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Speaker 2: We saw the Texans thump the Dallas Cowboys and I
Speaker 2: got my Draft Kings bet right Houston minus four and
Speaker 2: a half to cover in the first half.
Speaker 3: First play of the.
Speaker 2: Game was actually a touchdown ineligible man downfield. Screw that up,
Speaker 2: but they scored Joe Mixon on a big run after
Speaker 2: that to take a lead. Never look back. I mean,
Speaker 2: the first thing is c J. Stroud has struggled for
Speaker 2: about five weeks, and you can tell why. He's got
Speaker 2: a bad offensive line and golf. They call it the yips.
Speaker 2: He lets go of the ball too quickly. I don't
Speaker 2: worry that he's got more interceptions now than he did
Speaker 2: all of last year, because when he had Stefon Diggs
Speaker 2: and Nico Collins healthy, he was four and one. He's
Speaker 2: still undefeated in division. He's four and four after the
Speaker 2: win over Dallas tonight in the rest of their games.
Speaker 2: I think the Houston Texans are fine. They're the Green
Speaker 2: Bay Packers of the AFC. They're a year away. They
Speaker 2: need another draft. They're a little bit thin. The Packers
Speaker 2: are a little young. Texans are a little thin. They
Speaker 2: both have good young coaches, really good young quarterbacks. They're
Speaker 2: just not ready to beat the Detroits or like the
Speaker 2: Buffalo's in Kansas City's. But it's a good team. And
Speaker 2: don't I don't take anything away from c J.
Speaker 3: Stroud.
Speaker 2: His comp was Jared Goff. Well, if you go back
Speaker 2: to Jared Goff's third year in the NFL, that was McVeigh.
Speaker 2: His passer rating dip to like mid eighties, high eighties,
Speaker 2: and so you know CJ doesn't trust his protection. PFF
Speaker 2: has their O line at like twenty six, twenty seventh.
Speaker 2: His top receiver, Stefon Diggs is out. Nico Collins came
Speaker 2: back tonight. He's been hurt. Nico Collins is amazing. He
Speaker 2: went to Michigan. He was a southern kid from I
Speaker 2: think Alabama, went to Michigan. Productive, but not a superstar
Speaker 2: in college, like mid thirties catches and they got him
Speaker 2: in the third round. And boy, he is a hard guard.
Speaker 2: He is a hard guy to defend it it you know,
Speaker 2: you can tell c J. Stroud and his comp is golf.
Speaker 2: So he's not a playmaker. He's a sit in the
Speaker 2: pocket and throw darts. When Goff's offensive line great, Jared's great.
Speaker 3: His rookie year, c J.
Speaker 2: Stroud had a very good offensive line. He was outstanding.
Speaker 2: Goff and Stroud those were the comps by scouts, and
Speaker 2: it was accurate. CJ moves a little better. But when
Speaker 2: they don't have great protection, they rush things, they throw
Speaker 2: more interceptions. They're just not as on point. And I
Speaker 2: think that's c J. Stroud just needs better protection. He'll
Speaker 2: be fine. I think the Jared Goff comparison's always been true,
Speaker 2: and they have great protection. They're really special.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: It's interesting though, watching the Cowboys. So the Cowboys right now,
Speaker 2: if you go to the current NFL draft order, there's
Speaker 2: five teams with two wins, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Las Vegas Giants,
Speaker 2: and then there's four teams with three wins, the Jets,
Speaker 2: New England, Carolina, and Dallas. Dallas is now at three
Speaker 2: and nine, and so the advantage for Dallas is, Listen,
Speaker 2: they have a chance to end up with just three
Speaker 2: wins now with Cooper Rush. But they played Tommy to
Speaker 2: Veto and the Giants on Thanksgiving, and if they win
Speaker 2: that game, and I think they will, that'll be their
Speaker 2: fourth win. It'll take Dallas out of any shot for
Speaker 2: a first, second, or probably third pick in the draft.
Speaker 2: It's not a particularly strong draft, and they wouldn't take
Speaker 2: Shadu or Sanders anyway. But what I was hoping is
Speaker 2: if Dallas can get into the top five and they
Speaker 2: still have a shot even if they beat the Giants,
Speaker 2: that would be four wins. They also play Carolina. But
Speaker 2: if you're Dallas at this point, this is why the
Speaker 2: New York Giants are not going to go to Drew Locke.
Speaker 2: They're going to Tommy DeVito. They'd rather not win games.
Speaker 2: And the Giants have a real shot because I think Jacksonville, Tennessee,
Speaker 2: and Cleveland are two talented they'll win another game. If
Speaker 2: the Giants get beat by Dallas, there's a real possibility
Speaker 2: they don't win another game, and they have the number
Speaker 2: one pick, and they will absolutely draft shade or Sanders,
Speaker 2: So Dallas. I would draft Shadeur Sanders, but I wouldn't
Speaker 2: sign Dack to a long term contract. But Dallas isn't
Speaker 2: going to draft him. There's some good players in this draft.
Speaker 2: Umber two pick I think will be Kelvin Banks. He's
Speaker 2: an offensive tackle from Texas. Travis Hunter, a very explosive
Speaker 2: player from Colorado, will go second or third. Mason Graham,
Speaker 2: the defensive tackle Michigan. Will Johnson, the corner from Michigan.
Speaker 2: Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from LSU. T Mac the
Speaker 2: wide receiver Arizona, really big target, Southern California kid. He's
Speaker 2: really good player. Cam Ward is going to go somewhere
Speaker 2: in the top ten, although I know little backyard football.
Speaker 2: For me, I wouldn't draft him that high. But it's
Speaker 2: not a great draft. There's a lot of Mchhale Williams
Speaker 2: the defensive edge for Georgia. There's a lot of Georgia
Speaker 2: and Michigan guys in the top twelve, top fifteen.
Speaker 3: Not a great draft.
Speaker 2: And listen, if I was Dallas and I got a
Speaker 2: top five pick, I would move down because I don't
Speaker 2: think they're close to Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City. I
Speaker 2: don't think their rosters close. I don't think one player
Speaker 2: is going to solve it. But if I don't think
Speaker 2: this is a good enough draft where people are going
Speaker 2: to want to move up unless you have a top
Speaker 2: five pick and maybe a top yeah, a top five pick,
Speaker 2: and somebody wants cam Ward, who I think is an
Speaker 2: okay prospect. I think shud Or Sanders is a strong prospect,
Speaker 2: kind of in the Jade and Daniels class. You know,
Speaker 2: electric moving, nice arm, very accurate. You know, he's a winner.
Speaker 2: He was a winner first year in college. He's a
Speaker 2: winner at Colorado. I mean, they're a really good football
Speaker 2: team now that can win the Big Twelve. So you know,
Speaker 2: Dallas there is This is what happens for the Giants
Speaker 2: who reached the do Daniel Jones, the Cowboys who have
Speaker 2: overpaid Dak had some injuries. I would strongly consider the
Speaker 2: one thing about this draft. It's week at quarterback, it's
Speaker 2: strong at wide receiver, and it's strong in the first
Speaker 2: round on edge rusher. I would consider moving Micah Parsons.
Speaker 2: You know, somebody's going to give you a first round
Speaker 2: pick and have to pay him. But you know, there's
Speaker 2: there's a lot of teams in this league that are close,
Speaker 2: but they could use an elite edge rusher and Mike
Speaker 2: go unhealthy is that and you could go draft another
Speaker 2: edge rusher and restart the clock on that position. And
Speaker 2: there's several. Abdul Carter the edge rusher from Penn State,
Speaker 2: it's a top ten pick again, Williams from Georgia, top
Speaker 2: ten twelve pick. But I think I think Dallas, you know,
Speaker 2: they have to have like a come to Jesus moment.
Speaker 2: They're just not very good. I mean, you watch tonight.
Speaker 2: You know Ceedee Lamb's an explosive player, but they know
Speaker 2: their past protection is just okay. They have the weakest
Speaker 2: running back room in the league. They have nothing after
Speaker 2: Ceedee Lamb. Of note, they need a lot of help.
Speaker 2: Their corners are okay, not special in my opinion. So
Speaker 2: I think that's that's where Dallas is. It's not a
Speaker 2: year in the NFL draft to want a quarterback. There's one,
Speaker 2: and I think you know, listen, Vegas and the New
Speaker 2: York Giants both need one. I think Sam Darnold will
Speaker 2: probably have a market, a decent market, because I think
Speaker 2: Minnesota is gonna I think they've got a chance to
Speaker 2: sneak into the playoffs. They're just good enough. But Dallas
Speaker 2: has a long way to go. Houston's gonna be fine.
Speaker 2: They're gonna be fine. They're gonna get better next year.
Speaker 2: I like their coach, their quarterback, their front office, They
Speaker 2: got some players. Their old line is just kind of
Speaker 2: a mess. A lot of panelies don't pass protect particularly well.
Speaker 2: You saw it tonight. They don't pick up blitzes. They
Speaker 2: just they just it's a bad unit. But but Dallas
Speaker 2: has to really think long and hard. The downside a
Speaker 2: mediocre draft like this year is the Cowboys would love
Speaker 2: to trade down. This is why I believe they have
Speaker 2: to have a top five pick, because the people the
Speaker 2: only players that people will trade up for is a
Speaker 2: Shadoor Sanders or maybe a cam Ward. There's there's like
Speaker 2: one or two great tackles. There's four or five. I
Speaker 2: think Mason Graham, the defensive tackle for Michigan's really really special.
Speaker 2: He's been unblockable by a single offensive lineman in college football.
Speaker 2: You kind of have to double team him, so, you know,
Speaker 2: just it's interesting to see all these teams at the
Speaker 2: top of the draft. Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas. You know,
Speaker 2: you're kind of used to them, Jets, Carolina, Then all
Speaker 2: of a sudden you go, oh yeah, Dallas, Wow, Dallas.
Speaker 2: But you watch the night there's nothing there. So you're
Speaker 2: you're seeing something all through college and pro sports. And
Speaker 2: it was very noticeable this weekend, you know, the Trump
Speaker 2: dance by young NFL players, African American players, white players,
Speaker 2: veteran players, Brock Bauers, the young tight end for Las Vegas.
Speaker 2: But I was really you know, athletes have a sense
Speaker 2: of humor. You know, it's a sport. It's a business,
Speaker 2: but it's a sport, and you know, after you score,
Speaker 2: you celebrate.
Speaker 3: I don't care what players do.
Speaker 2: I really don't, but I did think it was interesting
Speaker 2: that in soccer, United States men's national team star Christian
Speaker 2: Polisic did the Trump dance. And the reason I think
Speaker 2: it's surprising is that soccer tends to have a very young,
Speaker 2: left leaning audience, and when he did it, I thought,
Speaker 2: oh boy, there's going to be a meltdown. And regardless
Speaker 2: of where I've always viewed myself really as a moderate independent,
Speaker 2: but you can drive yourself crazy all you want. But
Speaker 2: the reason the athletes are doing this is because it's
Speaker 2: really a quirky, weird, odd dance, and every time Trump
Speaker 2: did it, it just looks so outdated. And I think
Speaker 2: Trump sort of leans into it now and knows people
Speaker 2: get a kick out of it, and it's okay to
Speaker 2: take a deep breath. And regardless of what you think
Speaker 2: of a politician, it is a three second, four second dance.
Speaker 2: They're pro athletes. Take a deep breath, or you can
Speaker 2: go into therapy for the next four years. And because
Speaker 2: you're side lost and be miserable. You know, sometimes I
Speaker 2: think in politics the greatest advantage conservatives have is people
Speaker 2: watching the other side melt down and look crazy and
Speaker 2: out of their mind. It's just a dance, it's no
Speaker 2: big deal. It's three seconds. Athletes have a sense of humor.
Speaker 2: We're all going to be okay on that. But it
Speaker 2: was noticeable to me that when Poolisic did it, I thought, oh,
Speaker 2: that's that's surprising. You know, soccer players in the soccer
Speaker 2: community have always felt a little European, kind of left leaning,
Speaker 2: young stylish.
Speaker 4: That's what it's.
Speaker 2: Always felt like to me, you know, the hipsters.
Speaker 3: I love.
Speaker 2: I love soccer. You know, I've told the story before.
Speaker 2: My mom was British and when I was a kid,
Speaker 2: really really young, I was probably six years old, seven
Speaker 2: years old, my mom took me to England, and England
Speaker 2: was the Netherlands with Johann Croive a great soccer star,
Speaker 2: and England where the dominant kind of teams in the world,
Speaker 2: and England had won a World Cup back then, and
Speaker 2: my mom bought me a little soccer set and I
Speaker 2: can remember playing with it in the window ledge in England, Lancashire,
Speaker 2: in the middle of England, where my mom was from,
Speaker 2: and so I remember those I had these strong It's
Speaker 2: one of the first memories of my life is playing
Speaker 2: with this soccer game and Netherlands wore orange, that's their
Speaker 2: country's color, and it was on television. It must have
Speaker 2: been around, you know, the World Cup, because that's all
Speaker 2: my mom and her twin brother, my late mother and
Speaker 2: her twin brother, Peter, that's all they you know, that
Speaker 2: was like a big topic of conversation and they went
Speaker 2: and got me that soccer game. So I've always been
Speaker 2: and then I moved to the Pacific Northwest. You know,
Speaker 2: I was from there, the Seattle Sounders, the Portland Timbers,
Speaker 2: and then I went there in my career. So I've
Speaker 2: always liked soccer, especially the United States men's national team.
Speaker 2: But I didn't look at the reactions of their face
Speaker 2: when Polistic did that. But I thought, there's gonna be
Speaker 2: some melt founds over that. And again, take a deep
Speaker 2: breath to four second dance. People are just having fun.
Speaker 2: So there's been some concern consternation on where is the
Speaker 2: Shaq Barkley Ernie Kenny Johnson show going to go now
Speaker 2: that Warner Brothers and TNT has lost the NBA and
Speaker 2: this was going to be their last year with him.
Speaker 2: So over the course of I think it was late
Speaker 2: last week, it was announced in the negotiation between the
Speaker 2: NBA and TNT, Adam Silver didn't want TNT involved in it.
Speaker 2: Long story, mostly boring. The top executive for Warner Brothers
Speaker 2: just pissed off Adam Silver and he no longer wanted
Speaker 2: him associated with the league, and so basically they struck
Speaker 2: a deal on ESPN is going to get the show,
Speaker 2: The Barkley Shack Show. I actually think it is significant
Speaker 2: because in the regular season that show is often more
Speaker 2: entertaining than the games in a long NBA regular season,
Speaker 2: and I'm a huge fan of Mike Breen. I never
Speaker 2: understood breaking up Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson and Mike Breen.
Speaker 2: I thought at the time it was easily their strongest
Speaker 2: broadcast unit. I didn't get it. Probably political. Van Gundy
Speaker 2: had been at times critical of the NBA, so it
Speaker 2: felt like Adam Silver stepped in and blew that up.
Speaker 2: And it's happened before. I remember when David Stern was commissioner,
Speaker 2: I had heard complaints that he wasn't happy with the
Speaker 2: I forget the broadcaster one of the broadcasters on ABCESBN
Speaker 2: and David Stern had pressured ESPN to make changes. So
Speaker 2: but I do think ESPN's NBA coverage for the last
Speaker 2: I mean, what do they had the rights twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two years. I love Breen, but it's just been a
Speaker 2: revolving door of personalities and they've no really stepped up
Speaker 2: and spent big money and got landed a superstar. And
Speaker 2: I think this will really cement. I mean, let's be honest,
Speaker 2: for years and years, Monday Night Football was kind of
Speaker 2: swimming in mediocrity. It's nothing against the broadcasters, but it
Speaker 2: never felt as good as like Al Michaels or you know,
Speaker 2: the bigger broadcast teams. Jim Nantz and so Buck and
Speaker 2: Aikman have solidified Monday night Football. They make it feel
Speaker 2: big again. And for years, I just I felt like
Speaker 2: it just it didn't feel as big as the Fox
Speaker 2: Game of the Week or the Sunday Night Football Game
Speaker 2: of the Week, or the CBS Jim Nance Romo.
Speaker 3: Game of the Week.
Speaker 2: ESBN felt like Number four and buckan Aikman have elevated it,
Speaker 2: and I think ESPN's pre and postgame show has been
Speaker 2: really weak, and I mean I mean the halftime shows
Speaker 2: like two minutes and commercials.
Speaker 3: I mean they don't even care. They're just selling spots.
Speaker 2: So I think this will make it more formidable, like
Speaker 2: Buckan Akman do. It'll make it feel big. And I think,
Speaker 2: if you're Adam Silver, NBC is going to have NBA,
Speaker 2: ESPN's going to have NBA, and Amazon's going to have NBA,
Speaker 2: but the incumbent is ESPN, and I think it's a
Speaker 2: strong play. I think, you know, I love the business
Speaker 2: I'm in. I think Jimmy Bataro, who runs ESPN, has
Speaker 2: taken big swings. I think Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, Buckan, Aikman,
Speaker 2: Shaq Barkley, Jason Kelsey, Bill Belichick. Those are big swings.
Speaker 2: And I think is our business. As the market's gotten
Speaker 2: wider and wider and wider, it's harder to develop shows.
Speaker 2: It's easier to go get widely recognized personalities. To put
Speaker 2: a Nick Saban on a game day, and I think
Speaker 2: he's been the perfect tonic on that show between all
Speaker 2: their other cast just he just clicked with them. And
Speaker 2: so I and the reason ESPN has done some big
Speaker 2: game hunting. I mean they've really taken some big swings.
Speaker 2: Is because for years and years they were swimming in
Speaker 2: red with their streaming growth, you know, Disney Disney Plus,
Speaker 2: and it was losing you know, four five billion a year.
Speaker 2: Will they just turned to profit. This year they made
Speaker 2: a billion, and so this point forward, Disney's going to
Speaker 2: be making four eight, twelve twenty billion dollars a year
Speaker 2: in their streaming. So you know, underneath Disney is ESPN.
Speaker 2: And even though cable television is probably got six years left,
Speaker 2: seven years left from what I read, Disney's now humming.
Speaker 2: So they're taking big swings and they're going buying big
Speaker 2: name people as the market has become very very wide,
Speaker 2: and it's just it's when people there's so many platforms,
Speaker 2: there's so many options. I mean, people are sitting on
Speaker 2: TikTok all day. To get attention, you got to go
Speaker 2: take big swings. And you know, I think that's what
Speaker 2: Shack and Barkley and Kenny and Ernie are. I think
Speaker 2: that's arguably as good as any pre postgame halftime show.
Speaker 2: I think Fox's Football Show and that show are the
Speaker 2: two that really stand out to me. The NFL season's
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Speaker 2: There's the Alabama quarterback that won a Natty in twenty
Speaker 2: ten with a Crimson tide. He's the host of olwa's
Speaker 2: College Football Greg McElroy, who we bring on two or
Speaker 2: three times a year. The latest college football rankings have
Speaker 2: come out BYU is gone. I don't have a problem
Speaker 2: with it, I think, and I'm assuming most of you
Speaker 2: who listened to my show know what the college football
Speaker 2: rankings were. Oregon one, Ohio State two, Texas three, Penn
Speaker 2: State four, Not sure I buy Penn State, Indiana five
Speaker 2: Notre Dame six, Bama, who I think is better than
Speaker 2: advertised at seven, Miami eight. Don't know if I buy him,
Speaker 2: Ole Miss nine, Georgia ten, Tennessee, who I had winning
Speaker 2: the Natty eleven, and Boise State twelve. So here's let
Speaker 2: me just throw this out there. For years and years
Speaker 2: I heard Greg Big Ten fans always state, why don't
Speaker 2: we have to go south to play our bowl games?
Speaker 2: So what's interesting is Georgia would have to go to
Speaker 2: Penn State, it's pickham, Ole Miss would have to go
Speaker 2: to Indiana, and Alabama would have to go to Notre Dame.
Speaker 2: I do think that's an advantage for cold weather teams
Speaker 2: over warm weather teams.
Speaker 1: Do you absolutely that's a huge deal, especially looking at
Speaker 1: the I mean, what did Wisconsin just do this past week?
Speaker 1: I mean, and I know that right now it's not
Speaker 1: frigid ten temperatures in Madison, but they just got rid
Speaker 1: of their air raid style offensive coordinator because it's hard
Speaker 1: to throw and to be a pass happy offense in
Speaker 1: November in the Big Ten, well raise it by at
Speaker 1: least I don't know, three or four times the intensity
Speaker 1: in the playoff setting in December. I mean, look, I've
Speaker 1: lived in Cincinnati in New Jersey in my time in
Speaker 1: the NFL. The day I left Cincinnati it was minus
Speaker 1: thirty two degrees wind chill, and I thought to myself,
Speaker 1: I'm never coming back. If I have to retire, I will.
Speaker 1: I cannot play in this. We don't even have an
Speaker 1: indoor facility at the Bengals. I cannot do it anymore. Ye, So,
Speaker 1: long story short, I think you go to Columbus, you
Speaker 1: go to Penn State. Depending on the day, it could
Speaker 1: be a three to five point advantage in favor of
Speaker 1: the home team.
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, I agree with that.
Speaker 2: So Greg McElroy, as many of you know as a friend,
Speaker 2: he and Joel platter people I really like to talk
Speaker 2: college football with. They're so prepared, and they both played
Speaker 2: the quarterback position. Alabama's fascinating. First of all. Jalen Milroll,
Speaker 2: I don't know, and I do this for a living.
Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of him as a
Speaker 2: pro prospect.
Speaker 3: I really like.
Speaker 2: Him as a college quarterback. I think he throws a
Speaker 2: beautiful deep ball. He's got really like a Russell Wilson
Speaker 2: deep ball touch. It's a beautiful ball, incredibly catchable, and
Speaker 2: I think kayland Boor. I think we forget that Kaylen
Speaker 2: de Boor is a great coach and took over a
Speaker 2: great program. But you're instituting your own culture. And I
Speaker 2: think Nick was more of a little bit more of
Speaker 2: a screamer.
Speaker 3: A volume coach like Loud.
Speaker 2: That's not Kayln. He's more of a teacher and a mentor.
Speaker 2: So there's an adjustment for the players in Alabama.
Speaker 3: It's a new way. So they've had a couple of.
Speaker 2: Really bad halves, really bad halves, and I'm like, okay,
Speaker 2: but I don't care if you're taking if I'm taking
Speaker 2: over Nike, it's a great company. I'm trying to change
Speaker 2: the culture and institute my worldview. So I think Alabama
Speaker 2: now is actually underrated. I think it's gonna I think
Speaker 2: by the end of this season, you're going to look
Speaker 2: at them and go, God, they're really good. They have
Speaker 2: an NFL first second round quarterback, they have an excellent coach.
Speaker 2: But so I'm defending Alabama. My take is they get
Speaker 2: cherry picked a little more than most teams because they
Speaker 2: lose Nick and they're going to lose some guys in
Speaker 2: the portal, and people cherry pick them. It's very hard
Speaker 2: to follow Nick Caleb or is Kaylen's learning as he goes.
Speaker 2: Alabama's not Washington, Okay, al The culture's different, the demands
Speaker 2: are different, the intensity, the media.
Speaker 3: It's a relentless job. Washington's not.
Speaker 2: They got the Seahawks right down the road. If you lose,
Speaker 2: people forget very quickly. I think he's done a great job.
Speaker 2: I think Alabama now is underrated. You know the program
Speaker 2: better than anybody. Am I overstating what they can do?
Speaker 2: I think they can win a Natty. In fact, I
Speaker 2: would take them over I would over Georgia. But I
Speaker 2: don't think that's I don't think that's the view of
Speaker 2: most experts.
Speaker 1: I think that they've been a bit of a punching
Speaker 1: bag this year, understandably because we chase false gods in sports,
Speaker 1: you know, like, do you realize that I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean you cover the NBA. Did Michael Jordan ever
Speaker 1: miss a game winning shot? Absolutely not? Because I check
Speaker 1: YouTube highlights and I don't see a lot of misses
Speaker 1: on there. Like we chase false gods, and I feel like,
Speaker 1: even though we're just one year removed, people will look
Speaker 1: at Nick Saban's tenure and they're going to sit there
Speaker 1: and think, oh well, he never played close against teams
Speaker 1: after a law after a big win, Oh well, he
Speaker 1: never had a two point win against South Carolina, who
Speaker 1: at the time was like a five hundred football team.
Speaker 4: Oh well, well.
Speaker 1: He never did this, and the realities is not true.
Speaker 1: Nick Saban after a win or after a loss, excuse me,
Speaker 1: was like eight and fourteen against the spread in the
Speaker 1: last five years.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: It's like it's like nobody are in the last ten
Speaker 1: years or something. It was like some absurd number. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's it's ridiculous. It's not accurate. The people don't want
Speaker 1: to remember that because they just remember the dominance of
Speaker 1: the greatness for so long. And that's not disparging Nick
Speaker 1: at all. I think he's the greatest coach in the
Speaker 1: history of college football. It's just people don't realize that
Speaker 1: he also had teams that had flaws and that had
Speaker 1: growing experiences, and I think this team has had that.
Speaker 1: And the unfortunate thing about this team is his team
Speaker 1: is going to go, or at least it has up
Speaker 1: to this point. How their quarterback goes to be. This
Speaker 1: quarterback dependent is a challenge. Your best offensive weapon outside
Speaker 1: of Jalen milro is a true freshman who is an
Speaker 1: undersized wide receiver that has freak show qualities, but he's
Speaker 1: not you know, he's not Megatron. There's going to be
Speaker 1: some defensive backs that he has a tough matchup again,
Speaker 1: and there's going to be some that he torches. But
Speaker 1: he's young. Your running game is really good, and your
Speaker 1: offensive line is developing into a star. That is what
Speaker 1: I think is most encouraging about where Alabama's going on
Speaker 1: their trajectory. And they're very young on defense with a
Speaker 1: new system, and they've played a little better and better
Speaker 1: down the stretch too. So I think you're buying low
Speaker 1: on Alabama if you buy them now. Can they win
Speaker 1: the Natty? I think it's all matchup driven. That's what
Speaker 1: I think is cool about where we're going is it's
Speaker 1: very matchup driven. But I do think they can do
Speaker 1: it if the things bounce their way in they play
Speaker 1: their a game down the stretch.
Speaker 2: So I made the argument the other day, I don't
Speaker 2: I thought the win over Penn State. Penn State had
Speaker 2: opportunities to win that game, and I'm not saying Penn
Speaker 2: State's not worthy of the playoff, but if Indiana beat
Speaker 2: Ohio State and Oregon beat Ohio State, in my opinion,
Speaker 2: the two best teams they've played, because if Indiana beats
Speaker 2: Ohio State, they're for real now they're a thirteen point under.
Speaker 3: Doinars probably won't.
Speaker 2: But I made the argument is if Ohio State lost
Speaker 2: to Oregon in Indiana, man, I that doesn't I mean
Speaker 2: that you're certainly not getting a home game from me
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. Now what do you make of Ohio State?
Speaker 2: I call them the whack a mole team. Every time
Speaker 2: I'm watch, something else pops up that worries me. Yeah,
Speaker 2: first it was their defense Oregon. Then it was their
Speaker 2: offense Penn State, or it was their offense against Nebraska,
Speaker 2: and then it was their quarterback play Will Howard against
Speaker 2: Penn State, and I'm like, something's off.
Speaker 3: There's just something.
Speaker 2: And by the way, I felt this for the last
Speaker 2: two to three years against Michigan, where Michigan had an
Speaker 2: absolute identity Nick Saban's team's identity. What is Ohio State
Speaker 2: in your eyes?
Speaker 3: Beyond talented?
Speaker 1: I think they're I ain't. They're a team that wants
Speaker 1: to be rugged, but they still have a bun, you
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Like they want to be rugged,
Speaker 1: but they still have a lot of sport. It's like,
Speaker 1: you know, they they have a dirt road that you
Speaker 1: have to run in the Big ten to win a championship,
Speaker 1: and they can't decide if they want to take their
Speaker 1: you know, Ford F one fifty or their GMC Sierra
Speaker 1: or if they just want to say forget it, well,
Speaker 1: who cares if we if we blow an axle, like,
Speaker 1: let's drive the Ferrari and see what happens. I think
Speaker 1: that there is a bit of an identity. Do they
Speaker 1: want to be a running team? They want to utilize
Speaker 1: quarterback run? Do they want to do they want to
Speaker 1: be a drop back passing team. Are they a team
Speaker 1: that wants to work off play action? Like I think
Speaker 1: they can do all those things. I think they do
Speaker 1: everything well, but they don't do anything elite, and that
Speaker 1: to me is a little bit jaw dropping given their personnel.
Speaker 1: Like I think they have a good defensive line, I
Speaker 1: don't think they have an elite defensive line. Like I
Speaker 1: think they have good run stopping defensive ends, but I
Speaker 1: don't think they have defensive ends that scare me to
Speaker 1: death and I can put my tackles on one on
Speaker 1: one against them in an obvious passing situation. I think
Speaker 1: they have really athletic linebackers, and I think those guys
Speaker 1: are actually an upgrade from what they've had in the past.
Speaker 1: But I also think they can sometimes over pursue and
Speaker 1: Oregon hit them with some misdirections to my violation stuff.
Speaker 1: I hate they have really good corners, but I also
Speaker 1: don't know if those corners have seen elite elite level
Speaker 1: wide receivers outside of that game against Oregon. And guess what,
Speaker 1: every team they play in the playoff will likely have
Speaker 1: elite level wide receivers. So it's a roundabout way of
Speaker 1: saying I think Ohio State has a crazy high ceiling
Speaker 1: and if they ever put it all together, it'd be
Speaker 1: a special thing for all of us to watch. But
Speaker 1: it's Week eleven. Yeah, what are we waiting for? And
Speaker 1: I hope badly it happens this week and not because
Speaker 1: of Indiana or anything. I just want to see it.
Speaker 1: You don't accumulate that many pros on one roster and
Speaker 1: not just want something more. It feels a little bit
Speaker 1: like the twenty fifteen team, you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: Like when they were in twenty fifteen, they had the
Speaker 1: best roster, but they didn't have the best team now,
Speaker 1: and I don't know why that was.
Speaker 2: I made this argument. I think to Urban Meyer a
Speaker 2: year ago, I said, they're receiving recruiting has been so good.
Speaker 2: Brian Hartline, I mean, it's just all five star guys
Speaker 2: that even at practice, it's art, it's beautiful, and it's
Speaker 2: hard not to be seduced as a head coach when
Speaker 2: you're looking at these incredible first round wide receivers and
Speaker 2: you have good backs, not pedestrian, they're good backs. You
Speaker 2: have world class receivers. And I think at practice, I
Speaker 2: think in game in film rooms, it's literally like putting
Speaker 2: ice cream in front of an eight year old. It's like,
Speaker 2: I'm going to eat it, even if I know it's
Speaker 2: not good for me. And I think, what's happened. They're receiving.
Speaker 2: Recruiting is so good that it's seductive, and they sometimes
Speaker 2: whenever they have a bad drive, we're throwing the ball,
Speaker 2: We're going to the perimeter, and it's like this happens now,
Speaker 2: Saban his recruiting on the perimeter was great as well,
Speaker 2: But the culture of Alabama was really about physicality and
Speaker 2: when I thought Michigan separated from Ohio State. It wasn't
Speaker 2: better players until the very last team. It was a
Speaker 2: better identity and understanding of what they were. Hell, they
Speaker 2: beat Penn State. They didn't throw a pass in the
Speaker 2: second half on the road. So I think this may
Speaker 2: not make sense, but you know a little. You know
Speaker 2: some of this in the NFL. If your best athletes
Speaker 2: are on the perimeter, it's seductive. You're going to be
Speaker 2: a more finesse football team. Cincinnati, between losing Joe Mixon,
Speaker 2: Higgins and Chase, of course you're gonna throw the ball.
Speaker 2: It's just it's too appealing not to. And I feel
Speaker 2: like with Ohio State, I don't know if they need
Speaker 2: an eight minute drive to kill the clock. Is it
Speaker 2: in them running the ball and eating up clock?
Speaker 3: Is it in them? I don't know if it is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. And they're also sometimes when
Speaker 1: I when I watch Ohio State, and I felt like
Speaker 1: this a little bit like when I watched the Lincoln
Speaker 1: Riley led Oklahoma teams. And this is not comparing Ryan
Speaker 1: Day to Lincoln Riley. This is not. I just feel
Speaker 1: like they look at a six yard gain like it's
Speaker 1: a failure, you know what I mean. Like sometimes when
Speaker 1: I watch them, it's like, oh, handoff to Judkins up
Speaker 1: the middle, gain of five at second and five, it's
Speaker 1: like guys are walking back to the you know, their
Speaker 1: heads are hung. It's like that was a great play.
Speaker 1: I mean, I just think there is such a pressure
Speaker 1: to not just perform at a high level, but to
Speaker 1: have a highly intoxicating offense that goes up and down
Speaker 1: the field. But also when you have an offense that
Speaker 1: can score fifty, you're hanging your defense out to dry.
Speaker 1: So then if you want to lean into your offense,
Speaker 1: now everyone's gonna call you soft because that's that's what
Speaker 1: people have been saying for the last two years. That's
Speaker 1: why you lost to Michigan because you're quote soft. That's
Speaker 1: not true. We aren't soft. It just Michigan was the
Speaker 1: better team on that day.
Speaker 2: And Michigan last year had better personnel. They were stacked.
Speaker 1: It wasn't close. They were significantly more talented. And look
Speaker 1: at the.
Speaker 2: Draft they that, yeah, there's still more Michigan guys exactly.
Speaker 1: So I just think that I think that I think
Speaker 1: Ohio State needs to just stay the course.
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 1: They they're really talented. Don't try to be Michigan that
Speaker 1: has a good quarter. Don't try to be Michigan. Don't
Speaker 1: try to be pen State. Just don't don't try to
Speaker 1: be twenty fifteen Ohio State. Just be you, and you,
Speaker 1: the you that you are right now is plenty good
Speaker 1: enough to go win a national championship. But I think
Speaker 1: it's going to require improved offensive line play, which we've
Speaker 1: seen it's it's been better the last few weeks. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to require slightly more aggressive defensive philosophy
Speaker 1: with pressures and being able to ramp things up a
Speaker 1: little bit. And I think it's going to require them
Speaker 1: being a little bit more willing to roll the dice
Speaker 1: on the perimeter some of the coverages.
Speaker 3: I think.
Speaker 1: Don't think you can play quarters all the time beat
Speaker 1: beat high level teams. I don't think you can prey
Speaker 1: press man all the time beat high level teams. I
Speaker 1: just think it's gonna be interesting to watch them. I
Speaker 1: think there's plenty of talent in there. I just think
Speaker 1: you're right. I think it comes down to identity and
Speaker 1: how they want to play into it.
Speaker 2: Alright. Sharper Square, co host of The Favorites, Chad Millman.
Speaker 2: All odds provided by DraftKings. So I had a rant
Speaker 2: today on my very popular syndicated radio show Milman.
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I'm familiar, I've I've heard it's big.
Speaker 3: People are talking.
Speaker 2: So my take is what you don't want to become
Speaker 2: is the NBA a very strong top, a soft middle,
Speaker 2: and ten teams to eleven teams at the bottom that
Speaker 2: are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the Eastern Conference now
Speaker 2: and I said, as the NFL has become more quarterback
Speaker 2: centric based on a CTE lawsuit and changes of rules
Speaker 2: pivoting to the offense, that we are getting to be
Speaker 2: a little nbaish in the NFL. A very strong top
Speaker 2: of five or six teams, a pretty soft middle of
Speaker 2: like the Seahawks Rams, and nine teams with two or
Speaker 2: three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking. And so
Speaker 2: I have never been prone to big favorites. But Detroit
Speaker 2: last week at minus fourteen felt like one of the
Speaker 2: smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and a half.
Speaker 2: So I locked it in at ten this week on
Speaker 2: the Herd. But I think one teams soft tanking and
Speaker 2: one team is fighting for a playoff spot. One team
Speaker 2: is now on a backup and not a great backup.
Speaker 2: The other team has one of the better rookie quarterbacks
Speaker 2: in a long time. That team's at home playing for something.
Speaker 2: I know it's not sharp sharper square, but I like
Speaker 2: the commanders here.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it,
Speaker 4: it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah,
Speaker 4: you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you.
Speaker 4: This is the week where they've decided they love massive
Speaker 4: divisional favorites. I'm here to tell you they don't. The
Speaker 4: Wise Guys like the Cowboys. And part of this is, yes,
Speaker 4: the number is so big, but there's also some regression
Speaker 4: from Jaden Daniels. Right, he was not very good against
Speaker 4: the Eagles last week on Thursday Night. In fact, like
Speaker 4: since that opening four game stretch where he was completing
Speaker 4: eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete
Speaker 4: more than seventy percent of his passes in a game,
Speaker 4: And so you have to ask yourself, has he started
Speaker 4: to come back down to earth. Has teams started to
Speaker 4: figure him out? That's really the key to this game.
Speaker 4: And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did
Speaker 4: last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the
Speaker 4: first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of
Speaker 4: being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in
Speaker 4: the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups
Speaker 4: in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters
Speaker 4: that we see in the league. But the wise guys
Speaker 4: are going to be on the Cowboys here because this
Speaker 4: number in a division game is just too big for
Speaker 4: a rookie quarterback who's steadily declined as the season has
Speaker 4: gone on. And by the way, the Rookie of the
Speaker 4: Year ares odds are a great way to look at that, right,
Speaker 4: how much is bo Nicks crept up in behind Jayden
Speaker 4: Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation? So the
Speaker 4: market is starting to recognize some of that.
Speaker 2: So I like the Bears plus three and a half
Speaker 2: hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that
Speaker 2: they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that
Speaker 2: they schemed up layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they
Speaker 2: just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the
Speaker 2: low ratings. You know, I love Sam Donald, but boy,
Speaker 2: they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God,
Speaker 2: I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have
Speaker 2: been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they
Speaker 2: have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and
Speaker 2: I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC
Speaker 2: change mattered Sharper square.
Speaker 4: So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five.
Speaker 4: So the wise guys bet at five, they better at
Speaker 4: four and a half, they better at four. They're still
Speaker 4: betting it a little bit at three at three and
Speaker 4: a half. If it gets any further than this, if
Speaker 4: I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you
Speaker 4: are locking in the Bears at three and a half,
Speaker 4: you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three.
Speaker 4: You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's been.
Speaker 4: In that game against Tennessee last week. They covered the spread,
Speaker 4: but not be because of anything Sam Darnold did. He
Speaker 4: had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty percent
Speaker 4: of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right,
Speaker 4: So he is not having a very good sort of
Speaker 4: second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The
Speaker 4: problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I challenge.
Speaker 4: The wise guy perception on this is they like the
Speaker 4: Bears largely because they think that Caleb did what you
Speaker 4: just said. He looked better. He was getting rid of
Speaker 4: the ball in less than two and a half seconds.
Speaker 4: It's the first time he's been doing that, right, Can
Speaker 4: they really block against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is
Speaker 4: so much more complex than the Packers Brian Flores destroys
Speaker 4: rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams this season, when he is
Speaker 4: facing a team that has a sack percentage which is
Speaker 4: basically the number of defensive players that end in a sack.
Speaker 4: When he was facing a team that is a sack
Speaker 4: percent of more than two point two percent, he's one
Speaker 4: and six. So you're looking at a guy who is
Speaker 4: facing a team that is a sack percentage of five
Speaker 4: and a half percent, And a lot of times it's
Speaker 4: not even because they're bringing pressure, they're dropping a lot
Speaker 4: of guys into covers. They just confuse the heck out
Speaker 4: of offensive lines and young quarterbacks. So to me, that's
Speaker 4: really the matchup you have to be careful of. It's
Speaker 4: why I'm staying away from this game. I just don't
Speaker 4: think there's any value in this number too much bad
Speaker 4: quarterback play, too much good defensive play.
Speaker 2: Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks. I've said this
Speaker 2: for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is.
Speaker 2: I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it.
Speaker 2: Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll
Speaker 2: move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future.
Speaker 2: He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great.
Speaker 2: Co Sel said it on my show this week. They
Speaker 2: don't outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They
Speaker 2: are really smartly schemed, and I think this is an
Speaker 2: offense that is young in spots that is growing and confidence.
Speaker 2: I like teams that have an identity. As the season
Speaker 2: goes on. It takes teams time, even the Patriots and
Speaker 2: Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's
Speaker 2: time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams
Speaker 2: still don't have it. Seattle does an Arizona does Sharper square.
Speaker 4: So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I
Speaker 4: agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly
Speaker 4: who they are right they are even on defense. They
Speaker 4: are still a physical football team. James Connor is a
Speaker 4: really violent runner, and they know if they are able
Speaker 4: to get him the ball and be effective in the
Speaker 4: running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in
Speaker 4: the passing game. And they're just going to be the
Speaker 4: better team because of those two players, especially against a
Speaker 4: team like the Seahawks, which just last week before the
Speaker 4: gaming it's the Niners. They release their leading tackler, like
Speaker 4: that tells you how much they don't know who they are.
Speaker 4: It is like they're making pretty big personnel moves coming
Speaker 4: out of a buy in advance of a huge division game.
Speaker 4: And I would not take anything from the Seahawks win
Speaker 4: against the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for
Speaker 4: the Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that
Speaker 4: impacted the game tremendously. So whilse guys are with you,
Speaker 4: the Cardinals in Decide, they're you know, pun intended. They're
Speaker 4: putting the cards on the table here right because they
Speaker 4: can take significant control of that division coming off a
Speaker 4: by with a lot of hype on this team right now,
Speaker 4: so it's a big step up game for them.
Speaker 2: I like Green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now,
Speaker 2: if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's
Speaker 2: just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay.
Speaker 2: Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynch
Speaker 2: pin of the defense, and when he's out and he's
Speaker 2: banged up consistently, it's not very good. And I say
Speaker 2: this about Sam Forrancisco, you are what your record is.
Speaker 2: They're a five and five football team, and they're not
Speaker 2: very good on special teams. They don't get the consistent
Speaker 2: pass rush. Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue.
Speaker 2: They miss a deep threat now. Christian McCaffrey is still
Speaker 2: not at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay
Speaker 2: the best kind of team to bet. They won and
Speaker 2: played poorly. You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home
Speaker 2: minus one and a half.
Speaker 4: Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys are all over
Speaker 4: the Niners here. The number was a two and a half.
Speaker 4: They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news
Speaker 4: because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder
Speaker 4: and was going to be day to day. He practiced
Speaker 4: yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick
Speaker 4: Bosa here. Was about brock Purty and the wise guys.
Speaker 4: Look at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no
Speaker 4: bigger difference this week in sort of our luck rankings
Speaker 4: than the Packers, who are at the top of the
Speaker 4: luck rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in
Speaker 4: games They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot
Speaker 4: of blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play
Speaker 4: last week. The Niners have had terrible luck, terrible turnovers
Speaker 4: at the wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time
Speaker 4: in multiple games. Right, So you're looking at two teams
Speaker 4: that are really diametrically opposite in terms of how things
Speaker 4: have played out for them, and you ask a lot
Speaker 4: of wise guys and they'll say they have this game
Speaker 4: even on the road at Green Bay Power Raider to pick.
Speaker 4: So you're getting a point and a half of value
Speaker 4: right now on the Niners. So that's why the wise
Speaker 4: guys like them.
Speaker 2: Rams didn't look great and I have no home field advantage.
Speaker 2: I like Philly minus two and a half. It'll be
Speaker 2: a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense
Speaker 2: is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of
Speaker 2: pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well.
Speaker 2: I think rosters it's a miss match. It'll be actually
Speaker 2: a semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I
Speaker 2: don't have to love Nick Sirianni. They are hummon. Saquon
Speaker 2: Barkley is playing the best football he's ever played in
Speaker 2: his life. They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half.
Speaker 2: Kind of surprised at the line. I thought it would
Speaker 2: be bigger Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's
Speaker 4: no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites
Speaker 4: today that there's no real wise guy side. They've come
Speaker 4: in on the Rams when it's at three. They've come
Speaker 4: in on the Eagles when it's at two and a half,
Speaker 4: and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you.
Speaker 4: I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams
Speaker 4: the past two weeks. I felt like they were in
Speaker 4: good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots
Speaker 4: against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not
Speaker 4: playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford very well,
Speaker 4: and the key to this team and you and I
Speaker 4: have talked about this. Sean McVay. For all of his
Speaker 4: motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes to run the
Speaker 4: ball and that's the strength of this team. I don't
Speaker 4: see the Rams being able to run the ball against
Speaker 4: the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by the way,
Speaker 4: Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five, the Eagles
Speaker 4: have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which is basically
Speaker 4: a fancy way of saying how many points they're expected
Speaker 4: to give up on defense on a particular play, to first,
Speaker 4: like this defense has finally figured out what he was
Speaker 4: trying to teach them and they're locked in In the
Speaker 4: back of the secondary. Cooper Deujen is one of the
Speaker 4: top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. That
Speaker 4: should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper,
Speaker 4: Cupp and pukuin Nukua. So I'm with you. I like
Speaker 4: the Eagles here. I think it's a good spot for them.
Speaker 2: Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, Go back on
Speaker 2: the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago,
Speaker 2: now that they're healthy, are a really good football team.
Speaker 2: Special teams, offense, They're resourceful on offense, they are physical
Speaker 2: on defense. They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does
Speaker 2: not have like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd,
Speaker 2: so it will be mostly a Chargers fan base at
Speaker 2: home again. Chargers come off a win, feeling good about
Speaker 2: themselves and comfortable. The Ravens come off a physical, emotional
Speaker 2: rivalry game. I like the Chargers plus two and a half.
Speaker 2: Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Two and a half is not where the wise guys
Speaker 4: like it. They loved it at three. I think if
Speaker 4: you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of
Speaker 4: tempting fate, right. You would expect this to be a
Speaker 4: field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked
Speaker 4: about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the
Speaker 4: Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but
Speaker 4: who have they really played. We saw a little bit
Speaker 4: of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals
Speaker 4: did such a good job coming back and probably should
Speaker 4: have won that game if not for some really some
Speaker 4: bad miss kicks and couple of bad flags and the
Speaker 4: Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the Chargers
Speaker 4: do to the Ravens what other teams have done all year,
Speaker 4: which has beat them in the second half through the air.
Speaker 4: They have the talent, I think where everyone is seeing
Speaker 4: what's going on with Lad McConkie and are excited about
Speaker 4: him as a connection with Justin Herbert. But the Chargers
Speaker 4: have been terrible in the second half this year, so
Speaker 4: you're going to have to expect them to do something
Speaker 4: they haven't done this year in the second half, which
Speaker 4: is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to
Speaker 4: do it and basically win the game because you're betting
Speaker 4: less than the field goal. So at two and a half,
Speaker 4: it's just not very sure.
Speaker 2: I like the Patriots plus seven and a half a
Speaker 2: Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think Drake may is finding himself.
Speaker 2: Miami is one of those teams where you're never quite
Speaker 2: sure exactly what you get. They blow more opportunities than
Speaker 2: they should. I think Miami wins this game. But this
Speaker 2: just feels like an obvious sharp side New England playing hard,
Speaker 2: people playing for stuff here, young team, young coach, young quarterback.
Speaker 2: They're not playing like they want the number one pick,
Speaker 2: nor do they need it, because they have their quarterback
Speaker 2: they're not soft tanking for Shadoor Sanders. You know, they
Speaker 2: have to upgrade positions defensive end and wide receiver, and
Speaker 2: it's a defensive end wide receiver draft. I like the
Speaker 2: Patriots to play hard, keep it close, Sharper square.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven
Speaker 4: and a half the wise guys like the Patriots. There's
Speaker 4: no doubt about it. And if you've watched the Dolphins
Speaker 4: the past two weeks, they were fine against the Rams.
Speaker 4: Their defensive line played great, they got to Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 4: But the Rams gave that game away five field goals.
Speaker 4: They couldn't score touchdowns. They were missing snaps, they were throwing,
Speaker 4: you know, tipped interceptions. They did not play well. And
Speaker 4: if you look at the game against the Raiders last week,
Speaker 4: the Dolphins were only up by five points with three
Speaker 4: and a half minutes left. There was a miracle defensive
Speaker 4: pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the Dolphins the
Speaker 4: ball and converted a third down for them instead of
Speaker 4: getting the Raiders the ball back. And that was sort
Speaker 4: of the end of the game. And they end up
Speaker 4: scoring thirty five points or whatever it is. But they
Speaker 4: were up by five points. The Raiders are going to
Speaker 4: cover that game, and if they'd gotten the ball back,
Speaker 4: potentially won that game. So I just haven't been impressed
Speaker 4: with the Dolphins, whereas I have been really impressed with
Speaker 4: Drake may He's just a gamer. And I think the
Speaker 4: biggest problem for this Patriots team is Gerald Mayo is
Speaker 4: such a conservative play caller. It doesn't seem to really
Speaker 4: know how to run the math yet when you're going
Speaker 4: for two, should you go for one? When do you
Speaker 4: want to go forward? And fourth down? He's coaching like
Speaker 4: a defensive coordinator in key sort of pivot spot for
Speaker 4: the game, and that's where the biggest challenge comes in
Speaker 4: for the Patriots to cover. But the wise guys, you're
Speaker 4: with you. They like the seven and a half.
Speaker 2: I like the Colts at home getting seven and a
Speaker 2: half Lions. Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving and
Speaker 2: they're you know, they're playing perfect football. The Colts, I
Speaker 2: thought Anthony Richardson looked as good as he has ever looked.
Speaker 2: I think they've kind of figured out what he is.
Speaker 2: Some of that is the Jets aren't very good. But
Speaker 2: I've been saying this for a month. I like the
Speaker 2: Colts personnel. I really do. I have both of their lines,
Speaker 2: especially their O line. They've got playmakers on the outside.
Speaker 2: I could see the Lions looking ahead to Thanksgiving. They're
Speaker 2: blowing people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus
Speaker 2: seven and a half at home.
Speaker 4: Sharper square couldn't be Sharper's sharpest play of the week.
Speaker 4: Like the Colts are one of those teams where a
Speaker 4: lot of wise guys when they look at this. Certainly,
Speaker 4: how I think about it when I'm deciding if I
Speaker 4: want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do
Speaker 4: I believe this is sort of the right side from
Speaker 4: a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against
Speaker 4: going to have an overinflated number because they're public because
Speaker 4: of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes,
Speaker 4: nobody is winning it a better clip than the Lions.
Speaker 4: They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4: That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number
Speaker 4: one great. I like the Cults here. Number two. Do
Speaker 4: I believe there's a part of the game where they
Speaker 4: can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line, best
Speaker 4: run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been
Speaker 4: playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I think
Speaker 4: he played great last week. I think with his ability
Speaker 4: to run against a defensive front that cannot get pressure
Speaker 4: since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will show
Speaker 4: you they are not a team that's getting a lot
Speaker 4: of pressure. So that's number two. I'd like that number three.
Speaker 4: There are a ton of trends that back this up,
Speaker 4: and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling. But in this case,
Speaker 4: like you got teams who are road favorites the game
Speaker 4: after being a double digit favorite in any location, they've
Speaker 4: had significant against the spread struggles the past decade forty
Speaker 4: three percent against the spread, Teams that are averaging thirty
Speaker 4: three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage, those
Speaker 4: teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread,
Speaker 4: and if they are coming off a double digit win,
Speaker 4: twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of
Speaker 4: matchup reasons, there's a lot of inflation reasons, and there's
Speaker 4: trend reasons. So checks out the boxes.
Speaker 2: Okay, a game, I want you to talk me into
Speaker 2: Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a
Speaker 2: divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young
Speaker 2: teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's
Speaker 2: a really interesting team right now, so we know their
Speaker 2: defense has been exceptional. Bon Nix is making leaps like big,
Speaker 2: no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton text me this week
Speaker 2: and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm.
Speaker 3: Is way better than anybody understands.
Speaker 2: Greg co cell echoed that this week, he's like he's
Speaker 2: making NFL elite throws down the middle of the field, hard,
Speaker 2: deep throws. Arm is not an issue. Talk me into it.
Speaker 2: I think the Broncos are the side for me.
Speaker 3: Sharper Square.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to
Speaker 4: this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed
Speaker 4: with the Broncos and feel like they've been emboldened by
Speaker 4: that Chiefs loss. And we saw it last week, right
Speaker 4: like the Wise guys they were coming all over in
Speaker 4: on the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in
Speaker 4: that game and that and it matched right like it
Speaker 4: was a Falcons team that was coming in and they
Speaker 4: were supposed to be a good team and the Broncos
Speaker 4: blew them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the
Speaker 4: same way this week I bet they're about the Raiders.
Speaker 4: I think the numbers gotten too high. It's at six,
Speaker 4: and that's because the wise guys have been betting it up.
Speaker 4: There's no matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like they're
Speaker 4: terrible team. They seem to keep themselves in every game
Speaker 4: until Gardner Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four
Speaker 4: lost fumbles this year, which is I think second in
Speaker 4: the NFL. He's got I think nine interceptions, which is
Speaker 4: third in the NFL, thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the
Speaker 4: script for this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve
Speaker 4: points double digit something, has a chance to put his
Speaker 4: team and get him through the back door, and he
Speaker 4: does something that costs his team the game, and you know,
Speaker 4: he loses the ball, he fumbles whatever. So you're probably
Speaker 4: on the right side, but I think you've lost the
Speaker 4: value in the number.
Speaker 2: Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I
Speaker 2: like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina,
Speaker 2: but all stay away. But I think generally, you know,
Speaker 2: Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though
Speaker 2: he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team,
Speaker 2: and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him,
Speaker 2: but give me something else.
Speaker 4: Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina, I hate to say, like.
Speaker 4: The Wise guys like Carolina here. They like what they've
Speaker 4: seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks that
Speaker 4: he played. They like the idea that this is also
Speaker 4: a really good run blocking unit and while the Chiefs
Speaker 4: run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still an
Speaker 4: opportunity here for the Chiefs and if they aren't running
Speaker 4: it very well. They have liked what they've seen. The
Speaker 4: Wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce Young
Speaker 4: and his ability to find the right receivers, especially against
Speaker 4: the chief secondary that isn't very good. You got to
Speaker 4: go on the road win is a double digit favorite.
Speaker 4: It's just a bad spot and historically now this year,
Speaker 4: double digit favorites are rushing right, it's been.
Speaker 2: That's my take at the top of this podcast was, yeah,
Speaker 2: the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference
Speaker 2: between Denver and Orlando is significant.
Speaker 4: Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats here.
Speaker 4: Then if you're gonna be talking about this because it
Speaker 4: helps illuminate it a little bit. So double digit favorites
Speaker 4: are five and oh this year, so the first time
Speaker 4: they've been undefeated, not against the spread, just undefeated this
Speaker 4: late in the year and twenty seasons, only the second
Speaker 4: time in the past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is.
Speaker 4: Though they are undefeated against the spread. For that, you
Speaker 4: have to go back to nineteen fifty. That is the
Speaker 4: last time double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread
Speaker 4: through eleven weeks. Let me put this in context for you, Colin.
Speaker 4: The point spread was less than a decade old in
Speaker 4: nineteen fifty. It was invented in like nineteen forty one
Speaker 4: by a commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time
Speaker 4: there was this kind of double digit cover streak was
Speaker 4: nineteen fifty, and the spread was an infant. It barely
Speaker 4: existed before. That's how unprecedentre this is.
Speaker 2: People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.
Speaker 3: I mean, that was just.
Speaker 4: Exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad at Milton. Oh yeah,
Speaker 4: so they're going to be on this. So but the
Speaker 4: point is, the wise guys are going to be on
Speaker 4: the panthers. They're going to bet against the trend. Same
Speaker 4: thing with the Titans. By the way, they don't love it,
Speaker 4: but they're going to bet against how bad the Titans
Speaker 4: have been against the spread. They're going to bet against
Speaker 4: the inflation you get from the Texans beating the Cowboys
Speaker 4: in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We see j
Speaker 4: Stroud this year. They do like the Titans defense. Talk
Speaker 4: about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves in the
Speaker 4: foot every week. So if they can get one of
Speaker 4: these breaks, that's the difference in a game where the
Speaker 4: number is more than a touchdown.
Speaker 2: Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.
Speaker 4: Good to see you too. Brother.
Speaker 1: The volume