1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast all the way, and 2 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:06,360 Speaker 1: it is good. 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 2: All right, Here we go, pot We're growing in Joe Spectator. 4 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 3: I'm sitting up to Cats to star. 5 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 2: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 2: go to Wind. That's incredible being bank small banks. 7 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 3: I like to make money. 8 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine. 9 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 2: You want to fall. 10 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 3: And we are under way. 11 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 2: What's going on? Everybody? I am Dane Martinez and welcome 12 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 2: to another edition of the Action Network I Cast. This 13 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,800 Speaker 2: time we are talking about potential breakout candidates for the 14 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two NFL season. And who better to have 15 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 2: with me to discuss this topic than my guy, Matt Friedman. 16 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: He's the director of content over at Fantasy Bros. And 17 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 2: one of our newest members Joe Galan. And here's the thing. Right, 18 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 2: we're in time of year, a lot of fantasy drafts 19 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 2: are happening, a lot of people picking win totals, things 20 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 2: of that nature. And we hear the term breakout candidate 21 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 2: all the time, but honestly, breakout can mean so many 22 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 2: different things relative to what exactly. So before we get 23 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: into talking about breakout candidates that we all have, and 24 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:21,760 Speaker 2: we are going to dig deep on some of them. 25 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 2: I first want to ask you, guys, when you hear 26 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,840 Speaker 2: breakout candidate, what are you actually thinking about? Matt, I'll 27 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 2: start with you. When you hear the term a breakout candidate, 28 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: what does that look like? What does that mean for 29 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two? 30 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 3: I have two thoughts in mind. 31 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 4: So one is a guy who just hasn't done it 32 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 4: at all and is starting to elevate himself into the 33 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:46,240 Speaker 4: tier of relevance, whether it's relevant for fantasy, relevant for 34 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 4: sports betting, like he's good enough now to have props 35 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 4: listed on the week two weeks. So that's the one 36 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 4: tier guy. And then I'd say the other tier is 37 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 4: a guy who is known but who sort of catults 38 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 4: himself from good to eat or in the discussion of 39 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 4: being elite. So those are the two guys that I 40 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 4: think of when I'm trying to think about what does 41 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 4: a breakout mean? 42 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 2: No, it's absolutely fair, right, there's so many different perspectives, 43 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 2: so many ways to look at it. I remember back 44 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 2: in middle school, right, I had to do something called 45 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:21,119 Speaker 2: the physical fitness test. I banged out eight chin ups 46 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 2: right then the next time I banged out nine. This 47 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 2: other kid in my class banged out one chin up. 48 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 2: Then by the end of the semester he did three 49 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 2: and everyone thought that he was a breakout. Meanwhile, I 50 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 2: still had the gun show, if you know what I mean, right, So, 51 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 2: for me, a breakout candidate is kind of more relative 52 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 2: to the team they play on. Not your fantasy team, 53 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 2: but they're NFL team that they play on that they're 54 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 2: gonna be maybe more of an option. I'm looking at 55 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,639 Speaker 2: touch I'm looking at SAP count because if those things 56 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: increase for their actual football team, I think all the 57 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 2: anytime touchdowns and the fantasy production is sure to follow. Bajill, 58 00:02:57,639 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 2: what do you think about when you hear the term 59 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 2: break out candidate. 60 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good question because I'm similar to Matt. 61 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: But at the same time, it's more about projecting where 62 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: players are going to be for any time touchdown odds 63 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 1: starting the season and guys that I can find great 64 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: opportunity for. So the ones that I'm looking at are 65 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 1: like certain players where I can get ahead of it 66 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 1: because a lot of the way that the market adjusts 67 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 1: on anytime touchdown markets, and that's one of my specialties 68 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: is that once they score, the value is pretty much 69 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: gone in the following week. So for myself, the way 70 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 1: my strategy is because I make like over like two 71 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty anytime touchdown bets, and during a regular season, 72 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: I generally like the beat guys that are above the 73 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: plus two hundred range because generally, if you're doing this, 74 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: you're going to kind of probably fall short on profits 75 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: or maybe and you kind of cap your ceiling from 76 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: that standpoint. So I have a different process than most. 77 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: I kind of go buy the odds, you know, what, 78 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: do the odds tell me, track them week to week, 79 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: I compare imply probabilities. Then I look at matchups and 80 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: stats just like everybody else's. So I think I've identified 81 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: a few players that I think we can get ahead 82 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 1: of to get touchdown bets in before the market shifts 83 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 1: against our All. 84 00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 2: Right, Joe, so let's get into it now. What are 85 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 2: one of the guys that you're out there saying that 86 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 2: there is equity right now? I like the fact that 87 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 2: you're not taking an any touchdown of a guy that's 88 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: plus two ten or plus one sixty five. You're looking 89 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 2: at that third wide receiver, that second tight end who 90 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,080 Speaker 2: may only be in on a goal line package anyway, 91 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 2: But if you hit him at seven to one, that 92 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 2: is good money right there. So, Joe, who's someone who 93 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,600 Speaker 2: kind of fits that category that you expect to break 94 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 2: out and be plus ev for you in that anytime 95 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 2: touchdown market this year? 96 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, you will be hearing many Cooper Cup anytime 97 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: touchdown bets for me. I don't really think you need 98 00:04:34,120 --> 00:04:35,720 Speaker 1: an expert to tell you that Cooper Cup is a 99 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: good football player. But the guy that I've actually identified 100 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:40,360 Speaker 1: that I think is going to be really good at 101 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: somebody that we can get great launch value with. Somebody 102 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: that is kind of maybe forgotten just because of where 103 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 1: he's playing. It's Tommy Tremble at tight end with the 104 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers. So entering a second year, there's not really 105 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: a lot of competition on the tight end front in 106 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 1: that offense. Ian Thomas is going to be mainly the 107 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: blocking tight end in that offense. But he has four 108 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 1: touchdowns sixty five career games, one touchdown in the last 109 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: thirty three games. He is not a competition for tight 110 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: end touches from that squad. He scored his only prime 111 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: time touchdown last year after they traded dan Ardold, the 112 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 1: guy that I thought was going to be the breakout 113 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: candidate in this offense, and what he did. This odds 114 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: were plus twelve hundred in that game to score a touchdown, 115 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,840 Speaker 1: and last year going forward, every week, his odds were 116 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 1: tracking around the plus five hundred plus six to fifty range. Also, 117 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 1: the one thing that's really good about Tommy Trumple, specifically, 118 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,359 Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield is probably going to be his starting quarterback, 119 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 1: and Baker favors tight ends for passing touchdowns. In twenty 120 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: twenty one, for example, ten of his seventeen passing touchdowns 121 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 1: were to the tight end position. Thirty six percent of 122 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 1: every one of Mayfield's touchdowns have gone to the tight 123 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: end position. So I'm not saying really that Tremble was 124 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: going to score every week, but I'm going to say 125 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: that he's going to get one in the first three 126 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: weeks at an enormous price, and you won't get that 127 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. And I also just 128 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: wanted to know before I finished that the Browns have 129 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: the ranked bottom five and touchdowns a lot of the 130 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: tight ends last year. Do they play in Week one 131 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,040 Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns Now? 132 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 2: It's interesting, Jill, And obviously, if you're taking someone who's 133 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: going to have that kind of big number and they 134 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 2: do cash right and get into the end zone early 135 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,039 Speaker 2: in the season, and you're just playing with gravy, right, 136 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 2: So if they do get into the end zone in 137 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 2: the month of September, that is a great bet. You know. 138 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 2: You also mentioned that Baker Mayfield will be that quarterback 139 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 2: and Matt you are also looking at one of these 140 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 2: guys that Baker Mayfield will be throwing the ball to, 141 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 2: but this time on the outside of the numbers. 142 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I just want to say, first, I love that 143 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 4: call bye by Jill. One thing that's great about about 144 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 4: Tommy Tremble is he also got some goal line carries 145 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,799 Speaker 4: last year, so like he's got multiple avenues for getting 146 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 4: that touchdown. 147 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:45,040 Speaker 3: So I like that. 148 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 4: I'm also looking at DJ Moore. Think of all the 149 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 4: great receivers in the league right now, we're in what 150 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 4: I would call a wide receiver renaissance. The league has 151 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,719 Speaker 4: never had a collection of talent at the position as 152 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 4: rich as what we have currently. And out of all 153 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 4: those players, you know, Cooper Cup, Davante, Adam Stefan, Diggs, 154 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 4: Mike Evans, and he got some of the younger guys 155 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,839 Speaker 4: justin Jefferson Jamar Chase. Only one receiver has twelve hundred 156 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 4: yards from scrimmage in each of the past three seasons, 157 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 4: and that's DJ Moore, who is toiled in i'd say 158 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 4: relative obscurity in Carolina. But you know, here's the thing, 159 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 4: as Jill mentioned, we got the best quarterback of his 160 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 4: career in Baker Mayfield coming into Carolina, which says a 161 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 4: lot about the quality of the guys who have been 162 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,120 Speaker 4: throwing him the ball to this point. DJ Moore is 163 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 4: still just twenty five years old. He's assending he was 164 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 4: a first rounder, so he's got that, you know, that 165 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 4: draft capital coming with him. He was the first wide 166 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 4: receiver selected in his class, actually, and he's got good 167 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 4: speed and agility for a guy who's two hundred and 168 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 4: ten pounds. He can play outside, he can play in 169 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 4: the slot. 170 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 2: You know. 171 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 4: As wild as it is to say that a guy 172 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 4: with twelve hundred yards three years in a row has 173 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,840 Speaker 4: room to break out even more, I think that's the case. 174 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 4: And this feels like the year it's going to happen. 175 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 4: He has a fifteen hundred yard season in him. I 176 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 4: think this is the year. 177 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 2: So let me ask you, guys, both as you both mentioned, 178 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 2: Carolina pan is out the shoot. Obviously there will potentially 179 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:07,200 Speaker 2: be another different person under center in Baker Mayfield. And 180 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 2: there's also the return of Christian McCaffrey in that offense, right, 181 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 2: And I usually think about touches or scoring potential as 182 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,119 Speaker 2: a pie, right, and Christian McCaffrey is going to eat 183 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: up some portion of that pie. You know, then he 184 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 2: wasn't there last year. Do either of those things concern 185 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 2: you guys about the Panthers you've mentioned, whether it's tremble 186 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 2: oh more thinking about some of the newness in that 187 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 2: offense with Baker, or the fact that CMC is going 188 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 2: to be there and he's going to get a lot 189 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 2: of touches from the goal line as well. Jill, does 190 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,440 Speaker 2: that factor in for you? You were talking a lot 191 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 2: about Baker and what he did with the Browns. Now 192 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:45,520 Speaker 2: he's with a new team and he's got a pretty 193 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 2: nice weapon behind them too. 194 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,599 Speaker 1: I think a factors then, positively, because he's going to 195 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 1: draw an attention away from those positions. You saw that 196 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: offense kind of crumble after Christian McCaffrey got hurt last season, 197 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,920 Speaker 1: where guys were just it was very difficult to get separation, 198 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: and you saw our guys from a touchdown perspective just 199 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: kind of drop off in that offense. So while you're right, yes, 200 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 1: he will demand a little bit more a blank at 201 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: the target share and just touches in general, I personally 202 00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: don't think that's a detriment. I actually think it's a 203 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: positive that he's going to be on the field for 204 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:17,680 Speaker 1: our breakout players. 205 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, when I go to breakout players, I, 206 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 2: like I mentioned at the top of the show, right, 207 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 2: I'm thinking about within the NFL team having an opportunity 208 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 2: to do more, whether that's being on the field more 209 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 2: or getting more of the touches. And one of my 210 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 2: breakout guys really fits that. I'm talking about Alan Lazard 211 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 2: over in the Green Bay Packers. And why because, as 212 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 2: you all know, Davante Adams and his one hundred and 213 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 2: sixty nine targets are now not there. Okay, I know 214 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,079 Speaker 2: this Green Bay offense wants to run the ball a 215 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 2: little bit more with AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones, but 216 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 2: this is still Aaron Rodgers, the two time MVP. If 217 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,360 Speaker 2: you believe that Aaron Rodgers is still going to have 218 00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 2: a good, pass happy offense, I want I believe now 219 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 2: is the number one wide receiver. I know what they 220 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: went out and drafted the kid Watson. I know they 221 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 2: got Sammy Watkins there. Aaron Rodgers likes to build trust 222 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 2: with his wide receivers. We've been talking about that for years. 223 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 2: How some of these young kids he doesn't get into 224 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 2: the fold right away. The one wide receiver on Green 225 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 2: Bay who's been there for a while, who actually has 226 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 2: the trust and belief of Aaron Rodgers is Alan Lazard. 227 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 2: I think there will be a huge uptick in targets 228 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 2: for him. And you are seeing him go right now 229 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 2: around like wide receiver fifty or so. And you know 230 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 2: on its face, if you give me the number one 231 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:39,719 Speaker 2: wide out for the Green Bay Packers, I say that 232 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 2: is a potential for a breakout. But let's find somebody 233 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 2: else here. Jill, you mentioned another tight end that you 234 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 2: wanted to talk about, this time from a team that 235 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 2: may only win three games. But again that doesn't matter 236 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 2: down there in Houston, right, that's. 237 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 1: Right, And before I talk about this guy, I just 238 00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: wanted to let you know Alan Lazard is my guy. 239 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: That guy I finished as the most profitable Packers anytime 240 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: touchdown scorer last year at plus six point five units. 241 00:11:04,559 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 1: So if you had just blindly bet him all fourteen 242 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,560 Speaker 1: games that he played last year, for one unit per game, 243 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: you would have made six point five units of profit 244 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: doing nothing, just betting at blindly. So I'm just letting 245 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 1: you know I'm with you. So this guy from a 246 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: backup standpoint, and I don't even know if I wanted 247 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: to find him as a backup in this offense. And 248 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: it's Brevin Jordan, a tight end with the Houston Texans. 249 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,680 Speaker 1: And the reason why I really like his potential, especially 250 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 1: earlier in the year, is what he was able to 251 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: do with the limited touches that he did. He would 252 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: played nine games last year, but he had three touchdowns 253 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: in those games, six red zone targets, twenty nine overall targets. 254 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: And from a tight end perspective, there's not really much 255 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: competition in this offense either, because the starting tight end 256 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 1: is Farrell Brown, who of course in the off season 257 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: reporting that he's in the best shape of his life 258 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 1: aside any other player in coming into training camp. But 259 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 1: he played six more games than Brevin Jordan last year, 260 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: finished with zero touchdowns and thirty four targets. For me 261 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: outside of cooks. There is no standout pass catchers in 262 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: this offense that are going to chew up targets. Although 263 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 1: I do have a little special place in my heart 264 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: for Nico Collins, I think Brevin Jordan is the guy 265 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:09,319 Speaker 1: that you want to target and you're gonna be able 266 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 1: to get him in the plus five hundred plus six 267 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,719 Speaker 1: hundred brage really to start the season, especially in this 268 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: Houston Texans offense. 269 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,120 Speaker 2: All right, let's stay talking about tight ends. Okay, Matt, 270 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 2: you have a tight end that I think is interesting. 271 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 2: There's been a lot of talk down there in Denver 272 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 2: of all the weapons that Russ Is gonna have to 273 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 2: cook or let's ride as it were, But you're talking 274 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 2: about the tight end there. He had a great relationship 275 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,239 Speaker 2: with Drew Locke. I think they were college like roommates. 276 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,839 Speaker 2: But Albio is still in Denver, and you think he's 277 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 2: gonna get some shine? 278 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 4: Yeah, Albert? Okaway, buonam, I think he's gonna crush this year. 279 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 4: I'm sure I didn't get the last name right, but 280 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 4: just we'll just say Alberto. That's the way to go 281 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:51,040 Speaker 4: with this super dynamic Last year, third round rookie Greg 282 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 4: Dolcic is starting to get some training camp. Ye, but 283 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 4: I'm not really buying it. Daytwo tight ends almost never 284 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 4: do anything as rookies. Okuwey Buonam last year, out of 285 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,120 Speaker 4: all the time who had at least forty targets, he 286 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,199 Speaker 4: was number seven with two yards per out in number 287 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 4: nine with four point two routes per target. Like, the 288 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 4: guy is just a playmaker, and now he gets the 289 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 4: best quarterback of his career in Russell Wilson. He's a 290 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 4: freak athlete who is another year removed from his ACL injury, 291 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 4: which I think is something that people aren't really taking 292 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 4: into account. His rookie year ended with the ACL injury, 293 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 4: and I don't think he was as athletic last year 294 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 4: as he had been previously. Another year removed from that. 295 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,560 Speaker 4: I think we're going to see him in his full 296 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 4: freak athleticness and he's going to have more opportunities to 297 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:36,439 Speaker 4: make plays this year now that Titan Noah Fant is gone. 298 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 4: Wide receiver Tim Patrick is out for the year. And 299 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 4: when he was coming out of college, the guy Compton 300 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:44,599 Speaker 4: was Jimmy Graham, you know, like the younger version of 301 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 4: Jimmy Graham. 302 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:47,080 Speaker 3: I think that's what we're going to see this season. 303 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 2: And while we're talking tight end, let me just give 304 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 2: a little bit love to a tight end in Chicago, 305 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 2: Kole Kmet. I think when you're looking at tight end, 306 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 2: and now I'm talking from the fantasy side, right, there's 307 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 2: that top tier we all know the names, and then 308 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 2: after that it's kind of a crapshoot. And most people 309 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 2: think that tight end outside of the top tier is 310 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 2: touchdown dependent. But I believe Cole Met may actually get 311 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 2: enough targets and enough receptions to bolster your squad even 312 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 2: without the touchdowns. Remember I'm big about vacated targets and 313 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 2: Alan Robinson not being there is a good six targets game. 314 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 2: I know there's Darnell Mooney as the number one, but 315 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 2: I expect this team in year two under Justin Fields 316 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 2: to still be down in games and him to still 317 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 2: be leveraging his security blanket at the tight end position. 318 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 2: I think Cole Komet could be a week in, week out, 319 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 2: four or five or six reception a week kind of 320 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 2: guy putting himself into the second tier of tight ends. 321 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 2: Now one tight end everybody is expecting a huge breakout 322 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 2: from this year in his second season is the tight 323 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 2: end in Atlanta, Kyle Pitts. But Matt, you think there's 324 00:14:56,520 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 2: another young pass catcher in Atlanta who qualifies for our 325 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 2: definition here of a breakout candidate. 326 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking at Drake London. 327 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 4: He's precisely the kind of rooky wide receiver that I 328 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 4: gravitate towards. He's he's big, six four to two hundred 329 00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 4: nineteen pounds. 330 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 3: He's young. 331 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 4: He turned twenty one years old in July, I mean, 332 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 4: preternaturally young. And he's entering the NFL as a junior. 333 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 4: You know, so in college only three years he had 334 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 4: elite draft capital, went number eight overall, incredibly strong college production, 335 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 4: had over a thousand yards seven touchdowns receiving in eight 336 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 4: games in his final season. I mean, you just kind 337 00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 4: of like put all that stuff together and you compare 338 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 4: him to other guys who were similar as prospects. It's 339 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 4: like Larry Fitzgerald, like Mike Evans, like that kind of 340 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 4: body type and playing ability. If I'm a year or 341 00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 4: two early in predicting the breakout, that that's fine. 342 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 3: It's gonna happen at some point. It's just a matter 343 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 3: of when. 344 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 4: And I'm just gonna start predicting it as soon as 345 00:15:58,160 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 4: he's in the NFL. 346 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 2: OH officially have it on tape right now, Freeman, don't 347 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 2: worry about it. Breakout coming early for the rookie out 348 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 2: of USC Drake London. Jill, Let's go back to you, 349 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 2: because you have some under the radar wide receivers that 350 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 2: you think could actually be profitable when it comes to 351 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 2: the anytime touchdown market. I know one of them is 352 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 2: someone you think could get some shine in Dallas as 353 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 2: a wide receiver three, which is a really important role 354 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 2: in that offense. 355 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:28,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think i'd have to have a proper 356 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: disclaimer here to let people know that I am a 357 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: Cowboys fan, but not the unsufferable ones, just the sufferable ones, 358 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: the ones who are looking at from a glass half 359 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: empty standpoint. So I just want to put that out 360 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:39,720 Speaker 1: there before I tell you who it is going to be, 361 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:42,840 Speaker 1: and it's going to be Jaylen Tolber. Wide receiver depth 362 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: from a Cowboys perspective is just a bit iffy, especially 363 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,280 Speaker 1: compared to last season. Like we know, Seedee Lamb is 364 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: going to get his targets, but Michael Gallup is not 365 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 1: going to be all the way back to start the season. 366 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:55,280 Speaker 1: He might he's going to miss week one. He'll probably 367 00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: miss maybe even week two, depending on how that knee 368 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: is recovery. But wide receiver three in this offense is 369 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: a darling for any time touchdown profits in recent years, 370 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: and just the most recently Cedric Wilson, who left to 371 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: go to Miami in the off season, which kind of 372 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: broke my heart. But he let the Cowboys at any 373 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 1: time touchdown profits last season with six point five units 374 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: on six touchdowns in sixteen games, and most of that 375 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: was done after Michael Gallup got hurt in Week seventeen. 376 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,960 Speaker 1: He just went nuts in that seventeen game and Week eighteen, 377 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 1: and a ton of guys, you know, they're gonna get 378 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 1: opportunity like a TJ. Vash or like a Noah Brown. 379 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 1: But just according to training camp reports and just reading, 380 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 1: you know, quotes from like the offensive coordinator Kelli Moore, 381 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 1: they're saying that right now that Tolward has the most 382 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 1: versatility out of all those wide receivers and that he's 383 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: going to be getting a lot of early opportunities. So 384 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: I think toward he'll be he'll be wide receiver through 385 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 1: early in this season, probably around the plus three hundred range. 386 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 1: Just because of the pecking order for offensive players and 387 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,120 Speaker 1: that offense of who would probably be getting more touchdowns 388 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,359 Speaker 1: in that span. But for me, anytime touchdown odds that 389 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 1: looking at over plus three hundred for j Tolbert, that 390 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: is somebody that I'm going to betting a lot in 391 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 1: the first month of the season. 392 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 2: Andy Jill. Then you also have another guy, this time 393 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 2: in Arizona who's almost a similar kind of role. And 394 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 2: I'd love to ask you how much does it matter 395 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 2: in Arizona when you have DeAndre Hopkins on the shelf, 396 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 2: you have Hollywood kind of in and out as well. 397 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,280 Speaker 2: You got a wide receiver for the Cardinals that you 398 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 2: think could be a play in this market as well. 399 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm a little bit skeptic of the impact 400 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: of Hollywood Brown in that offense, along with whether or 401 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 1: not AJ Green is actually still AJ Green. I think 402 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: a lot of the time when people bet his props 403 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: are still thinking of Bengals AJ Green and that is 404 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: not the case, especially last year. So listen to this. 405 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: I'm taking Antoine Wesley. I think he's going to have 406 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 1: a nice little breakout this year because if you look 407 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: when DeAndre Hopkins got hurt last year in Week nine. 408 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 1: For Week nine on he played nearly seventy percent of 409 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,479 Speaker 1: the snaps in this offense. He's going to get more 410 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: reps early with Hopkins until at least week seven. He 411 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 1: caught three touchdowns on nine targets in week fifteen Week 412 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 1: six team when Hopkins was out, his touchdown odds were 413 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: probably around plus five fifty plus three fifty like in 414 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: those range for those two games. And as I was 415 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,920 Speaker 1: kind of saying about AJ Green, I just think he's 416 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 1: washed up man like, and it really saddens me to say, 417 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: because AJ Green has won me some leagues back in 418 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: his prime. But pretty much from Week nine onward, after 419 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 1: de Andre Hopkins got hurt, that should have been AJ 420 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: Green's time to shine. He didn't score a touchdown for 421 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: the rest of the year. So I'm not going to 422 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: take AJ Green or think that AJ Green is the 423 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,040 Speaker 1: guy that is going to be So I think Antoine 424 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: Wesley as long as so. Some recent injury news just 425 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: popped up where he might potentially need surgery. They're saying 426 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 1: they're gonna let it rest to see if he'll need it. 427 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: If he doesn't need surgery, he is going to be 428 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: the guy that I'm targeting because Kyler Murray, I mean 429 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: he was seven and pass attempts per game last year 430 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 1: top five an accuracy, So you can really load up 431 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: on those wide receivers in those past catching options that 432 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,640 Speaker 1: are further down the depth chart. I mean really if 433 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: you just really want another breakout. Kyler Murray has seven 434 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 1: touchdowns in the last two seasons from Week one to 435 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 1: Week three in a six game total. So Kyler Murray 436 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: is another guy he probably want to if you're betting 437 00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: touchdowns early in the season before he eventually gets hurted. 438 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 2: Fair enough, those Arizona Cardinals in Week one will be 439 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 2: taking on the Kansas City Chiefs, and on that Chiefs 440 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 2: roster is a guy that I think people need to 441 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 2: look out for a breakout. Again from a fantasy side, 442 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 2: looking at a quality RB two if you're going zero 443 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,120 Speaker 2: running back strategy, I am very interested this year in 444 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 2: Clyde Edwards Hilaire. Now, Jill may not get love with 445 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:27,960 Speaker 2: him on the anytime touchdown market because I think in 446 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 2: his rookie year he gets to the end zone like 447 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,880 Speaker 2: once and it was flabbergasting people. But again, I look 448 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 2: at how the Chiefs expect to be different this year, 449 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 2: and that is without, of course Tyreek Hill. You got 450 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 2: Juju and others in there, but what was Tyreek Hill value? 451 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 2: Also near the goal line, we had end rounds, we 452 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 2: had sprunt out options, and I think that Clyde Edwards Hilaire, 453 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 2: who is a weapon out of the backfield is now 454 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 2: in his third year, will have that kind of familiarity. 455 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 2: And as more and more teams try to play thee 456 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 2: with these two high safeties, We've seen Tennessee do it, 457 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,719 Speaker 2: We've seen Buffalo do it, We've seen Cincinnati do it. 458 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,200 Speaker 2: When you just put the safeties back there, will Mahomes 459 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 2: kind of take his medicine and understand that the run 460 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 2: game could be his best friend. I think that will 461 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 2: be part of the evolution of the Chiefs offense this year, 462 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 2: and I think Clyde Edwards Hilaire will be a big 463 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 2: part of it. For any fresh Prince fans, that's where 464 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,760 Speaker 2: we're going your Mahomes to Laire. I think Ceh will 465 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 2: be very, very valuable as balance for that offense. And 466 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 2: if he's your RB two, I will take it right now. 467 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 2: But Matt, there may be no single player in the 468 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 2: NFL this year with more I don't know if expectation 469 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:50,080 Speaker 2: is the right word, but potentially excitement. Wonder about what 470 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 2: it will look like, including all the people that have 471 00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 2: MVP tickets on this man. I'm talking about the newly 472 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 2: anointed head of the San Francisco for offense. It will 473 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 2: not be Jimmy Garoppolo. This is now Trey Lance's team. Matt, 474 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 2: what do you think it's going to look like with 475 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 2: Lance under center? 476 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm loving it. I'm one of those people who 477 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 3: has that MVP tech VP tickets. 478 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 2: I hear more of those than you know, Mahomes, Brady, 479 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 2: everybody combined. So why are you wanted? And I think 480 00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 2: of something like forty fifty to one. 481 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, let's just run through the litany, right. 482 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,880 Speaker 4: Lance has the elite draft capital, taking number three overall 483 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 4: last year. He has the high rushing floor in ten 484 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 4: quarters of action last year he had one hundred and 485 00:22:34,720 --> 00:22:37,240 Speaker 4: sixty one yards on thirty one carries. He's got that 486 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 4: really strong arm, obviously stronger than Jimmy Garoppolo. He has 487 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 4: one of the best offensive play callers in the NFL 488 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 4: with Kyle Shanahan, who made Garoppolo look great over the 489 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,400 Speaker 4: past five years. Garoppolo is number five in the league 490 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 4: and composite expected points added in completion percentage over expectation. 491 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 4: That's a very predictive statistic, and he was number five 492 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 4: behind Patrick Mahomes, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers. 493 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 4: Like it's a really good list. We'll say Jimmy Garoppolo 494 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 4: probably doesn't belong on that list, but Kyle Shanahan helped 495 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 4: him get there. Imagine what Shanahan could maybe do with 496 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 4: a guy who maybe he's a better quarterback, right Shanahan 497 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 4: could facilitate that for Garoppolo. He could make Lance look 498 00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 4: like Steve McNair. Like, that's the comp that I have 499 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,120 Speaker 4: for Lance. A guy with a big arm and running ability, 500 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,439 Speaker 4: taken high in the draft from a small school, a 501 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,919 Speaker 4: guy who's raw and needs some time on the bench 502 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 4: before starting. He had that time on the bench last year, 503 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,439 Speaker 4: and I think this is the year in which he 504 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 4: has that total MVP upside. And it helps that he 505 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 4: has the playmakers around him. Deebo, Samuel Brandon I George Kittle. 506 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 4: Those are three of the best after the catch receivers 507 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 4: in the league. If Shanahan can scheme easy completions for Lance, 508 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 4: those guys could really juice his overall numbers and help 509 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 4: him break out in a big way. 510 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 3: I think it's the MVP case. I love it all. 511 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,920 Speaker 2: Right, fair enough, listen. I've got him on some Dynasty 512 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 2: Fantasy rosters, so I hope that it does go that way. 513 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 2: And you know, you're absolutely right. You talk about guys 514 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 2: like Deebo, guys like George Kittle. You get the ball 515 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 2: in their hands in space and they can make your 516 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 2: stats look real good. And you know who can get 517 00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 2: them the ball in space, not only Trey Lance, but 518 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 2: the scheme of Shanahan will get guys running wide open 519 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,439 Speaker 2: if Trey Lance can hit them. But Matt, you know 520 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 2: what's interesting. You mentioned in your kind of talking up 521 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 2: of Trey Lance his draft position when he was a 522 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 2: rookie and the faith you have in the coach that 523 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 2: he's working with right to develop him. And those are 524 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,120 Speaker 2: two of the reasons why quarterback I think is going 525 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 2: to break out in the AFC South is my guy 526 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 2: Sunshine Trevor Lawrence. I'm gonna say some of the same 527 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 2: exact things, Matt that you just said. Right the draft 528 00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 2: capital is there. Lance was number three, Lawrence was number one. 529 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 2: People thought that this was like the most obvious blue 530 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 2: chip prospects since Andrew Luck or John Elway. Now what 531 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 2: happened last year, well, we probably don't want to talk 532 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 2: about what happened last year. But when you say what 533 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 2: Shanahan and his scheme and coaching can do for Lan, 534 00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,440 Speaker 2: I think Peterson down there in Jacksonville can do similar 535 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 2: things for Trevor Lawrence develop him. And they spent a 536 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,359 Speaker 2: ton of money in the offseason. Whether you like the 537 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 2: deal Christian Kirk got or not, he is there, Marvin 538 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 2: Jones is there, and so is his boy etn from Clemson. 539 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,000 Speaker 2: I think they're actually building around Trevor. And this is 540 00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 2: a guy in Peterson who had Nick Foles go twenty 541 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,840 Speaker 2: four touchdowns and two interceptions, So I think he can 542 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 2: do a little bit more with Trevor Lawrence as well. 543 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 2: A lot of second year quarterbacks could be expected to 544 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 2: take the dump Trevor Lawrence and of course Trey Lance 545 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 2: among them. Let me ask you guys one more question 546 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 2: before we get out of here, and I'll start with Yujue. 547 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:46,320 Speaker 2: We talked about defining a breakout at the top of 548 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 2: the show, right, so let's revisit this. It's Halloween. You 549 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:54,280 Speaker 2: know it's week nine and those guys haven't really broken 550 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,960 Speaker 2: out just yet, right, do you ride with them or 551 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 2: are you just onto the next breakout candidate? 552 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 3: Like? 553 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 2: How long do you stay with someone as your guy? 554 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 2: There's some guys that I still can't quit from three 555 00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 2: years ago. 556 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it goes case by case basis, but 557 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 1: I usually give it about four to six games. So 558 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 1: by week six, if I'm not seeing kind of the 559 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: projected breakout that I am expecting from a touchdown perspective, 560 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 1: then I don't want to call them a lost cause 561 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: I would just say I need to see it first 562 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: and then then we'll go back to it and revisit it. 563 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,760 Speaker 1: But like Trevor Lawrence, for example, last year, somebody that 564 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: I was very bullish on from an any time touchdown perspective, 565 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,639 Speaker 1: and he had the numbers to support why I was 566 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 1: so into it, but the offense was broken. There was 567 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 1: no real way in the offensive line as well, So 568 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: like he was like fifth in red zone carries for 569 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: all quarterbacks but only scored twice last year, and that, 570 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 1: to me, that doesn't compute. And that's usually because there's 571 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 1: an offensive line issue. There's an offensive scheme issue, But 572 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 1: I think that's going to be changed now with the 573 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,400 Speaker 1: way that you were just explaining, like Doug Peterson coming 574 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 1: in a revamped offensive line. Those are the guys that 575 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 1: I kind of want to identify as guys that are 576 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,600 Speaker 1: trending upwards. So I think that was probably the best 577 00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 1: definition of it. Is that I'd say, by week far 578 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,840 Speaker 1: to week six is when I decided to pull the 579 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:06,399 Speaker 1: shoot or not. 580 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:08,520 Speaker 2: What about you, Matt, I like the way he said 581 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,479 Speaker 2: I pulled a shooter or not, Like, are you jumping 582 00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 2: ship at all on some of these guys, whether it's 583 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,120 Speaker 2: in the betting world, whether it's in the fantasy world. 584 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 2: You know, we take these stands on these guys over 585 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 2: the course of you know, two three months over the summer. 586 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 2: Then all of a sudden, it's week three and I'm 587 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 2: offering them, you know, for a fourth round draft pick 588 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 2: next year. How long do you wait it out before 589 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,240 Speaker 2: you jump ship on one of your breakout guys? 590 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, it depends on a number of factors and the 591 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,880 Speaker 4: context in which I'm thinking of the breakout. So say 592 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 4: someone like Trey Lance, he could be an absolutely horrible 593 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 4: real life quarterback, which would mean that I would just 594 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 4: you know, burn my ticket for the eighty one MVP. 595 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,280 Speaker 4: He could still be a really good fantasy quarterback within 596 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:52,760 Speaker 4: that context. But you know, maybe from the sports betting side, obviously, 597 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 4: not only is the MVP ticket dead, maybe I start 598 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 4: betting against him each week, or you know, betting against 599 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,240 Speaker 4: the forty nine ers, just because it's clear that even 600 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 4: though Trey Lance is putting up fantasy points, he's not 601 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 4: a good real life quarterback and teams are just able 602 00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,120 Speaker 4: to get the cover against him. Some of it would 603 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 4: also be dependent on usage, you know, like the underlying 604 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,639 Speaker 4: statistics that you mentioned, Like is the guy playing more apps? 605 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 4: Is he getting more targets? So let's say DJ Moore 606 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 4: is actually having not a great season, okay season, but 607 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 4: he's getting a lot of targets coming his way. He's 608 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 4: getting a lot of air yards and they're just not connecting. 609 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 4: If that underlying usage is still there, then I would 610 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 4: probably remain bullish and I'd actually maybe want to buy 611 00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,639 Speaker 4: because the underlying statistics are still good. 612 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 2: All right, Well, there you have it, guys, This is 613 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast. Got to breakout players for the 614 00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two season from my guys, Matthew Friedman, the 615 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,240 Speaker 2: director of Content over at Fantasy Pros, and our newest acquisition, 616 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 2: Jill Galan. I am merely the spitting statistician Dane Martinez. 617 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel with the 618 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 2: Action Network download the Action Network app, unless, of course, 619 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 2: you are allergic to money. We'll catch you next time 620 00:28:58,760 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 2: here on the Action Network. 621 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:13,320 Speaker 4: Drading stud storing, UGAN strading to strading