1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,800
Speaker 1: The Ukrainians believe Moscow is making its unfounded claims about

2
00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,960
Speaker 1: Key of preparing to use a so called dirty bomb

3
00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:10,239
Speaker 1: because Russia's troops are pinned down in this area and

4
00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:13,640
Speaker 1: Carlson's commander believes it's only a matter of time before

5
00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:16,800
Speaker 1: they ouced Vladimy Putin's army from here by the end

6
00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:19,840
Speaker 1: of the year. We believe Hassan will be under Ukrainian

7
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:24,959
Speaker 1: flags by the end of the year. That's only a

8
00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: couple of months. Uh. We'll see how pinned down is

9
00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:31,639
Speaker 1: the Russian army in that area of the country. And

10
00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,120
Speaker 1: I think that's like like the actual trained army where

11
00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,760
Speaker 1: they have weapons as opposed to those new conscripts are

12
00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,600
Speaker 1: old fat men. They're shipping in with no uniforms or weapons.

13
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,440
Speaker 1: We thought we'd check in with someone who's more in

14
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:44,599
Speaker 1: the know on this than certainly I am Jeff McCaslin,

15
00:00:44,680 --> 00:00:49,360
Speaker 1: CBS News military consultant, founder and CEO of Diamond six

16
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:53,120
Speaker 1: Leadership and Strategy ll LC. Uh, Jeff, welcome back to

17
00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:57,440
Speaker 1: the Armstrong and Getty Show. So are we about to

18
00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:02,000
Speaker 1: see a major battle there in the Curissaneri? Good wealth

19
00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,560
Speaker 1: to do that if there's evidence that the Russians are

20
00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 1: preparing to defend the city, and so it might be

21
00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,080
Speaker 1: a house to house, you know, inner inside a city fight.

22
00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,040
Speaker 1: This is an important battle, of course, because her Son

23
00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,960
Speaker 1: was the first major city captured by the Russians of

24
00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:18,520
Speaker 1: the onset of the invasion back in February, and the

25
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:20,720
Speaker 1: problem the Russians of god is her Son sits on

26
00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:24,000
Speaker 1: the west side of the Niper River and Nipa River,

27
00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,560
Speaker 1: and as a consequence, as Ukrainians have been trying to

28
00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,479
Speaker 1: encircle them, looks like they're being more and more success

29
00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,280
Speaker 1: someone doing so, the Russians are confronted with the problem

30
00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:36,520
Speaker 1: of either withdrawing or being surrounded and forced eventually too surrender.

31
00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,200
Speaker 1: They are, as you suggests, evacuating an awful lot of

32
00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 1: civilians out of particular city, suggesting again that they think

33
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,800
Speaker 1: their position is non tenable. And there are reports actually

34
00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 1: that senior military commanders have gone to Mr. Putin and said,

35
00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 1: you know, we need to pull back. This is we

36
00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,840
Speaker 1: can't hold this and he has told them basically to

37
00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:57,960
Speaker 1: stay and hold it at all costs. If they did

38
00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:02,800
Speaker 1: get surrounded the so I read their Russian soldiers, would

39
00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:04,080
Speaker 1: that be the end of the war. Would it be

40
00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:06,760
Speaker 1: that big a deal or not. No, I don't think

41
00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:07,840
Speaker 1: it would be the end of the war. It would

42
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:09,880
Speaker 1: be a major disaster for the Russians. It would be

43
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,280
Speaker 1: very difficult for Puttin back in Moscow to cover up

44
00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,359
Speaker 1: the disaster like this for the folks back at home,

45
00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:15,720
Speaker 1: But it would not be the end of the war.

46
00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 1: And unfortunately, who could even push Mr. Putin more and

47
00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,480
Speaker 1: more into a corner and encourage him to escalate even

48
00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:28,440
Speaker 1: prother Wow. Yeah, that's a good point. So a strategic

49
00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,440
Speaker 1: victory by the Ukrainians, major disasters you called it, by

50
00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,000
Speaker 1: the Russians might make it more likely the world gets

51
00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:38,560
Speaker 1: drug into a nuclear conflict. It's it's certainly as possible

52
00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:41,120
Speaker 1: that you know, the Russians are doing this this information

53
00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:44,000
Speaker 1: campaign right now in which they are claiming that the

54
00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,480
Speaker 1: Ukrainians are preparing to detonate a so called dirty bomb

55
00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,280
Speaker 1: on Ukrainian territory. No, there's no evidence that that is

56
00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,400
Speaker 1: in fact happening. Most people believe this is preparation by

57
00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:57,239
Speaker 1: the Eruptions, perhaps to do so themselves and then try

58
00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,519
Speaker 1: to blame on Ukrainians. Yeah, that's an ugly story. Um.

59
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:03,560
Speaker 1: I want to ask you this question because it came

60
00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,280
Speaker 1: up earlier in the show, and I hear differing opinions.

61
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,840
Speaker 1: You know, you got thirty Democrats that send a letter

62
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,040
Speaker 1: to the President saying hey, hey, let's back off on

63
00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,680
Speaker 1: the whole Ukraine support. You got a chunk of Republicans

64
00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,040
Speaker 1: that feel the same way, and Kevin McCarthy said no

65
00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:19,720
Speaker 1: blank check for Ukraine a week or so ago. So

66
00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:22,440
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's a growing sentiment in the House,

67
00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,600
Speaker 1: but so far we've got bipartisan support. But to that question,

68
00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:29,960
Speaker 1: how big a deal is this? I was going to

69
00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,960
Speaker 1: read from David French in the Dispatch at some point.

70
00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,120
Speaker 1: He wrote a big piece yesterday saying this is the

71
00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,880
Speaker 1: biggest story in the world and it's crucial that we

72
00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,920
Speaker 1: continue to back Ukraine until they've defeated the Russians. Do

73
00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:43,680
Speaker 1: you think this is the biggest story in the world.

74
00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,440
Speaker 1: Is it crucial? I think it absolutely is, without a doubt.

75
00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,280
Speaker 1: I mean, let's just look at this way. If he

76
00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:53,120
Speaker 1: is successful and using military force to take territory that

77
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,280
Speaker 1: clearly belongs to a neighboring country, and what's to keep

78
00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,960
Speaker 1: him from moving on to the balt of view public

79
00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:03,040
Speaker 1: to lab Let's any Estonia parts of Poland because he

80
00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:04,760
Speaker 1: thinks they can get away with it. What's to stop

81
00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,920
Speaker 1: the Chinese? I'm saying, obviously, the international community is not

82
00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,960
Speaker 1: gonna respond to these things. The norms that we established

83
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,320
Speaker 1: at the end of the Second World War. The territory

84
00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,599
Speaker 1: is not seized by armed aggression or no longer valid,

85
00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:19,920
Speaker 1: and therefore we can move on on Taiwan. So I

86
00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,440
Speaker 1: think it's absolutely crucial that we are successful. You know,

87
00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,280
Speaker 1: it really bothers me is when McCarthy said that, and

88
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,000
Speaker 1: Progressive Democrats said that. One thing we know for sure

89
00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:36,240
Speaker 1: it brought a smile to Vladimir Prutins right. Oh, absolutely, yeah, absolutely,

90
00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:38,080
Speaker 1: without a doubt. And I don't want to drag into

91
00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:43,560
Speaker 1: politics discussion because you're a military expert, but it's disappointing

92
00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,560
Speaker 1: that there aren't more Republicans and Democrats who have been,

93
00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:50,400
Speaker 1: you know, voting for all this funding. At least throw

94
00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:52,440
Speaker 1: it into your speech on the campaign trail now and

95
00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,920
Speaker 1: then why it's important for the United States to back

96
00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,080
Speaker 1: this effort so that you don't have the support start

97
00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 1: to drip away a vote by vote. I guess that

98
00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:06,720
Speaker 1: being said, you know, the Pell opinion polls that I

99
00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:09,800
Speaker 1: look at suggests the American people are pretty strongly behind

100
00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:13,280
Speaker 1: this continues. The majority of both the House and the

101
00:05:13,360 --> 00:05:17,440
Speaker 1: Senate strongly support this. Ms McCarthy, Mr mcconoal, I'm sorry, Uh,

102
00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 1: the Senate Minority leader has been very outspoken about BIPARTIST

103
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:25,120
Speaker 1: and support for Ukraine. We did see about ten Republican

104
00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,640
Speaker 1: Senators vote against the most recent package for Ukraine, and

105
00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,320
Speaker 1: about fifty Republicans in the House and back in May

106
00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,680
Speaker 1: um and that might expand somewhat, and there might be

107
00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,760
Speaker 1: some insistence that greater oversight is put in place to

108
00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,760
Speaker 1: ensure that the funds that we're providing are in fact,

109
00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:44,120
Speaker 1: you know, getting to where we think they're going, which

110
00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,360
Speaker 1: not necessarily a bad idea, But I still think by

111
00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:51,400
Speaker 1: and large there is a strong support for supporting Ukrainians.

112
00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,680
Speaker 1: And uh, the question of when it should be over though,

113
00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:59,000
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians get to make that decision for themselves, but

114
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,800
Speaker 1: we can stop funding whatever we want. Also, do we

115
00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,040
Speaker 1: if they get back everything going back to February? Is

116
00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,080
Speaker 1: that good enough for us? Or do we continue to

117
00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,560
Speaker 1: fund them until they try to push the Russians out

118
00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:14,200
Speaker 1: of Crimea, which might be a pretty tough task. That'll

119
00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,040
Speaker 1: be a pretty tough task, no doubt about it. And

120
00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:19,440
Speaker 1: I think for not only the Biden administration, but frankly,

121
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,840
Speaker 1: the Europeans are returned the statusco anti, that being the

122
00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,800
Speaker 1: borders that roughly were in placed back on the February

123
00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,160
Speaker 1: with a real spanking and the Russians in the process

124
00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,799
Speaker 1: might well be acceptable. And the other thing were watching

125
00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,400
Speaker 1: only is support here in the United States, but support

126
00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:37,159
Speaker 1: here in Europe where I am right now, which does

127
00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:39,440
Speaker 1: also seem to be a bit brittle and based on

128
00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,400
Speaker 1: the amountain kind of military assistance men of European countries

129
00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:48,080
Speaker 1: are providing. They're they're providing just enough military equipment to

130
00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,960
Speaker 1: you know, keep the Russians at bay and hopefully move

131
00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:53,960
Speaker 1: them back to their status coo anti without providing them

132
00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,480
Speaker 1: so much military hardware that the Ukrainians would would launch

133
00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,600
Speaker 1: the kind of major offensive you're talking about to take

134
00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,280
Speaker 1: back Ama or even start trying to strike cities on

135
00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:08,240
Speaker 1: Russian territory. Doctor Jeff McCaslin, retired colonel from the U. S. Army,

136
00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:11,200
Speaker 1: Senior Fellow at the Stockdale Center for Ethical Leadership at

137
00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:15,680
Speaker 1: the Naval Academy, appreciate your expertise and opinions today it's

138
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,640
Speaker 1: always a pleasure. Armstrong and