WEBVTT - Markets Wrap: From YOLO to HALO 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Marin

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<v Speaker 1>Talks Money Market Round Up, where we talk about the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest moves in markets this week and what's driving them.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Marrin Sumset, web Editor at Large for Bloomberg UK

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<v Speaker 1>Wealth and as ever, I am joined by John Ttepek,

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<v Speaker 1>senior award at Bloomberg and author of the award winning

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<v Speaker 1>money Distilled News. Let me absolutely clear for people who've

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<v Speaker 1>only joined us relatively recently, that I too have many,

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<v Speaker 1>many awards, many.

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<v Speaker 2>Awards, probably more itally.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Anyway, well listen, there's only one topic this week, John,

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<v Speaker 1>and we haven't got long today, so we're just going

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<v Speaker 1>to dive right into it. We are Yolo to Halo, right.

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<v Speaker 2>You to HELLR. This is great. Tell me what those

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<v Speaker 2>we know were your law stands for? But what does

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<v Speaker 2>HALO stand for?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay?

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<v Speaker 2>You always you only live once by? Is heavy assets?

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<v Speaker 1>Heavy assets, low obsolescence? Wish said, stop chucking this stuff

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<v Speaker 1>out at the endless acronyms anway, This one comes from

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<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan.

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<v Speaker 2>I think Halo, doesn't it? I think so now everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>Is claiming it just like everyone. Do you remember when

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<v Speaker 1>we invented the phrase physical bitcoin gold. The next thing

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<v Speaker 1>we knew everyone was using it without any approbutional that's

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening, analyst over at JP Morgan with Halo. So

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening is that people are looking around and going, gosh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're paying an awful lot for hope when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to things related to AI software companies, et cetera,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera. We prefer not to pay so much for

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<v Speaker 1>hope anymore. We've prepared birthday for real stuff. So we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to dumple that software and AI related nonsense and

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to buy oh, I don't know, mines metals.

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<v Speaker 1>Any company that can show already invested in its infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>and that that infrastructure is going to continue to work

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<v Speaker 1>long term. Is that a reasonable summary.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think that's a reasonable summary. And I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's interesting partly because it's that the market really has

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<v Speaker 2>latched onto this in the last month or so. Because

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<v Speaker 2>first we had AI you know, Anthropic releasing all of

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<v Speaker 2>those software products and really hitting some of the big

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<v Speaker 2>names very very hard. And then this weekend a company

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<v Speaker 2>called Sutrini Research to just do you know, just the

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<v Speaker 2>research notes released sort of this apopcalyptic but basically sci

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<v Speaker 2>fi scenario about how AI could trigger an economic doom spiral.

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<v Speaker 2>And certainly, regardless of whether it actually caused the cell offer,

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<v Speaker 2>if it was something else, it certainly got the blame

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<v Speaker 2>for a significant sale off on Monday. So it sort

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<v Speaker 2>of shows you how jittery everyone is about this.

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<v Speaker 1>I would I suppose it doesn't really matter in the end,

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<v Speaker 1>what sparks the sell off is it? I mean, if

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<v Speaker 1>you have an improvement for a particular group of stocks,

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<v Speaker 1>they're very expensive. In the end, they'll stop being things.

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<v Speaker 1>And it can be triggered by it pretty much anything

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<v Speaker 1>under the sun. And maybe it was triggered by this

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<v Speaker 1>note maybe not. But you know, once you once you

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<v Speaker 1>get once everything becomes more emotional than fact based, then

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<v Speaker 1>this always happens. In the run up to this, we've

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<v Speaker 1>listened to endless stories about AI which are being very positive.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the spread of AI will increase productivity across

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<v Speaker 1>the board, It will increase everybody's earnings, it will it

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<v Speaker 1>will add to the US dominance of global stock markets

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<v Speaker 1>and the global knowledge economy, et cetera, et cetera. And

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<v Speaker 1>now we find now we find that in factor, AI

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<v Speaker 1>kind of eats itself a little. And so in fact,

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<v Speaker 1>when knowledge goes from being very expensive to as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of the evolution of AI to going to be

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<v Speaker 1>from very expensive to being either completely free or very cheap,

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<v Speaker 1>who wants to be in the knowledge economy. You don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to be in the knowledge economy. You want to

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<v Speaker 1>be in the well, the infrastructure and the real stuff

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<v Speaker 1>economy that backs up the knowledge economy.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I guess it's nice the thing, because it's

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<v Speaker 2>easier to rather than what play the winners and losers,

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<v Speaker 2>you just go straight for the things that aren't going

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<v Speaker 2>to be affected or it was going to be affected,

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<v Speaker 2>because everyone needs more electricity basically. And that makes a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of sense, I mean, and that's a really good

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<v Speaker 2>point of evaluations because I was looking just before we

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<v Speaker 2>came on, you know, stocks like in UK listed stocks

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<v Speaker 2>like Experience, an l S and relics that all got

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<v Speaker 2>hit hard by the initial kind of software panic. And yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>one of the things she sort of realizes that, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>they were all trading on pees of you know, high

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<v Speaker 2>thirties and forties and you're you know, they're now down

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<v Speaker 2>sort of like twenties which is more reasonable ish, but

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<v Speaker 2>you know that those were very high multiples. So a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of it is about people going, oh, hold on

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<v Speaker 2>a minute, I'm paying this might be a good company,

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<v Speaker 2>but that is a hell of a lot to be

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<v Speaker 2>paying for it anyway. So yeah, so that point about

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<v Speaker 2>this being an excuse as much as anything else is

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<v Speaker 2>kind of very fair, I think.

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<v Speaker 1>So, John, It's postially about that. It's partially about this

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<v Speaker 1>idea that if you've relied on expensive knowledge to support

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<v Speaker 1>your valuation and now knowledge may not be as valuable

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<v Speaker 1>after all. It's partly that, but it's also about the

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<v Speaker 1>shift from asset light to acid heavy. Right. We've always

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<v Speaker 1>looked at these companies historically AMAS and Google, Meta, etc.

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<v Speaker 1>As being incredibly asset light companies. They don't have to

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<v Speaker 1>spend big money to build an infrastructure to produce their product.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not a thing, and so they've always been very,

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<v Speaker 1>very high cash flow companies. And now they're looking around

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<v Speaker 1>and going, well, actually, these are beginning to look like

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<v Speaker 1>really so asset heavy companies. They've really got to invest

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<v Speaker 1>in energy and power, and you know, there's just a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of money pouring into what comes behind the spread

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<v Speaker 1>of AI. So we've gone from asset light to acid heavier,

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<v Speaker 1>and you don't pay as much for asset heavy companies,

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<v Speaker 1>and you don't pay as much for companies that are

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<v Speaker 1>constantly having to invest as you do for companies that

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<v Speaker 1>are simply cash flow machines.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, especially because this is speculative asset investment. Ultimately, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's one thing if BP tondre and says, oh, we

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<v Speaker 2>find a lot of oil, and if we spend as

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<v Speaker 2>much and we get the oil, there's them are going

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<v Speaker 2>to make that as much money. But these guys are saying, Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>there's an uncertain amount of AI required and it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be of uncertain profitability, but we're still going to

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<v Speaker 2>splodge a trilli nod dollars on building the capacity because

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<v Speaker 2>we're pretty sure that it's going to work out at

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<v Speaker 2>some point. So that's you know, that's the sort of

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<v Speaker 2>future that I feel needs quite a high discountry applied

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<v Speaker 2>to it, and I think the market's kind awakened up

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<v Speaker 2>to that. And then I mean, and then there is

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<v Speaker 2>the deeper worry about where's all this money coming from

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<v Speaker 2>and how much of it is in the private market

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<v Speaker 2>rather than the public market. Obviously, that's not so much

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<v Speaker 2>the case for the hyperscalers, but for all the kind

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<v Speaker 2>of little companies that are on the side of this,

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<v Speaker 2>A lot of them are raising money via private credit

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<v Speaker 2>in various other ways, and it's not that clear how

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<v Speaker 2>much of that there is, or where the choke points

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<v Speaker 2>are or where the vulnerabilities are, which is, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>yet another reason to be mildly kind of wary of

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<v Speaker 2>what's going on there.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think, John, this is also partly about interest rates.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's very much about interest rates. A lot

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<v Speaker 2>of it is about I guess the market still going

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<v Speaker 2>through this wake up process of having got used to

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<v Speaker 2>being at zero percent interest rates from twenty ten up

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<v Speaker 2>to right up to twenty twenty one, starting to take

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<v Speaker 2>that for granted, and not quite realizing that the normalization

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty two was permanent. We'll not going back

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<v Speaker 2>to zero percent. And I think it's taking a good

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<v Speaker 2>few years for the market to start to really begin

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<v Speaker 2>to acknowledge that and prace it. And actually, I mean

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<v Speaker 2>this is part of the process of pricing that in

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<v Speaker 2>a higher interest rate environment, the Hope stocks, the Eyolo

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<v Speaker 2>stocks just aren't as attractive.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's just amazing how long this has taken, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I suppose we. I don't think either of

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<v Speaker 1>us really believed that the transition period, the bit when

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<v Speaker 1>people would go asly interest rates aren't going back to zero,

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<v Speaker 1>They're going to knock around three four percent, and I

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<v Speaker 1>need to change the way I invested in direct result

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<v Speaker 1>of that. I thought that would be a six month process,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's not. It's years.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's partly I think momentums are really powerful

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<v Speaker 2>fact and not also think that the longer something's going on,

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<v Speaker 2>the harder it is for pure to change the minds.

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<v Speaker 2>I think also it was happening in twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 2>but then EI gave everyone an excuse to go back

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<v Speaker 2>to the old way of thinking. And that is interesting

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<v Speaker 2>because I mean, when chat GPT came out, it was cool,

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<v Speaker 2>it could make up a little poor for they and

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<v Speaker 2>stuff like that, but it was very much kind of

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<v Speaker 2>a toy, whereas now it is really pretty impressive what

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<v Speaker 2>it can do. Even as someone who is like as

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<v Speaker 2>I said, not skeptical but hardly an early adopter, I

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<v Speaker 2>can see the value in it. But of course, as

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<v Speaker 2>that's going on and it's evolved, it's alto getting to

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<v Speaker 2>the point where people are going, Okay, I mean, what

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<v Speaker 2>if this destroys all of these businesses that we previously

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<v Speaker 2>thought we're either going to benefit from it or you know,

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<v Speaker 2>use it to you know, leverage there, you know their

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<v Speaker 2>IP or whatever. So no, it is It's been a

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<v Speaker 2>really interesting process, and all I can see is the

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<v Speaker 2>markets just on that efficient compared to what we might

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<v Speaker 2>have thought.

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<v Speaker 1>I know we think they are and they aren't. Now. Listen,

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<v Speaker 1>one more thing, I wanted a point towards. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>little report came to me today from Pamea Laberium about

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<v Speaker 1>the start of the day, and the question is why

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<v Speaker 1>do people invest in expensive stocks? Which I think you

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<v Speaker 1>and I've talked about a lot. Why why do you

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<v Speaker 1>invest in these expensive things? You can see they're expensive

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<v Speaker 1>if you know what happens when you invest in expensive stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera, et cetera. Anyway, he's written about this. Why

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<v Speaker 1>is it that that people continue to do this? And

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<v Speaker 1>the answer is they like owning expensive stocks because they

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<v Speaker 1>have lottery like payoffs. They are fully aware the stock

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<v Speaker 1>is expensive, but they invest in it anyway because they

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<v Speaker 1>think the share price will go up even further, and

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<v Speaker 1>no amount of data will convince them otherwise.

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<v Speaker 2>How's that a lottery like payoff?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, because every now and then one of them will

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<v Speaker 1>go up a lot more.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel that argument is used for everything. It's used

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<v Speaker 2>for white people invest in in stocks as well, and

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<v Speaker 2>that makes more sense there because to me it's like, well,

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<v Speaker 2>you get a bout of wine and a Thosan chat

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<v Speaker 2>of making any money and deploy can you get shot?

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<v Speaker 2>You know? Otherwise? But that that doesn't sound like a

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<v Speaker 2>good reason for buying.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's the reasons given.

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<v Speaker 2>Perceived safety, yes, safety in numbers, prayerfully.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, supremacy. I'm buying the best stock stock and please

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<v Speaker 1>see please see my column on that from last week.

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<v Speaker 1>This does not work. And then but the majority of

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<v Speaker 1>people say perceived lottery because you might go up a

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<v Speaker 1>lot more.

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<v Speaker 2>Nice, that's why the market is not efficient. Yeah, I

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<v Speaker 2>was going to read that studying. I'll go and read

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<v Speaker 2>that studying more detail.

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<v Speaker 1>Because I will. I will send it to you. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>i'll tell you what. I will also pop it onto

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<v Speaker 1>the show notes. I know we always say we do that,

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<v Speaker 1>we often forget, but we're not going to forget today.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll actually do that now, Listen. This was always going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a very short podcast, so I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>finish it there, but asking one question for you John

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<v Speaker 1>before we close. Based on this whole idea of moving

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<v Speaker 1>from soft stuff to hard stuff, how many different metals

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<v Speaker 1>do you think are required to make one server?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm going to just take a ryandom guess at twelve

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<v Speaker 2>thirty thirty thirty.

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<v Speaker 1>So why would you pay more? Why would you pay

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<v Speaker 1>more for a share in a company that needs desperately

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<v Speaker 1>to have those or the company that, in an environment

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<v Speaker 1>of relative supply shortage, produces those metals.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm trying saying if I could even name sightly metals,

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<v Speaker 2>that's a different challenge.

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<v Speaker 1>I have not got time for you sitting there naming

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<v Speaker 1>all the metals that you learned about in chemistry at

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<v Speaker 1>school today. That's not happening.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll make a great podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>No, it totally wouldn't. But you know, challenge, challenge for listeners.

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<v Speaker 1>Challenge for listeners. John. I'm going to close this now,

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<v Speaker 1>but John is now going to sit here and think

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<v Speaker 1>to himself about thirty metals and we'll do this together. John,

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<v Speaker 1>we got five minutes, but the rest of you once

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<v Speaker 1>I close this think to yourself, how many metals can

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<v Speaker 1>you name? How many metals can you name? It's really

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<v Speaker 1>very important. Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talks

0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.880
<v Speaker 1>Money debrief. If you like us, show, rate, review and subscribe.

0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:01.079
<v Speaker 1>Where have you listened to? Podcast? And keep sending questions

0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.200
<v Speaker 1>or comments to Marror Money at Bloomberg dot net. You

0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:05.840
<v Speaker 1>can also follow me at Marinus w on X and

0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.200
<v Speaker 1>John at John Underscore step Back. This episode was hosted

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:11.280
<v Speaker 1>by me Marin sum Set Web. It was produced by

0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:15.000
<v Speaker 1>verses And and Summer Sadi. Now we would be fascinated

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<v Speaker 1>to know how many metals you can name without looking

0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 1>it up, So let us know on Twitter where you

0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:21.640
<v Speaker 1>got to, and we will let you know where we

0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:22.000
<v Speaker 1>got to.