WEBVTT - Workers Protest in Modern China, Part 2

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome, Dick. It happened here the podcast that you're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to right now. It's your host, Christopher Long, and we

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<v Speaker 1>are back with part two of our interview with Eli

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<v Speaker 1>Friedman about the reason protests in China. I want to

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<v Speaker 1>go back and talk about lying flat and that whole

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<v Speaker 1>kind of I don't know movement discourse that was happening

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<v Speaker 1>last year, because it seems like the kind of I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know if nihilism is the right word, but this

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like collective understanding that the whole sort of

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<v Speaker 1>bargain of the Chinese social system of you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>this was to some extent extended to everyone, right, like

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<v Speaker 1>the bargain of the Chinese social system of everyone everyone,

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<v Speaker 1>keep your head down, will get rich together. It suddenly

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<v Speaker 1>became clear that this wasn't gonna happen, And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think like in some sense it's possible

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of like, you know, you can you can

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<v Speaker 1>put on your sort of like hard materialist hat and

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<v Speaker 1>you can like look at the number of hammers banging

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<v Speaker 1>out and you can just look at the chirp of

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese GDP graph of the last decade and be like, Okay, well,

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<v Speaker 1>so eventually like what what what? What? It hit like

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<v Speaker 1>two percent? Eventually we were going to have protests. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I guess, I guess I I wanted to talk a

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<v Speaker 1>bit about like, yeah, what line flat was? We covered

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<v Speaker 1>this on the show a long time ago when it

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<v Speaker 1>was happening, But and then also sort of how that

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<v Speaker 1>attitude shift was important or wasn't important. I don't know,

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe it wasn't. I think it was, but yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's very important. Right, So, yeah, you can't just

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<v Speaker 1>be a crude materialist and like mechanically read social protest

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<v Speaker 1>off of some chart of you know, following profitability or

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<v Speaker 1>something like that. Um. But there it is a cultural

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<v Speaker 1>expression of real fundamental changes in the organization of the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese economy. Uh. You know where already talked about how

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<v Speaker 1>the post eighty nine generation was like you go to

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<v Speaker 1>college and like you come out and you know you'll

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<v Speaker 1>you'll be middle class right on average, And that's just

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<v Speaker 1>not at all the case anymore. And young people in

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<v Speaker 1>China and and older people, middle aged people you know,

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<v Speaker 1>who are who have children, who are who are going

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<v Speaker 1>through the system, um, feel immense pressure in like immense

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<v Speaker 1>competition in all spheres of life beginning from a young

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<v Speaker 1>age in elementary school, all the way up through high school,

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<v Speaker 1>through the super competitive and intense university admissions process, and

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<v Speaker 1>then after graduating university and getting a job, and then

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<v Speaker 1>getting a job that can you know, um uh, you

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<v Speaker 1>can earn enough money to be able to afford an apartment.

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<v Speaker 1>And so here we have to understand you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>cost of housing and all of the other costs associated

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<v Speaker 1>with social reproduction. So the like the cost of care workers. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>if middle class people in places like Shanghai and Beijing

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<v Speaker 1>expect to have domestic workers, um, you know, looking after

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<v Speaker 1>their children, they expect to be able to hire tutors

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<v Speaker 1>who can um, you know, and comtutor their children in

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<v Speaker 1>English or in math um. And so just people feel

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<v Speaker 1>under unbelievable sure, and this is in a situation that

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<v Speaker 1>part of the reason that the pressure has is really

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<v Speaker 1>ramped up is that there are fewer good paying jobs.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, youth unemployment now in China is around um

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<v Speaker 1>and so one of the responses to that is just

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<v Speaker 1>forget about it. We're you know, we're gonna lie flat,

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna we're gonna reject all of this. There's different

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<v Speaker 1>expressions and I don't actually the sort of like you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sociologists and me is like, well, we don't actually have

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<v Speaker 1>numbers to know how many people are are lying flat

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<v Speaker 1>and like that is true, Like maybe most people are

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<v Speaker 1>still just going to work and you know, doing their job,

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<v Speaker 1>but there's enough you know, stories, and certainly in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of cultural residence of people just doing the bare minimum

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<v Speaker 1>at work or working for short periods of time, earning

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<v Speaker 1>just enough money to survive and not worrying about meeting

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<v Speaker 1>those kind of social expectations around buying a car, buying

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<v Speaker 1>an apartment and getting married, having kids, because people just

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<v Speaker 1>see it as as kind of it's kind of hopeless. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And so I think that's a really important backdrop because

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<v Speaker 1>we have to understand that some level that these protests

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<v Speaker 1>are about a sense of hopelessness, right be at economic opportunities,

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<v Speaker 1>be at the political system where cigent being is going

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<v Speaker 1>to rain as long as he wants, or be at

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<v Speaker 1>zero COVID, where you know, at any given moment, you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be locked inside your apartment and you're not gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be able to see your friends or or do anything.

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<v Speaker 1>So um. Yeah, So I think it's very relevant. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>And I wanted to, I guess also to This is

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<v Speaker 1>something I talked about on this podcast a lot, but

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<v Speaker 1>I need to, like I don't like drill into people's heads,

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<v Speaker 1>like just the sheer amount that people in China are working,

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<v Speaker 1>just like like the number of hours, a number of

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<v Speaker 1>days a week, the the amount of effort that is

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<v Speaker 1>being put in is like it is, it is. It

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<v Speaker 1>is a level of Rowster plus value extraction that like

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<v Speaker 1>like like most places in the world haven't seen in

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<v Speaker 1>like a court like in like half a century. It

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<v Speaker 1>is like or even longer than that. Like it is,

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<v Speaker 1>it is a a truly stunning, like a truly stunning

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<v Speaker 1>level of exploitation in terms of things like nine six

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of the people who are working schedules in

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<v Speaker 1>a way worse than that, who don't really ever get

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<v Speaker 1>like talked about because they're not tech workers or they're

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<v Speaker 1>not people who have sort of like a platform Chinese society. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's extremely normalized, you know, I mean, like the

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<v Speaker 1>thing which which first of all, it is maybe worth

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<v Speaker 1>mentioning that China legally has a forty hour work week.

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<v Speaker 1>You're only allowed to work thirty six hours of overtime

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<v Speaker 1>on month, right, so probably you know, not more than

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<v Speaker 1>forty nine or fifty hours a week. That's that's like

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<v Speaker 1>the legal the legal standard. Nobody even remotely pretends like

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<v Speaker 1>that is a thing in any industry. There's legal debates

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<v Speaker 1>about like whether it applies to professional, white collar you know,

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<v Speaker 1>salaried workers or not. But um, you know, when the

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<v Speaker 1>thing came out and there was a pretty cool i

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<v Speaker 1>think movement based mostly online among tech workers, it was

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<v Speaker 1>it was great. It was very inspiring. And also every

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<v Speaker 1>single blue collar worker like we've been waking units six

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<v Speaker 1>for decades, you know, um, and so so it is

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<v Speaker 1>it is very normal across these these different kinds of

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<v Speaker 1>of stratum for sure. Um, one of the cool things

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<v Speaker 1>about ninetight six is people were we're revolting against it

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<v Speaker 1>and saying like this is an unacceptable way to live.

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<v Speaker 1>And again it comes back to this whole thing of

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<v Speaker 1>like all of these feelings of you know, these enhanced

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<v Speaker 1>pressures right where it's just like how do I live

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<v Speaker 1>in this city? How do I find like decent housing?

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<v Speaker 1>Like if you know, if I want to have like

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<v Speaker 1>a social life, which is the thing that some people

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<v Speaker 1>in their twenties want to have, you know, like how

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<v Speaker 1>do I do that? It's impossible under those circumstances. Um

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<v Speaker 1>so so again, like you can't read these movements mechanically

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<v Speaker 1>off of these these uh, these structural changes. But like

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<v Speaker 1>that is a thing that has been happening that is unresolved.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not at least for the you know, the blank

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<v Speaker 1>paper protesters, the kind of the more elite students and stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>they haven't specifically articulated um, their grievances as labor demands, um.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's it's at least an important backdrop to what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening today. Yeah, and I think it's remember like how

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<v Speaker 1>I think I think this was like Mide twenty nine keeen.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm trying remember when I when I saw this specific video.

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<v Speaker 1>But there there there, there there was a video from

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<v Speaker 1>the Hong Kong protests that was like it's always it was.

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<v Speaker 1>It was like literally one of these classic like like

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<v Speaker 1>sort of Twitter things, but like what do you want out?

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<v Speaker 1>What do you want to do after the revolution? And

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<v Speaker 1>it was like most of it was like I want

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<v Speaker 1>to start a bakery, like I want to work in

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<v Speaker 1>a library. And it strikes me that there's these things

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<v Speaker 1>that get subsumed under you know, when when when when

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<v Speaker 1>you see a pro democracy movement, right when when you

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<v Speaker 1>see you know, like the sort of well, I guess

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<v Speaker 1>that there's something interesting to hear about the Like like

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<v Speaker 1>day one of the protests, there were a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>videos that we're talking about Iran, and that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>seemed to like like the very early videos were about

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<v Speaker 1>sort of solidarity with the protests in the room sheet

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<v Speaker 1>and then like it was like it was like specifically

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<v Speaker 1>tying that to Iran and then to sort of pro

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<v Speaker 1>democracy demands, and then later on you get the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of like like the Shanghai like down with the party denimping,

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<v Speaker 1>like we went to occracy and free speech stuff. But

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<v Speaker 1>it strikes me that like a lot of the times

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<v Speaker 1>when you see people making those demands, it's because they

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<v Speaker 1>think that like you know, it's like there there there's

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<v Speaker 1>a whole set of of like things that they like,

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<v Speaker 1>things that they believe about the future and about what

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<v Speaker 1>will happen in the future that are like not articulated

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<v Speaker 1>in the demands, but if you talked about if you

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<v Speaker 1>talk about them, like if you talk to people about

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<v Speaker 1>what they think is going to happen after that, there's

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<v Speaker 1>this whole sort of like opening up of stuff that

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<v Speaker 1>they think will be like the necessary results of like

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the one party state. And it's like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I don't want him, Like I don't know,

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<v Speaker 1>I had this debate a lot with like, like there's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of like Chinese international student you get in the

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<v Speaker 1>US who like comes to the US and it's like

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<v Speaker 1>immediately like enormously enamored with the US. It's it's it's

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<v Speaker 1>sort of the mirror image of how we have a

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<v Speaker 1>bunch of people who are like incredibly enamored with the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese state, and then you get people who come here

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<v Speaker 1>and are like incredibly enamored the American state, and it's like, well, yeah, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>this politician will see you and they will talk to you. However, Comma,

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<v Speaker 1>in about two years they will be voting to throw

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<v Speaker 1>you in prison. So like, but obviously, like both people

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<v Speaker 1>in China understand the Chinese system sucks and that the

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<v Speaker 1>promises that people like in the US belief about it

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<v Speaker 1>are fake. And then people in the US understand that

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<v Speaker 1>you can get a multiparty democracy and things because they'll

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<v Speaker 1>be absolutely shit. But yeah, yeah, you know, it strikes

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<v Speaker 1>me that there's a lot of stuff sort of embedded

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<v Speaker 1>in in in these demands that are like not really

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<v Speaker 1>explod articulated until later. And then that's also, I guess

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<v Speaker 1>been a hard part about these protests that like I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know, it's hard to get information out. You can

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<v Speaker 1>get shortened views with people. Mostly what you're getting are

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<v Speaker 1>like thirty seconds of footage of people yelling at a cop, right, yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean there's a lot going on. Like if you

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<v Speaker 1>have this one, this tiny little opening, and then instantly

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<v Speaker 1>you have protests in like all of these cities all

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<v Speaker 1>over the country, dozens of universities, protests among you know,

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<v Speaker 1>working class migrants, like middle class people in Shanghai, like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, all all across the country. Like that suggests

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<v Speaker 1>that people have a variety of sets of grievances and

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<v Speaker 1>they're kind of funneling them through this this meta narrative

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<v Speaker 1>around ending the lockdown, which is not to diminish the

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<v Speaker 1>significance of the actual lockdowns, which are are called causing

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<v Speaker 1>real human suffering. But there's definitely a lot going on,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, one of the big ones is what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening in Shinjong, Like it's we still don't really know

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<v Speaker 1>how Weakers are feeling about all of this. The fact

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<v Speaker 1>that like all of the all the Protestants in the

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<v Speaker 1>big Eastern cities are about commemorating what happened in ermchy

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<v Speaker 1>Uh in a fire that killed mostly, if not exclusively, Weaker.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like that that that deserves to be talked about. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>We don't really know how like the Han people on

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<v Speaker 1>the streets in the Eastern cities, like if they're thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about this this backdrop of you know, massive repression, surveillance

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<v Speaker 1>and mass internment of of Weakers and other Muslim minorities. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's another thing. Uh And and I think the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing goes for the treatment of migrant workers in

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<v Speaker 1>in fox Con and these other um blue collar workers

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<v Speaker 1>who were put into the closed loop. Like to what

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<v Speaker 1>extent our urban um Han people still kind of willing

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<v Speaker 1>to go along with sacrificing migrant workers and treating them

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<v Speaker 1>as as as second class citizens, or is their possibility

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<v Speaker 1>of developing some real sense of of solidarity um with

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<v Speaker 1>ending not just the closed loop, but ending you know,

0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:04.000
<v Speaker 1>like kuko based discrimination, ending the camps in shin Jong.

0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:06.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, I mean, you can kind of spin out

0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:09.240
<v Speaker 1>from there, if if you are interested in thinking about

0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:11.880
<v Speaker 1>what it would mean to democratize China in like a

0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:24.240
<v Speaker 1>in a robust sense of the word, I think points

0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.320
<v Speaker 1>that are never thing about these protests that are complicated, right,

0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:30.280
<v Speaker 1>which is that like they are cross class in a

0:12:30.360 --> 0:12:34.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of ways, but I don't know, it seems to

0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:37.240
<v Speaker 1>me like the way they're manifesting is very much down

0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 1>class lines. Like Okay, I genuinely don't understand what's going

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:43.680
<v Speaker 1>on in Guangho. That like every single video I see

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 1>at Guangho is like seventy people throwing bottles at a cop,

0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:49.920
<v Speaker 1>and like every video I see out of like Shanghai

0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.800
<v Speaker 1>is like six people holding a piece of paper. But

0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:54.800
<v Speaker 1>it very much seems like, you know, like when when

0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:57.120
<v Speaker 1>when when when the cops are getting to like these

0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:59.640
<v Speaker 1>these sort of like these working class neighborhood these neighborhoods

0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:03.200
<v Speaker 1>that are like a informal housing, these neighborhoods that are

0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:05.600
<v Speaker 1>full of migrant workers. There were these really really intense

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:08.000
<v Speaker 1>conflicts with the police in ways that like kind of

0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:10.960
<v Speaker 1>aren't happening. Well, I mean, okay, that's because the kind

0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 1>of stuff seems to be happening in a room sheet.

0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.040
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's happening there partially because you know,

0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.920
<v Speaker 1>this is like well okay, I don't know off thought

0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 1>in my head whether it's more militarized than Tibet, but

0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.520
<v Speaker 1>like one of the most militarized, like one of the

0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:25.400
<v Speaker 1>most heavily police places in China. And then also people

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 1>are just really like the the immediate and palpable anger

0:13:30.679 --> 0:13:32.959
<v Speaker 1>seems to be the highest there because you know, I

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.520
<v Speaker 1>mean like like it you're you're going to be more

0:13:36.559 --> 0:13:38.839
<v Speaker 1>piste off when it's people in your city or like

0:13:38.920 --> 0:13:42.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, you you maybe were like three blocks away

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:47.559
<v Speaker 1>from this fire. Yeah, like these people. But yeah, one

0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 1>of one piece about about Urch is that they've been

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:53.600
<v Speaker 1>in some form of lockdown for like a hundred days,

0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:57.200
<v Speaker 1>you know. Yeah, so that's not and and part of

0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:58.920
<v Speaker 1>that has to do with the fact that it is

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.480
<v Speaker 1>this colonial setting where they feel like they can do

0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:03.319
<v Speaker 1>things to people that they can't do in Beijing and

0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:05.480
<v Speaker 1>Channg like people in San are not going to do that, right,

0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.600
<v Speaker 1>It's just like it's inconceivable. Um, there's obviously a lot

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 1>of Han people in Ear and she is actually a

0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>majority Han. Now yeah, I think, yeah, um that that

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:19.160
<v Speaker 1>sounds right to me, and shin Jong is increasingly Han

0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:22.960
<v Speaker 1>as well, although I believe we are still constitute a plurality.

0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:28.600
<v Speaker 1>So you know, there's just like each the lockdowns kind

0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 1>of filtered down to these different localities and into different

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:35.080
<v Speaker 1>communities with their different social and class compositions in different

0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 1>kinds of ways and have different kinds of effects. Right,

0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:40.080
<v Speaker 1>So you can put people in lockdown in shin Jong

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.200
<v Speaker 1>for a hundred days and they're going to be really

0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:45.120
<v Speaker 1>pissed when they get out. In the case of Guang Joe,

0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, this was also part of the sequence that

0:14:47.640 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 1>I think has been written out of the official narrative.

0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 1>It's not it wasn't just fox Con. You had the

0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:56.400
<v Speaker 1>initial fox Con escape in late October early November, and

0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.760
<v Speaker 1>then you had these pretty intense riots that happened in

0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.960
<v Speaker 1>Guang Joe, but were in these urban villages, so called

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:07.040
<v Speaker 1>urban villages largely informal housing, very densely populated, that are

0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 1>overwhelmingly migrant workers. In this case, it was mostly people

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.080
<v Speaker 1>from Hubei Um, which is which is where Wuhan is

0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:18.040
<v Speaker 1>and Um and so you know, just those migrant communities

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.240
<v Speaker 1>were put into lockdown in Guangzho. So if you were

0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 1>over in yeah, if you over in Tianaha District, which

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:27.360
<v Speaker 1>is the sort of the the newer, like fancier part

0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:30.240
<v Speaker 1>of Guangho with lots of high rises, Um, you know,

0:15:30.400 --> 0:15:33.920
<v Speaker 1>those places were not under lockdown, and so they they

0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:36.840
<v Speaker 1>put the migrant communities, and I saw some like really

0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.640
<v Speaker 1>not nice stuff, you know, people just being like, oh yeah,

0:15:39.680 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 1>you know. The the local Guangjo people on the other

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:43.680
<v Speaker 1>side of the river are just like going about their

0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 1>life and and they're they're okay with what's happening to

0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:50.040
<v Speaker 1>the migrants. And the migrants were, as is the case

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>in some of these earlier lockdowns, actually facing real subsistence crisis,

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:55.600
<v Speaker 1>like they didn't have enough food to eat, and they

0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:59.720
<v Speaker 1>couldn't leave to try to get food. Um. So that's

0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.280
<v Speaker 1>why you saw these super intense riots. And that's why

0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:04.760
<v Speaker 1>you see them confronting the police and you know, screaming

0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:06.840
<v Speaker 1>at them, throwing things at them. You see tear gas,

0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:09.840
<v Speaker 1>all of these things. I think. So I think that's

0:16:09.880 --> 0:16:12.640
<v Speaker 1>the only place I've seen tear gas so far, Like

0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>maybe in a room sheet. I'm not there may have

0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 1>been a video, I don't I don't remember specifically their

0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.760
<v Speaker 1>room sheet, but definitely like only place have seen that

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 1>level of repression. Yeah, yeah, no, it was, it was

0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know the Jung Joe Fox con was

0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.920
<v Speaker 1>probably the most violent and the larger scale. Um, but

0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:32.120
<v Speaker 1>you know that was it was a little bit different.

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 1>I Gwang Joe. It's kind of like smaller streets they're fighting,

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, street by street. So um yeah, so they

0:16:37.280 --> 0:16:39.880
<v Speaker 1>have a different experience of people in Shanghai. Again not

0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.000
<v Speaker 1>to minimize their demands, and I think it's it's important

0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:49.360
<v Speaker 1>for people to find points of commonality, um against this policy. Um,

0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:51.600
<v Speaker 1>but it's you know, it's not like that if if

0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:55.760
<v Speaker 1>you're if you're a middle class person Han person in Shanghai,

0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.800
<v Speaker 1>which is again not to minimize the very real difficulties

0:16:58.800 --> 0:17:01.320
<v Speaker 1>that those folks have been facing. Is well something this

0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:03.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of you know, I think that there there there's

0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:05.479
<v Speaker 1>there's like another group of people who should probably talk

0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:08.480
<v Speaker 1>about a little bit, which is like this sort of

0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.639
<v Speaker 1>downwardly mobile class a business owners who have been kind

0:17:11.680 --> 0:17:13.840
<v Speaker 1>of just getting annihlated by the lockdowns. And does that

0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:16.920
<v Speaker 1>that happen in the US too, Although the Chinese version

0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 1>of it seems they're like less marginally less absolutely psychotic,

0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:27.280
<v Speaker 1>Like they haven't tried, but they haven't tried to like

0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:31.639
<v Speaker 1>kidnap a governor yet, Like they're not like they're not

0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:37.560
<v Speaker 1>as fascist as their American counterparts. Yeah, but it's it's

0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.080
<v Speaker 1>it seems it seems like there's a kind of interesting

0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:42.760
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, there's there's a class dynamic that kind

0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:44.920
<v Speaker 1>of reminds me of occupy and that you have this

0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:49.920
<v Speaker 1>sort of like kind of tenuous alliance between like some

0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:52.800
<v Speaker 1>some parts of the working class, these elite students, and

0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:57.920
<v Speaker 1>like this downwardly mobile middle class. But it strikes me that,

0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:00.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean, that's the sort of a finding

0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:02.640
<v Speaker 1>thing about occupying. I think like the defining thing about

0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:05.560
<v Speaker 1>the whole sort of two thousand eleven doesn't thirteen wave

0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:08.320
<v Speaker 1>of protests was that like it was it was really

0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.040
<v Speaker 1>really easy to get people together into a physical space,

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:13.919
<v Speaker 1>and when when you were in that single physical space,

0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:15.280
<v Speaker 1>it was like, you know, it's not it's not like

0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:18.720
<v Speaker 1>classes appeared, but it was like, you know, it was,

0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:20.360
<v Speaker 1>it was, it was. It was. It was a way

0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:24.639
<v Speaker 1>in which sort of like classes were mixing and you

0:18:24.640 --> 0:18:26.960
<v Speaker 1>could form this new kind of like identity based around

0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 1>like what you're doing in this place, and it doesn't

0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.560
<v Speaker 1>really seem like that's possible here. It really seems like,

0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, like there's this huge like you know,

0:18:36.000 --> 0:18:38.680
<v Speaker 1>this this is a protest that is like happening in

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:40.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of different places at the same time. But

0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:44.560
<v Speaker 1>it's like it doesn't. Yeah, the segmented they don't and

0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:46.159
<v Speaker 1>they don't they don't really have a sort of like

0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:49.720
<v Speaker 1>cohesive social identity that in a way that you could

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:52.919
<v Speaker 1>get out of a bunch of people being in the

0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:55.800
<v Speaker 1>same place. Yeah. No, I think that's right. I mean

0:18:55.800 --> 0:19:00.679
<v Speaker 1>they're spatially segmented. Um. Something someone pointed out out on Twitter.

0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.439
<v Speaker 1>I can't remember who, but they're drawing comparisons to the

0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.920
<v Speaker 1>protests and the kind of the physical arrangements where people

0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:11.119
<v Speaker 1>are living and so particularly given you know, the online censorship,

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:13.120
<v Speaker 1>like that's been really important. So you have these worker

0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:15.879
<v Speaker 1>dormitories and fox con like you can organize by actually

0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:18.919
<v Speaker 1>talking to people with student dormitories, right, Um, and then

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:21.639
<v Speaker 1>you have much smaller protests among the you know, the

0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:25.080
<v Speaker 1>middle class people who are able to circulate things online.

0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:27.199
<v Speaker 1>And so the consequence of that is is they are

0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:31.320
<v Speaker 1>pretty segmented and I think, you know, everyone has their

0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:34.359
<v Speaker 1>own grievance with zero COVID, but these grievances are actually

0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>pretty different. Right, So the fox con workers don't like

0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:39.959
<v Speaker 1>the closed loop management system where you know, where they

0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:43.720
<v Speaker 1>can't leave, where, where they're subjected to unsafe conditions, etcetera. Um,

0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, the petty bourgeoise like they don't like the

0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.200
<v Speaker 1>fact that there's no foot traffic you know, coming into

0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:52.240
<v Speaker 1>their shops. Right. And um, I don't know if you

0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:54.040
<v Speaker 1>saw the video of the guy like kicking down the

0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:58.399
<v Speaker 1>wall with a soup latal and it specifically, yeah, I

0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 1>mean it was it was very theatrical, dramatic and uh

0:20:02.040 --> 0:20:04.560
<v Speaker 1>a great video you know in terms of like the

0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:07.840
<v Speaker 1>class position and yeah, you can see how it can

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:12.320
<v Speaker 1>kind of capsize into fash quickly. Um. And then like

0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>the students, you know, they want to be able to

0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:17.320
<v Speaker 1>live normal student lives and like leave their dormitories. And

0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:20.160
<v Speaker 1>that's the thing that I think students anywhere can associate with.

0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:22.880
<v Speaker 1>So it's like, yeah, they're all against the zero COVID policy,

0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:25.000
<v Speaker 1>but then it's kind of like what are their politics

0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:27.760
<v Speaker 1>after that? And I think if if this is going

0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.800
<v Speaker 1>to open up, um, you know, some kind of more

0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:33.840
<v Speaker 1>expansive political vision, Like it's gonna be hard to maintain

0:20:33.880 --> 0:20:36.760
<v Speaker 1>that like that unity. Right, the students are already talking

0:20:36.760 --> 0:20:39.800
<v Speaker 1>about like you know, censorship, freedom of speech, those things

0:20:39.800 --> 0:20:42.920
<v Speaker 1>which I support, I think are very good. You're probably

0:20:42.960 --> 0:20:45.879
<v Speaker 1>not gonna get the petty boudgeoisie to like risk arrest

0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:48.359
<v Speaker 1>and violence with the cops, you know, over like holding

0:20:48.440 --> 0:20:51.600
<v Speaker 1>up a blank white piece of paper, um, you know.

0:20:51.640 --> 0:20:54.040
<v Speaker 1>And then the micrant workers have another whole set of things,

0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:57.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, around like basic like health infrastructure, like you know,

0:20:57.160 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 1>can they get access to decent healthcare in the places

0:20:59.280 --> 0:21:01.440
<v Speaker 1>where they're where they're living. And that's not going to

0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:04.680
<v Speaker 1>resonate to the same extent with the students. So yeah,

0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:07.880
<v Speaker 1>the one I think about a lot was like there's

0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:09.680
<v Speaker 1>a video going around it this guy being like I

0:21:09.680 --> 0:21:11.240
<v Speaker 1>don't care about politics. I just want to go to

0:21:11.280 --> 0:21:13.520
<v Speaker 1>the movies, and I was like, this is the most

0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:16.800
<v Speaker 1>American person in China, Like this is the one person

0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:18.760
<v Speaker 1>that I'm like, okay, like that, you know, and and

0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:20.600
<v Speaker 1>like that there is that kind of sort of like

0:21:20.640 --> 0:21:22.280
<v Speaker 1>I just I just want to live my normal life

0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.320
<v Speaker 1>like thing that's happening, and then that that I think

0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:28.240
<v Speaker 1>is a kind of recognizable American impulse. But then you

0:21:28.320 --> 0:21:30.040
<v Speaker 1>have the stuff that's like did you see did you

0:21:30.040 --> 0:21:33.800
<v Speaker 1>see those pictures that were going around of like the

0:21:33.800 --> 0:21:35.919
<v Speaker 1>hospitals they were putting megicant workers in were just like

0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:39.119
<v Speaker 1>the entire bathroom floor is just like covered in poop

0:21:39.280 --> 0:21:43.399
<v Speaker 1>and like awful. Yeah, it's like the whole whole bathroom

0:21:43.400 --> 0:21:46.960
<v Speaker 1>floors is just flooded. There's like just like the the

0:21:46.960 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 1>the you can't flush toilet paper down it, so there's

0:21:49.280 --> 0:21:53.160
<v Speaker 1>just these like mountains of toilet paper, and I think, like, yeah,

0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:55.320
<v Speaker 1>it's awful. Like that the difference between the people whose

0:21:55.320 --> 0:21:57.200
<v Speaker 1>things are like I want to go to the movies

0:21:57.560 --> 0:22:01.000
<v Speaker 1>and the people whose demand is like please stop locking

0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.840
<v Speaker 1>me in this, like like people like you know that

0:22:03.840 --> 0:22:05.199
<v Speaker 1>that was I guess. I guess. The other sort of

0:22:05.280 --> 0:22:09.119
<v Speaker 1>lost thing that seemed to be pretty big in Chinese

0:22:09.160 --> 0:22:11.480
<v Speaker 1>social media that I don't that wasn't talked about much

0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:15.760
<v Speaker 1>here was the uh there was this bus that capsized

0:22:15.840 --> 0:22:18.520
<v Speaker 1>that killed like twenty seven people who were being taken

0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:22.000
<v Speaker 1>like to a facility to specifically to hold like you know,

0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:23.320
<v Speaker 1>this is like what one of one of these sort

0:22:23.320 --> 0:22:26.639
<v Speaker 1>of like I don't I don't even really want to

0:22:26.640 --> 0:22:30.240
<v Speaker 1>dignify them by calling them hospitals, because they're like, yeah,

0:22:30.560 --> 0:22:33.760
<v Speaker 1>like just a complete disaster. Um. But where were people

0:22:33.800 --> 0:22:37.640
<v Speaker 1>were being held, like held because they had Yeah? Yeah,

0:22:38.119 --> 0:22:40.000
<v Speaker 1>And I don't know, it seems like that there's a

0:22:40.040 --> 0:22:43.560
<v Speaker 1>really big sort of like you know, I mean, I

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:47.160
<v Speaker 1>guess it's like like the the protests are reflecting all

0:22:47.200 --> 0:22:49.680
<v Speaker 1>of all of the sort of like existing classified in

0:22:49.760 --> 0:22:53.399
<v Speaker 1>Chinese society in ways that I think are are pretty

0:22:53.440 --> 0:22:57.080
<v Speaker 1>obvious if you look at it, which I guess in

0:22:57.119 --> 0:23:00.040
<v Speaker 1>some sense like this this does strike me as the

0:23:00.040 --> 0:23:02.960
<v Speaker 1>most gentlemin esque thing. But look, the most unuminous thing

0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:04.920
<v Speaker 1>about it is the way that the media has been

0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:09.200
<v Speaker 1>like specifically covering the grievances of exactly like two groups

0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:12.919
<v Speaker 1>of people, which is like the students and like, and

0:23:12.920 --> 0:23:15.120
<v Speaker 1>then all of the labor stuff has just vanished after

0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:21.120
<v Speaker 1>about day two. Yeah yeah, yeah for sure. Um. And

0:23:21.400 --> 0:23:24.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean I don't have much optimism that that that

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:29.280
<v Speaker 1>the coverage will change, um, But you know, there there

0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:34.480
<v Speaker 1>is an experience, um that middle class people I think

0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:37.440
<v Speaker 1>have had pretty acutely going back at least to the

0:23:37.440 --> 0:23:41.159
<v Speaker 1>Shanghai lockdown, of this realization that there actually are no

0:23:42.040 --> 0:23:45.240
<v Speaker 1>limits on state power, right, And that to them was

0:23:45.320 --> 0:23:47.800
<v Speaker 1>kind of like a shock. You know. They're like, oh,

0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:49.119
<v Speaker 1>like I thought I was just gonna be able to

0:23:49.160 --> 0:23:50.920
<v Speaker 1>go about my life like as long as I didn't

0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:53.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, demand to be able to vote for the president.

0:23:53.920 --> 0:23:56.679
<v Speaker 1>Like I can have a job. I can, um, you know,

0:23:56.760 --> 0:23:58.959
<v Speaker 1>go eat hot pot or you know, get whatever kind

0:23:58.960 --> 0:24:01.120
<v Speaker 1>of delicious food I want having in these big cities,

0:24:01.560 --> 0:24:04.800
<v Speaker 1>can travel internationally. You know, all of these things are

0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:08.720
<v Speaker 1>you know more or less okay, Um, there's been lots

0:24:08.760 --> 0:24:10.399
<v Speaker 1>of you know, there's lots of other people in training

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:13.280
<v Speaker 1>society for him, that's never been the experience, right, most

0:24:13.320 --> 0:24:17.800
<v Speaker 1>importantly the minorities and the workers and the migrant workers

0:24:17.800 --> 0:24:21.879
<v Speaker 1>who have always you know, experienced that raw and unchecked

0:24:21.880 --> 0:24:25.520
<v Speaker 1>power of the state. And so, you know, does does

0:24:25.600 --> 0:24:28.720
<v Speaker 1>this have the capacity to kind of bring them together?

0:24:29.160 --> 0:24:30.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's going to be extremely difficult to do,

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:34.159
<v Speaker 1>especially because there aren't like spaces for political organizing and

0:24:34.200 --> 0:24:38.000
<v Speaker 1>working through these differences in a constructive way. Yeah. I mean,

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:40.520
<v Speaker 1>I will say that the one thing that kind of

0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:43.600
<v Speaker 1>that strikes me as something that like is just different

0:24:43.760 --> 0:24:46.959
<v Speaker 1>about this cycle is that, like I don't know, I don't, like,

0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:50.720
<v Speaker 1>I don't think I've ever seen in my lifetime outside

0:24:50.720 --> 0:24:55.240
<v Speaker 1>of like really tiny maoist sex like people openly calling

0:24:55.280 --> 0:24:57.879
<v Speaker 1>for the downfall of the government, like just in in

0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:01.040
<v Speaker 1>a kind of like large a stemic way, and like

0:25:01.080 --> 0:25:05.080
<v Speaker 1>it it seems like I don't know, maybe maybe the

0:25:05.119 --> 0:25:09.040
<v Speaker 1>censors will sort of get control back, but it really

0:25:09.080 --> 0:25:11.639
<v Speaker 1>seems like there's been this kind of floodgate that's opened

0:25:12.400 --> 0:25:16.720
<v Speaker 1>where suddenly like there's a there's a brief moment where

0:25:16.760 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 1>like it suddenly became possible to talk about things where

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:21.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, like like two months ago, it was like

0:25:22.000 --> 0:25:24.560
<v Speaker 1>one guy laid aside on a bridge and like this

0:25:24.640 --> 0:25:25.879
<v Speaker 1>was this was like the biggest thing that had ever

0:25:25.920 --> 0:25:28.560
<v Speaker 1>happened in Chinese society whatever, etcet et cetera. And then suddenly,

0:25:28.560 --> 0:25:31.240
<v Speaker 1>like you know, you just have people on the streets

0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:34.359
<v Speaker 1>or Shanghai like just chanting stuff that wasn't even on

0:25:34.440 --> 0:25:38.359
<v Speaker 1>that banner, and like, I don't know, like it really

0:25:38.400 --> 0:25:42.399
<v Speaker 1>seems like like it's it's not like they've actually like

0:25:42.520 --> 0:25:44.640
<v Speaker 1>fully lost control of the country or anything, like they're

0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:46.960
<v Speaker 1>not even close to that, but it's it's like the

0:25:47.480 --> 0:25:50.280
<v Speaker 1>sort of like the sort of regime of terror and

0:25:50.359 --> 0:25:52.240
<v Speaker 1>fear that had been in place to keep people from

0:25:52.240 --> 0:25:56.080
<v Speaker 1>doing this kind of stuff has fallen off a little bit. Yeah,

0:25:56.119 --> 0:25:58.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I I'd be very curious to know what

0:25:58.760 --> 0:26:01.560
<v Speaker 1>the vibe is like in China, and obviously I have

0:26:01.640 --> 0:26:05.719
<v Speaker 1>not been there for a while. Um, but like, and

0:26:05.760 --> 0:26:08.680
<v Speaker 1>this is wildly speculative, and if you have any Chinese

0:26:09.000 --> 0:26:11.160
<v Speaker 1>listeners who want to correct me, I would be glad

0:26:11.200 --> 0:26:14.200
<v Speaker 1>to have some more information about this. But my feeling

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:17.919
<v Speaker 1>from Hofar is that you know, like she Jinping is

0:26:17.960 --> 0:26:21.320
<v Speaker 1>just like you can't you can't say anything about him,

0:26:21.520 --> 0:26:25.000
<v Speaker 1>and that even in like private spaces, you know, people

0:26:25.600 --> 0:26:28.360
<v Speaker 1>just like don't feel like the ability to kind of

0:26:29.119 --> 0:26:32.520
<v Speaker 1>imagine something different and like that has been changed. Like

0:26:32.800 --> 0:26:34.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we're going to see a lot more

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:37.680
<v Speaker 1>people on the streets chanting down with she be down

0:26:37.720 --> 0:26:40.399
<v Speaker 1>with the Communist Party, Like it's you know, it's a

0:26:40.480 --> 0:26:42.679
<v Speaker 1>risky it's a risky thing to do. But I do

0:26:42.760 --> 0:26:44.840
<v Speaker 1>think that like now at least people know that there's

0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:47.520
<v Speaker 1>other other people in the country that are thinking the

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:50.760
<v Speaker 1>same things that they're thinking. And then at least within

0:26:51.359 --> 0:26:54.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, like you know, face to face interactions that

0:26:54.600 --> 0:26:56.920
<v Speaker 1>people might be a little bit more willing to kind

0:26:56.920 --> 0:26:59.720
<v Speaker 1>of say like, oh, like these protests happened, that was

0:26:59.760 --> 0:27:03.040
<v Speaker 1>pretty crazy, like let's talk about that, um and so

0:27:03.040 --> 0:27:05.399
<v Speaker 1>so so that to me is optimistic. UM. And I

0:27:05.440 --> 0:27:07.919
<v Speaker 1>do hope that more of this organizing can take place,

0:27:08.400 --> 0:27:10.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, offline, because I think that's the only safe

0:27:10.600 --> 0:27:13.359
<v Speaker 1>way to do it. Um. So, So yeah, I I

0:27:14.600 --> 0:27:17.680
<v Speaker 1>think something has changed significantly. And you see it here,

0:27:17.880 --> 0:27:20.000
<v Speaker 1>you know. I mean, I've been teaching Chinese students for

0:27:20.040 --> 0:27:23.440
<v Speaker 1>ten years. Um, there's no question that people are interested,

0:27:23.880 --> 0:27:26.679
<v Speaker 1>um in talking about things now in a in a

0:27:26.720 --> 0:27:28.840
<v Speaker 1>more open way than was the case a couple of

0:27:28.920 --> 0:27:30.800
<v Speaker 1>years ago. And like Herreck Cornell, we had we had

0:27:30.800 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 1>a little vigil for um F and G as well,

0:27:34.920 --> 0:27:37.520
<v Speaker 1>and people were chanting, you know, down with Ci Jin

0:27:37.560 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 1>ping um, which is kind of like okay, you're you know,

0:27:40.320 --> 0:27:42.560
<v Speaker 1>you're in the good New York, Like it's not dangerous. Well,

0:27:42.680 --> 0:27:46.040
<v Speaker 1>I think students feel it to be dangerous, and definitely

0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:48.320
<v Speaker 1>a month or two ago would have felt it to

0:27:48.400 --> 0:27:51.760
<v Speaker 1>be quite dangerous. So yeah, and I guess we probably

0:27:51.800 --> 0:27:55.840
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't like completely downplay the fact that like the CCP

0:27:56.080 --> 0:27:58.920
<v Speaker 1>has international networks in a way that's for sure, Like

0:27:59.320 --> 0:28:01.520
<v Speaker 1>the way tenden to get covered in the press is

0:28:01.640 --> 0:28:04.320
<v Speaker 1>very sort of like this kind of like right wing

0:28:04.320 --> 0:28:07.520
<v Speaker 1>fear mongering, but's like no, these people do exist, and like, yeah,

0:28:07.560 --> 0:28:10.240
<v Speaker 1>like it is possible for you to like tweet something

0:28:10.240 --> 0:28:13.040
<v Speaker 1>while you're in the US and then like someone in

0:28:13.160 --> 0:28:15.159
<v Speaker 1>China finds out about it and things start to go

0:28:15.280 --> 0:28:18.280
<v Speaker 1>very badly for you very quickly, and for sure, like

0:28:18.320 --> 0:28:22.040
<v Speaker 1>that's that's that's a real danger. That yeah, and regardless

0:28:22.119 --> 0:28:25.400
<v Speaker 1>of how many spies there are, how pervasive they are,

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:29.280
<v Speaker 1>like it is a real experience, real fear. The Chinese

0:28:29.280 --> 0:28:32.760
<v Speaker 1>students here have, right, they don't feel comfortable, you know,

0:28:32.920 --> 0:28:35.720
<v Speaker 1>they might feel more comfortable speaking openly here than they

0:28:35.760 --> 0:28:39.240
<v Speaker 1>do actually within China, but they still don't feel totally free.

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:52.040
<v Speaker 1>And and that is a very widespread sentiment, I guess

0:28:52.240 --> 0:28:55.840
<v Speaker 1>sort of enclosing, I don't know, might I don't think

0:28:55.920 --> 0:29:00.840
<v Speaker 1>anyone can really have much of an analysis that's better

0:29:00.880 --> 0:29:03.720
<v Speaker 1>than them guessing about what's going to happen next, because

0:29:04.240 --> 0:29:08.520
<v Speaker 1>this already was something that like two weeks ago, like

0:29:08.560 --> 0:29:11.560
<v Speaker 1>if you'd ask anyone, like anyone in China or outside

0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:14.080
<v Speaker 1>of China who wasn't like I don't know like in

0:29:14.120 --> 0:29:16.320
<v Speaker 1>the following Gong or something, whether whether they were suddenly

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:19.160
<v Speaker 1>going to be large deal like protested China ever would

0:29:19.200 --> 0:29:22.840
<v Speaker 1>have been like are you nuts? But yeah, I'm wondering

0:29:22.880 --> 0:29:27.480
<v Speaker 1>how what you think is going to happen next? I

0:29:27.520 --> 0:29:30.120
<v Speaker 1>don't know. My my my sort of tentative read of

0:29:30.200 --> 0:29:35.160
<v Speaker 1>it was like it seems like I don't know. It's

0:29:35.160 --> 0:29:36.960
<v Speaker 1>it seems to me that for for a very very

0:29:37.040 --> 0:29:40.320
<v Speaker 1>long time, the Chinese political system was specifically set up

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:42.800
<v Speaker 1>to stop this, like like this was this was the

0:29:42.840 --> 0:29:44.640
<v Speaker 1>exact thing it was. It was designed to make sure

0:29:44.680 --> 0:29:47.080
<v Speaker 1>there would never be another sort of like like that

0:29:47.160 --> 0:29:50.240
<v Speaker 1>there would never be a large well and you know,

0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:51.880
<v Speaker 1>we don't know how how long this is going to

0:29:51.960 --> 0:29:53.479
<v Speaker 1>go on, right, but there was There was never There

0:29:53.520 --> 0:29:55.960
<v Speaker 1>was never supposed to be another street movement that was

0:29:56.080 --> 0:29:59.320
<v Speaker 1>like coordinated between cities that was large and that had

0:29:59.360 --> 0:30:03.880
<v Speaker 1>real political to man's and you know, I like, I

0:30:03.640 --> 0:30:05.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, Maybe maybe I could, I could be

0:30:05.920 --> 0:30:08.680
<v Speaker 1>the most brog I've ever been, but I cannot imagine

0:30:08.760 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 1>this like this specific round of protests really like challenging

0:30:13.800 --> 0:30:17.840
<v Speaker 1>the government at all. Like I don't know, some something

0:30:17.880 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 1>something would have to like I don't know, like aliens

0:30:20.760 --> 0:30:22.959
<v Speaker 1>would have to like descend from the sky or something like.

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:25.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, I don't like, I don't I don't

0:30:25.800 --> 0:30:28.400
<v Speaker 1>think they can do it. But the frequency at which

0:30:28.440 --> 0:30:32.400
<v Speaker 1>these kinds of things break out has been increasing steadily

0:30:32.480 --> 0:30:34.280
<v Speaker 1>for the past probably twenty or thirty years. I mean,

0:30:34.440 --> 0:30:36.479
<v Speaker 1>the nineties are sort of a low point for this stuff.

0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:39.560
<v Speaker 1>But you know, like if if you're if you're in

0:30:39.560 --> 0:30:45.600
<v Speaker 1>a country like Ecuador, right, you've seen like two pretty

0:30:45.720 --> 0:30:51.040
<v Speaker 1>large scale like mass street movements in like three years, right,

0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:53.640
<v Speaker 1>and you know, it's it's it's, it's, it's. It seems

0:30:53.640 --> 0:30:57.160
<v Speaker 1>to be sort of broadly the there's there, there's there's

0:30:57.200 --> 0:31:00.120
<v Speaker 1>been this sort of like the decaying economic condition to

0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:03.640
<v Speaker 1>combined with this like the general decaying ability of the

0:31:03.680 --> 0:31:08.160
<v Speaker 1>state to prevent like a subsequent movement from from unfolding.

0:31:08.720 --> 0:31:11.480
<v Speaker 1>And so I don't know, like I I my sense

0:31:11.560 --> 0:31:13.280
<v Speaker 1>is that this one's not gonna do anything, but we

0:31:13.360 --> 0:31:15.680
<v Speaker 1>might see another one of these in like three years

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:20.760
<v Speaker 1>or something. Yeah, I don't think we're going to see

0:31:20.880 --> 0:31:23.240
<v Speaker 1>this movement in the in the weeks and months to

0:31:23.320 --> 0:31:28.200
<v Speaker 1>come to like cohere into this like massive politically potent

0:31:28.320 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 1>force that has the capacity to either continue to exert

0:31:32.720 --> 0:31:36.160
<v Speaker 1>demands on the central state or threatened state power. Like

0:31:36.280 --> 0:31:39.400
<v Speaker 1>I don't think that that's going to happen. Um, I

0:31:39.480 --> 0:31:41.720
<v Speaker 1>do think. I think I think the first thing is

0:31:41.920 --> 0:31:44.680
<v Speaker 1>to acknowledge and to chalk up the victories that have

0:31:44.760 --> 0:31:49.280
<v Speaker 1>already been Um. One, so Fox foxne workers got paid.

0:31:49.280 --> 0:31:52.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, they went out, they rioted something like Fox's like,

0:31:53.000 --> 0:31:54.640
<v Speaker 1>here's ten thousand you one for you to leave that

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:57.000
<v Speaker 1>even for you to do your job right. So like

0:31:57.200 --> 0:31:59.040
<v Speaker 1>and those are workers that came in after the other

0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:01.320
<v Speaker 1>workers escaped, so they have been there in quarantine for

0:32:01.400 --> 0:32:03.840
<v Speaker 1>like a couple of days, rioted got ten thousand un

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:06.880
<v Speaker 1>which is like almost U S dollars like they so

0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:10.880
<v Speaker 1>so they did really well. Um And but I think

0:32:10.920 --> 0:32:14.200
<v Speaker 1>more broadly, you know, around the zero COVID the government

0:32:14.240 --> 0:32:17.120
<v Speaker 1>has already made changes. They will never acknowledge we're doing

0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:20.200
<v Speaker 1>this because people protested, like that's not how they operate.

0:32:20.680 --> 0:32:23.520
<v Speaker 1>But um, you know, they said, Okay, we're actually gonna

0:32:23.520 --> 0:32:26.040
<v Speaker 1>get more serious about vaccinating people, which is what they

0:32:26.080 --> 0:32:28.640
<v Speaker 1>need to do in order to have sort of an

0:32:28.640 --> 0:32:32.600
<v Speaker 1>exit strategy. There have been some some signals, low key

0:32:32.640 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 1>ones about further loosening. I mean, I think that there's

0:32:35.360 --> 0:32:37.080
<v Speaker 1>a real question about how they go about doing this

0:32:37.160 --> 0:32:39.160
<v Speaker 1>because if they just let it rip tomorrow, like actually

0:32:39.320 --> 0:32:42.600
<v Speaker 1>hundreds of thousands and people will die. Yeah. So like

0:32:42.720 --> 0:32:44.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that what they need to do is they

0:32:44.640 --> 0:32:46.840
<v Speaker 1>need to vaccinate people, and they need to build a

0:32:46.880 --> 0:32:50.840
<v Speaker 1>real public health infrastructure that includes migrant workers. But you know,

0:32:50.920 --> 0:32:54.520
<v Speaker 1>that's we'll see if that happens. So so I think

0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:57.080
<v Speaker 1>that those are already victories like which which we should

0:32:57.320 --> 0:32:59.640
<v Speaker 1>which you know, we should take account of. And I

0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:04.400
<v Speaker 1>think moving forward, the ability to repress like the the

0:33:05.120 --> 0:33:08.680
<v Speaker 1>street demonstrations should not be under underestimated. Like the state

0:33:08.720 --> 0:33:11.680
<v Speaker 1>has immense resources at its capacity. I don't think that

0:33:11.680 --> 0:33:14.240
<v Speaker 1>we're going to continue to see people chanting, you know,

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:17.080
<v Speaker 1>down with the Communist Party in the streets regularly. Um,

0:33:17.160 --> 0:33:19.320
<v Speaker 1>So I think that they'll be able to at least

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:22.000
<v Speaker 1>push that down a little bit and maybe with some concessions,

0:33:22.040 --> 0:33:24.680
<v Speaker 1>people will be satisfied. You know, the guy who just

0:33:24.680 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 1>wants to be able to go to the movie, like

0:33:26.240 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 1>next year at this time, there's a good chance he

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:30.680
<v Speaker 1>will just be able to go to the movies. To

0:33:30.760 --> 0:33:33.640
<v Speaker 1>kind of continue with my labor centric perspective, though, I

0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:36.480
<v Speaker 1>think it's going to be harder for for workers. I

0:33:36.520 --> 0:33:38.240
<v Speaker 1>think it's going to be harder for them to repress

0:33:38.360 --> 0:33:40.960
<v Speaker 1>that as long as the closed loop management systems are

0:33:40.960 --> 0:33:43.400
<v Speaker 1>in effect and lockdowns are happening. I mean, it just

0:33:43.440 --> 0:33:47.320
<v Speaker 1>puts insane demands on these workers. And there were revolts

0:33:47.320 --> 0:33:51.240
<v Speaker 1>against it when it first happened in Shanghai back in April. Uh,

0:33:51.280 --> 0:33:55.040
<v Speaker 1>and I think that those will continue to exist. UM.

0:33:55.080 --> 0:33:57.320
<v Speaker 1>But I think we'll probably see this kind of reversion

0:33:57.400 --> 0:34:02.600
<v Speaker 1>to what's existed for the last couple of decades, which

0:34:02.640 --> 0:34:06.200
<v Speaker 1>is lots of you know, small scale, somewhat manageable and

0:34:06.280 --> 0:34:10.520
<v Speaker 1>localized protests. The question is, like, does this kind of

0:34:10.560 --> 0:34:14.680
<v Speaker 1>open up, um, the possibility of politicization, which we have

0:34:14.760 --> 0:34:18.759
<v Speaker 1>not really seen since nine UM in a in a

0:34:18.880 --> 0:34:21.920
<v Speaker 1>robust way at least, And so does this kind of

0:34:22.080 --> 0:34:25.200
<v Speaker 1>open up some of those possibilities so those local protests

0:34:25.239 --> 0:34:27.440
<v Speaker 1>can begin to to speak to each other with some

0:34:27.480 --> 0:34:31.640
<v Speaker 1>sort of common language, UM, and and cohere some kind

0:34:31.640 --> 0:34:34.840
<v Speaker 1>of political force that's harder for the state to tame. UM.

0:34:34.920 --> 0:34:37.120
<v Speaker 1>We'll see, Yeah, And I guess and I guess the

0:34:37.239 --> 0:34:40.680
<v Speaker 1>other sort of X factor here is like can can

0:34:40.760 --> 0:34:45.040
<v Speaker 1>can the CCP get the growth rate above like five? No?

0:34:45.280 --> 0:34:48.560
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, like that's like yeah, I I I don't.

0:34:48.600 --> 0:34:50.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how they do it like that. I

0:34:50.920 --> 0:34:54.160
<v Speaker 1>don't know, like I I short of like short of

0:34:54.200 --> 0:34:57.759
<v Speaker 1>like actually just letting all of the sort of like

0:34:57.760 --> 0:35:01.120
<v Speaker 1>like all all of the sort of like slack and

0:35:01.160 --> 0:35:03.799
<v Speaker 1>excess capacity just get like you know, just just like

0:35:03.840 --> 0:35:06.719
<v Speaker 1>intentionally tanking the entire economy and just like running all

0:35:06.760 --> 0:35:08.640
<v Speaker 1>of these sort of unprofitable business in the ground. Like yeah,

0:35:08.640 --> 0:35:10.439
<v Speaker 1>I don't, I don't see how they do that. And

0:35:10.560 --> 0:35:12.200
<v Speaker 1>that does seem to me, like you know, to be

0:35:12.239 --> 0:35:16.759
<v Speaker 1>a kind of like the sort of like looming horizon over.

0:35:16.800 --> 0:35:18.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean this and this is really true of everyone,

0:35:18.640 --> 0:35:22.920
<v Speaker 1>like the the sort of looming horizon over, Like every

0:35:22.960 --> 0:35:25.440
<v Speaker 1>government in the world has been that the growth rate

0:35:25.440 --> 0:35:28.319
<v Speaker 1>has been collapsing for like the last forty years, and

0:35:28.719 --> 0:35:30.759
<v Speaker 1>China was, you know, trying to change the comedy was

0:35:30.800 --> 0:35:34.919
<v Speaker 1>like the last thing that was really driving it. And

0:35:35.040 --> 0:35:39.280
<v Speaker 1>that's like not really true anymore. It's it's a disaster.

0:35:39.440 --> 0:35:41.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean. And then even even without COVID, it was

0:35:41.640 --> 0:35:46.120
<v Speaker 1>sort of like not going great. I mean, it wasn't

0:35:46.160 --> 0:35:48.160
<v Speaker 1>like you know, I mean it hadn't reached like it

0:35:48.719 --> 0:35:51.800
<v Speaker 1>hadn't like reached like you know, like recession, or it

0:35:51.840 --> 0:35:55.400
<v Speaker 1>hadn't really reached like sort of post industrialized country levels

0:35:55.440 --> 0:35:58.000
<v Speaker 1>of like here's your two percent growth every year, be

0:35:58.000 --> 0:36:02.279
<v Speaker 1>happy with it, but like I it out. Yeah, but

0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:04.920
<v Speaker 1>but the growth, I mean this is maybe like another

0:36:04.920 --> 0:36:09.600
<v Speaker 1>whole conversation, but like the growth has become less effective, right.

0:36:09.640 --> 0:36:12.960
<v Speaker 1>It's it's this like investment led growth. It's there, there's

0:36:13.080 --> 0:36:17.239
<v Speaker 1>massive growth in debt, and they can, you know, build

0:36:17.239 --> 0:36:20.200
<v Speaker 1>another bridge, build another airport building. I mean, they're not

0:36:20.239 --> 0:36:23.440
<v Speaker 1>building the apartment blocks as much anymore, but they do

0:36:23.520 --> 0:36:26.440
<v Speaker 1>that they can prop up the growth a little bit, right,

0:36:26.560 --> 0:36:29.680
<v Speaker 1>But like the fundamental problem that they've been unable to

0:36:29.719 --> 0:36:32.440
<v Speaker 1>address is like increasing domestic consumption, you have a more

0:36:32.440 --> 0:36:34.759
<v Speaker 1>equitable model of growth. And the reason that they can't

0:36:34.760 --> 0:36:37.200
<v Speaker 1>do that is fundamentally a political problem. Like they can't

0:36:37.239 --> 0:36:40.480
<v Speaker 1>figure out a way to give working class people more

0:36:40.480 --> 0:36:44.560
<v Speaker 1>money and to give them some social protections, um and

0:36:44.640 --> 0:36:48.680
<v Speaker 1>like until they resolve that political problem, Like I just

0:36:48.719 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 1>don't see them being able to deal with with that

0:36:51.120 --> 0:36:53.640
<v Speaker 1>economic problem. So that means you are going to continue

0:36:53.680 --> 0:36:57.120
<v Speaker 1>to have this kind of ongoing forms of stagnation. Zero

0:36:57.160 --> 0:36:59.200
<v Speaker 1>COVID really hurts it a lot more. Of course, the

0:36:59.320 --> 0:37:02.840
<v Speaker 1>geo political conflict with the US and and Biden, you know,

0:37:02.960 --> 0:37:06.279
<v Speaker 1>trying to economically kneecap them like that doesn't help. And

0:37:06.320 --> 0:37:08.879
<v Speaker 1>then the demographics of you know, like all of these

0:37:08.920 --> 0:37:12.040
<v Speaker 1>things are making making their lives much more difficult. And

0:37:12.080 --> 0:37:16.600
<v Speaker 1>so one way to interpret what's happened, um under under

0:37:16.680 --> 0:37:20.440
<v Speaker 1>zero COVID is the expansion of a massive and terrifying

0:37:20.520 --> 0:37:24.280
<v Speaker 1>surveillance state that will allow them to weather whatever political

0:37:24.320 --> 0:37:28.640
<v Speaker 1>storms are coming in the future. Yeah, and I guess

0:37:28.640 --> 0:37:31.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. Well, well, well well we'll we'll, we'll see,

0:37:31.239 --> 0:37:33.560
<v Speaker 1>we'll see whether that works for them. I am somewhat

0:37:33.560 --> 0:37:37.399
<v Speaker 1>skeptical in that, like I don't know, like good luck,

0:37:38.560 --> 0:37:41.200
<v Speaker 1>actually terrible luck. I hope it goes badly for them,

0:37:41.360 --> 0:37:46.160
<v Speaker 1>the worst of luck. Yeah. So, Eli, thank you so

0:37:46.239 --> 0:37:49.040
<v Speaker 1>much for coming on the show. Yeah, it's been a pleasure. Yeah.

0:37:49.120 --> 0:37:52.160
<v Speaker 1>And Okay, where where can people find you and find

0:37:52.400 --> 0:37:55.960
<v Speaker 1>the stuff that you do? Uh well, I'm on Twitter

0:37:56.440 --> 0:37:59.840
<v Speaker 1>as long as it's still there, um Eli D Friedman

0:38:00.400 --> 0:38:07.200
<v Speaker 1>And uh yeah, I'm on the Internet. I don't know,

0:38:07.239 --> 0:38:09.320
<v Speaker 1>that's that's the main place. Come if you're in Ithica,

0:38:09.480 --> 0:38:12.400
<v Speaker 1>come on by all right, yeah this this has make

0:38:12.440 --> 0:38:17.080
<v Speaker 1>it happen here, drag every government into perpetual and terminal

0:38:17.080 --> 0:38:23.640
<v Speaker 1>crisis until it's ops existing. It could Happen here as

0:38:23.680 --> 0:38:26.359
<v Speaker 1>a production of cool Zone Media. For more podcasts from

0:38:26.400 --> 0:38:29.359
<v Speaker 1>cool Zone Media, visit our website cool zone media dot com,

0:38:29.480 --> 0:38:31.200
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0:38:31.239 --> 0:38:34.560
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0:38:34.600 --> 0:38:37.279
<v Speaker 1>find sources for It could Happen Here, updated monthly at

0:38:37.320 --> 0:38:40.560
<v Speaker 1>cool zone media dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.