1 00:00:02,759 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: easterne on, Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,080 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 2: We mentioned IPOs, We mentioned SpaceX. George Ferguson is one 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 2: of many of our bi analysts tests with trying to 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 2: get some fundamentals around this company, because it's kind of 9 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 2: a company that covers all these different industries. George's, of course, 10 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:43,440 Speaker 2: our senior industry analysts covering aerospace and defense. George, you 11 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 2: have this tad task of putting fundamentals to SpaceX when 12 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 2: all anyone can remember is the total addressable market being 13 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: was at number twenty nine trillion. 14 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 3: Twenty eight trillion. 15 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: North of twenty eight trillion doesn't matter at this point, George, 16 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 2: can you give us some sense of what profits will 17 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: look like for SpaceX once it is sustainably profitable? 18 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 4: Yeah? 19 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 5: So, so look, I mean I should say start by 20 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 5: saying SpaceX is a company that's in a lot of flux, right, 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 5: it's essentially building out. I think the bigger portion of 22 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 5: stories it's building out an AI business. I'm not sure 23 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 5: we totally understand what the AI business looks like for anybody. 24 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 5: And when they're done, they're going to i think, put 25 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 5: these data centers in space. 26 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 6: That's where they're trying to go. 27 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 5: So you know, we're not only a business that's I 28 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 5: think nobody fully understands what it's going to look like. 29 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,720 Speaker 5: When it's done, they're going to go one step further 30 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 5: and try to make it extraterrestrial. 31 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 6: So we've put together a model though in the Bloomberg. 32 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 5: Service you can find it under BI space ae rog 33 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 5: an interactive model, or you can load the SpaceX ticker 34 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 5: and type in MODL MODL for your model. We essentially 35 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 5: see a business business that we think could go from 36 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 5: nineteen billion dollars in revenue in twenty twenty five to 37 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 5: one hundred and sixty ish billion revenue in twenty thirty, 38 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,240 Speaker 5: so a big step. A lot of that is all 39 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 5: about AI, and then we're you know, we kind of 40 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 5: see an operating income. Now twenty twenty five they reported 41 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 5: negative two and a half billion. We think that could 42 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 5: swing to a positive almost twenty one billion by twenty thirty. 43 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 5: The majority of that continues to be connectivity. That's their 44 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 5: satellite business. You know, it's going to be broadband from satellite, 45 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 5: some direct to sell. That could be like a fourteen 46 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:39,360 Speaker 5: to fifteen billion dollar operating income business by twenty thirty. 47 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 5: But AI is at that point sort of in full swing, 48 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 5: you know, building profitability, and we could see maybe six 49 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 5: and a half billion dollar contribution from AI in twenty 50 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 5: thirty to that operating profit number. 51 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 6: So those are the big moving parts. 52 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,239 Speaker 5: That space launch business is kind of a barely profitable, barelyon. 53 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 6: Negative kind of business. It's not a not a big business. 54 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 5: But it also doesn't reflect all of its revenues and 55 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 5: profits because any work done for internal SpaceX companies doesn't 56 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 5: flow through the revenue statement in the space business and 57 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 5: doesn't have a recorded expense because of the way they're 58 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 5: going to do the accounting on that. 59 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,360 Speaker 7: So, all right, how are they going to how are 60 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 7: they going to finance all this stuff? 61 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,959 Speaker 5: George, Yeah, yeah, So I mean that's of course the 62 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 5: million dollar or maybe it's the billion dollar question. So 63 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 5: we've wired in about one hundred billion dollars of debt 64 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 5: out to twenty thirty that in a brazing their initial 65 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 5: offering here. They refinanced a bridge loan and it was 66 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 5: twenty billion dollar bridge loan. 67 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 6: They just did it in the market last weeks or two. 68 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 5: And they came in. They got twenty five billions. That 69 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 5: uped a bit, and they had a rate that was 70 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 5: close to six. So we've kind of wired in a 71 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 5: six percent rate for another one hundred billion dollars worth 72 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 5: of debt. But I mean that's one of the bigger 73 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,800 Speaker 5: challenges here right If the company isn't producing a lot 74 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 5: of EBITDA to support that debt and keep investment grade ratings, 75 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 5: you could have a bit of a breakdown in your 76 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 5: ability to finance through debt into twenty thirty. I would 77 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 5: also note that in the S one the authorization for 78 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 5: shares were quite large compared to the shares that were 79 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 5: actually issued, and so you know, there's room to issue 80 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 5: more A shares which only have one voting stake. Elon 81 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 5: Musk's B shares, he has a lot of those those 82 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 5: have ten votes, so does a room to. 83 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 6: Do a lot more A shares. 84 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:37,919 Speaker 5: And they had C shares in that mix as well, 85 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 5: So I think you could see some additional equity issuance 86 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 5: to continue to fund build out a data centers, you know, 87 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 5: designing starship and you know other interplanetary. 88 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 6: You know, transportation devices things like that, and. 89 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 2: Tesla eventually becomes part of SpaceX as well. 90 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,600 Speaker 5: You know, that's the rumor we can keep hearing. You know, 91 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 5: I don't know why they wouldn't have rolled it in initially. 92 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 5: To be honest with you, it feels to me like 93 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 5: these three companies do mesh to a degree right. 94 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 6: Space really gets. 95 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:16,039 Speaker 5: You your lift you need for that connectivity business. And 96 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 5: if you're really moving data centers of space, which I 97 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 5: mean everybody complains about putting them in their neighborhood nowadays 98 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 5: because of you know, energy draws and such, I could 99 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 5: see that being maybe a natural fit if you can 100 00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 5: find a way for that tech to work. 101 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 6: I don't know how Tesla fits in there. 102 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 5: I mean when we you know, when we saw the 103 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,600 Speaker 5: the s one for SpaceX, they had you know, they 104 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 5: had the Tesla trucks ort to dragging or driving around spaceports. 105 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 5: I don't know, maybe they're going to drag rockets out 106 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 5: to the launch with it or something, but I feel 107 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 5: like it doesn't quite fit. 108 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up. 109 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: After this, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch 110 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: us live weekdays ten am. He's done on Apple, Cocklay 111 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 112 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 113 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 114 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 2: Let's turn now to Washington and check in with our 115 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 2: senior news editor, tech editor, I should say, Michael Shepherd. 116 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 2: He does cover tech and the intersection of policy as well, 117 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 2: which is where I want to start, Michael, because we 118 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 2: now have open Ai beginning discussions about giving the US 119 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 2: government a stake in the company. The proposal, at least 120 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 2: initially here from Sam Altman, the CEO, is a five 121 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:36,840 Speaker 2: percent stake. This is this got my attention. Where did 122 00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 2: this come from? How did this begin? 123 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 8: Well, this got a lot of people's attention, Scarlett. And 124 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 8: this idea is not necessarily a new one. The real 125 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 8: headline in the report from the Financial Times from overnight 126 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 8: was the size of the steak, the five percent. We've 127 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 8: previously reported and other outlets have too that you know, 128 00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 8: the AI companies, especially open Ai, have floated this idea 129 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 8: of giving the government a piece of their business, giving 130 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 8: them shares. To see what would be a public benefit 131 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 8: fund to redistribute some of the gains from the AI 132 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 8: boom and maybe address some of the concerns that all 133 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 8: of this newfound wealth and economic dislocation brought by the 134 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 8: technology that that could somehow be softened they'll blow from 135 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:30,679 Speaker 8: the AI roller could be minimized by sharing the gains 136 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 8: a little bit through this vehicle, and the administration has 137 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 8: talked about this a little bit. President Donald Trump embraced 138 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 8: the idea when asked by our own Amory hor Dern 139 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 8: last month on Air Force One, but the President offered 140 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 8: no specifics beyond just saying that he had been in 141 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 8: talks with some industry officials, and it's unclear whether negotiations 142 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 8: really active or advancing between the government and the company. 143 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 8: It seems more right now that this is something the 144 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 8: company is really trying to work out ahead of its 145 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 8: IBO to come up with what the size of a 146 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,960 Speaker 8: steak could look like. What they're also envisioning is having 147 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 8: other AI labs, such as Anthropic or Google's Deep Mind 148 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 8: also offer stakes to the government. Now, whether those companies 149 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 8: would share the same enthusiasm that Sam Altman has for 150 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 8: it is unclear. 151 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 7: Giving away a five percent steak or selling a five 152 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 7: percent stake. 153 00:08:29,560 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 4: Well, Paul, that is. 154 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 8: A great question because we can think back to almost 155 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 8: a year ago when the US used the Chips Act 156 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 8: money that it had for set aside for Intel to 157 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 8: actually purchase a stake in the chip maker. This would 158 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:49,559 Speaker 8: be different. The companies would actually give the steak as 159 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 8: seed money for this public benefit fund. Bernie Sanders, the 160 00:08:54,520 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 8: Vermont Independent, has proposed a similar idea. He has called 161 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 8: for actually creating this kind of a public benefit fund 162 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 8: to be seeded with a fifty percent tax on the 163 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 8: stock of these companies one time of these companies a 164 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 8: one time tax. All those proceeds would go into this 165 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 8: fund to then be redistributed with the American public. Republicans 166 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 8: have rejected the idea, and even President Donald Trump, when 167 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 8: asked specifically about the Sanders proposal, simply said I had 168 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 8: the idea first. And the size of what Bernie Sanders 169 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 8: is asking for is far different from what we're seeing, 170 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 8: at least through the Financial Times report of a five 171 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 8: percent stake. 172 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 2: All right, So we'll continue to watch that space to 173 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 2: see how things develop there. The other story we wanted 174 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 2: to touch on with you, Michael, has to do with 175 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 2: Apple looking to buy memory chips from China, which is 176 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 2: interesting given that the companies being proposed here are on 177 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 2: a blacklist, a Pentagon blacklist of Chinese entities that are 178 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 2: believed to have ties to China's military. But Apple kind 179 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 2: of always feels like it's in its own category. 180 00:10:04,240 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 8: Well it does, and again this is something else that's 181 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 8: another bit of fallout from the AI boom. There is 182 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 8: this unprecedented demand for memory to meet the needs of 183 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 8: artificial intelligence, and that is putting the squeeze on makers 184 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 8: of consumer electronics devices. Apple of course most prominently, but 185 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 8: also Microsoft and those companies have had to raise prices 186 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 8: across their product lines because of the increased expense for 187 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 8: the memory components that they put into the products that 188 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 8: they make. Now, what Apple is hoping to do is 189 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 8: add to its supply lines when it comes to memory. 190 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,959 Speaker 8: And right now they turn to Samsung Electronics and Sknix 191 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 8: and Micron Technology for their memory needs. But their memory 192 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 8: needs right now are insatiable, and those memory providers have 193 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 8: been really trying to reorient some of their production lines 194 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 8: to meet the AI demand. So what Apple is proposing 195 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 8: to do is turn to CXMT and YMTC, two Chinese 196 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 8: chip makers that specialize in memory, but that are also 197 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 8: on a Pentagon blacklist because the US believes they support 198 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 8: China's military, and that really creates a political problem here 199 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 8: for Apple. The company doesn't need permission from the government 200 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 8: per se, say an export license or import license to 201 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 8: use this technology. Our reporting shows that Apple plans to 202 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 8: use the memory will buy from these two Chinese makers 203 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 8: to go into products to be sold into China. So 204 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 8: you would think, well, maybe that's not such a big deal, 205 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 8: But the question really is how to go down here 206 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 8: in Washington, and many of the national security hawks, including 207 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,760 Speaker 8: the head of the House Foreign Relations Committee yesterday, responded 208 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 8: to our reports saying that this, from his view, would 209 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 8: be a no go. 210 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:54,839 Speaker 7: Well, that's why Tim Cook has remained at the company 211 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 7: in large part to deal with some. 212 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 4: Of these issues with governments. 213 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 7: And where's President Trump on this, because presumably if Tim 214 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,440 Speaker 7: Cook can get President Trump to sign off, then all 215 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 7: is good. 216 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 8: Well, Tim Cook has had that longstanding relationship with the President, 217 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 8: who refers to him jokingly and even lovingly as Tim Apple. 218 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 8: And this relationship dates all the way back to the 219 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 8: president's first term in office. And the question is, though, 220 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 8: will there be a counter lobbying campaign by Micron, which 221 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 8: really would not want to see Chinese chip makers perhaps 222 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 8: taking some of their potential business away, and earlier this 223 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 8: week it did not go on notice that Micron made 224 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 8: a two hundred and fifty million dollars pledge to the 225 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,560 Speaker 8: Trump Accounts initiative, the one that also is backed by 226 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 8: Dell Computers founder Michael Dell. So we're seeing a lot 227 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 8: of lobbying cross currents on this, Paul. It'll be interesting 228 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 8: to see who gets to Trump and what ultimately he 229 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 8: will have to say when it comes to giving some 230 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 8: political cover to Apple and other device makers that might 231 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:07,679 Speaker 8: want this Chinese memory. 232 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 233 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 234 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,439 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 235 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 236 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 237 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,319 Speaker 2: And the big jobs report that we got this morning, 238 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 2: by and large, it was weaker than expected. There's still 239 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 2: job growth, but definitely a slowdown after the blistering pace 240 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 2: for the previous three reports. Perhaps the job market is 241 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 2: no longer overheating that might be one interpretation. Let's go 242 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 2: down to Ira, Jersey for the bond market's interpretation. He 243 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 2: is our chief US interest rate strategist and joins us 244 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:55,840 Speaker 2: right now from Princeton, Ira. In the rates market, we 245 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 2: see the two year yield coming in down four bit 246 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,599 Speaker 2: basis y four point one three percent, definitely on the 247 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 2: short end of the curve, whereas at the long end 248 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 2: it's pretty much unchanged. What is being priced out following 249 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 2: this June jobs print. 250 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 9: Yeah, so basically a very early rate hike, so interest 251 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 9: rate increases being priced out here at least a little bit. 252 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 4: It was more this morning. 253 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 9: I think that you know, now that you know, traders 254 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 9: are getting ready to go away for the long weekend. 255 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 4: They're trying to square positions. 256 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 9: So people who got pretty long or were long, you know, 257 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 9: taking some profits here and you know, kind of squaring 258 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 9: things up as we get into the to the close. 259 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 9: You know, I think that the jobs report was a 260 00:14:38,680 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 9: little bit weaker, maybe than some people are even suggesting. 261 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 9: If you look at the revisions to the prior months, 262 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 9: this would actually be a negative number. So yeah, you 263 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 9: know where it's not particularly good. And importantly, you know, 264 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 9: some people I know said Oh, look, the unemployment rate 265 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 9: actually fell a tenth, but it fell for the wrong reasons, right. 266 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 9: It fell because more people left the market, left the 267 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 9: job market. 268 00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 4: And stopped looking for jobs. 269 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 9: So you wind up in a situation where the participation 270 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 9: rate fell, which means that you have less people participating 271 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 9: in the economy. And I think that that's being a 272 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 9: little bit overlooked some by some folks. 273 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 7: Iron what do we learn from Fitchairman Warsh yesterday from 274 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 7: his comments in Portugal at that conference. 275 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 9: So first and foremost, Paul, he really does not want 276 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 9: to give any forward guidance, right. He mentioned that a 277 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 9: whole bunch of times to our former colleague Sarah Ezon. 278 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 9: And you know the I think, I think Kevin Moorsh 279 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 9: is trying to go back to the pre Ben Bernanky 280 00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 9: days where you know, Alan Greenspan spoke for the entire committee. 281 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:48,160 Speaker 9: He was usually noncommittal, and the few times that he 282 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,360 Speaker 9: was he was very deliberate. So like when he said 283 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,240 Speaker 9: we're going to raise rates at a measured pace, for example, 284 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,800 Speaker 9: back in the early two thousands, that was a very 285 00:15:55,800 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 9: greenspan ism and about as forward guidancey as he ever got. 286 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 4: And I think Kevin Worrish would like to do that. 287 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 9: The thing, Paul that I have a problem with Kevin 288 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 9: Worsh's line of thinking is what he had said during 289 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 9: the press conference a few weeks ago that he wants 290 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 9: the market to lead the Fed. That's not how it works, right. 291 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 9: The market tries to anticipate what the Fed is going 292 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 9: to do. So we might wind up in a situation 293 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 9: where maybe maybe the Fed surprises the market more frequently 294 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 9: than they have in the recent past, since communication policy 295 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 9: always you know, adjusted rate expectations in real time. 296 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,920 Speaker 2: Okay, So clearly the job report today is moving the 297 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 2: rates market. Not so long ago, oil was kind of 298 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 2: the thing that moved the rates market. We see oil 299 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 2: down for a third straight day. Is crude at all 300 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 2: dictating the rates market? Or has that now faded as 301 00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 2: the Iran war turns into you know, just never ending talks. 302 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 9: So there's there's actually a point where the where when 303 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:59,920 Speaker 9: you look at inflation expectations, and that's the transmission mechanism 304 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 9: oil into the rates market, and you look at inflation 305 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 9: break evens, So how how the market is anticipating future 306 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 9: headline inflation to be that Basically when you get under 307 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 9: seventy five dollars, a barrel kind of goes away and becomes. 308 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,560 Speaker 4: Much more exogenous on a forward basis. 309 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:19,280 Speaker 9: So I think it had really done a lot of 310 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 9: the work back in the last couple of weeks. But certainly, 311 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:27,480 Speaker 9: certainly since since the twentieth or so of June, you know, 312 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 9: inflation break evens basically have been range bound since then, 313 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 9: after having come down quite substantially following the following the 314 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 9: you know, if you want to call it the ceasefire 315 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 9: that you know, who knows if it's really holding or not. 316 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 9: But certainly oil coming down and being in this seventy 317 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 9: five dollars range or so is not going to be 318 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 9: anything that the rates market's going to care about. So 319 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 9: then we turn a little bit more to fundamentals and 320 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 9: we look at things like core inflation, which you know, 321 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 9: when we get that report later this month, will be 322 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 9: the next real volatility driver for the rates market. 323 00:17:58,280 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 6: I think. 324 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 3: Us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 325 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:10,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 326 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,600 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android 327 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,920 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 328 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts or watch US Live on YouTube. 329 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 7: News is developing the world of global trade, and that 330 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 7: is the US announced that it will not renew its 331 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 7: trade deal with Canada in Mexico, instead conducting annual reviews 332 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 7: of the pact, which risk adding uncertainty for companies producing 333 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 7: goods across North America. 334 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 4: Get the latest reporting on this. 335 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 7: Returned to Brendan Murray, global Trade editor for Bloomberg News. Brendan, 336 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 7: your world, the world of global trade has had, you know, 337 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,040 Speaker 7: twenty four hours that kind of digest this news here. 338 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,919 Speaker 7: What's some of the fallout we're seeing from maybe some 339 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:54,199 Speaker 7: of our trading partners, like Canada, like Mexico. How are 340 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 7: things going to change? 341 00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,400 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think the main response, if we could sum 342 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 10: it up, was that they just that they're just resigned 343 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 10: to the fact that this is how they're gonna deal 344 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 10: with the with the Trump administration as long as he 345 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 10: is in office. And so, uh, we didn't see a 346 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 10: huge reaction in in either currency. Uh. It's and companies 347 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 10: that you know that that do business across the three countries, 348 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 10: particularly automakers, you know, their shares didn't really move all 349 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 10: that much. I think this is this is really the 350 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,640 Speaker 10: beginning of of the story rather than the than the 351 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 10: than the end of it. And and the Trump administration 352 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 10: wants to have trade negotiations with Mexico because there are 353 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 10: specific issues to to the to that relationship that Washington 354 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,399 Speaker 10: wants to address. And then they and then they have 355 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 10: to they have to sort out there. There's some of 356 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 10: the disagreements with Canada as well, and and and there's 357 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 10: not a whole lot of love loss between Ottawa and 358 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 10: Washington these days. The uh, the sides aren't really talking 359 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 10: about trade at the moment, and so it's, uh, those 360 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,159 Speaker 10: are those are going to be sort of tougher to 361 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 10: get going. And we'll see how We'll see how it 362 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:05,679 Speaker 10: shakes out. But ultimately, you know, the USMCA, it was 363 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 10: going to expire in twenty thirty six, and that's the 364 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,920 Speaker 10: that's the course it's on unless they can get it 365 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,720 Speaker 10: into into a shape where everybody thinks it's worth renewing 366 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 10: for another sixteen years. 367 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 2: Okay, So this creates uncertainty for automakers, I heard you 368 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 2: mentioned them, certainly farmers as well as energy companies. What 369 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 2: are the specific sticking points? What is something that the US, 370 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 2: the Trump administration wants that Canada and Mexico are not 371 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 2: willing to give. 372 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:37,640 Speaker 10: For instance, well, one of the issues with Mexico is 373 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 10: the are what they call rules of origin. This is 374 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 10: basically sort of the nationality of a product. Is it 375 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 10: made in Mexico, is it made in the US and 376 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 10: the U and the Trump administration wants to sort of 377 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 10: tighten up these rules of origin so that so that 378 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 10: products are you know, have more American content in them 379 00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 10: than they would you know, their country like Mexico, and 380 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,280 Speaker 10: so uh, there are already these rules that exist, but 381 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 10: the but the Trump administration wants to wants to to 382 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 10: tighten those up to have more things made in the 383 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 10: United States. 384 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 6: UH. 385 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 10: This long running issue that the US has with with 386 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 10: the Canadian dairy industry and then the protections that the 387 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 10: Canadian government has for its dairy UH producers. That's a 388 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 10: that's a that's been a long running sticking point, and 389 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 10: the US UH trade officials that we've spoken to have said, 390 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 10: that's that's you know, an another another issue they want 391 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 10: to deal with it. And also with Canada. You know, 392 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 10: Canada produces UH produces vehicles. American automakers have plants in Canada, 393 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 10: and the President Trump wants those UH cars and trucks 394 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 10: to be made in the US. 395 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 7: Brendan is the expectation that if Trump, if President Trump 396 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 7: doesn't like a particular economic action from either Canada or Mexico, 397 00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 7: that the response would simply be tariffs. 398 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,159 Speaker 6: Yeah. 399 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 10: So that's the other unknown that we're going to get 400 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 10: here in the in the short term, in the next 401 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 10: few weeks, is the the ten percent tariff that the 402 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 10: President put on most major US trading partners after he 403 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 10: lost the Supreme Court case. That ten percent tariff expires 404 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 10: on July twenty fourth, and so we're going to see 405 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 10: the administration come out with a sort of a rolling 406 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 10: group of different kinds of tariffs, using different authorities to 407 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 10: put to put on instead of those the ten percent 408 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 10: tariffs that are that are you know, applying now USMCA 409 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 10: goods that move across the US Canadian Mexican borders. USMCA 410 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 10: compliant goods are not going to be subject to that. 411 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 10: But these other tariffs that are going to replace it. 412 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 10: There are concerns these sort of sectoral tariffs are going 413 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:57,199 Speaker 10: to that there are concerns that if USMC a kind 414 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 10: of fades away or starts to be eroded, in the 415 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 10: in and the rules that are currently in place that 416 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 10: some some some more UH merchandise that moves across UH 417 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 10: in North America will face some of those tariffs. That's 418 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,000 Speaker 10: the fear from Mexico and Canada. 419 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 2: Anyway, very quickly, Brendon, I know you mentioned the automaker's 420 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 2: stocks for instance, didn't move a whole lot on this announcement. 421 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 2: But I wonder what the industry is saying right now 422 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 2: in terms of urging governments to to move forward or 423 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 2: how they move forward. 424 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think generally, you know, the automakers don't really 425 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 10: want to you know, stick their necks UH out and 426 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,200 Speaker 10: and say much and and complain about things. You know, 427 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:43,080 Speaker 10: there are there are tariffs on on imports of steel 428 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,399 Speaker 10: and aluminum that are hitting the auto US automakers UH 429 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 10: and making US cars more expensive. But for the generally 430 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,919 Speaker 10: businesses say, look, we need clarity, we need some stability. 431 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 10: We need to know what our costs are going to 432 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:57,959 Speaker 10: be over the next you know, a couple of decades, 433 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,119 Speaker 10: if we're gonna if we're gonna have supply chain that 434 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 10: benefit from what Canada, Mexico in the US has to offer. 435 00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast available on Apple, Spotify, 436 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:14,120 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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