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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you happy Christmas Eve? Everybody?

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Speaker 2: My name is Matt Parralton. Welcome into a new episode

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Speaker 2: of the Daily Juice podcast. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 2: across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt, And yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Grinch showed up and Ebenezer Scrooge did not do

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Speaker 2: me any favors yesterday. I don't know what the Bowl

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Speaker 2: games are like for you guys, but have you've been

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Speaker 2: trailing me? You're not doing very well. If you are

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Speaker 2: fading me, you're doing incredibly well. And I am out

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Speaker 2: on the bowl games for a while. Okay, this was

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Speaker 2: somewhat of an experiment for me with the Bowl games

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Speaker 2: because of the transfers, the coaches being fired like it is.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what UNLV did last night. That was

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Speaker 2: I had never seen UNLV play like that. That was

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Speaker 2: the worst game that they played all year. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if they just didn't prepare at all for Ohio.

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Speaker 2: But UNLV being shut out in the first half, excuse

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Speaker 2: me that offense against Ohio's defense got shut out. That

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Speaker 2: that was a field trip for UNLV. That wasn't a

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Speaker 2: business trip. They had other designs. The under we bet

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Speaker 2: on Louisville landed forty nine. It was one touchdown over,

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Speaker 2: so that's not a horrible play. Kings lost outright, so

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Speaker 2: they didn't win that game in regulation. How about this,

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Speaker 2: oh to three down over three and a half units

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Speaker 2: for US on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: But how about this.

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Speaker 2: The Seattle Kraken had lost sixteen consecutive games on the

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Speaker 2: second end of a back to back, sixteen straight and

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Speaker 2: they won last night.

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Speaker 1: So that's kind of the way things are going.

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Speaker 2: They had been, you know, I had been a four

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Speaker 2: to one mark for the Kings, but the Kraken had

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Speaker 2: been awful, and everybody was betting that. Because of that reason,

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Speaker 2: that trend went up in flames, unfortunately for me, So

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Speaker 2: I did not realize that Christmas Eve might be the

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Speaker 2: single worst betting day of the year. There are no

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Speaker 2: NBA games, there are no NHL games, there are no

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Speaker 2: NFL games. There is one Bowl game, and I'm not

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Speaker 2: betting Cal and Hawaii. I will bet the playoff games,

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Speaker 2: and that's it. I'm done with college bowl games.

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Speaker 1: That's it.

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Speaker 2: So we're going to cut that out, eliminate that. Okay,

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Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five, we're good. No more ball game

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Speaker 2: betting for me, but this is going to have to

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Speaker 2: be an NFL day. Two NFL futures and two NFL

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Speaker 2: bets for tomorrow. Now, the hard rock bet of the Day,

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Speaker 2: which is normally here on a Wednesday, we're going to

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Speaker 2: push that to Thursday because of the three games on

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Speaker 2: Christmas and make it Christmas. But this is wild to me.

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Speaker 2: I didn't really realize that this has been Like Christmas

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Speaker 2: is a very big day for sports, Christmas Eve, the

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Speaker 2: leagues have sort of gotten rid of it. I don't

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Speaker 2: know I would play more football games on Christmas Eve.

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Speaker 2: I understand the travel, I understand that everyone's getting ready

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Speaker 2: for the big Guy tonight, so it's a lot of preparation.

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Speaker 2: And here in this house we're doing the same thing, right,

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Speaker 2: So I get why Christmas Eve is sort of like

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Speaker 2: a no fly zone for a lot of sporting events.

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Speaker 2: But wow, I mean, I'm really surprised at how little

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Speaker 2: there is to bet on Fortnight. So it's all gonna

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Speaker 2: be tomorrow. So this is going to be two futures

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Speaker 2: and two bets for to start us off, because it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a pretty big card for us coming up

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Speaker 2: on Christmas, given the amount of NBA and NFL games

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Speaker 2: we have to bet, so I mean, I'm gonna be

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Speaker 2: pretty well committed. We're not betting anything today, so I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna roll it over. We'll probably have six official plays tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: so we're gonna have a big card on Christmas. Today,

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Speaker 2: We're not gonna have that much because it's just not

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Speaker 2: that much to bet on, which, frankly, isn't a bad

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Speaker 2: thing to take a break after an zero and three

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Speaker 2: day yesterday, not a bad time to kind of pump

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Speaker 2: the breaks and go, Okay, let's take a break and

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Speaker 2: let's move to Thursday.

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Speaker 1: For the next time. We will put money in action.

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Speaker 2: But some bets for you guys, first and foremost, two

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Speaker 2: futures in two bets for the Christmas Day NFL games

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Speaker 2: for us in one second. First and foremost, though, let

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Speaker 2: me remind you about our friends at hard Rock Bet.

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Speaker 2: If you guys have not gone and checked out hard

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Speaker 2: Rock Bet yet, you should do that.

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Speaker 1: It's the holiday season.

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Speaker 2: They are the presenting sponsor of the Daily Juice podcast.

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Speaker 2: You can sign up today five dollars bet on any bet.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with the futures and then we will roll

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Speaker 2: into the two plays on Christmas. All right, so here's

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Speaker 2: the thing. Here's the bracket. Okay, this is the bracket.

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Speaker 2: If you're listening to the podcast, I have the bracket

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Speaker 2: up for what currently is the NFL bracket. Okay, the

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Speaker 2: key things I want you to watch are Denver in

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Speaker 2: the one spot and Seattle in the one spot.

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Speaker 1: Those it would change.

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Speaker 2: The Patriots could catch the Broncos and the Seahawks might

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Speaker 2: get caught by the forty nine ers. Amazingly, not the Rams,

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Speaker 2: but the forty nine ers could beat them, and San

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Speaker 2: Francisco would be the one seed in the West. So

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Speaker 2: let's look at the potential for that. Could that happen? Yes,

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Speaker 2: that could absolutely happen. Now let's focus on the AFC

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Speaker 2: first and then we'll get to the NFC. Jacksonville currently

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Speaker 2: is the three seed. How scared are we about Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: and the Chargers?

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Speaker 1: Not really.

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Speaker 2: I'm not interested in either team injuries, defense, offensive line issues,

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Speaker 2: you know, DK Metcalf. I'm not interested in Pittsburgh or

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Speaker 2: the Chargers. I'm not interested in the Bills. Their defense

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Speaker 2: is not going to be that great from a defensive perspective.

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Speaker 2: In the playoffs, I don't think that they can. They

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Speaker 2: go on the road and beat Jacksonville. Absolutely, But at

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Speaker 2: this moment, no one's beating the Jags because I don't

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Speaker 2: think James Cook will run the football against the Jags.

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Speaker 2: If the Bills can't run the football, the Bills can't win.

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Speaker 2: So Jacksonville, best rushed in the NFL, Jaguars win that game.

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Speaker 2: Patriots and the Texans. I think the Patriots lose that

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Speaker 2: game as of right now. The Patriots would get beaten

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Speaker 2: by the Houston Texans, and then the Houston Texans, being

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Speaker 2: the lowest seed, would have to go to Denver in

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Speaker 2: what would be the ultimate rock fight football game in

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Speaker 2: the divisional rounds between Denver and Houston.

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Speaker 1: Who wins that game? I have no idea.

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Speaker 2: Okay, zero, that's if Denver has the one seed, mind you,

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Speaker 2: but let's just work under the guys that they would.

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Speaker 2: That means Jacksonville would play the winner of Pittsburgh and

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Speaker 2: the Chargers. I like Jacksonville to beat both those teams,

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Speaker 2: so let's say it's Jacksonville versus Houston to go to

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Jacksonville would never leave. They would have

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Speaker 2: home field advantage in this scenario that I think is

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Speaker 2: very plausible. Okay, Now, could Jacksonville go to Denver and

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Speaker 2: beat Denver?

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Speaker 1: They just did. They just did, and it.

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Speaker 2: Was in convincing fashion. It wasn't just a layoup like

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Speaker 2: a last second field goal. They dominated the Broncos. The

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville Jaguars are fourteen to one to win the Super Bowl. Again,

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Speaker 2: We're trying to build a portfolio to have a bunch

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Speaker 2: of teams available that we can either have both sides

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Speaker 2: of the championship game, so one of our teams makes

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, or we get into a good hedge

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Speaker 2: opportunity where both teams we got them both and we

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Speaker 2: and we can hedge or one of the other and

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Speaker 2: we can hedge off of it. Okay, we have the

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Speaker 2: Patriots at eleven to one, we have the Seahawks at

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Speaker 2: fourteen to one. The Jaguars are fourteen to one to

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Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl, and I'm going to come in

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Speaker 2: and take it officially. Okay, I think the way that

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence is playing, I think the way Liam Cohen

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Speaker 2: has this defense, humming. This is a guy who is

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Speaker 2: known as an offensive minded guy, but he's got a

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Speaker 2: stellar defense with a good enough pass rush. And this

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Speaker 2: is all without Travis Hunter, their top pick in the draft.

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Speaker 2: You look at what Chakoby Myers has done. You can

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Speaker 2: say it's fool's goal and the entire AFC is full

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Speaker 2: of pretenders, but at some point somebody has to come

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Speaker 2: out of the AFC.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 2: The one seed is Denver, the two seed is the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: That might flip flop, and the Patriots might be the

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Speaker 2: one seed and Denver might be the two seed. You

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Speaker 2: would need both Denver and the Patriots to lose a game.

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville would win out, and they're going to win out.

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Speaker 2: Jacksonvill is going to have fourteen wins, and then it's

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Speaker 2: a whole tiebreaker situation as to who's going to be

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Speaker 2: the one seed. But if the Patriots beat the Jets

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Speaker 2: and the Dolphins, they're there. If the Broncos lose, which

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Speaker 2: is possible one of their last two games, well then

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Speaker 2: they're out. Patriots are in in the pats of your

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Speaker 2: one seed. More likely than not, Denver is going to

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Speaker 2: be the one seed, but there's a shot that's the Patriots.

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville most likely is going to be the three seed

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Speaker 2: in this scenario, and most likely they're going to be

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Speaker 2: playing the Buffalo Bills. I like the draw for the Jags,

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Speaker 2: even if it does get and the duck the deck

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Speaker 2: gets shuffled a little bit. I like Jacksonville's ability to

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Speaker 2: go on the road. I think they can beat the

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Speaker 2: Patriots in New England, even in cold weather, if that's

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Speaker 2: what happens in New England. I mean, maybe not in

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Speaker 2: a blizzard or a snowstorm. But I'm not sure the

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Speaker 2: Patriots can win that game either. So I am very

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Speaker 2: high on the Jacksonville Jaguars. And there's a decent shot

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Speaker 2: that the Jaguars are the two or the three seed,

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Speaker 2: and they might not depending on how it breaks. They

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Speaker 2: might not ever have to leave Jacksonville to get to

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. I'm taking the Jaguars fourteen to one,

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Speaker 2: Jags fourteen to one, one unit to win the Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl out of the AFC Jacksonville Patriots. Two futures on

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Speaker 2: the AFC. Let's go to the NFC and let's go

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Speaker 2: to the San Francisco forty nine ers and their draw.

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Speaker 2: So Seattle right now is the one seed, but the

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Speaker 2: Niners could wind up with the one seed if they

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Speaker 2: beat Seattle and they win out, they play the Ravens

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Speaker 2: coming up. They have a very difficult game coming up

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Speaker 2: here this weekend. If we see a win for San

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Speaker 2: Francisco and they get a huge win in primetime, again,

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Speaker 2: starts the Bear. Sorry, not the Ravens against the Bear,

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Speaker 2: excuse me, the Bears on Sunday night at home. Though

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Speaker 2: they beat the Bears, they will play the Seahawks. If

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Speaker 2: they beat the Seahawks, the same team that they beat

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Speaker 2: in Week one, the Niners will be the one seed

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Speaker 2: and this fourteen to one number is gone.

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Speaker 1: If they're the.

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Speaker 2: One seed, Green Bay plays Chicago. Now, if Chicago loses

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Speaker 2: this game, we might see a little bit of a

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Speaker 2: swap as to who winds up with the two seed

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Speaker 2: in the NFC. So there is obviously some movement that

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Speaker 2: might wind up happening here in the NFC. You've got

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Speaker 2: eight eleven and four Chicago, a ten to five Philadelphia.

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Speaker 2: Philadelphia is going to play the Bills on the road

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Speaker 2: this weekend. If they win that game and they beat

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Speaker 2: the Commander in the last game of the season, which

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Speaker 2: they probably should.

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Speaker 1: They'll be twelve and five, really nice season.

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Speaker 2: What do we see out of Chicago who currently would

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Speaker 2: lose that game this weekend to San Francisco, they would

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Speaker 2: be twelve and five, so are they'd be eleven and five?

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Speaker 2: And then the Bears last game of the season for

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Speaker 2: Chicago is against the Lions, which they may or may

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Speaker 2: not need this. So could the Bears lose their last

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Speaker 2: two games? Yes, that's possible, But again, a lot has

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Speaker 2: to be determined, and a lot's going to be shaken out.

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Speaker 2: I look at San Francisco right there, going Okay, let's

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Speaker 2: just say they stay where they are with the five

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Speaker 2: seed as a wild card. Can they beat Carolina? Absolutely,

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Speaker 2: they can beat Carolina one hundred percent. They can beat Carolina.

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Speaker 2: Then they go from Carolina where the receding happens, the

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Speaker 2: Rams beating Philly. Possibly they lost there last year green

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Speaker 2: Bay went healthy, should beat Chicago, so Green Bay would

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Speaker 2: go to Seattle, and then Philadelphia would play San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: Could the forty nine ers win the game on the

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Speaker 2: road at Philly, Absolutely, one hundred percent, even with all

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Speaker 2: the injuries, even with everything.

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Speaker 1: That they've been dealing with.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely San Francisco can win on the road, beat Carolina,

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Speaker 2: beat Philadelphia, and now they're in the NFC Championship Game

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Speaker 2: where they very well might wind up playing Seattle, where

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Speaker 2: it would be the third time they're playing Seattle for

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Speaker 2: a chance to go to the Super Bowl. If that

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Speaker 2: were to happen, we've got fourteen to one Seattle, fourteen

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Speaker 2: to one San Francisco. We have a team in the

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl. That's ideal. Okay, right there, that's the ideal

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Speaker 2: situation for us to guarantee someone at fourteen to one

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Speaker 2: with the three other one units bet right, so really

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Speaker 2: it turns into an eleven to one ticket. But then

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Speaker 2: they're playing in the Super Bowl. We can guarantee profit.

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Speaker 2: That's all we're trying to do. Let's guarantee you four

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Speaker 2: or five units of profit. I'm taking it San Francisco

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Speaker 2: fourteen to one to win the Super Bowl, Jaguars fourteen

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Speaker 2: to one, forty nine Ers fourteen to one. That gives

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Speaker 2: us four teams here at double digit lines for our portfolio.

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Speaker 2: If you will, two teams in the AFC, two teams

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Speaker 2: in the NFC. There's no guarantee that we're going to

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Speaker 2: get there with either either of those teams.

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Speaker 1: Okay. These are value plays.

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Speaker 2: These are taking positions and hoping that we see these

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Speaker 2: teams make runs and then we'll start to hedge off

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Speaker 2: of it based on how it goes.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: So again, this is bank roll management. This is being

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Speaker 2: careful with your money. Hey, don't be stupid. I do

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Speaker 2: bet more than one unit on these things, but that's

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Speaker 2: up to me, so don't worry about me. Jaguars, Patriots

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Speaker 2: and the Seahawks and the forty nine ers, you only

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Speaker 2: need one team in the super Bowl with a ticket

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Speaker 2: like that for us to be able to hedge off

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Speaker 2: of it to get there. Okay, just need one of

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Speaker 2: those teams to get there, and then we're hedging, and

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Speaker 2: we're guaranteeing profit. Okay, even if it's one unit, So

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Speaker 2: guaranteeing profit, all right. So that's how I'm playing so

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Speaker 2: far with the futures market. Seattle plus fourteen with fourteen

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Speaker 2: to one, Patriots eleven to one, forty nine Ers fourteen

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Speaker 2: to one, Jaguars fourteen to one. Shop find the best

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Speaker 2: price available to you in your state. Now, let's jump ahead.

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Speaker 2: Let's take a look at what's going on here for

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Speaker 2: the Denver Broncos and the Casey Chiefs third string quarterback

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Speaker 2: playing for Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: Here is the crazy stat.

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Speaker 2: We're currently at thirteen and a half for Denver and

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. This will be the biggest number in the

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Speaker 2: history of Arrowhead Stadium for the Chiefs to be home dogs.

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Speaker 2: They were at one point in nineteen seventy seven against

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Speaker 2: the Raiders, they were a thirteen point dog. Oakland won

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Speaker 2: the game thirty seven to twenty eight. Chiefs covered. In

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Speaker 2: nineteen seventy seven, it was a twelve and a half

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Speaker 2: point number against the Colts. Baltimore went in there and

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Speaker 2: won the game seventeen to six. Chiefs covered. In nineteen

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Speaker 2: seven six against the Steelers, it was a twelve and

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Speaker 2: a half point number. Terry Bradshaw and the Steelers went

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Speaker 2: in there and they won the game forty five nothing.

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Speaker 2: Chiefs didn't cover. Back when it was Aaron Rodgers and

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Speaker 2: Kyle Orton, the Packers went in there and they were

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Speaker 2: eleven point favors. In twenty eleven, Casey won the game outright.

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Speaker 2: Since nineteen eighty, the Chiefs are undefeated seven to zero

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Speaker 2: ats as a home dog of nine points or more.

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Speaker 2: You don't just go into Arrowhead on Thursday night on Amazon.

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Speaker 2: I don't care who's playing quarterback, it's Andy Reid and

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Speaker 2: Steve Spagnolo. There is a lot of pride in this organization,

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Speaker 2: and you're gonna say they're thirteen and a half point

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Speaker 2: dogs to Bo Nicks and the Broncos coming off the

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Speaker 2: performance that they had against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. No,

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I'm taking the points. You're giving me thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half points, I'm taking thirteen and a half points.

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Speaker 2: This is going to be a low scoring, slobber knocker

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Speaker 2: of a football game. This is gonna be all about

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Speaker 2: defense and running the football. GIMMEKC plus thirteen and a half,

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Speaker 2: I'll take it now. I don't think it hits fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I don't.

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Speaker 2: Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think we get to

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Speaker 2: fourteen thirteen and a half. I think as a ceiling,

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Speaker 2: we're taking KC on Christmas Night against the Broncos. The

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Speaker 2: only way to watch this game is to bet the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs and to have the home dog at thirteen and

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Speaker 2: a half and hope the team plays with some pride

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Speaker 2: and we're taking Kansas City plus thirteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: But That's not the only play I'm gonna make here

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Speaker 2: in this game. Because the first half for Kansas City,

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Speaker 2: oh my, this is wild. Kansas City has been just

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Speaker 2: an outright home undermachine at home. They just don't score

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Speaker 2: a lot in the first half.

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Speaker 1: Why.

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Speaker 2: I don't really know, to be quite honest, the first

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Speaker 2: half team total is nineteen and a half the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: when they play up against AFC West opponents, the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: have not been good recently. The Chiefs have been pretty bad.

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Speaker 2: But this is a different team right now because of

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Speaker 2: the quarterback situation. And you know, the Broncos are one

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Speaker 2: in seven ats against KC since twenty twenty two. That's remarkable.

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Speaker 2: The Packers and the Chiefs and the Seahawks are all

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Speaker 2: eleven and four so far this year to a first

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Speaker 2: half under. That's the best mark in the NFL. This

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Speaker 2: would be the Chiefs first season above five hundred to

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Speaker 2: the first half under since twenty twenty one. Do you

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Speaker 2: think the Chiefs are going to get into a shootout

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Speaker 2: with the Broncos? No, how about the first half? Do

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Speaker 2: you think when the defense is at full throat and

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Speaker 2: ready to go in at full energy level, they're going

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Speaker 2: to want to allow the Broncos to score a lot.

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Speaker 2: This feels like a field goal fest to me. In

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Speaker 2: the first half between these two teams at nineteen and

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Speaker 2: a half. I'm taking the first half under here. I

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Speaker 2: don't think we see a ton of scoring in the

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Speaker 2: first half between these two teams. New quarterback for Kansas City,

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Speaker 2: Casey's defense at home a drunken really revved up a

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Speaker 2: fan base that knows that they're getting a dome in

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Speaker 2: twenty thirty one. So enjoy Arrowhead Stadium and the outdoor weather.

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Speaker 2: Why you can, because there are going to be another

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Speaker 2: anti antiseptic, boring, typical dome team, the Beyers building a dome,

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs building a dome. How dumb is this. It's

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Speaker 2: amazing how these people don't understand what football is all

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Speaker 2: about and what makes football great. Outdoor weather weather advantage

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Speaker 2: you play in the cold, other people don't. I don't

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Speaker 2: want to go to Kansas City for a Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: It'd be boring. And I like Casey. I like the weather,

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Speaker 2: I like the food, I like the people. I hate

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Speaker 2: the fountains, but I like everything else. I don't want

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Speaker 2: to go there. I love Chicago Girl and goat one

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Speaker 2: of the best restaurants on the planet. Unbelievable, purple pig,

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Speaker 2: amazing food. I would love to go to Chicago. I

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Speaker 2: love going to Chicago. I do not want to go

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Speaker 2: to a super Bowl. To cover the Super Bowl in Chicago.

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Speaker 2: Cold weather cities should be banned from having Super Bowls. Boston,

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Speaker 2: New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Milwaukee, Kansas City, goodbye. Even San

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Speaker 2: Francisco is borderline. Going this year to San Francisco is borderline.

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Speaker 2: These politicians. One point eight billion dollars in public money

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Speaker 2: given to the Chiefs. One point eight billion. When the

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Speaker 2: Raiders got seven hundred and fifty million dollars from the

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Speaker 2: state of Nevada to build a Legion stadium, it was

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Speaker 2: the largest public money donation in the history of America

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Speaker 2: to build a facility. The Chiefs just said, screw it,

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Speaker 2: Let's see what Kansas will give us, because Missouri is

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Speaker 2: playing hardball. Let's see if kau will give us one

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Speaker 2: point eight billion. And they said yes, in public money. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I thought I thought the Hunt family was one of

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Speaker 2: the richest families in the entire NFL. Right, that's Lamar

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Speaker 2: Hunt right, right, Like they need one point eight billion

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Speaker 2: in public money. Really, and Kansas was dumb enough to

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Speaker 2: give it to them. Sure, And I'm okay with public

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Speaker 2: funds being used to build multipurpose facilities. I mean, Allegian

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Speaker 2: Stadium here in Vegas is the single most profitable entity

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Speaker 2: in the world in the world.

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Speaker 1: Just voted that last month.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So Allegian Stadium has been an unbelievable addition to

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Speaker 2: the skyline into the economy here in Vegas. So I'm

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Speaker 2: completely fine with the public funds being used for certain things.

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Speaker 2: But like, it was a big uproar here, I mean

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Speaker 2: a big uproar on both sides of the aisle. I

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Speaker 2: thought Kansas was a conservative state. They're giving a billionaire

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Speaker 2: one point eight billion dollars to build a state a

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Speaker 2: dome stadium on top of that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you know sure.

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Speaker 2: Our play is for today Jaguars to win the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: Future forty nine ers to win the Super Bowl, Future

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Speaker 2: both at fourteen to one, Case at plus thirteen and

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Speaker 2: a half.

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Speaker 1: More to come on the.

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Speaker 2: Christmas Day games tomorrow on the podcast in Casey Denver

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Speaker 2: first half under at nineteen and a half. More to

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Speaker 2: come tomorrow. Have a phenomenal Christmas Eve. Please be safe.

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Speaker 2: I want to see all of you back for Christmas

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Speaker 2: Day tomorrow when we have football in games, to actually

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Speaker 2: bet on mine's Matt Parolt. You guys can follow me

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Speaker 2: across all my socials at Sports Talk Matt every morning

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Speaker 2: wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice