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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel World

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Speaker 2: Baseball Classic Best Bets. Episode here on the podcast Brendan

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Speaker 2: Glasheen joined by one of our baseball experts, Sean Zarillo.

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Speaker 2: We're going to dive right into the fifth World Baseball Classic.

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Speaker 2: It begins on Tuesday. Just some nuts and bolts. Two

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Speaker 2: week tournament. Championship game will be in Miami Tuesday, March

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Speaker 2: twenty first, so they get this sucker done in two weeks.

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Speaker 2: We'll have four additional teams from the previous regimes. This

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Speaker 2: year we have twenty teams as opposed to sixteen, and

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Speaker 2: the last winner was the United States to beat Puerto

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Speaker 2: Rico back in twenty seventeen. They were going to bring

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Speaker 2: this back in twenty twenty one, but COVID knock that out,

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Speaker 2: so World Baseball Classic is back. We'll dive into some

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Speaker 2: more history as well. How it all breaks down, Zorillo,

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Speaker 2: It is always a round of first with you. I

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Speaker 2: have yet to do a World Baseball Classic pod with you.

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Speaker 2: I'm very curious as to how you handicap and how

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Speaker 2: your baseball number crunching and breakdowns might work for this.

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Speaker 1: What do you got yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's very difficult to find data on some

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Speaker 3: of these teams, some of these players, even the teams

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Speaker 3: in the middle tier who have some major league players

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Speaker 3: on them. The rest of the roster is filled out

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Speaker 3: with guys who it's very difficult to find data on,

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Speaker 3: so we do our best. I think the best way

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Speaker 3: to approach it is to know that the best teams

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Speaker 3: are likely to be there in the end, and teams

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Speaker 3: like the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, the United States,

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Speaker 3: I have good data on them, so to see how

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Speaker 3: they stack up relative to each other I think was

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Speaker 3: the most interesting aspect, and then we sort of fill

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Speaker 3: out the rest of the table to the best of

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Speaker 3: our abilities. There's teams like Cuba who I think are

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Speaker 3: huge wildcards who a lot of their talent, their best

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Speaker 3: talent from their league was sort of sucked out by

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Speaker 3: major league teams signing their young prospects, so we haven't

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Speaker 3: had as many professional Cuban players defecting and coming over

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Speaker 3: in recent years.

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Speaker 1: So Cuba is a huge wildcard.

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Speaker 3: So we don't really know what their talent pool is,

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Speaker 3: considering they're normally one of the best baseball countries in

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Speaker 3: the world. But just to briefly set the format, four pools,

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Speaker 3: five teams. They're all going to play around robin. The

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Speaker 3: top two teams from each pool are going to advanced.

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Speaker 3: Pool A will play Pool B. We'll see will play

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Speaker 3: Pool D in the semifinals, and then they're gonna or sorry,

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Speaker 3: they will play a quarterfinal with the one versus twos.

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Speaker 3: The winners of those matchups will play a semifinal, and

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Speaker 3: then the pools will meet in the final. All single

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Speaker 3: game elimination all the way through. So a lot of

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Speaker 3: luck came factor into this. Once you get to that

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Speaker 3: single game elimination stage, you're going to need a little

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Speaker 3: bit of depth to get through the four other teams

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Speaker 3: in your pool. But then once you get to that

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Speaker 3: single game elimination three games at the end to potentially

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Speaker 3: win it, a little bit of walk to go a

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Speaker 3: long way. So always a fun tournament that is going

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Speaker 3: to be fun to talk about, and who knows, maybe

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Speaker 3: we get one of these teams that are one hundred

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Speaker 3: to one hundred and fifty to one go on a

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Speaker 3: little Cinde row run.

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Speaker 2: As it pertains to the FanDuel Sportsbook Odds from FanDuel

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Speaker 2: for our podcast here, the Action Network podcast looking at

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Speaker 2: the World Baseball Classic. You have your outrights, and then

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Speaker 2: you'll also have your pool winners. So if we go

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Speaker 2: pool by pool, we'll start with Pool A. Cuba the

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Speaker 2: favorite at plus one point fifteen. Are you willing and

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Speaker 2: you brought up Cuba there a moment ago? Are you

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Speaker 2: willing to not necessarily dumpster dive but look further down

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Speaker 2: the board to make a play here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I think this is the most wide open of

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Speaker 1: the four pools.

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Speaker 3: All the teams that I have here, so there's twenty

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Speaker 3: teams in the field. All the teams that I have

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Speaker 3: here in this pool are ranked between seven and thirteenth.

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Speaker 3: Very tightly bunched. Cuba basically, in their four potential games,

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Speaker 3: I would only project them between fifty two percent and

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Speaker 3: fifty eight percent. As we go through the other pools,

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Speaker 3: you'll see the wider range of potential money lines. When

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Speaker 3: you get to your USA's or your Japans. Against the

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Speaker 3: lesser teams, you should be getting into the minus four hundreds.

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Speaker 3: But basically I would have Cuba between minus one twenty

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Speaker 3: and minus one forty, minus one ten and minus one

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Speaker 3: forty in each of those four games, the team who

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Speaker 3: stands out to me, the team who's surprisingly ranked above

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Speaker 3: their spot, was Italy. They have a bunch of major

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Speaker 3: league guys on their roster, not as many stars as

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Speaker 3: a team like the Netherlands or I mean, Cuba has

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Speaker 3: Loose Robert, but the Netherlands have guys like Xander Bogarts.

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Speaker 3: Their pitching is a little spotty. Italy is guys like

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Speaker 3: Vinnie Pasquentino. They have guys like Ryan Castellani in the bullpen,

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Speaker 3: and when I projected out the entire roster for Italy,

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Speaker 3: I think they actually do fair better over the course

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Speaker 3: of playing four games. They have a little bit more

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Speaker 3: depth at just the touch, more major league pieces on

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Speaker 3: their roster. Mike Piazza, unfortunately, might be their best catcher

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Speaker 3: and he is managing the team, so that's a huge

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Speaker 3: hole their Maybe he comes off the bench and gives

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Speaker 3: them a finch s hitting opportunity when they need it.

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Speaker 3: But Italy, I think just out ranks where their odds are.

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Speaker 3: They're around four to one, as high as six to one,

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Speaker 3: depending on where you look. I would bet them down

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Speaker 3: to round plus three to fifty. I think they're going

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Speaker 3: to be competitive in all of these games, and I

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Speaker 3: like the depth on their rosters. So Italy to win

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Speaker 3: the group at over around three point five to one

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Speaker 3: I think is a fine bet. Like I said, though,

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Speaker 3: this is a wide open group. I don't mind taking

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Speaker 3: a shot on any of these teams. Chinese TYPEI in here.

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Speaker 3: We've bet on the CPBO a lot during the pandemic.

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Speaker 3: Going to see how their bat stack up is very

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Speaker 3: interesting because that's an offensive heavy league, and they have

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Speaker 3: some interesting pitching prospects as well who throw hard.

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Speaker 1: So I'm interested to.

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Speaker 3: See how Chinese type stacks up against some of these

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Speaker 3: major league guys. But the team in here for me

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Speaker 3: is Italy. Will probably be betting other teams against Cuba,

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Speaker 3: but it's mostly just trying to find a team in

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Speaker 3: a bunched up group that I think can pop.

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Speaker 2: Whoever emerges from Pool A has to face a gauntlet.

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Speaker 2: In all likelihood it's Japan coming out of Pool B.

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Speaker 2: They're at minus five fifty, Korea next at plus four ten.

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Speaker 2: So of course for Japan, the angle you'd take on

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Speaker 2: them is they're starting pitching right. They're starting pitching Otani,

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Speaker 2: Darvish Sasaki. These are guys that could carry them through

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Speaker 2: and we'll get to outrights later on. But are you

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Speaker 2: looking elsewhere other than Japan and Pool.

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Speaker 3: Be Yeah, I like Korea here at four and a

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Speaker 3: half to one, four to one to win the group.

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Speaker 3: You know, basically, I think this is a two team group. Japan,

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Speaker 3: I make seventy five percent or better against the other

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Speaker 3: three teams that aren't Korea Korea, I make seventy percent

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Speaker 3: or better against the other three teams that are in Japan.

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Speaker 3: So I do think that this game or this group

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Speaker 3: comes down to the one game between.

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Speaker 1: Korea and Japan.

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Speaker 3: And you're giving me a Korea right now at four

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Speaker 3: to one, when I would probably make Japan at best

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Speaker 3: around minus one fifty in that matchup, starting pitching matchup provided.

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Speaker 3: But I do think Korea, the KBO, the money influx

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Speaker 3: from ESPN, the attention it's gotten.

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Speaker 1: You look at the KBO.

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Speaker 3: Stars that have come over here and improved, like Hasan

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Speaker 3: Kim Kim on that Korean roster. It's actually when we

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Speaker 3: get this Korea Japan matchup, especially if you're a Cardinals fan,

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Speaker 3: because you're going to be getting Tommy Edmond against Lars

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Speaker 3: Nubar as prominent pieces in this matchup, but obviously the

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Speaker 3: Japan is more recognizable stars Darvishotana. You mentioned roe piece Ofsaki,

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Speaker 3: maybe the best pitching prospect in the world right now.

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Speaker 3: But I think Korea is pretty solid team as well,

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Speaker 3: very deep. I think they have a lot of pieces

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Speaker 3: that are going to be able to keepete with Japan.

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Speaker 3: But it's purely just a pricing thing. I certainly project

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Speaker 3: Japan is the better team. I make them the second

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Speaker 3: best or the second likeliest winner of the tournament, probably

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Speaker 3: having as the third best team.

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Speaker 1: Overall Korea I have fifth.

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Speaker 3: Everybody else in this group, starting with Australia I have

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Speaker 3: as sixteenth and below, so there's a huge gap between

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Speaker 3: these two teams and the rest of the group. I

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Speaker 3: think it comes down to one game at best. I

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Speaker 3: couldn't imagine we're going to get better than two to one,

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Speaker 3: maybe two and a half to one on Korea in

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Speaker 3: that game. Straight up I said, I would probably project

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Speaker 3: it closer to plus one fifty on average. So Korea

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Speaker 3: pre tournament, pre flop I definitely think is a great

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Speaker 3: bet to win their group.

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Speaker 1: When they're pull at four to one.

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Speaker 2: Other side of the bracket pool see Team USA minus

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Speaker 2: three sixty the favorite to come out of that particular pool.

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Speaker 2: It's not as loaded of a team. And we'll get

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Speaker 2: to group D when we talk about the Dominican Republic.

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Speaker 2: But Trout, Bets Shore or Goldschmidt, Alonzo go are right

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Speaker 2: down the list. They've got some household names that are

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Speaker 2: in the majors. I guess do you consider it all

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Speaker 2: what their responsibilities are at the major league level when

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Speaker 2: you factor this in. I'm curious as to how you

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Speaker 2: because you do have data on a lot of these

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Speaker 2: players from a Major League Baseball standpoint, But do you

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Speaker 2: have confidence that the United States guys care as much

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Speaker 2: because they've got these guys are big money players in

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Speaker 2: Major League Baseball?

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Speaker 3: You know, I do think they care. I don't think

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Speaker 3: Mike Trout, who has had very few opportunities, maybe one

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Speaker 3: opportunity in the past and his entire career, is going

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Speaker 3: to bypass an opportunity to win something on a big stage.

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Speaker 3: This is a answer for him to really add something

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Speaker 3: to his legacy. I don't think these guys are jumping

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Speaker 3: on the team. There's so many options for Team USA

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Speaker 3: for who to put on this roster. If these guys

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Speaker 3: are half hearted about being on the roster. I don't

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Speaker 3: know why they would go, So no concerns regarding confidence.

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Speaker 3: You talk about having data though, to see how this

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Speaker 3: USA team stacks up, because there are more teams, frankly,

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Speaker 3: in this bracket, in this half of the bracket that

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Speaker 3: we have major league data on as compared to your

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Speaker 3: careers in Japan, where I'm using major league equivalent stats.

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Speaker 3: I projected and we'll just jump out to the semifinal. Potentially,

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Speaker 3: I've projected USA as a better team than the American

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Speaker 3: Republic and that surprised me going in. The big thing

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Speaker 3: here is the defense. You look at the Dominican Republic

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Speaker 3: behind the plate mc Gary Sanchez or Francisco Mahia. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna run Buck Wilde on that team, not only on

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Speaker 3: stolen bases with Trey Turner and Mookie Bets up top,

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Speaker 3: but you think on the base pass as well, and

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Speaker 3: we're a much better defensive team. Tam Sanchez an absolute

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Speaker 3: mess behind the plate. Dominican Republic in the corner outfield

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Speaker 3: probably going to have Soto, Eloi Jimenez, Teoscar Hernandez some

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Speaker 3: combo of those three will be their two corner outfielders.

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Speaker 3: So we are a much better defensive team top to bottom.

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Speaker 3: We are a faster, better base running team top to bottom,

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Speaker 3: aside from probably Julio Rodriguez, maybe jere mcpaniel a little bit.

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Speaker 3: But the USA's pitching kind of sacks up with Puerto

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Speaker 3: Rico better than I thought their offense. We have more

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Speaker 3: depth than they do. They have maybe better top heavy

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Speaker 3: stars like Soto Julio, but we have more depth throughout

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Speaker 3: our lineup. So actually, I'm surprised to see that I

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Speaker 3: projected the USA out as well as I did. I

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Speaker 3: think our base running defense is going to be huge

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Speaker 3: throughout the World Baseball Classic.

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Speaker 1: Our depth as well.

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Speaker 3: And one thing I want to add since we're talking

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Speaker 3: about it, we talked about the rule changes on our

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Speaker 3: Payoff Pitch podcast.

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Speaker 1: The spring training.

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Speaker 3: Rules that you're seeing the rules for the new Major

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Speaker 3: league season, those will not be implemented during the World

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Speaker 3: Baseball Classic. Shifts are still allowed, extra time between pitches,

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Speaker 3: all of the things that you're accustomed to seeing from

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Speaker 3: previous years. These games are gonna be slow and long,

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Speaker 3: lots of pitching changes, so just be prepared for that.

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Speaker 3: But I think all these players being accustomed just shifting

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Speaker 3: aggressively as well. I think the USA USA Baseball game

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Speaker 3: introduce shifting more aggressively than the other leagues did, so

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Speaker 3: I think we get an advantage there. On top of

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Speaker 3: that USA relative to their group. Though, you know, I

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Speaker 3: do make us the number one team. I have Venezuela

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Speaker 3: or Venezuela is in the group d D. Yeah, I'm sorry.

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Speaker 3: So we we have a big advantage over our pool

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Speaker 3: because I have Mexicosa, Mexico, Canada, Columbia.

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Speaker 1: Great Britain.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have Mexico eighth, Colombia fourteenth, Canada twelfth, and

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Speaker 3: then Great Britain seventeenth and basically dead on arrival. But

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Speaker 3: the gap between USA and the rest of our pool

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Speaker 3: here is pretty substantial. I don't make us less than

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Speaker 3: basically a sixty five percent favorite and every game, and

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Speaker 3: that's assuming Julio Arias would start again and US if

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Speaker 3: we played Mexico, and I would have us above eighty

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Speaker 3: percent against Great Britain and you know some of the

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Speaker 3: lesser teams in this group. So I wouldn't necessarily lay

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Speaker 3: minus four under it on us to win the group,

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Speaker 3: but there could be potential value there. We're likely closer

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Speaker 3: to eighty five or ninety percent than we are eighty percent.

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Speaker 3: We should smash this group. The problem is once we

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Speaker 3: get to the semifinal, the quarterfinal, semifinal final, we're going

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Speaker 3: to have to beat the other top three teams, likely

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Speaker 3: in succession in Venezuelated, American Republic and then Japan. So

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Speaker 3: that is where it gets difficult for us, is after

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Speaker 3: we qualify beyond the pool round, we probably have.

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Speaker 1: To beat the top three teams in a row in

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Speaker 1: Pool D.

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Speaker 2: Much has been made of this excellent Dominican Republic lineup

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Speaker 2: at minus two fifty to win the pool.

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Speaker 1: You look up and down, You're like, wow, this.

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Speaker 2: Is a pretty pretty incredible cast of characters here, Devers, Machado, Segura, Pena,

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Speaker 2: Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Nelson Crue.

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Speaker 1: I mean, go up and doubt.

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Speaker 2: Now. Vladimir Guerrero Junior did opt out. He will not

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Speaker 2: be participating for the Dominican Republic, and another notable Miguel

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Speaker 2: Rojas for Venezuela, also opted out just a couple of

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Speaker 2: days ago. That's important to note when you consider your decisions.

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Speaker 2: And of course vlad is a big name, but here

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Speaker 2: you got the d R at minus two to fifty.

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Speaker 2: Venezuela Puerto Rico not too far behind. Is there any

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Speaker 2: way you could fade the Dominican Republic?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I like Venezuela in this group. Is Venezuela rosters stacked.

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Speaker 3: They have a lot of pedigree, championship pedigree. I mean

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Speaker 3: you talked about Acunya, ALTV, Salvi, Perez three, the top

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Speaker 3: four hitters in their lineup, all of rings. Their pitching

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Speaker 3: depth is really good too. So there's basically four teams

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Speaker 3: that I project as if you played out a full

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Speaker 3: season with these twenty teams in this field, there's four

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Speaker 3: teams I would expect to finish with winning records. In

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Speaker 3: Venezuela would just get in there at above five hund

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Speaker 3: because they can compete with the DR Japan and Team

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Speaker 3: USA over a long stretch. They have a lot of depth.

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Speaker 3: They have more potential infield depth than some of these

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Speaker 3: other teams around them, which I think is really interesting

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Speaker 3: because they can mix and match pieces. Even losing Rojas

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Speaker 3: not an issue for them. He probably found out he

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Speaker 3: wasn't gonna play because they have a lot of depth

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Speaker 3: on this roster. I like their pitching depth quite a

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Speaker 3: bit as well. They don't really have that ACE level

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Speaker 3: talent or those super duperstar level talents like your Soto's

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Speaker 3: in their lineup. I mean, Andres Himine has put up

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Speaker 3: like a five or six one season last year.

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Speaker 1: He's a great player. Acuna is a great player.

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Speaker 3: They just don't necessarily have in their pitching staff the

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Speaker 3: level of the potential aces that team USA or the

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Speaker 3: DR does. I think it's more a bunch of number

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Speaker 3: two number three type starters. So I think they're a

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Speaker 3: very solid team. I think they're very much going to

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Speaker 3: be in the mix. I should mention Puerto Rico as well,

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Speaker 3: projects very well. I have them as the sixth best team,

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Speaker 3: and there's the tier of the top four teams with

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Speaker 3: the US, Japan DR in Venezuela, and then I have

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Speaker 3: a second tier with Korea and Puerto Rico, where I

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Speaker 3: think those teams are serious contenders, they're just not quite

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Speaker 3: as good as the other teams around them. And then

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Speaker 3: also you think about Puerto Rico, they have a lot

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Speaker 3: of good teams they would have to beat. They have

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Speaker 3: to be two teams that are better than them in

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Speaker 3: their group. Even though I make them the sixth best team,

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Speaker 3: So they have the fourth and third best team in

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Speaker 3: their group. They would probably have to get through the

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Speaker 3: number one team if they wanted to advance in the quarterfinals,

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Speaker 3: then likely beat the number three year two team again

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Speaker 3: in the semis, and then beat the number two team

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Speaker 3: in Japan in the finals. So it's just an absolute

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Speaker 3: mess for Puerto Rico their path not only to get

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Speaker 3: to the next round, but then to qualify winning three

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Speaker 3: straight days. I don't love their pitching depth. I think

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Speaker 3: they can qualify. I just don't think they can go

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Speaker 3: all the way and win the title, and I don't

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Speaker 3: see them winning their group necessarily. But Venezuela, I think

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Speaker 3: ken pull the upset. The difference here between Venezuela at

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Speaker 3: four to one and Korea at four to one is

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Speaker 3: that Korea is in a two team group. Venezuela, to me,

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Speaker 3: is in a three team group with the Adminakern Republic

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Speaker 3: like in Puerto Rico, where those games are going to

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Speaker 3: be slightly more competitive. So I make the dr about

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Speaker 3: a fifty five percent favorite on average for over Venezuela,

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Speaker 3: make them sixty percent over Puerto Rico, and I would

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Speaker 3: make a Venezuela about fifty.

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Speaker 1: Five percent over Puerto Rico.

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Speaker 3: So it's those three teams for me everybody else, they

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Speaker 3: should be seventy percent favorites or moreover.

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Speaker 1: I think it's an interesting group.

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Speaker 3: But just like I said, compare that plus four to

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Speaker 3: one with three teams versus plus four to one with

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Speaker 3: two teams, and that's why I prefer Korea is a

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Speaker 3: But right, so if you.

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Speaker 2: Have Venezuela at fifty five percent against those opponents, then

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Speaker 2: that's why you're saying plus three eighty.

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Speaker 1: There's value there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's that I would have had forty five percent

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Speaker 3: against the American Republican and then fifty five percent against

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Speaker 3: Puerto Rico, so that the difference between those three teams

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Speaker 3: is in drastic I do prefer Venezuela amongst the three,

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Speaker 3: and then I would make them, you know, seventy five

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Speaker 3: percent against Israeli, eighty percent against Nicaraguo. So those games

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Speaker 3: they should be safe. But when they play, they need

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Speaker 3: to be Puerto Rico and then they need to have

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Speaker 3: a chance to upset Venezuela or upset to Republic. I

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Speaker 3: certainly think they do, and I think on top of

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Speaker 3: that they have a chance to win the tournament as well.

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Speaker 3: They're outrights at around twelve to one and eleven to one.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a solid bet. I would just prefer

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Speaker 3: their pool stage bet at four to one instead of

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Speaker 3: they're outright.

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Speaker 2: Okay, before we get out of here, let's do some

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Speaker 2: outright discussion project some of these semi final matchups and

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Speaker 2: how you might find yourself giving a path for one

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Speaker 2: of these longer shots to take home the World Baseball Classic.

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Speaker 2: Just from some history here, Japan won this tournament six

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Speaker 2: and nine DR and thirteen USA and seventeen. As I said,

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Speaker 2: they didn't have this in twenty twenty one, so they're

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Speaker 2: finally getting this back together two week tournament as we know.

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Speaker 2: So that's important to note though, because of the pitching

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Speaker 2: and resting guys, And we talked about Japan, if they

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Speaker 2: could go on a run, they've got three horses that

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Speaker 2: could lead them there. Dominican REPUBLICA plus two to ten,

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Speaker 2: Team USA plus two sixty, Japan plus two to eighty.

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Speaker 2: But first map out for US, some semi final possible

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Speaker 2: matchups that you could see and why you could convince

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Speaker 2: the people as to why. But there is value on

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Speaker 2: a longer shot.

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Speaker 1: Play for an outright winner.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so Korea and Japan, I would make favorites over

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Speaker 3: any of the teams that they would potentially face in

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Speaker 3: that quarterfinal, the crossover matchups potentially with that Cuba group, Italy, Netherlands, Panama, Chinese, Taipei.

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Speaker 3: I would make Japan at least sixty percent over any

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Speaker 3: of those teams. I make Korea a round fifty five

386
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Speaker 3: percent over any of those teams. So I mentioned that

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Speaker 3: I like Korea to win their group potentially over Japan

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Speaker 3: either way. I think they're going to qualify because that's

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Speaker 3: a two team group. And then on top of that,

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Speaker 3: I like their outrights because their path goes through a

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Speaker 3: team where they're going to be favored, likely Japan again,

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Speaker 3: and then they're in the final and you have a

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Speaker 3: ticket that's twelve to one or eleven to one. So

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Speaker 3: Japan's outrights not bad. On top of their pool bet.

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Speaker 3: Obviously I set it prefer their pool bet, but that

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Speaker 3: is how I see the left hand side of the

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Speaker 3: bracket playing out. Is likely a matchup and a rematch

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Speaker 3: between Japan and Korea in the semifinals. I have those

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Speaker 3: as the second and the fifth best teams in the tournament,

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Speaker 3: and then in the other half of the bracket with

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Speaker 3: Pool C and Pool D, which is Team USA's group

402
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 3: and the Dominican Republics group. The likely semi final matchups

403
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Speaker 3: here involve Team USA against Venezuela most likely, unless they're

404
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Speaker 3: able to upset the Dominican Republic. I would make USA

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Speaker 3: around sixty percent against Venezuela, So again another reason to

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Speaker 3: like Venezuela because I would suspect that money line is

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Speaker 3: going to end up being just the touch higher, probably

408
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Speaker 3: closer to plus two hundred depending on the pitching matchup.

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Speaker 3: So I think going in pre tournament you're probably I

410
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Speaker 3: mean you could place a rollover once you get to

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Speaker 3: that stage. You could just bet their group rights or

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Speaker 3: their their pool odds pre tournament, and then once you

413
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Speaker 3: get to the quarterfinals just sort of money line roll

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Speaker 3: over them from game to game. But pre tournament I

415
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Speaker 3: think they're a solid bet as well on top of

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Speaker 3: their pool odds. Again, same rage as Korea. I do

417
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Speaker 3: make them a better team though I have is the

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00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,320
Speaker 3: fourth best team in the tournament, and then the other

419
00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 3: half would likely be the Dominican Republic going against Mexico, Colombia, Canada,

420
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Speaker 3: Great Britain. They should smash those teams. The DR has

421
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 3: an easier path to get to the finals just because

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00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 3: their their quarterfinal matchup is going to be significantly easier

423
00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 3: than ours is, and I still expect them to qualify

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Speaker 3: as one of the three best teams from their group.

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Speaker 3: So looking at the finals, your most likely finals Japan

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Speaker 3: versus USA, I would make USA around minus one thirty

427
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Speaker 3: five in that matchup. I would make Japan around minus

428
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Speaker 3: one or plus one ten against the Dominican Republic if

429
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Speaker 3: that were the matchup, and basically with Venezuela, I think

430
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Speaker 3: Japan would be around a minus one ten favorite. If

431
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Speaker 3: you get a Korea in there, obviously you bump up

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Speaker 3: those percentages just the touch depending on the matchups, but

433
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Speaker 3: as I mentioned throughout, Venezuela, Korea your value teams. I

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Speaker 3: also like Italy around four to one to win their

435
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Speaker 3: group as well. Keep saying group it is a pool.

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Speaker 3: Use the same groups for World Cup, and then on

437
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 3: top of that, the outrights would be Korea and Venezuela

438
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 3: in the same price range. I make them the fourth

439
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 3: and fifth best teams. I think they get to the

440
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 3: next round, and I don't mind their past once they get.

441
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 2: There, all right, excellent. Are you going to consume a

442
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 2: lot of this? Like do do you watch a lot

443
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 2: of this?

444
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:19,679
Speaker 3: It's you know, the times are gonna be difficult, So

445
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,000
Speaker 3: like the pool starts Tuesday night at eleven PM, and

446
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 3: then the games are gonna go all through the morning.

447
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 3: So if you were betting CPBL with me, KBO with

448
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 3: me throughout the pandemic, we were accustomed to watching baseball

449
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 3: at these times and betting baseball at these times. I'm

450
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 3: gonna be careful though. You know, again, a lot of

451
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 3: these teams I don't have substantial data on, or data

452
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 3: that I'm too comfortable with. I did my best to

453
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 3: project these out. I feel pretty comfortable with where my

454
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 3: projections came out relative to the odds. But just because

455
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:49,880
Speaker 3: I say a team is going to be minus one

456
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 3: fifty in this game, doesn't mean I would put one

457
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 3: hundred percent certainty behind that projection like I would with

458
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 3: my MLB projection. I canna be more careful look for

459
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 3: particular spots. But certainly this is a really exciting ornament.

460
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 3: And I think the fact that we miss one not

461
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 3: for the best reasons, obviously, but the fact that we

462
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 3: miss one just adds more excitement onto this one.

463
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 2: Hey, fifth World Baseball Classic begins on Tuesday, thanks to

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00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,679
Speaker 2: Sean Zarillo. If you are a fan of baseball, we

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00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 2: do have Action Networks major League Baseball betting podcast Payoff Pitch.

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00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 2: You can find us there for division previews as well

467
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 2: as the preseason preview that was very well done by

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00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: Zarillo and Colin witch Church breaking down some of the

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00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 2: rule changes. So plenty of baseball coverage coming to you

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00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 2: from Payoff Pitch as the Major League Baseball season the years.

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00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 2: Enjoy the World Baseball Classic, everybody for Shonzillo. Brendan glas Sheen,

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00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 2: thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast presented by Fandom.

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00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler