WEBVTT - It Could Happen Here Weekly 225 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:02.880 Col Zone Media. 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:05.720 Hey everybody, Robert Evans here, and I wanted to let 0:00:05.800 --> 0:00:09.440 you know this is a compilation episode. So every episode 0:00:09.560 --> 0:00:12.720 of the week that just happened is here in one 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:16.480 convenient and with somewhat less ads package for you to 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:19.040 listen to in a long stretch if you want. If 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:21.000 you've been listening to the episodes every day this week, 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:22.759 there's going to be nothing new here for you, but 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:25.560 you can make your own decisions. 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:31.640 This is it could happen here, I show about things 0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:35.559 falling apart. I'm Garrison Davis. I'm joined by Robert Evans 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:38.839 to discuss the Prairie Land trial. 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:41.680 Yay. 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:46.000 This month, the Trump administration got their first conviction in 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:51.800 an Antifa terrorism case. On Friday, March thirteenth, eight people 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:55.080 were convicted by a federal jury on charges of riot, 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:59.480 conspiracy to use and carry an explosive, and providing material 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:03.600 support to terrorists. One of the defendants was convicted of 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:07.520 attempted murder of a police officer, and another person was 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:11.440 convicted on two counts of concealing documents, bringing the total 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:16.280 number of federal defendants to nine. Originally, this federal case 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:20.480 had way more defendants, but last year seven of them 0:01:20.520 --> 0:01:24.800 pleaded guilty to providing material support terrorists, four of whom 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:29.160 were later called to testify for the prosecution during the trial. 0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:32.240 Have they gotten sentenced yet the folks who pled. 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:35.000 Out, No, They are going to be sentenced later this summer, 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:36.960 along with all of the defendants that were convicted. 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:39.399 Gotcha, though their sentence will. 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:44.480 Be a maximum of fifteen years, which is shorter than 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:46.080 the defendants who were convicted. 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:46.600 Yeah. 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:50.560 Yeah, The Prairie Line Defendants Support Committee did ask me 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:56.640 to read their names. The defendants are inns Soto, Liz Soto, 0:01:56.760 --> 0:02:02.000 Savannah Batten, meg and Morris, Autumn Hill, Mari Ruida, Benjamin 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:08.000 Song or b Song, Zachary Evitz, and des Estrada. The 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.880 prosecution tried to argue that this was a coordinated attack 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:14.200 on an ice facility in Prairie Land, Texas, while the 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:17.760 defense argued this was a noise demonstration protest outside of 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:21.520 this detention facility last summer. On the night of July fourth, 0:02:22.240 --> 0:02:27.000 after protesters through fireworks and vandalized property, DJs personnel called 0:02:27.080 --> 0:02:31.200 local police for assistance. One officer arrived, drew his handgun 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:33.320 and yelled stop at a person in all black clothes 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:36.880 who was running away. One of the defendants, b Song, 0:02:37.360 --> 0:02:41.360 then yelled get to the rifles before firing toward the 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:43.760 officer with an Air fifteen, hitting him in the neck. 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:47.720 Song fired eleven times. The officer returned fire three times. 0:02:48.160 --> 0:02:51.520 Song then fled the scene. Most of the defendants were 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.760 arrested in the days after the attacks, some that night 0:02:54.880 --> 0:02:58.480 near the facility, though Song camped out, hiding in the 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:02.280 woods overnight and evaded care for eleven days with the 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:05.280 help of others. Many of those who assisted Song of 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:09.200 ad capture after the shooting pledg guilty to providing material 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:13.720 support to terrorists. On the first day of this trial, 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:17.360 the judge declared a mistrial because one of the defense 0:03:17.400 --> 0:03:21.680 attorneys wore a shirt featuring civil rights leaders. A week 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:26.240 into the trial, US District Court Judge Mark Pittman ruled 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:29.679 that defense attorneys could not argue that the defendants, including 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.120 the accused shooter, were acting in self defense or the 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:37.240 defense of others against unlawful force just because the officer 0:03:37.240 --> 0:03:41.240 had already drawn his handgun before Song fired. The prosecutors 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:46.280 compared this to Waco, and Judge Pittman ruled that the 0:03:46.320 --> 0:03:49.800 officer drawing and pointing his handgun at a fleeing suspect 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:53.280 does not qualify as quote excessive as a matter of 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:57.400 law because the officer did not actually use deadly force 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:58.440 or shoot first. 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:02.840 Yeah, that makes sense. Like if this were a civilian 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:07.040 on civilian situation, the fact that he had drawn his gun, 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:10.720 especially in Texas, would have been enough to at least 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:15.280 argue self defense. But absolutely, police officers have the right 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.560 to pull guns on whoever they want, whenever they want 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:19.520 pretty much, so yeah, yep. 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:20.320 Cool. 0:04:21.480 --> 0:04:25.240 In court, the government argued that, based on the situation 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:29.160 at the protest, that it was reasonable for the officer 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:33.040 to decide to draw his handgun because there was crimes 0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:36.159 being committed to property damage the fireworks, even if he 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:40.520 did not witness fireworks as he pulled up to the scene. Now, 0:04:40.720 --> 0:04:46.400 headlines have framed this story as protesters being convicted of 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:51.719 terrorism for wearing black clothes or possessing radical political writing 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:55.599 also known as zines. There is like a kernel of 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:59.280 truth to these statements, but they're designed to serve primarily 0:04:59.360 --> 0:05:03.320 as clickbait rather than useful information. So let's take a 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:08.240 closer look at these claims. Sure, let's start by getting 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:12.359 into the action planning so this action was originally planned 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:16.520 on the encrypted messaging app Signal, primarily in a group 0:05:16.600 --> 0:05:20.840 chat called fourth of July Party Okay. The plan was 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:24.200 also discussed during an in person meeting the day before 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:27.640 the action, referred to during the trial as a gear check. 0:05:29.040 --> 0:05:32.080 Participense in the planning chat agreed to where black block 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:35.560 and bring armor and rifles. Song advertised the action in 0:05:35.640 --> 0:05:39.080 a larger group chat of dozens of quote unquote trusted individuals. 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:42.400 The event was characterized in this chat as a low 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:46.880 risk noise demonstration involving fireworks. A flyer was sent to 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:50.400 this larger chat, reading share with trusted folks only, do 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:54.680 not post mask up, be loud on quote. According to 0:05:54.760 --> 0:05:58.760 cooperating witness Susan Kent, in the fourth of July Party 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:02.640 Signal chat, when asked about bringing guns, Songs stated, I'm 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:04.120 not going back to prison. 0:06:04.400 --> 0:06:07.760 I'm not going to jail. I'm bringing guns unquote. 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:11.560 Okay, that's a terrible thing to have in writing, boy, 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:13.159 okay great. 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.520 This sentiment was also expressed at the gear check meeting 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:21.120 on July third, where the Fundans discussed bringing guns, and 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.400 Song repeatedly stated that they would be bringing guns because 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:29.039 he would not be quote unquote going to jail. They 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:32.559 talked about guns as a deterrent. Yeah, they talked about 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:38.080 how in previous instances the presence of guns deterred police 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:43.120 from engaging with protesters. And this is how the presence 0:06:43.160 --> 0:06:45.919 of guns at the protest was largely framed in these 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:49.679 meetings and chats. It does not look good in writing 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:50.760 in a court case though. 0:06:51.320 --> 0:06:53.640 Yeah, and this is what the Elm Fork John Brown 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:56.280 Gun Club had done, like sweep defenses and stuff where 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:57.280 they'd shown up armed. 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.000 That incident was brought up. Yeah, that was specifically referenced. 0:07:00.200 --> 0:07:02.480 It had in fact worked that way more or less. 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:06.000 I mean, there's a number of things to drill into here, 0:07:06.040 --> 0:07:08.640 but one of the issues is just while that's a 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:11.920 thing people have used firearms for and have done so 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.800 in a way that worked in the past obviously, which 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.520 is what they were referencing, the problem is that you 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.360 can't ever lose sight of the fact that, like, a 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:22.680 gun is a gun, and if you're bringing a gun 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:24.720 into a situation. 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:25.960 There's potential for that gun to be used. 0:07:26.160 --> 0:07:28.440 There's a potential for that gun to be used. And 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:31.720 if you're bringing that gun into a situation around a 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:34.480 police station. The odds that you will use that gun 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:37.880 in a way that is not going to cause a 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:41.120 life ruining legal nightmare for you and everyone else are 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:44.080 a lot lower. That's a real issue. 0:07:44.200 --> 0:07:44.680 Yeah. 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:46.320 Also at this gear check. 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:50.520 On the third, song proposed to free detainees using quote 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:54.880 unquote suppressive fire. Oh my god, this idea was shut 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:58.440 down by other attendees, according to Susan Kent, who testified 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:03.040 after entering a guy plea. Kent testified that after looking 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.240 over photos of the facility, Song said, quote, this is 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.000 as easy as it's going to get. We can take 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:13.360 the place and free the people inside using quote unquote 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:18.520 suppressive fire. This idea was meant with quote unquote general disagreement, 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:21.560 according to Kent, Yeah, of course, also saying that it 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:26.000 was not seriously planned for or discussed the support committee 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:29.840 rights that. Kent also testified that the group quote discussed 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:33.839 stealing U hauls to move free detainees, but this did 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:39.000 not have popular support. Defendant Autumn Hill asked do we 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:44.680 bring our guns? Song replied, yes, I'm not getting arrested unquote. 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.440 Yeah, just a lot of really horrible things to have 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:51.199 read out in a courtroom. Just yep. 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:56.120 Cool, okay on Signal, song shared a YouTube short about 0:08:56.160 --> 0:09:01.400 suppressive fire. Another defendant wrote that she didn't want to 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:05.320 quote unquote fed post Yeah. Someone else wrote that rifles 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:09.440 at the action may increase risk. Defendant Evitts sent a 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:13.079 timeline for the actions that day, writing things heat up 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:18.080 after sunset. Royeda wrote quote if people inside get rowdy, 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:22.280 people in this chat would be charged for conspiracy question mark. 0:09:22.840 --> 0:09:26.720 And then after the fourth of July shooting, someone messaged, quote, 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:30.960 please delete signal chats. Chats still on phone even if 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:36.040 removed from groups unquote yeah. According to Support Committee notes, 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:40.200 some Signal messages were recovered from phones using Apple's internal 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:44.360 notification system, though even though Signal had been removed, incoming 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:48.040 messages were preserved in the internal memory on the phone. 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:51.680 Outgoing messages were not preserved because there's no notification system 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:55.240 for outgoing messages, and you can set your settings on 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:58.040 Signal to not display the message in notifications, and it 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:01.040 seems like that was not the case for these messages 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.319 that were taken from defendants phones. 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:06.000 Yeah, and this is a known I mean, just the 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:10.719 fact that having notifications on with Signal as a privacy 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:12.880 issue has been known for a while but. 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:18.959 Yeah, two defendants, Liz Sojo and Savannah Batten, were neither 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:24.040 in planning chats nor attended the gear check. But all 0:10:24.040 --> 0:10:27.400 the defendants who attended the protest did carpool together in 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:31.959 two vehicles and brought a total of eleven firearms, body armor, 0:10:32.160 --> 0:10:35.280 individual first aid kits, and all these were presented as 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:38.920 government exhibits. I'm going to quote the Department of Justice 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:40.040 right up about this case. 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:40.679 Quote. 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:45.280 Evidence at trial revealed most of the ANTIFA cell involved 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:48.760 in the Prairie Line attack looked to Song as a leader. 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:52.800 Song acquired firearms that were distributed to co defendants and 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:57.960 recruited members that gun ranges and combat sessions that conducted unquote. 0:10:57.559 --> 0:11:01.920 Yep I just as a general rule, like because the 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:07.160 potential consequences of having firearms in a protest are so high. 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:11.600 If you are showing up at a protest or organizing 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:15.440 one and people are talking about bringing them, it behooves 0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:18.840 you to pay close attention to how they talk about them. 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.680 And if someone is talking about, for example, suppress a fire, 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:27.840 that's not something that is really relevant to a defensive 0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:31.400 shooting in a legal situation, that's like a combat thing, 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:35.720 like very rarely do self defense shootings involve suppressing fire. 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:39.400 I just you have to be very very careful. Yeah, 0:11:39.440 --> 0:11:41.200 And this is like a judgment thing. Like if you 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:44.400 hear people talking about guns who are going to be 0:11:44.440 --> 0:11:47.679 bringing firearms to a protest or another event, and they 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:49.520 are talking in a way that sounds as if they 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:52.440 are like planning or eager to shoot it out with 0:11:53.000 --> 0:11:57.640 the police or right wing count with anyone, that's a 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:03.320 thing to be very wary of. That's a real warning sign. Yeah, 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:06.120 that's a real red flag. Yeah, that's a real red flag. 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:11.800 The defense argued that when Song shot at the officer, 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:15.360 Song was using suppressive fire, claiming that Song aimed for 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.960 the ground and the officer was perhaps struck by a ricochet. 0:12:19.559 --> 0:12:21.200 We don't know if that is true. 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:25.959 No, And there really is no legal precedent no arguing 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:28.640 suppressive fire in this way. 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:29.920 In a self defense shooting. 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:32.440 No, if you're shooting the direction of someone, yeah, they 0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:36.280 absolutely can start shooting back, even if that absolute fire 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.600 is intended as being quote unquote suppressive. Right, Like, there's 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:43.920 there's really no legal precedent for arguing in this way. 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:46.360 And from a legal standpoint, if you were saying I 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.840 had to shoot at someone in immediate self defense. And 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.120 then you said, but I wasn't actually aiming at them. 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.880 I was just trying to suppress them that immediately. Like 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:56.640 I mean, I don't think they were ever going to 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.000 be able to argue self defense because this was a cop. 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:01.360 But if this had not been, if this had been like, 0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:04.520 you know, a right wing counter protester or something, the 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.840 fact that you're saying that you were like shooting to 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:10.520 try not to hit them is something that can get 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:13.160 you in trouble. That's an extremely dangerous thing from a 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:15.000 legal standpoint to talk about. 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:16.920 Especially if you're the one like initiating the use of 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:17.480 deadly force. 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:20.440 Yes, if you have now if they if a group 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.680 of people start shooting at you and you are firing 0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:24.400 and you're just trying to keep it whatever that you're 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:26.600 in a say it because they've started shooting at you. 0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:29.679 But like this person started shooting, Like just from a 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:33.400 legal standpoint, this is a nightmare for the defense. Yeah, 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:35.160 from the jump. Yeah. 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.320 Some of the defendants attended a daytime protest outside of 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:42.440 this facility earlier on July fourth, and after which they 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.800 then reported back to fellow defendants details regarding the facility 0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:50.600 security prior to this nighttime action. I think it's time 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:53.800 for a quick break and then we'll return to discuss 0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:58.360 the Antifa terrorism cell aspect of this case. 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.079 Great, well, I hate all of it so far, Garrison, 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:13.880 here's some ads. I guess we're back. 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:16.680 So let's talk about quote unquote Antifa. 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:19.240 Yeah, let's talk about quote end quote Antifa. 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:22.440 The government argued that the defendants were members of a 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:29.920 quote unquote North Texas Antifa cell. The indictment describes Antifa 0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:32.680 as a quote militant enterprise made up of networks of 0:14:32.720 --> 0:14:36.520 individuals and small groups, primarily ascribing to a revolutionary, anarchist 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:40.600 or autonomous Marxist ideology which explicitly calls for the overthrow 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:43.480 of the United States government, law enforcement authorities, and the 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:47.320 system of law unquote. So basically, they view Antifa as 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:50.280 left wing anti authoritarians. Right, That's how we can kind 0:14:50.280 --> 0:14:54.280 of collapse the use of this term down into like 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:57.800 a single sentence, it's left wing anti authoritarianism. Though the 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:03.080 defendants never actually or organized altogether under the Antifa name, 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.480 the prosecution argued that they were linked through a triple 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:12.080 ven diagram of the Socialist Rifle Association the John Brown 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:15.840 Gun Club and the Emma Goldman book Club, and it's 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:20.200 all converged on quote unquote direct to militant action. I'm 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:23.960 assuming people are familiar with the SRA or the John 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:26.040 Brown Gun Club in some way. 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:25.800 Yeah. 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:30.479 The Emma Goldman Book Club was a local zene distributor 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:36.000 and publisher that also put on community events from a radical, 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:41.120 anti capitalist, usually anarchist friendly perspective, Emma Goldwyn obviously being 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:42.440 an anarchist yep. 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:45.960 And like the fact that obviously these three organizations aren't 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:49.480 actually tied together in any sort of like like they're 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:51.800 trying to frame it as like, you know, an al 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.920 Qaeda and an al Qaida affiliate type deal, right, which 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.720 is not sure accurate to how these organizations work or 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:02.080 what's going on here. But I'm not surprised they went 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:03.040 with this line of argument. 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.720 I mean, yeah, the defendants had connections to these groups, right, 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:11.960 And because these groups have an ideological underpinning that can 0:16:12.000 --> 0:16:15.080 be seen as being quite similar in some ways, they're 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.120 viewing that as as part of the connection, right, that 0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:21.600 connects the individuals who were involved in these sorts of 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.040 organizations or community events. 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:26.360 Yeah, And I'm not surprised. That's how they tried to 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:27.120 argue it sure. 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:31.960 A sticky notepad found at the Soto residence contained passwords 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:36.000 for the Emma Goldman book Club Twitter account and an 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:40.800 Antifa Dallas fort Worth Twitter account, which prosecution usedes evidence 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:44.960 linking defendants to quote unquote Antifa. The government also called 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:49.680 on David Kyle Shittler as an expert weitness to testify 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:53.960 about Antifa. Shittler is a member of the Center for 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:58.160 Security Policy and SBLC designeded hate group. He also helped 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:01.840 draft the definition of en Tifa given in this case, 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:04.720 and used that definition while testifying in front of the 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:10.040 Senate last year. The defense missed a deadline to challenge 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:15.600 the prosecutions and TIFA expert qualifications, which would have needed 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:18.600 to be filed as a pre trial motion as opposed 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:22.960 to an objection during the trial. Prosecutors also cited Trump's 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:27.320 Antifa Executive Order, despite this order being signed months after 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:31.719 the Prairie Land incident, and the prosecutors also claimed that 0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:37.399 the International Antifa Defense Fund contributed over five thousand dollars 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:41.959 to the prairie Land defendants give Send Go crowd funding page. 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:46.879 So much of this case was spent arguing over whether 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:52.240 the defendants were in fact Antifa and what that even means, like, 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:54.720 what does it mean to be antifa and if that's 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:58.359 actually relevant to the charges that they were facing, And 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:00.359 by the end of the trial it became more clear 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:05.480 that the defendants weren't exactly being prosecuted for being members 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:09.679 of Antifa. Rather, the government asserted that their proximity to 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:14.199 this idea of Antifa provided evidence to their motive and 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:19.639 preferred tactics. Quoting the Support Committee courtroom notes quote, the 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:23.879 government's strategy was to display zines, stickers, pamphlets, flags, and 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:27.800 other political materials anarchist, anti fascist, anti ice, animal liberation 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:33.000 and argued that this shared ideology proves conspiracy and motive. 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:38.280 FBI case agent Casey Bennett testified that the materials quote 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:42.080 show a group of people sharing an ideology and that 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:45.680 this quote might lead us to intent behind the attack 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:52.080 and shows a conspiracy unquote. Towards the end of the trial, 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:56.959 Judge Pittman asked the prosecution quote, is it necessary to 0:18:57.119 --> 0:19:02.200 prove this stuff about Antifa? The Support Committee courtroom notes 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:07.360 say that the prosecution responded by saying that Antifa ideology, 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:11.800 particularly black block was how the group operated. The judge pressed, 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:16.400 quote whether it's Antifa or the Methodist Women's Auxiliary, why 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:17.000 does it matter? 0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:17.520 Yep. 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:20.920 The prosecution argued that they took quote unquote direct action 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.919 against the ICE facility, and argued Black Block and Antifa 0:19:25.040 --> 0:19:28.880 ideology were central to how the alleged attack was carried out. 0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:33.320 Unquote, Well, that's yeah, that's positive at least, I guess. 0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:35.720 The government described black Block for the purpose of this 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:38.680 case as quote dark clothing with head and face coverings 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.880 that concealed their identities, designed to hide each individual's identity, 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:45.719 but also to aid and those members engaged in illegal 0:19:45.760 --> 0:19:48.480 acts by making members indistinguishable from one another to law 0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:51.760 enforcement unquote. The jury was shown clothing from all the 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:54.240 defendants as evidence, as well as body armour and a 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:58.800 quote unquote resist fascism flag. Now, all this does raise 0:19:58.800 --> 0:20:01.480 the question about whether this press acution is against the 0:20:01.480 --> 0:20:06.080 defendant's political ideology or the specific criminal acts of throwing 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:09.760 fireworks or shooting at a police officer, rather than being 0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:13.640 convicted of being members of Antifa, the terrorist group, something 0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:17.360 that still doesn't really have legal precedent. The prosecutors argued 0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:21.399 that the Antifa ideology left wing anti authoritarianism played a 0:20:21.480 --> 0:20:24.720 role in inspiring the defendants formed the basis of political 0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:28.800 affinity that brought this collection of individuals together and relate 0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:33.040 to a collection of security practices, subcultural practices, and associated 0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:36.920 tactics which were employed before, during, and after the criminal 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:41.600 acts related to the Noise demo quote unquote, opsec practices 0:20:41.760 --> 0:20:44.880 like you know, black Block are using signal were used 0:20:45.000 --> 0:20:48.720 as evidence, Yeah, that there was some sort of conspiracy 0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:49.359 at foot. 0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:53.080 Sure, yeah, I mean, yeah, that makes sense from a 0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:56.679 prosecutorial standpoint, right, these people are talking about like just 0:20:56.680 --> 0:20:59.280 the fact that there are zines talking about the purpose 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:03.080 of black Block and people are having a planning meeting 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:05.239 ahead of time where they're like checking their gear and 0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:08.120 talking about how they're going to come in block, Like yeah, yeah, 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.640 that's uh, that's that's unfortunate. Yeah, I can see why 0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:13.560 the prosecution went with that line of argument. 0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:16.280 But how does this relate to like terrorism, right, because right, 0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:19.560 conspiracy and terrorism are different things. Yes, So to get 0:21:19.600 --> 0:21:24.480 an idea of the government's own preferred language regarding antifa 0:21:24.600 --> 0:21:28.439 terrorism all quote from the guilty plea drafted by the 0:21:28.440 --> 0:21:31.640 government for a former defendant turned government witness. 0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:32.280 Quote. 0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:37.000 The terrorism was calculated to influence and affect the conduct 0:21:37.080 --> 0:21:41.800 of government by intimidation or coercion. Co conspirators adhered to 0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:46.879 an Antifa anarchist ideology and organized cells or affinity groups. 0:21:47.320 --> 0:21:50.440 Co conspirators began planning direct action at Prairie Land. Co 0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:53.840 conspirators agreed to address in black bloc to provide cover 0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:57.640 for each other to commit crimes, including concealing the escape 0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:01.840 of those who committed destruction of govern property unquote. So 0:22:02.000 --> 0:22:04.160 this is how it relates to the actual legal definition 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:08.080 of terrorism, right, which is certain criminal acts intending to 0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:11.840 change or influence government policy by intimidation or coercion. Right. 0:22:11.880 --> 0:22:15.920 That's how the government uses the term terrorism. And this 0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:19.760 section of the plea written by the government shows how 0:22:19.760 --> 0:22:23.120 the government is self asserting the terrorism that happened at 0:22:23.160 --> 0:22:23.760 Prairie Land. 0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:24.760 Right. 0:22:26.000 --> 0:22:28.520 There's been a lot of headlines talking about the role 0:22:28.560 --> 0:22:33.000 of zines at this trial, and zines did play a 0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:36.040 two part role. Prosecution did argue that the presence of 0:22:36.240 --> 0:22:42.200 insurrectionary zines is indicative of some alignment with Antifa, even 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.160 if the possession of these zines itself is not a crime. 0:22:45.760 --> 0:22:50.120 The government's Antifa expert testified that owning political texts does 0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:55.360 not necessarily indicate group membership or personal allegiance to an ideology. 0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:59.080 Quote just because I own a copy of mind KOMF 0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:01.880 does that make make me a Nazi? If I own 0:23:02.000 --> 0:23:04.600 the Capital, does that make me a Marxist? 0:23:04.800 --> 0:23:05.320 Unquote? 0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:06.240 Sure? 0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:09.560 Stunning? Stunning A first example given here. 0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:13.919 Yeah, interesting call, but base, I mean, but also like 0:23:13.960 --> 0:23:16.240 a valid argument. Yeah, but this is true, right, Yes, 0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:20.840 and this is I've seen people framing the verdict as 0:23:21.440 --> 0:23:24.640 having zines or whatever, like it's an act of terrorism. 0:23:24.800 --> 0:23:27.359 That's not what it was decided here. 0:23:27.760 --> 0:23:29.919 No, what's happening here is a bit more complicated and 0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:31.240 harder to explain. 0:23:31.560 --> 0:23:31.800 Yes. 0:23:32.400 --> 0:23:35.199 The other relevancy of zines to this case relates to 0:23:35.240 --> 0:23:39.960 the concealing documents charges against des Estrata and his wife, 0:23:40.000 --> 0:23:43.560 Mari Rayuda, based on transporting a box of political zines 0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:46.360 from his wife's house to a friend's house in Denton, Texas. 0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:50.359 The government claims that Roda called des from jail on 0:23:50.520 --> 0:23:54.919 July sixth, instructing him to conceal evidence. Now, we don't 0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:59.080 have access to a full transcript of this call. The 0:23:59.119 --> 0:24:02.800 full call was into the jury, but sections of it 0:24:02.840 --> 0:24:06.879 were read or listened to in court. The most detailed 0:24:06.880 --> 0:24:09.640 account of the call segments played in court come from 0:24:09.680 --> 0:24:13.520 notes taken by the Prairie Land Defense Support Committee. The 0:24:13.680 --> 0:24:17.040 actual evidence exhibit is not yet available to be purchased 0:24:17.080 --> 0:24:20.080 on PACER. Not sure if it will be or if 0:24:20.080 --> 0:24:22.520 that'll just be after sentencing. But I tried to actually 0:24:22.520 --> 0:24:25.440 get the transcript with the call and it was not available. 0:24:26.280 --> 0:24:30.200 Des told his wife that he already talked with her mom, 0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:34.480 who she had previously called the day before. Rita talked 0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:39.199 about fed's confiscating property. FBI Special Agent Whitworth said in 0:24:39.240 --> 0:24:43.520 his opinion, Rieda was concerned about the evidence. Rieda then 0:24:43.600 --> 0:24:46.440 voiced concern for her car parked at the twenty four 0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:49.919 hundred block of fifty sixth Street, which had her phone 0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:54.160 stored inside. This was the staging site before she went 0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:57.920 to the action. She then instructed Dez to quote unquote, 0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:00.920 toe it. My phone is in the back. Do what 0:25:00.960 --> 0:25:05.320 you got to do, Just tow it unquote. The Support 0:25:05.359 --> 0:25:09.800 Committee wrote that quote. Prosecution replayed this section, characterizing it 0:25:09.840 --> 0:25:13.880 as Rida trying to get rid of evidence. Rada says 0:25:13.880 --> 0:25:16.880 to quote unquote retrieve her items from the vehicle, does 0:25:16.920 --> 0:25:19.119 not refer to her items using the word evidence, and 0:25:19.160 --> 0:25:24.679 does not say hide, destroy, or conceal. Des never actually 0:25:24.680 --> 0:25:27.280 got to this car or the phone. He explained that 0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:30.720 the vehicle would be repoed. But Rayeda also said in 0:25:30.720 --> 0:25:34.159 this call, quote move whatever you need to move in 0:25:34.280 --> 0:25:39.159 the house. The support committee wrote that quote. Prosecution argued 0:25:39.240 --> 0:25:42.960 this meant moving evidence. Defense noted she was talking about 0:25:42.960 --> 0:25:47.440 pets at the time. On the call, Des mentioned that 0:25:47.560 --> 0:25:50.640 he had already been at the house and replied, quote unquote, 0:25:50.760 --> 0:25:53.840 were good in reference to moving stuff from the house. 0:25:54.600 --> 0:25:57.679 The defense questioned how they could have conspired out of 0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:01.040 order right because the government claims there was a conspiracy 0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:05.159 to conceal documents, but Des here said that he moved 0:26:05.200 --> 0:26:08.359 things before he actually got on this phone call with 0:26:08.440 --> 0:26:12.679 his wife. The FBI answered that Des just had already 0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:16.840 acquired the necessary information to act, just not directly from 0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:20.960 his wife. Now, Des was found guilty of quote corruptly 0:26:21.040 --> 0:26:25.359 concealing a document or record by transporting a box containing 0:26:25.400 --> 0:26:30.240 numerous Antifa materials such as insurrection planning, anti law enforcement, 0:26:30.280 --> 0:26:35.200 anti government, and anti immigration enforcement documents and propaganda, intending 0:26:35.240 --> 0:26:38.399 to conceal the box's contents and impair its availability for 0:26:38.680 --> 0:26:43.480 use in a federal grand jury and federal criminal proceedings unquote, 0:26:43.840 --> 0:26:44.760 that's from the DOJ. 0:26:46.000 --> 0:26:47.560 He and his wife Rida. 0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:50.840 Were found guilty of conspiracy to conceal documents and other 0:26:50.920 --> 0:26:54.480 objects that would implicate Raeda in the riot and shooting 0:26:54.760 --> 0:26:57.800 at the Prairie Land facility also according to the Department 0:26:57.800 --> 0:27:01.520 of Justice. So basically this was an evidence tampering charge 0:27:01.640 --> 0:27:05.720 of concealing evidence charge. The actual presence of the zines 0:27:06.400 --> 0:27:11.000 was not the crime, but the government argued that the 0:27:11.119 --> 0:27:14.360 zines themselves were evidence, or that des suspected they could 0:27:14.440 --> 0:27:17.719 be evidence, and that's why he moved them from his 0:27:17.800 --> 0:27:20.960 wife's house to this other location. We're gonna go and 0:27:21.000 --> 0:27:24.320 rumber break and then return to discuss two more charges. 0:27:34.840 --> 0:27:35.680 Okay, we're back. 0:27:36.680 --> 0:27:39.600 Nine of the counts, count one, two, four, and five 0:27:39.640 --> 0:27:45.480 through ten cited Pinkerton versus United States nineteen forty six. 0:27:46.800 --> 0:27:47.200 Okay. 0:27:47.800 --> 0:27:49.760 The judge explained this to the jury by saying that 0:27:50.200 --> 0:27:54.080 a defendant can be criminally liable for the offenses committed 0:27:54.160 --> 0:27:58.480 by another co conspirator if the offense was quote reasonably 0:27:58.520 --> 0:28:02.919 foreseeable and committed and in furtherance of the conspiracy, with 0:28:03.119 --> 0:28:05.280 the judge writing in jury instructions. 0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:05.679 Quote. 0:28:06.000 --> 0:28:08.439 A defendant can be found guilty and held criminally liable 0:28:08.480 --> 0:28:11.960 for an offense under Pinkerton co conspirator liability, even if 0:28:11.960 --> 0:28:15.119 the defendant was not charged with conspiracy. It is not 0:28:15.160 --> 0:28:19.160 required that the conspiracy agrees to commit or facilitate each 0:28:19.200 --> 0:28:22.359 and every part of a substantive offense that is in 0:28:22.440 --> 0:28:25.760 furtherance of the conspiracy. A defendant must merely reach an 0:28:25.800 --> 0:28:29.879 agreement with the specific intent that the underlying criminal objective 0:28:29.920 --> 0:28:35.159 be achieved by the conspiracy unquote. Early in the trial, 0:28:35.280 --> 0:28:38.720 prosecution argued that song firing on the officers was quote 0:28:38.760 --> 0:28:43.080 unquote reasonably foreseeable based on the planning of the action 0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:47.680 and previous statements made by Song, But this Pickerton liability 0:28:47.720 --> 0:28:52.040 also applied to the other charges, including riot materials, port terrorism, 0:28:52.320 --> 0:28:55.920 and the explosive charge. The jury found all defendants that 0:28:56.000 --> 0:28:59.760 were charged guilty of counts one, two, three, and four 0:29:00.240 --> 0:29:05.080 that's riot material support and to explosive charges, but did 0:29:05.120 --> 0:29:09.000 not find the other defendants besides the Song, guilty of 0:29:09.120 --> 0:29:13.880 attempted murder or discharging a firearm. Using the Pinkerton co 0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:18.720 conspirator liability the prosecution wanted the other individuals at the 0:29:18.720 --> 0:29:22.760 protest to be found guilty of the charges of attempted 0:29:22.840 --> 0:29:25.560 murder using the liability, and the jury did not do that. 0:29:26.480 --> 0:29:32.080 Let's talk about two of the charges that now carry 0:29:32.400 --> 0:29:35.400 some worrying potential to be used against protesters in the 0:29:35.400 --> 0:29:39.400 future based on the precedent that this case sets. First, 0:29:39.560 --> 0:29:43.440 the conspiracy to use and carry in explosive and using 0:29:43.560 --> 0:29:47.400 uncarry in explosive during a riot. The only quote unquote 0:29:47.440 --> 0:29:53.440 explosives at this noise demonstration protest were fireworks, and the 0:29:53.520 --> 0:29:56.520 judge even confirmed that it was established that the fireworks 0:29:56.760 --> 0:30:01.800 caused no damage to the ice facility. Yet Steven Brennemann, 0:30:01.680 --> 0:30:06.560 ats Explosives Special Agent testified that fireworks meet the statutory 0:30:06.600 --> 0:30:11.040 definition of explosives under eighteen USC. Section eight four four 0:30:11.240 --> 0:30:17.040 IJ because the fireworks contain gunpowder as defined in the statute. 0:30:17.600 --> 0:30:21.320 This could have some pretty wide reaching implications. A lot 0:30:21.360 --> 0:30:25.440 of protests use fireworks. This was a protest on fourth 0:30:25.480 --> 0:30:29.680 of July, a day full of the use of fireworks. 0:30:30.320 --> 0:30:33.000 Robert and I have been to a protest covered a 0:30:33.000 --> 0:30:36.440 protest in twenty twenty outside of a federal government building 0:30:36.520 --> 0:30:39.320 that also had a lot of fireworks and fireworks shot 0:30:39.400 --> 0:30:43.760 towards the building. Yep, if that happened, now it's possible 0:30:43.840 --> 0:30:47.240 that people at this protest could be charged with this 0:30:47.480 --> 0:30:50.320 conspiracy to use and carry an explosive. 0:30:50.760 --> 0:30:54.120 Yeah, yeah, And I mean they've clearly been wanting arguing 0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:57.200 for this ever since twenty twenty, right, like, yeah, fire Well, 0:30:57.240 --> 0:30:59.400 because it wasn't just Portland, wasn't the only place where 0:30:59.400 --> 0:31:03.640 people were using fireworks. Generally, people were using fireworks as 0:31:03.760 --> 0:31:08.040 kind of a response to the police using flash flashbacks, 0:31:08.120 --> 0:31:11.840 right like it, it was a force equalizer. Both were 0:31:11.920 --> 0:31:14.960 used quite often. But you know, like I had so 0:31:15.040 --> 0:31:17.040 many of those fucking things blow up in my face 0:31:17.080 --> 0:31:19.040 and then every day, Like these are not bombs, These 0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:22.520 are not pipe bombs. Like it's not fun to have 0:31:22.640 --> 0:31:24.960 them blow up right next to you, but it's these 0:31:24.960 --> 0:31:27.000 are not like deadly explosives. 0:31:27.440 --> 0:31:28.120 Yes, agreed. 0:31:28.600 --> 0:31:33.200 And even the agents investigating this case mailed materials from 0:31:33.240 --> 0:31:37.400 these fireworks for testing using regular FedEx, not labeling them 0:31:37.680 --> 0:31:42.320 as possibly dangerous or explosive, and the government argued that 0:31:42.560 --> 0:31:44.920 it was because the amount in the FedEx package was 0:31:44.960 --> 0:31:47.520 just so small that they didn't need to label it 0:31:48.000 --> 0:31:49.360 as being dangerous. 0:31:49.760 --> 0:31:50.600 Yeah. 0:31:50.760 --> 0:31:56.040 Now, lastly, I need to discuss count two. It's providing 0:31:56.680 --> 0:32:00.240 material support to terrorists. This is eighteen us C. 0:32:00.880 --> 0:32:03.000 Two three three nine. 0:32:03.120 --> 0:32:04.840 This is the charge that a lot of people are 0:32:04.840 --> 0:32:08.280 talking about when they're mentioning someone has been convicted of 0:32:08.360 --> 0:32:12.360 terrorism for XYZ, for using signal, for wearing black block, 0:32:12.400 --> 0:32:15.800 for possessing zines. They're referring to this charge. Now, this 0:32:16.120 --> 0:32:22.040 statute has two sections. Section B refers to knowingly attempting to, 0:32:22.360 --> 0:32:27.040 conspiring to, or actually providing material support or resources to 0:32:27.480 --> 0:32:31.840 a designated foreign terrorist organization. This is not how the 0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:35.360 government used this statute, right, They're not considering Antifa a 0:32:35.400 --> 0:32:38.640 foreign terrorist organization for the purposes of this case. 0:32:38.680 --> 0:32:39.640 That's not how are using this. 0:32:40.400 --> 0:32:43.280 The defendants were charged with Section A alleging that they 0:32:43.400 --> 0:32:47.959 provided and attempted to provide material support and resources, and 0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:51.280 did conceal and disguise the nature of their material support 0:32:51.320 --> 0:32:56.880 and resources, including property, services, training, communications, equipment, weapons, explosives, personnel, 0:32:56.920 --> 0:33:02.040 including themselves, and transportation, and intending that they were to 0:33:02.200 --> 0:33:05.440 be used in preparation for, and in carrying out an 0:33:05.440 --> 0:33:10.400 offense identified as a federal crime of terrorism, or carrying 0:33:10.400 --> 0:33:13.000 out the concealment of an escape from an offense identified 0:33:13.080 --> 0:33:14.960 as a federal crime of terrorism. 0:33:15.240 --> 0:33:15.760 That's a lot. 0:33:16.560 --> 0:33:20.120 Yeah, that's a long sentence. This is certainly a very 0:33:20.160 --> 0:33:21.080 confusing charge. 0:33:21.360 --> 0:33:21.600 Yeah. 0:33:21.760 --> 0:33:26.560 Now, this statute lists at least twenty eight possible terrorism offenses. 0:33:27.400 --> 0:33:31.320 Now relevant to this case are three eighteen Usc. Eight 0:33:31.520 --> 0:33:35.280 four four f, which is maliciously attempting to damage government 0:33:35.320 --> 0:33:38.680 property by means of fire or an explosive. For the 0:33:38.680 --> 0:33:41.720 purpose of this case, that is throwing fireworks at a building. 0:33:42.320 --> 0:33:44.600 Eighteen USC. One three sixty one. 0:33:44.800 --> 0:33:48.520 That's wilful depredation against any property of the United States 0:33:48.840 --> 0:33:51.760 exceeding one thousand dollars. For the purposes of this case, 0:33:51.800 --> 0:33:54.200 this would be damage a government property in other ways 0:33:54.240 --> 0:33:59.120 like slashing tires, graffiti, that sort of thing, right. And finally, 0:33:59.160 --> 0:34:02.400 eighteen USC one one four killing or attempting to kill 0:34:02.440 --> 0:34:05.240 an officer or employee of the United States. 0:34:05.320 --> 0:34:06.640 That's pretty self explanatory. 0:34:07.120 --> 0:34:11.520 Yeah, So the government accused the defendants of providing material 0:34:11.600 --> 0:34:16.480 support in furtherance of committing these three crimes of terrorism, 0:34:16.600 --> 0:34:21.200 even if each individual defendant themselves did not actually commit 0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:24.640 one of these three crimes. To quote the jury instructions, 0:34:24.719 --> 0:34:27.600 quote the government does not have to prove all of 0:34:27.640 --> 0:34:30.560 these to you for you to return a guilty verdict 0:34:30.600 --> 0:34:34.040 on this charge. Proof beyond a reasonable doubt on one 0:34:34.320 --> 0:34:38.279 is enough, unquote. So the jury does not need to 0:34:38.320 --> 0:34:42.640 find proof that all of these three terrorism offenses were committed, 0:34:42.840 --> 0:34:46.480 that the explosives charge, the destruction government property charge, or 0:34:46.520 --> 0:34:49.359 the attempt at killing charge. They just need to find 0:34:49.360 --> 0:34:53.200 proof beyond a reasonable doubt that material support was provided 0:34:53.360 --> 0:34:57.040 for one of these. Part of what makes this charge 0:34:57.520 --> 0:35:00.440 kind of dangerous is that we don't I don't know 0:35:00.600 --> 0:35:05.960 which terroristic crime or crimes the jury found sufficient evidence for, 0:35:06.600 --> 0:35:10.600 or if they used different offenses for different defendants, Nor 0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:13.879 do we explicitly know what the jury thought qualified as 0:35:14.000 --> 0:35:17.680 material support. It could have been driving people to an action, 0:35:18.120 --> 0:35:21.239 mere presence at an action, wearing black clothes, providing money 0:35:21.239 --> 0:35:25.080 to buy fireworks, all those could be considered material support. 0:35:25.520 --> 0:35:28.520 But because of how the jury just writes guilty on 0:35:28.560 --> 0:35:32.640 this charge, we don't actually know what the specific justification 0:35:32.760 --> 0:35:33.839 they used to find this. 0:35:33.840 --> 0:35:34.440 To be true. 0:35:34.680 --> 0:35:37.560 Because the discharges so is so broad and can contain 0:35:37.960 --> 0:35:41.560 a lot of things that qualify as material support, including 0:35:41.640 --> 0:35:45.319 just being merely present at an action. Like personnel can 0:35:45.360 --> 0:35:48.640 be material support in furtherance of a federal crime of terrorism. 0:35:49.160 --> 0:35:53.360 So wearing black block at an action where no crime 0:35:53.480 --> 0:35:58.400 happens would not constitute terrorism, but wearing black clothes at 0:35:58.400 --> 0:36:02.080 a protest where someone does ideologically motivated crime of terrorism 0:36:02.320 --> 0:36:06.400 could be seen as materially supporting that crime or concealing 0:36:06.400 --> 0:36:10.160 the escape of the person who committed that crime. I 0:36:10.200 --> 0:36:13.760 want to quote from the judge's instructions to the jury 0:36:14.280 --> 0:36:15.960 regarding the First Amendment. 0:36:16.120 --> 0:36:16.560 Quote. 0:36:16.760 --> 0:36:21.200 Constitutionally protected speech can be properly used as evidence to 0:36:21.280 --> 0:36:25.319 prove a defendant's motive, intent, and knowledge to commit the 0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:30.480 offense or further the unlawful purpose of any jointly undertaken 0:36:30.560 --> 0:36:35.400 criminal activity. Stated another way, if a defendant's speech, expression, 0:36:35.480 --> 0:36:38.480 or associations were made with the intent to knowingly provide 0:36:38.719 --> 0:36:42.919 material support or resources to be used to prepare for 0:36:43.360 --> 0:36:45.840 or carry out a violation of federal law, or to 0:36:45.840 --> 0:36:48.160 carry out the concealment of an escape from such a violation, 0:36:48.760 --> 0:36:51.920 then the First Amendment would not provide a defense to 0:36:52.080 --> 0:36:52.960 that conduct. 0:36:53.239 --> 0:36:55.279 Unquote. 0:36:55.400 --> 0:36:59.360 So it is possible now using this case as precedent, 0:37:00.000 --> 0:37:03.040 if you're present at a protest before someone commits a 0:37:03.040 --> 0:37:06.400 serious crime and you have a tangential link to that person, 0:37:06.600 --> 0:37:09.520 you could also face similar charges. Yeah, if you're in 0:37:09.560 --> 0:37:12.120 a group chat with someone and then they commit a crime, 0:37:12.560 --> 0:37:15.399 you could face similar charges. This is not the first 0:37:15.440 --> 0:37:17.200 time the government has tried to use this sort of 0:37:17.239 --> 0:37:21.000 like conspiracy against a large group of protesters. Notably, they 0:37:21.000 --> 0:37:23.839 tried to do this in Atlanta unsuccessfully. But I think 0:37:23.880 --> 0:37:26.839 it's worth noting they were only unsuccessful on their rico 0:37:27.000 --> 0:37:31.120 charges because of procedural error, not because of actual evidence 0:37:31.200 --> 0:37:34.239 argued in court. It's that the prosecutor in that case 0:37:34.239 --> 0:37:37.200 did not actually have justification or the legal justification to 0:37:37.360 --> 0:37:39.719 bring this charge. So we never actually saw this get 0:37:39.960 --> 0:37:42.160 argued out in front of a jury and find the 0:37:42.200 --> 0:37:45.000 jury's verdict. But this is a part of an ongoing 0:37:45.040 --> 0:37:48.800 strategy the prosecution has done against protesters the past few years, 0:37:49.080 --> 0:37:50.560 and in this case successfully. 0:37:51.239 --> 0:37:54.319 Yeah, it's also like as bleak as this is, and 0:37:54.400 --> 0:37:58.280 this is very bleak, This is not the final say 0:37:58.440 --> 0:37:59.880 on how any case like this will be a ge 0:38:00.040 --> 0:38:02.680 dicated everywhere. This is a case in Texas, right, Like, 0:38:02.760 --> 0:38:05.799 this is not Yes, this isn't the fucking US Supreme Court. 0:38:05.840 --> 0:38:08.200 It's not even the Texas Supreme Court, Right, Yeah, not 0:38:08.320 --> 0:38:12.640 to minimize how fucking awful this is. But this does 0:38:12.680 --> 0:38:15.239 not mean this is how cases like this will be 0:38:15.280 --> 0:38:19.360 adjudicated every time they come to court everywhere in the US. 0:38:19.920 --> 0:38:23.040 Yes, And the vagueness of the material support charge is 0:38:23.080 --> 0:38:25.160 like a double edged sword, right one. It can be 0:38:25.239 --> 0:38:27.239 used in cases like this, and we don't actually know 0:38:27.600 --> 0:38:31.200 how they were exactly able to successfully argue that, because 0:38:31.280 --> 0:38:35.120 we don't know which specific federal offense of terrorism the 0:38:35.239 --> 0:38:39.400 jury found material support was provided for, or if it 0:38:39.440 --> 0:38:43.440 was multiple offenses. Nor do we know exactly which things 0:38:43.480 --> 0:38:48.440 the jury found constituted material support. But because we don't 0:38:48.480 --> 0:38:53.160 know these things, that means when prosecutors try to argue 0:38:53.160 --> 0:38:56.000 this charge again in the future, they kind of have 0:38:56.120 --> 0:38:58.960 to start from the ground floor all over again. It's 0:38:59.000 --> 0:39:03.440 harder to apply this exact precedent because the specific things 0:39:03.440 --> 0:39:06.960 that constituted material support and the specific crime that material 0:39:07.000 --> 0:39:11.560 support was provided for are sort of ambiguous. But the 0:39:11.640 --> 0:39:14.880 vagueness of this charge certainly leads to a lot of confusion. 0:39:15.600 --> 0:39:18.080 And you can now look at this case and see 0:39:18.120 --> 0:39:22.920 that legal possession of firearms or firearms training and possession 0:39:22.960 --> 0:39:27.400 of political paraphernalia could bolster ideological links between you and defendants, 0:39:27.440 --> 0:39:30.600 which could be used as evidence for a charge like this, 0:39:30.920 --> 0:39:34.840 right yep, or for conspiracy charges, and that obviously is worrying. 0:39:35.200 --> 0:39:38.440 Now a Song faces a minimum penalty of twenty years 0:39:38.480 --> 0:39:41.759 a maximum of life in prison. Other defendants of Prairie 0:39:41.840 --> 0:39:44.120 Land face sentences ranging from a minimum of ten years 0:39:44.120 --> 0:39:47.480 to up to sixty The husband convicted of concealing documents 0:39:47.520 --> 0:39:50.200 faces up to forty years in prison, and those who 0:39:50.280 --> 0:39:53.359 pled guilty face the sentences of up to fifteen years 0:39:53.360 --> 0:39:54.440 in federal prison. 0:39:54.480 --> 0:39:56.480 Though their cooperation may lower that. 0:39:57.239 --> 0:40:02.640 Another man faces charges for evidence tempering because he allegedly 0:40:02.680 --> 0:40:06.960 removed Prairie Land defendants from discord chats last year. But 0:40:07.160 --> 0:40:10.440 this is a state charge which will be going to 0:40:10.480 --> 0:40:12.080 trial later in April. 0:40:13.160 --> 0:40:15.880 Yeah, that'll be interesting to watch, I guess. Yeah, this 0:40:16.000 --> 0:40:18.640 is bleak. This is extremely worrying. That's part of the 0:40:18.800 --> 0:40:22.200 point is to scare people, to make people feel like 0:40:22.280 --> 0:40:27.360 they can't trust other activists, to make people scared to organize, 0:40:27.400 --> 0:40:30.719 to make them scared to be in group chats. And yeah, 0:40:30.719 --> 0:40:33.800 there's very real reason to be concerned as a result 0:40:33.800 --> 0:40:35.759 of this. However, none of this should be seen as 0:40:35.840 --> 0:40:38.719 like the final word on all of this stuff. And 0:40:38.760 --> 0:40:41.400 this certainly is not as simple as just having a 0:40:41.520 --> 0:40:45.520 zine or wearing black is terrorism. Now, that's not what 0:40:45.680 --> 0:40:46.759 was adjudicated here. 0:40:47.080 --> 0:40:50.040 No, these things do all relate to, or they're trying 0:40:50.040 --> 0:40:52.520 to be connected to, you know, actual crimes which did occur. 0:40:52.800 --> 0:40:55.560 And that's certainly the goal by the way that the 0:40:55.640 --> 0:40:58.600 right has, but that's not what they've achieved quite yet. 0:40:58.640 --> 0:41:01.400 I mean, it's definitely a way to try to scare 0:41:01.440 --> 0:41:04.440 people out of organizing in the sense that you know, 0:41:04.520 --> 0:41:09.000 you cannot be found a terrorist just by calling yourself 0:41:09.080 --> 0:41:12.040 like Antifa, just just by being Antifa alone by yourself, 0:41:12.320 --> 0:41:13.879 you're not going to be a terrorist. The same way 0:41:14.360 --> 0:41:17.760 you can't be put in jail just for being a Nazi. Right, 0:41:17.840 --> 0:41:20.120 But if you are part of a Nazi group chat 0:41:20.160 --> 0:41:22.399 where you're planning an action and then a Nazi does 0:41:22.440 --> 0:41:25.920 something at the at the action, like shooting a power substation, 0:41:26.400 --> 0:41:29.680 then that Nazi and the other Nazis that he's organizing with, 0:41:29.760 --> 0:41:33.040 you know, could face terrorism charges. That That is how 0:41:33.120 --> 0:41:36.160 those sorts of like cases work, and a very similar 0:41:36.200 --> 0:41:37.239 thing is being done here. 0:41:38.680 --> 0:41:39.520 It's it's not the. 0:41:39.520 --> 0:41:44.239 Actual like political ideology necessarily at trial, but organizing with 0:41:44.280 --> 0:41:47.960 other people in furtherance of a political ideology is what 0:41:48.080 --> 0:41:49.640 the government is trying to suppress. 0:41:50.080 --> 0:41:50.279 Yep. 0:41:51.080 --> 0:41:54.359 Cool, Well, I don't have anything else to add at 0:41:54.360 --> 0:41:54.840 this point. 0:41:55.160 --> 0:41:59.160 You know, no way will certainly cover this. One's sentencing 0:41:59.239 --> 0:42:01.720 happens later this year in June. 0:42:02.200 --> 0:42:06.000 Be careful. And if you're in a group chat with 0:42:06.200 --> 0:42:08.719 somebody who keeps writing shit that you're like, wow, that 0:42:08.760 --> 0:42:11.120 would be a terrible thing to hear read back in court, 0:42:11.280 --> 0:42:14.920 really reconsider, say, in a group chat with that person. 0:42:16.040 --> 0:42:19.319 Just be wary about what you say and what other 0:42:19.360 --> 0:42:23.920 people say to you online, not just because of court stuff, 0:42:24.040 --> 0:42:27.200 because like, if somebody is being incredibly reckless with the 0:42:27.239 --> 0:42:30.280 things that they are putting down and writing, they're probably 0:42:30.280 --> 0:42:33.560 being reckless in other areas. Just be careful, you know, folks, 0:42:33.600 --> 0:42:34.240 Be careful. 0:42:50.360 --> 0:42:53.080 I'm Michael Phillips, an historian and the author of a 0:42:53.160 --> 0:42:57.000 book about racism in Dallas called White Metropolis, and the 0:42:57.080 --> 0:43:00.680 co author with longtime journalists Betsy Freeoff, of the history 0:43:00.719 --> 0:43:03.719 of eugenics in Texas called The Purifying Knife. 0:43:03.920 --> 0:43:06.960 I'm Stephen Monchelli. I'm a journalist who specializes in covering 0:43:07.000 --> 0:43:10.160 political extremism and far right internet culture for The Texas Observer, 0:43:10.560 --> 0:43:14.240 The Barbed Wire, and other publications. Today we'll be talking 0:43:14.320 --> 0:43:17.279 about the Fifth Circuit, and we'll start with a man 0:43:17.400 --> 0:43:20.360 named James Hoe, who, on what might have been the 0:43:20.360 --> 0:43:23.239 biggest day of his judicial career so far, couldn't have 0:43:23.280 --> 0:43:24.880 picked a creepier setting. 0:43:25.400 --> 0:43:28.760 The fifty two year old's legal career has rocketed forward 0:43:28.840 --> 0:43:33.840 at light speed. Born in Taiwan and a graduate of Stanford, 0:43:34.239 --> 0:43:36.280 he signed up as an attorney for the white shoe 0:43:36.320 --> 0:43:40.480 law firm Gibson Dunn in California in two thousand. At 0:43:40.480 --> 0:43:43.799 age twenty seven, he joined a high powered legal team 0:43:43.840 --> 0:43:46.440 that forever shaped the history of the United States. 0:43:48.520 --> 0:43:52.640 From NBC News in Washington, this is Meet the Press 0:43:53.000 --> 0:43:56.120 with Tim Russer Our Issues. 0:43:56.200 --> 0:44:00.239 This Sunday, thirty six days after the election. 0:44:00.520 --> 0:44:03.839 Al Gore ends his campaign. For the sake of our 0:44:03.960 --> 0:44:06.480 unity as a people and the strength of our democracy, 0:44:07.120 --> 0:44:08.400 I offer my concession. 0:44:08.880 --> 0:44:09.600 George W. 0:44:09.680 --> 0:44:13.920 Bush will be the forty third President of the United States. 0:44:14.160 --> 0:44:16.719 I'm thankful to the American people for the great privilege 0:44:16.760 --> 0:44:20.160 of being able to serve as your next president. 0:44:21.560 --> 0:44:25.840 Young and almost entirely unknown outside of legal circles. James 0:44:25.840 --> 0:44:28.279 Hoe joined some of the most famous conservative lawyers in 0:44:28.320 --> 0:44:30.719 the country in the year two thousand to convince the 0:44:30.800 --> 0:44:34.520 United States Supreme Court to stop the hotly contested presidential 0:44:34.560 --> 0:44:38.440 vote count in Florida. That move elevated President George W. 0:44:38.520 --> 0:44:41.839 Bush to the White House. In this effort, James Hoe 0:44:41.920 --> 0:44:44.839 rubbed shoulders with right wing luminaries like the man who 0:44:44.960 --> 0:44:47.840 in five years would be the Chief Justice of the 0:44:47.840 --> 0:44:49.640 Supreme Court, John Roberts. 0:44:50.480 --> 0:44:55.280 Ho rocketed to judicial superstardom. He clerked for Supreme Court 0:44:55.440 --> 0:44:58.759 Justice Clarence Thomas for a couple of years, then from 0:44:58.840 --> 0:45:00.880 two thousand and eight to two th and ten, he 0:45:01.000 --> 0:45:05.600 succeeded Ted Cruz as Solicitor General of Texas. There he 0:45:05.680 --> 0:45:08.600 handled appeals filed by the state in cases heard by 0:45:08.640 --> 0:45:11.200 the state Supreme Court and the U. S Supreme Court. 0:45:11.760 --> 0:45:15.640 On January four, twenty eighteen, Hose celebrated his next rapid 0:45:15.680 --> 0:45:18.600 climb up the judicial ladder when he has sworn as 0:45:18.640 --> 0:45:21.439 the newest judge on the United States Fifth Circuit Court 0:45:21.440 --> 0:45:26.640 of Appeals, which oversees federal cases that are originating Texas, Mississippi, 0:45:26.680 --> 0:45:27.600 and Louisiana. 0:45:28.239 --> 0:45:31.440 Hooe'se swearing in ceremony took place at the mansion of 0:45:31.520 --> 0:45:35.440 Dallas real estate billionaire Harlan Crowe. You've probably heard that 0:45:35.560 --> 0:45:38.560 name before because Crow has made news with the revelation 0:45:38.719 --> 0:45:42.280 that he lavished hundreds of thousands of dollars in gifts 0:45:42.280 --> 0:45:46.280 and favors on Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, including cruises 0:45:46.320 --> 0:45:49.280 to Indonesian islands on the businessman's one hundred and sixty 0:45:49.320 --> 0:45:52.760 two foot superyacht and a one hundred and nineteen thousand 0:45:52.840 --> 0:45:56.640 dollars bible that once belonged to leading abolitionist Frederick Douglass. 0:45:57.520 --> 0:46:00.360 Crowe flew Thomas to Dallas on his private jet so 0:46:00.440 --> 0:46:03.640 the Justice could swear in his former clerk. The surroundings 0:46:03.680 --> 0:46:09.360 included Crowe's unnerving souvenirs, once described on the program Inside Edition. 0:46:10.000 --> 0:46:13.400 Questions are being raised today about Supreme Court Justice Clarence 0:46:13.440 --> 0:46:18.160 Thomas's friendship with a billionaire who collects Nazi memorabilia. Published 0:46:18.160 --> 0:46:23.120 reports say Dallas tycoon Harlan Crowe's controversial collection includes Hitler's 0:46:23.160 --> 0:46:28.400 notorious autobiography Mind Komfe, signed by Hitler, oil paintings by Hitler, 0:46:28.600 --> 0:46:32.560 and Lennon Napkins embroidered with the Nazi swastika. The collection 0:46:32.719 --> 0:46:35.560 is housed at Crowe's mansion in Dallas. I can't get 0:46:35.600 --> 0:46:38.879 over the collection of Nazi memorabilia, said one guest who 0:46:38.880 --> 0:46:41.720 saw the Nazi treasure trove. You sort of just gasp 0:46:41.760 --> 0:46:43.880 when you walk into the room. 0:46:44.200 --> 0:46:47.600 The estate also includes what Crow has called the Garden 0:46:47.640 --> 0:46:52.359 of Evil, a collection of imposing statues of past authoritarian 0:46:52.440 --> 0:46:58.920 leaders like Vladimir Lenin, Joseph Stalin, Mauzedung, Nikolai Chacchescu, the 0:46:59.000 --> 0:47:03.160 eccentric Romaine and tyrant violently deposed in nineteen eighty nine, 0:47:03.560 --> 0:47:06.759 as well as a bust of Gavrilla Prinsep, the Bosnian 0:47:06.800 --> 0:47:10.680 Serb nationalist who triggered World War One with his assassination 0:47:11.320 --> 0:47:15.520 of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand. Crow claims that his clutch 0:47:15.640 --> 0:47:18.719 is somehow a statement of his hatred for both communism 0:47:18.800 --> 0:47:19.640 and fascism. 0:47:20.480 --> 0:47:24.360 The creepy artwork perhaps foreshadowed Hoe's ominous career in the 0:47:24.400 --> 0:47:27.160 Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. On that bench, he has 0:47:27.200 --> 0:47:30.960 become infamous for weirdly written and extreme opinions in which 0:47:30.960 --> 0:47:33.040 he has suggested that the children of migrants might not 0:47:33.080 --> 0:47:36.160 be eligible for birthright citizenship because the country is being 0:47:36.239 --> 0:47:41.560 quote invaded, and that abortion actually somehow injures doctors because 0:47:41.560 --> 0:47:45.680 they are denied the intense pleasure of delivering babies. Those 0:47:45.719 --> 0:47:48.000 antics might lead him to one day occupy a seat 0:47:48.040 --> 0:47:51.040 on the United States Supreme Court, potentially succeeding Thomas or 0:47:51.080 --> 0:47:54.880 Samuel Alito, the two oldest justices on the nation's highest bench. 0:47:55.520 --> 0:47:58.000 In this episode, we'll look at the career of Judge 0:47:58.080 --> 0:48:02.040 James hoe, is alarming right way judicial activism, and the 0:48:02.080 --> 0:48:05.360 strange history of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which 0:48:05.400 --> 0:48:08.239 since the Reagan administration has transformed for one of the 0:48:08.280 --> 0:48:11.520 most liberal judicial bodies in the country too, perhaps the 0:48:11.560 --> 0:48:12.840 scariest court in America. 0:48:13.680 --> 0:48:16.719 Given its current reactionary reputation, it's a bit ironic. The 0:48:16.760 --> 0:48:19.879 Fifth Circuit Court convenes in a New Orleans courthouse named 0:48:19.880 --> 0:48:24.120 after John Minor Wisdom, a New Orleans native who formed 0:48:24.160 --> 0:48:27.160 a critical part of a quartet of liberal judges known 0:48:27.239 --> 0:48:30.319 simply as the Four who in the nineteen fifties and 0:48:30.400 --> 0:48:34.800 nineteen sixties issued a series of revolutionary rulings that advanced 0:48:34.800 --> 0:48:39.640 the civil rights movement. President Dwight Eisenhower appointed Wisdom to 0:48:39.680 --> 0:48:42.400 the bench in nineteen fifty seven. He quickly formed an 0:48:42.400 --> 0:48:44.760 alliance with three other liberal judges on the Fifth Circuit, 0:48:45.200 --> 0:48:48.440 Albert P. Tuttle of Georgia, John R. Brown of Texas, 0:48:48.880 --> 0:48:52.959 and Richard T. Rivis of Alabama. Rivers was the only 0:48:53.000 --> 0:48:55.399 Democrat on the squad that came to be known as 0:48:55.480 --> 0:48:59.440 the Fifth Fore, these liberals typically prevailed over the conservatives 0:48:59.560 --> 0:49:02.160 serving on the Fifth Circuit, and at that point, the 0:49:02.160 --> 0:49:04.880 Fifth Circuit heard cases from states that spread across the 0:49:04.880 --> 0:49:09.920 core of the one time Confederacy, including Louisiana, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, 0:49:09.960 --> 0:49:13.120 and Georgia. This placed the Fifth boar on the front 0:49:13.160 --> 0:49:16.319 lines of the civil rights struggle. In nineteen fifty eight, 0:49:16.680 --> 0:49:20.000 the Fifth Circuit began shipping away at Jim Crow. The 0:49:20.040 --> 0:49:23.520 court heard the case of Joe Dorsey Junior of New Orleans, 0:49:23.600 --> 0:49:27.520 challenging the Louisiana law that outlawed matches between black and 0:49:27.560 --> 0:49:32.319 white boxers. Wisdom wrote the majority opinion, which declared such 0:49:32.440 --> 0:49:35.600 legislation made a mockery of the equal protection clause of 0:49:35.600 --> 0:49:40.200 the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. That opinion 0:49:40.719 --> 0:49:43.600 like many, Wisdom wrote, would be upheld the following year 0:49:43.640 --> 0:49:46.320 by the Supreme Court that was presided over by Chief 0:49:46.440 --> 0:49:51.320 Justice Earl Warren. Louisiana integrated boxing matches, but for years 0:49:51.360 --> 0:49:56.200 outside the ring, the arenas divided into black and white seating. 0:49:57.239 --> 0:50:00.640 In the coming years, the Fifth Circuit Forest and parish 0:50:00.640 --> 0:50:03.680 in Louisiana to reopen their schools. After that school board 0:50:03.760 --> 0:50:07.399 voted to close all campuses to prevent integration. The Fifth 0:50:07.400 --> 0:50:10.359 Circuit Court ordered the University of Mississippi to admit an 0:50:10.360 --> 0:50:14.760 African American student, James Meredith. In his opinion, Wisdom wrote 0:50:14.760 --> 0:50:18.000 that Ole miss as it's known had engaged in a 0:50:18.080 --> 0:50:24.400 carefully calculated campaign of delay, harassment, and masterly inactivity. Riots 0:50:24.400 --> 0:50:27.120 broke out as federal troops had to enforce the order. 0:50:32.680 --> 0:50:36.360 James H. Meredith is formally enrolled at the University of Mississippi, 0:50:36.719 --> 0:50:39.960 ending one chapter in the federal government's efforts to desegregate 0:50:39.960 --> 0:50:42.879 the university. The town of Oxford is an armed camp 0:50:43.200 --> 0:50:46.320 following riots that accompanied the registration of the first Negro 0:50:46.680 --> 0:50:50.000 in the university's one hundred and eighteen year history. Much 0:50:50.000 --> 0:50:53.320 of this film record was destroyed when our cameraman Gordon 0:50:53.400 --> 0:50:56.440 Yoder was attacked, but he did salvage. Pictures of Governor 0:50:56.520 --> 0:50:59.560 Ross Barnett at the scene. The governor thought the court 0:50:59.640 --> 0:51:03.839 order long and bitterly before modifying his stad saying Mississippi 0:51:03.880 --> 0:51:11.279 was overpowered by the federal government. President Kennedy appealed to 0:51:11.280 --> 0:51:13.160 the students and to the people of the state to 0:51:13.239 --> 0:51:16.000 comply peacefully with the law and bring the crisis to 0:51:16.040 --> 0:51:18.960 an end. Even as he talked, riots were breaking out 0:51:19.000 --> 0:51:23.719 in Oxford. Americans are free, in sure to disagree with 0:51:23.760 --> 0:51:25.960 the law, but not to disobey it. 0:51:27.200 --> 0:51:29.239 For any government of laws and not of man. 0:51:29.920 --> 0:51:36.680 No man, however prominent or powerful, and no mob, however 0:51:36.840 --> 0:51:41.239 unruly or boisterous, is entitled to defy a. 0:51:41.239 --> 0:51:41.919 Court of law. 0:51:42.920 --> 0:51:46.440 In nineteen sixty three, the Fifth Circuit ordered the desegregation 0:51:46.480 --> 0:51:51.040 of community centers, cultural centers, playgrounds, and public parks. The 0:51:51.120 --> 0:51:54.560 next year, the Court ruled that jury selection system in 0:51:54.719 --> 0:51:58.279 Orleans Paris, where as Wisdom noted, no black had ever 0:51:58.320 --> 0:52:02.000 sit on his grand jury or trial jury panel, violated 0:52:02.040 --> 0:52:06.120 the Constitution. Two years after that, the Fifth Circuit overturned 0:52:06.320 --> 0:52:10.160 Louisiana's photo registration literacy tests, which required a citizen to 0:52:10.200 --> 0:52:13.399 pass in the judgment of white officials a written test 0:52:13.480 --> 0:52:18.760 on the Constitution. Such laws had long disenfranchised impoverished African 0:52:18.800 --> 0:52:20.000 Americans and whites. 0:52:20.640 --> 0:52:24.680 Perhaps Wisdom's most significant opinion came with the nineteen sixty 0:52:24.719 --> 0:52:28.160 eight United States v. Jefferson case, which blocked states from 0:52:28.200 --> 0:52:31.240 avoiding compliance with the Brown v. Board of Education decision 0:52:31.480 --> 0:52:34.719 by setting up so called quote school choice plans in 0:52:34.760 --> 0:52:38.000 which parents allegedly freely chose to send their children to 0:52:38.239 --> 0:52:39.280 segregated schools. 0:52:39.719 --> 0:52:44.760 Wisdom wrote, the Constitution is both color blind and color 0:52:45.000 --> 0:52:50.319 conscious to avoid conflict with the equal Protection clause, a 0:52:50.400 --> 0:52:55.600 classification that denies a benefit, causes harm, or imposes a 0:52:55.640 --> 0:52:59.880 burden must not be based on race. In that sense, 0:53:00.200 --> 0:53:05.200 the Constitution is color blind, but the Constitution is color conscious. 0:53:05.600 --> 0:53:11.080 To prevent discrimination from being perpetuated and to undo the 0:53:11.120 --> 0:53:13.359 effects of past discrimination. 0:53:14.239 --> 0:53:17.640 Quitting a phrase that would later ignite fierce white backlash 0:53:17.680 --> 0:53:21.840 against civil rights North and South, Wisdom said school systems 0:53:21.880 --> 0:53:25.399 needed to move beyond ostensibly not discriminating and to take 0:53:25.520 --> 0:53:30.719 quote affirmative action to bring about a unitary, non racial system. 0:53:31.160 --> 0:53:34.480 That phrase would provide a legal foundation for school bussing 0:53:34.880 --> 0:53:38.880 as a means of genuinely integrating schools, and also introduced 0:53:38.880 --> 0:53:43.160 the concept of affirmative action hiring practices in other stubborn 0:53:43.239 --> 0:53:44.880 aspects of racial exclusion. 0:53:45.520 --> 0:53:48.440 The Fifth circuits record of judicial progressivism continued through the 0:53:48.520 --> 0:53:51.920 nineteen seventies. A nineteen seventy six decision by the Fifth Circuit, 0:53:51.960 --> 0:53:55.520 for instance, required public colleges and universities in Texas to 0:53:55.560 --> 0:54:00.320 recognize gay student organizations. Meanwhile, moderate Republicans tried to persuade 0:54:00.400 --> 0:54:04.360 Richard Nixon to nominate Wisdom for the United States Supreme Court. However, 0:54:04.440 --> 0:54:07.520 Attorney General John Mitchell, who later went to prison for 0:54:07.560 --> 0:54:11.319 his role in the Watergates scandal, squashed the idea. He 0:54:11.360 --> 0:54:14.359 complained that the judge was a damn left winger who 0:54:14.360 --> 0:54:17.560 would specially be as bad as the famously liberal Chief 0:54:17.719 --> 0:54:22.160 Justice Warren. President Clinton would give Wisdom the Presidential Medal 0:54:22.160 --> 0:54:25.920 of Freedom in nineteen ninety three. Wisdom died six years later. 0:54:26.520 --> 0:54:30.200 If he miraculously returned, Wisdom would not recognize the Appeals 0:54:30.200 --> 0:54:32.080 Court that he spent so much of his life serving. 0:54:32.560 --> 0:54:35.160 We'll talk about the transformation of the Fifth Circuit of Appeals, 0:54:35.600 --> 0:54:38.120 the extreme and disturbing decisions that has made since the 0:54:38.160 --> 0:54:40.480 start of the Trump era and the career of one 0:54:40.480 --> 0:54:43.359 of that court's most infamous judges, when we come back 0:54:43.360 --> 0:54:57.399 from our hopefully less infamous sponsors. In nineteen eighty one, 0:54:57.760 --> 0:55:01.799 the federal judiciary was reorganized. The Fifth Circuit Court now 0:55:01.840 --> 0:55:05.879 heard appeals only from Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. A new 0:55:05.960 --> 0:55:09.840 eleventh Circuit Court. Now here's cases from Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. 0:55:10.520 --> 0:55:13.880 We should provide a hopefully brief civics lesson here. The 0:55:13.880 --> 0:55:17.880 Fifth Court consists of seventeen active judges and nine senior judges. 0:55:18.400 --> 0:55:21.400 When a side loses a case in a federal district court, 0:55:21.440 --> 0:55:23.719 they can appeal to a circuit court, where the case 0:55:23.760 --> 0:55:26.480 is heard by a three judge panel. In some cases, 0:55:26.520 --> 0:55:28.640 if one side disagrees with the judgment of the panel, 0:55:28.680 --> 0:55:31.680 they may appeal the decision to the full judicial court. 0:55:32.360 --> 0:55:36.200 Among the act of judges, those appointed by Republican presidents 0:55:36.239 --> 0:55:39.720 outnumber those appointed by Democrats by a margin of twelve 0:55:39.800 --> 0:55:42.960 to five. Donald Trump appointed more than a third of 0:55:43.000 --> 0:55:47.239 these judges, six in all, each of course, could serve 0:55:47.320 --> 0:55:48.480 on the court for the rest. 0:55:48.320 --> 0:55:49.680 Of their life. 0:55:49.760 --> 0:55:52.799 The Fifth Circuit also has eight senior judges who are 0:55:52.840 --> 0:55:56.640 semi retired but preside over a limited number of cases. 0:55:57.120 --> 0:56:01.000 Six of them were also appointed by Republican presidents, stretching 0:56:01.040 --> 0:56:02.160 back to Ronald Reagan. 0:56:02.920 --> 0:56:06.799 Even in that hyper conservative company, James Hoe has stood out. 0:56:07.440 --> 0:56:10.520 Mike Davis, the president of the Pro Trump Article three Project, 0:56:10.960 --> 0:56:14.399 a group dedicated to pushing federal courts further right, has said, 0:56:14.480 --> 0:56:19.000 quote on every crucial but controversial legal issue, Jim Hoe 0:56:19.040 --> 0:56:21.040 is constantly the tip of the spear. 0:56:22.040 --> 0:56:25.720 It has been a cliche among the American right wingers 0:56:25.719 --> 0:56:28.600 that liberal judges fin the time of Franklin Roosevelt Laan 0:56:29.120 --> 0:56:32.880 had become judicial activists for abusing their positions on the 0:56:32.880 --> 0:56:37.240 bench to advance their political agendas rather than impartially ruling 0:56:37.239 --> 0:56:42.800 on the law. Calling balls and strikes. Hoe's open political advocacy, however, 0:56:42.880 --> 0:56:46.600 has raised no alarms for those saying presume advocates for 0:56:46.719 --> 0:56:48.000 judicial neutrality. 0:56:48.719 --> 0:56:52.200 While he served as Texas's Solicitor General, Hoe did pro 0:56:52.320 --> 0:56:55.920 bono work for the First Liberty Institute, a Christian right 0:56:56.040 --> 0:57:00.359 organization headquartered in Plano, Texas, just north of Dallas, that 0:57:00.400 --> 0:57:03.000 won a case for a Washington State high school football 0:57:03.040 --> 0:57:06.319 coach who was fired because he violated school policy by 0:57:06.400 --> 0:57:09.640 leading his team in prayer after each game. The group 0:57:09.680 --> 0:57:13.040 has also represented bakers who refused to make wedding cakes 0:57:13.120 --> 0:57:14.360 for same sex couples. 0:57:14.920 --> 0:57:17.560 As a judge, Hoe led a boycott of legal clerks 0:57:17.600 --> 0:57:21.560 who graduated from Yale Law School to punish that institution 0:57:21.760 --> 0:57:26.480 for its supposed leftists, cancel culture and intolerance and conservative views. 0:57:27.200 --> 0:57:30.560 During his speech to the far right Heritage Foundation, the 0:57:30.600 --> 0:57:34.480 authors of Project twenty twenty five, Hoe ridiculed lawyers with 0:57:34.920 --> 0:57:40.240 fancy credentials, fancy law schools, fancy clerkships, fancy law firms, 0:57:40.240 --> 0:57:44.360 and government jobs. He claimed that issued liberal opinions for 0:57:44.400 --> 0:57:46.439 no other purpose than winning popularity. 0:57:47.120 --> 0:57:47.880 He arged young. 0:57:47.720 --> 0:57:52.840 Conservatives to assert themselves against the supposed popularity of political correctness. 0:57:53.600 --> 0:57:55.640 In addition to serving on the bench, Ho could be 0:57:55.720 --> 0:57:59.680 considered an activist, particularly on culture war issues like abortion. 0:58:00.320 --> 0:58:04.160 He's condemned abortion as the quote immoral, tragic, and violent 0:58:04.200 --> 0:58:07.920 taking of innocent human life. In twenty eighteen, he upheld 0:58:07.920 --> 0:58:10.400 a Texas law that required the cremation or burial of 0:58:10.440 --> 0:58:14.480 fetal remains, a potentially costly burden for women receiving medical treatment, 0:58:15.160 --> 0:58:17.800 and the state of Texas argued that any potential financial 0:58:17.800 --> 0:58:21.200 burdens to women or clinics were irrelevant, since the Texas 0:58:21.200 --> 0:58:23.720 Conference of Catholic Bishops made a pledge to bury the 0:58:23.760 --> 0:58:27.080 remains for low cost or even for free. Such a promise, 0:58:27.120 --> 0:58:28.960 of course, was not legally binding. 0:58:29.480 --> 0:58:31.960 A district court overturned the law, but Hoe in the 0:58:32.000 --> 0:58:37.840 Fifths Circuit reinstated it, arguing that coarse burial protected religious 0:58:37.840 --> 0:58:42.720 freedom of the Catholic Bishops. Quote the First Amendment expressly 0:58:42.800 --> 0:58:46.440 guarantees the free exercise of religion, including the right of 0:58:46.480 --> 0:58:50.520 bishops to express their profound objection to the moral tragedy 0:58:50.520 --> 0:58:54.560 of abortion, Hoe wrote, Texas still requires that fetal remains 0:58:54.720 --> 0:58:59.680 receive burial or cremation. As we'll explain later, it's not 0:58:59.720 --> 0:59:02.000 only on the issue of abortion that Hoe has staked 0:59:02.000 --> 0:59:05.920 out in extreme position. In Man's first secessions, the Fifth 0:59:05.920 --> 0:59:08.880 Circuit Court, by an eight to seven vote, narrowly avoided 0:59:08.920 --> 0:59:13.320 overturning a federal gun law that prohibited interstate gun sales. 0:59:14.120 --> 0:59:17.840 Hoe offered a bitter descent, quoting his mentor Clarence Thomas, 0:59:18.000 --> 0:59:21.520 complaining that in spite of the wide open access to 0:59:21.560 --> 0:59:25.280 firearms in this country, the Second Amendment had become quote 0:59:25.560 --> 0:59:29.840 a second class right. In his opinion, how ridiculed advocates 0:59:29.840 --> 0:59:33.640 of gun control is suffering from hoplophobia the irrational fear 0:59:33.720 --> 0:59:35.240 of guns. 0:59:35.040 --> 0:59:38.720 Hoe in the entire Fifth Circuit achieved national infamy after 0:59:38.760 --> 0:59:41.200 the Supreme Court raised almost half a century of abortion 0:59:41.320 --> 0:59:44.120 rights when it overturned the Roe Vwaid decision in the 0:59:44.160 --> 0:59:48.200 Dobbs Vwomen's Health Organization case on June twenty fourth, twenty 0:59:48.240 --> 0:59:50.600 twenty two. A little more than a year after that 0:59:50.680 --> 0:59:54.160 landmark case, on August sixteenth, twenty twenty three, the Fifth 0:59:54.160 --> 0:59:58.040 Circuit upheld tightened access for women to mifipristone, the so 0:59:58.160 --> 1:00:00.520 called abortion pill, which accounts from more than half of 1:00:00.560 --> 1:00:04.240 all terminated pregnancies in the United States. Originally approved by 1:00:04.240 --> 1:00:06.960 the Food and Drug Administration in two thousand but only 1:00:06.960 --> 1:00:10.440 for prescription by hospitals and other medical facilities, the FDA 1:00:10.520 --> 1:00:13.520 expanded access to the medication in twenty sixteen and gave 1:00:13.640 --> 1:00:17.720 doctors the right to directly prescribe mifipriston in response to 1:00:17.760 --> 1:00:20.360 the COVID nineteen pandemic. Starting in twenty twenty one, women 1:00:20.400 --> 1:00:21.560 could receive it through the mail. 1:00:22.480 --> 1:00:26.360 In twenty twenty for an anti abortion organization, the Alliance 1:00:26.400 --> 1:00:32.000 or Hippocratic Medicine intentionally incorporated in twenty twenty two and Amarillo, 1:00:32.200 --> 1:00:35.360 which placed it in the jurisdiction of the famously anti 1:00:35.400 --> 1:00:40.480 abortion Federal District Judge Matthew J. Kasmeric. Like Judge Hoe, 1:00:40.720 --> 1:00:44.920 Cosmeric belonged to the First Liberty Institute. While being considered 1:00:44.920 --> 1:00:47.800 for the federal bench, he unsuccessfully tried to conceal his 1:00:47.920 --> 1:00:51.240 authorship of legal articles on gay rights he thought might 1:00:51.320 --> 1:00:55.520 jeopardize approval of his domination by the US Senate. Cosmeric 1:00:55.600 --> 1:00:59.440 has described gay and trans people as mentally disordered. The 1:00:59.480 --> 1:01:03.520 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine filed student Caasmerics Court seeking to 1:01:03.560 --> 1:01:06.960 overturn the FDA's approval of mythi press Stone, even though 1:01:07.040 --> 1:01:10.680 decades of research had demonstrated its safety and its effectiveness 1:01:10.720 --> 1:01:14.200 for treating Cushing syndrome, a severe endocrine disorder. 1:01:15.080 --> 1:01:16.960 None of the doctors in the Alliance had ever been 1:01:17.000 --> 1:01:18.760 involved in a medical case in which the use of 1:01:18.760 --> 1:01:22.600 mifiprestone had been considered. In his opinion, Kasmiric showed his 1:01:22.680 --> 1:01:26.240 disdain for medical personnel providing women reproductive care, referring to 1:01:26.280 --> 1:01:30.640 them as quote abortionists and called terminating pregnancy through medication quote, 1:01:30.680 --> 1:01:33.120 starving the unborn human until death. 1:01:33.720 --> 1:01:37.920 Courts require that parties have what just is called standing 1:01:38.120 --> 1:01:41.160 in order to file a lawsuit. That means, for instance, 1:01:41.160 --> 1:01:44.040 that one party has been in some way directly injured 1:01:44.040 --> 1:01:47.479 by the other party. President Joe Biden's Food and Drug 1:01:47.480 --> 1:01:50.640 Administra I should question how the doctors in the Alliance 1:01:50.680 --> 1:01:53.880 for Hippocratic Medicine had in any way been directly harmed 1:01:53.880 --> 1:01:58.120 Because women have access to abortion medications, Chasmeric found a 1:01:58.120 --> 1:02:01.800 fans full way to grant the alliance a right to sue. 1:02:02.160 --> 1:02:06.160 He claimed that treating the rare complications from Mytha pristone 1:02:06.240 --> 1:02:10.400 overwhelmed hospitals in placed quote enormous pressure and stress on 1:02:10.480 --> 1:02:15.960 the doctors during emergencies and complications. After granting the alliance standing, 1:02:16.280 --> 1:02:20.040 Chasmeric issued a preliminary injunction suspending the FDA's approval of 1:02:20.080 --> 1:02:22.800 the drug. The decision would go into effect in seven 1:02:22.880 --> 1:02:24.919 days in order to give the federal government a chance 1:02:24.960 --> 1:02:28.080 to file an appeal. In his decision, Cosmeric cited two 1:02:28.120 --> 1:02:30.880 studies that claimed the drug was harmful, but both had 1:02:30.920 --> 1:02:34.600 been retracted by a medical journal. In effect, Chasmeric had 1:02:34.600 --> 1:02:38.840 banned MiFi pristone nationwide. The United States Justice Department and 1:02:38.920 --> 1:02:42.640 dan CO Laboratories mif for pristone's manufacturer appealed, and the 1:02:42.680 --> 1:02:47.520 case went to the Fifth Circuit. Judicial chaos surrounding the 1:02:47.520 --> 1:02:52.120 status of Mytha pristone reigned within hours, as ABC seven 1:02:52.400 --> 1:02:54.240 in Los Angeles reported. 1:02:54.000 --> 1:02:57.440 In a judicial bombshell involving abortion that could have an 1:02:57.480 --> 1:03:01.360 impact in all fifty states, a Texas federal judge revoking 1:03:01.480 --> 1:03:04.680 FDA approval of an abortion pill that's been used for 1:03:04.720 --> 1:03:07.760 more than twenty years, but another federal judge in Washington 1:03:07.800 --> 1:03:11.600 State then issuing a contradictory ruling, setting up another major 1:03:11.640 --> 1:03:12.400 battle over. 1:03:12.240 --> 1:03:13.440 A woman's right to choose. 1:03:13.760 --> 1:03:16.400 I went aso's reporter Amy Powell, joining us live in 1:03:16.480 --> 1:03:18.920 studio with more tonight, Amy and Michelle. 1:03:18.920 --> 1:03:20.480 This is causing a lot of concern. 1:03:20.800 --> 1:03:23.439 The reversal of Roe versus Weighed by the Supreme Court 1:03:23.560 --> 1:03:26.200 was supposed to mean that abortion laws would be left 1:03:26.280 --> 1:03:29.840 up to individual states, but today a Texas federal judge 1:03:29.880 --> 1:03:32.880 issued a ruling that could end access to an abortion 1:03:32.960 --> 1:03:36.960 pill in all fifty states. Shortly after the Texas judge 1:03:37.000 --> 1:03:40.440 issued his decision, a judge in Washington State issued a 1:03:40.520 --> 1:03:43.640 ruling ordering the FDA to make no changes to the 1:03:43.680 --> 1:03:47.880 availability of MiFi pristone. Those conflicting orders mean this case 1:03:48.040 --> 1:03:51.040 is likely to end up in the Supreme Court. 1:03:51.840 --> 1:03:54.640 The mifipristone case went to the Fifth Circuit, where Judge 1:03:54.640 --> 1:03:58.840 Ho would write an opinion critics characterized as disturbing, baffling, 1:03:59.160 --> 1:04:01.959 and bizarre. We'll talk about what happened in the Miffi 1:04:01.960 --> 1:04:05.280 pristone case and how Judge Hoe, an immigrant himself, has 1:04:05.280 --> 1:04:08.000 suggested that the children of migrants might not be eligible 1:04:08.000 --> 1:04:10.840 for birthright citizenship because of the United States is, in 1:04:10.880 --> 1:04:14.320 his words, being invaded. But first we'll hear some, hopefully 1:04:14.320 --> 1:04:26.080 not two bizarre messages from our sponsors. 1:04:27.080 --> 1:04:30.120 When the Fifth Circuit heard the appeal of Kasmeric's ruling, 1:04:30.440 --> 1:04:33.760 Hoe didn't recuse himself from the case, even though his wife, Allison, 1:04:33.840 --> 1:04:37.800 a lawyer, has repeatedly appeared at events sponsored by the 1:04:37.840 --> 1:04:41.800 Alliance Defending Freedom, one of the litigants, and even received 1:04:41.840 --> 1:04:46.200 speaking fees from the organization. Hoe brushed off this obvious. 1:04:45.840 --> 1:04:49.760 Conflict of interest on August sixteenth, twenty twenty three. That 1:04:49.880 --> 1:04:53.520 court didn't completely uphold Chismeric's ruling, but it did impose 1:04:53.600 --> 1:04:57.240 numerous restrictions on the abortion pill called MiFi pristone, claiming 1:04:57.240 --> 1:05:00.200 that the FDA didn't fully consider its potential health risks. 1:05:01.080 --> 1:05:03.680 If the Supreme Court had upheld the Fifth Circuit's opinion, 1:05:04.120 --> 1:05:06.440 women would not have been allowed to receive a prescription 1:05:06.480 --> 1:05:09.640 through the mail after online medical appointments. They would have 1:05:09.680 --> 1:05:13.000 been able to receive the prescription only after a direct 1:05:13.120 --> 1:05:15.760 visit with the doctor and after three in person follow 1:05:15.840 --> 1:05:18.840 up appointments. The window in which women would have been 1:05:18.880 --> 1:05:20.760 allowed to take mif for pristown would have been cut 1:05:20.800 --> 1:05:24.040 from seventy days of pregnancy to about forty nine. 1:05:25.000 --> 1:05:28.680 Hoe wanted to go much further than the Fifth Circuit's majority. 1:05:28.800 --> 1:05:31.680 He wanted to rescind the FDA's approval a myth for 1:05:31.760 --> 1:05:34.240 press though, which would have removed the drug from the 1:05:34.240 --> 1:05:38.360 market entirely. When judges agree with a majority on a panel, 1:05:38.400 --> 1:05:41.080 they can write a concurring opinion that gives them a 1:05:41.160 --> 1:05:44.439 chance to grandstand about a case. This is what Hoe 1:05:44.480 --> 1:05:47.520 did in his concurrence when he bitterly complained that some 1:05:47.720 --> 1:05:50.960 believed that quote no one should ever question the FDA. 1:05:51.960 --> 1:05:54.680 Hoe then asked the public to pity the obstetricians, he 1:05:54.720 --> 1:05:58.640 claimed suffer because of women's abortion rights. Pe drew on 1:05:58.760 --> 1:06:01.160 environmental case law, which acknowledges that a member of the 1:06:01.160 --> 1:06:04.760 public might believe that they've suffered a loss when, for instance, 1:06:04.880 --> 1:06:09.080 a park is destroyed because it is the location of 1:06:09.400 --> 1:06:12.240 a new mining operation, and then they can sue on 1:06:12.320 --> 1:06:15.560 that basis. Hoe argued that doctors could suffer the same 1:06:15.600 --> 1:06:19.520 sort of damages when a pregnancy is medically ended. In 1:06:19.560 --> 1:06:22.320 his concurrence on MIFH Pristowe, Hoe wrote the following. 1:06:22.880 --> 1:06:26.440 Unborn babies are a source of profound joy for those 1:06:26.480 --> 1:06:32.080 who view them. Expectant parents eagerly share ultrasound photos with 1:06:32.240 --> 1:06:36.320 loved ones, friends and family cheer at the sight of 1:06:36.400 --> 1:06:40.880 an unborn child, and doctors delight in working with their 1:06:41.000 --> 1:06:46.480 unborn patients and experience an esthetic injury when they are aborted. 1:06:47.640 --> 1:06:50.480 Leo Yu is an assistant professor of law at the 1:06:50.560 --> 1:06:55.160 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth. It specializes in civil rights law. 1:06:55.800 --> 1:06:59.640 You actually receive law degrees in two countries. Is Native 1:06:59.720 --> 1:07:03.400 China and in the United States at Southern Messogist University 1:07:03.400 --> 1:07:06.560 in Dallas. While he lived in Texas, he lived under 1:07:06.560 --> 1:07:09.840 the jurisdiction of the Fifth Circuit and saw close hand 1:07:09.880 --> 1:07:13.080 the legal chaos. The Fifth Circuit is created in the 1:07:13.080 --> 1:07:17.040 states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi. In twenty twenty one, he 1:07:17.120 --> 1:07:21.720 created a podcast, Plead the Fifth Professor. You believes that 1:07:21.760 --> 1:07:25.280 when Hoe writes extreme opinions, such as in the Mesaprostone case, 1:07:25.640 --> 1:07:28.360 he's desperately trying to get one man's attention. 1:07:29.000 --> 1:07:32.600 He is auditioning all the time to the Supreme Court, 1:07:32.680 --> 1:07:36.040 and he went so far to create something that is 1:07:36.200 --> 1:07:39.840 quite honestly just not even sensible. It's like, you know, 1:07:40.120 --> 1:07:45.040 Peopaul wants to see cute little, you know, ultrasounds of babies, 1:07:45.080 --> 1:07:47.760 and that makes important, you know, of them having the 1:07:47.880 --> 1:07:51.160 standing to challenge abortion pills, that they wouldn't be able 1:07:51.200 --> 1:07:55.160 to see those cute little alta sounds anymore. And it 1:07:55.360 --> 1:07:59.360 just that part of rationale is quite just insane. 1:07:59.640 --> 1:08:00.800 I think that part. 1:08:00.960 --> 1:08:03.560 I don't know if that is something that he truly believed, 1:08:03.640 --> 1:08:06.640 And I would say that it's hard to imagine for 1:08:06.720 --> 1:08:11.240 anybody who truly believed that sort of analysis. So I 1:08:11.280 --> 1:08:14.840 put that part of analysis as another way from justice 1:08:14.840 --> 1:08:18.559 hold trying to audition for the Supreme Court like, Hey, 1:08:19.200 --> 1:08:21.519 you think you found a concern to the judge somewhere 1:08:21.520 --> 1:08:22.559 in DC, Look at me. 1:08:22.680 --> 1:08:25.120 I'm even more. And that's what it is. 1:08:25.960 --> 1:08:28.240 No one would accuse the United States Supreme Court under 1:08:28.320 --> 1:08:32.519 John Roberts of being moderate, but repeatedly Roberts and the 1:08:32.560 --> 1:08:34.920 other justices have taken the Fifth Circuit to task for 1:08:35.000 --> 1:08:38.800 going to extremes in its ruling. As Texas Tribune writer 1:08:39.000 --> 1:08:42.960 Eleanor Klibanoff put it, quote, if the Fifth US Circuit 1:08:43.080 --> 1:08:45.559 Court of Appeals was a boxer, you'd bet on the 1:08:45.600 --> 1:08:46.000 other guy. 1:08:46.920 --> 1:08:50.000 Writing a Supreme Court's reaction of Fifth Circuit rulings in 1:08:50.280 --> 1:08:54.160 July twenty twenty four, Clibanoff noted that only three of 1:08:54.160 --> 1:08:58.480 the tribunal's decisions had been upheld, while eight had been overturned, 1:08:58.960 --> 1:09:02.120 a one lost record that ranked amongst the worst among 1:09:02.240 --> 1:09:05.800 circuit courts in the country. In a meth of pristone case, 1:09:06.320 --> 1:09:10.200 just as Brett Kavanaugh, hardly a Bolshevik, expressed dismay that 1:09:10.240 --> 1:09:13.760 the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine had been granted standing. 1:09:13.960 --> 1:09:18.240 Kavanaugh wrote this quote for a plaintiff to get in 1:09:18.240 --> 1:09:21.559 the federal courthouse door and obtain a judicial determination of 1:09:21.560 --> 1:09:24.240 what the governing law is. The plaintiff cannot be a 1:09:24.280 --> 1:09:27.519 mere bystander, but instead must have a personal stake in 1:09:27.560 --> 1:09:31.200 the dispute end quote. If the standard set by Judge 1:09:31.200 --> 1:09:35.559 hon his peers in New Orleans remained in place, Kavanaugh warned, quote, 1:09:35.680 --> 1:09:38.960 virtually every citizen would have standing to challenge virtually every 1:09:39.000 --> 1:09:42.960 government action that they do not like. Governing, he suggested, 1:09:43.200 --> 1:09:44.240 would become impossible. 1:09:44.960 --> 1:09:46.920 It wasn't just on the issue of legal standing that 1:09:46.960 --> 1:09:50.320 the Supreme Court found the Fifth Circuit Court's judgment lacking. 1:09:50.920 --> 1:09:53.400 In the case of Rahemi versus the United States, the 1:09:53.400 --> 1:09:57.960 Fifth Circuit overturned a federal law that prohibited domestic abusers 1:09:57.960 --> 1:10:02.240 from buying firearms. The Highest Court on June twenty first, 1:10:02.320 --> 1:10:05.519 twenty twenty four, overturned that decision by an eight to 1:10:05.560 --> 1:10:09.920 one margin. Chief Justice John Roberts, who generally supports a 1:10:10.040 --> 1:10:13.080 very broad view of gun right, said that history quote 1:10:13.400 --> 1:10:18.040 confirms what common sense suggests. When an individual poses a 1:10:18.040 --> 1:10:22.200 clear threat of physical violence to another, the threatening individual 1:10:22.439 --> 1:10:26.679 may be disarmed. Roberts also suggested that the Fifth Circuit 1:10:27.080 --> 1:10:31.240 misunderstood the Supreme Court's view of the Second Amendment. Fusser, 1:10:31.360 --> 1:10:34.639 you told us that as conservative as Supreme Court majority 1:10:34.720 --> 1:10:37.800 might be, outside of Clarence Thomas, they have found the 1:10:37.800 --> 1:10:42.520 Fifth Circuit's rulings to be an embarrassment conservative judicial philosophy. 1:10:43.080 --> 1:10:44.840 On that again, I think that was the a to 1:10:45.000 --> 1:10:47.720 one opinion, and Clarence Thomas was the only person who 1:10:47.760 --> 1:10:50.439 would agree was the Fifth Circus. So in general, I 1:10:50.520 --> 1:10:55.360 think the Supreme Court is definitely conservative. But the Supreme 1:10:55.439 --> 1:11:00.479 Court appreciate a certain type of conservativeness that they can shounon, 1:11:00.760 --> 1:11:03.880 and it is something that it can lays with some 1:11:03.960 --> 1:11:10.640 academic legitimacy and knowledges, some sort of attention seeking paragraphed 1:11:10.840 --> 1:11:14.160 that would make people hold feel some sort of feeling. 1:11:15.280 --> 1:11:17.200 On the last day of its twenty twenty four session, 1:11:17.600 --> 1:11:19.840 the Supreme Court sent back to the Fifth Circuit a 1:11:19.920 --> 1:11:22.759 case involving a twenty twenty one Texas law that limited 1:11:22.760 --> 1:11:25.639 the ability of social media companies to suspend user accounts 1:11:25.680 --> 1:11:29.559 for extremist or violence inciting content. The law was inspired 1:11:29.560 --> 1:11:32.519 by the decision of what was then called Twitter and 1:11:32.560 --> 1:11:36.160 now x, as well as other social media companies to 1:11:36.360 --> 1:11:39.680 deplatform Donald Trump after the president encouraged his supporters to 1:11:39.800 --> 1:11:43.320 ransack the Capital and stop the counting of electoral college boats. 1:11:43.400 --> 1:11:46.879 On January sixth, twenty twenty one, the Fifth Circuit previously 1:11:46.960 --> 1:11:50.120 upheld the law, claiming that it rejected quote the idea 1:11:50.200 --> 1:11:52.960 that corporations have a free, willing, First Amendment right to 1:11:53.040 --> 1:11:54.120 censor what people say. 1:11:54.960 --> 1:11:57.760 Ho and his allies on the Fifth Circuit, however, our 1:11:57.840 --> 1:12:02.160 find was censoring free expression by members of the LGBTQ community. 1:12:02.720 --> 1:12:06.200 In March twenty twenty three, Walter Wendler, the president of 1:12:06.280 --> 1:12:10.559 West Texas A and M University, a public institution, cancel 1:12:10.600 --> 1:12:14.479 at drag shows schedule at Legacy Hall, a campus building. 1:12:15.479 --> 1:12:18.599 Organizers plan to use proceeds from the performance to raise 1:12:18.640 --> 1:12:22.040 money for the Trevor Project, a nonprofit group that seeks 1:12:22.080 --> 1:12:26.240 to prevent suicides in the LGBTQ plus community. In a 1:12:26.280 --> 1:12:30.679 statement canceling the show, Wendler explicitly said that his private 1:12:30.760 --> 1:12:33.480 religious beliefs guided his decision. 1:12:34.320 --> 1:12:37.760 West Texas A and M University will not host a 1:12:37.840 --> 1:12:41.760 drag show on campus. I believe every human being is 1:12:41.840 --> 1:12:45.559 created in the image of God, and therefore a person 1:12:45.640 --> 1:12:50.120 of dignity. Does a drag show reserve a single thread 1:12:50.200 --> 1:12:55.560 of human dignity? I think not. As a performance exaggerating 1:12:55.720 --> 1:13:03.719 aspects of womanhood, sexuality, femininity, gender. Drag shows stereotype women 1:13:04.280 --> 1:13:09.439 in cartoon like extremes for the amusement of others, and 1:13:09.640 --> 1:13:17.680 discriminate against womanhood. Drag shows are derisive, divisive, and demoralizing misogyny. 1:13:18.240 --> 1:13:23.080 No matter what the stated intent, such conduct runs counter 1:13:23.520 --> 1:13:27.200 to the purpose of West Texas A and M. A 1:13:27.240 --> 1:13:30.840 person or group should not attempt to elevate itself or 1:13:30.880 --> 1:13:35.800 a cause by mocking another person or group. As a 1:13:35.920 --> 1:13:41.479 university president, I would not support blackface performances on our campus, 1:13:42.200 --> 1:13:45.599 even if told the performance is a form of free 1:13:45.600 --> 1:13:49.759 speech or intended as humor, it is wrong. 1:13:50.920 --> 1:13:55.599 Spectrum WT, a pro LGBTQ student organization, file a suit 1:13:55.680 --> 1:13:59.120 challenging the band and requested an injunction blocking Wendler's action. 1:14:00.160 --> 1:14:03.400 Judge Kasmirick, the same jurist who initially blocked access to 1:14:03.439 --> 1:14:06.720 MiFi pristone, sided with West Texas A and M and 1:14:06.800 --> 1:14:09.760 issued a preliminary ruling preventing the drag show from taking 1:14:09.800 --> 1:14:13.919 place pending a trial. He said the performance supposed sexual 1:14:13.960 --> 1:14:18.400 content lacked free speech protections quote the First Amendment does 1:14:18.439 --> 1:14:21.640 not prevent school officials from restricting vulgar and lewd conduct 1:14:21.880 --> 1:14:26.000 that would undermine the school's basic educational mission, particularly in 1:14:26.040 --> 1:14:28.800 settings where children are physically present, Cosmeric wrote in his 1:14:28.840 --> 1:14:30.920 September twenty two to twenty twenty three opinion. 1:14:31.640 --> 1:14:35.639 Spectrum w T appealed. The case went to the Fifth Circuit, 1:14:35.640 --> 1:14:39.080 where three judge panel heard arguments on whether the fundraiser 1:14:39.120 --> 1:14:42.960 could proceed. On August eighteenth, twenty twenty five, by two 1:14:42.960 --> 1:14:48.720 to one vote, the panel reversed Kasmeric's ruling. Judge Leslie Southwick, 1:14:48.800 --> 1:14:52.439 a George W. Bush appointee, and a Bill Clinton appointed 1:14:52.560 --> 1:14:56.160 US Circuit Judge James Dennis ruled that West Texas A 1:14:56.200 --> 1:14:59.880 and M had violated the gay student organization's expressive right. 1:15:00.840 --> 1:15:04.800 Predictably, Hoe dissented. He simply echoed the arguments used by 1:15:04.840 --> 1:15:09.520 the university president, insisting that banning drag shows somehow advanced inclusivity. 1:15:10.240 --> 1:15:14.559 University officials have determined that drag shows are sexists for 1:15:14.680 --> 1:15:19.519 the same reason that blackface performances are racist, and Supreme 1:15:19.560 --> 1:15:24.240 Court precedent demands that we respect university officials when it 1:15:24.280 --> 1:15:29.920 comes to regulating student activities to ensure an inclusive educational 1:15:30.040 --> 1:15:32.000 environment for all. 1:15:32.160 --> 1:15:36.240 Spectrum wt's victory proved temporary. The panel's decision would not 1:15:36.320 --> 1:15:38.360 go into effect until the case was heard by the 1:15:38.520 --> 1:15:42.360 entire Fifth Circuit Court. Meanwhile, a full trial unfolded in 1:15:42.439 --> 1:15:46.160 Kasmirics Court in January. Not surprisingly, he ruled in favor 1:15:46.200 --> 1:15:48.400 of West Texas A and M. He said that the 1:15:48.400 --> 1:15:50.639 student group had not proven that the show was meant 1:15:50.680 --> 1:15:52.720 to convey a message that might be protected by the 1:15:52.720 --> 1:15:55.720 First Amendment, and that by their nature, drag shows have 1:15:55.800 --> 1:15:59.240 sexualized content and the university had the right to regulate 1:15:59.520 --> 1:16:03.040 on campus grounds. The hearing before the full Fifth Circuit 1:16:03.120 --> 1:16:06.800 was canceled, although Spectrum's legal team at the Foundation for 1:16:06.840 --> 1:16:11.320 Individual Rights and Expression plans a different appeal. On twenty fifth, 1:16:11.640 --> 1:16:13.800 a panel of the Fifth Circuit also upheld a new 1:16:13.840 --> 1:16:17.679 state ban on certain types of drag performances. Judge Kurt Engelhardt, 1:16:17.720 --> 1:16:20.759 appointed to the Fifth Circuit by President Donald Trump, expressed 1:16:20.840 --> 1:16:23.879 doubt that such shows were protected by the Constitution, especially 1:16:23.920 --> 1:16:26.280 said quote in the presence of miners. 1:16:27.200 --> 1:16:30.200 While the Fifth Circuit chipped away at free speech rights 1:16:30.280 --> 1:16:33.960 or the LGBTQ plus community, the advanced the rights of 1:16:34.040 --> 1:16:38.080 states to impose speech on public school teachers. The full 1:16:38.120 --> 1:16:41.320 court by a twelve to sixth margin, lifted a district 1:16:41.360 --> 1:16:44.640 court's hold on a Louisiana state law requiring teachers to 1:16:44.680 --> 1:16:48.320 display post or size copies of the Ten Commandments in 1:16:48.360 --> 1:16:52.320 public school classrooms in spite of the First Amendments prohibition 1:16:52.600 --> 1:16:57.479 establishing a state religion or requiring religious practice in the 1:16:57.479 --> 1:17:00.200 efforts of the founders of the American Republic, liked time Ms. 1:17:00.320 --> 1:17:03.599 Jefferson direct a wall of separation between church and state. 1:17:04.280 --> 1:17:08.519 James Host celebrated the decision. The Louisiana law was the 1:17:08.600 --> 1:17:13.200 only constitutional Host said it quote affirms our nation's highest 1:17:13.240 --> 1:17:17.639 and most noble traditions. That claim left Professor u baffled. 1:17:18.240 --> 1:17:21.960 The question is is he a historian when he said 1:17:22.040 --> 1:17:25.160 that the founding members of this country would like that? 1:17:25.479 --> 1:17:27.800 What historical record is he relying on? 1:17:28.479 --> 1:17:32.040 But isn't that even anti common knowledge that our founders 1:17:32.120 --> 1:17:37.120 would really resent that To push our newly establed republic 1:17:37.439 --> 1:17:40.880 to a situation where we push our citizens to bleeding 1:17:40.920 --> 1:17:44.320 certain things religiously, that is exactly the reason why they 1:17:44.400 --> 1:17:45.360 left Europe. 1:17:46.360 --> 1:17:48.760 The Fifth Circuit has presented a threat not only to 1:17:49.160 --> 1:17:52.640 the separation of church and state, free speech, and LGBTQ 1:17:52.720 --> 1:17:55.679 plus rights, but it's also placed the rights of workers 1:17:55.680 --> 1:17:59.519 in its crosshairs. On Angust nineteenth, the United States Fifth 1:17:59.560 --> 1:18:02.880 Circuit of Appeals upheld an injunction requested by attorneys for 1:18:03.000 --> 1:18:06.720 Elon Musk's SpaceX Corporation, ruling that the structure of the 1:18:06.800 --> 1:18:11.160 National Labor Relations Board is unconstitutional and prohibiting it from 1:18:11.200 --> 1:18:15.200 acting against that company and two other corporations the NLRB 1:18:15.400 --> 1:18:19.680 charged with labor law violations. As has often happened, the 1:18:19.720 --> 1:18:23.120 Fifth Circuit court ruling conflicts with that of another circuit court, 1:18:23.280 --> 1:18:26.799 the Ninth Circuit, which upheld the power granted by the NLRB. 1:18:27.439 --> 1:18:29.800 This split almost certainly guarantees the case will end up 1:18:29.800 --> 1:18:31.640 in front of a Supreme Court that has been no 1:18:31.760 --> 1:18:33.080 friend of American workers. 1:18:34.160 --> 1:18:38.040 On rare occasions, the Fifth Circuit might still acknowledge as 1:18:38.080 --> 1:18:40.840 society is tilted against the poor and people of color. 1:18:42.040 --> 1:18:45.160 A panel made up of Fifth Circuit judges ruled that 1:18:45.320 --> 1:18:49.240 Lebine Conan could proceed with our lawsuit against the United 1:18:49.240 --> 1:18:53.840 States Post Office, a landlord who owns two properties in Uless, 1:18:53.880 --> 1:18:57.599 a suburb between Dallas and for Worth. Conan claimed that, 1:18:57.680 --> 1:19:02.280 beginning in twenty twenty two, law postal employees abruptly stopped 1:19:02.280 --> 1:19:05.320 delivering mail, first to her and then to her tenants, 1:19:05.640 --> 1:19:08.040 because she said they didn't like the idea that a 1:19:08.080 --> 1:19:09.840 black person owned the properties. 1:19:10.400 --> 1:19:13.680 The Post Office is mostly shielded from lawsuits by a 1:19:13.760 --> 1:19:18.559 legal doctrine called sovereign immunity, under which, as legal analyst 1:19:18.640 --> 1:19:21.679 Ellie ms Dall explains, quote, the government cannot be held 1:19:21.680 --> 1:19:24.720 liable for monetary damages arising out of actions taken by 1:19:24.720 --> 1:19:27.719 the government. What was unique about the United States Postal 1:19:27.760 --> 1:19:31.240 Service Bucanan case, however, was that in this circumstance, the 1:19:31.280 --> 1:19:35.160 government was causing intentional damage to a private citizen. This time, 1:19:35.200 --> 1:19:38.040 the Fifth Circuit ruled in favor of a marginalized citizen 1:19:38.160 --> 1:19:41.400 and ruled the suit could go forward. This rare progressive 1:19:41.479 --> 1:19:44.960 ruling was for not. However, the Supreme Court overturned the 1:19:45.000 --> 1:19:48.840 Fifth Circuit once again. Clarence Thomas wrote the opinion for 1:19:48.880 --> 1:19:52.320 the five four majority, essentially ruling, as miss Stalls summarized 1:19:52.360 --> 1:19:56.280 the case, quote that the post officers immune from liability 1:19:56.680 --> 1:20:00.120 even when its workers intentionally refused to do their jobs. 1:20:00.720 --> 1:20:05.120 Misstall suggested that this decision carries ominous implications for the 1:20:05.200 --> 1:20:09.240 upcoming election should the US Postal Service, for instance, refuse 1:20:09.280 --> 1:20:13.000 to deliver mail in ballots in spite of james Hosts 1:20:13.000 --> 1:20:16.120 status as an immigrant. His most alarming opinion might be 1:20:16.160 --> 1:20:20.720 regarding birthright citizenship. Ratified in eighteen sixty eight, just three 1:20:20.800 --> 1:20:23.360 years after the end of the Civil War, fourteenth Amendment 1:20:23.400 --> 1:20:25.920 to the United States Constitution declares in its opening sentence 1:20:26.000 --> 1:20:29.759 that quote, all persons born or naturalized in the United States, 1:20:29.960 --> 1:20:32.960 and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the 1:20:33.040 --> 1:20:36.120 United States and of the state wherein they reside. For 1:20:36.120 --> 1:20:38.679 one hundred and twenty eight years, Supreme Court has rejected 1:20:38.800 --> 1:20:42.400 claims that citizenship can be denied to persons born or 1:20:42.479 --> 1:20:46.280 naturalized here based on their race or the immigration status 1:20:46.280 --> 1:20:49.559 of their parents. In the eighteen ninety eight United States 1:20:49.680 --> 1:20:53.360 versus Huang Kim Ar case, the Supreme Court upheld the 1:20:53.400 --> 1:20:55.920 citizenship of a man born in the United States to 1:20:56.000 --> 1:21:00.479 Chinese parents. The government tried to block Arc from returning 1:21:00.520 --> 1:21:03.800 to the United States after he visited China, based on 1:21:03.880 --> 1:21:07.600 the eighteen a two Chinese Exclusion Act, which barred the 1:21:07.720 --> 1:21:11.519 Chinese from immigrating here. The Court ruled sixth to two 1:21:11.600 --> 1:21:15.080 that ARC's birth in the United States established his American 1:21:15.160 --> 1:21:19.840 citizenship and his right to reside here. James Hoe has 1:21:19.880 --> 1:21:23.360 not always attacked the concept of birthright citizenship, and in fact, 1:21:23.439 --> 1:21:24.400 he used to defend it. 1:21:24.840 --> 1:21:25.400 Quote. 1:21:25.640 --> 1:21:28.640 Birthright citizenship is a constitutional right no less for the 1:21:28.720 --> 1:21:32.240 children of undocumented persons than for the descendants of passengers 1:21:32.400 --> 1:21:34.680 of the Mayflower, Hoe said in a two thousand and 1:21:34.680 --> 1:21:37.080 seven opinion piece for the Des Moines Registered. 1:21:38.120 --> 1:21:41.799 However, as the political wins shifted strongly against immigrants, particularly 1:21:41.840 --> 1:21:44.960 in the Trump era, Hoe is also tilted in a 1:21:45.040 --> 1:21:49.439 dramatically different direction. In a twenty twenty four interview, Hoe 1:21:49.479 --> 1:21:51.800 claimed that the United States was being invaded by the 1:21:51.840 --> 1:21:55.640 foreign born, and that denying citizenship to the children of 1:21:55.680 --> 1:21:59.640 the undocumented was necessary to defend national sovereignty. 1:22:00.479 --> 1:22:06.120 Hoe said, birthright citizenship obviously doesn't apply in case of 1:22:06.240 --> 1:22:10.920 war or invasion. No one, to my knowledge has ever 1:22:11.080 --> 1:22:15.360 argued that the children of invading aliens are entitled to 1:22:15.479 --> 1:22:20.559 birthright citizenship, and I can't imagine what the legal argument 1:22:20.640 --> 1:22:25.120 for that would be. It's like the debate over unlawful combatants. 1:22:25.520 --> 1:22:30.599 After nine to eleven, everyone agrees that birthright citizenship doesn't 1:22:30.680 --> 1:22:35.000 apply to the children of lawful combatants, and it's hard 1:22:35.080 --> 1:22:39.880 to see anyone arguing that unlawful combatants should be treated 1:22:39.920 --> 1:22:42.800 more favorably than lawful combatants. 1:22:43.760 --> 1:22:46.280 The question of birthright citizenship might now be out of 1:22:46.320 --> 1:22:48.519 the hands of Hoe and the rest of the Fifth Circuit. 1:22:49.120 --> 1:22:51.640 On December fifth, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a 1:22:51.640 --> 1:22:54.840 case on the constitutionality of Donald Trump's executive order that 1:22:54.880 --> 1:22:57.280 would deny citizenship to those born in the United States 1:22:57.560 --> 1:23:00.320 if their parents were in the country temporarily or lack 1:23:00.439 --> 1:23:04.000 legal status. Doctor you thinks that the Supreme Court is 1:23:04.080 --> 1:23:07.240 likely to accommodate those restrictions, even as they reject James 1:23:07.320 --> 1:23:08.960 Hoe's more extreme theories. 1:23:09.600 --> 1:23:13.040 I think that Supreme Court would roll back some portion 1:23:13.200 --> 1:23:17.760 of the Fourteenth Amendment protection over people who are born 1:23:17.800 --> 1:23:18.599 in this country. 1:23:18.920 --> 1:23:20.280 But I don't think they are. 1:23:20.200 --> 1:23:23.720 Going to what justice Hoe is going after, that is 1:23:23.800 --> 1:23:25.000 the invasion theory. 1:23:25.680 --> 1:23:29.080 That doesn't mean that James Hoe may not one day 1:23:29.200 --> 1:23:33.360 bring his extreme views on immigration to the nation's highest court. 1:23:33.960 --> 1:23:36.160 The two most far right judges on the United States 1:23:36.200 --> 1:23:39.960 Supreme Court are James Hoe's mentor, Clarence Thomas, who turns 1:23:39.960 --> 1:23:43.680 seventy eight on June twenty third, and Samuel Alito, who 1:23:43.760 --> 1:23:48.560 celebrates his seventy sixth birthday on April first. Court watchers 1:23:49.080 --> 1:23:53.360 are speculating that Alita might step down as early as October. 1:23:54.160 --> 1:23:57.880 His wife, Martha Anne, has expressed eager anticipation that the 1:23:57.920 --> 1:24:00.400 couple might soon be able to openly exp rest their 1:24:00.400 --> 1:24:03.880 political views. As though the Alito's opinions have ever been 1:24:03.880 --> 1:24:07.639 a mystery, It's still an uphill battle, but the odds 1:24:07.640 --> 1:24:11.200 of Democrats retaking the Senate after the off here elections 1:24:11.720 --> 1:24:16.360 have improved significantly in recent weeks. Alita may want to retire, 1:24:16.520 --> 1:24:19.080 while a Republican controlled Senate would still be able a 1:24:19.160 --> 1:24:21.760 rubber stamp Trump's choice for his successor. 1:24:22.400 --> 1:24:25.439 Alito also has a book coming out on October sixth, 1:24:25.600 --> 1:24:27.960 the day after the Supreme Court starts its fall term. 1:24:28.640 --> 1:24:30.800 Continuing to serve on the Court would interfere with any 1:24:30.840 --> 1:24:34.360 book promotion tour. Such an opening might lead to James 1:24:34.360 --> 1:24:37.280 Hoe getting a promotion, but Professor Hugh said that the 1:24:37.280 --> 1:24:40.800 Fifth Court judge shouldn't pack his bags just yet. Trump 1:24:40.880 --> 1:24:43.320 has largely outsourced the job of picking new federal judges 1:24:43.400 --> 1:24:46.200 or promoting them to the far right Federal Society, and 1:24:46.320 --> 1:24:49.120 you think that Home might lack the polish that a 1:24:49.160 --> 1:24:50.960 powerful lobbying group would see. 1:24:51.320 --> 1:24:53.800 I think, you know, it's not a secret that he's 1:24:53.840 --> 1:24:56.120 trying to get there, but I honestly think it's not 1:24:56.200 --> 1:24:58.720 going to be him. He does inter fit into the 1:24:59.240 --> 1:25:02.720 full file of a person who would get there. I 1:25:02.760 --> 1:25:06.880 think the Festoc, you know, the Federally Society is basically 1:25:06.960 --> 1:25:08.480 the handler of that situation. 1:25:08.640 --> 1:25:09.680 They would be able to. 1:25:10.120 --> 1:25:12.960 You know, screen in and you know, make short list 1:25:13.680 --> 1:25:16.240 to the White House. And so what kind of people 1:25:16.240 --> 1:25:19.439 they're looking for. I think that they're definitely looking for 1:25:19.479 --> 1:25:22.679 a conservative. If a little is going away right, Uh, 1:25:22.800 --> 1:25:26.799 They're looking for a conservative. But I don't think Justice 1:25:26.840 --> 1:25:31.040 Whole is in their favor because I think they are 1:25:31.040 --> 1:25:35.680 trying to find another person who is more sophisticated than 1:25:35.920 --> 1:25:39.880 Justice Whole, if I may say, may say that they 1:25:39.920 --> 1:25:43.840 wanted to find a person who is definitely a conservative 1:25:44.200 --> 1:25:48.840 but being able to rewrap the message with with academic 1:25:49.000 --> 1:25:53.320 legitimacy and to forge a need for majority at the 1:25:53.400 --> 1:25:56.479 Court to push through their agenda. 1:25:56.600 --> 1:26:00.080 Recently, Trump said he was considering Ted Cruz of Texas 1:26:00.120 --> 1:26:03.080 for the next Supreme Court vacancy. If so, James Hoe 1:26:03.160 --> 1:26:05.759 may be enjoying his lifetime post at the Fifth Circuit 1:26:05.800 --> 1:26:10.839 for the foreseeable future. Hoe celebrated his fifty third birthday 1:26:10.880 --> 1:26:14.800 on February twenty seventh. That means his legal philosophy will 1:26:14.840 --> 1:26:18.040 shape gay and trans writes the limits of free speech, 1:26:18.320 --> 1:26:21.400 who can buy firearms and where, and how how much 1:26:21.439 --> 1:26:24.320 autonomy women have over their bodies, and what access they 1:26:24.320 --> 1:26:27.240 will enjoy the healthcare and where the boundaries will be 1:26:27.320 --> 1:26:31.679 drawn between church and state for years to come. Hoe 1:26:31.720 --> 1:26:33.880 may not make it to the Supreme Court, but he 1:26:33.880 --> 1:26:36.559 could still be the loudest voice on the scariest court 1:26:36.560 --> 1:26:39.920 in America and shape the future of forty million Americans 1:26:39.920 --> 1:26:43.719 in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi for decades to come. 1:26:44.920 --> 1:26:47.639 We'd like to thank our friend Steve Mason for providing 1:26:47.680 --> 1:26:50.439 some of the voices today. This is Stephen Manchelly for 1:26:50.479 --> 1:26:51.760 it could happen here, and this. 1:26:51.760 --> 1:26:54.360 Is Michael Phillips. Until next time, Thanks for listening. 1:27:10.439 --> 1:27:12.240 Hello everyone, welcome to That could Happen Here. 1:27:12.439 --> 1:27:13.479 My name is Dana L. 1:27:13.560 --> 1:27:16.599 Kurd. I'm a researcher of Arab and Palestinian politics, and 1:27:16.640 --> 1:27:19.280 today I'm joined by Ilia Ayub. 1:27:19.920 --> 1:27:21.200 Would like to introduce yourself. 1:27:21.520 --> 1:27:24.200 Yeah, yeah, hi Danna, thank you for having me. My 1:27:24.280 --> 1:27:27.600 name is Idiah. I'm emotioning it from Lebanon. My background 1:27:27.640 --> 1:27:31.920 is in both history and journalism, and I often write 1:27:31.960 --> 1:27:34.719 about the region and more support Palestinian and I also 1:27:34.760 --> 1:27:37.759 write a lot about this aid in Palestine, and obviously 1:27:37.800 --> 1:27:41.160 in the past few years I've been covering and also 1:27:41.240 --> 1:27:42.920 worrying a lot about what's been happening. 1:27:43.360 --> 1:27:45.880 Yeah, thank you so much for joining us, especially at 1:27:45.880 --> 1:27:48.839 such a difficult time for the listeners. We are recording 1:27:48.960 --> 1:27:53.160 March twenty second, twenty twenty six, and is Uel's attack 1:27:53.200 --> 1:27:56.759 on Lebanon is ongoing. So we're really grateful to Elia 1:27:56.920 --> 1:28:00.040 for joining us and talking to us about what this 1:28:00.160 --> 1:28:02.280 means and what we're seeing on the ground. Yeah, So 1:28:02.320 --> 1:28:04.360 maybe I'll start there. Can you lay out for the 1:28:04.400 --> 1:28:07.840 listener what is happening in Lebanon right now? 1:28:08.880 --> 1:28:10.200 So what's been happening in Lebanon? 1:28:10.280 --> 1:28:13.320 Is that really connected to the US Israeli war on 1:28:13.400 --> 1:28:16.720 Iran which started what about twenty two twenty three days 1:28:16.760 --> 1:28:19.960 ago something like that, That was in itself in the 1:28:20.000 --> 1:28:23.280 context of negotiations between Americans and the Ionians in Switzerland 1:28:23.320 --> 1:28:27.320 mediated by Arman, and just moments later, really that same night, 1:28:27.760 --> 1:28:29.800 the bombing of Iran started. 1:28:30.200 --> 1:28:33.360 In Lebanon, or rather the way Lebanon enters. 1:28:33.120 --> 1:28:36.720 This story is a couple of days after the assassination 1:28:36.760 --> 1:28:39.840 of Chraminid atl of Ion has Boler launched the cockets 1:28:39.880 --> 1:28:43.599 towards Israel. And this was used by the Israelis as 1:28:43.720 --> 1:28:46.639 effectively them saying that we will only head on Lebanon. 1:28:47.200 --> 1:28:50.679 And that's often how it's been reported. What is often 1:28:50.720 --> 1:28:53.599 missed even in that context I mean, is that there 1:28:53.720 --> 1:28:56.920 was a so called ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, and 1:28:57.120 --> 1:29:01.600 Hasball obviously for thirteen months before that, but that so 1:29:01.680 --> 1:29:03.839 called seasfire, the reason what I'm saying, so called seasfire 1:29:04.280 --> 1:29:06.479 had already been violated by the Israelis. And this is 1:29:06.479 --> 1:29:09.040 the figures that come from the uniform the unp Is 1:29:09.080 --> 1:29:13.719 keeping forces in Lebanon over fifteen thousand times, whereas they themselves. 1:29:13.760 --> 1:29:15.559 In fact, even the BBC today I saw an article 1:29:15.560 --> 1:29:19.200 today I acknowledged that has Bulah had not violated the ceasefire, 1:29:19.760 --> 1:29:21.920 which you know is just I guess still is. You're 1:29:21.880 --> 1:29:23.519 also where the where the mood is add inters of 1:29:23.880 --> 1:29:27.040 the coverage since then, like in the past three weeks, 1:29:27.560 --> 1:29:31.000 the hell and this term was used by israel officials 1:29:31.040 --> 1:29:34.880 themselves that has been unleashed on Lebanon has been unprecedented, 1:29:34.960 --> 1:29:39.120 and even even by Israeli wars on Lebanon standards, which 1:29:39.160 --> 1:29:42.160 is saying a lot. As of time of recording, at 1:29:42.240 --> 1:29:45.479 least twenty percent of the entirety of Lebanon has already 1:29:45.520 --> 1:29:48.519 been displaced, and for the most part, these are people 1:29:48.520 --> 1:29:51.920 that had already experienced this placement at least once in 1:29:51.920 --> 1:29:56.040 twenty twenty four when this war started, if not older 1:29:56.120 --> 1:29:58.720 patterns of displacements going back to the Civil War and 1:29:58.800 --> 1:30:01.400 the Israeli occupy of South Lebanon in the eighties and 1:30:01.439 --> 1:30:05.720 nineties and so on. And pretty unclear where this is 1:30:05.760 --> 1:30:10.639 headed because just hours before we even started recording, they 1:30:11.000 --> 1:30:14.560 escalated their bombings of bridges connecting South Lebanon to the 1:30:14.600 --> 1:30:16.720 Gust of Lebanon, which is over the Littonia River, which 1:30:16.760 --> 1:30:18.720 is one of the rivers in the south, as part 1:30:18.720 --> 1:30:21.559 of the attempt to cut off the entire region of Lebanon, 1:30:21.720 --> 1:30:24.320 of South Lebanon from the rest of the country. And yeah, 1:30:24.360 --> 1:30:26.120 we can get into oftenly more of the details and 1:30:26.160 --> 1:30:28.400 the impact that this is having on Lebanon itself, of course, 1:30:28.400 --> 1:30:32.080 because this tends to be unfortunately like not covered. 1:30:31.760 --> 1:30:36.240 A much, Yeah, thank you, So to kind of summarize, 1:30:36.720 --> 1:30:40.080 because they decided to launch a war against Iran, and 1:30:40.240 --> 1:30:43.080 obviously there's so much to say about that, we're not 1:30:43.120 --> 1:30:45.839 going to be able to address every aspect of this conflict. 1:30:45.880 --> 1:30:49.640 But because of that, and after particularly the assassination of 1:30:50.080 --> 1:30:54.240 the Ayatola Hasbolo launch rockets, and then the Israelis, who 1:30:54.240 --> 1:30:57.919 had already been breaking the seasefire between them and Hesbola 1:30:58.040 --> 1:31:00.960 that had emerged over the past year, decided to kind 1:31:00.960 --> 1:31:03.320 of ramp up their attacks. And when we say ramp 1:31:03.400 --> 1:31:05.599 up their attacks, you know, you've mentioned like the destruction 1:31:05.640 --> 1:31:09.519 of infrastructure, cutting off the south, basically clearing villages, et cetera. 1:31:09.920 --> 1:31:13.200 The Israeli officials, including Natanya, who have said they want 1:31:13.240 --> 1:31:16.280 to impose what they called the Gaza. 1:31:15.920 --> 1:31:17.040 Model on Lebanon. 1:31:17.320 --> 1:31:22.799 So what can we understand from from this kind of comment? 1:31:23.479 --> 1:31:24.120 Yeah, thank you. 1:31:24.479 --> 1:31:28.559 It's important to note that such comments are not new 1:31:28.600 --> 1:31:31.880 at all, and they have also been uttered in times 1:31:31.880 --> 1:31:34.120 of quote unquote peace. So when there isn't any kind 1:31:34.120 --> 1:31:37.240 of active conflict in my own article for nine seven two, 1:31:37.240 --> 1:31:38.760 which I wrote about it, don't know two weeks ago. 1:31:38.880 --> 1:31:41.400 So I quote in a number of those politicians, and 1:31:41.439 --> 1:31:44.160 I'll just mention a few of them. Here you have Galant, 1:31:44.160 --> 1:31:46.920 who has of course since been and still has in 1:31:47.040 --> 1:31:51.040 against warrant by the International Comment Court. He's hadned to 1:31:51.080 --> 1:31:52.680 send up on back to the Stone Agent. This was 1:31:52.680 --> 1:31:56.600 in November twenty twenty four. The Diaspora Affairs Minister Amishai 1:31:57.080 --> 1:32:00.559 quickly declared in September twenty twenty four that n quote 1:32:00.600 --> 1:32:03.040 does not mean the definition of a state, and he 1:32:03.160 --> 1:32:06.120 described all of the Shia population of Lebanon as quote 1:32:06.160 --> 1:32:10.880 unquote hostile, which is genocide the language by definition. And 1:32:11.400 --> 1:32:14.559 even about what two or three weeks ago, so smart 1:32:14.640 --> 1:32:16.240 Hitch who was one of kind of the main for 1:32:16.400 --> 1:32:20.040 great politicians in Israel today said that very soonly some 1:32:20.080 --> 1:32:23.400 un quoting, very soon Dahi will resemble Harne Newness. Dahi 1:32:23.439 --> 1:32:27.080 being the southern suburb of Bayhood where a lot there's 1:32:27.080 --> 1:32:28.559 a lot of support for has Bola and has always 1:32:28.600 --> 1:32:31.080 been talked about by the Israelis as like one of 1:32:31.120 --> 1:32:35.439 the quote blas songholds. In fact, they pioneered you might 1:32:35.479 --> 1:32:37.960 say that Dahi doctrine in two thousand and six, so 1:32:38.080 --> 1:32:39.720 named after Dahi, and there was a war in two 1:32:39.720 --> 1:32:43.120 thousand and six as well, Pteninsula has Butla, which is 1:32:43.600 --> 1:32:48.760 quite explicitly a policy of bombing civilian infrastructure in order 1:32:48.800 --> 1:32:50.240 to put pressure on the enemy. 1:32:50.240 --> 1:32:52.559 In this crist As Butler, which is basically in. 1:32:52.640 --> 1:32:56.200 Acknowledgment that they viorate international law as state policy. And 1:32:56.360 --> 1:33:00.280 on March eleven, a member of the Pignesset for the 1:33:00.280 --> 1:33:03.439 same party of smot Riach said, and I'm quoting, we 1:33:03.560 --> 1:33:06.880 must conquer territory in southern Lebanon, destroy villages there and 1:33:06.960 --> 1:33:08.759 annex the territory to the state of Israel. 1:33:08.880 --> 1:33:10.479 End quote. There's another one. 1:33:10.520 --> 1:33:12.880 Gadi Eisencote, who was the former chief of staff of 1:33:12.920 --> 1:33:16.559 the Israelia Media Idea, said around the same time, I 1:33:16.560 --> 1:33:17.760 think it was a couple of weeks ago. 1:33:18.040 --> 1:33:19.080 Quote the dog Hit. 1:33:18.960 --> 1:33:21.400 Doctine has never been more relevant than right now, and 1:33:21.439 --> 1:33:23.160 it must be implemented end quote. 1:33:23.479 --> 1:33:25.280 Die here doctrine being the one that I just mentioned. 1:33:25.920 --> 1:33:28.360 And this is I said, not new, whether in the 1:33:28.360 --> 1:33:31.960 context of talking about Palestinians in the res a long 1:33:32.000 --> 1:33:35.280 before the ongoing genocide, whether in the context of talking 1:33:35.320 --> 1:33:38.240 about the Lebanese and so on, there has been this 1:33:38.439 --> 1:33:42.680 stain of open utterances of genocidal framing on behalf of 1:33:42.680 --> 1:33:46.160 like Israeli politicians and military leaders. One needs to notice 1:33:46.240 --> 1:33:49.000 to understand why they act in certain ways in Lebanon. 1:33:49.360 --> 1:33:51.439 If it was just about like you know, targeting their 1:33:51.560 --> 1:33:53.800 enemies or whatever, that would be like one one way 1:33:53.800 --> 1:33:57.000 of doing warfare. But it will then explain like detonating 1:33:57.160 --> 1:34:00.720 entire villages as they've been doing during the so ceasefire. 1:34:01.400 --> 1:34:05.000 It wouldn't explainplaining herbicide, which they did about a month 1:34:05.000 --> 1:34:07.800 ago over like large parts of Stuft Lebanon, including parts 1:34:07.800 --> 1:34:10.320 of Celia for that matter, which killed cops and so on. 1:34:10.360 --> 1:34:13.760 It would explain them not allowing farmers to harvest their cops. Know, 1:34:13.760 --> 1:34:16.240 it would explain all of these things. What would explain 1:34:16.280 --> 1:34:18.559 all of these things is if you take into account 1:34:18.920 --> 1:34:21.160 what they say the intentions are in Lebanon or the 1:34:21.200 --> 1:34:23.920 valley is what they want it to happen in Lebanon. 1:34:23.920 --> 1:34:24.559 If that makes sense. 1:34:25.080 --> 1:34:30.120 Yeah, it really seems like the Israeli policy, especially now 1:34:30.120 --> 1:34:33.120 that there's been really no accountability for what happened in Gaza. 1:34:33.760 --> 1:34:38.600 It's like basically to pursue maximum violence, including against civilians, 1:34:39.120 --> 1:34:41.240 and create I think kind of like a no man's 1:34:41.320 --> 1:34:45.479 land buffer zone around Israel. Now, there are some elements 1:34:45.520 --> 1:34:50.000 of Israeli society that are like religious scientists, like messianic 1:34:50.240 --> 1:34:54.479 types who want to like settle and like expand. But 1:34:54.520 --> 1:34:58.320 aside from those those people, like I think even we 1:34:58.360 --> 1:35:01.519 would call like centrists in or like the liberals in 1:35:01.640 --> 1:35:04.040 Israel are like, okay, well, yeah, we do need we 1:35:04.080 --> 1:35:06.040 do need a buffers, so we need a flatten gaza. 1:35:06.160 --> 1:35:08.200 We need to flatten Southern Lebanon. 1:35:08.840 --> 1:35:11.560 And what this translates to, I mean in Lebanon in 1:35:11.640 --> 1:35:15.320 particular is I think you know, some estimates say over 1:35:15.320 --> 1:35:17.599 a thousand have been killed in just the past like 1:35:17.640 --> 1:35:21.400 two and a half weeks. Yeah, and then millions displaced. 1:35:20.960 --> 1:35:22.960 Right, Yeah, twenty percent of the country. 1:35:23.040 --> 1:35:25.599 Lebanon is one of the smallest countries in the world, 1:35:26.160 --> 1:35:29.360 and South Lebanon is one of the only regions in 1:35:29.360 --> 1:35:31.200 the country that you might call like a bread basket 1:35:31.200 --> 1:35:33.840 in terms of agriculture. So yeah, twenty percent of the 1:35:33.840 --> 1:35:35.720 population has already been in this place, and those are 1:35:35.720 --> 1:35:37.040 those that could be registered. 1:35:37.160 --> 1:35:38.800 You can imagine number as being higher than that. 1:35:39.439 --> 1:35:41.400 And as I said, like a lot of those people 1:35:41.439 --> 1:35:44.679 have already been displaced a number of times before, even 1:35:44.680 --> 1:35:46.160 in twenty twenty four when there was the kind of 1:35:46.160 --> 1:35:49.240 the initial escalation, but many of them even going back 1:35:49.240 --> 1:35:50.720 to two thousand and six when there was the war, 1:35:50.800 --> 1:35:53.000 and in some cases even further back in the eighties 1:35:53.000 --> 1:35:55.720 and nineties when day is Lightlies occupied southern Lebanon. And 1:35:55.760 --> 1:35:58.360 I guess this is really important to note because obviously 1:35:58.400 --> 1:36:01.960 what's happening today is connected to the war on Iran. 1:36:02.040 --> 1:36:03.439 Of course it's directly connected. 1:36:04.160 --> 1:36:06.519 But if one only knows this, I think we missed 1:36:06.880 --> 1:36:08.439 what I would describe as a bit of an israel 1:36:08.479 --> 1:36:11.439 obsession with Lebanon specifically for a long time. 1:36:12.080 --> 1:36:14.000 There's like historical roots to all of this. 1:36:14.400 --> 1:36:17.320 It even goes back to the Israelis like having ties 1:36:17.360 --> 1:36:20.679 with like the local Christian far right in the sixties, 1:36:20.840 --> 1:36:22.040 especially as the seventies and. 1:36:22.000 --> 1:36:24.400 Eighties, like during the civil war, during the Civil. 1:36:24.200 --> 1:36:27.000 War in Lebanon, and a bit of this almost I 1:36:27.000 --> 1:36:30.080 mean ideological thing of like we will focus on the 1:36:30.120 --> 1:36:32.200 non Muslims and hope that they're on our side, that 1:36:32.600 --> 1:36:34.759 sort of thing, which is a policy that these Raelies 1:36:34.800 --> 1:36:38.479 have done within is A Palestine and in Syria. You know, 1:36:38.800 --> 1:36:40.600 this is an ongoing thing as well, and so on 1:36:40.680 --> 1:36:43.320 and so forth. I really want to emphasize this because 1:36:43.360 --> 1:36:45.000 I have had the experience when I hit a lot 1:36:45.000 --> 1:36:46.760 of the coverage and you know, listen to podcasts what 1:36:46.800 --> 1:36:50.720 have you that even among people who don't support the 1:36:50.760 --> 1:36:52.479 state of is read who are very critical of it, 1:36:53.000 --> 1:36:56.320 there tends to be understandably because Lebanon is less powerful 1:36:56.360 --> 1:36:58.640 than Iran, as you know, not as influential on a 1:36:58.680 --> 1:37:02.080 global scene or whatnot. But there's usually a tendency to 1:37:02.320 --> 1:37:05.200 link what happens in Lebanon directly to what's happening in Yon. 1:37:05.280 --> 1:37:07.040 And this has been two in the past few weeks. 1:37:07.200 --> 1:37:09.479 And as I said, says, of course partly the cases, 1:37:09.479 --> 1:37:12.519 it's not like completely un irrelevant. Has Bala did even 1:37:12.520 --> 1:37:14.680 stated that the reason why they launched those cockets was 1:37:14.760 --> 1:37:17.839 to avenge the assassination of Dietolus, of course is directly created. 1:37:18.360 --> 1:37:20.519 But there's all of this, like why they're in all 1:37:20.640 --> 1:37:24.360 the context that can help at the very least explain 1:37:24.439 --> 1:37:26.679 why the Asaetias are doing that in Lebanon and also 1:37:26.720 --> 1:37:29.040 help extain what's happening to Lebanon itself, which tends to 1:37:29.080 --> 1:37:30.200 be not as focused on. 1:37:30.840 --> 1:37:33.599 I mean, yeah, let's discuss for a moment where Lebanon 1:37:33.840 --> 1:37:39.200 was before these latest attacks, before the ceasefire, before October seventh. 1:37:39.640 --> 1:37:43.800 For the Lebanese people, it has been increasingly unlivable. There's 1:37:43.840 --> 1:37:48.160 been a financial crisis and economic crisis. Lebanon has hosted 1:37:48.680 --> 1:37:52.160 huge amounts of refugees from Syria from Palestine. Continues to 1:37:52.920 --> 1:37:57.479 these conditions now where effectively like what like half of 1:37:57.520 --> 1:38:01.160 the country is like inaccessible or some large portion of 1:38:01.160 --> 1:38:05.040 the country is inaccessible, The capital city is being bombed, 1:38:05.360 --> 1:38:09.080 residential buildings, like there's nothing kind of off limits. What 1:38:09.200 --> 1:38:12.599 is the situation now for for regular people who first 1:38:12.640 --> 1:38:16.200 and foremost have not had any kind of like sense 1:38:16.200 --> 1:38:19.599 of accountability from their own government and have had also 1:38:19.680 --> 1:38:23.879 his Babla sort of you know, acting unilaterally in some ways. 1:38:24.439 --> 1:38:27.760 Obviously this does not excuse it's really actions in any way. 1:38:27.920 --> 1:38:30.680 But what's the kind of like sense of emotion right 1:38:30.720 --> 1:38:31.960 now among Lebanese people? 1:38:32.600 --> 1:38:36.599 I mean, despair is I guess one word to describe it. 1:38:36.640 --> 1:38:39.560 There's there's definitely a sense of helplessness. His bubble is 1:38:39.600 --> 1:38:41.680 not a popular party in the country in terms of 1:38:41.720 --> 1:38:45.040 like the percentage of the population there is in actions, 1:38:45.320 --> 1:38:49.040 whether this one or like after October seventh, the decision 1:38:49.080 --> 1:38:51.160 to join the war was unpopular. 1:38:51.240 --> 1:38:52.240 Instead it is unpopular. 1:38:52.920 --> 1:38:55.479 There's something that the Israelis are trying to capitalize on, obviously, 1:38:56.240 --> 1:38:58.360 either because they want to just descoy the party, you 1:38:58.479 --> 1:39:00.519 because as part of doing that they also want to 1:39:00.520 --> 1:39:03.000 destabilize all of Lebanon sort of that both of those 1:39:03.040 --> 1:39:05.439 things are happening at the same time. The current government 1:39:05.439 --> 1:39:07.120 in Leblon is led by the guy who was the 1:39:07.160 --> 1:39:09.120 head of the ICJ when South Africa had started this 1:39:09.240 --> 1:39:11.479 case of accusing is that of genocide like a year 1:39:11.600 --> 1:39:13.840 or so ago. So he's by no means a naive 1:39:14.400 --> 1:39:17.200 of what Israeli intentions are. But I think what's really 1:39:17.200 --> 1:39:19.760 important to understand of what's kind of the mood of 1:39:19.800 --> 1:39:23.599 the country is the sense that no matter what we 1:39:23.720 --> 1:39:27.599 decide as a nation, it's completely out of our hands. 1:39:27.800 --> 1:39:30.880 And this goes beyond even questions related to has Buddler 1:39:30.920 --> 1:39:33.479 and has Bula's actions, because, as I said, even when 1:39:33.479 --> 1:39:36.880 Hesbula does not launch cockets or whatnot, the Israeli Is 1:39:36.920 --> 1:39:39.760 continue to violence as far as anyway, they in coach 1:39:39.840 --> 1:39:44.240 Land anyway, they dynamite entire villages anyway, they sprayed those 1:39:44.280 --> 1:39:47.240 herbicides and so on and so on anyway, And it's 1:39:47.240 --> 1:39:49.120 one of those things that it's also important to know 1:39:49.240 --> 1:39:51.160 this to understand why there are people, for example, in 1:39:51.200 --> 1:39:54.920 South Lebanon that, regardless of their personal feelings towards his 1:39:55.040 --> 1:39:58.360 bud Law, don't see any alternatives because in fact there 1:39:58.360 --> 1:40:01.040 are none. Something that I know isn't talked about as 1:40:01.120 --> 1:40:03.840 much and certainly not covered as much, is the fact 1:40:03.840 --> 1:40:05.800 that the armed force that is supposed to be the 1:40:05.840 --> 1:40:08.760 alternative to Hasbola. The thing that we hear about all 1:40:08.760 --> 1:40:11.240 the time that the Americans what they want is for 1:40:11.240 --> 1:40:13.960 Hasbola to be disarmed and for the Lebanese army to 1:40:14.000 --> 1:40:15.880 take over, and so on and so forth. And this 1:40:15.960 --> 1:40:18.640 is basically the stated goal of the entire world in 1:40:18.640 --> 1:40:20.720 a sense, but is a good chunk of it, and 1:40:20.720 --> 1:40:23.280 in fact it's officially the stated policy of the Liberines 1:40:23.360 --> 1:40:25.600 state itself. That is their intention as far as like 1:40:25.600 --> 1:40:28.040 their public declarations and so on, and they have made 1:40:28.040 --> 1:40:31.080 certain moves to that end as well. But the Libanese 1:40:31.160 --> 1:40:33.240 army is the army of a very poor country that 1:40:33.320 --> 1:40:35.960 has been in economic crisis for a long time. When 1:40:36.000 --> 1:40:39.280 we had wildfires in twenty nineteen, there wasn't even enough 1:40:39.360 --> 1:40:42.559 like equipment to tackle them, and like foreign government had 1:40:42.600 --> 1:40:45.960 to donate helicopters and stuff like that. And that Libanese 1:40:46.000 --> 1:40:48.559 army is also heavily subsidized, if you want to say, 1:40:48.680 --> 1:40:51.799 like funded in any case by the United States itself, 1:40:52.320 --> 1:40:55.200 the same United States that obviously heavily funds and arms 1:40:55.160 --> 1:40:58.439 the Israelis. Of course, the weapons that the Lebanese get 1:40:58.640 --> 1:41:00.840 is nothing compared to the weapons that the Israelis get. 1:41:00.920 --> 1:41:03.120 There's no such thing as an iron dome in Lebanon. 1:41:03.600 --> 1:41:06.680 None of these things are available to the Lebanese. And 1:41:06.720 --> 1:41:10.120 so effectively, what is being asked off Lebanon itself, and 1:41:10.200 --> 1:41:12.719 especially of South Lebanon, of the Ahia and East Lebanon, 1:41:13.000 --> 1:41:17.000 ultimately of all of Lebanon, is that just accept your fate. 1:41:17.760 --> 1:41:19.840 Just accept that there's nothing you can do about the 1:41:19.880 --> 1:41:22.280 Israel least, there's nothing you can do about their actions 1:41:22.320 --> 1:41:25.400 in Lebanon proper. I'm not even talking about any actions 1:41:25.439 --> 1:41:27.599 like rockets towards this, and I'm talking to their actions 1:41:27.640 --> 1:41:31.879 in Lebanon itself and they're also asking has wella for example, 1:41:31.920 --> 1:41:34.880 to this arm which in itself I am not opposed to, 1:41:35.479 --> 1:41:37.640 but in the context of what has been happening, in 1:41:37.680 --> 1:41:40.600 the context of what's happening now, I think it's ludicrous 1:41:40.640 --> 1:41:43.200 to imagine that people in any context, like in South Lebanon, 1:41:43.520 --> 1:41:48.200 who have decades now long experience of seeing Israeli occupation, 1:41:48.280 --> 1:41:51.640 of seeing Israeli troops on their lands, no matter like 1:41:51.880 --> 1:41:54.880 multiple different you know, different prime ministers in Israel taking 1:41:54.920 --> 1:41:57.080 the charge and whatnot, but that continuing to be this 1:41:57.200 --> 1:41:59.639 kind of almost eternal fact. In a sense at least, 1:41:59.640 --> 1:42:02.560 that's how that's how it feels they're being asked to 1:42:02.760 --> 1:42:06.120 just disarm and hope for the best. That's really like 1:42:06.160 --> 1:42:09.400 effectively the policy towards Lebanon at the moment. Like I 1:42:09.439 --> 1:42:11.200 saw an interview with one of the French ministers a 1:42:11.240 --> 1:42:14.519 few few days ago, and she was asked like, why 1:42:14.520 --> 1:42:17.280 aren't we doing more to help Lebanon by someone in 1:42:17.320 --> 1:42:19.120 the audience or whatever, and she said that, like, we're 1:42:19.160 --> 1:42:23.160 sending humanitarian aid, and we have UNIFIL forces in southern 1:42:23.240 --> 1:42:26.880 Lebanon and so on, UNIFUIL forces those and peace keeping forces. 1:42:26.880 --> 1:42:28.920 As I said, don't have a legal right to even 1:42:28.960 --> 1:42:32.880 retaliate against the Israels, including when Israel bombs them, which 1:42:32.920 --> 1:42:35.000 it has done at least twice in the past few weeks. 1:42:35.479 --> 1:42:38.240 The Lebanese army really engages with Israelis, they don't even 1:42:38.320 --> 1:42:41.080 have the means in the first place, And so what 1:42:41.280 --> 1:42:43.600 do people expected to do? And this is sort of 1:42:43.640 --> 1:42:46.479 the context in which everything else almost doesn't matter, Like 1:42:46.520 --> 1:42:49.519 in terms of whether you personally like the Hasiboddla, I 1:42:49.600 --> 1:42:53.559 certainly don't, and whatever, like ones personal feelings or even 1:42:53.600 --> 1:42:57.320 politics is towards a political party because they're also members 1:42:57.320 --> 1:43:00.519 of the Lebanese Parliament, towards the state itself. It is 1:43:00.960 --> 1:43:04.120 that it really feels it ultimately, it's like out of 1:43:04.160 --> 1:43:07.120 our hands. And this is like a component of this 1:43:07.360 --> 1:43:10.200 entire thing that I really see, to be honest discussed 1:43:10.240 --> 1:43:12.719 as though like there are like two sides to the story, 1:43:12.840 --> 1:43:14.720 or like two equal armed actors for that even none 1:43:14.720 --> 1:43:17.080 on like equal states for that matter, and it's just 1:43:17.120 --> 1:43:17.639 not the case. 1:43:17.960 --> 1:43:20.040 Yeah, thank you so much for laying that out like that. 1:43:20.200 --> 1:43:22.880 I think that you're right that it's not well acknowledged 1:43:23.120 --> 1:43:27.799 how disempowered the international community basically expects people in the region, 1:43:27.800 --> 1:43:30.559 including the Lebanese, to behave and like accept the fact 1:43:30.560 --> 1:43:34.040 that they are collateral damage in Israel's you know, perpetual 1:43:34.960 --> 1:43:49.879 desire for domination. American political scientist Nathan Brown just published 1:43:49.920 --> 1:43:52.960 this article called Israel's Forever Wars for the Carnegie Domat. 1:43:53.439 --> 1:43:56.360 His argument is that there's been a shift in the 1:43:56.520 --> 1:43:59.760 Israeli policy where he says it used to be the 1:44:00.360 --> 1:44:03.479 domination and diplomacy have long blended in Israeli statecraft, and 1:44:03.520 --> 1:44:06.920 today he says, they've been eclipsed by something Harsher quote 1:44:07.120 --> 1:44:10.320 a preference for domination, degradation and the prevention of the 1:44:10.320 --> 1:44:14.160 adversaries recovery. I mean, I think he's right, though, I 1:44:14.200 --> 1:44:16.880 think that we've seen kind of a at least a 1:44:16.920 --> 1:44:19.559 lower intensity, maybe not as high intensity, but we've seen 1:44:19.800 --> 1:44:23.960 a long scale policy of domination even before this moment. 1:44:24.000 --> 1:44:26.360 But I think this moment does definitely bring it out, 1:44:26.680 --> 1:44:29.320 which brings me to my question of like for Hesbola 1:44:29.360 --> 1:44:33.400 in particular, in the last year two years, like, there 1:44:33.400 --> 1:44:36.920 have been assassinations, we saw the Pager attack. You know, 1:44:37.280 --> 1:44:41.479 it seems that Hesbola has been very effectively weakened, and 1:44:41.600 --> 1:44:45.240 since the Israelians are now kind of going all out. 1:44:45.720 --> 1:44:48.120 What do you think is going to happen to Hezbolas 1:44:48.479 --> 1:44:52.160 as a group, set aside perhaps their public support or 1:44:52.439 --> 1:44:53.439 you know, lack thereof. 1:44:53.880 --> 1:44:56.240 So it's important to note that Hezbola comes from a 1:44:56.240 --> 1:44:58.880 certain context, are they as in the context of South 1:44:58.960 --> 1:45:02.400 lebanojing the isla ocupation of South Lebanon. There goes as 1:45:02.400 --> 1:45:05.080 the alternative to existing parties that were either seen as 1:45:05.080 --> 1:45:07.400 to complicity with the Israelis or maybe too weak or 1:45:07.439 --> 1:45:10.920 complacent or whatnot. And essentially because there was a need 1:45:11.560 --> 1:45:13.439 for something like has Ball at the time. And again 1:45:13.479 --> 1:45:16.880 this is completely regardless of my personal opposition to a 1:45:16.880 --> 1:45:19.040 lot of their politics, whether it's in Lebanon or especially 1:45:19.080 --> 1:45:22.479 in Syria. But that question, if you're going to call 1:45:22.479 --> 1:45:25.120 it the Lebanese question, it's completely being side stepped. 1:45:25.160 --> 1:45:26.479 It's not being tackled whatsoever. 1:45:26.920 --> 1:45:29.639 And in fact it's not that dissimilar I think from 1:45:29.880 --> 1:45:32.920 the Israeli attempt to erase or high to pretend as 1:45:32.960 --> 1:45:35.200 of the Palestinian question as well as can be completely 1:45:35.240 --> 1:45:38.040 side stepped. But they can just continue to pursue this 1:45:38.560 --> 1:45:41.000 policy of just complete domination, as you said, you know, 1:45:41.040 --> 1:45:44.040 make these Applemic codeas with the UEE and other some 1:45:44.080 --> 1:45:47.639 of the other Arab states, for example, without any mentions 1:45:47.680 --> 1:45:49.840 of Palestine and Palestinians and so on and so forth. 1:45:50.280 --> 1:45:52.759 And in the case of Lebanon is like less official 1:45:52.960 --> 1:45:56.160 because there isn't that component, but sort of the spirit 1:45:56.240 --> 1:45:59.200 of it is pretty similar. There is a sort of 1:45:59.240 --> 1:46:02.280 like illegally legalistic framework of the Land for Peace, and 1:46:02.320 --> 1:46:04.720 I think explaining that at least briefly would I think 1:46:04.760 --> 1:46:07.559 could actualize the quote that even you just read out 1:46:07.560 --> 1:46:10.519 to us here that you know, the Israelis occupied Arab 1:46:10.600 --> 1:46:14.479 terriatories in nineteen sixty seven. Palestinitary there obviously they're being 1:46:14.600 --> 1:46:17.200 guzz at the West Bank, and is Jerusalem. Egypt, of 1:46:17.200 --> 1:46:20.519 course was the Sinai and Ciria was and still is 1:46:20.560 --> 1:46:23.040 the Golden Heights. And so that the Land for Peace 1:46:23.479 --> 1:46:26.280 quote unquote worked. In the case of Egypt, they occupied 1:46:26.280 --> 1:46:28.400 the Sinai and then as part of a peace deal 1:46:28.439 --> 1:46:31.080 with Egypt they returned the Sinai to the Egyptians. 1:46:31.760 --> 1:46:34.280 It didn't happen with Syria. 1:46:34.439 --> 1:46:38.160 The Sian Golden Heights have been occupied since nineteen sixty seven, 1:46:38.360 --> 1:46:41.599 were effectively the factor annexed in nineteen eighty one. They've 1:46:41.600 --> 1:46:44.479 been annexed for so long that Smotrich himself was born 1:46:44.560 --> 1:46:48.720 in an illegal settlement in the Sying Golden Heights. And 1:46:48.960 --> 1:46:52.439 I'm mentioning this because the Lebanese state, the Prime Minister 1:46:52.479 --> 1:46:55.360 I mentioned earlier about what a week ago, ten days 1:46:55.400 --> 1:46:58.040 ago or so, said that he's hoping for a Land 1:46:58.040 --> 1:47:01.959 for Peace framework, which to me shows just how desperate 1:47:02.479 --> 1:47:05.040 even they are, like they don't know what to do, 1:47:05.080 --> 1:47:07.200 they have no options in front of them. So what 1:47:07.240 --> 1:47:10.080 they're hoping is that by doing all of these things 1:47:10.120 --> 1:47:13.160 public declarations against hezball law I, declaining some of the 1:47:13.200 --> 1:47:15.960 activities illegal by I think like a few days ago 1:47:16.040 --> 1:47:18.280 they said that the media cannot call them the resistance, 1:47:18.320 --> 1:47:20.760 for example, which is there in Arabic how they would 1:47:20.760 --> 1:47:23.360 be referred to, and so on and so forth, these 1:47:23.360 --> 1:47:27.320 attempts to placate the Americans especially, and so on, and 1:47:27.360 --> 1:47:30.080 maybe like show that you know, we're doing something about. 1:47:29.800 --> 1:47:30.599 This, can you stop? 1:47:30.640 --> 1:47:33.800 The Israelis essentially haven't achieved anything there is really have 1:47:33.960 --> 1:47:37.040 just escalated, continue to escalate, continue to bomb more and 1:47:37.080 --> 1:47:39.879 more and more larger in larger parts of the country. 1:47:40.479 --> 1:47:42.680 But that Land for Peace framework which is the frame 1:47:42.720 --> 1:47:45.160 of since the sixties basically is as far as I 1:47:45.160 --> 1:47:46.880 can tell right now, the only thing that the Debanese 1:47:46.920 --> 1:47:51.520 government hope that they can even use. But the difficulty 1:47:51.520 --> 1:47:53.360 in all of that, like a, I don't think it's 1:47:53.439 --> 1:47:56.320 it's realistic because of the same example, like they haven't 1:47:56.360 --> 1:47:58.680 they have never given up their Golden Heights. I don't 1:47:58.720 --> 1:48:00.839 see any reason why they would if they do decide 1:48:01.000 --> 1:48:04.040 to occupy all the stuth Lebanon. And also because the 1:48:04.160 --> 1:48:05.960 shift and this is what you're referring to with that 1:48:06.040 --> 1:48:09.080 code of that person you mentioned, the shift in Israeli 1:48:09.080 --> 1:48:12.880 politics in the past few decades. Isn't even that if 1:48:12.920 --> 1:48:15.479 you might call it strategic that like we're going to 1:48:15.520 --> 1:48:17.320 do the thing even if it's illegal. We're going to 1:48:17.320 --> 1:48:20.080 occupy land if it's illegal. But sort of like the 1:48:20.160 --> 1:48:23.840 ultimate purpose of it is something that resembles some kind 1:48:23.880 --> 1:48:28.800 of diplomatic negotiation. It's domination almost for its own sake. 1:48:29.479 --> 1:48:32.600 There is no end goal necessarily. You mentioned there of 1:48:32.600 --> 1:48:34.920 course religious Zionists, but you also have others that are 1:48:34.960 --> 1:48:37.880 not interested in settlements. They're just interested in destroying the land, 1:48:38.200 --> 1:48:40.120 like destroying having this so called buffer zone, which is 1:48:40.120 --> 1:48:43.280 a euphemism for just in no man's lands, just destroying everything. 1:48:43.760 --> 1:48:46.760 And so the policy can shift in a sense, but 1:48:46.840 --> 1:48:49.519 the intention is to just try and dominate for as 1:48:49.560 --> 1:48:52.680 long as possible for its own sake. And this is 1:48:52.720 --> 1:48:56.200 a wider pattern in Israeli politics that I don't know 1:48:56.240 --> 1:48:58.519 how well understood. It is maybe a bit more now 1:48:58.560 --> 1:49:02.160 than before, because even before the ongoing war you unstarted theft. 1:49:02.160 --> 1:49:04.479 Tally Bennet, who was the Prime Minister of Israel and 1:49:04.760 --> 1:49:07.760 reportedly wants to replace Natanya, who in the upcoming elections, 1:49:07.920 --> 1:49:11.280 said that Turkey is the next Evon. But virtually any 1:49:11.800 --> 1:49:15.800 Israeli paper center and further to the right, which is 1:49:15.800 --> 1:49:18.040 most of them, you read them, there is someone who 1:49:18.040 --> 1:49:19.760 has at some point in this I'm not talking to 1:49:19.840 --> 1:49:21.839 this a random person, I'm talking like a high ranking 1:49:21.880 --> 1:49:24.840 politician and military official at some point this hype like 1:49:24.920 --> 1:49:28.160 Turkey as being next. And what needs to be understood 1:49:28.160 --> 1:49:30.400 with all of this is not or can they actually 1:49:30.479 --> 1:49:31.160 do this or whatnot? 1:49:31.200 --> 1:49:32.599 Because maybe they can't. I don't know. 1:49:32.840 --> 1:49:35.760 I hope we never find out, but it's that like 1:49:35.800 --> 1:49:39.800 they can't stop. It's becoming an end in itself. There 1:49:39.840 --> 1:49:41.479 has to be an enemy there has to be a 1:49:41.520 --> 1:49:45.479 constant creation almost of like an external enemy in like 1:49:45.520 --> 1:49:49.800 in Israeli political discourse today, because nothing else works in 1:49:49.800 --> 1:49:50.559 Italy politics. 1:49:50.600 --> 1:49:53.120 And this is a shift in Isaeli politics in the past. 1:49:53.120 --> 1:49:54.639 I'm going to say, I don't know, two three decades, 1:49:54.640 --> 1:49:57.880 don't know how one would start counting that shift. And 1:49:57.920 --> 1:50:00.840 it does go back to the Palestinian question, and in 1:50:00.880 --> 1:50:03.439 the sense of like them not wanting to address it 1:50:03.520 --> 1:50:06.240 at all, not even pretending that they're going to, because 1:50:06.240 --> 1:50:09.000 they've been pretending, you know, obviously not actually doing it, 1:50:09.040 --> 1:50:10.720 but even pretending that, you know, they were doing so 1:50:10.760 --> 1:50:13.240 with the Austro accord and whatnot. There isn't even that 1:50:13.560 --> 1:50:17.519 I think it's useful to understand their attitude towards Lebanon 1:50:17.960 --> 1:50:21.400 as at least in part, a continuation of that attitude 1:50:21.439 --> 1:50:24.439 towards Palestinians, and in many ways, like the Palestine question itself, 1:50:24.520 --> 1:50:27.559 he means the one that they want to avoid at 1:50:27.560 --> 1:50:31.160 all costs, and whatever that means, bombing Iran, bombing Lebanon, 1:50:31.560 --> 1:50:34.400 bombing other countries later I don't know, obviously bombing year 1:50:34.439 --> 1:50:36.200 they've already done it, you know, and so on and 1:50:36.200 --> 1:50:36.679 so forth. 1:50:37.040 --> 1:50:39.559 Genocide as a tool of concept management. 1:50:39.960 --> 1:50:43.240 Yeah, yeah, it's just domination, I said, for its own sake, 1:50:43.280 --> 1:50:46.120 because they can't imagine any kind of other alternative, and 1:50:46.600 --> 1:50:49.120 they haven't had a need to do so, because you know, 1:50:49.120 --> 1:50:51.759 as you said, they've gotten away with a livestream genocide 1:50:51.800 --> 1:50:54.280 for over two years now, why would they think differently 1:50:54.360 --> 1:50:57.840 about Lebanon, a very poor country that you know, doesn't 1:50:57.880 --> 1:51:00.720 have that many resources and whatnot. Which isn't to say 1:51:00.720 --> 1:51:03.519 that they would succeed and they will win and so on. 1:51:03.600 --> 1:51:05.719 But what they've been saying this is the intention. 1:51:06.479 --> 1:51:07.599 I think that's very valid. 1:51:08.080 --> 1:51:10.439 I mean, it's not a coincidence you said, you know, 1:51:11.080 --> 1:51:13.040 you would try to trace it back to like the 1:51:13.040 --> 1:51:15.360 past two or three decades. It's not a coincidence that 1:51:15.880 --> 1:51:21.719 this mentality and this you know, reorientation of Israel's entire 1:51:21.800 --> 1:51:27.000 policy especially comes after the end of the Second Pausani 1:51:27.080 --> 1:51:31.200 Intfalda and then not even just no meaningful negotiations, no 1:51:31.320 --> 1:51:34.360 negotiations at all. Like you said, there was the Land 1:51:34.400 --> 1:51:38.240 for Peace mantra. The idea with that is that they 1:51:38.240 --> 1:51:41.120 were going to get peace if they give back land. 1:51:41.200 --> 1:51:43.280 But the underlying assumption of that is that they would 1:51:43.280 --> 1:51:47.880 be held accountable by the international community by their own allies. 1:51:48.439 --> 1:51:52.400 After the Second Intafauda, basically the Americans and the international 1:51:52.400 --> 1:51:56.920 community gave up, essentially even pretending that Palestinians would ever 1:51:57.520 --> 1:52:01.880 get anything. This has culminated now and Israel that as 1:52:01.880 --> 1:52:04.840 you said, it's domination for domination's sake, and they think 1:52:05.160 --> 1:52:10.200 that they can maintain control in this way. Now Turkey 1:52:10.360 --> 1:52:12.479 is going to be a different beast than Iran. Turkey's 1:52:12.520 --> 1:52:16.000 and NATO member. But as we've seen in the last 1:52:16.040 --> 1:52:19.720 couple of weeks, like they don't care about blowing up 1:52:19.760 --> 1:52:22.120 the entire region, they don't care about the Strait up 1:52:22.160 --> 1:52:24.959 Hormus being closed, they don't care about oil fields being attacked, 1:52:24.960 --> 1:52:27.599 and they don't care about you know, the global economy tanking. 1:52:27.680 --> 1:52:31.080 Like it's not inconceivable that they attack Turkey, even if 1:52:31.080 --> 1:52:33.080 the outcome might be different or we might see like 1:52:33.479 --> 1:52:36.880 further escalations, it's not inconceivable. And now I just want 1:52:36.920 --> 1:52:39.519 to point this out the very kind of pro Israel 1:52:39.640 --> 1:52:43.280 think tank in Washington, the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy. 1:52:43.720 --> 1:52:47.639 Their new line now is to say land for peace 1:52:47.680 --> 1:52:53.360 is outdated. Now we need to pursue instead peace for land, Yeah, 1:52:53.400 --> 1:52:57.080 which means acceptance of Zionism earns these people a right 1:52:57.479 --> 1:52:58.479 to govern themselves. 1:53:09.360 --> 1:53:12.360 It's a politicular vision that does not see the other 1:53:12.880 --> 1:53:16.519 as humans, as having agency, as as as deserving anything. 1:53:16.880 --> 1:53:20.040 It's not like they have an opposing side on an 1:53:20.080 --> 1:53:23.400 opponent that they want to defeat, but ultimately have some 1:53:23.520 --> 1:53:26.320 kind of settlement or or and move beyond that or whatnot. 1:53:26.760 --> 1:53:29.000 There is no long term plan, is what I'm trying 1:53:29.040 --> 1:53:30.080 to say, I guess. 1:53:30.080 --> 1:53:31.840 And maybe to emphasize a bit more in the case 1:53:31.880 --> 1:53:33.840 in the case of Lebinon, like, so, what happens next 1:53:33.840 --> 1:53:36.519 for Hesbela, for example, I'm not entirely sure. 1:53:36.520 --> 1:53:38.080 I don't I don't think anyone really knows. 1:53:38.120 --> 1:53:42.520 It's it seems clear that the Israelis underestimated their capabilities. 1:53:42.920 --> 1:53:45.639 But to what extent that will matter if the Israels 1:53:45.640 --> 1:53:47.760 continue to just bomb and bomb and bomb Lebanon for 1:53:47.880 --> 1:53:49.559 weeks on end, if not on end, and so on, 1:53:50.040 --> 1:53:52.280 I can't tell. What I can tell is that in 1:53:52.320 --> 1:53:54.560 the same way as the Israelis want to ignore the 1:53:54.640 --> 1:53:58.160 Palestinian question, but it's still it's still there. It haunts 1:53:58.160 --> 1:54:02.320 them in a way because I work onontology, and in 1:54:02.360 --> 1:54:03.040 case of Lebanon. 1:54:03.080 --> 1:54:05.439 There is also that in many ways that. 1:54:05.520 --> 1:54:07.439 If you look at the shift in this course, even 1:54:07.439 --> 1:54:10.679 within Israeli politics from like let's say seventies, but especially 1:54:10.680 --> 1:54:13.760 eighties onwards. I'm not going to say it was never good, 1:54:13.880 --> 1:54:17.800 but there was a stronger component of the Israeli politicians, 1:54:17.880 --> 1:54:20.679 let's say, like a higher percentage of them anyway, that were, 1:54:20.880 --> 1:54:23.599 for lack of a better term, pragmatic that we're willing 1:54:23.640 --> 1:54:25.759 to have concessions, that we're wanting to have whatever, because 1:54:25.880 --> 1:54:27.719 if only because they just did not want to deal 1:54:27.760 --> 1:54:30.600 with like occupying a foreign country that they had no 1:54:30.640 --> 1:54:33.520 intention to legally annexed, as they did with the legally 1:54:33.680 --> 1:54:35.360 none of this is legal, but like within Israel law, 1:54:35.400 --> 1:54:37.760 I mean, as they did with the Golden Heights. And 1:54:37.800 --> 1:54:39.560 so that's what I'm saying in the case of Lebanon, 1:54:39.640 --> 1:54:42.680 that it's almost like the worst case scenario is what's 1:54:42.720 --> 1:54:43.520 currently happening. 1:54:43.560 --> 1:54:45.240 And that's like completely. 1:54:44.720 --> 1:54:48.120 Regardless of what happens to Hesbola, because Hezbola can disappeared 1:54:48.120 --> 1:54:50.960 tomorrow and the problem will continue to be the same, 1:54:51.000 --> 1:54:54.760 if not just get worse. The country has no economy 1:54:54.880 --> 1:54:58.120 to speak of, the currency was already devalued during the 1:54:58.120 --> 1:54:59.320 economic crisis, was one of the. 1:54:59.320 --> 1:55:00.720 Highest value in the world. 1:55:01.240 --> 1:55:05.400 And there are no prospects going forward in terms of 1:55:05.400 --> 1:55:08.520 like making this accountry that can even sustain itself. It's 1:55:08.520 --> 1:55:12.400 already very like import dependent. But if you exclude the 1:55:12.920 --> 1:55:15.920 South Lebanon and it being a bread basket, East Lebanon 1:55:15.960 --> 1:55:18.520 as well, by the way, it's also a bread basket, 1:55:18.560 --> 1:55:21.360 and that's another aa of Lebanon that the realies have 1:55:21.440 --> 1:55:25.240 been constantly bombarding, to paraphrase, that is really ministered that like, 1:55:25.320 --> 1:55:27.320 Lebanon is not a state, it's not a nation. It doesn't, 1:55:27.520 --> 1:55:29.760 it doesn't, it's just a place that's on the map. 1:55:30.280 --> 1:55:32.120 And that will. 1:55:31.920 --> 1:55:34.600 Pose a problem obviously first and foremost for us, like 1:55:34.680 --> 1:55:36.800 for the Lebanese and people who live in Lebanon, but 1:55:36.920 --> 1:55:40.280 it's also a problem geopolitically. It's a problem internationally. It 1:55:40.320 --> 1:55:42.560 will freak out the EU in terms of the refugee 1:55:42.560 --> 1:55:45.760 crisis because the EU has actually counted on Lebanon to 1:55:46.000 --> 1:55:48.400 keep a lot of people in Lebanon. They extend like 1:55:48.400 --> 1:55:50.200 a billion euros. I think it was two or three 1:55:50.280 --> 1:55:51.800 years ago or something like that. I got about it 1:55:51.800 --> 1:55:54.280 twitches a year at the time. Actually because Lebanon had 1:55:54.360 --> 1:55:56.600 the highest percentage maybe still does now. I don't know 1:55:56.880 --> 1:55:59.520 of refugees per capital, so to speak, like compared to 1:55:59.640 --> 1:56:02.920 citizens in the world one million or so sceneor refugees 1:56:03.040 --> 1:56:05.240 with got three five million Lebanese or something like that 1:56:05.280 --> 1:56:05.880 along those lines. 1:56:05.880 --> 1:56:06.960 There's no census in Lebanon. 1:56:07.560 --> 1:56:10.160 So I'm saying all of this to sort of emphasize 1:56:10.200 --> 1:56:12.960 the why there is this sense of despair in the 1:56:13.000 --> 1:56:17.240 country and why if that's not even remotely addressed. Whatever 1:56:17.360 --> 1:56:19.840 fires we're seeing now, whatever like hors we're seeing, I 1:56:19.960 --> 1:56:23.040 just don't see any any way. They will stop anytime soon, 1:56:23.320 --> 1:56:25.640 whatever happens, even to his bottle next. There's no reason 1:56:25.680 --> 1:56:29.200 to imagine that some other group wouldn't be formed at 1:56:29.200 --> 1:56:32.760 some point because people live there, people are from that lane. 1:56:32.760 --> 1:56:36.160 We're talking about a million people. They have nowhere else 1:56:36.200 --> 1:56:38.680 to go. It's not like the Lebanese passport is so 1:56:38.720 --> 1:56:40.080 good that you can just you know, go on a 1:56:40.080 --> 1:56:41.920 flight and go so but there's nowhere else. They're just 1:56:41.960 --> 1:56:43.920 going to stay in Lebanon, and many of them would 1:56:43.920 --> 1:56:45.640 want to, of course go back to South Lebanon. 1:56:45.880 --> 1:56:47.480 This problem is not going away. 1:56:47.920 --> 1:56:51.400 But if you hear the rhetoric of your Nitanyajo, you're 1:56:51.440 --> 1:56:54.280 you're in your other politicians, like this is not part 1:56:54.280 --> 1:56:55.920 of the picture. This has nothing to do with what 1:56:55.960 --> 1:57:00.320 their intentions are. They're exclusively talking to other Israelis. Is 1:57:00.320 --> 1:57:04.280 not whether we should destroy South Lebanon or whether we 1:57:04.320 --> 1:57:05.839 should destroy Lebanon itself. 1:57:06.120 --> 1:57:08.280 The debate is what do we do once it's destroyed? 1:57:08.600 --> 1:57:10.360 And even that it is barely a debate, but like 1:57:10.400 --> 1:57:12.080 that's the extent of where it goes in terms of 1:57:12.120 --> 1:57:15.200 like it's really discourse. And yeah, I guess maybe just 1:57:15.200 --> 1:57:17.800 to drive the point home that if the Israelis themselves 1:57:17.880 --> 1:57:21.280 are not stopped in one way or another by their allies, 1:57:21.280 --> 1:57:23.480 obvious the America has the biggest leverage, or the EU 1:57:23.640 --> 1:57:25.800 being the second closest one in one way or another, 1:57:26.440 --> 1:57:30.560 whatever the means are. Economic boycott withdrawing your ambassador as 1:57:30.600 --> 1:57:32.520 Pain has done a couple of weeks ago. But just 1:57:32.560 --> 1:57:35.760 like on a global scale, like even maybe dwarfing the 1:57:36.360 --> 1:57:39.840 and the boycott campaign against Aparthe South Africa at the time, 1:57:40.680 --> 1:57:43.400 this problem is just going to expand, and people in 1:57:43.440 --> 1:57:46.280 listening to this of course see that seeing version of 1:57:46.320 --> 1:57:49.200 that Iran can just close the strait of Homus and 1:57:49.200 --> 1:57:52.960 then suddenly everyone this is everyone's problem is well and 1:57:53.160 --> 1:57:55.720 America bombing those oil depots, and of course Elon has 1:57:55.720 --> 1:57:59.240 also done that in retaliation, but proportionately still more the 1:57:59.240 --> 1:58:03.160 Americans in this Ali has polluted like I forgot the number, 1:58:03.160 --> 1:58:06.040 but like the equivalent of like eighty four countries combined 1:58:06.640 --> 1:58:08.760 in terms of like the toxins release in these are 1:58:08.760 --> 1:58:11.640 things that people in Iran are breathing in. And the 1:58:11.800 --> 1:58:15.880 entire region relies on design nation plants. And the Americans 1:58:15.880 --> 1:58:18.960 bombed one in Iran, Iran retaliated and bombed another one 1:58:19.000 --> 1:58:23.960 in Bahrain. If that continues, who knows. There's been increasing attems, 1:58:24.120 --> 1:58:27.200 not as attems, actually strikes, including just yesterday against like 1:58:27.600 --> 1:58:30.360 nuclear facilities or like close enough to nuclear facilities, so 1:58:30.400 --> 1:58:31.400 who knows what would have happen. 1:58:31.440 --> 1:58:33.400 Then to say it's out of control. 1:58:33.160 --> 1:58:35.840 Would be like meaningless at this point, But there are 1:58:36.000 --> 1:58:39.440 levels of where this can go. And Lebanon is in 1:58:40.040 --> 1:58:43.280 a sense like deceivingly small. There's a book Would Beware 1:58:43.280 --> 1:58:46.520 of Small States that talks about Lebanon because a lot 1:58:46.560 --> 1:58:48.840 of the world is happening in Lebanon. To put it 1:58:48.880 --> 1:58:51.640 to kind of put it maybe metaphorically, and the trends 1:58:51.720 --> 1:58:54.600 that are being done to the Lebanese or two people 1:58:54.640 --> 1:58:57.080 in Lebanon, like the DOJ doctrine in two thousand and 1:58:57.160 --> 1:59:01.000 six was then used in Gaza, obviously, and now they're 1:59:01.000 --> 1:59:03.879 saying that they're going to use the Gaza methodology in Lebanon's. 1:59:03.880 --> 1:59:05.640 It's like it came back to Lebanon in a sense. 1:59:06.080 --> 1:59:08.440 But the point is that this will continue. There is 1:59:08.480 --> 1:59:11.280 no objective reason to believe that if has Bola is 1:59:11.320 --> 1:59:15.560 destroyed and completely disarmed and what have you, that this 1:59:15.960 --> 1:59:18.480 problem is going to go away, because if anything, a 1:59:18.560 --> 1:59:21.240 new beast of some kind is going to be to 1:59:21.320 --> 1:59:23.400 be created in the fires in the same way that 1:59:23.400 --> 1:59:26.240 has Bola was hated in the initial ones. And so yeah, 1:59:26.320 --> 1:59:28.680 the problem ultimately, and I say this as someone who 1:59:28.720 --> 1:59:33.040 has been campaigning, writing, gotten the death threats from like 1:59:33.080 --> 1:59:36.400 Hesballa supporters in twenty nineteen when I was as part 1:59:36.400 --> 1:59:38.360 of the protest, we were beaten up by them. This 1:59:38.600 --> 1:59:42.400 comes from no sympathy whatsoever towards them. It's just an acknowledgement, 1:59:42.680 --> 1:59:44.800 I'm also a historian, that they come from a certain 1:59:44.840 --> 1:59:48.760 context and if that context is not acknowledged at all, 1:59:48.800 --> 1:59:51.040 and in fact the conditions that brought them are now 1:59:51.320 --> 1:59:54.840 much worse than even the eighties. Why would we believe 1:59:54.880 --> 1:59:57.840 that something else won't come along later on in one 1:59:57.840 --> 2:00:00.880 way or another. And this no that the Aeties have 2:00:01.000 --> 2:00:04.280 they're just a buffer zone and then destabilized Lebanon endlessly 2:00:04.400 --> 2:00:06.800 or whatever it might be. It also comes from like 2:00:06.840 --> 2:00:09.000 the sort of imperious hubiists that they believe that this 2:00:09.160 --> 2:00:11.680 won't harm them in one way or another, that they 2:00:11.720 --> 2:00:15.960 can endlessly and permanently have enabled to their north that 2:00:16.080 --> 2:00:18.680 has a lot of armed components and also constantly. 2:00:18.280 --> 2:00:19.640 At war or whatever it might be. 2:00:20.200 --> 2:00:23.360 It's Hubans, it's imperiadt hubids, and it's also extremely extremely 2:00:23.400 --> 2:00:26.560 dangerous even beyond just what would happen to people in Lebanon. 2:00:27.160 --> 2:00:30.960 Yeah, it's hard to, like you said, underscore how apocalyptic 2:00:31.880 --> 2:00:35.360 this is turning out to be, whether it's we're worried 2:00:35.400 --> 2:00:38.440 about the refugee waves that are going to be generated 2:00:38.440 --> 2:00:41.360 because of this, whether we're worried about the ecological impact, 2:00:42.240 --> 2:00:47.000 whether we're worried about non state actors, militia groups, violent 2:00:47.040 --> 2:00:48.280 groups emerging in the future. 2:00:48.360 --> 2:00:51.160 Like, on every level, this is not sustainable. 2:00:51.680 --> 2:00:52.040 I don't know. 2:00:52.080 --> 2:00:55.640 I feel like I'm screaming into a void. Except we've known, 2:00:55.880 --> 2:00:58.600 We've known, like you said, for decades that this is 2:00:58.640 --> 2:01:02.000 not sustainable. This is this is not a sustainable situation 2:01:02.120 --> 2:01:04.760 in the Middle East. And I want people to know 2:01:05.000 --> 2:01:07.200 that this is not a trumpet problem. 2:01:07.800 --> 2:01:08.720 This has long. 2:01:08.560 --> 2:01:14.080 Been a problem of American decision makers. Biden in particular, 2:01:14.640 --> 2:01:17.600 also like bears a lot to blame for this situation. 2:01:18.920 --> 2:01:22.600 It's just like you said, it's an imperial hubris, both 2:01:22.640 --> 2:01:25.200 on the part of Israel and the United States. But 2:01:26.280 --> 2:01:30.840 it's also at its root the fact that they completely 2:01:30.880 --> 2:01:34.000 dehumanize people in the Middle East, like they don't see 2:01:34.000 --> 2:01:40.880 them as as human beings that will have human reactions. So, yeah, 2:01:41.160 --> 2:01:43.560 I'm not saying I'm not adding anything to what you're saying. 2:01:43.600 --> 2:01:47.000 I'm just emphasizing here because I'm, you know, as outraged 2:01:47.040 --> 2:01:47.280 as you. 2:01:48.040 --> 2:01:48.240 Yeah. 2:01:48.320 --> 2:01:51.000 Yeah, And like the thing is that it's it's sort 2:01:51.000 --> 2:01:53.800 of the same principle in a sense of the same 2:01:53.880 --> 2:01:56.320 understanding that also led me to like for years now, 2:01:56.360 --> 2:01:59.240 to oppose the Ionian regime. It's the same understanding. It's 2:01:59.240 --> 2:02:02.400 not just that their brutality towards people within Iran of course, 2:02:02.400 --> 2:02:05.720 but they have. They have engaged in plist campaigns in 2:02:06.000 --> 2:02:09.080 Cim most notably, but also in Iraq and in Lebanon. 2:02:09.200 --> 2:02:10.880 Is like a different kind of thing, but there is 2:02:10.920 --> 2:02:14.440 that that component of it as well that hasn't contributed 2:02:14.440 --> 2:02:17.200 to make them like a better opponent of the Israelis 2:02:17.240 --> 2:02:17.839 or the Americans. 2:02:17.840 --> 2:02:21.280 If anything, it's made them weaker. One of the many problems. 2:02:21.320 --> 2:02:22.920 But I think the biggest one now is that this 2:02:23.200 --> 2:02:27.480 is and this is completely regardless of the ethics of 2:02:27.520 --> 2:02:30.200 the Iranian regime, which I've opposed for several years as well. 2:02:30.240 --> 2:02:32.560 This has nothing to do with supporting them or excusing 2:02:32.600 --> 2:02:36.760 their actions or anything like that, but just understanding why 2:02:37.320 --> 2:02:40.480 the Israelites are acting. Specifically, the Israelis are acting the 2:02:40.520 --> 2:02:42.680 way they have been acting for years now. 2:02:42.920 --> 2:02:43.839 There is this tendency. 2:02:43.840 --> 2:02:45.240 I mean, if you go on the Garden for example, 2:02:45.280 --> 2:02:46.920 now you see like crisis in the Middle East, and 2:02:47.040 --> 2:02:48.240 you can click on it, and then you just go 2:02:48.360 --> 2:02:50.800 book years and years and years as though it's the 2:02:50.840 --> 2:02:53.080 same thing as like you know, it's just displays that 2:02:53.120 --> 2:02:56.080 has crises, and it's sort of like you expect that 2:02:56.120 --> 2:02:59.000 this will happen. But as I think people know a 2:02:59.000 --> 2:03:03.280 bit better. Now the global component of it. This also 2:03:03.360 --> 2:03:06.720 has a global ramification. Even the technologies that are being 2:03:06.840 --> 2:03:08.880 pioneered if you want, by the Israelis and also by 2:03:08.920 --> 2:03:12.120 the Americans to some extent in places like Gaza, then 2:03:12.160 --> 2:03:15.320 get exported elsewhere. Palenteer is now going to be a 2:03:15.360 --> 2:03:17.720 penalty AI is now going to be a core component 2:03:18.080 --> 2:03:21.080 of the US military. These are things that are like 2:03:21.400 --> 2:03:24.640 because that's what I mean by like. Lebanon is deceptively small. 2:03:25.080 --> 2:03:28.320 It's like, it's not important geopolitically for the most part. 2:03:28.640 --> 2:03:30.920 But because that is the case, and of course Gaza 2:03:30.920 --> 2:03:34.280 as well, then it allows it has allowed the Israelis 2:03:34.320 --> 2:03:37.560 to get away with a lot of things. So maybe 2:03:37.560 --> 2:03:40.200 this is, I don't know, a cliched or I don't know, 2:03:40.200 --> 2:03:43.520 it's a meaningless thing to repeat. But the problem really 2:03:43.560 --> 2:03:46.400 goes back to impunity. The problem really goes back to 2:03:46.440 --> 2:03:49.680 the fact that nothing the Israelis have ever done, at 2:03:49.800 --> 2:03:53.120 least in the past several decades, has had any consequences 2:03:53.200 --> 2:03:55.440 to them, to what they do to the region and 2:03:55.480 --> 2:03:59.440 so on. And this is absolutely a biparthisan problem in America. 2:03:59.680 --> 2:04:02.400 None of this would be possible without the Americans. There's 2:04:02.440 --> 2:04:04.120 a very good argument to be made that if we're 2:04:04.160 --> 2:04:06.760 talking about the iscaely occupation of Palestine, we need to 2:04:06.760 --> 2:04:10.120 say the American is raely occupation of Palestine, the bombing 2:04:10.160 --> 2:04:12.560 of Lebanon, we need to say. It's also none of 2:04:12.560 --> 2:04:17.520 this would be physically possible, diplomatically possible, economically possible were 2:04:17.560 --> 2:04:20.680 it not for this unconditional support that the Israelis have 2:04:20.760 --> 2:04:23.880 gotten from the Americans for decades and decades now. If 2:04:23.880 --> 2:04:28.440 Biden had done anything about Israel's genocide and Gaza, really 2:04:28.480 --> 2:04:30.880 almost anything, I don't think we would be aware we 2:04:30.920 --> 2:04:33.400 are today. And so no, this is not a Trump problem. 2:04:33.400 --> 2:04:36.920 It's just that Trump being Trump is making it much worse. 2:04:37.120 --> 2:04:40.640 Speeding it up, is just exploding everything even faster, speeding 2:04:40.640 --> 2:04:43.280 it up and adding new dimensions to it, and so 2:04:43.280 --> 2:04:45.480 on and so forth. But the problem goes back to 2:04:45.560 --> 2:04:48.960 American imperialist hubris, a lot of people not knowing what 2:04:48.960 --> 2:04:51.120 they're even doing in the region, and the consequences of 2:04:51.160 --> 2:04:53.160 it all. So, yeah, I'm not someone who tends to 2:04:53.200 --> 2:04:56.760 be very pessimistic necessarily and stuff like that, but there's 2:04:56.840 --> 2:05:00.320 a lot of ways in which what is currently happening 2:05:00.400 --> 2:05:02.320 in terms of the iscaily and American war on Iran, 2:05:02.440 --> 2:05:05.440 and it's Gaily war Lebanon and so on that can 2:05:05.640 --> 2:05:10.640 just go to different levels that I generally, and I'm 2:05:10.680 --> 2:05:12.880 someone who has report even reported on conflicts for a 2:05:12.920 --> 2:05:17.040 long time now, generally struggle to even imagine. And I 2:05:17.040 --> 2:05:18.880 don't want to stand like I'm just panicking or anything 2:05:18.880 --> 2:05:20.520 like that, or d is there is a component of that, 2:05:21.120 --> 2:05:25.320 but it is a real problem that if Israel is 2:05:25.400 --> 2:05:29.960 not stopped in any way at this point, this will 2:05:29.960 --> 2:05:32.480 continue and there's no objective reason to believe otherwise. 2:05:33.720 --> 2:05:39.880 Yeah, extremely alarming to say the least. But thank you 2:05:39.920 --> 2:05:43.200 Elia so much for making the time to explain this. 2:05:43.560 --> 2:05:45.640 I'll link to the fire these times in the show notes. 2:05:45.680 --> 2:05:49.640 Ilia has a excellent podcast and it's not Lebanon specific. 2:05:49.920 --> 2:05:53.200 It's kind of an internationalist perspective. For disclosure, I've been 2:05:53.200 --> 2:05:58.440 on it many times. I've produced some episodes, so yeah, 2:05:58.480 --> 2:06:01.000 there's not a bias. But it really is a good, 2:06:01.200 --> 2:06:03.520 very good podcast. In any case, Thank you so much, Ylia, 2:06:03.720 --> 2:06:06.640 and hopefully we'll have you on on better times. 2:06:07.160 --> 2:06:08.520 Thanks, thank thank thank you having me. 2:06:24.920 --> 2:06:28.440 Welcome to it could happen here podcasts where a bunch 2:06:28.480 --> 2:06:32.240 of incredibly convoluted and very silly financial instruments to shore 2:06:32.320 --> 2:06:34.880 the entire world economy. I am your host, Mia Wong, 2:06:35.440 --> 2:06:38.520 and with me today is someone who does not spend 2:06:38.600 --> 2:06:42.040 all of her time deep in the bowels of arcane 2:06:42.680 --> 2:06:46.280 bullshit written by different Federal Reserve boards. And that is 2:06:46.360 --> 2:06:50.520 Maldy Conger, who is the host of the absolutely delightful 2:06:50.560 --> 2:06:53.440 I mean, okay, I guess this is a who is 2:06:53.520 --> 2:06:59.840 really winning here kind of christion? In terms of things, research. 2:06:59.720 --> 2:07:02.800 Spent a lot of time reading stuff written by Federal 2:07:02.880 --> 2:07:05.160 Reserve guys. I read a lot of stuff written by 2:07:05.240 --> 2:07:08.560 guys who want to kill the Federal Reserve guys. Yeah, 2:07:09.680 --> 2:07:11.640 you know what, I still don't know what the Federal 2:07:11.640 --> 2:07:13.240 Reserve is, and I'm not gonna find out. 2:07:14.360 --> 2:07:18.680 You know, I don't actually think knowing what the Federal 2:07:18.720 --> 2:07:20.320 Reserve is somehow. 2:07:19.960 --> 2:07:20.800 It doesn't change anything. 2:07:20.840 --> 2:07:23.280 And I don't think it's actually relevant to this app 2:07:23.320 --> 2:07:25.640 I mean it kind of. It's obviously it's relevant to everything. 2:07:25.640 --> 2:07:29.240 But means to say is the reason I'm here is 2:07:29.280 --> 2:07:31.280 because I don't know what the economy is, and at 2:07:31.320 --> 2:07:33.080 this point I'm afraid to find out. 2:07:33.680 --> 2:07:35.920 And unfortunately, your worst fears are happening. 2:07:36.200 --> 2:07:38.720 Don't worry. By the end of this I will not understand. 2:07:39.400 --> 2:07:43.120 I am going to attempt to explain the economy, and 2:07:43.160 --> 2:07:48.440 by by the economy, I mean shadow banking. Yeah. Also, 2:07:48.680 --> 2:07:50.360 before before I go into this, though, you should, you 2:07:50.360 --> 2:07:53.120 should listen to Weird Little Guys. It is. It's it's 2:07:53.160 --> 2:07:56.160 really good. I like it. All my friends really like it. 2:07:56.480 --> 2:08:02.560 Thank you. Yeah, it's somehow a come a kind of 2:08:02.640 --> 2:08:10.000 relaxing show about neo Nazis. So that's got very chill vibes. 2:08:10.080 --> 2:08:12.360 Yeah for a show about guys who are trying to 2:08:12.400 --> 2:08:13.600 like blow up school bus ypes. 2:08:13.920 --> 2:08:18.000 Yep. So all right, you know I'm reading this. I'm 2:08:18.000 --> 2:08:21.480 looking over this script miraculously this isn't Oh wait, hold on, 2:08:22.280 --> 2:08:23.960 I think I cut the part where people blow up 2:08:24.000 --> 2:08:26.800 school buses. There was legitimately a segment in here that 2:08:26.840 --> 2:08:29.280 I might put back in or someone blows up a 2:08:29.280 --> 2:08:29.840 school bus. 2:08:30.000 --> 2:08:32.240 But what a crossover event. 2:08:32.800 --> 2:08:35.720 Oh boy, oh boy, the Saudi is really good at 2:08:35.720 --> 2:08:40.200 that shit. It turns out. Okay, okay, but let let's 2:08:40.200 --> 2:08:42.720 get back to the topic at hand, which is what 2:08:42.880 --> 2:08:45.880 is shadow banking and why does it matter to all 2:08:45.920 --> 2:08:48.480 of us people who live in the normal, real world 2:08:48.560 --> 2:08:50.320 and not in fake finance world. 2:08:51.160 --> 2:08:53.000 Does it have anything to do with shadow wolves? 2:08:53.400 --> 2:08:59.879 Unfortunately? No, what about shadow facts? Sadly? Actually they're probably 2:09:00.120 --> 2:09:02.480 is a connection between the financing for the Lord of 2:09:02.480 --> 2:09:06.360 the Rings movies and shadow banking. I'm just too tired 2:09:06.680 --> 2:09:07.680 to work it right now. 2:09:08.240 --> 2:09:10.960 I've dragged us off track. If we haven't even gotten 2:09:11.000 --> 2:09:12.520 on track yet. What is shadow bank? 2:09:12.720 --> 2:09:15.120 Okay? So the good news, the good news this this 2:09:15.200 --> 2:09:17.520 is this is the first. It's not the last piece 2:09:17.520 --> 2:09:20.080 of good news. We're gonna get this episode. But come, 2:09:20.960 --> 2:09:24.760 the definition used by most non academics is actually not 2:09:25.320 --> 2:09:29.760 that bad. There's a pretty good It's very wishy washy 2:09:29.840 --> 2:09:32.640 because it's a congressional report and so it's specifically not 2:09:32.640 --> 2:09:34.960 supposed to be taking a stance in either direction on 2:09:35.040 --> 2:09:37.800 anything because it's it's the Congressional Review Office, and they're 2:09:37.800 --> 2:09:41.360 supposed to be neutral, et cetera, et cetera. Allegedly, Yeah, right, 2:09:41.440 --> 2:09:43.400 you know, and like obviously they're not, but like you know, 2:09:44.720 --> 2:09:48.520 it's like kind of fine congressional report on the subject. 2:09:49.000 --> 2:09:52.960 And they do the thing that almost everyone does, which 2:09:53.000 --> 2:09:56.680 is they go back to the definition created by the 2:09:56.680 --> 2:09:59.880 Financial Stability Board. And I'm just gonna I'm just gonna 2:10:00.080 --> 2:10:04.840 quote that because it's not that bad. Quote financial activities 2:10:04.880 --> 2:10:09.480 facilitated by institutions other than central banks, banks or public 2:10:09.520 --> 2:10:10.680 financial institutions. 2:10:11.720 --> 2:10:15.200 So it's banking that doesn't involve a bank canceled. I'm out, 2:10:15.320 --> 2:10:16.040 I'm out already. 2:10:16.320 --> 2:10:17.800 Yes, And they. 2:10:17.680 --> 2:10:19.520 Don't mean like me loaning you twenty. 2:10:19.280 --> 2:10:22.760 Dollars No, no, no, of course not. 2:10:23.160 --> 2:10:26.840 They just mean unregulated banking. Oh yeah, which you can't 2:10:26.920 --> 2:10:27.960 legally call banking. 2:10:28.640 --> 2:10:31.120 I mean, you actually can't legally call it banking. It's 2:10:31.240 --> 2:10:34.720 just things get weird really quickly. 2:10:34.800 --> 2:10:37.120 I mean, I'm not a bank understander, but I know, 2:10:37.120 --> 2:10:40.120 at least in Virginia, you can't incorporate a business that 2:10:40.200 --> 2:10:42.520 has the word bank in the title unless you are 2:10:42.600 --> 2:10:45.360 legally a bank, because that's like misleading. 2:10:45.520 --> 2:10:47.680 Yeah, I don't think they can legally call themselves a bank, 2:10:47.720 --> 2:10:50.200 but I guess you can call it banking activity that's 2:10:50.240 --> 2:10:51.400 stupid in a matter already. 2:10:51.720 --> 2:10:52.040 Yes. 2:10:52.320 --> 2:10:54.080 Oh, you're going to get so much more mad by 2:10:54.080 --> 2:10:57.480 the end of this. So the base definition is it's 2:10:57.520 --> 2:11:00.360 not that complicated, right, It's something that does banking stuff 2:11:00.360 --> 2:11:03.480 that is legally not a bank, you know, And so 2:11:03.600 --> 2:11:07.440 we could talk about what what kinds of things is this? Right, 2:11:08.000 --> 2:11:11.600 It's like private equity firms, it's hedge funds, it's venture 2:11:11.640 --> 2:11:12.720 capital firms. 2:11:13.240 --> 2:11:15.800 So it's like evil stuff that ruins the world for 2:11:15.840 --> 2:11:18.160 no reason except for like ten guys make money. 2:11:18.720 --> 2:11:21.120 Yeah, but it's also you know, pension funds, it's like 2:11:21.160 --> 2:11:25.520 insurance companies. It's sovereign wealth funds, business development companies, repo markets, 2:11:25.560 --> 2:11:30.400 broker dealers, special investment vehicles, securitization vehicles, money market mutual funds, 2:11:30.440 --> 2:11:32.600 assey backed commercial paper conduits. 2:11:33.000 --> 2:11:36.160 Hey thing, Bud, Most of those things you just said 2:11:36.200 --> 2:11:38.320 to me are fake and they make me upset. 2:11:38.880 --> 2:11:42.840 It's really bad. Sovereign wealth funds shop that's not that's 2:11:42.880 --> 2:11:43.160 not me. 2:11:44.960 --> 2:11:47.360 I still, you know all these all these things are 2:11:47.400 --> 2:11:50.400 just like different ways of saying like you're poor and 2:11:50.440 --> 2:11:51.200 you're gonna die. 2:11:51.360 --> 2:11:52.960 Yeah. I mean the funny thing is sovereign wealth fund 2:11:53.080 --> 2:11:56.000 is like kind of a less fake one in that 2:11:56.080 --> 2:11:59.240 it's like, hey, this is like sol fake. It's the well, 2:11:59.280 --> 2:12:01.520 It's like this is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has 2:12:01.600 --> 2:12:03.760 pooled all of the money it's gotten from its like 2:12:04.000 --> 2:12:07.320 horrific crimes and put them together into one giant thing, 2:12:07.360 --> 2:12:08.640 and that's a sovereign wealth fund. 2:12:09.120 --> 2:12:10.600 Oh so it's good, it's what you mean. 2:12:12.640 --> 2:12:15.360 No, I am a notable. There is, by the way, 2:12:15.400 --> 2:12:17.560 a camp of people who believe that sovereign wealth funds 2:12:17.560 --> 2:12:19.840 are like a socialist thing and that you could use 2:12:19.840 --> 2:12:20.800 them to do socialism. 2:12:20.840 --> 2:12:22.000 I'm gonna jump out the window. 2:12:22.080 --> 2:12:25.680 I think this is so stupid. Yeah, we haven't even 2:12:25.720 --> 2:12:29.200 gotten into the nightmare stuff. So remember I was talking 2:12:29.200 --> 2:12:33.480 about the Financial Stability Board definition in that congressional report 2:12:33.600 --> 2:12:35.320 right where it's like, okay, this is a bank that 2:12:35.360 --> 2:12:37.320 does non banking stuff or a non bank that does 2:12:37.360 --> 2:12:38.480 banking stuff. Sorry, oh, I. 2:12:38.400 --> 2:12:40.440 Guess we should say I guess we forgot to say 2:12:40.440 --> 2:12:43.040 at the top. The reason you're explaining shadow banking to 2:12:43.120 --> 2:12:45.760 me is because we saw an article last week that 2:12:46.520 --> 2:12:49.680 what those not banks were putting a stop on withdrawals 2:12:49.680 --> 2:12:52.840 from their not banks and I didn't know what that meant. 2:12:53.120 --> 2:12:57.560 Yeah, that's amazingly, this is so convoluted. We're not even 2:12:57.600 --> 2:12:59.160 gonna get to that this week, right, But like that 2:13:00.240 --> 2:13:02.920 why we're exciting, That's why, right, there's like, yeah, there's 2:13:02.920 --> 2:13:04.960 like there's like a mini bank run going on with 2:13:05.040 --> 2:13:08.840 these like shadow banks, no banks. Yeah, so we're gonna 2:13:08.840 --> 2:13:11.600 get into how that can happen and why. But but 2:13:11.640 --> 2:13:14.360 before we get there, we need to talk about all, right, 2:13:14.400 --> 2:13:16.640 to get a sense of the complexity of this. Right, 2:13:17.040 --> 2:13:20.880 the Congressional report, like the accepted terminology for this is 2:13:20.920 --> 2:13:22.160 not shadow banks, it. 2:13:22.120 --> 2:13:24.200 Is, right, that can't be their official name. That's not 2:13:24.240 --> 2:13:25.040 their government name. 2:13:25.680 --> 2:13:30.720 No, it's it's non bank financial intermediation. Now what the 2:13:30.800 --> 2:13:32.760 fuck is that? And this is where this episode goes 2:13:32.800 --> 2:13:36.160 completely off the rails because the components of what count 2:13:36.200 --> 2:13:39.720 as intermediation are so complicated. I Am not going to 2:13:39.760 --> 2:13:42.320 try to describe it until literally the end of this I. 2:13:42.320 --> 2:13:44.560 Mean, is it like what is Venmo officially? 2:13:44.720 --> 2:13:44.960 Really? 2:13:45.040 --> 2:13:48.480 Venmo's not a bank, but it provides like financial services. 2:13:49.040 --> 2:13:51.600 Actually, I why. 2:13:51.560 --> 2:13:53.600 Because it's because it's like a financial intermediary. 2:13:53.680 --> 2:13:57.000 Right, Yeah, it might technically be a non bank. I 2:13:57.320 --> 2:14:01.160 don't know what the regulatory structure is legally about. Yeah, 2:14:01.160 --> 2:14:03.120 I think I think that technically is. 2:14:03.120 --> 2:14:04.720 One score one for MOLI. 2:14:05.440 --> 2:14:08.680 Yeah. But okay, so this is this is gonna get 2:14:08.720 --> 2:14:13.200 really bad. Okay. So when I first started researching this episode, right, 2:14:13.240 --> 2:14:16.880 the first thing that I click on is is the 2:14:16.880 --> 2:14:20.720 Federal Reserves chart of how the shadow banking sector works 2:14:20.720 --> 2:14:23.000 compared to the normal banking sector. Molly, you have seen 2:14:23.040 --> 2:14:25.680 this because I posted it as a joke in our 2:14:25.680 --> 2:14:31.040 group chat. This chart. I have like a very very large, 2:14:31.240 --> 2:14:33.919 like it is like a big, normal ass size monitor 2:14:34.080 --> 2:14:36.440 that I like to do my work on. I had 2:14:36.440 --> 2:14:39.720 to zoom in to three hundred and eighty percent just 2:14:39.800 --> 2:14:43.360 to make out the letters that label the boxes on 2:14:43.400 --> 2:14:45.760 this chart. If you want to read it, you have 2:14:45.800 --> 2:14:48.200 to zoom into five hundred percent. 2:14:48.680 --> 2:14:50.200 That doesn't seem like a well made chart. 2:14:51.040 --> 2:14:53.480 No, here's the thing. It's actually really good. It's just 2:14:53.560 --> 2:14:58.240 this complicated. I learned later from a paper by Copenhagen 2:14:58.240 --> 2:15:02.480 Business School professor Odny Helga Daughter. We're gonna come back 2:15:02.520 --> 2:15:05.840 to Hellga Daughter's work a lot in this episode, but 2:15:06.240 --> 2:15:09.320 I learned from from her because she has also experienced 2:15:09.320 --> 2:15:12.200 seeing this same chart and going what the is this 2:15:12.240 --> 2:15:15.440 fuck ass chart? I found out that the Federal Reserve 2:15:15.560 --> 2:15:19.000 recommends that in order to have the diagram be legible, 2:15:19.440 --> 2:15:23.280 you're supposed to print this chart as a three foot 2:15:23.280 --> 2:15:24.839 by four foot poster. 2:15:25.400 --> 2:15:29.400 Oh that makes sense, like meeting style, but like we're 2:15:29.440 --> 2:15:29.960 on easel. 2:15:30.200 --> 2:15:32.600 Yeah, right, But like again, this is this is a 2:15:32.680 --> 2:15:36.520 diagram that he's just labeling the parts of the system 2:15:36.880 --> 2:15:39.560 and making and making like a line that shows how 2:15:39.600 --> 2:15:40.680 stuff moves through it. 2:15:40.920 --> 2:15:43.520 I guess I still don't know what we're talking about. 2:15:45.320 --> 2:15:47.320 Yeah, so this is what we're going to get into 2:15:47.440 --> 2:15:49.800 in a second. But first we have to talk about 2:15:49.840 --> 2:15:51.840 something even more bleak, which is that. 2:15:51.920 --> 2:15:52.040 Oh. 2:15:52.120 --> 2:15:54.840 Yeah, by the way, these like non banking bank things 2:15:54.840 --> 2:15:56.800 like these like all these like venture capital firms, all 2:15:56.800 --> 2:16:01.360 these hedge funds, all these fucking weird, ghoulish banks that 2:16:01.440 --> 2:16:04.760 are off banks. Yeah, they have twice as many assets 2:16:05.000 --> 2:16:08.920 than the regular banking system. Oh that doesn't seem good. Oh, 2:16:08.920 --> 2:16:11.640 it's about to get worse. It's about to get worse. Molley'. 2:16:11.800 --> 2:16:14.400 That's like saying I keep seventy percent of the food 2:16:14.400 --> 2:16:16.920 in my house outside on the porch, like it goes 2:16:16.960 --> 2:16:17.600 in the fridge. 2:16:17.640 --> 2:16:21.920 Oh, oh, it's so bad, it's so bad. So okay, 2:16:22.240 --> 2:16:24.040 there's a pretty good congressional report that I was talking 2:16:24.080 --> 2:16:28.400 about earlier that has this terrifying quote quote. As of 2:16:28.440 --> 2:16:32.600 twenty twenty three, the broad measured total financial assets and 2:16:32.720 --> 2:16:37.640 narrow measure assets at NBFISIS is the shadow banks reached 2:16:38.040 --> 2:16:43.000 eighty five point seven trillion dollars and twenty two point 2:16:43.040 --> 2:16:46.359 two trillion dollars, respectively in the United States. 2:16:46.520 --> 2:16:48.360 But that's more than our GDP. 2:16:48.920 --> 2:16:51.440 That's almost three times our GDP. 2:16:51.680 --> 2:16:55.119 So that's a fake amount of money. Yes, that's not real. 2:16:55.000 --> 2:16:58.840 At all, but it kind of is. Right. These compared 2:16:58.920 --> 2:17:02.160 to total financial assets of thirty one point one trillion 2:17:02.200 --> 2:17:06.080 dollars at banks in the same period. So again this 2:17:06.160 --> 2:17:09.080 is this is almost three times our GDP in assets 2:17:09.080 --> 2:17:13.240 that they manage or control. So where does the money live? 2:17:13.879 --> 2:17:21.000 In a whole bunch of unbelievably convoluted bullshit like combinations 2:17:21.040 --> 2:17:23.680 of like loans and real estate and stuff like that, 2:17:24.080 --> 2:17:25.000 not real money. 2:17:25.000 --> 2:17:27.920 So like, okay, imagine this is schoolhouse rock and instead 2:17:27.920 --> 2:17:30.760 of the singing bill, you're like a dollar bill, Like 2:17:30.920 --> 2:17:31.600 where are you? 2:17:33.080 --> 2:17:38.320 We are about to explain this where does the money live? Yeah? 2:17:38.360 --> 2:17:42.119 So okay, okay, we're we are about one huge paragraphs 2:17:42.120 --> 2:17:45.720 away from getting to this, or like one paragraph. Okay. 2:17:45.800 --> 2:17:47.920 So the other thing that's very important about this, and 2:17:47.959 --> 2:17:49.560 this is something Molly was kind of touching out to 2:17:49.560 --> 2:17:50.880 the beginning to get the appen So maybe I should 2:17:50.879 --> 2:17:53.360 have opened with this. Yeah, these people, these are the 2:17:53.360 --> 2:17:55.560 people who blew up the economy in two thousand and eight. 2:17:56.080 --> 2:17:58.119 Well, yeah, because they're making stuff up. 2:17:58.360 --> 2:18:01.480 Yeah, it's so, it's so bullshit, Molly, you're gonna get 2:18:01.480 --> 2:18:04.680 so mad if this is Calvin Ball, fuck you I win. Yeah, 2:18:04.720 --> 2:18:09.119 it literally is. It's nonsense. It's gibberish. They're doing fucking 2:18:09.200 --> 2:18:12.039 betting markets with the entire world economy. Oh yeah, we 2:18:12.040 --> 2:18:14.959 can all do that now. Yeah, it's fun. It's like 2:18:15.000 --> 2:18:17.360 we we now have the power to do the shit 2:18:17.480 --> 2:18:19.840 that destroyed the entire world economy in two thousand and eight. 2:18:20.360 --> 2:18:22.200 So that The thing about shadow banking, and the reason 2:18:22.200 --> 2:18:25.760 why it's complicated to explain, is that it's a catch 2:18:25.800 --> 2:18:29.240 all term for like a million types of institutions that 2:18:29.280 --> 2:18:33.080 do different things, Right, the commonality they have is that 2:18:33.120 --> 2:18:36.800 they're all not regulated by the banking regulations. 2:18:37.160 --> 2:18:37.240 Right. 2:18:37.280 --> 2:18:39.119 It's like, we found a way to do financial crime 2:18:39.120 --> 2:18:41.560 that's not illegal because they forgot to make this illegal. 2:18:41.840 --> 2:18:44.520 Yeah, and you know, but but the thing is it's 2:18:44.560 --> 2:18:48.760 so embedded into the system that, like the US debt 2:18:49.240 --> 2:18:54.480 working is dependent on the shadow banks buying it. Like 2:18:54.640 --> 2:18:56.600 I don't believe in that either. So I'm good. Oh 2:18:56.680 --> 2:18:59.200 it's so fake, Molly. I'm not even gonna attempt to 2:18:59.280 --> 2:19:01.880 explain what an o night repo purchases to you, because 2:19:02.360 --> 2:19:05.080 it's the fakest thing I've ever seen, where they they 2:19:05.080 --> 2:19:07.560 make one trillion dollars exist overnight and then it stops 2:19:07.600 --> 2:19:09.560 existing at the end of the night. It's incredible. 2:19:10.040 --> 2:19:11.920 I love how much of the economy is based on 2:19:11.959 --> 2:19:14.520 guys just imagining stuff and agreeing on the thing they 2:19:14.600 --> 2:19:17.320 imagined and then trading their imaginary tokens like this is 2:19:17.320 --> 2:19:18.120 fucking POGs. 2:19:18.160 --> 2:19:21.480 Grow up, yep, this is this is this is unfortunately, 2:19:21.959 --> 2:19:24.440 what our entire world is based on. It's so fun. 2:19:25.720 --> 2:19:30.119 Oh god, Okay, So what is actually shadow banking? I've 2:19:30.120 --> 2:19:33.000 given you like the broadest definition possible, which is like 2:19:33.240 --> 2:19:35.560 it again, it's the it's doing bank ship without being 2:19:35.560 --> 2:19:38.480 a bank. But let's go back to the beginning of 2:19:38.600 --> 2:19:42.600 the term, which is where most people tend to start 2:19:42.720 --> 2:19:46.119 or get to eventually. This is from an IMF paper quote. 2:19:46.400 --> 2:19:49.840 The term shadow bank was coined by economist Paul McCauley 2:19:49.840 --> 2:19:52.440 at a two thousand and seven speech at the Annual 2:19:52.480 --> 2:19:56.000 Financial Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank 2:19:56.000 --> 2:20:02.440 in jacksonvill Wyoming. And basically it's institutions that borrow money 2:20:02.480 --> 2:20:05.560 in the short term through money markets to finance long 2:20:05.640 --> 2:20:09.280 term loans. But they aren't banks, so they can't go 2:20:09.360 --> 2:20:13.000 through the FED. They're financing loans with other loans. Yeah, 2:20:13.000 --> 2:20:16.120 we're gonna so from a not bank. Yeah, but the 2:20:16.160 --> 2:20:17.920 big loan is from a real bank, and then the 2:20:17.959 --> 2:20:20.640 little loan is from a fake bank. Give me, none 2:20:20.680 --> 2:20:22.680 of the money is real. Hold on, hold on, Okay, 2:20:22.720 --> 2:20:25.840 we're going to get there. We're going to explain this 2:20:25.879 --> 2:20:28.120 in terms of burgers. It's going to be Okay, I 2:20:28.200 --> 2:20:30.440 believe in us perfect, perfect, Yes. But the other thing 2:20:30.520 --> 2:20:33.920 he describes is, and this is from Helga daughter quote 2:20:34.080 --> 2:20:36.720 in the speech, she describes shadow banking as the whole 2:20:36.800 --> 2:20:41.720 alphabet soup of leveraged up investment conduits, vehicles, and structures. 2:20:41.879 --> 2:20:44.880 So what he's talking about specifically is these are the 2:20:44.920 --> 2:20:46.680 guys who blew up the economy two does eight like 2:20:46.720 --> 2:20:49.400 these specifically, this is what he's talking about, right, These 2:20:49.400 --> 2:20:52.160 are the people who took a mortgage and then did 2:20:52.200 --> 2:20:54.120 a bunch of bullshit to it and what's called a 2:20:54.120 --> 2:20:57.280 securitization chain. They did a bunch of bullshit to it, 2:20:57.320 --> 2:20:59.320 so you could give the loan to someone else, you 2:20:59.320 --> 2:21:01.600 could sell someone else, and this blew up the entire 2:21:01.640 --> 2:21:03.720 world economy. That's what she's talking about. He's talking about 2:21:03.720 --> 2:21:06.760 the banks that are not banks, the shadow banks that 2:21:06.879 --> 2:21:10.680 did all of this bullshit to turn like someone's mortgage 2:21:10.720 --> 2:21:12.920 into a fucking thing you could bet on. 2:21:13.480 --> 2:21:19.400 So selling debt is like selling the idea of future money. Yeah, 2:21:19.440 --> 2:21:22.200 and then sometimes that future money doesn't come. Yeah, so 2:21:22.240 --> 2:21:23.120 it doesn't exist. 2:21:23.400 --> 2:21:26.000 So so okay, I will say, you do not need 2:21:26.040 --> 2:21:28.200 to understand this yet, because we haven't. We still have 2:21:28.240 --> 2:21:29.359 not already the actual explanation. 2:21:29.480 --> 2:21:30.320 I'm never going to. 2:21:30.680 --> 2:21:32.959 I believe in us. We can do this. It's not 2:21:33.080 --> 2:21:36.360 that bad, okay. I'm not torturing your on purpose. I'm 2:21:36.400 --> 2:21:40.560 just no, it's okay, I believe in you. So I 2:21:40.879 --> 2:21:43.400 want to mention that I'm very indebted here to the 2:21:43.440 --> 2:21:47.400 paper I mentioned earlier from Copenhagen Business School professor Adny 2:21:47.879 --> 2:21:50.600 Helga Daughter, who wrote of She wrote a very good 2:21:50.879 --> 2:21:53.879 fight explanation of this in her Review of International Political 2:21:53.920 --> 2:21:57.560 Economy article called Banking upside Down The Implicit Politics of 2:21:57.560 --> 2:22:01.720 Shadow Banking expertise, but Okay, as you can tell by 2:22:01.720 --> 2:22:05.720 the fact that it's called banking upside down, the implicit 2:22:05.760 --> 2:22:08.879 politics of shadow banking expertise this has been when she's 2:22:08.879 --> 2:22:12.920 simplifying it. She's simplifying it from like economists down to 2:22:13.120 --> 2:22:16.400 like a political scientist or an anthropologist can understand this. 2:22:17.080 --> 2:22:19.879 I am about to attempt to simplify this down to 2:22:20.840 --> 2:22:24.440 a regular person. Can I understand this? So I'm drawing 2:22:24.440 --> 2:22:26.560 on a lot of her stuff for the first part 2:22:26.560 --> 2:22:30.760 of this explanation, but I am I've turned it into burgers. 2:22:31.040 --> 2:22:33.720 So I'll do my best. I'm being very brave. 2:22:34.080 --> 2:22:34.320 Okay. 2:22:34.360 --> 2:22:37.400 So a shadow bank, right, it's something that does banking shit. 2:22:37.520 --> 2:22:39.000 That's not a bank. So what do I mean by 2:22:39.120 --> 2:22:39.760 banking shit? 2:22:40.440 --> 2:22:42.720 That was my next question. Yes, I think we need 2:22:42.760 --> 2:22:44.360 to start with what is a bank? 2:22:44.440 --> 2:22:46.640 Yes? So first, so okay, okay, and this is this 2:22:46.720 --> 2:22:50.080 is where we're starting here. What does a bank do? 2:22:50.720 --> 2:22:52.760 I put my money in it and they hold it 2:22:52.760 --> 2:22:53.000 for me? 2:22:53.280 --> 2:22:56.080 So no, actually, and this is the interesting part. 2:22:56.200 --> 2:22:59.000 No, they do stuff with it. Oh yeah, they're holding 2:22:59.040 --> 2:23:00.440 onto the promise of my money. 2:23:01.000 --> 2:23:01.560 Yeah. 2:23:01.600 --> 2:23:03.320 So okay, let's let's just let's just look at this 2:23:03.360 --> 2:23:06.080 for a second. So Okay, So regular people give them 2:23:06.080 --> 2:23:08.560 money to store in the bank. This is called a deposit. 2:23:09.280 --> 2:23:12.680 The bank takes your money and loans it out right 2:23:12.760 --> 2:23:16.160 and uses that to make more money. This is how 2:23:16.160 --> 2:23:18.680 it pays you interest, right, is that it's it's taking 2:23:18.760 --> 2:23:20.560 your money and it's loaning it out to other to 2:23:20.720 --> 2:23:23.000 other people, it's buying things with it. 2:23:23.160 --> 2:23:24.160 That part I understand. 2:23:24.280 --> 2:23:26.959 Yeah, And this is obviously a cartoon image. And I 2:23:27.000 --> 2:23:28.640 know there's gonna be econ people who are gonna be 2:23:28.680 --> 2:23:32.000 mad at me. Look you, if you understand, why are. 2:23:31.959 --> 2:23:34.000 They listening to this? If you already know what this means, 2:23:34.000 --> 2:23:38.680 go away. This isn't for you. I'm not humiliating myself 2:23:38.680 --> 2:23:40.200 for your entertainment, like like for. 2:23:40.200 --> 2:23:42.760 The political economy people here. When I say stuff that 2:23:42.840 --> 2:23:46.920 might that's like technically kind of fuzzy. It's for me 2:23:47.080 --> 2:23:50.320 the podcast idiot. Yeah, like you you understand this, Like 2:23:50.360 --> 2:23:52.320 I work at the level of Hamburgers here, so like 2:23:52.680 --> 2:23:56.600 we have to do some abstractions. So okay, the important 2:23:56.640 --> 2:23:59.760 thing for our purposes, right, is that there's two things here. Right, 2:23:59.800 --> 2:24:02.600 There's like the deposit to the money you give them, 2:24:02.680 --> 2:24:05.600 and then there's the loans, right, and these operates on 2:24:05.720 --> 2:24:09.160 different timelines. Right. You can take the deposit out at 2:24:09.200 --> 2:24:12.320 any time, least in theory, but they can't get the 2:24:12.360 --> 2:24:15.880 money from the loan back at any time right now. 2:24:16.120 --> 2:24:18.840 This is like one of the critical things of what 2:24:18.879 --> 2:24:23.120 a bank is is this timeline thing. Right. It turns 2:24:24.160 --> 2:24:26.560 your money, which you can take out at any time, 2:24:26.840 --> 2:24:30.440 into a different kind of thing, this loan, which can't 2:24:30.520 --> 2:24:33.400 be taken out immediately, right, and then they use that 2:24:33.480 --> 2:24:38.959 to make money. So this is called maturity transformation. This 2:24:39.040 --> 2:24:41.840 is a very simple concept they have made very complicated. 2:24:42.320 --> 2:24:44.520 This is one of the core aspects of that definition 2:24:44.520 --> 2:24:45.760 I was talking about earlier. This is one of the 2:24:45.800 --> 2:24:48.720 four things in it. But you now understand this. It's 2:24:48.720 --> 2:24:51.840 not that complicated. It's takes short term, make long term, 2:24:52.280 --> 2:24:54.600 and we'll get to doing the reverse in a second. 2:24:54.879 --> 2:24:57.680 Oh, I don't think it works the other way. 2:24:58.200 --> 2:25:00.879 It's gonna go so badly, really so badly. 2:25:00.920 --> 2:25:03.320 I don't know about bank, but just generally speaking, like 2:25:03.360 --> 2:25:06.520 in terms of time and like how like material reality works. 2:25:06.560 --> 2:25:08.000 I don't think it works the other way. 2:25:08.400 --> 2:25:11.959 It's it's not great. It's not great, Molly, it's not great. Okay, 2:25:12.000 --> 2:25:15.480 So okay, there is However, a problem here, right, which 2:25:15.520 --> 2:25:18.400 is what happens if everyone tries to get their short 2:25:18.520 --> 2:25:20.039 term money back at the same time. 2:25:20.480 --> 2:25:23.680 I only can't, yeah, right, because you have deposit insurance. 2:25:23.920 --> 2:25:27.959 Yeah right, because the banks aren't holding short term cash. 2:25:28.000 --> 2:25:31.160 What they're holding is long term loans. And those loans 2:25:31.680 --> 2:25:36.440 like you can't pay someone alone. Well okay, actually, this 2:25:36.640 --> 2:25:38.480 entire the crux of this episode is they faced that 2:25:38.520 --> 2:25:41.039 they did do that. Yeah, yes, and it blew up 2:25:41.040 --> 2:25:41.880 the entire world to columy. 2:25:41.920 --> 2:25:44.480 But if but if I wanted forty thousand dollars out 2:25:44.480 --> 2:25:45.960 of my if I had a checking out it was 2:25:46.000 --> 2:25:47.840 forty thousand dollars in it. Yeah, and they gave me 2:25:47.959 --> 2:25:50.080 my neighbor's mortgage as a prompt Like that. 2:25:50.080 --> 2:25:51.440 Would have worked for me, That would have worked for 2:25:51.879 --> 2:25:54.360 no fuck that, No no, no, no. You need you need, 2:25:54.440 --> 2:25:56.600 you need, you need something that can buy a burger, 2:25:56.840 --> 2:26:00.880 and they're not giving you that. So okay, this is 2:26:01.200 --> 2:26:03.120 very very bad. If people try to do this, it 2:26:03.200 --> 2:26:06.360 is called a bank run. It is not good. It's bad. Yeah, 2:26:06.400 --> 2:26:09.480 And so this this blew up the entire world economy 2:26:09.640 --> 2:26:13.879 so many goddamn times that eventually we got financial regulation 2:26:14.640 --> 2:26:18.480 now this. This regulation requires banks to have money that 2:26:18.600 --> 2:26:22.440 is like actual cash they can hand you like right now, 2:26:22.879 --> 2:26:25.480 on hand at all times, and the government gets to 2:26:25.760 --> 2:26:27.960 and this is that's a little bit simification, but like yeah, 2:26:28.000 --> 2:26:28.600 that's how. 2:26:28.520 --> 2:26:30.640 It works, right, Like, and it's insured by the government. 2:26:31.000 --> 2:26:32.800 Yeah, I think the government will give you your money back 2:26:32.840 --> 2:26:34.680 if if the bank goes under up to like a 2:26:34.720 --> 2:26:39.240 certain amount of dollars ensured. Yep, this is this this 2:26:39.360 --> 2:26:41.240 that's that's what that means, right, the government will give 2:26:41.280 --> 2:26:44.560 you your money back. But also there's a there's a 2:26:44.640 --> 2:26:47.040 trade off to this. So this is a massive benefit 2:26:47.080 --> 2:26:48.680 for the banks, right the fact the fact that if 2:26:48.720 --> 2:26:50.680 they go under, all of their assets will be repaid 2:26:50.680 --> 2:26:53.160 by the government. It's a it's a massive benefit for 2:26:53.200 --> 2:26:55.240 them because it means that putting your money in the 2:26:55.280 --> 2:26:56.000 bank is like safe. 2:26:56.080 --> 2:26:58.320 Yeah, I love that for me, right, Yeah. 2:26:58.080 --> 2:27:01.400 It's good. Now. The cost to the banks is that 2:27:01.480 --> 2:27:03.600 the Feds get to see their balance sheet, right, the 2:27:03.640 --> 2:27:05.680 Feds get to see what they're doing with their fucking money, 2:27:05.680 --> 2:27:08.320 and they get to make sure that these banks aren't 2:27:08.360 --> 2:27:13.080 doing insane shit. Okay, that makes sense because they're insurance. Yeah, 2:27:13.120 --> 2:27:16.640 and that like they're not doing like unbelievably risky, awful shit, 2:27:16.920 --> 2:27:19.000 and also that they're actually holding enough money to be 2:27:19.000 --> 2:27:20.400 able to pay people out right. 2:27:20.480 --> 2:27:22.680 Okay, so far, so good, I understand bank. 2:27:23.480 --> 2:27:29.280 Yeah. Now, shadow banking boldly asked the question, Okay, but 2:27:29.280 --> 2:27:32.800 what if you did all of the banking backwards, no 2:27:32.840 --> 2:27:36.920 one had access to the books, and the governments will 2:27:36.920 --> 2:27:40.119 only pay you back if the entire world economy looks 2:27:40.120 --> 2:27:42.320 like it's going to die. I feel like at that. 2:27:42.320 --> 2:27:45.240 Point the government should just just step back. 2:27:45.120 --> 2:27:49.320 And here's the thing. Here's the thing, right I I 2:27:49.320 --> 2:27:51.600 I yeah, Like I'm so down with this, Like yeah, 2:27:51.640 --> 2:27:53.600 I don't know, fuck it, Like every single one of 2:27:53.600 --> 2:27:55.960 your motherfuckers is gonna pay this off by working as 2:27:55.959 --> 2:27:59.080 a barista for thirty years, like fuck you. But the 2:27:59.120 --> 2:28:01.760 government was like, nah, we want like we want capitalism 2:28:01.760 --> 2:28:02.360 to keep working. 2:28:02.520 --> 2:28:05.200 Make every hedge fund manager work at a waffle house. 2:28:05.320 --> 2:28:17.480 Yeah, fuck them. 2:28:17.560 --> 2:28:19.560 Okay, I'm gonna say something and then I'm gonna make 2:28:19.560 --> 2:28:23.720 a disclaim. So the kind of shadow banks that did 2:28:23.760 --> 2:28:27.680 two thousand and eight work in the opposite direction. They 2:28:27.760 --> 2:28:31.160 start with debt, they take that debt, and they turn 2:28:31.240 --> 2:28:34.840 that debt into like cash, right. 2:28:35.400 --> 2:28:39.360 Can I do that No, does that work for me 2:28:39.440 --> 2:28:40.200 at my hed No? 2:28:41.000 --> 2:28:43.200 So okay, And I also want to mention there's a 2:28:43.200 --> 2:28:45.240 bunch of other kinds of shadow banks. The kind of 2:28:45.280 --> 2:28:48.240 shadow bank that's going under right now is not really this. 2:28:48.959 --> 2:28:51.600 The kind of shadow bank that's like exploding right now 2:28:51.680 --> 2:28:54.240 is a kind of shadow bank that's like what if 2:28:54.280 --> 2:28:58.120 a bank that wasn't a bank gave a completely unregulated 2:28:58.200 --> 2:29:02.640 loan with secret terms to a corporation, And that's the 2:29:02.640 --> 2:29:05.640 one that's going under right now. But for a long 2:29:05.720 --> 2:29:07.520 long time, the kind of shadow bank that was really 2:29:07.520 --> 2:29:10.040 important to the global economy, and this is still like 2:29:10.120 --> 2:29:13.480 a massive portion of how all of the economic system works, 2:29:14.000 --> 2:29:16.960 is these ones where you're trying to take debt and 2:29:17.040 --> 2:29:20.959 turn it into something you can trade for cash. So, okay, 2:29:21.240 --> 2:29:23.959 you take debt, right, you start off with a mortgage. Okay, 2:29:24.120 --> 2:29:27.320 so these mortgages pay out over the extremely long term, right, 2:29:27.720 --> 2:29:30.240 But you want to be able to trade this mortgage 2:29:30.240 --> 2:29:34.200 for cash, right, And this is a process called securitization. 2:29:35.120 --> 2:29:37.440 Turning this mortgage into something you can sell for cash 2:29:37.520 --> 2:29:41.840 is making it into what's called a security. So now 2:29:41.959 --> 2:29:45.200 what happens right when is packaged into a security when 2:29:45.200 --> 2:29:47.960 there's a securitization process, and then like the regular bank, 2:29:48.160 --> 2:29:51.039 the regular bank sends the mortgage to the shadow bank, 2:29:51.280 --> 2:29:55.199 and the shadow bank like does like stuff and turns 2:29:55.240 --> 2:29:58.120 it into a security. And now what this means is 2:29:58.160 --> 2:30:00.480 that instead of you, who paid the more gage, owing 2:30:00.520 --> 2:30:02.879 money to the bank, you own it to the shadow 2:30:02.920 --> 2:30:05.200 bank or whoever the fuck the shadow bank sells it to. 2:30:05.360 --> 2:30:09.000 Right, Okay, so the real bank is involved, The real 2:30:09.000 --> 2:30:09.920 bank is involved. 2:30:10.040 --> 2:30:12.160 Yes, oh yes, the real bank is making so much 2:30:12.160 --> 2:30:14.160 money off of this. Is this is why two thousand 2:30:14.200 --> 2:30:14.760 and eight happened. 2:30:15.000 --> 2:30:17.480 Oh because Wells Fargo did this with everybody's mortgage. 2:30:17.680 --> 2:30:18.879 Oh yeah, oh yeah, okay. 2:30:18.680 --> 2:30:20.360 Because I couldn't figure out because you said this is 2:30:20.400 --> 2:30:21.600 a two thousand names and I was like, I thought, 2:30:21.640 --> 2:30:23.960 Wells Fargo did that. That's a real bank. Oh, the 2:30:24.080 --> 2:30:25.640 real bank was shadow banking. 2:30:25.800 --> 2:30:29.480 The real bank figured out a way to sell their mortgages. 2:30:30.120 --> 2:30:32.600 And it's gonna get much worse as we go through this. 2:30:33.120 --> 2:30:35.840 But that's what causes this, right, is like turning is 2:30:35.959 --> 2:30:40.360 turning these mortgages into these like securities and like these 2:30:40.400 --> 2:30:44.520 like collateralized debt obligations and these like special packaged bullshit 2:30:44.560 --> 2:30:46.640 that you could sell to someone. So the way I 2:30:46.680 --> 2:30:49.240 would describe this is it's like, do you know how 2:30:49.320 --> 2:30:54.240 a bond works? Honestly, Mia, I do not. Okay, we 2:30:54.360 --> 2:30:56.920 let's let's do this. We can we can do this. Okay. 2:30:57.000 --> 2:30:59.640 So the kind of bond that you are normally likely 2:30:59.720 --> 2:31:02.760 to in character is a government bond. Yeah, okay, So 2:31:02.879 --> 2:31:05.840 you you pay the government money to buy the bond, 2:31:06.840 --> 2:31:08.960 and what the bond says is at a certain point 2:31:09.000 --> 2:31:11.800 in time, you hand it back to the government and 2:31:11.879 --> 2:31:12.920 they pay you more money. 2:31:13.040 --> 2:31:14.280 Right, It's like a promise for later. 2:31:14.680 --> 2:31:18.080 Yeah. Right, So it's it's basically a loan, but it's 2:31:18.120 --> 2:31:21.720 a loan in a form where like the government's technically 2:31:21.800 --> 2:31:24.960 like selling it. And and then the other thing about bonds, 2:31:25.040 --> 2:31:27.800 right is if you hand the bond to someone else, 2:31:28.640 --> 2:31:30.240 well okay, I mean this is technically bear bonds, but 2:31:30.280 --> 2:31:33.400 like you can you can then give the bond to 2:31:33.560 --> 2:31:36.240 someone else, and now if they give it back to 2:31:36.280 --> 2:31:38.120 the government, they get the money in like ten years, 2:31:38.160 --> 2:31:40.200 they get the money, right, right, Okay, I get that. 2:31:40.600 --> 2:31:42.440 And you can sell these things, and this is what 2:31:42.560 --> 2:31:44.920 these people are doing with mortgages. 2:31:46.080 --> 2:31:48.640 That's not as like secured as like a government bond, 2:31:48.680 --> 2:31:50.320 because if I had one hundred dollars government, like if 2:31:50.320 --> 2:31:52.600 I have one hundred dollar bearers bond, I know for 2:31:52.760 --> 2:31:54.720 a fact on the date on the bond, it's going 2:31:54.760 --> 2:31:55.240 to be worth. 2:31:55.080 --> 2:31:57.320 One hundred dollars. Yeah, they're gonna pay out right. 2:31:57.640 --> 2:32:01.720 But if it's mortgage, the government's go pay it. But 2:32:01.840 --> 2:32:05.080 like the mortgage, the property has the work. That's not Yep, 2:32:05.160 --> 2:32:05.760 that's not real. 2:32:05.879 --> 2:32:08.280 That's not money. Nope, yep, that's like that's a that's 2:32:08.320 --> 2:32:10.760 a promise. But like my hand, it's behind my back. Yeah, 2:32:10.879 --> 2:32:14.000 it's it's a shit show. And this whole process is 2:32:14.240 --> 2:32:15.959 the largest sort of I'm not sure if it's actually 2:32:16.000 --> 2:32:18.880 the largest that I would need to actually get I've 2:32:18.920 --> 2:32:22.040 never I haven't seen in death breakdown sectorially. 2:32:21.640 --> 2:32:23.360 But like, none of this is real. You could just 2:32:23.360 --> 2:32:24.160 say whatever. 2:32:24.959 --> 2:32:26.520 This this is one of the most important kind of 2:32:26.560 --> 2:32:30.440 shadow banks because in order to turn this mortgage into 2:32:30.520 --> 2:32:33.040 security the moment you do that, you do this by 2:32:33.160 --> 2:32:35.879 creating what's called a special purpose vehicle, or someone else 2:32:35.959 --> 2:32:38.720 creates one. It's called a special purpose vehicle. Yeah, it's 2:32:38.840 --> 2:32:40.160 it's a nightmare. It's a nightmare. 2:32:40.760 --> 2:32:42.920 I'm gonna put this mortgage on a roller coaster. 2:32:43.320 --> 2:32:46.760 Yeah, it's fucking ridiculous. Right, it's a special purpose vehicle, 2:32:47.080 --> 2:32:49.680 is it does a loopy loop. But the moment you 2:32:49.760 --> 2:32:51.680 create one of these, the moment you create one of 2:32:51.760 --> 2:32:55.840 these like security mortgages, right, that's a shadow bank. You've 2:32:55.840 --> 2:32:56.879 created a shadow bank. 2:32:56.879 --> 2:32:59.000 Right, because that's not real banking. That's shadow bank. 2:32:59.240 --> 2:32:59.440 Yep. 2:32:59.720 --> 2:33:01.840 Because because you're creating another entity that is not a 2:33:01.920 --> 2:33:03.840 bank that's doing the banking stuff. 2:33:04.160 --> 2:33:06.080 I thought that the banking and the shadow banking were 2:33:06.120 --> 2:33:09.400 like separate things, right, because it's shadow like it's like, oh, 2:33:09.400 --> 2:33:09.760 they're doing. 2:33:09.760 --> 2:33:13.080 Non things, they're all in all. 2:33:13.280 --> 2:33:17.000 If the bank is the shadow banking, I would I'm stupid, 2:33:17.080 --> 2:33:17.840 but I would call. 2:33:17.800 --> 2:33:20.560 That a crime. This is this is another thing that 2:33:20.640 --> 2:33:22.200 costs two thousand and eight because a bunch of what 2:33:22.320 --> 2:33:25.960 was happening. Isn't that a crime? Because our country is 2:33:26.000 --> 2:33:28.240 run by the bourgeoisie, Molly that that's why it's not 2:33:28.320 --> 2:33:31.560 a crime. You're just telling me this for the first time. Yeah, 2:33:31.879 --> 2:33:32.360 it's bad. 2:33:32.640 --> 2:33:33.560 So so what what what? 2:33:33.640 --> 2:33:35.280 What happened? What happened in two thousand and eight. One 2:33:35.320 --> 2:33:37.320 of the things that happened, right, is so all of 2:33:37.360 --> 2:33:39.440 these regulators are supposed to be looking at the balance 2:33:39.480 --> 2:33:43.280 sheets of these companies, but they're hiding stuff off the books. Yeah, 2:33:43.320 --> 2:33:46.400 they were hiding these things in these like special purpose vehicles, 2:33:46.520 --> 2:33:48.000 like in these like shadow banks. 2:33:48.040 --> 2:33:50.320 They didn't open the trunks on the special purpose vehicles. 2:33:50.640 --> 2:33:52.400 Yeah, so no one could see the fucking dead bodies 2:33:52.400 --> 2:33:54.480 in the trunks of the vehicles because they weren't on 2:33:54.640 --> 2:33:56.680 the balance sheet that like the government had access to. 2:33:56.959 --> 2:33:58.480 What's the point of the balance sheet if you don't 2:33:58.480 --> 2:33:59.520 put the whole balance on it. 2:34:00.879 --> 2:34:04.480 I'm fucking I don't know. And this is like legitimately 2:34:04.720 --> 2:34:07.880 when you read the accounts of like why shadow making 2:34:07.920 --> 2:34:09.959 has exploded, by the way it's exploded since two thousand 2:34:09.959 --> 2:34:12.160 and eight, it's like way bigger exploded. 2:34:11.720 --> 2:34:14.800 Like in popularity, or like exploded as in like distrubularity. 2:34:15.040 --> 2:34:16.720 There's so much there's so much more of it. There's 2:34:16.760 --> 2:34:18.360 so much more of it because also, oh. 2:34:18.280 --> 2:34:20.760 Because it went so well, It went so well in 2:34:20.840 --> 2:34:21.720 two thousand and eight, and now. 2:34:21.640 --> 2:34:24.280 We're because here's the thing. After two thousand and eight, 2:34:24.320 --> 2:34:27.280 we got like a little tiny bit of banking regulation, 2:34:27.720 --> 2:34:30.760 and the banks lost their fucking minds, and so more 2:34:30.800 --> 2:34:34.119 and more money went into all of these unhidden shadow 2:34:34.160 --> 2:34:34.640 making things. 2:34:34.760 --> 2:34:36.720 Okay, but so like when a toddler has a tantrum, 2:34:36.800 --> 2:34:38.400 you don't give them a billion dollars. 2:34:38.879 --> 2:34:41.360 When the shadow banks went under, these things were not 2:34:41.440 --> 2:34:43.520 backed by the government. The government bailed them out anyways. Yeah, 2:34:43.520 --> 2:34:45.000 they didn't have to do that. Nope. 2:34:45.080 --> 2:34:47.280 So they really they learned their lesson. They really learned 2:34:47.320 --> 2:34:48.200 their lesson this time. 2:34:48.600 --> 2:34:50.960 Yeah, Like they bailed out these banks and they fucking 2:34:51.000 --> 2:34:53.800 sold you out, and like you know, like and one 2:34:53.840 --> 2:34:55.680 of the things that I think people have forgotten was 2:34:55.720 --> 2:34:58.520 there's this thing called robocalls durning the Obama administration. Right, 2:34:59.040 --> 2:35:02.320 part of how the financial recovery happened was that all 2:35:02.400 --> 2:35:06.640 these banks would like go to courthouses, right, and they 2:35:06.680 --> 2:35:08.840 would just repossess mortgages on Mass. 2:35:09.600 --> 2:35:09.760 Oh. 2:35:10.240 --> 2:35:12.200 And they had like a robot that was like signed it. 2:35:12.560 --> 2:35:15.200 It would just sign like a blank check sign off 2:35:15.240 --> 2:35:17.240 on all of these mortgages that were supposed to be underwater. 2:35:18.000 --> 2:35:20.840 And they would just steal people's houses, people who were 2:35:20.879 --> 2:35:22.760 on top of their payings, people who liked to know money. 2:35:22.959 --> 2:35:25.360 They would just take their houses. And this happened on 2:35:25.600 --> 2:35:28.640 Mass And this is like how the banks recovered was 2:35:28.680 --> 2:35:31.600 they stole everyone's houses and that's a crime, right, it 2:35:31.640 --> 2:35:34.360 should have been a crime, like it was illegal. It 2:35:34.440 --> 2:35:37.320 didn't matter though, because everything you're describing to me as 2:35:37.320 --> 2:35:39.640 a crime, it's so nightmarish. Well it's here's the thing, 2:35:39.879 --> 2:35:41.680 most of this of them describing is not a crime. 2:35:42.040 --> 2:35:45.120 This was actually a crime. But why isn't nobody in 2:35:45.280 --> 2:35:48.000 jail because Barack Obama went up in front of these 2:35:48.040 --> 2:35:50.240 people and said, I am the only thing standing between 2:35:50.280 --> 2:35:52.720 you and the guillotines. I'm pretty sure that's a direct quote. 2:35:52.840 --> 2:35:55.240 And why didn't he bring the guillotine with him? Because 2:35:55.480 --> 2:36:01.879 he wants the capital assistant to continue. I mean, I'm 2:36:01.959 --> 2:36:05.400 just upset. It's not good. Okay, So let's get you 2:36:05.440 --> 2:36:07.600 another question that you asked, which is why would you 2:36:07.720 --> 2:36:11.200 do this? Why would you do this to make money? Yes, 2:36:11.320 --> 2:36:14.560 but it's actually more complicated than that. Oh okay. So 2:36:14.720 --> 2:36:17.800 on the one hand, these assets, you know, a mortgage 2:36:17.879 --> 2:36:20.400 does make more money than just putting your money in 2:36:20.480 --> 2:36:23.440 the bank. Right, That's like the basis of banking is 2:36:23.520 --> 2:36:25.560 that they can use your money that's sitting in the 2:36:25.600 --> 2:36:27.400 bank and getting interested and then they make more money 2:36:27.440 --> 2:36:27.920 by spending it. 2:36:28.000 --> 2:36:28.360 Elsewhere. 2:36:28.680 --> 2:36:30.560 But so they're just doing this because they hate us, 2:36:30.800 --> 2:36:31.720 not just to make money. 2:36:31.959 --> 2:36:35.119 No, there is an actual explanation, there's a third reason. 2:36:35.720 --> 2:36:38.640 So then why would you ever have your money in 2:36:38.760 --> 2:36:41.640 a bank or like buy something like safe like government 2:36:41.680 --> 2:36:44.920 bonds you can sell really quickly, right, Why would you 2:36:45.080 --> 2:36:49.879 ever want that? And the reason why is something called liquidity? 2:36:50.520 --> 2:36:50.640 Right. 2:36:50.720 --> 2:36:52.360 You want to be able to spend the money, yes, 2:36:52.560 --> 2:36:54.760 rather than wait thirty years for it to get paid back. 2:36:55.000 --> 2:36:57.800 Yes. Liquidity is just how easy is it to turn 2:36:58.120 --> 2:36:59.400 whatever you own into cash? 2:36:59.600 --> 2:36:59.720 Right? 2:37:00.120 --> 2:37:00.720 Real money? 2:37:00.760 --> 2:37:02.520 Because most of it we're talking about is not money, 2:37:02.840 --> 2:37:04.000 it's the idea of money. 2:37:04.959 --> 2:37:08.880 Yes, so, so liquidity is literally it's the burger test? 2:37:08.959 --> 2:37:09.080 Right? 2:37:09.160 --> 2:37:12.800 Can you buy a burger with this? Can I eat this? Money? 2:37:12.959 --> 2:37:15.120 Is like the most liquid asset, right, because you can? 2:37:15.200 --> 2:37:16.640 You can? You can turn this into a burger? 2:37:16.800 --> 2:37:18.680 Right, So liquidity is the only part of this that's 2:37:18.680 --> 2:37:20.480 actually money. Everything else is not money. 2:37:21.000 --> 2:37:23.760 Yeah, well, liquidity is the measure of how money is it? 2:37:24.240 --> 2:37:27.279 Basically like, how easy is it to turn this into burger? 2:37:27.640 --> 2:37:30.800 Is this a special vehicle securitization? 2:37:31.280 --> 2:37:34.440 That's not real? Mia, No, it's fake as shit, right, 2:37:35.200 --> 2:37:38.039 this is not that complicated, right if you if it's 2:37:38.160 --> 2:37:39.760 like like you can you can buy a burger with 2:37:39.879 --> 2:37:42.560 ten dollars, yeah, right, that's liquid. Actually you kind of 2:37:42.600 --> 2:37:43.320 can't these days. 2:37:43.920 --> 2:37:44.120 I know. 2:37:45.040 --> 2:37:51.200 Look, I look, I imagine a world where you can 2:37:51.280 --> 2:37:55.240 buy a burger for ten dollars. Imagine imagine a burger, yes, 2:37:55.600 --> 2:37:59.240 imagine a burger that's purchasable. Now, what you can't buy 2:37:59.280 --> 2:38:03.280 a burger with is like the ten bucks that a 2:38:03.400 --> 2:38:06.600 guy you work with owes you for buying him a burger. 2:38:06.840 --> 2:38:08.320 Depends on how well you know the burger guy. 2:38:09.120 --> 2:38:13.760 Yeah, but that's that's where things get bad. Yeah, right now, 2:38:13.920 --> 2:38:15.880 the thing is right, right, So the ten bucks the 2:38:15.920 --> 2:38:19.720 guy you work with like owes you not liquid. You 2:38:19.760 --> 2:38:21.280 don't have the money in your hands, and if you 2:38:21.360 --> 2:38:23.160 want to get it from him, you have to like 2:38:23.720 --> 2:38:25.520 go ask him for the money, and maybe he has 2:38:25.600 --> 2:38:27.760 ten bucks and maybe he doesn't, right at which point 2:38:27.840 --> 2:38:30.280 you can't get your ten dollars back until he has 2:38:30.320 --> 2:38:30.640 the money. 2:38:30.920 --> 2:38:33.600 That but then ten dollars that I'm theoretically owed is 2:38:33.680 --> 2:38:35.680 an asset though I have not a debt. 2:38:36.320 --> 2:38:41.400 Yes, okay, yes, it's stupid. Now, Loans loans are not 2:38:41.600 --> 2:38:43.880 liquid assets, right, and they're not liquid assets because you 2:38:43.920 --> 2:38:45.560 can't get the money back like immediately. 2:38:45.879 --> 2:38:47.760 So I don't have ten dollars I can spend, but 2:38:47.840 --> 2:38:50.240 on paper, I do have ten theoretical dollars. 2:38:50.600 --> 2:38:52.480 Yeah right. And this is also like most of what 2:38:52.600 --> 2:38:55.240 billionaire money is, hey, correct, Like most of their money 2:38:55.400 --> 2:38:57.800 is like in like a stock or some shit or 2:38:57.920 --> 2:38:59.480 like it's weird fake money. 2:38:59.520 --> 2:39:01.879 Like they could access this amount of money, but. 2:39:01.840 --> 2:39:04.360 They don't have it. Yeah, it's not real now, Okay, 2:39:05.560 --> 2:39:07.240 there is this question, so why why would you keep 2:39:07.280 --> 2:39:09.480 your money in fake money instead of real money? And 2:39:09.600 --> 2:39:12.440 the answer is that it gives you more money back 2:39:12.920 --> 2:39:16.480 because say you're an asshole, right, and you're charging interest 2:39:16.640 --> 2:39:18.599 on your coworker for that burger. 2:39:18.360 --> 2:39:20.600 Love right, So that ten dollars is actually worth more 2:39:20.640 --> 2:39:22.880 than ten dollars money. So the ten dollars that I 2:39:23.000 --> 2:39:25.960 don't have is theoretically worthwll. 2:39:25.680 --> 2:39:28.080 You're worth more. Yeah, it's worth more than the money 2:39:28.160 --> 2:39:31.760 that you do have. I can get cheese on the burger, yes, right. 2:39:33.320 --> 2:39:36.600 And this is like the fundamental thing of the banking system, 2:39:36.760 --> 2:39:39.440 Like one of them is that ill liquid assets or 2:39:39.520 --> 2:39:42.040 like assets that you that aren't money are worth more 2:39:42.320 --> 2:39:42.959 than money. 2:39:43.800 --> 2:39:46.160 I guess like when I put a small amount of 2:39:46.240 --> 2:39:49.800 my savings into a CD. That's what I'm doing, except 2:39:49.879 --> 2:39:54.119 normal style. They're doing it weird. Yeah, basically because that's 2:39:54.160 --> 2:39:56.920 like an I liquid asset that I'm I'm I'm trading 2:39:56.959 --> 2:40:00.400 the ability to access that liquidity for the POTENTI more 2:40:00.400 --> 2:40:00.840 money later. 2:40:00.879 --> 2:40:02.280 Wait. Sorry when you say do you mean like a 2:40:02.440 --> 2:40:04.760 like a physical like a disc, like a CD. No, 2:40:04.879 --> 2:40:07.160 a CD like at the bank, like the yeah yeah, 2:40:07.320 --> 2:40:10.560 like the investment product. Yeah sure, yeah yeah, Sorry. I 2:40:10.680 --> 2:40:13.480 was like, no, I'm not talking about buying compact. I 2:40:14.040 --> 2:40:16.600 would just leave at five am this time. It's been 2:40:17.760 --> 2:40:20.959 ever heard of it. Wow, there's there's actually a really 2:40:21.400 --> 2:40:24.480 an annoying thing researching this episode because there's like, so 2:40:25.000 --> 2:40:27.440 CDOs are like a type of loan that will kind 2:40:27.440 --> 2:40:28.840 of get you in a bit. But there's also a 2:40:28.959 --> 2:40:32.640 tech position called cdo. It's like chief something. 2:40:32.480 --> 2:40:34.400 Officer, a dookie officer who cares. 2:40:34.560 --> 2:40:36.600 Yeah whatever the fuck? Right, But like when you're trying 2:40:36.680 --> 2:40:40.200 to search for stuff that's like about CDOs, right, the 2:40:40.360 --> 2:40:44.240 other one keeps coming up. I hate it. Okay, okay, 2:40:44.320 --> 2:40:47.760 locking in, locking in, right, lock and load. Now what 2:40:47.959 --> 2:40:50.600 if you both want into more money and also the 2:40:50.680 --> 2:40:51.720 ability to buy a burger. 2:40:52.160 --> 2:40:55.640 I guess I would uh probably break one of Carl's fingers. 2:40:56.280 --> 2:40:58.280 This is the guy that owes me the ten dollars, Carl. 2:40:58.640 --> 2:41:02.440 Yeah, but even then, and it's hard to even that's like, 2:41:03.040 --> 2:41:04.440 this is too hard for these people. 2:41:04.600 --> 2:41:06.520 I would go to Carl's house and kick him out 2:41:06.560 --> 2:41:06.680 of it. 2:41:07.280 --> 2:41:09.520 Well yeah, so but the other thing is like you 2:41:09.680 --> 2:41:12.320 are not very rich, okay these people. If you are 2:41:12.800 --> 2:41:16.080 really really rich, I am talking like billionaires maybe like 2:41:16.200 --> 2:41:19.560 high high class multimillionaires. Well, you can go to a 2:41:19.640 --> 2:41:23.320 shadow bank. Oh right, you can get a loan based 2:41:23.360 --> 2:41:26.120 on the loan. No, well you're saying. So the thing 2:41:26.200 --> 2:41:29.520 is that you have money, right, but you want to 2:41:29.600 --> 2:41:32.200 turn your money into more money, Like you have like 2:41:32.200 --> 2:41:35.840 actual cash, right, like you are you are, for example, 2:41:35.879 --> 2:41:39.360 a pension fund. You have a shit ton of cash. 2:41:39.840 --> 2:41:41.720 Or imagine imagine a pension fund. 2:41:41.840 --> 2:41:41.920 Right. 2:41:42.280 --> 2:41:42.920 This is okay. 2:41:43.320 --> 2:41:45.080 This is also really hard because it used to be 2:41:45.160 --> 2:41:47.520 easier to explain this because like we used to live 2:41:47.560 --> 2:41:50.080 in a world where people had pension funds and had mortgages, 2:41:50.480 --> 2:41:53.320 and now we no longer have pension funds or mortgages. 2:41:54.280 --> 2:41:56.200 I live in an apartment, and I will always live 2:41:56.280 --> 2:41:56.920 in an apartment. 2:41:57.560 --> 2:41:57.800 Yeah. 2:41:57.959 --> 2:42:01.240 No, and still okay, So like imagine imagine a pension fund. Right, 2:42:01.920 --> 2:42:04.080 you have a shit ton of money from your members 2:42:04.120 --> 2:42:07.400 paying into the fund, but it's cash. You need to 2:42:07.440 --> 2:42:10.320 turn that cash into more money. But also you're a 2:42:10.440 --> 2:42:13.320 pension fund, so you constantly have to take money back 2:42:13.480 --> 2:42:15.800 out in order to pay the people who are retiring 2:42:15.920 --> 2:42:18.640 to pay old right. Well, yeah, and this is also 2:42:18.680 --> 2:42:19.760 a thing that like, you know, if you're just like 2:42:19.800 --> 2:42:21.880 a rich person, sometimes you want your a lot of 2:42:21.920 --> 2:42:25.080 times you want your money in assets that are like 2:42:25.440 --> 2:42:27.240 you can you can turn back into real money, but 2:42:27.320 --> 2:42:28.760 also make you a shit ton of money. 2:42:29.400 --> 2:42:29.520 Right. 2:42:29.560 --> 2:42:31.480 They need to sort of revolve a little bit theyd 2:42:31.600 --> 2:42:34.400 be like yeah, I don't know, like a jello like 2:42:34.520 --> 2:42:35.400 partially liquid. 2:42:35.720 --> 2:42:39.360 Yeah, and this is this is what the shadow banks do, right, 2:42:39.440 --> 2:42:41.840 because the thing that you can buy is one of 2:42:41.920 --> 2:42:45.320 those mortgages they've turned into like a security. Right, you 2:42:45.400 --> 2:42:48.400 can go buy someone else's debt, huh, but because it's 2:42:48.440 --> 2:42:51.720 a magic security now, and these are called mortgage backed securities. 2:42:51.800 --> 2:42:54.560 And again, if you're to remember, yeah, anything about anything 2:42:54.560 --> 2:42:56.360 about two thousand and eight, that's what blew up the 2:42:56.360 --> 2:42:58.680 whole economy. Is these mortgage backed securities? 2:42:58.840 --> 2:43:01.119 Yeah, I've heard of that because it was bad, yep, 2:43:01.640 --> 2:43:03.800 terrible idea, and so we're still doing that. 2:43:04.320 --> 2:43:08.560 Oh yeah, it's good. I mean it's it's less specifically 2:43:08.640 --> 2:43:10.760 the mortgage back ones are less bad as they started 2:43:10.800 --> 2:43:16.360 doing it with like commercial retail loans, which is incredible. Great, 2:43:16.760 --> 2:43:19.840 so that's really fun. They're also doing with other unhidden 2:43:19.840 --> 2:43:22.400 shit that we're gonna do like next episode. And what 2:43:22.480 --> 2:43:25.240 these people are really buying aren't just these like you're 2:43:25.240 --> 2:43:27.760 not buying like one person's mortgage, right right. They're like 2:43:27.840 --> 2:43:31.080 pooled and like bundled. Yeah, yeah, they like they bundle 2:43:31.120 --> 2:43:33.680 them all together and then you you buy the rights 2:43:33.760 --> 2:43:36.080 to a percentage of the pool. 2:43:36.640 --> 2:43:38.960 It's not like when you sponsor like an elephant in 2:43:39.000 --> 2:43:40.680 Africa or something, and they send you a picture of 2:43:40.760 --> 2:43:42.720 like a specific element, or they don't send you they 2:43:42.760 --> 2:43:44.960 doesten to a picture of the family you're arming. No, 2:43:46.040 --> 2:43:47.880 these are the Joneses. You own their fucking house. 2:43:47.959 --> 2:43:51.119 Yeah, it's it's it's it's it's it's a ship show. No, well, 2:43:51.600 --> 2:43:53.280 I mean eventually you might have to go figure out 2:43:53.320 --> 2:43:55.720 who that is because you like own whatever the fuck 2:43:55.760 --> 2:43:59.120 percentage of like the mortgages or whatever. But like, okay, 2:43:59.600 --> 2:44:02.920 so these are these are just like someone else's debt 2:44:03.120 --> 2:44:05.920 that you're buying, and that the people who can do 2:44:06.080 --> 2:44:09.120 this are you know, people who have billions of dollars. 2:44:09.160 --> 2:44:10.760 It's not you, the listener. And by the way, if 2:44:10.800 --> 2:44:12.760 you the listener have billions of dollars lying around for 2:44:12.840 --> 2:44:16.160 some reason, can I have some please? Yes, please please 2:44:16.240 --> 2:44:18.280 give me some of them so I can house like 2:44:18.440 --> 2:44:21.560 literally every trans woman and like transperson, I can. I 2:44:21.640 --> 2:44:23.600 can do it, Like, please give me your billions of 2:44:23.640 --> 2:44:25.600 dollars so I can I can achieve this goal. But 2:44:25.720 --> 2:44:28.160 like we're talking about you know, like like the Pension 2:44:28.200 --> 2:44:31.160 Fund of California, we're talking about mega corporations, insurance companies, 2:44:31.200 --> 2:44:32.840 the kinds of things I can actually buy these, like 2:44:33.560 --> 2:44:37.000 you know. Now, this is where we get to one 2:44:37.040 --> 2:44:39.440 of the other problems, which is that these things are 2:44:39.480 --> 2:44:45.680 not insured. So yeah, what do you do in order 2:44:45.760 --> 2:44:47.480 to try to make it less risky? What do you 2:44:47.720 --> 2:44:50.120 get if you can't pay the loan back? And this 2:44:50.280 --> 2:44:52.600 is what's called collateral I don't know, swift punch of 2:44:52.640 --> 2:44:55.880 the nuts. Oh no, they take your house right, Yes, 2:44:56.120 --> 2:44:58.760 that's supposed to be the thing. So okay. The way 2:44:58.800 --> 2:45:01.960 that like shadow banking loans tend to work is that 2:45:03.040 --> 2:45:06.119 they they have collateral, right, so you you give them 2:45:06.240 --> 2:45:09.240 something or or it's either you give them something directly 2:45:09.600 --> 2:45:13.120 or it's like if you promise to give them the thing. Yeah, 2:45:13.200 --> 2:45:16.240 and giving it to them directly is like a repo 2:45:16.360 --> 2:45:18.280 market thing. We're not really going to get into those 2:45:18.640 --> 2:45:20.880 right now, but this does. That's like, that's also a 2:45:21.000 --> 2:45:24.000 kind of shadow bank. But there's a problem, right, which 2:45:24.120 --> 2:45:26.920 is what if the thing that you're paying, you're paying 2:45:27.000 --> 2:45:30.240 as collateral, Like what if your house becomes worthless? And 2:45:30.520 --> 2:45:32.680 what if? What if Molly, and it's. 2:45:32.560 --> 2:45:35.600 Completely uninsured and there's no way to fix it because 2:45:35.600 --> 2:45:36.879 I don't even have anything to give you. 2:45:38.360 --> 2:45:41.400 Now, now, Molly, what if And this is purely hypothetical, 2:45:41.600 --> 2:45:43.640 It could never happen in the real world, Molly, But 2:45:43.879 --> 2:45:49.080 what if somehow, someone someone decided to use the same 2:45:49.440 --> 2:45:53.480 house as collateral for multiple different securities. 2:45:53.840 --> 2:45:54.880 Well, that could never go wrong. 2:45:55.400 --> 2:45:58.240 What if, Mollie, they made a word for this that 2:45:58.440 --> 2:46:00.880 is so complicated, I am not going to attempt to 2:46:00.920 --> 2:46:02.960 read it on the show. What if, Molly? 2:46:03.240 --> 2:46:04.400 What is it in German or something. 2:46:04.440 --> 2:46:06.440 No, it's like it's just like this, it's like the 2:46:06.640 --> 2:46:08.680 it's like the length of my head. It's like hyper 2:46:09.080 --> 2:46:12.720 hyper something bullshit. Like I refuse to say it because 2:46:12.920 --> 2:46:16.480 it is just like a completely like financed goal bullshit 2:46:16.640 --> 2:46:17.360 term they made up. 2:46:17.840 --> 2:46:21.080 So but the point of the point of collateral is 2:46:21.200 --> 2:46:24.280 that you can use it to pay off the loan 2:46:24.440 --> 2:46:27.560 if you default one. And so that literally won't work 2:46:27.640 --> 2:46:31.040 more than once because once I eat the burger, Once 2:46:31.080 --> 2:46:32.039 I eat the burger. 2:46:31.800 --> 2:46:34.760 It's bond yep. And this is one of the things 2:46:34.800 --> 2:46:36.680 that happened in two thousand years. I can't prom I 2:46:36.760 --> 2:46:40.320 can't promise ten guys my burger, now, Molly, here's the 2:46:40.360 --> 2:46:43.000 amazing thing here, right, Because but then the advantage for 2:46:43.040 --> 2:46:45.280 these companies, right is like, if you're the bank that 2:46:45.320 --> 2:46:47.520 has the mortgage, suddenly you can spin your mortgage off 2:46:47.520 --> 2:46:49.720 into like multiple securities that you can sell. 2:46:49.800 --> 2:46:52.240 Right, it's worth ten times more and that's great for you. 2:46:52.440 --> 2:46:58.320 Yes, and comma, comma, we we haven't even okay, I 2:46:59.000 --> 2:47:00.720 just I just described as to where these people are 2:47:00.760 --> 2:47:04.039 promising the same house to multiple people. This isn't even 2:47:04.200 --> 2:47:07.480 the extremely unfathomably reckless and greedy shit. No it is, 2:47:08.040 --> 2:47:10.360 Oh it is, but it's not the worst of it. 2:47:10.560 --> 2:47:23.440 Oh good. Okay, So do you remember that quote from 2:47:23.560 --> 2:47:26.720 when I was giving the first definition of shadow banking, right, Like, 2:47:26.800 --> 2:47:30.760 I gave this quote from the guy who invented the 2:47:30.879 --> 2:47:34.320 term where he called it quote the whole alphabet soup 2:47:34.360 --> 2:47:38.320 of leveraged up investment conduits, vehicles, and structures. Right. So 2:47:38.520 --> 2:47:41.160 we've kind of talked about the conduits, vehicles, and structures, right, 2:47:41.200 --> 2:47:43.280 those are all of the shadow banks that like make 2:47:43.320 --> 2:47:43.760 the things. Right. 2:47:44.040 --> 2:47:47.480 I love the conduits, vehicles, and structures. Yeah, all the acronyms. 2:47:48.000 --> 2:47:50.040 But what does leveraged up mean? 2:47:50.879 --> 2:47:51.000 Now? 2:47:51.640 --> 2:47:55.040 Okay? In this case, it means that a bunch of 2:47:55.120 --> 2:47:58.280 these banks have taken out a shit ton of like 2:47:59.000 --> 2:48:01.760 risky high end loans in order to buy more of 2:48:01.879 --> 2:48:04.680 these fucking mortgages because they think they can make more 2:48:04.720 --> 2:48:05.280 money off of it. 2:48:05.520 --> 2:48:08.920 So they took out they took out loans to buy 2:48:09.120 --> 2:48:12.080 these unsecured securities. 2:48:12.520 --> 2:48:17.280 The regular ass banks were doing this, Yeah, they they 2:48:17.440 --> 2:48:20.640 went into debt to buy more of these shitty mortgages. 2:48:20.879 --> 2:48:23.920 So they took out loans to buy what are essentially 2:48:24.120 --> 2:48:25.560 unsecured loans. 2:48:25.879 --> 2:48:27.760 Yep, because I thought it would make them more money. 2:48:27.840 --> 2:48:29.240 But there's no money involved. 2:48:33.400 --> 2:48:36.240 Money It is about to get so much worse, right, 2:48:36.320 --> 2:48:39.280 So okay, So sticking with leveraging for a second. Right, 2:48:39.920 --> 2:48:42.800 you might have actually heard of something called a leveraged buyout. 2:48:43.280 --> 2:48:46.560 I have heard those words, and then I stopped listening. Yeah, 2:48:46.600 --> 2:48:49.200 so here's the thing. Leverage buyouts are something that actually 2:48:49.200 --> 2:48:51.600 happens in the real world that does fuck you directly, 2:48:52.000 --> 2:48:54.080 which is a whole bunch of companies that used to 2:48:54.120 --> 2:48:58.080 be like normalized companies like died because venture capital firms, you, 2:48:58.120 --> 2:49:01.680 by the way, are also shadow banks. Oh did this right? 2:49:01.879 --> 2:49:04.200 They came in tactically speaking, they did it through like 2:49:04.400 --> 2:49:06.600 risky bond purchases, but basically they did a bunch of 2:49:06.640 --> 2:49:09.240 high interest loans and then they go buy a company 2:49:09.280 --> 2:49:11.080 and then they like strip it for parts, and then 2:49:11.120 --> 2:49:12.960 they try to raise the stock price of the company. 2:49:13.040 --> 2:49:16.320 Yeah, and the river parts, sell everything and and get out. Right, 2:49:16.480 --> 2:49:17.760 that's what a leverage buyout is. 2:49:18.080 --> 2:49:19.880 These people are sort of are doing kind of a 2:49:20.040 --> 2:49:22.640 version of that, but like they're they're taking on this 2:49:22.800 --> 2:49:26.080 debt in order to like buy fucking shitty underwater mortgages 2:49:28.280 --> 2:49:30.320 because they look like they're making so much money. 2:49:30.600 --> 2:49:31.200 They're taking on. 2:49:31.320 --> 2:49:34.240 Real debt to buy hypothetical debt. 2:49:34.560 --> 2:49:37.600 Oh, it's about to get so much worse. 2:49:38.000 --> 2:49:40.480 That doesn't seem like a good idea. 2:49:40.480 --> 2:49:43.280 So not to get so much worse. So that's what 2:49:43.480 --> 2:49:44.920 like the leveraged part of that. 2:49:45.240 --> 2:49:47.400 I don't even know how you do that in burgers. 2:49:47.760 --> 2:49:52.400 I don't know. You're going into debt to like buy 2:49:52.520 --> 2:49:55.120 the promise of burgers in the future so you can 2:49:55.200 --> 2:49:56.359 sell those future burgers. 2:49:56.560 --> 2:49:59.000 Yeah, but burgers are real. The thing we're not talking 2:49:59.000 --> 2:49:59.640 about a real. 2:50:00.600 --> 2:50:03.600 Well technically technically speaking. Somewhere at the bottom of this 2:50:03.680 --> 2:50:06.240 is mortgages. However, Comma, we're about to get into a 2:50:06.360 --> 2:50:08.880 kind of asset where there isn't anything behind it. And 2:50:09.040 --> 2:50:14.199 this is where the really really truly unhinged shit starts. 2:50:14.360 --> 2:50:16.760 It hasn't, which is that these companies figured out a 2:50:16.840 --> 2:50:20.520 way to bet on whether these mortgages were going to 2:50:20.560 --> 2:50:21.040 fail or not. 2:50:21.360 --> 2:50:23.880 That's so tight MEA, I fucking love that. 2:50:24.280 --> 2:50:24.880 I love it. 2:50:25.240 --> 2:50:28.640 Yes, yes, by the way, I kindatize enough, how how 2:50:28.760 --> 2:50:32.240 unhinged this is the mechanism they're using to do this 2:50:32.800 --> 2:50:35.760 is called a credit default swap. Oh, I've heard that phrase. 2:50:36.200 --> 2:50:39.039 This was supposed to be how they did insurance. Their 2:50:39.120 --> 2:50:41.920 mechanism for doing insurance on all of these insane loans 2:50:41.920 --> 2:50:45.560 they were doing was originally like Okay, I'm gonna you're 2:50:45.840 --> 2:50:47.640 don't know, so you have a you have a bank, right, 2:50:47.720 --> 2:50:50.320 the bank has given out a risky loan. So this 2:50:50.480 --> 2:50:52.640 bank goes to another bank they shouldn't do that, and 2:50:52.720 --> 2:50:55.640 they say, hey, if this person actually pays the loan back, 2:50:55.720 --> 2:50:56.600 I will pay you money. 2:50:57.120 --> 2:50:58.880 Okay, So the other so the other bank is like 2:50:59.160 --> 2:50:59.879 taking a gamble. 2:51:00.560 --> 2:51:03.840 Yeah, So the other bank that's giving out the loan 2:51:04.080 --> 2:51:06.760 right gets money if the loan goes under. So in 2:51:06.879 --> 2:51:09.480 theory they're sort of like insured against the risk. They 2:51:09.520 --> 2:51:11.800 call it like hedging. They're like so like like so 2:51:11.920 --> 2:51:14.360 theoretically it's less bad from them because now even if 2:51:14.400 --> 2:51:16.320 the loan goes under, they still get money back from 2:51:16.360 --> 2:51:20.039 that other bank. So the other bank is just a bookie. Yeah, 2:51:20.480 --> 2:51:22.800 and the other bank is betting that they are going 2:51:22.920 --> 2:51:26.440 to get it. So then and if the loan does 2:51:26.520 --> 2:51:28.760 get paid, then that bank makes money. And this is 2:51:28.879 --> 2:51:30.760 legal for everyone to do. Yep. 2:51:31.320 --> 2:51:32.879 This is real banking or shadow bank. 2:51:33.000 --> 2:51:38.000 This is real bank didn't know this is technically actually no, 2:51:38.240 --> 2:51:41.480 this is actually both both of them do this. Technically speaking, 2:51:41.600 --> 2:51:44.280 the instrument like like the actual like credit default swap 2:51:44.400 --> 2:51:46.120 or whatever, is made by the shadow banks, but then 2:51:46.120 --> 2:51:47.680 they're brought by the regular banks. 2:51:47.800 --> 2:51:50.240 I'm started to think that the bank starts the shadow 2:51:50.280 --> 2:51:53.000 banks and then all of this is just fake and bad. 2:51:53.600 --> 2:51:53.640 Like. 2:51:53.840 --> 2:51:56.520 So here's the thing about these systems, right, is that, 2:51:56.600 --> 2:51:58.600 like a lot of the original literature on it was 2:51:58.600 --> 2:52:01.360 considering them separate. But it's like no, like the regular 2:52:01.440 --> 2:52:03.520 banks are making their own shadow banks do these things. 2:52:03.560 --> 2:52:06.240 They're all involved in these assets. They're also investing in 2:52:06.400 --> 2:52:08.800 the shadow banks, which is the problem we're having right now. 2:52:09.080 --> 2:52:10.280 It's like it's the same guy. 2:52:10.400 --> 2:52:12.320 He just like turns his chair around at his desk 2:52:12.400 --> 2:52:14.000 and he's like, now I'm shadow bank Todd. 2:52:14.240 --> 2:52:18.080 Yeah. Well, and sometimes it's that sometimes there legitimately is 2:52:18.240 --> 2:52:20.440 just other entities they work with, but yeah. 2:52:20.240 --> 2:52:22.959 But there's still it's still a bank engaging. So it's like, oh, 2:52:23.000 --> 2:52:25.160 these are non banking practices, yeah, but the bank is 2:52:25.200 --> 2:52:26.039 doing it well. 2:52:26.080 --> 2:52:28.080 But here's the thing. The important part for that though, 2:52:28.160 --> 2:52:29.920 is that like the non bank also can do this 2:52:30.040 --> 2:52:33.680 with other non banks even better even yeah, right, I. 2:52:33.720 --> 2:52:35.600 Just feel like once we're once we're talking about shadow banking, 2:52:35.640 --> 2:52:37.800 like the real bank should not be in the room, 2:52:38.200 --> 2:52:40.959 Like go home, Wells Fargo, you don't belong here, you're drunk. 2:52:41.240 --> 2:52:43.920 No, But like they're funding all of this, right, If the. 2:52:43.959 --> 2:52:45.840 Real bank is involved with the shadow banking, that means 2:52:45.879 --> 2:52:47.840 like I can't opt out of being involved in this 2:52:48.240 --> 2:52:49.360 because they get my money. 2:52:50.040 --> 2:52:51.760 Yeah, you know what we were talking about that at 2:52:51.760 --> 2:52:53.640 the top that like so some of these like bank 2:52:53.720 --> 2:52:55.600 banks had to like stop their withdrawals. Oh yeah, one 2:52:55.640 --> 2:52:57.680 of those, by the way, was JP Morgan. But that's 2:52:57.680 --> 2:53:00.720 a real bank, Yep. They're involved in the banking shit, 2:53:01.160 --> 2:53:04.600 so they are exposed to when they're like fucking seven 2:53:04.680 --> 2:53:07.120 hundred million dollar loan to like a fucking actually went home. 2:53:07.120 --> 2:53:09.119 Which one was the seven hundred million dollar I think 2:53:09.160 --> 2:53:11.160 a seven hundred million dollar loan that went under was 2:53:11.200 --> 2:53:15.119 the one that was to a subprime auto loan company. 2:53:15.600 --> 2:53:18.720 That's a bad investment. It's why it's so evil. 2:53:19.320 --> 2:53:22.480 So why am I trusting all of my money that 2:53:22.560 --> 2:53:24.640 I have in this world? I'm letting this guy hold 2:53:24.680 --> 2:53:27.119 on to it who's obviously not good with fucking money. 2:53:28.040 --> 2:53:31.360 Well, because the fdi C is ensuring it. Why are 2:53:31.440 --> 2:53:32.080 you in charge of it? 2:53:32.200 --> 2:53:33.920 Why are you in charge of having the money? You 2:53:34.000 --> 2:53:36.920 obviously don't make great financial decisions because you invested seven 2:53:37.000 --> 2:53:39.360 hundred million dollars in subprime auto loans. 2:53:40.800 --> 2:53:43.480 So, Mollie, this is the this is the point where 2:53:44.040 --> 2:53:46.440 we need to bring debt the first five thousand years 2:53:46.520 --> 2:53:48.520 back into this and emphasize the extent to which the 2:53:48.560 --> 2:53:51.800 financial class has always been deeply connected to the military, 2:53:52.240 --> 2:53:55.280 and why has always been deconnected to war financing. I'm 2:53:55.320 --> 2:53:58.760 starting to realize that this is all very bad. It's 2:53:58.959 --> 2:54:01.000 very bad, it's all fair, and this is this is 2:54:01.080 --> 2:54:04.200 to some extent why right Like part part of what 2:54:04.360 --> 2:54:08.120 right wing conspiracism about the financial system is is that 2:54:08.280 --> 2:54:10.800 like these people are like like the right wingers, like 2:54:10.840 --> 2:54:13.600 these people are there's like a baseline level of anti semitism, 2:54:13.720 --> 2:54:15.720 like in the US right because it is a is 2:54:15.760 --> 2:54:19.000 a Christian society that is just like what fucking happens there? 2:54:19.440 --> 2:54:22.879 And these people are like, Okay, we can channel all 2:54:23.000 --> 2:54:26.040 of the anger at like, oh my god, by fucking 2:54:26.120 --> 2:54:29.440 house got stolen by the bank because because they were 2:54:29.520 --> 2:54:30.760 betting on the mortgage to. 2:54:30.760 --> 2:54:33.680 Fail, and I still understand why that's legal. 2:54:34.480 --> 2:54:34.640 Yeah. 2:54:34.760 --> 2:54:36.760 Well, all these right wing conspiracits do is they look 2:54:36.800 --> 2:54:38.000 at that shit and they go, oh, well it was 2:54:38.040 --> 2:54:40.360 the Jews, and it's like but no, like fuck off, 2:54:40.680 --> 2:54:42.360 like these are all No, it was the band and 2:54:42.600 --> 2:54:44.119 the other thing. And this is actually a really important 2:54:44.120 --> 2:54:46.280 thing that's not well understood here is that like the 2:54:46.400 --> 2:54:48.840 actual people who run these fucking banks and the people 2:54:48.840 --> 2:54:51.760 who work at them are all fucking white Christian dipshits. 2:54:52.240 --> 2:54:54.840 This is like a really really like persistent issue that 2:54:54.920 --> 2:54:57.280 everyone fucking has, which is that like one of one 2:54:57.320 --> 2:54:59.720 of the great successes of anti Semitism was like creating 2:54:59.800 --> 2:55:02.520 the image of the banker as a Jewish person. And no, 2:55:03.040 --> 2:55:05.320 they're not the bait, Like I fucking went to school 2:55:05.320 --> 2:55:06.960 with these people. They're all a bunch of fucking white 2:55:07.040 --> 2:55:09.680 frat bros. They're fucking white Christian frat ros. Oh right, 2:55:09.720 --> 2:55:12.320 you University of Chicago, you have a degree in economics 2:55:12.360 --> 2:55:14.560 in the University of Chicago. No, facing, I have an 2:55:14.600 --> 2:55:19.280 anthropology degree, Thank you very much. I took a not 2:55:19.400 --> 2:55:22.000 a fucking fake degree like the stupid econ bullshit. 2:55:21.720 --> 2:55:25.560 ID say that's actually so evil to study economics. It's Chicago, 2:55:25.600 --> 2:55:27.400 you probably met some of the most evil people. 2:55:28.000 --> 2:55:30.480 Armed I was just like in a dorm with them, 2:55:31.160 --> 2:55:33.080 so you saw that I know all these people. Yeah, 2:55:33.120 --> 2:55:35.240 and like it is not it is not a bunch 2:55:35.280 --> 2:55:37.560 of Jewish people. It's it's a bunch of Christian frat bros. 2:55:37.879 --> 2:55:39.800 Like that's like the thing that's actually going on. There's 2:55:39.800 --> 2:55:42.640 actually a whole One day I will write Behind the 2:55:42.680 --> 2:55:46.320 Basket's episode about leverage buyouts and about how like there 2:55:46.440 --> 2:55:48.600 was like a Jewish guy who kind of like like 2:55:49.360 --> 2:55:51.920 did a lot of the inventing stuff, but him breaking 2:55:52.040 --> 2:55:54.400 into the banking thing was like a whole thing because 2:55:54.400 --> 2:55:56.200 there was so much anti Semitism because all of the 2:55:56.240 --> 2:55:59.000 banking sector was run by all of the fucking like 2:55:59.600 --> 2:56:07.040 weird dipshit like CIA, like like wasp motherfuckers. I mean, 2:56:07.080 --> 2:56:09.879 the Mormons have a huge hedge fund. Yep, yep, yep, 2:56:09.959 --> 2:56:10.560 yep yep. 2:56:10.640 --> 2:56:12.160 Yeah, so like the what I say, I read an 2:56:12.200 --> 2:56:13.880 article about it, the hedge fund, that the Mormons operate 2:56:14.000 --> 2:56:16.800 like they have their like best and brightest finance bros. 2:56:16.879 --> 2:56:19.000 Like you know, Mormons do their to your mission. If 2:56:19.040 --> 2:56:22.000 you're really good at finance your mission that you don't 2:56:22.000 --> 2:56:23.600 have to go to South America and like tell people 2:56:23.600 --> 2:56:25.040 about the Book of Mormon. You can work at the 2:56:25.080 --> 2:56:26.080 hedge fund as your mission. 2:56:26.480 --> 2:56:29.360 It's a nightmare. I'm doing a hedge funds for God. Yep. 2:56:29.440 --> 2:56:34.040 That's a SATs shadow bank, by the way, Yep, it's great. 2:56:34.720 --> 2:56:38.520 So okay, okay, coming back to this again. Right, so 2:56:38.640 --> 2:56:40.800 we're talking about like what what causes two thousand and 2:56:40.800 --> 2:56:43.080 eight and how do these shadow banks like do this? 2:56:43.800 --> 2:56:46.800 And the answer is that they've turned all of these 2:56:46.879 --> 2:56:50.760 mortgages into these like fake securities then they can trade, right, 2:56:51.520 --> 2:56:55.080 they package them all together, and they find out something 2:56:55.160 --> 2:56:57.360 really crucial, which is that if they throw a bunch 2:56:57.440 --> 2:56:59.360 of loans that they obviously know are going to fail 2:56:59.400 --> 2:57:02.040 together and send them to a regulatory agency. And by 2:57:02.040 --> 2:57:04.120 the way, all of these like bonds that they're issuing 2:57:04.200 --> 2:57:06.560 have like grades based on supposed to be like how 2:57:06.600 --> 2:57:09.600 safe they are, And they figure out yeah, and they 2:57:09.680 --> 2:57:11.560 figure out that they can send a bunch of really 2:57:11.600 --> 2:57:14.280 shitty bonds. But if they package enough shitty bonds together, 2:57:14.320 --> 2:57:17.040 they could send them to the regulators and the regulators 2:57:17.080 --> 2:57:19.480 would have would evaluate some of them as being good, 2:57:19.840 --> 2:57:21.600 and then you could sell the good ones to your 2:57:21.720 --> 2:57:24.800 pension fund because I thought it was a good bond 2:57:26.920 --> 2:57:30.360 and it made money. That's just lying and then and 2:57:30.480 --> 2:57:33.680 then yes, and yes and then and then behind the scenes, right, 2:57:33.920 --> 2:57:36.000 all of these fucking companies, all these shadow banks, all 2:57:36.040 --> 2:57:39.119 the regular banks, they're all doing these. They're all doing 2:57:39.200 --> 2:57:41.560 these credit default swaps, right, so they're all betting on 2:57:41.720 --> 2:57:43.000 which ones of these are going to fail. 2:57:43.120 --> 2:57:45.280 I'm putting all of these boys in time out. 2:57:45.440 --> 2:57:47.039 I'm gonna put them in the bottom of a tad 2:57:47.400 --> 2:57:50.440 so evil. And and they they start, they start doing these, 2:57:50.560 --> 2:57:53.520 making these like even more complicated instruments right where, Now 2:57:54.240 --> 2:57:56.320 what they're what they're selling to you isn't just the 2:57:56.400 --> 2:57:59.480 package of mortgages. They're also selling you the credit default 2:57:59.520 --> 2:58:02.760 swaps with the loan. So theoretically, what's happening is like 2:58:02.800 --> 2:58:05.520 they've created an instrument that, regardless of what happens to 2:58:05.600 --> 2:58:08.520 the loan, you make money. That's not how anything works. No, 2:58:08.879 --> 2:58:12.199 it's bullshit. It's so obviously bullshit. 2:58:12.520 --> 2:58:14.880 I made up this fake thing where no matter what happens, 2:58:14.959 --> 2:58:15.560 I get rich. 2:58:15.760 --> 2:58:18.280 That's cool. I would love to do that. Yeah, And 2:58:18.400 --> 2:58:20.240 nobody was like wait, well, I mean sometimes a couple 2:58:20.240 --> 2:58:22.360 of people were, but like, like people didn't just be 2:58:22.560 --> 2:58:24.920 like wait, hold on, no, obviously, you can't make an 2:58:24.959 --> 2:58:28.400 asset that makes money regardless of whether the thing fails 2:58:28.480 --> 2:58:31.439 or not. I invented a money machine, Like that's fucking ridiculous. 2:58:31.600 --> 2:58:33.680 And then eventually, yeah, it was like, no, they ran 2:58:33.720 --> 2:58:34.879 out of fucking mortgages. 2:58:35.480 --> 2:58:35.640 You know. 2:58:36.160 --> 2:58:37.680 One of the ways that the blame for this was 2:58:37.720 --> 2:58:41.120 deflected onto regular people was that they blamed the banks 2:58:41.480 --> 2:58:43.360 or like they blamed regular people for like not being 2:58:43.360 --> 2:58:45.560 able to pay the mortgages. But the thing is, by 2:58:45.600 --> 2:58:47.000 the time you get to the point where you're like 2:58:47.200 --> 2:58:50.160 packaging all that, you're betting on the mortgages. Right, if 2:58:50.200 --> 2:58:52.840 you're a bank, even if you're the regular bank, you 2:58:52.879 --> 2:58:55.640 don't make money off of like someone paying their mortgage back. 2:58:55.959 --> 2:59:00.000 You make money on betting on the mortgages. So you're incentive. 2:59:00.240 --> 2:59:02.720 So just keep giving out loans you know won't happen 2:59:02.760 --> 2:59:04.760 because you can sell those loans off to some other 2:59:04.840 --> 2:59:06.880 dipshit and then you and then you can bet on 2:59:07.000 --> 2:59:08.680 those loans that they're going to fail and you can 2:59:08.760 --> 2:59:10.840 make money. And that's how you make your money because you're. 2:59:10.879 --> 2:59:14.680 You're not a bank anymore, you're a bookie who's cheating. 2:59:15.520 --> 2:59:19.480 Yep. I don't think that's good Mia. No, this was 2:59:19.520 --> 2:59:23.280 the entire fucking financial system. We just let these people 2:59:23.320 --> 2:59:24.959 stay in power, and. 2:59:25.040 --> 2:59:27.400 I'm just supposed to just continue living my life like this. 2:59:28.520 --> 2:59:31.960 I don't know, like looking at this and then and 2:59:32.000 --> 2:59:33.959 then learning that all of these people got fucking bailed 2:59:34.000 --> 2:59:35.640 up by the government and none of them went to prison. 2:59:35.879 --> 2:59:39.080 And do they know they're cheating liars who are faking 2:59:39.120 --> 2:59:39.760 and making it up? 2:59:39.840 --> 2:59:41.520 Or are they like so high on their own supply 2:59:41.640 --> 2:59:43.120 they're like they're like, no, bro, no, but this is 2:59:43.120 --> 2:59:43.680 totally gonna work. 2:59:43.680 --> 2:59:45.960 It's totally gonna work. Well, here's the thing. Some of 2:59:46.080 --> 2:59:49.120 them know and some of them don't, because some of 2:59:49.200 --> 2:59:51.680 them believe that this is cool. Yeah, Like some some 2:59:51.800 --> 2:59:53.680 of them legitimately thought that this was just going to 2:59:53.760 --> 2:59:54.279 work forever. 2:59:54.680 --> 2:59:57.600 Like do they believe they're negative money backed by other 2:59:57.720 --> 3:00:00.280 fake money backed by the idea of promise? Is a 3:00:00.320 --> 3:00:01.879 fake money? They think that's money? 3:00:02.040 --> 3:00:05.640 Yeah, yep, Well, thought was gonna work. It's not. It's not. Nope, 3:00:05.760 --> 3:00:07.360 And it turned out to not be any fucking money, 3:00:07.360 --> 3:00:11.520 and it blew up again, like entire countries, countries were 3:00:11.560 --> 3:00:14.800 buying these, they went bankrupt, So like this. 3:00:15.040 --> 3:00:19.680 Is less real than a board ape, nft, And that's 3:00:19.879 --> 3:00:20.959 really saying something. 3:00:21.280 --> 3:00:23.800 It's it's astonishing. 3:00:23.320 --> 3:00:25.200 Because at least the at least I can look at 3:00:25.280 --> 3:00:27.080 least I can look at the picture of the monkey. 3:00:27.200 --> 3:00:29.280 I can't look at this no, like it like you 3:00:29.360 --> 3:00:31.520 can't look at the bet you're making on whether and 3:00:31.640 --> 3:00:34.840 whether monkey go down, Like it's like like all my 3:00:35.040 --> 3:00:38.680 apes gone. Yeah, but it's suppressing because the entire world 3:00:38.800 --> 3:00:40.360 is just this. Now it's a shit the banks were 3:00:40.400 --> 3:00:42.160 doing where you're betting on whether mortgage would a fail, 3:00:42.160 --> 3:00:44.320 but now it's your betting on whether like what day 3:00:44.400 --> 3:00:45.800 we're going to drop a bomb on a run? 3:00:46.520 --> 3:00:48.879 Like nothing is real and everything is gambling. 3:00:49.240 --> 3:00:52.800 Yeah yeah, And this is you know what what I 3:00:52.800 --> 3:00:55.680 would call a sort of terminal crisis stage of capitalism 3:00:55.840 --> 3:00:56.520 where alike. 3:00:56.320 --> 3:00:59.360 Because everything is so divorced from any material reality, from 3:00:59.400 --> 3:00:59.959 any good. 3:00:59.879 --> 3:01:02.720 Or service, Like there is a limit to which you 3:01:02.760 --> 3:01:05.560 can run an entire economy that is purely based on gambling. 3:01:05.760 --> 3:01:08.200 Like they're just there's a limit and we're going to 3:01:08.240 --> 3:01:12.480 hit it. Really, So that's God, that's gonna break, right, Yeah, yeah, 3:01:12.560 --> 3:01:15.800 it's going to break. It's going to break spectacularly. However, Comma, 3:01:15.920 --> 3:01:18.680 I do have good news for you, don't I do? 3:01:19.000 --> 3:01:23.080 I have good news. You now actually understand what non 3:01:23.160 --> 3:01:28.080 bank financial intermediation is. No, I don't. I'm gonna walk 3:01:28.120 --> 3:01:31.080 you through it. You actually do. So, I'm going to 3:01:31.160 --> 3:01:36.119 quote the IMFs definition of non bank financial intermediation. Quote 3:01:36.440 --> 3:01:40.440 all entities outside the regulated banking system that perform the 3:01:40.600 --> 3:01:45.800 core banking functions. Credit intermediation, that is taking money from 3:01:45.840 --> 3:01:49.040 savers and letting it to borrowers. The four key aspects 3:01:49.080 --> 3:01:54.040 of intermediation are maturity transformation. We know this one, right, 3:01:54.360 --> 3:01:56.000 This is this is what the bank does. 3:01:56.000 --> 3:01:59.240 Alone gets older, Yeah, yeah, you gets paid back over time. 3:01:59.520 --> 3:01:59.720 Yeah. 3:01:59.760 --> 3:02:02.920 Well it's you you turn your short term thing into 3:02:03.000 --> 3:02:05.680 a long term investment, or you do the opposite opposite. 3:02:05.680 --> 3:02:09.560 It's not good. They're both kind of a disaster, but like, yeah, yeah, 3:02:09.560 --> 3:02:11.840 the the other opposite is kind of how we got 3:02:11.879 --> 3:02:16.280 into this mess. There's liquidity transformation, which we know this too. 3:02:16.400 --> 3:02:19.160 It's turning money into a thing that's not money. 3:02:19.120 --> 3:02:21.640 Yeah, or turning not money into things you can buy 3:02:21.680 --> 3:02:26.320 burger with. Okay, Yeah, I got this leverage. We also 3:02:26.480 --> 3:02:28.880 know this, which is you go into a bunch of 3:02:28.920 --> 3:02:33.760 debt to buy something else. And then there's credit risk transfer, 3:02:33.879 --> 3:02:35.720 which we know that one too. It's the betting market. 3:02:37.840 --> 3:02:41.720 Were supposedly swapping the risk by both of you two 3:02:41.760 --> 3:02:43.560 are now betting on whether this thing is going to fail. 3:02:43.800 --> 3:02:44.520 So it sounds like. 3:02:44.600 --> 3:02:48.400 Even just like regular banking is kind of just gambling now. 3:02:48.680 --> 3:02:52.120 Yep, yep, yep. Well, and it's fun too, So this 3:02:52.240 --> 3:02:53.640 is the thing that you used to be talked about 3:02:53.680 --> 3:02:56.920 more and isn't now. But like most of like like 3:02:57.160 --> 3:03:01.440 the world's corporations are also basically this, know, like this 3:03:01.480 --> 3:03:02.680 has been a thing for a while. But it's like 3:03:02.680 --> 3:03:04.960 the auto manufacturers don't make their money off of cars. 3:03:05.080 --> 3:03:06.520 I mean they sort of do. They make some money 3:03:06.520 --> 3:03:07.880 of cars, or like most of what they make their 3:03:07.920 --> 3:03:11.000 money off of is like the forward finance company, which 3:03:11.080 --> 3:03:13.880 is like the auto loans thing. Oh and then the 3:03:13.920 --> 3:03:16.320 auto loans thing trades a bunch of like does all 3:03:16.360 --> 3:03:18.840 of this other financial bullshit to make money? So like, 3:03:19.160 --> 3:03:22.200 I don't think that's a good idea. That's that's what 3:03:22.360 --> 3:03:23.200 capitalism is. 3:03:23.680 --> 3:03:28.400 So everything everything is fully reliant on. 3:03:28.560 --> 3:03:31.240 This, like stupid, gambling, bullshit, Emperor's. 3:03:30.760 --> 3:03:35.400 Wearing no clothes, economy yep. And if anybody, if anybody 3:03:35.480 --> 3:03:37.520 points out that none of this is connected to a 3:03:37.600 --> 3:03:39.680 material reality, everything falls apart. 3:03:40.360 --> 3:03:42.360 Well, here's the thing. The thing that stoves everything for 3:03:42.440 --> 3:03:44.160 falling apart is that the one thing you can do 3:03:44.320 --> 3:03:46.160 with your money is turn it into gun. 3:03:46.640 --> 3:03:49.600 Now I'm listening, and that's what stops of falling apart, right, 3:03:49.680 --> 3:03:52.160 because now I'm listening. And this is also a sort 3:03:52.200 --> 3:03:52.880 of graverism. 3:03:52.920 --> 3:03:55.440 But it's like behind every bank is a man with 3:03:55.520 --> 3:03:58.880 a gun, because the reason that this money is even 3:03:59.000 --> 3:04:02.640 sort of real is that the bank can like like 3:04:02.720 --> 3:04:05.840 the police will come get you, right, like men with 3:04:06.000 --> 3:04:08.440 guns will appear and coerce you to pay shit. 3:04:08.879 --> 3:04:12.400 Right, But what if what if instead of burger we 3:04:13.000 --> 3:04:14.120 bought gun? 3:04:15.200 --> 3:04:15.400 You know? 3:04:15.800 --> 3:04:17.960 Like this is what is broadly referred to as the 3:04:18.080 --> 3:04:21.640 social revolution. Is it is broadly considered a negative by 3:04:21.640 --> 3:04:24.200 the financial sector. It is broadly considered a positive by 3:04:24.320 --> 3:04:26.880 everyone the fuck else. Okay, that's not true. It's not 3:04:26.879 --> 3:04:28.920 consider it a positive by like, I guess the people 3:04:28.920 --> 3:04:31.600 who own regular businesses. And this is like this shit 3:04:31.680 --> 3:04:35.240 that like, you know, it was kind of less unhinged 3:04:35.320 --> 3:04:37.640 back then. But like if you go read the people 3:04:37.720 --> 3:04:39.360 who were like doing this shit in like the early 3:04:39.440 --> 3:04:42.520 nineteen hundreds, if you read the writing, it's all them 3:04:42.680 --> 3:04:44.960 being like, oh yeah, no, by the way, like a 3:04:45.000 --> 3:04:47.959 bunch of banks just like turned the entire Ottoman empire 3:04:48.000 --> 3:04:50.560 into like a debt peon, and now their entire economy 3:04:50.680 --> 3:04:53.080 is just dedicated to paying off these fucking loans. And 3:04:53.200 --> 3:04:56.440 this is like hideously fucking evil, Like they're all complaining 3:04:56.480 --> 3:04:57.640 about the same shit. 3:04:57.640 --> 3:05:00.640 And the important lesson we learned from that, The important 3:05:00.680 --> 3:05:03.280 lesson we learned from that was to do it more 3:05:03.560 --> 3:05:08.160 more oh yeah, yeah yeah, to invent increasingly more complicated 3:05:08.240 --> 3:05:09.440 ways of doing that. 3:05:10.080 --> 3:05:10.280 Yeah. 3:05:10.440 --> 3:05:13.560 And like this this is why the term third world 3:05:13.680 --> 3:05:16.840 is a slur, because because instead of being a political movement, 3:05:16.879 --> 3:05:19.120 because those the countries in the political movement that was 3:05:19.160 --> 3:05:21.920 called the Third World movement, all of their economies got 3:05:21.959 --> 3:05:25.200 fucking annihilated because they had these like loans whose interest 3:05:25.280 --> 3:05:27.880 rate could change, and the US jacked up all the 3:05:27.959 --> 3:05:31.360 interest rates and so suddenly their loans were like like 3:05:31.520 --> 3:05:33.360 the amount you had to like pay on the loans 3:05:33.600 --> 3:05:36.000 it went from like twenty percent or something to like 3:05:36.480 --> 3:05:38.720 fifty or one hundred or some shit, and you know, 3:05:38.800 --> 3:05:40.959 and like in these countries have never recovered, like Nigeria 3:05:41.040 --> 3:05:44.520 has never really economically recovered from the shit that happened 3:05:44.560 --> 3:05:46.120 to them. This this is why a whole bunch of 3:05:46.200 --> 3:05:48.400 Latin America is like this too, Like it was, like 3:05:48.520 --> 3:05:50.879 why there's so much sort of like writing systemic poverty 3:05:51.080 --> 3:05:55.520 is that the economies were entirely transformed into machines to 3:05:55.640 --> 3:05:58.320 like pay back these fucking debts taken out by these dictators. 3:05:59.160 --> 3:06:01.840 This is the whole fucking economy now. And you know, 3:06:02.040 --> 3:06:05.519 there's other shadow banks that do other kind of completely unhandshit, 3:06:05.680 --> 3:06:07.840 right And I've been focusing this week on like specifically 3:06:07.879 --> 3:06:09.520 the kind that blew up the economy in two thousand 3:06:09.520 --> 3:06:13.080 and eight, But there's another kind that's like blowing up 3:06:13.120 --> 3:06:15.480 the economy right now, which is called private credit, which 3:06:15.520 --> 3:06:18.080 is I mentioned this briefly earlier. But private credit is 3:06:18.160 --> 3:06:22.039 when these like unregulated companies that are not banks, give 3:06:22.080 --> 3:06:25.880 out unregulated loans with unknown terms to other companies and 3:06:25.959 --> 3:06:27.720 then those loans go to shit. And there's a whole 3:06:27.720 --> 3:06:29.440 bunch of ways that can blow up, including by the 3:06:29.480 --> 3:06:31.720 way these companies are funding a bunch of the AI bubble. 3:06:31.959 --> 3:06:33.520 Oh, and that's a great investment. 3:06:33.760 --> 3:06:35.840 It's great, you know, because much much like a. 3:06:35.879 --> 3:06:39.200 Mortgage, there's a real physical thing like a house involved, Right, 3:06:39.959 --> 3:06:40.959 it's not just vibes. 3:06:41.360 --> 3:06:44.400 Oh yeah, oh Molly, Molly, they those motherfuckers. I'm gonna 3:06:44.400 --> 3:06:45.640 talk about this a bit. I might have d just 3:06:45.800 --> 3:06:47.440 run on for this part of it too, just because 3:06:47.480 --> 3:06:49.720 like Ed does this all the time, but like those 3:06:49.760 --> 3:06:52.879 motherfuckers out there selling securities that are backed by fucking 3:06:53.200 --> 3:06:58.879 graphics cards, Like at least the more I can't believe 3:06:58.879 --> 3:07:02.720 I'm fucking saying this, but at least the mortgage backed securities, 3:07:03.040 --> 3:07:05.080 like there was a house you could steal to get 3:07:05.080 --> 3:07:09.720 your money back graphics cards. Ball, My all my apes are. 3:07:11.120 --> 3:07:11.360 Gone. 3:07:11.480 --> 3:07:12.520 All my apes are gone. 3:07:13.160 --> 3:07:16.760 Like there's other ones like it's it's so bad. It's 3:07:16.920 --> 3:07:22.800 just bad. But that's for another time because it is 3:07:23.120 --> 3:07:25.440 late as fuck and we are out of here. 3:07:25.520 --> 3:07:25.800 Mollie. 3:07:25.879 --> 3:07:28.720 Thank you, Thank you for sitting and enduring an hour 3:07:28.920 --> 3:07:31.280 of you knowing what a shadow bank is. 3:07:31.360 --> 3:07:34.840 Now I almost know what a bank is. I'm still 3:07:34.879 --> 3:07:36.520 working on the rest of it, but I think I'm 3:07:36.520 --> 3:07:37.160 getting closer. 3:07:37.480 --> 3:07:39.800 I believe in you. I think we've made for a 3:07:39.879 --> 3:07:40.600 progress today. 3:07:41.120 --> 3:07:41.640 I don't know. 3:07:41.920 --> 3:07:44.000 Now, now you can kind of understand what's going on. 3:07:44.160 --> 3:07:48.040 When this sting sector explodes again in like two weeks, 3:07:48.200 --> 3:07:49.880 you'll have to explain it to me again. Then I 3:07:49.920 --> 3:08:11.600 will be happy to Oh God, I hate these assholes Zoom. 3:08:11.760 --> 3:08:14.039 If you're listening to this and leaking my ship. 3:08:14.000 --> 3:08:16.240 Keep follow this in, than you keep follow this in. 3:08:16.800 --> 3:08:18.320 Keep it all in beautiful. 3:08:17.959 --> 3:08:19.240 Settings, beautiful stuff. 3:08:19.360 --> 3:08:24.640 Sufferable, it's welcome to it could happen here. Executive dysfunction, disorder, 3:08:24.760 --> 3:08:25.560 I for disorder. 3:08:26.360 --> 3:08:28.560 The weekly newscast we do that covers what's happening in 3:08:28.600 --> 3:08:30.760 the White House, the crumbling world of what it means. 3:08:30.600 --> 3:08:35.280 For you, and Sophie's simmering rage at Zoom constantly moving 3:08:35.320 --> 3:08:36.080 the recording button. 3:08:36.240 --> 3:08:39.440 Not even just Zoom, it's all the it's insufferable, all 3:08:39.520 --> 3:08:43.960 these goddamn platforms, but they're stupid AI features and moving 3:08:44.080 --> 3:08:44.920 of my settings. 3:08:44.959 --> 3:08:46.880 I sound like the oldest person in the world, but 3:08:47.200 --> 3:08:51.400 that's the record. But this, sup it, it's so annoying. 3:08:51.959 --> 3:08:54.680 Holy shit, everybody's pretty pissed about AI these days. 3:08:54.879 --> 3:09:00.080 I mean, sufferbly stupid, but stop it, stop it, And 3:09:00.160 --> 3:09:02.800 we have to use Microsoft for work, and every time 3:09:02.840 --> 3:09:05.279 I try to copy something, it asks if I want. 3:09:05.160 --> 3:09:09.280 To use Copilot. No, I never want to use copilot. 3:09:09.640 --> 3:09:13.360 Fuck off, Sophie, You're really not maximizing your productivity. 3:09:14.000 --> 3:09:18.879 Okay, this week we're covering in I CO eighteens now 3:09:19.000 --> 3:09:21.640 and no, don't do that to me. 3:09:23.120 --> 3:09:27.720 Clavicular a shit, stop it, stop it. Okay, I'm going 3:09:27.760 --> 3:09:28.920 away now to your jobs. 3:09:29.120 --> 3:09:29.920 What are our jobs? 3:09:30.040 --> 3:09:32.959 Really? You're not going to join in? Oh I'm here, 3:09:33.040 --> 3:09:34.000 I'm always here. 3:09:34.560 --> 3:09:38.800 That's Sophie Lichterman, also Mia Wong, Robert Evans, I'm Garrison Davis. 3:09:38.920 --> 3:09:39.280 That's right. 3:09:39.560 --> 3:09:42.240 This episode recovering the week of March eighteen to March 3:09:42.320 --> 3:09:46.720 twenty fifth. Speaking of AI, open ai is announced they 3:09:46.720 --> 3:09:51.280 are shutting down their AI generated video apps Sora as 3:09:51.320 --> 3:09:55.160 a results, the Disney deal has fell through. Disney's no 3:09:55.280 --> 3:09:57.680 longer going through with the one billion dollar investment and 3:09:57.920 --> 3:09:59.680 character licensing deal with open Ai. 3:10:00.040 --> 3:10:00.240 Oh no. 3:10:00.280 --> 3:10:04.080 According to the Hollywood Reporter, I know our audience is 3:10:04.120 --> 3:10:05.879 full of a lot of big Sora ads, and I'm 3:10:05.879 --> 3:10:07.199 sure this is some tough news. 3:10:07.640 --> 3:10:09.360 The Soura community is taking hits. 3:10:09.600 --> 3:10:12.680 So yeah, it's okay. You can still play Sora in 3:10:12.840 --> 3:10:15.879 Smash Ultimate. You can recover I believe in you want. 3:10:16.000 --> 3:10:17.920 There's a video game character named Sora too. 3:10:18.040 --> 3:10:20.960 Huh yeah, the key Blade. The key Blade will still 3:10:21.000 --> 3:10:21.320 be there. 3:10:21.760 --> 3:10:23.519 I didn't. I didn't get into those games. 3:10:23.680 --> 3:10:27.119 Actually lyricously, Also, it also a Disney franchise, also licensed 3:10:27.160 --> 3:10:27.640 to Disney. 3:10:27.720 --> 3:10:31.800 Yeah, great, great stuff. Well, I found this very funny 3:10:32.000 --> 3:10:35.000 in part because like, when Sora came out, there was 3:10:35.040 --> 3:10:37.200 this like burst of enthusiasm for like, soon we'll just 3:10:37.280 --> 3:10:40.800 be generating our own movies and TV. You won't need Hollywood. 3:10:41.440 --> 3:10:43.200 But then it turned out that you can't actually like 3:10:43.640 --> 3:10:46.240 do like even if you want to make stuff with Sora, 3:10:46.400 --> 3:10:48.520 like even if you wanted to include like clips of 3:10:48.560 --> 3:10:51.240 it to like help augment other films you were making. 3:10:51.280 --> 3:10:52.800 And there were a couple of filmmakers who tried to 3:10:52.879 --> 3:10:56.040 do this. You can summon critical ways where they were like, oh, well, 3:10:56.200 --> 3:10:58.640 you know, I can use like pieces of Soora generated 3:10:58.720 --> 3:11:00.760 video to like illustrate at this point I want to 3:11:00.800 --> 3:11:03.480 about AI. Well, you couldn't actually use like Sora footage 3:11:03.520 --> 3:11:06.320 in anything that you wanted to like sell to Netflix 3:11:06.480 --> 3:11:09.640 or Amazon or like whoever put in a theater, because 3:11:09.680 --> 3:11:12.800 like the terms of use basically did not allow it 3:11:13.120 --> 3:11:15.840 because of how much risk you were at of getting 3:11:16.240 --> 3:11:19.960 sued for, you know, utilizing other people's shit content other 3:11:20.040 --> 3:11:23.640 people made. Open Ai was not willing to indemnify the users. 3:11:24.000 --> 3:11:27.920 Adobe has a similar like slop ai video generation machine 3:11:27.959 --> 3:11:31.480 that does indemnify like users of the content they make, 3:11:31.560 --> 3:11:33.680 and that is still going. Yeah, so I think that's 3:11:34.000 --> 3:11:35.640 was kind of like one of the key issues here 3:11:35.720 --> 3:11:38.800 is just that, like you can't actually do anything with 3:11:39.000 --> 3:11:40.000 your Sora eclips. 3:11:40.760 --> 3:11:43.120 Yeah, I mean, this doesn't mean it's gonna lead to 3:11:43.280 --> 3:11:48.640 the end of AI generated video on social media. Lord, No, unfortunately, No, 3:11:49.240 --> 3:11:51.440 this is a movement that open air is making towards 3:11:51.520 --> 3:11:54.960 business to business sales and away from this direct to 3:11:55.040 --> 3:11:58.600 consumer application. It's still an interesting move. The fact that 3:11:59.000 --> 3:12:03.279 Disney's breaking off the deal also interesting. Its exact gramifications 3:12:03.400 --> 3:12:05.760 for open ai and like a generated video in the 3:12:05.800 --> 3:12:07.640 long run still unclear. 3:12:08.360 --> 3:12:10.240 Yeah, I also just want to mention that, like, obviously, 3:12:10.360 --> 3:12:12.160 the other reason they're doing this is that this stuff 3:12:12.240 --> 3:12:15.240 is hideously expensive, Like, yeah, a lot of money to 3:12:15.720 --> 3:12:19.240 generate this stuff onfathomable amounts of money are just being 3:12:19.320 --> 3:12:23.640 lit on fire. Listen to everything ever written by our 3:12:23.720 --> 3:12:26.400 friends and colleague ed Zytron. If you want to know 3:12:26.560 --> 3:12:29.680 how much money is being lit on fire by this bullshit? 3:12:29.840 --> 3:12:32.600 But yeah, yeah. 3:12:33.000 --> 3:12:35.800 A few other small news stories. The US Army has 3:12:35.920 --> 3:12:40.080 raised its maximum enlistment age to forty two, and the 3:12:40.200 --> 3:12:44.039 Pentagon is planning to maintain National Guard presence in Washington, 3:12:44.120 --> 3:12:48.120 d C. Through the entirety of Trump's second term. In 3:12:48.200 --> 3:12:51.720 a special election Tuesday night, the Dems flipped Trump's own 3:12:52.040 --> 3:12:55.760 state house district in Florida Palm Beach County. Trump won 3:12:55.800 --> 3:12:58.959 this district by eleven points in the twenty twenty four election. 3:12:59.320 --> 3:13:03.680 This Tuesday, Democrat Emily Gregory won by two points, nearly 3:13:03.760 --> 3:13:05.360 a fourteen point swing. 3:13:05.680 --> 3:13:07.680 Are we going to point out how he voted in that. 3:13:07.720 --> 3:13:10.920 Election vote by mail? But it's okay because the Florida 3:13:11.000 --> 3:13:12.520 system is safe and secure. 3:13:12.840 --> 3:13:13.360 Yeah huh. 3:13:14.280 --> 3:13:16.240 Also, I want to point out this is more vindication 3:13:16.440 --> 3:13:19.520 of the Meya of the Miya Blue tsunami theory that 3:13:19.600 --> 3:13:20.840 this is going to be a two thousand and eight 3:13:20.879 --> 3:13:26.120 style blowout if they're losing fucking Marl logo by two points. 3:13:28.560 --> 3:13:31.520 Yeah, I try not to predict how the fucking bigger 3:13:31.560 --> 3:13:34.600 elections are going to go anymore. Yeah, just because Yeah, 3:13:34.680 --> 3:13:37.240 it's it's so hard. But isn't that you wouldn't call 3:13:37.240 --> 3:13:38.760 it a good sign for the Republicans. 3:13:38.920 --> 3:13:40.480 This is not a good sign for Republicans. 3:13:40.600 --> 3:13:44.080 Even though only like thirty three thousand people voted in 3:13:44.120 --> 3:13:46.480 this election, it is still interesting data. 3:13:46.879 --> 3:13:49.560 Yeah, you would think again that he would he would 3:13:49.560 --> 3:13:52.360 have more of a lock on his backyard. But also 3:13:52.440 --> 3:13:54.240 why would he have thought about it? Like I go 3:13:54.360 --> 3:13:55.760 back and forth and people are like, well, if they 3:13:55.800 --> 3:13:57.520 were going to steal an election, wouldn't they have done 3:13:57.520 --> 3:13:59.840 the one in mar Alago? Probably not, Nah, wouldn't the 3:13:59.840 --> 3:14:01.480 thought to do it? Probably would have figured they don't 3:14:01.520 --> 3:14:01.720 need to. 3:14:02.480 --> 3:14:05.600 The FBI is investigating former director of the National counter 3:14:05.800 --> 3:14:09.640 Terrorism Center Joe Kent for allegedly leaking class haided information, 3:14:10.200 --> 3:14:13.640 and this investigation predates his resignation last week. In an 3:14:13.680 --> 3:14:17.440 interview with Tucker Carlson last week, Kent implied Israel may 3:14:17.520 --> 3:14:20.160 have been involved in the killing of Charlie Kirk and 3:14:20.280 --> 3:14:25.880 that the FBI stopped Kent's investigation into this quote unquote linkage. 3:14:25.600 --> 3:14:32.080 Oh my Jesus, right, God, Yeah, man, Israel killed Charlie Kirk. 3:14:32.640 --> 3:14:34.520 That's why there haven't been any other people on the 3:14:34.600 --> 3:14:38.040 right who have complained about Trump's aiding and the betting 3:14:38.200 --> 3:14:41.360 Israeli war crimes. Like what, No other conservatives have been 3:14:41.400 --> 3:14:43.640 pissed about the invasion of Iran. Just Charlie Kirk. 3:14:44.120 --> 3:14:47.400 He was the lone anti semi He was the only one. 3:14:47.920 --> 3:14:54.440 Charlie Kirk was the Golden dome. Sly Trump, Yeah, no, yeah, 3:14:55.760 --> 3:15:01.680 silly idea for our first big story. Let's talk about airports, 3:15:01.840 --> 3:15:07.440 Everyone's favorite way to spend five to who knows, however impossible? 3:15:07.440 --> 3:15:11.280 How many hours? Yeah? An impossible avout? Oh god, no 3:15:11.360 --> 3:15:13.480 way to know. DHS has been shut. 3:15:13.320 --> 3:15:15.440 Down for over a month now, and more than four 3:15:15.600 --> 3:15:18.480 hundred TIS agents have quit after being left without pay, 3:15:18.840 --> 3:15:22.000 while ICE agents continued to receive paychecks through last year's 3:15:22.080 --> 3:15:26.840 Big Beautiful Bill. This past weekend, Trump announced ICE would 3:15:26.879 --> 3:15:31.039 be deployed to airports to assist TSA during the shutdown. 3:15:31.640 --> 3:15:34.000 By Monday morning, ICE agents have been sent to airports 3:15:34.040 --> 3:15:39.680 in Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston, Fort Myers, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, 3:15:39.800 --> 3:15:44.400 San Juan, Newark, and the two New York airports. Interestingly, 3:15:45.000 --> 3:15:48.880 come Monday, when ICE was spotted they were not wearing masks, 3:15:49.120 --> 3:15:52.200 which seems to go against agency claims that masks are 3:15:52.280 --> 3:15:56.879 for protecting agents against so called dosing. That morning, Trump 3:15:57.120 --> 3:16:00.640 truth to quote, I'm a big proponent of ice wearing 3:16:00.720 --> 3:16:03.039 masks as they search for and are forced to deal 3:16:03.080 --> 3:16:04.240 with hardened criminals. 3:16:04.640 --> 3:16:08.320 I would greatly appreciate. However, no masks in all caps. 3:16:08.360 --> 3:16:11.320 When helping our country out of the Democrat caused mess 3:16:11.400 --> 3:16:12.400 at the airports, etc. 3:16:13.040 --> 3:16:13.360 Thank you. 3:16:14.160 --> 3:16:18.120 Later on Monday, Trump was asked whose idea it was 3:16:18.280 --> 3:16:22.320 to send ice to airports, and he had this fascinating response. 3:16:23.160 --> 3:16:24.400 Mine, that was mine. 3:16:25.360 --> 3:16:26.440 That was like the paper clip. 3:16:26.520 --> 3:16:28.720 You know the story of the paper clip. One hundred 3:16:28.720 --> 3:16:32.080 and eighty two years ago. A man discovered the paper clip. 3:16:32.760 --> 3:16:35.480 It was so simple, and everybody that looked at it 3:16:35.480 --> 3:16:36.800 and say, why didn't I think of that? 3:16:37.760 --> 3:16:38.959 Ice was my idea. 3:16:39.640 --> 3:16:42.360 I called. First person I called was Tom Homan. I said, 3:16:42.400 --> 3:16:44.720 what do you think? He said, I think it's great. 3:16:45.320 --> 3:16:47.240 Then I saw it today there was some masks so 3:16:47.320 --> 3:16:49.560 and I didn't think the masks were proper. I put 3:16:49.600 --> 3:16:52.080 out a statement and I asked them would it be 3:16:52.200 --> 3:16:55.039 possible to take off the mask, because they should wear 3:16:55.120 --> 3:16:57.640 a mask when they're dealing with the murderers and the 3:16:57.720 --> 3:16:59.400 thugs left and let into our guns. 3:17:00.600 --> 3:17:04.640 Discovered the paper cliff, discovered the paper clip. Every now 3:17:04.640 --> 3:17:06.720 and then you get a little hint about his media diet. 3:17:06.760 --> 3:17:09.960 It is just fascinating discover the paper paper clip. It's 3:17:09.959 --> 3:17:11.640 one of the most beautiful things I've ever heard. 3:17:11.800 --> 3:17:13.000 It's it's insane. 3:17:13.440 --> 3:17:15.720 Somebody told them a little story about like, well, you 3:17:15.760 --> 3:17:17.840 know the person who vented the paper clip, and Trump 3:17:17.959 --> 3:17:18.760 just kind of ran with it. 3:17:19.000 --> 3:17:21.640 That's got to be it, right, Yeah, It's like it's 3:17:21.640 --> 3:17:23.920 like the paper clip exists as like as like a 3:17:24.000 --> 3:17:25.520 platonic form, like like. 3:17:25.640 --> 3:17:28.320 Existing, and the existing as like as like a piece 3:17:28.360 --> 3:17:28.840 of truth. 3:17:28.959 --> 3:17:31.320 Someone chiseled it out of a piece of granite, the 3:17:31.400 --> 3:17:34.080 first paper cliff and was like, yes, I've done it. 3:17:35.000 --> 3:17:37.280 It's like forty case shit. Where Like the theory is 3:17:37.320 --> 3:17:39.720 that all technology has already been invented. So if you 3:17:39.840 --> 3:17:42.720 invented technology or discovering it, yes, the dark Age of 3:17:42.800 --> 3:17:45.560 technology gave us the paper clip, and it is actually 3:17:45.760 --> 3:17:48.360 heresy to invent a new kind of paper clip or 3:17:48.400 --> 3:17:50.400 either way to attach papers together. 3:17:50.840 --> 3:17:55.440 Now in less funny news, also on Monday, Trump confirmed 3:17:55.440 --> 3:17:58.240 that ice would be arresting people at airports. 3:17:59.040 --> 3:18:00.600 We see ICE arresting legal migration. 3:18:00.760 --> 3:18:04.800 Yeah. Yeah, that's why the Democrats are going crazy because 3:18:04.959 --> 3:18:08.360 they've allowed by what they did and hold up. We 3:18:08.520 --> 3:18:12.879 put ICE who are a very high level I mean, 3:18:12.959 --> 3:18:15.600 they really are a high level group of people, and 3:18:15.760 --> 3:18:19.000 they love it because they're able to now arrest illegals 3:18:19.240 --> 3:18:23.000 as they come into the country that's. 3:18:22.360 --> 3:18:25.680 Very fertile territory. But that's not why they're there. They're 3:18:25.720 --> 3:18:26.720 really there to help. 3:18:26.680 --> 3:18:28.080 Uh huh, there to help. 3:18:28.560 --> 3:18:31.920 Most people who are documented do not illegally enter the 3:18:32.000 --> 3:18:33.600 country through airports. 3:18:33.760 --> 3:18:34.560 That would be silly. 3:18:35.080 --> 3:18:38.039 They overstay a visa that so they lose their legal presence. 3:18:38.920 --> 3:18:42.560 On Fox News, Tom Homan claimed that ICE was helping 3:18:42.920 --> 3:18:47.439 to reduce long lines at airports as well as arrest criminals. 3:18:47.959 --> 3:18:51.279 And we're filling the holes. The weight lines already dropped. 3:18:51.360 --> 3:18:54.560 Plus we're doing a security function at the airports. We're 3:18:54.560 --> 3:18:56.640 going to arrest criminals going to the airport. We're going 3:18:56.680 --> 3:19:01.240 to look for human trafficking, sex trafficking, money, you know, money, 3:19:01.280 --> 3:19:03.720 small run money smuggling. 3:19:04.320 --> 3:19:06.560 Yeah, they're they're just gonna steal cash off of people 3:19:06.720 --> 3:19:09.320 at the airport. Yeah, Yeah, Now, TSA has done that 3:19:09.560 --> 3:19:13.000 for a while off and on, so this isn't entirely new. 3:19:13.040 --> 3:19:14.640 But they're just gonna take money from people. 3:19:15.720 --> 3:19:19.520 By Tuesday evening lines at atl the airport in Atlanta, 3:19:19.640 --> 3:19:22.520 the most busy airport in the world, has the most 3:19:22.560 --> 3:19:26.200 amount of travel to and from. By Tuesday evening lines 3:19:26.240 --> 3:19:29.920 were back down, but by Wednesday morning, a friend of 3:19:29.959 --> 3:19:33.120 mine took three hours to get through TSA. 3:19:33.520 --> 3:19:36.240 God, so what exactly is ICE doing? 3:19:37.080 --> 3:19:41.199 Mostly standing behind TSA at security checkpoints, standing behind people 3:19:41.480 --> 3:19:46.720 still doing the regular TSA work, occasionally directing pedestrian traffic, 3:19:46.879 --> 3:19:50.360 and maybe at most yelling at people to empty their pockets. 3:19:50.680 --> 3:19:54.080 Hey, they're keeping the cookie clicker economy going. The mobile 3:19:54.080 --> 3:19:57.600 app economy is benefiting enormously for all these people standing 3:19:57.640 --> 3:19:58.480 around their phones. 3:19:59.160 --> 3:20:01.760 ICE agents cannot actually do the job of TSA since 3:20:01.760 --> 3:20:04.720 they do not have the training nor the certification required 3:20:04.760 --> 3:20:07.400 to do so. Nope, So ICE is largely just acting 3:20:07.440 --> 3:20:11.119 as auxiliary staff and security for the airport. 3:20:11.840 --> 3:20:13.720 But regular airport. 3:20:13.440 --> 3:20:16.440 Staff aren't suffering from the financial strain of the shutdown 3:20:16.560 --> 3:20:20.880 because they're still getting paid. Aaron Barker, the president of 3:20:20.920 --> 3:20:24.280 the TSA union Local five five, four, which covers airports 3:20:24.320 --> 3:20:28.280 in Georgia like atl denied that ice contributed to short 3:20:28.360 --> 3:20:32.520 lines on Tuesday compared to the weekend, noting that Tuesday 3:20:32.680 --> 3:20:34.720 is a non peak travel day. 3:20:35.040 --> 3:20:37.640 Yeah, of course it's quote, it has. 3:20:37.640 --> 3:20:40.720 Nothing to do with ice presence being there. The ICE 3:20:40.800 --> 3:20:44.240 officers in Atlanta are not doing any screening functions. They 3:20:44.280 --> 3:20:47.160 are literally standing behind the officers while they're checking documents 3:20:47.320 --> 3:20:51.039 and screening passengers or walking the que line that cascades 3:20:51.120 --> 3:20:51.959 through the airport. 3:20:52.240 --> 3:20:52.720 Un quote. 3:20:53.959 --> 3:20:57.280 New York and New Jersey TSA union president Heydrich Thomas 3:20:57.480 --> 3:20:59.879 said during a press conference, quote, you want to bring 3:21:00.040 --> 3:21:02.960 a tactical force into an environment where you're required to 3:21:03.000 --> 3:21:06.760 have customer service and skill set, a mindset where you 3:21:06.920 --> 3:21:09.240 know what you're doing, how to identify something that might 3:21:09.280 --> 3:21:09.879 be suspicious. 3:21:10.280 --> 3:21:13.000 They don't have that training unquote now, and. 3:21:13.040 --> 3:21:16.320 The TSA doesn't really have that training. Let's be clear, No, no, 3:21:16.520 --> 3:21:18.760 TSA does not actually a TSA doesn't know what they're 3:21:18.800 --> 3:21:21.200 doing at all. There was never any chance of this 3:21:21.360 --> 3:21:23.680 helping anything. This is only going to be more of 3:21:23.720 --> 3:21:25.680 a pain in the ass for people at airports, which 3:21:25.800 --> 3:21:27.560 already are unpleasant to be at. 3:21:28.560 --> 3:21:33.000 Now on Monday, there was viral video of plane clothes 3:21:33.080 --> 3:21:38.080 agents wrestling a woman into handcuffs at the San Francisco Airport. 3:21:39.080 --> 3:21:43.600 This incident actually took place Sunday night. Angelina Lopez Jimenez 3:21:43.920 --> 3:21:46.240 and her nine year old daughter were supposed to fly 3:21:46.320 --> 3:21:49.359 to Miami to visit a relative. Instead, she was detained 3:21:49.360 --> 3:21:51.959 by ICE agents and sent to an airport holding room, 3:21:52.080 --> 3:21:56.320 according to The New York Times, On Friday, TSA agents 3:21:56.640 --> 3:21:59.800 flagged her name on an upcoming passenger list and in 3:22:00.120 --> 3:22:04.640 formed ICE that Lopez Jimenez was scheduled to fly from 3:22:04.720 --> 3:22:08.640 Miami on Sunday. Lopez Semenez and her daughter were detained 3:22:08.680 --> 3:22:11.920 by border patrol back in twenty eighteen, but were released 3:22:11.959 --> 3:22:15.440 with a notice to attend court for removal proceedings. Eventually, 3:22:15.520 --> 3:22:18.200 she stopped showing up for appointments and her deportation was 3:22:18.320 --> 3:22:21.800 ordered in twenty nineteen. This weekend, at around nine to 3:22:21.920 --> 3:22:26.920 thirty pm Sunday night, two plane clothes agents approached Lopez 3:22:27.000 --> 3:22:30.600 Jimenez in Terminal three in San Francisco, and she then 3:22:30.720 --> 3:22:33.960 handed over her two Guatemalan passports, one for her and 3:22:34.080 --> 3:22:36.760 the other for her daughter. While being led to the 3:22:36.840 --> 3:22:39.600 international terminal, she tried to run away, prompting the agents 3:22:39.640 --> 3:22:43.120 to tackle her to the ground. On Tuesday, her and 3:22:43.280 --> 3:22:46.160 her daughter were sent to Guatemala. The New York Times 3:22:46.200 --> 3:22:49.480 says that this operation was unrelated to the Ice airport 3:22:49.560 --> 3:22:55.160 deployment ordered by Trump. Also on Sunday night, Republican Senate 3:22:55.200 --> 3:22:58.720 majority leader John Thune told Trump that the Senate had 3:22:58.760 --> 3:23:02.240 reached a deal to fund TSA and the rest of DHS, 3:23:02.520 --> 3:23:05.480 except for Ice, which would be handled later in a 3:23:05.520 --> 3:23:10.080 reconciliation bill, but Trump instructed Thune to kill the deal. 3:23:10.680 --> 3:23:14.040 Later that night, Trump truthed, I don't think that we 3:23:14.080 --> 3:23:17.760 should make any deal with crazy country destroying radical left 3:23:17.800 --> 3:23:21.920 Democrats unless and until they vote with Republicans to pass 3:23:22.120 --> 3:23:26.600 the Save America Act, that is, the voting Restriction Act, 3:23:26.640 --> 3:23:30.600 which includes voter ID with picture proof of citizenship to vote, 3:23:30.840 --> 3:23:34.440 heavily restricting mail in voting, requiring paper ballots, as well 3:23:34.520 --> 3:23:38.599 as quote no men in women's sports and no transgender 3:23:38.760 --> 3:23:43.480 mutilation of our precious children unquote. Senator Ted Cruz and 3:23:43.720 --> 3:23:47.840 John Kennedy are continuing to work on this plan that 3:23:48.040 --> 3:23:52.480 Thune told Trump about to reopen DHS sans Ice. On 3:23:52.560 --> 3:23:56.039 Tuesday morning, Kennedy said on Fox News that Thune told 3:23:56.120 --> 3:23:59.480 him the president is reconsidering the option and quote unquote 3:23:59.640 --> 3:24:02.800 may on board. Later that day, Trump was asked if 3:24:02.800 --> 3:24:06.120 he supports what appears to be the quote unquote emerging 3:24:06.200 --> 3:24:10.600 agreement coming out of the Senate reopen DHS. Trump replied, quote, 3:24:10.959 --> 3:24:12.680 I'm going to look at it. We're going to take 3:24:12.680 --> 3:24:15.160 a good, hard look at it. I want to support Republicans, 3:24:15.200 --> 3:24:17.360 and sometimes it's awfully hard to get votes when you 3:24:17.440 --> 3:24:20.400 have Democrats that don't want to have voter id unquote. 3:24:21.040 --> 3:24:23.440 Trump then went on to discuss the same act and 3:24:23.600 --> 3:24:26.920 how he added no men in women's sports quote unquote, 3:24:27.240 --> 3:24:31.200 because it's nearly a quote unquote ninety nine to one issue. 3:24:32.280 --> 3:24:34.240 It's time for our first break, and we will return 3:24:34.440 --> 3:24:35.400 with more news. 3:24:47.200 --> 3:24:51.440 We're back, So let's talk about the war that's been 3:24:51.480 --> 3:24:54.160 going on for like a month at this point in time. 3:24:54.959 --> 3:24:57.560 You know, as we're kind of sitting here right now, 3:24:57.879 --> 3:25:02.359 we've all seen gas prices leap up substantially. In California, 3:25:02.360 --> 3:25:04.560 there's samarias where you're paying like seven to fifty a gallon. 3:25:04.680 --> 3:25:07.640 Good lord, it's gone by about a dollar where I live. 3:25:08.080 --> 3:25:10.360 It looks fairly credible. There was a lot of fear 3:25:10.400 --> 3:25:11.960 that like kind of the worst case scenario would be 3:25:12.000 --> 3:25:14.000 that oil gets anywhere near like two hundred dollars a 3:25:14.040 --> 3:25:16.240 gallon or two hundred dollars a barrel from me a 3:25:16.320 --> 3:25:19.960 gallin Sorry, that would be that'd be real bad. But 3:25:20.200 --> 3:25:24.160 what we're looking at right now, there's credible reason to 3:25:24.240 --> 3:25:26.840 expect that like this stuff won't peak any lower than 3:25:26.840 --> 3:25:28.920 about one hundred and seventy five bucks a barrel, which 3:25:29.000 --> 3:25:32.000 is pretty catastrophic for the US economy and the global 3:25:32.080 --> 3:25:35.480 economy as a whole. Night it's bad, and Trump has been, 3:25:35.640 --> 3:25:38.119 i think, increasingly making it clear that he is looking 3:25:38.200 --> 3:25:40.800 for an off ramp. There's a lot of reporting from 3:25:40.840 --> 3:25:43.360 inside the administration that suggests they did not think things 3:25:43.400 --> 3:25:45.640 would still be going on this long, That they thought 3:25:45.680 --> 3:25:49.520 that after the first rank of Iranian leaders were kind 3:25:49.560 --> 3:25:52.320 of wiped out, the guys behind them would be willing 3:25:52.360 --> 3:25:55.360 to play ball with the administration in exchange for staying 3:25:55.440 --> 3:25:57.320 in power, which is more or less the offer that 3:25:57.440 --> 3:26:03.160 we gave Delsi Rodriguez in Venezuela and the Venezuelan regime. 3:26:03.280 --> 3:26:06.280 The people who kind of were behind Maduro were willing 3:26:06.360 --> 3:26:08.760 to take, but Iran is a very different country, and 3:26:08.840 --> 3:26:10.520 they're in a very different situation, and they have a 3:26:10.640 --> 3:26:13.359 very different military, and they have a very different physical 3:26:13.440 --> 3:26:16.520 strategic situation than Venezuela does than any other country that 3:26:16.600 --> 3:26:19.160 the United States has attempted to use these kind of 3:26:19.320 --> 3:26:24.080 like violent bullying tactics on and so far, on does 3:26:24.120 --> 3:26:27.400 not seem to be interested in coming to the table. 3:26:27.520 --> 3:26:30.600 Trump has made a couple of statements about how we're 3:26:30.640 --> 3:26:33.039 working on getting out of this. You know, we've presented 3:26:33.080 --> 3:26:36.760 an option to the Iranian government that would basically allow 3:26:36.800 --> 3:26:38.879 them to get rid of all of the sanctions if 3:26:38.879 --> 3:26:42.000 they just promised to stop enriching uranium and to handover 3:26:42.120 --> 3:26:44.200 everything that they do have and to never try to 3:26:44.240 --> 3:26:46.320 get a new I think it's pretty clear they're not 3:26:46.600 --> 3:26:48.960 willing to make that promise anymore. 3:26:49.040 --> 3:26:49.560 I think they were. 3:26:49.600 --> 3:26:52.800 I mean, they certainly were earlier five years ago. But 3:26:53.200 --> 3:26:55.120 at the time in which you've repeatedly killed all the 3:26:55.240 --> 3:26:57.800 people running the country, you've kind of only made it 3:26:57.920 --> 3:27:01.160 clear that they need noops. And that's the waiting game 3:27:01.200 --> 3:27:04.000 that we find ourselves kind of currently locked in here 3:27:04.760 --> 3:27:07.199 is Iran has shut down the straight of hornm moves. 3:27:07.280 --> 3:27:09.760 They've at least the last I checked, I think, hit 3:27:10.000 --> 3:27:13.360 seventeen ships heading through the straight or in the straight, 3:27:13.959 --> 3:27:16.480 and that's caused the vast majority of traffic that would 3:27:16.480 --> 3:27:19.560 be crossing through to hold back, and so you've got 3:27:19.680 --> 3:27:23.119 this massive backlog of craft just kind of waiting because 3:27:23.160 --> 3:27:26.160 they can't go through. Trump previously had made some big 3:27:26.200 --> 3:27:29.200 statements about while the US Navy will escort them through 3:27:29.400 --> 3:27:33.680 and will get like a global coalition of naval forces 3:27:33.800 --> 3:27:38.000 to escort them through. That hasn't come to pass. For 3:27:38.080 --> 3:27:42.320 one thing, very few governments with navies seem interested in 3:27:42.520 --> 3:27:45.640 sending sizeable naval forces to the strait of horror moves. 3:27:45.480 --> 3:27:45.760 To do this. 3:27:46.480 --> 3:27:48.520 And for the other thing, that's not an easy thing 3:27:48.600 --> 3:27:51.959 to do. It may seem like it because it would 3:27:51.959 --> 3:27:54.520 be a real crazy thing to all of us listening 3:27:54.680 --> 3:27:58.040 if a single US naval vessel were destroyed in combat, 3:27:58.280 --> 3:28:00.640 right like the last time anything that happened with the 3:28:00.720 --> 3:28:02.680 USS coal which was hit while it was in dock 3:28:02.800 --> 3:28:05.119 by a suicide bomb. The idea of like a destroyer 3:28:05.200 --> 3:28:09.440 getting sunk would be deeply upsetting to the American people, 3:28:09.560 --> 3:28:11.800 I think probably, and like deeply it would be a 3:28:11.879 --> 3:28:14.720 huge problem for let alone if an aircraft carrier were 3:28:14.760 --> 3:28:18.960 to take serious damage, these would be serious problems for 3:28:19.120 --> 3:28:23.680 the administration. The problem is that you can't escort fuel 3:28:23.760 --> 3:28:28.320 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz without exposing them and 3:28:28.440 --> 3:28:33.119 the ships escorting them to direct fire. Geographically, you've probably 3:28:33.160 --> 3:28:35.240 heard a lot about carg Island recently, which is this 3:28:35.360 --> 3:28:37.400 island that, as we talked about in a previous episode, 3:28:37.720 --> 3:28:42.039 a lot of Iran's oil infrastructures on because the coast 3:28:42.360 --> 3:28:44.960 of Iran is not mostly not deep water, and you 3:28:45.040 --> 3:28:48.040 need very deep water for the boats that transport huge 3:28:48.080 --> 3:28:50.480 amounts of crude oil. These are massive vessels. These are 3:28:50.480 --> 3:28:52.520 some of the largest machines human beings have ever built 3:28:52.520 --> 3:28:54.400 of any kind. Yeah, these are the size of skyscrapers, 3:28:54.840 --> 3:28:58.480 Like these are skyscrapers on their side. They are enormous boats. 3:28:58.560 --> 3:29:00.680 It is when people were suggested, what if we just 3:29:00.760 --> 3:29:02.920 drive the oil? You have no idea how big these 3:29:02.959 --> 3:29:04.720 fucking boats are and how much oil it takes to 3:29:04.800 --> 3:29:08.280 keep the world running. So you have a very narrow 3:29:08.640 --> 3:29:11.120 waterway through most of this, so it's not like it 3:29:11.320 --> 3:29:14.160 is in other waterways or in the broader ocean where 3:29:14.200 --> 3:29:17.000 people have a lot of roots they can take. Big 3:29:17.080 --> 3:29:20.320 ships can only take one very well known path through 3:29:20.360 --> 3:29:23.760 the strait, right, and it's really easy to mine that path. 3:29:24.240 --> 3:29:27.600 If you've got naval vessels escorting those big boats, then 3:29:27.600 --> 3:29:30.480 you've got us naval vessels that are exposing themselves to 3:29:30.680 --> 3:29:33.560 direct fire from the mountains and hills in a way 3:29:33.600 --> 3:29:36.040 that is impossible to stop them from getting shot at, 3:29:36.120 --> 3:29:39.160 from having drones flung at them. And we have a 3:29:39.280 --> 3:29:41.680 pretty good understanding of what we can stop and what 3:29:41.800 --> 3:29:44.840 we can't stop. And based on everything that's been happening, 3:29:44.920 --> 3:29:46.920 my suspicion is that Trump has been getting told by 3:29:46.959 --> 3:29:50.640 his officers, we can't guarantee we won't lose sailors and 3:29:50.760 --> 3:29:53.880 we won't lose ships if we do this, because you 3:29:54.000 --> 3:29:57.480 are sending them through the chokiest of choke points, and 3:29:57.600 --> 3:30:01.480 Iran has spent fifty years preparing to shit at naval 3:30:01.560 --> 3:30:05.600 vessels escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormus. There's 3:30:05.680 --> 3:30:07.480 no guarantee it's not going to be a blood bath. 3:30:07.680 --> 3:30:10.240 So that's why the administration is looking at stuff like 3:30:10.400 --> 3:30:12.400 what should be we sending in marines, and we have 3:30:12.720 --> 3:30:15.720 marines that are moving into the area. There's been a 3:30:15.760 --> 3:30:18.800 lot of talk about having them seize islands in the Strait, 3:30:19.440 --> 3:30:22.800 potentially even carg Island. The problem with that is, obviously 3:30:22.920 --> 3:30:26.000 Iran has to deal with the bottleneck of we need 3:30:26.080 --> 3:30:29.320 this big island with its deep harbors, otherwise we can't 3:30:29.360 --> 3:30:32.800 get our oil out. But if the US takes that island, 3:30:33.360 --> 3:30:36.160 it's in the middle of a bunch of shit Iran controls, 3:30:36.240 --> 3:30:39.560 and they can fling explosives at the forces who take 3:30:39.640 --> 3:30:42.920 that island all fucking day long. It is a very 3:30:43.080 --> 3:30:45.640 bad position to be in. If you're the Marines. I 3:30:45.680 --> 3:30:47.680 don't care how well trained you are, I don't care 3:30:47.680 --> 3:30:50.560 how much support you have. That is a bad position 3:30:50.760 --> 3:30:53.680 to be in. And any military leader who has been 3:30:53.800 --> 3:30:56.800 under fire is trying very hard right now to let 3:30:56.840 --> 3:30:59.680 Trump know this will not be a low casualty endeavor. 3:30:59.840 --> 3:31:02.640 It will not be an easy endeavor, and you will 3:31:02.720 --> 3:31:05.760 not wind up just controlling this island and being able 3:31:05.800 --> 3:31:08.040 to dictate things to Iran. You will wind up having 3:31:08.320 --> 3:31:13.600 potentially thousands of your boys held captive by Iranian forces 3:31:13.840 --> 3:31:16.680 that surround them and flink explosives at them all day long. 3:31:16.720 --> 3:31:17.880 It's a bad position to be in. 3:31:18.600 --> 3:31:20.280 Yeah, and this and this is I think part of 3:31:20.480 --> 3:31:23.080 like the issue with with the Trump administration's policy here 3:31:23.160 --> 3:31:25.720 is like Trump himself and the people around him just 3:31:25.760 --> 3:31:27.920 seem to have been treating the Iranian army as not 3:31:28.120 --> 3:31:31.000 a real armist and it is no, this is this 3:31:31.120 --> 3:31:32.800 is an actual they know what they're doing, Like this 3:31:32.920 --> 3:31:34.920 is this is not the Venezuelan army, Like this is 3:31:34.959 --> 3:31:38.880 an actual army. Yeah, Like you can't do this ship. 3:31:39.040 --> 3:31:40.920 There's a lot of guys left to have a lot 3:31:40.959 --> 3:31:43.800 of experience in it preparing for this exact war for 3:31:43.879 --> 3:31:44.840 a very long time. 3:31:45.480 --> 3:31:49.040 Yeah, and who are ideologically motivated to not have the 3:31:49.240 --> 3:31:54.480 US like invade their country. The issues here with the 3:31:54.520 --> 3:31:57.120 fact that there's there's no good way to open the 3:31:57.240 --> 3:31:59.000 straight I think it's been dictating a lot of what 3:31:59.040 --> 3:32:02.280 Trump's been doing with his newgotiations, and I've started calling 3:32:02.360 --> 3:32:05.280 them like market negotiations because if you look at whenever 3:32:05.480 --> 3:32:08.680 Trump releases a statement, So on Monday, for example, he 3:32:08.720 --> 3:32:11.640 released the thing saying like, ah, we've entered like peace negotiations. 3:32:12.520 --> 3:32:15.600 And that was Monday morning, as the markets were opening 3:32:15.720 --> 3:32:17.640 from a very panicky weekend where people were it was 3:32:17.640 --> 3:32:19.440 sort of setting in that oil prices were going to 3:32:19.480 --> 3:32:22.640 be increasing and whenever Trump does one of these speeches 3:32:22.640 --> 3:32:24.400 where he says, oh, well, we're gonna we're going to 3:32:24.440 --> 3:32:26.080 find some way to open the straight or he does 3:32:26.760 --> 3:32:28.880 these like peace off like he sends this piece deal 3:32:28.920 --> 3:32:30.480 to a Ron, which we don't know the details of. 3:32:31.400 --> 3:32:33.120 There was like a reported leak of it in the 3:32:33.200 --> 3:32:36.200 Israeli media, but we don't know exactly what's in it. 3:32:36.480 --> 3:32:39.600 From that Israeli leak, it didn't seem to be a 3:32:40.120 --> 3:32:41.440 I mean, it didn't seem to be something that the 3:32:41.480 --> 3:32:43.320 government would accept, right. But the reason he's doing it 3:32:43.520 --> 3:32:45.800 is because he's trying to calm the markets down on 3:32:45.920 --> 3:32:47.760 a sort of on a sort of day by day basis. 3:32:48.680 --> 3:32:50.400 And part of it also was that there was this 3:32:50.480 --> 3:32:53.800 whole panic that Trump had been threatening early this week 3:32:53.920 --> 3:32:56.959 to start doing all of these bombing campaigns against Iranian 3:32:57.240 --> 3:33:01.200 like civilian power facilities and supposedly Onzi billion power facilities too, 3:33:01.600 --> 3:33:02.920 and then on Monday he was like, no, no, no, 3:33:02.959 --> 3:33:04.840 we're not actually doing that. Actually, we're doing peace talks. 3:33:04.879 --> 3:33:07.560 We're pushing this off for five days. And this is 3:33:08.000 --> 3:33:11.120 again market manipulation stuff, right, because he. 3:33:11.160 --> 3:33:14.280 Walked only we're only at war during the weekend when 3:33:14.360 --> 3:33:15.520 the markets are closed. 3:33:16.080 --> 3:33:18.400 So so this is what these negotiations are, right, and 3:33:18.600 --> 3:33:22.040 that's why and Ron immediately like it goes like no, 3:33:22.480 --> 3:33:24.960 like we're not, We're not in negotiations, and then released 3:33:25.440 --> 3:33:27.880 their own five point plan to end the war, which 3:33:27.920 --> 3:33:29.840 the US would pay war damages. And they've been really 3:33:29.879 --> 3:33:32.000 consistent about this, which the US would pay war damages 3:33:32.040 --> 3:33:34.800 and reparations. And then this one. And also you know, 3:33:34.840 --> 3:33:36.760 there was a whole thing about obviously like the US 3:33:36.800 --> 3:33:39.000 stopping the war, they're being the current measures in place 3:33:39.040 --> 3:33:41.360 to keep the US and doing it again. They want 3:33:41.440 --> 3:33:44.040 the US to have its regional proxies stand down, which 3:33:44.080 --> 3:33:46.960 would also presumably end the other major thing that's going 3:33:47.000 --> 3:33:50.000 on in this war, which is just Israel ethnically cleansing 3:33:50.040 --> 3:33:52.240 this south to Lebanon. We just we just released an 3:33:52.240 --> 3:33:53.640 episode about this. It's very good. 3:33:54.200 --> 3:33:55.880 Yeah, make a defensive barrier. 3:33:56.560 --> 3:33:56.800 Yeah. 3:33:57.160 --> 3:33:58.760 And the ever, the last part about this, and this 3:33:58.840 --> 3:34:00.560 is the part that I that I I think is 3:34:01.320 --> 3:34:04.520 the real kind of clincher here, is that it would 3:34:04.560 --> 3:34:07.600 give Iran control over the straight oh hormeuse, which is 3:34:07.720 --> 3:34:10.240 a real problem for any kind of American negotiation because 3:34:10.640 --> 3:34:13.200 this was always a thing that the Iran government never did, right, 3:34:13.280 --> 3:34:15.560 They had the military capacity to hold the straight. The 3:34:15.640 --> 3:34:17.520 reason they didn't do it was that it would start 3:34:17.560 --> 3:34:19.600 a war. But now you've started the war, and now 3:34:19.959 --> 3:34:22.400 you've opened Pandora's box, and you can't put the fact 3:34:22.400 --> 3:34:24.720 that they can do this militarily back into the box. 3:34:25.000 --> 3:34:25.160 Yeah. 3:34:25.240 --> 3:34:26.800 Right, So now they're just being like, fuck it, you 3:34:26.879 --> 3:34:30.040 guys can't actually defeat us militarily before the entire world 3:34:30.040 --> 3:34:33.360 economy collapses, Like fuck it, give us the straight now. 3:34:33.760 --> 3:34:35.680 I do want to mention something about some of the 3:34:36.200 --> 3:34:40.240 oil tankers, which is that, Okay, the whole situation is 3:34:40.360 --> 3:34:42.800 very murky, but Iran has been I mean, obviously it's 3:34:42.800 --> 3:34:45.320 been allowing its own tankers to go through, which is 3:34:45.360 --> 3:34:48.360 not a huge amount of oil, but it's some We 3:34:48.520 --> 3:34:52.720 got a reported case. The statements on this were released 3:34:52.840 --> 3:34:56.040 by the Thai governments and also a Thai oil company 3:34:56.800 --> 3:35:02.039 where the Thai basically foreign minutes like called the Iranian 3:35:02.080 --> 3:35:04.040 government and said, hey, we have an oil taker here 3:35:04.040 --> 3:35:05.840 where you let it through, and they went yeah, sure. 3:35:06.600 --> 3:35:10.320 So there seems to be some kind of process by 3:35:10.400 --> 3:35:13.640 which countries can do some kind of negotiation with the 3:35:13.720 --> 3:35:17.080 running government and be let through. What exactly the look 3:35:17.120 --> 3:35:19.640 that looks like in the details of it are really unclear. 3:35:19.720 --> 3:35:21.120 We don't know if this is a pattern or if 3:35:21.120 --> 3:35:23.120 they were just like, yeah, sure whatever, Thailand, you can 3:35:23.200 --> 3:35:26.320 you can do this. But yeah, that's kind of the 3:35:26.360 --> 3:35:26.879 state of things. 3:35:26.920 --> 3:35:27.160 I guess. 3:35:27.200 --> 3:35:29.400 I guess we should also mention there's been a bunch 3:35:29.440 --> 3:35:33.119 of reporting at the US is deploying two thousand paratroopers. 3:35:33.280 --> 3:35:35.560 I've seen both one thousand and two thousand side it 3:35:35.640 --> 3:35:39.080 is the number from the eighty second Airborne into the region, 3:35:39.200 --> 3:35:42.960 which presumably would be there for that like disastrous carg 3:35:43.040 --> 3:35:46.800 Island campaign. But oh boy, which is not boots on 3:35:46.840 --> 3:35:47.640 the ground because it's. 3:35:48.040 --> 3:35:52.360 It's doesn't the ground doesn't. We're good. 3:35:53.480 --> 3:35:55.760 I'm so excited for US to fight an entire war 3:35:55.840 --> 3:35:57.600 in the Arctic where he's like, there's not boots on 3:35:57.600 --> 3:35:59.199 the ground because they're all wearing snow shirts. 3:36:00.400 --> 3:36:01.440 Can't can't get us there. 3:36:02.400 --> 3:36:05.080 You see, all the Marines are wearing jet packs. They 3:36:05.160 --> 3:36:06.120 never touched the ground. 3:36:06.640 --> 3:36:08.680 They never touched the ground. They've got those weird what 3:36:08.959 --> 3:36:11.760 there's wearing water backpacks that you fly you can fly. 3:36:11.760 --> 3:36:17.080 With little jet ski to get those. They're not touching 3:36:17.120 --> 3:36:20.040 the ground. They're they're all laying a corduet road in 3:36:20.120 --> 3:36:22.080 front of them, so they're not technically on the ground, 3:36:22.120 --> 3:36:26.520 they're on this road. That Yeah, so things continue to 3:36:26.600 --> 3:36:30.000 go bad. Leave for kind of everyone involved in this 3:36:30.080 --> 3:36:33.640 war except I guess the Israelis, who are they seem 3:36:33.680 --> 3:36:35.879 to be happy. Yeah, they shouldn't be having a great 3:36:35.920 --> 3:36:39.760 time doing their doing another ethnic cleansing. But another group 3:36:39.800 --> 3:36:43.360 of people who've been doing extremely badly as a result 3:36:43.400 --> 3:36:47.120 of this, and has gotten almost no coverage in the 3:36:47.240 --> 3:36:49.680 American press to the extent that like I found out 3:36:49.720 --> 3:36:51.120 about I mean, like I was started hearing about the 3:36:51.120 --> 3:36:54.640 stuff from just like by friends who are Indian, which 3:36:54.720 --> 3:37:00.120 is that things are very very bad right now in 3:37:00.360 --> 3:37:04.920 East and Southeast Asia and just Southeast in general. Multiple countries, 3:37:05.240 --> 3:37:10.080 including a Thailand for example, have either sent part or 3:37:10.160 --> 3:37:12.560 all of their government employees home and told them to 3:37:12.720 --> 3:37:14.880 just work from home because they can't afford to keep 3:37:14.920 --> 3:37:18.720 their offices open because like cooling the offices is too expensive. 3:37:19.480 --> 3:37:22.800 They're sort of rolling crisis like across the entire sort 3:37:22.840 --> 3:37:25.560 of Pacific rim area because all of these countries are 3:37:25.680 --> 3:37:30.120 unbelievably reliance on oil, natural gas. This is also down 3:37:30.160 --> 3:37:32.880 to stuff like cooking oil too, which they also have 3:37:32.959 --> 3:37:35.000 not been able to get. And so you know, you 3:37:35.040 --> 3:37:38.240 can look at Sri Lanka where there are these just 3:37:38.600 --> 3:37:42.920 enormous fuel cues because the Sri Lankan governments they're four 3:37:43.000 --> 3:37:44.760 years out from the last time that they weren't able 3:37:44.800 --> 3:37:47.520 to input oil. That one was a sort of currency crisis, 3:37:48.320 --> 3:37:51.560 balance of payments issue they were having, but the moment 3:37:51.640 --> 3:37:53.240 there was there was a problem with the oil supply, 3:37:53.280 --> 3:37:55.200 the government started doing rationing. So now you have these 3:37:55.240 --> 3:37:58.520 massive lines for people trying to get gasoline. That's I 3:37:58.560 --> 3:38:01.600 think one of the worst ones in terms of just 3:38:02.320 --> 3:38:04.760 pure inability to get gasoline. So this is a problem 3:38:04.840 --> 3:38:08.640 across the region. The BBC also said, I was just 3:38:08.640 --> 3:38:10.200 gonna read the quot from the VC that they quote 3:38:10.280 --> 3:38:15.720 declared Wednesdays a public holiday. Sure, so yeah, they're just 3:38:15.720 --> 3:38:17.720 adding another day to the weekend because they can't have 3:38:17.800 --> 3:38:21.320 businesses open. Because businesses can't afford to like heat or 3:38:21.440 --> 3:38:24.680 cool themselves, they literally can't afford to keep the economy running. 3:38:25.160 --> 3:38:30.120 And variations of this are playing out all across South Asia. 3:38:30.200 --> 3:38:33.200 There's been a massive closure of industries in India, A 3:38:33.240 --> 3:38:35.600 whole bunch of restaurants. I think the estimates were about 3:38:35.640 --> 3:38:38.960 one fifth of restaurants are just gone because they can't 3:38:38.959 --> 3:38:42.800 get cooking oil. And you have the situations where like 3:38:42.800 --> 3:38:45.240 anything that requires like cooking oil, even other things that 3:38:45.280 --> 3:38:49.160 are open like can't be used. Gujarat, but the Indian 3:38:49.200 --> 3:38:51.600 side of Gujarat has a very large ceramic industry and 3:38:51.680 --> 3:38:54.480 it's gone. It's been gone for like a month. Eighty 3:38:54.520 --> 3:38:56.640 percent of it is shut down. This is four hundred 3:38:56.760 --> 3:39:00.280 thousand people affected by this because they're using for pain 3:39:00.440 --> 3:39:04.720 and there's no propane and this this is playing out 3:39:04.879 --> 3:39:08.600 across the region right There's been some reporting about concerns 3:39:08.640 --> 3:39:11.320 in Taiwan over whether they're going to have enough sort 3:39:11.320 --> 3:39:15.200 of liquified natural gas in order to keep their ship 3:39:15.280 --> 3:39:19.360 facilities running. But Taiwan is like kind of okay. It's 3:39:19.400 --> 3:39:22.599 places like Sri Lanka's, places like Thailand's, places like Miammars, 3:39:22.760 --> 3:39:27.520 India where things are getting really really bleak really quickly. 3:39:28.400 --> 3:39:30.600 There's a story that kind of did make it through 3:39:30.640 --> 3:39:34.320 into the American press about how the US temporary lifted 3:39:34.440 --> 3:39:37.360 sanctions on Iranian oil specifically so that there were these 3:39:37.400 --> 3:39:40.840 tankers the Iranian tankers that were just at sea and 3:39:41.600 --> 3:39:44.280 the sanctions specifically on those tankers are lifted so India 3:39:44.320 --> 3:39:46.360 could buy it. And this has been happening with Russian 3:39:46.360 --> 3:39:47.880 oil too. And the reason this is happening is that 3:39:48.000 --> 3:39:50.800 if you're not getting these kind of injections of oil, 3:39:51.920 --> 3:39:58.080 the situation there would be even more bleak than it 3:39:58.200 --> 3:39:59.960 already is. And obviously there's some places where it's just 3:40:00.280 --> 3:40:05.000 everything is continuing as normal, but you're starting to see 3:40:05.200 --> 3:40:09.600 just kind of these countries un raffle because so much 3:40:09.680 --> 3:40:13.680 of their infrastructure is based on an oil and natural 3:40:13.760 --> 3:40:16.320 gas that's that's that's coming through the Gulf, and it's 3:40:16.879 --> 3:40:20.280 really fucking bleak. And it's something to keep in mind 3:40:21.240 --> 3:40:24.080 as as this crisis rolls on. We're dealing with like 3:40:24.959 --> 3:40:28.520 gas price go up, which is obviously bad in an issue. 3:40:29.840 --> 3:40:31.240 There are a shit ton of people in the world 3:40:31.240 --> 3:40:32.840 where it's like, yeah, I know, like four hundred thousand 3:40:32.840 --> 3:40:35.400 people are out of their jobs because their entire ceramics 3:40:35.440 --> 3:40:37.880 industry is gone. Yeah, right, and these are these are 3:40:38.040 --> 3:40:40.960 not people who have money in the first place. And 3:40:41.520 --> 3:40:43.280 this is crisis is just going to continue as long 3:40:43.320 --> 3:40:44.600 as the Trump keeps this war going. 3:40:45.480 --> 3:40:46.880 So I guess we'll see how long that is. 3:40:47.240 --> 3:40:48.120 Hopefully not long. 3:40:48.720 --> 3:40:51.880 Yeah, I mean Poland continues to be bad. 3:40:52.480 --> 3:40:54.800 I'm sure Marco Rubio and JD. Events are going to 3:40:54.840 --> 3:40:58.879 be on it as they god, as they continue their negotiations. 3:41:00.959 --> 3:41:03.200 Yeah, there's not a long list of people that I 3:41:03.280 --> 3:41:05.000 want running negotiations less than JD. 3:41:05.160 --> 3:41:05.440 Vance. 3:41:05.520 --> 3:41:10.400 But like it's it's not great. It's not no, it's 3:41:10.440 --> 3:41:12.600 not great. It's there's no way to sugarcoat it here. 3:41:13.280 --> 3:41:16.200 It says something about how much fucking Kushner screwed the 3:41:16.240 --> 3:41:18.240 pooch that Iran is like, yeah, I get. 3:41:18.200 --> 3:41:21.320 Vance in here, bring bringing Vance, You get JD. 3:41:21.520 --> 3:41:23.440 Vance in here. I don't want to talk to that 3:41:23.560 --> 3:41:24.280 other guy again. 3:41:24.680 --> 3:41:27.200 There is like a legitimate problem they're having, which is 3:41:27.280 --> 3:41:28.880 like there's been a lot of jokes about how like 3:41:29.000 --> 3:41:31.080 all the DEI firings are like fucking the but like 3:41:31.160 --> 3:41:33.200 it actually is where there's like a whole bunch of 3:41:33.200 --> 3:41:36.160 the embassy staff people like got fired because they weren't 3:41:36.200 --> 3:41:38.120 white and because the Dose people were just like fuck it. 3:41:38.440 --> 3:41:41.640 And now it's like, I mean this was a situation already. 3:41:41.720 --> 3:41:45.640 The US government's, like experts on on other countries tend 3:41:45.760 --> 3:41:46.400 to be like. 3:41:47.160 --> 3:41:48.640 I mean, if you look at what happened in the 3:41:48.720 --> 3:41:51.000 lead up to the Iraq War, anyone who knew anything 3:41:51.160 --> 3:41:54.280 about Iraq as an actual s subject matter expert was 3:41:54.320 --> 3:41:58.160 basically isolated and cut out of like the planning because 3:41:58.480 --> 3:42:00.599 they were all saying, don't do what you do, it's 3:42:00.640 --> 3:42:02.760 not gonna work well. 3:42:02.800 --> 3:42:05.320 And and and even even even in administrations we regard 3:42:05.360 --> 3:42:07.320 as competent. Like I I randomly, like when I was 3:42:07.360 --> 3:42:09.520 at You'd reach Chicago, like going to school, I met 3:42:09.640 --> 3:42:12.880 the guy who was who was set Calm Syria analyst 3:42:13.560 --> 3:42:15.440 like right when at the beginning of this year in revolution, 3:42:15.520 --> 3:42:17.520 and he was like reporting to Barack Obama about what 3:42:17.680 --> 3:42:19.600 was going on, and it was just like some guy 3:42:19.760 --> 3:42:21.119 like it was it was it was like some guy 3:42:21.120 --> 3:42:24.320 who'd gotten like an undergrad degree, right, yeah, like and 3:42:24.600 --> 3:42:26.520 even those guys are getting like it was just like 3:42:26.600 --> 3:42:29.520 some random asshole with I mean, like he's like knew 3:42:29.600 --> 3:42:31.400 his stuff, but he wasn't like a he wasn't like 3:42:31.480 --> 3:42:35.480 an expert on this, right, And even those people are gone, 3:42:35.520 --> 3:42:37.080 And so now you're dealing with those people who are 3:42:37.120 --> 3:42:40.200 supposedly running these negotiations. You just have like literally no idea. 3:42:40.240 --> 3:42:42.440 What's going on? Because they fired every non white person, 3:42:43.080 --> 3:42:47.199 so it's just catastrophic for the entire world. 3:42:48.480 --> 3:42:52.520 Yep, cool, one more ad break and we will return 3:42:52.760 --> 3:42:56.120 for a final segment giving an update on a friend 3:42:56.280 --> 3:43:14.400 of the pod, Gregory Thethno oh, Greg, all right, we 3:43:14.480 --> 3:43:19.240 are back. Unfortunately, it's time for our reoccurring Bavino segment, 3:43:19.360 --> 3:43:20.280 hopefully the last. 3:43:20.520 --> 3:43:22.520 God what's boving on? 3:43:24.440 --> 3:43:26.680 He just had a very interesting interview with The New 3:43:26.760 --> 3:43:29.600 York Times he did in which he said that before 3:43:29.640 --> 3:43:33.400 he was demoted from his role as Commander at Large, 3:43:34.440 --> 3:43:39.240 he had a plan at DHS to deport one hundred 3:43:39.480 --> 3:43:45.440 million people, something that DHS then tweeted about with a 3:43:45.720 --> 3:43:50.360 silly little graphic that they stole from another artist. The 3:43:50.440 --> 3:43:53.560 New York Times reported quote mister Bavino said he had 3:43:53.600 --> 3:43:57.680 a master plan that was in motion before his exile 3:43:57.840 --> 3:44:03.560 back to Eli Centro. Have neutralized protesters, he said, and 3:44:03.720 --> 3:44:07.960 made it possible to deport one hundred million people. That 3:44:08.040 --> 3:44:09.920 as a goal that the Department of Home and Security 3:44:10.160 --> 3:44:13.000 has widely promoted. If it sounds extreme, it's because it's 3:44:13.040 --> 3:44:15.880 nearly ten times the estimated number of undocumented people in 3:44:16.000 --> 3:44:18.560 the country. It's also more than a quarter of the 3:44:18.800 --> 3:44:21.240 entire US population unquote. 3:44:21.520 --> 3:44:21.760 Yep. 3:44:22.920 --> 3:44:26.680 Gregory is also quoted in this piece of saying, I 3:44:26.840 --> 3:44:30.320 wish I'd caught even more illegal aliens. I mean, we 3:44:30.440 --> 3:44:33.480 went as hard as we could, but there's always a 3:44:33.600 --> 3:44:39.800 creative and innovative solution to catching more unquote. God would 3:44:39.800 --> 3:44:42.080 have been nice for a journalist to follow up. 3:44:42.080 --> 3:44:46.320 On what he meant by that, yep, yep, mm hmm. 3:44:46.840 --> 3:44:48.200 I want to talk a little bit about that one 3:44:48.280 --> 3:44:50.920 hundred million number, because sure there was a New York 3:44:50.920 --> 3:44:54.480 Times report where Trump said in one meeting to you 3:44:54.560 --> 3:44:56.760 the twenty twenty four campaign, mister Trump said that if 3:44:56.760 --> 3:44:58.680 it was up to mister Miller, there would only be 3:44:58.760 --> 3:45:01.480 one hundred million people in this country and they would 3:45:01.480 --> 3:45:03.400 all look like mister Miller. Wow. 3:45:03.600 --> 3:45:06.920 Yeah, I mean that's he's not lying, Yeah, you. 3:45:06.959 --> 3:45:07.600 Know, and he he. 3:45:07.720 --> 3:45:09.760 I guess has the numbers reversed in that in that 3:45:09.840 --> 3:45:11.879 the Bovino one is to port one hundred million people, 3:45:11.879 --> 3:45:15.120 which is the one that's been floating around in sort 3:45:15.160 --> 3:45:17.760 of like right wind circles more and this one was 3:45:17.800 --> 3:45:19.120 that there's only one hundred million left. 3:45:19.600 --> 3:45:23.000 But it's completely disconnected from reality, and like the economic 3:45:23.120 --> 3:45:27.600 reasons for why. Yeah, these deportations are even something disconnected 3:45:27.640 --> 3:45:32.240 from the economic reasons behind this sort of immigration enforcement. Yeah, 3:45:32.280 --> 3:45:35.000 there's just no logistical capacity. 3:45:35.240 --> 3:45:37.400 No, they're like, it's it's I mean, yeah, it would 3:45:37.440 --> 3:45:39.800 be one of the largest ethnic cleansings we've ever seen. 3:45:40.240 --> 3:45:42.320 But it's it's a thing that like people like Miller 3:45:42.560 --> 3:45:45.640 and the Boveno want. This is kind of what we've 3:45:45.680 --> 3:45:47.880 seen a lot in thro administration between the people who 3:45:47.920 --> 3:45:50.320 actually want the economy to work and the people who 3:45:50.720 --> 3:45:53.320 have like some other ideological goal. Yeah, because there's the 3:45:53.360 --> 3:45:56.400 people who just want the white ethno state, right, and 3:45:56.480 --> 3:45:59.600 that's sort of the Boveno like Miller wing, and then 3:45:59.640 --> 3:46:02.879 there's everyone else like Scott Besting, like the Treasury people 3:46:02.879 --> 3:46:05.960 who were like holy shit, like yeah, we want we 3:46:06.040 --> 3:46:07.880 want there that we want that we we we we 3:46:08.040 --> 3:46:10.680 need the permanently subjucated immigant under class. You can't deport 3:46:11.280 --> 3:46:13.440 one hundred and well this wouldn't even be the immigrant 3:46:13.480 --> 3:46:16.720 under class, right, This is this is like most of 3:46:16.840 --> 3:46:20.360 the norn white people in the US, right, who who 3:46:20.400 --> 3:46:23.520 they're talking about deporting? Who are just you know, people 3:46:23.640 --> 3:46:26.480 here like me and obviously like we don't know if 3:46:26.520 --> 3:46:30.080 Bavino's just lying about this, because who knows it's Bovino. 3:46:30.360 --> 3:46:33.800 But yeah, what this master plan actually looks like or 3:46:33.800 --> 3:46:37.800 what it included also not expounded upon something that the 3:46:37.879 --> 3:46:40.160 journalists at least did not get an answer out of 3:46:40.480 --> 3:46:45.880 that was then reported. No, it's unclear, but during Bavino's 3:46:45.959 --> 3:46:48.960 like rain at border patrol, this number was something that 3:46:49.040 --> 3:46:52.680 d just mentioned as a gold multiple times. For an example, 3:46:53.040 --> 3:46:57.720 earlier this month, Louisiana Senator John Kennedy was questioning David J. Ber, 3:46:58.120 --> 3:47:01.720 director of Immigration Studies at the Cato Institute, about his 3:47:01.800 --> 3:47:05.720 criticism of DHS, and Senator Kennedy read a quote from 3:47:05.879 --> 3:47:07.359 Beer's social media. 3:47:07.560 --> 3:47:13.560 They referring to Republicans think they control their way into 3:47:13.760 --> 3:47:16.440 US accepting ethnic cleansing. 3:47:18.440 --> 3:47:20.200 End quote your your words, not mind? 3:47:20.240 --> 3:47:21.320 Did I read that correctly? 3:47:21.879 --> 3:47:22.920 That was in regard to. 3:47:25.240 --> 3:47:29.320 Post about advocating one hundred million deportations. That is what 3:47:29.520 --> 3:47:32.920 DHS has tweeted from their own account. One hundred million 3:47:32.959 --> 3:47:36.080 deprit parts that would be ethnic cleansing. You would be 3:47:36.720 --> 3:47:41.199 learning one third of the country. So yes, there are people, 3:47:41.320 --> 3:47:43.920 we got homeland security. 3:47:44.000 --> 3:47:45.199 I think this is hyperbolic. 3:47:45.280 --> 3:47:46.560 Give me thirty more seconds. 3:47:46.879 --> 3:47:50.360 I think advocating one hundred million pavications. 3:47:49.879 --> 3:47:50.800 In having fun. 3:47:52.200 --> 3:47:55.560 On February he really thought he ate with that one. 3:47:55.680 --> 3:47:57.720 He was really he was really thinking he was going 3:47:57.800 --> 3:47:58.400 to dine out on that. 3:47:58.560 --> 3:48:03.560 Huh Wow. What is rattling around in your skull that 3:48:03.680 --> 3:48:06.720 you listen to that and think you want, like, what 3:48:06.879 --> 3:48:07.480 is happening here? 3:48:07.920 --> 3:48:12.199 God, you're having fun having fun with that? Huh okay. 3:48:14.560 --> 3:48:19.000 Speaking of the Department of Homeland Security, there is a 3:48:19.200 --> 3:48:22.360 new big boss in town. Former Senator Mark Wayne Mullen 3:48:22.520 --> 3:48:25.720 has been sworn in as the new DHS Secretary. During 3:48:25.800 --> 3:48:30.879 his confirmation hearings, Mullen said he regrets calling Alex pretty 3:48:31.240 --> 3:48:35.440 a quote deranged individual who came to cause Max damage. 3:48:36.440 --> 3:48:39.400 Those words probably should have been retracted. I shouldn't have 3:48:39.440 --> 3:48:41.920 said that, and Secretary, I wouldn't. The investigation is ongoing 3:48:42.600 --> 3:48:45.600 and there is, Like I said, there's sometimes going to 3:48:45.640 --> 3:48:48.040 make mistake and I own it that one. I went 3:48:48.080 --> 3:48:51.720 out there too fast. I was responding immediately without the facts. 3:48:51.840 --> 3:48:54.200 That's my fault. That won't happen as secretary. So you 3:48:54.720 --> 3:48:57.600 regret that statement, I already said that, Yes, sir, would 3:48:57.640 --> 3:48:59.879 you want to apologize to the family. 3:48:59.680 --> 3:49:01.720 Of preddy Well. 3:49:01.959 --> 3:49:03.760 Sir, I just said I regret those statements. 3:49:04.840 --> 3:49:06.120 Is that the same as an apology? 3:49:06.840 --> 3:49:09.360 I haven't seen the investigation. We'll let the investigation go through, 3:49:09.440 --> 3:49:12.160 and if I'm proven wrong, then I will absolutely. 3:49:12.600 --> 3:49:13.800 The same as an apology. 3:49:15.120 --> 3:49:19.640 Oh God, man, just speak like a person. 3:49:20.640 --> 3:49:22.640 We got to bring mister Rogers in here to tell 3:49:22.640 --> 3:49:25.200 you what an apology is. Come on, bro, yes. 3:49:25.440 --> 3:49:27.520 I also there's a lot of discourse about his name 3:49:27.600 --> 3:49:28.320 being Mark Wayne. 3:49:28.400 --> 3:49:30.200 You can't tell me that guy doesn't look like a 3:49:30.320 --> 3:49:30.840 Mark Wayne. 3:49:30.880 --> 3:49:31.800 He looks like a Mark wayn. 3:49:31.880 --> 3:49:33.720 He looks like a Mark Wayne. Thank you so much, 3:49:34.880 --> 3:49:37.360 Jesus Christ. Just say sorry, dude. 3:49:37.720 --> 3:49:42.080 Later on in this same hearing, Mullen defended the actions 3:49:42.080 --> 3:49:45.080 of the officer who killed Renee Good, saying, quote, it's 3:49:45.200 --> 3:49:47.600 very clear that an officer had to make a split 3:49:47.920 --> 3:49:52.800 decision in that case. Throughout these lyrics, Mullen reiterated that 3:49:53.160 --> 3:49:56.360 he wants to keep the agency out of the news. Quote, 3:49:56.760 --> 3:49:59.000 my goal in six months is that we are not 3:49:59.280 --> 3:50:05.160 in the story every single day. When questioned about what 3:50:05.440 --> 3:50:08.160 ICE reforms he would be willing to put into law, 3:50:08.720 --> 3:50:11.920 Mullen said that a quote unquote better approach would be 3:50:12.240 --> 3:50:14.120 working with local municipalities. 3:50:14.600 --> 3:50:17.560 I would love to see ICE become a transport more 3:50:17.680 --> 3:50:20.440 than the front line if we get back, if we 3:50:20.480 --> 3:50:22.680 can get back into just simply working with law enforcement. 3:50:22.760 --> 3:50:25.360 We're going to them and we're picking up these criminals 3:50:25.680 --> 3:50:26.360 from their jail. 3:50:26.440 --> 3:50:26.600 One. 3:50:26.920 --> 3:50:29.720 We're going to reimburse them for having the person there. 3:50:30.280 --> 3:50:32.760 And a partnership is violent important. I don't think there 3:50:32.840 --> 3:50:34.800 needs to be a wall to change that. I think 3:50:34.920 --> 3:50:38.800 I can work within what is there. But there's an 3:50:38.880 --> 3:50:42.440 approach that can happen, but we've got to have partners. 3:50:42.320 --> 3:50:45.760 What he's trying to do here is essentially blame ICE 3:50:45.880 --> 3:50:50.080 overreach on sanctuary city policies, saying that ICE would need 3:50:50.120 --> 3:50:52.280 to be in all these places being on the ground 3:50:52.840 --> 3:50:56.960 if sanctuary cities would just cooperate with ICE for removal operations. 3:50:57.480 --> 3:51:01.760 In response to a question about ICE and cbp illegally 3:51:02.080 --> 3:51:05.920 entering people's homes, Mullen said, quote, we will not enter 3:51:06.040 --> 3:51:09.040 a home or a place of business without a judicial 3:51:09.160 --> 3:51:13.200 warrant unless we're pursuing an individual that runs into a 3:51:13.240 --> 3:51:16.160 place of business or residence or a house. 3:51:16.640 --> 3:51:17.120 Unquote. 3:51:17.720 --> 3:51:21.480 If this is true, this definitely is a partial movement 3:51:21.720 --> 3:51:24.520 still with this exception, but a partial movement from the 3:51:25.080 --> 3:51:30.480 so called administrative warrants which became popular under Christine Nome, 3:51:31.280 --> 3:51:37.160 which big if like it, I think, as like James 3:51:37.200 --> 3:51:39.040 has said before, I think there is like that the 3:51:39.160 --> 3:51:41.920 wind is changing a little bit, but I mean it 3:51:42.000 --> 3:51:44.400 could very easily change back. The other way is it 3:51:44.520 --> 3:51:47.680 is simply too soon to say. And obviously none of 3:51:47.760 --> 3:51:50.520 these things will be like satisfactory. ICE should not exist 3:51:50.560 --> 3:51:54.160 as an agency, But it is interesting to see the 3:51:54.160 --> 3:51:58.880 Trump administration slowly adjust towards pressure being put on ICE 3:51:59.080 --> 3:52:03.520 from the public. At Mullin's swearing in ceremony, Trump said, quote, 3:52:04.080 --> 3:52:08.000 generally speaking, Mark Wayne would be very much in favor of. 3:52:08.080 --> 3:52:11.040 What I'm in favor of. He might be worse. He 3:52:11.160 --> 3:52:14.360 might be worse than me. Oh no, So. 3:52:14.560 --> 3:52:17.160 Generally speaking, I think I can answer that Mark Wayne 3:52:17.160 --> 3:52:20.000 would be very much in favor of what I'm in 3:52:20.120 --> 3:52:20.480 favor of. 3:52:20.520 --> 3:52:21.640 Would you say that's right, Mark? 3:52:21.760 --> 3:52:23.040 I can't think of too many things. 3:52:23.320 --> 3:52:24.120 He might be worse. 3:52:24.360 --> 3:52:25.320 He might be worse than me. 3:52:25.480 --> 3:52:28.040 That's my look at his wife is saying that's right. 3:52:28.680 --> 3:52:31.800 But uh so, yeah, he's going to be great. 3:52:32.280 --> 3:52:35.000 So we'll see, we'll see what that turns out to be. 3:52:35.360 --> 3:52:41.600 Great stuff, great stuff. These people are so bizarre, like 3:52:41.720 --> 3:52:51.000 they can't talk. They sound ridiculous. Nightmare. That's my only take. 3:52:51.280 --> 3:52:53.680 They can't do nor they can't human. 3:52:55.080 --> 3:52:58.360 If you would like to send us a news tip 3:52:58.560 --> 3:53:02.800 relevant for news purposes, you can do so at cool 3:53:02.880 --> 3:53:04.560 Zone Tips at proton dot me. 3:53:05.840 --> 3:53:10.320 Again for news related tips, only put a transgirl on 3:53:10.400 --> 3:53:10.760 your couch. 3:53:11.680 --> 3:53:14.240 We reported the news, We reported the news. 3:53:14.400 --> 3:53:15.320 We reported the news. 3:53:21.440 --> 3:53:24.560 Hey, We'll be back Monday with more episodes every week 3:53:24.680 --> 3:53:26.560 from now until the heat death of the Universe. 3:53:27.320 --> 3:53:29.800 It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 3:53:30.000 --> 3:53:33.040 For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 3:53:33.120 --> 3:53:37.080 foolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio. 3:53:36.440 --> 3:53:39.600 App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 3:53:40.120 --> 3:53:42.000 You can now find sources for It Could Happen here, 3:53:42.080 --> 3:53:45.000 listed directly in episode descriptions. 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