WEBVTT - Apollo Co-President Scott Kleinman Talks Inflation

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Bloomberg's Danny Berger sat

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<v Speaker 1>down with Apollo co president Scott Kleiman, and here's what

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<v Speaker 1>they have to say.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for sitting down with me.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a pleasure, Danny. Thanks.

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<v Speaker 2>So, you've had an investor day, you've had earnings, there's

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<v Speaker 2>been an election in between. But within all that, you

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<v Speaker 2>and the team at Apolo said that you wanted to

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<v Speaker 2>double your au by twenty twenty nine to one and

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<v Speaker 2>a half trillion dollars. That is a punchy number.

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<v Speaker 3>What gets you there?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you know, Aum, as we always say, is the

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<v Speaker 4>output not the input. You know, ultimately, if you're able

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<v Speaker 4>to deliver good investments with good returns, the dollars will come.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, there is no shortage of asset managers providing

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<v Speaker 4>beta out in the market.

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<v Speaker 2>You know.

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<v Speaker 4>The key is to be able to provide alpha, and

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<v Speaker 4>everything we do, the entire way we tune our business

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<v Speaker 4>is to find those places where we can find excess

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<v Speaker 4>return in the market. And our investors are apreciate that.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's really at the end of the day, what's

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<v Speaker 4>driving it.

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<v Speaker 2>Where do you think is the biggest opportunity to do

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<v Speaker 2>that right now.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, lots of places.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, one of the areas we talk about a

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<v Speaker 4>lot is uh, you know, fixed income replacement. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>the the market is waking up to the fact that

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<v Speaker 4>the opportunity to just you know, carry your fixed income

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<v Speaker 4>portfolio at essentially no access spread is you know nice,

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<v Speaker 4>But the opportunity cost of doing that is pretty massive.

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<v Speaker 4>And there are structural ways to earn excess return on

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<v Speaker 4>that fixing fixed income without taking more risk and without sacrificing.

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<v Speaker 3>Meaningful, meaningful liquidity.

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<v Speaker 4>And you know, more and more investors are opening up

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<v Speaker 4>to that, and we've proven it with our own balance

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<v Speaker 4>sheet for many, many years, and that's starting to become

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<v Speaker 4>attractive to the market.

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<v Speaker 2>What about politics as a driver of growth. I know

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<v Speaker 2>the market is really excited that with a t upcoming

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<v Speaker 2>presidency they'll be deregulation m and A starts to swell

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<v Speaker 2>to some degree. Do you share that enthusiasm, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>I'd say I'm a little more balanced about it, right,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, the economy. Everything starts with the economy, and

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the economy has been incredibly robust for the

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<v Speaker 4>last several years in an environment that you know, let's

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<v Speaker 4>be honest has been you know, fairly anti business from

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<v Speaker 4>a regulatory, you know environment. I do think, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>there's hope and expectation with the new administration that there

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<v Speaker 4>will be a more conducive environment to business, to business.

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<v Speaker 3>Growth, to allowing more M and A and so that

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<v Speaker 3>should help.

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<v Speaker 4>That should help, But ultimately I think things are dictated

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<v Speaker 4>more by the underlying economy and business rather than the

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<v Speaker 4>regulatory environment.

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<v Speaker 3>That that's an added that that.

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<v Speaker 4>Can speed things up or solol things down, but doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>really change the direction of travel.

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<v Speaker 2>There does seem, though, to have been more scrutiny from

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<v Speaker 2>regulators on private equity, on private capital in general. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you expect that that's going to ease off.

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<v Speaker 3>Hopefully?

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<v Speaker 4>No, No, the the reality is there's been a lot

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<v Speaker 4>of rhetoric. I don't know that there's been meaningfully more

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<v Speaker 4>definitive regulation, right I think, to be fair, regulators are

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<v Speaker 4>trying to understand as alternative investments, private equity, private capital

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<v Speaker 4>becomes a bigger part of investors' portfolios, they rightly want

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<v Speaker 4>to understand, you know, what it is, what does it

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<v Speaker 4>do to the systemic risk of the system. I think

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<v Speaker 4>they're figuring out that it actually doesn't change it. In fact,

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<v Speaker 4>things like private credit reduce systemic risk. Private equity is

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<v Speaker 4>an investment product like any other investment product and doesn't necessarily,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, increase portfolio risk. And so I think the

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<v Speaker 4>more investigation that's happened, the reality is, the more regulars

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<v Speaker 4>have figured out that it's not inherently an inherently riskier

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<v Speaker 4>I do think though the tone at the top matters

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<v Speaker 4>and the nature of you know, is there a support

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<v Speaker 4>for business growth, is there support for M and A?

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<v Speaker 4>Is there support for champions in the US in industry?

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<v Speaker 4>That makes a difference, and that's what I think we'll see,

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<v Speaker 4>we'll see more of.

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<v Speaker 2>So to be fair, is it fair to characterize it

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<v Speaker 2>as animal spirits are going to be awakened regardless of

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<v Speaker 2>what's happening in DC.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's always the case. I think you know,

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<v Speaker 4>DC can certainly make it more conducive. Okay, yeah, you know.

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<v Speaker 4>There's other things too though, that I think will benefit.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, when you think about retirement products, when you

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<v Speaker 4>think about alternatives for individual investors, I do think there's

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<v Speaker 4>going to be more interest in that, or more willingness

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<v Speaker 4>to see that proceed.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you get into that a little bit, because I

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<v Speaker 2>know wealth products are really important from Apollo that that's

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<v Speaker 2>a huge source of growth. And a lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>Trump policies, at least as we know what they're likely

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<v Speaker 2>to be and what he's promised, are going to help

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of wealthy individuals. How do you sort of

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<v Speaker 2>make Apollo informant that you can take advantage of some

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<v Speaker 2>of that to come.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, Well, to be fair, we think we know we

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<v Speaker 4>don't actually know what policies are going to be. What

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<v Speaker 4>we'll wait and see, But I do think it's less

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<v Speaker 4>about wealthy individuals and it's more about individual investors in general,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, retirement accounts, retirement savings. You know, we know

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<v Speaker 4>for a fact that the excluding alternatives from iras four

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<v Speaker 4>to one k's other DC plans has been a real detriment.

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<v Speaker 4>Other countries have figured this out, and you know, for

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<v Speaker 4>a variety of reasons, we just have not seen that

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<v Speaker 4>adoption here in the US. I think we're getting closer

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<v Speaker 4>to a point where with a little more impetus, a

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<v Speaker 4>little more push, you know, you will see that and

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<v Speaker 4>that's a huge game changer. Right think about you know,

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<v Speaker 4>the four to one K market, right, we ask individuals

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<v Speaker 4>to put money away for the next thirty years to

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<v Speaker 4>save for their retirement. If we could get them an

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<v Speaker 4>extra couple of percent, you don't need to take the

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<v Speaker 4>most extreme risk.

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<v Speaker 3>Just a couple of percent return.

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<v Speaker 4>Compound that over thirty years is pretty massive and eventually.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, good ideas prevail.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think this may be the window where we

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<v Speaker 4>see that push and that opening from regulators to be

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<v Speaker 4>able to start doing much.

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<v Speaker 2>More of that elsewhere. There is this fear might be

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<v Speaker 2>too extreme to explain it, but renewed concern maybe about inflation.

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<v Speaker 2>And I know your colleague Mark Rowan has talked about

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<v Speaker 2>that the Fed's cut was a cheap one and perhaps

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<v Speaker 2>wasn't necessary given the economic strength we've had. The concern

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<v Speaker 2>also stems from Trump policies too. How concerned are you

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<v Speaker 2>to be operating potentially in an environment where inflation isn't

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<v Speaker 2>as tame as we thought it was and maybe is

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<v Speaker 2>more sticky.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>Look, I've been pretty adamant about this. When we spoke

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<v Speaker 4>last a few months ago, I said, you know, I

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<v Speaker 4>think rates are going to be higher for longer because

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<v Speaker 4>inflation is not tamed. You know, the FED can say

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<v Speaker 4>what it wants you know, you just have to open

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<v Speaker 4>your eyes and look around, you know, think about the

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<v Speaker 4>last flight you were on and how.

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<v Speaker 3>Crowded it was.

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<v Speaker 4>Or the fact that you're paying eighty five dollars for

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<v Speaker 4>a stake and next week it'll probably.

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<v Speaker 3>Be ninety dollars, you know. Or housing prices right.

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<v Speaker 4>Everywhere people want to live, right, there's not enough homes.

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<v Speaker 4>Housing prices are going up, notwithstanding you know, the backdrop

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<v Speaker 4>of the rate environment, and so we see inflation not

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<v Speaker 4>as beaten but as suppressed. And the more the FED cuts,

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<v Speaker 4>the more you're lifting your hand off that off that

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<v Speaker 4>lever to hold inflation down. And and look, nobody's got

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<v Speaker 4>a crystal ball. But you know, we live in a

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<v Speaker 4>world that is inherent The mega trends that are driving

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<v Speaker 4>the world today.

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<v Speaker 3>Are pretty inflationary.

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<v Speaker 4>You have things like the build out of the digital infrastructure,

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<v Speaker 4>so between you know, chip fabs and data centers and

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<v Speaker 4>the power that's I mean, that's one hundred trillion dollars

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<v Speaker 4>we have to spend over the next decade. Uh the

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<v Speaker 4>uh you know, decarbonization, the deglow mobilization of the economy.

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<v Speaker 4>All of these things are inherently very inflationary. Then later

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<v Speaker 4>on top of that, what might be you know, some

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<v Speaker 4>of the new administration's policies that are you know that

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<v Speaker 4>sound inflationary, you know, deficit spending, some of these other

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<v Speaker 4>programs that are going to add to inflation. It's it's

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<v Speaker 4>very hard to say that inflation is beaten or inflation

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<v Speaker 4>is over. That doesn't mean inflation is going to run away.

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<v Speaker 4>It just means we're going to have to live with

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<v Speaker 4>a higher rate environment for a lot longer.

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<v Speaker 2>And you've been really good and really right on this

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<v Speaker 2>idea that we're going to have a higher rate environment.

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<v Speaker 2>And one of the things you said at a conference

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<v Speaker 2>in Berlin this year, in what feels like a lifetime

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<v Speaker 2>ago in June is that not everything is going to

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<v Speaker 2>be okay, that we're going to have some refinancing coming

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<v Speaker 2>into the market and it's going to be a problem

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<v Speaker 2>for a lot of private capital. Again, that was in June.

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<v Speaker 2>Is the moment of racketing nine.

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<v Speaker 4>Now for sure, I mean we're getting you know, closer

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<v Speaker 4>and closer to this the as I alluded.

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<v Speaker 3>To back then.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, the private equity industry, you know, invested in

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<v Speaker 4>a lot of companies, you know, over the say, the

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<v Speaker 4>five years leading up to twenty twenty two before the

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<v Speaker 4>rate change happened, good companies, but at very full prices.

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<v Speaker 4>So sitting here today, when private equity companies would firms

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<v Speaker 4>would be normally selling their portfolios, there's stuff they're holding

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<v Speaker 4>on to, big portfolios of good companies.

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<v Speaker 3>Right.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll positive that most of these investments are good investments.

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<v Speaker 4>They just paid too much for them given the current

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<v Speaker 4>rate environment, and so they are saleable, but maybe not

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<v Speaker 4>at prices that these private equity firms would be happy with,

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<v Speaker 4>and so they're gonna hold on to them. And by

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<v Speaker 4>holding on to them, you have grumpy LPs who aren't

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<v Speaker 4>getting their cash back at the rate they thought. And

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<v Speaker 4>then you also have refinancing issues. Right, Okay, well, now

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<v Speaker 4>I'm holding this longer, I have to refinance it, and

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<v Speaker 4>so how do I do that. Some companies will have

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<v Speaker 4>no problem, others will have to start being a little

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<v Speaker 4>more creative. And we're absolutely we're absolutely seeing that part

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<v Speaker 4>of our business model is to help those companies, the

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<v Speaker 4>other sponsors that you might need capital somewhere in their

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<v Speaker 4>capital structure to help get through this next hump, because again,

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<v Speaker 4>most of these companies are actually good companies. The sponsor

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<v Speaker 4>just paid the wrong price for it.

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<v Speaker 2>Is the matter made even worse at this moment though,

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<v Speaker 2>than it looked in June, considering we might have more

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<v Speaker 2>inflationary policies coming in twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it only lends credence to my theory.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, we'll put it that way, okay, I think

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<v Speaker 2>that's a great way to put it. The other thing

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<v Speaker 2>we talked about at that time was you had done

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<v Speaker 2>a JV with Intel to build out a big factory

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<v Speaker 2>in Ireland.

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<v Speaker 3>You said you.

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<v Speaker 2>Wanted to do more deals like that. What does the

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<v Speaker 2>pipeline look like for now? These energy necessary for AI

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<v Speaker 2>type deals.

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<v Speaker 4>Pretty massive, you know, there are, and you know the

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<v Speaker 4>energy is one component, but everything I was talking about,

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<v Speaker 4>the de globalization, the digital infrastructure, the decarbonization, all of

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<v Speaker 4>these things are massive capital you know, needs for companies,

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<v Speaker 4>and these companies just don't have access to all the

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<v Speaker 4>capital they need, and so finding ways to partner with

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<v Speaker 4>these companies bringing the right cost of capital to the

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<v Speaker 4>right situation really spanning everything from investment grade always to

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<v Speaker 4>private equity and everything in between, really is the future.

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<v Speaker 4>And that's going to be you know, the name of

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<v Speaker 4>the game for years to come. I mean, we're talking

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<v Speaker 4>about hundreds of trillions of dollars that need to be spent.

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<v Speaker 4>There there's room for us ten times over, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>and lots of others. And that's you know, that's the

0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:43.520
<v Speaker 4>exciting opportunity. And being able to you know, partner with

0:11:43.600 --> 0:11:46.840
<v Speaker 4>lots of amazing companies is what is what makes it great.

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<v Speaker 2>I just want to end with maybe throwing out a

0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:51.040
<v Speaker 2>little bit of red meat to the team at Apollo.

0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.920
<v Speaker 2>Private equity bonuses, according to Johnson Associations, are set to

0:11:55.000 --> 0:11:58.640
<v Speaker 2>rise in twenty twenty four. That's even excluding carried interest.

0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:01.360
<v Speaker 2>Is twenty twenty four to be a good year for bonuses.

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<v Speaker 3>Scott, Danny, you're killing me. Uh no, it's it's it's

0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:07.320
<v Speaker 3>it's a good year. You know, Apollo has been blessed.

0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:12.599
<v Speaker 4>We We've had amazing momentum and continue to have amazing momentum.

0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:12.920
<v Speaker 3>You know.

0:12:13.080 --> 0:12:16.920
<v Speaker 4>Fortunately, most of our employees are stockholders, and uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we're working really hard for our our team, our investors,

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<v Speaker 4>and our shareholders.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a great note to end it on, Scott, Thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much.

0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:24.920
<v Speaker 3>Thank you.

0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:29.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Danny Berger with Apollo co president Scott Kleinman,