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Speaker 3: Game Time?

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Speaker 2: We saw the Texans thump the Dallas Cowboys and I

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Speaker 2: got my Draft Kings bet right Houston minus four and

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Speaker 2: a half to cover in the first half.

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Speaker 3: First play of the.

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Speaker 2: Game was actually a touchdown ineligible man downfield. Screw that up,

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Speaker 2: but they scored Joe Mixon on a big run after

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Speaker 2: that to take a lead. Never look back. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the first thing is c J. Stroud has struggled for

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Speaker 2: about five weeks, and you can tell why. He's got

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Speaker 2: a bad offensive line and golf. They call it the yips.

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Speaker 2: He lets go of the ball too quickly. I don't

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Speaker 2: worry that he's got more interceptions now than he did

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Speaker 2: all of last year, because when he had Stefon Diggs

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Speaker 2: and Nico Collins healthy, he was four and one. He's

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Speaker 2: still undefeated in division. He's four and four after the

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Speaker 2: win over Dallas tonight in the rest of their games.

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Speaker 2: I think the Houston Texans are fine. They're the Green

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Speaker 2: Bay Packers of the AFC. They're a year away. They

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Speaker 2: need another draft. They're a little bit thin. The Packers

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Speaker 2: are a little young. Texans are a little thin. They

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Speaker 2: both have good young coaches, really good young quarterbacks. They're

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Speaker 2: just not ready to beat the Detroits or like the

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Speaker 2: Buffalo's in Kansas City's. But it's a good team. And

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Speaker 2: don't I don't take anything away from c J.

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Speaker 3: Stroud.

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Speaker 2: His comp was Jared Goff. Well, if you go back

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Speaker 2: to Jared Goff's third year in the NFL, that was McVeigh.

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Speaker 2: His passer rating dip to like mid eighties, high eighties,

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Speaker 2: and so you know CJ doesn't trust his protection. PFF

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Speaker 2: has their O line at like twenty six, twenty seventh.

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Speaker 2: His top receiver, Stefon Diggs is out. Nico Collins came

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Speaker 2: back tonight. He's been hurt. Nico Collins is amazing. He

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Speaker 2: went to Michigan. He was a southern kid from I

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Speaker 2: think Alabama, went to Michigan. Productive, but not a superstar

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Speaker 2: in college, like mid thirties catches and they got him

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Speaker 2: in the third round. And boy, he is a hard guard.

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Speaker 2: He is a hard guy to defend it it you know,

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Speaker 2: you can tell c J. Stroud and his comp is golf.

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Speaker 2: So he's not a playmaker. He's a sit in the

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Speaker 2: pocket and throw darts. When Goff's offensive line great, Jared's great.

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Speaker 3: His rookie year, c J.

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Speaker 2: Stroud had a very good offensive line. He was outstanding.

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Speaker 2: Goff and Stroud those were the comps by scouts, and

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Speaker 2: it was accurate. CJ moves a little better. But when

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Speaker 2: they don't have great protection, they rush things, they throw

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Speaker 2: more interceptions. They're just not as on point. And I

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Speaker 2: think that's c J. Stroud just needs better protection. He'll

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Speaker 2: be fine. I think the Jared Goff comparison's always been true,

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Speaker 2: and they have great protection. They're really special.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: It's interesting though, watching the Cowboys. So the Cowboys right now,

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Speaker 2: if you go to the current NFL draft order, there's

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Speaker 2: five teams with two wins, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Las Vegas Giants,

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Speaker 2: and then there's four teams with three wins, the Jets,

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Speaker 2: New England, Carolina, and Dallas. Dallas is now at three

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Speaker 2: and nine, and so the advantage for Dallas is, Listen,

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Speaker 2: they have a chance to end up with just three

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Speaker 2: wins now with Cooper Rush. But they played Tommy to

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Speaker 2: Veto and the Giants on Thanksgiving, and if they win

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Speaker 2: that game, and I think they will, that'll be their

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Speaker 2: fourth win. It'll take Dallas out of any shot for

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Speaker 2: a first, second, or probably third pick in the draft.

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Speaker 2: It's not a particularly strong draft, and they wouldn't take

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Speaker 2: Shadu or Sanders anyway. But what I was hoping is

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Speaker 2: if Dallas can get into the top five and they

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Speaker 2: still have a shot even if they beat the Giants,

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Speaker 2: that would be four wins. They also play Carolina. But

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Speaker 2: if you're Dallas at this point, this is why the

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Speaker 2: New York Giants are not going to go to Drew Locke.

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Speaker 2: They're going to Tommy DeVito. They'd rather not win games.

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Speaker 2: And the Giants have a real shot because I think Jacksonville, Tennessee,

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Speaker 2: and Cleveland are two talented they'll win another game. If

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Speaker 2: the Giants get beat by Dallas, there's a real possibility

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Speaker 2: they don't win another game, and they have the number

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Speaker 2: one pick, and they will absolutely draft shade or Sanders,

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Speaker 2: So Dallas. I would draft Shadeur Sanders, but I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: sign Dack to a long term contract. But Dallas isn't

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Speaker 2: going to draft him. There's some good players in this draft.

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Speaker 2: Umber two pick I think will be Kelvin Banks. He's

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Speaker 2: an offensive tackle from Texas. Travis Hunter, a very explosive

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Speaker 2: player from Colorado, will go second or third. Mason Graham,

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Speaker 2: the defensive tackle Michigan. Will Johnson, the corner from Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Will Campbell, the offensive tackle from LSU. T Mac the

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Speaker 2: wide receiver Arizona, really big target, Southern California kid. He's

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Speaker 2: really good player. Cam Ward is going to go somewhere

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Speaker 2: in the top ten, although I know little backyard football.

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Speaker 2: For me, I wouldn't draft him that high. But it's

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Speaker 2: not a great draft. There's a lot of Mchhale Williams

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Speaker 2: the defensive edge for Georgia. There's a lot of Georgia

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Speaker 2: and Michigan guys in the top twelve, top fifteen.

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Speaker 3: Not a great draft.

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Speaker 2: And listen, if I was Dallas and I got a

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Speaker 2: top five pick, I would move down because I don't

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Speaker 2: think they're close to Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo, Kansas City. I

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Speaker 2: don't think their rosters close. I don't think one player

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Speaker 2: is going to solve it. But if I don't think

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Speaker 2: this is a good enough draft where people are going

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Speaker 2: to want to move up unless you have a top

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Speaker 2: five pick and maybe a top yeah, a top five pick,

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Speaker 2: and somebody wants cam Ward, who I think is an

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Speaker 2: okay prospect. I think shud Or Sanders is a strong prospect,

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Speaker 2: kind of in the Jade and Daniels class. You know,

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Speaker 2: electric moving, nice arm, very accurate. You know, he's a winner.

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Speaker 2: He was a winner first year in college. He's a

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Speaker 2: winner at Colorado. I mean, they're a really good football

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Speaker 2: team now that can win the Big Twelve. So you know,

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Speaker 2: Dallas there is This is what happens for the Giants

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Speaker 2: who reached the do Daniel Jones, the Cowboys who have

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Speaker 2: overpaid Dak had some injuries. I would strongly consider the

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Speaker 2: one thing about this draft. It's week at quarterback, it's

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Speaker 2: strong at wide receiver, and it's strong in the first

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Speaker 2: round on edge rusher. I would consider moving Micah Parsons.

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Speaker 2: You know, somebody's going to give you a first round

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Speaker 2: pick and have to pay him. But you know, there's

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of teams in this league that are close,

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Speaker 2: but they could use an elite edge rusher and Mike

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Speaker 2: go unhealthy is that and you could go draft another

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Speaker 2: edge rusher and restart the clock on that position. And

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Speaker 2: there's several. Abdul Carter the edge rusher from Penn State,

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Speaker 2: it's a top ten pick again, Williams from Georgia, top

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Speaker 2: ten twelve pick. But I think I think Dallas, you know,

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Speaker 2: they have to have like a come to Jesus moment.

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Speaker 2: They're just not very good. I mean, you watch tonight.

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Speaker 2: You know Ceedee Lamb's an explosive player, but they know

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Speaker 2: their past protection is just okay. They have the weakest

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Speaker 2: running back room in the league. They have nothing after

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Speaker 2: Ceedee Lamb. Of note, they need a lot of help.

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Speaker 2: Their corners are okay, not special in my opinion. So

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Speaker 2: I think that's that's where Dallas is. It's not a

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Speaker 2: year in the NFL draft to want a quarterback. There's one,

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Speaker 2: and I think you know, listen, Vegas and the New

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Speaker 2: York Giants both need one. I think Sam Darnold will

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Speaker 2: probably have a market, a decent market, because I think

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Speaker 2: Minnesota is gonna I think they've got a chance to

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Speaker 2: sneak into the playoffs. They're just good enough. But Dallas

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Speaker 2: has a long way to go. Houston's gonna be fine.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna be fine. They're gonna get better next year.

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Speaker 2: I like their coach, their quarterback, their front office, They

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Speaker 2: got some players. Their old line is just kind of

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Speaker 2: a mess. A lot of panelies don't pass protect particularly well.

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Speaker 2: You saw it tonight. They don't pick up blitzes. They

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Speaker 2: just they just it's a bad unit. But but Dallas

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Speaker 2: has to really think long and hard. The downside a

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Speaker 2: mediocre draft like this year is the Cowboys would love

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Speaker 2: to trade down. This is why I believe they have

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Speaker 2: to have a top five pick, because the people the

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Speaker 2: only players that people will trade up for is a

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Speaker 2: Shadoor Sanders or maybe a cam Ward. There's there's like

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Speaker 2: one or two great tackles. There's four or five. I

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Speaker 2: think Mason Graham, the defensive tackle for Michigan's really really special.

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Speaker 2: He's been unblockable by a single offensive lineman in college football.

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Speaker 2: You kind of have to double team him, so, you know,

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Speaker 2: just it's interesting to see all these teams at the

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Speaker 2: top of the draft. Jacksonville, Tennessee, Cleveland, Vegas. You know,

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Speaker 2: you're kind of used to them, Jets, Carolina, Then all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden you go, oh yeah, Dallas, Wow, Dallas.

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Speaker 2: But you watch the night there's nothing there. So you're

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Speaker 2: you're seeing something all through college and pro sports. And

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Speaker 2: it was very noticeable this weekend, you know, the Trump

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Speaker 2: dance by young NFL players, African American players, white players,

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Speaker 2: veteran players, Brock Bauers, the young tight end for Las Vegas.

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Speaker 2: But I was really you know, athletes have a sense

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Speaker 2: of humor. You know, it's a sport. It's a business,

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Speaker 2: but it's a sport, and you know, after you score,

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Speaker 2: you celebrate.

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Speaker 3: I don't care what players do.

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Speaker 2: I really don't, but I did think it was interesting

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Speaker 2: that in soccer, United States men's national team star Christian

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Speaker 2: Polisic did the Trump dance. And the reason I think

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Speaker 2: it's surprising is that soccer tends to have a very young,

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Speaker 2: left leaning audience, and when he did it, I thought,

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Speaker 2: oh boy, there's going to be a meltdown. And regardless

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Speaker 2: of where I've always viewed myself really as a moderate independent,

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Speaker 2: but you can drive yourself crazy all you want. But

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Speaker 2: the reason the athletes are doing this is because it's

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Speaker 2: really a quirky, weird, odd dance, and every time Trump

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Speaker 2: did it, it just looks so outdated. And I think

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Speaker 2: Trump sort of leans into it now and knows people

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Speaker 2: get a kick out of it, and it's okay to

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Speaker 2: take a deep breath. And regardless of what you think

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Speaker 2: of a politician, it is a three second, four second dance.

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Speaker 2: They're pro athletes. Take a deep breath, or you can

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Speaker 2: go into therapy for the next four years. And because

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Speaker 2: you're side lost and be miserable. You know, sometimes I

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Speaker 2: think in politics the greatest advantage conservatives have is people

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Speaker 2: watching the other side melt down and look crazy and

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Speaker 2: out of their mind. It's just a dance, it's no

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Speaker 2: big deal. It's three seconds. Athletes have a sense of humor.

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Speaker 2: We're all going to be okay on that. But it

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Speaker 2: was noticeable to me that when Poolisic did it, I thought, oh,

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Speaker 2: that's that's surprising. You know, soccer players in the soccer

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Speaker 2: community have always felt a little European, kind of left leaning,

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Speaker 2: young stylish.

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Speaker 4: That's what it's.

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Speaker 2: Always felt like to me, you know, the hipsters.

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Speaker 3: I love.

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Speaker 2: I love soccer. You know, I've told the story before.

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Speaker 2: My mom was British and when I was a kid,

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Speaker 2: really really young, I was probably six years old, seven

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Speaker 2: years old, my mom took me to England, and England

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Speaker 2: was the Netherlands with Johann Croive a great soccer star,

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Speaker 2: and England where the dominant kind of teams in the world,

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Speaker 2: and England had won a World Cup back then, and

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Speaker 2: my mom bought me a little soccer set and I

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Speaker 2: can remember playing with it in the window ledge in England, Lancashire,

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Speaker 2: in the middle of England, where my mom was from,

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Speaker 2: and so I remember those I had these strong It's

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Speaker 2: one of the first memories of my life is playing

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Speaker 2: with this soccer game and Netherlands wore orange, that's their

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Speaker 2: country's color, and it was on television. It must have

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Speaker 2: been around, you know, the World Cup, because that's all

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Speaker 2: my mom and her twin brother, my late mother and

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Speaker 2: her twin brother, Peter, that's all they you know, that

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Speaker 2: was like a big topic of conversation and they went

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Speaker 2: and got me that soccer game. So I've always been

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Speaker 2: and then I moved to the Pacific Northwest. You know,

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Speaker 2: I was from there, the Seattle Sounders, the Portland Timbers,

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Speaker 2: and then I went there in my career. So I've

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Speaker 2: always liked soccer, especially the United States men's national team.

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Speaker 2: But I didn't look at the reactions of their face

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Speaker 2: when Polistic did that. But I thought, there's gonna be

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Speaker 2: some melt founds over that. And again, take a deep

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Speaker 2: breath to four second dance. People are just having fun.

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Speaker 2: So there's been some concern consternation on where is the

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Speaker 2: Shaq Barkley Ernie Kenny Johnson show going to go now

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Speaker 2: that Warner Brothers and TNT has lost the NBA and

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Speaker 2: this was going to be their last year with him.

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Speaker 2: So over the course of I think it was late

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Speaker 2: last week, it was announced in the negotiation between the

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Speaker 2: NBA and TNT, Adam Silver didn't want TNT involved in it.

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Speaker 2: Long story, mostly boring. The top executive for Warner Brothers

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Speaker 2: just pissed off Adam Silver and he no longer wanted

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Speaker 2: him associated with the league, and so basically they struck

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Speaker 2: a deal on ESPN is going to get the show,

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Speaker 2: The Barkley Shack Show. I actually think it is significant

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Speaker 2: because in the regular season that show is often more

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Speaker 2: entertaining than the games in a long NBA regular season,

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Speaker 2: and I'm a huge fan of Mike Breen. I never

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Speaker 2: understood breaking up Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson and Mike Breen.

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Speaker 2: I thought at the time it was easily their strongest

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Speaker 2: broadcast unit. I didn't get it. Probably political. Van Gundy

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Speaker 2: had been at times critical of the NBA, so it

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Speaker 2: felt like Adam Silver stepped in and blew that up.

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Speaker 2: And it's happened before. I remember when David Stern was commissioner,

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Speaker 2: I had heard complaints that he wasn't happy with the

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Speaker 2: I forget the broadcaster one of the broadcasters on ABCESBN

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Speaker 2: and David Stern had pressured ESPN to make changes. So

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Speaker 2: but I do think ESPN's NBA coverage for the last

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Speaker 2: I mean, what do they had the rights twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: two years. I love Breen, but it's just been a

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Speaker 2: revolving door of personalities and they've no really stepped up

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Speaker 2: and spent big money and got landed a superstar. And

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Speaker 2: I think this will really cement. I mean, let's be honest,

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Speaker 2: for years and years, Monday Night Football was kind of

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Speaker 2: swimming in mediocrity. It's nothing against the broadcasters, but it

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Speaker 2: never felt as good as like Al Michaels or you know,

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Speaker 2: the bigger broadcast teams. Jim Nantz and so Buck and

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Speaker 2: Aikman have solidified Monday night Football. They make it feel

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Speaker 2: big again. And for years, I just I felt like

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Speaker 2: it just it didn't feel as big as the Fox

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Speaker 2: Game of the Week or the Sunday Night Football Game

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Speaker 2: of the Week, or the CBS Jim Nance Romo.

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Speaker 3: Game of the Week.

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Speaker 2: ESBN felt like Number four and buckan Aikman have elevated it,

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Speaker 2: and I think ESPN's pre and postgame show has been

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Speaker 2: really weak, and I mean I mean the halftime shows

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Speaker 2: like two minutes and commercials.

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Speaker 3: I mean they don't even care. They're just selling spots.

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Speaker 2: So I think this will make it more formidable, like

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Speaker 2: Buckan Akman do. It'll make it feel big. And I think,

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Speaker 2: if you're Adam Silver, NBC is going to have NBA,

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Speaker 2: ESPN's going to have NBA, and Amazon's going to have NBA,

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Speaker 2: but the incumbent is ESPN, and I think it's a

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Speaker 2: strong play. I think, you know, I love the business

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Speaker 2: I'm in. I think Jimmy Bataro, who runs ESPN, has

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Speaker 2: taken big swings. I think Nick Saban, Pat McAfee, Buckan, Aikman,

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Speaker 2: Shaq Barkley, Jason Kelsey, Bill Belichick. Those are big swings.

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Speaker 2: And I think is our business. As the market's gotten

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Speaker 2: wider and wider and wider, it's harder to develop shows.

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Speaker 2: It's easier to go get widely recognized personalities. To put

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Speaker 2: a Nick Saban on a game day, and I think

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Speaker 2: he's been the perfect tonic on that show between all

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Speaker 2: their other cast just he just clicked with them. And

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Speaker 2: so I and the reason ESPN has done some big

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Speaker 2: game hunting. I mean they've really taken some big swings.

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Speaker 2: Is because for years and years they were swimming in

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Speaker 2: red with their streaming growth, you know, Disney Disney Plus,

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Speaker 2: and it was losing you know, four five billion a year.

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Speaker 2: Will they just turned to profit. This year they made

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Speaker 2: a billion, and so this point forward, Disney's going to

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Speaker 2: be making four eight, twelve twenty billion dollars a year

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Speaker 2: in their streaming. So you know, underneath Disney is ESPN.

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Speaker 2: And even though cable television is probably got six years left,

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Speaker 2: seven years left from what I read, Disney's now humming.

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Speaker 2: So they're taking big swings and they're going buying big

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Speaker 2: name people as the market has become very very wide,

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Speaker 2: and it's just it's when people there's so many platforms,

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Speaker 2: there's so many options. I mean, people are sitting on

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Speaker 2: TikTok all day. To get attention, you got to go

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Speaker 2: take big swings. And you know, I think that's what

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Speaker 2: Shack and Barkley and Kenny and Ernie are. I think

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Speaker 2: that's arguably as good as any pre postgame halftime show.

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Speaker 2: I think Fox's Football Show and that show are the

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Speaker 2: two that really stand out to me. The NFL season's

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Speaker 2: There's the Alabama quarterback that won a Natty in twenty

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Speaker 2: ten with a Crimson tide. He's the host of olwa's

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Speaker 2: College Football Greg McElroy, who we bring on two or

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Speaker 2: three times a year. The latest college football rankings have

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Speaker 2: come out BYU is gone. I don't have a problem

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Speaker 2: with it, I think, and I'm assuming most of you

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Speaker 2: who listened to my show know what the college football

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Speaker 2: rankings were. Oregon one, Ohio State two, Texas three, Penn

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Speaker 2: State four, Not sure I buy Penn State, Indiana five

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Speaker 2: Notre Dame six, Bama, who I think is better than

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Speaker 2: advertised at seven, Miami eight. Don't know if I buy him,

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Speaker 2: Ole Miss nine, Georgia ten, Tennessee, who I had winning

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Speaker 2: the Natty eleven, and Boise State twelve. So here's let

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Speaker 2: me just throw this out there. For years and years

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Speaker 2: I heard Greg Big Ten fans always state, why don't

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Speaker 2: we have to go south to play our bowl games?

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Speaker 2: So what's interesting is Georgia would have to go to

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Speaker 2: Penn State, it's pickham, Ole Miss would have to go

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Speaker 2: to Indiana, and Alabama would have to go to Notre Dame.

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Speaker 2: I do think that's an advantage for cold weather teams

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Speaker 2: over warm weather teams.

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Speaker 1: Do you absolutely that's a huge deal, especially looking at

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Speaker 1: the I mean, what did Wisconsin just do this past week?

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Speaker 1: I mean, and I know that right now it's not

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Speaker 1: frigid ten temperatures in Madison, but they just got rid

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Speaker 1: of their air raid style offensive coordinator because it's hard

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Speaker 1: to throw and to be a pass happy offense in

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Speaker 1: November in the Big Ten, well raise it by at

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Speaker 1: least I don't know, three or four times the intensity

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Speaker 1: in the playoff setting in December. I mean, look, I've

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Speaker 1: lived in Cincinnati in New Jersey in my time in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. The day I left Cincinnati it was minus

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Speaker 1: thirty two degrees wind chill, and I thought to myself,

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Speaker 1: I'm never coming back. If I have to retire, I will.

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Speaker 1: I cannot play in this. We don't even have an

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Speaker 1: indoor facility at the Bengals. I cannot do it anymore. Ye, So,

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Speaker 1: long story short, I think you go to Columbus, you

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Speaker 1: go to Penn State. Depending on the day, it could

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Speaker 1: be a three to five point advantage in favor of

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Speaker 1: the home team.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. No, I agree with that.

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Speaker 2: So Greg McElroy, as many of you know as a friend,

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Speaker 2: he and Joel platter people I really like to talk

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Speaker 2: college football with. They're so prepared, and they both played

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Speaker 2: the quarterback position. Alabama's fascinating. First of all. Jalen Milroll,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, and I do this for a living.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what to make of him as a

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Speaker 2: pro prospect.

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Speaker 3: I really like.

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Speaker 2: Him as a college quarterback. I think he throws a

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Speaker 2: beautiful deep ball. He's got really like a Russell Wilson

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Speaker 2: deep ball touch. It's a beautiful ball, incredibly catchable, and

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Speaker 2: I think kayland Boor. I think we forget that Kaylen

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Speaker 2: de Boor is a great coach and took over a

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Speaker 2: great program. But you're instituting your own culture. And I

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Speaker 2: think Nick was more of a little bit more of

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Speaker 2: a screamer.

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Speaker 3: A volume coach like Loud.

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Speaker 2: That's not Kayln. He's more of a teacher and a mentor.

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Speaker 2: So there's an adjustment for the players in Alabama.

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Speaker 3: It's a new way. So they've had a couple of.

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Speaker 2: Really bad halves, really bad halves, and I'm like, okay,

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Speaker 2: but I don't care if you're taking if I'm taking

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Speaker 2: over Nike, it's a great company. I'm trying to change

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Speaker 2: the culture and institute my worldview. So I think Alabama

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Speaker 2: now is actually underrated. I think it's gonna I think

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Speaker 2: by the end of this season, you're going to look

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Speaker 2: at them and go, God, they're really good. They have

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Speaker 2: an NFL first second round quarterback, they have an excellent coach.

427
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:16,360
Speaker 2: But so I'm defending Alabama. My take is they get

428
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 2: cherry picked a little more than most teams because they

429
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 2: lose Nick and they're going to lose some guys in

430
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 2: the portal, and people cherry pick them. It's very hard

431
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 2: to follow Nick Caleb or is Kaylen's learning as he goes.

432
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 2: Alabama's not Washington, Okay, al The culture's different, the demands

433
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 2: are different, the intensity, the media.

434
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,960
Speaker 3: It's a relentless job. Washington's not.

435
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 2: They got the Seahawks right down the road. If you lose,

436
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 2: people forget very quickly. I think he's done a great job.

437
00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 2: I think Alabama now is underrated. You know the program

438
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: better than anybody. Am I overstating what they can do?

439
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 2: I think they can win a Natty. In fact, I

440
00:23:56,160 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 2: would take them over I would over Georgia. But I

441
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: don't think that's I don't think that's the view of

442
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 2: most experts.

443
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 1: I think that they've been a bit of a punching

444
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: bag this year, understandably because we chase false gods in sports,

445
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: you know, like, do you realize that I don't know.

446
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: I mean you cover the NBA. Did Michael Jordan ever

447
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: miss a game winning shot? Absolutely not? Because I check

448
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 1: YouTube highlights and I don't see a lot of misses

449
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 1: on there. Like we chase false gods, and I feel like,

450
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: even though we're just one year removed, people will look

451
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: at Nick Saban's tenure and they're going to sit there

452
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 1: and think, oh well, he never played close against teams

453
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: after a law after a big win, Oh well, he

454
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 1: never had a two point win against South Carolina, who

455
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: at the time was like a five hundred football team.

456
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 4: Oh well, well.

457
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: He never did this, and the realities is not true.

458
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,720
Speaker 1: Nick Saban after a win or after a loss, excuse me,

459
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: was like eight and fourteen against the spread in the

460
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 1: last five years.

461
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 4: You know.

462
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 1: It's like it's like nobody are in the last ten

463
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 1: years or something. It was like some absurd number. I mean,

464
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 1: it's it's ridiculous. It's not accurate. The people don't want

465
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 1: to remember that because they just remember the dominance of

466
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: the greatness for so long. And that's not disparging Nick

467
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,439
Speaker 1: at all. I think he's the greatest coach in the

468
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 1: history of college football. It's just people don't realize that

469
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,120
Speaker 1: he also had teams that had flaws and that had

470
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 1: growing experiences, and I think this team has had that.

471
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 1: And the unfortunate thing about this team is his team

472
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,239
Speaker 1: is going to go, or at least it has up

473
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 1: to this point. How their quarterback goes to be. This

474
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 1: quarterback dependent is a challenge. Your best offensive weapon outside

475
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: of Jalen milro is a true freshman who is an

476
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: undersized wide receiver that has freak show qualities, but he's

477
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:57,080
Speaker 1: not you know, he's not Megatron. There's going to be

478
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: some defensive backs that he has a tough matchup again,

479
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: and there's going to be some that he torches. But

480
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: he's young. Your running game is really good, and your

481
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 1: offensive line is developing into a star. That is what

482
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: I think is most encouraging about where Alabama's going on

483
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 1: their trajectory. And they're very young on defense with a

484
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: new system, and they've played a little better and better

485
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 1: down the stretch too. So I think you're buying low

486
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: on Alabama if you buy them now. Can they win

487
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 1: the Natty? I think it's all matchup driven. That's what

488
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 1: I think is cool about where we're going is it's

489
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: very matchup driven. But I do think they can do

490
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 1: it if the things bounce their way in they play

491
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 1: their a game down the stretch.

492
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 2: So I made the argument the other day, I don't

493
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 2: I thought the win over Penn State. Penn State had

494
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,360
Speaker 2: opportunities to win that game, and I'm not saying Penn

495
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 2: State's not worthy of the playoff, but if Indiana beat

496
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 2: Ohio State and Oregon beat Ohio State, in my opinion,

497
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 2: the two best teams they've played, because if Indiana beats

498
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 2: Ohio State, they're for real now they're a thirteen point under.

499
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 3: Doinars probably won't.

500
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 2: But I made the argument is if Ohio State lost

501
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 2: to Oregon in Indiana, man, I that doesn't I mean

502
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: that you're certainly not getting a home game from me

503
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,280
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. Now what do you make of Ohio State?

504
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 2: I call them the whack a mole team. Every time

505
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 2: I'm watch, something else pops up that worries me. Yeah,

506
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 2: first it was their defense Oregon. Then it was their

507
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 2: offense Penn State, or it was their offense against Nebraska,

508
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 2: and then it was their quarterback play Will Howard against

509
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: Penn State, and I'm like, something's off.

510
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 3: There's just something.

511
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 2: And by the way, I felt this for the last

512
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 2: two to three years against Michigan, where Michigan had an

513
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 2: absolute identity Nick Saban's team's identity. What is Ohio State

514
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 2: in your eyes?

515
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 3: Beyond talented?

516
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 1: I think they're I ain't. They're a team that wants

517
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: to be rugged, but they still have a bun, you

518
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 1: know what I mean? Like they want to be rugged,

519
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: but they still have a lot of sport. It's like,

520
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 1: you know, they they have a dirt road that you

521
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: have to run in the Big ten to win a championship,

522
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 1: and they can't decide if they want to take their

523
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,439
Speaker 1: you know, Ford F one fifty or their GMC Sierra

524
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 1: or if they just want to say forget it, well,

525
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: who cares if we if we blow an axle, like,

526
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 1: let's drive the Ferrari and see what happens. I think

527
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:26,719
Speaker 1: that there is a bit of an identity. Do they

528
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,199
Speaker 1: want to be a running team? They want to utilize

529
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: quarterback run? Do they want to do they want to

530
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: be a drop back passing team. Are they a team

531
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: that wants to work off play action? Like I think

532
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 1: they can do all those things. I think they do

533
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 1: everything well, but they don't do anything elite, and that

534
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: to me is a little bit jaw dropping given their personnel.

535
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 1: Like I think they have a good defensive line, I

536
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: don't think they have an elite defensive line. Like I

537
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 1: think they have good run stopping defensive ends, but I

538
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: don't think they have defensive ends that scare me to

539
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: death and I can put my tackles on one on

540
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: one against them in an obvious passing situation. I think

541
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 1: they have really athletic linebackers, and I think those guys

542
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: are actually an upgrade from what they've had in the past.

543
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 1: But I also think they can sometimes over pursue and

544
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: Oregon hit them with some misdirections to my violation stuff.

545
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: I hate they have really good corners, but I also

546
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 1: don't know if those corners have seen elite elite level

547
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: wide receivers outside of that game against Oregon. And guess what,

548
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: every team they play in the playoff will likely have

549
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 1: elite level wide receivers. So it's a roundabout way of

550
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: saying I think Ohio State has a crazy high ceiling

551
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: and if they ever put it all together, it'd be

552
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: a special thing for all of us to watch. But

553
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 1: it's Week eleven. Yeah, what are we waiting for? And

554
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,280
Speaker 1: I hope badly it happens this week and not because

555
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: of Indiana or anything. I just want to see it.

556
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: You don't accumulate that many pros on one roster and

557
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 1: not just want something more. It feels a little bit

558
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 1: like the twenty fifteen team, you know what I mean,

559
00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: Like when they were in twenty fifteen, they had the

560
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 1: best roster, but they didn't have the best team now,

561
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:04,239
Speaker 1: and I don't know why that was.

562
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 2: I made this argument. I think to Urban Meyer a

563
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 2: year ago, I said, they're receiving recruiting has been so good.

564
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 2: Brian Hartline, I mean, it's just all five star guys

565
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: that even at practice, it's art, it's beautiful, and it's

566
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 2: hard not to be seduced as a head coach when

567
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 2: you're looking at these incredible first round wide receivers and

568
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 2: you have good backs, not pedestrian, they're good backs. You

569
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 2: have world class receivers. And I think at practice, I

570
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 2: think in game in film rooms, it's literally like putting

571
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 2: ice cream in front of an eight year old. It's like,

572
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 2: I'm going to eat it, even if I know it's

573
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 2: not good for me. And I think, what's happened. They're receiving.

574
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: Recruiting is so good that it's seductive, and they sometimes

575
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 2: whenever they have a bad drive, we're throwing the ball,

576
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 2: We're going to the perimeter, and it's like this happens now,

577
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: Saban his recruiting on the perimeter was great as well,

578
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 2: But the culture of Alabama was really about physicality and

579
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 2: when I thought Michigan separated from Ohio State. It wasn't

580
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: better players until the very last team. It was a

581
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 2: better identity and understanding of what they were. Hell, they

582
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 2: beat Penn State. They didn't throw a pass in the

583
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 2: second half on the road. So I think this may

584
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 2: not make sense, but you know a little. You know

585
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: some of this in the NFL. If your best athletes

586
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 2: are on the perimeter, it's seductive. You're going to be

587
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: a more finesse football team. Cincinnati, between losing Joe Mixon,

588
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: Higgins and Chase, of course you're gonna throw the ball.

589
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 2: It's just it's too appealing not to. And I feel

590
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 2: like with Ohio State, I don't know if they need

591
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 2: an eight minute drive to kill the clock. Is it

592
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 2: in them running the ball and eating up clock?

593
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 3: Is it in them? I don't know if it is.

594
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. And they're also sometimes when

595
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,320
Speaker 1: I when I watch Ohio State, and I felt like

596
00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: this a little bit like when I watched the Lincoln

597
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: Riley led Oklahoma teams. And this is not comparing Ryan

598
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: Day to Lincoln Riley. This is not. I just feel

599
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 1: like they look at a six yard gain like it's

600
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: a failure, you know what I mean. Like sometimes when

601
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: I watch them, it's like, oh, handoff to Judkins up

602
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 1: the middle, gain of five at second and five, it's

603
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: like guys are walking back to the you know, their

604
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 1: heads are hung. It's like that was a great play.

605
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I just think there is such a pressure

606
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: to not just perform at a high level, but to

607
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 1: have a highly intoxicating offense that goes up and down

608
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: the field. But also when you have an offense that

609
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: can score fifty, you're hanging your defense out to dry.

610
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: So then if you want to lean into your offense,

611
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: now everyone's gonna call you soft because that's that's what

612
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 1: people have been saying for the last two years. That's

613
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: why you lost to Michigan because you're quote soft. That's

614
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: not true. We aren't soft. It just Michigan was the

615
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: better team on that day.

616
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 2: And Michigan last year had better personnel. They were stacked.

617
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 1: It wasn't close. They were significantly more talented. And look

618
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: at the.

619
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 2: Draft they that, yeah, there's still more Michigan guys exactly.

620
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 1: So I just think that I think that I think

621
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: Ohio State needs to just stay the course.

622
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: Man.

623
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 1: They they're really talented. Don't try to be Michigan that

624
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:28,920
Speaker 1: has a good quarter. Don't try to be Michigan. Don't

625
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: try to be pen State. Just don't don't try to

626
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 1: be twenty fifteen Ohio State. Just be you, and you,

627
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,719
Speaker 1: the you that you are right now is plenty good

628
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: enough to go win a national championship. But I think

629
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: it's going to require improved offensive line play, which we've

630
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 1: seen it's it's been better the last few weeks. I

631
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 1: think it's going to require slightly more aggressive defensive philosophy

632
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,160
Speaker 1: with pressures and being able to ramp things up a

633
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 1: little bit. And I think it's going to require them

634
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: being a little bit more willing to roll the dice

635
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 1: on the perimeter some of the coverages.

636
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 3: I think.

637
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 1: Don't think you can play quarters all the time beat

638
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: beat high level teams. I don't think you can prey

639
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: press man all the time beat high level teams. I

640
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 1: just think it's gonna be interesting to watch them. I

641
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: think there's plenty of talent in there. I just think

642
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: you're right. I think it comes down to identity and

643
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 1: how they want to play into it.

644
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 2: Alright. Sharper Square, co host of The Favorites, Chad Millman.

645
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 2: All odds provided by DraftKings. So I had a rant

646
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: today on my very popular syndicated radio show Milman.

647
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, no, I'm familiar, I've I've heard it's big.

648
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:41,720
Speaker 3: People are talking.

649
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 2: So my take is what you don't want to become

650
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 2: is the NBA a very strong top, a soft middle,

651
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 2: and ten teams to eleven teams at the bottom that

652
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 2: are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the Eastern Conference now

653
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 2: and I said, as the NFL has become more quarterback

654
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 2: centric based on a CTE lawsuit and changes of rules

655
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 2: pivoting to the offense, that we are getting to be

656
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 2: a little nbaish in the NFL. A very strong top

657
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 2: of five or six teams, a pretty soft middle of

658
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 2: like the Seahawks Rams, and nine teams with two or

659
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,799
Speaker 2: three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking. And so

660
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:24,920
Speaker 2: I have never been prone to big favorites. But Detroit

661
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 2: last week at minus fourteen felt like one of the

662
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 2: smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and a half.

663
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 2: So I locked it in at ten this week on

664
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: the Herd. But I think one teams soft tanking and

665
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 2: one team is fighting for a playoff spot. One team

666
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 2: is now on a backup and not a great backup.

667
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: The other team has one of the better rookie quarterbacks

668
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,440
Speaker 2: in a long time. That team's at home playing for something.

669
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 2: I know it's not sharp sharper square, but I like

670
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 2: the commanders here.

671
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it,

672
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:01,120
Speaker 4: it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah,

673
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 4: you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you.

674
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 4: This is the week where they've decided they love massive

675
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 4: divisional favorites. I'm here to tell you they don't. The

676
00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 4: Wise Guys like the Cowboys. And part of this is, yes,

677
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 4: the number is so big, but there's also some regression

678
00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 4: from Jaden Daniels. Right, he was not very good against

679
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 4: the Eagles last week on Thursday Night. In fact, like

680
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 4: since that opening four game stretch where he was completing

681
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 4: eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete

682
00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 4: more than seventy percent of his passes in a game,

683
00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 4: And so you have to ask yourself, has he started

684
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 4: to come back down to earth. Has teams started to

685
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 4: figure him out? That's really the key to this game.

686
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 4: And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did

687
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 4: last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the

688
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 4: first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of

689
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 4: being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in

690
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 4: the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups

691
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 4: in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters

692
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 4: that we see in the league. But the wise guys

693
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 4: are going to be on the Cowboys here because this

694
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 4: number in a division game is just too big for

695
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 4: a rookie quarterback who's steadily declined as the season has

696
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 4: gone on. And by the way, the Rookie of the

697
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 4: Year ares odds are a great way to look at that, right,

698
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 4: how much is bo Nicks crept up in behind Jayden

699
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 4: Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation? So the

700
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 4: market is starting to recognize some of that.

701
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 2: So I like the Bears plus three and a half

702
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 2: hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that

703
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 2: they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that

704
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 2: they schemed up layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they

705
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:59,800
Speaker 2: just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the

706
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 2: low ratings. You know, I love Sam Donald, but boy,

707
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 2: they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God,

708
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have

709
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 2: been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they

710
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 2: have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and

711
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 2: I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC

712
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 2: change mattered Sharper square.

713
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:32,959
Speaker 4: So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five.

714
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 4: So the wise guys bet at five, they better at

715
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 4: four and a half, they better at four. They're still

716
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 4: betting it a little bit at three at three and

717
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 4: a half. If it gets any further than this, if

718
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 4: I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you

719
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 4: are locking in the Bears at three and a half,

720
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 4: you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three.

721
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 4: You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's been.

722
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 4: In that game against Tennessee last week. They covered the spread,

723
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 4: but not be because of anything Sam Darnold did. He

724
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 4: had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty percent

725
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:09,479
Speaker 4: of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right,

726
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 4: So he is not having a very good sort of

727
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The

728
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 4: problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I challenge.

729
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 4: The wise guy perception on this is they like the

730
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 4: Bears largely because they think that Caleb did what you

731
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 4: just said. He looked better. He was getting rid of

732
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,760
Speaker 4: the ball in less than two and a half seconds.

733
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 4: It's the first time he's been doing that, right, Can

734
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 4: they really block against a Minnesota Vikings defense that is

735
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:47,720
Speaker 4: so much more complex than the Packers Brian Flores destroys

736
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 4: rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams this season, when he is

737
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 4: facing a team that has a sack percentage which is

738
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,320
Speaker 4: basically the number of defensive players that end in a sack.

739
00:39:58,120 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 4: When he was facing a team that is a sack

740
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 4: percent of more than two point two percent, he's one

741
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:07,480
Speaker 4: and six. So you're looking at a guy who is

742
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 4: facing a team that is a sack percentage of five

743
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 4: and a half percent, And a lot of times it's

744
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 4: not even because they're bringing pressure, they're dropping a lot

745
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 4: of guys into covers. They just confuse the heck out

746
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 4: of offensive lines and young quarterbacks. So to me, that's

747
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 4: really the matchup you have to be careful of. It's

748
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:26,959
Speaker 4: why I'm staying away from this game. I just don't

749
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 4: think there's any value in this number too much bad

750
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 4: quarterback play, too much good defensive play.

751
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 2: Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks. I've said this

752
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 2: for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is.

753
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 2: I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it.

754
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 2: Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll

755
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 2: move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future.

756
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 2: He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great.

757
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: Co Sel said it on my show this week. They

758
00:40:56,600 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 2: don't outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They

759
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 2: are really smartly schemed, and I think this is an

760
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 2: offense that is young in spots that is growing and confidence.

761
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 2: I like teams that have an identity. As the season

762
00:41:11,040 --> 00:41:13,759
Speaker 2: goes on. It takes teams time, even the Patriots and

763
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's

764
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 2: time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams

765
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 2: still don't have it. Seattle does an Arizona does Sharper square.

766
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:29,360
Speaker 4: So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I

767
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 4: agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly

768
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 4: who they are right they are even on defense. They

769
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 4: are still a physical football team. James Connor is a

770
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,880
Speaker 4: really violent runner, and they know if they are able

771
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 4: to get him the ball and be effective in the

772
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 4: running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in

773
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 4: the passing game. And they're just going to be the

774
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 4: better team because of those two players, especially against a

775
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 4: team like the Seahawks, which just last week before the

776
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 4: gaming it's the Niners. They release their leading tackler, like

777
00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 4: that tells you how much they don't know who they are.

778
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 4: It is like they're making pretty big personnel moves coming

779
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 4: out of a buy in advance of a huge division game.

780
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 4: And I would not take anything from the Seahawks win

781
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 4: against the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for

782
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 4: the Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that

783
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 4: impacted the game tremendously. So whilse guys are with you,

784
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 4: the Cardinals in Decide, they're you know, pun intended. They're

785
00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 4: putting the cards on the table here right because they

786
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:34,320
Speaker 4: can take significant control of that division coming off a

787
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 4: by with a lot of hype on this team right now,

788
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 4: so it's a big step up game for them.

789
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,919
Speaker 2: I like Green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now,

790
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:45,839
Speaker 2: if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's

791
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,720
Speaker 2: just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay.

792
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 2: Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynch

793
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 2: pin of the defense, and when he's out and he's

794
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 2: banged up consistently, it's not very good. And I say

795
00:42:59,360 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 2: this about Sam Forrancisco, you are what your record is.

796
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 2: They're a five and five football team, and they're not

797
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 2: very good on special teams. They don't get the consistent

798
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 2: pass rush. Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue.

799
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 2: They miss a deep threat now. Christian McCaffrey is still

800
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 2: not at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay

801
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 2: the best kind of team to bet. They won and

802
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 2: played poorly. You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home

803
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:25,879
Speaker 2: minus one and a half.

804
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 4: Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys are all over

805
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 4: the Niners here. The number was a two and a half.

806
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,439
Speaker 4: They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news

807
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 4: because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder

808
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 4: and was going to be day to day. He practiced

809
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:44,879
Speaker 4: yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick

810
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 4: Bosa here. Was about brock Purty and the wise guys.

811
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:51,399
Speaker 4: Look at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no

812
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 4: bigger difference this week in sort of our luck rankings

813
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 4: than the Packers, who are at the top of the

814
00:43:57,400 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 4: luck rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in

815
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 4: games They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot

816
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 4: of blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play

817
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 4: last week. The Niners have had terrible luck, terrible turnovers

818
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 4: at the wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time

819
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 4: in multiple games. Right, So you're looking at two teams

820
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 4: that are really diametrically opposite in terms of how things

821
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 4: have played out for them, and you ask a lot

822
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 4: of wise guys and they'll say they have this game

823
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 4: even on the road at Green Bay Power Raider to pick.

824
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,320
Speaker 4: So you're getting a point and a half of value

825
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,720
Speaker 4: right now on the Niners. So that's why the wise

826
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 4: guys like them.

827
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 2: Rams didn't look great and I have no home field advantage.

828
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 2: I like Philly minus two and a half. It'll be

829
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 2: a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense

830
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 2: is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of

831
00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 2: pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well.

832
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 2: I think rosters it's a miss match. It'll be actually

833
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 2: a semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I

834
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:09,240
Speaker 2: don't have to love Nick Sirianni. They are hummon. Saquon

835
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: Barkley is playing the best football he's ever played in

836
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 2: his life. They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half.

837
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:16,480
Speaker 2: Kind of surprised at the line. I thought it would

838
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 2: be bigger Sharper square.

839
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 4: Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's

840
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 4: no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites

841
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 4: today that there's no real wise guy side. They've come

842
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 4: in on the Rams when it's at three. They've come

843
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 4: in on the Eagles when it's at two and a half,

844
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,839
Speaker 4: and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you.

845
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:40,239
Speaker 4: I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams

846
00:45:40,280 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 4: the past two weeks. I felt like they were in

847
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 4: good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots

848
00:45:45,239 --> 00:45:48,440
Speaker 4: against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not

849
00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 4: playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford very well,

850
00:45:52,080 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 4: and the key to this team and you and I

851
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:56,239
Speaker 4: have talked about this. Sean McVay. For all of his

852
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 4: motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes to run the

853
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 4: ball and that's the strength of this team. I don't

854
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,280
Speaker 4: see the Rams being able to run the ball against

855
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 4: the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by the way,

856
00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 4: Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five, the Eagles

857
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 4: have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which is basically

858
00:46:16,840 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 4: a fancy way of saying how many points they're expected

859
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 4: to give up on defense on a particular play, to first,

860
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 4: like this defense has finally figured out what he was

861
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 4: trying to teach them and they're locked in In the

862
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:33,319
Speaker 4: back of the secondary. Cooper Deujen is one of the

863
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 4: top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. That

864
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 4: should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper,

865
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:43,640
Speaker 4: Cupp and pukuin Nukua. So I'm with you. I like

866
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 4: the Eagles here. I think it's a good spot for them.

867
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 2: Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, Go back on

868
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 2: the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago,

869
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 2: now that they're healthy, are a really good football team.

870
00:46:56,080 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 2: Special teams, offense, They're resourceful on offense, they are physical

871
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 2: on defense. They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does

872
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 2: not have like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd,

873
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 2: so it will be mostly a Chargers fan base at

874
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:15,320
Speaker 2: home again. Chargers come off a win, feeling good about

875
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:20,320
Speaker 2: themselves and comfortable. The Ravens come off a physical, emotional

876
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 2: rivalry game. I like the Chargers plus two and a half.

877
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 2: Sharper square.

878
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 4: Two and a half is not where the wise guys

879
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 4: like it. They loved it at three. I think if

880
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 4: you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of

881
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 4: tempting fate, right. You would expect this to be a

882
00:47:38,040 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 4: field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked

883
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 4: about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the

884
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 4: Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but

885
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,399
Speaker 4: who have they really played. We saw a little bit

886
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:53,360
Speaker 4: of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals

887
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 4: did such a good job coming back and probably should

888
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 4: have won that game if not for some really some

889
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 4: bad miss kicks and couple of bad flags and the

890
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 4: Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the Chargers

891
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 4: do to the Ravens what other teams have done all year,

892
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,399
Speaker 4: which has beat them in the second half through the air.

893
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 4: They have the talent, I think where everyone is seeing

894
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:16,840
Speaker 4: what's going on with Lad McConkie and are excited about

895
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 4: him as a connection with Justin Herbert. But the Chargers

896
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:21,880
Speaker 4: have been terrible in the second half this year, so

897
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,040
Speaker 4: you're going to have to expect them to do something

898
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 4: they haven't done this year in the second half, which

899
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 4: is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to

900
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 4: do it and basically win the game because you're betting

901
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 4: less than the field goal. So at two and a half,

902
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 4: it's just not very sure.

903
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 2: I like the Patriots plus seven and a half a

904
00:48:46,160 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 2: Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think Drake may is finding himself.

905
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 2: Miami is one of those teams where you're never quite

906
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 2: sure exactly what you get. They blow more opportunities than

907
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 2: they should. I think Miami wins this game. But this

908
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 2: just feels like an obvious sharp side New England playing hard,

909
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 2: people playing for stuff here, young team, young coach, young quarterback.

910
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 2: They're not playing like they want the number one pick,

911
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 2: nor do they need it, because they have their quarterback

912
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 2: they're not soft tanking for Shadoor Sanders. You know, they

913
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 2: have to upgrade positions defensive end and wide receiver, and

914
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 2: it's a defensive end wide receiver draft. I like the

915
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 2: Patriots to play hard, keep it close, Sharper square.

916
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:34,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven

917
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,000
Speaker 4: and a half the wise guys like the Patriots. There's

918
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 4: no doubt about it. And if you've watched the Dolphins

919
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 4: the past two weeks, they were fine against the Rams.

920
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 4: Their defensive line played great, they got to Matthew Stafford.

921
00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 4: But the Rams gave that game away five field goals.

922
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 4: They couldn't score touchdowns. They were missing snaps, they were throwing,

923
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 4: you know, tipped interceptions. They did not play well. And

924
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 4: if you look at the game against the Raiders last week,

925
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 4: the Dolphins were only up by five points with three

926
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 4: and a half minutes left. There was a miracle defensive

927
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 4: pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the Dolphins the

928
00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:14,800
Speaker 4: ball and converted a third down for them instead of

929
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,080
Speaker 4: getting the Raiders the ball back. And that was sort

930
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 4: of the end of the game. And they end up

931
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 4: scoring thirty five points or whatever it is. But they

932
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:24,279
Speaker 4: were up by five points. The Raiders are going to

933
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 4: cover that game, and if they'd gotten the ball back,

934
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 4: potentially won that game. So I just haven't been impressed

935
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,759
Speaker 4: with the Dolphins, whereas I have been really impressed with

936
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 4: Drake may He's just a gamer. And I think the

937
00:50:36,840 --> 00:50:42,480
Speaker 4: biggest problem for this Patriots team is Gerald Mayo is

938
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 4: such a conservative play caller. It doesn't seem to really

939
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:50,320
Speaker 4: know how to run the math yet when you're going

940
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 4: for two, should you go for one? When do you

941
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 4: want to go forward? And fourth down? He's coaching like

942
00:50:55,640 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 4: a defensive coordinator in key sort of pivot spot for

943
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 4: the game, and that's where the biggest challenge comes in

944
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 4: for the Patriots to cover. But the wise guys, you're

945
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 4: with you. They like the seven and a half.

946
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 2: I like the Colts at home getting seven and a

947
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 2: half Lions. Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving and

948
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 2: they're you know, they're playing perfect football. The Colts, I

949
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 2: thought Anthony Richardson looked as good as he has ever looked.

950
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 2: I think they've kind of figured out what he is.

951
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 2: Some of that is the Jets aren't very good. But

952
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 2: I've been saying this for a month. I like the

953
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 2: Colts personnel. I really do. I have both of their lines,

954
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:36,839
Speaker 2: especially their O line. They've got playmakers on the outside.

955
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 2: I could see the Lions looking ahead to Thanksgiving. They're

956
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: blowing people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus

957
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 2: seven and a half at home.

958
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:46,479
Speaker 4: Sharper square couldn't be Sharper's sharpest play of the week.

959
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 4: Like the Colts are one of those teams where a

960
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 4: lot of wise guys when they look at this. Certainly,

961
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 4: how I think about it when I'm deciding if I

962
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 4: want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do

963
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 4: I believe this is sort of the right side from

964
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 4: a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against

965
00:52:06,960 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 4: going to have an overinflated number because they're public because

966
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 4: of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes,

967
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 4: nobody is winning it a better clip than the Lions.

968
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 4: They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.

969
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:22,080
Speaker 4: That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number

970
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 4: one great. I like the Cults here. Number two. Do

971
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 4: I believe there's a part of the game where they

972
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:30,840
Speaker 4: can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line, best

973
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 4: run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has been

974
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 4: playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I think

975
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 4: he played great last week. I think with his ability

976
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:43,280
Speaker 4: to run against a defensive front that cannot get pressure

977
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,439
Speaker 4: since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will show

978
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 4: you they are not a team that's getting a lot

979
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 4: of pressure. So that's number two. I'd like that number three.

980
00:52:52,200 --> 00:52:55,359
Speaker 4: There are a ton of trends that back this up,

981
00:52:55,400 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 4: and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling. But in this case,

982
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 4: like you got teams who are road favorites the game

983
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 4: after being a double digit favorite in any location, they've

984
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 4: had significant against the spread struggles the past decade forty

985
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 4: three percent against the spread, Teams that are averaging thirty

986
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:20,359
Speaker 4: three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage, those

987
00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:24,240
Speaker 4: teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread,

988
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 4: and if they are coming off a double digit win,

989
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 4: twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of

990
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,439
Speaker 4: matchup reasons, there's a lot of inflation reasons, and there's

991
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:35,160
Speaker 4: trend reasons. So checks out the boxes.

992
00:53:36,000 --> 00:53:38,640
Speaker 2: Okay, a game, I want you to talk me into

993
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:41,160
Speaker 2: Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a

994
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 2: divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young

995
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 2: teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's

996
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,440
Speaker 2: a really interesting team right now, so we know their

997
00:53:52,480 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 2: defense has been exceptional. Bon Nix is making leaps like big,

998
00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 2: no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton text me this week

999
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,760
Speaker 2: and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm.

1000
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 3: Is way better than anybody understands.

1001
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:10,919
Speaker 2: Greg co cell echoed that this week, he's like he's

1002
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:15,920
Speaker 2: making NFL elite throws down the middle of the field, hard,

1003
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 2: deep throws. Arm is not an issue. Talk me into it.

1004
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:21,920
Speaker 2: I think the Broncos are the side for me.

1005
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:22,720
Speaker 3: Sharper Square.

1006
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:27,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to

1007
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:31,719
Speaker 4: this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed

1008
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 4: with the Broncos and feel like they've been emboldened by

1009
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 4: that Chiefs loss. And we saw it last week, right

1010
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 4: like the Wise guys they were coming all over in

1011
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,359
Speaker 4: on the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in

1012
00:54:45,400 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 4: that game and that and it matched right like it

1013
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 4: was a Falcons team that was coming in and they

1014
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,960
Speaker 4: were supposed to be a good team and the Broncos

1015
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 4: blew them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the

1016
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:57,800
Speaker 4: same way this week I bet they're about the Raiders.

1017
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 4: I think the numbers gotten too high. It's at six,

1018
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 4: and that's because the wise guys have been betting it up.

1019
00:55:05,320 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 4: There's no matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like they're

1020
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:12,520
Speaker 4: terrible team. They seem to keep themselves in every game

1021
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 4: until Gardner Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four

1022
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 4: lost fumbles this year, which is I think second in

1023
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 4: the NFL. He's got I think nine interceptions, which is

1024
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:31,279
Speaker 4: third in the NFL, thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the

1025
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:37,160
Speaker 4: script for this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve

1026
00:55:37,200 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 4: points double digit something, has a chance to put his

1027
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 4: team and get him through the back door, and he

1028
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:46,840
Speaker 4: does something that costs his team the game, and you know,

1029
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:51,120
Speaker 4: he loses the ball, he fumbles whatever. So you're probably

1030
00:55:51,120 --> 00:55:52,759
Speaker 4: on the right side, but I think you've lost the

1031
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:53,720
Speaker 4: value in the number.

1032
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:56,839
Speaker 2: Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I

1033
00:55:57,000 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 2: like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina,

1034
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 2: but all stay away. But I think generally, you know,

1035
00:56:02,719 --> 00:56:05,759
Speaker 2: Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though

1036
00:56:05,800 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 2: he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team,

1037
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:10,799
Speaker 2: and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him,

1038
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 2: but give me something else.

1039
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:15,520
Speaker 4: Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina, I hate to say, like.

1040
00:56:15,560 --> 00:56:19,120
Speaker 4: The Wise guys like Carolina here. They like what they've

1041
00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,840
Speaker 4: seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks that

1042
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 4: he played. They like the idea that this is also

1043
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:28,720
Speaker 4: a really good run blocking unit and while the Chiefs

1044
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 4: run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still an

1045
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 4: opportunity here for the Chiefs and if they aren't running

1046
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:40,400
Speaker 4: it very well. They have liked what they've seen. The

1047
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:42,319
Speaker 4: Wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce Young

1048
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 4: and his ability to find the right receivers, especially against

1049
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 4: the chief secondary that isn't very good. You got to

1050
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:52,360
Speaker 4: go on the road win is a double digit favorite.

1051
00:56:53,520 --> 00:56:56,879
Speaker 4: It's just a bad spot and historically now this year,

1052
00:56:57,960 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 4: double digit favorites are rushing right, it's been.

1053
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 2: That's my take at the top of this podcast was, yeah,

1054
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:08,360
Speaker 2: the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference

1055
00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:12,240
Speaker 2: between Denver and Orlando is significant.

1056
00:57:13,480 --> 00:57:15,839
Speaker 4: Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats here.

1057
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 4: Then if you're gonna be talking about this because it

1058
00:57:19,200 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 4: helps illuminate it a little bit. So double digit favorites

1059
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 4: are five and oh this year, so the first time

1060
00:57:26,720 --> 00:57:31,400
Speaker 4: they've been undefeated, not against the spread, just undefeated this

1061
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 4: late in the year and twenty seasons, only the second

1062
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 4: time in the past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is.

1063
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:41,600
Speaker 4: Though they are undefeated against the spread. For that, you

1064
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 4: have to go back to nineteen fifty. That is the

1065
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:48,360
Speaker 4: last time double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread

1066
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 4: through eleven weeks. Let me put this in context for you, Colin.

1067
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 4: The point spread was less than a decade old in

1068
00:57:58,560 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 4: nineteen fifty. It was invented in like nineteen forty one

1069
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:07,479
Speaker 4: by a commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time

1070
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:13,560
Speaker 4: there was this kind of double digit cover streak was

1071
00:58:13,680 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 4: nineteen fifty, and the spread was an infant. It barely

1072
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 4: existed before. That's how unprecedentre this is.

1073
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 2: People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.

1074
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 3: I mean, that was just.

1075
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 4: Exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad at Milton. Oh yeah,

1076
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:32,280
Speaker 4: so they're going to be on this. So but the

1077
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:34,360
Speaker 4: point is, the wise guys are going to be on

1078
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 4: the panthers. They're going to bet against the trend. Same

1079
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:39,800
Speaker 4: thing with the Titans. By the way, they don't love it,

1080
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,840
Speaker 4: but they're going to bet against how bad the Titans

1081
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:45,040
Speaker 4: have been against the spread. They're going to bet against

1082
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 4: the inflation you get from the Texans beating the Cowboys

1083
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 4: in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We see j

1084
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 4: Stroud this year. They do like the Titans defense. Talk

1085
00:58:54,440 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 4: about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves in the

1086
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 4: foot every week. So if they can get one of

1087
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 4: these breaks, that's the difference in a game where the

1088
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:03,280
Speaker 4: number is more than a touchdown.

1089
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:05,800
Speaker 2: Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.

1090
00:59:06,520 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 4: Good to see you too. Brother.

1091
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 1: The volume