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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up

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Speaker 2: Straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: August sixteenth. We have jumped over the middle of the

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Speaker 2: month of August. We are inching closer to the beginning

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Speaker 2: of the NFL season. I know college football fans are like, hey, Jay,

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Speaker 2: come on, give us some coverage. We will. We will

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Speaker 2: probably starting next week some college football. But today our

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Speaker 2: guest is incredible Aaron Shatz. You know him from the

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Speaker 2: Football Outsiders. He came on this podcast last year hyped

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Speaker 2: up the Eagles. I got on board, a lot of

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Speaker 2: you did as well, and it was very profitable and fun.

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Speaker 2: This season, he has some teams you're not gonna like

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Speaker 2: as much as the Eagles. I certainly do not. You

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Speaker 2: guys are gonna like Aaron Schatz. It's a lengthy interview,

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Speaker 2: a lot of fantasy football, colonels, gambling, all the fun

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Speaker 2: stuff that you guys come to this podcast for. Also,

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Speaker 2: in a tiny update, I just need to say, oh

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Speaker 2: my gosh, Leonel Messi, what he's doing for the MLS

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Speaker 2: in this legas Cup. It's just unbelievable. We already know

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Speaker 2: he's the goat. He won the World Cup what eight

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Speaker 2: months ago, MVP of the World Cup whatever they call it.

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Speaker 2: And he joined the last place Miami team and instantly

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Speaker 2: starts kicking butt and taking names. And now they are

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Speaker 2: going to the Lega's Cup Championship. Leonel Messi, I mean,

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Speaker 2: we already knew he's amazing, but like you're running out

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Speaker 2: of stuff to say about the guy. He's appointment viewing

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Speaker 2: as I have like alerts on my phone and I

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Speaker 2: don't do this for any other soccer other than my

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Speaker 2: team NAKOKSA, but like I don't do this for baseball.

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Speaker 2: I don't do this for NBA. Like you just know

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Speaker 2: when those are because they're on all the time. But

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Speaker 2: this is on Apple TV. So I have an alarm

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Speaker 2: in my phone. Hey, Messi's gonna be playing, and you

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Speaker 2: fire it up and it's like boom. Three minutes in

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Speaker 2: they score and then boom another goal and this one

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Speaker 2: from Messi, It's like whoop, that's a rap. I had

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Speaker 2: a good buddy went with his son. His son is

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Speaker 2: a big time academy player for an MLS team. I

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Speaker 2: won't say which one, and let's just say he was

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Speaker 2: not thrilled with what went down in Philadelphia. His vantage

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Speaker 2: points showed a lot of poor decisions by the Union.

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Speaker 2: Who'd I think they got shook from that opening goal?

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Speaker 2: They give up a goal three minutes in. The goalie

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Speaker 2: just looked like he, I don't really know what how

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Speaker 2: to explain that. Just a bad decision. Then he gives

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Speaker 2: up the bomb from Messi from like forty yards out.

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Speaker 2: It's just like just a very wacky game. But Messi

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Speaker 2: appointment viewing, and the championship game is coming up. I

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Speaker 2: don't even know exactly what it is. But without further ado,

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Speaker 2: let's get to our guest, Aaron Shatz, the founder of

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Speaker 2: Football Outsiders.

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Speaker 1: You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports

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Speaker 1: fans want, but for everything he doesn't.

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Speaker 2: He knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say, I know a guy who knows the

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Speaker 1: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome on to straight fire. A guy

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Speaker 2: you know well. He is one of the deans of

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Speaker 2: Football Numbers. He helps immensely with gambling fantasy. Last year

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Speaker 2: came on this podcast hyped the hell out of the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully you guys got paid. Aaron Schatz, founder of the

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Speaker 2: Football Outside are He now freelances for a lot of

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Speaker 2: different places, a lot of break things in his future. Eron,

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Speaker 2: how are you man?

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Speaker 1: Hey, I'm good, I'm real good. I'm ready for football.

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Speaker 1: August is a good time to talk football.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I believe last August you came on, you said,

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Speaker 2: look at the Eagle schedule. This team has greatness written

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Speaker 2: all over it, and they end up in the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: nearly won the damn thing. I don't think you called

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts, but then again, nobody on planet Earth had

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts. I am curious, like looking back on last year,

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Speaker 2: anything big picture jump out, teams falling, teams rising, just anything,

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Speaker 2: any macro NFL issues before we jump into this season.

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Speaker 1: I mean, not in particular. I think that what was

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Speaker 1: most interesting about last year, other than the Eagles rising,

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Speaker 1: was the Rams falling apart. And the injuries were a

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Speaker 1: big part of the Rams falling apart at Denver. Also,

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Speaker 1: by the way, injuries were a big part of their

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Speaker 1: falling apart. But also it sort of made people have

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Speaker 1: to think twice about the you know, go all in

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Speaker 1: for a Super Bowl idea because it worked for the Rams,

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Speaker 1: but it's not necessarily gonna work for everyone. And they

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Speaker 1: wrecked their bench so much that now they have no

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Speaker 1: depth whatsoever. And now their number for this upcoming season

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Speaker 1: is at six point five and you can't name any

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Speaker 1: of their secondary or linebackers. Like it's it's really interesting

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Speaker 1: what happened to them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're gonna have to win a bunch of shootouts.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's great this year, but maybe And

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Speaker 2: this is in play Aaron. They start out, say two

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Speaker 2: and five, Stafford has to miss a game, and next

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Speaker 2: thing you know, YadA YadA ya, we're tanking for Caleb

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Speaker 2: Williams and you just restart the process. So there is

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Speaker 2: the chance of that now, you know, the converse is true.

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Speaker 2: They go nine and seven, missed the playoffs, and you know,

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Speaker 2: Stafford's like, I think I'm done here. McVeigh wants a reset.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know. That's a tough The tanking topic

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Speaker 2: is a tough one. Although if memory serves, didn't the

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Speaker 2: Eagles throw a game at home, Oh Washington and it

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Speaker 2: worked out in their favor hugely. I think they ended

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Speaker 2: up with Jayalen Wattle because of it.

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Speaker 1: I don't remember exactly, No.

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Speaker 2: Not Waddle, it was the other guy, the other Alabama

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Speaker 2: skinny receiver, Davonte Smith. Davonte Smith, thank you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. They basically Doug Peterson in his last game with

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, put Nate Sudfeld in there, and basically didn't

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Speaker 1: care whether they want or not, Like I don't know

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Speaker 1: if he was throwing it as much as he just

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Speaker 1: they were like, it doesn't matter to us whether we

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Speaker 1: win or Yeah, And it is a tough subject. I

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Speaker 1: think people feel like analytics is always like tank, tank, tank, tank,

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Speaker 1: but it's not necessarily always the best thing to do.

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Speaker 1: And also, Mike Tanier points this out, you can really

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Speaker 1: only tank for one year in the NFL, Yeah, because

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Speaker 1: you're only going to get those guys on rookie contracts

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Speaker 1: for four years, five for your first rounders. You don't

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Speaker 1: want to waste two of those years tanking, Like, don't

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Speaker 1: do it for more than a year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. Let's go to I think the most

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Speaker 2: interesting team, not just because I'm a fan of them.

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Speaker 2: I know everybody knows you knows you're a Patriots guy.

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Speaker 2: But the Jets add the biggest name quarterback that move

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Speaker 2: teams Aaron Rodgers, I'm bullish. I don't know that, I'm

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Speaker 2: extremely bullish. The offensive line the biggest question, but early

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Speaker 2: returns based on what you've seen red heard on the Jets.

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Speaker 2: I know you famously say defense doesn't translate year to year.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of examples you have of that, so

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Speaker 2: there is some concern there, But the offensive line seems

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Speaker 2: like the primary issue.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the offense for the Jets, it should be better.

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Speaker 1: I mean there's no question about with Aaron Rodgers, they

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Speaker 1: should be better. And yeah, there's some offensive line questions.

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Speaker 1: We don't have them as a offense. I find their

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Speaker 1: defense much more interesting because it is a battle of

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Speaker 1: very strong trends. So the Jets, on one hand, they

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Speaker 1: have the trend where when you improve significantly from one

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Speaker 1: year to the next, you usually fall back in the

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Speaker 1: third year. That's called the plexiglass principle. They also were

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Speaker 1: really healthy last year, like really really healthy on defense,

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Speaker 1: and there's no way they're going to be that healthy again.

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Speaker 1: But they were really good despite having a very low

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Speaker 1: number of turnovers, and that is rare. Normally, defenses that

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Speaker 1: are really good have a lot of turnovers, and the

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Speaker 1: Jets didn't and by the way, this is also true

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Speaker 1: of the Washington Commander's defense, and that would seem to

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Speaker 1: indicate that those defenses are going to be good again

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Speaker 1: this year because teams with low numbers of turnovers tend

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Speaker 1: to be better on defense the next year because the

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Speaker 1: turnovers come. And therefore we have the Jets. When you

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Speaker 1: balance out these different trends, we have the Jets with

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Speaker 1: the number two defensive projection. We're big believers in the

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Speaker 1: Jets defense.

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Speaker 2: Wow, can I do you think I could guess the

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Speaker 2: number one defense? Is it AFC? Yes, Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 1: It is the Buffalo Bills.

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Speaker 2: Yes, huh. It's weird because I don't like their I

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Speaker 2: don't love their defenses aging on the back end. We

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Speaker 2: don't know when von Miller is going to join the team.

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Speaker 1: Aging, but they're getting guys back. They're getting Micah Hyde back,

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Speaker 1: They're getting Tredavius White for a full year. They added

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Speaker 1: like Leonard Floyd, they added like what's the name of

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Speaker 1: the defensive tackle used to be in Seattle Puniford. They

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Speaker 1: added a lot of stuff.

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Speaker 2: So you like the Bills a lot winning the AFC

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Speaker 2: East time assuming.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Bills. I like the Bills a lot. In fact,

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Speaker 1: we'll get to it, but the Bills are actually my

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl pick out of the age.

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Speaker 2: This is just a killer. We're off to such a

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Speaker 2: bad start, the Buffalo Bills Super Bowl. So okay, let

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Speaker 2: me outline this. Well. We'll start with the question why

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Speaker 2: did Josh Allen throw so many red zone interceptions? I

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Speaker 2: think he tied for the league leader and led the league.

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Speaker 1: My guess is that it's just random variation. I don't

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Speaker 1: think he sees things wrong in the red zone or

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Speaker 1: anything like that. I think it was just a year

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Speaker 1: of random variation. You know, like why did he fumble

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Speaker 1: on the one yard line? Same thing right.

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Speaker 2: Against the Vikings? Yeah, yeah, against the Vikings. Yeah, but

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Speaker 2: that was just a one off. I mean, I think

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Speaker 2: he had to like nine red zone turnovers.

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Speaker 1: My guess is it's just random variation. He's not like,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't throw a ton of interceptions, and the fact

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Speaker 1: that so many of them came in the red zone

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Speaker 1: is probably just random chance.

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Speaker 2: Remember when Patrick Mahomes was lighting the league on fire

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Speaker 2: and then everyone went to the two was it the

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Speaker 2: two deep safeties? And Mahomes like had to settle for

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Speaker 2: underneath stuff and he wasn't really clicking and he hit

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Speaker 2: a rough patch. Are teams now in like, what is

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Speaker 2: this year three of Josh Allen dominant's starting to see

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Speaker 2: some things and tweak it and maybe that led to

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Speaker 2: the issues in the red zone.

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Speaker 1: Maybe. I mean, you know, teams know that he's really

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Speaker 1: good and they'll and we know that the wide receiver

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Speaker 1: corps is not the biggest strength of that team, right

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Speaker 1: Gabriel Davis had that one playoff game and we all

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Speaker 1: thought he was gonna blow up last year and it

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Speaker 1: didn't happen, And now people feel like Gabriel Davis is

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Speaker 1: sort of a below average number two, and the three

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Speaker 1: might be Trent Shurfield and it might be Khalil Shakier,

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Speaker 1: who's a talented guy. But we'll see what happens. And

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Speaker 1: they're gonna use a lot of Dalton Kincaid, but he's

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Speaker 1: a rookie, and we know rookie tight ends tend to struggle.

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Speaker 1: But mostly, I mean, we have Buffalo's defense number one,

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Speaker 1: so even if their offense isn't quite as good as

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Speaker 1: it has been in years past, our numbers really like Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's a little bit of I just don't

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Speaker 1: feel like picking Kansas City every year involved with that, right,

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Speaker 1: because we have them kind of neck and neck at

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Speaker 1: the top of the AFC. But I mean, I do

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Speaker 1: feel like Josh Allen has proven himself good enough that

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Speaker 1: one of these years he's going to get one, and

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Speaker 1: this is the year he has the defense to do it.

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Speaker 1: And they better do it this year because their cap,

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Speaker 1: like you said, there is a little bit of agent

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Speaker 1: going on and their cap situation is very bad for

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Speaker 1: last for twenty twenty four, So this is the year

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Speaker 1: Buffalo does need to do it.

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Speaker 2: So one of the things with Buffalo, let me ask

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Speaker 2: this again. I don't have the data, but the Buffalo

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Speaker 2: Bills last year faced garbage two Jets quarterbacks Mac Jones,

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Speaker 2: I guess twice unless Bailey Zappy throw in one of

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Speaker 2: them and then two of for one game which they lost,

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Speaker 2: and then the other one I think was the backup

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Speaker 2: didn't the face Skyler Thompson in the playoff game. So

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Speaker 2: they had like seven games against quarterbacks in the division

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Speaker 2: who were good except for one game against two, and

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Speaker 2: I mean they lost that game as like twenty one

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Speaker 2: to nineteen. Wacky game.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it's going to be harder this year, the

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Speaker 1: four hardest, the four hardest schedules in the NFL by

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Speaker 1: our projections, are the four AFC East teams.

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Speaker 2: How does that work?

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Speaker 1: Well, first of all, they have to play each other, right,

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Speaker 1: and they're all average or better. Right, the Patriots are

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Speaker 1: average and everyone else is better than average. And then

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Speaker 1: if you look at their schedules, they play the NFC East,

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Speaker 1: which has of course Dallas and Philadelphia, which are good teams,

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Speaker 1: and they play against the AFC West right, which is

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Speaker 1: a good division with the Chargers and the Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: the you know, the Broncos are not terrible and the

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Speaker 1: Raiders are not terrible. So like, the Patriots have the

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Speaker 1: hardest schedule in the league, and two, three and four,

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Speaker 1: I don't remember what order, but two, three and four

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Speaker 1: are the other AFC East teams.

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Speaker 2: So you like to look at the schedules and you

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Speaker 2: have this ability to find out which team's schedule based

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Speaker 2: are going to be good. Who is there a team

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Speaker 2: or two that you think are willing to pop this year.

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Speaker 2: We had a couple guys on the pod who have

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Speaker 2: talked about the Falcons and their numbers moved in Vegas

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Speaker 2: and the Saints obviously same Division, playing weak opponents anyone

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Speaker 2: else that jumps out at you as a as an

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Speaker 2: inferior schedule.

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Speaker 1: The Packers have an easy schedule, but nothing like the

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Speaker 1: Falcons and the Saints. The Falcons in the Saints have

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Speaker 1: the easiest schedules in the league by our projections, with

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Speaker 1: a big gap between them and everyone else. And I

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Speaker 1: don't know if the number has moved in Vegas, but

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Speaker 1: last time I checked, Atlanta wasn't getting quite the respect

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Speaker 1: that New Orleans is getting. And I think that Atlanta's

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Speaker 1: defense can improve with the players they've added, and those

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Speaker 1: teams can be neck and neck. So I really like

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Speaker 1: the idea of going over eight and a half on

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Speaker 1: Atlanta with the idea that Atlanta and New Orleans will

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Speaker 1: be neck and neck. And don't be surprised if two

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Speaker 1: NFC South teams make the playoffs over teams that are

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Speaker 1: better than them but have harder schedules.

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Speaker 2: Did the Minnesota Vikings qualify.

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Speaker 1: There as a team that's better than them? Or you

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Speaker 1: know our numbers if you remember from last year, our

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Speaker 1: numbers hated the Vikings like I remember, Yeah, their year

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Speaker 1: last year was the craziest, wackiest year ever. They ended

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Speaker 1: up twenty seventh in DVA despite being thirteen at four,

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Speaker 1: and then they went and lost talent in the offseason, right,

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Speaker 1: No more Patrick Peterson, no more Zadarius Smith, no more

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Speaker 1: Adam Thielen, no more Dalvin Cook. So we actually, I mean,

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Speaker 1: do not expect them to be a good team this year.

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Speaker 1: I like them as an under. They're what eight and

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Speaker 1: a half in Vegas. I like them to go under that.

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Speaker 1: I just think they're just not good. Our base numbers

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Speaker 1: think they're just a bad team.

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Speaker 2: Sticking in the division. I like the Bears a lot,

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Speaker 2: perhaps irrationally, so I'm gonna be going to Vegas soon

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Speaker 2: and they're one of the teams I'm looking at the over.

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Speaker 2: It's not just about the spending in the off season.

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Speaker 2: I think that division took a major hit when Rogers leaves, obviously,

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Speaker 2: but also, like you said, the Vikings, they weren't good

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Speaker 2: last year, thirteen and four. You can say it all

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Speaker 2: you want, but like they're not great. And then the

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Speaker 2: Detroit Lions, Aaron, you know, I might be wrong, but

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Speaker 2: weren't they one of the worst defenses in the league

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Speaker 2: last year?

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Speaker 1: Like we think, I know, defense, they'll improve a little

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Speaker 1: bit on defense, and be kind of average, and.

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Speaker 2: The offense was good. But you know, we had a

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Speaker 2: guy on to weeks ago saying how they played like

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Speaker 2: sixty five percent of their stats trailing, and yeah, your

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Speaker 2: offense is gonna look good when you're chucking and ducking

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Speaker 2: because you're always down by two touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, our numbers tend to adjust for that.

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Speaker 1: I'm not high on Chicago, honestly. We have their defense

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Speaker 1: as one of the worst in the league, although it's

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Speaker 1: a little better now that they signed in Gockway and

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Speaker 1: Justin Fields. I don't think people understand what a bad

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Speaker 1: passer he was in his first two years. And yes,

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of reasons for that, Like I

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Speaker 1: absolutely understand all the reasons, like he was in a

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Speaker 1: bad situation in a bad scheme, and he had no

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Speaker 1: receivers and a bad offensive line and all that is true,

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Speaker 1: but he was really, really bad and takes a ton

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Speaker 1: of sacks. And the fact is he's gonna have to

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Speaker 1: improve dramatically, Like he's gonna improve, but he has to improve,

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Speaker 1: like by a lot, a lot, a lot for them

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Speaker 1: to beat that seven and a half, unless their defense

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Speaker 1: is much better than I think it is.

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Speaker 2: Is you know, giving Eberflus or not giving him enough

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Speaker 2: credit defensively. I really liked what he had done in Indy,

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Speaker 2: did a lot with a little And this is kind

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Speaker 2: of they've had a couple of years now where they've

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Speaker 2: they've got to churn out some of what didn't work

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Speaker 2: and got the right guys in there. Does that stuff matter?

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Speaker 2: You can't put a number on it. But does that

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Speaker 2: stuff matter to you at all?

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Speaker 1: That's the problem. Yeah, you can't put a number on

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Speaker 1: it because Eberflus has only had had one job before this, right,

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Speaker 1: and yeah, he did well in that job. But it's

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Speaker 1: not like you have a sample size of Eberflus's defensive

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Speaker 1: coordinator in like eight different places like you have with

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Speaker 1: Wade Phillips, where you can go, oh, well, when Eberflus

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Speaker 1: comes along, you know, his defenses always turn around in

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Speaker 1: year three or whatever. And the fact is the defense

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Speaker 1: was very bad last year. I think it may have

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Speaker 1: been the worst defense in the lead by our numbers.

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Speaker 1: And then you know they've added some pieces, but it's

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Speaker 1: still the Bears defense does not look good.

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Speaker 2: I mean they dropped, didn't they trade Roquan and then

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Speaker 2: I mean they couldn't stop. They were giving up like

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Speaker 2: thirty five points every week after that or something insane.

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Speaker 2: I do read a lot of your stuff, and one

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Speaker 2: of the teams that is still a mystery to me

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Speaker 2: is the Cleveland Browns, and a lot of people are

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Speaker 2: just automatically writing them off because of last year with

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Speaker 2: Watson didn't look great and for some reason, I think

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Speaker 2: Vegas has them at nine and a half, and then

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Speaker 2: you look at the schedule. The division's tough, and I'm like,

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Speaker 2: what does Vegas see that we don't? Can you illuminate

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Speaker 2: what the heck's going on with the Browns that maybe

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Speaker 2: you know everyone else is in the sea.

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Speaker 1: We see it. In fact, believe it or not, we

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Speaker 1: actually have the Browns as our favorites in the AFC North,

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Speaker 1: even though the Bengals, or even though the Bengals come

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Speaker 1: out as a better team.

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Speaker 2: Brown's ahead of the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Because they have an easier schedule than the Banks. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: here's so on offense, it's really a question of sample size, right, Like,

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Speaker 1: what do you believe three years of Kevin Stefanski running

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Speaker 1: a good offense with bad quarterbacks and a whole career

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Speaker 1: of Deshaun Watson being really good or six bad games

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Speaker 1: last year, Like sample size dictates that you have to

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Speaker 1: believe in the last two or three years of these

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Speaker 1: guys as telling you more about how good they are

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Speaker 1: than that crappy last six games that they played last year.

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Speaker 1: And then defensively, we liked it to approve they've picked

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Speaker 1: up guys like Shelby Harris and Dalvin Tomlinson and jan

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Speaker 1: thorn Hill and they've added talent and you know, their

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Speaker 1: defense should be better. So we have them like right

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Speaker 1: on the cusp of the top ten on both offense

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Speaker 1: and defense. So they're going to be a good I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to be a good all around team unless,

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Speaker 1: like Watson really is as bad as we saw last year,

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Speaker 1: and I just it's hard to believe that he's really

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Speaker 1: that bad given what he'd done in his career before.

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Speaker 2: I feel like that the same thing was said about

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Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, although he's obviously a lot older than Watson,

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Speaker 2: But how long was Watson out? A year and a half? Yes,

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Speaker 2: is there any historic precedent for someone missing that much

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Speaker 2: time under the age of like thirty one years old

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Speaker 2: or whatever and coming back right.

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Speaker 1: No, there's very little precedent for anybody missing that much

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Speaker 1: time and coming back at all. Oh, there's really like

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Speaker 1: not a lot of quarterbacks. Quarterbacks don't miss a year

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Speaker 1: and a half or a year and two thirds like

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Speaker 1: when they're in their twenties. It just doesn't There just

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Speaker 1: isn't arn't historical similarities. Watson's really his own thing.

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Speaker 2: Uh, you mentioned the defense. I'm just trying to think

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Speaker 2: other than Garrett and I guess Ward, is it the scheme?

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Speaker 2: Is it the defensive coordinator? Because isn't there aren't they

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Speaker 2: a little devoid of talent on the defensive side.

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Speaker 1: No, No, lots of little talents that they added Za

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Speaker 1: Darius Smith and Shelby Harris and Dalvin Tomlinson and Juan

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Speaker 1: Thornhill and like Rodney McCloud, like, they added a lot

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Speaker 1: of like little like, oh here's a little bit of

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Speaker 1: an improvement, and here's a little bit of improvement. Here's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of an improvement. But they added a

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Speaker 1: lot of them, like in a lot of places. I mean,

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Speaker 1: three fourths of the defensive line is going to be new.

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Speaker 2: Hmmm. So the secondary that what they get. The guy

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Speaker 2: from Chiefs got a guy from the Eagles so they're

404
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Speaker 2: basically getting team players from winning teams and hoping they

405
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Speaker 2: can plug and play and raise the level. Hmm. I'll

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Speaker 2: have to rethink it aaric because I irrationally like the

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Speaker 2: Steelers in that division.

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Speaker 1: We like the Steelers too, I mean, we got that

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Speaker 1: whole division averaging nine wins or more. It's the hardest

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Speaker 1: division in the league.

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Speaker 2: Wow. So is it the Steelers the offense or the

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Speaker 2: defense that's the question mark?

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Speaker 1: They both come out as kind of average, even with TJ.

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Speaker 2: Watt.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean their defense. I mean their defense comes

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Speaker 1: out as a little bit above average and their offense

417
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Speaker 1: comes out as like a little any bit bit above average. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: even with TJ. Watt because I mean, first of all,

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Speaker 1: you don't know if he'll be healthy all year because

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Speaker 1: he's had injury things. Right, they don't have like a

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Speaker 1: ton of other like you know, there's Fitzpatrick, but they

422
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Speaker 1: don't have a ton of other guys where you're like, wow,

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Speaker 1: that's a real needle mover. But they also don't have

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Speaker 1: like a lot of holes, like they just look like,

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Speaker 1: you know, a reasonable defense. I mean defense is harder

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Speaker 1: to predict than offense. So I'm more likely wrong about

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Speaker 1: this than I am. Kenny Pickett will be average. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but also we think Kenny Pickett will be averaged. So Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 1: you know, Pittsburgh has an average schedule and it should

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Speaker 1: be a slightly above average team. So we have them

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Speaker 1: averaging nine point three wins in our simulations and that's

432
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,440
Speaker 1: last place. That's last place the Peace.

433
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 2: So that means the Ravens are above nine point three.

434
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,399
Speaker 2: So they're the trickiest team for me to handicap. You've

435
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:33,240
Speaker 2: got a college offensive coordinator coming to Lamar Jackson who

436
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: now has the most weapons he's ever had, or the best,

437
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 2: I guess. But the defense has taking a massive step back,

438
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,239
Speaker 2: and it's almost as if they're taking a page out

439
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs Playbokay, we're just gonna have to outscore people.

440
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 2: Defense doesn't matter in the NFL, right now. Let's hope

441
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 2: we can, you know, patch things up and just win

442
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 2: with Lamar Jackson putting up you know, video game numbers.

443
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 2: Does that seem to be the game plan? And how

444
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:53,520
Speaker 2: do you feel about Monkin?

445
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I think their defense, you know, their defense

446
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 1: needs a lot of people to step forward, like the

447
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 1: young edge rushers, but offense I mean, you know, all

448
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 1: indications are. It's not as much what do I think

449
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 1: about Mounkin as much as what did I think about

450
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,160
Speaker 1: Greg Roman? Right? Oh, because I think new offensive coordinator

451
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 1: comes in and your expectation has to be that he'll

452
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 1: be average. But I think a lot of people who

453
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: I trust to our film study people feel that Greg

454
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: Roman had gotten very stale and therefore just to improve too.

455
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: We don't know how good a coordinator this is is

456
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: an improvement, and obviously the wide receivers there's an improvement,

457
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: and they've got a good offensive line. So I think

458
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 1: that their offense can be good and their defense can

459
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 1: be average. And remember with the Baltimore you always have

460
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,360
Speaker 1: to give them a little bit of credit because special

461
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,880
Speaker 1: teams is widely variable, but not for Baltimore. It's always

462
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 1: good for Baltimore.

463
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 2: What do the forget? What I think? What do the

464
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 2: numbers say? In the NFC? Mostly because it feels top

465
00:22:54,960 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: heavy Eagles, Niners, and Dallas, I don't totally understand who

466
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 2: the third best team in the NFC is. And oh,

467
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,199
Speaker 2: by the way, yes I just said brock perty who

468
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 2: as a whopping eight starts under his or nine starts

469
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: under his belt and it was the seventh round pick.

470
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 2: Is like the second best team in the NFC.

471
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, well we have Dallas. Dallas actually is our number

472
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 1: one team in win projections what year in the league.

473
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 1: In the league, we actually have Dallas a little bit

474
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 1: ahead of Philadelphia because Kansas City and Buffalo have harder

475
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: schedules than the NFC teams do. Right, So that's how

476
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: Dallas and San Francisco end up with the highest win projections.

477
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: Dallas has been really good for two years. Like, yeah,

478
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: the playoff losses have been bad, but the regular seasons

479
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: have been good. And that's a much larger sample to

480
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: learn from two regular seasons than two bad playoff losses.

481
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 1: I mean, are there questions about Mike McCarthy taking over

482
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: the play calling. Yeah, I mean there's nothing in the

483
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 1: projection system for that, but we know those questions are there.

484
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, even if you think Philadelphia is

485
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: better than Dallas, there's no question the big three in

486
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: the NFC is Philadelphia, San Francisco, in Dallas.

487
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 2: All Right, So let's go back to Dallas, because you

488
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: said that they've been really good for two years. But

489
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 2: at the outset of the podcast, when we were talking

490
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,199
Speaker 2: about turnovers, like the Jets defense doesn't create turnovers and

491
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 2: they were awesome. Didn't the Cowboys create like among the

492
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 2: most turnovers in the league the last two years. And yes,

493
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, what if that doesn't happen, Does

494
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 2: dan Quinn maybe not have as good of a defense.

495
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's no question about it. Like that is factored

496
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: into our defensive projection. And we still really like the

497
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: Dallas defense. But there's no question that, Like our defensive

498
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: projection assumes they are gonna drop in turnovers. But if

499
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 1: they drop a lot in turnovers, that's a big problem.

500
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 1: But they've played well overall, Like when it comes to

501
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 1: yardage and stopping third downs, they've been good at those

502
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: things too. It hasn't just been takeaways for them.

503
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 2: And is and again this is just feel But doesn't

504
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 2: it feel like in the last two years Dallas has

505
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 2: really squashed the bad teams. And then and when they

506
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: step up in class, it's a big struggle, and dak

507
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 2: somehow loses the game because.

508
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: I believe they don't step up in class until January.

509
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 2: Well that's the thing. So it's a schedule thing without okay,

510
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: because in the playoffs, I think they lost last year

511
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 2: to Brock Purty, two years ago to Jimmy Garoppolo.

512
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: Right, yep, and.

513
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott's a much higher paid quarterback, led the league

514
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 2: in picks last year. Was that a random thing? Or

515
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 2: was that like, listen, hey, this is who he is.

516
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 2: He's just an average eleven to eighteen quarterback in the league.

517
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I think Dak Prescott is better

518
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: than that. And again, the general gist of analytics is

519
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 1: not to take away too much from one or two games.

520
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: Trust what you've seen over a larger amount of games,

521
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: even if those one or two games are playoff games.

522
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 1: And you know, I've talked about this a lot this

523
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: offseason when I've been on various shows having to do

524
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: with the Bills. But it also applies to the Cowboys.

525
00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,640
Speaker 1: That history is filled with good teams that couldn't get

526
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 1: over the hump in the playoffs until the year they did.

527
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 2: Right.

528
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: There's nothing that says Dak Prescott isn't like Peyton Manning.

529
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: I'm not saying he's as good as Peyton Manning, but

530
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: the same idea of struggling in the playoffs and then

531
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,439
Speaker 1: you know, one year, he's just one year he's just

532
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 1: gonna do it, or Josh Allen might have might be

533
00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 1: that guy. So like, I think the larger sample of

534
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 1: how good Dallas has been and Dallas was number one

535
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,000
Speaker 1: in our numbers in twenty twenty one and they were

536
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 1: number six last year, number six last year, I think

537
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 1: that those larger sample sizes tell you more about how

538
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 1: good Dallas is. And then remember they went out and

539
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: added talent in the offseason. Right, they have Brandon Cooks now,

540
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: so they're better at second wide receiver. They have Stefan

541
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: Gilmour now so they're better at second cornerback.

542
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 2: Wow, maybe I'm underestimating Dallas again something you can't quantify.

543
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:53,879
Speaker 2: But when when the head coach opens his mouth and

544
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 2: says something like, hey, Kellen Moore wanted to light up

545
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 2: the scoreboard, you want to we want to run the

546
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 2: ball and rest our defense, Like, Eric, can you factor that?

547
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:03,640
Speaker 2: Or he's just like.

548
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 1: I think he's lying, but I guess green Bay. Green

549
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 1: Bay never did that. McCarthy's teams were never run first teams. Like,

550
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: first of all, Dallas already ran a lot last year,

551
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 1: so it's not like they're gonna run that much more.

552
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,479
Speaker 1: And his green Bay teams were pass first teams, and

553
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,640
Speaker 1: I think he's I think he's lying. I think it's

554
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: just coach speak.

555
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 2: So someone had looked at it and said that his

556
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 2: team's played at a slower pace, and then Lafleur is

557
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 2: doing the same thing in Green Bay, and I just wonder,

558
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 2: does a slower pace You're right, it doesn't have to

559
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 2: mean running. But I don't know. You tempo was what

560
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 2: the best teams in the league do offensively, right, the Bengals,

561
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:45,959
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, the Bills, the Eagles. Right. It just seems

562
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 2: antithetical to what is happening around the league. And I wonder,

563
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 2: like Brian shot Nheimer's a figurehead. You know, he's just

564
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 2: gonna bully him and say whatever he wants. I don't know.

565
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 2: Are we gonna see a heavy Deuce Vaughan and Tony

566
00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 2: Pollard run game from the Cowboys this year?

567
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with you about the I agree

568
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: with you about the pace. I think being a slow

569
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: pace is not good. And they'll run a lot because

570
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: they're going to be ahead a lot, that's the thing.

571
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 1: I think They're going to be ahead in games, so

572
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: there will be plenty of runs. Look, you want to

573
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 1: ask me. Do I trust Mike McCarthy when playoff time comes?

574
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: I mean my Dallas. Dallas may be the number one

575
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,120
Speaker 1: team in our win projections, they're not my super Bowl

576
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: pick in the NFL okay, because I don't quite trust

577
00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:29,679
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy. But overall, this is a team that has

578
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: been really good in the regular season for two years

579
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: and there's no reason to believe they won't be really

580
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: good in the regular season. Again, that's fair.

581
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 2: So your super Bowl final four, who do you have

582
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 2: in the conference championship games?

583
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 1: I mean, I would think Dallas and San Francisco HM

584
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: HM and Buffalo and Kansas City.

585
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 2: Okay, well, everybody's gonna say, what what Why not the Eagles?

586
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 2: They lose two coordinators, the defense returns largely in tack,

587
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 2: some change at linebacker. I'm trying to think of their offense.

588
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, they go because you can't get back there every year.

589
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: It's not like there's anything wrong with the Eagles. I

590
00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: have the Eagles as the third best team in the NFC.

591
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: But if you're only allowing me two teams to get

592
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: to the conference championships, I'm gonna say San Francis going.

593
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 2: Dallas and some of that you admit is like, hey,

594
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 2: we can't pick Kansas City every year. You know it's

595
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: boring to pick the same teams.

596
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 1: Right, there's a little bit of why I have Buffalo

597
00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 1: winning the Super Bowl. There's a little bit of an

598
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 1: element of that because Buffalo is our number one predicted defense,

599
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: but Kansas City is our number one predicted offense. We

600
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: do know that offense is easier to predict the defense.

601
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: And Patrick Holmes is amazing, and you know you're you're

602
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: probably going to be reasonably accurate compared to other possibilities

603
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 1: if you just pick Kansas City every year until Patrick

604
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: Mahomes retires.

605
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 2: But that gets dune, okay, and we'll do some rapid

606
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 2: fire stuff here to end it. Do the Chargers make

607
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 2: the playoffs? And if not, who's their next head coach?

608
00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 1: We have them narrowly missing the playoffs, but they're definitely

609
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 1: in the mix. It's just the AFC is super hard.

610
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 2: Man. Does Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson.

611
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: He's going to be better than last year, but he's

612
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 1: not going to be Russell Wilson the way we remember

613
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 1: him now.

614
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 2: He can't be much worse. Worst team in the NFL

615
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay or the Raiders, Tampa Bay Interesting, Arizona Cardinals.

616
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: Does Kyler Murray start over under like four games? Oh?

617
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 1: Who the heck knows? If I knew that, i'd be

618
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 1: an insider, not an outsider. My guess is that he does.

619
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 1: Because they kind of need to figure out do they

620
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: draft a quarterback high and trade Kyler Murray or do

621
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 1: they keep Kyler Murray as their quarterback and use those

622
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: draft picks on other positions. Right, They're going to have,

623
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: unless something really weird happens, two very high draft picks

624
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: because Houston is not going to be good and they

625
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: have to figure out what are they doing with them?

626
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: And I think they need to know what Kyler is.

627
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 1: So my guess is Kyler comes back and plays seven

628
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 1: or eight games.

629
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 2: Oh wait a second, you said keep Kyler and spend

630
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 2: those picks elsewhere. That's yeah.

631
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: I mean I thought if they could trade down, if

632
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 1: they could trade down if they decide Kyler is is,

633
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: If they decide Kyler has enough in him that he

634
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 1: still could develop into a top six, top seven quarterback,

635
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: then maybe you trade down with one of them, use

636
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: the other one on Marvin Harrison. If you don't think

637
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 1: that Kyler can do that. Use one of them on

638
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 1: a quarterback and the other one on Marvin Harrison and

639
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: you trade Kyler.

640
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: So I mean, so Kyler got paid so well, he

641
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 2: has zero career playoff wins, he's small, he has the

642
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: coming off of major injury. Like it's easy for me

643
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 2: to sit here and say you got to get off

644
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 2: of him. But what's the market for Kyler Murray? Like,

645
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: who's trading for him?

646
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: If somebody will, somebody will, even though he's being paid

647
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: so much, because he is a starting quarterback in this league,

648
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: and he is an above average starting quarterback in this league,

649
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 1: even if that means he's fourteenth fourteenth is still above average. Yeah,

650
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 1: but I just don't know how much more than average,

651
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 1: how much more than that he is above average? And

652
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: it's hard to know with the injury, But don't I

653
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 1: wouldn't get carried away with him playing badly last year

654
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,280
Speaker 1: in half a season. The fact is he's got, you know,

655
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 1: good career numbers before that, so he's done it. Yeah,

656
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 1: he hasn't won in the playoffs, but he's done it.

657
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: Like at Tennessee Titans move on from Tannehill. They say

658
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: we're not bad enough to be drafting top five, we

659
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 2: could take Kyler, let's take them. Didn't they pick up Hopkins?

660
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: They have DeAndre Hopkins.

661
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, maybe maybe at the end of the season.

662
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 2: I'm just spitballing here, but yeah, I would move. I

663
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 2: like Kyler a lot, and then Aaron. You hear stuff

664
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 2: about the lack of doing the homework and studying film

665
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 2: and then getting the clause removed and not being loved

666
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: in the locker room Washington.

667
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 1: Not like we want to give Washington all the guys

668
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: who aren't loved in the locker room. But if Washington's

669
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 1: defense is as good as I think they can be,

670
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 1: they are not going to have a quarterback top pick,

671
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: and they'll need a quarterback badly. So there's your Kyler

672
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 1: Murray trade destination, Washington Commanders.

673
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 2: I like that. That's kind of spicy. Wait, why do

674
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 2: you think their defense is going to be great?

675
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: The same thing as the Jets. They were very good

676
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: last year despite not having a lot of takeaways. In fact,

677
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: they had fewer turnovers per drive than the Jets did,

678
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 1: so it's likely that their defense will be very good

679
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 1: again this year.

680
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 2: Hmm. And in the division they were face, they faced

681
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts. Well, they might have faced Minshew once, right.

682
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm cooking with my numbers that adjust for

683
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: adjust for you know which quarterbacks you face. But they

684
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 1: you know, they did good against good quarterbacks. They did

685
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 1: good against good quarterbacks last year. They're just their offense

686
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 1: was not good.

687
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, what are your projections say for Sam Howell?

688
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't project a fifth round player with

689
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 1: no track record to be any good. You just can't.

690
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: He's a fifth round player with no track record. You

691
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 1: have to project him to be bad. So we're projecting

692
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: him to be bad.

693
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 2: Huh, all right, I guess, oh, I guess we'll wrap

694
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 2: up last question. We didn't talk about the Bengals a lot.

695
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,480
Speaker 2: They're my Super Bowl pick from the AFC this year,

696
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 2: but you don't Maybe something in the number says not

697
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 2: great news for the Bengals.

698
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: We have their defense declining in part because of talent

699
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: that they lost in this offseason, in particular the safeties.

700
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: But they're not a bad pick. I mean there are

701
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 1: number two projected offense. And remember what I said about

702
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: offense being easier to project than defense, Like, we know

703
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,839
Speaker 1: their offense is gonna kick ass. So if I'm wrong

704
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 1: about their defense, then they'll be better than we think

705
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 1: they'll be. And they they make total sense as a

706
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,359
Speaker 1: super Bowl pick, Like, that's not a bad pick, it's

707
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:52,919
Speaker 1: just it's a tough division. Man.

708
00:34:53,680 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the only problem they'd get into the super

709
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 2: Bowl and that that division. All right, Aaron Chats obviously

710
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 2: follow him on social media. He's, uh, you do you

711
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 2: want to mention all the places you're working for what

712
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 2: you got going on?

713
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 1: Still trying to figure out the permanent home for this

714
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 1: upcoming season, but I will be announcing that shortly. So

715
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: you want to go to Ftnfantasy dot com to get

716
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: the almanac. That's where you can buy the PDF of

717
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 1: the almanac. Look for Patrick Mahomes on the cover. If

718
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: you want the physical book, you can get that at

719
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 1: Amazon thirty four to ninety nine for the pdf, thirty

720
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 1: nine to ninety nine for the physical book. Then you

721
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 1: want to follow me on both Twitter and threads A

722
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: shots NFL. So that's as Cchatz NFL. And sometime in

723
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: the next couple of days, I will figure out my

724
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 1: plans for this upcoming season. I will announce them. I

725
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: will be somewhere. It's hard for you know, people who know.

726
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 1: I've left Football Outsiders, which I founded twenty years ago,

727
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 1: which is tough to do. But I will be somewhere,

728
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 1: and Dvoa will be somewhere, and you can follow me

729
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 1: on Twitter and I will announce where