Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Bloomberg's Danny Berger sat
Speaker 1: down with Apollo co president Scott Kleiman, and here's what
Speaker 1: they have to say.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for sitting down with me.
Speaker 3: It's a pleasure, Danny. Thanks.
Speaker 2: So, you've had an investor day, you've had earnings, there's
Speaker 2: been an election in between. But within all that, you
Speaker 2: and the team at Apolo said that you wanted to
Speaker 2: double your au by twenty twenty nine to one and
Speaker 2: a half trillion dollars. That is a punchy number.
Speaker 3: What gets you there?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, Aum, as we always say, is the
Speaker 4: output not the input. You know, ultimately, if you're able
Speaker 4: to deliver good investments with good returns, the dollars will come.
Speaker 4: You know, there is no shortage of asset managers providing
Speaker 4: beta out in the market.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 4: The key is to be able to provide alpha, and
Speaker 4: everything we do, the entire way we tune our business
Speaker 4: is to find those places where we can find excess
Speaker 4: return in the market. And our investors are apreciate that.
Speaker 4: And that's really at the end of the day, what's
Speaker 4: driving it.
Speaker 2: Where do you think is the biggest opportunity to do
Speaker 2: that right now.
Speaker 3: You know, lots of places.
Speaker 4: You know, one of the areas we talk about a
Speaker 4: lot is uh, you know, fixed income replacement. You know,
Speaker 4: the the market is waking up to the fact that
Speaker 4: the opportunity to just you know, carry your fixed income
Speaker 4: portfolio at essentially no access spread is you know nice,
Speaker 4: But the opportunity cost of doing that is pretty massive.
Speaker 4: And there are structural ways to earn excess return on
Speaker 4: that fixing fixed income without taking more risk and without sacrificing.
Speaker 3: Meaningful, meaningful liquidity.
Speaker 4: And you know, more and more investors are opening up
Speaker 4: to that, and we've proven it with our own balance
Speaker 4: sheet for many, many years, and that's starting to become
Speaker 4: attractive to the market.
Speaker 2: What about politics as a driver of growth. I know
Speaker 2: the market is really excited that with a t upcoming
Speaker 2: presidency they'll be deregulation m and A starts to swell
Speaker 2: to some degree. Do you share that enthusiasm, Yeah.
Speaker 4: I'd say I'm a little more balanced about it, right,
Speaker 4: I mean, the economy. Everything starts with the economy, and
Speaker 4: you know, the economy has been incredibly robust for the
Speaker 4: last several years in an environment that you know, let's
Speaker 4: be honest has been you know, fairly anti business from
Speaker 4: a regulatory, you know environment. I do think, you know,
Speaker 4: there's hope and expectation with the new administration that there
Speaker 4: will be a more conducive environment to business, to business.
Speaker 3: Growth, to allowing more M and A and so that
Speaker 3: should help.
Speaker 4: That should help, But ultimately I think things are dictated
Speaker 4: more by the underlying economy and business rather than the
Speaker 4: regulatory environment.
Speaker 3: That that's an added that that.
Speaker 4: Can speed things up or solol things down, but doesn't
Speaker 4: really change the direction of travel.
Speaker 2: There does seem, though, to have been more scrutiny from
Speaker 2: regulators on private equity, on private capital in general. Do
Speaker 2: you expect that that's going to ease off.
Speaker 3: Hopefully?
Speaker 4: No, No, the the reality is there's been a lot
Speaker 4: of rhetoric. I don't know that there's been meaningfully more
Speaker 4: definitive regulation, right I think, to be fair, regulators are
Speaker 4: trying to understand as alternative investments, private equity, private capital
Speaker 4: becomes a bigger part of investors' portfolios, they rightly want
Speaker 4: to understand, you know, what it is, what does it
Speaker 4: do to the systemic risk of the system. I think
Speaker 4: they're figuring out that it actually doesn't change it. In fact,
Speaker 4: things like private credit reduce systemic risk. Private equity is
Speaker 4: an investment product like any other investment product and doesn't necessarily,
Speaker 4: you know, increase portfolio risk. And so I think the
Speaker 4: more investigation that's happened, the reality is, the more regulars
Speaker 4: have figured out that it's not inherently an inherently riskier
Speaker 4: I do think though the tone at the top matters
Speaker 4: and the nature of you know, is there a support
Speaker 4: for business growth, is there support for M and A?
Speaker 4: Is there support for champions in the US in industry?
Speaker 4: That makes a difference, and that's what I think we'll see,
Speaker 4: we'll see more of.
Speaker 2: So to be fair, is it fair to characterize it
Speaker 2: as animal spirits are going to be awakened regardless of
Speaker 2: what's happening in DC.
Speaker 4: I think that's always the case. I think you know,
Speaker 4: DC can certainly make it more conducive. Okay, yeah, you know.
Speaker 4: There's other things too though, that I think will benefit.
Speaker 4: You know, when you think about retirement products, when you
Speaker 4: think about alternatives for individual investors, I do think there's
Speaker 4: going to be more interest in that, or more willingness
Speaker 4: to see that proceed.
Speaker 2: Can you get into that a little bit, because I
Speaker 2: know wealth products are really important from Apollo that that's
Speaker 2: a huge source of growth. And a lot of the
Speaker 2: Trump policies, at least as we know what they're likely
Speaker 2: to be and what he's promised, are going to help
Speaker 2: a lot of wealthy individuals. How do you sort of
Speaker 2: make Apollo informant that you can take advantage of some
Speaker 2: of that to come.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Well, to be fair, we think we know we
Speaker 4: don't actually know what policies are going to be. What
Speaker 4: we'll wait and see, But I do think it's less
Speaker 4: about wealthy individuals and it's more about individual investors in general,
Speaker 4: you know, retirement accounts, retirement savings. You know, we know
Speaker 4: for a fact that the excluding alternatives from iras four
Speaker 4: to one k's other DC plans has been a real detriment.
Speaker 4: Other countries have figured this out, and you know, for
Speaker 4: a variety of reasons, we just have not seen that
Speaker 4: adoption here in the US. I think we're getting closer
Speaker 4: to a point where with a little more impetus, a
Speaker 4: little more push, you know, you will see that and
Speaker 4: that's a huge game changer. Right think about you know,
Speaker 4: the four to one K market, right, we ask individuals
Speaker 4: to put money away for the next thirty years to
Speaker 4: save for their retirement. If we could get them an
Speaker 4: extra couple of percent, you don't need to take the
Speaker 4: most extreme risk.
Speaker 3: Just a couple of percent return.
Speaker 4: Compound that over thirty years is pretty massive and eventually.
Speaker 3: You know, good ideas prevail.
Speaker 4: And I think this may be the window where we
Speaker 4: see that push and that opening from regulators to be
Speaker 4: able to start doing much.
Speaker 2: More of that elsewhere. There is this fear might be
Speaker 2: too extreme to explain it, but renewed concern maybe about inflation.
Speaker 2: And I know your colleague Mark Rowan has talked about
Speaker 2: that the Fed's cut was a cheap one and perhaps
Speaker 2: wasn't necessary given the economic strength we've had. The concern
Speaker 2: also stems from Trump policies too. How concerned are you
Speaker 2: to be operating potentially in an environment where inflation isn't
Speaker 2: as tame as we thought it was and maybe is
Speaker 2: more sticky.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Look, I've been pretty adamant about this. When we spoke
Speaker 4: last a few months ago, I said, you know, I
Speaker 4: think rates are going to be higher for longer because
Speaker 4: inflation is not tamed. You know, the FED can say
Speaker 4: what it wants you know, you just have to open
Speaker 4: your eyes and look around, you know, think about the
Speaker 4: last flight you were on and how.
Speaker 3: Crowded it was.
Speaker 4: Or the fact that you're paying eighty five dollars for
Speaker 4: a stake and next week it'll probably.
Speaker 3: Be ninety dollars, you know. Or housing prices right.
Speaker 4: Everywhere people want to live, right, there's not enough homes.
Speaker 4: Housing prices are going up, notwithstanding you know, the backdrop
Speaker 4: of the rate environment, and so we see inflation not
Speaker 4: as beaten but as suppressed. And the more the FED cuts,
Speaker 4: the more you're lifting your hand off that off that
Speaker 4: lever to hold inflation down. And and look, nobody's got
Speaker 4: a crystal ball. But you know, we live in a
Speaker 4: world that is inherent The mega trends that are driving
Speaker 4: the world today.
Speaker 3: Are pretty inflationary.
Speaker 4: You have things like the build out of the digital infrastructure,
Speaker 4: so between you know, chip fabs and data centers and
Speaker 4: the power that's I mean, that's one hundred trillion dollars
Speaker 4: we have to spend over the next decade. Uh the
Speaker 4: uh you know, decarbonization, the deglow mobilization of the economy.
Speaker 4: All of these things are inherently very inflationary. Then later
Speaker 4: on top of that, what might be you know, some
Speaker 4: of the new administration's policies that are you know that
Speaker 4: sound inflationary, you know, deficit spending, some of these other
Speaker 4: programs that are going to add to inflation. It's it's
Speaker 4: very hard to say that inflation is beaten or inflation
Speaker 4: is over. That doesn't mean inflation is going to run away.
Speaker 4: It just means we're going to have to live with
Speaker 4: a higher rate environment for a lot longer.
Speaker 2: And you've been really good and really right on this
Speaker 2: idea that we're going to have a higher rate environment.
Speaker 2: And one of the things you said at a conference
Speaker 2: in Berlin this year, in what feels like a lifetime
Speaker 2: ago in June is that not everything is going to
Speaker 2: be okay, that we're going to have some refinancing coming
Speaker 2: into the market and it's going to be a problem
Speaker 2: for a lot of private capital. Again, that was in June.
Speaker 2: Is the moment of racketing nine.
Speaker 4: Now for sure, I mean we're getting you know, closer
Speaker 4: and closer to this the as I alluded.
Speaker 3: To back then.
Speaker 4: You know, the private equity industry, you know, invested in
Speaker 4: a lot of companies, you know, over the say, the
Speaker 4: five years leading up to twenty twenty two before the
Speaker 4: rate change happened, good companies, but at very full prices.
Speaker 4: So sitting here today, when private equity companies would firms
Speaker 4: would be normally selling their portfolios, there's stuff they're holding
Speaker 4: on to, big portfolios of good companies.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 4: I'll positive that most of these investments are good investments.
Speaker 4: They just paid too much for them given the current
Speaker 4: rate environment, and so they are saleable, but maybe not
Speaker 4: at prices that these private equity firms would be happy with,
Speaker 4: and so they're gonna hold on to them. And by
Speaker 4: holding on to them, you have grumpy LPs who aren't
Speaker 4: getting their cash back at the rate they thought. And
Speaker 4: then you also have refinancing issues. Right, Okay, well, now
Speaker 4: I'm holding this longer, I have to refinance it, and
Speaker 4: so how do I do that. Some companies will have
Speaker 4: no problem, others will have to start being a little
Speaker 4: more creative. And we're absolutely we're absolutely seeing that part
Speaker 4: of our business model is to help those companies, the
Speaker 4: other sponsors that you might need capital somewhere in their
Speaker 4: capital structure to help get through this next hump, because again,
Speaker 4: most of these companies are actually good companies. The sponsor
Speaker 4: just paid the wrong price for it.
Speaker 2: Is the matter made even worse at this moment though,
Speaker 2: than it looked in June, considering we might have more
Speaker 2: inflationary policies coming in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: I think it only lends credence to my theory.
Speaker 2: You know, we'll put it that way, okay, I think
Speaker 2: that's a great way to put it. The other thing
Speaker 2: we talked about at that time was you had done
Speaker 2: a JV with Intel to build out a big factory
Speaker 2: in Ireland.
Speaker 3: You said you.
Speaker 2: Wanted to do more deals like that. What does the
Speaker 2: pipeline look like for now? These energy necessary for AI
Speaker 2: type deals.
Speaker 4: Pretty massive, you know, there are, and you know the
Speaker 4: energy is one component, but everything I was talking about,
Speaker 4: the de globalization, the digital infrastructure, the decarbonization, all of
Speaker 4: these things are massive capital you know, needs for companies,
Speaker 4: and these companies just don't have access to all the
Speaker 4: capital they need, and so finding ways to partner with
Speaker 4: these companies bringing the right cost of capital to the
Speaker 4: right situation really spanning everything from investment grade always to
Speaker 4: private equity and everything in between, really is the future.
Speaker 4: And that's going to be you know, the name of
Speaker 4: the game for years to come. I mean, we're talking
Speaker 4: about hundreds of trillions of dollars that need to be spent.
Speaker 4: There there's room for us ten times over, you know,
Speaker 4: and lots of others. And that's you know, that's the
Speaker 4: exciting opportunity. And being able to you know, partner with
Speaker 4: lots of amazing companies is what is what makes it great.
Speaker 2: I just want to end with maybe throwing out a
Speaker 2: little bit of red meat to the team at Apollo.
Speaker 2: Private equity bonuses, according to Johnson Associations, are set to
Speaker 2: rise in twenty twenty four. That's even excluding carried interest.
Speaker 2: Is twenty twenty four to be a good year for bonuses.
Speaker 3: Scott, Danny, you're killing me. Uh no, it's it's it's
Speaker 3: it's a good year. You know, Apollo has been blessed.
Speaker 4: We We've had amazing momentum and continue to have amazing momentum.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: Fortunately, most of our employees are stockholders, and uh, you know,
Speaker 4: we're working really hard for our our team, our investors,
Speaker 4: and our shareholders.
Speaker 2: It's a great note to end it on, Scott, Thank
Speaker 2: you so much.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Danny Berger with Apollo co president Scott Kleinman,