Speaker 1: Check it in Man Now Down Man, Tuesday morning, April fourth,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. It is the Beating the Book podcast,
Speaker 1: the eighty seventh Masters, Golf's first major tradition unlike any
Speaker 1: other first major of the year that is not of
Speaker 1: all time. It's Gil Alexander, thanks for joining us today
Speaker 1: on the show to preview the Masters from a betting perspective.
Speaker 1: Two of the three members of the long Shots podcast, which,
Speaker 1: if you're not familiar, is Veson's golf dedicated podcast, which
Speaker 1: is co hosted by Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 1: Matt too much of a diva to show up for
Speaker 1: this one, because you guys have a live Masters long
Speaker 1: Shots performance coming up at about an hour after this show.
Speaker 1: But Kelly and Wests are here. Thank you, gentlemen for
Speaker 1: being here. I appreciate it. Thank you for having Mattelie
Speaker 1: shows up for the big stuff. Gil. Okay, come apparently,
Speaker 1: so back your expectations. Good bye. So now, so when
Speaker 1: people by the time people listen to this, and we'll
Speaker 1: probably have already happened. But on the off chance that
Speaker 1: people listen just before it happens, you guys are doing
Speaker 1: a live long Shots at eleven am Pacific two pm
Speaker 1: Eastern today. Yes, but it will also be in the
Speaker 1: normal long Shots podcast feed. So everybody listens to us weekly,
Speaker 1: go go find podcasts wherever podcasts can be found, head
Speaker 1: Visa dot com. You'll find a whole right up. We've
Speaker 1: got the Master's Guide out that we all took a
Speaker 1: part in as well as Matt Humans, so definitely go
Speaker 1: check that all out and this will be yes in
Speaker 1: our normal long Shots podcast feed. We've gotten a few
Speaker 1: questions about that on Twitter and for people who are
Speaker 1: listening to this, be like, wait a minute, but if
Speaker 1: I'm listening to this, why do I have to go
Speaker 1: listen to long Shots pod. Well, you'll get to hear
Speaker 1: all of Matt's picks as well, and you guys probably
Speaker 1: are holding something back for that show as well. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I would say that, And uh, West, I don't know
Speaker 1: about you, but I kind of expect these shows to
Speaker 1: be led differently from what with Gill versus Matt Browns.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be okay, Gills will be slightly more jewish er.
Speaker 1: So what he means, I think it's we don't. We
Speaker 1: don't really like your Cohn coming down to Augusta Guil.
Speaker 1: I know you want to join us for the Masters, Okay,
Speaker 1: So let's begin with And we've talked about this already
Speaker 1: a myriad of times on a numbers game. I'm sure
Speaker 1: you've talked about it West on different shows as well.
Speaker 1: But let's just start with the weather, because that's an
Speaker 1: issue here. First of all, the Master's pool of players
Speaker 1: is always like a ninety player pool kind of thing,
Speaker 1: and then there's a lot of like sort of dead
Speaker 1: money players of one masters, you know, in the during
Speaker 1: the Eisenhower administration, Larry Mises of the world, Jose Mariela Thaboles. Yes,
Speaker 1: So it's what makes this tournament so awesome because it's
Speaker 1: a small pool of players, smallish compared to others, and
Speaker 1: it's the most predictive of all golf courses, Augusta is
Speaker 1: from year to year. So you start with that as
Speaker 1: a baseline. But we are throwing in the weather here.
Speaker 1: So it's eighty percent as we look at the weather forecast,
Speaker 1: and you know weather forecasts go and West will start
Speaker 1: with you. So it's eighty percent chance on Friday, one
Speaker 1: hundred percent chance on Saturday, sixty cent chance on Sunday.
Speaker 1: We're doing this Tuesday morning. Do you let that affect
Speaker 1: your handicapping? Yes and no. I think I think, look,
Speaker 1: you have to with the draw bias. You know, you
Speaker 1: could try to handicap that as much as you can,
Speaker 1: but sometimes you're just at the mercy of the weather
Speaker 1: guides here. But just when I'm looking at Okay, how
Speaker 1: is the weather going to affect play? I think where
Speaker 1: it affects play is the fact that, look, you have
Speaker 1: elevated tea boxes on most of these holes, so that's
Speaker 1: going to add to the impact of the wind. I'm
Speaker 1: worried more about the wind than I am about the
Speaker 1: rain necessarily here over the past ten days, I believe
Speaker 1: leading up to the event, as we record on Tuesday,
Speaker 1: about a little over two inches of rainfall is what
Speaker 1: we've seen on this course, and we're probably going to
Speaker 1: get that over the weekend at some point or one
Speaker 1: or the other. So what I think it's going to
Speaker 1: do is how is it's going to affect the course.
Speaker 1: It's going to affect the course. It's going to soften
Speaker 1: up the fairways, so that makes the course actually play
Speaker 1: even longer because this is seventy five five, so this
Speaker 1: is not a short course. By any stretching, it actually
Speaker 1: plays a little bit longer because it's more hilly. That's
Speaker 1: why you know when Tiger came backing right, Yes, a
Speaker 1: part of that, and plus the fact Tiger coming from
Speaker 1: the injury, that's why it was so such a struggle
Speaker 1: for him to see him get around because this is
Speaker 1: a big course. This is not like a flat course
Speaker 1: like in the desert where even if it's seventy five
Speaker 1: hundred seventy six hundred yards, where it's easy to walk
Speaker 1: and easy to manage. Plus getting the cooler temperatures here
Speaker 1: on the weekend, the ball's not going to travel as far.
Speaker 1: So this is why, at least from what I did,
Speaker 1: you want a little bit more bombing off the tea
Speaker 1: and whether you're using those for outright bets or maybe
Speaker 1: top ten, top twenty placement market bets. I think distance
Speaker 1: is really going to matter this year with this weather forecast. Yeah,
Speaker 1: completely agree. They're often tee always important at the Masters.
Speaker 1: I think maybe a little bit more this week. We
Speaker 1: heard a couple of the guests mentioned that on the
Speaker 1: numbers game as well. I do think the one thing
Speaker 1: to keep in mind with the Masters is I have
Speaker 1: that I just looked up the subair system where they
Speaker 1: have this like a filled air filtration system to get
Speaker 1: the water out of the out of the greens and
Speaker 1: even the fairways. They're one of the few places in
Speaker 1: the world lest I think that actually has that running
Speaker 1: in the fairways and not just the greens. So you've
Speaker 1: heard some different reports over the past couple of days
Speaker 1: of the rain being bad, but they expect them to
Speaker 1: dry out pretty well here over the next couple of days,
Speaker 1: so we'll have to see. I think my advice always
Speaker 1: with weather betting is okay if you're betting first round
Speaker 1: leaders like I do, basically every tournament is absolutely something
Speaker 1: that you need to keep in the front of your mind,
Speaker 1: and you should be putting those first round leader bets
Speaker 1: in basically up until the last minute that you can
Speaker 1: and when you really have the best feel for what
Speaker 1: the weather is going to be, like well your guy
Speaker 1: is playing beyond that, I think you can. Often golf
Speaker 1: betters often get themselves in trouble by trying to predict stuff.
Speaker 1: That's what I was trying to get because we've seen
Speaker 1: it before, Gill. Sometimes sometimes the weather changes, sometimes a
Speaker 1: lot of times it changes. You've noticed that right, especially
Speaker 1: get to the open right, that's where you get like
Speaker 1: the pronounced draw bias at the Open Championship, and sometimes
Speaker 1: you're just at the mercy of it. You're just on
Speaker 1: the bad side of the draw and none of your
Speaker 1: gays contend. The biggest thing, though, is I think if
Speaker 1: the weather is people don't think about this one enough.
Speaker 1: If it gets really bad, and you brought this up earlier,
Speaker 1: I think one hundred percent right what we're looking on
Speaker 1: Saturday Saturday. If it gets really bad, sometimes you just
Speaker 1: get reined out for the rest of the day and
Speaker 1: they pick up their balls and start again the next day.
Speaker 1: So if you have this whole strategy in mind of
Speaker 1: which you know which wave I'm gonna play and how
Speaker 1: this is gonna work out, then all might be shot
Speaker 1: to pieces by the time they blow that horn and
Speaker 1: then they're done for the rounds. True. So when Drew Dinsick,
Speaker 1: Dan Weston and I do our tennis slam pods, and
Speaker 1: we also do any in welles, we're always trying to
Speaker 1: time it right after the draw. Sometimes we even get
Speaker 1: lucky at it's happening while we're on You guys were
Speaker 1: waiting to see where the tea Times were we're Tuesday,
Speaker 1: We're forty eight hours before this thing starts, and you
Speaker 1: guys were like, where are the tea times and West
Speaker 1: they just came out just now. They did just come out. So,
Speaker 1: you know, you always get like different types of players
Speaker 1: because you know, you mentioned that you have former champions here,
Speaker 1: you have a few amateurs here from all over the world,
Speaker 1: and you have guys that you know, now with the
Speaker 1: live thing, you have live players mixed in with different
Speaker 1: type of players. So it's always interested to look at
Speaker 1: those storylines who's paired with who? But just looking at this,
Speaker 1: you know, kind of on the once over, nothing really
Speaker 1: like strikes me. You know, like I didn't really see
Speaker 1: any you know, two guys that hate each other or
Speaker 1: anything like that. Like I didn't see Rory wasn't paired
Speaker 1: with Phil Mickelson. They didn't play or anything like that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they didn't put Patrick Red with Rory or one of
Speaker 1: like the PGA Tour loyalists here. So yeah, so yeah,
Speaker 1: you're getting these these tea times. You know, early on,
Speaker 1: obviously the three honorary starters player Nicholas and Watson hit
Speaker 1: the first shot and then I believe eight Eastern is
Speaker 1: the first tea time goes all the way to two Eastern,
Speaker 1: which the last group I believe is Jordan Spief, Tommy Fleetwood,
Speaker 1: Tony Fee now for the Thursday group and then inverted
Speaker 1: obviously on Friday. All right, let's so yeah, go ahead. Well,
Speaker 1: I was very I was looking for these as quickly
Speaker 1: as humanly possible for a very very specific strategy of Hell,
Speaker 1: I'm playing this tournament. Um, now, I could save that
Speaker 1: for when we go over bets or if you want
Speaker 1: me to launch until it right, let's hear that now
Speaker 1: like that, Gil, it's a guy that you're on in
Speaker 1: this tournament and you love him. Scotty cheff Yes, everything
Speaker 1: that I all of my research and West we're gonna
Speaker 1: be hitting on this a bunch, but running the models
Speaker 1: and everything. Scheffler is so by far my number one
Speaker 1: rated guy in this field and not even really that close.
Speaker 1: Um defending champion and usually that doesn't happen back to
Speaker 1: usually does not happen. But we saw what he did
Speaker 1: last year. I think he's in the best form of
Speaker 1: those big three right now. Between Rory and Ram. I
Speaker 1: wanted to see one thing. Is he going to be
Speaker 1: earlier is he going to be late, because if he's
Speaker 1: an early tea time, I might have to fire before
Speaker 1: this tournament begins, and I don't really want to fire
Speaker 1: at seven No. One, but if I can wait now,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna approach this from a live standpoint, because as
Speaker 1: West told me, he is what one of the later ones,
Speaker 1: he is the third D last group, third D last groups.
Speaker 1: So what you can do now? And we even have
Speaker 1: a book that offers us in Vegas or two books,
Speaker 1: but if you're outside of Vegas, you're Colorado, Jersey, whatever, DraftKings,
Speaker 1: MGM fan to all these all these books will keep
Speaker 1: up outright markets throughout the round. So all I'm looking
Speaker 1: forward to someone to go out early and post a
Speaker 1: low number. Go low, and Scheffler's odds should get longer
Speaker 1: before he even teas off. So that is what I'm
Speaker 1: hoping to do is actually grab a piece of Scott
Speaker 1: and Scheffler before he teas off. The same applies, by
Speaker 1: the way, to Rory McElroy. You mentioned Cherry up third
Speaker 1: to last group, Scheffler, Holmes the amateur, Sam Bennett, the
Speaker 1: US Amateur champion, second to last group, Tom Kim, Rory
Speaker 1: McElroy and Sam Burns, so two of the top three
Speaker 1: along with John rom that you're seeing anywhere seven to one,
Speaker 1: eight to one, nine to one. Like Kelly said, you
Speaker 1: can wait and then you get that double digits because
Speaker 1: like I'm more partial Rory McElroy, I don't want to
Speaker 1: bet him necessarily at seven to one. I want to
Speaker 1: wait a little bit that I like that strategy. Who
Speaker 1: are the two books? I'm gonna guess one of them Caesar's.
Speaker 1: Who is the other book in Vegas that leaves them up? Boyd? Okay,
Speaker 1: boy boyd? And in Caesar's that was the only one.
Speaker 1: I'm kind of unsure because I've seen them do it.
Speaker 1: Yeah most of the time. I think they're doing it
Speaker 1: all the time now. But well, because I could do
Speaker 1: there's there's like pillars of offshore, right, bookmaker, let's just
Speaker 1: say who it is. Bookmaker will not they do it
Speaker 1: a little more for the majors, but like on a Thursday,
Speaker 1: they're not leaving those things up during the round. I
Speaker 1: don't believe it's interesting draft Kings will leave them up
Speaker 1: the entire course they will. Yeah, that's it's It's not
Speaker 1: like we'd be allowed to bet there anyway, right, exactly,
Speaker 1: but that for everybody listening right that might be outside
Speaker 1: in the vata. These are those things though that it's
Speaker 1: how do you I don't want to say manipulate the markets, right,
Speaker 1: but it's looking for different way. How do you manipulate
Speaker 1: that number where you don't West doesn't want to bet
Speaker 1: seven to one or a or you have to think
Speaker 1: about these ways if you want to attract more value
Speaker 1: out of those golfers. All right, let's let's start with
Speaker 1: your outrights and then all sort of cherry pick golfers
Speaker 1: is gonna want to ask you about specifically. But West,
Speaker 1: let's start with your with your outrights that you have
Speaker 1: in pocket currently. Yeah, and look with the masters. I
Speaker 1: usually because these are up so much longer, Gil, because
Speaker 1: these are up you know come the winter time, right,
Speaker 1: you're gonna probably have more outrights than you would usually
Speaker 1: have on like an average tournament or like US Open
Speaker 1: or PGA, and you're gonna have them a different number.
Speaker 1: So there's gonna be a segment of the audience that's
Speaker 1: gonna be like, yeah, so I'll get like my antipost
Speaker 1: what they call it overseas out of the way a
Speaker 1: couple I bet we'll tell us if you'd still bet
Speaker 1: them at current numbers as well. Camera and Young. Yes,
Speaker 1: in the thirty range where I'm seeing him. I got
Speaker 1: him at forty five to one. I bet him during
Speaker 1: the dull match play and look he went to the
Speaker 1: final loss to Sam Burns. Obviously, Cameron Young, I would
Speaker 1: still bet Jason Day, which I have at forty I
Speaker 1: probably would not bet I'm I got very lukewarm. This
Speaker 1: was before Jason Day had that little bout with vertigo
Speaker 1: or had the dizzy spell that he oftentimes has, and
Speaker 1: I had bet him before that, and he was three
Speaker 1: up against Scottie Scheffler in the match play, and then
Speaker 1: that's when it happened. I was like, oh, no, here
Speaker 1: we go again. Because Jason Day, the poor guy. I'm
Speaker 1: a big fan of his, but he's made a glass,
Speaker 1: he's always injured, he's always sick. So no, I'm not
Speaker 1: going to bet him in the twentiesh range this week.
Speaker 1: Absolutely not, okay, but Cam Young is one of yours
Speaker 1: that Cameron Young, I would still be willing to sponsor
Speaker 1: in the low to mid thirties. Okay, those are all
Speaker 1: that you have. That's what I had free A couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, but the ones I added this week.
Speaker 1: I did go with Jordan Spief, which I found a
Speaker 1: little over twenty in the market here in town. He's
Speaker 1: had a couple chances to win already this year. He
Speaker 1: was fourth at bay Hill. You know that that very
Speaker 1: condensed leaderboard where they're about eight guys in. Kurt Kiddiama
Speaker 1: was the first guy to make a pot on seventeen
Speaker 1: and one. Jordan Spief could have easily won that. He
Speaker 1: probably should have won in Tampa before he hit a
Speaker 1: ball in the water on sixteen. You could argue he
Speaker 1: should have three green jackets here instead of just the
Speaker 1: one in twenty fifteen. He definitely should have that second one. Yeah, sure,
Speaker 1: But with Danny Willett, Yeah absolutely, Danny Willet was able
Speaker 1: to steal it from him in the end, but possession
Speaker 1: nine tenths of the law of course, second in strokes
Speaker 1: getting around the green over the last thirty six rounds.
Speaker 1: What's that it is, Danny Willett. Danny Willet's not saying no,
Speaker 1: don't invite me Champions dinner, so I'll hold it at
Speaker 1: my house. Yes, twenty one to one. For speed, he's
Speaker 1: second and strokes getting around the green, which I think
Speaker 1: is going to be important this week, considering only about
Speaker 1: a sixty percent rate in terms of greens of regulation.
Speaker 1: These are hard greens to hit. And the guy who's
Speaker 1: been the best in strokes getting around the green, Justin
Speaker 1: Thomas and Kelly and I have had this conversation a lot, Gil,
Speaker 1: especially with the top ten to fifteen players in the world,
Speaker 1: you can have target numbers on these guys when they
Speaker 1: drift to a certain number. Justin Thomas's number for me
Speaker 1: is anything north of twenty five to one. It's like
Speaker 1: an autopl man point ye, yeah, absolutely, And look he
Speaker 1: you know, has never really been right in the hunt here.
Speaker 1: He's got a couple of really good finishes. The approach
Speaker 1: plays dipped a little bit, but he's been great around
Speaker 1: the green this year. He also has Bones McKay, Jim
Speaker 1: Bones McKay on the bag who won this thing three
Speaker 1: times of course with Bill Mickelson. So Justin Thomas, once
Speaker 1: he got up to above twenty five, he was an
Speaker 1: AutoPlay for me. Tony Fee now who I have just
Speaker 1: a little bit less than thirty to one, Top five,
Speaker 1: all four majors, top ten in actually ten, top tens
Speaker 1: in the twenty six that he's played. The difference with
Speaker 1: Fee now now and Matt Brown, Kelly and I talk
Speaker 1: about this on long shots all the time is win equity.
Speaker 1: Who wins? You know, who gets you some wins? And
Speaker 1: I know Kelly has played a lot of Sam Burns
Speaker 1: and a lot of Max Homa because they have win equity.
Speaker 1: Will so does Tony Fee. Now he's won three times
Speaker 1: since the Open Championship last summer. This is a new thing.
Speaker 1: We can say, yeah, because remember he didn't win for
Speaker 1: like five years after he won that Puerto Rico opened.
Speaker 1: So Tony Fee now twenty nine. Colin Marikawa, who I
Speaker 1: got at thirty four to one at Cercin. He's still
Speaker 1: drifting upwards so apparently not drawing a lot of interest.
Speaker 1: He has friendless in the market as our friend Dan Weston. Yes,
Speaker 1: yes he is, but I'll be his pal. He has
Speaker 1: not won in eighteen months anywhere. He won in Dubai
Speaker 1: for the DP World Tour Championship at the end of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. But one of the world's best iron players.
Speaker 1: Second on approach, fourth on ball striking, fourth tee to
Speaker 1: green last thirty six rounds. So Colin Maracawa for me,
Speaker 1: Sun jay N that was one that I had just
Speaker 1: bet on a drift. I got him at forty four
Speaker 1: to one. Hasn't really done anything wrong this season, but
Speaker 1: just hasn't contended except at Tory Pines, where he was
Speaker 1: fourth earlier this year ye but second on debut here
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, was eighth last year. So, like you say,
Speaker 1: predictive course, go with guys that play well here every year,
Speaker 1: and soon Jam pretty much does. Another guy that does
Speaker 1: a Sideki Matsiyama, who I wasn't gonna bet, but I
Speaker 1: saw him at fifty to one. I'm like, man, this
Speaker 1: could feel like a Matza Yama week, who is probably
Speaker 1: putting the best he's putted his entire career, and seven
Speaker 1: of his eight PGA Tour wins are on ben grass,
Speaker 1: so I think he's gonna like these greens and won
Speaker 1: this tournament with one of the more iconic moments ever
Speaker 1: with a nod from the caddy. Oh yes, one of
Speaker 1: my favorite moments of sports in sports. Yeah, look, and
Speaker 1: I know he's been battling a little bit of a
Speaker 1: neck injury, but it looks like he's good to go.
Speaker 1: But Mazzi Yama is almost It's almost like Tom Brady
Speaker 1: with Bill Belichick. Like Tom Brady was always listed on
Speaker 1: the injury report, but you knew he was gonna play.
Speaker 1: I think that's the deal with Matsiyama. I didn't go
Speaker 1: if many bombs because the average price of the winner
Speaker 1: over the last ten years is like twenty seven to one,
Speaker 1: so you can't go that deep, even though I played
Speaker 1: one deeper. Guy Men Woolee ninety five to one. Men
Speaker 1: woo Lee, he finished T fourteen last year, actually shot
Speaker 1: thirty on the front nine and then forty on the back,
Speaker 1: so he missed out getting a return invite by one shot,
Speaker 1: but he gets back in being in the top fifty
Speaker 1: in the world. So Men Wu ninety five to one
Speaker 1: at Circus Sports. If you're here in Vain, let me
Speaker 1: just before we get to Kelly's, and then I'll ask
Speaker 1: you about specific golfers. A couple of the names you mentioned.
Speaker 1: Tony Fenew point out Joe pet who has been on
Speaker 1: this Master's Preview many years but was not really diving
Speaker 1: into golf these days. He did write the The Real
Speaker 1: the Bible on Analytics at Augusta, which is not which
Speaker 1: is not public domain information. It's proprietary. He had to
Speaker 1: do the digging on this and Tony Fenew in that
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen Tour guide was the guy who came out
Speaker 1: with the best metrics on this course. So that's a
Speaker 1: nod for your Tony Feedelle pick. And the other one
Speaker 1: is Kelly and I talked about that this morning on
Speaker 1: a Numbers game. Dave Tindall who's been on this Master's
Speaker 1: Preview before at Dave tindal Golf on Twitter, who writes
Speaker 1: for Betfair. He does his like we do our college
Speaker 1: basketball formula West he does his Master's formula where he
Speaker 1: goes through the age of the golfer the world, ranking
Speaker 1: their appearances and their placements at Augusta before how what
Speaker 1: their recent form is, their lowest Augusta around. You know,
Speaker 1: Strokes gained around the Green on and on with his
Speaker 1: different categories. And Jordan Spieth was the guy that came
Speaker 1: up as the main guy just nipping Rory. So shout
Speaker 1: out to your Jordan Spieth call as well, Kelly, what
Speaker 1: do you got? Yeah, I'll start, I'll start right right
Speaker 1: where WestEd with Justin Thomas. This was a it's not
Speaker 1: a smaller, it's not a bigger bet for me this week,
Speaker 1: and it is a little bit of a smaller for
Speaker 1: an outright, but West, I can't say much more perfectly
Speaker 1: than West. Twenty five to one is about my breaking
Speaker 1: point where I was. I was kind of tracking them
Speaker 1: all week. Do I have him way to blow a
Speaker 1: few other guys? Yeah, but he drifted to twenty six
Speaker 1: to one here at Circle in Town. I finally pulled
Speaker 1: the trigger last night. It's a bet I had to make.
Speaker 1: I think he summed it up all pretty well. West,
Speaker 1: not not exactly so many times he could have. It
Speaker 1: felt like he could have finished better here at the Masters.
Speaker 1: But he's still if you just look at it long term,
Speaker 1: still one of the best, most consistent players at this
Speaker 1: course when we talk course history for all these guys,
Speaker 1: he was top thirteen all the models I ran. Not really,
Speaker 1: as you point out, West, not really nice spiking anywhere
Speaker 1: consistently with some of the stats that we often look at.
Speaker 1: But we've seen JT do this before. He gets hot
Speaker 1: this week with those irons or with the putter, because
Speaker 1: even his iron plays been a little bit down, he
Speaker 1: gets hot with one of those. I think he's right
Speaker 1: up there. In contentions of twenty six to one is
Speaker 1: where I guess I started from the short end. I'm
Speaker 1: going short along here. Maxhoma, thirty six to one. Maxhoma,
Speaker 1: you and I were texting yesterday West if he wins
Speaker 1: or Gail will You and I were texting yesterday about it.
Speaker 1: If he wins, you might be gone for a while.
Speaker 1: I might be gone for a while. Sean McColl might
Speaker 1: be doing a numbers game for a couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: And this mainly just because his number keeps drifting. I
Speaker 1: understand that this is a guy who has not had
Speaker 1: a ton of success at Augusta National three years. He's
Speaker 1: had two missed cuts. It was a t forty eight,
Speaker 1: I believe is what he finished yet forty eight last year.
Speaker 1: But the one thing you have to keep in mind
Speaker 1: about Maxhoma is that he's thirty two thirty three years old,
Speaker 1: has been playing on the tour for a while now.
Speaker 1: But he is not the same golfer that he was
Speaker 1: three years ago. This guy's game has completely changed. He
Speaker 1: is elevated into an upper class of players on tour,
Speaker 1: and it as much as course in tournament history mean here,
Speaker 1: I'm not throwing it out the window. I'm not saying that,
Speaker 1: But I'm saying this kind of number in a condensed
Speaker 1: field on what I consider one of the better golfers
Speaker 1: in the world. Is it's my favorite outright bet that's
Speaker 1: out there that's available. I think even we got thirty
Speaker 1: six to one here in Town of the Circa, I've
Speaker 1: seen thirties though East Coast. I think anything in the thirties,
Speaker 1: I think it's silly on a guy with this level
Speaker 1: of talent. Uh here he was, Um, you know he's one.
Speaker 1: We're talking about win equity, the same thing between the
Speaker 1: Tony Fenel, the bast year and a half. The guy's
Speaker 1: won four times on tour. He's way he has more
Speaker 1: wins than he does second and third place finishes combined.
Speaker 1: And if you've followed my golf betting at all, you
Speaker 1: know how many second place finishes I have. So throw
Speaker 1: those out the window. Let me get a winner. Actually,
Speaker 1: so he's the guy looking at He was third in
Speaker 1: my last twelve bottle third, third in the field and
Speaker 1: approach first first and h strokes game par fours can
Speaker 1: be very important this week. Um. So that is the
Speaker 1: two guys that I have bet where numbers are basically
Speaker 1: similar to what I grabbed Okay then as West and
Speaker 1: home Maxihoma and justin Tim just As West will lay
Speaker 1: it out. This is Matt Masters betting. I think it's
Speaker 1: very important if you're a golf better like we are,
Speaker 1: to scoop up numbers along the way, as you see him.
Speaker 1: So I do have other bets at longer numbers you're
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to get now, Corey Connor's eighty five,
Speaker 1: I have. I have the two guys that won last
Speaker 1: week West, I have Brooks Keptka and Corey Connors. Somehow
Speaker 1: Corey Connors eighty five to one and Brooks Kepka ninety
Speaker 1: nine to one made them forever. Yeah, Like, if you're
Speaker 1: betting Brooks right now at thirty three or thirty five
Speaker 1: to one, you're not. You're late to the part. Can't
Speaker 1: do that. You're You're late right now. So if you
Speaker 1: scooped it early, good on you. Brooks Kepta now the
Speaker 1: first man to win two live events. Obviously a short
Speaker 1: sample size, but yeah, I think you're too late. Don't
Speaker 1: don't be late to the party in early for the funeral,
Speaker 1: as our buddy Will Hill likes to say, and I
Speaker 1: would say the same thing about Connors and then I
Speaker 1: and then the other one that I have is I mean,
Speaker 1: I love that I have this one is Jason Day
Speaker 1: and eighty five to one because I really grab that
Speaker 1: as he was kind of moving upward. But I'm with you,
Speaker 1: I would not bet him were his numbers at right now,
Speaker 1: with what we saw with the vertigo stuff him in
Speaker 1: those low twenties. It concerns me he could he could
Speaker 1: easily go out and win this thing, or he could
Speaker 1: be a w D after six holes of golf. I
Speaker 1: don't really know what Jason Day is gonna look like
Speaker 1: out here this week, So I'm just riding with that
Speaker 1: one out right with the only two that I have
Speaker 1: Scottie Chefler, I did take a pre flop number, not
Speaker 1: the best number, plus eight forty five, But I said
Speaker 1: a year ago on a numbers game, I feel like
Speaker 1: he's the one guy you should have every golf tournament
Speaker 1: in some form, and maybe your strategy of getting him
Speaker 1: in tournament is better, but I won't remember. So I
Speaker 1: have him here, and then the other one is home
Speaker 1: at thirty five fifty but plus thirty five and a
Speaker 1: half to one. So because I think, just like you
Speaker 1: when you look around golf Golf's landscape. If it's not Scottie,
Speaker 1: Scheffler or John ram As the guys you can always
Speaker 1: count on Rory as well. Max Holme was on that shortlist.
Speaker 1: Right He's been unbelievable. He's in that next He's in
Speaker 1: that next crowded and we had a couple of guests
Speaker 1: on numbers game dropping today on Tuesday. Drop drop another
Speaker 1: name that I kind of cringed when I hear when
Speaker 1: I heard it, because he just missed out on my
Speaker 1: outray card and I was kind of trying to decide
Speaker 1: between adding him or trying to do something with Scheffler,
Speaker 1: which I'm now going to go down the Scheffler road
Speaker 1: because I do think when you're betting guys at seven
Speaker 1: to one, you can only bet so many outrights, so
Speaker 1: Patrick can't lay. I have rated very high this week,
Speaker 1: but he falls in the same kind of arguments as
Speaker 1: of Max Homa. He's not a guy that's necessarily come
Speaker 1: to Augusta and performed amazing year after year. Yes, he
Speaker 1: has some good finishes here here, but he's also had
Speaker 1: some bad finishes as far his recent form. Right now,
Speaker 1: he's he is right right blow Scottie Scheffler. He is
Speaker 1: one of my highest rated guys in this field, so
Speaker 1: I didn't bet an outright on him. And I know
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to other bets, but I have a
Speaker 1: massive top twenty betal Okay, but I'm glad you said
Speaker 1: that about like you can't bet everybody for those who
Speaker 1: are new to golf betting. And Matt Brown even says,
Speaker 1: this is the host of your of your podcast long Shots,
Speaker 1: he went through a spell back in the day betting
Speaker 1: golf where he lost a lot of them, like he
Speaker 1: did the inventory on his golf bets. He's like, oh,
Speaker 1: I'm getting murdered because I have too many outrights. So
Speaker 1: you're right, like, you can't bet everybody. You gotta pick
Speaker 1: and choose on this, so you can't like if you
Speaker 1: have HOMA and can't lay on everybody else, you're probably
Speaker 1: you probably got to edit that. On the other hand, right,
Speaker 1: like you eyes already talking about because this is my
Speaker 1: favorite question to ask of golf shows. There's a guy
Speaker 1: and I'll ask it of you right now as you
Speaker 1: guys are talking about Justin Thomas. In my head, all
Speaker 1: I'm thinking is, man, these two are right. If Justin
Speaker 1: Thomas wins this, I'm going to hate myself because he's
Speaker 1: the one guy that I consider betting in addition to
Speaker 1: the two that I already have, and I haven't pulled
Speaker 1: the trigger on it yet, so less I want to
Speaker 1: ask you the question which I love asking, which is
Speaker 1: which is the guy that, if he wins this tournament
Speaker 1: will create the most self loathing in you, Like you
Speaker 1: just don't have bets. You're not going, as far as
Speaker 1: you can tell right now, you're not going to have
Speaker 1: bets on him. Maybe Zander Shole exactly what the answer
Speaker 1: we got this morning from Sia, who I have bet
Speaker 1: you know, many many times, and I'm a big fan
Speaker 1: of his, and he's got he's got a lot of
Speaker 1: like backdoor top ten's. He's been at least in the
Speaker 1: mix a couple times to win a major, and that's
Speaker 1: one thing like Patrick Cantley, who is eventually going to
Speaker 1: win multiple majors, hasn't done. Max Homer, I think could
Speaker 1: be fair to point out with him, he's never really
Speaker 1: been right there. The win equity thing, Yes, it's that,
Speaker 1: and it's also the fact of just having experience at
Speaker 1: major's having a little bit of pain because I think
Speaker 1: you know, it's very rare that a guy like wins,
Speaker 1: you know, your first time out in a major, like
Speaker 1: kind of like Marikawa did at Harding Park a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago for the PGA. He's just destroyed. Everybody
Speaker 1: was waiting for him to collapse, and he never did. Usually,
Speaker 1: you know, you got to have a little bit of pain,
Speaker 1: you got to come close and then fail before you
Speaker 1: can end up winning. So Xanderschofle won for me because
Speaker 1: it's been like, I bet this guy so many times
Speaker 1: and majors and he's got top fives and top tens
Speaker 1: out the wazoo, but he's never won. So I think
Speaker 1: that's the one that scares him. That's a pretty common
Speaker 1: answer that question, I would imagine I'll ask you Kelly too,
Speaker 1: But the Morikawa thing sticks out too, because why is
Speaker 1: it like one of my biggest memories of that is
Speaker 1: just what you're talking about. After the tournament, he's like,
Speaker 1: I've played Harding Park a million times and it's just
Speaker 1: like any random parking lot. Right in He's out there
Speaker 1: with his girlfriend sitting on the back of his car
Speaker 1: after he just won a Harding Park like it was
Speaker 1: anothering Like how did you not get nervous about any
Speaker 1: of this. Ye, who's your guy for that question? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm loving that everybody's bringing up Xander because, Okay, well,
Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say that if everything that
Speaker 1: I just said about Patrick can't lay and if I
Speaker 1: end up going down the Scottie Scheffler route and not
Speaker 1: betting him, yes, it might answer then has to be
Speaker 1: can't lay if he wins and I don't have an
Speaker 1: outright bet on him. Now again, I have bet him
Speaker 1: in other ways, but missing out on that outright would suck.
Speaker 1: But I'm right there with the rest of these guys
Speaker 1: that the other answer would be Xander. Softly, because you
Speaker 1: have sat here week after week is I've gone through
Speaker 1: my golf bets and Xander has made my card almost
Speaker 1: every week for the past few months. I finally, finally,
Speaker 1: you know, he got away from him the past week
Speaker 1: or two when his plays kind of been on the downside.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm pretty I stick to my model as
Speaker 1: a fair amount. His last twelve last twelve round model
Speaker 1: I ran, he is fiftieth in it five zero eight.
Speaker 1: He is usually like top ten in everything that I run.
Speaker 1: So it just speaks to a little bit of so
Speaker 1: I mean it was nineteenth of players, thirty ninth at
Speaker 1: the API, thirty third at the Genesis US losing strokes off.
Speaker 1: The team has past two events. That concerns me at
Speaker 1: the Master's where that's a place you need to be gaining.
Speaker 1: He's not the longest driver of the ball. That always
Speaker 1: helps here, but still he's got his game is so good, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that it would not surprise me if he went out
Speaker 1: in one. And I'm not going to have a bet
Speaker 1: on him, and in nothing that anybody says will change
Speaker 1: my mind on him. And I'm glad you mentioned that
Speaker 1: too because of modeling, and I think we'll get into
Speaker 1: this more on long shots with Matt Brown. This was
Speaker 1: a tough event to model, yep, simply because you have
Speaker 1: eighteen live players. Yeah, and you don't have a ton
Speaker 1: of data. I know our friend Rick Gaiman at Rick
Speaker 1: run Good has some live data, but it's more of
Speaker 1: an estimate. It's not something that live actually puts out.
Speaker 1: So that was the big other MAC question we asked
Speaker 1: on a Numbers game this week, which is what do
Speaker 1: you do about the live golfers without that kind of data,
Speaker 1: Like you just mentioned, brooks Chepicast just won an event
Speaker 1: that's his second live win, but he just wanted he's
Speaker 1: had great obviously great success here. That's an understatement here
Speaker 1: at Augusta. Do you read into that or do you
Speaker 1: just kind of like, I got my number, that's great.
Speaker 1: But anybody who's taken into this number now like it's
Speaker 1: too dicey for you to do that. There's not enough
Speaker 1: to go on. I approach the live guys basically. I
Speaker 1: don't think I have an outright on any of them,
Speaker 1: but I approach or I am going to approach them
Speaker 1: more in like the placement markets, and I've did a
Speaker 1: couple of prop markets too, because you get a lot
Speaker 1: of props this week of course nationality prop low Amateur,
Speaker 1: low left hand or low debutante. And I did play
Speaker 1: one live player this week. I played Meto Pereira for
Speaker 1: low debutante and low South American, which means he basically
Speaker 1: has to beat his bellow Chile and Joauque Nieman because
Speaker 1: the third guy is an amateur. So that's what I played.
Speaker 1: Because I looked at Mito Perera, I was like, hey,
Speaker 1: this guy's guy, you know, a six and a fifth
Speaker 1: and his two of his last three live events. So
Speaker 1: at least he's up there. Because that's the thing about
Speaker 1: live what we've seen so far, you don't get that
Speaker 1: consistency with a lot of guys. Every once in a while,
Speaker 1: DJ is going to show up and be right there,
Speaker 1: and every once in a a while he's going to be
Speaker 1: in the middle of the pack. So you can never
Speaker 1: really know, I think, because you just don't get that
Speaker 1: consistency that you get on the PGA Tour if you're
Speaker 1: playing week after week, or the DP World Tour for
Speaker 1: that matter, where it's like top ten, top fifteen, top ten,
Speaker 1: top five. You know where you're putting all those strings.
Speaker 1: That's I think why both of us ended up Bett
Speaker 1: and Jason Day at various points because he was like
Speaker 1: in the money on the first page of leaderboard, like
Speaker 1: every every week. Yeah, but you don't get that with
Speaker 1: a lot of these live guys because the schedule is
Speaker 1: so erratic. All right, let's let's do some of the
Speaker 1: other Oh I was just for live for me, I'm
Speaker 1: I'll say a couple of things just real quick. Yeah.
Speaker 1: West has Look, I'm sure there are more others that
Speaker 1: have watched more out there. West has probably watched twenty
Speaker 1: times more live golf than I have. And that's if
Speaker 1: he spent twenty minutes watching it. He's right because that's
Speaker 1: about what I spend this week getting to be honest
Speaker 1: with you. But let me do the math. Kelly has
Speaker 1: watched one minute, I got got it. So what's fascinating
Speaker 1: to me is I think mostly everybody I've talked to
Speaker 1: that that I respect in the golf betting community has
Speaker 1: pretty much had similar answers of the look, hey, unless
Speaker 1: unless numbers really drift on guys I'm staying away from
Speaker 1: because there's just not enough. There's not enough data. There's
Speaker 1: not enough that's data. Even if we had data supplied
Speaker 1: by by liv Right, we don't even get that statistical data,
Speaker 1: but they just don't. We haven't even seen these guys
Speaker 1: play that much. So it's even if you're trying to
Speaker 1: do the eyeball test, I think it's tough to do.
Speaker 1: But Gilt's the number one question I have gotten tweets
Speaker 1: about over the past two weeks. What you know different
Speaker 1: props are listed for live golfers and the masters, all
Speaker 1: these things. It's the number one subject I've been tweeted about,
Speaker 1: asking questions about how I'm approached because nobody knows the answers.
Speaker 1: One more thing to add on this too, because I
Speaker 1: asked Jeff Davis, who's the head golf odds make or
Speaker 1: at Circus Sports here in Las Vegas, and he said,
Speaker 1: you know, that's a good question about these live guys.
Speaker 1: But DJ is getting support. Yeah, Like DJ's getting the
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt, of course, because he won a
Speaker 1: green jacket here in the COVID the November Masters of
Speaker 1: twenty twenty. But yet with Cam Smith, he says, we
Speaker 1: can't write a bet on him, which we're not getting
Speaker 1: any which is pretty fast. So I heard, I don't
Speaker 1: know how much have you watched some of the Masters
Speaker 1: press conferences yesterday? Tip of the cap to Cameron Smith
Speaker 1: for being the only live golfer that would speak to
Speaker 1: the mass the mass media press conference. Okay, but he admitted, like,
Speaker 1: you know, it's I think some of these guys are
Speaker 1: being more open and honest about hey, what this money
Speaker 1: does to you and changes your life. And he talked
Speaker 1: about taking a very long time off of golf here
Speaker 1: recently and enjoying time with friends and family before they
Speaker 1: kind of started up the new live season. That concerns
Speaker 1: me for a guy, you know, when some of these
Speaker 1: guys on the PGA Tour have been playing week in
Speaker 1: and week out for the past three months. A guy
Speaker 1: like that taking that much time off concerns me. Matt
Speaker 1: Brown fired back on me a couple of weeks ago
Speaker 1: when I brought up, well, I'd probably looking at some
Speaker 1: of the younger guys who've got a long career ahead
Speaker 1: of them, like a Medo, Pereira, Walking Nieman and Abraham answer.
Speaker 1: But you know, his retort to that was, well, or
Speaker 1: those guys are just collected fat cash and they're young
Speaker 1: mid twenties living the life now, Like, what's the motivation
Speaker 1: for them to be out on the driving range every day?
Speaker 1: I think it's a fair point, absolutely, Tiger Tiger brought
Speaker 1: that up. What's the incentive to practice? Yeah, yeah, what's
Speaker 1: the incentive to really get in the dirt when you're
Speaker 1: getting that kind of money? But simply based off of
Speaker 1: historical perspective from the masters, like West said, if I
Speaker 1: had to bet one, it would be DJ. What do
Speaker 1: you This is a complete speculation because there's no static
Speaker 1: answer to this, and it probably depends on who the
Speaker 1: golfer is. But what would it take like for each
Speaker 1: of these guys talking about like in tournament bets. Now, Like,
Speaker 1: if DJ is lurking, let's use a broad term like that,
Speaker 1: lurking after the second round, are you jumping in right
Speaker 1: there on him? Or do you tend to wait till
Speaker 1: the final day? Obviously they say Saturday's moving day AUGUSTA,
Speaker 1: but there's nothing like but a tournament is one on
Speaker 1: the back nine on Sunday, right, So like, is there
Speaker 1: is such a tough question to answer, But is there
Speaker 1: a moment that you think is optimal to jump in
Speaker 1: on some of these guys or is there no way
Speaker 1: to answer that? Oh, you're just talking live outright. So
Speaker 1: I think that, I mean, I think for any golfer,
Speaker 1: I actually traded pretty similar to my NBA live betting.
Speaker 1: I think it's that kind of second quarter, third quarter times,
Speaker 1: the second round, third round time more in golf is
Speaker 1: a little later, I would say, after the cut is made,
Speaker 1: after the second round, start looking at it then. So
Speaker 1: after the second round or in the third round is
Speaker 1: a great time to look at guys live. But that's
Speaker 1: just a blanket statement on everybody. I don't think the
Speaker 1: live guys will make me think any more or less
Speaker 1: amount that. Yeah, then this won't be a Kiddi Yama
Speaker 1: situation where you're like, I can get him at plus
Speaker 1: three fifty, there's only two more holes of there won't
Speaker 1: be that available, probably correct. Yeah, And also if like
Speaker 1: golf outright, golf golf outright, like live betting, you do
Speaker 1: want to bet with the momentum oftentimes, and like your
Speaker 1: other sticking ball sports like basketball, like football, you want
Speaker 1: to play against the run. Sometimes I see people all
Speaker 1: the time, including people we know, it's like, okay, there
Speaker 1: was a big rush of points right away, over over over,
Speaker 1: and it's like, oftentimes you want to play against that.
Speaker 1: You know, you want to play against runs because all
Speaker 1: of a sudden you're getting that right number. Whereas in golf,
Speaker 1: you want to play on a guy that's maybe a
Speaker 1: little bit off the pace or a few holes ahead,
Speaker 1: and that's where you want to jump in on a guy.
Speaker 1: And I think it's gonna be tougher to do that
Speaker 1: this weekend because we're probably gonna get a lot of
Speaker 1: stops and starts. We're probably gonna get a lot of
Speaker 1: intermittent to play, and you know where this could go
Speaker 1: into Monday, So it's gonna be a lot harder because
Speaker 1: different guys deal with the weather differently. Like we were
Speaker 1: talking about Patrick Cantley. I just saw a tweet from
Speaker 1: our friend Jeff Feinberg, and he goes, I love Patrick Cantley,
Speaker 1: but my concern isn't the major's right, it's the fact
Speaker 1: that he often looks miserable when he's playing out there,
Speaker 1: and how is he gonna be when it's cold and wet?
Speaker 1: Patrick kiss some of these guys are gonna be like, Man,
Speaker 1: have we ever had a Masters go to Monday? A
Speaker 1: few years ago? I believe we did. I don't remember
Speaker 1: when the last one was. I'm trying. I don't remember
Speaker 1: it offhand at all. Yeah, because there did the COVID
Speaker 1: year go to Monday? Oh you know what, I would
Speaker 1: never if it didn't. Well, twenty twenty. I thought he
Speaker 1: ran away with it, didn't he, Dustin Johnson? He did,
Speaker 1: But we have a delay. Maybe you're right, Yeah, because
Speaker 1: I was trying because I felt like we've had one
Speaker 1: in recent years. So, uh, yeah, we don't. We don't
Speaker 1: get it necessarily. All that off, All right, Kelly, give
Speaker 1: whatever derivative bets you want to give here and then
Speaker 1: save some for long shots. Yeah, I'll roll through. Uh, look,
Speaker 1: can't lay top twenty. I already brought off. I'll just
Speaker 1: I'll just give I mean, I'll give him all out here.
Speaker 1: I don't really care. I think we're gonna have some
Speaker 1: different audiences. Um, can't lay Top twenty big, Tony Top
Speaker 1: twenty Big. I didn't play the outright, but I absolutely
Speaker 1: agree with what everybody's saying about fen Now. I actually
Speaker 1: think somehow he's like flying under the radar heading into
Speaker 1: this event too. Like he look back. He's still playing well.
Speaker 1: You know, I might not be winning events every week,
Speaker 1: but he's still been playing well. So I did play him.
Speaker 1: Top twenty Maxima, Victor Hovlin, Top twenties, Big on Homa
Speaker 1: and big on Hovel. I love Hovlin this week. I
Speaker 1: think he's another guy like Tony Feenow who's had good
Speaker 1: finishes here at Augusta. His game fits pretty well for
Speaker 1: it as long as he doesn't get too much in
Speaker 1: trouble around the green. Um. I think he's a good
Speaker 1: top twenty bet this week. I am staying away from
Speaker 1: betting out rates on him until I see him win
Speaker 1: an event, but I think he's a good top twenty
Speaker 1: play this week and then I did Keith. Mitchell's a
Speaker 1: guy I approached a little a little interestingly. He was
Speaker 1: very high up there in by Bottles, which he's been
Speaker 1: playing great, especially off the tea here this season, and
Speaker 1: I've bet him a few different times. He's only played
Speaker 1: the Masters once, so he doesn't really have that history here,
Speaker 1: so I'm trying to tread lightly and I'm kind of
Speaker 1: just going bigger going home with him. So I played
Speaker 1: a top ten on him at seven to one, and
Speaker 1: I played him in a couple of matchups. I played
Speaker 1: him over Kirk Kiddy Yama never played here before. I
Speaker 1: played him over Medo Pereira as well. So those two
Speaker 1: I played Keith top ten and then those two matchups
Speaker 1: I just mentioned other tournament matchups, I played Victor Hovland
Speaker 1: over Matt Fitzpatrick. Matt Fitzpatrick another guy. I don't want
Speaker 1: to say I'm necessarily fading this week buying betting on him,
Speaker 1: and I do think there are some matchup opportunities to
Speaker 1: bet against him. I don't think this is a perfect
Speaker 1: fit for his game. We've seen him struggling a little
Speaker 1: bit more here recently. I think that's a good matchup
Speaker 1: bet MAXI hooma, I took over Cameron Yell. I think
Speaker 1: Cameron Young's it's just another number playing on maxihlma though.
Speaker 1: I think Cameron Young's a good golfer. But I'm getting
Speaker 1: plus one twenty five on a tournament matchup on Homo
Speaker 1: over him. I gotta go with that bet. And then
Speaker 1: one you're gonna laugh at Yell, Gary Woodland minus one
Speaker 1: h two over Jatz posting I really didn't play it
Speaker 1: on having and then Tom Debutante, I don't know how
Speaker 1: he rated out for you Wes Taylor Moore, I bet
Speaker 1: I bet it over seven to one he. I was
Speaker 1: shocked actually, and how how Hiley he was rated in
Speaker 1: by models. They they've been getting support down at Circa
Speaker 1: for Taylor more because I asked about the rookies here
Speaker 1: so to speak, and they've been getting support by the
Speaker 1: way to clean one thing up. Nineteen eighty three was
Speaker 1: the last Monday finish that was Sevey seven four shot
Speaker 1: win over Tom or Tom Kit and bryand Crenshaw. So
Speaker 1: that surprises me that long ago for a Monday finish. Yeah, um,
Speaker 1: I have I'm gonna cherry pick golfers West. What derivatives
Speaker 1: have you been debutante. Why do we never have a
Speaker 1: debutant market in any other tournament but this one? I know,
Speaker 1: I know, because it's such a smaller feeling too. There's
Speaker 1: there's eighty eight because they don't have debutants necessarily in
Speaker 1: the US Open, because you're oftentimes getting random qualified. You
Speaker 1: have to qualify. That's yeah, yeah, so that's tough to do.
Speaker 1: But I played two in the debutante. One was Meto
Speaker 1: Pereira at six to one. Look in the last three
Speaker 1: live events fifteen, six and fifth, he's been top seven
Speaker 1: and driving distance in all of those events, fourth, second
Speaker 1: and first for greens and regulation in those last three events.
Speaker 1: And then I did play one longer one Adrian moronk
Speaker 1: at twelve to one, just because if you look, driving
Speaker 1: distance is gonna matter, and both Meto be Adrian Moron
Speaker 1: can absolutely bomb it off the tea. So I think
Speaker 1: that he takes better to see in this course the
Speaker 1: first time than the favorite, who is Tom Kim in
Speaker 1: the market. But Tom Kim looked a lot of things
Speaker 1: he does well, but he's not a real long hitter, right,
Speaker 1: so I think he might struggle the first time here.
Speaker 1: A couple other prop markets I played. I played a
Speaker 1: low amateur and I got it at plus one sixty five.
Speaker 1: The nineteen year old NCAA champion, Gordon's sergeant, who I
Speaker 1: made bet as a top forty two to make the cut.
Speaker 1: I think we actually have a chance with an amateur
Speaker 1: to make the cut here. Number one world amateur in
Speaker 1: the world plays at Vanderbilt right now. So Gordon's sergeant
Speaker 1: I played also played Brian Harman plus one ninety five
Speaker 1: for top lefty and it's a four player mark left. Yes, Yes, Harmond,
Speaker 1: Phil Carmen, Phil, Bubba Watson and Mike Weir are the
Speaker 1: four left Anders in the field. Harmon, by the way,
Speaker 1: two years ago a second after thirty six holes and
Speaker 1: then ended up finishing twelve. You know, I wouldn't consider Bubba,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't consider Weird. The only one I would consider
Speaker 1: against Harmon maybe is Phil. But then you look at
Speaker 1: Phil last week at the live of it, and he
Speaker 1: was like forty five? Is at a forty eight players?
Speaker 1: Is Mike Weir? And I apologize Canada for this, but
Speaker 1: is Mike were the most random of all Masters winners?
Speaker 1: He is? Look, he was a pretty solid player in
Speaker 1: those early two thousands. But this is a guy that
Speaker 1: I would have thought would have won more on the
Speaker 1: Champion PGA Tour Champions. Yeah, and he hasn't. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: that's why I went ahead and ignored him in that
Speaker 1: lefty market this week. But all I've done our props
Speaker 1: and outrights right now, the players round leaders, no, not yet,
Speaker 1: the placement markets and the matchups. By the way, depending
Speaker 1: on when you listen to this, yeah, I'll have out
Speaker 1: wednesday morning. Oh yeah, and that's I'll bring it up
Speaker 1: everywhere I bet first round leaders almost weekly. Feel free
Speaker 1: if you want to tweet at me and get and
Speaker 1: get those out, no problem, send them to you. I
Speaker 1: usually wait, though, until later on Wednesday, when I really
Speaker 1: have that weather kind of figured out. So at Kelly Bidlin,
Speaker 1: hit me up, I'll get those to him. Okay, last questions,
Speaker 1: We'll do it rapid fire on these. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: cherry pick golfers and you're gonna give your quick thoughts
Speaker 1: on them. One of the live golfers who has won
Speaker 1: this tournament, which we may have given I'm not even
Speaker 1: sure if it was here that we gave him a mention,
Speaker 1: or maybe it was on a numbers game. Patrick read nothing.
Speaker 1: You don't like any Patrick read here in a placement market,
Speaker 1: perhaps because he has at least shown, unlike some of
Speaker 1: the live golfers some form. Remember he was second at
Speaker 1: the Dubai Desert Classic and Rory made that put fifteen
Speaker 1: feet birdie. Because we were all catty, those of us
Speaker 1: that were insomniacs and up in the middle of the
Speaker 1: night watching this thing on Golf Channel. We were hoping
Speaker 1: we were going to get that Rory and Patrick Reid playoff,
Speaker 1: just for the tension, because of course that Rory was
Speaker 1: served lawsuit by Patrick Reed didn't really appreciate that. So
Speaker 1: it's like, yeah, you know, I'd love to see that tension,
Speaker 1: but Rory won. So Patrick Reid in a placement market,
Speaker 1: I think absolutely like top twenty, top thirty, but nothing
Speaker 1: for an out right I mean, he's a guy who's
Speaker 1: won here before twenty eight. I'm not going to be
Speaker 1: shocked if he did. He plays well when everybody is
Speaker 1: against him. Yes, well, yeah, you know, he tends to
Speaker 1: do that. I don't know if you coughed a note
Speaker 1: this morning. I guess he played a practice round by
Speaker 1: himself this morning. So I think Patrick Reid's approaching this
Speaker 1: it's not just live against the world, it's me against
Speaker 1: the world, right, So he is very ligitious. So that's
Speaker 1: probably why a lot of people don't like him. That
Speaker 1: sends to do it. You know, I'm just Columbia me
Speaker 1: with all the rest of the live guys. I haven't
Speaker 1: done anything with him, but I would not be shocked
Speaker 1: to see him in the mix real quick, just a
Speaker 1: few more Bryson Deshambo, who famously a couple years ago
Speaker 1: said I'm playing this like a par sixty seven. Obviously
Speaker 1: he is not in form. Nothing with Bryson, No, no,
Speaker 1: not at all, even though he did finish in the
Speaker 1: top half of the field last week in Orlando. But
Speaker 1: the last thing he's really been in the mix to
Speaker 1: win was the Long Drive Championship well, and he seems
Speaker 1: to be more interested in that than you know, being
Speaker 1: a great golfer. Is he still regularly doing that? I
Speaker 1: remember when he started, I didn't know if he was
Speaker 1: still doing he was in I think of his last
Speaker 1: fall he was second in the World Long Drive Championship. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's a guy gil I haven't I didn't even consider um,
Speaker 1: and I think the sports books are pricing him absolutely correct,
Speaker 1: Like there's one twenty five to one. Yeah, even spots
Speaker 1: where I would try to look to play against him
Speaker 1: in matchups, but it's like he's he's playing another fellow
Speaker 1: bum I'm bringing I'm bringing him up only because of
Speaker 1: the long distance in the weather and just because he
Speaker 1: needs to be mentioned a couple more. John Rum we
Speaker 1: have not mentioned once. I know he kind of seems
Speaker 1: to be of the three favorites, the one that's coldest
Speaker 1: on the board between Like you could totally argue for
Speaker 1: Scottie Scheffler, you could really really make the argument for Rory,
Speaker 1: and I think he still can for Rom. But about Ram,
Speaker 1: he has good finishes here, but he's never really been
Speaker 1: quite there in the mix. It's always been kind of
Speaker 1: like a battle of attrition where he's out a few
Speaker 1: groups ahead, or he contends early and then all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, you know, he shoots like a sixty seven
Speaker 1: on Sunday and it looks like he's right there where
Speaker 1: he was right in the mix to win, and he
Speaker 1: has dipped a little bit from his form. Because we
Speaker 1: talked about this in January February. It's like this guy's
Speaker 1: gonna win like ten events. Yeah, but he has just
Speaker 1: dipped a little bit, and I just think that that
Speaker 1: that's what it is right now. So I'm not going
Speaker 1: to discount as chances at all. He's got a huge
Speaker 1: chance highest finish here fourth the year that Patrick Reid
Speaker 1: won in twenty eighteen. Yeah, I still think he is.
Speaker 1: I still think he's the best golfer in the world,
Speaker 1: with the best, most well rounded game going. Right now,
Speaker 1: I'm a I'm just a little I'm a little hesitant,
Speaker 1: and look, those three guys long at the top where
Speaker 1: they're at. He still is a part of those big three.
Speaker 1: But when you're really picking, you know, we talked about
Speaker 1: already betting on one of them and then including other outrights,
Speaker 1: it's not like you can pick two put two of
Speaker 1: those guys, right, So he is. If I had a
Speaker 1: rate those three this week, he is probably third. Yeah,
Speaker 1: But I think there's like West, Maybe he'll disagree with me,
Speaker 1: but I think there he's another guy that's I don't
Speaker 1: think he's flying under the radar, because I don't think
Speaker 1: John rob Ever flies under the radar. Like I said
Speaker 1: about Tony Feenou. I think he's being a little bit
Speaker 1: disrespected in the marketplace because Okay, what's he really done?
Speaker 1: He finished thirty ninth of the API, and then he
Speaker 1: had the w D from the players. Right, that's one
Speaker 1: reason I think why, But it was it was a
Speaker 1: stomach bucker something. Right. Well, so it's not like it's
Speaker 1: an injury. It's okay, he hit the can too many times.
Speaker 1: I didn't want to play golf anymore. The can they can. Yeah,
Speaker 1: three wins and nine starts, by the way this year,
Speaker 1: and it does kind of feel like we're, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of like pushing himself side a little. So he
Speaker 1: withdraws from the players and then okay, he doesn't make
Speaker 1: it out of his grouping match play, but match plays
Speaker 1: a it's funky and it's it's not an easy environment.
Speaker 1: So I thought long and hard about that last night,
Speaker 1: Gil where I I just think the market isn't respecting
Speaker 1: him as much as they should right now. But I'm
Speaker 1: going to be looking at Scheffler when we're talking about
Speaker 1: those short shots, all right. And then lastly, last person,
Speaker 1: because I'm contractually obligated and he appears on the screen
Speaker 1: in front of us. You brought him up early, Eldrick,
Speaker 1: Tiger Woods, any anything ever. It is the Masters after all, right,
Speaker 1: and look, you know, I was asked about this. I
Speaker 1: was doing an interview with that Nashville radio station yesterday
Speaker 1: and they asked about Tiger. I said, I'm not going
Speaker 1: to bet it, but if you're asking me if he's
Speaker 1: gonna make the cut, yeah, he's gonna make the cut.
Speaker 1: He's made twenty three to twenty four. However, he's forty
Speaker 1: seven years old, and that just I don't know why
Speaker 1: that should have been obvious to me because we've been
Speaker 1: following him for over two decades, but it just kind
Speaker 1: of hits you. He's forty six seven like like that.
Speaker 1: That's amazing to me. And you know, just looking, I
Speaker 1: was looking to say, Okay, who is his who are
Speaker 1: his matchups? He's matched up? I think in a lot
Speaker 1: of the markets with Sergio Garcian it's basically like a
Speaker 1: coin flip on the price. I think. Actually they had
Speaker 1: him against Bryson Deshambo down at CERCA as well. So
Speaker 1: I'm probably not gonna have hardly any Tiger this week.
Speaker 1: I may have him in a matchup maybe like a
Speaker 1: top forty. I'm not gonna bet him to make the
Speaker 1: cut because he's almost two dollars yeah, yep, And that's
Speaker 1: a lot, and this weather can get funky and he
Speaker 1: could start hurting. And he's played one event this year.
Speaker 1: Granted he looked very good at Riviera. But I'm probably
Speaker 1: gonna avoid him all together. I will. I will say, no,
Speaker 1: you have to, of course you have to. And this
Speaker 1: is look I like these kind of terms where I'm
Speaker 1: probably not gonna have much action on him. So if
Speaker 1: he's in the mix at the end and I don't
Speaker 1: have anybody there, I'll be rooting hard for Tiger. Makes
Speaker 1: a sport better, there's no doubt about that. I agree
Speaker 1: with what West just said. I mean, we would have
Speaker 1: never thought he was gonna do what he did in
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, and he went went out and won the
Speaker 1: whole damp. His fifth Green jacket is fifteen. Itch is amazing,
Speaker 1: and he's dealing with all this injury stuff. We were
Speaker 1: all impressed with what he did at Riviera. Um, I
Speaker 1: can't bet the make miss price. I think that's price
Speaker 1: pretty accurately here. If anything, I would lean to him
Speaker 1: making the cut or that was a big deal last year. Yes, Um,
Speaker 1: I would lean towards him making the cut, but I'm
Speaker 1: not laying I think it's one sixty five. I'm looking
Speaker 1: at DraftKings. Yeah, one sixty five, that's even too high
Speaker 1: for me. Lower. Yeah, I'm not laying that. What I
Speaker 1: will do though, if he makes the cut, it's gonna
Speaker 1: probably be targeted against him in round three, round four
Speaker 1: and matchups, because that's when I'm gonna be concerned about,
Speaker 1: you know, all the injuries and surgeries he's had, Is
Speaker 1: that body gonna hold up for four straight days of
Speaker 1: all these all the time on the range, all the
Speaker 1: time on the course, and as West pointed out, this
Speaker 1: is another course where it's it's it's a little deceiving,
Speaker 1: the elevation changes, and this is a lot of a
Speaker 1: lot of walking for him over a long, tough course.
Speaker 1: I think round three, round four is gonna be the
Speaker 1: time to bet against him in matchups. Yeah, if he's
Speaker 1: lurking after a couple of rounds, though, I would I
Speaker 1: would love to like put a microphone in all he
Speaker 1: really and I gonna bet against Yeah? Yeah, well Tiger,
Speaker 1: would you have to ask about him? West did this
Speaker 1: whole podcast while wearing a green jacket. It should be
Speaker 1: pointed out, would you like to say jokingly that it
Speaker 1: was what year that you won the Masters nineteen eighty seven,
Speaker 1: because that's the year after Jack and no one remembers
Speaker 1: who Larry Miys, right, I, I you know, I think
Speaker 1: it was actually Larry mikes who, by the way, he
Speaker 1: is going to be playing his last Masters this year,
Speaker 1: Larry Miys, I believe he and Sandy lysle are retiring. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it was Larry Miys who broke Greg Norman's heart, which
Speaker 1: never breaks my heart, which never when Greg Norman gets
Speaker 1: his heart. Yeah, man, he wanted a playoff against uh
Speaker 1: Sevy and Norman. Jeez. Oh, I was one of the
Speaker 1: iconic Masters finishes ever man. Yes from the bunker, right, yes, yeah,
Speaker 1: from the bunker Larry Mice All right, thank you guys.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. Let's get you ready for your show
Speaker 1: which is coming up in less than an hour Long Shots,
Speaker 1: which Kelly and West Kelly Bidlin, West Reynolds they are
Speaker 1: doing Live with Matt Brown live on Vison at eleven
Speaker 1: am Pacific two pm Eastern here on a Tuesday, but
Speaker 1: that will be put on their podcast feed at long
Speaker 1: Shots available where all podcasts are distributed. Thank you, boys,
Speaker 1: Thank you, appreciate you. Enjoy good luck with all your
Speaker 1: Master's bets. Thanks for listening,