WEBVTT - OPEC, Trump, UBS, and WWE 0:00:00.800 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:06.920 my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 0:00:06.960 --> 0:00:11.520 you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:15.560 with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.400 on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:21.680 at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. We're gonna get right 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:24.439 into that energy story in a big way. We're gonna 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.680 roundtable this thing with a couple of smart folks. Fernando Valley, 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.200 he's the senior an also Bloomberg Intelligence. He's been covering 0:00:30.240 --> 0:00:33.680 the oil industry for decades. He's our global view guy. 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:37.560 Mike mcglowe's senior macro strategists with Bloomberg Intelligence. Our commodities 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.920 guru joins us viafone. Fernando's here in our Bloomberg Interactive 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.240 Brokers studio. So since he's here, he's getting the gold star. 0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:47.239 You get to go first, Fernando. Opec. They surprised me. 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:50.280 I woke up this morning. I wasn't expecting a production cut. 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:52.360 What's what's going on with our friends at Opec? Plus 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:55.880 same here? It moved up the timeline. We were expecting 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:58.560 that they would do it around the June meeting, which 0:00:58.600 --> 0:01:01.000 is the presential meeting, the larger one, and they moved 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:06.360 it up to Wednesday. The rumor mill says that muhammadan Salman, 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.480 the Crown Princess of Saudi Arabia, was upset that the 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:14.360 Biden administration did not do strategic petroleumers of purchases to 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:18.040 help stabilize the prices, and so they decided to act quicker. 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:20.559 Why didn't and then that's a little outside here, why 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:23.320 haven't we built back the spr when there are a 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.920 couple of reasons. First, they had tried to time the 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:28.920 market to perfection and they didn't. And then even when 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:32.080 prices dropped below the oil price set, they did not 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:35.399 make those acquisitions because it was a pre sale of 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:38.680 the expected sales over the next ten years. They just 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.160 moved it up so they don't technically have to refill. 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.080 But it does seem like they missed a golden chance 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:48.080 to kind of time the market and create some support 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.720 for the local industry as opposed to foreign industries. Get it, Yeah, No, 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:55.800 it's it's pretty shocking that they weren't able to do that, 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.400 especially since the price fell at one point below the 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.000 level that they had set right to buy barrels. And 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:06.160 at the same time President Biden warned there would be 0:02:06.200 --> 0:02:10.080 consequences for a cut that the Kingdom put into place 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:12.840 last October, right a two million barrel a day cut, 0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:18.640 and those consequences never, as far as we know, came about. Yeah, 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:22.280 they haven't materialized to tishing. And I think one of 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:26.040 the problem is if they did make those acquisitions, they 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:28.359 would have moved the price up a little bit above it. 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:31.919 The WTI came to sixty six dollars versus a sixty 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.320 eight price, so if they were to purchase that kind 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:36.040 of level, you would have pushed it back up way 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:40.240 above seventy dollars. So it was a limited window. But 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:42.680 I think there was no real commitment, and apparently the 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.160 Department of Energy doesn't have a strategy to make those 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:48.200 purchases as are. This is what I'm gonna do. I'm 0:02:48.200 --> 0:02:50.880 gonna send Mike McLoone to the pits and just say 0:02:51.000 --> 0:02:53.800 start buying hand over fill. He's been right on his 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:58.160 his oil podcasts. How does this OPEC movement here change 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:01.880 your call, which has been these prices going down. I 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:04.239 think what Fernando said really is scary. The fact that 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:07.799 if they're going to try to raise prices as we 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:12.040 tilt towards global recession, as you just saw the ism, manufacturing, employment, 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:14.360 new orders all came out weaker than expected and below 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.359 fifty as a federal reserves tighten, as o're entering a 0:03:17.440 --> 0:03:20.280 bankering crisis, just just adds to my fear that we're 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:23.680 entering to the greatest global macroeconomic reset of our lifetime. 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:25.880 So let's look at w TR right now. It's eighty 0:03:25.880 --> 0:03:29.639 dollars a barrel. It's still down nineteen percent on a 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.000 one year basis, goals up two percent. But the key 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:34.760 thing is bouncing the upper end of the range. But 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.720 before this happened today, net positions had all been stopped 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:39.960 out because they're all bullish above a hundred. They got 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:41.920 stopped on the sixty four. The low this year was 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:44.920 sixty four. And I think the rational thing for people 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:47.000 to do now is Okay, this is a bear market. 0:03:47.040 --> 0:03:49.760 We're bouncing and to start selling again to questions how 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:53.960 that high pick kicks in, because it's there's the macro's 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.880 overwhelming and the key thing, remember Ellen, was this at opec. 0:03:57.000 --> 0:03:59.320 OPEC is always when you have surprise cuts. It's always 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:01.920 almost always consistent with bear markets. I want to hear 0:04:02.000 --> 0:04:07.160 more about your big concern there because our lifetime where 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:08.960 were you old? So you're saying this is going to 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:13.520 be the greatest, the greatest when you say global macroeconomic 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:17.160 research resets of our lifetime. So I've been writing about 0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:19.240 it for about a year. I've been tightening and printing 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:20.920 it more on headlines lately, but I had to get 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:24.520 into a gradually. It's just the classic examples of biggest 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:27.000 booms in history and the back of liquidity, and then 0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:29.000 the bus come as you take that liquidity away. Now 0:04:29.040 --> 0:04:31.440 you just look at money supply, you look at bank deposits. 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.479 Things are negative things never before just plunging in. The 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:37.400 FED is still tightening based on backward looking measures of 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:40.200 inflation that were spiked by them in the first place. 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.040 Because they didn't they waited too long and they cut 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:43.760 too much. And I'm not blaming them, but it's just 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:48.000 a classic pendulum singing swing heading the other way. In 0:04:48.080 --> 0:04:50.480 crude olt natural gas was one of the best indicators. 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:54.000 It's the number one measure of heat, electricity and fertilizing 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:56.640 this country. It's down eighty percent at two dollars, the 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.960 equivalent price in WTI is closer to forty forty five 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:02.560 the cost of production in the US. I think that's 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:04.800 where it's going. And just in the numbers, we saw 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:08.279 Printon just a few minutes ago. Manufacturing in this country 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:11.200 and a global basis is negative and central banks are 0:05:11.240 --> 0:05:16.000 still tightening. That's a classic recessionary trajectory. And if you 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:18.440 see what Anna wants is are chief economists. She said 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:20.880 her calls for a recession in Q three and now 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:25.120 she's pushing it closer. Basis point One of the reasons 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:27.800 that you would be bullish oils because a limited spare 0:05:27.839 --> 0:05:30.600 capacity at OPEC and when you cut what have you 0:05:30.640 --> 0:05:33.640 just made spare capacity, So you're really trying to put 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:35.600 in a floor to the price as opposed to make 0:05:35.600 --> 0:05:38.799 its spike. And so this is a tug of wars, 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:41.120 Mike was saying, between interest rates and the FED trying 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:44.240 to contain the overheating of the economy, and then other 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:48.440 sides like OPEC trying to steer more inflation in higher prices, 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:51.000 and so far demand seems to be winning, or like 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:54.120 lower demand. I should say, yeah. But by the way, Mike, 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:55.640 if you want to sell that book, I'm going to 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:59.160 say change global macroeconomic reset. You got to say something 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:01.360 that people understand, because I still don't know exactly what 0:06:01.400 --> 0:06:05.080 that is. If you say, you know, the greatest financial 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:08.960 crisis of our lifetime, that book I'm buying good well. 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.359 I expect to be you know, I expect to be 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.039 writing the history Sunday and leaving it right now. You 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:15.800 never really realize when you're middle of it. When you 0:06:15.880 --> 0:06:17.919 point out these facts, and if you study the history 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:22.679 of booms and busts and supplying and contraction and coming 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:24.800 on with liquidity, it's we're in one of the most 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:27.800 severe cases of liquidity contraction ever. Now. The key point 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.640 is we have a banking crisis, that's clear, and what 0:06:30.880 --> 0:06:34.560 cause that banking crisis is still Actually it's accelerating. The 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:37.279 FED raised rates just what a week ago the ECB 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:40.279 did the Bank of England. That's what's making it worse. 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:44.400 And you know, the key thing that's the trigger is 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:46.440 the stock market probably needs to go down. And good 0:06:46.440 --> 0:06:48.600 indications for that is what's happening with copper, and they 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:51.360 trade tick for tick and if the stock market can 0:06:51.360 --> 0:06:53.400 stay up, everything's fine. But I think the biggest risk 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.760 because it's more like to do what take the hint 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:58.760 of the what people say the smarter bond market, I 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.599 mean the two year note yield that and Fed funds 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:05.360 at five percent? Is not that that's a recession indication, Fernando. 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:07.720 We don't have a huge risk to the upside, do we? 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:12.280 Because what if Chinese people get in their cars in droves, 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:14.800 in hundreds of millions and drive around. What if Europe 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.520 doesn't have a recession and they continue to drive everywhere 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:20.640 and fill up their tanks. The OPAT plus companies are 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:22.920 going to be able to come to market with, you know, 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.960 cheat these production cuts as they have historically, right, they 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:30.040 can to a certain extent if everyone goes through the 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:31.760 door at the same time, and then we're probably short 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.240 because we haven't invested in the industry. And that's the 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.800 case we see in the long term why oil should 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:39.600 be higher. But we agree with Mike. In the short term, 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:43.560 the pressures on themand are just too strong that especially 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.840 with the Chinese consumer being over levered, the European consumer 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:50.760 being way too exposed to high energy prices, the US 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:55.040 consumer between high leverage and higher energy prices also struggling. 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:57.720 We see those pressures being too much in the short term, 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:01.640 and then eventually that leads even more underinvestment in oil 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:03.680 and gas, and that's when we see a supercycle for 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:06.680 commodities really taking off. Wow, good stuff. We got these 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:09.200 two guys on. Those are some superlidis. I know I'm 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:12.400 going big time here. I told you. Fernando Valley, senior 0:08:12.400 --> 0:08:17.240 annalso Bloomberg Intelligence covering the energy space for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:20.040 And Mike mcloan is Scot's down in South Miami Beach, 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:24.520 senior macro strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's our commodities go 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.040 to person. So we'll have to get those two folks 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.400 on together. We have big moves in oil like we 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:31.520 do today given the OPEC plus did even talk about 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:33.240 good going over twenty eight thousand? I know we don't 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:36.120 even get to that, but interesting stuff waking up this 0:08:36.160 --> 0:08:38.640 morning in the global energy space. We'll have more coming up. 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:46.400 This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Team Cancer Live program, 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:50.400 Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten AMI staring on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:53.080 the I Heard Radio app and the Bloomberg Business appe. 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:58.720 We're listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. Tomorrow 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:02.360 we'll be a when history will be made, when former 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:06.560 President Donald Trump will be indicted in Lower Manhattan. We 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:08.560 want to get the latest on that. We go right 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.400 to ground zero, if you will. Bloomberg's Curtty Gupta joins 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:14.720 us from downtown Manhattan to discuss the latest on the 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.360 ground there and also joined by Nick Ackerman. He is 0:09:17.559 --> 0:09:19.719 self employed the law office of Nick Ackerman. He was 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:24.080 former assistant Special Watergate prosecutor. He joins us on the phone, Cretty, 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.000 let's start with you. You're down in Manhattan. Just tell 0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:30.079 us where you are and what you're observing down there 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:34.320 as we wait President Trump's indictment schedule for tomorrow. Yeah, 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:37.200 a lot of anticipation in the air. It's interesting. So 0:09:37.200 --> 0:09:40.080 we're standing rights here outside of the New York District 0:09:40.120 --> 0:09:42.959 Attorney's office. So within the next forty eight hours, this 0:09:43.040 --> 0:09:46.000 is the spot where President Trump or former President Trump 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:49.960 is expected to be arraigned at about two pm tomorrow afternoon. 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:51.680 But look, it's going to be a really quick visit. 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:54.599 He's gonna fly out from his Marlago esteate, or is 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:57.760 at least expected to today. I want to say, in 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.319 a couple of hours stay at Trump's how we're a 0:10:00.320 --> 0:10:02.480 few blocks north from here, which I hear is packed 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:05.240 right now, only to get arranged, like I said, right 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:08.520 out here outside the District Attorney's office in downtown Manhattan 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:11.160 at two pm tomorrow, only to return again to his 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.760 moral lago state at eight fifteenth pm tomorrow. So right 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.640 now you're really seeing a lot of media presents, a 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:20.800 lot of police presidents, actually a couple of protesters as well. 0:10:20.800 --> 0:10:23.520 You can really see the anticipation here isn't just for 0:10:23.960 --> 0:10:26.720 seeing President Trump go through this historic move, but also 0:10:26.720 --> 0:10:29.640 what the fallout might be, protests, rallies. The police are 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:31.480 prepared for it. Allow, So he's going to go straight back. 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:34.240 I guess he assumes he'll be released on his own recognizance, right, 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:36.520 because usually if you're indicted, don't you don't they have 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.959 to hold you? Or I don't know, Hey, Nick, let's 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.000 let's bring you in Nick. How does this typically works? 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:47.080 What's the legal process tomorrow for former President Trump? Well, 0:10:47.080 --> 0:10:49.640 the process of the arrangement is he will go in 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:53.320 before the judge. The judge will ask him if he 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:56.360 wants to read the charges, and he can either wave 0:10:56.440 --> 0:11:01.440 the reading or not. And at that point, the judge 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:05.000 will ask whether how he pleads guilty or not guilty. 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:10.360 Most all defendants plead not guilty at an arraignment, and 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:14.200 then the judge sets bail. In this case, it's it's 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:16.840 almost a certainty that he's going to be released on 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:23.199 his own recognisance. Sometimes, if there's a situation that justifies 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:27.120 bail because the person doesn't have roots to the community 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:31.160 and as a flight risk, they would put up a 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:33.640 certain amount for bail. But I don't think in this case. 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.160 I think it's it's pretty much a dead certainty that 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:39.439 he's going to be released on his own recognissance. Nick, 0:11:39.480 --> 0:11:41.199 what do you think about based upon what we know, 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.240 which which is limited at this point, but based upon 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.480 your experience as an assistant US attorney for the Southern 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:48.760 District of New York from nineteen seventy six to nineteen 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.600 eighty three, as I mentioned, a former assistant special Watergate 0:11:51.600 --> 0:11:54.440 prosecutor from seventy three to seventy five. Based upon your 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:57.199 experience and based upon what we know, what do you 0:11:57.240 --> 0:12:00.040 think of this case here that the district attorneys of 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.360 the screen, well, we don't know what the case is, 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.920 we don't know what the charges are. The only thing 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:09.880 we really know is that they have been looking, you know, publicly. 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:11.719 That we know is that one of the things they 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:16.040 clearly have been looking at is this Pecker, David Pecker, 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:20.080 who is the head of the National Inquirer, and Donald 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:24.480 Trump agreed that the National Inquirer would keep their eyes 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:29.040 out for any kind of stories that might hurt Trump's 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:34.319 chances for election in twoy sixteen, and as a result, 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:38.120 they wound up paying off Karen McDougall, who is a 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:43.920 former Playboy playmate, and they paid off Stormy Daniels. But 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.400 part of what's going on here fits into the overall 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:51.959 theme of falsification of records of the Trump organization, for 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:55.800 which the Trump Organization has already been convicted of a 0:12:55.880 --> 0:13:00.920 criminal violation in Manhattan State Court. And so the real 0:13:01.040 --> 0:13:08.880 question is will there be other violations of falsification of records, 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:15.800 of insurance fraud, bank fraud, falsification of annual statements for 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:20.199 the Trump organization. Will that play a role in this indictment. 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.680 We just don't know at this point, and it's a 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.520 pure guesswork as to what this indictment is going to 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:31.079 look like. It could also involve actions that Donald Trump 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:33.400 has taken in the last week by putting up that 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.600 picture of him with a baseball bat and the district 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:40.760 attorney that could wind up involving other charges. There could 0:13:40.800 --> 0:13:45.320 also be witness tampering relating to Michael Cohen. All of 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:48.080 this is speculation at this point, right, Well, we're going 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:50.880 to find out tomorrow. It does remind me that Trump 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:55.920 essentially threatened death and destruction if he were indicted. Cratty, 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.480 You're standing there at the DA's office, and you mentioned 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.079 that there are a lot of people around trump O. 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:04.560 Are there security concerns? Are we worried that there will 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:08.960 be you know, busloads of angry protesters coming in from 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:12.360 out of state. Well, it definitely is the worry, And 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.600 I mean I can say that pretty confidently with the 0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:17.160 amount of police presidence here. It's not just about protection 0:14:17.360 --> 0:14:19.680 for President Trump as well. But you can see the barricade. 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.360 You're even seeing media not necessarily about to be parked 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:24.720 close side to where their cameras are parked, for example. 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:27.840 So this is definitely the preparation for that worst ye scenario. 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:29.600 But I think we also have to keep in mind 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:33.160 that even President Trump's defense team over the weekend had 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:35.520 come out on another network and said, look, we are 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:38.360 trying to avoid showmanship or trying to avoid the theater. 0:14:38.680 --> 0:14:40.840 And Nick can perhaps comment on this, but I thought 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.520 it was really interesting the way that they're talking about 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:46.320 approaching this case. They're not looking to dismiss it. They're 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.520 not looking to remove the presiding judge, who, by the way, 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:54.320 has a history of presiding against the former president President Trump, 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.240 even going as far to saying, one merchant, who of 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.920 course is the judge presiding, he hates me. And those 0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.480 are some comments, a very wrong comments made on social media. 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.800 Yet the defense team isn't actually looking to remove them 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.280 from the case. And that's all to show that this 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:11.600 is being done cooperatively, collaboratively and through the due process 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.080 of law. Hey, Nick, just want to get a sense 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.160 from you given up, there's a lot we don't know. 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:19.800 But and assuming the former president, you know, does not 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.840 plead some point at this case, what's the timing of 0:15:22.840 --> 0:15:24.760 a case like this, how would it progress and when 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:26.400 would we actually get to a trial if there was 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.560 a trial, Well, I hate to say it, but after tomorrow, 0:15:29.600 --> 0:15:33.440 it's probably going to be thoroughly boring. Um, what what's 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.400 going to happen is just like at all other criminal cases. 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:42.040 The defense is going to file motions. Um, they're probably 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:44.960 the emotions are dismissed. It could be emotion for change 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:49.720 of venue. There could be emotion for more details on 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:53.680 the complaint in the indictment. But my senses, this is 0:15:53.720 --> 0:15:58.520 going to be a very detailed indictment, unlike most indictments. 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:03.280 But there'll be the pre trial motion practice. The district 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:07.040 attorney will have the opportunity to respond. This doesn't take 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:09.840 place in a matter of days. It's going to be 0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:12.680 a matter of months as this goes back and forth. 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.800 The judge then has to decide the motions. They'll be 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:21.640 discovery where the DA's office has to provide the defense 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:25.040 with documents that are in its possession that relate to 0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:28.800 the case. So this is this could very well take 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.880 up to a year before it finally gets to trial. 0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:35.440 This is not going to happen overnight, all right, Really 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.520 appreciate getting your insight there. Nick Ackerman, he's a former 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:42.360 assistant special Watergate prosecutor and then he went on to 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.000 be the Assistant US Attorney for the Southern District of 0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:47.480 New York from nineteen seventy six to eighty three. And 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:49.440 he now has his own law office of Nick Ackerman, 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:51.280 getting his thoughts there, and of course could Gupta on 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:55.760 the ground downtown Manhattan for Bloomberg News on site at 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.640 the DA's office in Lower Manhattan. If you're listening to 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:02.040 the tape, Kens are a line program Bloomberg Markets weekdays 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.280 at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Tuna app, 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.239 Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:11.520 also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:16.240 York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. I 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:19.480 want to get to the banks here. It is grim 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.520 news coming out of Switzerland. UBS buying credit Swiss. I 0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:26.000 guess that's the good news kind of. But there's a 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:27.760 lot of redundancies there. They're going to cut a lot 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.639 of people, and that's why we go to Alison Williams, 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:34.399 Senior Global Banks Analysts. So, Alison, you saw some of 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.240 the numbers here, tens of thousands of people likely to 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.440 be let go. Here is this kind of part and 0:17:39.520 --> 0:17:43.159 parcel when you put two investment banks together, well, it is. 0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:48.640 It is generally with investment banks, especially areas where there 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:52.320 might be direct overlaps such as such as research as 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:57.119 you know, and it does seem like, you know, some 0:17:57.320 --> 0:17:58.919 of the reports I've seen that a lot of the 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:02.960 cuts could be centered in Switzerland would also seem to 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:06.760 make sense just because, um, there's probably a lot of 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:13.399 overlap in terms of systems and management administration. And again 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:16.880 it's it's it's tough to tell, and we've said since 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:19.040 the beginning of this deal, it's tough to tell sort 0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:24.120 of what the what the revenue attrition is going to 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:27.640 be from. You know, people that use both banks right 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:31.560 and that now um maybe move some of their exposure 0:18:31.600 --> 0:18:37.840 to someone else that also will reverberate with employees. So um, 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.919 So there are a lot of synergies, so to speak, 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:45.440 but I wonder if they're as bad as as we anticipate. 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:47.679 I mean, the market has been there for Credit Suite 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:51.360 and ubs. There was enough share for both players before. 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:53.800 And while I get that, you know in terms of 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:57.879 back office or you know, wealthy clients that used both 0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:02.720 to hedge their bets in a sense, um, that's an overlap, 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:05.720 But it seems like there still is enough room for 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:09.040 this big business, isn't there? Yeah, I mean it does. 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:13.480 I mean to me, it does seem a really big number. 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:15.800 Like I scratched my head a little bit about where 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:17.720 some of those will come, right, because a lot of 0:19:17.760 --> 0:19:22.639 the like asset management UM, you know, there's very complimentary products. 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:25.679 And as I said, so there's some overlap in the 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:29.639 investment bank, but that investment bank has already been so 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:33.720 dramatically downsized. I'm not sure you know what's left to 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:36.720 cut except for a couple of small areas that I mentioned. 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:40.720 You know, a lot of the uh, you know, one 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:44.080 of the compelling things that UBS ces is the ability 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:47.440 to add the US presence and the technology presence that 0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:50.200 it doesn't have a credit suitee UM, and same thing 0:19:50.200 --> 0:19:52.919 in asset management, there's some complimentary things. And then in 0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:58.160 terms of the wealth management business you know, both globally 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:02.879 and the Swiss in particular to the extent that you 0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:07.200 have a number of advisors with a number of client UM. Yes, 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:09.520 as I said, there might be some overlap and some 0:20:09.600 --> 0:20:14.359 reduction of exposures, but the headline number is really significant. 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:19.200 Little bit it is a little bit interesting to think, 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:22.239 like where those cuts are going to write. I mean, 0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:25.879 this is this is this is all according to the 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:30.360 Zontag Situngue, which is a Swiss newspaper citing an unidentified 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:34.800 senior manager at ubs. They're saying thirty six thousand jobs 0:20:35.000 --> 0:20:38.719 will roll, so eleven thousand inside Switzerland, twenty five thousand 0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.280 outside Switzerland. And this is not at all a beloved 0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:46.639 deal domestically, So you can imagine that a local newspaper. Um, 0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:50.320 you know, if it bleeds, it leads, they might want 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:52.640 to play it up a little bit just for sales. 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:56.560 I don't know, yeah, and who knows how they're coming 0:20:56.640 --> 0:21:02.360 because the cuts, the cost cutting that they've talked about, um, 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:06.160 you know, it's something like fifteen to twenty percent of 0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:10.800 the cost base. You know. Also could it be outsourcing again, 0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:14.920 like it's very hard to get to these really sizeable numbers. 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:18.600 One one could imagine someone saying, oh, well, if it's 0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:20.439 this much percent of clasts, what does that mean for 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:23.520 a headcount? But I think you know, again, it's it's 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:29.120 a very different um, you know, business and some others. Right, 0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:31.719 So it's not like a typical we're going to have 0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:35.120 we know, two branches now we're only going to have one. Um, 0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:39.359 you know, how many headcounts? How many heads you really cut? 0:21:39.400 --> 0:21:42.479 If those branches are focused on serving Mualti clients and 0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:46.240 you're bringing those people together. They're we've sort of identified 0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.320 for you where we see the areas we're cuts, but 0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:51.840 it's still hard to get to that. So Elson's big numbers. 0:21:52.320 --> 0:21:54.680 I can't think of a reason. I mean, if I'm 0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:57.840 an UBS shareholder here, I have to be really patient, 0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.280