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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 2: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: We begin with an unusual and dangerous weather situation out west.

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Speaker 3: Southern California is dealing with its first tropical storm in

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Speaker 3: eighty four years. Tropical Storm Hillary came ashore last night

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Speaker 3: with forty mile an hour winds and about a year's

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Speaker 3: worth of rain for the region. Los Angeles Mayor Karen

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Speaker 3: Bass is warning of dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

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Speaker 4: The worst of.

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Speaker 5: The rains is potentially left to come, and our primary mission,

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Speaker 5: of course is to protect the lives of Angelinos and

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Speaker 5: their property.

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Speaker 3: On top of the wind and the rain, a five

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Speaker 3: point one magnitude earthquake struck about eighty miles northwest of

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Speaker 3: Los Angeles yesterday. There were no reports of damage or

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Speaker 3: injuries from that, but hundreds of flights have been canceled

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Speaker 3: due to Hillary, and the nation's second largest school district

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Speaker 3: in Los Angeles has closed all its campuses today.

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Speaker 2: So how much more rain can California expect and when

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Speaker 2: will it all? And we bring in Bloomberg meteorologist Rob

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Speaker 2: Carolyn for the details.

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Speaker 6: Rob Karin and Nathan Hillary a tropical storm now well

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Speaker 6: northeast of the Los Angeles area, will continue to move

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Speaker 6: in over the Central Valley of California become a remlant

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Speaker 6: low today. Southern California has seen their heaviest rains. The

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Speaker 6: rain has now in the process of tapering off. It's

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Speaker 6: now a problem for the central and northern Valley of California,

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Speaker 6: also western portions of Nevada, and then on up into

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Speaker 6: eventually the Pacific Northwest. Many areas will see two to

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Speaker 6: four inches of rain. They'll even be some snow and

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Speaker 6: portions of the southern Sierra. I'm Rob, Carolyn Bloomberg, daybreak.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Rob, thank you. Another disaster we're keeping our eye

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Speaker 3: on this morning is those deadly wildfires in Hawaii. President

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Speaker 3: Biden and First Lady Joe Biden head to Maui today.

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Speaker 3: They'll meet with first responders and survivors. At least one

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Speaker 3: hundred and fourteen people have died. Search teams are still

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Speaker 3: combing through the rubble to recover victims.

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Speaker 7: Well.

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Speaker 2: Nathan return to politics now and the race for President.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is confirming he will not participate in this

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Speaker 2: week's Republican debate. The former president says he will skip

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Speaker 2: the debates because he is ahead in the polls by

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Speaker 2: a wide margin. Instead, he plans to do an interview

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Speaker 2: with former FUNX News host Tucker Carlson.

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Speaker 3: Turning the Markets, Karen, China is very much in focus

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Speaker 3: again this week, and there's a surprise there. Chinese banks

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Speaker 3: have made a smaller than expected cut to their benchmark

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Speaker 3: lending rate. The move is the latest sign of Beijing's

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Speaker 3: determination to steer clear of big stimulus even as deflationary

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Speaker 3: risks grow. But not everyone's convinced. Christy Tan, investment strategist

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Speaker 3: at Franklin Templeton, believes the government will be forced to

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Speaker 3: ramp up support.

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Speaker 8: There are now increasing calls that China may not actually

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Speaker 8: be able to meet is five percent full your target?

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Speaker 8: I think there will be more policy coordination that will

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Speaker 8: be needed for that confidence to be restored, or at

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Speaker 8: least reduce the pessimism in the investor's confidence.

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Speaker 3: Christy Tan and Franklin Templeton notes a number of banks

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Speaker 3: have downgraded their forecasts for China. JP Morgan, Barclays, and

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Speaker 3: Morgan Stanley all now think the country will not hit

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Speaker 3: its five percent growth target.

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Speaker 2: Well back here in the US, Nathan the big event

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Speaker 2: comes later this week in Wyoming, where central bankers meet

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Speaker 2: for their annual gathering in Jackson Hole, and for where

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Speaker 2: we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker, John and.

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Speaker 5: Karen as fed Chier. Jpel prepares for the meeting the

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Speaker 5: central bankers. He can boast low unemployment and economic growth

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Speaker 5: it's slowing and make chief for soft landing, but it

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Speaker 5: can't exactly declare victory over inflation just yet. And that's

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Speaker 5: a sentiment to underscore by Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.

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Speaker 5: Seventy nine percent of respondency indust rates and inflation will

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Speaker 5: remain higher for years to come. More than half also

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Speaker 5: say when the Federal Reserve eventually starts cutting rates, the

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Speaker 5: primier reason is going to be disorderly weakness in financial markets.

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Speaker 5: When our ears are going to perk up Friday morning,

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Speaker 5: and that's when the chair pal expected to speak at

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Speaker 5: Jackson Hole, New York, John Tucker, Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 3: Okay, John, thank you and joining us for comprehensive live

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Speaker 3: coverage from Jackson Hole this Friday. We'll have a special

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Speaker 3: four hour edition of Bloomberg Surveillance starting at eight am

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Speaker 3: Wall Street Time, plus US interviews with several FED officials

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Speaker 3: at the event. Our podcast listeners can also download special

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Speaker 3: coverage and prominent interviews on The Odd Lots podcast with

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Speaker 3: Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway.

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Speaker 2: Well on Wall Street, Nathan, we're coming off a third

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Speaker 2: straight week of losses for the S and P five hundred,

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Speaker 2: and that may present a buying opportunity, according to Goldman's Sachs,

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Speaker 2: the firm strategist led by David cost And say the

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Speaker 2: drop inequities will be short lived if the US economy

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Speaker 2: continues on its path to a soft landing. Coleman says

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Speaker 2: most companies have emerged from blackout period, suggesting equity demand

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Speaker 2: from buybacks could increase in the coming weeks.

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Speaker 3: Well, Karen, Tesla has been hit hard over those past

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Speaker 3: three weeks. The shares have fallen nearly twenty percent, and

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Speaker 3: now we're learning more about Tesla's data breach from May.

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Speaker 3: It's being blamed on insider wrongdoing that's affected roughly seventy

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Speaker 3: five thousand people. Bloomberg Zed Baxter has the story.

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Speaker 9: The data breach included employee related records appearing to be

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Speaker 9: current or former employees of Tesla. Foreign media outlet and

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Speaker 9: named Ha Mendelsblatt informed Tesla in May that it had

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Speaker 9: obtained the confidential information. It says the two former Tesla

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Speaker 9: employees misappropriated the information and violation of Tesla's IT security

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Speaker 9: and data protection policies, and then shared it with the

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Speaker 9: media outlet. Tesla has reportedly cooperated with law enforcement and

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Speaker 9: external forensics experts and says it will continue to do so.

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Speaker 9: I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak, right.

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Speaker 2: And thanks. And on the earnings front this week, there's

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Speaker 2: one very big name on the schedule. This Wednesday, we

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Speaker 2: get results from Nvidia, the ship maker has been at

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Speaker 2: the center of the artificial intelligence craze this year. And

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Speaker 2: it's five seven on Wall Street Time now for a

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Speaker 2: look at some of the other stories making news around

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Speaker 2: the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris. Amy,

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Good morning, Karen.

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Speaker 10: Record setting temperatures in Dallas and all across Texas over

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Speaker 10: the weekend. That scorching heat wave continues to bake huge

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Speaker 10: wants of the US. Meteorologist Sarah Barnes is with the

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Speaker 10: National Weather Service in Fort Worth, Dallas, and she says

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Speaker 10: there's a persistent high pressure dome that's kept temperatures well

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Speaker 10: above one hundred degrees for most of the summer.

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Speaker 7: Seeing a lack of rainfall, ongoing and worsening drought conditions,

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Speaker 7: and these are all combining to basically send our temperatures skyrocketing.

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Speaker 10: Temperature has reached one hundred eight degrees in Dallas over

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Speaker 10: the weekend, creating dangerous health conditions and increasing risk for wildfires.

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Speaker 10: More than a thousand flights have been canceled just yesterday,

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Speaker 10: more than five thousand more delayed because of a tropical

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Speaker 10: Storm Hillary on the West coast. Hundreds more flights have

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Speaker 10: been canceled for today, and another two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 10: have been delayed. One of former President Trump's arguments regarding

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Speaker 10: his handling of the classified documents is that he had

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Speaker 10: the power to declassify those documents before he left office,

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Speaker 10: but multiple sources are telling ABC Now that Trump's chief

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Speaker 10: of staff Mark Meadows told investigators that he was never

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Speaker 10: aware of any effort to do that, and now former

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Speaker 10: Vice President Mike Pence is saying the same thing.

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Speaker 4: There is a process that the White House goes through

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Speaker 4: to declassify materials. I'm aware of that occurring on several

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Speaker 4: occasions over the course of our four years bought. I

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Speaker 4: don't have any knowledge of any broad based directive from

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Speaker 4: the president. That doesn't mean it didn't occur, just it's

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Speaker 4: not something that I ever heard about.

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Speaker 10: Former Vice President Mike Pence says the declassification of those

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Speaker 10: documents is something he would expect Meadows to have known about.

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Speaker 10: One Republican senator believes former President Trump should just drop

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Speaker 10: out of the presidential race for twenty twenty four. Bill

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Speaker 10: Cassidy of Louisiana Tel CNN State of the Union. Americans

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Speaker 10: will not vote for a candidate who's been convicted.

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Speaker 1: We may have a candidate for president who has been

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Speaker 1: convicted of a crime.

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Speaker 4: I think Joe Biden needs to be replaced, but I

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Speaker 4: don't think Americans will vote for someone who's been convicted.

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Speaker 10: Cassidy called the charges against Trump related to the mishap

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Speaker 10: billing of classified documents quote a slam dunk. Global News

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Speaker 10: twenty four hours a day, powered buy more than twenty

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Speaker 10: seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred

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Speaker 10: twenty countries. I'm Maybe Morris, and this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Karen, all right, Amy, thank you. It is five h

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Speaker 2: nine on Wall Street Time now for the Bloomberg Sports

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Speaker 2: Update with Dan Schwartzman.

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Speaker 11: Dan, Good Morning, Karen. Starting out in Major League Baseball,

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Speaker 11: the Mariners, of the hottest team in the sport, winners

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Speaker 11: of six in a row as they finish off a

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Speaker 11: three game sweep of the Astros in Houston, winning game

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Speaker 11: three seven to six. Elsewhere, is the Yankees doing something

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Speaker 11: they have not done since nineteen ninety five, that is

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Speaker 11: losing eight games in a row. Boston finishes off a

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Speaker 11: sweep in the Bronx six to five, play homes blowing

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Speaker 11: this one for New York. It was the Giants getting

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Speaker 11: past the Braves in Atlanta four to three, and it

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Speaker 11: was Dallas Kikeel nearly perfect.

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Speaker 9: And then they are the right burring back coaching the

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Speaker 9: way it is awful.

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Speaker 5: There's the game gone, the no hitter gone, Brian Reynolds

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Speaker 5: doubles off the wall and right and it brings the

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Speaker 5: tying run to the.

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Speaker 11: Play that's courtesy of MLB Network, Tikel perfect into that

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Speaker 11: seventh inning before Brian Reynolds breaks up that perfect game, twins,

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Speaker 11: they'll take it two to nothing. Elsewhere, Mets ball to

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Speaker 11: the Cardinals seven to three. Orioles all over the A's

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Speaker 11: in Oakland twelfth to one, the Nationals slipping past the

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Speaker 11: Phillies four to three in the lill League Classic in Williamsport, Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 11: NFL preseason action, the Saints improved to two to zero

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Speaker 11: as a knockoff the Chargers twenty two to seventeen. Jamis

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Speaker 11: Winston thirteen of twenty one, one hundred and sixty nine

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Speaker 11: passing yards. It looks like Aaron Rodgers will be making

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Speaker 11: his Jets debut on the field comes Saturday against the

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Speaker 11: New York Giants in the preseason finale. The thirty nine

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Speaker 11: year old has participated in every training camp practice so

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Speaker 11: far that has yet to suit up in a game.

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Speaker 11: Thatcher Bloomberg Sports Update on Dan Schwartzman.

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Speaker 12: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 12: Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Siriusxam the Bloomberg

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Speaker 12: Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 5: Good morning.

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Speaker 9: I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 3: We're headed into a new trading week with stocks on

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Speaker 3: a three week losing streak, earning seasons winding down, Investor

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Speaker 3: focus is very much likely to turn to Jackson Hole

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Speaker 3: wyoming for the annual Central Bank meeting coming up at

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Speaker 3: the end of the week, but ahead of that, we're

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Speaker 3: joined this morning by Lori Calvacina, head of US Equity

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Speaker 3: strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Laurie, how much of a

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Speaker 3: focus is Jackson Hole for you? What are you going

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Speaker 3: to be listening for from the chairman?

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Speaker 7: Well, thanks for having me as always, and look, I

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Speaker 7: think it has to be a focus this week. It's

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Speaker 7: a pretty light data week otherwise, and as you mentioned,

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Speaker 7: earnings are winding down now that we learned all that

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Speaker 7: much from earnings to begin with, I think that our

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Speaker 7: rate strategist had not anticipated the Jackson Hole commentary as

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Speaker 7: being a big game changer. Nonetheless, it does feel like

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Speaker 7: markets are worried heading into it. I think there's a

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Speaker 7: concern that we might get some hawkish commentary, so I'm

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Speaker 7: really going to be listening to see if we actually

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Speaker 7: get that tone. I think that investors on the equity

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Speaker 7: side at least really want Chairman Powell to address this

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Speaker 7: idea of higher for longer, And the other concern that

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Speaker 7: we've seen percolating in the equity community lately is just

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Speaker 7: the idea that inflation you know, may come roaring back

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Speaker 7: next year. I wouldn't say that there's any you know,

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Speaker 7: sort of fantastic reasons why people are worried about it,

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Speaker 7: but it is a concern. So I think people are

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Speaker 7: going to be looking for anything that Chairman Powell might

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Speaker 7: have to say in terms of have they won the

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Speaker 7: battle on inflation yet and when they think that would

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Speaker 7: want it.

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Speaker 3: In our past conversations, you've talked about how stocks could

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Speaker 3: be up for some choppiness heading into the rest of

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Speaker 3: this year. Could the commentary we get from the central

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Speaker 3: bankers play into that at all?

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Speaker 7: I think it could. I mean I sort of scratching

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Speaker 7: my head trying to figure out how we could have,

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Speaker 7: you know, sort of a dubbish outcome. Maybe it won't

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Speaker 7: be you know, sort of as hawkish as feared, and

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Speaker 7: we've already sort of you know, been selling off heading

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Speaker 7: into this week. I do think that, just in addition

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Speaker 7: to the fact that we've had kind of this information

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Speaker 7: vacuum really so to speak, on earnings in these sort

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Speaker 7: of twenty twenty four fears starting to percolate, I do

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Speaker 7: think that, you know, volumes have been pluggish in August,

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Speaker 7: as is typically the case, and this has over the

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Speaker 7: last five years really been sort of August, September, October.

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Speaker 7: The markets do tend to trip up a bit, at

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Speaker 7: least on the equity side. So you know, my view

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Speaker 7: is really a little more worthy cutting into Friday than

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Speaker 7: anything else. But you know, we have already been selling off.

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Speaker 3: I think I heard you twice mentioned that we didn't

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Speaker 3: learn much from earning season in the second quarter. Here,

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Speaker 3: what were you expecting to learn from earnings? And how

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Speaker 3: did this second quarter season set us up for the

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Speaker 3: rest of the year.

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Speaker 7: Now, it's you know, if my frustrations coming through. You know,

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Speaker 7: it's been a long reporting season. My team, we try

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Speaker 7: to read through as much as we can in the

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Speaker 7: S and P. Five hundred commentary, and we just felt

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Speaker 7: like we didn't learn all that much. And I'm not

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Speaker 7: quite sure what we expected, but you know, we I

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Speaker 7: think what we had been hoping for was maybe a

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Speaker 7: hint of some of the new narratives that are going

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Speaker 7: to dominate trading over the next say, maybe two to

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Speaker 7: four quarters, because it does feel like all the old

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Speaker 7: narratives in plation, pricing, all that stuff is starting to dwindle.

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Speaker 7: But other than AI and inventory d stocking, there just

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Speaker 7: hasn't been really a lot coming out that's been useful

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Speaker 7: to us. Frankly, and I think, you know, I kind

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Speaker 7: of think back in recent years, this is the time

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Speaker 7: of year when investors always start to turn their attentions

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Speaker 7: to twenty twenty four or the year ahead, and I

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Speaker 7: guess we had been hoping we would get some of

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Speaker 7: those breadcrumbs, and we just weren't really hearing a lot

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Speaker 7: the outlook commentary on a longer term basis, Beyonce a

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Speaker 7: quarter was just very very thin.

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Speaker 3: On a shorter term basis, we have seen a few

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Speaker 3: straight week crosses here for stocks. We've heard from strategists

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Speaker 3: to Goldman Sachs saying that might present a buying opportunity.

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Speaker 3: Do you see it that way at least in the

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Speaker 3: short term, that we could see a little bit of

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Speaker 3: movement back into stocks.

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Speaker 7: So our target at year end is forty two fifty.

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Speaker 7: Some of our models point to more upside than that.

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Speaker 7: We have one that gets us as high as forty

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Speaker 7: eight hundred being a justifiable number. I think that both,

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Speaker 7: you know, kind of outcomes are valid here, but we

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Speaker 7: have kept the target at forty two fifty because we've

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Speaker 7: been very very concerned about what we've been starting to

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Speaker 7: see on some of the sentiment indicators, which is, you know,

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Speaker 7: if you look at the aai I met bullishness, it's

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Speaker 7: been about one standard deviation above the mean in terms of,

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Speaker 7: you know, being overly biased in favor of the bulls.

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Speaker 7: So I think we've still got some work to do

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Speaker 7: to get that indicator, you know, sort of farther away

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Speaker 7: from worrisome territory. So I'm not sure I'm in a

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Speaker 7: position where I feel like I should be pounding the

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Speaker 7: table in the very short term. I feel like maybe

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Speaker 7: this weakness is yet to fully play out. That being said,

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Speaker 7: as I peer into next year, you know, we haven't

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Speaker 7: put out a formal target yet, but we have started

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Speaker 7: to look at what our models are saying about next year,

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Speaker 7: and we're still seeing the cross asset models are cautious,

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Speaker 7: but some of the other models are a little more constructive.

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Speaker 7: So I'm certainly not in the big bad bear camp

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Speaker 7: like some my.

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