WEBVTT - Beating the Book: The 87th Masters Betting Preview 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:12.600 Check it in Man Now Down Man, Tuesday morning, April fourth, 0:00:12.720 --> 0:00:15.200 twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book podcast, 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:20.919 the eighty seventh Masters, Golf's first major tradition unlike any 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:23.560 other first major of the year that is not of 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.400 all time. It's Gil Alexander, thanks for joining us today 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.320 on the show to preview the Masters from a betting perspective. 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:35.200 Two of the three members of the long Shots podcast, which, 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:39.200 if you're not familiar, is Veson's golf dedicated podcast, which 0:00:39.240 --> 0:00:42.800 is co hosted by Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin. 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.320 Matt too much of a diva to show up for 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:48.280 this one, because you guys have a live Masters long 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:52.000 Shots performance coming up at about an hour after this show. 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:54.440 But Kelly and Wests are here. Thank you, gentlemen for 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:57.200 being here. I appreciate it. Thank you for having Mattelie 0:00:57.240 --> 0:00:59.280 shows up for the big stuff. Gil. Okay, come apparently, 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:02.960 so back your expectations. Good bye. So now, so when 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.119 people by the time people listen to this, and we'll 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.000 probably have already happened. But on the off chance that 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:09.600 people listen just before it happens, you guys are doing 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.120 a live long Shots at eleven am Pacific two pm 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.280 Eastern today. Yes, but it will also be in the 0:01:14.319 --> 0:01:18.480 normal long Shots podcast feed. So everybody listens to us weekly, 0:01:18.560 --> 0:01:21.720 go go find podcasts wherever podcasts can be found, head 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:23.640 Visa dot com. You'll find a whole right up. We've 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:26.200 got the Master's Guide out that we all took a 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.240 part in as well as Matt Humans, so definitely go 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.560 check that all out and this will be yes in 0:01:31.640 --> 0:01:34.360 our normal long Shots podcast feed. We've gotten a few 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:36.280 questions about that on Twitter and for people who are 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:37.560 listening to this, be like, wait a minute, but if 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:38.920 I'm listening to this, why do I have to go 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:41.560 listen to long Shots pod. Well, you'll get to hear 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:44.240 all of Matt's picks as well, and you guys probably 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:46.840 are holding something back for that show as well. Yeah, 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.040 I would say that, And uh, West, I don't know 0:01:49.080 --> 0:01:51.440 about you, but I kind of expect these shows to 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:55.400 be led differently from what with Gill versus Matt Browns. 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.760 We're gonna be okay, Gills will be slightly more jewish er. 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:04.680 So what he means, I think it's we don't. We 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:07.559 don't really like your Cohn coming down to Augusta Guil. 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:10.680 I know you want to join us for the Masters, Okay, 0:02:10.720 --> 0:02:15.280 So let's begin with And we've talked about this already 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:17.520 a myriad of times on a numbers game. I'm sure 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:19.840 you've talked about it West on different shows as well. 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:22.320 But let's just start with the weather, because that's an 0:02:22.360 --> 0:02:24.840 issue here. First of all, the Master's pool of players 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:28.239 is always like a ninety player pool kind of thing, 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:30.360 and then there's a lot of like sort of dead 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.959 money players of one masters, you know, in the during 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:37.600 the Eisenhower administration, Larry Mises of the world, Jose Mariela Thaboles. Yes, 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:40.280 So it's what makes this tournament so awesome because it's 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.200 a small pool of players, smallish compared to others, and 0:02:43.240 --> 0:02:46.600 it's the most predictive of all golf courses, Augusta is 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:48.360 from year to year. So you start with that as 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:51.160 a baseline. But we are throwing in the weather here. 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:53.280 So it's eighty percent as we look at the weather forecast, 0:02:53.320 --> 0:02:55.519 and you know weather forecasts go and West will start 0:02:55.520 --> 0:02:58.280 with you. So it's eighty percent chance on Friday, one 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.000 hundred percent chance on Saturday, sixty cent chance on Sunday. 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:04.639 We're doing this Tuesday morning. Do you let that affect 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:09.080 your handicapping? Yes and no. I think I think, look, 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.840 you have to with the draw bias. You know, you 0:03:11.840 --> 0:03:14.000 could try to handicap that as much as you can, 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:17.800 but sometimes you're just at the mercy of the weather 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:20.679 guides here. But just when I'm looking at Okay, how 0:03:20.800 --> 0:03:24.040 is the weather going to affect play? I think where 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:26.399 it affects play is the fact that, look, you have 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:29.160 elevated tea boxes on most of these holes, so that's 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:31.480 going to add to the impact of the wind. I'm 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:33.680 worried more about the wind than I am about the 0:03:33.800 --> 0:03:37.360 rain necessarily here over the past ten days, I believe 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.040 leading up to the event, as we record on Tuesday, 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:43.360 about a little over two inches of rainfall is what 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.880 we've seen on this course, and we're probably going to 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:49.040 get that over the weekend at some point or one 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:50.960 or the other. So what I think it's going to 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.240 do is how is it's going to affect the course. 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:55.080 It's going to affect the course. It's going to soften 0:03:55.160 --> 0:03:57.839 up the fairways, so that makes the course actually play 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.960 even longer because this is seventy five five, so this 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:03.320 is not a short course. By any stretching, it actually 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:06.440 plays a little bit longer because it's more hilly. That's 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:10.560 why you know when Tiger came backing right, Yes, a 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:13.240 part of that, and plus the fact Tiger coming from 0:04:13.280 --> 0:04:16.040 the injury, that's why it was so such a struggle 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.080 for him to see him get around because this is 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:20.440 a big course. This is not like a flat course 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:22.960 like in the desert where even if it's seventy five 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:26.040 hundred seventy six hundred yards, where it's easy to walk 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:29.760 and easy to manage. Plus getting the cooler temperatures here 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.760 on the weekend, the ball's not going to travel as far. 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.000 So this is why, at least from what I did, 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:39.279 you want a little bit more bombing off the tea 0:04:39.400 --> 0:04:42.279 and whether you're using those for outright bets or maybe 0:04:42.520 --> 0:04:46.040 top ten, top twenty placement market bets. I think distance 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.839 is really going to matter this year with this weather forecast. Yeah, 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:52.120 completely agree. They're often tee always important at the Masters. 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:53.760 I think maybe a little bit more this week. We 0:04:53.839 --> 0:04:55.240 heard a couple of the guests mentioned that on the 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:58.040 numbers game as well. I do think the one thing 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.279 to keep in mind with the Masters is I have 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.280 that I just looked up the subair system where they 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:06.080 have this like a filled air filtration system to get 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:08.560 the water out of the out of the greens and 0:05:08.600 --> 0:05:11.080 even the fairways. They're one of the few places in 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:13.640 the world lest I think that actually has that running 0:05:13.680 --> 0:05:17.920 in the fairways and not just the greens. So you've 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.320 heard some different reports over the past couple of days 0:05:20.320 --> 0:05:23.279 of the rain being bad, but they expect them to 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:26.039 dry out pretty well here over the next couple of days, 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:29.040 so we'll have to see. I think my advice always 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:32.560 with weather betting is okay if you're betting first round 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:36.120 leaders like I do, basically every tournament is absolutely something 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:37.800 that you need to keep in the front of your mind, 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.000 and you should be putting those first round leader bets 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:42.640 in basically up until the last minute that you can 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:46.280 and when you really have the best feel for what 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:48.160 the weather is going to be, like well your guy 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:52.360 is playing beyond that, I think you can. Often golf 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:56.080 betters often get themselves in trouble by trying to predict stuff. 0:05:56.120 --> 0:05:58.599 That's what I was trying to get because we've seen 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:03.000 it before, Gill. Sometimes sometimes the weather changes, sometimes a 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:08.440 lot of times it changes. You've noticed that right, especially 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:11.359 get to the open right, that's where you get like 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:14.839 the pronounced draw bias at the Open Championship, and sometimes 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:16.640 you're just at the mercy of it. You're just on 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:19.280 the bad side of the draw and none of your 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:22.800 gays contend. The biggest thing, though, is I think if 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:24.880 the weather is people don't think about this one enough. 0:06:24.960 --> 0:06:28.039 If it gets really bad, and you brought this up earlier, 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.320 I think one hundred percent right what we're looking on 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:33.120 Saturday Saturday. If it gets really bad, sometimes you just 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:34.880 get reined out for the rest of the day and 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:37.279 they pick up their balls and start again the next day. 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.360 So if you have this whole strategy in mind of 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:43.000 which you know which wave I'm gonna play and how 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.080 this is gonna work out, then all might be shot 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:47.840 to pieces by the time they blow that horn and 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:51.560 then they're done for the rounds. True. So when Drew Dinsick, 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:55.560 Dan Weston and I do our tennis slam pods, and 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:57.919 we also do any in welles, we're always trying to 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.320 time it right after the draw. Sometimes we even get 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.560 lucky at it's happening while we're on You guys were 0:07:03.600 --> 0:07:05.920 waiting to see where the tea Times were we're Tuesday, 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:07.760 We're forty eight hours before this thing starts, and you 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:09.520 guys were like, where are the tea times and West 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:12.280 they just came out just now. They did just come out. So, 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:16.160 you know, you always get like different types of players 0:07:16.200 --> 0:07:19.920 because you know, you mentioned that you have former champions here, 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:23.480 you have a few amateurs here from all over the world, 0:07:23.600 --> 0:07:27.160 and you have guys that you know, now with the 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:31.160 live thing, you have live players mixed in with different 0:07:31.160 --> 0:07:33.520 type of players. So it's always interested to look at 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:38.280 those storylines who's paired with who? But just looking at this, 0:07:38.400 --> 0:07:41.520 you know, kind of on the once over, nothing really 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:44.280 like strikes me. You know, like I didn't really see 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:46.840 any you know, two guys that hate each other or 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:49.560 anything like that. Like I didn't see Rory wasn't paired 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:53.120 with Phil Mickelson. They didn't play or anything like that. Yeah, 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.160 they didn't put Patrick Red with Rory or one of 0:07:56.200 --> 0:08:00.240 like the PGA Tour loyalists here. So yeah, so yeah, 0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:03.400 you're getting these these tea times. You know, early on, 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:06.920 obviously the three honorary starters player Nicholas and Watson hit 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:09.600 the first shot and then I believe eight Eastern is 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:12.440 the first tea time goes all the way to two Eastern, 0:08:12.600 --> 0:08:15.880 which the last group I believe is Jordan Spief, Tommy Fleetwood, 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:19.360 Tony Fee now for the Thursday group and then inverted 0:08:19.440 --> 0:08:22.600 obviously on Friday. All right, let's so yeah, go ahead. Well, 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:27.160 I was very I was looking for these as quickly 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:31.040 as humanly possible for a very very specific strategy of Hell, 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:34.160 I'm playing this tournament. Um, now, I could save that 0:08:34.160 --> 0:08:35.400 for when we go over bets or if you want 0:08:35.440 --> 0:08:37.040 me to launch until it right, let's hear that now 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:39.440 like that, Gil, it's a guy that you're on in 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:43.000 this tournament and you love him. Scotty cheff Yes, everything 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.200 that I all of my research and West we're gonna 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.000 be hitting on this a bunch, but running the models 0:08:48.000 --> 0:08:51.959 and everything. Scheffler is so by far my number one 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:55.160 rated guy in this field and not even really that close. 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:59.000 Um defending champion and usually that doesn't happen back to 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:01.679 usually does not happen. But we saw what he did 0:09:01.760 --> 0:09:03.560 last year. I think he's in the best form of 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:07.559 those big three right now. Between Rory and Ram. I 0:09:07.600 --> 0:09:09.920 wanted to see one thing. Is he going to be 0:09:09.920 --> 0:09:11.600 earlier is he going to be late, because if he's 0:09:11.600 --> 0:09:13.840 an early tea time, I might have to fire before 0:09:13.880 --> 0:09:15.960 this tournament begins, and I don't really want to fire 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.400 at seven No. One, but if I can wait now, 0:09:18.440 --> 0:09:20.800 I'm gonna approach this from a live standpoint, because as 0:09:21.280 --> 0:09:23.640 West told me, he is what one of the later ones, 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:26.480 he is the third D last group, third D last groups. 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:29.200 So what you can do now? And we even have 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:31.560 a book that offers us in Vegas or two books, 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:36.199 but if you're outside of Vegas, you're Colorado, Jersey, whatever, DraftKings, 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:39.719 MGM fan to all these all these books will keep 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:43.360 up outright markets throughout the round. So all I'm looking 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:45.320 forward to someone to go out early and post a 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:49.640 low number. Go low, and Scheffler's odds should get longer 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.680 before he even teas off. So that is what I'm 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:54.679 hoping to do is actually grab a piece of Scott 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:57.600 and Scheffler before he teas off. The same applies, by 0:09:57.640 --> 0:10:00.280 the way, to Rory McElroy. You mentioned Cherry up third 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:03.240 to last group, Scheffler, Holmes the amateur, Sam Bennett, the 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:06.600 US Amateur champion, second to last group, Tom Kim, Rory 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.720 McElroy and Sam Burns, so two of the top three 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.880 along with John rom that you're seeing anywhere seven to one, 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:15.320 eight to one, nine to one. Like Kelly said, you 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:18.199 can wait and then you get that double digits because 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:20.960 like I'm more partial Rory McElroy, I don't want to 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.520 bet him necessarily at seven to one. I want to 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:26.320 wait a little bit that I like that strategy. Who 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:28.559 are the two books? I'm gonna guess one of them Caesar's. 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:33.040 Who is the other book in Vegas that leaves them up? Boyd? Okay, 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:36.400 boy boyd? And in Caesar's that was the only one. 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:38.679 I'm kind of unsure because I've seen them do it. 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:41.200 Yeah most of the time. I think they're doing it 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.280 all the time now. But well, because I could do 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:47.480 there's there's like pillars of offshore, right, bookmaker, let's just 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:50.840 say who it is. Bookmaker will not they do it 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:54.040 a little more for the majors, but like on a Thursday, 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:56.760 they're not leaving those things up during the round. I 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.080 don't believe it's interesting draft Kings will leave them up 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:03.200 the entire course they will. Yeah, that's it's It's not 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:05.280 like we'd be allowed to bet there anyway, right, exactly, 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.680 but that for everybody listening right that might be outside 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:09.680 in the vata. These are those things though that it's 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:12.800 how do you I don't want to say manipulate the markets, right, 0:11:12.800 --> 0:11:15.319 but it's looking for different way. How do you manipulate 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.040 that number where you don't West doesn't want to bet 0:11:17.040 --> 0:11:18.680 seven to one or a or you have to think 0:11:18.679 --> 0:11:21.360 about these ways if you want to attract more value 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:23.520 out of those golfers. All right, let's let's start with 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:25.960 your outrights and then all sort of cherry pick golfers 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:27.720 is gonna want to ask you about specifically. But West, 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.400 let's start with your with your outrights that you have 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:34.480 in pocket currently. Yeah, and look with the masters. I 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.120 usually because these are up so much longer, Gil, because 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.160 these are up you know come the winter time, right, 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:43.760 you're gonna probably have more outrights than you would usually 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.400 have on like an average tournament or like US Open 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:48.920 or PGA, and you're gonna have them a different number. 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:50.720 So there's gonna be a segment of the audience that's 0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:53.400 gonna be like, yeah, so I'll get like my antipost 0:11:53.520 --> 0:11:55.600 what they call it overseas out of the way a 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:58.000 couple I bet we'll tell us if you'd still bet 0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:00.720 them at current numbers as well. Camera and Young. Yes, 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.360 in the thirty range where I'm seeing him. I got 0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:05.920 him at forty five to one. I bet him during 0:12:05.960 --> 0:12:08.280 the dull match play and look he went to the 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.440 final loss to Sam Burns. Obviously, Cameron Young, I would 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.720 still bet Jason Day, which I have at forty I 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:17.000 probably would not bet I'm I got very lukewarm. This 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.800 was before Jason Day had that little bout with vertigo 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:23.720 or had the dizzy spell that he oftentimes has, and 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:25.839 I had bet him before that, and he was three 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:27.880 up against Scottie Scheffler in the match play, and then 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:29.400 that's when it happened. I was like, oh, no, here 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.160 we go again. Because Jason Day, the poor guy. I'm 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:34.000 a big fan of his, but he's made a glass, 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.599 he's always injured, he's always sick. So no, I'm not 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:39.800 going to bet him in the twentiesh range this week. 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.720 Absolutely not, okay, but Cam Young is one of yours 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:45.319 that Cameron Young, I would still be willing to sponsor 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.640 in the low to mid thirties. Okay, those are all 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.960 that you have. That's what I had free A couple 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:53.880 of weeks ago, but the ones I added this week. 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:56.880 I did go with Jordan Spief, which I found a 0:12:56.880 --> 0:13:00.520 little over twenty in the market here in town. He's 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.840 had a couple chances to win already this year. He 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:05.920 was fourth at bay Hill. You know that that very 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:09.120 condensed leaderboard where they're about eight guys in. Kurt Kiddiama 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:11.440 was the first guy to make a pot on seventeen 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:13.680 and one. Jordan Spief could have easily won that. He 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.319 probably should have won in Tampa before he hit a 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.880 ball in the water on sixteen. You could argue he 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:21.120 should have three green jackets here instead of just the 0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.600 one in twenty fifteen. He definitely should have that second one. Yeah, sure, 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:28.040 But with Danny Willett, Yeah absolutely, Danny Willet was able 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:31.000 to steal it from him in the end, but possession 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:33.680 nine tenths of the law of course, second in strokes 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:36.640 getting around the green over the last thirty six rounds. 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:40.679 What's that it is, Danny Willett. Danny Willet's not saying no, 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:44.240 don't invite me Champions dinner, so I'll hold it at 0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:47.120 my house. Yes, twenty one to one. For speed, he's 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:49.400 second and strokes getting around the green, which I think 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:51.960 is going to be important this week, considering only about 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.520 a sixty percent rate in terms of greens of regulation. 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:56.800 These are hard greens to hit. And the guy who's 0:13:56.840 --> 0:13:58.959 been the best in strokes getting around the green, Justin 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:02.880 Thomas and Kelly and I have had this conversation a lot, Gil, 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:06.200 especially with the top ten to fifteen players in the world, 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:09.040 you can have target numbers on these guys when they 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:12.400 drift to a certain number. Justin Thomas's number for me 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.920 is anything north of twenty five to one. It's like 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:18.280 an autopl man point ye, yeah, absolutely, And look he 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:21.640 you know, has never really been right in the hunt here. 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.360 He's got a couple of really good finishes. The approach 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.960 plays dipped a little bit, but he's been great around 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.080 the green this year. He also has Bones McKay, Jim 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:32.280 Bones McKay on the bag who won this thing three 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:36.040 times of course with Bill Mickelson. So Justin Thomas, once 0:14:36.120 --> 0:14:38.080 he got up to above twenty five, he was an 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.840 AutoPlay for me. Tony Fee now who I have just 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.320 a little bit less than thirty to one, Top five, 0:14:43.400 --> 0:14:47.320 all four majors, top ten in actually ten, top tens 0:14:47.320 --> 0:14:49.840 in the twenty six that he's played. The difference with 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.840 Fee now now and Matt Brown, Kelly and I talk 0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:55.400 about this on long shots all the time is win equity. 0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.360 Who wins? You know, who gets you some wins? And 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:01.120 I know Kelly has played a lot of Sam Burns 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:03.640 and a lot of Max Homa because they have win equity. 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:06.360 Will so does Tony Fee. Now he's won three times 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:09.640 since the Open Championship last summer. This is a new thing. 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:12.440 We can say, yeah, because remember he didn't win for 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.440 like five years after he won that Puerto Rico opened. 0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:19.600 So Tony Fee now twenty nine. Colin Marikawa, who I 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:21.920 got at thirty four to one at Cercin. He's still 0:15:22.000 --> 0:15:25.280 drifting upwards so apparently not drawing a lot of interest. 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:28.840 He has friendless in the market as our friend Dan Weston. Yes, 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:32.200 yes he is, but I'll be his pal. He has 0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:35.360 not won in eighteen months anywhere. He won in Dubai 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:37.840 for the DP World Tour Championship at the end of 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:41.280 twenty twenty one. But one of the world's best iron players. 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:43.880 Second on approach, fourth on ball striking, fourth tee to 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.200 green last thirty six rounds. So Colin Maracawa for me, 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:49.760 Sun jay N that was one that I had just 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:51.840 bet on a drift. I got him at forty four 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:55.640 to one. Hasn't really done anything wrong this season, but 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.440 just hasn't contended except at Tory Pines, where he was 0:15:58.480 --> 0:16:02.080 fourth earlier this year ye but second on debut here 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:06.080 in twenty twenty, was eighth last year. So, like you say, 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.920 predictive course, go with guys that play well here every year, 0:16:08.960 --> 0:16:11.640 and soon Jam pretty much does. Another guy that does 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.000 a Sideki Matsiyama, who I wasn't gonna bet, but I 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:16.760 saw him at fifty to one. I'm like, man, this 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.560 could feel like a Matza Yama week, who is probably 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:23.440 putting the best he's putted his entire career, and seven 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:25.760 of his eight PGA Tour wins are on ben grass, 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.480 so I think he's gonna like these greens and won 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:31.640 this tournament with one of the more iconic moments ever 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:34.240 with a nod from the caddy. Oh yes, one of 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:36.920 my favorite moments of sports in sports. Yeah, look, and 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:39.040 I know he's been battling a little bit of a 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:40.960 neck injury, but it looks like he's good to go. 0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:44.000 But Mazzi Yama is almost It's almost like Tom Brady 0:16:44.080 --> 0:16:46.560 with Bill Belichick. Like Tom Brady was always listed on 0:16:46.600 --> 0:16:49.000 the injury report, but you knew he was gonna play. 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:52.240 I think that's the deal with Matsiyama. I didn't go 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.000 if many bombs because the average price of the winner 0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:57.840 over the last ten years is like twenty seven to one, 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:00.480 so you can't go that deep, even though I played 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:03.920 one deeper. Guy Men Woolee ninety five to one. Men 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:06.879 woo Lee, he finished T fourteen last year, actually shot 0:17:06.960 --> 0:17:09.760 thirty on the front nine and then forty on the back, 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:12.880 so he missed out getting a return invite by one shot, 0:17:13.119 --> 0:17:15.159 but he gets back in being in the top fifty 0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:18.280 in the world. So Men Wu ninety five to one 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.119 at Circus Sports. If you're here in Vain, let me 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:21.640 just before we get to Kelly's, and then I'll ask 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:25.080 you about specific golfers. A couple of the names you mentioned. 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.439 Tony Fenew point out Joe pet who has been on 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.280 this Master's Preview many years but was not really diving 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:34.200 into golf these days. He did write the The Real 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:37.680 the Bible on Analytics at Augusta, which is not which 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.480 is not public domain information. It's proprietary. He had to 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:42.760 do the digging on this and Tony Fenew in that 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:45.560 twenty nineteen Tour guide was the guy who came out 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:49.879 with the best metrics on this course. So that's a 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:51.840 nod for your Tony Feedelle pick. And the other one 0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:53.840 is Kelly and I talked about that this morning on 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.840 a Numbers game. Dave Tindall who's been on this Master's 0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:00.240 Preview before at Dave tindal Golf on Twitter, who writes 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:02.399 for Betfair. He does his like we do our college 0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:06.000 basketball formula West he does his Master's formula where he 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:08.879 goes through the age of the golfer the world, ranking 0:18:08.920 --> 0:18:12.639 their appearances and their placements at Augusta before how what 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:16.280 their recent form is, their lowest Augusta around. You know, 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:20.600 Strokes gained around the Green on and on with his 0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:23.800 different categories. And Jordan Spieth was the guy that came 0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:28.399 up as the main guy just nipping Rory. So shout 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.280 out to your Jordan Spieth call as well, Kelly, what 0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:34.480 do you got? Yeah, I'll start, I'll start right right 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:37.359 where WestEd with Justin Thomas. This was a it's not 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:39.760 a smaller, it's not a bigger bet for me this week, 0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:41.000 and it is a little bit of a smaller for 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:44.439 an outright, but West, I can't say much more perfectly 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:46.920 than West. Twenty five to one is about my breaking 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:50.160 point where I was. I was kind of tracking them 0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:53.080 all week. Do I have him way to blow a 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.360 few other guys? Yeah, but he drifted to twenty six 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:59.040 to one here at Circle in Town. I finally pulled 0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:01.360 the trigger last night. It's a bet I had to make. 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:03.680 I think he summed it up all pretty well. West, 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:07.320 not not exactly so many times he could have. It 0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:09.960 felt like he could have finished better here at the Masters. 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:12.399 But he's still if you just look at it long term, 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.119 still one of the best, most consistent players at this 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:18.240 course when we talk course history for all these guys, 0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:22.240 he was top thirteen all the models I ran. Not really, 0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:24.880 as you point out, West, not really nice spiking anywhere 0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:28.520