WEBVTT - Seeing EM Fund Outflows Accelerate, More Pain To Come: Sassower

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg pim L Podcast. I'm pim Fox.

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<v Speaker 1>Well live by emerging markets and potentially die by emerging markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Damian sass Our, fixed income strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, joins

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<v Speaker 1>us now to tell us all about how it is

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<v Speaker 1>the worst year since two thousand four for emerging market

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<v Speaker 1>box that was quick. Well, it's just a month ago

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<v Speaker 1>we were here talking about how great emerging market. That's

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<v Speaker 1>my point. And what happened in the last month at

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<v Speaker 1>the dollar, right, I mean we've and talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>dollar for so long, about dollar strength and how it's

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<v Speaker 1>just managed to be this one way street. And since

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<v Speaker 1>that's against the your right now, one thirty five against

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<v Speaker 1>the pounds sterling and one o nine against the Japanese. Yeah, him,

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<v Speaker 1>it's amazing. You know, everyone always looks at the G

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<v Speaker 1>three currency crosses, but it's China. I have to tell

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<v Speaker 1>you it's been the remnimbi that that is, that is

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<v Speaker 1>what's changed, right, I mean, for the past year, you've

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<v Speaker 1>seen the Chinese wand basically on a one way street

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<v Speaker 1>appreciating relative to the dollar. And that turned about a

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<v Speaker 1>month ago in mid April, and that's what drove everything here.

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<v Speaker 1>China dubbishness kind of crept in and people started to say,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll wait a second now, Um, maybe the PBSC is

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<v Speaker 1>gonna let the currency depreciate, and what does that mean

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<v Speaker 1>for the you know, what does that mean for the dollar?

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<v Speaker 1>And of course people woke up to the reality that well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's good for the dollar and that's bad for

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<v Speaker 1>you am. So just to sort of walk through the

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<v Speaker 1>logic here, typically when the dollar strengthens, that means all

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<v Speaker 1>of these developing nations that have borrowed a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>hard currency assets what a harder time paying back their debt.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that the main reason here, Well, that's one element

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<v Speaker 1>of it, right, I mean, you're obviously talking about all

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<v Speaker 1>of the emerging market UH borrowers who have issued dollar debt,

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<v Speaker 1>but their local government debt, you know, their local currency

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<v Speaker 1>debt is what the real killer here is because the

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<v Speaker 1>currency it's dominated in is no longer worth what it's

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<v Speaker 1>written on. So that is part of the issue. Now

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<v Speaker 1>here is the question, have we reached a point where

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<v Speaker 1>the sell off has escalated to such a degree that

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<v Speaker 1>people are coming in and buying buying opportunities. I'll tell

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<v Speaker 1>you what I mean by that. But the buying opportunities

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<v Speaker 1>that we've seen in EM debt have only been an

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<v Speaker 1>i M dollar debt, and they've only been idiosyncratic opportunities

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<v Speaker 1>in names like Tava, which had sold off significantly or

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<v Speaker 1>at a brash But certainly we have not seen new

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<v Speaker 1>money coming in and saying these are attractive levels we're

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<v Speaker 1>getting paid. You know, we're getting attractive yields, attractive carried

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<v Speaker 1>and i M dollar debt to go in at this stage,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not seeing that yet in factor seeing fund flows

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<v Speaker 1>accelerate of fund outflows accelerate right now. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>we still have a little bit of pain left left

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<v Speaker 1>ahead of us. But fundamentally e M is still you know,

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<v Speaker 1>in a relatively good place relative to where it's been

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<v Speaker 1>just in during the less paper uh and and another

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<v Speaker 1>you know kind of a venture of a you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of event risk elevated event risk environments, and so

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think this is a correction that's long overdue. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we gotta wait and see it play through.

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<v Speaker 1>I think, though, UM, the real interesting dynamic within emerging

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<v Speaker 1>market debt right now is local currency yields are actually

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<v Speaker 1>below and on a duration adjusted to basis, are about

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<v Speaker 1>to sink below em dollar yields for the first time

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<v Speaker 1>since the global financial crisis. So you are not getting

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<v Speaker 1>paid to go local in e M. And oh hey,

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, currency volatility is way more volatile than

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<v Speaker 1>than than e M dollar spreads, and that's a real

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<v Speaker 1>risk Argentina. Go ahead, that's not the punch line. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the question Argentina, so so blended yields uh in Argentina

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<v Speaker 1>right now dollar yields. So the risk here is do

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<v Speaker 1>we go out and try to, you know, take a

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<v Speaker 1>punt on getting a twenty pay out around UM in

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<v Speaker 1>Argentina dollar bonds with the currency risk and the currency

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<v Speaker 1>volatility that has just been absolutely off the charts. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's down in the last three weeks since

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<v Speaker 1>we spoke last you know, I'm struck by and and

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<v Speaker 1>PIM you mentioned Argentina and This is a perfect segue.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not just Argentina. You have Turkey, you have the

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<v Speaker 1>Philippines raising rates in order to support their currency. You

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<v Speaker 1>have others as well. So yes, on a whole, perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>emerging markets are in a better position, which you have

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<v Speaker 1>these trouble spots that are very troubled spots with increasing trouble.

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<v Speaker 1>And I wonder, especially given the fact, as we've talked

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<v Speaker 1>many times before, how much money went in through indexed

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<v Speaker 1>strategies trying to get ahold of the entire complex of

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<v Speaker 1>emerging markets, how much just a couple of bad names

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<v Speaker 1>contained the reputation and cause a flood of withdrawals. Absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean this all begin with Russian and in many

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<v Speaker 1>respects this is really like as soon as Russia and

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<v Speaker 1>the sanctions on Russia, Russol and all that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>started to hit and people started to reevaluate. What We'll

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<v Speaker 1>wait a second here, the rubles now off ten percent?

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<v Speaker 1>What other countries are vulnerable? You know, what does this

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<v Speaker 1>mean for Turkey? What does this mean they actually have oil? Well, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you're right right, I mean a lot of countries don't

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<v Speaker 1>have that commodity base. You know, it's it's but what

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<v Speaker 1>we're so far off and by the time they actually

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<v Speaker 1>drive for some of that deep sea oil or gas

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<v Speaker 1>whatever is under the base. And I mean we might

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<v Speaker 1>be an electric powered economy. So we really can't you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we can't obviously model that in I think I think

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<v Speaker 1>for me and for what what we're looking at is,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Argentina is a funny one, Pim. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's just come back online, it's a serial

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<v Speaker 1>default or it's got its own set of risks. But Turkey,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're getting to a point here, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>where you have to you just have to take a

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<v Speaker 1>look at it. I mean, some of the yields I

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<v Speaker 1>mean are just you just have to take a look

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<v Speaker 1>at it, you know. And certainly Turkish financials, which I get.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there's a lot of there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>negative narrative around guarantee and bank and and and all

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<v Speaker 1>that's going on in that sector. But I mean, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>some of those banks are bell Weather, some of them

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<v Speaker 1>are are you know, fundamentally healthy right now and um

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<v Speaker 1>and so you have to begin to look at those

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<v Speaker 1>at those opportunities. I can say, Tim, is it right here, Damien.

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<v Speaker 1>He has a very strong stomach to be recommended, saying

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<v Speaker 1>fields are very high, they are high fial. Look, you

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<v Speaker 1>know there's this. We have an election coming up in Mexico. Yeah. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>and uh. The Mexican economy, at least the government part

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<v Speaker 1>of the economy, depends a lot on oil revenue. The

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<v Speaker 1>leader in the polls is basically saying we don't want

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<v Speaker 1>foreign investment in the oil economy. Yeah. Yeah, Now, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean that is a risk, right, I mean, um am

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<v Speaker 1>Loo is definitely leading in the polls, and for all

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<v Speaker 1>intents and purposes, he is probably gonna be there. But

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<v Speaker 1>I do I I'm not going to recommend it. But

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<v Speaker 1>one area that does look rather attractive. And I'll tell

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<v Speaker 1>you why. Our Mexican high grade debt short duration. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's like an America Movil or a Televisa. And the

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<v Speaker 1>reason I say that is Mexico tends to track, especially

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<v Speaker 1>in Mexican dollar debt tends to track US debt, right,

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<v Speaker 1>US high grade debt and US high grade debt. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>with the front end of the curve kind of ratcheting

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<v Speaker 1>up here, I mean, you've got some attractive yields now

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<v Speaker 1>and names that were you know, I mean, you just couldn't.

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<v Speaker 1>You couldn't invest in it before because you just weren't

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<v Speaker 1>getting paid to own American mobile bonds, and now you

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<v Speaker 1>are and short duration American mobile bonds. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>in some pockets of the market, Brazilian financials, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>Brazilian has one of the steepest yield curves out there.

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<v Speaker 1>So you think, you know, steep yiel curve is good

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<v Speaker 1>for for the financial sector. And it's also short duration debt, right,

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<v Speaker 1>because I mean, that's that's the buzz, right, you want

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<v Speaker 1>to go short duration, and so that's another area you

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<v Speaker 1>may want to take a look at as well. It's

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<v Speaker 1>how Bradesco some some banks there that might might look

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<v Speaker 1>pretty interesting at these levels. Amazing, really really interesting. Damian Sassare,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for being with us. Damian sassaur

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<v Speaker 1>It talked about how a month ago it all looked different,

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<v Speaker 1>but not to him back to back in a month

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<v Speaker 1>and it will be completely different. You get to his chair.

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<v Speaker 1>Fixing Cup strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joining us here at

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg World count Quarters thirty Lexington. We are broadcasting

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<v Speaker 1>live from Bloomberg's Business of Equality Summit, bringing together business

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<v Speaker 1>leaders and thinkers to talk about how to make the

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<v Speaker 1>workplace a better, more equal, and comfortable place for everybody.

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<v Speaker 1>We are broadcasting from Bloomberg Business of Equality Summit in

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<v Speaker 1>New York City are corporate headquarters. We bring together business,

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<v Speaker 1>academic and political leaders, as well as the leaders of

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<v Speaker 1>nonprofits to talk about changes in the world of business

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<v Speaker 1>and equality and diversity. Joining us now is Elizabeth A.

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<v Speaker 1>Yama Yaro, a senior advisor to the Under Secretary General

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<v Speaker 1>and Executive Director of the United Nations for You and Women.

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<v Speaker 1>She's also the global head of the u n S

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<v Speaker 1>He for She Movement and you can follow her on

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter at e Underscore Yama Yarrow. But there is an

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<v Speaker 1>end before that. Um Elizabeth, thank you very much for

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<v Speaker 1>being with us. Tell us what is the Heat for

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<v Speaker 1>She movement? It is the global solidarity movement for gender

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<v Speaker 1>equality that was set up three years ago to engage

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<v Speaker 1>men and boys as part of the solution. So we

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<v Speaker 1>are waking at grassroot level, but also working with global companies,

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<v Speaker 1>global CEOs, heads or states academia to create tangible solutions

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<v Speaker 1>for gender equality. So how much does war impede these uh,

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<v Speaker 1>these issues that you're focusing on, Because if I think

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<v Speaker 1>about gender equality, I think about equal pay, but then

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<v Speaker 1>I also think about the reports that we hear out

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<v Speaker 1>of Syria or other places where there is war and

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<v Speaker 1>women are getting raped and killed, or India for example.

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<v Speaker 1>So talked a little bit about that this is actually

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<v Speaker 1>one of the crisis of our time, the issue of

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<v Speaker 1>gender inequality, because when you look at every single level

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<v Speaker 1>of society is socially, economically, politically, women are not doing well. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>there's lack of representation, but there's also abuse. Um the

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<v Speaker 1>issue of violence that you mentioned. Globally, one in three

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<v Speaker 1>women will be subject to violence in their lifetime. That's

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<v Speaker 1>one billion women working around wounded. So the issues of

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<v Speaker 1>gender equality really we're in a crisis moment and we've

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<v Speaker 1>got to figure out a where that we can you know,

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<v Speaker 1>support women and girls and and really create tree equality

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<v Speaker 1>in these societies. Can you just offer an example of

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<v Speaker 1>one of the experiences for the He for She movements

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<v Speaker 1>something that has actually taken place. The biggest achievement that

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<v Speaker 1>we've done is to create this initiative called the Impact Initiative,

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<v Speaker 1>where we engage ten heads of states from the Prime

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister of Japan, Prime Minister of Canada, to Wander Malawi,

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<v Speaker 1>um to the Scandinavian countries and also global CEOs, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it be the chairman of PwC. We was just with

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<v Speaker 1>on a panel today at the Bloomberg Summit um too,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, UNI Live, et cetera. But the biggest thing

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<v Speaker 1>that these champions are doing is they have identified critical

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<v Speaker 1>policy areas that they are going to literally achieve parity

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<v Speaker 1>on by twenty So if you look at p w say,

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<v Speaker 1>we're here today talking about how the company have been

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<v Speaker 1>able to move the data point in their global leadership

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<v Speaker 1>team from eighteen percent in twenty fifteen when they joined

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<v Speaker 1>the here Foreshen movement to for within fifteen months. So

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<v Speaker 1>who has been the least receptive of the world leaders

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<v Speaker 1>who you've spoken to? We again, here for shas an

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<v Speaker 1>open invitation to those that want to be on the

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<v Speaker 1>rest side of history. And so what we've done was

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<v Speaker 1>to really issue core to action and we ended up

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<v Speaker 1>with those leaders that actually want to be part of

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<v Speaker 1>the change. So who is notably absent? I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>I can single out anyone. It is a pilot initiative.

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<v Speaker 1>So we started with ten countries in terms of governments,

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<v Speaker 1>and the ten companies the countries that came to us.

0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:03.400
<v Speaker 1>I've really defined some concrete change. Malawi is on. You know,

0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:05.520
<v Speaker 1>they have now outlawed child marriage as part of the

0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:09.160
<v Speaker 1>Heathshire Commitment. In a spece of twelve months, the chiefs,

0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.880
<v Speaker 1>the male chiefs in Malawi worked with the female chiefs

0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:14.040
<v Speaker 1>and went around and are now more than three thousand,

0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:16.480
<v Speaker 1>five hundred child marriages and these girls are now back

0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:18.800
<v Speaker 1>in school. So we are seeing that those those who

0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 1>want to build the rest sort of history are doing

0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.959
<v Speaker 1>something very concrete and very inspiring. Can you talk a

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 1>little bit about your own background and how you came

0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.760
<v Speaker 1>to be part of this UN initiative. I grew up

0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.720
<v Speaker 1>in a tiny village in Zimbabwe and when I was

0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:35.559
<v Speaker 1>eight years old, the United Nations came into my village.

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.400
<v Speaker 1>We're going through one of our West drought and I

0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:40.560
<v Speaker 1>was starving. I had not eaten for several days and

0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:43.680
<v Speaker 1>literally the UN saved my life. A young woman who

0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:47.160
<v Speaker 1>happened to be Zimbabwe but worked for UNI SEV found

0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:49.320
<v Speaker 1>me underneath the street, give me a ball of hom

0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.680
<v Speaker 1>porridge and literally, you know, I survived. And I knew

0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:54.480
<v Speaker 1>from that early young age that I wanted to work

0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:56.480
<v Speaker 1>for the U n and so I pursued that vision

0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:58.600
<v Speaker 1>and have now been with the UN for fifteen years,

0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:03.280
<v Speaker 1>working for different entities from UNA's in Geneva who I've

0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:05.320
<v Speaker 1>also worked at the World Bank, and now I'm with

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:07.760
<v Speaker 1>You and Women as the senior advisor to the under

0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:11.080
<v Speaker 1>Sector General. So how young were you when you loved Zimbabwe?

0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:15.280
<v Speaker 1>So I left Simbabwe in my early twenties, moved to

0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:18.160
<v Speaker 1>the United Nations with two fifty pounds to my name,

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.800
<v Speaker 1>with not friends or family. I had my dream though,

0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:24.120
<v Speaker 1>to become this young girl who worked for the United Nations,

0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:27.280
<v Speaker 1>wore a blue uniform, and I ended up, you know,

0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:30.720
<v Speaker 1>studying political science and the London School of Economics. And

0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:32.839
<v Speaker 1>and here we are well, thank you so much for

0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.679
<v Speaker 1>joining us. So really fascinating to speak with you, and

0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:38.319
<v Speaker 1>we will she the best of luck in the initiative.

0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:42.479
<v Speaker 1>Elizabeth Yummy Yarrow is Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary

0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:45.400
<v Speaker 1>General and executive director of You and Women. She is

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 1>also the global head for You and He for SHE movement.

0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:53.040
<v Speaker 1>She is joining us here from the Bloomberg Business of

0:13:53.080 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 1>Equality Summit in our seven thirty Lexington Avenue headquarters here

0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.720
<v Speaker 1>in New York. Really interesting, and it's definitely interesting to

0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 1>hear about all of the different challenges and sort of

0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:08.960
<v Speaker 1>uniting thread between them all through different nations and different challenges.

0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 1>They're sort of a disconnect in Silicon Valley where you

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:30.680
<v Speaker 1>think of a sort of socially progressive and liberal attitude,

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 1>while the pay gap between the genders has widened and

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.520
<v Speaker 1>there's talk of the Broo topia. The Emily Chang of

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Television wrote about here to talk about how to

0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:43.280
<v Speaker 1>make the tech world perhaps a little bit more equal

0:14:43.640 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 1>is a Neil dash He is chief executive of fog

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Creek Software in New York. He also was an advisor

0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.600
<v Speaker 1>to the Obama White House's Office of Digital Strategy. We're

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>so glad that you could join us. Thank you for

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.400
<v Speaker 1>being here. So what is sort of at the root

0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 1>of this inequality that persists between the genders even in

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:03.680
<v Speaker 1>Silicon Value. You know, there's there's a lot of good intention,

0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:06.880
<v Speaker 1>as you said, and then there is the self reflection

0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:09.560
<v Speaker 1>and the challenge of changing yourself and saying what am

0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:11.920
<v Speaker 1>I doing wrong? Is it just thinking the right things

0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:15.960
<v Speaker 1>enough to get it done? And then there is I

0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 1>think the slightly more legitimate excuses we're moving a breakneck speed.

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 1>Everything is changing really rapidly. I'll get to fixing all

0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:25.600
<v Speaker 1>this social stuff once everything is settled down. Of course,

0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:27.960
<v Speaker 1>there is no settling down at tech, and so they

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:29.720
<v Speaker 1>sort of, you know, kick the can down the road

0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot, and that's that's the most charitable interpretation. And

0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>then we have people that that say they care and

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:36.440
<v Speaker 1>just don't you know, which is one of those things

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:38.240
<v Speaker 1>that we have to reckon with as an industry. I

0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 1>think all those things combining together to close off a

0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:43.400
<v Speaker 1>lot of opportunity, um, you know, for the for the

0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:45.600
<v Speaker 1>companies that aren't involving in that way. In our case,

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 1>we're small independent company. Um we we we build a

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.160
<v Speaker 1>cycle called Flitch, which is like a YouTube for coders.

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:54.680
<v Speaker 1>So we're competing for talent with Facebook, with Google. Um

0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:56.480
<v Speaker 1>by us being able to plan a flag and say

0:15:56.480 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 1>we're really going to stand on you know, meaningful measures

0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:03.680
<v Speaker 1>that push for equity and push for inclusion, that's been

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.200
<v Speaker 1>a competitive advantage for us, Even things like simply doing

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.880
<v Speaker 1>salary transparency where people know what their salary is going

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:10.400
<v Speaker 1>to be when we hire them. That opens the door

0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:13.480
<v Speaker 1>to us attracting talent that others can and Neil, could

0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>you just describe a little bit of your background in

0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:18.960
<v Speaker 1>the world of blogging, so pea understand how you came

0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.640
<v Speaker 1>to be, I believe one of the few people that

0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:27.880
<v Speaker 1>could count prints as well as Bill Gates among their

0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 1>at least their previous followers. Yeah. Yeah, it's a it's

0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:32.440
<v Speaker 1>a very um you know, social media used to be

0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.000
<v Speaker 1>a small world, right, So I started blogging twenty years ago,

0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:38.200
<v Speaker 1>and you had to be fairly interested in both technology

0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.280
<v Speaker 1>and media at that point to do both. And so, um,

0:16:41.360 --> 0:16:43.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, I've been making software. You know, we had

0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:45.400
<v Speaker 1>the back then it was you know, Windows ninety eight

0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:47.920
<v Speaker 1>or whatever it was. Yeah, this sort of um, conventional

0:16:47.920 --> 0:16:51.400
<v Speaker 1>software industry. But the age six apart was was you Yeah, yeah,

0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:53.200
<v Speaker 1>I was the first employee there, and we made tools

0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:55.520
<v Speaker 1>like movable type, which was one of the early blogging tools,

0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:58.000
<v Speaker 1>and um, and people took that and used that to

0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:00.280
<v Speaker 1>make huffing and post or to make gawk, or to

0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:02.600
<v Speaker 1>make all these sort of you know, really prominent early

0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.359
<v Speaker 1>media sites. And like I said, you were combining technology

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:07.840
<v Speaker 1>and media. And you know, in Bloomberg that might be

0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.359
<v Speaker 1>pretty obvious that a lot of other places it wasn't.

0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.359
<v Speaker 1>And um, and so that was one of those moments

0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:17.040
<v Speaker 1>where we realized what in retrospect became social media would

0:17:17.080 --> 0:17:19.840
<v Speaker 1>be the thing that defined technology to people even more

0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 1>than uh, you know, using a spreadsheet program or something

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:24.639
<v Speaker 1>like that. And so out of that that sort of

0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:26.679
<v Speaker 1>community of people that were paying attention that came a

0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of the early social network and social media platforms,

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.000
<v Speaker 1>as well as a lot of the sort of big

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 1>innovators and adventures that I think have gone on to

0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:37.159
<v Speaker 1>become household names. Does does it ever cause you some

0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:42.359
<v Speaker 1>kind of irony that the social media explosion has come

0:17:42.359 --> 0:17:47.679
<v Speaker 1>back to create I don't want to say a social media,

0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:51.160
<v Speaker 1>but certainly social media where you don't know who's behind

0:17:51.640 --> 0:17:54.320
<v Speaker 1>the information, you don't know what their agenda is, and

0:17:54.359 --> 0:17:56.680
<v Speaker 1>there's very little way in which you can track it

0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.080
<v Speaker 1>and hold people accountable. Yeah, there were, you know, there

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:03.200
<v Speaker 1>were a lot of maybe faulty assumptions is one way

0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:05.440
<v Speaker 1>to put it, or even just sort of shortsighted assumptions

0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.080
<v Speaker 1>about how the systems were designed, you know, the the

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:10.959
<v Speaker 1>idea when you're building tools. In two thousand or two

0:18:10.960 --> 0:18:13.359
<v Speaker 1>thousand five or two thousand and six on Twitter launched

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 1>that maybe a billion people would show up and use

0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.240
<v Speaker 1>your tool would be absurd. So so this idea that

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:20.040
<v Speaker 1>they were going to design to anticipate that was a

0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:22.800
<v Speaker 1>little unexpected. I think what became of that was assuming

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:24.560
<v Speaker 1>everybody who's gonna be part of the same community is

0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:27.520
<v Speaker 1>part of the same clique. Didn't anticipate the values everybody had,

0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:31.639
<v Speaker 1>didn't anticipate building accountability for everyone. So given that, and

0:18:31.680 --> 0:18:35.199
<v Speaker 1>given where the social media world has come from, do

0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:39.560
<v Speaker 1>you think that Facebook and uh it's rivals have adequately

0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:42.399
<v Speaker 1>addressed some of these security concerns as well as some

0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:45.679
<v Speaker 1>of the social concerns. Uh No, you know, there's so

0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:47.879
<v Speaker 1>much more to do. And and this actually goes to

0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:50.560
<v Speaker 1>the earlier point about inclusion in the industry. If if

0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:52.919
<v Speaker 1>more of the people in power at Facebook and these

0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:55.760
<v Speaker 1>other companies where the people that get targeted and harassed

0:18:55.760 --> 0:18:59.600
<v Speaker 1>online or to get marginalized by these technologies, I think

0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:02.760
<v Speaker 1>you would see very different designs and very different prioritizations

0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:04.919
<v Speaker 1>other products. I think they're starting to reckon with it.

0:19:04.920 --> 0:19:06.159
<v Speaker 1>I mean, there are a ton of good people at

0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:07.960
<v Speaker 1>these companies and they want to do the right thing.

0:19:08.400 --> 0:19:10.560
<v Speaker 1>But it's a lot easier to prevent than it is

0:19:10.600 --> 0:19:13.320
<v Speaker 1>to try and cure after the harms have already been caused.

0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:15.280
<v Speaker 1>That's what I was going to ask, is it's one

0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:18.040
<v Speaker 1>thing to go and consciously try to be diverse, But

0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:20.800
<v Speaker 1>isn't there some kind of business advantage have you found

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.800
<v Speaker 1>to hiring people with different points of view? Yeah? Yeah,

0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:26.879
<v Speaker 1>I mean you you end up with them anticipating uh,

0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:29.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, flaws or weaknesses. And I look at this

0:19:29.119 --> 0:19:31.800
<v Speaker 1>as sort of um, you know, and and the conventional

0:19:31.840 --> 0:19:33.919
<v Speaker 1>tech industry that things that everybody pays attention to our

0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:38.199
<v Speaker 1>security scalability issues like that, and you always anticipate it.

0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:39.760
<v Speaker 1>You sort of say, this is the next area where

0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.040
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna have to anticipate an area of vulnerability. I

0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:45.280
<v Speaker 1>look at the same thing with culture. Culture debt is

0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:48.000
<v Speaker 1>just like technical debt. It's something that you um one

0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:50.480
<v Speaker 1>way or another. You're gonna pay right one way or another.

0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:53.480
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna have to address these things that you were

0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.960
<v Speaker 1>shortsighted on or that you underinvested in. Why not be preventative.

0:19:57.240 --> 0:19:59.520
<v Speaker 1>I look at it as you know, it's the right

0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 1>thing to do morally and ethically, that's where it starts.

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.280
<v Speaker 1>But it's also a great way to manage risk as

0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:07.920
<v Speaker 1>a company that's, you know, really operating extremely competitive environment.

0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:10.240
<v Speaker 1>Let's reduce our risk and increase the odds that we're

0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna be able to compete against these giant players. I

0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:14.240
<v Speaker 1>want to thank you very much for joining us. You're

0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:16.480
<v Speaker 1>gonna be blogging about this right absolutely and tweeting about

0:20:16.520 --> 0:20:18.919
<v Speaker 1>it too. Well done. Thanks very much. That she is

0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:22.480
<v Speaker 1>the chief executive of fog Creek, a software one of

0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:25.439
<v Speaker 1>the many attendees here at the Business of Equality Summit

0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:29.840
<v Speaker 1>at our New York City corporate headquarters and brings together

0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:33.040
<v Speaker 1>a variety of business, academic and nonprofit leaders to talk

0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:51.119
<v Speaker 1>about equality and diversity in the workplace. A sixty two

0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>billion dollar bet on orphan drugs to treat diseases such

0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:59.879
<v Speaker 1>as Hunter's syndrome. That's the case of Takeda Pharmaceuticals and

0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:04.000
<v Speaker 1>it's sixty two billion dollar deal to acquire Shire. Here

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.359
<v Speaker 1>to tell us more is Max Neeson, biotech, parma and

0:21:07.440 --> 0:21:11.520
<v Speaker 1>healthcare columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. You can follow Max on

0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:15.840
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Max Neeson nets and I S. E. N. Max.

0:21:16.240 --> 0:21:22.080
<v Speaker 1>Why is Takeda spending sixty two billion dollars on Shire? Well,

0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:25.240
<v Speaker 1>I think they're really desperate for for some combination of

0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:29.840
<v Speaker 1>geographic and and drug diversification. Uh, they're pretty heavily dependent

0:21:29.920 --> 0:21:33.639
<v Speaker 1>on on some older treatments themselves, nothing much in the pipeline,

0:21:33.960 --> 0:21:36.880
<v Speaker 1>and also on the Japanese market, which is particularly tough

0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:40.119
<v Speaker 1>for drug makers given that they have some pretty aggressive

0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:43.560
<v Speaker 1>price controls at times. So they were just looking for

0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:46.520
<v Speaker 1>a way to supplement their pipeline, get into the United

0:21:46.560 --> 0:21:49.960
<v Speaker 1>States to a greater degree, and also um get into

0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:52.400
<v Speaker 1>the rare disease drug market, as you mentioned. So let's

0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:56.320
<v Speaker 1>talk price. This sixty two billion dollar price tag includes

0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:59.679
<v Speaker 1>a thirty one billion dollar bridge loan that makes it

0:21:59.800 --> 0:22:04.640
<v Speaker 1>the largest such borrowing ever by a Japanese company for

0:22:04.680 --> 0:22:06.919
<v Speaker 1>an acquisition. What do you think do you think that

0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:10.240
<v Speaker 1>this is fairly value in Shire? Um? You know, considering

0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:12.280
<v Speaker 1>that that it traded close to the levels that it's

0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.360
<v Speaker 1>being bought at last year, it doesn't seem like an

0:22:15.520 --> 0:22:18.960
<v Speaker 1>enormously expensive deal on that kind of metric. But in

0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:20.880
<v Speaker 1>terms of the amount of death that's being raised here,

0:22:21.320 --> 0:22:24.639
<v Speaker 1>the damage that's being done to Takada's balance sheet, H,

0:22:24.720 --> 0:22:26.159
<v Speaker 1>then you have a little bit more in the way

0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 1>of questions. Just because there there are some risks here.

0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:31.360
<v Speaker 1>Shire is pretty heavily depending on the team affiliate business,

0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:34.080
<v Speaker 1>which is facing some competition now and will in the

0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:38.720
<v Speaker 1>future from potentially curative gene therapies. And also just in

0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:42.080
<v Speaker 1>terms of integration risk and the level of synergies that

0:22:42.119 --> 0:22:46.439
<v Speaker 1>Takeda is targeting both more than the usual. So definitely

0:22:46.440 --> 0:22:48.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot of risk given the amount of death that's

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:50.600
<v Speaker 1>coming into play here, because Shi already had on the

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:53.320
<v Speaker 1>role of eighteen point five billion in debt on its books,

0:22:53.440 --> 0:22:55.600
<v Speaker 1>So this is gonna be one of the more leverage

0:22:55.600 --> 0:22:59.240
<v Speaker 1>pharmacy cool companies in the world if this deal is completed, Max.

0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:03.920
<v Speaker 1>Just to go to this issue of orphan drugs, rare diseases,

0:23:04.000 --> 0:23:07.240
<v Speaker 1>the one I was just gonna use as an example

0:23:07.800 --> 0:23:11.560
<v Speaker 1>is La Praise and Ella Praises, the drug that Shire

0:23:11.640 --> 0:23:15.960
<v Speaker 1>has to treat Hunter's syndrome. The cost of the drug

0:23:16.040 --> 0:23:18.040
<v Speaker 1>for a full regiment, and I believe it is like

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:22.560
<v Speaker 1>three hundred and sixty five thousand dollars and the sales

0:23:22.640 --> 0:23:25.560
<v Speaker 1>of La Praise were more than three hundred and fifty

0:23:25.880 --> 0:23:29.159
<v Speaker 1>million dollars a year. That's just for one drug. Is

0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:31.760
<v Speaker 1>that the kind of number that and the and the

0:23:31.840 --> 0:23:35.040
<v Speaker 1>situation that drug companies are really looking for yeah, so

0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:37.320
<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of benefits to that sort of

0:23:37.760 --> 0:23:40.119
<v Speaker 1>severe disease drugs of that type. You don't have to

0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 1>spend a lot on marketing. You do have to go

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:44.760
<v Speaker 1>out and find the patients and make sure they're getting

0:23:44.760 --> 0:23:48.439
<v Speaker 1>on drugs. But you know, it's enormously profitable in a

0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:51.919
<v Speaker 1>way that's different from you know, say, a really competitive

0:23:51.960 --> 0:23:54.600
<v Speaker 1>area like diabetes, where you have to fight against a

0:23:54.600 --> 0:23:57.760
<v Speaker 1>bunch of similar drugs for every single patient, pay huge

0:23:57.800 --> 0:24:01.520
<v Speaker 1>rebate rebates to insures in pharmacy enefit managers. So I

0:24:01.560 --> 0:24:03.479
<v Speaker 1>think that's one of the things that that makes us

0:24:03.480 --> 0:24:07.960
<v Speaker 1>attractive as well. What's the risk of failing to integrate

0:24:08.000 --> 0:24:10.480
<v Speaker 1>the two companies? Well, I mean, when you're talking about

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:13.119
<v Speaker 1>the debt level and leverage, there's a little voice in

0:24:13.160 --> 0:24:16.320
<v Speaker 1>the back of my head that just keeps saying Valiant, Valiant, Valiant.

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:21.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, is this going to be the same? All right? Thanks,

0:24:21.240 --> 0:24:24.080
<v Speaker 1>thanks for the name. Oh yeah, well there you go.

0:24:24.359 --> 0:24:27.040
<v Speaker 1>That makes much Well, of course they don't want the

0:24:27.119 --> 0:24:29.119
<v Speaker 1>name in the back of the head saying Valiant, But

0:24:29.200 --> 0:24:31.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, is there a risk that this could end

0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:34.399
<v Speaker 1>up being something like that, a highly levered deal that

0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:38.280
<v Speaker 1>goes bad? I definitely think there is, because you know,

0:24:38.320 --> 0:24:40.840
<v Speaker 1>you have the biggest ever take over from from a

0:24:40.920 --> 0:24:44.119
<v Speaker 1>Japanese country company of a drug company. UM that that

0:24:44.240 --> 0:24:47.600
<v Speaker 1>offers some some potential integration headaches and um as I

0:24:47.640 --> 0:24:52.119
<v Speaker 1>mentioned those risks of the hemophilia franchise, some other generic competition.

0:24:52.520 --> 0:24:56.400
<v Speaker 1>If if Shire delivers, especially if it's pipeline delivers less

0:24:56.400 --> 0:24:59.840
<v Speaker 1>than expected or hemophilia competition is great and expected, you

0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:03.040
<v Speaker 1>could see a sales slowdown that that makes that debtload

0:25:03.560 --> 0:25:05.960
<v Speaker 1>even scarier. Well, well, it's probably not going to be

0:25:06.040 --> 0:25:08.600
<v Speaker 1>anything on the scale of Valiant, where you know the

0:25:08.640 --> 0:25:12.320
<v Speaker 1>business kind of just collapsed. Uh still still makes their

0:25:12.320 --> 0:25:14.800
<v Speaker 1>debt paid down targets which are going to have to

0:25:14.800 --> 0:25:19.000
<v Speaker 1>be aggressive Uh look pretty risky. Does it matter at

0:25:19.040 --> 0:25:21.399
<v Speaker 1>all that this is a Japanese and a British company

0:25:21.400 --> 0:25:25.680
<v Speaker 1>coming together in an age of trade wars and trade concerns.

0:25:26.240 --> 0:25:28.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know that that is a potential risk

0:25:29.000 --> 0:25:32.439
<v Speaker 1>as well considered because things are so volatile, and especially

0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:36.480
<v Speaker 1>United States, I think the Trump administration has been making

0:25:36.520 --> 0:25:40.160
<v Speaker 1>some noise about other countries paying it's paying their fair

0:25:40.160 --> 0:25:42.679
<v Speaker 1>share for medicines. You know, we subsidize a lot of

0:25:42.760 --> 0:25:46.160
<v Speaker 1>r and d costs UH through paying an outside share

0:25:46.200 --> 0:25:48.960
<v Speaker 1>of of you know, paying higher drug prices, paying more

0:25:49.000 --> 0:25:51.639
<v Speaker 1>for medicines. UM. So if that changes that, that's another

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:55.560
<v Speaker 1>potential risk of such a big international UH transaction. Who

0:25:55.640 --> 0:25:59.480
<v Speaker 1>might be next? Because he tried to buy Shire a

0:25:59.520 --> 0:26:02.359
<v Speaker 1>couple of years ago. Um. Also there was talk that

0:26:02.440 --> 0:26:05.440
<v Speaker 1>Allergan was interested in Shire at one point. Who's next?

0:26:05.480 --> 0:26:08.240
<v Speaker 1>You believed? Um, You know, I don't think there's a

0:26:08.280 --> 0:26:13.200
<v Speaker 1>particularly acute risk of another company jumping into to kind

0:26:13.200 --> 0:26:16.520
<v Speaker 1>of mess up to Kata's offer, just given the risk

0:26:16.600 --> 0:26:19.200
<v Speaker 1>profile and the cost of the deal. You know, fiser

0:26:19.280 --> 0:26:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Is always mentioned is the most likely to go for

0:26:21.320 --> 0:26:24.040
<v Speaker 1>a mega deal, but they were pretty explicit that they

0:26:24.040 --> 0:26:27.080
<v Speaker 1>weren't interested on their most recent earnings call. Um, but

0:26:27.400 --> 0:26:30.240
<v Speaker 1>I think fiser Is is due for a deal of

0:26:30.359 --> 0:26:33.560
<v Speaker 1>decent size, even if it's not Shire, UM Murk as well.

0:26:33.720 --> 0:26:36.200
<v Speaker 1>The question is whether they're going to go for something

0:26:36.240 --> 0:26:39.560
<v Speaker 1>of of the big consolidating type or or to try

0:26:39.600 --> 0:26:42.000
<v Speaker 1>to poster their pipelines. You know, just to put us

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:44.359
<v Speaker 1>in a perspective, to Kata and Shire together would have

0:26:44.720 --> 0:26:47.360
<v Speaker 1>more than thirty one billion dollars of revenue UH. That

0:26:47.480 --> 0:26:50.320
<v Speaker 1>doesn't put it in the top five in terms of revenue.

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:53.600
<v Speaker 1>It's behind Johnson and Johnson, roche Viser, no Artists, and

0:26:53.640 --> 0:26:57.480
<v Speaker 1>no Fee Murk Bear lax of Kline. Uh So, definitely

0:26:57.560 --> 0:27:00.680
<v Speaker 1>an interesting tie up that pushes it into the top ranks,

0:27:00.920 --> 0:27:03.159
<v Speaker 1>but they are both of much smaller size and some

0:27:03.200 --> 0:27:06.119
<v Speaker 1>of them on the top five of total debt and

0:27:06.240 --> 0:27:09.439
<v Speaker 1>leverage ratio. Though. Well, they can have that that crown

0:27:09.560 --> 0:27:11.879
<v Speaker 1>and we're proudly perhaps for for the time being anyway,

0:27:11.920 --> 0:27:13.720
<v Speaker 1>Max Neeason, thank you so much for being with us.

0:27:13.760 --> 0:27:16.440
<v Speaker 1>Max Neeason is our biotech, farm and healthcare columnist for

0:27:16.440 --> 0:27:19.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Opinion, joining us here in our leven three oh

0:27:19.840 --> 0:27:24.280
<v Speaker 1>the studios. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:27.400
<v Speaker 1>L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews at

0:27:27.440 --> 0:27:31.920
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:35.359
<v Speaker 1>Pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on

0:27:35.400 --> 0:27:38.840
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at Lisa abramoids one. Before the podcast, you can

0:27:38.880 --> 0:27:41.240
<v Speaker 1>always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.