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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: So here's what we know. The meeting begins four pm

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Speaker 2: Washington time, President Biden, the four congressional leaders McCarthy, McConnell, Schumer, Jeffries,

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Speaker 2: all men, This time interesting, and it will at least

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Speaker 2: begin in the Oval Office. There will be a press

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Speaker 2: pool spray at the top of the meeting, So a

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Speaker 2: little bit after this thing starts, we'll get at least

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Speaker 2: a fly on the wall view for a couple of minutes.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they make a couple of quick remarks before they

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Speaker 2: kick everybody out of the room.

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Speaker 3: You know, cra thank you, thank you.

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Speaker 2: So at least we'll know what happened, even if nothing

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Speaker 2: comes of it. Now, the latest wrinkle we have here,

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Speaker 2: this is important. Speaker Kevin McCarthy says he is not

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Speaker 2: on board with a short term debt limit deal. Now

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Speaker 2: maybe that was obvious to everybody, but he tells Reuters

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Speaker 2: that he opposes the idea of raising the ceiling through

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Speaker 2: the end of the fiscal year September thirtieth. A lot

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Speaker 2: of people have suggested that happen on this program, and

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Speaker 2: he's speaking through the press, you know, to get into

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Speaker 2: this negotiating session today, remembering the X date lands as

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Speaker 2: soon as June first, as soon as being the keywords there.

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Speaker 2: And for those doubting the forecast from the Treasury this week,

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Speaker 2: I will point them to the Bipartisan Policy Center here

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Speaker 2: in Washington nowt today with an updated forecast we've all

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Speaker 2: been waiting for. And guess what it looks a lot

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Speaker 2: like Janet Yellen's. And that is where we begin with

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Speaker 2: Bill Hoglan, the senior vice president of the Bipartisan Policy Center. Bill,

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Speaker 2: thanks for coming back. It's not an accident. You and

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Speaker 2: I tend to talk when we're up against an ugly

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Speaker 2: deadline here in Washington, and this one is approaching very quickly.

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Speaker 2: How important in your view is this latest statement from

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Speaker 2: Speaker McCarthy no on a short term deal.

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm a little bit surprised that Joe that he's

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Speaker 4: made that statement, because I do think we need a

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Speaker 4: compromise here. We are very worried, as you said, we

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Speaker 4: have issued a report this morning that we think that

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Speaker 4: the real risk here in early June. I don't see

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Speaker 4: how we're going to be able to get a total

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Speaker 4: agreement in terms of working with the Congress and the

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Speaker 4: President before June, and so I think you're going to

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Speaker 4: need some form of an extension just for the purposes

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Speaker 4: of nothing more than just being able to buy some

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Speaker 4: time to work out a bigger deal, which has to happen.

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Speaker 4: There has to be a compromise here. It can't be

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Speaker 4: my way or the highway, either for the President or

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Speaker 4: for Speaker McCarthy, and I think this is important that

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Speaker 4: we make at least the extension now we could, as

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Speaker 4: you know from our estimates this morning, it's possible. There's

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Speaker 4: a risk, big risk, but there's a possibility that if

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Speaker 4: we could make it to the June second quarter estimated

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Speaker 4: tax payments, that we might be able to extend this

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Speaker 4: a little bit further without a default. But I think

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Speaker 4: that the risk are too great that we shouldn't be

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Speaker 4: playing with this brinkmanship that's going on right now. And

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Speaker 4: I don't see how you're going to be able to

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Speaker 4: get an agreement with in today.

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Speaker 3: Quite frankly, well, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, I tend to think people's expectations are way too

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Speaker 2: high for whatever is going to happen here today. You're

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Speaker 2: director of Economic Policy, Bill writes in this same report quote,

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Speaker 2: if a solution is not reached before June, policymakers may

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Speaker 2: be playing daily Russian Roulette with the full faith and

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Speaker 2: credit of the United States, risking financial disaster for their

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Speaker 2: constituents in the country. Bill, how do we get that

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Speaker 2: far though without a downgrade? Isn't that the most immediate

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Speaker 2: concern here, that that could happen at any moment if

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Speaker 2: Fitch and SMP wake up on the wrong side of

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Speaker 2: the bed.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's a good, good question I do. I can't

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Speaker 4: say what Fish and S and T will do. We

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Speaker 4: do know that back in the twenty eleven episode that

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Speaker 4: we went through, there was a downgrade from S and T.

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Speaker 4: It was after we reached an agreement, though, but basically

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Speaker 4: they were saying what we had reached was not sufficient

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Speaker 4: to really deal with the long term fiscal challenges as

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Speaker 4: country faced. So that it's a flatly different downgrade that

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Speaker 4: came about back then. But I do think we are

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Speaker 4: once again dealing with the possibility of a downgrade here.

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Speaker 4: We're already starting to see the market impact on this.

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Speaker 4: We already have seen the impact on some interest rates

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Speaker 4: and short term interest rates going up, and so this

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Speaker 4: is already starting to cost the federal government and the

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Speaker 4: long term and we should take that into consideration. I

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Speaker 4: hope the leaders step back, take a deep breath and say, listen,

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Speaker 4: we are not going to default, and we have to

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Speaker 4: at least work out an agreement here, and it has

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Speaker 4: to be a compromise of some sort. I respect both

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Speaker 4: sides of the aisle here, but that's what the democratic

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Speaker 4: process is all about. We have different parties in control.

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Speaker 4: We're going to have to find some solution here that compromises.

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Speaker 4: I just it's going to be difficult, and he's going

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Speaker 4: to need time. That's why I think i'm a little

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Speaker 4: surprised that Speaker McCarthy says he's not in for a

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Speaker 4: short term extension.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I suppose all of this could change, right,

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Speaker 2: But you know, what is what exactly is he saying

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Speaker 2: on you know, the same day he's meeting with the president.

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Speaker 2: He's playing this through the media a little bit here.

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Speaker 2: But maybe it's the date that's an issue as opposed

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Speaker 2: to a short term solution of some different duration. I

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Speaker 2: guess I just wonder Bill, in your view, what both

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Speaker 2: sides could come out with calling a win here today.

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Speaker 3: They both need to make this meeting work.

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Speaker 2: It's not going to help anybody to come out and

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Speaker 2: start blaming the other party after this meeting tonight.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. I would again, I would hope that they could

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Speaker 4: come out of this saying that the United States is

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Speaker 4: going to remain full and faithful to its obligations and

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Speaker 4: not to jeopardize our economic future here by not reaching

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Speaker 4: some form of an agreement. So they can at least

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Speaker 4: come out of this and say we're going to continue

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Speaker 4: to talk. If they come out and say at least

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Speaker 4: we're going to continue to talk, We're not we're not

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Speaker 4: shutting the door on each other on this, but we're

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Speaker 4: going to continue to talk, And that I think would

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Speaker 4: be the best thing that came out. It would come

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Speaker 4: out of days at four o'clock meeting with the four.

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Speaker 4: If they come out and say they're still locked in,

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Speaker 4: that's my way I'm going to I'm not going to compromise.

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Speaker 5: Then.

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Speaker 4: I do fear for what the mark, how the market

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Speaker 4: is going to react, because that will definitely complicate our

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Speaker 4: ability to find a solution here in the next next

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Speaker 4: month or so, before we're really worried here about the

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Speaker 4: early June. Again, I want to make clear that there

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Speaker 4: is a slight possibility we could get beyond that early June,

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Speaker 4: if we can get to that second quarter payments tax

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Speaker 4: payments estimate.

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Speaker 2: Well, I wanted to ask you about that, because you've

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Speaker 2: got June fifteen circled on your calendar as well. We're

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Speaker 2: going to get another influx there of quarterly tax receipts

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Speaker 2: as you write. If that actually ends up being sufficient

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Speaker 2: on June fifteenth, does that carry us potentially through the

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Speaker 2: end of June.

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Speaker 4: That definitely carries us to the end of the June.

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Speaker 4: And then if we can get to the end of

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Speaker 4: the June, and then there's another opportunity here for the

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Speaker 4: extraordinary measures that have been applied, and we can apply

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Speaker 4: that again and that would then get us to the

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Speaker 4: end of July. So but listen, we don't have a

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Speaker 4: lot that we got.

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Speaker 3: This is a ridiculous conversation that we're having.

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Speaker 4: I know, yeah, right, we have a manorial day recess,

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Speaker 4: we have a fourth of July recess, we have the

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Speaker 4: president going off on a foreign trip. We just don't

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Speaker 4: kind of time to uh play around with this. We

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Speaker 4: have to get serious about it. And by the way,

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Speaker 4: just as I have no insight information, but I do

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Speaker 4: know that staffs met on Friday, Yeah, both both from

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Speaker 4: the both from Congress and from the White House. Now,

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Speaker 4: maybe if mainly was setting up the logistics for who's

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Speaker 4: going to speak first or whatever at the four o'clock meeting,

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Speaker 4: but the fact that staffs are now starting to talk,

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Speaker 4: I think is critical because my experience of the years

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Speaker 4: that I worked in the in the Congress, pretential it's

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Speaker 4: made pretentious for me to say this, but it can

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Speaker 4: down to the staff getting down talking together and work

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Speaker 4: with their bosses, and so I do. There's optimistic that

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Speaker 4: we're not going to default, but we may, as we've

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Speaker 4: done in the past in twenty eleven and previous years,

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Speaker 4: we may go right up to the brink.

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Speaker 2: Right and you write economic risks will spike well before

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Speaker 2: the Treasury's account balance reaches zero. Explain to our listeners

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Speaker 2: what you mean by that.

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Speaker 4: Well, as we're starting to see in the in the

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Speaker 4: short term one month four week market, it spiked almost

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Speaker 4: a whole percentage point in the last month, from four

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Speaker 4: point eight to five point eight that's the highest it's

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Speaker 4: been I think ever recorded for this kind of a

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Speaker 4: short term credit and that's before this is before the

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Speaker 4: X date. So what's happening out there is this beginning

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Speaker 4: to get nervous about this, and I want to get

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Speaker 4: in I'm not a financial expert in this regard, but

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Speaker 4: in terms of something called credit default market, that too

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Speaker 4: has spiked up rather large, suggesting that there is the

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Speaker 4: market is starting to take in the consideration that we

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Speaker 4: might actually default in which then that's going to clearly

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Speaker 4: have a direct impact upon the equity markets, the bond

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Speaker 4: markets out there, and more importantly, just to get straight good,

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Speaker 4: if we actually default it, then there will be payments

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Speaker 4: that will not be going out, whether that we can

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Speaker 4: talk about it, whether it's so security of medicare, snap benefits,

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Speaker 4: paying for the just paying the interest on the on

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Speaker 4: the bonds that are going to be rolling over. So

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Speaker 4: this is going to have a direct economic impact, and

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Speaker 4: it's going to be as we've never ever happened as

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Speaker 4: course as you know. Yeah, and so we're all dealing

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Speaker 4: with a little bit of uncertainty here. But the uncertainty

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Speaker 4: is really clearly leans on the side that it would

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Speaker 4: not be beneficial for the long term uh economic future

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Speaker 4: of this country.

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Speaker 2: Now I can hear it in your voice. Bill, this

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Speaker 2: is this is very real, and I can tell you're

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Speaker 2: feeling it. So are there cots if we take a

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Speaker 2: different approach to this, Are there cots that speak of

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Speaker 2: mccarth thee is asking for that the Bipartisan Policy Center

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Speaker 2: believes are reasonable and should be considered by this White House.

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Speaker 2: Or are you not taking a stand?

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Speaker 4: Well, I'll probably take my own stand on this. Okay, great,

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Speaker 4: but on my own stand on this. So, yes, there

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Speaker 4: are things that Speaker McCarthy has put on the table.

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Speaker 4: First of all, I think the unexpended obligations balances that

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Speaker 4: he's talking about that are not out, that have not

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Speaker 4: been obligated, have not been made available, Moneys that basically

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Speaker 4: have been stiff that are still available and have not

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Speaker 4: been obligated under the pandemic, those should if we're not

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Speaker 4: going to spend them, bring it back. Bring that money back.

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Speaker 4: I will now go off and probably on my own

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Speaker 4: here a little bit. But having more in all fairness,

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Speaker 4: I work for republics and all those years up there.

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Speaker 4: The President has put forth a budget and at back

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Speaker 4: in March and the Speaker has put forth a budget.

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Speaker 4: And the one area where there really are opportunities for

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Speaker 4: new discussion is what we call the discretionary portion of

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Speaker 4: the budget, and specifically the non defense discretionary budget. And

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Speaker 4: if I compare the two numbers, the president's request for

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Speaker 4: fiscal year twenty four, the one begins in October, is

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Speaker 4: about seven hundred billion dollars for what we call non

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Speaker 4: defense discretionary. And if in McCarthy's budget, if he goes

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Speaker 4: back he says I want to be at the twenty

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Speaker 4: two level, that number is about six hundred that's one

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Speaker 4: hundred billion dollars difference. Now, I know it's a lot

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Speaker 4: of money, but in the old days, give me a break,

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Speaker 4: we'd split the difference. Surely, surely we can find fifty

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Speaker 4: billion dollars out of of a budget. And by the way,

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Speaker 4: that that what I just raised was did not include

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Speaker 4: this defense spending. But there are things that we can streamline,

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Speaker 4: tighten up in the spending site. And I do think

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Speaker 4: that at the end of the day, we're going to

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Speaker 4: come down to that's going Since Medicare's off the table,

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Speaker 4: so securs off the table, taxes are off the table.

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Speaker 4: I don't think Republicans in the House will want to

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Speaker 4: have a defense number that's lower than the presence request.

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Speaker 4: So it does come down to that. Basically, fifteen percent

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Speaker 4: of the all federal spending is to find that find

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Speaker 4: some money in there in the non defense discretionary, and

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Speaker 4: I think that's where the sweet spot lies. If we

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Speaker 4: can find sit down and have some serious negotiations discussions

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Speaker 4: around the promotes.

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Speaker 3: We're done.

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Speaker 2: Bill Hoaglan live on the air, just figured it out,

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Speaker 2: and you guys have been wasting all this time. Bill,

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Speaker 2: I hope we don't get you fired having you a

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Speaker 2: plying like that, but I really appreciate the analysis. Bill Hogland,

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Speaker 2: just across the street from us here at the Bipartisan

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Speaker 2: Policy Center. Bill, thank you for the insights. As we

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Speaker 2: play it to the panel. It's a big day to

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Speaker 2: have our signature panel with us, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.

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Speaker 2: With a couple of moments that we have, we'll just

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Speaker 2: take a first swing and we'll take a deep dive

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Speaker 2: coming up here. Genie, as Bill mentioned, he's of course

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Speaker 2: a long time Republican. He's also making some sense there, isn't.

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Speaker 6: He He absolutely is. While you were conversing. I was thinking,

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Speaker 6: we need people like Bill Holgland in this room today, saying,

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Speaker 6: come on, let's get the adults out, let's compromise, let's

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Speaker 6: not take things off the table, let's talk about that

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Speaker 6: fifteen percent. He was just talking about, let's meet in

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Speaker 6: the middle and where good to go. It makes so

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Speaker 6: much sense, And when Bill says it, it sounds so simple.

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Speaker 6: And yet I fear to your point if may not

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Speaker 6: be so simple today.

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess that's right, Rick Davis, you're going to

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Speaker 2: I assume agree with Bill here a bit. But my

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Speaker 2: goodness that if we're talking about averting an economic catastrophe,

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Speaker 2: he did make that sound pretty easy, didn't he That

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Speaker 2: that seems like something that might be palatable to both sides.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that Genie's right. We want Bill in

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Speaker 7: that room to cut a deal. He sounds like he's

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Speaker 7: in deal mode. But the reality is that even if

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Speaker 7: you dial it back to what the House Doop is

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Speaker 7: talking about, as far as budget cuts, you know, in

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Speaker 7: the one hundred and fifty hundred and thirty billion dollar range,

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Speaker 7: it's actually not inconsistent with the balance between the Biden budget.

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Speaker 8: And the Karthy budget.

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Speaker 5: On these non defense discretionary spending.

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Speaker 7: So when you take a step back and you try

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Speaker 7: and get out of the pressure of the deadline, two

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Speaker 7: sides are actually not that far apart when it comes

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Speaker 7: to trying to find a budget deal. The problem is

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Speaker 7: this is not technically a budget discussion to discussion around

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Speaker 7: the debt ceiling, and Biden has been unwilling to engage

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Speaker 7: on any further conversations.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk a lot more with Rick and

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Speaker 2: Jeanie about this, as Kevin McCarthy now reportedly says.

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Speaker 3: No short term deal for me.

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Speaker 2: We are not hiking or suspending the debt ceiling until

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Speaker 2: September thirty, So what then. That's why we have our

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Speaker 2: signature panel and a lot of smart minds to help

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Speaker 2: us through this. On the fastest show in politics.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon a lit from

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Speaker 1: our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: This is really interesting. We began the show with a

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Speaker 2: breaking news headline. It was from Reiters. Kevin McCarthy opposes

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Speaker 2: lifting the US debt limit through September thirty, so doesn't

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Speaker 2: want a short term deal. Now we hear from the

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Speaker 2: White House. Guess what we don't want that either, headline

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Speaker 2: on the terminal White House short term debt limit extension

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Speaker 2: not our plan?

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Speaker 3: So what is the plan?

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Speaker 2: Rick and Jennie are with us our signature panel, Rick

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Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie shans aint Ol Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick,

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Speaker 2: This back and forth before they even get in the

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Speaker 2: room in real time here in the media is not

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Speaker 2: going to make this easier, is it?

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Speaker 5: Yes and no.

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Speaker 7: I mean it seems like we've now taken one of

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Speaker 7: the issues off the table, which is a short term extension,

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Speaker 7: and they both agree to it in a public fashion

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Speaker 7: rather than sitting around the table and having this conversation.

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Speaker 7: But this one upsmanship, which is what today represents, is

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Speaker 7: not a healthy thing when it comes to trying to

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Speaker 7: get a deal on the debt ceiling. So we need

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Speaker 7: to get these guys in the room, and we need

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Speaker 7: to have a thoughtful conversation and get those staff working

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Speaker 7: on a hammern out a compromise position.

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Speaker 2: This doesn't make anyone feel better though, does it, Genie.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the short term solution was at least something

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Speaker 2: we could hold on to to say, hey, all right,

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Speaker 2: at least we're not going to default. You know, there

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Speaker 2: is a chance they could buy more time. They just

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Speaker 2: made their lives more difficult, didn't they.

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Speaker 6: They did. And you know it's mind numbing because the

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Speaker 6: conversation you were just having with Rick, you know, we

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Speaker 6: know they're not too far apart on the budget, but

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Speaker 6: unfortunately they're not talking about budget today. Then you listened

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Speaker 6: to the White House yesterday, Kareem John Pier says, oh,

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Speaker 6: but we're not meeting about the debt ceiling negotiations. So

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Speaker 6: even what they're meeting about doesn't seem to be clear today,

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Speaker 6: except they've all, you know, sort of put their head

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Speaker 6: down and said this is our position. And yet you

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Speaker 6: listen and they seem to agree on more than they disagree.

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Speaker 6: Everyone wants to raise the debt ceiling, nobody wants a

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Speaker 6: short term solution, and still they can't come to the middle.

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Speaker 6: So when people say that don't have high expectations of

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Speaker 6: this meeting, I think that is the reality here and

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Speaker 6: the other part is you hope the meeting doesn't evolve

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Speaker 6: into some kind of you know, fistfight or something, because

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Speaker 6: at this point I don't know what they're going to

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Speaker 6: talk about except, you know, talking about their intractable positions.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, right, well, look, Rick, you've been in rooms like

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Speaker 2: this before. This is going to be in the Oval

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Speaker 2: at least to start. I figure the President could bring

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Speaker 2: them somewhere else if you wanted to. You've got the

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Speaker 2: Big Four there. What's the scene here? They're on the couches.

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Speaker 2: They start with maybe a beverage or I don't know

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Speaker 2: if he's got the snacks out, Like, is there small talk?

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Speaker 2: How's this going to start?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 7: I would actually be surprised if they're in the Oval office.

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Speaker 7: They probably go in the cabinet.

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Speaker 5: Room where there's some distance in case things get hot.

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Speaker 2: It's built for the Oval, by the way, and there

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Speaker 2: will be a pool spray in there. But then they

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Speaker 2: could always move.

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Speaker 7: I suppose right, well, that's a friendly gesture by the

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Speaker 7: president because the business usually gets hammered out in the

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Speaker 7: in the cabinet room or in the Roosevelt Room, and

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Speaker 7: then when you got something positive to say, you come

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Speaker 7: into the Oval office. But let's hope that that's an

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Speaker 7: indication that this administration is ready to sort of deal, because,

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Speaker 7: as you said earlier, it does seem that the public

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Speaker 7: posture on both sides is.

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Speaker 5: Why are we even meeting if we're not going to

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Speaker 5: get a deal done.

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Speaker 7: I would say that both of them sort of taking

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Speaker 7: this pack not to do a short term deal actually

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Speaker 7: does add pressure to get a deal done. You know,

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Speaker 7: anytime you let the air out of the tire and

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Speaker 7: you say, oh, we'll just kick this down the road

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Speaker 7: till the end of September, then we go a long way,

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Speaker 7: you know, between now and then again just posturing and

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Speaker 7: not getting anything done. And the reality is one of

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Speaker 7: the things that could come out of this is a

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Speaker 7: budget deal if they can come up with a number

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Speaker 7: that they can agree on for these non defense discretionary cuts,

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Speaker 7: and then we can get on with actually passing a

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Speaker 7: budget in addition to having a debt ceiling. So this

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Speaker 7: actually could result in a real positive when it comes

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Speaker 7: to the fiscal health of our government.

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Speaker 2: We're going to hear from all the presidential candidates on

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Speaker 2: this genie. I figured Donald Trump will be truthing at

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Speaker 2: some point around five o'clock Eastern time.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think he'll be true.

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Speaker 9: Thing.

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Speaker 6: I will be watching for you, Joe. I think it's

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Speaker 6: going to depend on a little bit about whether they

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Speaker 6: get a you know, the jury comes back in this

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Speaker 6: trial here in New York on the rape charge. But

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Speaker 6: that might depend. But I do think we're going to

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Speaker 6: hear from all of them. And you know, another wrinkle

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Speaker 6: in this whole thing is we've got this union of

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Speaker 6: the National Association of Government Employees who filed a lawsuit

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Speaker 6: yesterday against Treasury Secretary Yellen and the President saying they

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Speaker 6: can't comply with the law, that the law itself is

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Speaker 6: unconstitutional and violates the fourteenth Amendment. And now I know

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Speaker 6: the White House has sort of stepped back from that

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Speaker 6: fourteenth Amendment argument, but that would be an out for

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Speaker 6: the President and for the Treasury to say, hey, we

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Speaker 6: can't comply with the debt ceiling because it itself is unconstitutional.

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Speaker 6: I don't know how quickly that would move through the courts.

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Speaker 6: I doubt it would move quickly. But it's another whole

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Speaker 6: aspect of this story.

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Speaker 2: Boy, I'll tell you yes, is the president keeping in reserve?

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Speaker 2: You know, the fourteenth Amendment, the trillion dollar coin or

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Speaker 2: is that just fun talk for radio shows?

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Speaker 7: Rick, I think that's fun talk for radio shows. I

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Speaker 7: love the concept of a trillion dollar coin, right, but

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Speaker 7: it's it's never been invoked.

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Speaker 5: These are extra, you know, sort of constitutional arguments.

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Speaker 7: Sure, the Constitution says Olivia, public death should not be questioned.

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Speaker 7: That does not in itself necessarily mean we can blow

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Speaker 7: through that ceiling. And even if it did mean that

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Speaker 7: and the president did it, what would markets react to, right?

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Speaker 5: I mean, like, is anybody going to agree with that?

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Speaker 5: And so it's way too dangerous a tactic to employ.

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Speaker 7: They need to get a deal done, and even talking

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Speaker 7: about these other options, doesn't We want heat on this

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Speaker 7: meeting today. We want them to be forced to make

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Speaker 7: a deal because obviously on their own, they don't seem

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Speaker 7: to be able to get it done.

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Speaker 3: Unbelievable.

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Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Schanzeno here on Bloomberg sound on. We've

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Speaker 2: got one more log to throw on the fire here.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know if you guys are watching this

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Speaker 2: unfold on your terminals, but an urgent from the Associated

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Speaker 2: Press jury in New York City has begun deliberating in

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Speaker 2: the lawsuit brought by E.

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Speaker 3: Gene Carroll.

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Speaker 2: I believe Genie was referring to this, of course, alleging

438
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Speaker 2: that Donald Trump raped her in nineteen ninety six. We

439
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: could actually get a verdict in this case today, if

440
00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 2: deliberations are underway. It could come at any point. Actually, Genie,

441
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 2: this would be just another ridiculous story to add to

442
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 2: a very busy week here in a ridiculous week. But

443
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 2: I wonder if it moves the needle at all on

444
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 2: Donald Trump's credibility. Following the polling data we saw for

445
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 2: the weekend, it's a slam dunk for him according to

446
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 2: ABC News Washington Post when it comes to this nomination.

447
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, I mean, and you know, I have some

448
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,359
Speaker 6: qualms about that poll although it's not good sign for

449
00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 6: the president. But you know, it's hard to tell at

450
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 6: this point what moves the needle with Donald Trump. But

451
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 6: I do agree with Chris Christy when he says there

452
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 6: is nothing positive about being charged with rape. Now we

453
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 6: don't know whether the jury will find him lible. This

454
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 6: is obviously not a criminal trial, so libel or not

455
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:18,719
Speaker 6: for this action that he's accused of having engaged in

456
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,800
Speaker 6: so many years ago. But the former president did not

457
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 6: come to testify. The depositions, which I know you've heard,

458
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 6: were you know, pretty startling when you hear what he

459
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,040
Speaker 6: did say. And so without him there, it's hard to

460
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 6: say what the jury's going to come out with here.

461
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 6: But they you know, have probably I think it's six

462
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 6: men and the rest are women. They probably are going

463
00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 6: to come I think today or tomorrow back because they

464
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 6: didn't have the president's testimony except for the deposition to

465
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:46,280
Speaker 6: contend with.

466
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, that deposition.

467
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 2: I don't know how that helps anyone other than Egene Carol.

468
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 2: This is the moment when he's asked about the Access

469
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:55,120
Speaker 2: Hollywood tape.

470
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 3: That, of course we all remember from the sixteen camp.

471
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 10: I just started kissing them. It's like a magnet.

472
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 3: As the lawyer reading, I don't even wait.

473
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 10: And when you're a star, they let you do it.

474
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 5: You can do anything, grab them by the you can

475
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 5: do anything. That's what you said.

476
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 4: Well, historically that's true with stars.

477
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 10: It's true with stars that they can grab women.

478
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 11: By Well, that's what that's If you look over the

479
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 11: last million years, I guess that's been largely true, not always,

480
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 11: but largely true.

481
00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:24,639
Speaker 12: Unfortunately or fortunately.

482
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 10: And you consider yourself to be a star.

483
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 3: I think you can say that, Yeah, what's about to

484
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 3: have in the rick?

485
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 5: I could.

486
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,760
Speaker 7: I could go on and on about this. I cannot

487
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 7: believe you gave me thirty seconds. Look, I mean, this

488
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 7: is just one of the many legal dilemmas Donald Trump

489
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 7: has that'll frame his election effort.

490
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 2: Oh, there it is. That was very efficient. You could

491
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 2: take another thirty I just find this amazing that this,

492
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,640
Speaker 2: this is what the Trump team is allowing to be

493
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 2: you know the record, I.

494
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 3: Suppose you have. Anything could happen if he's testifying.

495
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 7: Joe, It's really not their choice. This is the thing

496
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 7: about legal cases. He loses control of his own narrative.

497
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,880
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us

498
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: Live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

499
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

500
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

501
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 2: Plum Joe Matthew in Washington along with Kaylee lines Hailey.

502
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 2: You're just out of Crypto Lands on Bloomberg TV. And

503
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: by that, of course, I mean the Crypto Show. As

504
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 2: you're talking to a member of Congress there. The debt

505
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 2: ceiling still came up even on the Crypto showed it.

506
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 13: Well, especially on daylight today. You got to ask, right,

507
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 13: And I was speaking with the Democratic Congressman from California,

508
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 13: Brad Sherman, who we know is no fan of Crypto,

509
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 13: but I was wondering if he was a fan of

510
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 13: the way the administration has approached this entire, entire conversation

511
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 13: around the debt ceiling. And I asked him what would

512
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 13: constitute an optical outcome for your party today? Would it

513
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:02,399
Speaker 13: be that the President doesn't budge, or that he does

514
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 13: and we get closer to resolving this thing. He basically

515
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 13: said the scenario he wants is a clean debt sealing

516
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 13: race and then to negotiate the budget. So basically the

517
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 13: party line still even as we are now just hours

518
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 13: away from this meeting, it doesn't seem Joe that much

519
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 13: in terms of attitude has really changed.

520
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 2: So you've got Kevin McCarthy saying no short term, short

521
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 2: term deal to loiters. Then the White House responds to

522
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: Bloomberg saying, we never had that plan anyway.

523
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,400
Speaker 13: Well, my question is what is the plan line?

524
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 2: A lot of people are asking them, did you have

525
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 2: a plan? And I wonder, you know, we had a

526
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 2: great conversation last hour with Bill Hoaglan. He solved the

527
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 2: whole thing. You know, by the way you were talking crypto.

528
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 2: He actually solved the entire crisis in a ten minute conversation.

529
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 3: Was brilliant if only he were in the room.

530
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: And basically what he said, by the way, is you

531
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: take the number here. Take a look at the two

532
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 2: top line budget numbers that came from Joe Biden's proposal.

533
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: This is you know, the discretionary spending levels and what

534
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 2: was passed in the House. They are about one hundred

535
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 2: billion dollars apart. So cut it in half fifty billion.

536
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 2: You've got a deal. Everyone go home, Let's not have

537
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 2: a catastrophe.

538
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 13: Well, I guess it becomes a question of how they

539
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 13: get to those figures, right, Joe, because what actually makes

540
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 13: up those spending cuts could be very different depending on

541
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 13: which blueprint you are looking at.

542
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 3: I suspect Lonnie Chen has an idea on this.

543
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 2: Spent a lot of time in the public policy circle,

544
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 2: services senior advisor on policy the National Republican Senatorial Committee,

545
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:39,199
Speaker 2: policy director of the Romney Ryan campaign. He was Governor

546
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 2: Mitt Romney's chief policy advisor California State Controller. That's Lonnie Chen,

547
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 2: it's great to have you back on Bloomberg Radio. Lonnie,

548
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 2: I'm guessing that you could probably help figure this out

549
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 2: pretty quickly as well. Why is it so easy for

550
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 2: some and so difficult for the politicians on both sides of.

551
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 8: This right now, Well, I think because they're in politics,

552
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 8: and I think that makes it early challenging because the

553
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 8: reality is that the substance is very easy to figure out.

554
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 8: You know, I think in terms of where the two

555
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 8: sides would like to get and I don't actually think

556
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 8: that they fundamentally disagree on, for example, the need for

557
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 8: there to be some addressing of the death and spending concerns.

558
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 12: I don't think they.

559
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 8: Disagree on the need to raise the debt cealing. But

560
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 8: I think where they do disagree is on the on

561
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 8: the politics, and I think each side has their own

562
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 8: perspective of what makes for good politics. And at this point,

563
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 8: at least, it behooves both the Biden White House as

564
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,479
Speaker 8: well as the Speaker and Congressional Republicans to appear as

565
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 8: though they're not capitulating to what the other side wants,

566
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 8: and unfortunately that's going to drag this stand off out

567
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 8: for a few more weeks, and then as we get

568
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 8: perilously close to the estate, whether it's June first or

569
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,120
Speaker 8: a few days beyond that, you know, then people will

570
00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 8: really come to the table and figure out what they

571
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 8: need to do. But until then, it's going to be

572
00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 8: fundamentally a battle of political posturing other than sort of

573
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 8: substantive problems coming Solani.

574
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 13: Is that another way of saying nothing's going to change

575
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 13: after this meeting, because they still have weeks left that

576
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 13: they can posture.

577
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,679
Speaker 8: Yeah, I would not expect a whole lot of anything

578
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 8: to come out of this meeting. I am curious to

579
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 8: see what the tone will be in some of the

580
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 8: reports after the meeting. If you think back to the

581
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 8: initial Biden McCarthy meeting, which happened I guess now several

582
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 8: weeks ago, the tone out of that was actually surprisingly conciliatory.

583
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 8: I guess it was you're actually had you actually had

584
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 8: both the Biden White House and the McCarthy team saying,

585
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,679
Speaker 8: you know, look, we don't have an agreement, but we

586
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 8: agreed that we need to talk and we need to

587
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 8: have a conversation. Now. Of course, in the intervening weeks,

588
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 8: we've seen the House Republicans pass their own proposal, and

589
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 8: so the conditions are a little bit different now than

590
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 8: they were when everything was a blank slate. That having

591
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 8: been said, it is useful for observers to look at

592
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 8: what comes out of this meeting in terms of the

593
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 8: tone of the report. I wouldn't expect too much in

594
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 8: terms of substantive agree but I do think we can

595
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 8: read some tea leaves out of the meeting in terms

596
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 8: of how the two sides report it went.

597
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, right, So it was February first, right when they

598
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 2: first sat down and Kevin McCarthy came out in the driveway.

599
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 2: Lonnie had pretty good things to say, is you know,

600
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 2: we we've agreed to move forward? He said he was optimistic.

601
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 2: Does he need to project similar optimism so the market

602
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 2: doesn't take a dump tomorrow morning at nine thirty?

603
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:27,440
Speaker 8: Is that the technical term?

604
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 4: Yet?

605
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 3: It is now some.

606
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 8: Right? I think both sides, to the extent that they

607
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 8: release statements, need to express some measure of optimism about

608
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 8: what the pass forward looks like. They don't need to

609
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 8: come to an agreement. I don't think anybody expects that

610
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 8: to be the case. But I think if the two

611
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 8: sides come out and they report, you know, listen, we're

612
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 8: not we're just not going to talk again for a while,

613
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 8: or you know, we have nothing to talk about. I

614
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 8: think there's reason for markets to be a little more

615
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 8: rattled if if that happens, But again, I think what

616
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 8: is more likely than not is that they're going to

617
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 8: stay listen, We're going to continue this conversation. They're going

618
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 8: to talk about areas where they're common ground, but also

619
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 8: areas where they're disagreement. So you know, in an ordinary

620
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 8: day and age, you would say, well, they're not going

621
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 8: to say very much. But I actually think even that

622
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 8: is a sign of some progress, the fact that the

623
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 8: two sides are willing to express that there are still

624
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 8: things to talk about, things to negotiate on in areas

625
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 8: of potential agreement that could get us out.

626
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 13: Of this impast Well, we talked about kind of how

627
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 13: McCarthy messaged this in the prior meeting. There's also the

628
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 13: question of the messaging for the White House, especially given

629
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 13: Lonnie that, as Joe said, you've advised a number of

630
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 13: presidential campaigns. We have to keep in mind that President

631
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 13: Biden is sitting in on these conversations not just as

632
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 13: the current president but also a current candidate who is

633
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 13: seeking reelection in twenty twenty four, so he has to

634
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 13: think about how this plays into general election politics if

635
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 13: it gets too close, if something were to happen on

636
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 13: his watch, how could this ultimately affect what happens next November.

637
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 13: I just wonder how that influences who blinks first.

638
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, that's a great question, Keyley. I mean, I think

639
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 8: in the politics of ten years ago, I would have said,

640
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 8: you know, there is an influence, this is something that

641
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 8: voters are going to remember. But with how quickly our

642
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 8: political cycles turn over now and how much news develops

643
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 8: on a daily basis, I'm somewhat skeptical that this is

644
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 8: going to have repercussions for either side, just because you know,

645
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 8: we're having this conversation in June July of twenty twenty three,

646
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 8: and the election is well over a year away. I mean,

647
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,479
Speaker 8: that's a lifetime from now in terms of political cycles.

648
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 8: I mean, the former president could be indicted six times

649
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 8: between now and then. I mean, we don't really know

650
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:44,160
Speaker 8: what's going to happen, right, So the reality is that

651
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 8: there will be immediate political effects regardless of what the

652
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 8: outcome is. I am more skeptical that there will be

653
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 8: long term effects on the president's electoral chances. Fundamentally, I

654
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 8: think the president's electual chances in terms of reelection will

655
00:31:57,600 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 8: be influenced by the state of the economy. When we

656
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 8: get to next fall, it will be influenced by who

657
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 8: the Republican nominee ends up, being a whole bunch of

658
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 8: different factors, and the debt dealing may have some impact

659
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 8: on that, But fundamentally, in terms of the back and forth,

660
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 8: I'm a little more skeptical that that's going to have

661
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 8: a massive impact on the electoral outcome next year.

662
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 2: You maybe go back and find it here, Lonnie. This

663
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 2: is It was actually the second of February and the

664
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 2: big meeting inside the Oval Office. Kevin McCarthy comes out

665
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 2: on the driveway after it's all done.

666
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 11: We have different perspectives, but we both laid out some

667
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:35,959
Speaker 11: of our vision of where we'd want to get to,

668
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 11: and I believe after laying both about, I can see

669
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 11: where we can find common ground.

670
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 2: We could find common ground. I haven't heard a statement

671
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 2: like that since that meeting. I think, Lennie, you just

672
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 2: wonder what happens when people, when human beings get into

673
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 2: a room. Right, We're not anonymous on the web here,

674
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 2: it's not a road rage incident any longer you're eye

675
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 2: to eye with someone, and that's when things tend to happen.

676
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 8: Right, And neither the President nor the speaker are unlikable people,

677
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 8: you know, when you get um into into a room

678
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 8: one on one. I think they're both very affable in

679
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 8: their own ways. So it is the case that these

680
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 8: interpersonal relationships are very different. And by the way, Biden

681
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 8: and McCarthy don't have much of a personal relationship. I

682
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 8: mean that that's been well reported and well known. But

683
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 8: I do think that they're both fundamentally, you know, very

684
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 8: politically savvy, and they understand that each side needs to

685
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 8: be able to get something out of this. So again,

686
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,959
Speaker 8: I think what we ought to look for after the

687
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 8: meeting that they have here, you know, coming up, what

688
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 8: we really have to look for is what is the

689
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 8: tone is that is that the tone of similar kind

690
00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 8: of listen, there's still areas where you potentially could agree.

691
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,959
Speaker 8: That's a very hopeful sign in my view, even if

692
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 8: they don't reach an agreement now or for a few weeks,

693
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 8: the fact that they're willing to admit that there are

694
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 8: areas of commonality and opportunities for common ground and potential agreement,

695
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 8: I think is a very hopeful thing.

696
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 13: Well, when we talk about what potential agreement would look like,

697
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,959
Speaker 13: what ultimately would compose a deal, we know that Republicans

698
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 13: want there to be at least some spending cuts. So

699
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 13: while we've talked at length, Lonnie, about what the economic

700
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 13: ramifications would be if there was no deal reach, we

701
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 13: also have to ask the question of what the economic

702
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 13: ramifications will be if there is one and if spending

703
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 13: cuts come with it. Lisa Shalatt, who is the CIO

704
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 13: of Wealth Management over at Morgan Stanley, was on Bloomberg

705
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 13: TV earlier and she was saying this ultimately matters to growth.

706
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 13: Listen to what she said.

707
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 10: What's cut? Are there rollbacks of some of the Inflation

708
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:37,240
Speaker 10: Reduction Act Act spending related opportunities, some of the infrastructure

709
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 10: spending that is kind of in motion, and those things

710
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 10: have been a support to growth and if we need

711
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 10: to take that out of the forward forecasts, that is

712
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 10: going to dampen economic growth.

713
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 13: And of course, Lonnie, this also comes at a time

714
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 13: when already the growth is in question and we're talking

715
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 13: about recessionary risks. So is now really the time to

716
00:34:59,880 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 13: be cutting spending.

717
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 8: Well, I don't think that some of the more dire scenarios,

718
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 8: for example around rollbacks of Inflation Reduction Act provisions, is likely.

719
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 8: I think the President recognizes that this was a one

720
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 8: of his signature pieces of a legislative accomplishment. He's not

721
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 8: going to want to erode those elements, so that I'm

722
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 8: less would be less concerned about. I do think that

723
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 8: it is exceedingly hard to see the Democrats in Congress

724
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 8: and President Biden agreeing to any real spending cuts at

725
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 8: this time. I think what is more likely to come

726
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 8: out of it is either a set of of of

727
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 8: cuts that are cuts, maybe cuts the name only, or

728
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 8: cuts dressed as something else. Or the more likely outcome,

729
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,319
Speaker 8: as I see it, is some form of commission to

730
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 8: study what needs to be cut. And I recognize that

731
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 8: a lot of Republicans are saying that that's insufficient. They're

732
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 8: saying that now, but when you wait for a couple

733
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,799
Speaker 8: of weeks, the dynamic is going to change as we

734
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 8: get closer and closer to the actual He.

735
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 2: Still loses the Freedom Caucus in that world, though, right,

736
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 2: and and that might be okay, Lonnie, I mean he's

737
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 2: he's going to need some Democrats, it sounds like to

738
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 2: pass the legislation or the framework that you're talking about.

739
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 3: So is his greater worry.

740
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,479
Speaker 2: Right now the Republican House caucus or whether this gets

741
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 2: a couple of Democrats and somehow gets through the Senate.

742
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 8: Well, I don't think that he that any congressional Republican

743
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 8: leadership will allow for the possibility at this point that

744
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 8: it passes with basically because of Democrats votes. But the

745
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 8: reality is, when push comes to shove that that's a

746
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 8: decision I think that Speaker McCarthy may have to make,

747
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 8: which is essentially, you know, how how much political capital

748
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 8: is he willing to expend to ensure that this agreement

749
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 8: gets through. Because I do think that there's an agreement

750
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 8: on a set of of principles and ideas that can

751
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 8: pass both the House and the Senate. I do think

752
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 8: it's there, But it's really a question of you know,

753
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 8: what the political pain is going to be and how

754
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 8: much pain is gon to be extracted, and will that include,

755
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 8: for example, Speaker McCarthy no longer being Speaker.

756
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,720
Speaker 13: Well, I was just about to ask, is the choice

757
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 13: getting it through or keeping the job?

758
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,319
Speaker 8: I mean, it's a brutal choice, but you can see

759
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 8: a scenario where that does end up coming into focus.

760
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 8: I think that's fundamentally right. Now. The two sides need

761
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 8: to agree on kind of what their red lines are,

762
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 8: and I they don't have to agree publicly. They just

763
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,320
Speaker 8: have to understand internally what those red lines are and

764
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 8: then they can negotiate up to that. But it's you know,

765
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 8: it's a position no politician ever wants to be in it.

766
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 8: But I do believe that fundamentally. I do take the

767
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 8: speaker at his word when he says he doesn't want

768
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 8: to see it at fault, and I think he is sincere.

769
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 4: And honest about that.

770
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 2: We've had a few headlines cross since we've been on

771
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 2: the air for an hour and change here Lonnie, including

772
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 2: both sides saying no to a short term deal, and

773
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 2: now Punchball reports that Kevin McCarthy says a debt deal

774
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 2: is needed in principle and that could mean a lot

775
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 2: of different things by next week. You don't actually think

776
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 2: that's possible, or do you?

777
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 8: Well, the fact that he's saying that they've got to

778
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 8: have an architecture in place means that he feels he

779
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 8: needs some time to sell it to as members. That's

780
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 8: what that tells me. With respect to the issue of

781
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 8: no short term deal. I mean everyone's going to say that, right.

782
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 8: No one's going to come out and say, yeah, we're

783
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 8: going to need the short term deal, because then that's

784
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 8: the obvious pathway. Then everyone will go to and and

785
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 8: it will It doesn't allow each side to retain any

786
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,959
Speaker 8: political leverage if they immediately go to short term deal.

787
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 8: I still tend to think that's the most likely and

788
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 8: immediate outcome, which is that we punt this down the

789
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 8: road for three months, six months, whatever the case might be.

790
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 8: It's just the easiest option.

791
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:47,879
Speaker 2: Despite the pre buddle statements. Here, what a perfect voice

792
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 2: for today, Lonnie. I really appreciate your coming back to

793
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 2: talk to Lonnie Chenz, senior fellow the Hoover Institution. He

794
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 2: also is with Stanford Law, where he's a lecturer. Kaylee,

795
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,440
Speaker 2: we're only doing grown ups today, only grown up voices,

796
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 2: voices of reason in the middle of.

797
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:03,800
Speaker 3: All the madness.

798
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 13: A lot of noise out there, how much noise though,

799
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 13: we we'll be hearing from the White House outside the

800
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,240
Speaker 13: Oval Office when this meeting wraps up at some point.

801
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 3: Today deeply curious.

802
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: I wonder who says what and when? You're listening to

803
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

804
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 1: one eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and

805
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,840
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you

806
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:26,919
Speaker 1: get your podcasts.

807
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 2: So President Biden heads into today's debt ceiling meeting at

808
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 2: the White House with his approval rating, as we discussed,

809
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 2: at an historic low in the latest ABC News Washington

810
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 2: Post Pole. Remember the number, it was thirty six percent.

811
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: Not good, Kaylee lines for this president two weeks into

812
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: a reelection campaign, obviously, but maybe you know he could

813
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 2: find solace in this new poll from Gallop because it

814
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: looks like j Powell is not doing any better. The

815
00:39:53,960 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 2: stewpole released today you might have bumped into and your

816
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 2: tip sheets this morning shows thirty six percent yes to

817
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 2: the penny of US adults say they have a great

818
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,759
Speaker 2: deal or a fair amount of confidence in the Chair

819
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 2: of the Federal Reserve recommend the right thing for the economy,

820
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 2: Jennet Yellen at thirty seven percent.

821
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 13: Yeah. So at that thirty six percent, that is the

822
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 13: lowest public confidence we've seen for any Fed chair on record,

823
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 13: which is probably not a superlative that you'd like to

824
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 13: have attached no to your name. But he still is

825
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 13: doing better on the economic front, it seems, in this

826
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 13: pool than Joe Biden, because President Joe Biden only has

827
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 13: the confidence of thirty five percent of Americans on the

828
00:40:34,960 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 13: economy specifically.

829
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 10: Wow.

830
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: So Kaylee introduced our audience to Mohammed Yunis, the editor

831
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 2: in chief at Gallup on Balance of Power TV last week,

832
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 2: and he's with us in studio right now.

833
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 3: Mohammed. It's wonderful to see you.

834
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 12: Thank you for coming in, thanks for having me.

835
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 2: So this is quite the number here, thirty six percent

836
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: for j Powell. How much does he have the president

837
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:58,760
Speaker 2: to thank for them?

838
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, you know, the big difference between him

839
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 9: and President Biden is he doesn't need to face voters

840
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 9: in an election. So comparing those two numbers I think

841
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 9: is a little unfair and maybe to both men on

842
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 9: many levels. One of the things that really is notable

843
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 9: about his approval rating or really confidence rating from the

844
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:21,280
Speaker 9: public is it used to be really high.

845
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 12: He was at sixty percent at.

846
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 9: The height of the federal government's attempt to deal with

847
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:31,240
Speaker 9: the shutdown. So you're looking at a leader who, actually,

848
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 9: as you pointed, I think out Kayley last week, you know,

849
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 9: was appointed by the opposing party, had really high ratings

850
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 9: from the public sixty percent. I mean, that's I can't

851
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,759
Speaker 9: remember the last time a federal government leader had that

852
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:46,399
Speaker 9: level of.

853
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,760
Speaker 3: As a trusted voice in a time of crisis.

854
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,959
Speaker 9: For sure, and now he finds himself at thirty six.

855
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 9: But again, it's important to keep in mind the context.

856
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 9: Do Americans wake up thinking about Chairman Powell every night

857
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 9: every day, know, absolutely not. What they do think about, though,

858
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 9: is inflation. And we have basically half of America now

859
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 9: saying the most important financial problem their family faces is

860
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 9: either high costs of living or making the rent or

861
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 9: paying their mortgage. So those are the kind of the

862
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 9: only two things Main Street deals with that really triggers

863
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 9: to our public consciousness. The chairman of the Federal Reserve

864
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 9: or the Federal Reserve in general.

865
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 13: Yeah, and of course maybe freshly on the minds of

866
00:42:30,280 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 13: Americans as well as whether or not their deposits are

867
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 13: safe in the US banking system, and I know Gallup

868
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 13: did some work on that as well. Americans don't generally

869
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 13: feel that confident in their deposits being secure at the moment,

870
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,839
Speaker 13: so that may factor into this too, because you did

871
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:46,840
Speaker 13: conduct this survey after the failures of SBB and signature.

872
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 13: It was pre first republic It was done in April,

873
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 13: but still that likely was coloring what people were saying here.

874
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,359
Speaker 13: As we talk about kind of the breakdown though of

875
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 13: the people's surveyed, you mentioned that this was a Republican

876
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 13: appoint ee. Chairman Powell was is it Republicans that don't

877
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 13: have him or Democrats? What does that break down look like.

878
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 9: What's really interesting is right now he has a lot

879
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:10,359
Speaker 9: more confidence from Democrats than Republicans. But at the same time,

880
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 9: when you think about how much of a presence he's

881
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 9: had in standing side by side with the president and

882
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 9: being really a champion of the message they're sending to

883
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 9: both the market and voters, it's not a surprise that

884
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 9: those who support President Biden are going to support the

885
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 9: top officials he's relying on to address the issue. But

886
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 9: it is important to note that, and I want to

887
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 9: say this because of your listeners' focus, of course on

888
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 9: finance and the economy. Perceptions of the economy in the

889
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 9: United States are really metrics that used to be extremely

890
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 9: useful for us engaging how well the economy was actually

891
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 9: doing in the real world. They've become horrible metrics for

892
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 9: doing that now, and it's because a lot of people's

893
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:55,399
Speaker 9: responses around the economy tend to go the way of

894
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 9: their political id. So if I support the president, I

895
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 9: think the more likely to say the aromies doing well.

896
00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 9: If I don't support the president or he's not for

897
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 9: my party, I'm more likely to say the economy is

898
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,120
Speaker 9: not doing so well. And here, I think, is one

899
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 9: of those places with Jerome Powell, where again folks are

900
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 9: showing sort of their partisan lean in whether or not

901
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 9: they approve of the actor.

902
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 2: Which is really interesting because you know, he's got the confidence,

903
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 2: as you find of sixty percent of Democrats and only

904
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 2: twenty one percent of Republicans, even though he was, to

905
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 2: Kaylee's point, appointed by a Republican president and is in

906
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 2: fact himself a Republican.

907
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 12: Right is J.

908
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: Powell have an R after his name?

909
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 9: I do believe, So you know, it's the other thing

910
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 9: to think about, really is who's not a Democrat and

911
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 9: a Republican and how they feel. Independents, of course, are

912
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:48,560
Speaker 9: also not high on confidence on either really of the

913
00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 9: sides of the aisle or sides of town in terms

914
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 9: of dealing with the economic crisis. But a good percent

915
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:59,000
Speaker 9: of Independence are really lacking confidence in any of these leaders,

916
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 9: including Jerome Pwer and I think it's as we move

917
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 9: into this kind of Trump back into the mix, Republicans

918
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:07,240
Speaker 9: still not sure what to do about it.

919
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:08,440
Speaker 12: It's really important for us.

920
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 9: To watch how independents feel about everything the nation's dealing with,

921
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:17,400
Speaker 9: but particularly the debt ceiling limit. I also want to

922
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 9: mention just something as you know, I know you guys

923
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 9: are talking about that for the break, It's really important

924
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 9: to keep in mind that this is also a leadership

925
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 9: across the board that is primarily coming from a Congress

926
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:29,240
Speaker 9: that has.

927
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 12: A really low approval rating.

928
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,719
Speaker 9: So right now, sixteen percent of Americans approve of the

929
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:34,879
Speaker 9: job Congress is doing.

930
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 12: And I hear you guys laughing. And it used to

931
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:38,879
Speaker 12: be funny.

932
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 9: But when you think about what's happening in the market

933
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 9: and really how little confidence our public voter, just man

934
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 9: and woman on the street have in these very powerful

935
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 9: figures to make the right decisions for the economy. It's

936
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,720
Speaker 9: not surprising that the number one most stated most important

937
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 9: problem by the public is poor government and poorl leadership.

938
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 9: And it's also not surprising that this happens at a

939
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:07,240
Speaker 9: time when we see a decline in confidence and institutions

940
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 9: across the board, really at the national level.

941
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 13: I think it's so interesting, Joe, to think about how

942
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 13: this ultimately shows up in the voting booth. Right, the

943
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,400
Speaker 13: idea is always that it's the economy stupid. This is

944
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 13: really what people vote on. Judging from what you're saying, Muhammed,

945
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 13: it would suggest that this just means that we switch

946
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 13: parties that are in charge.

947
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 4: Right.

948
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:28,400
Speaker 13: We didn't, necessarily, though, see that play out in the

949
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 13: way we thought it would in the midterms in twenty

950
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 13: twenty two. The Democrats did hold on to the Senate.

951
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 13: So how should we be thinking about this with an

952
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:41,439
Speaker 13: eye on twenty twenty four. Does this suggest that things

953
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 13: are tracking away from the Democratic Party or could enough

954
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:49,560
Speaker 13: change in the interim that things look totally different by.

955
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 9: That Definitely the latter would be my bet. There's so

956
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 9: much time between where we sit right now and you know, voting,

957
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 9: and it really is going to come down to that.

958
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 9: There's so much that could potentially happen to completely side

959
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:08,800
Speaker 9: rail a presidency first and foremost the economy. We all,

960
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 9: you know, you all were covering Trump's presidency an attempt

961
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 9: to be re elected. There was a time when the

962
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:18,879
Speaker 9: economy looked really strong under President Trump, and who would

963
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 9: have guessed that a lockdown would have completely wiped that

964
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:25,400
Speaker 9: out and drove us into the red and made it

965
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 9: a very uphill battle. Right now, President Biden faces a

966
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:34,480
Speaker 9: considerable uphill battle. Only President Reagan had an approval rating

967
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 9: that was this low at this point in his presidency.

968
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 9: So he really does re engage the American voter from

969
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 9: a very weak standing point in terms of on the

970
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 9: economy itself, which historically, as you mentioned, Keiley, continues to

971
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 9: be the most important issue for voters.

972
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:54,919
Speaker 12: He only rates The.

973
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,080
Speaker 9: Only president who rates lower than him right now on

974
00:47:57,160 --> 00:47:59,920
Speaker 9: handling the economy is George W. Bush in two thousand

975
00:47:59,920 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 9: and eight. So it's really he's really.

976
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 12: At the bottom.

977
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 3: That's about as low as you go, exactly considering.

978
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 12: In our lifetime.

979
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:09,080
Speaker 9: Right in our lifetime, and you think about kind of

980
00:48:09,080 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 9: our spectrum of what's good and bad, the economy is

981
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 9: absolutely going to be critical. Americans' views on the economy

982
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 9: are going to be critical, but also how the economy

983
00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 9: I think is changing is going to be really important.

984
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 9: I saw your colleague Lisa this morning, Lisa Bromwitz posting

985
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:34,360
Speaker 9: about small businesses in the US, and the startup graph

986
00:48:34,600 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 9: just is depressing. It's like on the way down. And

987
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,840
Speaker 9: when you think about how Americans actually find jobs and

988
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 9: how America creates jobs, the more of those kind of

989
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 9: foundational changes taking place and how the public reacts to

990
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 9: them are going to play a fundamental role in who

991
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 9: they vote for.

992
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 3: It's a bit of a clinic with Mohammed Nis.

993
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for It's wonderful to see use

994
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 2: the editor in chief at Gallup, and I'd love to

995
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: have you back to talk about what are listeners should

996
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 2: be looking for and how they should sort of focus

997
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 2: their attention on polls as we get further into this

998
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 2: election cycle. A lot of skeptics out there. We'd love

999
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:10,880
Speaker 2: to tap your brain on that. Thanks for coming in,

1000
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure

1001
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,520
Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and

1002
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find

1003
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,280
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm

1004
00:49:27,360 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 2: Eastern time at Bloomberg dot com