1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Ley. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: investment and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg wherever 5 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: you look. Overnight, we had bond yields in New Zealand, 6 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: Australia dropping to record lows. The universe of negative yielding 7 00:00:37,720 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: assets now topping ten trillion dollars here, but it's in 8 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: New York to makes sense of everything. Tony Chrissenzi, PIMCO 9 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: Market strategist and portfolio manager. Tony, how important is that 10 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: number ten trillion right now? Well on Jamaica quick I 11 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:56,319 Speaker 1: m F study indebtedness, big dropping indebtedness to pitch here 12 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: talks about until lesson for other nations on how to 13 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: get it right. They had to get many different groups together. 14 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: It's a big political game they want. It was interesting 15 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: as many of the Caribbean leaders went to marl Lago 16 00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: to meet with the President where Venezuela. John there's an 17 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 1: immediacy to the Venezuela debate down there that you don't 18 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: have up here. In that last Wait, the show was 19 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:23,559 Speaker 1: so focused, really so focused. Can we get off Jamaica 20 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 1: for a little bit? You know, I had a cricket 21 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 1: lesson Wednesday with some that was just awesome. Did you 22 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: have fun? Yeah, it's hard you keep falling in love 23 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: with the game. Oh, I was just so cricket. Do 24 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: you want to try and bring Tony back? Why don't 25 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: we bring in one of the leading experts on short 26 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: term paper in the world. I'm trying to do it. 27 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 1: I'm trying, Tony. What are you telling clients at a moment, Well, 28 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: the Southern as you mentioned, there tenhillion dollars of bonds 29 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: globally that are negative yielding. The conversion of the U 30 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: S Yeel curve reflect some of the forces that have 31 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 1: pushed yields into negative territory globally in Japan and Jeremy's 32 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: Germany and the rest of Europe specifically. These forces are 33 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: going to be with us for a long time. It 34 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: is not um it's not improbable that interest rates will 35 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 1: stay low until because the US populations aging. For example, 36 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 1: there are a lot of people born between n and 37 00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: sixty four. As they age, they they have a big 38 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: impact on growth. It means the workforce could be shrinking. 39 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: In Japan, it's outright sprinkage of a million person declined 40 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 1: the last five years two million person declined from twenty 41 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: seventeen twenty two to seven. They'll have a three million 42 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 1: person declined in the population, down from a million. This 43 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 1: makes it more difficult to have high levels of spending 44 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 1: and high levels of output in other words, fast growth, 45 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,679 Speaker 1: in other words, high interest rates. Is very difficult to 46 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 1: have those conditions, and so uh, what we would say 47 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: about Friday and conditions. More generally, it reflects a very 48 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: big secular or super secular force demographics and other factors 49 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: productivity that will be with us for a long time. 50 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: So you've got this massive way on the long end 51 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: of the yield curve. Raises the question what kind of 52 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: signal you can take when short dated yields surpassed alonger 53 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 1: dated yields. What kind of signal can you take from curve? 54 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: And bus I had to pull out my a large 55 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: book from a fellow Italian, Frank F. Bosie. It's pages 56 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 1: and I was reading through areas on the yield curve. 57 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: There's two theories you could say this, the so called 58 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: pure expectation theory, where the yield could reflect what investors 59 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: think the FED will do next. So yield longer term 60 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: yields falling below shorter term yields can only mean that 61 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: the market thinks the FED will lower its policy rate. 62 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: But there are other ideas. Is something called the the 63 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: preferred habitat theory. In other words, I would rather own 64 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,000 Speaker 1: a ten year security than a three month security. Typically 65 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 1: one would ask for a higher amount of yield as 66 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: compensation against farious risk. But today that the investor says, 67 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:01,160 Speaker 1: I want the sh I want more conversation the short 68 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: maturity because I think that T bills at to forty 69 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: are not a good BIBELE because they'll eventually be zero. 70 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: Let's go back to first principles, and let's forget about 71 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: Frank Fabozi and his wonderful eight hunder page books. You 72 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: and I have skimmed through them. Excuse me, CHRISENSI read him. 73 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 1: I skimmed them. But but within this is the theory 74 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 1: of gross and that's bill gross, which is financial repression. 75 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: There's no end in sight, is there? There's we the 76 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: highest level. We expect the European Central Bank to put 77 00:04:27,480 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 1: his policy rated any time in the next five years 78 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: is zero. It's current level. And this is serious stuffings 79 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 1: of dollars of money looking to escape financial repression. Low 80 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: interest rates, negative interest Right, where do they growth? They 81 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,600 Speaker 1: tend to go these days into credit instruments. Then why 82 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: are they not going to us treasures? They are, but 83 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: less so because when they hedge out the currency risks 84 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: in Germany and in Japan, the yield is actually negative. 85 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: There's a loss. They it's better for them to stay 86 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: in their their own government bonds and to purchase treasures. 87 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 1: They look to credit and this includes the emerging markets. 88 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: And that's why after December is drubbing, big decline in 89 00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:09,720 Speaker 1: the stock market, big decline in corporate bonds, etcetera. They 90 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: rallied back because there's so much money locked up in 91 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: this financial oppression into a skin tony. A lot of 92 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: people listen to this right now, don't have a luxury 93 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: buying institutional exposure to emerging market fix in debt. They 94 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: just want to know where to get a yield nominal 95 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: or an inflation adjusted real yild. John, I don't know 96 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: if you're familiar with the phrase really yield, but but 97 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,799 Speaker 1: within this is the financial repression Bill was talking about 98 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: for decades. I see, come on, new negative rates, new 99 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 1: financial repression. Are you gonna tell me we're gonna go 100 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,840 Speaker 1: on another decade with this? It's highly probable. I mean, 101 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: I'm going to send you a pyramid of the population 102 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: changes in Japan that I've just mentioned earlier. These are 103 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,360 Speaker 1: substantial forces. Now there's something that can work against in 104 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:55,799 Speaker 1: Japan worked at it, and we saw that Prime Minister 105 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: Abe say this in Davos, Uh woman, it's called women omics. 106 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,800 Speaker 1: Why not bring more women, more senior citizens into the 107 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 1: workforce to offset that? And he said since the samer 108 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: twenty twelve when he took office, they've been there's a 109 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: two million person increase in the number of women working, 110 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 1: but it's not enough to offset this work once and 111 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:21,280 Speaker 1: they have in fact been successful. Sixties seven level of 112 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:28,840 Speaker 1: a very different version of tuition amics many ideas, I 113 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: think the ideas that the governments have to start thinking 114 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: about and has nothing to do with central central banks 115 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: and they have no power on this. So Tony, with 116 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: all of this in mind, the conversation of the last 117 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: seven minutes or so, a lot of our listeners want 118 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: to understand where the risk assets can perform in this environment. 119 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: What was interesting in the price section of last week 120 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 1: is that we still had him flows into US investment 121 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:52,160 Speaker 1: grade and high yield funds. An investment grade European credit 122 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: now yields below zero point nine percent. Seems like the 123 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:58,960 Speaker 1: credit market can still perform well. Whether we have an 124 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: inversion in the treasury, it will not. It's the keep 125 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: thing that's needed. Though. The key ingredient is ongoing economic expansion. 126 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 1: If investors start to think the story will change, then 127 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: they start to change their view about the cash flows 128 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: and the ability to get money back to be repaid, 129 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: and so in the context of ongoing economic expansion, investors 130 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: will keep reaching outward along the risk spectrum into credit 131 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: related assets, which included the emerging markets too, Tony, thank you, 132 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: We can go all of our guests. This warning could 133 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: go for three as well. With US is Rumbert Hormats, 134 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: Ambassador Hormats, with kissing your associates and the courses work. 135 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: We're not only Republican and Democrat administrations. Last with the 136 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: Secretary Clinton Obama State Department ambassadors. Thrilled to have you here. 137 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: Just a general comment, Mr Mueller and what that means 138 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: for getting things done in Washington. In the coming months. Well, 139 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,960 Speaker 1: I suspect they will continue to be activities on the 140 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: part of the various investigatory committees on the Hill and 141 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: probably in the southern district of New York and eastern Virginia. 142 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: But I think the American political focus will now look 143 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: to something different. Um And what's gonna have to happen 144 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: is if we're going to move ahead there, who's going 145 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: to have to be some progress on areas like the economy. 146 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:36,840 Speaker 1: If the economy is weakening, there will be more attention 147 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: to that. Healthcare is going to be an important issue. 148 00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: And perhaps if there's one other element of this Mother 149 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: report that can be focused on, it is the notion 150 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,079 Speaker 1: of both sides pulling together to deal with whatever he 151 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 1: comes up with with respect to Russian involvement in American elections, 152 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: because the argument by most people is this happened. There's 153 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 1: a lot of evidence that had happened, and it's continuing. 154 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 1: So maybe they can use as a rallying point to 155 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: move ahead on that issue, but at least move ahead 156 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,079 Speaker 1: into some other types of issues that the American public 157 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 1: is going to be focused in more than Mueller, which 158 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:12,959 Speaker 1: is going to be in the rear view mirror of 159 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,199 Speaker 1: most people by folks. We had a terrific conversation with 160 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: the prosecutor this morning. We'll try to get on our 161 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: podcast as well. Ambassador President She has just landed in 162 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: Paris and Maria today are translating for me. Thank you, 163 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: Maria and the Figaro looking for a relationship that could 164 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 1: be mutually beneficial and maybe Mr mccam pushing back a 165 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:38,120 Speaker 1: little bit against the mutual beneficiality. How should Americans perceive 166 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:43,840 Speaker 1: President She of China greeting Mr mccum, Well, it's very interesting. 167 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: You see what's going on in Europe. Just this week 168 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: you have this visit by President j Jing Ping in 169 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 1: Italy and in France, trying to strengthen ties between Europe 170 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:58,960 Speaker 1: and China. And we shouldn't forget that the original Silk Road, 171 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: which is now the Belton Own Initiative, really was between 172 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: China and your particularly Italy at the time. So he's 173 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: attempting to strengthen ties which will strengthen markets for Chinese 174 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: goods and strengthened political relations. But the Europeans now are making, 175 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 1: particularly the French and the Germans, the argument that they 176 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: want reciprocity, particularly with respect to investment. The Chinese bought 177 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 1: this big German robotis company, Kuka. There was a very 178 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: large reaction in Germany. So they're going to be pushing 179 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: for a greater degree of reciprocity on trade with particularly 180 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: and investment. So I think the Chinese will have more 181 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: influence in Europe, but it won't be um all one way. 182 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,120 Speaker 1: The Europeans are gonna push back, at least in some areas. 183 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 1: The other point I think ought to be made this 184 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: is the seventieth anniversary of NATO. The head of NATO 185 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: is coming to the US in early April. We ought 186 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: to really realize that Europe, with all the internal difficulties 187 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 1: it's having, and with the fact that the Chinese are 188 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: trying to strengthen their ties and the Russians are trying 189 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 1: to undermine unity in Europe and transatlantic unity. This maybe 190 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: the celebration of the seventh anniversary of NATO, maybe an 191 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: oprogade for the US once again to reassert the value 192 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: and the importance of our relationship with Europe, both politically 193 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: and from a security point of view and economically. So 194 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: we shouldn't let all these things just drift by us. 195 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 1: This ought to be a priority for us if we 196 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: want to play a major role is a great power 197 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 1: in the future. Europe is our major ally, both Britain 198 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 1: and the continent. We have to figure out, particularly through 199 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: NATO but elsewhere, how to how to strengthen these ties. 200 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: So I felt the President of the United States just 201 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: got a victory lap home. Does that shape his approach 202 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,599 Speaker 1: abroad in any way, shape or form. I think it 203 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 1: probably will convince some people abroad who maybe we're wondering 204 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: what the outcome was going to be, that he's going 205 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:55,079 Speaker 1: to be around for uh for at least two years 206 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:58,439 Speaker 1: and maybe more UM, And I think they're gonna have 207 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: to take him um more seriously in some areas. At 208 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: least his endurance will be something they're going to really 209 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: focus onto a greater degree, And it probably strengthens his 210 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: hand um in in some respects. On the other hand, 211 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 1: at the very same time, the weekending of the American 212 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: economy UM, the Chinese are looking at that and saying, well, 213 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,599 Speaker 1: perhaps the Americans now need to deal with us to 214 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 1: a greater degree than they did a few weeks ago. 215 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: So that while the Chinese economy seems to be strengthening, 216 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: the American economy seems due weekending, and that despite the 217 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: positive benefit for the president of what was announced by 218 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: the by at least Secretary bar current General bar Um, 219 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 1: the the economics may be convincing other countries that g 220 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,839 Speaker 1: the Americans don't necessarily have the future to prosperity for 221 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 1: the indefinite period of years. Never enough time. Please come 222 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: back for a three hour interview, John, and I would 223 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 1: like to go on this week to go for Do 224 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:59,199 Speaker 1: you ever talk about inflation adjust at yields? I do. 225 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,199 Speaker 1: I'm paying a lot of attention to them because I 226 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: think that the conversation you had with Tony a little 227 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: while ago, it was a very interesting thing. Neal curve 228 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: always gives certain signals the question of how you read them, 229 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: and I recommend that you attend the really yield. It's 230 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:17,199 Speaker 1: a television program on Bloomberg Television, John Farrell doing fucking 231 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: in the way your show. I'd love to I'd love 232 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: to do this. I think I also think that we're 233 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:30,840 Speaker 1: probably not able to measure UH inflation version. I thought 234 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: you're gonna mention Pharaoh's ratings. This is Bloomberg. It is 235 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 1: always good to speak to Mary Lovely of Syracuse University 236 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 1: and the Peterson Institute. She joins us always on China 237 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: and can address Air China and the President of China. 238 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: Greeting Mr mcquan today, it was really something Mary to 239 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 1: see the image of Air China. I guess their air 240 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 1: force one if you will, dropping down onto Paris. What 241 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 1: does the leadership of China one out of France and 242 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: what do they want out of Europe. Well, they're looking 243 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: for friends everywhere, and they're also to continue to diversify 244 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: uh their portfolio in terms of where they do business, 245 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: how they do business. UH. France, of course is a 246 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: bit important player in Europe, and Europe and Japan have 247 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: both joined with the EU in terms of opposing some 248 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: of China's business practices. So I think a big part 249 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: of his visit will be to continue to establish relationships. UH. 250 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,960 Speaker 1: France also was a player in terms of how the 251 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: world of views the extension of the Belt and Road 252 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 1: Initiative into Europe. As you know, China has reached out 253 00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: to Italy and Italy become part of the Belton Road initiative. 254 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 1: That's a very vague UH notion. Nevertheless, it shows the 255 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:11,520 Speaker 1: expanding geopolitical reach of China into Europe and Uh, China's 256 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: gonna need friends in France and in Germany. It's trying 257 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 1: to taking advantage of a frankmented Europe. Mary, what's your 258 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: rate on that? Uh? I think that China sent when 259 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: it sends his weaknesses, it can use that. But I 260 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 1: think there's a uh, you know, overall arching game here 261 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: that China is playing. And I don't use the word 262 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 1: game pejoratively here. It is reaching out to establish new relationships, 263 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: new markets. Uh. Those two things for China are are 264 00:15:46,360 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: are joined and Uh this may be a good time, 265 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: given that there is um a bit of chaos with 266 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: the Brexit situation and also among the members themselves. Yeah. 267 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: But the point Mary, and you just nailed it is 268 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: the timeline President. She is landing in Paris or landing 269 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: here there with a timeline not only to be fair 270 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: to the president, completely different than the president, but completely 271 00:16:13,480 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: different than any American president could be. How far divided 272 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 1: are the timelines of China and Asia from the timelines 273 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: of an American leader. Well, we know an American leader's timeline, 274 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: Uh can't really extend past four years because they have 275 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: the elections coming out China. Of course, the president of China, 276 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: she Jimping has been already been UH appointed president for life, 277 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 1: so his his timeline certainly does not is not limited 278 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 1: by the next election. China has some very definite time constraints. 279 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 1: One is of course, the fact that while its population 280 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: is young right now, it will it has already UH 281 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: the labor force has already seas growing population, will see 282 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 1: growing in in fact against decline and will age rather rapidly. 283 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: And so you know she's basic impacts, which is to 284 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 1: upgrade Chinese UH industry and services. UH does have in 285 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: some sense a ticking clock behind it, which is the 286 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: need to perform the The Chinese Communist Party is based 287 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 1: on performance legitimacy, that is, it needs to show that 288 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: it can manage the economy well reviewed as legitimate. So 289 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 1: he has to continue to deliver wage increases, particularly to 290 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 1: those who have been left out and of the reform 291 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,120 Speaker 1: and opening growth of the last particularly over the last 292 00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 1: ten years, and he has to provide the upgrades that 293 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: will allow workers to be even more productive in the future. 294 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: Mary Tom and I've had a few people come on 295 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 1: this program over the last couple of weeks talking about 296 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 1: the pressure, the immense pressure that the Chinese leader is 297 00:17:55,080 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 1: coming under domestically. Can you talk to that a little bit, Mary, Well, 298 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: there is pressure for him domestically. Uh, it's not only 299 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: the the trade world that certainly adds to it. Um. 300 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: He's also used in several very vigorous campaigns, including that 301 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: of reducing debt levels, and of course the ongoing anti 302 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 1: corruption campaign. We had quite a chilling impact on uh, 303 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 1: the bureaucracy, UH and among private sector firms. So I 304 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: think that uh, he does have pressure. People are worried 305 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 1: as he is he taking the right approach. He has 306 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: been criticized at least about the upfrontness of them trying 307 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 1: to dominate in certain industries. But he has a tremendous 308 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 1: amount of leverage and a tremendous amount of power. So 309 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,479 Speaker 1: I think we'll see over the next few years if 310 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 1: he can deliver and he can turn it around, those 311 00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,360 Speaker 1: those qualms will will go away. Mary, Thank you so much, 312 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 1: very lovely with a Pierson Institute and update on China 313 00:18:55,800 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 1: as we see President shifas a paris right now. A 314 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 1: gentleman who was high above Cayuga's waters playing football years ago. 315 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: We will not speak Paul, I'm Cornell basketball. It was 316 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: an off year about and off here, but we complete 317 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 1: with Douglas can speak rather with Doug Thornell this morning 318 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: about Washington, UH, And well, Doug, you were a communications director, 319 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:41,760 Speaker 1: a gentleman of message for many affiliated Democratic institutions. What 320 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 1: are the Democrats getting wrong this morning? Obviously it's a 321 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 1: polarized Washington. We know the Democrat message, we know the 322 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:56,120 Speaker 1: Trumpian message. What are the Democrats getting wrong right now? Well, 323 00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 1: Tom and Paul, it's great to be with you. UM, 324 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,720 Speaker 1: I would I wouldn't jump any UH conclusion at this 325 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: point that they're getting anything wrong. I think that they're 326 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,359 Speaker 1: they're among the Democratic leadership. I think they're taking the 327 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: right approach in terms of calling for UH the ability 328 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 1: to see the entire Modo report. Transparency is very important. 329 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats voted overwhelmingly for the report to be 330 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: made public and the underlying documents to be made public. 331 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: I think that's really important. I do think that Democrats, UH, 332 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: particularly on the campaign trail, they didn't hitch their wagon 333 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 1: to the Russia collusion case against Trump. When they're when 334 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 1: they're in Iowa and when they're in New Hampshire, South Carolina, 335 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 1: they've been talking about a lot of other issues. They've 336 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 1: been talking about the economy, they've been talking about education, 337 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 1: healthcare costs, uh and and in fact, that's what we 338 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 1: won our majority on in two thousand eighteens. So I 339 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 1: think Democrats would be I think it's very important that 340 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 1: Democrats remember what led them to the majority, which was 341 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 1: the kitchen table. Is US healthcare costs, um prescription drug costs, jobs, wages. 342 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,120 Speaker 1: That's how we were able to flip forty Republican seats. 343 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,600 Speaker 1: And I think that's really where the focus should remain 344 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 1: because that's what most people care about. So, Doug, the 345 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 1: Muller report came out probably as well as the President 346 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,720 Speaker 1: could have reasonably expected. So the question for the Democrats, 347 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 1: arguably at least initially, is how aggressive should the Democrats 348 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 1: be in pushing for full disclosure of the report or 349 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,760 Speaker 1: should they just move on? I think they should be aggressive. 350 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: I think first of all, he wasn't exonerated by Mueller 351 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 1: on the obstruction charge. That's clearly stated. But the reality 352 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: is is what we're reading is the Bar Report. It's 353 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,119 Speaker 1: a Bar summary of the Mueller Report. I think you know, 354 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 1: there was a lot of time, effort and money, taxpayer 355 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 1: dollars spent on this investigation. I think everyone should be 356 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: able to see it, whatever it may say. Um. And 357 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: certainly the White House is pleased with the overall findings. Uh, 358 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:02,160 Speaker 1: but I don't think that's any excuse not to make 359 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: as much of the Republican as much of the report public, 360 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: because remember it's not the investigation wasn't checked into Trump 361 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 1: and collusion. It was also into Russians at the Russian 362 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,440 Speaker 1: interference in our election. And I think we really do 363 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,240 Speaker 1: need to know everything that occurred so that happen again. 364 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:25,639 Speaker 1: I well, Duck ducknell s K. D. Nickerbocker in his 365 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 1: history years working with Howard Dean? What were you doing 366 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: with Howard Dean? Were you just out of Cornell? That's 367 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 1: a few years ago, you know. Yeah, No, I had 368 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: been out of Cornell for about four or five years. 369 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: I had been hired to be a traveling press secretary. 370 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 1: Very cool. Yeah, So I started with him, um right 371 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 1: around you know, he was he had he had emerged, 372 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: he um at you know, was he he had just 373 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: he was actually he had not received alcor if you 374 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 1: guys remember al Gore gave him this endorsement. As thought 375 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: the race was over with, I started right before that, 376 00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,439 Speaker 1: so I took up with him all over the country. 377 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,000 Speaker 1: Let's come to the chase, Dug Thornell Howard Dean is 378 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 1: not a socialist. Al Gore is not a socialist. You 379 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:08,600 Speaker 1: work with Mr Holland van Holland, He's not a socialist. 380 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,240 Speaker 1: What is a guy like you steeped in the modern 381 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 1: Democratic party? What do you think about the democratic, socialist, 382 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: social democratic tendencies of four out of five presidential candidates 383 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 1: that we're seeing. Well, I mean, I'm a I'm a progressive, 384 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:29,040 Speaker 1: I'm a capitalist, and I believe that the system isn't 385 00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 1: working for everyone though, and I think that we've got 386 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 1: to figure out how we can level the playing field. 387 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,399 Speaker 1: How does that's where most of our Democrats are? I 388 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 1: think Kamala Harris, I think Joe Biden, if you were 389 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 1: to that's right where I wanted to go. What's your 390 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,360 Speaker 1: advice to Joe Biden to distance himself from what we've 391 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: seen over the last six weeks. I think, just be yourself. 392 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 1: I think this notion of people trying to you know, 393 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,920 Speaker 1: I think that there is, uh there's a premium that 394 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,959 Speaker 1: I think voters placed on authenticity. So be yourself. Uh, 395 00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: you know, he you know there was. I think it's 396 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:02,639 Speaker 1: important that you know, if you're asked a simple question 397 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: like if you're a capitalist or not, I mean yes, 398 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 1: be able to say, yes, I'm a capitalist, but I 399 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 1: believe that the system isn't working for everyone and we 400 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 1: need to make some significant reforms. So the most important 401 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: thing for Joe Biden, I think the most important thing 402 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 1: for all of these candidates is be yourself. Don't necessary 403 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 1: don't change in order to sort of follow the you know, 404 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 1: where where you think voters are or what the you know, 405 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,400 Speaker 1: what the sentiment is on Twitter. Be yourself, the authentic. 406 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 1: You will be rewarded for that, as you're not going 407 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: to get you know you you're not necessarily gonna be 408 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 1: popular with everyone. But be yourself. That I think is 409 00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: the most critical thing in a campaign. Right, So, don't 410 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,479 Speaker 1: you think the Democrats this time around, given how far 411 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,400 Speaker 1: they least are starting off left of center tended, will 412 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 1: the Democrats uh nominate a centrist candidate or where do 413 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: you think they're gonna go with this? Well? I think 414 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 1: it's important to remember that in all primaries, whether it's 415 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 1: Republican or Democrat, there's this There there is a tendency 416 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 1: in the beginning of the race for candidates to move 417 00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 1: to either their left or right uh and talk about 418 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,280 Speaker 1: issues that are really important to the base, and then 419 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 1: at some point come back to the middle. I think 420 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 1: we've seen that in really just about um, you know, 421 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:16,439 Speaker 1: almost all of the presidential races that we've seen UM 422 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: in quite some time, and then also in pubinatorial and 423 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: center races. So I suspect, well, if there's a there's 424 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 1: a significant number of Democrats who want someone who uh 425 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: is who can beat Trump, and if they disagree with 426 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,480 Speaker 1: them on certain issues, that's okay. The premium is on 427 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,680 Speaker 1: beating Trump. And if that's a person who happens to 428 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 1: be maybe a bit more in the middle, then so 429 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 1: be it. You know. I think the most important thing 430 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: is we've got to nominate the right person who can 431 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: bring people together, who can both excite the base, motivate 432 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,000 Speaker 1: the base, but also appeal to a lot of voters 433 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,400 Speaker 1: that were disenchanted with the party in two thousands sixteen 434 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,400 Speaker 1: but we were able to win back in So those 435 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,919 Speaker 1: are the suburban voters, also blue collar voters. So if 436 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 1: you can if you have that, if you have that 437 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 1: magic recipe in terms of motivating the base and then 438 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 1: also appealing to folks who were disenchanted with us in 439 00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 1: and I think you're gonna win. So, Doug from the 440 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: Democratic UM Party perspective, how quickly would you like to 441 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 1: see this huge field of contenders bewhittled down to a 442 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:26,040 Speaker 1: more manageable number. That's a good question. I think the 443 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 1: first debates are gonna be coming in June. We also 444 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 1: have I think the most the most important date coming 445 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:37,360 Speaker 1: up is this first UH financial reporting period, and we're 446 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 1: going to see how people are doing who have gotten 447 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: in UH. I don't think that's gonna win O anyone out, 448 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 1: but it will certainly establish who is being who is 449 00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 1: able to raise UM, you know, the funds they need, 450 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,400 Speaker 1: and then I the debates will have that um effect 451 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,200 Speaker 1: to early on. I don't expect anyone to leave the 452 00:26:55,320 --> 00:27:00,560 Speaker 1: race though, until you know, until next fall or really winter. 453 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,960 Speaker 1: I just there's nothing, there's no reason for them to, 454 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,840 Speaker 1: especially if they're able to get free media, you know, 455 00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: during the debates. I I expect this field to expand, 456 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,920 Speaker 1: not contract anytime, you know, over the next few months. 457 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,160 Speaker 1: This has been wonderful. Duck Turnell, thank you so much 458 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,680 Speaker 1: with this Katie Nickerbocker and uh, just an earned and 459 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,159 Speaker 1: younger legend in terms of servicing the Democratic Party. We 460 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 1: look forward Duck Turnell to speaking to you studios in 461 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 1: Washington again. Paul I had like eighteen more questions for 462 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 1: Mr Thornell ectly there and just where to go because 463 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 1: it's a great story came out of Sidwell and and 464 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: um uh Cornell playing football there and he just went 465 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:45,040 Speaker 1: to work. You know, there was nothing fancy about it. 466 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,680 Speaker 1: People out the politics and their blood and they think 467 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: they go right to the big games. Thanks for listening 468 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 469 00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:04,960 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 470 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You 471 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,280 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.