1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:06,479 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg 4 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 2: Business App. 5 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: Or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 6 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Sound On. I'm Joe 7 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:20,159 Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington. We hear often on this program that 8 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 3: we should not pay too close attention. Don't obsess over 9 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 3: national polls. The election is too far out. The campaigns 10 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 3: are focused on early states. You're talking to the wrong people, 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:36,560 Speaker 3: and that makes sense. But for the incumbent, it's always 12 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 3: one reliable poll and that's the one at the gas 13 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 3: pump for this president, For Joe Biden. It's been a 14 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 3: pretty long road too, fighting high oil and gas prices 15 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 3: coming out of COVID right in the outset there, made 16 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,520 Speaker 3: worse by the war in Ukraine, remember the Putin price hike. 17 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 3: So before we look at where it is today, let's 18 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 3: rewind to January when things were looking a little better. 19 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 4: Even the inflation is high and major economies around the 20 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 4: world is coming down in America month after month, giving 21 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 4: families some real breathing room. And the big reason is 22 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 4: falling gas prices. My administration took action to get oil 23 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 4: onto the market and bring down prices. Now gas is 24 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,240 Speaker 4: down more than a dollar seventy from its. 25 00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 3: Peak, okay, and they've been going up this summer. As 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,839 Speaker 3: I read on the terminal, US retail regular gasoline price 27 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 3: is up to three dollars seventy three cents a gallon 28 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 3: in the week ended August four. I also find a 29 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 3: story here that says easing US pump prices signal some 30 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 3: relief an inflation fight. Pump prices falling or holding stable 31 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 3: since Friday, according to the American Automobile Association. The easing 32 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 3: comes after a seventeen day rally that took prices to 33 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 3: an eight month high, largely the result of slipping oil 34 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 3: prices reflecting global demand woes, which brings me to the 35 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 3: front page here at gas Buddy Fuel Insights. Three dollars 36 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 3: eighty cents a gallon. That's the live tick right now 37 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 3: as we look at gas prices nationally, realizing that not 38 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 3: all states are in the same place, so we wanted 39 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 3: to take a closer look at this with Patrick d'han, 40 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 3: the head of petroleum analysis at gas Buddy, the man 41 00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 3: who crunches the numbers here, Patrick had spent a while, 42 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 3: and we welcome you back. Some folks were projecting four 43 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 3: dollars a gallon this summer. I don't know if that's 44 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 3: still possibly in the cards. But where are we now 45 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 3: compared to where we were in January? 46 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 5: Well, as you mentioned, we've come a long way, and 47 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 5: gas prices have certainly escalated into the summer months as 48 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 5: more Americans and at the road. 49 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 1: I don't know that. 50 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 5: Four dollars a gallon is something that will happen this summer, 51 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 5: but with hurricane season and ocean temperatures now at some 52 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 5: of the highest levels we've seen, there's still the potential 53 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 5: that a hurricane could disrupt the flow of oil into 54 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 5: refineries and the flow of gasoline out of them. But 55 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 5: we have seen a big rally of gasoling has start 56 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 5: of the year. The national average at about three dollars 57 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 5: and seventeen cents a gallon, so we've seen quite the rally. 58 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 5: As you mentioned, three eighty a gallon. We're down just 59 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 5: about a penny from our peak just a few days ago. 60 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 5: But with OPEC cutting production, or I should say the 61 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 5: Saudi's cutting production, extending that into September. There is some 62 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 5: upside risk here, and. 63 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 3: If you're Joe Biden, it's more about refilling the SPR 64 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 3: right now rather than drawing it lower. I suppose that's 65 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 3: been at least some of the strategy coming out of 66 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 3: the White House here. Does that further tighten things? With 67 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 3: the war in Ukraine showing no sign of ending as. 68 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:43,160 Speaker 5: Well well, I think the Biden administration has a couple 69 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 5: different angles that they could get hit. You know, the 70 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 5: SPR gas prices reaching record levels last year, although that 71 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 5: was really a function of Russia's worn Ukraine, and overall 72 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 5: gas price is still quite elevated now. For its part, 73 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 5: the Apartment of Energy has tolled the market it's going 74 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 5: to throttle back and slow down and stop purchasing when 75 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 5: oil prices are above the prescribed range as they are today, 76 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 5: just to make it clearly evident that the US government, 77 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 5: the Department of Energy, is not going to be a 78 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 5: buyer when oil prices are high. Having said that, there 79 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 5: have been a couple of purchases that were made, I 80 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 5: think about twelve million barrels when you piece it all together. 81 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 5: The administration has also canceled required sales that existed or 82 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 5: were mandated before the administration was took over, that is 83 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 5: for Trump. So one hundred and forty million barrels were 84 00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 5: canceled that had been mandated to sell. Now, you know, 85 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 5: I don't know, however, American is going to look at it, 86 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 5: whether that's you know, a simple replacement or if that 87 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 5: can offset what we've withdrawn. But then most Americans would agree, 88 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 5: especially the administration, agrees that seeing what happened with Russia's 89 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 5: war in Ukraine, there is a need for a strategic 90 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,279 Speaker 5: preserve and that it's better to have more oil in 91 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 5: it than less. But I don't know what the Saudis 92 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 5: and Russians cutting production significantly. If the Department of Energy 93 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 5: is going to have enough latitude enough time to put 94 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 5: a dent in the amount of oil that was sold 95 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 5: out of it in time for the election. 96 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 3: How long is it going to take to refill it. 97 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 5: Well, it really depends on a lot of different factors. Certainly, 98 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 5: the pace of the economic recovery is a big one, 99 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 5: because if the economy doesn't need the crude oil, the gasoline, 100 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 5: the diesel, the jet fuel, then it's far easier for 101 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 5: the administration to refill it. But signs are looking like 102 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 5: the economy may be able to avoid a deeper recession 103 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,880 Speaker 5: or recession altogether, and that means the administration is likely 104 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 5: going to have to be more patient, especially in light 105 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 5: of the Saudi and Russian production cut that's happening. Now 106 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 5: there's less oil on the market. You could argue that 107 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 5: there's already an impound between supply and demand, and that's 108 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 5: what the Department of Entergy is stopping its acquisition of 109 00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 5: crude ole to refill the spr So I mean very 110 00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:00,520 Speaker 5: quickly here things have swung. The pendulum has swung completely 111 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 5: the opposite direction, where the market is extremely tight and 112 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 5: the Department of Energy has no toys but to really 113 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 5: sit on the sidelines. And that's something that may be persistent, 114 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 5: especially going into the months ahead of the FED is 115 00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 5: close to being done with its interest rate increases. That 116 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 5: means that potentially twenty twenty four at sometime, the interest 117 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 5: rate might start coming back down and that could bolster 118 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 5: economic activity. 119 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 3: It's interesting when you think about the cross currents and 120 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 3: the different combinations we could get right in the middle 121 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 3: of an election campaign. I'm looking at crude oil here 122 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 3: on the terminal, we're just above eighty two dollars a 123 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 3: barrel up fractionally today, but that's still the highest since 124 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 3: looks like the middle of April. As I'm looking at 125 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 3: the chart here. How much of this has to do 126 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 3: simply with the price of crude versus refining issues demand 127 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 3: in the summer driving season. 128 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 5: Well, I think I think it's a little bit of both. 129 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 5: Number One, the price is crudeal being so much higher 130 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 5: is pushed the price of gasoline up. But a lot 131 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,159 Speaker 5: of this came A lot of the increase in gasoline 132 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 5: prices has come relatively quickly fast and puris I suppose, 133 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 5: in the last couple of weeks, and that has also 134 00:07:12,160 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 5: been partially due to triple digit temperatures in areas where 135 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 5: there are where there are a lot of refineries, and 136 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 5: where there are a significant amount of refining capacity in 137 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 5: Texas and Louisiana. Keep in mind that you know, refinery 138 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 5: is not just like restarting your computer right or it 139 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 5: takes thirty seconds or a minute. Some of these outages 140 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 5: that have been brought on by triple digit temperature. First 141 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 5: of all, equipment is sensitive when you expose electronics to 142 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 5: triple digit temperatures. Because refineries are exposed to these high temperatures, 143 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 5: it can pose a challenge. But then there's also the 144 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 5: the chemistry, the physics of it. That thermal expansion is 145 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 5: a real thing, and when you're talking about one hundred 146 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 5: and fifteen degree heat, that really reduces capacity or throughput 147 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 5: at refineries. So there's a lot of issues. You know, 148 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 5: we saw it this winter. Remember that cold snap last 149 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 5: December caused refinery iron Chicago in Colorado in that lasted months. 150 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 5: So extreme weather, cold or warm condent refining capacity. And 151 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 5: that's where we are now. And that's that along with 152 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 5: the price of cruel, which is up for six straight weeks, 153 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 5: is pushed the price of gasolane up and for diesel, 154 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 5: by the way, obviously the fuel of the economy. Diesel 155 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 5: prices are going to continue trending up, whereas gasoline prices 156 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 5: might trend a little bit lower and then we get 157 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 5: a little bit of a break in September as we 158 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 5: roll back to cheaper winter gasolane. But diesel the outlook 159 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 5: is not nearly as positive. Diesel prices couldn't continue to 160 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 5: make advances, especially going into the. 161 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 3: Fall, and that's supply chain of course. Never mind people 162 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: in the Northeast eating their homes I don't know, Patrick. 163 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 3: Maybe Elon Musk can start building refineries in orbit. Maybe 164 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 3: that's the answer to climate change. Patrick de'han's great to 165 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,199 Speaker 3: have you back. Let's stay in touch the head of 166 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 3: petroleum analysis at gas Buddy. 167 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound Podcast. Catch the program 168 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 169 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 170 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:08,959 Speaker 6: The Bloomberg Business App. 171 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 172 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 173 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 3: And I want to hear from the panel on this, 174 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 3: But first I'll bring you back almost exactly a month. 175 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 3: It was the tenth of July when Maria Bartiromo asked 176 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 3: on Fox News. 177 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 5: What happened failure to launch Florida Governor Ron DeSantis's campaign 178 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 5: to topple Donald Trump has stalled. We are way behind, 179 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 5: says a top DeSantis pac official, sounding the alarm. 180 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 7: What happened, Oh, Maria? These are narratives. The media does 181 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 7: not want me to be the nominee. I think that's 182 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 7: very very clear. Why because they know I'll beat Biden. 183 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 7: But even more importantly, they know I will actually deliver 184 00:09:55,840 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 7: on all these things. 185 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 3: It's not been a month of delivering. Let's real assemble 186 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 3: the panel. Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics Contributed Republican Strategist, joined 187 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 3: today by Roger Fist, the Democratic Analyst, President New Day Strategy. Rick, 188 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,599 Speaker 3: you're the king of the rebound here, the king of 189 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 3: the reset. There's a reason why they call you when 190 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 3: they start writing articles about this kind of stuff. Was 191 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 3: this the right move? Do you go to the campaign manager? 192 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 3: What would you tell Ron Desantists to do today? He 193 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 3: doesn't have that much time. 194 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 8: Well, he's had to take some kind of action because 195 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 8: in the middle of the reboot he's not getting the 196 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 8: reaction that he really wanted. And it's not for his 197 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 8: lack of trying. You know, he's opened himself up to 198 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 8: the media and it's been some embarrassing moments, like you 199 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 8: know on s N Yes when he had to answer 200 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 8: the question is is Joe Biden the official president of 201 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 8: the United States? And so you know, he's taken those risks. 202 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 8: But the problem he's got is he doesn't have a 203 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 8: well of support of people who have had experience in 204 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 8: national campaigns, and with all due respect, national campaigns are 205 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 8: different than running a state campaign, especially against weak opponents, 206 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,559 Speaker 8: which is what you know they've been doing in the 207 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 8: in the governor's mansion. So to bring in his chief 208 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 8: of staff, I'm sure that creates confidence amongst his staff 209 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 8: and gives the candidate and his spouse some comfort, But 210 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 8: he's not going to have any better sense of what's 211 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,600 Speaker 8: going to be expected of him next because he's never 212 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 8: been through a cycle like this. And if you haven't 213 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 8: been to Iowa, and you haven't been in New Hampshire, 214 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 8: and you haven't seen the craziness around Super Tuesday, you're 215 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 8: you're going to make rookie mistakes because you're a rookie. 216 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 8: And that's exactly what's posing right now for the for 217 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 8: the DeSantis campaign. 218 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 3: This is interesting to go to the chief of staff 219 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 3: in the Florida Governor's office, Roger, is a smart move. 220 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 3: Or to Rick's point, the calls coming from inside the house. 221 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 6: Yeah, to speak to inside the house. 222 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 9: One of the most one of the signals that I 223 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 9: see of a week campaign is the leaking, and it 224 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 9: says something about the ascendance of super packs, where all 225 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 9: of a sudden, super PACs. 226 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 10: Feel like they should be speaking to the press and 227 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 10: driving this kind of kind of internal process messaging that 228 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 10: speaks to a house divided, that speaks to the inability 229 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 10: of the governor to lead a complex effort like this. 230 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 6: To Rick's point, some. 231 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:31,320 Speaker 10: So, the person that they're bringing in probably addresses some 232 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 10: kind of comfort level, some kind of trust issue, et cetera. 233 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 10: But I don't know how many more reboots you get. 234 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 10: I mean, maybe they're going for the trifecta this summer 235 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 10: and they're doing one reboot a month or something like that, 236 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 10: with the idea of getting this out of the way 237 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 10: by labor Day. But at best, especially in this climate 238 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 10: where there's virtually no oxygen and you really have only 239 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 10: the room to get through one kind of narrative or 240 00:12:53,280 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 10: one kind of selling point. And right now, at least 241 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 10: for the summer, back into the late spring, the one 242 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,920 Speaker 10: thing everyone knows about DeSantis is they can't stabilize that 243 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,839 Speaker 10: ship and he can't get ahead. And that's that's what 244 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 10: that whole campaign is communicating right now. 245 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 3: How often does a campaign come back after ditching a 246 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 3: campaign manager. 247 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 8: Rick, Now, they always ditch the campaign manager. You know, 248 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 8: every campaign I've been involved in since Ronald Reagan, and 249 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:25,440 Speaker 8: you know, ditch the campaign manager, and some more ceremoniously 250 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:30,439 Speaker 8: than others. But the reality is it's it's extremely difficult job. 251 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 8: You really don't ever get a chance to look like 252 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 8: you're succeeding, because there's no situation until you hit the 253 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:42,200 Speaker 8: nomination that you've succeeded. So you know, you don't raise 254 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 8: enough money, ditch a campaign manager, you don't have good polling, 255 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 8: ditch a campaign manager. You know something stupid was said 256 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 8: by a spokesman. It's a campaign manager. So this isn't 257 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 8: this isn't an extraordinary moment. What's extraordinary about it is 258 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 8: that his entire campaign is failing. And so now all 259 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 8: the pressure is going to be on the new campaign manager, 260 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 8: who doesn't have the experience to know what to do next. 261 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 8: And and and and I think that's the biggest law 262 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 8: that the Santis has is he has never surrounded himself 263 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 8: with political pros. He surrounded himself with different campaign managers 264 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 8: for every campaign he's ever had. Uh And and usually, 265 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 8: you know, successful presidential campaigns, you're surrounded by a trusted 266 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 8: group of aids that have seen the success and the 267 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 8: failures in your office and know how to handle it. 268 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 8: Both you and the political situations that present themselves. 269 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 3: So, Roger, what would you tell Ronda Santis to do? 270 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 3: I know you're not working for him, but is it 271 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 3: more interviews? Is it is it a different are you 272 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 3: just you're you're you're reaching into the wrong pot here, 273 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 3: Stop playing up to MAGA. 274 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 1: What's the advice? 275 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 10: I just like, mathematically, I don't see where he thinks 276 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 10: he can grow because most of his campaign is based 277 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 10: on the vilification of roughly half the country, and then 278 00:14:57,040 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 10: the and then the Magabase already has their their date 279 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 10: to the dance, as it were, so there's no there's 280 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 10: no room to move there. So at least in the 281 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 10: context of the primaries, I don't see where he grows. 282 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 3: Mike Pence makes news qualifies for the debate and you 283 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 3: can picture it now, Rick, eight people on one stage. 284 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 3: Is this a Mike Pence rising Ron DeSantis falling moment? 285 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 8: Well, it's it's very hard to see if there's any 286 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 8: momentum in the underticket. And yet if there is some, 287 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 8: I would say the contrast that Mike Pence has been 288 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 8: able to draw with Trump, which is something actually I 289 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 8: think Roger was alluding to that DeSantis has not been 290 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 8: able to do right. He really hasn't said I'm the 291 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 8: anti Trump, And to some degree Pence's conduct since the 292 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 8: indictment by the DOJ on January sixth, charges he's taken 293 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 8: a very strong stance. You know, it's me and the 294 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:04,080 Speaker 8: Constitution versus Donald Trump, which would rather have And I 295 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 8: think that has boosted him up a little bit. It'll 296 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 8: be seen. You know, it's difficult to see how he 297 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 8: takes advantage of it. Like Roger said, where you take 298 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 8: your stance. There's not a lot of natural battleground for him, 299 00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 8: but he's about the only one getting positive media right now. 300 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 8: And that's saying something in a field of a dozen people. 301 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: That really is. 302 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 3: Roger, should we put Jeb Bush on the phone with 303 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 3: Ron De Santis? Is that what this is? 304 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 6: I don't to provide what kind of advice. I mean, 305 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 6: these rebooks. 306 00:16:39,040 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 3: Jeb Bush of this campaign. I mean, look back to 307 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 3: that incredible narrative coming in and this just the straight 308 00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:48,320 Speaker 3: decline that followed his announcement. 309 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 10: Yeah, well, I'll tell you this very quickly. I shared 310 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,680 Speaker 10: a plane with Boris Epstein once. We were both sitting 311 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 10: next to each other, and the thing that we ended 312 00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 10: up agreeing on we're in a past. We're in a 313 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:04,439 Speaker 10: post court ornation political environment. These ideas that these super 314 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 10: PACs raise one hundred grand and etc. Jeb I think 315 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 10: walked in the door with one hundred grand already raised, etc. 316 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 10: Those days are over in terms of correlating that to 317 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 10: any on the ground support. The voters are able to 318 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 10: access a lot more of their own information, They are 319 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 10: able to do their own kind of due diligence on 320 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 10: the candidates, and there's much different ways to get messaging 321 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,479 Speaker 10: out to people. So this kind of top down walking 322 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 10: in the door with tens of millions of dollars and 323 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 10: being the industry favorite, I think, at least for right now, 324 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 10: those days are over, and the governor of Florida is 325 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 10: learning that the hard way. 326 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 3: Fascinating. That must have been quite a conversation on that plane. 327 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 3: Roger Fisk and Rick Davis are with us here on 328 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Sound On with a new poll out of Arizona, 329 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,200 Speaker 3: and of course we've got mister Arizona with us right now. Rick, 330 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 3: I love your insights. Here on the Emerson Pole Trump 331 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 3: fifty eight, Ron DeSantis eleven. We're talking about a forty 332 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 3: seven point spread that aside for one second, Third place 333 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 3: is a guy named Chris Christie at six percent. He's 334 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,679 Speaker 3: out running Ramaswami, Pence, Haley, Scott and the rest. What 335 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 3: do these numbers do for you in a state like Arizona. 336 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:15,800 Speaker 8: You know, I have to say it's too early to tell. 337 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 8: None of these candidates have spent any time in Arizona. 338 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 8: The Arizonians are baking in over one hundred and ten 339 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 8: degree heat. They're not even at home. Hopefully they found 340 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 8: a nice beach somewhere to last the summer. But the 341 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 8: reality is that the campaign hasn't even started in Arizona. 342 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 8: It is way too soon to say any of these 343 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 8: numbers are meaningful, and they're so little in the underticket, 344 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 8: you know, the Santas at eleven and Christy at six, 345 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 8: it's virtually meaningless. You could make the narrative, oh my god, 346 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,919 Speaker 8: Christy's coming up on runs right, except they're both forty 347 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 8: percent below Donald Trump, so it's meaningless. I actually think 348 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 8: the one thing that people are paying attention to is 349 00:18:57,800 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 8: the Senate race, because you could have a very un 350 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 8: usual situation where you have a legitimate three way race 351 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 8: with Senator Cinema actually declaring that she's an independent now 352 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 8: she hasn't declared that she's going to run for re election, 353 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 8: so you've got kind of a flip of a coin there. 354 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 8: But it'll be fascinating to see how these numbers take out, 355 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 8: because we rarely get to see a legitimate three way 356 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,400 Speaker 8: race with an incumbent being in the third spot. That's right, 357 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 8: and so that'll tell us a lot about the viability 358 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 8: of these third party campaigns. 359 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 3: As we also wait for everyone to announce on the 360 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:37,640 Speaker 3: Republican side. Lake forty two, Lamb eleven, Masters seven fascinating. 361 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 362 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 363 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,400 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 364 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. 365 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 3: Let's reassemble our panel for their take on this. Rick 366 00:19:55,480 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 3: Davis joins, of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist Roger 367 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:05,560 Speaker 3: Fisk is here as well, Democratic analyst President New Day Strategies. Rick, 368 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 3: We've talked about a lot of these state by state 369 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 3: examples of abortion rights since the role ruling by the 370 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 3: Supreme Court. Is it fair to frame this story as 371 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 3: such or should Ohioans be voting on ballot access because 372 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,400 Speaker 3: we've seen a lot of interesting parties get involved here. Businesses, 373 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:30,359 Speaker 3: for instance, are supporting passage of this measure because they 374 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 3: don't want to see other things like a minimum wage 375 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 3: or legalizing marijuana get on a ballot either. How should 376 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 3: we be focusing on this? What's the smart view? 377 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think that the no vote constituency, the no 378 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 8: vote campaign, has done an incredibly good job of making 379 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 8: this about abortion. Obviously, there are other issues, as you 380 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 8: point out, that could be subject to this kind of 381 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 8: a ball measure, which is by the way, status quo 382 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 8: anti it can be happening right now. And that is 383 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 8: what the the Yes campaign has done is said, hey, 384 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,159 Speaker 8: why don't you worry about all these other things that 385 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 8: could be put on the constitution, you know, with a 386 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 8: simple majority. And yet you know you can't help but 387 00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 8: look back at what happened, as you said, in Michigan, 388 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:24,000 Speaker 8: in Kansas and not think you know, there's a movement 389 00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 8: in the states that was launched by the DoD decision 390 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 8: that is a constituency of pro choice activists exerting their 391 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,800 Speaker 8: will on the public and in bright red states. And 392 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 8: so I think that this is one to watch. If 393 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 8: it falls the way current polling looks, the no campaign wins, 394 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 8: and I think arguably the pro choice abortion activists are 395 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 8: going to have another went under their belt in our 396 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 8: decidedly republican state. 397 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 3: Is that what you expect? 398 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: Roger? 399 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 3: We pointed out in our story a USA Today Suffolk 400 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 3: poll found, well, just last month, fifty eight percent of 401 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 3: likely Ohio voters support enshrining abortion rights in their constitution. 402 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 6: Yeah. I think that's the way it's going to go. 403 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 6: I agree with Rick. 404 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 10: And if that is the way that the voting goes, 405 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 10: then that's good policy. 406 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 6: And if it fails, then it's good politics. 407 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 10: Because the more people try to push this on the 408 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 10: state level in terms of making it more difficult to 409 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 10: enshrine women's access to a full spectrum of healthcare decisions, 410 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 10: they're essentially assembling the Biden Enthusiasm Act on a. 411 00:22:35,160 --> 00:22:36,520 Speaker 6: State by state basis. 412 00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 10: Because all of that momentum becomes very, very helpful as 413 00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,400 Speaker 10: you head into the fall of twenty twenty four. 414 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 3: It's interesting here that there are a lot of different 415 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,959 Speaker 3: ways they could get this done. Rick is getting on 416 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 3: the ballot in this form. Considering the movement that you 417 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,640 Speaker 3: just refer to a better option than moving through the legislature. 418 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 8: Well, I think it was a very defensive measure, you know, 419 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 8: And and yet it accomplishes the same thing. This is 420 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 8: a proxy vote, you know, for as Rogers said, enshrining 421 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,440 Speaker 8: abortion rights into the constitution, because that'll be the next 422 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 8: thing that gets teed up. And and so you have 423 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 8: to deal with the process you're given. In Ohio. They 424 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 8: have this quirky process that that that allows them to 425 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 8: do this kind of referendum. And it's confusing. I mean, 426 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 8: you know, you would think the no was a yes 427 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 8: and the yes was a no, the way most people 428 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,680 Speaker 8: think about this thing. But in this case, they've made 429 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 8: it very clear in the state. And look, some Republican 430 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 8: activists Frank LeRose a good example, Secretary of State who's 431 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 8: running in a primary to be the next United States 432 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 8: Center has been the face of the yes campaign, and 433 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 8: they've made the case that this could bring all kinds 434 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 8: of you know, sort of what do they call it, 435 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 8: malign liberal East Coast influences to our pristine Ohio. Yeah, 436 00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 8: and that doesn't seem to be shaking the vote loose. 437 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 8: As you say, there's already as many people who have voted, 438 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,199 Speaker 8: you know through Friday that almost voted the entire midterm election. 439 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 8: I mean, that's extraordinary turnout. 440 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 3: It really is. You know, one of the pro issue 441 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 3: one ads Rogers said that out of state groups, we'll 442 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 3: try to California our Ohio, which did make me chuckle. 443 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 3: Oppressive regulations on farmers, government rent control, grocery bag taxes 444 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 3: all could be part of your reality. Roger, what is 445 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,400 Speaker 3: that early turnout? 446 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: Tell you. 447 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,200 Speaker 10: It's very reminiscent to Kansas and also the Wisconsin Supreme 448 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 10: Court race. 449 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 6: I would throw in this bucket as well. I don't know. 450 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 10: Maybe Ohio would not like to be the sixth largest 451 00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 10: economy in the world. I'm thinking maybe there could be 452 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 10: some upsides for them if they were to look at 453 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 10: it and through a broader lens. 454 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: But this is. 455 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:08,360 Speaker 10: Very, very motivating for the base. And as always, when 456 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,120 Speaker 10: you combine a movement like this with the former president's 457 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 10: alienation of educated suburban women, it just makes it more 458 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 10: and more difficult for these folks to reach out to 459 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,879 Speaker 10: those suburbs when it comes time for the general election. 460 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:26,159 Speaker 3: I can only imagine what you're thinking, maybe emerging economy 461 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 3: for Ohio, where are you going. 462 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,520 Speaker 6: I mean no, I'm sorry. I switched to the politics, 463 00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,640 Speaker 6: which is to say, when you see. 464 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 10: Movements like this that are specifically focused on abortion, let's 465 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 10: be let's be candid, and then you look at what 466 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,919 Speaker 10: the demographic around who was alienated by the former president, 467 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 10: and for example Georgia, they're not winning over educated suburban 468 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 10: women anytime soon with initiatives like this. 469 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 3: I just figured if there's an upside to not being 470 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,239 Speaker 3: the sixth largest economy. I was trying to finish your 471 00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 3: sentence for you there. Thanks for listening to The Sound 472 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 3: On podcast. 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