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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It was time for the long awaited, overdue celebration. Two comments, back,

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Speaker 2: get back.

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Speaker 3: Go back, get back, goes to win, not just to go.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from the test throwing in

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Speaker 2: job spectest.

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Speaker 4: I'm sitting at the Cats touchdown.

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Speaker 2: That's all we'll see.

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Speaker 4: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible, Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate command you want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are under way.

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Speaker 4: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybon,

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Speaker 5: and this is our Super Bowl fifty nine betting preview.

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Speaker 5: Today we're gonna build our Super Bowl six pack of

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Speaker 5: bets with the help of my co host, the Prime

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Speaker 5: Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. Coming off a good

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Speaker 5: week for both of us two and one. Uh, you

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Speaker 5: didn't striking distance here. I think you'd have to go

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Speaker 5: perfect five, three and oh here? But good stuff, And

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Speaker 5: how you feeling about the Super Bowl?

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Speaker 2: Good? It was a good conference ships the weekend.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 2: I think I went nine and two overall. My only

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Speaker 2: two assin were Nogare who let me down. He just

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Speaker 2: I don't know he was just a blocking cone the

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Speaker 2: entire game, which was unfortunate, but uh, I yeah, Goddard

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Speaker 2: came through Worthy scored worthy, rushing was easy. And then

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Speaker 2: I just had a bunch of live bets and the

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Speaker 2: Bills Chiefs game, I just kept betting Bills will go down,

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Speaker 2: I would bet them live, then I would bet the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs and just kept doing that. Just same same with

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Speaker 2: the Ravens Bills. I plan on doing that in this

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Speaker 2: game too. So if the Chiefs go down, we'll look

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Speaker 2: to bet them live. If the Chiefs go up, because

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Speaker 2: and I looked about the Eagles live and hopefully, as

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Speaker 2: most Chiefs games do, I'll be trying to kind of

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Speaker 2: just straddle the Chiefs like one to three point win

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Speaker 2: would be the goal. But here we are again with

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs in the Super Bowl again and a recent repeat.

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Speaker 2: If it wasn't for betting, I would not be looking

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Speaker 2: forward to the super Bowl. But luckily we can bet

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Speaker 2: on it, so of course I'll be looking forward to

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Speaker 2: having a bunk bunch of action on the game. And

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Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a competitive one, should

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Speaker 2: be close throughout. That's the one good thing with the Chiefs.

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Speaker 2: You might get tired of them, but more times than not,

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Speaker 2: they give you an entertaining game that's close.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and I mean so does sake on Bark with

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Speaker 5: these days. So that's really the matchup I want to see,

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Speaker 5: you know. It's we've had all this talk over the

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Speaker 5: past decade plus about.

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Speaker 4: You know, the running backs that they don't matter, and now.

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Speaker 5: We're going to test the theory because you got one

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Speaker 5: team propped up by its quarterback and another team that's

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Speaker 5: you know, really taken off to another level because of

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Speaker 5: a runner back. So I'm excited to see that matchup.

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Speaker 5: But we'll get into our six pack. Just want to

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Speaker 5: let all the listeners know, if you are watching and

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Speaker 5: listening on your phone and you want to instantly tail

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Speaker 5: any of today's picks, just visit the brand new Action

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Speaker 5: at Network dot com slash bet now.

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Speaker 4: That's Action Network dot com slash bet. Now.

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Speaker 5: We've got links for all the picks all in one

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Speaker 5: landing page and you can click those links on your

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Speaker 5: mobile device. It opens up your betting app with the

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Speaker 5: bet swip for that pick. Extremely convenient, great way to tail,

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Speaker 5: and it's all at Action Network dot Com slash bet Now.

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Speaker 5: All right, stuck, let's get into our Super Bowl six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 5: We got the Chiefs against the Eagles. Chiefs are considered

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Speaker 5: the road team. The Chiefs are favored by one and

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Speaker 5: a half. The total is forty nine six point thirty

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Speaker 5: pm Eastern on Fox. So we're gonna get Tom Brady

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Speaker 5: super Bowl right off the bat. Should be interesting to

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Speaker 5: say the least stuck. You are up first, so we'll

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Speaker 5: kind of break down the game as we go through

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Speaker 5: through our picks.

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Speaker 4: But where are you going first? All right?

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Speaker 2: My first pick of the Super Bowl Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Philadelphia Eagles first half plus one

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Speaker 2: and a half out there at fandel which is what

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Speaker 2: I played. Plus a half is fine too, but I

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Speaker 2: paid a little bit more for the plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half. Every point is important in the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: especially over the course of half, even more so when

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Speaker 2: you consider how slow Super Bowls have started historically. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if it's nerves or you know, no one

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Speaker 2: wants to make a mistake early on. First quarter unders

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Speaker 2: have been a good bet historically, but market's just that's

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Speaker 2: why this is at nine and a half. I think

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Speaker 2: five ten years ago probably would have been at ten

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Speaker 2: and a half. But and also you have Jake Elliott,

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Speaker 2: who you never know when he's gonna with on an

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Speaker 2: extra point. So having one and a half was worth

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Speaker 2: the price differential to me. So when this is the

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Speaker 2: bet I made last year too, I had San Francisco

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Speaker 2: first half, I'm like, why, I'm not trying to where

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Speaker 2: where do the Chiefs have an advantage in this game?

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Speaker 2: If I before we get the rosters position by position,

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Speaker 2: like offensive line, give give me the Eagles wide receiver,

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Speaker 2: Give me the Eagles running back, Give me the Eagles

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Speaker 2: defensive line. It's probably close, but I'll take the Eagles linebacker.

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Speaker 2: With Dean's injured, it's probably a wash. Secondary, I'll take

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Speaker 2: the Eagles across the board tight end. I'd even say, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, Kelsey in the playoffs is a different animal,

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Speaker 2: but it's pretty close. It's the quarterback and the coach yep.

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Speaker 2: And so I think the Eagles are a better team.

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Speaker 2: But what's most likely to happen in this game is

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Speaker 2: what happens in most Chiefs games, is that they're down

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Speaker 2: and Mahomes will find a way. If it's close, which

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Speaker 2: I think this will be and the adjustments in the

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Speaker 2: second half will probably favor Kansas City, just like they

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Speaker 2: did last year. And for what it's worth, like we've

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Speaker 2: seen the Chiefs in four Super Bowls since twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 2: Here's what's happened. Ten ten tight at the half. They

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Speaker 2: won thirty one to twenty, down twenty one to six.

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Speaker 2: They lost thirty one to nine, down twenty four to fourteen, one,

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Speaker 2: thirty eight, thirty five, and down ten to three, one

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Speaker 2: twenty five to twenty two. Last four super bowls have

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Speaker 2: not they have not held a lead at the half,

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Speaker 2: So I think just roster quality, you know, I think

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Speaker 2: the Eagles are the better team, so I'll take the

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Speaker 2: points in the first half. I do also think that

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Speaker 2: this Chief's defense, I think Specnel is probably gonna have

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Speaker 2: some good adjustments at the half. But the Chiefs defense,

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Speaker 2: I've been screaming this for a while, is overrated. They

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Speaker 2: benefited from so many injuries, opposing injuries all year long,

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Speaker 2: from Week two on almost every week, especially opposing offensive lines,

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Speaker 2: which is why I think the run defense is even

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Speaker 2: a bit overrated. And their run defense has been trending poorly.

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Speaker 2: But this defense, I think in general outside of like

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Speaker 2: spags and him dialing up blitzes, which we'll see how

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Speaker 2: Hurtz deals with that, especially as the game progress and

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Speaker 2: there's more pressure drives. But I think this defense is vulnerable.

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Speaker 2: I think the Eagles defense is elite, and they've shown that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yes, they had an easy schedule, but I

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Speaker 2: just go back to games against Cincinnati Baltimore where you

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Speaker 2: could really see the quality against great competition. So I

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Speaker 2: like the Eagles in the first half. It's interesting. I well,

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Speaker 2: we'll talk about props and break down the matchup a

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Speaker 2: little further as we go through some of our bets,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, I'll take the points in the first half.

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Speaker 2: The way I see this playing out, it's similar to

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Speaker 2: San Francisco Kansas City last year.

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Speaker 5: Given that, and I do agree with you to an extent.

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Speaker 5: Last year, you had the Eagles first half and I

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Speaker 5: had Chiefs full game. So I'll just give that pick

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Speaker 5: out now. It's not going to be one of my

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Speaker 5: two pointers. But let's just talk about this right now.

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Speaker 5: So I'll go chief the money line for the purpose

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Speaker 5: of the show, since that minus went twin five, as

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Speaker 5: is your first half bet. But Patrick Mahomes twenty eight

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Speaker 5: nine to one against the spread, is a favorite by

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Speaker 5: three or more, or an underdog winning by four point

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Speaker 5: four points covering excuse me, by four point four points

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Speaker 5: per game nine to two in the postseason. Some ways,

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Speaker 5: I think that the Chiefs are going to have to

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Speaker 5: win here. Number one RPOs. I think that's an advantage

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Speaker 5: where Philadelphia's defense has been good overall against RPOs, but

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Speaker 5: more so against runs. Against passes, they're just fifteenth in

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Speaker 5: success rate. We've been seeing the Chiefs do a lot

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Speaker 5: more of that lately, and I think if you look

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Speaker 5: at what this Chiefs offense has to do, I think

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Speaker 5: the fact that they have been getting the ball out

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Speaker 5: quicker does help a little bit. I thought that, you know,

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Speaker 5: looking at that Philly Washington game, that Washington was hanging

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Speaker 5: around there if it wasn't for the turnovers, like it

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Speaker 5: was a struggle. But you could see that with a

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Speaker 5: good with a quarterback who could make some throws, who

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Speaker 5: could evade some pressure, that you know, they were kind

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Speaker 5: of hanging in there, and then it was just they

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Speaker 5: he just couldn't overcome those turnovers.

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Speaker 4: So I expect the Chiefs obviously to be better in

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Speaker 4: that area.

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Speaker 5: And I also think I'm not saying this necessarily is

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Speaker 5: going to translate, because I thought the Bills were kind

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Speaker 5: of idiotic in the way they kept calling their to

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Speaker 5: push and it's like always Gosh Allen to the left.

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Speaker 5: But the Chiefs did get a couple stops there. Commanders

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Speaker 5: did get a stop weight. I think it was on

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Speaker 5: a two point conversion against the touch pust So you

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Speaker 5: could have a situation where you make the Eagles think

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Speaker 5: about it a little more and maybe, you know, do

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Speaker 5: we handle off the saquon here? You do have the

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Speaker 5: issues with the Eagles interior line. Are they going to

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Speaker 5: be one hundred percent? That's big against Chris Jones. So

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Speaker 5: those are just some of the areas I think that

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs are going to have to take advantage of

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Speaker 5: in this spot, and I think they can. And then

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Speaker 5: I just look at Philadelphia's offense and I know we're

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Speaker 5: coming off the fifty five point just monster showing.

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Speaker 4: I don't think anything's wrong.

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Speaker 5: With Hurts or injury wise, as you know as much.

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Speaker 5: I think he definitely had some issues going latterly straight ahead,

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Speaker 5: he was he was fine, but I don't think it's

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Speaker 5: gonna majorly affect the game.

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Speaker 4: But if you look at just the playoffs.

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Speaker 5: You know, once Hurts came back, you know, I know

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Speaker 5: this first game was kind of the worst and he

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Speaker 5: got better. So kind of writing it off is okay,

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Speaker 5: just straight up rust. They're you know, coming off the concussion.

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Speaker 5: But if you just zoom out a little bit, Philadelphia

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Speaker 5: played a defense that was really good, great, you know,

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Speaker 5: in terms of metrics in the Packers. The Packers are

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Speaker 5: really defense had really come up down the stretch twenty

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Speaker 5: two points, you know, that kind of wall in between.

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Speaker 5: I think it was the first quarter when they got

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Speaker 5: that easy turnover and scored, and then you know into

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Speaker 5: the second half they really really where they started, you know,

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Speaker 5: putting away the game.

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Speaker 4: There was a big role there.

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Speaker 5: Second game gets like a mediocre defense in the rams,

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Speaker 5: that's when the Eagles, okay, twenty eight twenty two defense

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Speaker 5: almost let him down. But that was that was when

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Speaker 5: Hurts was just getting sacked a lot. I don't expect

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Speaker 5: that to happen indoors as much. But and then the

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Speaker 5: fifty five was against the Commanders, who combined just a

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Speaker 5: bad defense with turnovers. So keiefs I still put them

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Speaker 5: in that good Yeah, I know, you think they're would

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Speaker 5: over it. I still put them in that good group

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Speaker 5: like Coacher to the Packers, because the Packers didn't have

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Speaker 5: Jay Year and whatnot and lost some guys. But I

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Speaker 5: think that combined with the Spagnole gameplay and will be able.

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Speaker 4: To keep the Eagles to a respectable total.

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Speaker 5: And then it's just on the Chiefs offense, which I think,

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Speaker 5: you know, with this quick game, it's gonna be a struggle.

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Speaker 5: It's gonna be kind of I don't think there's gonna

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Speaker 5: be many explosives, but the fact that you have Worthy

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Speaker 5: and you have Brown, now you're gonna kind of make

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Speaker 5: them make some choices.

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Speaker 4: You know, do you put Cooper Degen on a guy

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Speaker 4: like Kelsey?

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Speaker 5: Do you put it? Do you just kind of play

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Speaker 5: it straight up? Do you do you do any shadowing?

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Speaker 4: You know? You know, do you play? How much man

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Speaker 4: do you play?

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Speaker 5: There's gonna be some You're gonna put some stress on this,

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Speaker 5: on this Eagle defense as well, and I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs kind of collecting his depth on the skill

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Speaker 5: put skill positions is going to help them compared to

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Speaker 5: a team like Washington, where it just seems like their

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Speaker 5: skill guys were just overmatched at the end of the day,

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Speaker 5: Like even even when they got catches, it was like, Oh,

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Speaker 5: we're just gonna target these guys and make them flumble.

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Speaker 5: And so that's kind of how I see the game

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Speaker 5: playing out. I think it will be a close game.

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Speaker 5: I don't think the stake one is as likely to

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Speaker 5: bust off a big run here, but he's still that's

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Speaker 5: still a danger, and I think I think that's where

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Speaker 5: Spags is going to come in, and you know, we'll

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Speaker 5: see if he what his best shot is. But I

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Speaker 5: do trust Bags in times like this, So I am

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Speaker 5: rolling with Kansas.

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Speaker 4: City on the money line.

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Speaker 5: Don't mind the one and a half either, because all

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Speaker 5: these games generally are three or more. But I'll take

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Speaker 5: the money line here. Kansas City minus one four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, homes eight to zer against the spread of the

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Speaker 2: straight up as a favorite of under a field goal

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Speaker 2: or an under dog in the playoffs. Pretty insane. You

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Speaker 2: mentioned Barkley, so part of me wants to fade Barkley

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Speaker 2: right across the ballard. Now, from a proper perspective, I think, like,

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Speaker 2: if you want to fade these really popular players, it's

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Speaker 2: best to wait until later in the week Thursday, Friday, Saturday,

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Speaker 2: sharper money will then come in on the unders, but

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Speaker 2: public has to say, and especially the most popular players.

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Speaker 2: But the reason I don't know if I'm gonna end

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Speaker 2: up doing it is because I do think that the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs run defense is overrated. But Number one, the Eagles

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Speaker 2: usually play from ahead, like all season long. Yep, right,

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Speaker 2: they're playing from ahead. Barkley's getting a lot of carries

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Speaker 2: in that game script, so this game they're much more

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Speaker 2: likely to be passing more. Number two, they don't usually

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Speaker 2: play another team that can control the ball like they do, right,

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Speaker 2: so time of possession, Like these are two time possession

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Speaker 2: monsters who can just have long drives that can either

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Speaker 2: keep Mahomes and or Barkley on the sideline. And then

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Speaker 2: number three, his numbers are, I mean they're I just

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Speaker 2: think that they're inflated because it's a Super Bowl. So

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Speaker 2: like under rush attempts, under longest rush, even under rushing yards,

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Speaker 2: they all jumped out to me as possibilities. Do you

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Speaker 2: have any thoughts on Barkley, Yeah, I'm.

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Speaker 5: About eight yards under his rushing prop just I think

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Speaker 5: the markets around one to fifteen. I'm around one o six,

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Speaker 5: one o seven, So definitely see some value there, and

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Speaker 5: then that would kind of translate into the longest rush

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Speaker 5: as well. And that's what it really comes down to,

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Speaker 5: because that's another thing, you know, is he going.

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Speaker 2: To break a long one, because then he probably he

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Speaker 2: probably goes over and then he goes over his longest rush,

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Speaker 2: Like they're all correlated.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, X all accept the attempts because if you get

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Speaker 5: along seven year run.

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Speaker 2: It hurts the attempts. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 5: But the interesting thing is, I mean, and this is

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Speaker 5: kind of where this game hangs in the balance, is

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Speaker 5: there's been you know, outside of the long runs, like

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Speaker 5: there has been stretches where Barkley has been contained by

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Speaker 5: pretty much all three of the defenses he's facing. The playoffs,

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Speaker 5: you know, it was it was just the long run.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Washington gives one up on the first play

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Speaker 5: of the game, just absurd. But you know, there's been

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Speaker 5: long stretches where a success rate has been down and

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Speaker 5: it's been a struggle.

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Speaker 2: So that's really well the whole entire game plans focused on.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So that's what I'm kind of, you know, anxious

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Speaker 5: to see, is you know, how how long can the

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Speaker 5: Chiefs kind of hold him and check because I would

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Speaker 5: think you know, if you if you can kind of

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Speaker 5: hold him to you know, in the first half, let's say,

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Speaker 5: without a long run, and actually, Ghetto, we that that

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Speaker 5: changes things to So I'm just interested to see how

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Speaker 5: the exactly the Chiefs are going to play it. I mean,

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Speaker 5: it's hard to control obviously, or everyone else wouldn't have

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Speaker 5: been gashed like this, But I just thought, I just

319
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Speaker 5: think it's interesting that it's for a guy averaging you know,

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Speaker 5: dismany yards for carry and and whatnot, the success rate

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Speaker 5: is actually a little bit lower than you'd expect. And

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Speaker 5: that's kind of what we've always known with Saquon is

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Speaker 5: that he's kind of a feast of famine guides. You know,

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Speaker 5: this offensive line has smoothed out a lot of the

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Speaker 5: issues here, but that the health of those guys in

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Speaker 5: the middle also kind of plays somewhat of a factor here.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I think just when how many and when

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Speaker 5: he's able to break a long run will go a

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Speaker 5: long way to determine it game. But yeah, all right,

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Speaker 5: before we get into our last two picks each, I

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Speaker 4: for your second pick?

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Speaker 2: All right? For my second pick of the Super Bowl

377
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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm going with Dallas Goddard over fifty

378
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 2: reception yards fifty plus minus one twenty two at Fandel.

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00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 2: You're probably gonna tell me the numbers inflated. I don't care.

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00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:57,000
Speaker 2: I love this matchup for Goddard. Fifties. You know, fifty

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Speaker 2: ish is probably it's really as high as I wanted

382
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Speaker 2: to go. Fifty to fifty one, I guess is fine,

383
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 2: but I like this for a few reasons. One, Goddard's

384
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 2: been on fire since he came back from injury. Looks

385
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 2: fully healthy. Is Over his past seven games, he's averaged

386
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 2: four and a half catches on five and a half

387
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: targets for fifty one and a half yards. Also mentioned

388
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:25,760
Speaker 2: game script like Philadelphia not as likely to be leading

389
00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 2: in this game as they have been, so you might

390
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 2: see more Hurts pass attempts. You also could see Kansas

391
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 2: City play Man, which they normally do. You know, above

392
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 2: average league great, especially in the playoffs. Goddard is a

393
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 2: monster against man, leads all tight ends in yards per

394
00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 2: route run nearly four yards per route run. Chiefs very

395
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:56,160
Speaker 2: good against outside receivers. They're probably gonna blitz a lot

396
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 2: play a out of Man. Hurt's gonna have to get

397
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 2: rid of the ball quickly. I think Goddard's to be

398
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 2: the recipient of that. And the Chiefs just aren't as

399
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 2: good at defending wide receivers or tight ends that aren't

400
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 2: on the outside. And Goddard he's going to line up

401
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,360
Speaker 2: just as on the in line a bunch and he's

402
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,239
Speaker 2: going to get a number of targets here. Even if

403
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 2: you look at games where Brown and Smith and got

404
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 2: it all played, which didn't think it was only about

405
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,359
Speaker 2: a third of their games. This year, Gotard was number

406
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 2: two in target rate, and Goddard mentioned this before the

407
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:34,679
Speaker 2: conference championship. He always shows up in playoff games. In

408
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 2: his eight career playoff games he has he's averaged six

409
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 2: catches on seven point eight targets for sixty four zero

410
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 2: point four yards median about five and a half catches

411
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 2: on six and a half targets for about sixty yards.

412
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: He's gone. I also bet hiss over catches as well,

413
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 2: just getting a little expensive out there, but he's gone over.

414
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 2: He's got at least five catches and six out of

415
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 2: eight playoff games, he's at at least fifty yards and

416
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 2: six out of eight playoff games. Chiefs are also bad

417
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 2: against tight ends. They allow about six receptions to tight

418
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 2: ends per game, so I think god it's gonna end

419
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: up with You're gonna get it. I think they're gonna

420
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 2: have to be some screens for him, some quick passes,

421
00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 2: and then I think he's probably gonna hit some explosives

422
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: as well, So I think he's gonna end up with

423
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, six ish catches on the day, which

424
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: I think should get him to at least fifty. I

425
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 2: know this prop is very popular. I kept getting messages

426
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 2: because all these sportsbooks are tweeting out Goddard is the

427
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 2: most popular prop. I was just tweeting about it the

428
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 2: entire conference championship game that we just get the bet

429
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 2: Goddard props again. So I apologize if I was driving

430
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 2: some of that, But yeah, I think Godard's in line

431
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 2: for a big, big day or games prize matchup wise,

432
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 2: and he always shows up in the playoffs. I think

433
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 2: he has a big day.

434
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 5: So I actually have him about fifty four average, so

435
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 5: the median right around right around that fifty number. So

436
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,639
Speaker 5: I actually don't think he's inflated. I think he's fairly priced,

437
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 5: which I mean for an over it's actually hard to

438
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 5: find in the Super Bowl because there's so much public

439
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 5: money coming in.

440
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are going to have something on both sides

441
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 2: of the ball that we're not expecting. Have two weeks

442
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 2: too to prepare, we're not expecting like last week it

443
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: was the Mahomes designed runs right, and that's part of

444
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: their what makes them great in the playoffs is they

445
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: kind of just do enough to win during the regular season.

446
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 2: And look, they're now healthier on the offensive side of

447
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 2: the ball, but they definitely hold some things back that

448
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 2: they don't need to show during the regular season, and

449
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 2: now with two weeks to prepare for this game, they're

450
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 2: going to see even more wrinkles. I was very intrigued

451
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 2: by what the Chiefs were planning on doing with the

452
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: offensive line with two weeks to prepare.

453
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 4: Themame same I thought at Zach.

454
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 2: But Reid came out and said Tony's gonna stay at

455
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 2: left tackle, which I was surprised because the Chiefs running game,

456
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: it's not like Tony has been amazing and he's getting

457
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,919
Speaker 2: help at left tackle. It stabilized a little bit. Mahomes

458
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 2: looks more comfortable with him there, but it's really hurt

459
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 2: their run game, Like their run game has become much

460
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:31,439
Speaker 2: less efficient with kali Endo at left guard and Tuny

461
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 2: at left tackle. But you know, being a bad tackle

462
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 2: situation can ruin the game. So I guess they feel

463
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,239
Speaker 2: more comfortable and that they might just mean that they

464
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 2: go more pass every year, which we've seen from Mahomes

465
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 2: in the playoffs in the past, but their their run

466
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 2: games definitely suffered with Tony kicking me out to left tackle.

467
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 4: That's a great segue.

468
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 5: Then for my second pick in the fourth overall of

469
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,879
Speaker 5: the Super Bowl fifty nine six, I'm going with the

470
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 5: Kansas City Chiefs under one fifteen and a half rushing yards.

471
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 5: You can find that at bet three six five. I've

472
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 5: seen it under ten one oh nine like that as well.

473
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 5: I have him actually projected for about one hundred rushing yards.

474
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 5: I think this line is inflated. You're essentially banking on

475
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 5: an explosive from somebody.

476
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 4: But let's look at this by the numbers.

477
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 5: So Kansas City has had one hundred and one or

478
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,719
Speaker 5: fewer rushing yards in exactly half of my home starts.

479
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 5: But the Eagles defense has been really good against the run.

480
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 5: They're allowing just one hundred and four point four per game.

481
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 5: Only five times have they given up more than one

482
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 5: hundred thirteen rushing yards in a game. And then, as

483
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 5: you mentioned it, Joe Toney run blocking grade at guards

484
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 5: seventy six point five according to PFF, that's top fifteen

485
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,679
Speaker 5: out of eighty three qualified guards. Once he went to tackle,

486
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 5: that dropped to fifty eight point nine, that would knock

487
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 5: him out of the top fifty. And then cali Endo's

488
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:00,400
Speaker 5: been even worse. You know, he just a fifty point four.

489
00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 5: So you go from you know, kind of a stronger

490
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 5: interior to just that left side really not being able

491
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 5: to run block at both spots. And as you mentioned,

492
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 5: that has hurt the run game here, and the fact

493
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 5: that they are going to continue to start tuning out

494
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 5: left tackle does kind of say.

495
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 4: You know, we know where our bread is buttered. It's Mahomes.

496
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 4: You know.

497
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 5: The Chiefs will have probably some creative concepts to get

498
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,440
Speaker 5: the run game going. They'll probably involve Worthy, maybe a

499
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 5: mystery skill player that we don't even know, maybe a

500
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 5: Marquise Brown, somebody with speed.

501
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 4: They'll try to get him a carry or two as well.

502
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 5: But it's been I've talked about Pacheco, it's been a

503
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 5: struggle for him, but his nump, his props are just

504
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 5: kind of squeezing it now, like they're down to five

505
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 5: and a half carries, which is I think where it

506
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 5: should be. So I'm taking the team here because you

507
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 5: have a few outs here. Number One, Chiefs win or lose,

508
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 5: probably need to have success in the passing game, might

509
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,640
Speaker 5: not lead as much as usual here that that.

510
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 4: Could affect it.

511
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 5: In addition to the tackles, you also have a situation

512
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 5: where if the Chiefs are winning, Mahomes and we've talked

513
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,919
Speaker 5: about this, he tends to have these long kneel downs

514
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 5: sometimes to waste clock or just to you know, get

515
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,680
Speaker 5: the ball, you know, to to get the offense in

516
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 5: the right spot. Wait in a game, and we've seen

517
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 5: in the playoffs is kneel down's yardage is about double

518
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 5: the loss it is in the regular season.

519
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 4: So there's quite a few ways for this to hit.

520
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 5: But just looking at it on the surface level, I mean,

521
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 5: you expect Mahomes to have, you know, probably.

522
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 4: Thirty ish rushing yards.

523
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 5: He'd expect Hunt to have forty forty five to check

524
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 5: O about twenty and maybe Worthy gets a carrier too.

525
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 5: That's not that's not getting up to one hundred and

526
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 5: ten hundred and fifteen rushing yards, so I think the

527
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 5: median eres is a lot lower. I think you're you're

528
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 5: really banking on like an explosive, probably buy Mahomes or

529
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 5: like a worthy even to get close to this, because

530
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 5: I don't think the running backs, especially with kri Endo

531
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 5: guard against this line with Carter on the inside and you.

532
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 4: Know all those guys. I just think it's going to

533
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 4: be really tough to run here.

534
00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 2: So Keith's under more if it's a blowout, which I

535
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 2: don't think we neither of us think it's going.

536
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 4: To be right, Yeah, yeah, exactly, So.

537
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 5: It's I mean, and yes, in some of the ball

538
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 5: I mean, Washington ended up running like what four or

539
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 5: five straight times at the end of the game with Ekuer.

540
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 5: I think they even got a first down doing it

541
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 5: last week. So even that it's like, you know, that's

542
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 5: going into Phillies defense, that kind of not indicative. So yeah,

543
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 5: like the Chiefs to go under their rushing yard age

544
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 5: one fifteen and a half at bet three six five.

545
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 2: All right, Well, that is a good segue into mine

546
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 2: because I have something similar scary. But for my third

547
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 2: pick of Super Bowl Sunday six pack. I'm going with

548
00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 2: Patrick Mahomes's longest rush under thirteen and a half yards.

549
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 2: I think this opened at some places at ten and

550
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 2: a half, which I thought was fair. But this is

551
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 2: a popular prop, so I think that this is one

552
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: where a lot of people are betting it and we're

553
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 2: getting some inflation. Oh well, I'm curious to ask you,

554
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 2: do you think that this is the peak or do

555
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 2: you think we could go higher?

556
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 5: It is popular, so I'm I mean, fourteen and a

557
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 5: half would be way like that would just be out there.

558
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 2: But I.

559
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 5: Don't have enough off the top of my head memory

560
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 5: to say, like Super Bowl or even I don't know

561
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 5: if we have enough data to say like this, they'll

562
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 5: climb even higher in Super Bowl props. But I could

563
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 5: because it's just so much public money. I could see

564
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 5: it get to fourteen and a half, but thirteen and

565
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 5: a half is already twenty. I have just you know,

566
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 5: projecting his normal numbers, and I'm actually a little over.

567
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 4: The market in his rushing yards.

568
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 5: But I told you, like all that factors in is

569
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 5: productive attempts yard and all that I have a sixty

570
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 5: one percent chance to go under thirteen and a half,

571
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:52,479
Speaker 5: So every yard in this market is crucial. So it

572
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 5: might not be the peak. There's a chance, but either way,

573
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 5: I wouldn't.

574
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 4: Hesitate to play this at thirteen and a half.

575
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've seen some people give reasonings like, oh, well,

576
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:07,239
Speaker 2: running quarterbacks have gone over this easily against the Eagles. Well, well,

577
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 2: they played the two best most mobile quarterbacks four times

578
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 2: in Lamar Jackson and Jane Daniels, who did have they

579
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 2: went over three of the four games, and they did

580
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: go they had, so they had rushes of at least

581
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: fourteen yards in three of the four games. But they

582
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 2: ran the ball thirty total times, and they only had

583
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: three rushes of more than thirteen and a half yards.

584
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 2: That's ten percent of their carries. If you look at

585
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 2: every other quarterback on the schedule, fifty four rush attempts,

586
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 2: and this includes some kneel downs, but that's in what

587
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 2: I'm going to get to. That's included in Mahomes's rush attempt.

588
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: Number one quarterback rushed for more than thirteen and a

589
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: half yards on fifty four attempts. So in total, they've

590
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 2: allowed four rushes of more than thirteen and a half

591
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 2: yards to opposing quarterbacks in eighty four carries. That's less

592
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 2: than five percent of the time. But if you just say, hey, look,

593
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 2: let's assume Mahomes is Lamar or Daniels, which he's not

594
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 2: mobility wise, he's not going to doesn't scramble as much,

595
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: he's not as fast, But let's just assume that he's

596
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 2: on their level running wise and volume wise, I think

597
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: he would need eight or nine carries. Now, you could

598
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 2: do it once and get it. If it's like a

599
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 2: third and seventeen, we've seen Mahomes do it. But I'm

600
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 2: just saying I think if you play this game out

601
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 2: hundreds of times, I think that he would normally need

602
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 2: eight ish carries to get this like he's probably he

603
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: would probably get it one out of every eight carries,

604
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: is what I'm assuming. Now, if you look Mahomes' career,

605
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 2: he has five hundred and forty rush attempts in his

606
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 2: career total, playoff, regular season, he's had a rush of

607
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: more than thirteen and a half yards fifty four times,

608
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 2: ten percent of the time, and he's averaged a little

609
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 2: over four rushes per game, again including meeel downs. But

610
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: you might say, okay, in the playoffs, he ups his

611
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 2: rush rate well. In the playoffs. He has one hundred

612
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: and eight total rush attempts, and so he's averaged about

613
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: five and a half rushes per game, again including meeel downs,

614
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 2: so a little bit more. But he's ran for over

615
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half yards ten times, so about nine

616
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 2: percent of the time. So again one out every nine,

617
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: one out of every ten carries he goes over this

618
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 2: he's playing a defense that doesn't give up explosive plays,

619
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: keeps everything in front of them. You're not going to

620
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 2: see like a ton of man in blitzes where you

621
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,480
Speaker 2: could have some breakdowns where Mahomes could scramble for twenty thirty.

622
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 2: Now we've seen him do it. He certainly could. But

623
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 2: you know it's even if you look this year, he's

624
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 2: done it. He's had a rush of at least thirteen

625
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 2: and a half yards in five out of eighteen games,

626
00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 2: five out of seventy six carries. That's one out of

627
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 2: about fifteen. And he's done it in less than half

628
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 2: of his playoff games. And I think this is a

629
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 2: matchup where not only are you less likely to have

630
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: a long broken run, but you're also playing an offense that,

631
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 2: like the Chiefs, can control the ball, so there might

632
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 2: not be as many opportunities for Mahomes, who usually has

633
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: the ball. The majority today are the time possession monster.

634
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 2: You have two time possession monsters here, Like the Eagles

635
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 2: could go on a eight to ten minute drive at

636
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 2: some point in the game, and that's just eating up

637
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 2: some potential rushing opportunities for Mahomes. So yeah, I think

638
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 2: that there's a lot of value in this number. In

639
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 2: his career, he has gone over He's had a rush

640
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 2: of at least thirteen and a half yards in forty

641
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 2: six of one hundred and thirty two games, about thirty

642
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: five percent of his games he's done this. So yeah,

643
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: I think this number is too high. Obviously he could

644
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 2: do it on the first drive and it will be terrible,

645
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:40,879
Speaker 2: But I think this is inflated. And yeah, I think

646
00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: thirteen and a half's too high. I just haven't placed

647
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 2: the yet because I'm trying to figure out if it

648
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 2: does go to fourteen and a half or not, So

649
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 2: it's something I'm monitoring, but it'll come in on the app.

650
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: And was glad to hear that you show value on

651
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 2: it too.

652
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is one of those classic ones that's inflated.

653
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 4: You know, Mahomes ran a lot last game.

654
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 5: He had some of those plays like those RPOs where

655
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 5: he pulled it and Ryan hadn't really shown that. So

656
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 5: I think a lot of that was kind of done

657
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,640
Speaker 5: for tendency reasons too, and not necessarily like, oh, they're

658
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:11,720
Speaker 5: just going to continue to run him at that level

659
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 5: in this So what do.

660
00:35:12,920 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 2: We just talk about the Chiefs Like what you just

661
00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 2: saw is what you're not likely to see again. Right,

662
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:21,240
Speaker 2: So now they showed that. It's kind of a surprise

663
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 2: to the Bills and the Eagles just saw. They have

664
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 2: two weeks to prepare. The Chiefs probably have another wrinkle

665
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: and it might not involve running Mahomes as much. But

666
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: I like the matchup as well and the number, and yeah,

667
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 2: I just think it's too hot. I just hope it's

668
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 2: not like a you just hope there's not Like I'll

669
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: be watching the entire game praying that there's not like

670
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: a third and thirteen. Oh yeah, yeah, third and thirteen,

671
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 2: because then he's probably gonna get it by a yard.

672
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's what I'll be rooting against. The third

673
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: and thirteen were Moms runs down the sideline and it

674
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 2: look looks like he knows exactly how fast to run

675
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 2: every single time. He's just doesn't matter if it's a

676
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: defensive lineman, a linebacker, a d back, He's just one

677
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 2: step ahead of him somehow and goes down the sideline

678
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: and gets the first down by a yard. So that's

679
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 2: what I'll be looking to avoid. But yeah, under thirteen

680
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 2: and a half longest.

681
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 4: Rush, all right. For my.

682
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 5: Third pick and the fixed overall of the Super Bowl

683
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 5: fifty nine six pack, I'm going with both teams to

684
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 5: combine for under five and a half sacks. You can

685
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 5: find us at minus won twenty five at bed MGM.

686
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 4: I have the true OD.

687
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 2: I can't wait to hear this one because I, yeah,

688
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: this is crazy to me.

689
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I have this closer to minus two hundred.

690
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 5: And the thing is, you had like a monster SAT

691
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 5: game for the Chiefs defense in the playoffs, and then

692
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 5: you had a monster set game for Jalen Hurts in

693
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 5: the playoffs. But overall, both of these offenses have been

694
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 5: getting the ball out quicker. If you look at Jalen Hurts,

695
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 5: you know once it became a talking point. After that,

696
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 5: you know, rams game in the Conference championship, he got

697
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 5: it out in two point nine to six, so on average,

698
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 5: only the second time since Week eight that he's had

699
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 5: an average time to throw of under three seconds per

700
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 5: So I think that's gonna be a big, big talking

701
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 5: point here. You know, get the ball out and Mahomes,

702
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 5: we know that. You know, the one thing that has

703
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 5: been consistent of weight is there. They've transitioned to more

704
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 5: short passing offense as well, quicker you know, quicker strike offense.

705
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 5: So his time to throw average has been two point

706
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 5: sixty five seconds with an eight down of six five

707
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 5: since Marquis Brown came back four games ago, compared to

708
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,359
Speaker 5: two point seventy nine with an eight out of six

709
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 5: nine prior to that. So both of these quarterbacks I

710
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:03,760
Speaker 5: have them making uh, just under two and a half sacks.

711
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 5: So when you kind of, you know, work out all

712
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 5: the probabilities, you're gonna get five or few or quite

713
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 5: a quite a bit. And I think that's kind of

714
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 5: being undervalued here. And if you look at that past

715
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 5: Super Bowl that these two teams play, there's only two

716
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 5: total sacks and that's what the Eagles throwing a lot

717
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,399
Speaker 5: more than they have in the past. So I think

718
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 5: it's gonna be a big, uh kind of talking point,

719
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:28,439
Speaker 5: get the ball out quick for both of these teams,

720
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 5: because hurts the one thing that's really been hurting them

721
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 5: that you know he's been doing, he's been getting he's

722
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 5: been taking these sacks knocking him out of a field

723
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 5: goal range. I think he's gonna try to make They're

724
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 5: gonna make sure he has outlets, you know, to throw.

725
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 4: The ball away here.

726
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 5: He'll also be a little healthier, and then Mahomes, you know,

727
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 5: he's not gonna go down very often. You could add

728
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 5: another thing with the Chiefs, but you always could be

729
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 5: help is uh uh. When Mahomes gets sacked, he might

730
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 5: not really get sacked because you might get a cheap

731
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 5: penalty as well. So uh, I just think that, you know,

732
00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 5: it's kind of been a talking point here. It's kind

733
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:00,040
Speaker 5: of one of those things where you look at the

734
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:04,160
Speaker 5: these offensive lines on the interior and you say, oh man, uh,

735
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 5: you know this is gonna lead to more sacks. But

736
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 5: if you kind of look when when you have these

737
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 5: kind of weaknesses and you have time to scheme them up,

738
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 5: that's what you're gonna do.

739
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 4: You're gonna kind of scheme against it.

740
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 5: So I think you're gonna see a lot of like

741
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 5: outside pressures and to try to get them to step

742
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 5: up into the interior pressure. But that's gonna we've guys hot,

743
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 5: you know, right off the ball on the outside. So

744
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 5: I think both of these quarterbacks that's gonna be a

745
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 5: big point of emphasis here. But you could have, you

746
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 5: could have, you know, depending on the game script. Either

747
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 5: one of these quarterbacks take no sacks. I think I

748
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 5: think Mahomes took none in the in that last Eagle

749
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:35,879
Speaker 5: Super Bowl and they led the league.

750
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, the last sup Bowl. The field conditions were horrendous. Yeah,

751
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 2: that's true. No one could get a pass rush.

752
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, but I.

753
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 5: Think I think the Hurts actually was hurt from the snow,

754
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 5: like I think the field conditions being good actually help

755
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 5: him because but either way, I just think both of

756
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 5: these quarterbacks can escape pressure. Both of these teams interior

757
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 5: pressure is gonna be an issue, so they're gonna scheme

758
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 5: around it. And I just think you have two of

759
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 5: the better, uh you know, to two pretty good offensive schemers,

760
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 5: especially on the chief side, So I think you could

761
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 5: have one quarterback with one or no sacks, and then

762
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 5: I just don't think Hurts in this game is going

763
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 5: to be a game where they let him, you know,

764
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 5: sit there take four or five sacks.

765
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, again, that's why it's over.

766
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 5: That's why I think it's infighting because it's hard to

767
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 5: look like if you just look at it, you know,

768
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 5: on a service level, you're like, oh man, this game

769
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 5: is probably gonna have a lot of sacks, a lot

770
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,879
Speaker 5: of great interior rushes here. But I think that's what's

771
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 5: going to be schemed around. I think that's where you're

772
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 5: going to see rushing attempts coming. That's where you're going

773
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 5: to see some of these you know, short quick passes.

774
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 2: So anyway I have it and that got it would

775
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:40,040
Speaker 2: be the benefit of no, yeah you will. That's That's

776
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 2: what I'm banking on. But my fear is just that

777
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 2: if the Chiefs are ahead and they're bringing the blitz,

778
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 2: Hurts holds the ball for so long. Like I mean,

779
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 2: we've seen games this year where he's had six seven

780
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 2: sacks on his own and then mahomes Is pressure to

781
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:05,719
Speaker 2: sack rate has gone up this year. We've seen some

782
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: games a couple of times where he's been sacked five times.

783
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:12,399
Speaker 2: I mean, I get the Panthers that was a nod

784
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 2: one when he sacks five times, I think against the Panthers.

785
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's scary. I get it from a numbers perspective.

786
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 2: I mean, it holds the ball so long against bags

787
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 2: and if they're on a trailing game script like how

788
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 2: many sacks could he rack up late?

789
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, that's why we're getting We're getting a

790
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 4: little bit of value here.

791
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 2: I get it. Yeah, I'm just speaking the play.

792
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:37,799
Speaker 5: I mean I also I'm also the guy that bet

793
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 5: no miskicks that like two to wood after Elliott missed

794
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 5: all these kicks, so uh yeah, like it's I mean

795
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 5: that's where you got to kind of find value here.

796
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 5: A lot of the best numbers like well we'll uh

797
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 5: you know, Kurner and I will do another prop show,

798
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 5: but a lot of these numbers we're just kind of

799
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 5: waiting for them to inflate and kind of trying to

800
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 5: hit the hit the unders on them. So like for

801
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 5: some of the unders that we find out, you've got

802
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 5: to kind of dig a little deeper.

803
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 4: And into these team props.

804
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 5: But the player props, I think those will probably hit

805
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 5: those like you know, like you said, Thursday, Friday, Saturday.

806
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 4: Yep, all right, any final thoughts on the game.

807
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,359
Speaker 5: We'll have our we'll have our long shot. We hit

808
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 5: we hit last week, so we'll have that. But any

809
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 5: final thoughts on this matchup.

810
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:18,799
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a lot of it is just you're

811
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 2: gonna have some wrinkles that no one can anticipate. It's

812
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 2: the biggest game of the season, there's two weeks to prepare.

813
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:29,880
Speaker 2: You have some good coordinators in this game, so a

814
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 2: lot of it we're not gonna know. But we've seen

815
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:41,840
Speaker 2: so many Chiefs games that they're becoming predictable and they're exciting.

816
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 2: But like, it'll be a close game. Obviously it doesn't

817
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 2: have to play this way, but a lot of times

818
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 2: it's just gonna be a close game. They're probably gonna

819
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 2: make good adjustments at halftime. And in order to beat

820
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 2: them in the playoffs, you have to kill them. You

821
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 2: have to put them out of their misery and score

822
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 2: to go up like two possessions with five minutes to go,

823
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 2: because you can't give them the ball late and down

824
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 2: by one possession because you give Mahomes four downs. Say

825
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 2: this every air, they're probably going to go down to score.

826
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 2: And then also you have Spagnola, who will have some

827
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 2: tendency breaking blitzes in his back pocket that he will

828
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 2: probably hold for high leverage moments. We saw that against

829
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 2: Josh Allen late that could end up getting a key

830
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 2: stop late against Hurts, who does hold the ball a

831
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 2: little too long at times. So yeah, I mean, I

832
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 2: think that this game is I think it's going to

833
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:52,479
Speaker 2: be close. I think the Eagles have the better roster,

834
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 2: but the coach the better coach and quarterback in these

835
00:43:55,280 --> 00:44:02,880
Speaker 2: Chiefs games has prevailed almost every time. Probably happens again.

836
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I think I think that the

837
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:09,439
Speaker 2: Chiefs are going to try to focus on taking away

838
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 2: Barkley as they should. Get into passing downs, that's when

839
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:22,839
Speaker 2: your blitz and aggression can really fluster Hurts. So how

840
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:26,359
Speaker 2: much what can Barkley do? How many long runs can

841
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:28,640
Speaker 2: you pray? How many game changing plays can you have

842
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 2: against this Chiefs defense? Because you got to remember, Washington's

843
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 2: defense is horrendous, The Packers' defense pretty beat up. I

844
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:42,200
Speaker 2: mean it's not The Eagles faced a really easy schedule

845
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,800
Speaker 2: opposing defenses as well. I think while I think the

846
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 2: Chiefs defense is overrated, it's still a good defense, and

847
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 2: it's still a lot better than many of these defenses

848
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 2: they faced throughout the season in the NFC, in their

849
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 2: division in particular, and I mean the Rams defense not

850
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 2: anything the Rite Home about. So what can Barkley do?

851
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 2: He's been superman all year? Can he be Superman again?

852
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 2: If not, Hurt's gonna have to play like he did

853
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 2: in that Super Bowl where he was outstanding a couple

854
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 2: of years ago. And guess what I mean, he both

855
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 2: played almost falls it still wasn't enough. They still lost

856
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 2: by a field goal. So the good news is that

857
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: Eagles defense is better this year, and that defense is

858
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 2: has proven to be elite. But it's Mahomes and the

859
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 2: Chiefs are going to find ways to attack, probably over

860
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:36,839
Speaker 2: the middle of the field a lot. If I had

861
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 2: to guess, it's interesting you mentioned Brown. Maybe sky Moore

862
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: a prophet's taken some sharp moneys over four and a

863
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:51,399
Speaker 2: half Chiefs rush attempts, So four four and a half

864
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:55,879
Speaker 2: players to rush the ball, so you figure worthy now

865
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 2: his prop is probably a little too inflated for my life.

866
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 2: Now it's like five and a half rushing yards. I

867
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:05,880
Speaker 2: don't I don't want to bet the under, but I

868
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 2: think it's probably properly priced down like it was two

869
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 2: and a half last week. But you're worth, he's probably

870
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 2: gonna get a carry a check o hunt Mahomes. So

871
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 2: do you think a fifth and you could always have

872
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,280
Speaker 2: one of their tight ends run the ball with a quarterback,

873
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 2: sneak Ryan a draw on the Ryan gets one or

874
00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 2: and is it another receiver? Like what do you think

875
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 2: about that? Over four hour rushing town.

876
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 5: I think that would be the sharp side because yeah,

877
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:41,760
Speaker 5: like I said, I think you could see a surprise

878
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 5: guy like maybe a Marque's Brown somebody else would speed,

879
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,399
Speaker 5: but yeah, you could. It's you know, p Ryan hasn't

880
00:46:47,400 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 5: really been touching the ball in the run game, so

881
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 5: you could always get especially if they're planning on going

882
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 5: for it on fourth. If you get like a third

883
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 5: and medium, third and long situation, maybe they give a

884
00:46:58,120 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 5: draw player p Ryan. He seems to be the guy

885
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,919
Speaker 5: catch defenses off guard, but he does get the ball.

886
00:47:03,000 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 5: So yeah, I would I would go over four and

887
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 5: a half.

888
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, some people we're saying, we're talking about Wentz if

889
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 2: it's a block getting.

890
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 4: Super yeah, yeah, celebrate.

891
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 2: Yeah you can't have Wentz at the end of the season. Yeah,

892
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 2: but yeah, yeah, I mean maybe Wentz takes a knee. No,

893
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,240
Speaker 2: I mean, like if it's if you're taking two knees,

894
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 2: they let him go out and take one, but you

895
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 2: can't really do that. So yeah, I don't think. I

896
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 2: don't think Wentz is in play. What about a popular

897
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 2: another popular one, especially because we have Philly and the

898
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 2: Philly Special and then the Chiefs who could do some

899
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:56,760
Speaker 2: interesting things over you know, basically another player attempting a pass.

900
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 5: That's what I was thinking about, And uh, usually it

901
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 5: would like the Chiefs haven't really taken the ball out

902
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 5: of Mahomes's hands, so you're looking probably more toward the Eagles,

903
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 5: and the Eagles have I think they had a Barkley

904
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 5: attempt but he got sacked.

905
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 4: But I would lean toward no, only because we've seen.

906
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 5: Most of the teams that have done it, especially against

907
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 5: the Chiefs, have had like they've done it more in

908
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:24,440
Speaker 5: the regular season, whereas like the Eagles, they just had

909
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 5: that one Barkie attempted to even let the ball go.

910
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:30,040
Speaker 5: So that's also like that means they actually have discipline,

911
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 5: like they're not just like the Lions, like, oh, we're

912
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:32,719
Speaker 5: just gonna toss it up.

913
00:48:32,719 --> 00:48:34,760
Speaker 4: So I would probably lean though.

914
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:36,799
Speaker 5: I get it it's it's probably gonna be one of those,

915
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 5: So it's gonna be bet to the over.

916
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,800
Speaker 4: But I would lean though, Yeah, I would lean no.

917
00:48:42,840 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 5: I think the best chance you have is probably if

918
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:46,839
Speaker 5: if Hurtz picks up an injury or something like that,

919
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:48,920
Speaker 5: you know, just having to run the ball or you know,

920
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 5: maybe the passwords gets to him whatever, so you got

921
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 5: a chance. But yeah, i'd lean toward no, because I

922
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 5: don't I think just like, the Chiefs don't really sneak,

923
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 5: They're not really trying to take the ball out of

924
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 5: Mahomes's hands on any path. And then the Eagles, I

925
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 5: just I just don't see they They tend to play

926
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 5: risk averse. I just don't see why they They could,

927
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:10,200
Speaker 5: they would be the more likely team, but.

928
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 4: I just I don't see it personally.

929
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:17,439
Speaker 2: What about you, Yeah, yeah, I don't have a strong feel,

930
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 2: but I know people people loved about that one. I

931
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 2: The other thing is so the the hardest team to project.

932
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 2: One of the hardest teams, in my opinion is is

933
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. Their receivers, they're running backs. So do you

934
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:40,799
Speaker 2: have any thoughts on just the target shair like Hopkins

935
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 2: versus Shooster Like, is Hopkins just out like? Is he

936
00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 2: just not going to get targets.

937
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:49,720
Speaker 5: He's kind of knocked down to the fourth receiver and

938
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 5: he's you know, at least for that last game, so

939
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 5: he I think the issue is Philadelphia, like they don't

940
00:49:57,160 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 5: blitz as much. They're probably not gonna blitz as much,

941
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 5: but they also play a lot a man even though

942
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:04,680
Speaker 5: they don't blitz as much. So you know, that's really

943
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,920
Speaker 5: been Worthy in the in this postseason, it's been Worthy

944
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 5: the guy that they've been looking to against man coverage,

945
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 5: and then Brown you know, can separate as well sometimes.

946
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 5: So I think if it's if till he goes zone

947
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 5: heavier than usual, maybe, but yeah, I think Hopkins I

948
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 5: will actually have a long shot bet on him. I

949
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:25,760
Speaker 5: do think he's a little undervalued, but it's it's gonna

950
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:28,359
Speaker 5: come down a situational variance because he's just he's he's

951
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 5: a part of the red zone package. But because they

952
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 5: still do play Noah Grave. But if he's not catching passes,

953
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 5: you know, it's not Brown and Brown and Worthy take

954
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 5: precedence just because they have that speed. So they are

955
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 5: the note the top two receivers, and then Hopkins is

956
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 5: just kind of kind of fit getting ready fits in

957
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:46,799
Speaker 5: into one one on other downs, either in the red

958
00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,839
Speaker 5: zone or you know, weight third down, so he could

959
00:50:49,880 --> 00:50:51,919
Speaker 5: get he could run twenty routes, but he could also

960
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 5: run like ten. So I still think it will be

961
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:59,040
Speaker 5: worthy Brown and and Kelsey will see the most volume.

962
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 5: That's just kind of how I see it, just based

963
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 5: on this how good this egos defenses. I think you're

964
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 5: gonna need your speed separators. And then you know, any

965
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,719
Speaker 5: time they play zone, you look for Kelsey, so.

966
00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and then the infamous Noah Gray. So is

967
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,360
Speaker 2: he just now a blocker or did the Chiefs like

968
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 2: that again? The Chiefs changed tendency, so like I was

969
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 2: tempted to go back to Gray. I saw Kerner loves great.

970
00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 4: I saw that. I was surprised he liked it that

971
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:33,120
Speaker 4: stually in the week.

972
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 5: But I mean, so I do have them a little

973
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 5: under I think the market isn't fully taken into account

974
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 5: his you know, his role did change since Marku's Brown

975
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 5: has come back. He's been blocking a lot more and

976
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:48,359
Speaker 5: they've just been playing a lot fewer two tight end sets.

977
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:50,319
Speaker 5: So that which is why Hopkins. You also see it's

978
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 5: just like all these guys are getting squeezed. You know,

979
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 5: it's there's just you can only play so much one

980
00:51:54,520 --> 00:51:56,520
Speaker 5: one and so much one two in a given game.

981
00:51:57,320 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 5: So it's it's just kind of it's gonna come down

982
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 5: to variance a little. But yeah, I'm actually very in

983
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:05,080
Speaker 5: line with the market. I could see at anytime touchdown

984
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 5: though for Great, I think that's something that you know,

985
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:09,880
Speaker 5: people are just downing him in general. Maybe that'll have

986
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 5: a little bit of value because most of the touchdowns

987
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 5: get get better up. But I could see I could

988
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 5: see Noah Great having a role here, you know. Uh,

989
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 5: just like you said, the middle of the field, linebackers.

990
00:52:20,280 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 5: Safety is still the Eagles weaker points on defense if

991
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,520
Speaker 5: if you're gonna call it that, So I wouldn't be surprised.

992
00:52:26,560 --> 00:52:29,720
Speaker 5: But I do think game plan wise, it's still gonna

993
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 5: be Worthy Brown Kelsey, Like, I don't think that's gonna change.

994
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 4: It's just how how often do they get him off

995
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 4: those reads?

996
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:41,040
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, that and a lot of these It's it's

997
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 2: very interesting to me because I can make you a

998
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 2: lot of the case for you know, you want to

999
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 2: wait till late in the week and then look at

1000
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 2: some unders, and then you have two teams that are

1001
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 2: ball control offenses. Who but the Eagles are. I think

1002
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 2: the Eagles are more likely to hit explosive place than

1003
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. The Chiefs one of the least explosive offenses

1004
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:11,360
Speaker 2: in the NFL. The Eagles give up nothing explosive wise.

1005
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: So from a play volume perspective, the Chiefs might have

1006
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:22,000
Speaker 2: the edge in a battle of two teams that are

1007
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 2: time of possession kings. Would you agree with that?

1008
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually took Chiefs. They were actually plus money

1009
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 5: at the time I took him. There's still one fifteen.

1010
00:53:29,440 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 4: I still like them up to about one twenty five,

1011
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:33,319
Speaker 4: but I took the Chiefs to have more first down

1012
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:36,719
Speaker 4: for that same reason. Like even we match game, you know.

1013
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 5: Which team, like the if you expected similar score, similar

1014
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,719
Speaker 5: yardage numbers on both sides, which team is likely to

1015
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,319
Speaker 5: be more explosive to Eagles, which team is likely to

1016
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 5: have to go up and down the field more.

1017
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 4: It's the Chiefs. So yeah, same.

1018
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 5: Their volume money that I know, I think it's minus

1019
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:56,799
Speaker 5: one fifteen. Now I got it at plus money, but

1020
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:59,680
Speaker 5: it's still a little bit of value. But yeah, it's uh.

1021
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 5: I do think the Chiefs are more likely to hit

1022
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 5: those volume you know, those volume numbers, whereas the Egos

1023
00:54:05,719 --> 00:54:09,840
Speaker 5: it's gonna come down to Saqua explosives, Hurts explosives, you know,

1024
00:54:10,000 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 5: receiet like Brown and Smith explosives. The more explosive those

1025
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:15,919
Speaker 5: guys hit, the more unders are.

1026
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:19,719
Speaker 4: Going to see. Volume wise, I think, yeah, all.

1027
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 2: Right, special teams, by the way, I have them rated

1028
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:28,240
Speaker 2: pretty evenly across the board. I thought about an ariza

1029
00:54:28,360 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 2: over longest punt, but just like the lack the potential

1030
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 2: limited number of possessions yep, and punts, yeah scare me

1031
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:42,520
Speaker 2: a bit. But I have a specialty that the one

1032
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 2: wild card is like, where's Elliot's head at?

1033
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 5: So he he had all of this, he only had

1034
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 5: one missed indoors, I believe, so most of his misses

1035
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:56,400
Speaker 5: of an outdoors that you know, So that's something to

1036
00:54:56,560 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 5: kind of watch. I wonder too, that's something where I

1037
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:00,839
Speaker 5: think that could hurt the e like if they because

1038
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:03,439
Speaker 5: usually they're just conservative and though you know, Hurts does

1039
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:05,719
Speaker 5: take some plays or some sacks out of field goal

1040
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 5: range at times, are they content with just going for

1041
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 5: those field goals or do they you know, do they

1042
00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 5: go for it on fourth more? You know, now to

1043
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 5: because I could get them in trouble. You know that

1044
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:18,359
Speaker 5: they're normally efficient time and possession offense. If they you know,

1045
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:20,399
Speaker 5: miss up turn it over on downs, that's they don't

1046
00:55:20,440 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 5: really turn them all over periods, so that that's something.

1047
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 4: That could hurt them.

1048
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 5: But it is worth noting that most of Elliot's issues

1049
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 5: have been outdoors in weather.

1050
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:30,200
Speaker 2: Yeah all right.

1051
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:33,760
Speaker 5: So to recap the six pack, Stuck has the Eagles

1052
00:55:33,800 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 5: on the first half spread plus one and a half

1053
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:39,520
Speaker 5: minus one twenty five. Dallas got it over forty nine

1054
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:41,360
Speaker 5: and a half for Steveing yards at minus one twenty

1055
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 5: two and Patrick Mahomes under thirteen and a half for

1056
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:48,080
Speaker 5: his longest rush. You can find that about minus one

1057
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 5: fourteen in the market. I have the Chiefs to go

1058
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 5: under one hundred and fifteen and a half rushing yards

1059
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 5: at minus one fifteen, total sacks under five and a

1060
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 5: half for both teams combined. At my it's won twenty

1061
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:04,040
Speaker 5: five like that up to just under minus two hundred

1062
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:05,360
Speaker 5: and have a while showing them out of value on

1063
00:56:05,400 --> 00:56:07,720
Speaker 5: that one and then the Chiefs money line at minus

1064
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 5: one twenty four. That was our Super Bowl fifty nine

1065
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 5: six pack. Now it's time for our final coaches PEP

1066
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:15,720
Speaker 5: talk of the season.

1067
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 4: Do you keep playing the way you're playing. We're gonna

1068
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:22,080
Speaker 4: get an ass feed again tonight. And it stopped right now,

1069
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 4: all right.

1070
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 5: The final coaches PEP talk of the season comes to

1071
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 5: us from a championship coach. This is a leaked audio

1072
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 5: of Georgia head coach Kirby Smart before the championship game

1073
00:56:31,239 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 5: against TCU back in twenty twenty three. And we're dedicating it.

1074
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 4: To the Eagles in the first Avens and the Chiefs

1075
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 4: in the second.

1076
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 3: So Joe ass is prepared for this shit, for fucking

1077
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:45,759
Speaker 3: a three hundred season.

1078
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:46,239
Speaker 1: Five day.

1079
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 3: I think about the fuckers in that locker room to

1080
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 3: think about getting more opportunity, all the shit you went

1081
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 3: through this week to get ready to this game.

1082
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:54,799
Speaker 4: Now it's when you play the fucking prime.

1083
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:55,839
Speaker 2: Ain't nobody's rooms.

1084
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 4: He's nervous about shit. Go out here and fuck their

1085
00:56:58,960 --> 00:56:59,480
Speaker 4: ass up.

1086
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 3: Think about shit, you think about knocking the shit out

1087
00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:05,680
Speaker 3: of you off out of here. You've knock their asshole.

1088
00:57:05,760 --> 00:57:08,080
Speaker 3: Just stay off the fucking good tackle the fucking man

1089
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:11,640
Speaker 3: of the ball. A shit's easy, A shit's easy about

1090
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:14,200
Speaker 3: who the fuck we all? I believe in you plus

1091
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 3: no care.

1092
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 4: All right, So get into our long shot moneyline. Parlay here.

1093
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,160
Speaker 5: Just want to remind everyone that now is the perfect

1094
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 5: time to upgrade to an Action Pro subscription. It's the

1095
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1096
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1102
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 5: March Madness, MLB, NBA, and even next college football and

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Speaker 5: NFL seasons as well.

1104
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 4: So don't wait.

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1106
00:58:00,240 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 5: off Action Pro. All right, stuck, We hit last week

1107
00:58:04,160 --> 00:58:09,480
Speaker 5: with You're Worthy anytime touchdown and Philadelphia to have more

1108
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 5: punts in that game.

1109
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,040
Speaker 4: That was a sweat. Came down to the I guess

1110
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:13,880
Speaker 4: came down to the fake.

1111
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:16,320
Speaker 2: But were we go punts right? Totally?

1112
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 5: Yeah? Yeah, yeah, and watch it do it at too

1113
00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:20,840
Speaker 5: if that's for the fake. So that was that was clutch.

1114
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,439
Speaker 5: But where are you going this week?

1115
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:27,480
Speaker 2: Arms in the air in a victory salute, pull upose

1116
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 2: pants and be a man back to the well. Worthy

1117
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 2: anytime touchdown. I mean, look, he has the most red

1118
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:38,400
Speaker 2: down touchdowns on the team this year receiving, and if

1119
00:58:38,400 --> 00:58:43,520
Speaker 2: you look at his target share in his targets per

1120
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:48,439
Speaker 2: route run in the red zone, he's just below Kelsey. Yep,

1121
00:58:49,000 --> 00:58:52,440
Speaker 2: he's twenty seven percent. Kelsey's at twenty nine percent. And

1122
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 2: what's Kelsey priced anytime touchdown? Plus one thirty yeah, twenty yep, yeah,

1123
00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 2: and you can get plus one sixty five Unworthy. I

1124
00:59:01,280 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 2: think this should be, like you know, so obviously not

1125
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 2: as much value as last year, as last week plus

1126
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 2: two hundred or the week before where I bet him,

1127
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:15,200
Speaker 2: but I think this should be like plus one forty ish.

1128
00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 2: And he's getting rush attempts in the red zone. There's

1129
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:22,320
Speaker 2: multiple ways that he can get there. And we always

1130
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 2: talk about this. The Chiefs are consolidating that they get

1131
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:27,120
Speaker 2: the ball to Worthy is one of those primary targets. So,

1132
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,520
Speaker 2: and you know, down in the red zone, those outside

1133
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 2: corners are really good for the Eagles. The run dyes

1134
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 2: really good. The Chiefs haven't been able to run the

1135
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:39,320
Speaker 2: ball well, so I think once they get down towards

1136
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 2: the goal line. Probably have a couple different plays with Worthy,

1137
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 2: you know, either in motion or just getting him in

1138
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 2: favorable matchups. So I think this is a good chance

1139
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 2: of hitting. So you know, let's go back to the

1140
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:56,960
Speaker 2: well with Worthy plus one sixty five anytime touchdown. I'd

1141
00:59:56,960 --> 01:00:00,400
Speaker 2: play this down to like even one fifty as far

1142
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 2: as I go.

1143
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean he's been He's clearly opened up their

1144
01:00:04,480 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 5: offense down there in the red zone. So I'm actually

1145
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 5: gonna go in a different direction because I do show

1146
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 5: value on Hopkins, so I'm trying to figure out how

1147
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 5: to play him. So let's go with Hopkins anytime touchdown

1148
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 5: here at plus six hundred.

1149
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 4: I have was true odds closer to.

1150
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 5: Plus four point thirty here, and again he's a guy

1151
01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:27,520
Speaker 5: that he's not necessarily getting see consistent usage between the twenties.

1152
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 5: That's just not who he is these days, especially with

1153
01:00:30,200 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 5: Brown healthy, that's just not the receiver that they're that's

1154
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 5: just not how they're using them. But in the red zone,

1155
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 5: especially now that you have to account for Worthy, you

1156
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 5: have to account for Brown a little bit more. Even

1157
01:00:41,120 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 5: though he's not a stereo prototypical red zone receiver. You know,

1158
01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:48,560
Speaker 5: and you have to account for Mahomes's legs. There's just

1159
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 5: a lot here. So Hopkins I think he can get

1160
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:54,840
Speaker 5: into the end zone here. If you look at who's

1161
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 5: been the most targeted Eagle on defense, it's been Darius Slay.

1162
01:00:57,880 --> 01:01:01,720
Speaker 5: Hopkins does run more routes towards Slaves side of the field,

1163
01:01:01,800 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 5: and Slave has been targeted seventeen times by receivers alone

1164
01:01:05,240 --> 01:01:07,800
Speaker 5: and then twenty two times in total this postseason. That

1165
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:08,800
Speaker 5: leads the Eagles.

1166
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:09,840
Speaker 4: So I think.

1167
01:01:09,800 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 5: Hopkins could very well get into the end zone here.

1168
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:15,200
Speaker 5: I know he's been a popular play on like the

1169
01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:16,800
Speaker 5: over one and a half catches and whatnot.

1170
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 4: There's a lot of variants there, but.

1171
01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 5: I think the best bang for your bucket is going

1172
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:24,320
Speaker 5: to go it's gonna be Hopkins here. So we'll go

1173
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 5: Worthy at plus one sixty five Hopkins at six to one.

1174
01:01:27,120 --> 01:01:29,840
Speaker 5: That will be plus seventeen fifty five for a parway,

1175
01:01:29,840 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 5: And for that you might as well add Mahomes over

1176
01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:34,880
Speaker 5: one and a half touchdowns too, because he would need

1177
01:01:34,880 --> 01:01:35,560
Speaker 5: it for the parway.

1178
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:37,120
Speaker 2: But where they could get one rushing.

1179
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 4: Oh that's true, Yeah, no, that's true, very true. So

1180
01:01:40,320 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 4: I like Hopkins here.

1181
01:01:41,200 --> 01:01:42,800
Speaker 5: I think that's this is probably the best way to

1182
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 5: play him and Worthy. Yeah, he's been a staple and

1183
01:01:46,360 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 5: they're going to need his speed.

1184
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, I can see them having something some like

1185
01:01:50,680 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 2: something near the at the pie line or a fade

1186
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:54,240
Speaker 2: for Hopkins.

1187
01:01:54,520 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, or pick play. That's really what it usually comes

1188
01:01:56,600 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 4: down to. These days.

1189
01:01:57,680 --> 01:01:59,720
Speaker 5: They don't most teams aren't throwing the phades as much.

1190
01:01:59,760 --> 01:02:01,840
Speaker 5: But you gotta pick play. That's anybody, you know. It

1191
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:04,200
Speaker 5: doesn't have to be the number one guy anymore. So

1192
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 5: Juju is always a threat to But all right, that

1193
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:10,520
Speaker 5: is gonna do it for us here on the Action

1194
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,800
Speaker 5: Network podcast. Thanks for listening to Stuck in Out for

1195
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:18,760
Speaker 5: the entire NFL season. It's our sixth consecutive. It's been

1196
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 5: a pleasure Stuck and all off season long, you can

1197
01:02:22,480 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 5: hear Stuck talking college hoops over at the Big Bets.

1198
01:02:25,240 --> 01:02:26,520
Speaker 4: On Campus podcast.

1199
01:02:26,960 --> 01:02:30,800
Speaker 5: I'm with Sean Kerner on the Fantasy Flex and we'll

1200
01:02:30,800 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 5: be doing.

1201
01:02:31,120 --> 01:02:33,800
Speaker 4: Episodes all off season long for that. Stuck is on

1202
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 4: X at Stucky two.

1203
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 5: I'm at Chris raybond Re those same handles on the

1204
01:02:37,920 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 5: three award winning Action Network app Enjoy the super Bowl.

1205
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:42,760
Speaker 4: Let's get this money.

1206
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 2: Let go.

1207
01:02:53,360 --> 01:02:57,880
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1208
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:00,680
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1209
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 1: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred gambler