WEBVTT - 3 Million Vaccine Doses Ready To Go Out Next Week: JHU's Sauer 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 0:00:04.160 --> 0:00:06.200 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.360 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:13.560 along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.400 and on Bloomberg dot com. It's a weekly visit with 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:23.639 Lauren's sour Time and it's always something we look forward to. 0:00:23.720 --> 0:00:27.240 Lauren's assistant professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins University, 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.720 which of course is assisted by the philanthropic efforts of 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:34.680 the owner of this radio station. But Lauren, thanks for joining. 0:00:34.880 --> 0:00:37.600 Very thrilled today because Reuters is rewarding that the first 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.440 doses of vaccine could be dished out to seniors and 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:45.920 nursing facilities and nursing homes December twenty one. What's your reaction? 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:49.080 You know, I think we all needed a bit of 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:51.879 good news, and we all were watching with um a 0:00:51.920 --> 0:00:54.840 lot of anticipation to see how the meeting went yesterday 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:57.160 with the SBA, and so it's just great to see 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:01.080 everyone collectively working towards this emergency use off rezation the 0:01:01.120 --> 0:01:03.720 outcome looks promising. I think we're waiting to see the 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:07.480 final details of what will be within the Emergency Use authorization, 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.080 and then we're hoping to see you know, almost three 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:14.839 million doses go out sometime early this next week. So, Lauren, 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:18.000 there's an interesting fascinating story on the Bloomberg terminal today 0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:21.959 saying how the US ranks thirty second in vaccine buys 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:26.760 on a per capita basis. UM, where are you? Where 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:28.399 do you think the US is in terms of having 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:34.320 a proper supply, sufficient supply of vaccines to vaccinate its 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:38.559 population as I guess, you know, quickly as possible. Yeah, 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:40.959 I think we would like to see, Um, we would 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:42.880 we would have liked to see more doses secured, but 0:01:42.959 --> 0:01:46.520 the the challenge will be an administration. So the one 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:49.960 benefit of this UM somewhat slower rollout will be that 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:54.080 we really are very careful with these initial doses. UM. 0:01:54.120 --> 0:01:57.040 I think I saw that about two point and nine millions, 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:00.400 So the of the initial available six point form million 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:03.880 fiser doses will go out UM in this you know, 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:06.480 hopefully early this week, and that will give us time 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:10.800 to really UM perspect the supply chain and the distribution. UH, 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:13.680 as everyone knows us and find now the Fiser vaccine 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:17.880 has some challenging cold chain storage, some challenging distribution issues, 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:22.200 and so UM using this time to start a little 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:24.160 bit slow, not super slow. I mean, we have a 0:02:24.480 --> 0:02:27.840 vaccine in the year which is absolutely incredible UM to 0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:29.440 to really make sure that we're not going to waste 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:31.520 any doses, that we have a plan for how we're 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:35.080 accessing these harder to reach populations, UM, that we're getting 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:37.040 it to the people who need it most right now 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:40.120 is critical. I do think that there's going to be 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:42.720 a need for massive scale up UM that we're not 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:46.919 really quite ready for UM and and I haven't seen 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.680 that story yet, but it does make sense to me 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:53.040 that we will need to improve UM that capacity. I 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:56.720 think as more vaccines come online, particularly ones with more 0:02:56.760 --> 0:03:00.800 improved cold chain storage issues, UM, we'll see that number 0:03:00.880 --> 0:03:04.000 tick up. Is there any reason to suspect that it 0:03:04.000 --> 0:03:05.840 will be difficult to scale that up? And given the 0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:10.000 difficulties we had, you know, bringing in PPE for example, 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:14.480 or other sorts of things that we needed very badly 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:17.520 earlier in the year, Yeah, it's I mean, that's a 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:19.600 great question. I think it's something that we're all a 0:03:19.639 --> 0:03:21.960 little bit worried about. You know, we have not seen 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:28.360 significant changes to how our national supply chain has improved. 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:32.040 We have a little bit of improved PPE situations, but 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.600 we're still having tons of challenges with not with national 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.560 level testing, with a you know, a national level strategy 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:41.840 for testing, a national level strategy for resource allocation. Um, 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:44.160 and this is this is no different where relying on 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:47.120 the States to truly figure this out. And um, we're 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:49.760 getting support, but but the scale up is going to 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.080 be critical, and I think we'd like to see more 0:03:52.080 --> 0:03:56.000 activity maybe around the Defense Production Act, around um, some 0:03:56.120 --> 0:04:00.560 alternatives to production scale up. And then um, you know 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:02.840 many of us are seeing backups in our ability to 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:07.040 obtain freezers and dry ice and so these all have 0:04:07.160 --> 0:04:10.640 to be worked out in these next few weeks or else. Um, 0:04:10.680 --> 0:04:13.440 it doesn't matter how much vaccine we produced, we won't 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:17.000 be able to distribute it basically and effectively. So Lauren, 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:19.480 I guess initially here the market's going to look like, 0:04:19.800 --> 0:04:22.400 you know, the demand for these vaccines is going to 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.560 exceed the supply. But at some point presumably next year, 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:28.080 mid next year, you know that that dynamical kind of 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:32.080 change and we'll have plenty supply, and the question will be, UM, 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:35.279 will enough people want to take the vaccine? Do you 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:38.760 expect at some point some type of public relations campaign 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:41.880 may be needed to to get people to convince them 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.680 to in fact take the vaccine so that we as 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:48.800 a siety can achieve her community. Yeah, I mean, I 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:52.120 absolutely think that. I think rebuilding the trust in science 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:54.640 across our country is going to be incredibly important in 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:58.159 these early weeks of vaccine distribution. I think people trust 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:01.800 their primary care providers, people us UM individuals they know 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:05.560 we're getting the vaccines UM to be spokespeople. But that's 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:07.680 a heavy burden on the people who are getting these 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:10.880 first rounds of vaccine UM. So we can't put all 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:13.920 of that reliance on them. We have to build UM 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:18.400 an education campaign and a trust building campaign and roll 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:20.800 it out as soon as possible. We can't wait until 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:23.479 we already have the vaccine ready to go UM. And 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:26.120 I actually think that there we're going to see a 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.000 little bit of this in this these first two phases. 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:31.160 So I think there will be health care workers who 0:05:31.160 --> 0:05:33.400 are hesitant, and I think there will be elderly and 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:37.080 vulnerable populations who are hesitant to receive vaccine, and I 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:40.000 think we need to we we many people have already 0:05:40.040 --> 0:05:41.960 started working in this space, but we need to have 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:46.680 this as a primary focus, not a secondary focus to production. Yeah, 0:05:46.680 --> 0:05:48.359 because we do have a couple of days head start 0:05:48.400 --> 0:05:50.600 on the UK, but there are some reports out of 0:05:50.600 --> 0:05:53.480 the UK that might make people a little more hesitant 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:57.360 allergic reactions and so on. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean 0:05:57.400 --> 0:05:59.960 I think everyone is watching the UK with sort of 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.000 fat breath to see what happens, and we have to 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:06.360 be prepared to learn, you know, in real time from 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:11.240 what's happening there and um and apply very rapidly lessons learned. 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:13.320 And I think that will happen even within the process 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:17.359 of writing out the eu A building distribution strategies, you know, 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:19.680 all of those things will be impacted by what's happening 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:22.240 right now in the in the UK. Hey, Lauren, thank 0:06:22.240 --> 0:06:24.480 you so much once again for joining us. Always appreciate 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:27.680 your perspective. Laurence so our associate Professor of Eburgency Medicine 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.200 at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, joining us for 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:36.000 the weekly discussion of COVID and the vaccine. It's time 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:39.200 to bring in Barry Rittle's expert opinion provider, and he 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:41.719 is a great column ount today. Of course, Barry, just 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:45.000 to remind everybody, is a Bloomberg Opinion contributor, also founder 0:06:45.000 --> 0:06:47.760 of Rittle's Wealth Management and the host of Masters in 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:51.719 Business on Bloomberg Radio. So, Barry, I presume that you've 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:57.679 been watching this week's activities with absolute combinations of disgust, horror, 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:01.320 all the amusement, just like the rest of us. You 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:04.120 have a great column today saying that Airbnb in door 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:08.240 dash Show caused the best and worst of Uber. Explain 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:12.680 what you mean. Sure, we'll start with the basic model 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:16.200 that Uber created. You know, we all got consumed by 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:22.360 the frat house and the Travis getting thrown out as 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:26.480 as CEO. But really they created a fascinating model where 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:31.280 they identified a massive inefficiency in a high margin business. 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:35.000 They created an app that made it really easy for 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:39.960 consumers to consume those services. And you know we've all 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:43.680 used the Uber app. Uh, the ability to say I 0:07:43.720 --> 0:07:45.760 want a small car, I want a big truck, I 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.400 want a luxury car, and track when it's going to 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:51.840 arrive and and not have to mess around with cash 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:56.280 or anything. That they just made that sort of transportation 0:07:56.400 --> 0:08:00.320 service so much better than it was. And both door 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:06.760 dash and Airbnb have followed that same basic process. Um. 0:08:06.760 --> 0:08:13.600 With Airbnb, it's a massive addressable margin with an average 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:18.200 transaction price of a hundred and sixty dollars and a 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:22.680 an enormous profit margin. Uh. The problem with door dash 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:26.880 is that we can't say the same thing. So it's 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:30.240 interesting here Yet investors feel, what what do you make 0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:33.240 I guess of the market this week and and the 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:37.040 the markets willingness to bid these stocks up so dramatically, 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:39.040 What did you take away from it? I you know, 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:43.320 someone saying that the bankers really blew it here. Um. 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:46.040 You know, how often do the bankers get it right 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:49.920 and and be aware there's a ton of hindsight bias 0:08:50.000 --> 0:08:53.679 involved when oh, you should have priced it higher. Well, yeah, 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:57.120 you say that after the fact, so to be fair 0:08:57.200 --> 0:09:00.800 to the bankers. Yeah, it's it's easy to tell what 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:04.719 the demand is after the fact, but very often the 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:12.040 companies want to really high um number. The bankers want 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:17.040 to make sure that there's enough appeal um in the shares, 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.760 that there's demand not only for the I p O shares, 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:23.319 but the quote unquote shoe that comes out afterwards the 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:26.800 subsequent shares that the bank seals, and and they want 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.000 to create a little excitement and buzz around the name, 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:32.439 and and you know, you could argue they could have 0:09:32.520 --> 0:09:39.680 priced this ten twenty higher. Um. Ultimately, the founders, the shareholders, 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:43.920 they all benefit the insiders. So the company ends up 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:47.720 with the four or five billion dollars in cash instead 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:50.720 of six or seven billion dollars in cash. In the 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:53.120 scheme of things, when the price runs up, if they 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:55.920 want to do a secondary uh in six months and 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:59.680 put some more stock out, it's certainly an option. The 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:02.080 clue sitial. I suppose really that we'll have to wait 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:05.480 some time to see the answer to is can these companies, 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:08.600 you know, have a quarter off a quarter of revenue 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:14.560 growth and profit berry well, for Airbnb with the much 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:19.120 higher transaction price, I mean, you could go look at 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:23.280 homes for rent for two three four thousand dollars a 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:28.280 night on Airbnb. What's the most expensive pizza you're gonna 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.920 get delivered from from door dash. That's the big difference 0:10:31.920 --> 0:10:35.000 between the two business models. They both are sort of 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:39.000 positioning themselves as pandemic plays. Hey, get out of the city, 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.880 get out of your apartment, come rent a place out 0:10:41.880 --> 0:10:45.080 in the burbs, or where you can drive. You don't 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.000 have to go through t s A or on a plane, 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.160 drive to an airbnb and and you know, wait out. 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:53.520 The pandemic seemed to be a pretty good line that 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:59.400 that investors UM brought into door Dash and some of 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:02.560 their compared it is like Uber eats and and grubhub 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:04.840 and all the others. There's been a series of mergers there. 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:08.400 I don't even know who's who anymore, but UM they 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:12.120 also try to make that same sort of pandemic. Hey, 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:13.880 you don't have to go out to eat. You know, 0:11:13.960 --> 0:11:16.520 we'll do a touch free delivery, you pay for it 0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:18.640 on the credit card, will leave it on your doorstep. 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.800 And you know that they certainly have been growing very 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:27.280 very quickly. The differences the people I know who are 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:32.080 who are currently using airbnb. UM. Almost to a person, 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:34.640 everyone says, of course, we're going to continue using it 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:40.000 after the pandemic. The food delivery services are a short 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:45.079 term substitute for going to a restaurant, and I suspect 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:49.440 that post pandemic, the various food delivery aps and and 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:51.920 that certainly includes do our Dash and all the rest 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:55.400 we have to presume there's going to be some sort 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:59.080 of fall off in usage. The question is is it modest? 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.640 Is it big? Is it giant? I don't think it's modest. 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:05.840 I think it's going to be more substantial than that. Yeah, Barry, 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.319 I actually I agree with your analysis of door Dash there, 0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:11.400 and again I was, I guess surprised at how well 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:15.040 embraced UH that I PA was in evaluation. It's garnering. 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.520 So that brings me to my my question, Barry, are 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.920 you drawing any conclusions as it relates to the state 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.040 of the overall equity markets about how these two deals 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:26.880 were received and how they are being valid as it 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:29.920 suggests you maybe a certain level of frothiness in the market, 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:33.920 akin to maybe what we've seen in some past bubbles. Um. So, 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.880 frothy is a great word because it doesn't commit you 0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:40.280 to saying that this can't continue any further. So I'm 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:44.520 with you on that. And and remember Alan Greenspan's infamous 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:48.240 irrational zuberan speech in the middle of the dot com 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:53.480 boom that eventually blew up. That was if you were 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:57.000 a seller on that speech, you missed an ungodly amount 0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:00.600 of gains over the next four years. Remember a market 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:05.520 didn't peak until March two thousand, so frothiness. And we 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:09.720 certainly have seen this in in some back issuance UM 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:16.240 and some bit Clean Person and other crypto related UM items. Yeah, 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:20.800 there's definitely some speculation going out there. And I'm not 0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:24.720 in the camp that wants to blame Robin Hood on everything. 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:29.600 That's an aspect of it. Boredom, people lacking the ability 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.520 to go out and play, to go to casinos to 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:37.160 watch you know, sports. We we keep watching one football game, 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:41.599 whether it's college or or professional, after another get canceled. 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.600 So you know, you have a lot of people who 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:49.400 are homeboard that might count for some of this um 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.800 and and you know, it's been such a long time 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:57.520 since we've had a sexy, exciting run of I p 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:01.160 O S. Companies have been staying private yea for longer. 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:05.160 You know, Airbnb is a perfect example. That's a fairly 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:10.760 mature company that has um both strong revenue and and 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:14.800 profit growth. And you know, they had a few missteps 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.120 in the beginning of the pandemic, and they writed the 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:20.280 filter pretty quickly. They did pivot pretty quickly. Barry Riddh Holtz, 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:22.120 thanks so much. For joining us here. Barry ridh Holts, 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:25.160 Bloomberg Opinion calumnists and host of Masters in Business on 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:28.800 Bloomberg Radio also found their chairman and chief investment officer 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.640 of rid Holts Wealth Management, giving us his thoughts on 0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:36.480 the markets. Well, I'm sending a trend here in the 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:39.720 world of business. First it was Stevie Nicks selling part 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:43.760 of her catalog to some investors for about a hundred 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:47.880 million dollars, and then just recently Bob Dylan selling his 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:50.720 catalog to Universal Music Group for what is expected to 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:53.600 be at least two hundred million dollars. What is going 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:55.640 on here when we know we have somebody who has 0:14:55.920 --> 0:15:01.000 the answers. Lucas Shaw, Bloomberg Entertainment reporter joins us here. So, Lucas, 0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:02.480 it seems to be a trend here is maybe some 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:07.120 of these aging artists really cashing out here. Yeah, you know, 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.440 they are seizing on something that that has really been 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:13.720 happening in the music business now for three to five years, 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.840 which is that the value of these copyrights has soared 0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:22.280 because of streaming services which have more broadly listed industry 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:25.160 revenues and so and they've also made them a little 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.600 bit more stable, and so that's mein that's meant that 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.040 a lot of other investors have looked at music as 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.600 a really appealing asset after years of dismissing it frankly, 0:15:33.600 --> 0:15:36.760 as an industry that was that was dying um and 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.680 then the pandemic only added fuel to that fire. Because 0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:42.040 you have a lot of artists who might ordinarily be 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:44.960 going out on tour and making money. Instead they're stuck 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:47.120 at home. So they're doing a mix of, Hey, I 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.120 want some extra cash to pay for more X, Y 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.120 and Z, and maybe I'll start planning for whatever my 0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:54.640 future is. In the case of Stevie Nicks and Bob Dylan, 0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:58.920 who are both older in age, lucas, are they going 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:02.200 to get secured tied to these these securities or how 0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.240 does it work? Because I could imagine that in the future, 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:07.800 people are going to be listening to, you know, Bob 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:11.680 Dylan's top you know, boots of Spanish Leather for the 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:15.760 next you know, centuries, but something like Dark Eyes might 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:18.880 get played once in a million years. Yeah, I mean 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:22.200 the thing so what Bob Dylan, and what Bob Dylan 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.000 told was his songwriting catalog, which can make money in 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:28.240 a couple of different ways. You know, songwriters get paid 0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.880 if the music if a song gets listened to on 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.280 a streaming service, or if an album gets purchased, but 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:35.240 they also get paid if song gets played in the radio. 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.840 They also get paid if you do what use uh 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:40.480 perform a sync. You know, you licensed that song for 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.440 an advertisement, for a movie, for a TV show. So 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.480 people can get pretty creative with someone like Dylan as 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.040 you know, you know, people are listening to his music. 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.880 Although he's not a huge act on streaming, I'm sure 0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:54.440 that a lot of his money also comes from licensing 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:58.120 it for for advertisements. Um. You know, you will have 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:01.440 people who will just a math enough assets that they 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.440 think it will be a kind of a consistent generator 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:06.840 of revenue. And we've seen that play out time and 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:08.880 time again in the music business. I mean there are 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.919 um you know, there are investment firms that investment in 0:17:12.920 --> 0:17:16.160 publishing catalogs as well as more traditional music investors. It's 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:20.280 something that has long been seen as a relatively stable 0:17:20.359 --> 0:17:23.879 asset and something that people go to often kind of 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.879 in times of uncertainty in the market, because even as 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.920 people are losing their jobs, they're still listening to the radio, 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:33.440 still listening to music Lucas you know, it's it's interesting. 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:36.400 I followed David Crosby on Twitter and he admitted that 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.640 basically he's going to pursue a similar type of deal 0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:42.480 for his music because because of the pandemic, he's not 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.320 touring and that's a big source of revenue for a 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:50.119 lot of UM music acts and streaming doesn't pay really 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.880 anything at all too publishers and artists, do you think 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:55.479 we're going to see more of this maybe from some 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.600 against some aging acts who may own their catalogs. It's 0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:01.760 a kind of a financial access that. Yeah. I think 0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:05.000 a lot of those acts that have relied on touring 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:08.080 to continue to pay the bills will go this route. 0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:13.440 As he's noted, you know, streaming has generating additional returns 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:17.800 for the broader industry. On an artist by artist basis, 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:20.480 the numbers are pretty small unless you're a Drake or 0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:23.359 a Taylor Swift, or a Post Malone or an Ariana Grande, 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:26.159 especially if you're an aging act. If you're if you're 0:18:26.200 --> 0:18:28.320 a David Crosby, chances are that a lot of your 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:31.399 fans are those that may still not have converted to streaming. 0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:34.439 They're buying physical physical sales have gone off a cliff 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.680 uh during the pandemic, or you're able to get them 0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:39.440 to go and see you perform, and you can't do 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:42.200 that either. So really your only source of money would 0:18:42.240 --> 0:18:45.000 be selling your catalog or if you can get somebody to, 0:18:45.160 --> 0:18:47.680 you know, put an old Crosby Spills Nash and Young 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:50.400 song on the radio. Excuse me? In the TV show 0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:52.639 well speak you of Taylor Swift. What happens when she 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:54.080 gets old and wants to get rid of her is 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:56.399 does she have to? Does she sort of have a 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.119 bidding war between her and the private equity firms that 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:03.439 bought her already recorded songs? Well, so that that's again 0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:06.040 to keep in mind what the people who just bought 0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:09.600 her first six albums, those are the recordings and she 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:13.199 will own her She owns the recordings for all the 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:16.159 new music she's putting out. Universal distributes it, but she 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.560 ultimately owns the master's Does right pervert to her publishing? 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.760 She actually changed her publishers in the last year. She 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.600 used to be at Sony ATV she is now at Universal. 0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:28.040 I don't know the particulars of that deal, but I 0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:30.960 would imagine she worked out sort of more of what's 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:33.840 called an administration or distribution deal, where in the long run, 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:36.400 Taylor Swift can own her music. When you're as powerful 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:38.440 as Taylor Swift or in the case of Bob Dylan, 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.760 you get to demand ownership because everybody wants to work 0:19:41.800 --> 0:19:45.080 with you. So the re recording, Lucas what what what 0:19:45.200 --> 0:19:48.879 does that change for you know, the stream of money 0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:53.320 with the recording her old albums. Yeah, So, because she 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:58.440 does not control the recording rights or the actual recordings 0:19:58.440 --> 0:20:00.439 from her first album, what she would do is she 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.080 can control her publishing right the songs that she wrote. 0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:06.480 She would then make new recordings based off of those 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.399 lyrics and re release it and try to make it 0:20:09.440 --> 0:20:11.639 so that those are the songs that people play. But 0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:14.200 what we don't know is, let's say Taylor Swift does 0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:17.440 end up rereleasing her her first six albums in some form, 0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:21.320 which she has talked about doing. If you're Spotify and 0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:24.479 you're put putting together that this is Taylor Swift playlist, 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:27.000 which is like their equivalent of the best the greatest hits, 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.080 and you want to put one of those early Taylor 0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:33.560 Swift songs, do you pick the one from the initial 0:20:33.600 --> 0:20:35.879 album which is the version that everybody knows, or do 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:38.200 you put the re record on there if you are 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:42.400 putting together some curated playlists for a user who really likes, 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:46.000 you know, who wants to listen to kind of country 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:48.920 pop and that some of those early Taylor Sist songs Again, 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:51.720 which version and that's gonna you know, I'll be very 0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:55.080 curious like to see what the streaming services decided to do, 0:20:55.400 --> 0:21:00.000 because they obviously want to maintain good relations with Taylor Swift, 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:02.720 one of the biggest acts in the world. But there's 0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:05.840 no telling, there's not really a precedent for fans gravitating 0:21:05.880 --> 0:21:09.920 towards the rerecord over the original. Um So it's it's 0:21:09.960 --> 0:21:12.880 a tricky situation and one that you know, we'll learn 0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:15.760 a bit more about when we actually see what Taylor 0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:18.360 Swift is doing with the rerecorded music. In the meantime, 0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:20.880 she just put out her second album of the year 0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:26.440 and album I was listening some of this morning, evermore 0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:32.280 let's give her add while we're at all, right, Lucas 0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:35.720 not note we all sort of drifted off there into 0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:37.560 a little bit of daydreaming as we think of Taylor 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:41.520 Swift on the British Moor's recording music with American pop 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:44.600 stars and uh, you know, getting groups in like Jack 0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:46.159 Aunt and Off and so on to make sure that 0:21:46.200 --> 0:21:50.439 she has another hit record. And uh, Lucas, thank you 0:21:50.520 --> 0:21:52.639 for giving us up to date. Lucas also out with 0:21:52.680 --> 0:21:56.600 the story today about the top streamers and Ariana Grande 0:21:56.680 --> 0:21:59.680 being the top act in the world right now, which 0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:03.080 is fascinating read. So, Lucas, thanks for joining us, and Paul, 0:22:03.240 --> 0:22:07.680 thank you for for indulging me in that last reverie there. 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:13.919 It's amazing story. The economics there, this is Bloomberg. All right. 0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:16.959 Let's get something just a little less optimistic now, and 0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:20.560 that is the one billion empty hotel rooms for the year. 0:22:20.680 --> 0:22:24.160 We've been obviously looking at various numbers throughout this year. 0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:26.199 It's been a year of numbers, and this is not 0:22:26.480 --> 0:22:30.000 one that we enjoy talking about. But Patrick Clark is 0:22:30.000 --> 0:22:31.960 our real estate reporter and he will talk about it 0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:34.800