WEBVTT - Geopolitics, the US Election, and Investing Amid Fed Easing 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:07.400 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:15.600 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:19.000 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:23.159 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.320 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:34.360 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.040 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:46.960 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. If you 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:52.000 are a certain persuasion, you remember where you were when 0:00:52.040 --> 0:00:54.560 you close the book on the Winds of War by 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:58.040 Herman wilt Bout, and you said, when's he gonna write 0:00:58.080 --> 0:00:59.279 the next one war? 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:02.280 And remember and you waited two years. 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.920 Young James Stravita's had this feeling as I did, like 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:11.800 you waited. Except admiralstra Vetus, of course, lived the American military, 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.319 the United States Navy of Pug Henry as well. The 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:20.520 book is The Restless Wave. It is a novel, a 0:01:20.600 --> 0:01:22.279 novel idea, a novel from. 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:27.119 Jem four Desk and I'm ready to go to chapter five, and. 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:31.000 It's just wonderful about a young lad before nineteen forty one, 0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:35.399 across the arc of World War Two. What's the why, Admiralstravitas, 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:37.840 Why did you need to write The Restless Wave? 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.520 Tom? I'll give you three reasons, I'll do them fast. 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:45.440 One is Winston Churchill said, the further you want to 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.880 look into the future, the more you have to look 0:01:48.920 --> 0:01:53.240 into the past, meaning the lessons of World War Two 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:56.200 are still with us, great power of war in the Pacific, 0:01:56.640 --> 0:02:00.280 the rise of technologies. And then third and five, and 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:05.360 most importantly you mentioned it, Tom, character we think of 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:09.840 Captain pug Henry from the Winds of War. Here we 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:13.720 have a young naval officer. He's flawed, he makes mistakes, 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:18.679 he's in a love triangle, there's betrayal, the early days 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:23.560 of the Greatest Generation. So any reasons write a sweeping 0:02:23.720 --> 0:02:25.440 novel about the Second World War. 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.560 I'm going to give this away Pulse four chapters into 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.000 the book. Page three ten, the exo took a breath. 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.760 Admiral Wright failed us, Sir. He was slow and hesitant. 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:39.880 He doesn't understand the new technology. His battle plan looked 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:44.360 like Dewey at Manila in the Spanish American War, admiralstavinus, 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.640 are we living that today with new drone technology and 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:52.240 all is A navy have to adapt and adjust. 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:52.640 One hundred percent. 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:57.280 Tom, And look at Ukraine where the Russian Black Sea 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:01.280 Fleet has been sunk by the Ukrainians. 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:03.560 Except the Ukrainians don't even have a navy. 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:10.040 They're using drones, cruise missiles, exquisite intelligence, surface forces operating 0:03:10.560 --> 0:03:14.520 using artificial intelligence. Our navy better learn those lessons and 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:18.400 get ready. And that's something that we experienced at the 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:20.880 start of World War two as well. 0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:23.120 Admiral Tom and I have a million questions on many 0:03:23.120 --> 0:03:25.680 different hotspots around the world. Let's start with the Middle 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:28.400 East here. Can you give us your latest thinking on 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:31.040 how things are developing there and how you kind of 0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.760 foresee I guess the next several weeks and months. 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:37.120 Clearly the next big muscle movement is going to be 0:03:37.120 --> 0:03:43.120 an attack bite Israel in retaliation appropriately for two hundred 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:47.280 ballistic missiles that came raining down on Israel five six 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.480 days ago. So what will that attack look like? I 0:03:50.480 --> 0:03:54.080 think that's the key question for investors. I think it's 0:03:54.120 --> 0:03:58.720 going to be big, but not shock and awe level 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:03.279 kind of strikes. I'll probably go against the military industrial 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:10.640 complex in Iran, probably not against the nuclear power complex, 0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:15.840 and probably not against energy. So that should be something 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:20.679 that investors and tolerate as we look at rising risk 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:25.200 in the region. Bottom line, I think there's about a 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:29.880 one in four chance of a broader war in the 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:33.559 Middle East that drags the US in. That's uncomfortably high, 0:04:33.880 --> 0:04:37.640 But I've still bet against a big, sweeping war in 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:38.240 the Middle East. 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:40.600 Let's hope not admiral to. 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:45.560 What extent is the US policy being represented by the 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:49.320 Israelis here? It seems like the relationship between Biden and 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:51.280 Netanya who is not maybe as strong as we would 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:54.800 have hoped here. And we have US assets, men and 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:57.599 women in the region there So where are we in 0:04:57.680 --> 0:04:59.320 terms of dealing with the Israelis? 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:05.120 You are correct, we have fifty thousand troops in and 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:07.960 around the Middle East, many of them at sea on 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:12.240 navy worships, by the way, but many asure as well. 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:17.720 So it's critical that we maintain the strongest relationship with Israel, 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:22.400 which is our best partner in the region. Unfortunately, at 0:05:22.440 --> 0:05:26.080 a personal level, it's pretty clear that Prime Minister net 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:31.200 Yahoo and President Biden have not good relations. 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:33.040 And here's our hope. 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:38.000 The next tier down, that's General Lloyd Austin working with 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:42.400 his counterpart Israeli Minister of Defense Yuav Gallant. That's a 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:46.240 pretty good relationship. But a storm cloud to watch, no 0:05:46.360 --> 0:05:50.200 pun intended, terrible hurricane coming, But a storm cloud to 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:54.640 watch is that Yuav Gallant, Minister of Defense, just canceled 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:56.120 the meeting in the Pentagon. 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:59.240 So relations are not good at the moment. 0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:02.200 Is James Tvetus late in your book? 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:04.800 Arley Burke shows up, No, folks, it's not the name 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:09.000 of a boat, it's an actual person. And Arley Burke 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:12.039 shows up to drive the story forward. And he says 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.719 at one point, with some heat in his voice, the 0:06:14.800 --> 0:06:18.160 difference in an officer good or bad is about ten seconds. 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:22.080 There's an officer from the streets of Boston named John Kelly, 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:25.600 who is the longest chief of staff the Marines served 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:28.400 Donald Trump. And he's come out. He's made real clear 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:32.839 he's not a fan of the operations of the former president. 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:38.040 If we have elected President Trump, I mean in twenty sixteen, 0:06:38.120 --> 0:06:41.400 this was all new, will he be able as commander 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:45.800 in chief to form a military apparatus after what we 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:47.679 hear from the likes of John Kelly. 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:52.279 First of all, John Kelly is one of my closest friends, 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:57.080 and I encourage everybody to listen, to read, to follow 0:06:57.080 --> 0:07:01.400 what John Kelly has said about attempting to take President 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:05.359 Trump to a cemetery in the north of France, and 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:10.600 according to John Kelly, President Trump described those buried there 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:15.680 as suckers and losers. I think that is a disqualification 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:18.640 to be a commander in chief in terms of can 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:22.800 he put together coherent national security for the nation. It 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:27.040 depends on who he selects to bring in office alongside him. 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:31.320 The quality people. General Jim Mattis, General John Kelly, General 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:34.840 h R. McMaster. They're not coming back. You don't have 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:37.480 to get kicked by a mule a second time to 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.880 understand whether that's a good thing to do or not. 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:45.040 So if there is a second Trump presidency, we'll have 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:48.160 to see who's willing to come in and who does 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:48.720 come in. 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:52.200 Paul and I went to the Lawrenceville in Fairport War 0:07:52.360 --> 0:07:55.720 College where we figured out that Germans had two fronts, 0:07:56.120 --> 0:08:00.320 the Eastern Front and the Western Front. Israel has two 0:08:00.440 --> 0:08:04.920 three four fronts. Right now extending over to the persia 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:10.080 of your book. The leader's bookshelf isntnaho extended or because 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:13.520 of his small geography, can he handle those many fronts? 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:18.080 I think Israel is over extended. I'd say five fronts. 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:22.600 It's Hamas in the south, has Beala on the north. Obviously, 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:25.760 it is the Hoo theis to the far South. It's 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:30.320 also the militias in Syria. And it's Iran itself. I 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:32.600 can count that on the five fingers of my hand. 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:37.640 That's too many. Israel is only a nation of ten million, 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:42.959 seven million Jews. That's too few to ultimately fight wars 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:48.000 with countries like Iran newsflash, which has a population of 0:08:48.400 --> 0:08:53.320 ninety million. That's Iran alone. So Israel needs friends. And 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:58.280 let's go back to paragraph one. How important that relationship 0:08:58.400 --> 0:09:02.200 is for Israel, end for the United States, between the 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.359 US and Israel, DROI. 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:06.760 I don't want to lose a sight of Ukraine. Can 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:09.560 you give us your latest thinking on what's happening in 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:10.880 Ukraine and how it might play out? 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.240 I can, and thank you for raising it, because they 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.920 are losing oxygen to all that is happening in the 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:24.520 Middle East. The situation there remains relatively static. The battle 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:29.920 lines are in place. Russians are moving forward very slowly 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:33.640 in the east. The Ukrainians have carved a small chunk 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:37.080 out of Russia in the north. Ultimately, I think after 0:09:37.120 --> 0:09:41.080 the election we are probably headed for a negotiation because 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:45.120 the burn rate, think private equity, the burn rate on 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:50.280 both sides of that battle line is terrible. Pressure will 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:55.320 be for a negotiation regardless of who is elected in Washington. 0:09:55.920 --> 0:09:57.040 One final question. 0:09:57.360 --> 0:10:03.160 In your book The Restless Wave, Kai is trouble? Did 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:06.560 you know what Kai in Hawaii? Admiral asking for a 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:10.199 few Kai is nothing but trouble In your book, Admiral, did. 0:10:10.040 --> 0:10:11.880 You know someone like Kai. 0:10:12.200 --> 0:10:14.840 KaiA is a beautiful Hawaiian woman who ends up in 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:20.199 a love triangle? Thomas correct, between between a Navy officer 0:10:20.240 --> 0:10:23.880 and a Marine Corps officer. So in The Restless Wave, yes, 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:26.440 Kai is trouble, and yes I have met a few 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:28.920 beautiful women in Hawaii over the years. 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:33.840 Bottle that James Tavinis, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. 0:10:33.880 --> 0:10:36.160 The Restless Wave, folks, I can't It's not going to 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:38.600 be my book of the year because Kai's in it. 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:40.800 I can't help Kai and my book of. 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.600 The year Admiral James Travine is The Wrestless Wave. If 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:47.079 you love the winds of war, find it. It's hugely 0:10:47.200 --> 0:11:00.000 free book. Joining us now in for Global Wall Street, 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.440 It's time to lean forward. He's with pine Bridge Investments, 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:07.360 which is, you know, managing money and that huge heritage 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:10.240 with aig. Stephen O joins this globalhead of fixed income 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:15.360 except he writes, like PhD cell Side, his notes are 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:19.439 absolutely exquisite And the key thing Stephen Oh in your 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.120 note is it's not time to be defensive? 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.079 How do you be offensive in fixed income? 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:30.160 Well by writing that it was really looking forward to 0:11:30.200 --> 0:11:34.079 the fact that despite the type valuations, the economic environment 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:37.640 as well as defed as a global central bank easing cycle, 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.720 will be continued to be supportive of risk assets. So 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:44.040 what does that imply for not being defensive? It means 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:47.359 that the natural bias in that environment would be defensive. 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:50.360 But at a minimum, you take your exposure up to 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:55.400 a beta type risk exposure and take potshots at targeted opportunities. 0:11:55.559 --> 0:11:57.840 What you don't want to do is go hyper defensive 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:00.160 in this type of environment where yield is likely to 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:00.720 care today. 0:12:00.880 --> 0:12:03.199 So is that simply Paul Sweny buys a thirty year 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:05.360 New Jersey hospital bond. 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:07.560 Is that what it demolves down to? 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:10.920 Well, I guess it depends on That's a lot of 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:14.800 security selection risk there, so I can't opine on that. 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:18.200 But I think broadly speaking terms of where is the 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:20.400 risk component fixed income, right, it's going to be in 0:12:20.400 --> 0:12:22.959 the credit segments, and that's where you don't want to 0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:23.880 be hyper defensive. 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:27.240 Something we don't talk about, but I think it kind 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.319 of goes to where you're going, which is talk just 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.400 about the leverage loan market. What is that and how 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:33.840 do investors get exposure to that? 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.760 Well, leverage loan in its simplest form is corporate debt 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.360 that's syndicated and secured by assets of the business. In 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.520 the simplest history, it was really loans that were issued 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:47.000 by banks. But of course banks are not really in 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.480 the origination of debt anymore. They're in the intermediary business, 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.439 and the loans that they used to originate, which primarily 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:57.679 back leverage buyouts, have now moved to an institutional market 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.760 where trays very freely. Of course, whur it's the adjacent 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.480 market that's talked about ad nauseum for the last you know, 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:07.640 five six years is the private credit market as well. 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:09.199 And are there opportunities there? Do you see? I mean, 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:10.640 is that something that if you want to take up 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:12.800 maybe even a little more risk than above and beyond 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:14.520 high yield, that's the market you look at. 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:17.240 Well, well, first, I wouldn't say that it's higher risk 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:20.880 than high yield. It's really adjacency risk because those are 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:23.920 both blow investment. Great corporate credit. But what you are 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.400 getting right now is the credit spread over base rates 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:30.360 is elevated and it's one of the few places where 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.640 you are getting excess yield long spreads right now. For 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:36.480 the index is over four hundred basis points, which is, 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:38.800 you know, over one hundred basis points over the high 0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.199 yield index. But you do have to adjust that for 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.640 a like for like risk, because the way to look 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:47.000 at it is oftentimes there's a tendency to look at 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:48.839 acid class to asset class, and you have to look 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.800 at ratings to ratings or like risk to like risk, 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:54.040 and you're still getting a premium for that component. 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.199 Talk to somebody not as sophisticated. They're in a money 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.880 market fund. Go on, this is good to be true. 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.160 Our money market fund yields now too good to be true. 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.480 Well, money markets funds by nature are very short term, 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.880 and it's been a great place to be, although one 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.280 could make the case of perhaps there was opportunity cost 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:15.080 of not being in equities where you look at the 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.200 yield today and given the shape of the curve at 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:19.560 the short end where FED funds and so far is, 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.080 money market optically provides you a very high yield, but 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.240 you have to look forward that yield is going to 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:28.480 come down. And so I think it's just a matter 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:32.200 of do you utilize money market as primarily a return 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.680 seeking area or do you use it as a liquidity 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:38.360 while you hide out in what is acceptable returns at 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:39.000 this point in time? 0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:42.080 Could you use it as a liquidity? All right? 0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:43.800 Steven John Tucker and I we've been trying to get 0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:46.440 Tom out of his triple leverage all cash fun I've 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:49.240 got the FED that's cutting rates and I'm not in 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:49.920 a recession. 0:14:50.600 --> 0:14:52.000 Shouldn't Tom be taking. 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:52.360 Some risk here? 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:53.520 Well? 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.560 I think anybody's risk appetite is a function of where 0:14:56.560 --> 0:14:58.120 there are. You know, for all I know, Tom may 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:00.280 be so wealthy that he should be taking a lot 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:00.880 more risks. 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:07.560 You want to chime in, Oh yeah, what's that tuition bill? 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:07.840 Now? 0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.520 Thank you exactly continue mister oh uh. 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:14.360 And in terms of where do you want to be 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.720 in terms of risk right now, I think a balanced 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:20.200 approach is the best approach because in certain market environments, 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:22.280 the time you want to take risk, and I think 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:24.480 you know Warren Buffett said at best is when there's 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:26.760 a lot of trauma out there, when there's fear in 0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:29.680 the marketplace. There is not much fear in the marketplace 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.200 out there right now, so I don't think this is 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.360 an environment where you want to start adding more risk 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:39.200 to your portfolio. Is simply a type of market environment 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:42.240 where you want to be balanced in your approach because 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.680 nothing looks particularly cheap, but it's hard to see anything 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:47.960 that's going to cause a meaningful sell off in the 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:48.480 near term. 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:54.240 September was I think a record month for investment grade issuance. 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:58.520 So when Morgan, Stanley, Goldman, Sachs, all those folks were calling, 0:15:58.600 --> 0:16:00.560 bringing you guys, will you picking up the buying this 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:01.120 new stuff? 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:05.640 Well, we constantly look at not only what is the 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:07.840 value coming to the marketplace, but what is the value 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.480 in relation to what's trading in the secondary markets. Overall, 0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:15.840 and typically there are some new issue concessions, although at 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.760 times that has been very anemic, and so we have 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.680 been targeted in our approach to buying some of those 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:22.920 new issues. There have been some. 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.200 You don't buy everything that comes across the transom. 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.240 We're not a ten trillion dollar asset manager that has 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:32.240 to be beta. We pick and choose, and we manage 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.640 a very targeted alpha approach portfolio. 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:38.400 Steve Think Stephen O with Pinebridge brilliant. Note again we 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:40.400 protect the copyright of all of our guests. Look to 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:49.800 pine Bridge Investments for Steven Oh's brilliant professors showing now 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:53.320 from Brown University doing so much for the Taalban Center 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:58.040 for their international relations. I guess it's a close selection, Wendy, 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:01.640 and I guess there's a lot of tension. And I 0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:06.520 remember sitting there in shock after Bush Gore going. 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:07.600 How close is close? 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:10.760 Almost like I think it was Kennedy Humphrey in nineteen 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:12.760 sixty I really can't remember. 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:16.720 With Mayor Daily Clyde Haberman the New. 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:20.359 York Times twenty four years ago, on this day, high 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.960 falutin but hardly proud of it. He was talking about 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:27.439 fancy Yale people that went to Brown or Yale or 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:32.160 whatever fancy ivy league people dominant down to get elected. 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.960 Is that what we're seeing right now is everybody going basic, 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:38.960 you know, for a couple four weeks here because they 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:39.320 have to. 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:43.000 Well, I'm Tom I first I want to address this 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:45.680 is exactly what I've been talking about Bush Gore, Bush Gore. 0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:48.199 You know, statistical polling within the margin of era. 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:52.520 As you remember, they were absolutely statistically tied going into 0:17:52.600 --> 0:17:54.960 that election. You know, one day one be forty eight, 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.960 Yether'll be forty five. So exactly what you're pointing out 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.359 is that, oh, this is historic. We've never seen anything 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:02.439 like it. Yes we have, if you're old enough. We 0:18:02.520 --> 0:18:05.000 saw it in two thousand and that aftermath of that 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:06.920 election was a bit messy, we can say. 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:08.679 So I think we have to brace ourselves for that. 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.320 So I think I don't actually think that they're dumbing down. 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:14.920 I think that the Trump campaign, I mean he can 0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:17.920 go off the ranch sometimes, has been disciplined in its 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:21.840 messaging on border security and inflation. That's I mean basically 0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:24.000 pocketbook issues and security issues. 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:26.359 And Kamala Harris tried to. 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.720 Raise the conversation about her economic plan. It didn't take, 0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:33.280 so now she's simplifying it. I'm simply gonna make your 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:36.720 life economically better. That's what she's doing and leaving off 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:37.000 some of that. 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:39.000 Okay, Paul wants to jump in here. 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:42.679 Is that policy professor Schielder to say, I want you 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:45.240 to feel good or whatever, whichever candidate you know. I 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:47.600 don't want to pick sides, but is that what our 0:18:47.640 --> 0:18:50.679 policies devolved down to? His feel good statements? 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.920 Well, I mean, the problem is, as we've discussed before, 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:57.200 is that the federal government is so large now, and 0:18:57.280 --> 0:19:01.320 it is so enmeshed in every American's life, multiple dimensions 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:04.640 that most people don't even grasp how involved it is. 0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:09.320 So discussing a simple policy change is not simple because 0:19:09.359 --> 0:19:12.960 any policy change will whipple through a total a set 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.440 of federal programs and affect. 0:19:15.080 --> 0:19:18.119 Lots of different people in different ways. So it's not as. 0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:20.159 Easy as it used to be to say I'm going 0:19:20.200 --> 0:19:22.000 to do a and you're going to feel it in 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:22.720 six months. 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:24.680 It just doesn't happen in America anymore. 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:28.239 Hey, Wendy, let's fast forward to maybe the evening of 0:19:28.480 --> 0:19:31.520 November fifth, maybe the early morning hours November six, maybe 0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:33.960 bleeding into the day of November six, Are we going 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:35.880 to know anything? How is this going to plag out? 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:36.400 Do you think? 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:40.840 I think we face the situation in twenty twenty as well. 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:42.320 I think there are going to be some states you 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:46.200 can expect Georgia, you can expect Arizona in particular those states, 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:48.440 and Pennsylvania, by the way, doesn't, to my knowledge, does 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:51.720 not open mail in ballots till after they count the 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:52.760 in person ballots. 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.560 And if there are legal challenges for hand counting, not 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.720 just in Georgia and Arizona, but other places, it will 0:19:58.720 --> 0:19:59.879 slow down considerably. 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:04.639 Wisconsin also, So unless which we don't expect one candidate 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:07.680 is just going to run the table, We're probably not 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:10.199 going to know very much until the weekend, you know, 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:12.919 at the soonest, and it will be up to Secretaries 0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:16.879 of state, attorney generals, governors to certify election results and 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:20.679 make sure that county level election officials certify those results 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:21.800 in a timely fashion. 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:23.840 That's going to get messy pretty quickly. 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.800 Turnout. What do we expect for turnout, Wendy? Do we 0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.640 expect this to be a high turnout election a low 0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:33.600 turnout election? And does it favor one or the other? 0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:34.560 Well? 0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:36.159 I'm going to crip for one of my colleagues here 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:38.560 at Brown who said that she expects that it will 0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.600 be lower than even twenty twenty because of mail and 0:20:41.720 --> 0:20:44.399 valliding being so predominant in twenty twenty, but that the 0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:46.720 general level of enthusiasm is still. 0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:50.240 High on Trump core, and you know, is pretty high. 0:20:49.920 --> 0:20:52.960 Among Democrats, if you can call it enthusiasm or fear 0:20:53.119 --> 0:20:56.800 one or the other. But it's not quite the same 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.119 as it was in twenty eighteen twenty twenty when we 0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:02.160 saw historic mid two and presidential election turnouts. There's still 0:21:02.160 --> 0:21:04.600 a little bit of ambivalents and voters don't like to 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:05.520 regret their choice. 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:07.080 They don't want to regret their vote. 0:21:07.119 --> 0:21:09.520 So if they're still on certain election day, they made 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:10.359 our role to stay home. 0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:11.080 I want to show. 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:14.200 I mean, I know, with the electoral quality of Rhode Island, 0:21:14.640 --> 0:21:17.120 the Vice President Harris should have been sipping in there 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:20.520 against Lager Beer the other night, but instead she went 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:23.400 with the champagne of Wisconsin Beer's Miller High Life. 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:27.520 Okay, what is the symbolism of sipping a beer on TV? 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:29.359 What does that get you politically? 0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:33.600 Well, Bill Clinton, Win's McDonald's you know, Barack Obama had 0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:35.359 to find some food that was bad for him. They 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:37.240 was willing to eat on camera because we knew he 0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:39.639 didn't do it otherwise. You know, this is part of 0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:42.040 I can identify with you. 0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:44.960 I'll drink a beer too. I think it's a stretch. 0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:47.200