WEBVTT - The Work-From-Home Boom Is Here to Stay 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.240 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:15.000 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. You can 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:18.720 download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.000 If you can also listen to our radio show at 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.759 two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be sure to 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:27.080 watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:29.080 A lot going on, as we know, as there is. 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:31.840 It feels like almost every day when it comes to 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:34.920 of course, COVID nineteen UM and we are waiting maybe 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:39.000 some emergency authorization when it comes to Maderna's vaccine, so 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.120 we're following that. This is on a day when global 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:43.960 virus cases past seventy four point three million, deaths top 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.519 one point six million, and we're just seeing these numbers 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:49.760 continue to go higher. I should say that the US 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:54.480 hit a record three thousand eighty five deaths yesterday. Let's 0:00:54.880 --> 0:00:57.680 check in with carry alt Off. She is Associate Professor 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:01.400 of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University Boomberg School of Public Health. 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:04.000 She's with us on the phone from Baltimore, the Bloomberg 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.880 School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:10.200 of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. UM. Carrie, it's good 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:12.880 to have you here with Tim and myself. UM. I 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:14.520 always feel like on every day, I'm not quite sure 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.200 where to start. What is you think first and foremost 0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:19.640 when it comes to COVID in the vaccine today that 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:22.880 you think our listeners need to be aware of. I 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:25.639 think everyone needs to know that these hearings are going well. 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:31.440 The scientific rigor which the investigators and the expert that 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:34.120 have been brought in from lots of different places, the 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:36.880 rigor with which they're looking at this data is really important. 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:40.640 They are asking questions which some of which there are 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.039 answers for right now, some of which there are not 0:01:43.120 --> 0:01:45.759 yet answers for, and so there are ideas about how 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:49.240 to continue these trials. It's really important to figure that 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:53.960 piece out because right now, thankfully, so many people want 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:56.560 this vaccine and we need to keep pushing for that 0:01:56.680 --> 0:02:00.520 because as these vaccines become available, of course, they only 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:05.000 work if people actually choose vaccination Kerry. We learned also 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:07.720 in recent days about sort of the first here in 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:11.760 the US response that that wasn't so great to a vaccine, 0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:14.160 the first allergic response, and this was a healthcare worker 0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:19.320 in Alaska who didn't have a history of allergic reactions, 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:21.680 but this person was held overnight in the hospital and 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.720 it got a lot of coverage. Is this something that 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:27.760 should how how should people who want this vaccine think 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:31.200 about news like this? So I would say this, we 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:35.320 have to remember that reactions to vaccines, even severe allergic reactions, 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.360 do happen to a number of vaccines. It is something 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.640 that's expected, and that's why when you get a vaccine, 0:02:41.440 --> 0:02:44.480 you're typically doing it in a healthcare setting where those 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:47.520 individuals who are administering the vaccine are also trained in 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:50.920 how to essentially give you an eppie shot if you 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:55.600 need it for anaphalactus or other types of allergic reaction. So, 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.320 first of all, we know that allergic reaction is something 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.040 that happens. Of course, when ever there's a new product, 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:03.520 we we scrutinize every single one of these events. We 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:05.840 want to know when it happened, how it happened. We 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:08.120 want to know all of the information about it, but 0:03:08.160 --> 0:03:09.480 I think we also have to put it in the 0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:13.200 context of we know that these types of reactions happen 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:16.200 to vaccines and other medical products, and we also know 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:18.840 that there are a lot of people in these trials 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:22.079 who have been receiving these vaccines. It's something we will 0:03:22.120 --> 0:03:25.040 definitely be keeping our eye out, but right now, there's 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:28.400 no reason to believe that the anflexus rate after a 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:32.040 vaccination is substantially higher with this vaccine than what would 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.320 be accepted. And Carrie helped me out because this is 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:36.800 something we've asked a lot of UM. You know, your 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:40.119 colleagues at Johns Hopkins and other members of the medical community. 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.880 Is that my understanding is that if there is a 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:46.560 severe reaction to a vaccine, that you know it within 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:50.040 the first month. But again, we're working with new technology, 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:55.080 new science. UM Is that accurate though? So typically, you know, 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:58.240 in order to link the actual reactions back to the vaccine, 0:03:58.280 --> 0:04:01.000 there's there's a long process that goes on where you 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:03.920 really scrutinize everything. Of course, if it happens pretty quickly 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:08.440 after the vaccination, and some people say one month. UM. 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.880 In some of the Maderna data that was presented Um, 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:13.960 they were I'm sorry, it was a fiser data that 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:18.679 was presented that the reaction happened quite a few months later, 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.280 and so, you know, actually tying these reactions to the 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:24.880 vaccine itself. Sometimes people do put on a timeline like 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:27.159 one month, but really it comes down to the data 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:31.280 that are uncovered when that reaction is investigated. Just from 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:33.480 the standpoint of of of somebody with your background, an 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:38.240 epidemiologist who studies AIDS and it does AIDS research and 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:41.840 HIV research, what do you make of the development of 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.159 the vaccines that we're seeing right now. How big of 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:49.039 a deal is this? It is absolutely scientifically historic. It 0:04:49.279 --> 0:04:52.320 is hours and hours and hours of scientists, you know, 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:54.960 pouring your hearts and souls into trying to figure out 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:58.039 how to get this pandemic stopped with one of the 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:02.480 most important biomedical tools we've will have against coronavirus, which 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:06.560 is vaccination. We cannot say that it is the prominent 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:08.960 tool yet in our toolbox. Of course, we only have 0:05:09.040 --> 0:05:12.640 one sectine that's eu AID hopefully will have to probably 0:05:12.680 --> 0:05:17.200 by monday, and um, we're we're moving forward, but we 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:19.799 still have to wear masks, we still have to social distance, 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:23.000 we still have to take all of this very very seriously. 0:05:23.160 --> 0:05:26.240 Even um this week there was an interesting analysis looking 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:30.039 at excess deaths in person forty four. I mean, these 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:32.880 are these are people that we've been saying, oh, you 0:05:32.920 --> 0:05:35.320 know that they're not at the greatest risk of death. 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:38.920 And although that might be true, losing someone in that 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.839 age group, someone who is a young mother or a father, 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.760 someone who is someone's brother or sister, a person who 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:48.039 is a productive member of our society, losing them to 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:52.120 COVID is really a tragedy, as are all the death 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.320 due to COVID, but this excess death in this age 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:58.520 group is really it's shocking, it's compelling, and it just 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:04.160 reminds us that although these vaccines are absolutely scientific history, 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:06.920 it is also a time where we have to continue 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:10.000 to rely on all the layers in all the tools 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.000 in our toolbox to keep each other safe. So, Carrie, 0:06:13.000 --> 0:06:15.200 how do you see kind of the next few months 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.880 playing out for our world here in the United States 0:06:17.880 --> 0:06:24.120 in terms of virus numbers and also vaccine rollout. So 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:27.040 it's important to note that right now, the best tools 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.960 we have to reduce the number of new cases and 0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:33.200 to reduce the number of deaths are the tools that 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:36.240 we've had since the beginning, really, which is wearing your mask, 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:40.000 being home unless you absolutely have to, and um, making 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:42.479 sure that you're you're keeping space from each other when 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:46.440 when you're in public or in any enclosed environment in particular, 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:49.160 but even outside. So essentially, what we're trying to do 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.159 is just prevent that virus from transmitting from one person 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:54.640 to another, right, don't give it a host, so don't 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.440 get too close. It's really the name of the game. 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:00.480 And we need to put these practices in place and 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:05.120 continue with these practices until we do have more widely 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.760 distributed vaccine. With the Maderna news today, you know, we 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:12.280 hopefully will have a number of vaccines rolling out over 0:07:12.280 --> 0:07:14.440 the course of the next couple of months, which not 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:19.239 only increases the numbers, but also interestingly it could perhaps 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:22.560 give people some options. Right, so if for example, of 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:26.400 vaccine works better in older adults versus younger adults. UM. 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.720 One thing I just wanted to correct from earlier was 0:07:28.800 --> 0:07:33.640 that the case that I referenced of an individual developing 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:37.400 inflexis more than two months after being vaccinated. This actually 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:40.680 was prompted. It came from m Jacqueline Miller, the vice 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:45.560 president for Infectious Diseases Development at Maderna during FDA hearings today. 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:48.880 It was prompted by a question from Mark Sawyer, who's 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.560 the professor of clinical pediatrics at the University of California, 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:55.080 San Diego, and he said, you know, Maderna has done 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:57.760 a number of Phase one into clinical trials of m 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:02.120 R and A vaccines for really eight other pathogens over 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.360 the course of the last few years. And so he said, hey, 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:06.920 have you gone back into that data and looked to 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:09.800 see if those earlier trials if there were reports of 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:13.800 a flaccus among patients. And that's when Jackline Miller said, well, 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:15.840 there was this one report and a woman with a 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:18.760 sty allergy and she developed this more than two months 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.880 after being vaccinated. And so it does bring up this 0:08:21.960 --> 0:08:25.840 question of Okay, maybe this this um triggering of anifyl 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:29.080 acxis it might be different across different vaccines, and we 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:32.200 shouldn't just take what is happening in one and apply 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:35.600 it to a different vaccine. And that's what Maderna's chief 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.640 medical officer also noted that, you know, we we have 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:41.880 to watch each of these vaccines carefully and so we 0:08:42.040 --> 0:08:44.720 know who should be using witch vaccines, So no blanket 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:49.439 assumptions really along the way. I would be really hesitant 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:51.880 right now to do a lot of one getting assumptions. 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:55.040 These these are big trials. We will be following these 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:58.839 um wonderful volunteers well into the future, and so we'll 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:01.360 let the data show us what it needs to show us. 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:04.600 But given that the supply of this is so constrained 0:09:05.000 --> 0:09:10.160 and there are so few vaccines available right now, when 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:13.040 will people actually have the option to take one vaccine 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:17.520 over another if they do have concerns about anaphylaxics. Well, 0:09:17.520 --> 0:09:19.840 I think for a lot of people that the choice 0:09:19.880 --> 0:09:22.160 and vaccines of course has to come after at least 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.120 more than one receiving e u A, which hopefully will 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:27.640 come very soon. But then it will be this rollout 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:31.200 process coupled with the tearing process. Right So who is 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:33.840 the top priority right now? It's the healthcare workers and 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:37.520 the individual to a learning living in long term care facilities. 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:41.400 And so once we get those populations vaccinated, um hopefully 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:44.440 we will have higher production of at least two vaccines. 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.120 And so when this vaccine starts to roll out to 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:52.800 the more generalized population, there may be some more options. Yeah, 0:09:52.880 --> 0:09:56.040 really interesting. Hey, just real quickly, just got about thirty seconds. 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:59.600 What are your hopes, uh for the incoming Biden administration 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:03.240 come to Nuary. Um. I hope they stick to the 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:05.560 science and they let the science lead the way, and 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:10.480 they are putting together people and teams that are true, um, 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.400 followers of the science. Um. They are empathetic, compassionate people. 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.880 And I think that is the unstoppable combination to have 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:20.800 empathy and can move forward with the science so that 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.640 this virus gets stopped and we get back to living 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:27.079 our lives in a healthy way. Yeah. I think that's 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:28.960 a really good message in terms of really sticking to 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:31.480 the science because it says so much. UM, Carrie, thank 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:34.120 you so much. Dr carry alt Off, Associate Professor of 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:37.880 Epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:40.480 with US from Baltimore. The Bloomberg School of Public Health 0:10:40.679 --> 0:10:43.199 supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LP and 0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:46.240 Bloomberg Philanthropies. But it is so interesting to him, like 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:47.920 every time, you know, everybody goes back to and it 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:51.080 makes sense masks, social distancing, Like there's just those basic 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.360 things that still work. This is Bloomberg Business Week with 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:57.960 Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, the cover of Bloomberg 0:10:57.960 --> 0:11:00.600 Business Week this week is the work from Home boom. 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:02.960 It is here to stay and as a result, get 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:06.520 ready for some changes, including everyone some pay cuts. It's 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:09.240 really all about the urban exodus and the implications because 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.000 it has the potential to impact so much in our 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:14.320 world and economy. That story by Bloomberg News Finance reporter 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:17.239 no Boo Hire, who joins us on the phone from Seattle, 0:11:17.480 --> 0:11:19.800 along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber on the 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:22.760 access line in Brooklyn, and Joel kick it off for us. 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:24.520 I mean, I do feel like this working from home 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.840 thing has massive implications, and no one really lays it 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:30.600 out in the story. Yeah, that's right. I mean we've 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:34.760 been watching this trend um just evolved throughout the pandemic, 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.839 and and it started with people, you know, basically the 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.960 urban exodus, people leaving cities and going to the suburbs 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:44.560 or or the country. And then instead of renting some 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:47.640 of those places, people started buying and and then you know, 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:50.360 the employers started to catch up with with it eventually, 0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:52.640 and that's really kind of the new element. And I 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:55.760 think the one that that really distinguishes Noah's story has been. 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.000 You know, the shift was at first it was just 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:03.000 the real estate implications, but now it's about the pay implications. 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.880 And Noah's reporting actually centers on a store, on a company, 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.840 red Fin, the real estate company, and they actually almost 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:13.760 become the vehicle for the story. So Noah tells us 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:19.959 about this trend and what we've learned through red Fin. Yeah, well, 0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.319 I think you really you really captured it. I mean, 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:24.960 this is uh, this is a trend in HR policy 0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:28.640 right now. We've we've we've had this massive experiment in 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:31.479 working from home and I think a lot of companies 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:35.480 have found that it works for people. Um, it's not perfect. 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:39.120 There are for sure some drawbacks. UM, but as as 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.600 we've gone through the months, companies, I think, responding to 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.720 what they're hearing from their workforces, have realized that they 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:51.319 can allow for a much greater UH amount of remote 0:12:51.320 --> 0:12:55.680 work um when the pandemic is finally over. And that's 0:12:55.720 --> 0:13:00.360 forced them to really reckon with UH policies and how 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:02.840 you how you actually make this work in a way 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:07.040 that's that's fairer and reasonable for your business. And um, 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:09.280 really it's just opened up a giant can of worms 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:13.000 because uh, you know, the cost of labor and the 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:17.800 cost of living just vary so radically across the US that, um, 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.680 you could create situations where, you know, if someone moved 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:27.319 from the Bay Area to Phoenix or Atlanta, they um, 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.440 and they carried their salary with them. They just um, 0:13:30.480 --> 0:13:34.640 you create a situation where, um, you were paying way 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:38.080 above market essentially. Okay, So the Redfin thing that's so 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.439 interesting though, is that once people sort of moved out, uh, 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:44.320 and the company had to grapple with us, and they 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:49.360 were actually proactive I think and having a plan basically um. 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.760 And they basically realized that in order to implement this, 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.959 they needed to have some version of like a localized 0:13:56.600 --> 0:13:59.920 pay policy. Right, So, so tell us about how they 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:03.400 actually went about implementing that. Yeah, so on some levels, 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:06.360 like companies have been doing this for years, right, it's 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:09.880 just um uh like they they've thought about, well, if 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:12.480 we open a new office in a new city, what 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:16.160 do we pay people that What's interesting is that that 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:18.439 red Fin and I think a lot of other companies 0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:20.400 you know, had to do this on a mass scale. 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.040 So what red Fin did is they got a bunch 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:26.400 of data on cost of labor and cost of living. 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.200 UM their their real estate company. They're in the home 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.520 brokerage business, so they're they're pretty attuned to this stuff. 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:34.040 And I have a lot of in house data, but 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:37.880 they got external data as well UM to try and 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.360 craft the policy of what's fair and and and you know, 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:44.040 the data informed their decisions, but there were a lot 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.080 of judgment calls at the end of the day, and 0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:50.000 you know, they're still tweaking and trying to make sure UM, 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.760 you know, their policy works for their people and that 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:56.600 they can continue to recruit and retain the best people 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:58.440 because at the end of the day, that's that's really 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:02.240 what this is about for companies is you know, there's 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:05.680 even with unemployment where it is today, there for certain 0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.840 kinds of jobs, they're still an insatiable appetite UM in 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:14.320 demand for people and UM you know, as companies compete 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:17.040 for talent, they want to make sure they're paying the 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.360 right amount in the markets where those people want to be. No, 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:23.040 there's there's something you explore in the piece, the economic 0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.440 applications of this. The idea that people are leaving higher 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.560 cost areas moving to areas than aren't is expensive and 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:32.640 and with that, of course, if they're leaving a city 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.240 or a state, with them goes tax base, with them, 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.960 goes spending in that local economy. What are the long 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:45.080 term implications of this migration. Well, I don't think we know, yeah, 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:49.640 is the short and short non answer. But um, it's 0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.760 certainly doesn't seem like it's going to be helpful for 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:55.640 high cost places like New York and San Francisco as 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:58.800 they you know, as the whole country tries to uh 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:02.720 dig itself out of of of the economic implications of 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:04.960 the pandemic. I mean, it's not helpful when you have 0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:11.600 uh high earners leave your city. But at the same by, 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:14.000 you know, at the same time, like, we just don't 0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.920 know that at this point how extensive this is going 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:20.520 to be. And and there are some real benefits to 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:25.479 um living in being near where the action is, where 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.880 there are other people in your industry, and um, you 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:30.600 know that could be a draw for people to come 0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:32.600 back to some of these high cost places. Well that 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:34.640 this is the thing we don't know right no yet, 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:38.360 whether or not this kind of urban boom, you know, 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.120 and away from that urban boom, whether or not that's 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:43.920 going to stick. Because if you talk to a Jamie Diamond, 0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:45.680 if you talk to the heads of a bunch of 0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:48.120 financial companies, if you talk to the head of Netflix, 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.720 as you put in your story, they're not so on 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:52.880 board and think that this working from home thing is 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:56.360 going to stick. Yeah, I mean, I think what we're 0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:58.640 seeing a lot of companies do. I mean Google was 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:00.400 a recent one. They're gonna They're gonna go towards a 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:02.800 more hybrid model where people would come back in like 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:06.880 three days a week. That doesn't necessarily free people up 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.800 to leave the high cost city, but it may encourage 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.240 them to move to a suburb where they might not 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.920 have done that before if they were commuting in five 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:20.840 days a week. So there's there's both moves across the country, 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.280 but there are moves within metros which have real implications 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.280 for housing costs. I mean we've seen this all year 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.520 that in Redfin has seen this in their business. I 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:33.480 mean suburban houses. I mean people want single family homes 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:35.639 with a yard because of the pandemic, but they're also 0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:38.640 looking forward to what life might be like when office 0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:41.280 is reopened. And maybe it's not so bad if you 0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:43.560 have to do that longer commute because you're only going 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:47.840 into three days a week. So no, you know, you've 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.560 got really good access at redfin And I'm I'm gonna 0:17:50.600 --> 0:17:55.320 ask you to extrapolate here how willing were employees to 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:57.760 take this pay cut? I mean, it's obviously it's coming 0:17:57.800 --> 0:18:00.520 from HR. You can keep the job, but you can 0:18:00.680 --> 0:18:03.199 have a pay cut. I think that is to me, 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:06.360 the biggest question here is like if employees are actually 0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:10.199 willing to do this, But that willingness also depends on 0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.800 just probably how big the pay cut is. Right, So 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:16.520 so talk to me about the willingness to participate. Yeah, 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.560 I mean, look, the employees I spoke with who were 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.120 who were making these moves, I think ultimately felt like 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:28.040 the numbers were fair. Um. And and that's because you know, 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.320 when you moved to some of these places where your 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:33.600 pay is going to be lower, your cost of living 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:38.960 goes down, usually by even more. And um. Glenn Colman, 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:41.440 the CEO of Redman, argued to me, and I think 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:44.200 it was pretty persuasive on this point. But I think 0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:48.800 it's reasonable to expect that as more employers UH offer 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:51.960 remote work possibilities, we're going to see wages rise in 0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:55.720 some of these places where the cost of labor is lower, 0:18:55.840 --> 0:18:59.159 so you know, wages in Texas are going up, and 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.760 you might also see housing costs in places like Austin 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:06.240 golf as well. But but to think that these things 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:09.439 is not right. It's a great story. We're gonna talk 0:19:09.480 --> 0:19:11.720 a bit more about the migration to textas a little 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:13.840 bit later on No Boo Higher until Webber. Thank you 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:17.960 so much. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Cairol Masser 0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:21.920 on Bloomberg Radio BIS Bloomberg Business Week on this Thursday, 0:19:22.000 --> 0:19:25.679 Carol Master along with Bloomberg Quicktake anchor Tim Stenovic and 0:19:26.280 --> 0:19:28.800 top story at this hour. And I guess Tim, I 0:19:28.800 --> 0:19:30.520 think it's gonna be safe to say it's been a 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:32.280 tough story this weekend. It's going to end up being 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:34.480 one of the top stories of this year. I think 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:37.520 that's fair. Right, we're talking bitcoin, right, We're talking bitcoin, 0:19:37.600 --> 0:19:40.520 and we saw cryptocurrency exposed docs soaring today as well. 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:43.159 We talked about that a little bit earlier, Bitcoin topping 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:46.919 twenty three thousand dollars per token having only surpassed the 0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.359 twenty tho dollar bilestone for the first time. That was yesterday. 0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:53.919 Uh so it is really just moving up as bitcoin 0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:57.159 surges to record high. Scott minored our audience knows and well, 0:19:57.240 --> 0:20:00.479 chief investment officer over at guggen Him Investments, believes there 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:03.760 was largest cryptocurrencies fair value still has a long way 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:05.960 to go. He shared this with our colleagues over on 0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:10.280 Bloomberg TV. We made the decision to start allocating towards 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:14.000 bitcoin when bitcoin with a ten thousand UM it's it's 0:20:14.000 --> 0:20:17.600 a little more challenging with the current price closer to 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:22.879 twenty thousand. But having said that, our fundamental work shows 0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:26.560 that bitcoin should be worth about four hundred thousand dollars, 0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:31.480 four hundred thousand dollars, four hundred thousand dollars. My understanding 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:33.880 of Scarlet Food over a Bloomberg TV when she heard 0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:37.120 that was like what she was. We played this on 0:20:37.119 --> 0:20:39.320 on Quick Take this morning because it's just the reaction 0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:42.480 is is really one of you know, whoa four hundred 0:20:42.480 --> 0:20:44.639 thousand dollars? This is something that you know is that 0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:47.080 twenty dollars now? And that's got a lot of people 0:20:47.119 --> 0:20:49.720 scratching their heads exactly. So let's get into what we 0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:51.879 need to know about the rise in bitcoin. Joining us 0:20:51.840 --> 0:20:55.280 as Bloomberg intellige commodity strategist Mike McGlone. He's on the 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:58.160 phone from Connecticut, Mikes, so good to have you here 0:20:58.160 --> 0:21:01.800 with us. So, first of all, um, what's behind the rise? 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:04.200 Is it just a basic supply and demand or what's 0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:06.879 going on here? Hi, Hi Carrol. That's a lot of it. 0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:10.120 Bottom line basic supplying demand is this year we cut 0:21:10.160 --> 0:21:12.480 supply by a half, and the last time we did 0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:16.120 that was two thousand sixteen and two thousand seventeen. Bitcoin 0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:18.480 increased from a thousand and twenty thousand, So I think 0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:22.000 we just broke above that twenty threshold. So what was 0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:24.520 resistance is now probably going to be key support for 0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:26.960 next year. And then you're opened. The man is really 0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:30.399 picking up from institutions. It's become a bit of institutional fomo. 0:21:30.920 --> 0:21:33.880 And the factor is the macro. Look at debt to GDP, 0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:37.000