1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play, 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 2: and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 5 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 6 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 2: live on. 7 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 3: YouTube alongside Joe Matthew. Here in Washington, where we are 8 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 3: keeping track of the transition, which seems to be picking 9 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 3: up its pace heres. Donald Trump has been announcing more 10 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 3: and more people who will either serve in his cabinet 11 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 3: or be close to him during his second administration, some 12 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 3: of course being tapped for positions that don't require Senate 13 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 3: approval and confirmation. But the cabinet is going to be 14 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 3: especially interesting here as we consider who the big players 15 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,319 Speaker 3: will be around the table with him, and especially as 16 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 3: we consider the Treasury secretary potentially knowing that someone actually 17 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 3: took themselves out of the running today, Paulson, in a 18 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 3: statement said it would be too financially complicated, given his 19 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 3: complex financial obligations, for her to serve in this role, 20 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 3: which does seem to be shortening the list, and Bloomberg 21 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 3: is reporting today our colleague Seleia mosen and Jenny Leonard 22 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 3: that topping the list potentially at least to some Trump 23 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 3: advisors who are pushing for this, would be Scott Bessett 24 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 3: of Key Square Group, the Macro Hedge Fund. Remember we 25 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 3: spoke with him on this program before the election. Take 26 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 3: a listen to part of our conversation. 27 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 4: He has a deep understanding of financial markets as opposed 28 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 4: to most politicians, so he wants to be involved in 29 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 4: the conversation. He has very well formed opinions, have a 30 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 4: lot of private sector friends, so he just wants to 31 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 4: be a voice. 32 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 5: Sorry to start our conversation with Bloomberg senior Washington correspondent 33 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,960 Speaker 5: Seleia Mosen, of course, host of the Big Take DC podcast, 34 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 5: something we talk about with Seleia pretty often here. She's 35 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 5: also spearheading our coverage of the transition in time to 36 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 5: name name, Seleia, is great to see you. Thank you 37 00:01:57,920 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 5: for joining us today. Did we just see the next 38 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 5: trad free secretary there? 39 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 6: Maybe we did. According to our reporting here at Boomberg, 40 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 6: it looks like most of Trump's key advisors are supporting 41 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 6: Scott Bessett for the job of tragery Secretary, but Trump 42 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 6: himself has not weighed in. He has not made a decision. 43 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 3: Well, but he has heralded best repeatedly on the campaign trail, 44 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 3: calling him out at rallies that kind of thing. We 45 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 3: understand that these two are actually quite close. So I 46 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 3: wonder why this is taking so long, given Trump has 47 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 3: already announced many others. If it were obvious that it 48 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 3: would be best, and wouldn't we know that already? 49 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:31,399 Speaker 6: I guess, So, I mean, we all want to know desperately. 50 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 6: Obviously we are bloomberg. But at the same time, Marco 51 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 6: Rubio for Secretary of State that has not been announced, right, 52 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 6: so we're still waiting on a couple that have been floated, saft, floated, 53 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 6: air tested, who knows, whatever you want to call it, 54 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 6: but they have not been formally announced. And who knows 55 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 6: how things are panning out at mar A Lago, whether 56 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 6: they want to float names, see what happens, or call 57 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 6: people down for interviews, or if advisors are just getting 58 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,119 Speaker 6: ready for if Donald Trump president elect? Donald Trump says, 59 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 6: who do you think I want for this? We have 60 00:02:58,320 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 6: our ducks in a row. 61 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 5: We know what we want to tell you, moving pretty 62 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:03,520 Speaker 5: quickly this time. I was recalling in our last hour 63 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 5: the Apprentice style walk we saw in twenty sixteen, everybody 64 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 5: had to go on the lobby of Trump Tower, awkwardly, 65 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 5: wait for the elevator, choose to say something to a 66 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 5: reporter if they wanted to, and then go do the 67 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 5: audition or the interview. We're rolling them out pretty quickly 68 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,640 Speaker 5: this time, a much more concerted and deliberate process. 69 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 6: It feels like, well, so far, it's pretty organized, I mean, 70 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,960 Speaker 6: and that's a reflection of how the campaign itself was 71 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 6: much more organized compared to Trump's efforts in twenty sixteen. 72 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 6: And in twenty twenty. We have the first female White 73 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 6: House Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, who was overseeing much 74 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 6: of his campaign, and she has really kept things organized, 75 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 6: including the number of leaks. 76 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 7: Well. 77 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 3: So as we consider the names that have been whether 78 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: leaked out or actually outright confirmed, they do include and 79 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 3: you mentioned Marco Rubio, which hasn't been confirmed by the 80 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 3: President elect yet. They include a lot of current members 81 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 3: of the House or the Senate Elistaphonic Tap for U 82 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 3: n Ambassador Congressman Mike Waltz of Florida for a national 83 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 3: security and then of course Senator Rubio. Should we expect 84 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 3: more of the picks that are announced going forward to 85 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 3: come from Congress, or is he not going to want 86 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 3: to pull too much out of what looks like it 87 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 3: could be a very narrow majority in the House at least. 88 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 6: Look just speculation on my part looking at the information 89 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 6: that we have in front of us. If there's a 90 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 6: narrow majority in the Senate for Republicans, they're only going 91 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 6: to want to pull senators from the chamber if they 92 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 6: can reliably replace that Senate seat with a Republican. So 93 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 6: I think that there is an air of caution of 94 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 6: how many to pull. We don't know what the margin 95 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 6: is for the House side, but we did see the 96 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,159 Speaker 6: National Security Advisor is coming from the House, so maybe 97 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 6: there's a little bit more wiggle room. 98 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:43,279 Speaker 5: There is there a hope that this cabinet stays together 99 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 5: longer than the original one. It does seem like there 100 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 5: is some consistency here in bringing in loyalists, also checking 101 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 5: the box es central casting that we know Donald Trump 102 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 5: likes to check, but not to have the revolving door 103 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 5: that they experienced the first time around. 104 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, it would be great for all of us. There's 105 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 6: not the same revolving door. It'd be great for markets 106 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 6: and economic policy. Last time around, we saw the Treasury secretary. 107 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 6: Then it was Stephen Mnushan. He stuck by for four years. 108 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 6: That gave a lot of stability to economic policy. Let's 109 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 6: see if we get the same thing I mean this 110 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 6: time around, if we can have a Secretary of State 111 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:18,479 Speaker 6: who stays. There was high turnover in that slot in 112 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 6: White House chief of Staff. Now, if we're looking at 113 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 6: how things have run so far in twenty twenty four 114 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 6: with Susie Wiles, maybe we will see more stability. 115 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: Well, and Susie Wiles, as I alluded to you earlier, 116 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 3: one of the folks that isn't going to require confirmation 117 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,240 Speaker 3: from the Senate, just like Steven Miller, who we understand 118 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 3: has been tapped for Deputy chief of Staff for policy, 119 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 3: but this is really just putting him in a position 120 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 3: to help influence policy, especially when it comes to the 121 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 3: border and immigration. 122 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 6: Absolutely all of these jobs come with great, big titles. 123 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 6: A lot of them do have firm job descriptions, but 124 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 6: a lot of it, especially the roles that don't need 125 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 6: Senate confirmation, like White House Chief of Staff or Deputy 126 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 6: chief of staff, there's a lot of leeway on what 127 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 6: kind of job description you want to have. What you 128 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 6: go in with and what your boss ultimately gives you. 129 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 3: All right, Bloomberg, salamos, and you can check out all 130 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 3: of her reporting on this transition on the Bloomberg terminal 131 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 3: or online. Thank you so much for joining us. And 132 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 3: it's remarkable to consider here Joe, as Donald Trump does, 133 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 3: has alluded to the fact that he sees himself as 134 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,799 Speaker 3: coming to this office a second time around with even 135 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 3: more of a mandate than he perhaps had before, having one, 136 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 3: of course, the popular vote, and also having at least 137 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 3: the Senate backing him in addition, potentially to the House 138 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:31,039 Speaker 3: once we know whether or not that's called, which just 139 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 3: speaks to the fact that while we expected this race 140 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 3: to be close, and in a lot of ways it was, 141 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 3: it also brought with it a full red sweep. 142 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 5: Well that's for sure, a red sweep that we can 143 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,480 Speaker 5: now quantify almost entirely. We're still waiting for the House, 144 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,360 Speaker 5: and they could be as just as little as one 145 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 5: race away. As a matter of fact, with the seven 146 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 5: contested seats left Republicans need to turn one, we actually 147 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 5: have more like fifteen that have yet to be called. 148 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 5: But that's how razor thin things are in the House, 149 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 5: and when Donald Trump is up there, to maris, he's 150 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 5: going to be talking about the leadership battles that we're 151 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 5: about to endure. The vote set for Wednesday. Mike Johnson 152 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 5: probably comfortable where he is. The question is who replaces 153 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 5: Mitch McConnell, yep. 154 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 3: Is it going to be a John John Thuner, John 155 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 3: Cornyn Are Perhaps could it be the dark Corse candidate 156 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 3: Rick Scott that it does seem those close to Trump 157 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 3: are now pushing for. We're going to have to wait 158 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 3: to find out, but we didn't want to wait. To 159 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 3: touch back in with Andre Gillespie of Emory University. She, 160 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 3: of course, is an associate professor in the Department of 161 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 3: Political Science. We were checking in with her frequently throughout 162 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 3: this election cycle and want to check back with her 163 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 3: now as we continue to do the post mortem here. Andre, 164 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 3: welcome back to Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 165 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 3: While Joe is right to point out, we don't for 166 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 3: sure know that the House is going to be still 167 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 3: a Republican majority, and we still got to get a 168 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 3: few more race calls, but it is the prevailing wisdom 169 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 3: that Republicans will be able to keep a narrow hold 170 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 3: on that chamber. So I wonder what that says to 171 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 3: you that it wasn't just the presidency but the entirety 172 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 3: of Congress potentially that swept one way here. 173 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 1: Well, I mean, you know, this is clearly still a 174 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: divided country. So if we're looking at the margins not 175 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: just by which President Trump won and the margins in 176 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: the swing states, but we're also looking at what the 177 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: legislative majorities look like in both the House and the Senate. 178 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: And I'm certainly anticipating that Republicans are going to retain 179 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: control of the House. We're still looking at very narrow 180 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: legislative majorities, which suggests one our country is still polarized. 181 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: And what it also suggests is that the governing coalition 182 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: is going to have to maintain discipline in order to 183 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: be effective. And if they cannot maintain discipline, there are 184 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 1: going to be ways for Congress to still be at 185 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 1: a standstill. So, you know, you can't just blame it 186 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: on having the president of one party and having one 187 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 1: chamber in Congress being controlled by the other for there 188 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: to be a legislative stalemate. There's still the possibility for that. 189 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:50,199 Speaker 1: It's really going to come down to management and It's 190 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 1: going to come down to the ideas and the policies 191 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: that are being presented well. 192 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 5: As Republicans choose their leaders this week, and I don't 193 00:08:57,840 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 5: think we'll have too many surprises, if any, on the 194 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 5: House side. And I wonder what the strategy conversation is 195 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 5: today between Hakim Jeffreys, Pete Aguilar, and Catherine Clark. The 196 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 5: Democratic leadership in the House remains in the minority. What's 197 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 5: their plan. 198 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: I think what they may be considering is how much 199 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 1: to push back and win, to fight their battles. You know, 200 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,559 Speaker 1: Donald Trump certainly has a mandate. He has a bigger 201 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: mandate because he won the popular vote and not just 202 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: the electoral college in this election. But again it's a 203 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: narrow mandate. And I think what people, what Democrats may 204 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: decide to do is to stand back and let Democrats 205 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: and let Republicans govern, and let's see if the ideas 206 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 1: actually hold merit, if they can get through Congress and 207 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: get signed by the President, and also when implemented, if 208 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,319 Speaker 1: they actually do work for the American people, if they 209 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,599 Speaker 1: are perceived as being antagonistic or opposing all things and 210 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: not just voting against it, which I expect Democrats to do, 211 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 1: but mostiferously coming out and attacking every thing. It might 212 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: actually take attention away from the merits of the policies themselves. 213 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 1: And if these policies prove to not actually be good 214 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:13,640 Speaker 1: for the American people, then the Democrats have their talking points. See, 215 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: we let Republicans reign and govern in an unfettered kind 216 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,319 Speaker 1: of way, and the policies that they put forward were 217 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,959 Speaker 1: disastrous for the American people. So I suspect that they're 218 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 1: trying to figure out when is the right time to 219 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: push back, especially if it involves preserving institutions, But when 220 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: do they allow bad policies to come forward so that 221 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: the American people can see that those policies might not 222 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: actually be advantageous towards all American people, and including some 223 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: of the people who voted for Donald Trump. I think 224 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:42,560 Speaker 1: that that's probably the direction in which they're headed. 225 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 3: Well, so as we consider those people who voted for 226 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 3: Donald Trump Andrew Obviously nothing is monolithic, but we've spent 227 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:52,960 Speaker 3: a lot of time talking about the swing we saw 228 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 3: toward him in specific demographic groups, including Latinos, some portion 229 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 3: of black men as well. 230 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 4: Well. 231 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 3: It is the Republican Party that seems like it is 232 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 3: attracting more people into a larger tent. One could argue, 233 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 3: I wonder what you make of the fact, though, that 234 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 3: that kind of wider coalition, more multicultural, multiethnic coalition doesn't 235 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 3: necessarily seem to be manifesting itself in the same way. 236 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,199 Speaker 3: As Donald Trump selects those who will be closest to 237 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 3: him as he actually serves as president other than Marco 238 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 3: rubiov that people who have been named so far and 239 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 3: those we understand to be on the short list list, 240 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 3: we're talking about a lot of white people. 241 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: Well, if you go back and you look at what 242 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:36,520 Speaker 1: his cabinet and cabinet equivalent appointments look like. In his 243 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: first term, he had Nikki Haley, and he had Ben Carson. 244 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: And then if we look at the number of women, 245 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: we also saw that compared to the Obama Bush Clinton administrations, 246 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 1: he had far fewer women in positions of leaderships. So 247 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: you look at people like Mickey Haley or Kirsten Nielsen, 248 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 1: among others, who were able to serve lind of a 249 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: command excuse me, in positions of power. He hasn't had 250 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 1: time to announce his full cabinet slight wait to see 251 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:04,240 Speaker 1: what the diversity looks like Marco Rubio is certainly, if 252 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: he is in fact the design need to be Secretary 253 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: of State is certainly a historic choice choice. He would 254 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: be the first Latino in this position, and you know, 255 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 1: I think that it is certainly remarkable in terms of 256 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: descriptive representation. Suzy Wilde's choice is certainly a descriptively representative choice. 257 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: You know, I think we need to give him time 258 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 1: to see how much more diverse it looks. I don't 259 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: think I'm holding my breath to see if it's going 260 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 1: to match the diversity of the Biden or the Obama 261 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 1: or the Clinton administrations, or even the Bush administrations. But 262 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: I think that I'm expecting to see a little bit 263 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: more descriptive diversity amongst the cabinet level picks. 264 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 5: Professor Donald Trump's coming to town tomorrow is going to 265 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,960 Speaker 5: meet with Joe Biden in the Oval Office. I suspect 266 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 5: the optics will be fascinating. Should Joe Biden remind Donald 267 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 5: Trump or the reporters in the room that he was 268 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 5: not afforded such an invitation four years ago. 269 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 1: You know, I don't know what would be gained by 270 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,839 Speaker 1: bringing that up. I mean, and certainly as signed of graciousness. 271 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: I expect that reporters are going to an analyst are 272 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:08,719 Speaker 1: going to make that particular observation. I think this might 273 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: be an opportunity for President Biden to talk about how 274 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: important it is for democracies to have smooth transitions, for 275 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: losers to accept their defeat gracefully, and by just demonstrating 276 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: and modeling that in some ways, it might be an 277 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: indictment of how poorly the last transition. 278 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:31,199 Speaker 3: Was well fair enough, and they have pledged to make 279 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 3: this transition go more smooth smoothly this time around, Odre. Finally, 280 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 3: before we let you go. Of course, the way in 281 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 3: which Donald Trump used his mandate here is one that 282 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 3: could be potentially much more solid and broader, considering he 283 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,319 Speaker 3: did claim victory in every single swing state that we 284 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 3: were watching, including your state of Georgia, and you know, 285 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 3: Georgia politics incredibly well. And I wonder, as we can 286 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 3: cast forward to four more years from now, even two 287 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 3: more years from now in the mid terms, if this 288 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 3: was decisive, or if Georgia is still going to be 289 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 3: swingy in the elections moving forward, knowing that the Blue Wall, 290 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 3: for example, didn't look so blue this time around. In fact, 291 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 3: it looked very very right. 292 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 1: Well, I think Donald Trump certainly has a mandate, but 293 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: I think that some of his new supporters are conditional supporters, 294 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: and they want to see that he makes good on 295 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: his promises, which probably factored more into the impressions of 296 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: improving the economy and lowering inflation than it did on 297 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: some of the other tenants of his platform. We can 298 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 1: already see his immigration policy taking shape, and I think voters, 299 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: supporters and opponents are going to look to see how 300 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 1: efficacious his policies are. He might be able to maintain 301 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: or broaden that base if he does it, if he 302 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: does a good job, but if he doesn't, he might 303 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: lose some of those supporters. And as far as Georgia 304 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: is concerned, I think it's important to keep in mind 305 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: that Kamala Harris lost the state by a margin of 306 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 1: about two and a half percentage points. That's half the 307 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: margin by which Hillary Clinton lost in twenty twenty. So 308 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:01,280 Speaker 1: while the fundamentals of the state of Georgia still favor Republicans, 309 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: they're favoring them by slimmer margins. And I think twenty 310 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 1: twenty four was kind of evidence of the fact that 311 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: Georgia is still much more competitive than it was twenty 312 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: years ago. 313 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 5: Andred, it's great to have you back. Andre Gillespie, EMRA 314 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 5: University Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science with 315 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 5: us just one week after the election. We'll assemble our 316 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 5: panel next lots to talk about on the transition coming 317 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 5: up with Genie Shanzano and Chapin Fay. Right here on 318 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 5: Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 319 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 320 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,600 Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron 321 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 2: Oo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 322 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 323 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 324 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 3: Welcome back to Balance of Power here on Bloomberg TV 325 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 3: and Radio. I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew with some 326 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 3: breaking official news in just the last few minutes. We 327 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 3: already knew it based off of people familiar with the matter, 328 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 3: but Donald Trump is now making it official. He's named 329 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 3: Florida Congressman Mike Waltz as his national security advisor, releasing 330 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 3: a statement in which he says, in part, Mike has 331 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 3: been a strong champion of my America First foreign policy 332 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 3: agenda and will be a tremendous champion of our pursuit 333 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 3: of peace through strength. Then, Joe, this is of course 334 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 3: just another selection that broadly is painting a picture not 335 00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,800 Speaker 3: only the doubling down on the America First agenda and 336 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 3: those close to it. You can say the same through 337 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 3: the selection of Congressman A lease daphonic to UN ambassador 338 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 3: and Marco Rubio. We understand going to be tapped for 339 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 3: a Secretary of State, but peace through strength, America First 340 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 3: is a common thing. And of course loyal to Trump 341 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 3: tops that list of yeah, big time attributes as well. 342 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 5: This is a retired Special Forces officer, been on the 343 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 5: House since twenty nineteen, and then a fierce critic of 344 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,960 Speaker 5: Joe Biden's foreign policy. And so here we are here 345 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 5: with one more blank to be filled. We got a 346 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:59,760 Speaker 5: bunch of them yesterday as well, several not just Congress 347 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 5: while several from the House of Representatives, where we've got 348 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 5: a very thin majority. Here once again for Speaker Mike Johnson, 349 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 5: but Leez Elden also came up here. Wasn't just a 350 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 5: least staphonic to the UN lee Z Elden to the EPA, 351 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 5: raising a lot of questions about what experience he has 352 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 5: helping to manage the environment. 353 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,920 Speaker 3: Well, the answer to that question is not a ton. 354 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 3: But it does seem that this is at least he 355 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 3: was trying to frame it as more of an economic appointment. Yeah, 356 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 3: anything else. As Donald Trump has talked consistently about helping 357 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,560 Speaker 3: the economy through lowering energy costs and unleashing oil and 358 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 3: gas as well, it makes you wonder what kind of 359 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 3: policy and regulatory frameworks we're going to be getting out 360 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:39,959 Speaker 3: of the EPA A sure industry. 361 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,679 Speaker 5: Yeah, to Kaylee's point, Congressman Zelden spoke to this on 362 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 5: Fox News from an economic perspective. 363 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 8: Here's what he said. 364 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 9: One of the biggest issues for so many Americans was 365 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 9: the economy, and the President was talking about unleashing economic 366 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 9: prosperity through the EPA. We have the ability to pursue 367 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,400 Speaker 9: energy dominance, to be able to make the United States 368 00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 9: the artificial intelligence capital of the world, to bring back 369 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 9: American jobs to the auto industry, and so much more. 370 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 5: Let's assemble our panel for their take on some of 371 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 5: the appointments. The transition is now in full speed and 372 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 5: we have Genie Shanzino, of course, Democratic analyst and Bloomberg 373 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 5: Politics contributor, Senior Democracy fellow with the Center for the 374 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 5: Study of the Presidency in Congress, Jape and Fay Republican 375 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 5: strategist and founder of Lighthouse Public Affairs. Great to see 376 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 5: you both. Genie, what's your thought on not only the 377 00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 5: broad scope of the appointments that we've heard so far, 378 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 5: but specifically Congressman Zelden when it comes to the EPA. 379 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 5: I realized there's a loyalty test here, but should any 380 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 5: of these individuals have areas of expertise that pertain to 381 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 5: the agencies they're running. 382 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 7: You know, it's interesting because one of the things we 383 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 7: heard from the transition team was they were going to 384 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 7: prioritize loyalty and competency, And of course there is no 385 00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 7: question Lee Zelden is com in a number of ways. 386 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 7: He simply though, does not have a background in this area, 387 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 7: but he is appointed, as we understand from what they 388 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,359 Speaker 7: have said, because he aligns He's not only loyal, but 389 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 7: he aligns with Donald Trump on what Donald Trump would 390 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,280 Speaker 7: like most of all to happen with the EPA, which 391 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 7: is moving towards deregulation and also rolling back importantly fossil 392 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,959 Speaker 7: fuel regulations, and so to your and Cayley's point, in 393 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 7: this way, he definitely lines up with where Trump and 394 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 7: the Republican Party are headed on this. He just doesn't 395 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 7: come with the expertise we might normally expect in an 396 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,719 Speaker 7: EPA director. But of course Donald Trump doesn't do anything 397 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 7: you'd expect, So from that perspective, it's with his appointments 398 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 7: by and large. 399 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 3: Well so cheap. And as we look at the list 400 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 3: of names we know to this point, whether they've been 401 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 3: confirmed by the Trump campaign or just sources are indicating 402 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 3: that's the way things are going. Are there any that 403 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 3: concern you with a lack of expertise or compet and 404 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 3: see in the required area, or do you think by 405 00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,879 Speaker 3: and large the transition shaping up okay? 406 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 8: So far? I think by and large and shaping up okay. 407 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,320 Speaker 8: And I would use Congressman Zelden as an example. I 408 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 8: would argue that he does have some environmental bona fides. 409 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 8: His district, one of the few in the country that 410 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 8: you have to take a ferry to get to election districts, 411 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 8: has all sorts of environmental issues, from brownfields to New 412 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 8: York's governor hocals Wind, whole wind platform is based off 413 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 8: the south shore. There's the fishing industry. Again, a lot 414 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,560 Speaker 8: of environmental cleanup fights over the Easthampton Airport. That's you know, 415 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 8: critics are saying are noise pollution from helicopters and poisoning 416 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 8: the ground out there. So I would argue that his district, 417 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 8: who goes from rural to beach to farms to urban, 418 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 8: gives him a pretty good platform, more so than other 419 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 8: congress people from Congress across the country for the EPA. 420 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 8: And again, I think it is a business type type 421 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 8: of appointment and he's gonna he's going to strike the 422 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 8: right balance between the environment and business. 423 00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 5: Well, how does that work, Genie, How do you find 424 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 5: or unleash in his words, economic prosperity through the EPA? 425 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 2: Is that the charge of that agency. 426 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:12,119 Speaker 7: It is Donald Trump's charge to the agency. And he, 427 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 7: you know, to his credit he has been very very 428 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 7: clear about this, is that he feels that this is 429 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,880 Speaker 7: what has been missing in the United States economically over 430 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 7: the last four years. Certainly he felt like he was 431 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 7: moving in this direction. So he has charged Lee Zelden, 432 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 7: And I would suspect everyone else who he is appointing 433 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 7: that he is going to be focused in addition to immigration, 434 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 7: number one on energy and the issue of drilling and 435 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 7: fossil fuel rains large for him. You know, whether he 436 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 7: can see that through is a whole nother question. But 437 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 7: this is what he promised during the campaign very clearly, 438 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 7: and now we have an appointment with somebody who has 439 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:56,120 Speaker 7: said that they can deliver on that well. 440 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 3: So as we consider the appointments that aren't necessarily confirmed yet, 441 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 3: including that of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida being tapped 442 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 3: for Secretary of State, I do wonder your feelings as 443 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 3: a Democrat on this. Could Donald Trump have made a 444 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 3: poor choice? Is that actually one that Democrats might find 445 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 3: some comfort in when they're considering the future of foreign 446 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 3: policy of the US. 447 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 7: You know, I think so far his appointments have not 448 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 7: been particularly unexpected, nor has he made a choice that 449 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 7: I think Democrats will line up in droves to object to. 450 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 7: You know, it is interesting to see the talk of 451 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 7: Marco Rubio we don't know yet. Along with Mike Waltz 452 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 7: suggests that Susie Wiles is playing a big role here. 453 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 7: These are two people she has worked closely with, and 454 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 7: of course Rubio, we don't have confirmed yet. 455 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 10: You know. 456 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 7: Also important to remember, as he continues, at least so far, 457 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 7: to take some folks out of the House, is that 458 00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 7: while Donald Trump won a big victory on Tuesday, he 459 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 7: comes with arguably one of the narrow whist House majorities 460 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 7: for Republicans in history. So you know, he's got to 461 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,439 Speaker 7: be very careful there. We heard Mike Johnson say that 462 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 7: on the steps today. But by and large, I think 463 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 7: these are people who know Washington and the ones that 464 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 7: are going to go up for confirmation will likely pass 465 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 7: given the majority in the Senate. And of course Donald 466 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 7: Trump has said we need to make appointments during recess 467 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 7: if they have a danger of not passing. So he's already, 468 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 7: you know, suggesting that if we can't get him through confirmation, 469 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 7: we got to do recess appointments. So he is playing 470 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:33,440 Speaker 7: those odds already. 471 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,760 Speaker 5: Well, we're talking today about the start of the lame 472 00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 5: duck session, the return of lawmakers to Washington, and there's 473 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 5: a loud conversation happening in progressive quarters here Chapin about 474 00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 5: Trump proofing, as some call it, government and some of 475 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 5: the specific examples having to do with legislation passed by 476 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 5: Joe Biden and Democratic lawmakers fromle A. Gianpaul, the outgoing 477 00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 5: chair of the Progressive Caucus, says, a lot of things 478 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 5: can be undone, but it can take longer to undo 479 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 5: them and would force a priority from them on what 480 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 5: they want to focus on. They're preparing a raft, as 481 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 5: we read today in axios of executive orders that President 482 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,040 Speaker 5: Biden could issue on his way out here to protect 483 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 5: quote existing structures such as shielding career civil servants and 484 00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,399 Speaker 5: Justice Department officials. Can this come together in the short 485 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 5: amount of time they have. 486 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,159 Speaker 8: We'll never say never, But I just don't, you know, 487 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 8: I don't think the Progressive Caucus really was wagging the 488 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,679 Speaker 8: dog with the Biden administration from the get go. So 489 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:41,199 Speaker 8: I don't know that at the end Joe Biden's going 490 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 8: to have that kind of appetite, particularly since some on 491 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 8: the right of the aisle have seen him, we have 492 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,119 Speaker 8: interpreted him and sort of maybe enjoying this moment a 493 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 8: little bit too much after Harris has lost. So I 494 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,359 Speaker 8: don't know that there's an appetite for Joe Biden to 495 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 8: sort of, you know, do a flurry of executive orders 496 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 8: that it's going to make for difficult President Trump, incoming president, 497 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:06,400 Speaker 8: to get his agenda done. I do see some compromise 498 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,120 Speaker 8: there where, maybe there's a few things that he does, 499 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 8: but I don't see any sort of major or wholesale 500 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 8: operation from Joe Biden to trip up the the incoming administration. 501 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:16,879 Speaker 8: I don't think that's gonna happen. 502 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 3: Well, And as we consider what the next administration is 503 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 3: going to look like, we've been talking a lot about 504 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 3: how Donald Trump is likely cheap and going to have 505 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,679 Speaker 3: the cooperation of Congress with the Senate at least, and 506 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,159 Speaker 3: very likely a narrow majority in the House. But we 507 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,919 Speaker 3: saw how difficult that narrow majority has been over the 508 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 3: last two years for the Republican Conference to navigate. Do 509 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 3: you have confidence it will be different this time around? 510 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,879 Speaker 3: And if it's different, what exactly about it will be? 511 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,479 Speaker 8: Well, I think there's going to be fewer members who 512 00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 8: are willing to come up an entire piece of legislation 513 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 8: along parties in our ideological alliance. Right, I think Trump 514 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 8: won in a overwhelming or Republicans led by Trump one 515 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 8: in an overwhelming way on election Day, and I think 516 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,119 Speaker 8: Republicans within the Caucus may grumble about getting some more 517 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 8: stuff for their district or something like that, or shaping 518 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 8: bills and shaping the policy, but I think you're going 519 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 8: to see that he's going to be able to do 520 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 8: the things that he needs to do even with a 521 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 8: small majority in the House. 522 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 3: All right, Shape and Fay, thank you so much for 523 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 3: joining US Republican Strategists of course and founder of Lighthouse 524 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,679 Speaker 3: Public Affairs, together with Jeanie Shansey, no Democratic strategist and 525 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:29,919 Speaker 3: senior Democracy Fellow with the Center for the Study of 526 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 3: the Presidency in Congress our political panel today. Thank you 527 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 3: both so much. And we mentioned Joe that we're still 528 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,439 Speaker 3: awaiting firm confirmation of some of these picks, including Secretary 529 00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 3: of State selection potentially of Senator Marco Rubio. Another one 530 00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,840 Speaker 3: we should mention as well, that's been reported by other outlets, 531 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 3: not as here a Bloomberg as Christy No, that's right 532 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 3: for the Department of Homeland. 533 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 5: Security, according to CNN. I'd be very curious to see 534 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 5: an official statement on this. He was leading a lot 535 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 5: of newscasts last evening. But it does remind us that 536 00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 5: they have a long list of names for a lot 537 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 5: lot of jobs and they're not waiting around to start 538 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,159 Speaker 5: matching names with positions here, even if they're floating balloons. 539 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,119 Speaker 5: We're going to know pretty quickly who's going to be 540 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 5: in a lot of these positions to fill out the cabinet. 541 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 3: Remarkable to think election day was just a week ago. 542 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 5: We could go today today, imagine where we were. 543 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 3: Then has already changed since then. Of course, we've had 544 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 3: that covered for you. We will continue to do so 545 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 3: with much more still ahead here on Balance of Power 546 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,879 Speaker 3: on Bloomberg TV and radio. 547 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,800 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 548 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 2: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 549 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 2: and then Proudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on 550 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,800 Speaker 2: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 551 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,119 Speaker 2: on YouTube. 552 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 5: Breaking news from the Trump camp with another appointment here 553 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 5: we did not see coming today. As we keep trained 554 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 5: on openings on the cabinet, it's an ambassadorial role that 555 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,680 Speaker 5: emerges with a statement from the former president now the 556 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:59,920 Speaker 5: President elect, please to announce that the former governor of Arkansas, 557 00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 5: Mike Huckabee, will be the next US Ambassador to Israel. 558 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 5: Donald Trump writes, Mike has been a great public servant, governor, 559 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,639 Speaker 5: leader in faith for many years. He loves Israel and 560 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,560 Speaker 5: the people of Israel, and likewise the people of Israel 561 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 5: love him. This just emerging, Kayley, a day after at 562 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:21,639 Speaker 5: least Stephonic was tapped to be US ambassador to the UN. 563 00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 6: Yeah. 564 00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 3: Of course, Congresswoman Stephanic has been a vocal proponent of 565 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 3: pro Israel policy. I think many would remember her questioning 566 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 3: the presidents of some of the universities that we're dealing 567 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 3: with protests over this past year. So you certainly are 568 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 3: seeing a very pro Israel batch of people selected to 569 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 3: help represent the United States, and frankly Israel's interest in 570 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 3: some of these bodies. Trump in that statement saying that 571 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 3: Mike will work tirelessly to bring about peace in the 572 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 3: Middle East, which does once again raise the question how 573 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,360 Speaker 3: the Trump administration will be approaching bringing an end to 574 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 3: this war, and not only this war, but others as well, 575 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 3: including the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. 576 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting as well to learn this the same 577 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,200 Speaker 5: day that Axios reports Ron Dermer was at mar A 578 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 5: Lago to meet with Donald Trump. So this is taking 579 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,720 Speaker 5: shape as we speak, not just domestically, but when it 580 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:15,239 Speaker 5: comes to foreign policy and some of the questions that 581 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 5: we see around. 582 00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 2: The House of Representatives. 583 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,920 Speaker 5: You mentioned Congresswoman Staphonic potentially making Mike Johnson's job a 584 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,080 Speaker 5: little bit more difficult with what appears to be it's 585 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:27,960 Speaker 5: not yet official, but a relatively thin Republican majority, much 586 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 5: like he's had since he got the gavel. 587 00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's what has made policy making and legislating on 588 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 3: the Hill so difficult over the course of the one 589 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 3: hundred and eighteenth Congress is there just wasn't really much 590 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 3: room for error. That certainly could be so we still, have, 591 00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,120 Speaker 3: of course more votes to be counted in a number 592 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,800 Speaker 3: of states, including California. But Republicans at this point just 593 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 3: need to pick one of seven remaining toss ups. If 594 00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:50,800 Speaker 3: they pick that up, that would get them to the 595 00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 3: two hundred and eighteen required to get the majority. The 596 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,959 Speaker 3: question is how much wiggle room are they going to have. 597 00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 3: This is something that Speaker Johnson was talking about on 598 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 3: Capitol Hill. As lawmakers retire to Washington today. 599 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 11: Every single vote will count because if someone gets ill 600 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 11: or has a car accident or a late flight on 601 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 11: their plane, that it affects the votes on the floor. 602 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 11: So I think he and the administration are well in 603 00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 11: tuned to that. I don't expect that we will have 604 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 11: more members leaving, but I'll leave that up to him. 605 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 3: So we want to go now to Capitol Hill, where 606 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 3: we're joined by Bloomberg Government's Jack Fitzpatrick here on Bloomberg 607 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Jack, welcome back. I'm sure it feels 608 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 3: good to be back after the long election and campaign recess. 609 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 3: Certainly there is no time to waste for Republicans on 610 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 3: the Hill, especially who have leadership elections tomorrow. Perhaps there's 611 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 3: not going to be any drama. Speaker Johnson does seem 612 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 3: set to keep his job assuming the majority is retained. 613 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 3: But what's going to happen in that Senate vote? 614 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 10: Yeah, the Senate is going to be a lot more 615 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:59,680 Speaker 10: interesting between the three members running for it, John Thune, 616 00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:03,880 Speaker 10: Cornyn and Rick Scott. You may have seen Rick Scott 617 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:10,800 Speaker 10: responding to Trump's demand for recess appointments to rapidly get 618 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 10: people confirmed without having to go through the traditional Senate 619 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,800 Speaker 10: confirmation process. Scott said he one hundred percent agrees there 620 00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 10: may be a bit of a debate over the Senate's 621 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 10: role to advise and consent on that and as members 622 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,640 Speaker 10: come back into the capital today, we'll probably get a 623 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 10: little more a little more feedback on the direction of 624 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 10: that race. But you're right that that Senate Republican leadership 625 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 10: race appears to be much closer than anything in the House. 626 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 10: The Speaker looks safe compared to I mean, really, it 627 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 10: was kind of considered a given that if they keep 628 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:49,120 Speaker 10: the majority, Speaker Johnson is in a pretty good spot. 629 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 10: So the intrigue is more on the Senate side at 630 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:52,240 Speaker 10: this point. 631 00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 5: So what's on the agenda for the lame duck here, Jack? 632 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 5: We know that lawmakers have to fund the government beyond 633 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,680 Speaker 5: December twentieth, and you could probably add some color to that. 634 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:04,960 Speaker 5: We're hearing maybe March now they kick the canon of 635 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 5: spring to buy some time. There's also the NDAA. There's 636 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 5: also the matter of a farm bill, and I wonder 637 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 5: if you see that getting any love, or if they 638 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 5: kick the can on the farm bill as well. 639 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 10: So the NDAA probably is the top priority for what 640 00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 10: they want to actually fully accomplish by the end of 641 00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 10: the calendar year. That tends to be a very high priority. 642 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,600 Speaker 10: The farm bill has been moving slowly. I know they're 643 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 10: trying to get things together on that. There's been some 644 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 10: discussion about whether they could, if that gets delayed, if 645 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 10: they could take portions of the farm bill and actually 646 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:43,120 Speaker 10: put it into a reconciliation package, which would be alongside 647 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 10: a tax bill later next year. So we have a 648 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 10: little more a little more work to do to figure 649 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 10: out exactly what's going to happen with farm bill. The 650 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,400 Speaker 10: last I've heard on government funding as of yesterday, according 651 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:59,160 Speaker 10: to a House Republican leadership aid, the expectation is they're 652 00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 10: going to kick the can with a stopgap into March. 653 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 10: That's important, not just because of the prospect of delaying 654 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 10: government funding, but if they give the incoming Trump administration 655 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 10: a deadline early on to avoid a shutdown, that could 656 00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 10: very well interfere with that major tax bill. It could 657 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:21,480 Speaker 10: interfere with the process of getting cabinet appointees confirmed by 658 00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 10: the Senate. So it would be a big risk for 659 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,600 Speaker 10: Republicans to try to set up a shutdown fight that 660 00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:32,120 Speaker 10: early in a presidential administration. But that is what we've 661 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,880 Speaker 10: heard is the expectation, at least on the House side 662 00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 10: at this point. 663 00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,760 Speaker 5: Fascinating. As always, it's great to have you back on 664 00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 5: the Hill. Jack Fitzpatrick, reporting for Bloomberg. Government will be 665 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 5: spending a lot more time with Jack as we get 666 00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,400 Speaker 5: into that appropriations process in the stopgap funding bill that 667 00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 5: he mentions. But since we're talking about the farm bill 668 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 5: among other matters, we're pointed directly to an important conversation 669 00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:59,720 Speaker 5: with Matt Carston's the CEO of landis a farming collaborative 670 00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,160 Speaker 5: that will be impacted by policy here in Washington and Kayley. 671 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,520 Speaker 5: It's one of the opportunities that we love to take 672 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,560 Speaker 5: to leave the bubble here and talk to a stakeholder 673 00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:12,240 Speaker 5: that will be impacted here beyond politicos in Washington. Matt, welcome, 674 00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,040 Speaker 5: It's great to have you with us on Bloomberg TV 675 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:19,400 Speaker 5: and Radio. Donald Trump says the word tariff is his 676 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,480 Speaker 5: favorite word in the dictionary. He calls it beautiful. How 677 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:24,719 Speaker 5: do farmers feel about it? 678 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 12: Well, you know, that's a complicated topic, as we all know. 679 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:36,040 Speaker 12: You know, agriculture really relies partially on exports and making 680 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:40,960 Speaker 12: sure that the goods are farmers produced, whether it's protein, grains, 681 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,799 Speaker 12: has an international market. So what I would say is, 682 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 12: you know, although there's a lot of complexity to a tariff, 683 00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 12: what we can always hope is that the farmer has 684 00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,160 Speaker 12: a seat at that table. The voice of agriculture is 685 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,880 Speaker 12: being heard because you know, they are the ones that 686 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,320 Speaker 12: with rural that helped elect him the first time, helped 687 00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,120 Speaker 12: on this reelecttion, and they need to be at that 688 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,440 Speaker 12: table to make sure that we're finding the right balance 689 00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 12: to them whatever we're trying to solve with the tariff 690 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,080 Speaker 12: and what it can mean for agriculture. 691 00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 3: So what would you say, if at that table, about 692 00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 3: what that appropriate balance is and who we perhaps need 693 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,879 Speaker 3: to be most careful about targeting with terrifts for fear 694 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,360 Speaker 3: of retaliation on the agriculture industry in the United States. 695 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,600 Speaker 12: Well, we've already seen an adjustment right now with what 696 00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,080 Speaker 12: we used to be able to do or we're exporting 697 00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 12: to countries like China. That's already down quite a bit, 698 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,799 Speaker 12: and it's really affected our farmers in the Midwest. And 699 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 12: this is several administrations all the way through where we're 700 00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,080 Speaker 12: at and where we might be going. So I think 701 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,560 Speaker 12: the point that has to be made is we need 702 00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,839 Speaker 12: to make sure the cause and effect has truly been 703 00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 12: balanced with what agriculture really needs, and the cause and 704 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,920 Speaker 12: effect of that, we've seen margins come down substantially for 705 00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,640 Speaker 12: our farmers. Now, the good news is some expenses went 706 00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,640 Speaker 12: down for them and the way they controlled their costs, 707 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 12: and then we also had some good yields across the 708 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,360 Speaker 12: Midwest and across most of the country here. But in 709 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 12: the reverse side, we've got to make sure that both 710 00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,760 Speaker 12: sides are being understood, whatever the solve is and whatever 711 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:14,279 Speaker 12: the cause and effect is to agriculture, because those international 712 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 12: markets are absolutely critical for companies like Lands and Conduit 713 00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,440 Speaker 12: that are trying to move those goods out of our state, 714 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,880 Speaker 12: out of the Midwest and get them into a position 715 00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,240 Speaker 12: to go into a global market. And when you lose 716 00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,759 Speaker 12: a volume like we have the China, that has a 717 00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,160 Speaker 12: long term ripple effect and it's hard to recover from. 718 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,240 Speaker 5: Well, how much have we lost? How much have farmers 719 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 5: lost when it comes to exports to China? Set the 720 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 5: baseline for us here, Matt, before we even begin the 721 00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,000 Speaker 5: conversation about additional tariffs. 722 00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,400 Speaker 12: Yeah, I think you know, those numbers are always moving, 723 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,960 Speaker 12: and I haven't seen the latest, but I would say 724 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 12: it's probably safe to say we're nearing around half of 725 00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:55,239 Speaker 12: the exports that we used to see. I think there 726 00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 12: was an announcement today or earlier this week on Monday 727 00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,200 Speaker 12: around a new port that now South America opened up, 728 00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,080 Speaker 12: particularly for Brazil out of Peru. That China is very 729 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:11,239 Speaker 12: excited about taking imports from Brazil or Peru, the South 730 00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,160 Speaker 12: American market as a whole, and moving it over to China. 731 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:18,719 Speaker 12: So there continues to be additional pressures that get put on. 732 00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,359 Speaker 12: So it's not even where we're at, but what are 733 00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 12: other opportunities that some kind of a conflict could create 734 00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 12: that that now there's another alternative that we just weren't 735 00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,080 Speaker 12: used to, and that port will have an additional effect 736 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:35,240 Speaker 12: not just on what maybe happens in South America to China, 737 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:39,200 Speaker 12: but other parts of the world as well. So you know, 738 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,040 Speaker 12: today we're down quite a bit, and the future, particularly 739 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,480 Speaker 12: when you look at corn, looks a little more daunting 740 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:49,240 Speaker 12: as Brazil, particularly in South America, has a wider path 741 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 12: of what they can do with increased yields and more 742 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,280 Speaker 12: acres that they're farming than ever before. 743 00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,359 Speaker 3: Well, Matt, as you talk about pressures, I wonder as 744 00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:02,000 Speaker 3: well about cost pressures and inflation. I'm assuming this industry 745 00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,200 Speaker 3: has been grappling with us over the last several years, 746 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,280 Speaker 3: as many have, and perhaps that's one of the reasons 747 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,480 Speaker 3: why this election resulted the way that it did. We 748 00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,279 Speaker 3: of course, have a lot of conversation about the way 749 00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,319 Speaker 3: in which tariffs could lead to higher inflation. What would 750 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,960 Speaker 3: it mean for the agriculture industry not only to have 751 00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,960 Speaker 3: the potential retaliatory impact on the way in which the 752 00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,000 Speaker 3: goods are being exported, but also the inflationary impact on 753 00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:28,680 Speaker 3: if a tariff is placed on everything else, including equipment 754 00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 3: that they need need to actually to actually get those yields, 755 00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,080 Speaker 3: to farm that land, to do everything they need to do. 756 00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,640 Speaker 12: Yeah, it all has an effect, right, And for our 757 00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:45,360 Speaker 12: farmers that are engaged in this every day, they're balancing 758 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:49,960 Speaker 12: volume with price, with their expenses. And I thought the 759 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,439 Speaker 12: farmers really have done a great job in twenty four 760 00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:56,359 Speaker 12: you know, luckily mother nature cooperated and we got good 761 00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,840 Speaker 12: yields out of out of what we needed in most 762 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,879 Speaker 12: parts of the US, not all, but most. They did 763 00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,800 Speaker 12: a nice job as farmers really pulling back on equipment 764 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,000 Speaker 12: needs and trying to reduce the expense on that side. 765 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,920 Speaker 12: So when you add the volume and the expense reduction 766 00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 12: that the farmers were able to capitalize on, they're going 767 00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:15,680 Speaker 12: to be able to get out of twenty four in 768 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:19,280 Speaker 12: a good position, But nobody knows what twenty five really brings. 769 00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,640 Speaker 12: And that's the uncertainty that exists here, is what will 770 00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:27,080 Speaker 12: twenty five bring from from a cost standpoint, from a 771 00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:30,880 Speaker 12: mother nature standpoint, And then you look at just interest line. 772 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,680 Speaker 12: Some farmers have never even seen this kind of an 773 00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,640 Speaker 12: interest level or cost on their P and L and 774 00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,279 Speaker 12: those are things that they're just adding additional pressure to 775 00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,360 Speaker 12: the mix. So anything right now that adds additional pressure 776 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,600 Speaker 12: or farmers is going to have a big impact on them, 777 00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,400 Speaker 12: because we've taken a lot of those steps out in 778 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,080 Speaker 12: twenty three and twenty four, and now we've got to 779 00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:55,160 Speaker 12: look to the future and continue to try to find 780 00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,080 Speaker 12: some kind of win here. And that's where when you 781 00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:00,160 Speaker 12: come back to exports and making sure our farmers have 782 00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,920 Speaker 12: their goods that could go elsewhere, that's an important step. 783 00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,160 Speaker 5: Well, math this is an incoming administration that has promised 784 00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:13,239 Speaker 5: mass deportation and has also suggested that workplace raids might 785 00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,800 Speaker 5: come with that. I know that that remains a question 786 00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,040 Speaker 5: at this point, and we may need to learn more 787 00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 5: about it from Donald Trump's immigration officials. But to the 788 00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:26,560 Speaker 5: extent to which farmers are relying upon migrant workers. What 789 00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:30,760 Speaker 5: impact would a mass deportation have on your industry. 790 00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,040 Speaker 12: Well, it definitely has an impact as I think about 791 00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:38,160 Speaker 12: the Midwest and just across all of agriculture. Actually, it's 792 00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 12: still a very human intensity business that we're in, and 793 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,040 Speaker 12: I don't know if that's different from a lot of industries, 794 00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,920 Speaker 12: but agriculture for sure is no exception of that. And 795 00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:52,399 Speaker 12: as rural populations continue to fall in the amount that's 796 00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,040 Speaker 12: out there, it makes it even more challenging. Now in 797 00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 12: the Midwest, H two A workers have been a big 798 00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:00,359 Speaker 12: part and a big part of the solution to how 799 00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,080 Speaker 12: we've dealt with that and will continue to be as 800 00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,000 Speaker 12: we go forward there. But there are other parts, you know, 801 00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,879 Speaker 12: particularly in the western part of the United States in Southeast, 802 00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:11,520 Speaker 12: where it's not just H two A, but others that 803 00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,600 Speaker 12: they reach into. So again, I think getting that farmer's 804 00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:17,960 Speaker 12: voice at the table will be essential because as rural 805 00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:22,200 Speaker 12: continues to slide in its population and the workload is 806 00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:26,120 Speaker 12: still there for manual or just humans in general, we've 807 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:28,840 Speaker 12: got to make sure that there's a balance there and 808 00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,640 Speaker 12: that that AG's voice is heard and with hopefully as 809 00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:35,360 Speaker 12: soon appointment of USDA, that that person will have the 810 00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,719 Speaker 12: ag background and have the sort of speak dirt on 811 00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:41,000 Speaker 12: their hands to be able to reflect that and find 812 00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:43,719 Speaker 12: the right balance that that agg has that voice at 813 00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,920 Speaker 12: the table and find that that that true balance all right. 814 00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,719 Speaker 3: Matt Carson, CEO of Landis with a focus on the 815 00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,120 Speaker 3: agricultural industry, thank you so much for being here with us, 816 00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:56,120 Speaker 3: and he's reminding us show that we still have many 817 00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,640 Speaker 3: cabinet picks yet to learn about, including the Secretary of 818 00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:01,759 Speaker 3: agric Culture and others as well, even as we had 819 00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:03,160 Speaker 3: some confirmed just. 820 00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 10: In this appear. 821 00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,879 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 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