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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go fifteen twenty, twenty five, thirty

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Speaker 2: thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kickers block Look college football world stand, Oh

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Speaker 3: my goodness, he stumble the football, the lateral turn a

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Speaker 3: corner of the side, get you the lad table off the.

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Speaker 2: Field to night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the sage of the game in the fighting,

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Speaker 3: it's the sage of the fighting.

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Speaker 2: Are what's up the general nation? Welcome to the Action

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Speaker 2: Network podcast. This is the Week seven college football betting preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm stuck in with me as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 2: Have you gotten over the sweat from last night? Some

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Speaker 2: Wednesday night college football? Which was nice to have the

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Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina kick to avoid the overtime and to almost

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Speaker 2: inevitably put that game over. Kid from Downingtown. We're neck

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Speaker 2: of the Woods where I grew up, drilled it a

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Speaker 2: huge win for Coastal Carolina in that program.

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Speaker 4: The real kick came for me kicking myself because we

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Speaker 4: podcasted it on Sunday night, and I said I wanted

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Speaker 4: all that I could get of Coastal since I make

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Speaker 4: the game six, and I talked myself out of it

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Speaker 4: and hopped on ull love the under for a bunch

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Speaker 4: of reasons, but you know I should have stuck with

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Speaker 4: my gut reaction.

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Speaker 5: The fact that I power rated lower than a touchdown

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Speaker 5: at Coastal.

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Speaker 2: Offense is impressive. But we have bigger and better things

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Speaker 2: to get to this weekend. We have some Friday night lights.

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Speaker 2: We have two games on Friday nights which we'll get

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Speaker 2: to money line underdogs, our favorite overdogs.

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Speaker 5: Later.

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Speaker 2: We'll go through a bunch of games in rapid fire

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Speaker 2: as well to cover what I think. There's twenty eight,

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Speaker 2: twenty nine games on the board after a number of

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Speaker 2: SEC games got postponed. We had Tulsa since he get postponed.

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Speaker 2: I was looking forward to betting that under between those

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Speaker 2: two defenses and those two offenses and thirty mile on

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Speaker 2: hour wins in your neck of the woods on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: but that got postponed as well, and who knows, we

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Speaker 2: might have a couple more postpone games.

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Speaker 1: College football is getting weird.

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Speaker 2: But we soldier on here and we bet what's on

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Speaker 2: the board, and we will start with our marquee games

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Speaker 2: of the weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting for Week seven.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with We'll get to George Alabama. I know

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Speaker 2: everyone is itching to hear about that fascinating matchup, but

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Speaker 2: let's start in the Urricid Athletic Conference with pretty much

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Speaker 2: an elimination game between two teams that many thought were

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Speaker 2: going to compete for the conference championship, between UCF and Memphis.

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Speaker 2: Right now at betegm UCF is a three point favorite

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Speaker 2: over under seventy three and a half. UCF is sitting

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Speaker 2: at two to one on the year. They're coming off

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Speaker 2: of a bye after they blew an eighteen point lead

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Speaker 2: against Tulsa two weeks ago and lost thirty four to

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Speaker 2: twenty six, only a second time in the last forty

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Speaker 2: one games that UCF didn't get to thirty. Memphis, meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: also is coming off of a bye. They are one

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Speaker 2: in one on this season. They opened up the year

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Speaker 2: with a win and non cover against Arkansas State, and

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Speaker 2: then they lost against SMU and they surprisingly also didn't

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Speaker 2: get to thirty points in that game. When you look

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Speaker 2: at this series, UCF has absolutely dominated it. I mean,

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Speaker 2: the splits are shocking. They've won thirteen in a row

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Speaker 2: all since two thousand and five. I think the only

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Speaker 2: time Memphis has won was when they were Memphis State

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Speaker 2: back in nineteen ninety so. Coming into the year, I

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Speaker 2: was very high on UCF. I was shocked that they

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Speaker 2: blew that lead against Tulsa. This is my favorite to

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Speaker 2: win the conference. I loved what they were bringing back

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Speaker 2: on defense. Obviously, their offense led by Dial Gabriel, they

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Speaker 2: have weapons all over the place. This is a team

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Speaker 2: that was extremely unlucky and their losses last year and

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Speaker 2: really could have won undefeated. They had some opt outs

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Speaker 2: which hurt their depth on the offensive defensive lines. But this,

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Speaker 2: to me is still the most talented team in the conference.

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Speaker 2: What's been killing them is penalties. Just take a look

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Speaker 2: at that Tulsa game. They had three huge turnovers and

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Speaker 2: they had eighteen penalties eighteen for one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: four yards. And they ranked seventy fifth out of seventy

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Speaker 2: six teams averaging one hundred and five penalty yards per game.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's messy. Memphis on the other hand,

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Speaker 2: a lot of transition and turnover on this team. You

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Speaker 2: know they had I mean, you just take a look

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Speaker 2: at the offense. You know, Brady White does come back

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Speaker 2: a quarterback, but you had Kenneth Gainwell, an electric running back.

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Speaker 2: He opted out. You know, they lost Antonio Gibson, who's

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Speaker 2: starring in Washington right now, is a running back, but

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Speaker 2: he was great on the outside for Memphis last year,

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Speaker 2: and their tight end Magnifico. They have Coxie back and

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Speaker 2: they do have some weapons, but the offense just hasn't

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Speaker 2: looked right. On the other side of the ball, Mike

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Speaker 2: mcindire tire takes over as defensive coordinators. They're going through

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Speaker 2: a scheme change there, but their secondary is really struggled

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Speaker 2: against Arkansas State and SMU, who lost two of their

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Speaker 2: better players during that game and still held on for

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Speaker 2: the win. What this comes down to to me is

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Speaker 2: which team is gonna which team is going to get

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Speaker 2: right over that buys Is you see, going to clean

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Speaker 2: up some of the mistakes they've made. It just I

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Speaker 2: think all they really needed to do to win this game.

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Speaker 2: Or is Memphis going to figure some things out on

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Speaker 2: the offensive side of the ball with their timing, which

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Speaker 2: has looked a little off. Brady White hasn't been as

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Speaker 2: accurate as I would have expected. You know, the defense

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Speaker 2: going through a scheme change. So how do they benefit

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Speaker 2: from those two weeks before this game? I think UCF

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Speaker 2: is the better team. I make this closer to five.

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Speaker 2: I think you make this closer to seven. So I

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Speaker 2: see value in UCF here. I like them better on

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Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. I think they ultimately win

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Speaker 2: this game in the Liberty Bowl, or I think we're

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Speaker 2: gonna have like twelve twelve thousand fans or so, which

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Speaker 2: should help Memphis a bit. What do you see here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that this is one of the more

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Speaker 4: perfect spots to be a live trader. And what I

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Speaker 4: mean by that is you're going to be able to

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Speaker 4: get both teams.

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Speaker 5: On both sides and plus money.

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Speaker 4: I mean, when you have a total as high as

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Speaker 4: seventy four and you have a point spread of three,

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Speaker 4: I mean there's really just no value at all and

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Speaker 4: taking either of these teams. I mean, the game may

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Speaker 4: end up being a field goal game. It could go

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Speaker 4: to overtime. We've seen that out of these two teams before,

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Speaker 4: so I'm not sure what the value is and taking

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Speaker 4: you know, Central Florida this earlier, even taking Memphis at

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Speaker 4: plus three unless you just want to get an opening

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Speaker 4: stance on the underdog and play it back on UCF

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Speaker 4: if it goes that way. But definitely in for another

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Speaker 4: shootout here. You know, the game is much lower than

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Speaker 4: what my projections are, but there are ways I see

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Speaker 4: for Memphis to get by in this game. You know,

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Speaker 4: Central Florida, they're going to be able to take advantage

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Speaker 4: of the Memphis pass defense, which is ranks in the

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Speaker 4: mid sixties and success rate and explosiveness, so that's a

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Speaker 4: benefit for the Knights. They're going to be able to

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Speaker 4: throw anytime they want against this defense. Don't expect Dylan

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Speaker 4: Gabriel to have any issues. Central Florida's allowed just three sacks.

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Speaker 4: They really haven't had that many hurries. I know that

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Speaker 4: there's sack rate right now is listed as number one

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Speaker 4: in the country. If you look on football outsiders, you

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Speaker 4: know both teams they're looking to move pretty fast. I mean,

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Speaker 4: we've talked about Memphis before in recent years that they're

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Speaker 4: not a fast team. They're an explosive team, which makes

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Speaker 4: people think that they're fast, But this year they actually

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Speaker 4: are running a pretty high tempo. They're twenty second and

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Speaker 4: seconds per play UCF Josh Hypel pass as always in

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Speaker 4: the nation in seconds per play, So I think we

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Speaker 4: may actually, you know, with the up temple, we may

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Speaker 4: actually get more scoring than what we're used to in

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Speaker 4: this series. But I mean, Memphis offense is ninth and

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Speaker 4: passing success rate, they're just twenty ninth and pass explosiveness.

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Speaker 4: But the thing that really stuck out to me when

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Speaker 4: you put these numbers and you combine them up against

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Speaker 4: each other is that Central Florida is seventy first against

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Speaker 4: passing EPA, which is expected points, which is you know,

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Speaker 4: it's basically close to explosiveness. That means Memphis is going

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Speaker 4: to be able to get shots down the field at

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Speaker 4: any time. I mean, UCF is ranking one of the worst,

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Speaker 4: and I'm not fooled by that score. In the Georgia

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Speaker 4: Tech game whatsoever. Georgia Tech had two plus first downs

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Speaker 4: on fifty percent of their drives. That was extremely sustainable.

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Speaker 4: That is a very high success rate against this UCF defense.

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Speaker 4: And that was just Georgia Tech, who I think we

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Speaker 4: all considered not as good of an offense as what

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Speaker 4: Memphis has, so you know, the other major advantage in

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Speaker 4: here for Central Florida, they're going to have some problems

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Speaker 4: stopping Memphis from scoring. Memphisis time twenty five and finishing drives.

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Speaker 4: They're getting points up on the board past the forty.

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Speaker 4: Central Florida is not defending it very well. There's sixtieth

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Speaker 4: out of seventy six teams that have played. They're allowing

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Speaker 4: somewhere around the high fours of points, you know, per

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Speaker 4: trip past the forty yard line. So you know, in

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Speaker 4: a live trading game, I'm gonna try to get both sides.

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Speaker 4: We'll see that going on during the day while this game,

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Speaker 4: you know, kicks off three thirty Eastern time.

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Speaker 5: But I think Memphis is.

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Speaker 4: The side, and I really want to focus on getting

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Speaker 4: them at a number that I feel comfortable taking into overtime,

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Speaker 4: which could be seven or eight, waiting to shop for

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Speaker 4: a better number, and I'll probably do the same thing

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Speaker 4: on Central Florida.

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Speaker 5: But I actually had like Memphis chances in this.

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Speaker 2: One, well, not surprisingly based on lest I disagree. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if I'm gonna take I'll take UCF if

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Speaker 2: I get a flat three, possibly, but maybe maybe not.

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Speaker 2: You do make a great point with this being a

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Speaker 2: good live trading game, and look, Bethis has come out

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Speaker 2: slow in the past two weeks. But I really think

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Speaker 2: does Memphis solve some things with a defensive and offensive

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Speaker 2: side on this by or does UCF clean up some

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Speaker 2: of the penalties and sloppiness that have that cost them

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Speaker 2: against Tulsa. Whichever team I think does either one of

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Speaker 2: those things better ultimately wins this game. But I think

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Speaker 2: that's gonna be UCF, so I would love to get

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Speaker 2: them live as a dog. If Memphis comes out and

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Speaker 2: scores first, it is.

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Speaker 6: All right.

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Speaker 2: Let's move on to our second marquee game of the day.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk a little Leech. You know, I hope there's Bigfoot.

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Speaker 7: I don't think there is. The reason I don't think

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Speaker 7: there is because we've found bones of dinosaurs and everything else,

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Speaker 7: but we haven't found bones that I've heard of of Bigfoot.

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Speaker 2: We have Leech, the declared national champion after a week

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Speaker 2: one upset of LSU when they set all kinds of

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Speaker 2: SEC records, SEC passing records, and since it has has

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Speaker 2: been a complete and utter horror show this week. You know,

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Speaker 2: the last two weeks they scored two points and fourteen

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Speaker 2: points total with I think nine interceptions. I think they

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Speaker 2: have eleven interceptions total. I think kJ Cassell is nine

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Speaker 2: of the twenty sec interceptions this year. I don't know

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Speaker 2: that's a great point.

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Speaker 7: We were like one of the most constipated offenses on Earth,

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Speaker 7: and you know we.

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Speaker 2: We're playing in Starkville, Mississippi State right now at VET.

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Speaker 2: MGM is a five and a half point underdog over

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Speaker 2: under fifty four and a half. When I look at

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Speaker 2: this game, I think, look, I was on Mississippi State

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Speaker 2: week one, I faded Mississippi State week two, I faded

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Speaker 2: Mississippi State week three, and now I'm going back to

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Speaker 2: Mississippi State. So this is the two that's true to me. Well,

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Speaker 2: and this is the spot. Look, Leech is like when

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Speaker 2: you expect him to win, he should fade him. When

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Speaker 2: he's an underdog and people start writing him off, you

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Speaker 2: should play him. He is third thirty and nineteen against

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Speaker 2: the spread. It is career as a head coach as

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Speaker 2: an underdog of four and a half points or more so.

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Speaker 2: Pretty good clip there. When when I look at this game,

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Speaker 2: look Texas A and M. Their defense has been absolutely atrocious.

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Speaker 2: There's seventy fourth and pass efficiency defense out of seventy

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Speaker 2: six teams. Their linebackers are slow, they're you know, they're

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Speaker 2: struggling on crossing routes and angles and tackling just across

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Speaker 2: the board. This pass defense has just not played great.

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Speaker 2: When you look at the matchup agains Mississippi State, everyone

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Speaker 2: knows what to do. You have to play zone right.

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Speaker 2: That's what Arkansas and Kentucky did. They rushed three and

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Speaker 2: they dropped eight back. That is the way to play

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Speaker 2: the air ray. This is how Washington had so much

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Speaker 2: succeense against Washington State. This is what they always did.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure Texas A and M does that. Maybe

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Speaker 2: they do it a lot, but this Mike Elko runs

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Speaker 2: a four two five. He likes the blitz. He this

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Speaker 2: is a four front defense. And even if they try

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Speaker 2: to do it, these are really really slow linebackers, bigger

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Speaker 2: slower linebackers that I think are going to struggle on

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Speaker 2: the crossing routes and the short passes and then you

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Speaker 2: know after the catch. Texas A and them has been miserable.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's a really good matchup for the

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Speaker 2: area defense. It'll be interesting to see exactly what Elko

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Speaker 2: and Fisher do on defense. But I don't think they're

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Speaker 2: just going to rush three and drop eight back. Could

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Speaker 2: be completely wrong, but that's just my thoughts on this.

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Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, and look, Keija

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Speaker 2: Cassol has been awful against that, you know, three man

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Speaker 2: front and dropping eight. Leech stawes a name to starting

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks for this game. He said there's going to be

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Speaker 2: a competition this week between Costello and freshman Will Rogers.

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Speaker 2: Will Rogers came in the game last week as a

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Speaker 2: freshman and he actually had some rhythm and timing in

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Speaker 2: this offense. He did throw two picks, one at the

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Speaker 2: very end of the game, one that was wrestled away

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Speaker 2: from a receiver at the goal line, but they often

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Speaker 2: had a lot more rhythm. He played in this air

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Speaker 2: raid offense in high school. It's why Leech personally recruited him.

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Speaker 2: So and look, he was in a tough spot. He

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Speaker 2: came in as a freshman. He missed the last two

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Speaker 2: games with an illness. I think he only came back

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Speaker 2: like a day or two before that game, So just

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Speaker 2: no practicing, completely out of rhythm got thrown in to

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Speaker 2: the mix. So this week. If he starts, or if

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Speaker 2: Costello struggles and they put him in, I'm sure the

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Speaker 2: Casso have a short leash. I think riders will be

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Speaker 2: much more effective here against his Texas A and M defense,

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Speaker 2: which you could just pick apart and finish drives on.

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Speaker 2: I don't support just keep fighting with us, Bryant quitting

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Speaker 2: on you played, don't quit on us. You know what

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Speaker 2: I'm saying. There's no reason to be nasty. The other

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, Texas A and M offenses played well,

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Speaker 2: but I mean they lost another receiver, Caleb Chapman is

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Speaker 2: now out for the year. He had one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty one yards and two touchdowns against Florida. So I

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Speaker 2: mean this is a team that has lost Davis and

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Speaker 2: Rogers on the outside at receiver who declared for the

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Speaker 2: NFL Draft. Their leading receiver jamon Osben opted out. They

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Speaker 2: have so basically they've lost three starting receivers from last

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Speaker 2: season and three more potential starters and tight end Baylor

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Speaker 2: Cup to injuries this year. I mean, it's crazy. And

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Speaker 2: the one very bright spot over the past three weeks

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Speaker 2: has been the Mississippi State defense playing extremely well helped

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Speaker 2: Kentucky to one hundred and fifty total yards last week.

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Speaker 2: That defensive front is playing well and that's been the

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Speaker 2: surprise of Mississippi State. So I think they can keep

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Speaker 2: this Texas A and M offensive check and Mond has

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Speaker 2: just never played that well away from Kyle Field. As

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Speaker 2: road splitzer compared to his home splits are really bad.

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Speaker 2: So I think this air raid, whether it's Costello or

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Speaker 2: now Rogers, with more time to prepare, they can have

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Speaker 2: some success against this Texas A and M defense, whether

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Speaker 2: they drop eight or not. I don't think they're going

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Speaker 2: to just do that all throughout the game, which benefits

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Speaker 2: Mississippi State. So I think this is a good spot

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Speaker 2: to buy Mississippi State. Low sell this Texas A and

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Speaker 2: M team on the road after a big win over Florida.

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Speaker 2: What do you think here?

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Speaker 4: I don't think there's anything much more for me to add.

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Speaker 4: I have a write up coming out on Friday on

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Speaker 4: Action Network, and I have Texas A and M Misissippi State,

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Speaker 4: and I took Mississippi State for all the reasons.

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Speaker 5: Stuck.

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Speaker 4: You just said for the four to five that Elko

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Speaker 4: runs for linebackers the way over two hundred and forty pounds,

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Speaker 4: that can't seem to defend anything.

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Speaker 5: In pass coverage.

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Speaker 4: kJ Costell or whoever the quarterback is going to be

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Speaker 4: is gonna be able to get everything short and then

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Speaker 4: eventually they'll be able to get something long. There is

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Speaker 4: I will say this to tease my article a little

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Speaker 4: bit more. There is a passing map in there about

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Speaker 4: who where teams are having the most success throwing against

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Speaker 4: the Texas A and M defense. It's in between the

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Speaker 4: hashes from zero to ten, from zero to ten yards.

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Speaker 4: So exactly everything Texas A and M does on defense,

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Speaker 4: Mississippi State is built to attack that. And I don't

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Speaker 4: see Elco going and changing up and switching personnel out

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Speaker 4: just for this game. I think we should keep an

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Speaker 4: eye on the crowd. I mean, Dan Mullen made a

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Speaker 4: big deal about how many people were actually in the

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Speaker 4: stadium to watch Texas A and M home game. We'll

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Speaker 4: see how Stark Vegas is doing, how many people are

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Speaker 4: going to be allowed in there. Home field advantage actually

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Speaker 4: could become a thing. We might have to actually add

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Speaker 4: a point to some of these home teams. I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: throw a little bit of a shout into the under here.

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Speaker 4: I actually do kind of like the under. These two

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Speaker 4: teams are atrocious and finishing drives. Mississippi State seventy third.

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Speaker 4: That was evident last week when kJ Costello. We get

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Speaker 4: into the red zone and throw interceptions or do whatever

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Speaker 4: you could and unscore any points. Five trips past forty

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Speaker 4: last week, no points, you know.

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Speaker 7: I mean, that's what we are JC softball teams. It's

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Speaker 7: not whether you win or lose. It's like the team

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Speaker 7: that wins is the one that has the most fun.

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Speaker 7: You know that crap like that, You know, all this

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Speaker 7: stuff that's contaminated to America where they give every kid

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Speaker 7: a trophy and they don't keep scoring a little league anymore.

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Speaker 4: Texas A and M they're not much better, sixty third

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Speaker 4: in offensive finishing drives, and both these defenses rank better

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Speaker 4: than that. Texas A and M is slow sixty seventh

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Speaker 4: and seconds per play. So I agree with everything stuck

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Speaker 4: he says. And that's the reason why I'm going to

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Speaker 4: be on the Mississippi State side, and I'm gonna throw

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Speaker 4: a shout into the under. Although I do project it

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Speaker 4: a little bit higher than what's on the market, probably

359
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Speaker 4: won't be like a high dollar play for me, but

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Speaker 4: I do think that there's going to be a struggle

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Speaker 4: to get points up on the board, because that's what

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Speaker 4: these two teams have done once they've crossed the forty

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Speaker 4: yard line.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's good to hear that you agree. I think

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Speaker 2: this game is going to go right down to the wire.

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Speaker 2: And Colin and I I just see what he puts

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Speaker 2: in on the app. We don't really share thoughts or

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Speaker 2: talk before the podcast. I think that's what makes it

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Speaker 2: so enjoyable, at least from my perspective. I own biased,

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Speaker 2: but we just come in here with our thoughts. Sometimes

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Speaker 2: we agree, sometimes we disagree, but there's no groupthink or

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Speaker 2: anything like that. So it's it's nice to hear that

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Speaker 2: you had the same exact take. I actually was gonna

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Speaker 2: write this game up, but Colin already wrote it up,

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Speaker 2: so it sounds like they're write up would have been

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Speaker 2: exactly the same. So you also mentioned the total with

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Speaker 2: the under I was conflicted there. I actually leaned over

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Speaker 2: a little bit because I think that Mississippi State's gonna

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Speaker 2: have success moving the ball. Look mind on the road,

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Speaker 2: and now he loses another weapon and text an m

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Speaker 2: is a snail, right. They're one of the slowest teams

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Speaker 2: in the country, so I think the total is a

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Speaker 2: pass for me. All right, let's move on to our

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Speaker 2: third marquee game of the day. Let's talk a little

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Speaker 2: Louisville Notre Dame. All right. At BETMGM, the official arts

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Speaker 2: provider of the Action podcast, Notre Dame is a seventeen

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Speaker 2: point favorite over under sixty one and a half. The

388
00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 2: total in this game has come down a bit there

389
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Speaker 2: is projected, but twenty plus mile an hour wins, as

390
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 2: you sometimes see in South Bend. So we'll see if

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Speaker 2: that forecast holds. But that could become an angle really

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Speaker 2: fascinating game for me because I want to find out

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Speaker 2: more about Notre Dame. But I don't know if we

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Speaker 2: will against Louisville a right, I mean, Notre Dame has

395
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Speaker 2: played nobody. They beat Florida State and didn't cover we

396
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Speaker 2: know bad Florida State's been this year. They blew out

397
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Speaker 2: South Flow and then they beat Duke after a slow

398
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,679
Speaker 2: start by two touchdowns, so one win Duke team. So

399
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Speaker 2: we haven't really seen Notre Dame against any real competition

400
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 2: so far. Louisville, on the other hand, has just been

401
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 2: absolutely dreadful. I mean, there's special teams in particular. I

402
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 2: know that they lost like their star punter and star kicker,

403
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 2: but just the mistakes that they've made have been bad.

404
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 2: And the mistakes across the board, the turnovers, they're minus

405
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 2: eight and turnover margin. You know, Cunningham, this is supposed

406
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 2: to be an electric offense, and you know you have

407
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Speaker 2: a three headed monster with the Cunningham returning a quarterback,

408
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 2: you great returning running back, and wide receiver. It just

409
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 2: hasn't been there and the mistakes have killed them. Cunningham

410
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 2: is five interceptions this year one hundred and twenty four attempts.

411
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Speaker 2: The past two years he had six over two hundred

412
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 2: and forty six attempts, so almost exactly double for four

413
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 2: to five percent interception rate this year. So the mistakes

414
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 2: have been killing them. It's been sloppy, and the defense

415
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 2: has just been non existent. So you know, I look

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Speaker 2: at this game coming into the ear, I would have

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Speaker 2: loved to have Louisville catching seventeen. I don't know how

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Speaker 2: great Notre Dame is, but I know that Louisville's been bad.

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Speaker 2: Is there going to be some positive aggression here? I

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Speaker 2: don't know. Tough game for me to cap. What do

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Speaker 2: you see here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I took this game at minus fifteen on the open,

423
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 4: sitting at minus seventeen at bet MGM, I actually kind

424
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 4: of expected to go a little bit higher. There isn't

425
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 4: a bigger discrepancy on the board this entire Week seven

426
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 4: when it comes to Havoc and finishing drives than this game.

427
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 4: Notre Dame's defense is fifth and Havoc. Louisville's offense is

428
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 4: seventy fifth and Havoc allowed. That offensive line is going

429
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 4: to get massacred. Notre Dame should be in the backfield

430
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 4: all day. Run disruption rates for Louisville should be.

431
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Speaker 5: At an all time high.

432
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Speaker 4: Other side of the ball, Notre Dame is protecting ian book.

433
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 4: They're not fumbling, they're not making mistakes. They're seventh and

434
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 4: Havoc allowed. Email defense decent the ninth and Havoc nothing great.

435
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 4: But finishing drives is the same thing. Notre Dame's defense

436
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 4: third in the nation allowing points past the forty yard

437
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 4: line when an opponent gets passed. I mean it's I

438
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,719
Speaker 4: don't know, less than two points every time they make

439
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 4: a sure it pass the forty. Louisville's offense is ranked

440
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,640
Speaker 4: thirty third. Notre Dame on offense. On the other hand,

441
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 4: when Ian Book gets that offense down past the forty,

442
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 4: they're eighth in the country ranked and finishing drives. Louisville

443
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 4: can't get out of their own way of defense. They

444
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,919
Speaker 4: just kind of olay the offense in. They're ranked sixty

445
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 4: third in defensive finishing drives. Those are two stats that

446
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,480
Speaker 4: I rely on, you know, when I'm making a pick

447
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 4: in a game, and they completely jumped off the page

448
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 4: on Sunday night, after all the advanced stats were compiled together.

449
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 4: And I'm not the kind of person that likes to,

450
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 4: you know, be hitting on a team minus fifteen on

451
00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:51,119
Speaker 4: a Sunday night when I make the game seventeen. But

452
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,919
Speaker 4: when you look at some of these, you know, numbers

453
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 4: up against each other, it just doesn't end there. I mean,

454
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 4: Notre Dame on defense, their top five and power success

455
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:02,360
Speaker 4: rate stuff, ring you know, eleventh in line yards. These

456
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 4: are things that Louisville's had problems with because their run

457
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,880
Speaker 4: disruption rate, and what that means is offensive lineman can't stick.

458
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 4: Their blox runs are being interrupted all the time. There

459
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 4: is a trench problem with the Cardinals. So you know,

460
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 4: when those numbers like that pop off the page. It's

461
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 4: you know, Betton minus fifteen. It's just something you gotta do,

462
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,199
Speaker 4: especially early in the week. Am I going to come

463
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 4: back on this? Probably not? Probably not. I think you know,

464
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 4: Notre Dame doesn't really have any kind of overlook the

465
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 4: Clemson games still a couple of weeks away. There's some

466
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 4: disrespect going on in the market. I mean, North Carolina

467
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 4: is allowing Virginia Tech to score fifty points and a

468
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 4: lot of people are making them the number four team

469
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 4: in the country. Don't think that Brian Kelly isn't paying

470
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 4: attention to that. Don't think that Brian Kelly doesn't know

471
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 4: that he feels like he's always in a disadvantage to

472
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 4: get into the college football playoff.

473
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 5: So I very much favor Notre Dame in this game.

474
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 4: I think the defense is just going to reign supreme

475
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 4: over that offensive line. The total is, you know, about

476
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 4: where it should be. This is really a question of

477
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 4: when does Notre Dame want to stop scoring. But yeah,

478
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 4: Notre Dame the Irish for me.

479
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 2: The only thing that gives me pause about what you

480
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 2: said is I mean Notre Date. Like I said before,

481
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 2: Notre Dame has played Duke, South Florida and Florida State,

482
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: three teams that don't have great offensive lines, don't have

483
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,959
Speaker 2: great quarterback play, kind of dreadful teams in general. So

484
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: are there defensive numbers inflated? Meanwhile, Louisville, I mean the

485
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech and they just had a million fumbles. But

486
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,199
Speaker 2: they also played you know, Western Kentucky. They had a

487
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 2: million fumbles on specialty, million mistakes on special teams. Western

488
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 2: Kentucky's supposed to have a really good defense, its top

489
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 2: twenty defense last year. Then they played Miami, who has

490
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 2: a good habit creating defense, and then they played pitt

491
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 2: was maybe the top three or four have it creating defense.

492
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 2: So Louisville's played like these defenses that can creat have

493
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 2: some of it's been self inflicted wounds and sloppiness, while

494
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 2: Notre Dame has had a really easy schedule. So it's

495
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 2: hard for me to distill how much of those numbers

496
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,479
Speaker 2: are real so far. But your point is well taken.

497
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 6: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

498
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 6: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast network.

499
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 6: Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

500
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

501
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 2: down of the Dallas marriage. He came everybody for the

502
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 2: lockdo On Lakers podcast. Let's Go.

503
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

504
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

505
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

506
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 6: locked on your favorite team subscribe to your locked on podcast.

507
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to our fourth marquee game

508
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 2: of the weekend, and we're gonna go back to the SEC.

509
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 2: There's really no Big Twelve this week. It is one

510
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 2: game West Virginia Kansas. Oh my god, who cash. We

511
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 2: have the Big Ten and some other conferences coming back soon,

512
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 2: so we're gonna give extra attention to those conferences when

513
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 2: they do. But not a ton of market games this weekend.

514
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 2: So I figured it'd go down to Knoxville for Kentucky

515
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 2: at Tennessee at bet MGM. Right now, Tennessee is a

516
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 2: six point favorite over under forty six. Kentucky hasn't won

517
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 2: in Knoxville since nineteen eighty four. They've lost seventeen straight.

518
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 5: Oh wow, you gotta be shitting me.

519
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 2: Just a couple hours down the road down there in Knoxville.

520
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 2: Look Kentucky has been We know what kind of fortunate

521
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 2: they got against Mississippi State, but they were pretty unlucky

522
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 2: against Ole Miss. They missed the extra point. They led

523
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 2: by fourteen in that game. They could have won that game.

524
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 2: They were really unlucky against Auburn. So they've played well

525
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 2: in some aspets. But this team can't throw the ball.

526
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: I mean, let's let's just face it. They can't. Their

527
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 2: passing offense is absolutely dreadful. They're sixty fifth out of

528
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 2: seventy six teams and yards per pass and they faced Auburn,

529
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 2: whose secondary has been torched across the board in other games.

530
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 2: Mississippi State defense been okay, but this is an elite

531
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 2: secondary and Ole Miss, who everyone throws for a million

532
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 2: yards against, and there's still sixty fifth out of seventy sixteens.

533
00:27:09,200 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 2: The one bright spot we didn't know much about the

534
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: Kentucky's receivers. One bright spot has been Josh Lee on

535
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 2: the outside, but I think Bryce Thompson, Tennessee's corner, can

536
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 2: kind of take him out of the mix. Kentucky, their

537
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 2: offensive line is the star of the show, but it

538
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 2: hasn't been in that elite so far. It's been good

539
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:33,159
Speaker 2: but not great. And Tennessee's defensive front top ten and

540
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 2: opportunity rate and stuff, right, so I think that they

541
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: can really contain this Kentucky rushing attack, and I don't

542
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 2: trust Kentucky to do much in the air. On the

543
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 2: other side of the ball, I think Kentucky's defense can

544
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 2: also contain Tennessee here. Look, I love the Tennessee offensive line,

545
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,919
Speaker 2: but I was hyping them up as the best in

546
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 2: the nation from all five stars across the board. But

547
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 2: apparently after last week they need some time in the

548
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 2: gel and it's gonna maybe take some time to mesh.

549
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 2: The strength of that Kentucky defense is up front, and

550
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 2: I think Tennessee's gonna go with a rush heavy attack.

551
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 2: That's what they generally want to focus on. I think

552
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 2: you like the dog here, which is where I would lean.

553
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 2: I think this is a really low scoring game. I

554
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 2: bet the under here. Last two years they've combined for

555
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: thirty and thirty one points, and if you throw out

556
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 2: the Georgia game, Look, I thought Tennessee was maybe ready

557
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:28,919
Speaker 2: to step up in class in the SEC. They're not,

558
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 2: and I think they could win that game. But I

559
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,440
Speaker 2: thought they could at least compete dead wrong there. Their

560
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: offense did nothing, absolutely nothing in the second half. But

561
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 2: the LA you know, Kentucky's not obviously at Georgia's level.

562
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 2: Kentucky's more on Tennessee's level. And if you look back

563
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: at the last eight games for Tennessee, excluding that Georgia game,

564
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 2: they've held opponents to under seventeen points per game on average.

565
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 2: Most of those games are against SEC opponents, and I

566
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: think UAB and Indiana and the Bowl game are in there,

567
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: so it's it's difficult for me to see either team

568
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 2: without some mistakes getting to twenty four plus. So I

569
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 2: think this game is maybe like a twenty twenty one

570
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 2: to seventeen ish final. And yeah, I think the clock's

571
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: going to be running. They're going to see two rushed,

572
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 2: heavy attacks. I think both defenses can match up in

573
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 2: that regard. Kentucky's going to struggle through the air, and

574
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 2: the Tennessee passing attack just doesn't really scare me. They

575
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 2: did a lot of damage against South Carolina when South

576
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 2: Carolina Star Corner went out, they picked on a freshman,

577
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 2: So Kentucky really just has to worry about Palmer and

578
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: that's it. So I like the under here you are

579
00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 2: siding with the Cats.

580
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the number is overinflated. I mean I

581
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 4: make it, you know, minus one and a half for Tennessee,

582
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,959
Speaker 4: so that gives some value to the sixes out there

583
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 4: in the market. I do think this is going to

584
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 4: drop before we get to kickoff. You know, I would

585
00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 4: like to call for the outright upset that Kentucky's got

586
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 4: to figure out what they're doing with Terry Wilson. I mean,

587
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 4: they've got to learn the forward pass.

588
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 3: Here.

589
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 4: You're seventy first in offensive passing success rate. That's just

590
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 4: not going to get it done.

591
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:00,520
Speaker 2: You know.

592
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 4: The rest of the numbers, they're not bad. I mean

593
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 4: they're their top twenty in line yards, they're thirteenth in

594
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 4: power success rate, they can run the ball, their thirteenth

595
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 4: in rushing success rate, but they've got to have a

596
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 4: complimentary throwing game for them to win anything. They're really

597
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 4: slow in seconds per play, which kind of shocked me

598
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 4: coming into the season that they're sixty third, which is

599
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 4: almost bottom ten as far as pace is concerned, and

600
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 4: Tennessee's actually run a little bit faster than usual, being

601
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 4: top twenty and seconds per play. I project this game

602
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 4: in forty seven, you know, so I think forty five

603
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 4: is pretty spot on. I think if I had to

604
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 4: take something on the total, I would probably take the over.

605
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 4: But I think a lot of people have the same

606
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 4: opinion as you, and that would still continue to go down.

607
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 4: So this may be a Saturday morning.

608
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 5: Play for me.

609
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 4: Although I did play Kentucky here before the pod getting

610
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 4: the sixth, but I think if the total drops anymore,

611
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 4: I may actually take an over. I mean, at some

612
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 4: point Kentucky's stoops has made mid season changes before and

613
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 4: had it work wonderfully, so I wouldn't be surprised, if

614
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 4: you know, if we're going to get some other quarterback

615
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 4: play and that may result in something new some points here.

616
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 4: But we'll see where the line goes. Drops any further

617
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 4: on the total, I might take it over fair enough,

618
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:03,239
Speaker 4: all right.

619
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: Well, as excited as I am to talk a little

620
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 2: UMass utsa utep, what's up Minor Nation, which we will

621
00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 2: get to, we still do have one other marquee game

622
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: of the weekend, and it's the game of the year potentially,

623
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 2: and we're talking Georgia at Alabama at bet MGM. Right now,

624
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: Alabama is a four point favorite over under fifty six.

625
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: This game is awesome and there's no shortage of storylines

626
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: around it. It's going to have potentially national title implications,

627
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: college football playoff implications, et cetera, et cetera. Alabama's won

628
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 2: five straight in the series. Last time they played came

629
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: back in twenty eighteen when Alabama won the National Championship

630
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 2: and SEC Championship. I combined ten points both in comeback fashion.

631
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: One of the Statu'll hear maybe a million times as

632
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 2: Nick Saban is twenty one to zero head to head

633
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 2: against his former assistance, But I mean, I hate that

634
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 2: stat in many ways because most of the time Alabama

635
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 2: is supremely more talented than the team that they're facing.

636
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 2: Where Saban's assistants have gone to coach and he said

637
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 2: as much this week. So yeah, well, a lot of

638
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 2: times my assistants leave and they go to programs that

639
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: don't get I thought I'd as much talent as Alabama.

640
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 2: This is the first time, if you look at two

641
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: four to seven Sports Talent Composite, which looks at the

642
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 2: composite rankings of all the recruits on the team, just

643
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: the first time Saban has ever faced maybe any opponent,

644
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: but one of his assistants where the other team is

645
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 2: more talented on paper across the board, it's one versus two,

646
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 2: by the way, George's one, Alabama's two, and it's fractions,

647
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: and it's including you know, non starters and all the

648
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: recruiting classes that are coming in. The point is is

649
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 2: that it's a fair fight now, just like it wasn't

650
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 2: twenty eighteen when Georgia could have won either of those games,

651
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 2: and they can win this game. Looks like Stefan Bennett

652
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 2: is going to be the quarterback once again under center.

653
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 2: He's done his job so far this year. I'm still

654
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 2: not sold on him being a national title quarterback, but

655
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: maybe I'm wrong. Georgia defense probably the best defense in

656
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 2: the nation. Alabama offense arguably the best offense in the nation.

657
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 2: You look at most stats, it's gonna be Alabama's number

658
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 2: one in college football on offense and Georgia's number one

659
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: on defense. Strength on strength on that side of the ball.

660
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 2: The other side of the ball, Georgia's offense it's doing okay.

661
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 2: It's not one of the best offenses in the country.

662
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: It's good offensive line, they have some weapons on the outside.

663
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 2: You've Bennetto's you know, not making mistakes and making the

664
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 2: plays that he needs to. And then the Alabama defense,

665
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 2: this is the big question. Look, I know Ole Miss

666
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 2: is gonna put it on a lot of teams this year,

667
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 2: but I went back and watched that game. I wasn't

668
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 2: able to watch most of it, and there were some

669
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 2: troubling signs for Alabama. The just guys out of position,

670
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 2: the coverage was off. You We're kind of getting pushed

671
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 2: around a little bit up front. So I don't know,

672
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 2: Maybe this Alabama defense isn't what I thought it was

673
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 2: gonna be this year. Maybe they'll get there, but I

674
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 2: think that there's some holes on this Alabama defense. I

675
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 2: think Georgia will be able to move the ball, and

676
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 2: as great as I think this Georgia defense is, the

677
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 2: Alabama offense, I just don't know how you stop it.

678
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 2: And Mac Jones is playing at such a high level.

679
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: They ha NFL receivers, NFL running back, the NFL offensive line,

680
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: so you know, I and George is not a havoc

681
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 2: creating machine. So I think Mac Jones is going to

682
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 2: have time to throw and you can't cover those receivers.

683
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 2: So initially I was thinking looking at this game and

684
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 2: I was leaning towards the under just on how I

685
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 2: thought it would play out. Now I'm thinking over. I

686
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: don't think that Georgia is going to have trouble moving

687
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: the ball, and I don't think anyone can really stop

688
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 2: this Alabama offense. So I'm starting to look at these

689
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: over fifty six, which is intriguing to me. And then

690
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 2: the biggest, one of the biggest wild cords here is

691
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 2: Nick Saban. He is COVID. As soon as it was

692
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,439
Speaker 2: announced the line dropped from six and a half down

693
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 2: to four four and a half. So I'll start there

694
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 2: with you. And we don't know if there's going to

695
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,680
Speaker 2: be more Alabama COVID cases that come out or not.

696
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: We shall see. So start there with you. What do

697
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 2: you what do you think the Saban news means to

698
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 2: the game and to the spread? And then what are

699
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 2: your thoughts on the matchup?

700
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 4: Well, I was, I mean, I'm not surprised by the

701
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 4: line move whatsoever, because you and I were podcasting back

702
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 4: when urban Meyer was suspended for three games and it

703
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 4: took you know, a two point move on the week

704
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 4: one game and then all of his futures on the board.

705
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 4: The game of the years all took a two point dive,

706
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 4: so I'm not surprised what.

707
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: We said it's worth about He's worth about was worth

708
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:47,240
Speaker 2: about two points of the spread.

709
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 4: But you know, I'm going to take a different angle

710
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,120
Speaker 4: at this and and if you want to read more

711
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 4: into it, and you want to look at some advanced

712
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 4: stats and some graphics, I encourage you to look at

713
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 4: the write up that I'll have on Action Network tomorrow.

714
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 5: But let's talk about Savan's.

715
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 4: Real value to game day, right, because what you're gonna

716
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 4: hear on competitor podcasts, Oh, this team's pretty good with

717
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 4: the offense, and this team's pretty good on the defense.

718
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 5: I just don't know who it's gonna happen. I mean,

719
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,240
Speaker 5: it's just nobody's.

720
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 4: Really diving into the real issue with Alabama. So let's

721
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 4: break it down. For the first time in years, they

722
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 4: have stability at the coordinators, right. Steve Sarkshan's been there.

723
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 4: He was there in twenty sixteen as an analyst for

724
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 4: a little bit, came back as the offensive coordinator last year.

725
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 4: Pete Golding is the defensive coordinator.

726
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 5: He was a huge.

727
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 4: Rising star at UTSA. Utsa was known for their havoc

728
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 4: while he was there Savan went and scooped him up.

729
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 4: He was an assistant After the old Tosh Lapoy years,

730
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 4: where Saban essentially had to take over play calling and

731
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 4: take over the defense once again, Pete Golding was promoted

732
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:57,440
Speaker 4: up to defensive coordinator. So you have to ask yourself, like,

733
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 4: which side of the ball is gonna suffer from Nick

734
00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 4: Saban not being there unless they hang him over Brian

735
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 4: Denny like Chris Jericho in a WW wrestling match where

736
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,280
Speaker 4: they're like put him in a cage, you know. Anyways,

737
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 4: that's just me and my wrestling phantom. But no, who

738
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 4: does it affect the most? I don't think it affects

739
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 4: Steve Sarkisian whatsoever. Look at this Bama offense over the years.

740
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter if it's been lame, it doesn't matter

741
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,279
Speaker 4: if it's been stark. We've gone from Jalen Hurts to

742
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 4: two attack of viola to Mac Jones and there's been

743
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,440
Speaker 4: zero drop off in this offense. Mac Jones is running

744
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 4: this offense perfectly. I heard somebody, I saw somebody stayed out.

745
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 4: Wellbama only has seven passes over twenty yards? Are you

746
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,919
Speaker 4: kidding me? Those seven passes that have gone for over

747
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 4: twenty yards have totaled three hundred and sixty six yards.

748
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 4: Mac Jones is running this offense as well as the

749
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 4: household names that you know. I don't think Saban not

750
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 4: being there affects this offense whatsoever. I think there's zero

751
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 4: drop off the points spread. Should not you know, be

752
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 4: moving because of that. Now flip side. Pete Golding, Yeah,

753
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:09,919
Speaker 4: that's a problem. Pete Golding came under fire last year,

754
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 4: you know, because their rushing success rate for the Crimson

755
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:16,840
Speaker 4: Tide completely you know, fell down, like outside the top twenty.

756
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 4: They were allowing explosive runs. We blamed it all on injury.

757
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 4: We blamed it all on Dylan Moses not being there.

758
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 4: Dylan Moses, captain of the defense, calls the plays, lines

759
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 4: up at linebacker, gets everybody into position. So the big

760
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 4: criticism of Alabama last year in the defense was that

761
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 4: players were not lined up correctly. We have too many injuries.

762
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,719
Speaker 4: And then we had a couple of players going to

763
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 4: the NFL Draft and made comment about Pete Golding back

764
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 4: in April or May and said that the communication was

765
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 4: poor from the press box to Pete Golding to the field.

766
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 4: We could get plays in they were confusing, didn't make

767
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 4: any sense. That's why players in the secondary were lined

768
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 4: up in correctly, linebackers were lined up in correctly, blitzes

769
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:03,919
Speaker 4: weren't inter pretty great, and so we blamed it all

770
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 4: on Dylan Moses being hurt last year, the fact that

771
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 4: we didn't have our captain on the field to call that. Well,

772
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 4: it turns out here we are again Alabama. Defensively, they're

773
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 4: sixty second in passing success rate. On defense, they're forty

774
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 4: eighth in defending the explosive pass in passing EPA, thirty

775
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:24,280
Speaker 4: seventh in defensive rushing success rate. Things have not improved. Listen,

776
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 4: I know old missus on the schedule, but these were

777
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 4: there when they played Missouri in Week one. These were

778
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,959
Speaker 4: a problem. So I think Pete Golding is the one

779
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 4: that really is going to struggle here, and without Saban

780
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 4: there to help him tweak the defense and give him

781
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 4: an assist and tell him where in the line of

782
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 4: certain players and the biggest thing, make halftime adjustments, make

783
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 4: quarterly adjustments, drive to drive, play to play. That's why

784
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 4: Saban came in and took tosh Lapoise duties completely away.

785
00:39:54,239 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 5: No more defensive play calling for you. You're done.

786
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 4: It's mine now. Saban has wanted Pete Golding to succeed.

787
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 4: He loves Pete Golding, but it's just not happening. You know,

788
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 4: there was a rant from Paul Finbaum about getting him

789
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 4: fired earlier this summer. The numbers speak for themselves. In

790
00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 4: two hundred and thirty six defensive plays, Let's think about

791
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 4: the stat In two hundred and thirty six defensive plays,

792
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 4: Alabama has nine passes defensed.

793
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 5: Nine. That's it.

794
00:40:22,920 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 4: They're not knocking down anything. So if we're going to

795
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 4: talk about the point spread and the movement, how does

796
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,160
Speaker 4: Saban not being there affect the coordinators? It affects the

797
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 4: offense zero. I think it affects the defense big time.

798
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 4: So for those reasons, you know, we can talk about

799
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,080
Speaker 4: side all you want stuff, but I mean, there.

800
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:43,440
Speaker 5: I'm going to jump to the Georgia side. Do you

801
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:44,839
Speaker 5: want to do you want to comment on that? Before

802
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 5: I jumped to the Georgia side.

803
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 2: I thought the defense coming in to this year and

804
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 2: it was a problem last year. I mean, just look

805
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 2: back to that LSU game. But I thought that defense

806
00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:00,359
Speaker 2: those problems. Look this Alabama is always reloading. They have

807
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 2: coordinator consistency. They were injuries all over. But you know,

808
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: so I thought that this year we were going to

809
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: see a drastic jump in that defense. And then, you know,

810
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 2: I didn't get to watch much of that Alabama Ole

811
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 2: Miss game. So I went back and watched it, and yes,

812
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 2: the ole Miss offense is electric, but every single third down,

813
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 2: Ole Miss would con third and long. Every time guys

814
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 2: wide open missed assign that's over the middle of the field.

815
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 2: I mean, linebacker's out of place, dyl Moses not out

816
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 2: of place. And we know it's a really young secondary

817
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 2: and the defensive line isn't playing up to snuff. So

818
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 2: just from the eye test alone, it's not just Hey,

819
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 2: it was one Old Miss game and they were electric,

820
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,320
Speaker 2: blah blah blah. And I think that you're right with

821
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 2: with Saban not being there to make adjustments on the

822
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball, because I don't I mean,

823
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 2: I don't think that anyone can really slow down this

824
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 2: Alabama offense. If anyone's gonna do it, it's Georgia. But

825
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 2: it's hard for me now after watching that game, it's

826
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 2: hard for me to envision both of these teams not

827
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:12,960
Speaker 2: getting to twenty eight, which is ultimately why I like

828
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: over fifty six. So yeah, I completely agree with you.

829
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:24,479
Speaker 2: There's real fundamental problems on this Alabama defense now their

830
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 2: offense just with a little improvement on the defensive side

831
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:29,760
Speaker 2: of the ball, their offense might be able to carry

832
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:34,000
Speaker 2: them to a national championship. But on the flip side,

833
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:37,359
Speaker 2: his defense might end up costing them a national championship

834
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 2: against elite competition.

835
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:40,919
Speaker 4: So let me back you up on the over here,

836
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 4: because I did take a first half over and the

837
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,719
Speaker 4: reason I went first half instead of the full game,

838
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 4: which I may still come out and hit the full

839
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 4: game is because the second.

840
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 2: When you like the full game more though, because you

841
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 2: don't have Saban adjusting well.

842
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 4: Jordan Battle's out for the first half and he's targeting,

843
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:59,319
Speaker 4: Yeah for targeting in the second half against Ole Miss,

844
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 4: He's gonna set out first half. I don't expect Pee

845
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,760
Speaker 4: Golding to make any defensive changes in the first half,

846
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 4: and with Jordan Battle out, who's third in the team

847
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,319
Speaker 4: and tackles, I just think Georgia is gonna have their way. Now,

848
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 4: there's other things that I'm hearing, like I Kirby mentioned

849
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 4: the word sloppy twenty times in his Monday presser. Kirby's

850
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 4: being coy about tempo.

851
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 7: Here.

852
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,320
Speaker 5: He's saying, I'll be honest with you, football gets sloppy.

853
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 5: When you go fast.

854
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:24,800
Speaker 4: It doesn't mean it's not successful. But when you're sloppy,

855
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 4: fundamentals go down and stats go up. You know, he

856
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 4: said about the whole group text with Lane, he says,

857
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 4: you know, being fast is just laying style, and the

858
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 4: key to beating Bama is sustainable drives, no three and outs.

859
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:43,240
Speaker 4: So let's let's talk about that. Can Georgia have sustainable

860
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:49,400
Speaker 4: drives against Alabama's defense? I think the answer is obviously yes.

861
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 4: Two plus first downs against Tennessee forty six percent of

862
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 4: the drives, two plus first downs drives against Auburn seventy

863
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:02,919
Speaker 4: seven percent Arkansas. Let's throw the first half out right.

864
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,720
Speaker 4: That was mathis that was the first game of the season.

865
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 4: If you look at the second half when they had

866
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 4: the outburst, four of their five drives had two plus

867
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 4: first downs and another drive that ended with a field goal.

868
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 4: I think you know you need to look at Kirby

869
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 4: being coy about going tempo. He says, it's sloppy and

870
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 4: you lose your fundamentals. He wants he is going to

871
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 4: He wants to go tempo so that he can have

872
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 4: Alabama on their heels, lined up in correctly and making mistakes.

873
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 4: I really like Eric Stokes and Richard LeCount on defense

874
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 4: for Georgia. I mean the count is to be He's

875
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 4: the key to the game. So as far as passes

876
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 4: defense against the Alabama against the Alabama skill positions, he's

877
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 4: drawing comparisons to Roquan Smith, especially in sniffing out the run.

878
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 4: He could close from the safety position to getting a

879
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,319
Speaker 4: running back on the line of scrimmage and quicker than

880
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 4: I could see any other defender in the nation. And

881
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 4: one other thing for the over available yards is a

882
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 4: stat that calculates the percentage of how many yards you

883
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 4: got on your drive. So if you start your drive

884
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 4: at the twenty yard line, there's eighty available yards. This

885
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 4: is why I don't think Alabama can be stopped. I

886
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 4: think the Georgia defense is great, but this is why

887
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 4: I don't think the Alabama defense can be stopped. Teams

888
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 4: are generally around forty percent of available yards. Bama's gone

889
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 4: sixty percent sixty percent, and last week AGA's old miss

890
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 4: they achieved ninety one percent of their available yards, which

891
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:26,280
Speaker 4: may be an all time record.

892
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 5: I'm not sure.

893
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 4: I think the over in the first half is good.

894
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 4: I'm not sure what kind of changes are gonna happen

895
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 4: before the second half. But I just think it's an

896
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,319
Speaker 4: over game in general, and if if Kirby decides that

897
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 4: he wants to go tempa, which Stetson Bennett can do,

898
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 4: then this game definitely will go over. Do I like

899
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 4: Georgia to win the game? I power rate a three

900
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:45,479
Speaker 4: and a half. I don't have much of an edge here,

901
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 4: you know. I think the bouncing between the dead numbers

902
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:49,880
Speaker 4: and the four and a halfs and the five and

903
00:45:49,920 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 4: a half is not that big of a difference to me.

904
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 4: Am I gonna get involved live? I probably would on

905
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 4: Georgia if I ever saw that seven. That's really where

906
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 4: the sharps were coming in and starting to hammer the

907
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 4: number this week. It never got to a seven, got

908
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 4: to six and a half, and it took in plenty

909
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:07,040
Speaker 4: of action. If I see at Georgia seven, you can

910
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 4: probably expect me to fire. But in an over game

911
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:12,760
Speaker 4: where everybody's going tempo, I'm gonna take the best offense,

912
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 4: and that best offense is Alabama, So I think the

913
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 4: target window for Live on the Side is an Alabama

914
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 4: pick to a Georgia plus seven. But count me all

915
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 4: in on the over because I don't believe in Pete

916
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 4: golding by himself without Nick Saban unless they're hanging him

917
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 4: in a short shirt tank cage above the field, the

918
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 4: Mister Jordan battle in the first half. Lots of things

919
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 4: here pointing to Alabama having a bad defensive day.

920
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 2: Well, there you have it. Make sure you check out

921
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 2: the right up the call will have on a lot

922
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:42,239
Speaker 2: of content for Alabama Georgia on the Action Network AP

923
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: and actionework dot com. And just a reminder on to

924
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 2: go to the podcast xt door podcast. Leave a review

925
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 2: really helps us out. Appreciate your support, Tell a friend,

926
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:55,919
Speaker 2: telling enemy, and the voicemails during that Georgia Alabama game,

927
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 2: I expect to hear from Minor Nation. I expect to

928
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 2: hear from meat Meat Nation. Never had a utsa fan

929
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: call UMass. We're going to get to some of these

930
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 2: games now, but I light up the voicemails all weekend long,

931
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:10,720
Speaker 2: all right before we get to the rundown. I didn't

932
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:14,320
Speaker 2: want to remind everyone of the Action Network podcast Tournament

933
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,680
Speaker 2: of Champions presented by bet MGM. It's a free weekly

934
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 2: Yahoo DFS tournament specifically for you, our podcast listeners, and

935
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 2: you can join just by clicking on the link in

936
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 2: the episode description. Top ten weekly finishers receive over one

937
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:30,439
Speaker 2: thousand dollars worth of action over prizes. Top five each

938
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 2: week punch their ticket to the Wildcard Weekend Grand Finale,

939
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 2: where you'll compete for the grand prize, which is the

940
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Speaker 2: last Vegas trip for two vale at over five thousand

941
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 2: dollars courtesy of BETMGM, the official outs provider the action

942
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 2: of our podcast. Again, it's a free tournament, no rake,

943
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,399
Speaker 2: It's just for our podcast listeners. Just click the link

944
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 2: in the description. It's for every week of the NFL

945
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 2: regular season. You could join one week and not the next,

946
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 2: or join every week whenever you remember. Just click on

947
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 2: the link in our episode description. All right, let's move

948
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:59,840
Speaker 2: on to the best of the rest. Let's start in

949
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 2: the ACC with Pitt and Miami at bet MGM. Miami

950
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 2: is now a thirteen and a half point favorite over

951
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 2: under forty seven and a half. I took, but we

952
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,359
Speaker 2: have Miami obviously, was came back crashing down the earth

953
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 2: got sunned by Clemson sorry, Kayne's nation not a national

954
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 2: title contender. Pitt is coming off two straight one point losses,

955
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 2: heartbreak losses for Pitt. I took the under here under

956
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:33,839
Speaker 2: forty eight and a half down to forty seven and

957
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 2: a half, which I still like. No team is no

958
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,319
Speaker 2: team has scored more than twenty four points, which you

959
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 2: obviously need to do to get over forty eight in

960
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 2: this matchup. The past three years, I think the final

961
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 2: was like fourteen twelve or like fourteen to nine last year.

962
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 2: I still believe in the Pitt defense. All the advanced

963
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 2: metrics tell me to believe in them, especially against the run.

964
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:56,920
Speaker 2: You just can't run on this pit team, and the

965
00:48:56,960 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 2: Miami offense just it's not efficient. I don't trust them

966
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 2: to move the ball through the air enough against Pitt

967
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 2: and the other side of the ball. The Miami defense

968
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 2: still a formidable unit. You can maybe throw in them

969
00:49:09,120 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 2: a little bit. But guess who's probably not playing for Pitt,

970
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,120
Speaker 2: Kenny Pickett. And that's one of the reasons why I

971
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:17,359
Speaker 2: think this line has moved from nine and a half

972
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 2: ten and a half up to thirteen and a half.

973
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:23,279
Speaker 2: Speculation is there will be an announcement tomorrow that he

974
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 2: will have surgery on his ankle and you'll get one

975
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:29,359
Speaker 2: of two freshmen in there for Pitt. So I think

976
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:31,240
Speaker 2: this is a slug fest. You might even see Miami

977
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,439
Speaker 2: come out a little flat. They were so high going

978
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 2: into that Clemson game and then just to get embarrassed

979
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 2: like that. So I think this is a slug fest

980
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 2: like we've seen the past three years between these teams.

981
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 2: Anything in Pitt Miami.

982
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, no play for me in this, especially with the

983
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 4: Kenny Pigant news. But even if he was playing, I

984
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,000
Speaker 4: wouldn't Backpit because there's just certain things that I see

985
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:51,359
Speaker 4: in the advanced numbers that just would scare me to death.

986
00:49:51,760 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 4: You know, Miami number one of the nation in rush

987
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 4: explosiveness and Pitt's defense is fifty ninth, highly successful defense,

988
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 4: but they can give up, you know, plenty of big plays.

989
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 4: There's other things in there, like you know, the havoc

990
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 4: on both sides of the ball, like Pit's number one,

991
00:50:06,840 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 4: Miami's thirteenth, and their offenses are not very good at

992
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 4: protecting the ball. I think that's really gonna wear on

993
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 4: a pit, you know, offense more so, you know, for me,

994
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 4: it's ten and a half. No play for me, especially

995
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 4: with that picket. So I will, I will lay off.

996
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 2: On this game. It'll come down. It's a really aggressive,

997
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 2: pressing pit defense that gets after the quarterback, and you

998
00:50:31,320 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 2: because of that, you can hit some explosive plays on there.

999
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 2: I just don't think Mimi's going to hit enough to

1000
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 2: get this game over the total. All right, let's move

1001
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 2: on to Auburn at South Carolina. At that MGM right now,

1002
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 2: Auburn is a three point favorite juice three minus one

1003
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 2: twenty over under fifty one and a half. I was

1004
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:54,760
Speaker 2: surprised you have this number at seven. I've downgraded Auburn significantly.

1005
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 2: Apologies to Bow nixt season, Guy Bow next season then

1006
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:04,480
Speaker 2: full effect. But look, I mean, Auburn's went the ranked fifteenth.

1007
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 2: They got blown out by Georgia dominated. They should have

1008
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 2: lost to Arkansas. They did lose. If you've seen our

1009
00:51:10,960 --> 00:51:13,359
Speaker 2: memes going back and forth, Arkansas should be two and one.

1010
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:16,800
Speaker 2: They got really lucky against Kentucky with a number of

1011
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 2: flute plays. So this Alburt team realistically could be zero

1012
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 2: to three, right, I mean, and then the whole perception

1013
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 2: of this team is a lot different South Carolina. Meanwhile,

1014
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,800
Speaker 2: they lost my two touchdowns to Florida, they blew out Vanderbilt,

1015
00:51:33,560 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 2: and they lost a close game at home to Tennessee

1016
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 2: a lot, mainly because their star corner is going to

1017
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 2: play in the NFL. Mgama went out with an injury.

1018
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 2: So I just think this Alburn team is not very good.

1019
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 2: Their offensive line, which is all brand new, hasn't been

1020
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 2: impressive to me. Their brand new secondary hasn't been impressive

1021
00:51:52,760 --> 00:51:55,680
Speaker 2: to me. Bo Nicks hasn't taken as big of a

1022
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 2: leap yet as I expected him to do this year.

1023
00:52:01,080 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 2: And I mean, the Alburn defensive numbers are just they're bad,

1024
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 2: especially in the secondary, and the offensive line numbers are

1025
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: really troublesome. I don't think they're going to get much

1026
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 2: of a push against South Carolina, and I think South

1027
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,839
Speaker 2: Carolina can make enough plays through the air to get

1028
00:52:16,840 --> 00:52:19,480
Speaker 2: this done. It's I want a flat three and a half.

1029
00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:21,960
Speaker 2: I know you make this closer to a touchdown, So

1030
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 2: you haven't completely maybe sold out on bow Nixxy's and

1031
00:52:26,239 --> 00:52:26,879
Speaker 2: any thoughts here.

1032
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 4: No, really, it's kind of a reflection of bo Nix's weapons.

1033
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 4: Eli Stove didn't play against Arkansas. I think he's questionable

1034
00:52:33,600 --> 00:52:35,680
Speaker 4: for this game. Seth Williams is not one hundred percent.

1035
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,160
Speaker 4: He wasn't during the Arkansas game. He may not play here.

1036
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 4: Anthony Schwartz is going to get all the attention, which

1037
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 4: means all the game Cock secondary just really has to

1038
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 4: focus on him because without Seth Williams and Eli Stove,

1039
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,319
Speaker 4: especially either of them not being one hundred percent, that's

1040
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 4: gonna limit what bow Knicks can do. Tank Bigsby's been

1041
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 4: fantastic for Auburn, but at the same time, you know,

1042
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 4: they have to have an offensive line that can you know,

1043
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 4: block for him and protect fro him, and that's just

1044
00:53:01,640 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 4: not happening. Forty six in line yards, you know, forty

1045
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 4: eighth and stuff rate. I can't take South Carolina because

1046
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 4: it's not a number that I you know, if I

1047
00:53:10,040 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 4: projected much higher at seven and a half, if Bonix

1048
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:14,280
Speaker 4: loses all his weapons, how far is that number supposed

1049
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:16,719
Speaker 4: to come down. I think three's not a lot of

1050
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,759
Speaker 4: edge with South Carolina at three. Could be wrong, but

1051
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 4: without bon Nicks's weapons, I'm staying away on this game.

1052
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 2: South Carolina. On against Vanderbilt, they didn't really need anyone

1053
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 2: to win that game. They're starting defensive tackle Kiara Thomas

1054
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 2: didn't play and Jalen Dickerson, who does come in at

1055
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 2: safety and play some he didn't play either, and they're

1056
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 2: and Israel Mukyamu, their star cornerback who will get drafted.

1057
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:47,080
Speaker 2: He only played fourteen snaps and he has been dealing

1058
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 2: with a groin injury, and his backup isn't great. That's

1059
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 2: when I mean he went out against Tennessee and they

1060
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:55,000
Speaker 2: just picked him apart. I think that it was more

1061
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:59,320
Speaker 2: precautionary than anything on both sides because they didn't really

1062
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:02,040
Speaker 2: need them. Must Champions said he's not giving any injury

1063
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: info the rest of the year, but he did say

1064
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: in passing when asked. Someone still asked a reporter and said,

1065
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:11,840
Speaker 2: do you think that those three will be back for

1066
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:14,439
Speaker 2: this game? And he said, I think so. So I'm

1067
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 2: assuming that they all three will play. And if you

1068
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 2: only have one real threat on that Auburn wide receiver

1069
00:54:24,000 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 2: Cord that's fully healthy, buk Yamo can match up, and

1070
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 2: I think that's a problem. I think South KNA wins

1071
00:54:29,960 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 2: this game. All right, let's move on to the next game.

1072
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 2: By the way, Stabb, we don't have any broced over

1073
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 2: this week. Colin needs to talk some hogs ole miss

1074
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 2: at Arkansas at BETMGM. Right now, Arkansas is a one

1075
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:52,000
Speaker 2: and a half point home dog over under seventy five. Look,

1076
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,440
Speaker 2: I don't get too much involved with Arkansas games, so

1077
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:58,439
Speaker 2: I'll let you handle those COVID news With Old Miss,

1078
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 2: this game might get postponed. We don't know who's infected,

1079
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 2: but they apparently are dealing with an outbreak. They're coming

1080
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 2: off that Bama game. Is there a letdown? Who's going

1081
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 2: to be out? We know the Old Missed offense is

1082
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 2: really good. We know the defense is absolutely atrocious. Maybe

1083
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:17,840
Speaker 2: this will come down to which team can get two stops. Maybe,

1084
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 2: but a lot of uncertainty on this game. What do

1085
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 2: you say, whoo pick suy absolute dumpster fined, dumpster fine.

1086
00:55:25,680 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 5: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1087
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 5: of the year, just blowing program up.

1088
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:29,719
Speaker 2: Give us a death.

1089
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: Sentence Collins talking razorback football.

1090
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, no one can stop the stop Ole

1091
00:55:36,080 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 4: Miss from scoring except maybe COVID. After not having a

1092
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 4: positive test for like a month, they're dealing with a

1093
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 4: COVID outbreak. So we don't know how many people are available.

1094
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 4: If it's not Matt Carrall and Elijah Moore, then the

1095
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:49,719
Speaker 4: offense should be good to go. There are games have

1096
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 4: averaged ninety three points so far, Old Miss dead last

1097
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 4: and finishing drives d so you would expect a ton

1098
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,239
Speaker 4: of points here. Right before we podcast start running back

1099
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:00,800
Speaker 4: for Arkansas, ra Keen Boyd made his announcement that he's returning.

1100
00:56:01,320 --> 00:56:03,479
Speaker 4: Sam Pittman's comment on that was like, oh, I guess

1101
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:05,439
Speaker 4: I should get a Twitter account and check Twitter more

1102
00:56:05,480 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 4: because I didn't even know that he was back. The

1103
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 4: ole Miss offense is top five and seconds per play

1104
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 4: and in passing success rates, so you can expect more

1105
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 4: of that to come. They have more forty yard passes.

1106
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 4: I'm not talking twenty, I'm not talking about thirty. They

1107
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:20,360
Speaker 4: have more forty yard passes than anybody in the country

1108
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 4: at eight. The ole Miss d is dreadful. Everybody should

1109
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 4: know that there's seventy fifth and seventy six and rushing

1110
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 4: can pass success rate.

1111
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:30,239
Speaker 5: That's bottom of the barrel for the Hogs. Here's the thing.

1112
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:33,000
Speaker 4: I took the over in this game based upon the

1113
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:35,360
Speaker 4: fact that I think you should just take overs and

1114
00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 4: Old Miss games, you know, until we get proven wrong.

1115
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 4: And mostly that has to do with their defense and

1116
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:42,760
Speaker 4: their offense. But for the Hogs.

1117
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 5: They may be missing their top two tacklers. They're questionable

1118
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 5: for this game.

1119
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 4: Bumper Pool and Grant Morgan, top two tacklers leaders on

1120
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 4: the defense, they might not play in this game. And

1121
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 4: if they don't, that's a huge problem against this Old

1122
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,080
Speaker 4: Miss offense. Ra Kem Boyd, I just said running backst

1123
00:56:57,080 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 4: Are running back for the Hogs on offense, just made

1124
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 4: his announcement he's coming back. That is going to be

1125
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:05,759
Speaker 4: perfect against an Ole Miss defense that is seventy fourth.

1126
00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 5: In line yards. I didn't know you could be that

1127
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 5: bad as an SEC team. You know. The one thing

1128
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:12,760
Speaker 5: I should say, You know the Hogs d does rank.

1129
00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 4: Second against pass explosiveness, So that's really going to be

1130
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:17,840
Speaker 4: put to the test here against against Lane Kiffin's offense

1131
00:57:18,440 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 4: and their tenth in defensive finishing drives. So if we

1132
00:57:21,080 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 4: lose the overticket on here, maybe the Hogs stand up,

1133
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 4: and if they do, then you know they can win

1134
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 4: this game. I expect to have a bet on the Hogs,

1135
00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:30,480
Speaker 4: which I think I do it three, but I'm going

1136
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:32,120
Speaker 4: to hit him again. I knew when the COVID news

1137
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 4: came in, I wanted to get a piece of Arkansas

1138
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 4: if they become any bigger of a dog and live

1139
00:57:36,400 --> 00:57:38,800
Speaker 4: in game, this is another number that I'm going to hit.

1140
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 4: I absolutely think this game could go to overtime. I

1141
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 4: absolutely think Arkansas can win this game. But the one

1142
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:45,680
Speaker 4: thing I'm sure of is if Grant Morgan and Bumperpool

1143
00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 4: are out for Arkansas's defense, this total should fly.

1144
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:53,760
Speaker 2: Now you have a Collin on his hogs. Woo big Sue.

1145
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 2: All right, no, next game before we get the minor nation,

1146
00:57:57,520 --> 00:57:59,920
Speaker 2: We'll talk about this game for five seconds. Georgia Southern

1147
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 2: thirty one point favorite at home against U MASS. I

1148
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:05,200
Speaker 2: don't know what I'm gonna do with this game. I

1149
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 2: might take U Mass, but I don't know. It's a

1150
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 2: triple option team laying thirty one. We saw Georgia Southern

1151
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 2: lay a huge number against Bob Monroe, who's maybe one

1152
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 2: of the worst teams in FBS this year, and they

1153
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:18,959
Speaker 2: barely won. The game came down to a ten minute

1154
00:58:19,000 --> 00:58:20,800
Speaker 2: review at the end of the game over a half

1155
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:24,240
Speaker 2: of a yard. It's very difficult for triple option teams

1156
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:26,920
Speaker 2: to cover this number. At least you Mass saw a

1157
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 2: triple option team last year. They did lose by about

1158
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 2: sixty which is a little troubling and one of the

1159
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:35,160
Speaker 2: worst defenses in the history of college football. And they

1160
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 2: played Georgia Southern I think twice the two years prior

1161
00:58:37,720 --> 00:58:39,840
Speaker 2: to that. The thing is is that, look, we've bet

1162
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 2: I've been over this before. Teams playing their first game

1163
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 2: have a significant advantage over teams that have played a

1164
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:49,520
Speaker 2: couple games every year, and especially this year, it's insane.

1165
00:58:49,560 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 2: It's like seventy eighty percent against the spread. Historically it's

1166
00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 2: like fifty seven percent against the spread because you have

1167
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 2: film another team. The team doesn't have film on you,

1168
00:58:57,320 --> 00:58:59,760
Speaker 2: U mass playing their first game. What does Georgia Southern

1169
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 2: expect here? I don't know. And it might be UMass's

1170
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:05,440
Speaker 2: only game of the fall, their only I think it's

1171
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:08,400
Speaker 2: their only game scheduled right now, so they're gonna pull

1172
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:11,760
Speaker 2: out all the stops. I would imagine trick plays who knows,

1173
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:13,720
Speaker 2: And Georgia Southern now is a big game. With Coastal

1174
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:16,640
Speaker 2: Carolina on deck, that game is now a lot bigger.

1175
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 2: So maybe there's some look ahead here. Pull your starters

1176
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 2: a little sooner, and this might be my only chance

1177
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:25,720
Speaker 2: to get to play UMass all year. Hard to project

1178
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:27,760
Speaker 2: how poor this UMass team's going to be but it

1179
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 2: is their first game and maybe the only game. And

1180
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:32,440
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern is a triple option team, very difficult to

1181
00:59:32,480 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 2: cover thirty one with a big game on deck, I

1182
00:59:35,560 --> 00:59:38,919
Speaker 2: might play the minute man man any thoughts, well.

1183
00:59:38,840 --> 00:59:40,880
Speaker 4: I can't believe this wasn't in our marquee section. But

1184
00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 4: look at U Mass.

1185
00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, you're right. It could be their only game.

1186
00:59:43,840 --> 00:59:46,480
Speaker 4: They opted back into the season on September twenty first,

1187
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:49,840
Speaker 4: they have plenty of experience coming back in. But Andrew Brito,

1188
00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 4: their junior quarterback, was not listed as a starting quarterback

1189
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,760
Speaker 4: on the depth chart that was just released. And so

1190
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:56,480
Speaker 4: you know, they got three of their top four wide

1191
00:59:56,520 --> 00:59:59,439
Speaker 4: receivers that are back. They're running back while Ali he's gone.

1192
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:00,360
Speaker 5: He can graduate weighted.

1193
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:02,400
Speaker 4: And the thing that scares me about U Mass and

1194
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 4: backing them is they surrendered fifty rushing tds last year.

1195
01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 4: Fifty rushing tds and Stuck's right army beat U Mass

1196
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 4: by sixty that's the last time they saw the triple Listen.

1197
01:00:11,880 --> 01:00:13,760
Speaker 4: U Mass isn't going down to play this game for money.

1198
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 4: Usually they travel places for money. They were only paid

1199
01:00:16,840 --> 01:00:19,120
Speaker 4: like fifty sixty thousand dollars, which covers like half of

1200
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:21,960
Speaker 4: their travel expenses. You know, this could be their Super Bowl,

1201
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 4: but I don't know what that means to a team

1202
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 4: that gave up fifty rushing tds last year. I'm not

1203
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:27,760
Speaker 4: trying to run out and play Georgia Southern. I tell

1204
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 4: you what I do want to do. I do want

1205
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 4: to have a bet on this game, just to say

1206
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 4: that I had.

1207
01:00:30,880 --> 01:00:31,560
Speaker 5: A bet on this game.

1208
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 4: Maybe I can get like an event T shirt that

1209
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:35,760
Speaker 4: says I bet U Mass in twenty twenty. I don't

1210
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:38,080
Speaker 4: know what that bet is going to be, knowing that

1211
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 4: it's Georgia Southern, knowing that their pace of play is

1212
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 4: seventy they're seventy fifth in the nation and seconds per play.

1213
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 4: I find that the larger that the point spread is,

1214
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 4: the more that gives value to U MASS. That more

1215
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 4: that gives value to a total that is in the sixties.

1216
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 4: But you just don't know what you're gonna get from

1217
01:00:53,680 --> 01:00:55,840
Speaker 4: U MASS. They're gonna run trick plays, They're going to

1218
01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:58,160
Speaker 4: look completely different from last year. I think the only

1219
01:00:58,240 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 4: play is on U MASS. But you gotta let that

1220
01:01:00,840 --> 01:01:03,320
Speaker 4: stem come in because nobody really knows what's going on

1221
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 4: with U Mass, so I probably will have something down.

1222
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,360
Speaker 4: Don't be shocked on the app. If you guys see

1223
01:01:07,400 --> 01:01:09,040
Speaker 4: something Saturday morning, I think I have.

1224
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:12,160
Speaker 2: To blow you maths or whatever. I'll make a donation,

1225
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:14,800
Speaker 2: just the big part of it. I didn't fade army

1226
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 2: against La Monroe, and I held off there, so I'll

1227
01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 2: make up for it here. I have no problem fading

1228
01:01:20,120 --> 01:01:22,280
Speaker 2: a triple option snail like Georgia South with a big

1229
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 2: game on deck and you're getting it to a first team,

1230
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 2: a team playing for the first time. It could end

1231
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 2: a disaster. They could lose fifty eight nothing, but I might.

1232
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:34,680
Speaker 2: I might take a shot here with a couple factors

1233
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 2: working in our favor. All Right, the last game we'll

1234
01:01:38,560 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 2: cover here. We gotta in the rundown before we get

1235
01:01:40,840 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 2: the three. Now, we got to talk UTEP minor Nation.

1236
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:47,440
Speaker 1: We're talking minor Nation out.

1237
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:50,040
Speaker 8: In the West Texan town of l Past.

1238
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 2: Picks up. UTEP is a right now. At that MGM,

1239
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,760
Speaker 2: they are six and a half point on Nderdog over

1240
01:02:00,840 --> 01:02:03,120
Speaker 2: under fifty four and a half. I was hoping we

1241
01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:06,280
Speaker 2: would get seven or more here. I might still take

1242
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:09,480
Speaker 2: on I might mynor Nation thirty thoughts here.

1243
01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:11,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, I want to back UTUB pretty bad. It's funny.

1244
01:02:11,760 --> 01:02:13,560
Speaker 4: I think I just read that the Texas governors came

1245
01:02:13,560 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 4: out and said, don't go to all pass out. They're

1246
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 4: having a huge operak. But I do want to take

1247
01:02:18,520 --> 01:02:21,160
Speaker 4: UTEP here. The problem is I power rated at nine.

1248
01:02:21,200 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 4: I'd like it to get to seven. I'll probably get

1249
01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 4: into this a little bit. I like what UTEP is

1250
01:02:26,040 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 4: doing on defense. Their offense is what the problem is here.

1251
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:32,440
Speaker 4: And you know their passing success rate is just thirty

1252
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:36,400
Speaker 4: fifth and their sixth in passing EPA, which is explosiveness.

1253
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 5: They can't catch.

1254
01:02:37,200 --> 01:02:39,720
Speaker 4: I mean, the passing game is so close to having

1255
01:02:39,720 --> 01:02:42,479
Speaker 4: a breakthrough out of one hundred or so a little

1256
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 4: bit more than one.

1257
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:44,160
Speaker 5: Hundred passing attempts.

1258
01:02:44,480 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 4: UTEP has had eight drops and thirty three poorly thrown balls.

1259
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:51,880
Speaker 4: If we could just get some balls thrown on target,

1260
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,160
Speaker 4: I think this team could have actually have a decent

1261
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:58,800
Speaker 4: passing game and a pass explosiveness sothern misuscovered one of

1262
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:00,760
Speaker 4: their last seven. They haven't been great with the whole

1263
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 4: coaching change going on. The reason for the bump and

1264
01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:06,240
Speaker 4: the points spread is because senior wide receiver Tim Jones,

1265
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 4: the Conference USA blenticoffinward watch list.

1266
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:09,800
Speaker 5: He's day to day.

1267
01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 4: If he's back in, you might see another bump in

1268
01:03:12,080 --> 01:03:14,960
Speaker 4: Southern mists. But the way UTEP is playing defense, I

1269
01:03:15,040 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 4: want this team at seven.

1270
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:18,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it at all. These two teams.

1271
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 2: I might look at the under here. Actually, these two

1272
01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 2: teams are two snails. For what it's worth. Before we

1273
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 2: get to three and out, here's a quick word from

1274
01:03:25,000 --> 01:03:26,240
Speaker 2: our friends at bet MGM.

1275
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:30,640
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1276
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:34,600
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1277
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1280
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1281
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1282
01:03:52,040 --> 01:03:55,160
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01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:58,360
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1285
01:04:01,720 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 9: a reminder, you must be twenty one or older and

1286
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 9: physically located in the Great States of Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey,

1287
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 9: Nevada or West Virginia, please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called

1288
01:04:11,240 --> 01:04:13,200
Speaker 9: one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred in

1289
01:04:13,240 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 9: Colorado and Nevada. One eight hundred gambler in New Jersey

1290
01:04:15,760 --> 01:04:17,880
Speaker 9: and West Virginia. We're one eight hundred and nine with

1291
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 9: it in Indiana. Promo offer not available in Nevada. And

1292
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 9: now back to the show.

1293
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:26,919
Speaker 2: All right, before we get out of here, let's go

1294
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 2: three and out.

1295
01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:32,280
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1296
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 2: All right, let's start with Friday night lights.

1297
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:39,400
Speaker 5: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1298
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 2: Hey, let's go play some football. We have two games.

1299
01:04:43,000 --> 01:04:48,400
Speaker 2: We have SMU at Twulane at bet MGM. Right now,

1300
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:50,880
Speaker 2: SMUs is six and a half points favorite over under

1301
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:52,800
Speaker 2: sixty four and a half. I have two Bethels. Again,

1302
01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:57,120
Speaker 2: I took the under under sixty five and I bought

1303
01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:00,600
Speaker 2: to Lane to seven. SMU's ranked here, by the way,

1304
01:05:00,600 --> 01:05:02,560
Speaker 2: Tuo Lane hasn't beat a ranked team, and I don't

1305
01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:05,480
Speaker 2: know since Vanderbilt, like nineteen eighty four at home. I've

1306
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 2: been a very long time SMU. Obviously, since he on deck,

1307
01:05:09,560 --> 01:05:11,440
Speaker 2: they are gonna be without their starting running back and

1308
01:05:11,480 --> 01:05:14,280
Speaker 2: without their star wide receiver who's out for the year,

1309
01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:18,680
Speaker 2: and Robson, who's just a stud. Tulane I think is

1310
01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:21,600
Speaker 2: gonna be able to run the ball on this SMU team.

1311
01:05:21,920 --> 01:05:25,120
Speaker 2: I think SMU might come out a little distracted for

1312
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:27,240
Speaker 2: this game with such a big game on deck. But

1313
01:05:27,280 --> 01:05:28,760
Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of wind in this game,

1314
01:05:28,920 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 2: which is gonna favor Tulane's rushing attack. It's gonna impact

1315
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 2: the SMU. I think it's gonna be missing two of

1316
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 2: their I'm gonna really miss those two pieces in that

1317
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 2: first game, So I think this is a lower scoring game.

1318
01:05:38,800 --> 01:05:41,480
Speaker 2: It's scary because SMU is fast, but I think the

1319
01:05:41,520 --> 01:05:43,840
Speaker 2: state's under sixty five and two lane keeps it close.

1320
01:05:43,880 --> 01:05:45,920
Speaker 4: Any thoughts, Yeah, I took two Lane plus seven. I

1321
01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:48,360
Speaker 4: would suggest taking them at six. I know that my

1322
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 4: projection is a little bit higher at nine point five.

1323
01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:55,840
Speaker 4: But Reggie Roberson and TJ. McClain, two biggest production pieces

1324
01:05:55,880 --> 01:05:59,160
Speaker 4: that SMU has on offense, they're done for the season,

1325
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 4: you know. I think that's definitely worth the drop in

1326
01:06:01,320 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 4: the point spread to six and a half. I don't

1327
01:06:03,600 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 4: know if it's enough. Two Lane is mauling people in

1328
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:08,400
Speaker 4: the defensive line and without your two greatest weapons. I

1329
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:11,400
Speaker 4: think it's going to be a big problem for Sunny Dyke's.

1330
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:12,880
Speaker 4: So I like TWU lane in this game.

1331
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:14,160
Speaker 2: All right? Yeah, make sure you check out the write

1332
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 2: ups on actionnetwork dot com the action Happen for that game.

1333
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 2: And then also Houston BYU, which is a really good

1334
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:23,720
Speaker 2: Friday night game. Right now. BYU is a five point

1335
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:27,160
Speaker 2: favorite at bet MGM over under sixty two and a half.

1336
01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:29,560
Speaker 2: I love this Houston team. I think this BYU team

1337
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:31,720
Speaker 2: continues to be a little inflated for what they did

1338
01:06:31,760 --> 01:06:35,120
Speaker 2: against really bad competition. I'm on Houston plus five. I

1339
01:06:35,160 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 2: love what I saw. I mean five. They are negative

1340
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:40,480
Speaker 2: five and turnover differential and still blew out two lane.

1341
01:06:41,120 --> 01:06:42,600
Speaker 2: I'm on the home dog here. Do you agree?

1342
01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:45,640
Speaker 5: Yeah? I agree one hundercent. I'm on the Koogs. Of course,

1343
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 5: the Coogs are playing in both games here, but no, Houston.

1344
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 5: We're talking about one of the most stable.

1345
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:53,000
Speaker 4: Teams in BYU versus the most volatile teams in Houston,

1346
01:06:53,160 --> 01:06:55,200
Speaker 4: and Houston can give you twenty points and then they

1347
01:06:55,240 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 4: can put forty nine up against you. I expect something

1348
01:06:57,720 --> 01:06:59,560
Speaker 4: like this. I think the most interesting thing about this

1349
01:06:59,600 --> 01:07:01,240
Speaker 4: is this is the first time the UYU is gonna

1350
01:07:01,240 --> 01:07:03,480
Speaker 4: play and there's gonna be crowd noise. So that is

1351
01:07:03,520 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 4: something that they have not had to deal with. They

1352
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:08,520
Speaker 4: have not had any kind of noise whatsoever to interfere

1353
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:11,720
Speaker 4: with their offense or their defense. I think Houston has

1354
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 4: way too much speed on offense, way too many playmakers,

1355
01:07:15,200 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 4: and they're pretty decent in the defensive trench. All those

1356
01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:19,959
Speaker 4: Jucos that came in to play in the back seven

1357
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:22,440
Speaker 4: for the Houston defense are coming together second game together.

1358
01:07:23,520 --> 01:07:26,000
Speaker 5: I like Houston. I'm probably gonna lay some money line

1359
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:26,439
Speaker 5: on it too.

1360
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:30,200
Speaker 2: Love it in Dana, we trust. All right, let's move

1361
01:07:30,240 --> 01:07:34,160
Speaker 2: on to second down. Here, favorite overdog, that is our

1362
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:35,080
Speaker 2: favorite favorite.

1363
01:07:35,280 --> 01:07:38,200
Speaker 5: It's called the overdogs parlay favorite overdog. I'm gonna go

1364
01:07:38,200 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 5: with Notre Dame.

1365
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:41,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Charlotte. Keep an eye on Victor Tucker's status.

1366
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:44,040
Speaker 2: But Charlotte's offense finally broke out. They were dealing with

1367
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:47,360
Speaker 2: all kinds of COVID stuff. Their star receiver, Victor Tucker's questionable.

1368
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:49,680
Speaker 2: Even without him, I think they win this game. If

1369
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:52,000
Speaker 2: Florida internationally they still have a quarterback. I mean, just

1370
01:07:52,040 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 2: they can't throw the ball. At all. I don't think

1371
01:07:54,840 --> 01:07:58,240
Speaker 2: that they can keep up with Charlotte here. Yeah, I agree,

1372
01:07:59,000 --> 01:08:01,680
Speaker 2: third down, get out of your underdog moneyline.

1373
01:08:01,320 --> 01:08:09,280
Speaker 1: Parlay turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1374
01:08:09,400 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

1375
01:08:12,960 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 2: Texas didn't get there formula last week.

1376
01:08:18,640 --> 01:08:22,720
Speaker 3: College football unbelievable.

1377
01:08:22,600 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 2: Colin, what do you got?

1378
01:08:23,520 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 4: Mississipi State embarrassed me last week. They got a chance

1379
01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:27,640
Speaker 4: to embarrass me again this week. I'm gonna go with

1380
01:08:27,720 --> 01:08:30,360
Speaker 4: cow Bell here. There's too much mismatch against this Texas

1381
01:08:30,360 --> 01:08:33,160
Speaker 4: A and M defense. I think star Vegas is going

1382
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:36,880
Speaker 4: to be loud and probably breaking. I think the SEC said,

1383
01:08:36,920 --> 01:08:39,920
Speaker 4: if you break your attendance the limits that we've set

1384
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 4: on you, you will owe us one hundred thousand dollars,

1385
01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:43,600
Speaker 4: and I think Mississi State's probably going to break that

1386
01:08:43,640 --> 01:08:44,280
Speaker 4: rule this week.

1387
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:47,960
Speaker 2: Wow, back to back the leach the hunderdog moneylne parlay.

1388
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:51,799
Speaker 8: We failed to make our coaching points and our points

1389
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:54,519
Speaker 8: more compelling than their fat little girlfriends. Now, their fat

1390
01:08:54,520 --> 01:08:58,040
Speaker 8: little girlfriends have some obvious advantages. For one thing, they're

1391
01:08:58,080 --> 01:08:59,800
Speaker 8: telling them what they want to hear, which is how

1392
01:08:59,800 --> 01:09:03,559
Speaker 8: great you are and how easy it's going to be.

1393
01:09:04,040 --> 01:09:10,439
Speaker 2: I'm going with utsa meat against Army. I'm gonna have

1394
01:09:10,439 --> 01:09:12,120
Speaker 2: a right up for this game. They're catching seven and

1395
01:09:12,160 --> 01:09:15,280
Speaker 2: a half at home. They saw Army last year was

1396
01:09:15,280 --> 01:09:17,519
Speaker 2: the first time in school history they faced the triple

1397
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:19,840
Speaker 2: option team, so that will pay off. They bring it

1398
01:09:19,840 --> 01:09:21,519
Speaker 2: back eight of their top ten tacklers. They get their

1399
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:25,160
Speaker 2: star nose tackle back this week, which will really help.

1400
01:09:25,400 --> 01:09:28,320
Speaker 2: That defensive line is playing really well. They played really

1401
01:09:28,360 --> 01:09:32,840
Speaker 2: well against BYU and their offense. Look, they have a

1402
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:35,840
Speaker 2: freshman in All American from last year in McCormick, who's

1403
01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:37,800
Speaker 2: a really good running back. They have great weapons on

1404
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:40,719
Speaker 2: the outside. They had to actually receiver Dingle from UMass

1405
01:09:40,920 --> 01:09:43,880
Speaker 2: and Lowel Narcis came in last week and he played

1406
01:09:44,040 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 2: spectacular against BYU. I think it was the highest rated

1407
01:09:47,080 --> 01:09:51,559
Speaker 2: quarterback last week at seventeen of twenty. Just unbelievable. Kid

1408
01:09:51,560 --> 01:09:53,559
Speaker 2: has all the talent in the world. Former four star

1409
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:57,400
Speaker 2: who transferred out of LSU. He tours ACL Junior High School,

1410
01:09:57,400 --> 01:09:59,640
Speaker 2: senior year of high school, and then went to a

1411
01:09:59,720 --> 01:10:01,679
Speaker 2: still We got to LSU. He had offers from Bama

1412
01:10:01,800 --> 01:10:04,160
Speaker 2: LSU every Power Fight program. He competed with some guy

1413
01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:07,559
Speaker 2: named Joe Burrow another guy named Justin McMillan who ended

1414
01:10:07,600 --> 01:10:10,719
Speaker 2: up transferring and starting at Tulane and Miles Brennan. While

1415
01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:14,880
Speaker 2: he lost that went to Juco, was awful, lost his

1416
01:10:14,920 --> 01:10:17,960
Speaker 2: starting job to a walk on hit rock bottom, and

1417
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:20,719
Speaker 2: then he went to UTSA. He hasn't been great and

1418
01:10:21,680 --> 01:10:25,040
Speaker 2: until this year, and we're finally starting to see that potential.

1419
01:10:25,080 --> 01:10:27,639
Speaker 2: I think they start him. Utsa has played four different

1420
01:10:27,720 --> 01:10:30,720
Speaker 2: quarterbacks this year. They're a real football team now. I

1421
01:10:30,720 --> 01:10:32,559
Speaker 2: think they're gonna be able to hit enough plays on

1422
01:10:32,600 --> 01:10:36,760
Speaker 2: the outside, explosive passing plays. If they start northseats, which

1423
01:10:36,760 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 2: I think they do against Army, and they can get

1424
01:10:39,160 --> 01:10:41,679
Speaker 2: enough stops with that defensive line, it will really benefit

1425
01:10:41,760 --> 01:10:43,599
Speaker 2: that they saw Army last year. Only thing that worries

1426
01:10:43,600 --> 01:10:44,960
Speaker 2: me is they're coming off games against you A B

1427
01:10:45,040 --> 01:10:48,200
Speaker 2: and BYU, two physical games and now another physical game

1428
01:10:48,200 --> 01:10:50,800
Speaker 2: against Army. But I think UTSA is gonna a really

1429
01:10:50,840 --> 01:10:53,880
Speaker 2: good shot to win this game. Meep, meep. I'll be

1430
01:10:53,960 --> 01:10:55,240
Speaker 2: right for that game to make sure you check it

1431
01:10:55,240 --> 01:10:59,080
Speaker 2: out as well. All right, thanks for listening, Colin, Thanks

1432
01:10:59,120 --> 01:11:02,280
Speaker 2: for joining me as always really excited for this weekend

1433
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:05,400
Speaker 2: and then excited Daddy. Then more teams in the mix soon.

1434
01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:08,559
Speaker 2: Enjoy that Georgia Albabbagan. Don't forget about the boy smails. Also,

1435
01:11:08,600 --> 01:11:12,080
Speaker 2: don't forget to rate, review, Subscribe or the Action Network podcast.

1436
01:11:12,640 --> 01:11:14,880
Speaker 2: Tell a Friend, Tell an Enemy, You know the deal.

1437
01:11:15,439 --> 01:11:18,800
Speaker 2: Appreciate your support, good luck this weekend, starting off with

1438
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:22,160
Speaker 2: Friday Night Lights and through NFL Sunday conu I will

1439
01:11:22,200 --> 01:11:25,600
Speaker 2: be back on Monday to recap everything that happen in

1440
01:11:25,640 --> 01:11:30,080
Speaker 2: both the NFL and college football, in addition to previewing

1441
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:34,080
Speaker 2: too Monday night football games. What a stretch of football.

1442
01:11:34,120 --> 01:11:37,400
Speaker 2: We have two Friday night games, full Saturday, full Sunday,

1443
01:11:37,560 --> 01:11:40,599
Speaker 2: two Monday night games. Thanks for listening. As always, we'll

1444
01:11:40,640 --> 01:12:00,679
Speaker 2: catch you all at of cheers, soish talking