Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play,
Speaker 2: and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen
Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
Speaker 2: live on.
Speaker 3: YouTube alongside Joe Matthew. Here in Washington, where we are
Speaker 3: keeping track of the transition, which seems to be picking
Speaker 3: up its pace heres. Donald Trump has been announcing more
Speaker 3: and more people who will either serve in his cabinet
Speaker 3: or be close to him during his second administration, some
Speaker 3: of course being tapped for positions that don't require Senate
Speaker 3: approval and confirmation. But the cabinet is going to be
Speaker 3: especially interesting here as we consider who the big players
Speaker 3: will be around the table with him, and especially as
Speaker 3: we consider the Treasury secretary potentially knowing that someone actually
Speaker 3: took themselves out of the running today, Paulson, in a
Speaker 3: statement said it would be too financially complicated, given his
Speaker 3: complex financial obligations, for her to serve in this role,
Speaker 3: which does seem to be shortening the list, and Bloomberg
Speaker 3: is reporting today our colleague Seleia mosen and Jenny Leonard
Speaker 3: that topping the list potentially at least to some Trump
Speaker 3: advisors who are pushing for this, would be Scott Bessett
Speaker 3: of Key Square Group, the Macro Hedge Fund. Remember we
Speaker 3: spoke with him on this program before the election. Take
Speaker 3: a listen to part of our conversation.
Speaker 4: He has a deep understanding of financial markets as opposed
Speaker 4: to most politicians, so he wants to be involved in
Speaker 4: the conversation. He has very well formed opinions, have a
Speaker 4: lot of private sector friends, so he just wants to
Speaker 4: be a voice.
Speaker 5: Sorry to start our conversation with Bloomberg senior Washington correspondent
Speaker 5: Seleia Mosen, of course, host of the Big Take DC podcast,
Speaker 5: something we talk about with Seleia pretty often here. She's
Speaker 5: also spearheading our coverage of the transition in time to
Speaker 5: name name, Seleia, is great to see you. Thank you
Speaker 5: for joining us today. Did we just see the next
Speaker 5: trad free secretary there?
Speaker 6: Maybe we did. According to our reporting here at Boomberg,
Speaker 6: it looks like most of Trump's key advisors are supporting
Speaker 6: Scott Bessett for the job of tragery Secretary, but Trump
Speaker 6: himself has not weighed in. He has not made a decision.
Speaker 3: Well, but he has heralded best repeatedly on the campaign trail,
Speaker 3: calling him out at rallies that kind of thing. We
Speaker 3: understand that these two are actually quite close. So I
Speaker 3: wonder why this is taking so long, given Trump has
Speaker 3: already announced many others. If it were obvious that it
Speaker 3: would be best, and wouldn't we know that already?
Speaker 6: I guess, So, I mean, we all want to know desperately.
Speaker 6: Obviously we are bloomberg. But at the same time, Marco
Speaker 6: Rubio for Secretary of State that has not been announced, right,
Speaker 6: so we're still waiting on a couple that have been floated, saft, floated,
Speaker 6: air tested, who knows, whatever you want to call it,
Speaker 6: but they have not been formally announced. And who knows
Speaker 6: how things are panning out at mar A Lago, whether
Speaker 6: they want to float names, see what happens, or call
Speaker 6: people down for interviews, or if advisors are just getting
Speaker 6: ready for if Donald Trump president elect? Donald Trump says,
Speaker 6: who do you think I want for this? We have
Speaker 6: our ducks in a row.
Speaker 5: We know what we want to tell you, moving pretty
Speaker 5: quickly this time. I was recalling in our last hour
Speaker 5: the Apprentice style walk we saw in twenty sixteen, everybody
Speaker 5: had to go on the lobby of Trump Tower, awkwardly,
Speaker 5: wait for the elevator, choose to say something to a
Speaker 5: reporter if they wanted to, and then go do the
Speaker 5: audition or the interview. We're rolling them out pretty quickly
Speaker 5: this time, a much more concerted and deliberate process.
Speaker 6: It feels like, well, so far, it's pretty organized, I mean,
Speaker 6: and that's a reflection of how the campaign itself was
Speaker 6: much more organized compared to Trump's efforts in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 6: And in twenty twenty. We have the first female White
Speaker 6: House Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, who was overseeing much
Speaker 6: of his campaign, and she has really kept things organized,
Speaker 6: including the number of leaks.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 3: So as we consider the names that have been whether
Speaker 3: leaked out or actually outright confirmed, they do include and
Speaker 3: you mentioned Marco Rubio, which hasn't been confirmed by the
Speaker 3: President elect yet. They include a lot of current members
Speaker 3: of the House or the Senate Elistaphonic Tap for U
Speaker 3: n Ambassador Congressman Mike Waltz of Florida for a national
Speaker 3: security and then of course Senator Rubio. Should we expect
Speaker 3: more of the picks that are announced going forward to
Speaker 3: come from Congress, or is he not going to want
Speaker 3: to pull too much out of what looks like it
Speaker 3: could be a very narrow majority in the House at least.
Speaker 6: Look just speculation on my part looking at the information
Speaker 6: that we have in front of us. If there's a
Speaker 6: narrow majority in the Senate for Republicans, they're only going
Speaker 6: to want to pull senators from the chamber if they
Speaker 6: can reliably replace that Senate seat with a Republican. So
Speaker 6: I think that there is an air of caution of
Speaker 6: how many to pull. We don't know what the margin
Speaker 6: is for the House side, but we did see the
Speaker 6: National Security Advisor is coming from the House, so maybe
Speaker 6: there's a little bit more wiggle room.
Speaker 5: There is there a hope that this cabinet stays together
Speaker 5: longer than the original one. It does seem like there
Speaker 5: is some consistency here in bringing in loyalists, also checking
Speaker 5: the box es central casting that we know Donald Trump
Speaker 5: likes to check, but not to have the revolving door
Speaker 5: that they experienced the first time around.
Speaker 6: Yeah, it would be great for all of us. There's
Speaker 6: not the same revolving door. It'd be great for markets
Speaker 6: and economic policy. Last time around, we saw the Treasury secretary.
Speaker 6: Then it was Stephen Mnushan. He stuck by for four years.
Speaker 6: That gave a lot of stability to economic policy. Let's
Speaker 6: see if we get the same thing I mean this
Speaker 6: time around, if we can have a Secretary of State
Speaker 6: who stays. There was high turnover in that slot in
Speaker 6: White House chief of Staff. Now, if we're looking at
Speaker 6: how things have run so far in twenty twenty four
Speaker 6: with Susie Wiles, maybe we will see more stability.
Speaker 3: Well, and Susie Wiles, as I alluded to you earlier,
Speaker 3: one of the folks that isn't going to require confirmation
Speaker 3: from the Senate, just like Steven Miller, who we understand
Speaker 3: has been tapped for Deputy chief of Staff for policy,
Speaker 3: but this is really just putting him in a position
Speaker 3: to help influence policy, especially when it comes to the
Speaker 3: border and immigration.
Speaker 6: Absolutely all of these jobs come with great, big titles.
Speaker 6: A lot of them do have firm job descriptions, but
Speaker 6: a lot of it, especially the roles that don't need
Speaker 6: Senate confirmation, like White House Chief of Staff or Deputy
Speaker 6: chief of staff, there's a lot of leeway on what
Speaker 6: kind of job description you want to have. What you
Speaker 6: go in with and what your boss ultimately gives you.
Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg, salamos, and you can check out all
Speaker 3: of her reporting on this transition on the Bloomberg terminal
Speaker 3: or online. Thank you so much for joining us. And
Speaker 3: it's remarkable to consider here Joe, as Donald Trump does,
Speaker 3: has alluded to the fact that he sees himself as
Speaker 3: coming to this office a second time around with even
Speaker 3: more of a mandate than he perhaps had before, having one,
Speaker 3: of course, the popular vote, and also having at least
Speaker 3: the Senate backing him in addition, potentially to the House
Speaker 3: once we know whether or not that's called, which just
Speaker 3: speaks to the fact that while we expected this race
Speaker 3: to be close, and in a lot of ways it was,
Speaker 3: it also brought with it a full red sweep.
Speaker 5: Well that's for sure, a red sweep that we can
Speaker 5: now quantify almost entirely. We're still waiting for the House,
Speaker 5: and they could be as just as little as one
Speaker 5: race away. As a matter of fact, with the seven
Speaker 5: contested seats left Republicans need to turn one, we actually
Speaker 5: have more like fifteen that have yet to be called.
Speaker 5: But that's how razor thin things are in the House,
Speaker 5: and when Donald Trump is up there, to maris, he's
Speaker 5: going to be talking about the leadership battles that we're
Speaker 5: about to endure. The vote set for Wednesday. Mike Johnson
Speaker 5: probably comfortable where he is. The question is who replaces
Speaker 5: Mitch McConnell, yep.
Speaker 3: Is it going to be a John John Thuner, John
Speaker 3: Cornyn Are Perhaps could it be the dark Corse candidate
Speaker 3: Rick Scott that it does seem those close to Trump
Speaker 3: are now pushing for. We're going to have to wait
Speaker 3: to find out, but we didn't want to wait. To
Speaker 3: touch back in with Andre Gillespie of Emory University. She,
Speaker 3: of course, is an associate professor in the Department of
Speaker 3: Political Science. We were checking in with her frequently throughout
Speaker 3: this election cycle and want to check back with her
Speaker 3: now as we continue to do the post mortem here. Andre,
Speaker 3: welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 3: While Joe is right to point out, we don't for
Speaker 3: sure know that the House is going to be still
Speaker 3: a Republican majority, and we still got to get a
Speaker 3: few more race calls, but it is the prevailing wisdom
Speaker 3: that Republicans will be able to keep a narrow hold
Speaker 3: on that chamber. So I wonder what that says to
Speaker 3: you that it wasn't just the presidency but the entirety
Speaker 3: of Congress potentially that swept one way here.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you know, this is clearly still a
Speaker 1: divided country. So if we're looking at the margins not
Speaker 1: just by which President Trump won and the margins in
Speaker 1: the swing states, but we're also looking at what the
Speaker 1: legislative majorities look like in both the House and the Senate.
Speaker 1: And I'm certainly anticipating that Republicans are going to retain
Speaker 1: control of the House. We're still looking at very narrow
Speaker 1: legislative majorities, which suggests one our country is still polarized.
Speaker 1: And what it also suggests is that the governing coalition
Speaker 1: is going to have to maintain discipline in order to
Speaker 1: be effective. And if they cannot maintain discipline, there are
Speaker 1: going to be ways for Congress to still be at
Speaker 1: a standstill. So, you know, you can't just blame it
Speaker 1: on having the president of one party and having one
Speaker 1: chamber in Congress being controlled by the other for there
Speaker 1: to be a legislative stalemate. There's still the possibility for that.
Speaker 1: It's really going to come down to management and It's
Speaker 1: going to come down to the ideas and the policies
Speaker 1: that are being presented well.
Speaker 5: As Republicans choose their leaders this week, and I don't
Speaker 5: think we'll have too many surprises, if any, on the
Speaker 5: House side. And I wonder what the strategy conversation is
Speaker 5: today between Hakim Jeffreys, Pete Aguilar, and Catherine Clark. The
Speaker 5: Democratic leadership in the House remains in the minority. What's
Speaker 5: their plan.
Speaker 1: I think what they may be considering is how much
Speaker 1: to push back and win, to fight their battles. You know,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump certainly has a mandate. He has a bigger
Speaker 1: mandate because he won the popular vote and not just
Speaker 1: the electoral college in this election. But again it's a
Speaker 1: narrow mandate. And I think what people, what Democrats may
Speaker 1: decide to do is to stand back and let Democrats
Speaker 1: and let Republicans govern, and let's see if the ideas
Speaker 1: actually hold merit, if they can get through Congress and
Speaker 1: get signed by the President, and also when implemented, if
Speaker 1: they actually do work for the American people, if they
Speaker 1: are perceived as being antagonistic or opposing all things and
Speaker 1: not just voting against it, which I expect Democrats to do,
Speaker 1: but mostiferously coming out and attacking every thing. It might
Speaker 1: actually take attention away from the merits of the policies themselves.
Speaker 1: And if these policies prove to not actually be good
Speaker 1: for the American people, then the Democrats have their talking points. See,
Speaker 1: we let Republicans reign and govern in an unfettered kind
Speaker 1: of way, and the policies that they put forward were
Speaker 1: disastrous for the American people. So I suspect that they're
Speaker 1: trying to figure out when is the right time to
Speaker 1: push back, especially if it involves preserving institutions, But when
Speaker 1: do they allow bad policies to come forward so that
Speaker 1: the American people can see that those policies might not
Speaker 1: actually be advantageous towards all American people, and including some
Speaker 1: of the people who voted for Donald Trump. I think
Speaker 1: that that's probably the direction in which they're headed.
Speaker 3: Well, so as we consider those people who voted for
Speaker 3: Donald Trump Andrew Obviously nothing is monolithic, but we've spent
Speaker 3: a lot of time talking about the swing we saw
Speaker 3: toward him in specific demographic groups, including Latinos, some portion
Speaker 3: of black men as well.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 3: It is the Republican Party that seems like it is
Speaker 3: attracting more people into a larger tent. One could argue,
Speaker 3: I wonder what you make of the fact, though, that
Speaker 3: that kind of wider coalition, more multicultural, multiethnic coalition doesn't
Speaker 3: necessarily seem to be manifesting itself in the same way.
Speaker 3: As Donald Trump selects those who will be closest to
Speaker 3: him as he actually serves as president other than Marco
Speaker 3: rubiov that people who have been named so far and
Speaker 3: those we understand to be on the short list list,
Speaker 3: we're talking about a lot of white people.
Speaker 1: Well, if you go back and you look at what
Speaker 1: his cabinet and cabinet equivalent appointments look like. In his
Speaker 1: first term, he had Nikki Haley, and he had Ben Carson.
Speaker 1: And then if we look at the number of women,
Speaker 1: we also saw that compared to the Obama Bush Clinton administrations,
Speaker 1: he had far fewer women in positions of leaderships. So
Speaker 1: you look at people like Mickey Haley or Kirsten Nielsen,
Speaker 1: among others, who were able to serve lind of a
Speaker 1: command excuse me, in positions of power. He hasn't had
Speaker 1: time to announce his full cabinet slight wait to see
Speaker 1: what the diversity looks like Marco Rubio is certainly, if
Speaker 1: he is in fact the design need to be Secretary
Speaker 1: of State is certainly a historic choice choice. He would
Speaker 1: be the first Latino in this position, and you know,
Speaker 1: I think that it is certainly remarkable in terms of
Speaker 1: descriptive representation. Suzy Wilde's choice is certainly a descriptively representative choice.
Speaker 1: You know, I think we need to give him time
Speaker 1: to see how much more diverse it looks. I don't
Speaker 1: think I'm holding my breath to see if it's going
Speaker 1: to match the diversity of the Biden or the Obama
Speaker 1: or the Clinton administrations, or even the Bush administrations. But
Speaker 1: I think that I'm expecting to see a little bit
Speaker 1: more descriptive diversity amongst the cabinet level picks.
Speaker 5: Professor Donald Trump's coming to town tomorrow is going to
Speaker 5: meet with Joe Biden in the Oval Office. I suspect
Speaker 5: the optics will be fascinating. Should Joe Biden remind Donald
Speaker 5: Trump or the reporters in the room that he was
Speaker 5: not afforded such an invitation four years ago.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't know what would be gained by
Speaker 1: bringing that up. I mean, and certainly as signed of graciousness.
Speaker 1: I expect that reporters are going to an analyst are
Speaker 1: going to make that particular observation. I think this might
Speaker 1: be an opportunity for President Biden to talk about how
Speaker 1: important it is for democracies to have smooth transitions, for
Speaker 1: losers to accept their defeat gracefully, and by just demonstrating
Speaker 1: and modeling that in some ways, it might be an
Speaker 1: indictment of how poorly the last transition.
Speaker 3: Was well fair enough, and they have pledged to make
Speaker 3: this transition go more smooth smoothly this time around, Odre. Finally,
Speaker 3: before we let you go. Of course, the way in
Speaker 3: which Donald Trump used his mandate here is one that
Speaker 3: could be potentially much more solid and broader, considering he
Speaker 3: did claim victory in every single swing state that we
Speaker 3: were watching, including your state of Georgia, and you know,
Speaker 3: Georgia politics incredibly well. And I wonder, as we can
Speaker 3: cast forward to four more years from now, even two
Speaker 3: more years from now in the mid terms, if this
Speaker 3: was decisive, or if Georgia is still going to be
Speaker 3: swingy in the elections moving forward, knowing that the Blue Wall,
Speaker 3: for example, didn't look so blue this time around. In fact,
Speaker 3: it looked very very right.
Speaker 1: Well, I think Donald Trump certainly has a mandate, but
Speaker 1: I think that some of his new supporters are conditional supporters,
Speaker 1: and they want to see that he makes good on
Speaker 1: his promises, which probably factored more into the impressions of
Speaker 1: improving the economy and lowering inflation than it did on
Speaker 1: some of the other tenants of his platform. We can
Speaker 1: already see his immigration policy taking shape, and I think voters,
Speaker 1: supporters and opponents are going to look to see how
Speaker 1: efficacious his policies are. He might be able to maintain
Speaker 1: or broaden that base if he does it, if he
Speaker 1: does a good job, but if he doesn't, he might
Speaker 1: lose some of those supporters. And as far as Georgia
Speaker 1: is concerned, I think it's important to keep in mind
Speaker 1: that Kamala Harris lost the state by a margin of
Speaker 1: about two and a half percentage points. That's half the
Speaker 1: margin by which Hillary Clinton lost in twenty twenty. So
Speaker 1: while the fundamentals of the state of Georgia still favor Republicans,
Speaker 1: they're favoring them by slimmer margins. And I think twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four was kind of evidence of the fact that
Speaker 1: Georgia is still much more competitive than it was twenty
Speaker 1: years ago.
Speaker 5: Andred, it's great to have you back. Andre Gillespie, EMRA
Speaker 5: University Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science with
Speaker 5: us just one week after the election. We'll assemble our
Speaker 5: panel next lots to talk about on the transition coming
Speaker 5: up with Genie Shanzano and Chapin Fay. Right here on
Speaker 5: Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron
Speaker 2: Oo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power here on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 3: and Radio. I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew with some
Speaker 3: breaking official news in just the last few minutes. We
Speaker 3: already knew it based off of people familiar with the matter,
Speaker 3: but Donald Trump is now making it official. He's named
Speaker 3: Florida Congressman Mike Waltz as his national security advisor, releasing
Speaker 3: a statement in which he says, in part, Mike has
Speaker 3: been a strong champion of my America First foreign policy
Speaker 3: agenda and will be a tremendous champion of our pursuit
Speaker 3: of peace through strength. Then, Joe, this is of course
Speaker 3: just another selection that broadly is painting a picture not
Speaker 3: only the doubling down on the America First agenda and
Speaker 3: those close to it. You can say the same through
Speaker 3: the selection of Congressman A lease daphonic to UN ambassador
Speaker 3: and Marco Rubio. We understand going to be tapped for
Speaker 3: a Secretary of State, but peace through strength, America First
Speaker 3: is a common thing. And of course loyal to Trump
Speaker 3: tops that list of yeah, big time attributes as well.
Speaker 5: This is a retired Special Forces officer, been on the
Speaker 5: House since twenty nineteen, and then a fierce critic of
Speaker 5: Joe Biden's foreign policy. And so here we are here
Speaker 5: with one more blank to be filled. We got a
Speaker 5: bunch of them yesterday as well, several not just Congress
Speaker 5: while several from the House of Representatives, where we've got
Speaker 5: a very thin majority. Here once again for Speaker Mike Johnson,
Speaker 5: but Leez Elden also came up here. Wasn't just a
Speaker 5: least staphonic to the UN lee Z Elden to the EPA,
Speaker 5: raising a lot of questions about what experience he has
Speaker 5: helping to manage the environment.
Speaker 3: Well, the answer to that question is not a ton.
Speaker 3: But it does seem that this is at least he
Speaker 3: was trying to frame it as more of an economic appointment. Yeah,
Speaker 3: anything else. As Donald Trump has talked consistently about helping
Speaker 3: the economy through lowering energy costs and unleashing oil and
Speaker 3: gas as well, it makes you wonder what kind of
Speaker 3: policy and regulatory frameworks we're going to be getting out
Speaker 3: of the EPA A sure industry.
Speaker 5: Yeah, to Kaylee's point, Congressman Zelden spoke to this on
Speaker 5: Fox News from an economic perspective.
Speaker 8: Here's what he said.
Speaker 9: One of the biggest issues for so many Americans was
Speaker 9: the economy, and the President was talking about unleashing economic
Speaker 9: prosperity through the EPA. We have the ability to pursue
Speaker 9: energy dominance, to be able to make the United States
Speaker 9: the artificial intelligence capital of the world, to bring back
Speaker 9: American jobs to the auto industry, and so much more.
Speaker 5: Let's assemble our panel for their take on some of
Speaker 5: the appointments. The transition is now in full speed and
Speaker 5: we have Genie Shanzino, of course, Democratic analyst and Bloomberg
Speaker 5: Politics contributor, Senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the
Speaker 5: Study of the Presidency in Congress, Jape and Fay Republican
Speaker 5: strategist and founder of Lighthouse Public Affairs. Great to see
Speaker 5: you both. Genie, what's your thought on not only the
Speaker 5: broad scope of the appointments that we've heard so far,
Speaker 5: but specifically Congressman Zelden when it comes to the EPA.
Speaker 5: I realized there's a loyalty test here, but should any
Speaker 5: of these individuals have areas of expertise that pertain to
Speaker 5: the agencies they're running.
Speaker 7: You know, it's interesting because one of the things we
Speaker 7: heard from the transition team was they were going to
Speaker 7: prioritize loyalty and competency, And of course there is no
Speaker 7: question Lee Zelden is com in a number of ways.
Speaker 7: He simply though, does not have a background in this area,
Speaker 7: but he is appointed, as we understand from what they
Speaker 7: have said, because he aligns He's not only loyal, but
Speaker 7: he aligns with Donald Trump on what Donald Trump would
Speaker 7: like most of all to happen with the EPA, which
Speaker 7: is moving towards deregulation and also rolling back importantly fossil
Speaker 7: fuel regulations, and so to your and Cayley's point, in
Speaker 7: this way, he definitely lines up with where Trump and
Speaker 7: the Republican Party are headed on this. He just doesn't
Speaker 7: come with the expertise we might normally expect in an
Speaker 7: EPA director. But of course Donald Trump doesn't do anything
Speaker 7: you'd expect, So from that perspective, it's with his appointments
Speaker 7: by and large.
Speaker 3: Well so cheap. And as we look at the list
Speaker 3: of names we know to this point, whether they've been
Speaker 3: confirmed by the Trump campaign or just sources are indicating
Speaker 3: that's the way things are going. Are there any that
Speaker 3: concern you with a lack of expertise or compet and
Speaker 3: see in the required area, or do you think by
Speaker 3: and large the transition shaping up okay?
Speaker 8: So far? I think by and large and shaping up okay.
Speaker 8: And I would use Congressman Zelden as an example. I
Speaker 8: would argue that he does have some environmental bona fides.
Speaker 8: His district, one of the few in the country that
Speaker 8: you have to take a ferry to get to election districts,
Speaker 8: has all sorts of environmental issues, from brownfields to New
Speaker 8: York's governor hocals Wind, whole wind platform is based off
Speaker 8: the south shore. There's the fishing industry. Again, a lot
Speaker 8: of environmental cleanup fights over the Easthampton Airport. That's you know,
Speaker 8: critics are saying are noise pollution from helicopters and poisoning
Speaker 8: the ground out there. So I would argue that his district,
Speaker 8: who goes from rural to beach to farms to urban,
Speaker 8: gives him a pretty good platform, more so than other
Speaker 8: congress people from Congress across the country for the EPA.
Speaker 8: And again, I think it is a business type type
Speaker 8: of appointment and he's gonna he's going to strike the
Speaker 8: right balance between the environment and business.
Speaker 5: Well, how does that work, Genie, How do you find
Speaker 5: or unleash in his words, economic prosperity through the EPA?
Speaker 2: Is that the charge of that agency.
Speaker 7: It is Donald Trump's charge to the agency. And he,
Speaker 7: you know, to his credit he has been very very
Speaker 7: clear about this, is that he feels that this is
Speaker 7: what has been missing in the United States economically over
Speaker 7: the last four years. Certainly he felt like he was
Speaker 7: moving in this direction. So he has charged Lee Zelden,
Speaker 7: And I would suspect everyone else who he is appointing
Speaker 7: that he is going to be focused in addition to immigration,
Speaker 7: number one on energy and the issue of drilling and
Speaker 7: fossil fuel rains large for him. You know, whether he
Speaker 7: can see that through is a whole nother question. But
Speaker 7: this is what he promised during the campaign very clearly,
Speaker 7: and now we have an appointment with somebody who has
Speaker 7: said that they can deliver on that well.
Speaker 3: So as we consider the appointments that aren't necessarily confirmed yet,
Speaker 3: including that of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida being tapped
Speaker 3: for Secretary of State, I do wonder your feelings as
Speaker 3: a Democrat on this. Could Donald Trump have made a
Speaker 3: poor choice? Is that actually one that Democrats might find
Speaker 3: some comfort in when they're considering the future of foreign
Speaker 3: policy of the US.
Speaker 7: You know, I think so far his appointments have not
Speaker 7: been particularly unexpected, nor has he made a choice that
Speaker 7: I think Democrats will line up in droves to object to.
Speaker 7: You know, it is interesting to see the talk of
Speaker 7: Marco Rubio we don't know yet. Along with Mike Waltz
Speaker 7: suggests that Susie Wiles is playing a big role here.
Speaker 7: These are two people she has worked closely with, and
Speaker 7: of course Rubio, we don't have confirmed yet.
Speaker 10: You know.
Speaker 7: Also important to remember, as he continues, at least so far,
Speaker 7: to take some folks out of the House, is that
Speaker 7: while Donald Trump won a big victory on Tuesday, he
Speaker 7: comes with arguably one of the narrow whist House majorities
Speaker 7: for Republicans in history. So you know, he's got to
Speaker 7: be very careful there. We heard Mike Johnson say that
Speaker 7: on the steps today. But by and large, I think
Speaker 7: these are people who know Washington and the ones that
Speaker 7: are going to go up for confirmation will likely pass
Speaker 7: given the majority in the Senate. And of course Donald
Speaker 7: Trump has said we need to make appointments during recess
Speaker 7: if they have a danger of not passing. So he's already,
Speaker 7: you know, suggesting that if we can't get him through confirmation,
Speaker 7: we got to do recess appointments. So he is playing
Speaker 7: those odds already.
Speaker 5: Well, we're talking today about the start of the lame
Speaker 5: duck session, the return of lawmakers to Washington, and there's
Speaker 5: a loud conversation happening in progressive quarters here Chapin about
Speaker 5: Trump proofing, as some call it, government and some of
Speaker 5: the specific examples having to do with legislation passed by
Speaker 5: Joe Biden and Democratic lawmakers fromle A. Gianpaul, the outgoing
Speaker 5: chair of the Progressive Caucus, says, a lot of things
Speaker 5: can be undone, but it can take longer to undo
Speaker 5: them and would force a priority from them on what
Speaker 5: they want to focus on. They're preparing a raft, as
Speaker 5: we read today in axios of executive orders that President
Speaker 5: Biden could issue on his way out here to protect
Speaker 5: quote existing structures such as shielding career civil servants and
Speaker 5: Justice Department officials. Can this come together in the short
Speaker 5: amount of time they have.
Speaker 8: We'll never say never, But I just don't, you know,
Speaker 8: I don't think the Progressive Caucus really was wagging the
Speaker 8: dog with the Biden administration from the get go. So
Speaker 8: I don't know that at the end Joe Biden's going
Speaker 8: to have that kind of appetite, particularly since some on
Speaker 8: the right of the aisle have seen him, we have
Speaker 8: interpreted him and sort of maybe enjoying this moment a
Speaker 8: little bit too much after Harris has lost. So I
Speaker 8: don't know that there's an appetite for Joe Biden to
Speaker 8: sort of, you know, do a flurry of executive orders
Speaker 8: that it's going to make for difficult President Trump, incoming president,
Speaker 8: to get his agenda done. I do see some compromise
Speaker 8: there where, maybe there's a few things that he does,
Speaker 8: but I don't see any sort of major or wholesale
Speaker 8: operation from Joe Biden to trip up the the incoming administration.
Speaker 8: I don't think that's gonna happen.
Speaker 3: Well, And as we consider what the next administration is
Speaker 3: going to look like, we've been talking a lot about
Speaker 3: how Donald Trump is likely cheap and going to have
Speaker 3: the cooperation of Congress with the Senate at least, and
Speaker 3: very likely a narrow majority in the House. But we
Speaker 3: saw how difficult that narrow majority has been over the
Speaker 3: last two years for the Republican Conference to navigate. Do
Speaker 3: you have confidence it will be different this time around?
Speaker 3: And if it's different, what exactly about it will be?
Speaker 8: Well, I think there's going to be fewer members who
Speaker 8: are willing to come up an entire piece of legislation
Speaker 8: along parties in our ideological alliance. Right, I think Trump
Speaker 8: won in a overwhelming or Republicans led by Trump one
Speaker 8: in an overwhelming way on election Day, and I think
Speaker 8: Republicans within the Caucus may grumble about getting some more
Speaker 8: stuff for their district or something like that, or shaping
Speaker 8: bills and shaping the policy, but I think you're going
Speaker 8: to see that he's going to be able to do
Speaker 8: the things that he needs to do even with a
Speaker 8: small majority in the House.
Speaker 3: All right, Shape and Fay, thank you so much for
Speaker 3: joining US Republican Strategists of course and founder of Lighthouse
Speaker 3: Public Affairs, together with Jeanie Shansey, no Democratic strategist and
Speaker 3: senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of
Speaker 3: the Presidency in Congress our political panel today. Thank you
Speaker 3: both so much. And we mentioned Joe that we're still
Speaker 3: awaiting firm confirmation of some of these picks, including Secretary
Speaker 3: of State selection potentially of Senator Marco Rubio. Another one
Speaker 3: we should mention as well, that's been reported by other outlets,
Speaker 3: not as here a Bloomberg as Christy No, that's right
Speaker 3: for the Department of Homeland.
Speaker 5: Security, according to CNN. I'd be very curious to see
Speaker 5: an official statement on this. He was leading a lot
Speaker 5: of newscasts last evening. But it does remind us that
Speaker 5: they have a long list of names for a lot
Speaker 5: lot of jobs and they're not waiting around to start
Speaker 5: matching names with positions here, even if they're floating balloons.
Speaker 5: We're going to know pretty quickly who's going to be
Speaker 5: in a lot of these positions to fill out the cabinet.
Speaker 3: Remarkable to think election day was just a week ago.
Speaker 5: We could go today today, imagine where we were.
Speaker 3: Then has already changed since then. Of course, we've had
Speaker 3: that covered for you. We will continue to do so
Speaker 3: with much more still ahead here on Balance of Power
Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play
Speaker 2: and then Proudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on
Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live
Speaker 2: on YouTube.
Speaker 5: Breaking news from the Trump camp with another appointment here
Speaker 5: we did not see coming today. As we keep trained
Speaker 5: on openings on the cabinet, it's an ambassadorial role that
Speaker 5: emerges with a statement from the former president now the
Speaker 5: President elect, please to announce that the former governor of Arkansas,
Speaker 5: Mike Huckabee, will be the next US Ambassador to Israel.
Speaker 5: Donald Trump writes, Mike has been a great public servant, governor,
Speaker 5: leader in faith for many years. He loves Israel and
Speaker 5: the people of Israel, and likewise the people of Israel
Speaker 5: love him. This just emerging, Kayley, a day after at
Speaker 5: least Stephonic was tapped to be US ambassador to the UN.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Of course, Congresswoman Stephanic has been a vocal proponent of
Speaker 3: pro Israel policy. I think many would remember her questioning
Speaker 3: the presidents of some of the universities that we're dealing
Speaker 3: with protests over this past year. So you certainly are
Speaker 3: seeing a very pro Israel batch of people selected to
Speaker 3: help represent the United States, and frankly Israel's interest in
Speaker 3: some of these bodies. Trump in that statement saying that
Speaker 3: Mike will work tirelessly to bring about peace in the
Speaker 3: Middle East, which does once again raise the question how
Speaker 3: the Trump administration will be approaching bringing an end to
Speaker 3: this war, and not only this war, but others as well,
Speaker 3: including the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting as well to learn this the same
Speaker 5: day that Axios reports Ron Dermer was at mar A
Speaker 5: Lago to meet with Donald Trump. So this is taking
Speaker 5: shape as we speak, not just domestically, but when it
Speaker 5: comes to foreign policy and some of the questions that
Speaker 5: we see around.
Speaker 2: The House of Representatives.
Speaker 5: You mentioned Congresswoman Staphonic potentially making Mike Johnson's job a
Speaker 5: little bit more difficult with what appears to be it's
Speaker 5: not yet official, but a relatively thin Republican majority, much
Speaker 5: like he's had since he got the gavel.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what has made policy making and legislating on
Speaker 3: the Hill so difficult over the course of the one
Speaker 3: hundred and eighteenth Congress is there just wasn't really much
Speaker 3: room for error. That certainly could be so we still, have,
Speaker 3: of course more votes to be counted in a number
Speaker 3: of states, including California. But Republicans at this point just
Speaker 3: need to pick one of seven remaining toss ups. If
Speaker 3: they pick that up, that would get them to the
Speaker 3: two hundred and eighteen required to get the majority. The
Speaker 3: question is how much wiggle room are they going to have.
Speaker 3: This is something that Speaker Johnson was talking about on
Speaker 3: Capitol Hill. As lawmakers retire to Washington today.
Speaker 11: Every single vote will count because if someone gets ill
Speaker 11: or has a car accident or a late flight on
Speaker 11: their plane, that it affects the votes on the floor.
Speaker 11: So I think he and the administration are well in
Speaker 11: tuned to that. I don't expect that we will have
Speaker 11: more members leaving, but I'll leave that up to him.
Speaker 3: So we want to go now to Capitol Hill, where
Speaker 3: we're joined by Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick here on Bloomberg
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Jack, welcome back. I'm sure it feels
Speaker 3: good to be back after the long election and campaign recess.
Speaker 3: Certainly there is no time to waste for Republicans on
Speaker 3: the Hill, especially who have leadership elections tomorrow. Perhaps there's
Speaker 3: not going to be any drama. Speaker Johnson does seem
Speaker 3: set to keep his job assuming the majority is retained.
Speaker 3: But what's going to happen in that Senate vote?
Speaker 10: Yeah, the Senate is going to be a lot more
Speaker 10: interesting between the three members running for it, John Thune,
Speaker 10: Cornyn and Rick Scott. You may have seen Rick Scott
Speaker 10: responding to Trump's demand for recess appointments to rapidly get
Speaker 10: people confirmed without having to go through the traditional Senate
Speaker 10: confirmation process. Scott said he one hundred percent agrees there
Speaker 10: may be a bit of a debate over the Senate's
Speaker 10: role to advise and consent on that and as members
Speaker 10: come back into the capital today, we'll probably get a
Speaker 10: little more a little more feedback on the direction of
Speaker 10: that race. But you're right that that Senate Republican leadership
Speaker 10: race appears to be much closer than anything in the House.
Speaker 10: The Speaker looks safe compared to I mean, really, it
Speaker 10: was kind of considered a given that if they keep
Speaker 10: the majority, Speaker Johnson is in a pretty good spot.
Speaker 10: So the intrigue is more on the Senate side at
Speaker 10: this point.
Speaker 5: So what's on the agenda for the lame duck here, Jack?
Speaker 5: We know that lawmakers have to fund the government beyond
Speaker 5: December twentieth, and you could probably add some color to that.
Speaker 5: We're hearing maybe March now they kick the canon of
Speaker 5: spring to buy some time. There's also the NDAA. There's
Speaker 5: also the matter of a farm bill, and I wonder
Speaker 5: if you see that getting any love, or if they
Speaker 5: kick the can on the farm bill as well.
Speaker 10: So the NDAA probably is the top priority for what
Speaker 10: they want to actually fully accomplish by the end of
Speaker 10: the calendar year. That tends to be a very high priority.
Speaker 10: The farm bill has been moving slowly. I know they're
Speaker 10: trying to get things together on that. There's been some
Speaker 10: discussion about whether they could, if that gets delayed, if
Speaker 10: they could take portions of the farm bill and actually
Speaker 10: put it into a reconciliation package, which would be alongside
Speaker 10: a tax bill later next year. So we have a
Speaker 10: little more a little more work to do to figure
Speaker 10: out exactly what's going to happen with farm bill. The
Speaker 10: last I've heard on government funding as of yesterday, according
Speaker 10: to a House Republican leadership aid, the expectation is they're
Speaker 10: going to kick the can with a stopgap into March.
Speaker 10: That's important, not just because of the prospect of delaying
Speaker 10: government funding, but if they give the incoming Trump administration
Speaker 10: a deadline early on to avoid a shutdown, that could
Speaker 10: very well interfere with that major tax bill. It could
Speaker 10: interfere with the process of getting cabinet appointees confirmed by
Speaker 10: the Senate. So it would be a big risk for
Speaker 10: Republicans to try to set up a shutdown fight that
Speaker 10: early in a presidential administration. But that is what we've
Speaker 10: heard is the expectation, at least on the House side
Speaker 10: at this point.
Speaker 5: Fascinating. As always, it's great to have you back on
Speaker 5: the Hill. Jack Fitzpatrick, reporting for Bloomberg. Government will be
Speaker 5: spending a lot more time with Jack as we get
Speaker 5: into that appropriations process in the stopgap funding bill that
Speaker 5: he mentions. But since we're talking about the farm bill
Speaker 5: among other matters, we're pointed directly to an important conversation
Speaker 5: with Matt Carston's the CEO of landis a farming collaborative
Speaker 5: that will be impacted by policy here in Washington and Kayley.
Speaker 5: It's one of the opportunities that we love to take
Speaker 5: to leave the bubble here and talk to a stakeholder
Speaker 5: that will be impacted here beyond politicos in Washington. Matt, welcome,
Speaker 5: It's great to have you with us on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 5: and Radio. Donald Trump says the word tariff is his
Speaker 5: favorite word in the dictionary. He calls it beautiful. How
Speaker 5: do farmers feel about it?
Speaker 12: Well, you know, that's a complicated topic, as we all know.
Speaker 12: You know, agriculture really relies partially on exports and making
Speaker 12: sure that the goods are farmers produced, whether it's protein, grains,
Speaker 12: has an international market. So what I would say is,
Speaker 12: you know, although there's a lot of complexity to a tariff,
Speaker 12: what we can always hope is that the farmer has
Speaker 12: a seat at that table. The voice of agriculture is
Speaker 12: being heard because you know, they are the ones that
Speaker 12: with rural that helped elect him the first time, helped
Speaker 12: on this reelecttion, and they need to be at that
Speaker 12: table to make sure that we're finding the right balance
Speaker 12: to them whatever we're trying to solve with the tariff
Speaker 12: and what it can mean for agriculture.
Speaker 3: So what would you say, if at that table, about
Speaker 3: what that appropriate balance is and who we perhaps need
Speaker 3: to be most careful about targeting with terrifts for fear
Speaker 3: of retaliation on the agriculture industry in the United States.
Speaker 12: Well, we've already seen an adjustment right now with what
Speaker 12: we used to be able to do or we're exporting
Speaker 12: to countries like China. That's already down quite a bit,
Speaker 12: and it's really affected our farmers in the Midwest. And
Speaker 12: this is several administrations all the way through where we're
Speaker 12: at and where we might be going. So I think
Speaker 12: the point that has to be made is we need
Speaker 12: to make sure the cause and effect has truly been
Speaker 12: balanced with what agriculture really needs, and the cause and
Speaker 12: effect of that, we've seen margins come down substantially for
Speaker 12: our farmers. Now, the good news is some expenses went
Speaker 12: down for them and the way they controlled their costs,
Speaker 12: and then we also had some good yields across the
Speaker 12: Midwest and across most of the country here. But in
Speaker 12: the reverse side, we've got to make sure that both
Speaker 12: sides are being understood, whatever the solve is and whatever
Speaker 12: the cause and effect is to agriculture, because those international
Speaker 12: markets are absolutely critical for companies like Lands and Conduit
Speaker 12: that are trying to move those goods out of our state,
Speaker 12: out of the Midwest and get them into a position
Speaker 12: to go into a global market. And when you lose
Speaker 12: a volume like we have the China, that has a
Speaker 12: long term ripple effect and it's hard to recover from.
Speaker 5: Well, how much have we lost? How much have farmers
Speaker 5: lost when it comes to exports to China? Set the
Speaker 5: baseline for us here, Matt, before we even begin the
Speaker 5: conversation about additional tariffs.
Speaker 12: Yeah, I think you know, those numbers are always moving,
Speaker 12: and I haven't seen the latest, but I would say
Speaker 12: it's probably safe to say we're nearing around half of
Speaker 12: the exports that we used to see. I think there
Speaker 12: was an announcement today or earlier this week on Monday
Speaker 12: around a new port that now South America opened up,
Speaker 12: particularly for Brazil out of Peru. That China is very
Speaker 12: excited about taking imports from Brazil or Peru, the South
Speaker 12: American market as a whole, and moving it over to China.
Speaker 12: So there continues to be additional pressures that get put on.
Speaker 12: So it's not even where we're at, but what are
Speaker 12: other opportunities that some kind of a conflict could create
Speaker 12: that that now there's another alternative that we just weren't
Speaker 12: used to, and that port will have an additional effect
Speaker 12: not just on what maybe happens in South America to China,
Speaker 12: but other parts of the world as well. So you know,
Speaker 12: today we're down quite a bit, and the future, particularly
Speaker 12: when you look at corn, looks a little more daunting
Speaker 12: as Brazil, particularly in South America, has a wider path
Speaker 12: of what they can do with increased yields and more
Speaker 12: acres that they're farming than ever before.
Speaker 3: Well, Matt, as you talk about pressures, I wonder as
Speaker 3: well about cost pressures and inflation. I'm assuming this industry
Speaker 3: has been grappling with us over the last several years,
Speaker 3: as many have, and perhaps that's one of the reasons
Speaker 3: why this election resulted the way that it did. We
Speaker 3: of course, have a lot of conversation about the way
Speaker 3: in which tariffs could lead to higher inflation. What would
Speaker 3: it mean for the agriculture industry not only to have
Speaker 3: the potential retaliatory impact on the way in which the
Speaker 3: goods are being exported, but also the inflationary impact on
Speaker 3: if a tariff is placed on everything else, including equipment
Speaker 3: that they need need to actually to actually get those yields,
Speaker 3: to farm that land, to do everything they need to do.
Speaker 12: Yeah, it all has an effect, right, And for our
Speaker 12: farmers that are engaged in this every day, they're balancing
Speaker 12: volume with price, with their expenses. And I thought the
Speaker 12: farmers really have done a great job in twenty four
Speaker 12: you know, luckily mother nature cooperated and we got good
Speaker 12: yields out of out of what we needed in most
Speaker 12: parts of the US, not all, but most. They did
Speaker 12: a nice job as farmers really pulling back on equipment
Speaker 12: needs and trying to reduce the expense on that side.
Speaker 12: So when you add the volume and the expense reduction
Speaker 12: that the farmers were able to capitalize on, they're going
Speaker 12: to be able to get out of twenty four in
Speaker 12: a good position, But nobody knows what twenty five really brings.
Speaker 12: And that's the uncertainty that exists here, is what will
Speaker 12: twenty five bring from from a cost standpoint, from a
Speaker 12: mother nature standpoint, And then you look at just interest line.
Speaker 12: Some farmers have never even seen this kind of an
Speaker 12: interest level or cost on their P and L and
Speaker 12: those are things that they're just adding additional pressure to
Speaker 12: the mix. So anything right now that adds additional pressure
Speaker 12: or farmers is going to have a big impact on them,
Speaker 12: because we've taken a lot of those steps out in
Speaker 12: twenty three and twenty four, and now we've got to
Speaker 12: look to the future and continue to try to find
Speaker 12: some kind of win here. And that's where when you
Speaker 12: come back to exports and making sure our farmers have
Speaker 12: their goods that could go elsewhere, that's an important step.
Speaker 5: Well, math this is an incoming administration that has promised
Speaker 5: mass deportation and has also suggested that workplace raids might
Speaker 5: come with that. I know that that remains a question
Speaker 5: at this point, and we may need to learn more
Speaker 5: about it from Donald Trump's immigration officials. But to the
Speaker 5: extent to which farmers are relying upon migrant workers. What
Speaker 5: impact would a mass deportation have on your industry.
Speaker 12: Well, it definitely has an impact as I think about
Speaker 12: the Midwest and just across all of agriculture. Actually, it's
Speaker 12: still a very human intensity business that we're in, and
Speaker 12: I don't know if that's different from a lot of industries,
Speaker 12: but agriculture for sure is no exception of that. And
Speaker 12: as rural populations continue to fall in the amount that's
Speaker 12: out there, it makes it even more challenging. Now in
Speaker 12: the Midwest, H two A workers have been a big
Speaker 12: part and a big part of the solution to how
Speaker 12: we've dealt with that and will continue to be as
Speaker 12: we go forward there. But there are other parts, you know,
Speaker 12: particularly in the western part of the United States in Southeast,
Speaker 12: where it's not just H two A, but others that
Speaker 12: they reach into. So again, I think getting that farmer's
Speaker 12: voice at the table will be essential because as rural
Speaker 12: continues to slide in its population and the workload is
Speaker 12: still there for manual or just humans in general, we've
Speaker 12: got to make sure that there's a balance there and
Speaker 12: that that AG's voice is heard and with hopefully as
Speaker 12: soon appointment of USDA, that that person will have the
Speaker 12: ag background and have the sort of speak dirt on
Speaker 12: their hands to be able to reflect that and find
Speaker 12: the right balance that that agg has that voice at
Speaker 12: the table and find that that that true balance all right.
Speaker 3: Matt Carson, CEO of Landis with a focus on the
Speaker 3: agricultural industry, thank you so much for being here with us,
Speaker 3: and he's reminding us show that we still have many
Speaker 3: cabinet picks yet to learn about, including the Secretary of
Speaker 3: agric Culture and others as well, even as we had
Speaker 3: some confirmed just.
Speaker 10: In this appear.
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
Speaker 5: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 5: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
Speaker 5: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at
Speaker 5: Bloomberg dot com.