WEBVTT - Trump, Western Alliance, FedEx, and Apple

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's get

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<v Speaker 1>the latest on this Trump indictment, the arraignment yesterday in

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<v Speaker 1>Lower Manhattan. We're gonna roundtable listening today. Lisa Kamuso Miller,

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<v Speaker 1>former Republican National Committee communications director and partner with Reset

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<v Speaker 1>Public Affairs, joins us by phone, as does Bloomberg Washing

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<v Speaker 1>correspond at Emily Wilkins, to discuss the indictment. Lisa, let's

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<v Speaker 1>start with you here. What's the feeling in Republican circles

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<v Speaker 1>about what took place in Lower Manhattan yesterday? Oh? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's really hard to tell. I mean, this is so

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<v Speaker 1>unprecedented and just so different from anything we've ever seen

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<v Speaker 1>in the history of this country. I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there is a different point of view from a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of different parts of the party, but ultimately the thought

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<v Speaker 1>is that wherever happened yesterday in front of the world

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<v Speaker 1>did nothing to bolster any support for Donald Trump from

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<v Speaker 1>the Republicans that he lost in twenty sixteen. So he

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<v Speaker 1>has a very core base of about thirty percent of

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<v Speaker 1>the electorate on the Republican side that are still with him,

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<v Speaker 1>regardless of how insane all of this really is. But

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<v Speaker 1>there is just so much more to look at and

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<v Speaker 1>unpack as this unfolds. But really, yesterday, I mean, the

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<v Speaker 1>fact that he wants to run for office in twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four but can go to mar Lago and yell from

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<v Speaker 1>the microphone about how the fabric of the country is

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<v Speaker 1>eroded and this is all fake and false is just

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<v Speaker 1>to me. It's just totally in contrast with what the

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<v Speaker 1>party at once, at one time stood for. But it

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<v Speaker 1>seems like everybody in the party has gotten behind him,

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<v Speaker 1>at least to call this this indictment political move right.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we heard from Mitt Romney, who is no

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<v Speaker 1>traditional fan of Donald Trump, he voted twice to impeach

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<v Speaker 1>the former president, that this is overreached by Alvin Bragg

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<v Speaker 1>and that this will damage the US judicial system. I

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<v Speaker 1>guess you know, from from the Democrats point of view,

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<v Speaker 1>Mitt Romney is as close to a voice of reason

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<v Speaker 1>as a Republican Party has and he's calling out Bragg

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<v Speaker 1>saying this is not right. Yeah, that's a real change

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<v Speaker 1>in tone from him, and that was really surprising. But

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<v Speaker 1>I suspect that part of it, too, is not necessarily political.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think maybe what Romney is thinking behind the

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<v Speaker 1>scenes is that it does. It's not necessarily about what

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<v Speaker 1>Bragg has done, because I cannot believe that someone like um,

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<v Speaker 1>like Dia Bragg would do anything but bring the strongest

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<v Speaker 1>possible case in an instance like this. The difference here, though,

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<v Speaker 1>is your republic Huh. At one point I was now

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a little bit cot. I was confused. Well, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>a never Trumper and there's no surprise about that, but

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<v Speaker 1>I am still part of the Republican Party and I

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<v Speaker 1>represent the side that's also more just confused by all

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<v Speaker 1>of this. We're confused by this. But but this trend

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<v Speaker 1>is not We're not going backwards here. That's the difference

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<v Speaker 1>is that we're not going back to where we once were.

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<v Speaker 1>We have to go through this, so we have to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out as a party, as a country, how it

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<v Speaker 1>is we're going to manage And because Trump is not

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<v Speaker 1>going away, So it's more of a how do we

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<v Speaker 1>figure out what it is that he's done to unlock

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<v Speaker 1>this core of voters in the Republican side. So back

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<v Speaker 1>to my point about Trump though, or excuse me about Romney. Romney,

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<v Speaker 1>to me, if he is trying to unlock and talk

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<v Speaker 1>about this in a way that he calls this political,

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<v Speaker 1>he is most likely thinking that not only is the

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<v Speaker 1>damage going to come from Trump, and the damage is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be done in a way that will cause

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<v Speaker 1>harm to the judicial system, it'll also cause a problem

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<v Speaker 1>for any future case that will come because everything Trump

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<v Speaker 1>is trying to do is this credit right, These all

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<v Speaker 1>of these allegations about payments have been confusing to people.

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<v Speaker 1>No one fundamentally understands why it matters. The truth is

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<v Speaker 1>that he but everyone sort of agrees that it happened

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<v Speaker 1>right in terms of the actual payments. Let me bring

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<v Speaker 1>in Emily Wilkins from Bloomberg Government, Emily the senior statesman

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<v Speaker 1>from Utah, and I mean, Mitt Romney is the one

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<v Speaker 1>of the more statesman like people in the entire you know, uh, Senate,

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<v Speaker 1>I think everyone would agree, he said, quote the prosecutors

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<v Speaker 1>overreach that's a dangerous precedent for criminalizing political opponents and

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<v Speaker 1>damages the public's faith in our justice system. Are there

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<v Speaker 1>any statesman, you know, are then there any like legit,

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<v Speaker 1>respectable senators Emily who have come out on the other

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<v Speaker 1>side of this, I mean for Democrats absolutely, you certainly

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<v Speaker 1>see them, you know, say that that, you know, encouraging

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<v Speaker 1>what da brag has done here, uh, kind of going

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<v Speaker 1>after Trump saying like, look, you know, if a potential

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<v Speaker 1>crime was being committed, that they have the right to

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<v Speaker 1>look into it. At the same point, I do think

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<v Speaker 1>there is a sense in DC and on Capitol Hill

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<v Speaker 1>that this is not the strongest case against Trump. I mean, remember,

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<v Speaker 1>there are multiple cases that are looking into the former

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<v Speaker 1>president right There's the one in Georgia that deals with

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<v Speaker 1>the twenty twenty election and interference. There's the one in

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<v Speaker 1>DC right now with the Special Special Council that's looking

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<v Speaker 1>into the classified documents. And there's a sense that some

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<v Speaker 1>of those are actually bigger concerns than any sort of

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<v Speaker 1>mismanagement in bookkeeping or hush money payments. And so I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's kind of and I will be interested to

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<v Speaker 1>see how Mitt Romney responds when some of those cases

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<v Speaker 1>are brought forward because if you look at the Republican

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<v Speaker 1>Party right now on Capitol Hill, they are really done

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<v Speaker 1>with the twenty twenty election. They're done with calls that

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<v Speaker 1>it's fraudulent. They want to get past that and move

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<v Speaker 1>past that. If you see another one of these indictments,

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to have to confront it again. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think for a number of them, you aren't going to

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<v Speaker 1>see maybe as much support for Trump or as much

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<v Speaker 1>blowback against uh. You know, whoever the DA is who

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<v Speaker 1>brings the case forward. I mean this particular instance, it's

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<v Speaker 1>really easy for Republicans, you know, when you ask them

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<v Speaker 1>about Trump, when you ask them about the indictment, they

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<v Speaker 1>will immediately change the channel to district District Attorney Alvin Bragg.

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<v Speaker 1>You saw Kevin McCarthy yesterday, you know, really did not

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<v Speaker 1>comment about Trump much at all. But when after Alvin

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<v Speaker 1>Bragg saying he's attempting to interfere with our democratic process,

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<v Speaker 1>that Congress will hold him accountable. This is really a

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<v Speaker 1>talking point that everyone's so far been able to get behind. Lisa,

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<v Speaker 1>you're the former communications director for the Republican National Committee.

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<v Speaker 1>Has where has the Republican Party go gone in your

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<v Speaker 1>in your opinion, I mean, is it gone to the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's party Trump wing? And is that permanent? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>where where did your Republican Party go? That's the million

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<v Speaker 1>dollar question. Uh. You know the funny thing about all

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<v Speaker 1>of this, and it's really not very funny that the

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<v Speaker 1>one thing that now Publicans behind the scenes are trying

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<v Speaker 1>to figure out is how how do they access how

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<v Speaker 1>do they unlock the lockbox that Trump has figured out

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<v Speaker 1>how to hold onto in that thirty percent, that sort

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<v Speaker 1>of core voter pool that is with him. The difficulty, though,

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<v Speaker 1>and Emily's point is absolutely right Capitol Hill is not

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<v Speaker 1>They are not wanting to talk anymore about twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>the leadership. There's a vacuum, right And the only thing

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<v Speaker 1>that continues to draw attention and continues to hold onto

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<v Speaker 1>those voters that are really hard the hardest to get

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<v Speaker 1>to is Trump. So I think that more than ever before,

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans are brightened to step up and stand up to him,

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<v Speaker 1>and so they're happier to talk about Alvin Bragg And

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, he's a He's become a household name over

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<v Speaker 1>the course of the last couple of months and years,

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<v Speaker 1>the party itself, though, is going to have to figure

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<v Speaker 1>out how to carve their own message out and talk

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<v Speaker 1>to the elector at that portion of the electorate that

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<v Speaker 1>stepped away from Trump in sixteen or excuse me that

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<v Speaker 1>we're with Trump in sixteen but stepped away from him

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty. Those are the voters. Those are like

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<v Speaker 1>middle class voters that are They're desperate for support, They're

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<v Speaker 1>desperate for help, they want to access the economy in

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<v Speaker 1>a way. It's different. So all right, Lisa, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us. Lisa's Camuso Miller partner, I

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<v Speaker 1>Reset Public Affairs, and Emily Wilkins from a Bloomberg News

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<v Speaker 1>joining us talking to us about this Trump in Diamond.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Team Cancer Line program, Bloomberg Markets

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<v Speaker 1>Weekdays and ten Amias Daring on Bloomberg dot Com, the

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<v Speaker 1>I Heart Radio app and the Bloomberg Business App. We're

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<v Speaker 1>listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. We welcome

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<v Speaker 1>now our Bloomberg TV viewers and radio listeners. The New

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<v Speaker 1>York International Also show begins on Friday to help us

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<v Speaker 1>prepare for its Jeremy pappin This On America's chairperson and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Matt Miller join us now, Matt, why don't you

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<v Speaker 1>kick things off? All right? Thanks? You know what I

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<v Speaker 1>would love to start with the IRA, Jeremy, And this

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<v Speaker 1>is the Inflation and Reduction Act that we all struggled

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<v Speaker 1>for so many months to understand. It's key because if

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<v Speaker 1>you get it right, consumers automatically get a seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars tax credit for buying your electric vehicles. But

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<v Speaker 1>if you get it wrong, they get Bob kiss and

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<v Speaker 1>you need the lower prices or given centis incentives. So

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<v Speaker 1>what have you got that I can get seventy five

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<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars off from Uncle sam on? And what are

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<v Speaker 1>you planning on putting out that's gonna be IRA compliant?

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<v Speaker 1>Good the good morning. Well today you've got a Nissan

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<v Speaker 1>Leaf that fully qualifies for the seventy five hundred dollar

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<v Speaker 1>tax incentive, and and you've got a Nissan Aria that

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<v Speaker 1>fully qualifies for the commercial leaves under the forty five

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<v Speaker 1>provision of the the IRA. So we've got two great

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<v Speaker 1>offerings in the market today, and we think the IRA

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<v Speaker 1>IS it's tremendous opportunity. The rules are clear now, the

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<v Speaker 1>framework is established for several years, and the company is

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<v Speaker 1>developing plants to be fully compliant with IRA. We will

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<v Speaker 1>be uh producing a number of EVS from our Campton

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<v Speaker 1>plant in Mississippi by the end of twenty twenty five

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<v Speaker 1>and and those and those vehicles would be fully compliant

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<v Speaker 1>with IRA. So I think we we welcome the IRA,

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<v Speaker 1>the clarity and the and the and and what it

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<v Speaker 1>means in terms of developing the EV demand and business

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the USA. In terms of EVS, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you did have the lead at one point. A lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people forget that Nissan was a pioneer right with

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<v Speaker 1>the Leaf and you still got that coming out. What

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<v Speaker 1>are the higher end vehicles that you can produce here?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I've driven the QX sixty from Infinity, I've

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<v Speaker 1>driven the QX aighty, fantastic vehicles, but they don't have

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<v Speaker 1>the battery powered um uh sort of forward thinking power

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<v Speaker 1>plant that that customers are going to need in ten years. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Look today again, it's it's Leaved that you mentioned. Is

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<v Speaker 1>Aria area is packed with technology. It's a it's a

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<v Speaker 1>it's an evy, so you get all the driving pleasure

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<v Speaker 1>out of it. We've enhanced the E force, which is

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<v Speaker 1>motion control, which provides you a sense of safety that

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<v Speaker 1>you know is unprecedented. The connected services in the car

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<v Speaker 1>is amazing. We've added a poor Pilot two point zero,

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<v Speaker 1>which is some you know, safety feature, and the autonomous

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<v Speaker 1>driving capability. So there's a lot of technology in an

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<v Speaker 1>area today and that's that starts at forty three thousand dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>so that's very competitive in the marketplace as well. Um

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<v Speaker 1>and and the future. You know, Nissan is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be launching about twenty seven new cars in the in

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<v Speaker 1>the next seven years, nineteen of which will be full

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<v Speaker 1>battery electric vehicles and most of which will come to

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<v Speaker 1>the US. We'll have an EV in every market that

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<v Speaker 1>is significant to the US customer. Jeremy, if I have

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<v Speaker 1>range anxiety and I want to stick with a traditional

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<v Speaker 1>combustion engine, what can you offer me? Are we moving

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<v Speaker 1>away from that too quickly? Now? I think you know

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<v Speaker 1>today the area is a three hundred miles EV already,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know it's a it's a it's a very

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<v Speaker 1>good range for the for the for the daily use

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<v Speaker 1>and the most commonly used routes in the US. I

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<v Speaker 1>understand the question and the charging experience. That's why the

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<v Speaker 1>charging experience is so important, and that's why the efforts

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<v Speaker 1>that are being put in place by private and public

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<v Speaker 1>you know, funding to deploy charging infrastructure is so important

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<v Speaker 1>because that's going to be critical to the to the

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<v Speaker 1>to the ev experience of the of the customer. So

0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:55.000
<v Speaker 1>I think it's it's a matter of of of the

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:58.960
<v Speaker 1>charging the charging network development. We at Nissan already have

0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:04.719
<v Speaker 1>a very well established charging network throughout dealer network and

0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:07.480
<v Speaker 1>thinking about technology of the future of the company is

0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:11.480
<v Speaker 1>investing into all solid state battery, which will you know,

0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:16.360
<v Speaker 1>double the power density, lower the charging time, definitely increase

0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 1>further the range. And so that's the future of breaks

0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 1>rain technology. The confidence in terms of the technology we're

0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.520
<v Speaker 1>bringing and the breakthroughs means you know, in twenty thirty,

0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:29.760
<v Speaker 1>we think ourselves of evs will largely exceed forty percent

0:13:29.880 --> 0:13:36.800
<v Speaker 1>of ourselves. So there will be an answer for all. Okay,

0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:39.440
<v Speaker 1>let's let's switch gears a little bit. I know you

0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:42.559
<v Speaker 1>can't switch gears an electric vehicle, but nevertheless, we'll do it. Um,

0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:44.960
<v Speaker 1>let's talk a little bit about where we are with

0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:48.079
<v Speaker 1>the daaler network. Jeremy, a year ago, if I'd gone

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>to the dealer network, The biggest concern would have been

0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:54.600
<v Speaker 1>the available of availability of inventory, the availability of newcasts

0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.880
<v Speaker 1>to buy. I wonder whether now the biggest concern that

0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:01.520
<v Speaker 1>the dealer network has is the certain manificant rise in

0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.559
<v Speaker 1>rates interest rates that we've seen over the last year,

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.240
<v Speaker 1>the fact the ECB everybody is raising rates right now,

0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 1>and I'm wondering what impact you see that having. It's

0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:15.559
<v Speaker 1>a very good question. I think you're right that availability

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.040
<v Speaker 1>was an issue. It's less of an issue today, but

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:22.160
<v Speaker 1>still delier inventories are very tight at Nissan, so the

0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:27.120
<v Speaker 1>market is clearly pulling. And today what we see in

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 1>terms of the market demand is that it's it's exceeding

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:35.000
<v Speaker 1>the production that we have. And where we're seeing a

0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 1>change in terms of the interest rates having is people

0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:44.320
<v Speaker 1>are shopping for entry segments. They're showing interest in the

0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:48.200
<v Speaker 1>entry segments that perhaps was less there a year ago.

0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.240
<v Speaker 1>For Nissan, it's good news because we've got a Versa,

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 1>we've got a center, we've got a Kicks. All of

0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 1>those are very strong value for many offerings in entry segments.

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 1>We have a very well established pres since great products.

0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 1>So the customer shopping shopping a Nissan that is shopping

0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.240
<v Speaker 1>for a price point given where interest rates are as

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:12.680
<v Speaker 1>an answer in our product lineup today, you're just the

0:15:12.760 --> 0:15:15.760
<v Speaker 1>product lineup today. Um, A lot of it is impressive

0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 1>to me. I love the z that's one that you

0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>can't make enough of, I'm sure. But Americans in general

0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:27.400
<v Speaker 1>like bigger things like the q X eight, like the Armada,

0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 1>like the Titan, and that's scheduled um for ending production.

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:33.880
<v Speaker 1>What are you gonna do about the big truck big

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:41.320
<v Speaker 1>suv segment beyond say twenty twenty five. The Titan, the Armada,

0:15:41.440 --> 0:15:44.360
<v Speaker 1>the q x X eight that you've mentioned, they're all

0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 1>very good business for us today. The large SUVs are

0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:54.160
<v Speaker 1>clearly an area where we are meeting customer demand and

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:58.560
<v Speaker 1>determined to remain very relevant in the in the marketplace.

0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 1>So these are these are good. These are good the

0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:05.520
<v Speaker 1>good segments for us in the works. Again, you can

0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.720
<v Speaker 1>find that you can find all of those vehicles as now.

0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:10.960
<v Speaker 1>But what about in twenty twenty six, I mean, aren't

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:14.040
<v Speaker 1>you going to end production of the Titan? Then the

0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:20.160
<v Speaker 1>Titan again, is it's fully available today We're working on

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:25.520
<v Speaker 1>remaining very relevant in the marketplace, working on the solutions

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:30.360
<v Speaker 1>around the trucks, that are to world's electrification as well. So, um,

0:16:31.120 --> 0:16:34.360
<v Speaker 1>the Titan as we know is, you know, is is

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.240
<v Speaker 1>meeting the customer and and and and we're working on

0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:41.880
<v Speaker 1>what can come next. Guys, we'll wrap it up there.

0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Really looking forward to the show, Jeremy. I'm sure Matt

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:46.760
<v Speaker 1>will be popping down to take a look at what's

0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 1>on offer. Jeremy, happened of Nissan And of course Bloomberg's

0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:54.080
<v Speaker 1>one and only Matt Miller. You're listening to the tape

0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 1>cans are live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am

0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.560
<v Speaker 1>Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the t Bloomberg dot Com, and

0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.399
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on

0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 1>Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say

0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:13.080
<v Speaker 1>Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. You want to focus on

0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:16.639
<v Speaker 1>Europe right now? Tomas and Nets, senior equity analyst. He

0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:20.639
<v Speaker 1>covers the European banks for bloomerket Intelligence. He's based in London. Toomas,

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.879
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us here, framaut for us,

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:26.679
<v Speaker 1>what you think the risk could be for European banks?

0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:29.399
<v Speaker 1>You know, we had Silicon Valley Bank here in the

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.920
<v Speaker 1>US and that kind of spook people got people focusing

0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:33.680
<v Speaker 1>on the health of the banks. What's the concern about

0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:37.040
<v Speaker 1>European banks and real estate? Hi, guys, thank you so

0:17:37.160 --> 0:17:39.120
<v Speaker 1>much for having me. Yes. Well, first of all, Yes,

0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:42.000
<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned, everybody is right now looking at commercial

0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:45.840
<v Speaker 1>real estate. This is the asset which everybody's focusing. After

0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:48.920
<v Speaker 1>SVB and crazy with drama. Everybody is trying to understand

0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:52.080
<v Speaker 1>what is the impact of high elevated interest rates on

0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:56.199
<v Speaker 1>highly leveraged the markets and commercial realistates take all the

0:17:56.240 --> 0:17:59.600
<v Speaker 1>boxes unfortunately, and when we look at the European banks,

0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 1>we are then in fact that there's nearly one point

0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.680
<v Speaker 1>four trillion of euros of cre loans on the balance

0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:08.760
<v Speaker 1>street at the moment. It is spread across European markets, UK, France,

0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:12.560
<v Speaker 1>Germany has the highest volumes. In terms of the exposure

0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:15.239
<v Speaker 1>as the persentage of total loans, Nordic banks actually are

0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:17.159
<v Speaker 1>screening the worst. They have more than ten percent of

0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:20.880
<v Speaker 1>the total loans versus around six to seven for European banks.

0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 1>And in terms of the risk, of course, there is

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.000
<v Speaker 1>a risk of refinancing, there is a risk of higher rates,

0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:27.240
<v Speaker 1>there is a risk of not repaying the debt on time,

0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:29.959
<v Speaker 1>so which for the banks. Means we can create some

0:18:30.000 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 1>imperment charges. Maybe there will be a right of even

0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:35.760
<v Speaker 1>ever happening, but it's not going to happen over one quarter.

0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:38.640
<v Speaker 1>If there's any stresses in the market, it's gonna take

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:41.960
<v Speaker 1>several quarters to play. But investors definitely want to understand

0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:45.479
<v Speaker 1>who is most exposed, whose portfolio is most vulnerable, and

0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:49.600
<v Speaker 1>how they will produce portfolio incoming quarters. What do we

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.560
<v Speaker 1>hear from regulators, what do we hear from the ECB?

0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the concern here Tamash as you know, is

0:18:56.080 --> 0:19:00.920
<v Speaker 1>that you know, the FED drop the ball or didn't

0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:04.040
<v Speaker 1>do anything with the ball. So is it gonna be

0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:07.639
<v Speaker 1>a different story in Europe? You know, that's very interesting

0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:10.439
<v Speaker 1>because it SB has been looking into cre market already

0:19:10.480 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 1>for a couple of years. I think in two thousand

0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:14.800
<v Speaker 1>and eighteen they started to collect data from the banks

0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.359
<v Speaker 1>on their explorer to the to the market. Sadly this

0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:20.119
<v Speaker 1>data is not available for public maybe it will be

0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:24.280
<v Speaker 1>right now, and it SB has had flagged already. Commercial

0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.160
<v Speaker 1>real estate market is one of the vulnerabilities even before

0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>SB and courage with drama right, So definitely it is

0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:33.399
<v Speaker 1>on the rather for the regulators. They may be looking

0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:36.399
<v Speaker 1>into introducing some macropodential measures to ease the pressure for

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.120
<v Speaker 1>the banks, to ease the pressure to to to stop

0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.080
<v Speaker 1>the financing maybe or make financing a little bit more safe.

0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.680
<v Speaker 1>So definitely sb IT has will have to look into

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:48.399
<v Speaker 1>this more more carefully. And it's all about what's going

0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:50.920
<v Speaker 1>to happen the interest racing coming months, right, whether they're

0:19:50.920 --> 0:19:53.359
<v Speaker 1>gonna be raising or not, and what is the policy

0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:56.159
<v Speaker 1>over there? And Toomas, I mean unlike here in the

0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:57.840
<v Speaker 1>US or we have a lot of regional banks that

0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:00.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe not may not be to take the risk.

0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:04.640
<v Speaker 1>Here in Europe, the real estate loans are from big,

0:20:04.760 --> 0:20:07.240
<v Speaker 1>big banks. So does that limit kind of the risk

0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:10.639
<v Speaker 1>a little bit or do they are you still concerned? Yes,

0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.199
<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned it right right, No, for the biggest

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:16.200
<v Speaker 1>banks H S, B, C, BNP and the laws like that,

0:20:16.720 --> 0:20:19.040
<v Speaker 1>it is around six to seven eight persons. For Nordics

0:20:19.040 --> 0:20:21.080
<v Speaker 1>banks a little bit more, it's more than ten persons,

0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:23.399
<v Speaker 1>so they are definitely more exposed. But also we are

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:26.600
<v Speaker 1>having we're having four Germans specialized banks which are just

0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:30.520
<v Speaker 1>doing commercial realized state financing. They are quite small, not

0:20:30.640 --> 0:20:33.879
<v Speaker 1>all of them are publicly publicly treaded so definitely there

0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:35.639
<v Speaker 1>would be kind of the Canary mind, you know, there

0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:37.160
<v Speaker 1>would be there, there would be bad way, Okay, what's

0:20:37.200 --> 0:20:39.640
<v Speaker 1>happening with the market these banks, these banks are which

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 1>are very much specializing only in creft financing. What's happening

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:47.399
<v Speaker 1>with those loans in the incoming quarter, in the reporting period.

0:20:47.640 --> 0:20:50.960
<v Speaker 1>That would definitely be a providing as youthful information. What

0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:53.119
<v Speaker 1>we can expect with other banks, all right, and we

0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:55.680
<v Speaker 1>can also expect is to get some good news or

0:20:55.760 --> 0:20:59.879
<v Speaker 1>good intelligence, good data. Bloomer Intelligence is holding an investor

0:21:00.000 --> 0:21:03.320
<v Speaker 1>event on April twentieth talking about real estate, the Real

0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:06.479
<v Speaker 1>Estate Summit twenty twenty three. Tell us about this uh

0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:10.160
<v Speaker 1>conference you guys are having. Is it? Is it in London? Yes,

0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:12.560
<v Speaker 1>it's based in London. It is organized by my colleagues

0:21:12.560 --> 0:21:15.080
<v Speaker 1>from the real estate team. So definitely were gathering all

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:18.120
<v Speaker 1>the specialists in the market. It is it is second

0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:19.840
<v Speaker 1>time we are organizing the even so a lots of

0:21:20.080 --> 0:21:23.159
<v Speaker 1>market participants special will be there talking about actually what

0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:25.320
<v Speaker 1>we are discussing at the moment, right, So definitely it's

0:21:25.320 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 1>gonna be on agenda so very much, you know, inviting

0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:30.399
<v Speaker 1>everyone who is interested in participating to learn more from

0:21:30.400 --> 0:21:33.480
<v Speaker 1>the market experts from Bloomberg Intelligence team as well from analysts,

0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:38.240
<v Speaker 1>from real estate specialists, to get the better understanding of

0:21:38.320 --> 0:21:40.399
<v Speaker 1>what's happening with the office prices in UK, you know,

0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:43.800
<v Speaker 1>in France and Germany, across all the capital cities. What

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:47.080
<v Speaker 1>are the expectations and how how this situation can play out?

0:21:47.560 --> 0:21:50.359
<v Speaker 1>All right, really interesting, so that so all our friends

0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:53.440
<v Speaker 1>in London they can check that out. Got to Bloomberg

0:21:53.480 --> 0:21:56.200
<v Speaker 1>dot com. They'll have some got the conferences sectionary. He'll

0:21:56.240 --> 0:21:58.640
<v Speaker 1>see some opportunities there to sign up for that. It's

0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:01.399
<v Speaker 1>in conjunction with the European Public Real Estate Association, So

0:22:01.520 --> 0:22:06.560
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence April twentieth in New York, Bloomberg Intelligence and EPRA.

0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:10.040
<v Speaker 1>It's the real Estate Finance Summit twenty twenty three. So

0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:12.240
<v Speaker 1>if you're in London, check that out, get the latest

0:22:12.760 --> 0:22:15.080
<v Speaker 1>on the real estate business and perhaps you know the

0:22:15.200 --> 0:22:18.560
<v Speaker 1>impact of the risks it means for some of the

0:22:18.640 --> 0:22:22.000
<v Speaker 1>European banks, and clearly that is a global issue. US

0:22:22.080 --> 0:22:24.240
<v Speaker 1>banks are being questioned and it's gonna be a real

0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:26.840
<v Speaker 1>focus for when the bank's report earnings in the next

0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:28.399
<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks. Is a lot of folks are going

0:22:28.440 --> 0:22:30.480
<v Speaker 1>to be spending a lot of time focusing on the

0:22:30.760 --> 0:22:34.240
<v Speaker 1>real estate exposure and maybe how they are reserved against that,

0:22:34.640 --> 0:22:36.560
<v Speaker 1>and what some of the risks will be for real estate.

0:22:36.600 --> 0:22:38.879
<v Speaker 1>So when the bank's report, it will be about deposits

0:22:39.440 --> 0:22:43.000
<v Speaker 1>and in some of their loan portfolio. You're listening to

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:46.720
<v Speaker 1>the team cancer a live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at

0:22:46.760 --> 0:22:49.720
<v Speaker 1>ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot com, the I Heart

0:22:49.800 --> 0:22:52.399
<v Speaker 1>Radio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on

0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:57.760
<v Speaker 1>demand wherever you get your podcast. We've got another guest

0:22:57.840 --> 0:23:00.880
<v Speaker 1>in studio. It's just like back into the days before

0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic and people would actually come into work, come

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:05.720
<v Speaker 1>into the office, come into the studio, and do this

0:23:05.760 --> 0:23:07.800
<v Speaker 1>stuff live. We're gonna talk regional banks here. There's a

0:23:07.840 --> 0:23:10.639
<v Speaker 1>lot to talk about. Obviously, we had the concern over

0:23:10.680 --> 0:23:12.720
<v Speaker 1>the last several weeks of some of these smaller regional

0:23:12.760 --> 0:23:16.600
<v Speaker 1>banks failing. That's obviously front and center. That spooked a

0:23:16.640 --> 0:23:20.959
<v Speaker 1>lot of people about the overall banking industry. Now we've

0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 1>got an additional headwind, which is kind of real estate

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:26.000
<v Speaker 1>loans and how that may be an issue for some

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:27.960
<v Speaker 1>of the banks. So let's bring in Herman Channy covers

0:23:28.000 --> 0:23:31.600
<v Speaker 1>the regional banks for Bloomberg Intelligence. He doesn't phone it in,

0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:33.240
<v Speaker 1>he doesn't mail it, and he comes into the office,

0:23:33.280 --> 0:23:36.119
<v Speaker 1>and we appreciate that he's in the studio here. Herman

0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 1>talked to us about when you talk to introditional investor

0:23:38.600 --> 0:23:41.879
<v Speaker 1>clients these days, where are they in kind of the

0:23:42.840 --> 0:23:47.679
<v Speaker 1>fear factor for the industry. Have we passed that initial

0:23:47.880 --> 0:23:50.399
<v Speaker 1>panic that we had a few weeks ago and a

0:23:50.440 --> 0:23:52.480
<v Speaker 1>little bit more rational out there? Maybe? Yeah, I think

0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:56.520
<v Speaker 1>the panic has receded for the industry. You're right, but

0:23:57.640 --> 0:24:00.440
<v Speaker 1>there are certain banks that are still in the cares

0:24:00.440 --> 0:24:03.200
<v Speaker 1>of the market. We can point to Western Alliance today.

0:24:04.040 --> 0:24:06.760
<v Speaker 1>But in terms of the industry itself, at least from

0:24:06.800 --> 0:24:08.720
<v Speaker 1>the FED data that we look at, it does seem

0:24:08.800 --> 0:24:12.680
<v Speaker 1>like the emergency bar rings from banks from the discount

0:24:12.720 --> 0:24:16.000
<v Speaker 1>window and also the new bank term funding program, those

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:18.240
<v Speaker 1>have the client which I think is a positive sign

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:21.639
<v Speaker 1>that banks can manage their liquidity issues without needing to

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:24.640
<v Speaker 1>tap these emergency measures. All right, you mentioned Western Alliance

0:24:24.760 --> 0:24:27.560
<v Speaker 1>stocks down fifteen percent today. What's the story there? Yeah,

0:24:27.600 --> 0:24:32.000
<v Speaker 1>So Western Alliance came out with an updates yesterday after

0:24:32.119 --> 0:24:35.880
<v Speaker 1>the market close and offered a bunch of interesting metrics

0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:39.879
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the uninsured deposits. Sixty eight percent of

0:24:39.960 --> 0:24:43.720
<v Speaker 1>their deposits are now insured versus fifty five percent a

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:46.680
<v Speaker 1>couple weeks back, so that's a positive sign. They also

0:24:46.800 --> 0:24:50.439
<v Speaker 1>mentioned that they didn't tap the discount window at quarter end,

0:24:50.520 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 1>so that seems like a positive sign. But interesting enough,

0:24:53.359 --> 0:24:57.400
<v Speaker 1>they didn't give any disclosures on the amount of deposits

0:24:57.440 --> 0:25:01.200
<v Speaker 1>on their balance sheet at quarter end, so the markets

0:25:01.240 --> 0:25:03.399
<v Speaker 1>a bit spooked in terms of why they did disclose

0:25:03.480 --> 0:25:07.960
<v Speaker 1>these numbers when they were pretty open about disclosing other numbers.

0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:10.600
<v Speaker 1>So that's that's a number that gets disclosed by these

0:25:10.760 --> 0:25:13.680
<v Speaker 1>companies in their quarterly filings typically, right, so they would

0:25:13.720 --> 0:25:16.520
<v Speaker 1>disclose this when they report their earnings, which is in

0:25:16.560 --> 0:25:19.800
<v Speaker 1>a couple of weeks. But they pre reported a bunch

0:25:19.840 --> 0:25:23.199
<v Speaker 1>of other metrics, but not probably the most important metrics

0:25:23.280 --> 0:25:26.159
<v Speaker 1>that investors are focused on now. So that's that's what's

0:25:26.160 --> 0:25:28.720
<v Speaker 1>spooking the market. Investors are looking for a lot of

0:25:29.160 --> 0:25:31.600
<v Speaker 1>data from the FED. Right, what do we see in

0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:34.159
<v Speaker 1>terms of borrowing at the discount window and in this

0:25:34.280 --> 0:25:39.880
<v Speaker 1>new facility. Yeah, so the discount window peaked two weeks ago.

0:25:40.440 --> 0:25:45.560
<v Speaker 1>The disclosure went when the direct aftermath of spob um,

0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:52.000
<v Speaker 1>those discount window borrowings have declined sequentially each week thereafter,

0:25:52.680 --> 0:25:56.520
<v Speaker 1>and the new bank term program is a bit more

0:25:57.160 --> 0:26:00.480
<v Speaker 1>generous in the way the borrowings work with the FED.

0:26:00.600 --> 0:26:04.080
<v Speaker 1>So you're you're seeing those numbers go up, but the overall,

0:26:04.119 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 1>if you combine those to the overall borrowings from the

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:09.960
<v Speaker 1>FED are coming down, which is a good sign. What

0:26:10.080 --> 0:26:13.879
<v Speaker 1>are we seeing then, in terms of lending from these banks?

0:26:14.080 --> 0:26:21.320
<v Speaker 1>You know, even if rates come down or frankly, whether

0:26:21.359 --> 0:26:23.640
<v Speaker 1>they go up, it doesn't matter if banks aren't giving

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:28.080
<v Speaker 1>out loans right right, we can make the inference that

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:33.760
<v Speaker 1>if banks are seeing deposits go out the door, that

0:26:33.960 --> 0:26:38.119
<v Speaker 1>there's probably less interest for banks to really ratchet up

0:26:38.160 --> 0:26:41.840
<v Speaker 1>their their appetite to lend. I think that's really the

0:26:42.320 --> 0:26:47.080
<v Speaker 1>issue for the overall economy that banks could probably have

0:26:47.280 --> 0:26:51.639
<v Speaker 1>less willingness to to to increase their their lending because

0:26:51.760 --> 0:26:54.360
<v Speaker 1>there there's not a lot of funding available to them

0:26:54.520 --> 0:26:58.280
<v Speaker 1>at advantageous prices. So you're seeing funding costs rise, so

0:26:58.560 --> 0:27:04.480
<v Speaker 1>that that inherently means that loan rates and borrowing rates

0:27:04.520 --> 0:27:08.200
<v Speaker 1>will have to increase as well, and that could affect

0:27:08.359 --> 0:27:11.119
<v Speaker 1>both the demand for loans and the supply of loans.

0:27:11.840 --> 0:27:14.440
<v Speaker 1>So let's switch gears a little bit on the regional banks.

0:27:14.520 --> 0:27:19.080
<v Speaker 1>Another potential headwind for the banks is real estate. And

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:23.359
<v Speaker 1>we were just talking to Thomas Nutzel Bloomber Intelligence. He's

0:27:23.400 --> 0:27:25.680
<v Speaker 1>summarizing the risk for the European banks. How about for

0:27:25.760 --> 0:27:28.760
<v Speaker 1>the regional banks here in the United States? Is there

0:27:28.760 --> 0:27:31.080
<v Speaker 1>a concern? If so, what does the concern kind of

0:27:31.200 --> 0:27:36.080
<v Speaker 1>circle around real estate? Right? So, commercial real estate is

0:27:36.800 --> 0:27:39.639
<v Speaker 1>something that's become more and more of an issue. It

0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:45.520
<v Speaker 1>was starting to percolate during the pandemic period when folks

0:27:45.600 --> 0:27:48.639
<v Speaker 1>weren't going into the office and there was not a

0:27:48.720 --> 0:27:52.119
<v Speaker 1>lot of travel, so hotel loans were another issue. It

0:27:52.200 --> 0:27:54.720
<v Speaker 1>seems like now the focus is more on office than

0:27:54.800 --> 0:27:59.280
<v Speaker 1>anything else because you're seeing these loans reach their maturity

0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:01.960
<v Speaker 1>this year, next year, and the year after, and the

0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:05.359
<v Speaker 1>cash flows of these office loans have really been challenged

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:09.920
<v Speaker 1>by less occupancy, less folks coming into the office, so

0:28:11.280 --> 0:28:15.680
<v Speaker 1>the real estate has and square footage has really come down.

0:28:15.720 --> 0:28:18.240
<v Speaker 1>The needs for those real estate square footage has come down,

0:28:18.960 --> 0:28:21.760
<v Speaker 1>So all that means that there's less cash flow more

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:24.920
<v Speaker 1>in higher vacancies, meaning there's it's going to be a

0:28:25.040 --> 0:28:30.280
<v Speaker 1>challenge for the folks that own these properties to refinance

0:28:30.400 --> 0:28:33.040
<v Speaker 1>given that rates are higher and your cash flows are lower,

0:28:33.160 --> 0:28:35.359
<v Speaker 1>so that something has to give. They either have to

0:28:35.440 --> 0:28:41.400
<v Speaker 1>inject more equity into these loans or they may have

0:28:41.600 --> 0:28:44.280
<v Speaker 1>to give the key back to the borrowers. So those

0:28:44.320 --> 0:28:47.520
<v Speaker 1>are things where we're focused on and tracking, but it's

0:28:47.560 --> 0:28:49.480
<v Speaker 1>going to be a longer term story that will play

0:28:49.520 --> 0:28:52.800
<v Speaker 1>out over the next few years. So Herman, let's say

0:28:52.920 --> 0:28:54.800
<v Speaker 1>a big client calls you up at the end of quarter.

0:28:54.880 --> 0:28:56.800
<v Speaker 1>He says, listen, I gotta put a lot of money

0:28:56.880 --> 0:29:00.800
<v Speaker 1>here into action. Which regional banks do I buy? You know, pick,

0:29:01.000 --> 0:29:02.840
<v Speaker 1>pick your top three? What do you what do I

0:29:02.960 --> 0:29:06.160
<v Speaker 1>want right now? Sure, you want a bank that has

0:29:06.400 --> 0:29:10.080
<v Speaker 1>demonstrated the ability to manage interest rate risking. No, I

0:29:10.080 --> 0:29:12.480
<v Speaker 1>mean I want the names of the banks. I'll give

0:29:12.520 --> 0:29:14.960
<v Speaker 1>them to you now. So you look at the banks

0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:17.600
<v Speaker 1>that have the track record. You can look at banks

0:29:17.680 --> 0:29:24.240
<v Speaker 1>like PNC mnc US bank that have strong management teams,

0:29:25.160 --> 0:29:29.120
<v Speaker 1>have managed risks pretty definitely over multiple periods, and they've

0:29:29.160 --> 0:29:32.000
<v Speaker 1>been around the block, and they understand credit risk, they

0:29:32.080 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 1>understand interest rate risks. So those are the ones that

0:29:35.400 --> 0:29:38.520
<v Speaker 1>have been affected by this downturn in banks, then, so

0:29:38.800 --> 0:29:42.120
<v Speaker 1>prices seem earlier reasons to repeat it slowly for those

0:29:42.480 --> 0:29:47.360
<v Speaker 1>uh driving along, get out your pencil. PNC, US Bank,

0:29:47.560 --> 0:29:51.360
<v Speaker 1>M and T and US Bank now full disclosure. Herman

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:53.800
<v Speaker 1>used to work at M ANDT in investor Relationshi is

0:29:53.920 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 1>that's right? That's right. You own the shares. I do

0:29:57.400 --> 0:30:00.880
<v Speaker 1>own some residual shares from some Oh thank god you

0:30:00.920 --> 0:30:03.440
<v Speaker 1>got that out there. What if? What if you so

0:30:03.480 --> 0:30:06.280
<v Speaker 1>you moved to Buffalo? I did. I moved from New

0:30:06.360 --> 0:30:08.120
<v Speaker 1>York City to Buffalo for the role. Have you ever

0:30:08.280 --> 0:30:13.840
<v Speaker 1>jumped on a table? I have broken it. That's what

0:30:13.920 --> 0:30:16.640
<v Speaker 1>the Buffalo Bills do. Dude, Okay, you not see that?

0:30:17.640 --> 0:30:21.400
<v Speaker 1>It's yeah, it's a It's something that Bills mafia fans

0:30:21.480 --> 0:30:25.800
<v Speaker 1>do so but I haven't unfortunately, haven't had the opportunity

0:30:25.800 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 1>to do that. But would love to go back and

0:30:28.040 --> 0:30:32.959
<v Speaker 1>see a Bills game and partake in all those. I mean,

0:30:33.040 --> 0:30:35.960
<v Speaker 1>they are die hard fans up there, and that's interesting.

0:30:36.000 --> 0:30:38.400
<v Speaker 1>That's a good bank, quality bank. I usually use that

0:30:38.440 --> 0:30:40.880
<v Speaker 1>as one of my kind of benchmarks for regional banks.

0:30:40.920 --> 0:30:44.640
<v Speaker 1>And then P and C H Pittsburgh National Corporation or

0:30:44.800 --> 0:30:47.000
<v Speaker 1>used to be P and D Pittsburgh National Bank. I

0:30:47.120 --> 0:30:49.400
<v Speaker 1>think so some good stuff there, US Bank as well.

0:30:49.600 --> 0:30:52.400
<v Speaker 1>All right, regional banks some issues, but they seem to

0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:56.040
<v Speaker 1>have weathered at least the initial wave of concern that

0:30:56.160 --> 0:30:58.160
<v Speaker 1>we saw several weeks ago, and now people are gonna

0:30:58.160 --> 0:31:00.480
<v Speaker 1>be focusing on the banks when they report their quarterly

0:31:00.520 --> 0:31:03.320
<v Speaker 1>earnings coming up, Herman Chan, thank you so much for

0:31:03.440 --> 0:31:05.640
<v Speaker 1>joining us yet again. As we wind our way through

0:31:05.680 --> 0:31:08.360
<v Speaker 1>this regional banks story, Herman Chann, he covers the regional

0:31:08.360 --> 0:31:10.280
<v Speaker 1>banks from Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us here in a

0:31:10.360 --> 0:31:13.920
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive broker studio as he is wanted to do.

0:31:15.200 --> 0:31:18.600
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the team cancer a live program Bloomberg

0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:22.160
<v Speaker 1>Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern, Bloomberg dot Com, the

0:31:22.280 --> 0:31:25.000
<v Speaker 1>I Heart Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. We're

0:31:25.040 --> 0:31:29.959
<v Speaker 1>listening on demand wherever you get your podcast. Let's get

0:31:30.080 --> 0:31:33.000
<v Speaker 1>right to our next guest, Dan Ives, Managing Director Senior

0:31:33.040 --> 0:31:34.840
<v Speaker 1>Echo to analyst. He covers all the tech stuff for

0:31:35.040 --> 0:31:38.360
<v Speaker 1>web Bush Securities. Dan, thanks so much for joining us again.

0:31:38.360 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 1>We appreciate getting some of your time here. I want

0:31:40.520 --> 0:31:42.479
<v Speaker 1>to start with there's a million ways we can go here.

0:31:42.480 --> 0:31:44.680
<v Speaker 1>But I want to start with Tesla. It seemed like

0:31:44.800 --> 0:31:46.600
<v Speaker 1>they had a good delivery number. I know there was

0:31:46.600 --> 0:31:48.600
<v Speaker 1>a number of the people were looking at, but the

0:31:48.680 --> 0:31:51.000
<v Speaker 1>stock markets not buying it over the past couple of days.

0:31:51.000 --> 0:31:53.680
<v Speaker 1>What do you make of it? Yeah, I mean, look,

0:31:53.760 --> 0:31:56.560
<v Speaker 1>this was obviously a lot of hype that we've seen

0:31:56.560 --> 0:31:58.640
<v Speaker 1>in terms of what the stocks done this year post

0:31:58.680 --> 0:32:01.440
<v Speaker 1>of price cuts. I view it as a strong number.

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:03.800
<v Speaker 1>I just think some of the bulls were hoping from

0:32:03.840 --> 0:32:06.320
<v Speaker 1>more in terms of a bigger beat. And now this

0:32:06.560 --> 0:32:09.160
<v Speaker 1>is sort of the drum roll into earnings April nineteenth

0:32:09.200 --> 0:32:11.840
<v Speaker 1>to see what margins are doing. I think they're able

0:32:11.880 --> 0:32:13.880
<v Speaker 1>to hold a line. I think this knee jerk is

0:32:13.960 --> 0:32:16.840
<v Speaker 1>just sort of a sort of selling the news. We're

0:32:16.920 --> 0:32:19.640
<v Speaker 1>buyers here on weakness. Yeah, it should be noted that

0:32:20.160 --> 0:32:24.160
<v Speaker 1>the number was better than the street's estimate, so they

0:32:24.280 --> 0:32:28.040
<v Speaker 1>beat Not only did they post record deliveries in the quarter,

0:32:28.200 --> 0:32:32.240
<v Speaker 1>but they beat what the average estimate of analysts had suggested.

0:32:32.280 --> 0:32:37.760
<v Speaker 1>They would post our analysts just you know, sandbagging them.

0:32:37.840 --> 0:32:41.760
<v Speaker 1>Here's what's the story. Look, I think it's always hard

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:44.800
<v Speaker 1>to peg the number because of the price cuts. Because

0:32:44.800 --> 0:32:48.080
<v Speaker 1>obviously since the price cuts that they did earlier this quarter.

0:32:48.200 --> 0:32:51.480
<v Speaker 1>That's been a huge catalyst, specifically in China. So the

0:32:51.680 --> 0:32:54.200
<v Speaker 1>numbers moved around a lot. And look, I think the

0:32:54.320 --> 0:32:56.720
<v Speaker 1>big thing here is they are on a trajectory for

0:32:56.800 --> 0:32:59.800
<v Speaker 1>one point eight million for the year in terms of units,

0:32:59.840 --> 0:33:03.360
<v Speaker 1>and you look in the neighborhood of autos, it's still

0:33:03.440 --> 0:33:06.240
<v Speaker 1>Tessa's world. Everyone else's paying rent. And I think that's

0:33:06.280 --> 0:33:09.600
<v Speaker 1>what continues to stick out here despite this sella. Are

0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:12.840
<v Speaker 1>the prices, you know, I mean the prices were too

0:33:12.960 --> 0:33:16.040
<v Speaker 1>high obviously, that's why they cut them. But now that

0:33:16.240 --> 0:33:19.320
<v Speaker 1>rates continue to climb, is it just unaffordable for too

0:33:19.360 --> 0:33:23.120
<v Speaker 1>many people to cover that monthly nut? Yeah, Matt, I

0:33:23.240 --> 0:33:27.160
<v Speaker 1>think here it's really they're trying to find the level

0:33:27.640 --> 0:33:30.959
<v Speaker 1>where they could cut prices stimulate demand, but also mean

0:33:31.080 --> 0:33:35.040
<v Speaker 1>team margins. It's a tight rope, especially in China. There's

0:33:35.280 --> 0:33:38.040
<v Speaker 1>essentially i'll call Mini to monitor a price war breaking

0:33:38.120 --> 0:33:41.000
<v Speaker 1>out at a time where the macro is still cloudy.

0:33:41.080 --> 0:33:43.600
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's even though we're still in the

0:33:43.680 --> 0:33:47.479
<v Speaker 1>second ending of the ev arms race GM others board,

0:33:47.920 --> 0:33:50.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, for TESTA right now, this is it's a

0:33:50.280 --> 0:33:52.920
<v Speaker 1>critical three to six months to put an iron fence

0:33:52.960 --> 0:33:57.440
<v Speaker 1>around their installed these. So, Dan, with the price cuts,

0:33:57.640 --> 0:34:00.760
<v Speaker 1>what does that do to the test a margin story,

0:34:00.800 --> 0:34:05.400
<v Speaker 1>the profitability story. Well, they are uniquely positioned because of

0:34:05.480 --> 0:34:08.600
<v Speaker 1>their scale globally that they're able to cut prices and

0:34:08.719 --> 0:34:12.719
<v Speaker 1>some still have margins, you know, significantly above the industry,

0:34:13.640 --> 0:34:16.200
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's going to be the narrative when

0:34:16.200 --> 0:34:18.800
<v Speaker 1>they are port earnings in a few weeks. But the

0:34:18.920 --> 0:34:21.320
<v Speaker 1>big question is will they have to cut more to

0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:24.759
<v Speaker 1>stimulate demand? I think, look, it's mere term pain for

0:34:24.880 --> 0:34:27.480
<v Speaker 1>long term gain because if they don't and just sit

0:34:27.560 --> 0:34:30.400
<v Speaker 1>there and keep prices where they are, especially going back

0:34:30.400 --> 0:34:32.279
<v Speaker 1>a few months ago, that would have been the wrong move.

0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:35.560
<v Speaker 1>I think it's the right strategic polker move. The stocks

0:34:35.600 --> 0:34:38.120
<v Speaker 1>obviously had a you know, a huge run from the

0:34:38.239 --> 0:34:41.200
<v Speaker 1>bottom and now it's really what I've used for the

0:34:41.400 --> 0:34:44.400
<v Speaker 1>next step in the growth story with China front and center,

0:34:44.760 --> 0:34:47.320
<v Speaker 1>as just eed, arms race placed out globally, both in

0:34:47.440 --> 0:34:49.080
<v Speaker 1>China as well as in the US and the three

0:34:49.160 --> 0:34:52.440
<v Speaker 1>WIN three area code with GM and FOURD aggressively going

0:34:52.480 --> 0:34:57.319
<v Speaker 1>after evs. So again, how do you think as your

0:34:57.440 --> 0:35:00.600
<v Speaker 1>view of EV demand changed at all? Dan, I know

0:35:00.680 --> 0:35:03.800
<v Speaker 1>there's some concerns out there when you see price cuts,

0:35:03.800 --> 0:35:06.000
<v Speaker 1>that kind of calls into question what the ultimate demand

0:35:06.239 --> 0:35:09.800
<v Speaker 1>is out there. Well, I think when you think a

0:35:09.840 --> 0:35:12.480
<v Speaker 1>step back in the US, less than three percent of

0:35:12.560 --> 0:35:15.640
<v Speaker 1>automobiles or evs, we weave that goes to ten percent

0:35:16.200 --> 0:35:18.920
<v Speaker 1>in the next three years, So the demand story is

0:35:19.000 --> 0:35:22.120
<v Speaker 1>going to be there. I think the issue really comes

0:35:22.160 --> 0:35:24.960
<v Speaker 1>down to prices. Now the tax credit has come through,

0:35:25.280 --> 0:35:28.480
<v Speaker 1>which is a positive, but that's really going to be

0:35:28.560 --> 0:35:32.120
<v Speaker 1>the question in terms of competition. And I don't view

0:35:32.160 --> 0:35:34.480
<v Speaker 1>it as a zero some game. I view this as

0:35:34.560 --> 0:35:37.040
<v Speaker 1>just a mass of what I'll call green tidal wave

0:35:37.400 --> 0:35:39.920
<v Speaker 1>that's going to benefit not just Tesla, the likes of

0:35:40.080 --> 0:35:43.600
<v Speaker 1>GM for short plays like Goose and others, and in China,

0:35:43.960 --> 0:35:46.680
<v Speaker 1>I think Neo is probably the one or with DYD

0:35:46.840 --> 0:35:50.719
<v Speaker 1>that sticks out the domestic plays dan if If EV

0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:55.960
<v Speaker 1>demand is that strong, if sales are as robust as

0:35:56.000 --> 0:35:59.719
<v Speaker 1>you expect them to be, how on earth are we

0:36:00.080 --> 0:36:02.920
<v Speaker 1>to power all of those vehicles? I mean, we can

0:36:03.640 --> 0:36:07.440
<v Speaker 1>already not power the small amount of evs that sit

0:36:07.520 --> 0:36:12.000
<v Speaker 1>in California today. What will we do if the inventory

0:36:12.080 --> 0:36:16.320
<v Speaker 1>doubles or triples? You just now then, because that's the

0:36:16.440 --> 0:36:19.160
<v Speaker 1>big issue in the Beltway because it's the carrot and

0:36:19.200 --> 0:36:21.080
<v Speaker 1>the stink. You want to move to green, you want

0:36:21.080 --> 0:36:24.719
<v Speaker 1>to move to evs need the utilities, need charging statitions.

0:36:25.280 --> 0:36:27.240
<v Speaker 1>Just to give numbers, we have one hundred ten thousand

0:36:27.320 --> 0:36:30.400
<v Speaker 1>charging statitions in the United States. We need five hundred

0:36:30.440 --> 0:36:34.359
<v Speaker 1>thousand to get to twenty percent EV penetration. There's going

0:36:34.400 --> 0:36:36.800
<v Speaker 1>to need to be a lot of government funding around

0:36:36.840 --> 0:36:40.240
<v Speaker 1>this from a grid perspective and charging stations to ultimately

0:36:40.280 --> 0:36:42.680
<v Speaker 1>build this out, especially when you have the biggest US

0:36:42.800 --> 0:36:47.239
<v Speaker 1>automakers going fully ev GM over the next decade. Why

0:36:47.280 --> 0:36:49.960
<v Speaker 1>do you think we don't see EV charging stations at

0:36:50.000 --> 0:36:53.680
<v Speaker 1>every gas station? I mean, why don't the big raw

0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:58.160
<v Speaker 1>duct Shell or BP or you know, Sonoco seventy six.

0:36:58.200 --> 0:37:01.080
<v Speaker 1>Why don't they get on board. They've had years and

0:37:01.360 --> 0:37:04.080
<v Speaker 1>years to do it, so it can't be a time issue.

0:37:04.520 --> 0:37:08.319
<v Speaker 1>Are they fighting against it? Well, look, I think part

0:37:08.400 --> 0:37:10.960
<v Speaker 1>of it is just the economic decision in terms of

0:37:11.040 --> 0:37:13.600
<v Speaker 1>especially real estate. For every gas station you know that

0:37:13.719 --> 0:37:16.759
<v Speaker 1>that are obviously owned by individuals, do they want to

0:37:16.800 --> 0:37:20.279
<v Speaker 1>give that up? Doesn't make sense mathematically given what it

0:37:20.440 --> 0:37:23.360
<v Speaker 1>looks like today in terms of EV as a penetration story,

0:37:23.719 --> 0:37:26.040
<v Speaker 1>you clearly see more of that in China, more of

0:37:26.120 --> 0:37:28.880
<v Speaker 1>that in Europe, and a lot of this hack contender.

0:37:29.400 --> 0:37:32.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's really the biggest you're fighting the tide here,

0:37:33.080 --> 0:37:36.239
<v Speaker 1>but so far it's sort of a game of you know,

0:37:36.800 --> 0:37:39.160
<v Speaker 1>roll call high stakes poker that they're playing. In so

0:37:39.320 --> 0:37:42.239
<v Speaker 1>far for them, it's been the right decision because it's

0:37:42.320 --> 0:37:45.879
<v Speaker 1>Tessa and the Supercharger network that is essentially built out

0:37:45.960 --> 0:37:49.480
<v Speaker 1>within the US EV demand. Right. All right, Dan, let's

0:37:49.560 --> 0:37:51.800
<v Speaker 1>switch gears because we can always switch gears with you

0:37:51.920 --> 0:37:56.880
<v Speaker 1>and you pivot fine. Apple Bloombard BusinessWeek is the great story.

0:37:56.960 --> 0:38:00.000
<v Speaker 1>Dan Mark German is out saying Apple looks beyond China

0:38:00.239 --> 0:38:05.280
<v Speaker 1>in Bidjory make Cook's supply chains. In reality, can Apple

0:38:05.360 --> 0:38:08.399
<v Speaker 1>diversify away from China in terms of its supply chain

0:38:08.440 --> 0:38:11.680
<v Speaker 1>and if so, how long will that take? Well, German,

0:38:11.960 --> 0:38:14.160
<v Speaker 1>you know there's Apple as well as anyone out there,

0:38:14.360 --> 0:38:17.560
<v Speaker 1>look realistically, and it's part of why Cook was in

0:38:17.680 --> 0:38:20.200
<v Speaker 1>China last week. I mean, that is the hearts and

0:38:20.320 --> 0:38:22.520
<v Speaker 1>lungs of Apple, and they could talk to Game. But

0:38:23.480 --> 0:38:26.120
<v Speaker 1>if they aggressively went after it in the next two

0:38:26.239 --> 0:38:29.400
<v Speaker 1>years max, they can move five to seven percent production

0:38:29.440 --> 0:38:32.279
<v Speaker 1>app of China now of course India, Vietnam and some

0:38:32.400 --> 0:38:35.239
<v Speaker 1>other areas. But you know that is right now the

0:38:35.360 --> 0:38:37.759
<v Speaker 1>tight rope for Apple because that is one of the

0:38:37.920 --> 0:38:42.479
<v Speaker 1>key ingredients and their success in the geopolitical essentially cold

0:38:42.520 --> 0:38:46.960
<v Speaker 1>tech board that's playing out. But Coopertina can percent politician,

0:38:47.440 --> 0:38:49.759
<v Speaker 1>you know, in terms of what Cook's being able to do,

0:38:49.880 --> 0:38:54.200
<v Speaker 1>and that's how they've been able to navigate this. So

0:38:54.440 --> 0:38:57.640
<v Speaker 1>thinking about it here, I mean, if I'm an Apple,

0:38:57.880 --> 0:38:59.839
<v Speaker 1>I'm you know, if I'm Apple, I'm happy. I gotta

0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:03.279
<v Speaker 1>great story, great tailin But boy, my China risk is

0:39:03.320 --> 0:39:06.359
<v Speaker 1>almost as large as it's ever been really, and it's

0:39:06.440 --> 0:39:09.600
<v Speaker 1>not going away, is it. It's not going away? And

0:39:09.880 --> 0:39:13.160
<v Speaker 1>but look if they if they decide to build production

0:39:13.239 --> 0:39:15.640
<v Speaker 1>in New Jersey, those are going to be awesome thirty

0:39:15.680 --> 0:39:19.239
<v Speaker 1>five hundred hour iPhones. And that's the problem is that

0:39:19.480 --> 0:39:22.879
<v Speaker 1>to keep prices where they are key production. To look

0:39:22.960 --> 0:39:25.800
<v Speaker 1>at this balance China is a hard and one. It

0:39:25.920 --> 0:39:28.480
<v Speaker 1>is a geopolitical risk, and it's also why they have

0:39:28.560 --> 0:39:31.920
<v Speaker 1>to navigate that. But also at peak iPhone, they're the

0:39:32.000 --> 0:39:35.600
<v Speaker 1>second biggest employer within China. Beijing loves have an Apple

0:39:35.680 --> 0:39:39.200
<v Speaker 1>and on the trophy Kese Dan what do you like

0:39:39.440 --> 0:39:42.880
<v Speaker 1>that you know, Tom Keane talks about this bifurcation, the

0:39:43.040 --> 0:39:46.320
<v Speaker 1>rich getting richer. It's the big profitable tech companies that

0:39:46.920 --> 0:39:49.160
<v Speaker 1>have done so well in the first quarter, as you know,

0:39:50.440 --> 0:39:52.920
<v Speaker 1>what are we missing in terms of the smaller companies,

0:39:53.000 --> 0:39:55.960
<v Speaker 1>those that we haven't heard of, the you know, up

0:39:56.000 --> 0:39:59.719
<v Speaker 1>and coming We would have once called them maybe unicorns

0:39:59.800 --> 0:40:02.200
<v Speaker 1>or are possibly a little beyond that. But what do

0:40:02.280 --> 0:40:05.839
<v Speaker 1>you see out there that you like that's not Apple? Yeah,

0:40:05.920 --> 0:40:08.719
<v Speaker 1>I think it's Keen summarized so well. The strong will

0:40:08.800 --> 0:40:11.560
<v Speaker 1>get stronger, and we've seen that in the first quart

0:40:11.680 --> 0:40:15.880
<v Speaker 1>especially Microsoft Redman terms. I'm from a software perspective. I

0:40:16.040 --> 0:40:19.800
<v Speaker 1>think it's really going to be it's smidcap and cybersecurity

0:40:19.800 --> 0:40:22.319
<v Speaker 1>in cloud. I mean, there's your names like I look

0:40:22.400 --> 0:40:25.160
<v Speaker 1>at names like data Dogs, Snowflake. You look at in

0:40:25.280 --> 0:40:29.399
<v Speaker 1>cybersecurity names like CrowdStrike and others. I think that's where

0:40:29.480 --> 0:40:33.120
<v Speaker 1>this first quarter. I view this as really the start

0:40:33.239 --> 0:40:36.800
<v Speaker 1>putting more gasoline in this tech rally rather than something

0:40:36.880 --> 0:40:40.520
<v Speaker 1>that I hear. All right, Dan, great stuff. Appreciate it

0:40:40.640 --> 0:40:43.920
<v Speaker 1>as always. Dan. I'ves managing director and senior equity analysts

0:40:43.960 --> 0:40:46.200
<v Speaker 1>for Webbush Securities were left checking in with Dan getting

0:40:46.200 --> 0:40:49.719
<v Speaker 1>the latest on all things at tech. You're listening to

0:40:49.800 --> 0:40:53.319
<v Speaker 1>the tape cancer our Line program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at

0:40:53.360 --> 0:40:56.439
<v Speaker 1>ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app,

0:40:56.480 --> 0:40:59.359
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can

0:40:59.400 --> 0:41:02.640
<v Speaker 1>also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

0:41:02.719 --> 0:41:08.520
<v Speaker 1>York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. You're

0:41:08.600 --> 0:41:10.600
<v Speaker 1>here to tell us about FedEx, which, by the way,

0:41:10.600 --> 0:41:13.080
<v Speaker 1>so Chridy's always pushing the FedEx story. I think it's

0:41:13.200 --> 0:41:16.520
<v Speaker 1>very important, but a lot of people don't don't want

0:41:16.560 --> 0:41:19.080
<v Speaker 1>to hear it. Why not, I don't know, because this

0:41:19.160 --> 0:41:21.080
<v Speaker 1>is riveting stuff. I'll tell you, this is more riveting

0:41:21.120 --> 0:41:23.319
<v Speaker 1>than the Trump stuff. I gotta say. FedEx is an

0:41:23.520 --> 0:41:26.560
<v Speaker 1>enormous This is tech. You just don't realize the subtle

0:41:27.120 --> 0:41:32.160
<v Speaker 1>undercarn of online delivery. Can't imagine that's they're the logistic

0:41:32.360 --> 0:41:34.919
<v Speaker 1>arms for everybody that's not Amazon. Well, Verry, I'm curious

0:41:34.920 --> 0:41:37.200
<v Speaker 1>about you think about the FedEx story, because ultimately FedEx

0:41:37.280 --> 0:41:40.560
<v Speaker 1>is seen as a spell weather naturally except the tropical

0:41:40.640 --> 0:41:42.680
<v Speaker 1>trade eers. If volumes are going up, if people are

0:41:42.680 --> 0:41:45.320
<v Speaker 1>spending FedEx stock goes up, except it now feels like

0:41:45.400 --> 0:41:47.640
<v Speaker 1>there's a little bit of a change here because today

0:41:47.719 --> 0:41:49.920
<v Speaker 1>I'll give you the news first is that they came

0:41:49.960 --> 0:41:52.160
<v Speaker 1>out to an investor event at the New York Stock Exchange.

0:41:52.160 --> 0:41:55.440
<v Speaker 1>They're increasing their dividend by ten percent. But they're merging

0:41:55.520 --> 0:41:57.839
<v Speaker 1>two of their core businesses, their express business and their

0:41:57.920 --> 0:42:01.759
<v Speaker 1>ground business. One is there kind of internal network, one

0:42:02.000 --> 0:42:05.000
<v Speaker 1>is based purely on independent contractors basically for the consumer.

0:42:05.120 --> 0:42:08.440
<v Speaker 1>One's more expensive postage than the other. Now they're combining

0:42:08.520 --> 0:42:11.359
<v Speaker 1>them really to avoid some of the margin costs, which

0:42:11.480 --> 0:42:13.799
<v Speaker 1>was mostly coming from labor, and that's why they're trying

0:42:13.800 --> 0:42:15.640
<v Speaker 1>to kind of mesh the two. It's going to create

0:42:15.680 --> 0:42:18.520
<v Speaker 1>four billion dollars in cost efficiency. The stock is rising

0:42:18.560 --> 0:42:20.880
<v Speaker 1>off it. It's going to help their dividend appease some

0:42:21.000 --> 0:42:22.920
<v Speaker 1>of their activist investors as well. But at the core

0:42:23.000 --> 0:42:25.040
<v Speaker 1>of it, to me, it feels like a macro story

0:42:25.440 --> 0:42:28.919
<v Speaker 1>because this bell weather that is really not about weather.

0:42:29.000 --> 0:42:31.000
<v Speaker 1>Given the stock has been trading more off margins than

0:42:31.160 --> 0:42:36.920
<v Speaker 1>volume or economic activity, is now really trading off of labor. Yes,

0:42:37.040 --> 0:42:39.799
<v Speaker 1>and no, to start with, this is a thirty year

0:42:39.880 --> 0:42:42.719
<v Speaker 1>trend that's been in the making of the shift in

0:42:42.920 --> 0:42:49.479
<v Speaker 1>retail from physical stores to online or even just drop

0:42:49.560 --> 0:42:54.719
<v Speaker 1>shipping and various sorts of app or third party sellers.

0:42:55.080 --> 0:42:58.439
<v Speaker 1>You know, Instagram is a giant retailer, and FedEx gets

0:42:58.480 --> 0:43:01.640
<v Speaker 1>to benefit because all the influencers who say I love

0:43:01.719 --> 0:43:05.680
<v Speaker 1>this lipstick, Suddenly that lipstick sells out. So that's number

0:43:05.719 --> 0:43:09.000
<v Speaker 1>one and then number two. Sometimes, you know, management looks

0:43:09.000 --> 0:43:11.759
<v Speaker 1>at the logistics of what they're doing and to them

0:43:12.320 --> 0:43:14.799
<v Speaker 1>to the end client. I don't care how the hell

0:43:14.840 --> 0:43:17.200
<v Speaker 1>you ship this package. Send it by air, send it

0:43:17.280 --> 0:43:19.120
<v Speaker 1>by truck. I don't care. I just want to get

0:43:19.120 --> 0:43:21.120
<v Speaker 1>it from here to here in the least expensive way.

0:43:21.480 --> 0:43:24.719
<v Speaker 1>And whether the client is the end consumer or the

0:43:24.880 --> 0:43:27.799
<v Speaker 1>retailer themselves, hey, whatever you could do to keep our

0:43:27.880 --> 0:43:30.200
<v Speaker 1>costs down so we can move product from here to there.

0:43:30.880 --> 0:43:34.000
<v Speaker 1>If you have that as one division or two, who cares.

0:43:34.040 --> 0:43:36.719
<v Speaker 1>And in fact, I suspect you're gonna pick up my

0:43:36.800 --> 0:43:39.320
<v Speaker 1>package in a truck, take it to an airport, and

0:43:39.400 --> 0:43:42.640
<v Speaker 1>then express it to wherever it goes. Whether that's a

0:43:42.760 --> 0:43:46.600
<v Speaker 1>single division, multiple divisions, it doesn't matter to the retailer

0:43:46.760 --> 0:43:50.000
<v Speaker 1>or the consumer. All right, good stuff, and Kritty, thank

0:43:50.040 --> 0:43:51.640
<v Speaker 1>you for bringing the story to us. You've been consistent

0:43:51.719 --> 0:43:53.759
<v Speaker 1>on this for the last several weeks, and then what

0:43:53.920 --> 0:43:55.600
<v Speaker 1>we had is a good earnings. The company put out

0:43:55.640 --> 0:43:57.480
<v Speaker 1>some good earnings, and then they put out some good

0:43:57.560 --> 0:43:59.840
<v Speaker 1>cost cutting move raising a dividends. So it seems like

0:44:00.120 --> 0:44:02.960
<v Speaker 1>they're getting themselves positioned. A lot of folks are saying, hey,

0:44:02.960 --> 0:44:05.200
<v Speaker 1>maybe they're cutting costs because they sense a recession coming.

0:44:05.239 --> 0:44:07.400
<v Speaker 1>So a couple of ways to look at this. Krittigupta

0:44:07.480 --> 0:44:11.279
<v Speaker 1>covers all that good stuff. Stocks Force Markets correspondent for

0:44:11.520 --> 0:44:16.600
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg TV Radio News. She's pretty much everywhere. You're listening

0:44:16.719 --> 0:44:20.480
<v Speaker 1>to the Team Cancer Line program, Bloomberg Markets weekdays at

0:44:20.520 --> 0:44:23.439
<v Speaker 1>ten Amias Daring on Bloomberg dot com, the I Heart

0:44:23.560 --> 0:44:26.160
<v Speaker 1>Radio app, and the Bloomberg Business app. We're listening on

0:44:26.280 --> 0:44:31.200
<v Speaker 1>demand wherever you get your podcast. We did get some

0:44:31.480 --> 0:44:35.320
<v Speaker 1>economic news today. The ism services ism came in weaker

0:44:35.360 --> 0:44:39.680
<v Speaker 1>than expected, and we got the weaker manufacturing isms earlier

0:44:39.760 --> 0:44:41.839
<v Speaker 1>in the weeks. And maybe this economy, like a lot

0:44:41.880 --> 0:44:44.120
<v Speaker 1>of people have been saying for a long time, is

0:44:44.200 --> 0:44:47.560
<v Speaker 1>in fact weakening and a recession is certainly in play.

0:44:47.680 --> 0:44:50.160
<v Speaker 1>That could certainly hear those people talking about that a

0:44:50.160 --> 0:44:51.880
<v Speaker 1>little bit more. But what does that mean for the

0:44:52.000 --> 0:44:54.440
<v Speaker 1>credit markets. Our next guest has a thought or two

0:44:54.520 --> 0:44:59.040
<v Speaker 1>on that. Roberta. Goss, Senior Managing director of Pretium Partners,

0:44:59.480 --> 0:45:02.680
<v Speaker 1>joins us. Roberta. In a credit space, what are you

0:45:02.760 --> 0:45:05.879
<v Speaker 1>seeing here versus maybe a some other you know, maybe

0:45:05.920 --> 0:45:09.080
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty or even you know, during some more challenging times.

0:45:09.080 --> 0:45:10.560
<v Speaker 1>What are you see in a credit markets these days?

0:45:12.000 --> 0:45:18.080
<v Speaker 1>Good morning. So we have seen in corporate credit really

0:45:18.400 --> 0:45:24.360
<v Speaker 1>over the last three years ongoing continued volatility, which we

0:45:24.560 --> 0:45:28.880
<v Speaker 1>expect to see continue over the next couple of years.

0:45:30.160 --> 0:45:33.920
<v Speaker 1>By that, I mean, uh, you know, we are expecting

0:45:34.440 --> 0:45:39.879
<v Speaker 1>an earnings recession, not one that's consumer led, and one

0:45:40.000 --> 0:45:45.360
<v Speaker 1>that is impacting corporate earnings as a result of ongoing

0:45:45.480 --> 0:45:53.759
<v Speaker 1>supply chain stabilization and labor costs that are really hard

0:45:53.920 --> 0:45:59.920
<v Speaker 1>for management teams and companies to address. Still, as a result,

0:46:00.080 --> 0:46:06.120
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing margin pressure across across corporates. But it's really

0:46:06.160 --> 0:46:12.920
<v Speaker 1>a rolling set of opportunities and volatility that we expect

0:46:13.000 --> 0:46:17.560
<v Speaker 1>to be prolonged over the next couple of years. So

0:46:17.719 --> 0:46:20.200
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing I mean, the fault rates have been so

0:46:20.560 --> 0:46:23.320
<v Speaker 1>low even during the pandemic. There's so so much liquidity

0:46:23.360 --> 0:46:26.239
<v Speaker 1>pumped into the marketplace, But in your recession scenario, do

0:46:26.280 --> 0:46:28.200
<v Speaker 1>you think that is going to increase going forward? Are

0:46:28.200 --> 0:46:30.200
<v Speaker 1>we're going to see some real stress maybe in some

0:46:30.320 --> 0:46:35.600
<v Speaker 1>of these credits. Yes. So last year we reached sort

0:46:35.640 --> 0:46:39.239
<v Speaker 1>of very low levels, historic lows in default rates in

0:46:39.400 --> 0:46:46.480
<v Speaker 1>the zero point five percent level. Our expectation we've already

0:46:46.560 --> 0:46:50.040
<v Speaker 1>started to see default rates pick up the trailing numbers

0:46:50.120 --> 0:46:53.320
<v Speaker 1>in the low two percent range, which is still below

0:46:53.480 --> 0:46:58.720
<v Speaker 1>the historic average. But our expectation is that in twenty

0:46:58.800 --> 0:47:02.920
<v Speaker 1>twenty three default rates will will rise to three and

0:47:02.960 --> 0:47:06.440
<v Speaker 1>a half PERCENTUM, and then in twenty twenty four they

0:47:06.480 --> 0:47:09.839
<v Speaker 1>will increase increase again to the four and a half

0:47:09.920 --> 0:47:15.719
<v Speaker 1>percent level. At those rates, that puts us UM, you know,

0:47:16.160 --> 0:47:19.879
<v Speaker 1>not at certainly not at the levels we experienced during

0:47:19.920 --> 0:47:25.320
<v Speaker 1>the GFCUM, but close to the five year level that

0:47:25.440 --> 0:47:31.720
<v Speaker 1>we saw during the oil issues oil and gas issues

0:47:32.360 --> 0:47:36.960
<v Speaker 1>of twenty twenty or twenty sixteen, leading into uh, sort

0:47:37.000 --> 0:47:41.560
<v Speaker 1>of some elevated default late rates in twenty twenty as

0:47:41.600 --> 0:47:45.520
<v Speaker 1>a result of COVID. And does that put us into

0:47:45.800 --> 0:47:48.720
<v Speaker 1>a credit crunch situation, because we've heard some FED speakers

0:47:48.760 --> 0:47:53.680
<v Speaker 1>say that's a concern. Yes, we do think, um, that

0:47:53.920 --> 0:47:58.480
<v Speaker 1>will uh you know, I think a month ago we

0:47:58.600 --> 0:48:02.600
<v Speaker 1>would have said that this would have been a fairly short,

0:48:03.160 --> 0:48:07.560
<v Speaker 1>uh you know period of recession. I think the banking

0:48:07.680 --> 0:48:11.640
<v Speaker 1>volatility we've seen over the last several weeks, although that

0:48:11.840 --> 0:48:16.800
<v Speaker 1>is stabilized recently, we think will result in tighter credit

0:48:16.840 --> 0:48:21.360
<v Speaker 1>conditions over the next twelve to twenty four months. And

0:48:21.560 --> 0:48:25.600
<v Speaker 1>as a result of that, we think that our default

0:48:25.600 --> 0:48:31.000
<v Speaker 1>assumptions are are you know, base case right now? So

0:48:31.120 --> 0:48:32.960
<v Speaker 1>if I how about if I want to go out,

0:48:33.120 --> 0:48:36.319
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, I want to do a deal,

0:48:36.400 --> 0:48:38.640
<v Speaker 1>I need some acquisition capital. I got go to my

0:48:38.719 --> 0:48:41.759
<v Speaker 1>private equity partners, they pony us some equity. I go

0:48:41.880 --> 0:48:44.920
<v Speaker 1>to my big banker in New York or LA or somewhere,

0:48:44.960 --> 0:48:47.520
<v Speaker 1>and I'd look for a leverage loan. What kind of

0:48:47.640 --> 0:48:50.440
<v Speaker 1>terms am I going to have? And how's that different

0:48:50.480 --> 0:48:53.840
<v Speaker 1>from maybe a year or two ago. Yeah, So in

0:48:53.960 --> 0:48:59.560
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty one, you know, leverage loans and credit capital

0:48:59.640 --> 0:49:03.239
<v Speaker 1>was freely available. UM. I would say that over the

0:49:03.320 --> 0:49:09.920
<v Speaker 1>last six months that's certainly tightened in uh dramatically, And

0:49:10.760 --> 0:49:14.920
<v Speaker 1>the main sort of underwriting banks, the large money center banks,

0:49:15.440 --> 0:49:21.600
<v Speaker 1>UM are not as free to underwrite large LBOs and

0:49:22.440 --> 0:49:27.200
<v Speaker 1>at very attractive levels. I'd say today, UM, if you're

0:49:27.239 --> 0:49:31.520
<v Speaker 1>a PE sponsor coming with a with a new LBOUM,

0:49:31.960 --> 0:49:36.680
<v Speaker 1>leverage levels are going to be dramatically lower than they

0:49:36.719 --> 0:49:41.719
<v Speaker 1>were in twenty twenty one. Um. And uh, you know,

0:49:41.880 --> 0:49:45.319
<v Speaker 1>pricing on leverage loans right now, if you just look

0:49:45.360 --> 0:49:49.560
<v Speaker 1>at the average yield on the leverage Loan index, that's

0:49:49.600 --> 0:49:54.680
<v Speaker 1>at nine and a half percent. So the impact of

0:49:54.840 --> 0:49:58.359
<v Speaker 1>rising rates, in particular with live or now over five

0:49:58.520 --> 0:50:03.920
<v Speaker 1>percent and spreads on loans over four percent, financing four

0:50:04.080 --> 0:50:10.920
<v Speaker 1>LBOs and private equity sponsors has gotten quite expensive. I

0:50:11.080 --> 0:50:14.960
<v Speaker 1>think that also results in you a question of how

0:50:15.120 --> 0:50:19.960
<v Speaker 1>much PE sponsors are prepared to pay as a result

0:50:20.040 --> 0:50:24.279
<v Speaker 1>of multiples on new transactions. Hi, Rebert, It thanks so

0:50:24.360 --> 0:50:26.360
<v Speaker 1>much for joining us. Appreciate get an update there on

0:50:26.560 --> 0:50:30.480
<v Speaker 1>the credit market. The leverage loan market, like most other markets,

0:50:30.560 --> 0:50:34.239
<v Speaker 1>being impacted by the rapid raise increase in interest rates

0:50:34.280 --> 0:50:36.799
<v Speaker 1>from the Federal Reserve over the past twelve to fourteen months.

0:50:36.840 --> 0:50:40.680
<v Speaker 1>Rebert of Goss, Senior Managing director at Pretium Partners Here,

0:50:47.200 --> 0:50:50.279
<v Speaker 1>thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

0:50:50.320 --> 0:50:54.080
<v Speaker 1>subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever

0:50:54.200 --> 0:50:57.800
<v Speaker 1>podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

0:50:58.080 --> 0:51:01.400
<v Speaker 1>at Matt Miller in nineteen seventy three. And I'm fall Sweeney.

0:51:01.400 --> 0:51:04.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you

0:51:04.040 --> 0:51:06.439
<v Speaker 1>can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio