1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:06,080 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the most wonderful time of the year 2 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: for getting in on all of the hoops, football, and 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:10,879 Speaker 1: hockey action at Draft Kings Sportsbook. In the season of giving, 4 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:13,840 Speaker 1: We're being gifted college football and basketball, Pro football and 5 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: basketball and pro hockey too. Almost twenty four to seven. 6 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: So many games every day, so many opportunities to place 7 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 1: your first bet. Try betting on something simple like picking 8 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: a team to win. Go to the Draft Kings sportsbook 9 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: Gap and place your bet. 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Bonus bets expire one hundred and 28 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible 29 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: gaming resources to dkang dot co slash b Ball. All right, 30 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,919 Speaker 1: welcome to hoops tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody, 31 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:40,240 Speaker 1: help all of you guys are having a great week. 32 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 1: Just have a quick show for you this morning. Since 33 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 1: we only have one game last night, we're gonna go 34 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 1: over my predictions for the first round of the Inn 35 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: season tournament off the Top. Obviously, tomorrow and Thursday shows 36 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: will be breakdowns of those games. We're probably gonna do 37 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 1: some film in those shows as well. But today we'll 38 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: be doing some predictions and then a bunch of you 39 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,559 Speaker 1: guys drop some really good mailbag question and the YouTube 40 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: comments yesterday. We're gonna hit some teams, but there's also 41 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,559 Speaker 1: a lot of big picture basketball concepts that you guys 42 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: brought up, so it's gonna be fun to kind of 43 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: get into the weeds of the bigger concepts that make 44 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: this league work. We're gonna hit that mail bag that 45 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 1: we'll be out of here for the day, and then, 46 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: as I said, we will be breaking down the Ncason 47 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: Tournament games starting tomorrow. You guys know the joke before 48 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 1: we get started, and subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. 49 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me 50 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: on Twitter at underscore JCNLTS. You guys don't miss ow announcements. 51 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: Don't forget about our podcast feed. Wherever you get your 52 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: podcasts on our Hoops Tonight, don't forget. It's also helpful 53 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: if you leave a rating and a review on our 54 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: podcast feed. We also bran new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, 55 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: and Facebook for the Hoops Tonight channel where we're releasing 56 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,160 Speaker 1: more content. Make sure you guys follow us there and 57 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: then keep dropping mail bag questions and those YouTube comments. 58 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 1: We'll have another mail bag like we always do on 59 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: Friday towards the tail end of this week and the last, 60 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: but not least, Before we get started, I want to 61 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: talk to you guys about game Time. They have the 62 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: best ticket buying experience in my opinion. I've used them 63 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: many times in the past. I highly recommend you guys 64 00:02:57,639 --> 00:02:59,519 Speaker 1: check it out. And as fun as it is to 65 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 1: watch the sports that we watch at home, there's nothing 66 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: like being there in person, especially when it comes to 67 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:07,399 Speaker 1: concerts in comedy shows. So let's get up and let's 68 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: get out and see a show. This year, game Time 69 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: has an incredibly user friendly experience. You can check out 70 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: in as few as two taps. You know exactly what 71 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 1: you're spending because they have all in pricing, and you 72 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,000 Speaker 1: get a view of your seat within the apps, you 73 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 1: know what you're getting with your money. They also have 74 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: an awesome new feature called game Time Picks where they 75 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 1: curate the feed. Instead of clicking on an event and 76 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: seeing just thousands and thousands of tickets, you can see 77 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: the best deals from that particular event, so that you 78 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 1: can be in more efficient in your hunt for the 79 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: best available ticket. Take the guess work out of buying 80 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: tickets with game Time Picks. Download the game Time app 81 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: and create an account and use code Hoops for twenty 82 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 1: dollars off your first purchase terms apply again. Create an 83 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: account and redeem code Hoops. That's hoops for twenty dollars off. 84 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: Download game time today? What time is it? Game time? 85 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So four games. I'm 86 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: just gonna get the first rounds and then we'll react 87 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: to the later rounds as they come. Milwaukee over. You know, 88 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: Milwaukee's just playing really well right now. When Orlando's down 89 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: their two best players. The game is in Milwaukee, so 90 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: no need to get too much further into that one. Obviously, 91 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,880 Speaker 1: Orlando has an athleticism advantage on the perimeter, but I 92 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: don't think it'll be enough to make up for it, 93 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: especially playing in front of that home crowd. I also 94 00:04:16,680 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: think that Milwaukee, similarly to the Lakers last year, after 95 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 1: an uneven start to the season, can stamp a level 96 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: of legitimacy to their you know what, they've accomplished to 97 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 1: this point to mid December by winning this in season tournament. 98 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: I think they should go for it. I talked about 99 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: this a little bit with Kevin o'connory yesterday. I went 100 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 1: on his show, and I just I think the Ncason 101 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 1: Tournament's awesome. My favorite team, the Lakers, aren't even in 102 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: it this year, and I'm still super excited for it. 103 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 1: I think anytime, as a competitor, you have an opportunity 104 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 1: to compete for an accolade like this, that you should 105 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: go for it. I think it's revealing and who you 106 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 1: are as a competitor. I think it's revealing and how 107 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: serious you are as a basketball team. I think everybody 108 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:56,279 Speaker 1: should be trying to win this thing, and I think 109 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 1: Milwaukee's really going to try to go after it. Dallas. Okay, See, 110 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: this game is basically a coin flip in a single 111 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 1: elimination type of setting. That's the other thing I want 112 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: to say off the top here, Like this is single elimination, 113 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 1: anything can happen. The Celtics, who won the championship and 114 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: the Lakers were both in the n Season Tournament last 115 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: year and the Lakers ended up winning the whole damn thing. 116 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: No one thinks the Lakers are better than the Celtics, right, 117 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: So in single elimination there's more you're at higher risk 118 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 1: of variables knocking you out, so anything can happen. I'm 119 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: just giving you my best predictions, right, But again, for 120 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: a game like this, I think Dallas is I think 121 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: Dallas when OKAC doesn't have Chet, is a slightly better team, 122 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: and so that is an advantage in Dallas's favorite. But 123 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: the game is being played in Oklahoma City, so this 124 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: could really go either way. I think I'm gonna go 125 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:46,119 Speaker 1: with Dallas. Though OKAC has struggled with rim decisions against 126 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,520 Speaker 1: them in the past, they have a lot of advantages 127 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,360 Speaker 1: in this particular matchup, especially on the offensive rebounding front 128 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 1: as well as that rim protection. So in the coin flip, 129 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: I will take Dallas and Atlanta New York should be 130 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 1: a fun one. Atlanta's playing really good ball and they 131 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: beat the Knicks earlier this year. But I also think 132 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 1: New York has a defensive gear that they can get 133 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: to in a big game, specifically that is better than 134 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 1: they've shown this year. And when the chips are down 135 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: and both teams are at their best, I think the 136 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 1: Knicks are a little better on defense and I think 137 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,840 Speaker 1: they're a lot better on offense. So I'm gonna go 138 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 1: with the Knicks. I think Golden State Houston. I think 139 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: Golden State's a better team than Houston, and I think 140 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,599 Speaker 1: they're capable of going in there and strangling Houston's offense, 141 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 1: but that crowd is going to be crazy and Houston 142 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 1: is going to play super hard, so I kind of 143 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: view that game as another coin flip, but I'll go 144 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: with Golden State at this point. So again, I think 145 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: New York and Milwaukee should both relatively easily dispatch of 146 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: Atlanta and Orlando. Atlanta game might be a little closer, 147 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: but I think the Knicks will win. And then Dallas 148 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: OKAC and Golden State Houston. As by virtue of the 149 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: Western Conference and its depth of talent, I think both 150 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: of those games are basically coin flips, but I'll go 151 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: with Dallas and Golden State for now, and then I'll 152 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: give my predictions on the later round games when we 153 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: get to them. All Right, a lot of really good 154 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: questions from you guys today. Let's get into it. Hey, Jason, 155 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: I'm sure you're tired of MAVs fans in your comments, 156 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: but something I've noticed is that Luca is playing more 157 00:07:02,200 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: off the ball. It looks to be a real development. 158 00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,159 Speaker 1: At least a quarter of the way into the season, 159 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: he's at much lower usage rate than usual, and especially 160 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: since he's coming back, and it looks back to MVP 161 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: candidate form, He's been averaging a thirty point triple double 162 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: on a thirty percent usage rate, which is the lowest 163 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: of his career since his rookie season. Also, the percentage 164 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: of his shots that are unassisted that sixty six percent, 165 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: which is down from it being between seventy eight and 166 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: eighty six percent in twenty twenty one to twenty twenty four. 167 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: Not saying he's Steph Curry or anything, but I can 168 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 1: do to try and slow the change of narratives of 169 00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: him being a selfish ballhog. Lol. First of all, that's 170 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: I appreciate you going into the trouble of doing all 171 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 1: that research. This is something that I've noticed with the 172 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: eye test, just periodically throughout the season, just a little 173 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: bit more using Luca off the ball, not just as 174 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 1: like a guy to run action, but as a screener. 175 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: He's coming off in advantage situations a lot, a lot 176 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 1: of like seals around the elbow where they're trying to 177 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 1: generate rim protection with his size fighting for position rather 178 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 1: than trying to do it off the dribble coming off 179 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: of off ball action, rather than having him just dribble 180 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: into a ball screen We're gonna talk a little bit 181 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: further about this in a warrior's question that we have. 182 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: I think it's two questions down the list, but like 183 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 1: there's this obsession with the idea that like it's like 184 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: motion offense or like spread pick and roll, and it's like, really, 185 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: motion offense includes a lot of the same concepts of spread, 186 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 1: pick and roll, just in a design that is supposed 187 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: to keep everybody involved. And so like, you can still 188 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: be Luca and be what makes Luca great without needing 189 00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: to dribble the ball off the floor slowly into a 190 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 1: ball screen every single time. And so they're still gonna 191 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 1: do that. Like, I don't think Dallas needs to ditch 192 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: that look. I think that's a valuable look, especially when 193 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: you're trying to strangle the pace of games. But it's 194 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:41,319 Speaker 1: good to be able to do both. You want to 195 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: be able to be like, hey, we're a little stagnant, 196 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 1: this isn't working. Let's go to more of our ball 197 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: and player movement stuff. Or it's like, hey, we got 198 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: a matchup. We really like, let's just keep spamming this 199 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: because Luke is killing this guy. You know. Having the 200 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: ability to go back and forth is going to be 201 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: the path to the promised Land for the Dallas Mavericks. 202 00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,599 Speaker 1: This is the only troll we're responding to today, and 203 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:01,079 Speaker 1: it's not because these a troll. It's just because I 204 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: want to clarify something that I have to periodically clarify 205 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: because people don't pay attention to some of the criteria 206 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,719 Speaker 1: that I release earlier in the season. Not having the 207 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: Knicks in the top ten of power rankings when their season, 208 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: when they're season long, net rating and record are at 209 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: the top of the league. They are the best offense 210 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 1: in the NBA, and their recent stretch has been elite. 211 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: This is just bad analysis. So again, our power rankings 212 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: are not intended to be contender rankings or just a 213 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: clear in a vacuum set of who the best teams 214 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: in the regular seasons have been. It is a opportunity 215 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: for us to shine a light on teams who are 216 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:35,719 Speaker 1: playing well as of late. So it's kind of like 217 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:39,960 Speaker 1: a combination of like three factors, like one, who's having 218 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: the best regular season? Two, who's been playing the best 219 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 1: in the in like the last two weeks or so. 220 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,599 Speaker 1: In three, Hey, here's a team we haven't had a 221 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: chance to talk about in a little while they're kind 222 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: of up for debate around that nine to ten spot. 223 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:55,719 Speaker 1: Let's get him in there right. So, like, that's kind 224 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 1: of the purpose of my Power rankings. I understand that 225 00:09:58,200 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: that's different than a lot of people do, but to me, 226 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 1: I want to have that Power Rankings list be an 227 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: opportunity for us to celebrate teams that are playing good 228 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: basketball in the regular season, even over small bursts sometimes 229 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 1: so at the bottom of the rankings. This week, the 230 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: Miami Heat were team that I wanted to shine a 231 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: line up. We hadn't talked about them a lot. I 232 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 1: had watched a few of their games in the previous week. 233 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: They'd been playing better basketball. I wanted to shine a 234 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: light on them. The other team that the teams that 235 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: were kind of like fighting for that nine to ten 236 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: spot for me were like the Knicks the Warriors in 237 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: the Heat. The Warriors have eight wins against teams that 238 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: are five hundred or better and the Knicks have five 239 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 1: wins against teams that are five hundred are better. That 240 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 1: was what gave Golden State the edge for me, and again, 241 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: I just wanted to shine the light on Miami. New 242 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 1: York is considerably higher than that in my contender rankings, 243 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: which are strictly meant to reflect my belief on who 244 00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: has the best chance to win a championship. So again, 245 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna periodically do that after Monday shows, just 246 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 1: to remind people that we have a criteria in a 247 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: system that we use here and just for the people 248 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:00,040 Speaker 1: that missed it earlier in the season. Next question, I 249 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 1: don't have Warriors use pick and roll more often? Seems 250 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: like when they stick to Steve Kerr's motion offense, they 251 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: get bogged down and can't generate anything. When they stick 252 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: to simple pick and roll, it seems like everything opens up. 253 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: We saw this in their win versus the Rockets, heavy 254 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:16,080 Speaker 1: pick and roll with Kamina and Wiggins, then their loss 255 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 1: versus Minnesota motion offense return, then in their win versus Minnesota, 256 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:21,920 Speaker 1: back to more pick and roll. Am I missing something? 257 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: Is Steve Kerr missing something? Thinks Love the show? This 258 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,199 Speaker 1: is something that I've seen a certain segment of Warriors 259 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 1: fans complaining a lot about over the last couple of years, 260 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: and I really think it's silly and frankly kind of 261 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: a misunderstanding of a basic basketball principle, which is that 262 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: which is what I talked about earlier when we were 263 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 1: talking about Dallas in the motion offense. If you have 264 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: a guy like if you have a five out setup 265 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 1: and you got Draymond at the top of the key, 266 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:50,679 Speaker 1: and you have let's call it Brandon Pajemski on the 267 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: right wing and Steph Curry in the right corner, and 268 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: you're running your flow from side to side, you're thinking 269 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,480 Speaker 1: of it as a motion offense, a bunch of guys moving, cutting, screening, 270 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: blah blah blah. Yes, but at its core it's the 271 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 1: same concept of what's happening in a pick and roll. Right. 272 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 1: In a pick and roll, Steph brings the ball up 273 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 1: the floor, gets a screen, hopefully gets his defender and 274 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: trail position, hopefully brings the big up to the level 275 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,080 Speaker 1: of the screen so that he can hit the guy 276 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:20,679 Speaker 1: slipping to the basket. If they don't show at the 277 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 1: level of the screen with a screen defender, then Steph 278 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: can come off and look to shoot right. So that's 279 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: the advantage of the of the pick and roll. There's 280 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: one other advantage as it pertains to deal with dealing 281 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 1: with top locking in denial, but which we'll get to 282 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: that in just a second. But if you zoom in 283 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: on a motion offense. If Brandon Pajamski runs down in 284 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: screens in like a Chicago action for Steph coming out 285 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: of the corner, and it flows into a dribble hand 286 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,959 Speaker 1: off with UH, with UH Draymond Green at the top 287 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: of the key, it is still fundamentally the same concept. 288 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 1: Steph's defender in all likelihood is going to be trailing 289 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 1: him over the top of the screen. Draymond's defender is 290 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: going to show at the level of the screen. Draymond 291 00:12:57,760 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: is going to slip out of it. So even though 292 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 1: it's a chicag I Go action instead of a spread 293 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: pick and roll, the same fundamental concept of a two 294 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: man game is taking place. It's actually technically more of 295 00:13:07,520 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 1: a three man game because you're setting a screen for 296 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 1: Steph before at the beginning. So like let's look at 297 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: the Warriors split cuts. Okay, you make a post entry 298 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 1: to Draymond, then Brandon Pajemski makes the post entry Steph 299 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 1: Curry's at the top of the key. Pajemski sets a 300 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: screen for Steph coming off towards the ball handler to 301 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 1: try to get him a look or the opposite of that. Right, Well, 302 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 1: let's talk it through. Steph's defender probably going to chase 303 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,960 Speaker 1: Steph in a lock and trail right his defender screens 304 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: for him when he's his teammate screens for him. That 305 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: screen defender is likely going to show on Steph, and 306 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: if they botch that, there's an opportunity to slip for 307 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: the screener. Again, fundamentally, the exact same concept that happens 308 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: in a pick and roll. It's just happening within the 309 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,839 Speaker 1: flow with everybody involved. So this is where it gets 310 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 1: a little more complicated. When you're running Steph off ball. 311 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 1: There are downsides. Those downsides tend to be things like 312 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 1: being really handsy and holding Steph top blocking, meaning like 313 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: STEP's in the corner and he's getting ready to come 314 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 1: off of that Chicago action. What if his defender just 315 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 1: literally sits on Steph's top side so that he has 316 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: no choice but to backcut into the lane. Right, Like, 317 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: there are a denials, physical off ball defense. All those 318 00:14:19,120 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: sorts of things can disrupt the motion offense, right, But 319 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: the same can be said about the pick and roll. 320 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: So the idea would be, Okay, they're denying Stephan the ball, 321 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: we're having trouble getting him the ball in the motion offense. Okay, 322 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,280 Speaker 1: let's get him the ball in the back court and 323 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: have him dribble up the floor into a ball screen. Okay, 324 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: now he has to navigate ball pressure. That adds a 325 00:14:40,680 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: layer of fatigue on the ball as Steph has to 326 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: navigate ball pressure up the court. You think the same 327 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: team that would top block and grab and hold and 328 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: be super physical with Steph off ball, it's just going 329 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: to let him dribble the ball seamlessly up the floor 330 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: into action. No, they're probably going to ball pressure him 331 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: be physical the same sort of issues, Right, And there's 332 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: also a downside that with that, which is the rhythm 333 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: of the flow of the entire offense. If Steph runs 334 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 1: that Chicago action and he comes off and it's not open, 335 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 1: there's all of these counters and additional layers to it 336 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 1: so that they can keep flowing from side to side. Right, 337 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: in the event that you're just running spread, pick and 338 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: roll every time down the floor, you're basically admitting that 339 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 1: no one else is going to be in rhythm. You're 340 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: basically admitting that this is now the step show. Whereas 341 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: if you're trying to make sure that you have some 342 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: consistent contributions down the roster. Everyone's got to get touches, 343 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: everyone's got to get opportunity. And by the way, the 344 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: last time in the playoffs I saw them lean super 345 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: heavily into ball screens. If you remember, it was in 346 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: that Lakers series in the second round. That was a 347 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: series where they didn't get any consistent contributions down the roster. 348 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 1: Klay Thompson in particular, really struggled in that series, in 349 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: large part because the Warriors just went to a lot 350 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: of spread, pick and roll. Now that team was so 351 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: damaged offensively down the roster, with how much Clay was struggling, 352 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: with how much Jordan Poole was struggling, that may or 353 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: may not have been their best option in that specific situation. 354 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: There was also some game plan stuff the Lakers were 355 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: doing that was disrupting it. But the point is Steve 356 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: Kerr wants to stick with the motion as much as 357 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: possible because one, fundamentally, it's the same concept as a 358 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 1: ball screen, it's just coming out of real ball in 359 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: player movement. And two, it provides the best opportunity to 360 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 1: continue to keep everyone involved. I would also argue that 361 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: the motion offense generates a lot of really easy shots 362 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 1: in a way that kind of flies under the radar. 363 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: How many times a game do you see Steph just 364 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 1: sprint from under the basket out to the perimeter and 365 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: the guy who's guarding his screener is just standing why 366 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: or the guy who is guarding a screen or just 367 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: goes with Steph and the screeners just standing wide open 368 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: under the basket. That happens like five or six times 369 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: a game. Like that's ten to twelve points that you're 370 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 1: getting every game by running the motion offense. Like any 371 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 1: sort of perceived increase in efficiency from spread pick and 372 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: roll is kind of countered by that. Now, again, as 373 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: I talked about with Dallas, you want to be able 374 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: to do both because certain situations call for it. But 375 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: there's a very specific reason why Steve Kerr is doing both, 376 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: and it's because you need to be able to do 377 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,600 Speaker 1: both in order to win a championship. And again, like 378 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: one of the things is like it would be nice 379 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,080 Speaker 1: to have a second option in those situations, so that 380 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,480 Speaker 1: you can run spread pick and roll with Steph, but 381 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 1: you could also run st a spread pick and roll 382 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 1: with the second player or two man game with those 383 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 1: two guys. It action at the top of the key, 384 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 1: just like him and Kadi used to run right. You 385 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:27,439 Speaker 1: want to be able to do both and then when 386 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: you run your motion, if you've got a second high 387 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: level threat in the motion, that increases the efficiency of 388 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: that offense there as well. Hey, Jason, obviously no stats 389 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 1: can fully capture the nuances of what leads to wins 390 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: and losses. But what would you say are the best 391 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 1: metrics that correlate with success in today's NBA huge fan 392 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:01,199 Speaker 1: of the show thinks, So, I am really really anti 393 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 1: catch alls. I have a feeling, my personal belief is 394 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,360 Speaker 1: that basketball is far too complicated to be able to 395 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: just like distill everything down to one specific number to 396 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 1: capture an entire side of the floor. There's a lot 397 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 1: of complications that are involved there, So like I look 398 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: more at some of the more some of the more 399 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: detailed data surrounding like specific basketball situations. So a five 400 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,880 Speaker 1: on five game has so many basketball battles, so many 401 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:33,439 Speaker 1: basketball situations taking place that it's too difficult to distill 402 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: down to one number. But in any one spot on 403 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: the floor, there are one excuse me, there's one or 404 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 1: two things that are happening that are less complicated that 405 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 1: are a little bit easier to quantify. That's where I 406 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 1: try to hunt down some numbers. So I'll give you 407 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: guys an example some stats that I use, So like 408 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: per possession stats. This is specifically in play types, right, 409 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: So like, for instance, like how well does a player 410 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 1: convert spot up situations? That means it's a combination of 411 00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 1: your ability to hit catch and shoes threes and your 412 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 1: ability to drive it close out and score in those situations. Right. 413 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: By the way, none of these are perfect either. Even 414 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 1: a per possession spot up a piece of data doesn't 415 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: quantify for playmaking. It doesn't quantify for what if you 416 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: catch pump, fake, beat your man off the dribble, and 417 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 1: drop it off to a guy for dunk at the basket. 418 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,199 Speaker 1: That doesn't quantify in spot up points per possession, right, 419 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 1: So that's even a flawed piece of data. But again 420 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: we're looking for data with less flaws by getting more concise. 421 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 1: So like spot up possessions, I really like it in 422 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: a shot creation situation, So like pick and roll post 423 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 1: up ISO synergy has a version of that that includes passes. 424 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 1: So it's a little bit more detailed than some of 425 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: the stuff I see with spot ups, but those are 426 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: important pieces of play type data. I even like looking 427 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 1: at play type data by location. So for instance, like 428 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: certain players are much better posting up on the left 429 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 1: block than they are posting up on the right block. 430 00:19:56,080 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: Some players, you know, have more success running pick role 431 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: in the middle of the floor than they do on 432 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:02,879 Speaker 1: the side of the floor. Like there's a bunch of 433 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: like different aspects there, and that's valuable data because if 434 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: you find out, like, hey, let's say that Palo Banca 435 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 1: is far more efficient as a post player on the 436 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:12,959 Speaker 1: left block because he can get to his left shoulder 437 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: hook in the lane. Well, okay, then we need to 438 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: make sure that we're running our offense so that we 439 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 1: get palot touches on the left block as much as possible. 440 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 1: We don't want to just be running left right, left, right, 441 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 1: left right. If he's three tenths of a point more 442 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 1: efficient per possession if we put him on the left block, So, 443 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 1: like you want to pay attention to those sorts of 444 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,159 Speaker 1: things score percentage. I talked about this yesterday. Basically, the 445 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: idea of like taking distilling efficiency down to like how 446 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,200 Speaker 1: likely are we to score on this possession? This throws 447 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 1: an extra level of value on players that get high 448 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:45,440 Speaker 1: percentage field goal percentage shots or get to the foul 449 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 1: line a lot, because again, that is more valuable on 450 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 1: a per possession or excuse me, on a single possession basis, 451 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 1: rather than the large sample. In the large sample, I 452 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,719 Speaker 1: want per possession stats, like how efficient is this guy 453 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: if I let him run five hundred pick and rolls 454 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 1: over the course of the of the season, is like 455 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 1: a secondary shot creator. Okay, well, I've got these five 456 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:07,640 Speaker 1: hundred pick and rolls that I need to give to somebody. 457 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 1: Do I want to give them to Gabe Vincent or 458 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: do I want to give them to you know, a 459 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,919 Speaker 1: guy like a guy like you know, Jalen hou Chafino 460 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 1: or or something like that. Right, Well, as I look 461 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,399 Speaker 1: at this, each guy's run one hundred pick and roll 462 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: so far this year, Gabe's been more efficient. Maybe we 463 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: lean into him a little bit more for those like 464 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: secondary shot creation opportunities, right, Like, that's the large sample 465 00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 1: points per possession stet. At the end of games, though, 466 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: when you're trying to win five or six possessions, that's 467 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: where something like score percentage is more valuable because in 468 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 1: five or six possessions. If I have a score percentage 469 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 1: over fifty percent, I can count on myself scoring two 470 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: or three buckets over that span. Whereas if I'm a 471 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 1: high per possession guy but I rely on a lot 472 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 1: of tougher three point shots, then my score percentage is 473 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 1: going to be closer to the mid thirties. And now 474 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 1: I might only get a bucket on one or two 475 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 1: of those possessions, and it kind of affects the value 476 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: there right. Defensive rating, I look at it more as 477 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 1: an indicator of overall effort and commitment to attention to 478 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: detail over the course of the regular season. There are 479 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: a lot of really good defenses that they excuse me, 480 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: there are a lot of really bad defenses that put 481 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 1: up good defensive ratings over the course of the regular season. 482 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 1: To me, that as an indicator of their overall level 483 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,240 Speaker 1: of focus and attention to detail. So I do think 484 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 1: that's important. By the way, That's why the vast majority 485 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 1: of teams in NBA history that win the title, the vast, fast, 486 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: vast majority, have top ten defensive ratings. Denver was an exception. 487 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: The vast fast majority of top ten defensive ratings, and 488 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,400 Speaker 1: the reason why is because that is an overall indicator 489 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: of how well they attack the regular season from start 490 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: to finish. Half court offensive and defensive rating, I look 491 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,360 Speaker 1: at this as a cleaning the glass stat. I look 492 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: at this one a lot simply because it is an 493 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 1: example of what happens when the game gets strangled into 494 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,120 Speaker 1: the half court, which is something that happens more frequently 495 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: in the postseason. Even bad transition defenses do a better 496 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,120 Speaker 1: job of running back in the playoffs, they can still 497 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 1: get burned in transition. I've seen teams lose series in transition. 498 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: I've seen teams win the title running in transition, like 499 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty one Milli Walkee Bucks of the twenty 500 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: twenty Los Angeles Lakers. Right, Like, there are lots of 501 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: teams that thrive in transition offensively, but half court offensive 502 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: and defensive rating is like, we're in this strangled, slow 503 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: down situation. Who's going to have an easier time generating shot? 504 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 1: So that would be a piece that I look at 505 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: points per shot on various shot types, So like I 506 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: look at like, how good is this player making a 507 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 1: float or a hook? In terms of like big guys 508 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 1: on the role, especially centers, like a center that's got 509 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: a hook shot that he can make fifty five percent 510 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,920 Speaker 1: of the time. I think that's high value. Right. Layups 511 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 1: is a big one because there's a lot of guys 512 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 1: that when they get dunks, they can make it, but 513 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:35,719 Speaker 1: when they get anything that's a touch shot around the rim, 514 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,320 Speaker 1: they struggle to finish. That's a problem. The difference between 515 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: unguarded catch and shoot jump shots versus guarded catch and 516 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 1: shoot jump shots, the difference between off the dribble and 517 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 1: face up jump shots versus catch and shoot jump shots. 518 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: Looking at all that data, I can see where specific 519 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,320 Speaker 1: players thrive as shot makers and where they have gaping 520 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,360 Speaker 1: holes in shot making where they need to improve. That's 521 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:58,360 Speaker 1: a piece of data that I like. Lineup data. This 522 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 1: is again like trying to capture that science as best 523 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 1: as you can, so like it's a every single basketball 524 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: lineup is like this intricately connected group of strengths and weaknesses, right, 525 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: and it kind of pieces together to make a certain 526 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: type of success or failure on the basketball court that 527 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 1: can be captured by lineup data. Again, never something you 528 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,240 Speaker 1: want to take a take as like a as the 529 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 1: end all be all, but it's a piece of information 530 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: you should look at oh, these guys. These three guys 531 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,600 Speaker 1: always seem to play well together. We should lean into 532 00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: that more. For the last month, we've been playing these 533 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,199 Speaker 1: three guys and they've been sucking. Okay, maybe we need 534 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: to mix it up a little bit. That's where lineup 535 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 1: data can have advantage. But again, those are just some 536 00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:42,399 Speaker 1: examples of data that I look at a lot. Last season, 537 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: Luca had the best season of his career stat wise, 538 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 1: thirty four points per game, nine rebounds almost tennisis top 539 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 1: ten steals is a league top score, but did not 540 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: get enough votes because the MAVs only finished fifth despite 541 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 1: having fifty wins in a loaded West. Just like Westbrook 542 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: when he won his MVP, with Okce finishing only sixth 543 00:24:58,000 --> 00:24:59,959 Speaker 1: in the West and Yokich went he only won his 544 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 1: second MVP with the Nuggets finishing likewise at sixth. Jokics 545 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: could probably win another one even if the Nuggets are 546 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 1: currently struggling at seventh. So does winning a lot matter 547 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: or not? As Nick Wright just pointed out a few 548 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 1: days ago, the MVP narrative criteria keeps changing. I agree 549 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 1: with Nick right on that. First of all, you guys 550 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,440 Speaker 1: have notice I periodically will mention MVP or talk a 551 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 1: little bit about MVP, but I'm not a big MVP guy. 552 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: One of the main reasons why is because the criteria 553 00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 1: has shifted so many times over the years. It's so 554 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:30,199 Speaker 1: much a narrative contest. There are like substantial chunks of 555 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:34,520 Speaker 1: the MVP voter base who legitimately just look at advanced 556 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 1: metrics or that allow advanced metrics like catch alls to 557 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: be the determining factor in their vote. I think that's 558 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: fucking insane. So, like, I distance myself from that debate 559 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,679 Speaker 1: as much as possible because it just frustrates me. I 560 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 1: tend to agree though that, like, especially when you look 561 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: at the Western Conference and actually, let's just get to 562 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 1: the next question for this, what is the lowest seed 563 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,600 Speaker 1: the Nuggets can be for Jokics to still earn his 564 00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: fourth MVP if Yokic keeps averaging a massive triple double. 565 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:02,439 Speaker 1: So the way I look at it personally, for me, 566 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 1: with MVP, it's a combination of a bunch of factors. 567 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: It's a combination of like who's playing the best basketball, 568 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,719 Speaker 1: who's the most valuable to their team, and who's playing 569 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: on the best team. So it's a combination of all 570 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,119 Speaker 1: those factors. So if you look at it, who's playing 571 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 1: the best basketball? I'm looking specifically at like just overall, 572 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: in a vacuum basketball impact, Yo Kich is dominating that 573 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,399 Speaker 1: for me right now? Okay, who's the most valuable to 574 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 1: their team? Well, jokicch Just just watch the Nuggets. It's 575 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: very clear that jo Kich is the most valuable to 576 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 1: his specific team. Like, I'm a big Luka Doncic fan. 577 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,640 Speaker 1: The MAVs have been pretty good without him this year, right, 578 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: so that's something that works against him to a certain extent. 579 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,000 Speaker 1: They have a very good roster. I think Dallas is 580 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 1: a better team than Denver. I think Dallas is a 581 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 1: better roster than Denver. I would pick Dallas over Denver 582 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 1: in a playoff series as of right now, So like 583 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 1: that's a big part of that, right, And then the 584 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 1: best team part. I think Dallas will have an edge there. 585 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,239 Speaker 1: I think they'll finish higher in the standings. Right. If 586 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 1: Luca wanted to win an MVP based on my voting, 587 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: he would need to get closer to matching Jokic's overall 588 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 1: level of impact, which right now is a thirty five 589 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: point triple double or whatever the hell it is, and 590 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 1: then he's going to need to demonstrate such a high 591 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: level of play with the MAVs that there is a 592 00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,160 Speaker 1: little bit of a drop off compared to when he's 593 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,880 Speaker 1: off the floor. He's capable of doing that. Right As 594 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: far as the Western Conference goes, though, stop looking at seeding. 595 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 1: I don't care about seeding. The West is two stacked. 596 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 1: You could be a five or six seed out West 597 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,760 Speaker 1: and win fifty games, okay, So like to me, that's 598 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: to me, it doesn't make sense to split hairs there. 599 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 1: If there's a two seed that is fifty three wins 600 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 1: and a six seed that has fifty wins, and the 601 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 1: guy who's leading the sixth seed is a better basketball player, 602 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,320 Speaker 1: who's having a better season, who is more valuable to 603 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 1: that fifty wins than the other guy is to his 604 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 1: two seed fifty three wins, I think that that guy 605 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,920 Speaker 1: who won fifty games should be the guy who gets 606 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,159 Speaker 1: the awards. So again, it's a complicated combination of a 607 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: bunch of factors. I do agree with you, though, that 608 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,360 Speaker 1: over indexing on the standings is silly when we're only 609 00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 1: talking about a couple of games in a really jam 610 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,159 Speaker 1: packed conference. I'd like your opinion on what the Nuggets 611 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:09,880 Speaker 1: should do. Is there a missing piece they could grab 612 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 1: at the deadline? Do they need better coaching or scheme 613 00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 1: on defense? I've not seen anything on the coaching slash 614 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,720 Speaker 1: scheme front. This happens with a lot of teams after 615 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 1: they start to have success, where it's like there's this 616 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,199 Speaker 1: huge chunk of Warriors fans that think Steve Kerr is 617 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:24,840 Speaker 1: bad coach. Like I just could not disagree more. I 618 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 1: think he's the second or third best coach in the 619 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 1: entire NBA. I think Mike Malone is a top five coach. 620 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,360 Speaker 1: I've seen a lot of Nuggets fans complaining about Mike Malone. 621 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,680 Speaker 1: So like, this is a typical thing that happens. It's 622 00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 1: like the burden of success, right, you've become really good, 623 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 1: you have high expectations, and then you start looking for 624 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 1: people to blame when you don't reach those expectations. So 625 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 1: I don't really go down that route as it pertains 626 00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: to the list of guys at the top of the league. Again, 627 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 1: for me, that's like kylu Eric Spolstra, Steve Kerr, Mike Malone, 628 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: Like there's a bunch of guys in that Mark Daginal 629 00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 1: there's a bunch of guys in that tier in that 630 00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 1: like top ten guy, a group of coaches where like, 631 00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,200 Speaker 1: like I think that there's gonna be a lot of 632 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,400 Speaker 1: criticism of them that's misplaced, just because their teams have 633 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 1: such high expectations. Also, even the best coaches in the 634 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,600 Speaker 1: world are gonna make decisions that are fifty to fifty 635 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,880 Speaker 1: calls that if they go wrong, could be criticized. But like, 636 00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 1: if you're in that position, you can't say that you 637 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: wouldn't make the same decision. And it's a difficult decision 638 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 1: on its face to begin with. And now you're just 639 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,040 Speaker 1: playing the results. As far as the Nuggets go, the 640 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 1: problem is is that in order to go about getting 641 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 1: real offensive reinforcements, like similar to what we talked about 642 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 1: with the Warriors, just like another reliable twenty plus point 643 00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 1: per game score, which the Nuggets have not been getting 644 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 1: because of you know, Michael Porter junior being Michael Porter 645 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,680 Speaker 1: junior and Jamal Murray just not having a very good season, right, 646 00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 1: But in order to go about getting one of those 647 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 1: higher level players, if I'm another team, I'm asking for 648 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 1: a Christian Brown or Peyton Watson in that deal, and 649 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 1: those two guys have become vitally important to making this 650 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,120 Speaker 1: whole situation work, and so with the Nuggets, their best 651 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 1: bet is continued improvement in the roster. You got to 652 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:00,720 Speaker 1: cross your fingers and pray that you mul Murray gets 653 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 1: it back together. As not to say you don't keep 654 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:03,960 Speaker 1: your eyes open on the market and if a good 655 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,600 Speaker 1: opportunity jumps you, it comes up, you jump on it. 656 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: Of course, I'm just saying it's gonna be a It's 657 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 1: gonna be a There's gonna be a lot of people 658 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,760 Speaker 1: looking to buy at the trademarket this year, and Denver's 659 00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 1: gonna have to give up a lot to get what 660 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: they want, and at this point, I think their better 661 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: option is to just hope for internal improvement. You said 662 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 1: you're not concerned with the amount of three point shooting 663 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 1: because you think defenses will evolve and guard the three 664 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: point line better. How do you expect defenses to mold 665 00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,200 Speaker 1: over the next five years to guard the three point 666 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: line better? Thanks for the content, Love the show. I 667 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 1: think it's gonna mostly come down to what teams do 668 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 1: in rotation as speed becomes more at the forefront of 669 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 1: what makes modern NBA defense successful. I think we're gonna 670 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 1: see a lot more aggression with really sharp backside rotations. 671 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 1: So in theory, even when you double team as soon 672 00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 1: as a guy, as soon as the guy who has 673 00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 1: the ball gives it up, there is a sequence where 674 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,000 Speaker 1: if you nail it in rotation, you can get out 675 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 1: of it. So for instance, if you let's say it's 676 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 1: a post up double team and there's a passer on 677 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 1: the left wing, he drops the ball to the post 678 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 1: and maybe they run a little split cut clear out 679 00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: whatever it is. Now the guy's posting on the left block, 680 00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 1: if he draws a second defender, you can set it 681 00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,000 Speaker 1: up so that the only opening is the skip pass 682 00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 1: on the weak side. And you can have it set 683 00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: up as well because there's usually a guy in a 684 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 1: dunker spot in that situation, or a guy setting a 685 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 1: pin and flare somebody around the opposite kind of short 686 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 1: corner area. If you have a good defender in that 687 00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 1: spot who's being active with his hands, it'll have to 688 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,960 Speaker 1: be a lob. If it has to be a lobb, 689 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:32,880 Speaker 1: then there's a chance to rotate. And if you're really 690 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 1: sharpening your rotations and everyone quickly spread out to where 691 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 1: they're supposed to go, the advantage can be gone, and 692 00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 1: so like whether it's a four on three and a 693 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 1: ball screen or a four on three in a post 694 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 1: up or whatever it is, I do eventually think teams 695 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 1: will get better and better and better at rotating out 696 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,120 Speaker 1: of those situations, and that will be something that takes 697 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: away shots at the three point line. And then what 698 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 1: will happen is the teams offensively that thrive are the 699 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 1: teams that stay with their ball in player movement, that 700 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: stay difficult to guard in rotation by not just standing 701 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,959 Speaker 1: in single spots and waiting for guys to close out 702 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,959 Speaker 1: at him. But again, I think most of the defensive 703 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: approach to guarding the three point line will center around 704 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 1: just really really sharp rotations and closeouts or right will 705 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 1: do a couple more. Hey, Jason love the pod. It's 706 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: my daily watch. I have a mailbag question that I 707 00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: for sure needs your take on more than any other 708 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,240 Speaker 1: analyst out there. I want your take on another POD's 709 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 1: take on Gobart's value to sum it up. The take was, 710 00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 1: defensive versatility is undervalued and rim protection is overvalued. What 711 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 1: do you think about that? I agree defensive value defensive 712 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 1: versatility is undervalued in rim protection is overvalued. What that 713 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,600 Speaker 1: means to me is like if you have a guy 714 00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 1: like Jolanbie. To me is the case study for this. 715 00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,840 Speaker 1: If Joelanbe can sit in a deep drop coverage and 716 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 1: play in the half court all night long, then he's 717 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 1: one of the best defenders in the league. But as 718 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,720 Speaker 1: soon as the game enters into a phase where there's 719 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:50,600 Speaker 1: a lot of transition play or where he has to 720 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:52,800 Speaker 1: cover ground on the perimeter, he becomes a bad defender. 721 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 1: And that's an example of like rim protection that is 722 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,920 Speaker 1: not defensively versatile and thus a weakness. That's it. I 723 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,840 Speaker 1: think Gobert is defensively versatile and is a rim protector. 724 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 1: All of my concerns with Rudy Gobert stem on the 725 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 1: offensive end of the four in his ability to ever 726 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 1: catch a damn thing around the basket and finish it 727 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 1: unless it's an easy dunk. He struggles on offense. It 728 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 1: limits the Minnesota Timberwolves. That's the criticism of Gobert that 729 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 1: makes sense to me. On the defensive end, Rudy Gobert 730 00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 1: is one of the best rim protectors in the league 731 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,160 Speaker 1: while also being one of the best guy bigs that 732 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:24,720 Speaker 1: can defend out on the perimeter and defend in a 733 00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,240 Speaker 1: bunch of different circumstances. I don't understand the criticism of 734 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 1: Rudy as a defensive player. Hi, Jason love the show. 735 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:34,440 Speaker 1: By the way, what do you think the Grizzlies need 736 00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 1: to become a true championship contender? Time and repetition At 737 00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: this point, talent is not an issue. Depth is not 738 00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 1: an issue. It's just a simple case of like John Morant, 739 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:49,680 Speaker 1: Jaron Jackson, Desmond Bain, these guys need continuity, lots of repetition, 740 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,400 Speaker 1: lots of experience, lots of big games under their belt 741 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 1: so that they can get to where they need to 742 00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:58,600 Speaker 1: get as individual basketball players to carry a team to 743 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 1: a title. Memphis all the ingredients as long as there's 744 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,320 Speaker 1: internal improvement, so that is like John ran becoming more 745 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 1: consistent as a pull up jump shooter so that teams 746 00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,320 Speaker 1: can't just pack the pain on him in ball screens. 747 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,320 Speaker 1: Jared Jackson just becoming a more reliable version of what 748 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:13,839 Speaker 1: he's been the last few weeks, which is a guy 749 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 1: that can really knock down threes and hit hook shots 750 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 1: over both shoulders against size mismatches in the post. Right, 751 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 1: Like tying all that together and then there's like a 752 00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:22,880 Speaker 1: scar tissue element, right Like I talked about this a 753 00:34:22,880 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 1: lot like failure breeds a fear of losing. A fear 754 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 1: of losing breeds better attention to detail. Better attention to 755 00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 1: detail carries you in in any sort of like adversity 756 00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,360 Speaker 1: that you have faced, the that you face in the postseason. 757 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:39,200 Speaker 1: So like, there's a lot of opportunity to to get 758 00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 1: better through loss in a lot of ways. And so 759 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: it might take two three years for Memphis with this 760 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: group to get to where they need to be. But 761 00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 1: right now, you just got to let them play, and 762 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 1: guys got to stay healthy, they got to stay on 763 00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 1: the court, and they need lots of repetition and experience together. 764 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,920 Speaker 1: Last question, why is it you consider Luca better than 765 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,799 Speaker 1: Yannis Gianna says the championship edge, multiple MVPs, Defensive Player 766 00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 1: of the Year Trophy, all NBA defensive teams, and actually 767 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,000 Speaker 1: competes on defense while being the league's leading score. Not 768 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:05,960 Speaker 1: sure there's ever been a time in the NBA when 769 00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:07,799 Speaker 1: a guy with those accolades at the peak of his 770 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,680 Speaker 1: powers isn't considered top two in the world. Luca's thirty 771 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,959 Speaker 1: slash forty point triple doubles are awesome, but that would 772 00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 1: be like putting prime James Harden over Lebron simply because 773 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,840 Speaker 1: of the offensive brilliant, brilliant, slash volumes, volume of stats. 774 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 1: In a helio centric offense, usually their teams fall short 775 00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,880 Speaker 1: in the postseason due to their awful defense. So Giannis 776 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,200 Speaker 1: is having a better season than Luca this year. It's 777 00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,320 Speaker 1: the last year. Luca had a better season because he 778 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,480 Speaker 1: came on super strong at the end, and he had 779 00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: a much better playoff run because Gianni's got hurt again. 780 00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:37,880 Speaker 1: So here's the thing, Like, Yeah, if Giannis finishes this 781 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,799 Speaker 1: season playing the way he's playing and then has a 782 00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,399 Speaker 1: more impressive playoff run than Luca, then he will take 783 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,959 Speaker 1: that spot back to me. Last year, I thought Luca 784 00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,799 Speaker 1: was better. Luca has been playing really well since he 785 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 1: came back, been getting closer to that Giannis Jokic level, 786 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: and I think he'll stay there and it'll be a 787 00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 1: more complicated debate as a basketball concept, though, simply put, 788 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,480 Speaker 1: as I've said many times, it is much easier to 789 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:03,520 Speaker 1: cover for defensive deficiencies in a star through scheme and 790 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:07,359 Speaker 1: through defensive role players and allowing your offensive superpower to 791 00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 1: carry over the top than it is to do the reverse, 792 00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,880 Speaker 1: which is to have a star that is a defensive 793 00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,839 Speaker 1: minded player, but then to try to have to cover 794 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,400 Speaker 1: for his offensive weaknesses. It's a lot harder to just 795 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 1: find a Damian Lillard like lying around somewhere for you 796 00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,359 Speaker 1: to bring in to run your offense in big late 797 00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,240 Speaker 1: game situations. Now, for the record, Giannis has been pretty 798 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,320 Speaker 1: good this year, even as an over the top shot maker. 799 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,600 Speaker 1: He's a better half court player than he's ever been 800 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,319 Speaker 1: in his career. Giannis is having a great season. It's 801 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,640 Speaker 1: December tenth, though, I'm going to wait for a whole 802 00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,000 Speaker 1: season before we start having big picture topics about who 803 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,600 Speaker 1: a player might be better. That's why we do player 804 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,200 Speaker 1: rankings in August and September and not in the middle 805 00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,439 Speaker 1: of the season. So hopefully that explains that for you guys. 806 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 1: All right, This all have for today is always to 807 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,439 Speaker 1: sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. 808 00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,120 Speaker 1: We'll be back tomorrow with a breakdown of the nd 809 00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 1: season tournament games with some film. I'll see you guys 810 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:59,240 Speaker 1: then the volume what so, guys, As always, I appreciate 811 00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 1: you for listening to and supporting Hoops tonight. It would 812 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,160 Speaker 1: actually be really helpful for us if you guys would 813 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 1: take a second and leave a rating and a review. 814 00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:08,880 Speaker 1: As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if 815 00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:10,920 Speaker 1: you could take a minute to do that, I'd really 816 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:11,680 Speaker 1: appreciate it.