WEBVTT - Ian Bremmer Talks Influence in Africa

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Wall Street Week.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm David Weston. When it comes to geopolitics, we tend

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<v Speaker 1>to focus on Ukraine or Gaza or Taiwan. And when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to powers rival in the United States, we

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<v Speaker 1>focus most often these days on China, but sometimes overlooked

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<v Speaker 1>our developments in West Africa, where increasingly the rival is

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<v Speaker 1>not China but Russia, with potential economic as well as

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<v Speaker 1>security implications for the United States. To give us a

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<v Speaker 1>status report, we welcome now Ian Bremer. He's founder and

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<v Speaker 1>president of the Eurasia Group and author, most recently of

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<v Speaker 1>The Power of Crisis. So Ian, welcome back. Great to

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<v Speaker 1>have you here. As I said, we tend not to

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<v Speaker 1>focus on places like Nizier and Chad and Burkina, Faso

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<v Speaker 1>and things, but there's a lot of developments going on

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<v Speaker 1>right now there that are not particularly good for the

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<v Speaker 1>US or even US investors.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Well, I mean there are almost no journalists on

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<v Speaker 2>the ground, but that doesn't mean it doesn't matter, and

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<v Speaker 2>this part of the world does matter. It matters in

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<v Speaker 2>particular because there are a lot a lot of that

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<v Speaker 2>are very important for industrial processes, especially as we turn

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<v Speaker 2>to transition energy away from coal and towards you know, batteries,

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<v Speaker 2>and they require a lot of what we get out

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<v Speaker 2>of the ground from these countries. But governance in this

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<v Speaker 2>part of the world is very poor, indeed, explosion of insurgencies,

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<v Speaker 2>Islamic radicalism, and very poor local governance with a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of military coups that have happened in these countries, and

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<v Speaker 2>some of the most authoritarian, most brutal leaders in the

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<v Speaker 2>world want to turn to a country that will provide

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<v Speaker 2>them support for security and not ask any questions at

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<v Speaker 2>all about their human rights abuses and governance on the ground.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know the best country for that at scale,

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<v Speaker 2>that's Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and to speak of that, I mean it's I

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<v Speaker 1>guess a reconstitution of the Wagner Group now called Africa Corps.

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<v Speaker 1>There's moved in. They actually reportedly have some troops on

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<v Speaker 1>the ground that displaced some US and French forces.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right. In many of these countries they have told

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<v Speaker 2>the Americans the French to get out after the military

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<v Speaker 2>has taken over the leadership of the country and they

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<v Speaker 2>want to have the need paramilitaries, they need advanced military

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<v Speaker 2>equipment and they're willing to pay for it, and if

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<v Speaker 2>they don't have hard currency, they can give you a

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<v Speaker 2>percentage or control or an interest in state controlled companies

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<v Speaker 2>on the ground that have access to these minerals, and

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<v Speaker 2>the Russians are more than happy to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>That used to be through the Wagner Group. Of course,

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<v Speaker 2>the Wagner Group quite historically imploded when mister Progosion, who

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<v Speaker 2>ran it and had been a very close and formal

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<v Speaker 2>advisor to Putin, turned against Putin. It has since been

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<v Speaker 2>reconstituted with many of the same people and all the

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<v Speaker 2>same weapons on the ground. This group that is now

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<v Speaker 2>directly reporting to Putin and the Russian military called the

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<v Speaker 2>Africa Court.

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<v Speaker 1>So Ian, what is US policy toward West Africa?

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<v Speaker 2>Now?

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<v Speaker 1>What should it be? Is there a way for us

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<v Speaker 1>to compete with the Russians? And by the way, do

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<v Speaker 1>we want to compete with given the nature of some

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<v Speaker 1>of those hunters that are running some of those countries

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<v Speaker 1>these days?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean it's like saying, what's American policy in

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Iran or bashar Asad, Syria or Kim Jong

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<v Speaker 2>Uns North Korea. These are not countries the Americans can

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<v Speaker 2>have functional diplomatic relations with because they're considered rogue states,

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<v Speaker 2>they're considered illegitimate, they don't have the support of their

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<v Speaker 2>people to be in charge. So again, if these countries

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<v Speaker 2>push the Americans out, I mean, the US historically has

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<v Speaker 2>had a fair amount of interest in what's called the

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<v Speaker 2>Gorilla Belt. And here I mean like gorilla the animals,

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<v Speaker 2>as opposed to gorilla the illicit fighters through Central Africa,

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<v Speaker 2>and the US has a lot of troops on the ground,

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<v Speaker 2>has provided humanitarian aid and is trying to help provide security.

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<v Speaker 2>But when you have countries like Chad, like Nize, like

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<v Speaker 2>Burkina Fasso that are run by military juntas that overthrow

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<v Speaker 2>their legitimate government, the US policy is containment. It's to

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<v Speaker 2>try to ensure that the instability of that country doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>spill over into other countries that the US can work with.

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<v Speaker 2>That's both true in terms of forced migration, it's true

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of radicalism and extremism, and it's also true

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<v Speaker 2>in terms of direct border incursions and invasions. So I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it's not as if the United States is competing with

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<v Speaker 2>Russia for influence over these governments. No, Rather, these are

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<v Speaker 2>governments that the Americans would rather see out of power.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's come back to where you started with the possible

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<v Speaker 1>relocations economically, particularly when it comes to energy transition because

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<v Speaker 1>of some of those raw materials that really exist uranium, certainly, lithium,

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<v Speaker 1>baux sized others. What are the possible rapplications for investors

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<v Speaker 1>if in fact Russia's influence continues to grow in West Africa.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's going to be a greater cost because again,

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<v Speaker 2>these are countries that are going to have resources that

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<v Speaker 2>will be exploited in illicit ways, in legal ways using

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<v Speaker 2>child labor for example. They're not going to be welcomed

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<v Speaker 2>in supply chain by many advanced industrial democracies in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>And even when they are, the Russians are going to

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<v Speaker 2>have a preference to ensure that the supplies are first

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<v Speaker 2>and foremost given to friends of Russia with preferential long

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<v Speaker 2>term contracts, China of course being the country in that

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<v Speaker 2>category that has the greatest need for them. And there

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<v Speaker 2>are a lot of resources here. I mean the Russian

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<v Speaker 2>government has secured direct access to I mean major gold

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<v Speaker 2>reserves in the Central African Republic as well as in Sudan,

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<v Speaker 2>platinum in Zimbabwe, diamonds in Zimbabwe as well as the

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<v Speaker 2>ar uranium as you mentioned in Namibia. Right now, the

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<v Speaker 2>United States still gets uranium from Russia, and Congress is

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<v Speaker 2>trying to stop that. They're trying to actually ensure there's

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<v Speaker 2>money to increase production in the United States and with friends,

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<v Speaker 2>so that if the US is going to start building

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<v Speaker 2>reactors again. You've seen the Bill Gates announcements on your

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<v Speaker 2>own Bloomberg that they don't have to get it from Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>But the more that Russia is on the ground essentially

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<v Speaker 2>the lead supporter of many of these illicit governments, these

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<v Speaker 2>military regimes in Central and Western Africa, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>Russians are going to end up also having control over

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<v Speaker 2>some critical nodes of the minerals that are necessary for

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<v Speaker 2>a transition energy revolution.

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<v Speaker 1>And West Africa has traditionally historically been a zone influence

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<v Speaker 1>for France because they colonized it. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>mister Macrone right now is distracted with a few other

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<v Speaker 1>things closer to home, with this snap election he's called

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<v Speaker 1>less than three weeks way. Now give us a sense

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<v Speaker 1>of what apossible ramifications of this are.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, Macron's own party Center Party lost historically seventeen

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<v Speaker 2>points under the national rally far right of Marine la

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<v Speaker 2>penn and so on the back of that really embarrassing,

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<v Speaker 2>much larger than expected loss and by the way, historic

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<v Speaker 2>over fifty percent of French registered vote has turned out

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<v Speaker 2>to vote in this European parliamentary election. That doesn't sound high,

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<v Speaker 2>but for a European parliamentary election with not much at stake,

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<v Speaker 2>it's by far the highest that France has ever had.

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<v Speaker 2>So huge embarrassment, it felt like he was going to

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<v Speaker 2>get censored by the government over the course by the

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<v Speaker 2>parliament over the course of the fall. It meant that

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<v Speaker 2>his budget wasn't going to get through, he wasn't going

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<v Speaker 2>to be able to continue to be fiscally responsible. So

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<v Speaker 2>he decided to call a snap election, which in France

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<v Speaker 2>means three weeks of campaigning and then they go and vote.

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<v Speaker 2>And the idea for mccron being if he wins, because

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<v Speaker 2>you'll have seventy percent turnout for a parliamentary election as

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<v Speaker 2>opposed to fifty for the European parliamentary elections, that suddenly

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<v Speaker 2>his party will do better. He'll be able to scare

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<v Speaker 2>people away from voting for the far left of the

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<v Speaker 2>far right, but the left wing parties have all come

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<v Speaker 2>together and they are working to not run candidates against

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<v Speaker 2>each other in parliament. So that's a big problem for

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<v Speaker 2>the Center. And the average French citizen doesn't oppose, doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>believe that Le Penn and her party is a threat

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<v Speaker 2>to democracy. Only forty percent say that she is that

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<v Speaker 2>they are compared to eighty percent David twenty years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>So look, anything can happen. But right now these were

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<v Speaker 2>only a week and a half away. These elections look

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<v Speaker 2>very bad for Macron, very dangerous. And if the Penn

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<v Speaker 2>and the National Rally are able to capture government and

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<v Speaker 2>her party takes the premiership, well then you know, anything

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<v Speaker 2>in the European Union that requires agreement of all the

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<v Speaker 2>parliaments she will be opposed to. So France will no

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<v Speaker 2>longer be one of the strongest supporters for example, more

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<v Speaker 2>aid for Ukraine, or greater defense spending for Europe, or

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<v Speaker 2>more fiscal accountability or more coordination on industrial policy. No, Instead,

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<v Speaker 2>one of the largest and founding members of the EU

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<v Speaker 2>will be strongly opposed to EU consolidation and sovereignty super

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<v Speaker 2>national governance. It's a huge risk, especially against the backdrop

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<v Speaker 2>of US elections, which if Trump wins, you'll have a

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<v Speaker 2>president that supports a for exit from the EU and

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<v Speaker 2>a much weaker EU, very different from Biden.

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<v Speaker 1>Just my question and is it too far to go

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<v Speaker 1>expect about the possibility of, as you said, a Frexit,

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<v Speaker 1>not Brexit, but frexit, because as you said, Marie Leapenn

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<v Speaker 1>has been fairly hostile to the European Union.

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<v Speaker 2>She is very hostile, but you know, Brexit went very

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<v Speaker 2>badly for the UK and one of the reasons why

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<v Speaker 2>Marine La Penn is polling so well and her party

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<v Speaker 2>is is because she's backed away from a Frexit instead

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<v Speaker 2>just picked up all of the policies that show euroskepticism.

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<v Speaker 2>So I certainly think that were she to become premier,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think they would agitate for an exit, but

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<v Speaker 2>I think she would be very aligned with Victor Orbon's

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<v Speaker 2>Hungary and she'd be very aligned with a Trump policy

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<v Speaker 2>on Europe, which essentially means that Europe would get weaker,

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<v Speaker 2>not stronger, at a time that a lot more countries,

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<v Speaker 2>including Ukraine, are counting on a stronger Europe for their

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<v Speaker 2>own well being.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's always so helpful to talk with you. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much. That's Ian Brenner of the Eurasia Group,