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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out.

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Speaker 1: We're saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to Wayne. That's incredible being bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 4: like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by bet MGM, the King of sports books. Your

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Speaker 1: host Brendan Glasheen today NFL Week eight best Bets, joining

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Speaker 1: us our usual crew of Brandon Anderson and Luke Swayin

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Speaker 1: aka Vegas Refund in the Action Today. Our third rotating

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Speaker 1: analyst is Anthony Dbundo. He has shed all of his

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Speaker 1: Phillies tears and he is aty two talk some football

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Speaker 1: with us for the Week eight best bets. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: before we get to those best bets, the NBA season

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Speaker 1: has officially tipped off. If you like betting the NBA,

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Speaker 1: be sure to check out Buckets, Action Networks Basketball Betting podcast,

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Speaker 1: with new episodes every single weekday this NBA season. Buckets

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Speaker 1: is available wherever you like to listen. You can also

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Speaker 1: find video versions of Buckets, this show and many other

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Speaker 1: shows from the Action Network YouTube channel once you hit subscribe. Also,

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Speaker 1: you can find us there, give us a like it

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Speaker 1: helps be appreciate it and a five star rating and

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Speaker 1: review in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. Okay,

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Speaker 1: let's dive in. We've got a lot to get to.

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Speaker 1: We've got three best bets from each of the guys,

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Speaker 1: and then we've got Brandon's look ahead pick as well.

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Speaker 1: We went five and four last week. Some help on

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Speaker 1: Sunday night thanks to the Eagles. I think Grant gave

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Speaker 1: out Jalen Hurts passing yards that delivered thanks to that

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Speaker 1: strike to aj Brown. Brandon your first one. We're going

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Speaker 1: all the way tonight this week. Go ahead.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, let's get it right to the end of the

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Speaker 5: week and start with the winner. Let's do Detroit Lions

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Speaker 5: minus eight against the Raiders. Hello Detroit. You one, look, man,

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Speaker 5: the Raiders have three wins. I have no idea how

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Speaker 5: I guess because they won by one, four and four

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Speaker 5: over the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots. So I guess that's how.

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Speaker 5: This is not a good football team. Like this is

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Speaker 5: a really good team and a really bad team, and

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Speaker 5: the really good teams playing at home angry after getting

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Speaker 5: demolished last week. I know it's a high line. I

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Speaker 5: don't do a lot of high lines, but we did

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Speaker 5: it last week. It hit well for us SO Raiders.

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Speaker 5: Besides those three wins, they lost by twenty eight to Buffalo.

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Speaker 5: That's fine, you can lose to Buffalo by twenty eight.

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Speaker 5: And then last week they played the Chicago Bears and

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Speaker 5: lost thirty to twelve. The entire Bears plan was just, Hey,

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Speaker 5: that guy at Max Crosby, let's do plays the other

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Speaker 5: way away from him, and the Bears just did anything

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Speaker 5: they wanted to.

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Speaker 2: That's it.

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Speaker 5: That was the entire plan was just stay away from

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Speaker 5: Max Crosby. Detroit is going to notice that and be

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Speaker 5: just fine. I think the injury report on Detroit is

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Speaker 5: maybe buying us a little bit of value on the spread.

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Speaker 5: I'm not too worried about guys missing, especially because we

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Speaker 5: don't know if Jimmy Garoppolo is even playing yet, and

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Speaker 5: this one, if he doesn't, it looks like Aidan O'Connell

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Speaker 5: will get the start, not Hoyer. So now we get

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Speaker 5: a rookie carter Road Monday night football in Detroit. If

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Speaker 5: you've been watching this season, like on red zone. Lions

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Speaker 5: fans are showing up in drives in all the road stadiums,

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Speaker 5: so a whole Monday night game. I think this is

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Speaker 5: only the second home Monday night game for Detroit since

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Speaker 5: twenty fourteen or something like that. Like they're gonna be allowed,

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Speaker 5: it's gonna be a good crowd there By DVA Lions

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Speaker 5: are top ten run offense, pass offense, run defense, pass defense.

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Speaker 5: Everything raided our bottom five and three of those. So look,

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Speaker 5: I don't really need to tell you that the Lions

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Speaker 5: are way better than the Raiders. But the Lions are

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Speaker 5: way better than the Raiders. They're better at home, They're

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Speaker 5: elite on offense on first down, So I think they're

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Speaker 5: just gonna kind of hit the easy button all night

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Speaker 5: with Ben Johnson's offense. Last week they got killed. Everyone

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Speaker 5: gets a bad day, right, they said a bad day?

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Speaker 5: Baltimore's good? Do you trade it? Won fourteen or four

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Speaker 5: straight games by fourteen or more before that. I think

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Speaker 5: we get another one here. Lines by million. I'll probably

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Speaker 5: be looking at alternate lines to see if we can

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Speaker 5: get a big blowout here. I do expect this line

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Speaker 5: to rise. Don't wait to play it right. Eighth there's

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Speaker 5: some eight and a halfs in the market. This is

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Speaker 5: gonna be an everyone's teaser to end the weekend. So

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Speaker 5: it's gonna get to at least nine to nine and

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Speaker 5: a half for teaser protection, maybe beyond that. So you

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Speaker 5: want to grab it now, give me the lines.

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Speaker 1: Mind stat Lions one of six teams this week that

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Speaker 1: are favored by more than a touchdown. And this is

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Speaker 1: just I mean, the spot speaks for itself. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: they got Lamar last week and really a chance to

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Speaker 1: get the train back on the tracks. This is where

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Speaker 1: it gets interesting because there's gonna be some back and

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Speaker 1: forth here, Luke, your first best bet please.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to go with the Panthers plus three at

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Speaker 3: home hosting the Texans, which if you looked at this

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Speaker 3: line before the season, it was Panthers minus three and

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Speaker 3: now we're at plus three and we have an O.

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Speaker 2: To six team.

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Speaker 3: It's tough to get behind these, like an O six

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Speaker 3: team in general, but historically six winless teams coming off

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Speaker 3: bie weeks, you're hitting out about a sixty four percent

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Speaker 3: against the spread, which it's actually the reverse without the

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Speaker 3: bye week, which winless teams a week eight are hitting

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Speaker 3: out like forty percent when you factor in that buy,

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Speaker 3: it just skyrockets. And this is the Panthers team that

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Speaker 3: it was the line that I was surprised when I

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Speaker 3: saw it, and I just can't get to plus three.

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Speaker 3: You have this Panthers team who was on the buy

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Speaker 3: and they changed offensive coordinators so they went to from

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Speaker 3: Frank Reich to Tom Brown, which there's really no film

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Speaker 3: on Tom Brown, like in terms of like if he's

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Speaker 3: good or not, which could be an advantage where the

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Speaker 3: Texans just have no film on him. But he is

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Speaker 3: a mcfay guy, which is a positive. And Bryce is

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Speaker 3: just fantastic against his own He's top ten and EPA

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Speaker 3: this year against the zone, which the Texans play a

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Speaker 3: lot of his own. And this Texans defense, it's better

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Speaker 3: than last year, but I think it might be.

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Speaker 2: A little bit overrated.

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Speaker 3: They gave up some points against the Panthers and not

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Speaker 3: the Panthers, the Saints and the Cults, which aren't fantastic offenses,

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Speaker 3: and the Panthers definitely are capable. It's just at plus three.

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Speaker 3: The Texans are kind of like the public's darling so

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Speaker 3: far because they just keep covering and keep covering, and

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Speaker 3: I think I've got I've gotten multiple texts where like

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Speaker 3: the Texans are my favorite team, like because they just

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Speaker 3: are winning everyone money, Like my brothers just like auto

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Speaker 3: bet into Texans every week and this is just the week.

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Speaker 3: I think it comes back down to earth where the

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Speaker 3: Panthers are gonna get their first win.

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Speaker 2: So Panthers plus.

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Speaker 1: Three, Okay, Yeah, read on Brown. Sean McVay very speaks

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Speaker 1: very highly of Tom Brown as an offensive mind. Possibility

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Speaker 1: of less snow huddle, which Frank Reich ran a lot

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Speaker 1: of the past couple of weeks, more pre snap motion,

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Speaker 1: a fewer running plays allow Bryce Young to sling the

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Speaker 1: pig skin d Bundo. I think you're going in the

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Speaker 1: same direction as Luke, And then I know Brandon's got

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Speaker 1: some thoughts.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is a good spot, and I

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Speaker 4: generally agreed with Brandon. I think have bet the Texans

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Speaker 4: twice on this show in past weeks, but I think

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Speaker 4: this is a good time to go against them and

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Speaker 4: come back on Carolina. The pass rush for the Panthers

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Speaker 4: has actually been pretty good. They ranked tenth in pass

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Speaker 4: rush win rate and they've gotten two opposing quarterbacks. The

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Speaker 4: problem is they've fallen behind so much because their run

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Speaker 4: defense is so bad and they've started slowly in a

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Speaker 4: lot of games that they've had to play their way

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Speaker 4: back into games and not been able to use their

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Speaker 4: pass rush at all. So that's been a problem for them.

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Speaker 4: But this Houston offense is not particularly good against the run.

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Speaker 4: They're twenty ninth in offensive rush success rate, and the

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Speaker 4: Carolina offense actually has a higher success rate than Houston,

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Speaker 4: and on early downs they've been better than Houston. So

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Speaker 4: I think that this you know, Houston team, they've been scrappy,

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Speaker 4: They've fought their way into a lot of games. They've

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Speaker 4: played a bunch of you know, solid opponents and kind

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Speaker 4: of overperformed expectations against them like that Jags win is

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Speaker 4: aging really well. I like a lot of what Tamiko

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Speaker 4: Ryans has done with the team, But just net success

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Speaker 4: rate alone, these two teams are about even over the

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Speaker 4: course of the season, and I would argue that the

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Speaker 4: Carolina has played a much tougher schedule all in all,

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Speaker 4: like Houston played Atlanta, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Baltimore.

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Speaker 4: You know, that's probably two playoff teams, maybe three, just

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Speaker 4: because of the NFC South if you compare that to

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Speaker 4: what Carolina has played, Like, I know, their division's really bad,

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Speaker 4: but this Carolina team, you know, played at Detroit, at Miami,

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Speaker 4: at Seattle and look lost all those games, but it

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Speaker 4: certainly is much more difficult Situationally, they've played four or

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Speaker 4: six on the road. Now they come home off the buy.

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Speaker 4: Like Luke mentioned, you know, they the team winless. Teams

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Speaker 4: off the buy tend to cover more often than not,

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Speaker 4: teams that have failed to cover all season the ultimate floor.

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Speaker 4: Nobody wants to bet them, right, because there's people that

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Speaker 4: definitely took them as a dog against Carolina, against Detroit

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Speaker 4: and against Miami the last two weeks and lost, and

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Speaker 4: now really nobody wants to back them. And I expect

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Speaker 4: a lot of Houston love here that I just don't

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Speaker 4: really agree with as road chalk now, you know, which

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Speaker 4: you would have laughed at if you said that Houston

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Speaker 4: was going to be laying points to anybody before the

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Speaker 4: season except maybe Arizona on the road. So I think

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Speaker 4: it's a good you know, sell high by low on

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Speaker 4: the Panthers. And there's actually some three and a halfs

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Speaker 4: popping now too, which is the all important three and

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Speaker 4: a half hook and.

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Speaker 1: Brandon, you gave out Texans minus three at Carolina on

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Speaker 1: the look ahead spot last week, and you got it

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Speaker 1: at three. That's the good news. It's three and a

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Speaker 1: half now and a lot of places. As Dubundo said,

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Speaker 1: what is your response to these two?

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Speaker 5: I cannot believe you guys have the audacity to come

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Speaker 5: in here on Texans Island and blast the name of

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Speaker 5: Texans Island. Now, look, I think I get this. The

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Speaker 5: case for Carolina come off the bye week, Thomas Brown.

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Speaker 5: I've been excited about him as an assistant coach for

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Speaker 5: a while now, so I like them giving the reins

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Speaker 5: over to him. I fear a little bit for you

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Speaker 5: get your first time ever. There's no tape on him

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Speaker 5: because he's never called plays before. Now you got call

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Speaker 5: plays your first time against the Dimico Ryans defense. Like

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Speaker 5: that's not a chore I'd love to have in my

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Speaker 5: first game calling the plays. So I can go both ways.

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Speaker 5: You know, you get to surprise the defense that way,

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Speaker 5: you can't scout against it. But I think Demiko will

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Speaker 5: have some surprises too. Carolina off the bye, You're right,

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Speaker 5: but Houston's off the bye too, So I think the

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Speaker 5: way we have to give credit to Carolina correctly for

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Speaker 5: how will they be better now and how will Bryce

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Speaker 5: young have settled in or whatever, like, well, Houston's been

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Speaker 5: good already and now they can get better too. They

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Speaker 5: can self scout and say, okay, what else can Stroud do?

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Speaker 5: And I think to the health report is what really

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Speaker 5: would would sway me away from being on Carolina's side.

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Speaker 5: Carolina's defense missing like half of their guys. Where Houston

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Speaker 5: finally after as bad as things started, is getting their

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Speaker 5: line healthy and the secondary healthy. All of that said,

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Speaker 5: I've took a minus three on the look Ahead precisely

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Speaker 5: because I knew I would not want minus three and

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Speaker 5: a half where I thought it would get to eventually.

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Speaker 5: So I'm gonna give the guys three and a half,

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Speaker 5: and I'm just gonna say, please God, don't let the

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Speaker 5: Texans win by exactly three, or we're somehow gonna push

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Speaker 5: my bet and lose both the other bets and really

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Speaker 5: screw up the podcast record here.

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Speaker 4: So are we grading this at three and a half

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Speaker 4: or three? Brendan Loo's the official rule on that, because

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Speaker 4: I would like the three and a half and there

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Speaker 4: are three and a half's painted across the board.

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Speaker 1: As we sit here, I get to decide, well, as

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Speaker 1: I mean, the way we've always done this as we record,

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Speaker 1: what the line is is what the line is. You

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Speaker 1: get three and a half, take it and run.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna take it. We will, we will take that.

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Speaker 4: I will say Houston out. You know, they lose.

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Speaker 1: So honored that you asked me to make that decision

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Speaker 1: like that. That's my best moment on this podcast and

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Speaker 1: the year and a half have done this, So thank you.

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Speaker 4: There's no one else on the show that can be

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Speaker 4: a neutral arbiter, that's true.

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Speaker 1: Well our audio producer David could be too. But they you,

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Speaker 1: we'll consult each other, they make a decision, but I

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Speaker 1: say take three.

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Speaker 2: And a half, you win three and a half.

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Speaker 4: The Texans were out gained by one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 4: yards in each of their last two games, and they

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Speaker 4: lost in the last second to Atlanta. I had Texans,

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Speaker 4: they were not the right side in that game. And

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Speaker 4: I had them against the Saints too, and they were,

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Speaker 4: you know, good grade. That is mostly a coin flip game.

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Speaker 4: They were out gained pretty badly though, and Derek Carr

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Speaker 4: Derek card in the red zone. So yeah, you know,

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Speaker 4: I mean that great.

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Speaker 3: I mean, just look at the offenses that like Houston's faced,

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Speaker 3: where I think they have like the third easiest schedule

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Speaker 3: in terms of offensive the offenses they face so far,

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Speaker 3: where the Panthers have just gone through a Gauntlin, They've

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Speaker 3: had Seattle, the Lions, Miami, Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: Who is looking better?

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Speaker 3: I guess with Justin Jefferson, it's just the discrepancies and

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Speaker 3: schedules where like they've been out gained versus the easiest

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Speaker 3: offense schedule so far.

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Speaker 2: Is tough scene.

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Speaker 1: None of you and we can move on because we've

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Speaker 1: got a lot more to get to. But Stuckey has

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Speaker 1: mentioned throughout the week that he likes the over in

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Speaker 1: this game and this to be one of the higher

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Speaker 1: scoring games in the league. The total is sitting at

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Speaker 1: forty three and a half. I think there was forty

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Speaker 1: three earlier in the week, but I'm fascinated by the

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Speaker 1: total and also seeing the Panthers are at twenty and

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Speaker 1: a half team total. With to pull all of your

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Speaker 1: points about the new offensive play caller, we don't really

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Speaker 1: have an idea of what Brown is like as far

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Speaker 1: as a play caller, so I just thought that was

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Speaker 1: interesting that there's confidence that they can get over three touchdowns,

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Speaker 1: and I just I just.

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Speaker 3: Think the floor is so low, like off of Reich,

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Speaker 3: Like clearly Reich, you couldn't do it at the Cults,

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Speaker 3: where like it's going to be hard not to see

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Speaker 3: improvement with Brown even though we have nothing. We're like,

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Speaker 3: the floor is just too low for Brown not to

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Speaker 3: be an improvement.

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Speaker 1: Okay, fair enough, all right, let's move on second round

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Speaker 1: of picks. Brandon, I'm ready. I'm ready for the trends

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Speaker 1: on this one, because this one feels very trendy.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm gonna go with the Ravens. I'm gonna

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Speaker 5: take the Ravens just in the first half minus four

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Speaker 5: and a half at the Arizona Cardinals. So look, we

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Speaker 5: just talked about my first pick, the Ravens Lions game.

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Speaker 5: So I got the bad side of that game coming out,

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Speaker 5: and I'm gonna get the good side. I don't love

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Speaker 5: that because the Ravens are so good right now that

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Speaker 5: it feels a little bit like buying high in them.

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Speaker 5: I just don't think the market has priced them as

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Speaker 5: a buying high moment here, And frankly, I don't think

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Speaker 5: they've priced the Cardinals low enough here either. I picked

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Speaker 5: against the Cardinals last week, and to be fair, they

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Speaker 5: hung around into the fourth quarter, but they did not cover.

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Speaker 5: Seattle came home for us. So I just think that

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Speaker 5: the bubble is burst on this team. It's now four

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Speaker 5: straight Arizona losses, all by double digits average of fifteen

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Speaker 5: points a game. The offense, I think, is regressing a

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Speaker 5: little bit each week after that good start. They're missing

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Speaker 5: James Connor. That run game has been really good for them.

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Speaker 5: Defense has been terrible the whole season, like that was

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Speaker 5: never a thing. So here we have the Ravens, who

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Speaker 5: are number one by dv Away now, So again we're

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Speaker 5: buying high. But I don't think they're being priced as

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Speaker 5: the number one team right now. And in my power

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Speaker 5: rankings I talked about this week, I think if you're

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Speaker 5: gonna invest right now today in any futures for NFL ticket,

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Speaker 5: the Ravens are the team to do it. They're plus

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Speaker 5: six fifty to win the AFC. They're plus fourteen hundred

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Speaker 5: to win the Super Bowl by like dv Away metrics,

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Speaker 5: that's about double the price that these should be right now.

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Speaker 5: In the Ravens, like Mike McDonald's defense is playing great.

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Speaker 5: Despite missing a lot of guys early in the season,

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Speaker 5: they're getting healthy now the offense is looking good. Dbundo,

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Speaker 5: I know that you're gonna love this part. Jonathan Gannon,

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Speaker 5: Cardinals coach, terrible against elite quarterbacks. That's the thing forever

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Speaker 5: is he's vanilla. His defense just gets beat up by

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Speaker 5: elite quarterbacks. And every nerd on the internet is drooling

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Speaker 5: over Lamar Jackson just lighting up opponents right now. Like

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Speaker 5: as a passer, he has never played better. And I

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Speaker 5: just think that the Ravens could probably name their number

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Speaker 5: in this game. So why am I playing the first half?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 5: As I was choosing picks last night for this, this

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Speaker 5: was at minus eight eight and a half. It's jumped

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Speaker 5: to nine and a half. Now, I'm not super too

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Speaker 5: worried about that. I don't mind just taking the whole game.

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Speaker 5: That's probably a teaser protection move. Like we talked about

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Speaker 5: at nine and a half, you can only tease to

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Speaker 5: three and a half. You can't get blow the key number.

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Speaker 5: But Ravens first half offense third by DVA versus twentieth

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Speaker 5: in the second half, and for his career, Lamar Jackson

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Speaker 5: first half has always been a thing for his career,

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Speaker 5: forty two to twenty four and two against the spread,

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Speaker 5: sixty four percent in the first half, five and two

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Speaker 5: this season. Here's the last four Ravens games at halftime

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Speaker 5: twenty one, three, ten to three, eighteen to three, twenty eight.

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Speaker 5: Nothing that Todd Munkin offense. They're getting the practice in

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Speaker 5: the scripted offense is coming out quickly. I don't mind

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Speaker 5: the Ravens full game, I don't mind the high line.

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Speaker 5: I'll probably end up doing both, but I'm just gonna

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Speaker 5: take the first half here. There's a minus four and

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Speaker 5: a half first half lines. You gotta shop around because

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Speaker 5: there's some different numbers out there. They don't always move

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Speaker 5: as uniformly as the full game market. So I'll take

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Speaker 5: the Ravens first half minus four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good, and it feels like they've got that

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Speaker 1: offense that the Todd Munkin beliefs off and running too.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I couldn't get over Lamar Jackson. I know

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Speaker 1: you just laid out the stat there, but he's sixteen

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Speaker 1: and one straight up against the NFC, but only eight

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Speaker 1: nine against the spread. Of course, he covered this past weekend,

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Speaker 1: but like, that's just that's amazing to me.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not gonna lie. I know, Dubundo in your column,

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Speaker 5: you're on the Ravens this week. I will probably be

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Speaker 5: betting the Ravens. I believe six Pack took the Ravens

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Speaker 5: as one of their early picks all for a full

368
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Speaker 5: game cover. I it feels too easy. It feels like

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Speaker 5: a little too obvious. The Cardinals are so bad, the

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Speaker 5: Ravens are so good, eight points, nine points whatever. I

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Speaker 5: have to be honest that that's a little bit here.

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Speaker 5: Why pivoted to the first half to just be like,

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Speaker 5: I don't know, something feels funky about it. Let me

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Speaker 5: just get a first half and get out of here.

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Speaker 4: Well, I do want to say the I appreciate Brandon

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Speaker 4: not moving Baltimore to number one on his power rankings,

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Speaker 4: because the ultimate kiss of death in the NFL this

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Speaker 4: season is when you get moved to the top spot

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Speaker 4: of the Brandon Anderson Tuesday Power Rankings. They have lost

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Speaker 4: every week since outright, so they're st only number two.

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Speaker 4: So if the Ravens get a big win this week

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Speaker 4: and you move them up, which I'm hoping and I

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Speaker 4: expecting will happen, then you can guarantee I don't even

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Speaker 4: know who they're playing next week. They're in trouble the

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Speaker 4: following week in their next matchup.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's five weeks in a row the number one

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Speaker 5: Power Rankings team in my column has lost immediately the

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Speaker 5: following week. And I purposely put the Chiefs number one

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Speaker 5: this week because the Chiefs are on a sixteen game

390
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Speaker 5: win streak against the Broncos. They're in Denver this week,

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Speaker 5: and I need to find out is the Power Rankings

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Speaker 5: curse real? Because if Mahomes goes to Denver and loses,

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Speaker 5: then I got a strategy for my first pick on

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Speaker 5: this podcast every week from here on out.

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Speaker 1: Broncos Country's Ravens home to the Seahawks November fifth, after

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Speaker 1: this weekend. That's their next game.

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Speaker 3: And the Colonel should have lost by way more against

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Speaker 3: Seattle last week, Like the fact that they only lost

399
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Speaker 3: by ten was like wild for anyone who watched that game,

400
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:29,680
Speaker 3: Like it shouldn't that should not have been a sweat

401
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Speaker 3: for the Seattle bets, but it was.

402
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Speaker 1: So Yeah, Luke, what's your second one?

403
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Rams plus six at the Cowboys,

404
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,680
Speaker 3: which the Rams are just a team that you want

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Speaker 3: to back when they're a dog and you just really

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Speaker 3: don't win.

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Speaker 2: They're a favorite, and being a dog.

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Speaker 3: At plus six is just it's just the cliche too

409
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Speaker 3: many points for me, where the Cowboys are off a

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Speaker 3: bye and maybe it's like the double tax where you

411
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Speaker 3: got the home team getting two to three points, then

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Speaker 3: they're probably getting an extra half or point for being

413
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Speaker 3: off of bye. But home teams three or more off

414
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Speaker 3: of bye at home are cover at forty seven percent historically,

415
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Speaker 3: So it's just it's it's really it's just the Rams

416
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:21,199
Speaker 3: shouldn't be plus six and they are. And without Diggs

417
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 3: and van Ness, Dallas defense hasn't been great. The red

418
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 3: zone issues for the offense still exist, and Dallas plays zone,

419
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 3: which is what Stafford eats. Dallas is twenty eighth and

420
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 3: EPA over the middle, and Stafford with Cupp and Puka

421
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 3: like that is just going to be feasting grounds for him.

422
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Speaker 3: So plus six, like this is just one you see

423
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Speaker 3: and it doesn't make sense from our perspective, and it's

424
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Speaker 3: just a cliche.

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Speaker 2: Too many points.

426
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:51,439
Speaker 3: So Rams plus six can definitely see them winning money

427
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Speaker 3: line whatever it is in Dallas Sunday.

428
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Speaker 1: How do the Rams matchup defensively against Mike McCarthy's play

429
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Speaker 1: calling in Dak Prescott.

430
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Speaker 3: It all comes down to the red zone for me, Like,

431
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 3: the red zone issues just exist and they I don't

432
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Speaker 3: see them being fixed with McCarthy right now. And if

433
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Speaker 3: you can't have success in red zone, you're just not

434
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Speaker 3: gonna win games. And if you just watch any Cowboys games,

435
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 3: it is painful and it's just not something I can

436
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 3: see getting.

437
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 2: Fixed over a bye week at all.

438
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 3: Okay, Rams defense isn't great, but at the same time,

439
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 3: like whoever's hopefully it's Henderson, I guess it's definitely not Karen,

440
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 3: like they should be able to.

441
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, like the.

442
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 3: Dallas d as well against run is just awful, and

443
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,360
Speaker 3: whoever's running the ball should be able to to eat

444
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 3: as well.

445
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, running backs don't matter. That's just a common saying.

446
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 4: Come on BSDM dot com, good job to Bundo.

447
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 1: Why don't you give us your second pick the Green

448
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 1: Bay Packers plus one after you just said you haven't

449
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 1: watched enough Packers games.

450
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 5: I haven't.

451
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 4: That's funny because I haven't really bet any Packers games.

452
00:21:58,000 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 4: I bet them in Week one. I have not bet

453
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 4: for or against or a total in any Packers game

454
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 4: since week one. I don't know what to make of

455
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 4: Jordan Love. Luke asked me before the show, would I

456
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 4: take Jordan Love or Desmond Ritter. I don't know.

457
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 1: I think it may have just pulled up the spot too,

458
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: because maybe you said that before we hit record, that

459
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 1: you haven't watched a lot of Backers games. But okay,

460
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: he's gonna. Haven't that you're watching film this week, right

461
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 1: A bunch?

462
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 4: I haven't, But I can look through box scores and

463
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 4: form opinions on teams. I think I think I wanted.

464
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 4: Sometimes watching games is overrated. It biases people to remember

465
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 4: certain things. Uh now I do. I do watch the NFL, though,

466
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 4: so don't don't get that twisted.

467
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,959
Speaker 1: But uh well, the Phillies are out, so you have

468
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 1: more time.

469
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 4: I have a heart written exactly yes, Wow, Sunday from

470
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 4: one to seven.

471
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: Branded I got your back.

472
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 4: Man.

473
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 1: They're piling on this Panther stuff. I'm kind They're just

474
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: coming back on the other stuff.

475
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 5: Vikings too, Come on, all right, make the case to bundo.

476
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 4: So so, like three or four weeks ago, everybody rode

477
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,959
Speaker 4: off Minnesota right and and the Vikings were done. They

478
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 4: were finished as a team. They started the season poorly.

479
00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 4: Justin Jefferson goes on the injured reserve, and everybody sign

480
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 4: as like, yeah, blow it up, Kirk Cousins probably traded,

481
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 4: They're gonna, you know, cut the team start to rebuild.

482
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 4: They win a couple of games, including on national television,

483
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 4: which everybody just watched against the forty nine Ers, and really,

484
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 4: you know, now that we've learned about brock Perty's concussion situation,

485
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 4: I think it kind of changes even what I think

486
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 4: about that victory because Purdy played really well until the

487
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 4: end of the game, and now we know we saw

488
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:23,919
Speaker 4: the play where he got the concussion on the on

489
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 4: the sneak, he took a huge hit and he threw

490
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 4: two picks after that. I think that had a major

491
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 4: impact on the game. Also, the forty nine Ers not

492
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 4: having debo, not having Trent Williams plays a role for

493
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 4: them as well. Now everybody wants to buy in on

494
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 4: Minnesota again because of these three straight wins. Everybody is

495
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 4: now out on Green Bay, who started the season, you know,

496
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 4: with a couple of wins two and one, and then

497
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 4: lost three in a row and pretty ugly losses to

498
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 4: the Raiders and to the Broncos. But I think this

499
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 4: is a good matchup for the Packers because you can

500
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 4: run the ball on green Bay. Their secondary is pretty

501
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 4: good and Minnesota doesn't really run the ball much. They're

502
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 4: you know, the Alex Madison experiment has not gone well.

503
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,919
Speaker 4: They're rushing are pretty down. They don't run the ball

504
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 4: a lot. It's mostly a pass heavy offense. And JayR

505
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 4: Alexander is back as well for green Bay. They did

506
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 4: lose Stokes, they put him on the ir so that's

507
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 4: not great for green Bay. But getting Jay Year back

508
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 4: to cover Addison, I think is a big plus. And

509
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 4: I just think that, you know, at the beginning of

510
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 4: the season, I thought green Bay was the better team.

511
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 4: Through the early portion of this season, I still think

512
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 4: green Bay is the better team, and I'm catching a

513
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 4: point at home. I think they should be a small favorite.

514
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 4: So give me the Pack Go, Pack Go the second

515
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 4: time all season. And I will actually watch this game

516
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 4: now since I have action on it, and I will

517
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 4: be having to get a better opinion on what I

518
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 4: think of Jordan Love. This is a great matchup for him, though,

519
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 4: against a bad Minnesota secondary that anybody can carve up.

520
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 1: All right, last round of picks, Brandon, what's your third one?

521
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 5: All right, this is gross. Give me the Tennessee Titans

522
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 5: plus three against the Falcons.

523
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: Gross.

524
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 5: I'm picking will Levis in his first start after I

525
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:56,120
Speaker 5: dumped on him the entire draft process. No, I don't

526
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 5: think Will Levis magically got good over at night. No,

527
00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 5: I'm not excited to back him here. We used to

528
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 5: play in Desmond Raiders. So let's just ignore the quarterbacks

529
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 5: in this game we met. Tennessee might be playing both guys.

530
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 5: Malik Willis too. I don't know what's happening. Like, the

531
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 5: quarterback play in this game is not gonna be pretty.

532
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 2: Here's what we do know.

533
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 5: Mike Rabel coming out of a bye week number one,

534
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 5: five to zero against the spread. After the bye week

535
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,159
Speaker 5: for Mike Rabel, now he's had a whole week not

536
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 5: just to any opponent, but his old pal, Arthur Smith,

537
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,360
Speaker 5: the guy that coached offense in Tennessee for a couple

538
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 5: of seasons. Guess who schemed up against that week after

539
00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 5: week in practice and knows, Like, what's Arthur gonna be

540
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 5: doing here? Spoiler alert, running the football, it's all he does.

541
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 5: Rabel's gonna be ready for that. I think he's gonna

542
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 5: want this game against Arthur Smith. It's a pretty terrible

543
00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 5: matchup for Atlanta because the one thing we know about

544
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 5: Tennessee for years now is there a pass funnel defense.

545
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 5: They can totally shut down the run game. That's all

546
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,920
Speaker 5: Atlanta wants to do is run the football. So Tennessee's

547
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 5: secondary is beatable if you didn't have Dezil been a Raider,

548
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 5: but you got to actually pass the ball against a

549
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 5: beatable secondary to beat them. Good luck with that. Tennessee

550
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 5: is way better at home so far this season on

551
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 5: offense DVA fifteenth versus thirtieth on the road, defense eighth

552
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 5: versus twenty fifth on the road, And shockingly enough, Tennessee

553
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,199
Speaker 5: is actually in the last four weeks top ten in

554
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 5: overall DVOA. Like that makes me just want to throw

555
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 5: out DVOA to be totally honest, Like I want the

556
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 5: Titans are top ten team. I don't know what that means,

557
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,239
Speaker 5: but I'm adding it to my argument. These are kind

558
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 5: of Spider Man meme teams, right, Like they're just like, uh,

559
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 5: I don't want to watch this, but let's run the

560
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 5: ball a whole bunch and maybe occasionally pass. I kind

561
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 5: of think Tennessee is a better version of it right now,

562
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 5: like Derrick Henry and the way they're running the football

563
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 5: has been better than what Atlanta has been doing, so

564
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 5: especially at home catching three points, I'll take Tennessee here.

565
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,520
Speaker 5: Desen Ridder on the road don't like that. I thought

566
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 5: about just going back to the bet against Rider in

567
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 5: the first half. Well, he finally covered his first first

568
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,239
Speaker 5: half ever the time we played it last week, so

569
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 5: I don't mind that if you want, but I'm still

570
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 5: stinging over that one. Mike Rabel as a home underdog

571
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 5: sixty one percent ATS, as a underdog of three or

572
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 5: more in his career twenty three eleven and a one

573
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 5: ATS sixty eight percent, and as a home dog of

574
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 5: three or more he is eight and four straight up.

575
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 5: As a home underdog of three or more points, Mike

576
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 5: Rabel is eight and four eighty three percent ROI on

577
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 5: the money line, and even if you just ignore the

578
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 5: teams you've heard me on this podcast give out a trend.

579
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 5: When the total is below forty two, underdogs of under

580
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 5: four sixty four percent ATS. That's up to seventy percent

581
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,639
Speaker 5: this year. The total is way below forty two here.

582
00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 5: I think it's like thirty five and a half right now,

583
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 5: when the total is below thirty seven, the underdog is

584
00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 5: ten and two ats of course, because the three point

585
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 5: they're all the more valuable if we're only going to

586
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 5: score like thirty five points come by and here. So

587
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 5: it's disgusting. It's will Levis, It's Malik Willis. I can't

588
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 5: believe I'm doing this. I literally have bet the Titans

589
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 5: win total under for the season two weeks.

590
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 2: In a row.

591
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 5: I like the spot. I'll take the Titans plus three, okay.

592
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: And not to mention Arthur Smith in that press conference

593
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: this week in regards to the running game and Bijon

594
00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 1: having an illness and Algier getting more carried, that whole

595
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 1: thing is just still haven't figured that one out, Luke,

596
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 1: You're going the other way though on this one. That's

597
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 1: your last one Atlanta minus two and a half.

598
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 3: Why yes, I mean this is more of just like

599
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 3: a fading the Titans than actually backing the Falcons, and

600
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 3: it really normally like one of like I guess my

601
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: core principles is like never betting against like a QB

602
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 3: that hasn't started before, like never betting against an unknown

603
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 3: which usually wouldn't wear in those situations with backup quarterbacks

604
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 3: coming in, Like we're looking at lines in the four

605
00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 3: higher the seven range, where the fact that two and

606
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 3: a half three right now just makes it too enticing

607
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 3: for me.

608
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 2: And Levis looked really really.

609
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 3: Really really bad in the preseason, Like I think his

610
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,479
Speaker 3: PFF grade was like sub forty and he had like

611
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 3: two picks in a fumble so in like on downs

612
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 3: it like mattered, So he looked really bad. And like

613
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 3: if it's I think, if it's Malik, I mean I guess,

614
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 3: but it's just Levis is bad right now, Like there's

615
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 3: a like I remember in the mock drafts, who's paid to.

616
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 2: Go top five pick and he fell this second.

617
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 1: This has given me nightmares back to our draft episodes

618
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: in it like really hard time with the Will Levis rumors.

619
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, which like and then you're gonna put Levice behind

620
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 3: this offensive line, which is probably the worst offensive line

621
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 3: in the league right now, going against a falcon Zy

622
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 3: that just continues to be underrated. They're sixth and EPA

623
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 3: against the run and number one against the run in

624
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 3: success rate, And like Brandon's trends are all like great,

625
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 3: uh and Rabel's probably one of like my favorite coaches

626
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 3: in the league. If I was starting a team, he

627
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 3: might be my first pick. But we're talking about a

628
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 3: Titans team that is a lot different than years past.

629
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 2: Like this is probably Raybel's worst Titans team by far.

630
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 3: And I mean they just traded Kevin Byard, who's probably

631
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 3: a top five safety in the league. So it definitely

632
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 3: sends a message on where they see this team going

633
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 3: off the buy and it doesn't seem in the right direction.

634
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 3: And Ritter's been scary on the road and hasn't been great,

635
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 3: but the last two weeks he's improved the last two

636
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 3: weeks to a level that I think is above their

637
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: perspective at this point relative to what he has been

638
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 3: earlier this season. And then the Titans defense has just

639
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: been bad as well. Secondaries off of the run de okay,

640
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 3: but they've gone against the fourth easiest schedule in terms

641
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 3: of offenses they face as well, and there's still one

642
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 3: of the worst defenses in the league. So Titans minus

643
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 3: two and a half going against a backup QB. I

644
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 3: know we have a dozen Ritterer, but usually the situations

645
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 3: we're looking at lines that are four or five sixty

646
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 3: seven whatever it is, but two and a half it's

647
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:02,479
Speaker 3: too enticing.

648
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 2: Maybe it's a trap. It's a trap, but one of

649
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 2: us will win.

650
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 5: So from my point of view, the Titans are facing

651
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 5: a backup quarterback too. But you know, so that's what

652
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 5: I think about Desmond Rader at this point.

653
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: Okay, dubundo one more the NFL.

654
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 4: One of the NFL rules of equilibrium is the Mike

655
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 4: Tomlin five hundred stabilizer rule that I just invented five

656
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 4: minutes ago. The Steelers are now four and two. This

657
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 4: is not a raw rob. Mike Tomlin spot is a

658
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 4: blah blah Mike Tomlins spot. Oh whoa yeah, terrible, I know.

659
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 4: And in reality, though, the Jags are a much much

660
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 4: better team. And I have somebody who's came into the

661
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 4: season down on the Jags, but I couldn't be lower

662
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 4: on this Pittsburgh offense. I mean, they somehow managed to

663
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 4: lull every team to sleep and then put together one

664
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 4: great drive in the fourth quarter of every game to

665
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 4: trick people into thinking they're actually good. You cannot run

666
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 4: the ball or they cannot run the ball, which is

667
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 4: really the way you You can't run on Jacksonville to

668
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 4: begin with, and they can't run the ball. Therefore, they're

669
00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 4: going to be extremely one dimensional. It's going to just

670
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 4: be Enny t Get dropping back Jalen Warren.

671
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: That's it, like no more nause like it's incredible, Like

672
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 3: just give Warren all of the snaps.

673
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: So I interrupted, it's just like insane Tony.

674
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 4: Even if they give Warren the snaps in this game, though,

675
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 4: Jacksonville's defense is a lead against the run, and I

676
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 4: think the Jags can exploit what is a very mediocre

677
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 4: pass defense in Pittsburgh. The Steelers pass success rate below average,

678
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 4: pass EPA below average, like JJ Watt's good or TJ

679
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 4: Watt is good at creating havoc shore but without the

680
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 4: splash plays is a very average defense. And the Jags,

681
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:34,959
Speaker 4: but I like about their offense as much as it

682
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 4: is inconsistent on a week to week basis. They don't

683
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 4: waste downs running the ball, and that is huge because

684
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 4: so many teams try to play keep away against this

685
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh team and try to just like I said, lull

686
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 4: them to sleep, and they end up letting Pittsburgh hang around,

687
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 4: Let Pittsburgh hang around, and then one big splash play

688
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 4: and all of a sudden it's a tie game in

689
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 4: the fourth quarter. Jacksonville has the lowest pass rate on

690
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 4: second and tent in the NFL, or excuse me, lowest

691
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 4: run rate on second intent in the NFL. That's a

692
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 4: major key. They're gonna put the ball in Lawrence's hands.

693
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 4: They're gonna get it to the weapons out wide and

694
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 4: win this game by at least a field goal. I

695
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 4: think Jacksonville should be laying three. You can still bet

696
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 4: two and a half. I like Jacksonville minus two and

697
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 4: a half betting against Pittsburgh once again for the second

698
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 4: straight week. For me, let's see if we can hold

699
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 4: the lead or make a field goal, because if we

700
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 4: can do that, I think the Steelers are going to

701
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 4: start regressing here. I mean they're still thirty first and

702
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 4: early down success rate offensively.

703
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm.

704
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: I'm gonna see if we can make what do you

705
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: guys quit today? Okay? Going against all the trendy, the

706
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin bloblast spot, that's good. That's pretty good. We

707
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 1: typically say raw raw on this podcast, but when Dubundo

708
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: comes in, it's the blah blast spot. That's good. The

709
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,360
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731
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:09,439
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Brandon Anderson look

732
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 1: aheadline for Week nine. I shouldn't be shocked where you're

733
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 1: going with this one.

734
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 5: I'm not going anywhere, Brandon. I'm staying right here on

735
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 5: Texans Island. A second straight week in the look Ahead.

736
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 5: Give me the Texans minus two and a half at

737
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 5: home against the Buccaneers. Look, I think this is honestly

738
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 5: a much better spot than Loka ahead we had from

739
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 5: last week. We've talked a lot about the Texans on

740
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 5: this podcast. Minus three three and a half in Carolina

741
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 5: is something a little different. Minus two and a half

742
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 5: under the key number at home against the Buccaneers. Two

743
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 5: and a half is basically home field advantage these days.

744
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 5: So you're saying box Texans should just be a coin

745
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 5: flip on a neutral I don't know how we get there.

746
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 5: What teams have been watching this season? Where we think

747
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 5: those teams are the same. The Bucks have all sorts

748
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 5: of like fraudulent underlying numbers on third down and in

749
00:35:56,600 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 5: the red zone. They're a team that I'm looking to

750
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 5: bet against going forward. Houston. We know, we know I

751
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 5: want to bet on Houston. Were talked about them getting

752
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 5: healthy by EPA. If you throw out the first tw

753
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 5: weeks of the season, which you can't just throw them out,

754
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 5: they count. But that's when Houston had all those injuries

755
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 5: and a NEWARKI quarterback orgy coach. Since week three, EPA,

756
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 5: Kansas City, San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, and the Houston Texans.

757
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 5: That is your top five. I think that's gonna go

758
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 5: up after they beat Carolina this week, and the Buccaneers

759
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 5: by the time you listen to this will have lost

760
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 5: in Buffalo Thursday night. I think we're gonna move past

761
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 5: the key number here. Minus two and a half is

762
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 5: just a terrible line to me. I don't know how

763
00:36:37,120 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 5: we're rating these teams equal. Texans are a much better team.

764
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 5: I like their offensive line getting healthy. I think they're

765
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 5: gonna be able to move the ball in Tampa. Here

766
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 5: give me Texans Island minus two and a half against

767
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 5: the Buccaneers.

768
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: In conclusion, Brandon just loves the AFC South and hates

769
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 1: the NFC self. That is what I've gathered from this

770
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: episode that is going to do it. Here on the

771
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast for our NF Week eight Best Bets episode, again,

772
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,799
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773
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774
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775
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: also tune in on Monday morning for our weekly recap

776
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,479
Speaker 1: episode Joe Evan Abrams Brandon stops by for his hot read.

777
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 1: That's every Monday morning and again folks, if you're looking

778
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:25,120
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Speaker 1: guys like this other folks that give out picks. Best

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00:37:31,800 --> 00:37:35,360
Speaker 1: of luck this weekend for Dubundo Luke and Brandon Brendan Glasheen.

782
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,520
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784
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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly.

786
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