WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance: BlackRock's Russ Koesterich

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<v Speaker 1>We begin with our top story, coming off the back

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<v Speaker 1>of a cell off in both stocks and bombs, traders

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<v Speaker 1>pushing back FED rate cup bets following a hot CPI report.

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<v Speaker 1>Rouss COASTERO of Black Rock holding on to June, saying

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<v Speaker 1>this the CPI print illustrates while inflation is desalarrating, it

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<v Speaker 1>will not be a straight path. We continue to believe

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<v Speaker 1>that June is the most likely month for the FED

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<v Speaker 1>to begin cutting. We expect three rather than four to

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<v Speaker 1>five cuts this year. Russell pleased to say, join us now,

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<v Speaker 1>so us, let's talk about the data. Let's build on

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<v Speaker 1>yesterday this morning. It's not enough to derail the goldilocks

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<v Speaker 1>soft landing hopes and dreams of twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 2>Again, more on Jonathan, I don't think so.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, the number was a bit hardh just you know,

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<v Speaker 3>to remind everybody we were expecting point three on core.

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<v Speaker 2>We got point three nine, clearly the wrong direction.

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<v Speaker 3>But you know, there is some estimation there around this,

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<v Speaker 3>And I think the broader issue is inflation is hitting lower,

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<v Speaker 3>but there are parts of it on the service side.

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<v Speaker 2>That are sticky.

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<v Speaker 3>We saw that again on owner equivalent equivalent rent.

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<v Speaker 2>And while it is going to go down.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not sliding as fast as the market had expected

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<v Speaker 3>or as quickly as you.

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<v Speaker 2>Needed to.

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<v Speaker 3>Validate that narrative from late twenty twenty three when the

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<v Speaker 3>Fed was going to start cutting in March and they

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<v Speaker 3>were going to cut seven or eight times. We still

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<v Speaker 3>think the Fed will begin cutting late this spring or

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<v Speaker 3>in the summer.

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<v Speaker 2>We still think.

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<v Speaker 3>Three maybe forecasts are likely. But again, it's just not

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<v Speaker 3>going to be a straight line. There are going to

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<v Speaker 3>be months where you get a little bit of a backup,

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<v Speaker 3>So I don't think the narrative changes, but again taking

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<v Speaker 3>some air out of that sort of high expectation we

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<v Speaker 3>had back in late twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 1>Russ, let's take stocks of where the economic mix is

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<v Speaker 1>at the moment. Output data, the economy a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>hotter than we thought it would be, maybe shouter, inflation

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit stickier as well. When you look at

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<v Speaker 1>that as a mix for the time being, is that

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<v Speaker 1>bad for both stocks and bonds or better for one

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<v Speaker 1>versus the other?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it's better for stocks. As the short answer.

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<v Speaker 3>We obviously yesterday was a tough number for the bond

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<v Speaker 3>market to reacted as you'd expect it to.

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<v Speaker 2>Stocks took their queue from bonds. But the flip side

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<v Speaker 2>of this is economy that let's say.

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<v Speaker 3>We get two and a half percent inflation in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four, and we get another two percent growth, which

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<v Speaker 3>might even be on the low side.

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<v Speaker 2>If you've got four and a.

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<v Speaker 3>Half percent nominal GDP, there's a decent shot that Ernie's

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<v Speaker 3>estimates up are probably a bit too low.

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<v Speaker 2>We're actually going to beat that.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that despite yesterday's action of the stock market,

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<v Speaker 3>it's probably.

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<v Speaker 2>Going to be a decent year for US equities.

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<v Speaker 3>We can probably put another six seven eight percent of

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<v Speaker 3>what we've already done year to date, and there's reason

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<v Speaker 3>to stay long equities.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, this really raises a question of which equities in particular,

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<v Speaker 4>because some of the more cyclically exposed stocks, and I'm

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<v Speaker 4>thinking particularly small caps, have gotten more and more beaten

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<v Speaker 4>up the more people push back their expectations for rate cuts.

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<v Speaker 4>When does that stop.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's why small caps are getting beat up.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, last year you had this beta driven rally

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<v Speaker 3>in November December after a tough late summer and fall,

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<v Speaker 3>and small caps benefited. I think the problem for small

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<v Speaker 3>caps right now it's an odd point in the side

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<v Speaker 3>to get long small caps.

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<v Speaker 2>The quality is much lower than the larger the.

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<v Speaker 3>Mega caps, and as we saw again yesterday, they are

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<v Speaker 3>rate sensitive. So if we have an environment where rates

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<v Speaker 3>are not following as quickly as the market believed small

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<v Speaker 3>caps early growth, you know, these parts of the market

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<v Speaker 3>are sensitive.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think the short answered question is what we're doing.

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<v Speaker 2>We're barbelling the portfolio.

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<v Speaker 3>We're still long many of the megacap tech names that

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<v Speaker 3>are high in quality we think benefit from long term

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<v Speaker 3>secular themes, and we're also long higher quality cyclcicles. There's

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<v Speaker 3>still a lot of parts of the market in airlines,

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<v Speaker 3>in autos, and parts of the consumer sector and healthcare

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<v Speaker 3>that are actually pretty cheap despite the premium that the

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<v Speaker 3>market trades at large, parts of the market were left

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<v Speaker 3>behind last year, and there are some value there.

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<v Speaker 4>How underweight bonds are you, because you do see that

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<v Speaker 4>as sort of the underperforming sector in a scenario that

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<v Speaker 4>you just put out there.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, we are still a little bit underweight bonds, you

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<v Speaker 3>know our main fund, you know, call it maybe half

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<v Speaker 3>a year relatived or our benchmark. So we have been cautious.

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<v Speaker 3>We do think that spread assets still look good. You

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<v Speaker 3>can carry in the portfolio well, something we probably have

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<v Speaker 3>not been able to say for fifteen years. But the

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<v Speaker 3>long end of the curve in particular, we've remained cautious.

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<v Speaker 3>Part of it is, you know, the over optimism about

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<v Speaker 3>when the FED is going to cut and how much.

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<v Speaker 2>Another part of that is supply. We're still in an.

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<v Speaker 3>Environment where you've got a significant amount of supply with

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<v Speaker 3>some of the actors backing away in terms of who's

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<v Speaker 3>buying MA so still a bit underweight bonds again, with

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<v Speaker 3>most of them underweight, concentrated on the long end of

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<v Speaker 3>the treasury curve.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks the question, Russ, when do you start getting interested

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<v Speaker 1>for fifty for seventy five you went in for five

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<v Speaker 1>percent again.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I think it's a good question. I don't

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<v Speaker 3>think you know four fifty. I mean, you get it's

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<v Speaker 3>always dependent upon the context. And obviously if you're printing

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<v Speaker 3>hot on inflation, you know that that number goes up,

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<v Speaker 3>but you know it's a rough estimate.

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<v Speaker 2>Yah.

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<v Speaker 3>I think if you got to four fifty, it starts

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<v Speaker 3>to get a more a bit more interesting because we

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<v Speaker 3>do think inflation is heading down.

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<v Speaker 2>We do think you're going.

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<v Speaker 3>To see cornflation probably in the two to two and

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<v Speaker 3>a half percent range by the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 3>So if the market gives you an opportunity and you're

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<v Speaker 3>seeing four point fifty, then I do think it becomes

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<v Speaker 3>a bit.

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<v Speaker 2>More interesting relative to where we were a couple of

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<v Speaker 2>months ago.

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<v Speaker 4>Russ, what do you do on a daylight today or

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<v Speaker 4>at daylight yesterday? I should say, are you the kind

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<v Speaker 4>of person that says, Okay, sell off, this is a dip,

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<v Speaker 4>it's viable. Or are you the kind of person that says,

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<v Speaker 4>you know what, we have our allocations, just stay steady

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<v Speaker 4>and see how things go.

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I think the market did give you some opportunities yesterday.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, particularly in the morning of the late afternoon.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, that's a pretty dramatic sell off. There were

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<v Speaker 3>parts of the market that, you know, you may want

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<v Speaker 3>to go back and then take a look at.

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<v Speaker 2>But I do think that the narrative did not change yesterday.

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<v Speaker 3>It reminded us that the path down in inflation is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be bumpy.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not a straight line.

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<v Speaker 3>But we still believe the economy is a good shape

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<v Speaker 3>and inflation's heading lower. So I think the short answer

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<v Speaker 3>is you mostly stick to your plan.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about your plan with regards to equities and

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<v Speaker 1>finish on that over white and equities that you would

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<v Speaker 1>talk to Lisa A. Bantu. Is the US still the

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<v Speaker 1>only game in town?

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<v Speaker 3>It don't is the only game in town, and we

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<v Speaker 3>actually also have an overweighted Japanese equities, which you've been

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<v Speaker 3>addressing for the first time.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know, take your pick years decades.

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<v Speaker 3>But I do think the US is the best game

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<v Speaker 3>in town, and there are a couple of reasons for that.

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<v Speaker 2>The US is still the most resilient economy.

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<v Speaker 3>We're seeing that every day with the economic data generally

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<v Speaker 3>coming in strong.

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<v Speaker 2>But beyond that, you know, we still like this theme

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<v Speaker 2>of quality.

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<v Speaker 3>We like consistency, we like profitability, and we looked throughout

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<v Speaker 3>the world we look for companies that have those characteristics.

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<v Speaker 2>We still find more of them in the United States.

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<v Speaker 3>And tech and healthcare and consumer discretionary than anywhere else

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<v Speaker 3>in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>I've Russ got to catch out, Russ constrict that of

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<v Speaker 1>Black Rock