hid this year's gent 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:00.760 and this year is going and and I'm I'm playing 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:02.840 some of the best golf had a play in a 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:04.880 long time, so it's just a matter of keep, you know, 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:08.160 knocking on the door, and eventually won the Locan. McRoy 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:10.640 still has not one of major since two thousand fourteen. 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:13.760 Yankees hit the All Star Rak sixty four and twenty eight, 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:15.560 even with a bad week where they lost five out 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:16.920 of six. They won the last two of the Red 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:21.079 Sox by combined seven to three. Hit was thirteen and 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:23.920 two yesterday as Tim Locastro the unlikely hitting star three 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:26.640 hits at the home run even Joey Gallo amored. Garret 0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:29.240 Cole struck out twelve or his ninth win. Mets seemed 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.480 on their way to a four game sweep in Chicago. 0:11:31.559 --> 0:11:33.800 Cubs scored twice in the eighth and one three to two. 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:36.120 Mets are fifty eight and thirty five, two and a 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.360 half games ahead of Atlanta. Year ago, the Mets, with 0:11:38.400 --> 0:11:40.600 the tenth pick in the draft, took Kumar Rocker, a 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:43.520 picture from Vanderbilt. Then they had injury concerns and never 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:46.040 signed him. He went back into the draft in a surprise. 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:49.079 He was taken third overall by Texas. Sons of former 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:52.400 Rachel Leakers went one to Matt Holliday's son Jackson by Baltimore, 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:56.160 Andrew Jones and son Drew taken by Arizona. John Stashward 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.920 Bloomberg Sports, Nathan, thank you, john S and p. Futures 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.440 of forty points right now. Deaf futures up T nine, 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:04.800 NASTAC futures up a hundred fifty three. This is Bloomberg 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.320 The Bloomberg day Break brought to you by Pepack Private 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:12.520 Wealth Management. Pepack Private Wealth Management knows that a portfolio 0:12:12.640 --> 0:12:14.680 is more than a collection of assets. It's a path 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:17.600 to your future. Visit Pepack Private dot com and begin 0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:24.600 your financial legacy Today, Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.480 four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com. The Bloomberg 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:31.040 Business at and at Bloomberg Quick Tape is a Bloomberg 0:12:31.160 --> 0:12:40.560 Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. European stocks in US 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.080 stock index futures are on the rises morning when the 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:46.400 dollar weekends, as investors scale back bets on how aggressively 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.600 the Federal reserve titan policy. We checked the markets every 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.280 fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.120 Western p futures or up about forty points, Down futures 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:58.800 up two two and Nastack futures up a hundred forty eight. 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.439 The decks in Germany is at one point three percent, 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:03.680 so as the cat in Paris and the foot see 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.640 one hundred ten year treasury down eleven thirty seconds held 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.640 two point nine five percent. They yield on the two 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.880 year three point one four percent. Ni Max Screwed oil 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.439 is up two point two percent of two dollars thirteen 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.760 cents and ninety nine dollars eighty six cents a barrel 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:20.120 comes gold up nine tenths percent or fourteen dollars eighty cents. 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:23.760 At seventeen eighteen thirty announced the euro one point zero 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.880 one four zero against the dollar, British found one point 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:29.240 one nine eight and the yen is at one thirty 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:31.520 eight point to six. And look at it Bitcoin, it's 0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:34.679 up more than six percent at twenty two thousand, two 0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:38.160 hundred forty five dollars. And we are watching for earnings today. 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:41.559 Angleman Saxon, Bank of America among those reporting that's a 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.520 Bloomberg business flash. Now here's John Tucker with more on 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:47.000 what's going on around the world. John, Good morning, and 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:50.920 good morning, Karen. Three people killed at a mall in Greenwood, Indiana, 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.319 in a shooting that ended when an arm man fatally 0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:57.440 shout the government, demming investigative reports. His poor decision making 0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:00.480 resulted in more than an hour of chao us before 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:03.440 the government to twenty one lives was finally confronted and 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:06.520 killed by police at a Texas elementary school, and the 0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.679 Russian Defense Minister has ordered his forces to focus on 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:13.760 destroying Ukraine's long range missile and artillery systems during a 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.920 visit to troops and occupied territory. Bloomberg sports Yankees at 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:19.680 the All Star Break with a thirteen to two win 0:14:19.800 --> 0:14:22.520 over the Red Sox, The Mets lows and Cam Smith 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:25.760 wins the British Open. Global News twenty four hours a 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:28.600 day on air on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.600 than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than one 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:35.800 d twenty countries on John Tucker and this is Bloomberg. 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:39.160 Nathan John, Thank you. It's five nineteen on Wall Street 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:43.120 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.960 As we get set for another trading week focused on 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:48.960 earnings and what the Fed's gonna do at the end 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:51.840 of this month, Let's bring in Dennis Gartman, chairman of 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:55.040 the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee for of course, 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.880 former publisher of the Gartment Letter. Dennis, it's great to 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:00.960 speak with you this morning. As we see green on 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:04.240 the screen following last week's end of week rally, it 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:07.320 seems like markets are sort of dialing back the idea 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:10.440 of a hundred basis point move by the FED at 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:13.040 the end of this month. What are you pricing in 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:15.480 in terms of what the Fed could do? And I 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:17.320 think that the market got a little bit silly last 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:19.000 week thinking that FED was going to move a hundred 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:22.320 basis points. That made it abundantly clear through comments from 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:25.280 various regional presidents and the governors of the FED, that 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:27.480 seventy five basis points was as far as they were 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.280 willing to go. Uh and and so the fact that 0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.760 they're dialing it back a little bit given the benefits 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:37.800 of better than expected retail sales number on Friday, surprised me. 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:39.680 I must admit that the stock market has been as 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:41.680 strong as it has been. As the chairman of the 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.680 University of Akrons Endowment, I got us to move almost 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:46.760 fifty of our portfolio out at the end of the 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:49.760 last year, and I've been officially barish of stocks since 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:53.400 January this year. So maybe I'm wrong. It is possible 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:55.640 that we've seen a low I have my doubts at 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:57.320 this point. I think the FED is going to continue 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:01.000 to be uh less exp eactionary than they had been. 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:03.960 They're going to be exactly actually contractionary as far as 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.200 monetary policy is concerned. I'm far more interested in what 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:08.840 they're doing with their balance sheet than they have than 0:16:08.880 --> 0:16:11.200 what they're doing with the overnight said funds, right, and 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.320 the balance sheet, which have gone from nine billion dollars 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:16.040 to nine trillion dollars in the course of the last 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.880 several years, has to be drawn down. That that has 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.360 bunnily has full as time and time again they intend 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.280 to take sixty five billion dollars out of the balance 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:26.720 sheet over the course of the next several years. That 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.080 I think is far more important than far ore deltarious 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:31.880 to stock prices. But nonetheless share prices need to be 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.840 going up, and I must admit I'm surprised you say 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.560 you could be wrong about being barished on this market. 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:39.680 What are you looking at? What would have to change 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:43.080 in the market for you to turn bullish. The most 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.040 important thing is how the internals of the market respond, 0:16:46.080 --> 0:16:49.120 and thus far rallies have been on lesser volume and 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.400 the climbs have been on larger volume. That's how bear 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.320 markets act, and thus far I have to say that 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:56.960 every rally has been a bear market rally, a bounce 0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:00.120 rather than a rather than a bullish move. We to 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.040 see volumes started to come in on the upside and 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.240 it's not doing so, so I'll continue to err upon 0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:08.240 the side of being modestly barished at this point. But 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:10.800 that's the thing that I have to see to see change. 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:12.840 I have to see the internals of the market change, 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:16.440 and I have to see the FED become expansionary again 0:17:16.600 --> 0:17:19.040 rather than contractionary. I have to see lessening of the 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:21.760 yield curve which has gone to an inversion, which is 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:24.480 always barish of stock prices. So a change in the 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:27.439 inversion of the yield curve and a in a movement 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:29.920 on the on stock prices to rise on stronger volume 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:32.160 than fall and lesser volume before I'll have to change 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:35.280 my opinion. Do you think that inversion of the yield 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.840 curve could change anytime soon? What's your outlook on where 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.240 yields could go from here? I think the overnight PID 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:44.760 funds really wants to go another seventy five basis points higher. 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:47.160 At the same time, at the back end of the curve, 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:49.000 I think grates want to come down a little bit. 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.119 I'm actually modestly bullish with the long end of the 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:57.359 curve thinking that the inflationary pressures are beginning to abate. 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.359 The the decline and crude oil prices of the client 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:02.639 and wheak prices of the declient, and grain prices generally, 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.840 the decline and base metals prices tells me that inflationary 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:09.280 pressures are probably peaked. So that I think that is, 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:11.520 I think the FED wants to continue to tighten at 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:13.320 the short end of the curve, but the long end 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:15.359 of the curve wants two yields once to probably go 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:18.000 a little bit lower. So the long of the tenure, 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:20.240 which is what now two nine two or something two 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.880 n three, you can go down to two seventy five, 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:25.720 and the short end of the curve you can take 0:18:25.720 --> 0:18:28.280 the overnight said funds right another seventy five basis points higher. 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:30.600 So it'll be at least six months to a year 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:33.000 before the Yel curve becomes non inverted, it goes to 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:36.280 a more positive slope. Again, that about a minute left here, Dennis, 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:38.440 what's your read on how earnings have gone so far, 0:18:38.480 --> 0:18:41.359 particularly from the banks, and what's your outlook as we 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:44.879 go forward further into the earning season. Bank earnings and 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:47.760 an inverted YEL curve will always be detrimental. It's it's 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:51.439 just as I've always said positively. So youel curves make 0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:54.560 banking geniuses out of idiots, and then inverted youel curves 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.399 make idiots out of idiots. So I think that the 0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:59.240 the banking system is going to have problems of the 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:01.159 deal curve and some stays in droted for a long 0:19:01.200 --> 0:19:04.360 period of time. Thanks for this, Dennis, as always good 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.520 to get your thoughts. Dennis Gartman, the former publisher of 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:10.520 the Gartman Letter, now chairman of the University of Akron 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:13.640 Endowment Investment Committee, with us this morning here on Bloomberg 0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:18.480 Daybreak as we watch equities continue to rise around the world. 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:21.760 SMP futures right now up forty three points, that's again 0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:23.800 one point one percent. Dow futures are up through to 0:19:23.880 --> 0:19:27.040 twelve points. NASTAC futures leading gains this morning, up a 0:19:27.080 --> 0:19:29.040 hundred fifty nine points. That's a gain of one and 0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:32.400 a third percent. Germany's decks the cat in Paris both 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:35.280 up one and a half percent this morning. The tenure 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:38.440 treasury is down eleven thirty seconds. The yield two point 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:41.600 nine five percent yield on the two year again, the 0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:44.560 twos and tens in inversion with a two year yield 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:47.880 at three point one four percent. Watching a crude oil 0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:50.440 prices on the rise this morning. Nime X screwed is 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:54.480 up two point two percent, up two dollars thirteen cents 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:56.959 seventy two cents a barrel. The euro right now one 0:19:57.000 --> 0:20:00.959 point zero one for seven against the dollar. You're listening 0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:09.080 to Bloomberg Day right Bloomberg eleven three oh weather Cloudye, 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.040 some showers and storms developing. My midday low eighties for 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.280 highs will be near ninety in the sunshine tomorrow hot 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:19.240 Wednesday highs near right now seventy seven in Central Park. 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:29.480 Broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York, 0:20:29.600 --> 0:20:34.240 Bloomberg E Loving free to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:37.800 Bloomberg one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg Homes 0:20:37.840 --> 0:20:41.080 sixty to the country, Sirius XM Chando one nine, and 0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:44.560 around the globe the Bloomberg Business at in Bloomberg Radio 0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:54.000 dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on 0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:57.240 Wall Street. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:20:57.359 --> 0:20:59.960 We are just about four hours away from the open 0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:01.720 of US trading. Let's catch you up to date of 0:21:01.760 --> 0:21:03.760 the news you need to know at this hour. Market 0:21:03.800 --> 0:21:06.600 steering up for a slew of earnings this week, investors 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:09.679 are watching how business is weathering inflation and tightening from 0:21:09.720 --> 0:21:13.120 the Fed, Goldman Saxon, Bank of America rapp up reporting 0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:16.120 from the major banks today. Other notable names this week 0:21:16.160 --> 0:21:20.360 include Tesla, Netflix, United Airlines, and IBM. Well, all these results, 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:23.320 Karen come on the heels of June's hot CPI report. 0:21:23.400 --> 0:21:27.040