Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Karl Messer and
Speaker 2: Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: When you're thinking about inflation and how much it has
Speaker 1: strained consumers' finances in recent years, it's also affecting charities
Speaker 1: that depend on donations for their fillent anthropic work. And
Speaker 1: a new study for Wells Fargo on Giving in America
Speaker 1: Today that analyze consumers feelings on charitable giving. Three quarters
Speaker 1: of Americans say that generosity is a part of their
Speaker 1: core values, though how feel like they don't have enough
Speaker 1: money to give. Although giving remains a study for most,
Speaker 1: nearly a third are donating less this past year. So
Speaker 1: what exactly gives Tim? And as the calendar nears twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five, can a new incoming administration Washington change those
Speaker 1: feelings in anticipation of favorable tax policies? So here to
Speaker 1: impact the survey for us is Stephanie Buckley, head of
Speaker 1: Trust in Philanthropic Services at Wells Fargo, joining us from
Speaker 1: Los Angeles. Thanks so much Stephanie for being here with us.
Speaker 1: Walk us through sort of this latest report, and why
Speaker 1: is it that you're starting to see not even just
Speaker 1: you know, inflation that especially over the past few years
Speaker 1: that had weighed on consumers, but you're also seeing it
Speaker 1: in particular corners of the market when it comes to
Speaker 1: charities in those donations.
Speaker 3: Absolutely, our survey result was very interesting. I was interested
Speaker 3: to see what was going on, and as you noted,
Speaker 3: roughly twenty nine percent gave less, but yet seventy eight
Speaker 3: percent again, as you noted, are have generosity as one
Speaker 3: of their core values. So it's an interesting mix. And
Speaker 3: in terms of.
Speaker 4: The inflation that we're seeing, you know, a.
Speaker 3: Lot of it is if you think about it, like
Speaker 3: if you go to the grocery store for one hundred dollars,
Speaker 3: it used to be a whole basket of groceries coming out.
Speaker 3: Now maybe I get a bag of groceries. And I
Speaker 3: think people are really feeling that pinch, and so that
Speaker 3: is carrying over into the philanthropic world, and that's what
Speaker 3: we're seeing.
Speaker 1: It.
Speaker 2: I feel like going into the philanthropic world this year
Speaker 2: in a different way than last year. I mean, by
Speaker 2: pretty much every measure, inflation has eased from where it
Speaker 2: was a year ago, and of course where it was
Speaker 2: two years ago.
Speaker 3: Yes, but what we're seeing and what we're seeing with
Speaker 3: our clients in particular, is they don't yes, it's easing
Speaker 3: a bit, but they're not feeling that it's easing enough
Speaker 3: that they have a lot of extra funds to give.
Speaker 3: And that's what the survey was showing, is that people
Speaker 3: just don't feel like they have the extra But the
Speaker 3: other side of it is they still fill that tug
Speaker 3: that pool to give to charity and to help others
Speaker 3: who are in need. And so again the surveys showed
Speaker 3: that that core value, most of them still have the
Speaker 3: core value of generosity. And we even saw some who
Speaker 3: what we call the sacrificial giving who will say, you know,
Speaker 3: I'm going to defer my own needs to help others
Speaker 3: who may be in a worse situation than I am.
Speaker 1: So when it comes to different types of tax policies,
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people want to point to
Speaker 1: that is potentially something that could help out the situation,
Speaker 1: but walk us through kind of the difficulties there and
Speaker 1: what would need to happen in order to see that
Speaker 1: help charitable giving, because there's a lot of different types
Speaker 1: of things when it comes to deductions that are a
Speaker 1: little bit more convoluted not as easy to decipher.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great question. What we're seeing is what
Speaker 3: the past tax changes. The standard deduction went up significantly,
Speaker 3: and what that meant is that less people are itemizing
Speaker 3: their deduction and for gifts to charities, that's an itemized deduction.
Speaker 3: So for some people they feel like, well, if I'm
Speaker 3: not going to get that extra tax benefit, and maybe
Speaker 3: I don't feel like I have a lot of extra money,
Speaker 3: I'm not going to give. But for those who are itemizing,
Speaker 3: that is a big lever that they can use because
Speaker 3: essentially that charitable gifting, if they are itemizing their deductions,
Speaker 3: whatever they give to charity is going to proportionately reduce
Speaker 3: some of their tax axes. And so we are seeing
Speaker 3: that and that was a big thing that came out
Speaker 3: when the standard deduction raised significantly. As we know with
Speaker 3: the current incoming administration, they were the ones that did
Speaker 3: that big jump in the standard deduction, so likely it's
Speaker 3: going to maintain. And for charities, that shift was focusing
Speaker 3: on their larger donors who are itemizing, and those donors
Speaker 3: who give maybe it's the ten one hundred, one thousand
Speaker 3: dollars amounts which might seem small, but honestly, for charities
Speaker 3: that is a significant lifeblood for them to get those
Speaker 3: smaller amounts because those smaller amounts over a large amount
Speaker 3: of people do add up for them. So it is
Speaker 3: important for all levels of donors that give to charity
Speaker 3: to continue to give to support the charities that are
Speaker 3: doing the important work.
Speaker 2: Stephanie, I'm wondering if your survey accounted for income level
Speaker 2: or net worth level in terms of people who gave,
Speaker 2: and what you can tell us about how giving changes
Speaker 2: across income spectrums, like as a proportion of how much
Speaker 2: money people have, how much they give.
Speaker 3: Now again, when it comes to giving, interesting enough, what
Speaker 3: studies historically so not just the walls part of a study,
Speaker 3: but those at the lower income levels often give a
Speaker 3: higher percentage of their assets. And the other piece too,
Speaker 3: that I think is important to talk about in terms
Speaker 3: of giving. It's not just giving money, right, so we
Speaker 3: call what the treasures the five te's. It's also giving time.
Speaker 3: It's also giving of your expertise, it's giving you know,
Speaker 3: in addition to the treasure, it's giving testimony, it's the
Speaker 3: actual service. And so part of what I think is
Speaker 3: important when we talk about philanthropy is to broaden the
Speaker 3: conversation beyond just the treasure in the in the five t's,
Speaker 3: it's to broaden it to all sorts of aspects. And
Speaker 3: when you are that inclusive, what we find is those
Speaker 3: who are at the lower income levels typically give more
Speaker 3: to society than those who are at the higher in
Speaker 3: terms of like a percentage of assets.
Speaker 1: So how are the demographics of donor shifting?
Speaker 3: Well, again, as I mentioned before, if we're talking about
Speaker 3: and what usually the measurable piece of it is the
Speaker 3: treasure right, we can measure how much people are giving
Speaker 3: based on tax returns or what charities are reporting that
Speaker 3: they received for donations in a particular year. And so
Speaker 3: again with the higher standard deduction, as I mentioned before,
Speaker 3: what we're measuring the treasure amount is those who are
Speaker 3: in the higher income who have the ability to overcome
Speaker 3: the hurdle of the standard deduction, are giving more. They're
Speaker 3: becoming the larger base of donors for a lot of
Speaker 3: charities and charities we are seeing that in the giving numbers,
Speaker 3: and as part of that, they are also looking at
Speaker 3: those who, like I said before, give those lower amounts,
Speaker 3: and those amounts are critical. So I think The important
Speaker 3: part for people to realize is, you know, maybe you're
Speaker 3: not getting the benefit of the day action, but the
Speaker 3: charities still need those those gifts. You say, well, ten dollars,
Speaker 3: what is that going to do? It actually does a lot,
Speaker 3: especially when it's multiplied across a larger, break larger group
Speaker 3: of people who are giving.
Speaker 2: So let's look forward to twenty twenty five and how
Speaker 2: you and the team at Wells Fargar are thinking about
Speaker 2: a new administration when it comes to charitable giving. We
Speaker 2: know a big part of the priorities of the incoming
Speaker 2: Trump administration is to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs
Speaker 2: Act when they do when it does expire next year.
Speaker 2: How did that shift I believe it was twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2: How did that change charitable giving in the first administration
Speaker 2: based on previously because of rules about deduction and those
Speaker 2: sorts of things.
Speaker 4: Yep.
Speaker 3: In some ways, as I've said before, it's changed who
Speaker 3: is giving. But in other ways, I think it also
Speaker 3: has encouraged those who maybe are not in an agreement
Speaker 3: with thet to really give to support the causes that
Speaker 3: are important to them. So one of the things we're
Speaker 3: seeing is, for example, you know, maybe women's rights. A
Speaker 3: lot of people are rising up and saying, you know what,
Speaker 3: that is important to me, and I want to give
Speaker 3: to that cause. So in other ways where they might
Speaker 3: not have been as encouraged to do it before, they're
Speaker 3: really focusing on that. And that's another note too that
Speaker 3: I think is important to be aware of, is that
Speaker 3: a lot of people want to be able to be
Speaker 3: strategic with their philanthropy. They want to be able to say, like, hey,
Speaker 3: whatever I'm giving here is really making a difference. And
Speaker 3: so as part of that, it's important for people to
Speaker 3: think about, you know, maybe just not what we call
Speaker 3: spreading pockets of sunshine here and there, but to say,
Speaker 3: you know, how much do I have in my budget
Speaker 3: to give to philanthropy or to give to the charities
Speaker 3: I want to support this year, and to focus a
Speaker 3: good portion on those particular causes where they know that
Speaker 3: giving a large amount can get a bigger impact for
Speaker 3: what's truly important to them.
Speaker 2: Stephanie Buckley, head of Trust Philanthropic Services at Wells Fargo,
Speaker 2: joining us this afternoon. All right, well, look at chairs
Speaker 2: of Hewlett Packard Enterprise kind of jumping all over the place,
Speaker 2: higher by about one point six percent right now, in
Speaker 2: the after hours, the company did report better than expected
Speaker 2: quarterly revenue and a jump in sales of servers to
Speaker 2: power AI work We've got with us right now, Crawford
Speaker 2: del Pratt, President over at I d C, joining us
Speaker 2: here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Welcome back, Crawford.
Speaker 2: You've had a chance to dive into these numbers a
Speaker 2: little bit. What sticks out to you?
Speaker 4: Yeah, so great to see you guys, Thanks for having me. So, look,
Speaker 4: this is a record revenue quarter for for HPE, and
Speaker 4: I think it's it's indicative of a number of things.
Speaker 4: It's indicative of this extraordinary server and storage growth that
Speaker 4: we're seeing. So, you know, just for context, the server
Speaker 4: business was a single digit growth business for multiple years.
Speaker 1: I d C.
Speaker 4: Overall, we forecast you know, wait for it, thirty seven
Speaker 4: percent growth in servers and storage this year in dollars. Okay,
Speaker 4: So what's driving that. It's an architectural shift to AI,
Speaker 4: right and we are seeing that service providers and then
Speaker 4: ultimately enterprises will need to upgrade their infrastructure to support
Speaker 4: these new what we call AI workloads.
Speaker 1: So especially because when you hear AI, always think of
Speaker 1: maybe companies like an Nvidia, maybe not as sexy as
Speaker 1: a name quite like this, but when it comes to
Speaker 1: especially sort of the it spending side of things with
Speaker 1: HPE as well as some of its other competitors, who
Speaker 1: do you think can really benefit from this Beyonce when
Speaker 1: we're talking about other type of chip type semiconductor type stocks.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So when you start looking at what's happening with AI,
Speaker 4: and this is what you're seeing in HPEES numbers, is
Speaker 4: that you have to upgrade your overall infrastructure. So that
Speaker 4: means that companies like HPE are benefiting, companies like Dell
Speaker 4: are benefiting. You're seeing also ultimately you'll see the software
Speaker 4: stack associated with managing your infrastructure. Ultimately your applications will benefit.
Speaker 4: But that's going to take a longer period of time.
Speaker 4: But in the near term, you know, beyond the Nvidia,
Speaker 4: you're seeing that the entire infrastructures that needs to get grinded.
Speaker 4: Now for let's just get back to HPE for a second.
Speaker 4: What's also happening at HPE is that a number of
Speaker 4: years ago they went on diversification strategy. They bought a
Speaker 4: company called Uruba Networks and a Ruben Networks expanded their
Speaker 4: footprint in the enterprise. So last quarter, HPE, you had
Speaker 4: a tougher reaction from Wall Street because they saw their
Speaker 4: gross margins dip. They saw them dip again, but that
Speaker 4: was really related to a slow down and a stall
Speaker 4: in the enterprise infrastructure space in a RUBA networks what'll
Speaker 4: we call the edge of the network, the wireless and
Speaker 4: wireless infrastructure. And as that infrastructure now is working through
Speaker 4: its inventory, HP saw a sequential increase in that business,
Speaker 4: even though it's still down twenty percent year over year.
Speaker 4: Sequentially that business is starting to stabilize and their gross
Speaker 4: margins will start to have started the stabilized as well,
Speaker 4: although like I said, they were down about four hundred BIPs. Now,
Speaker 4: I think going forward, what you're seeing at the company
Speaker 4: is and you're seeing this in other companies as well,
Speaker 4: like Dell, that the demand is just sustained for infrastructure
Speaker 4: and the demand for n HP's case, HPEES case, the
Speaker 4: demand for infrastructure around the network will likely increase and
Speaker 4: it'll forget. They announced that they have the air intent
Speaker 4: required Juniper Networks that will add their ability to get
Speaker 4: the service provider side of the network and they expect
Speaker 4: to close that deal sometime in early twenty five. So
Speaker 4: it's a very interesting story. Is this company is really
Speaker 4: reinventing itself and is seeing the benefit of that reinvention
Speaker 4: in their numbers.
Speaker 2: What's it trying to leave behind?
Speaker 4: So, what it's trying to leave behind is running on
Speaker 4: that X eighty six Intel treadmill of commoditization, right. I mean,
Speaker 4: so you know, HPE sat back a number of years
Speaker 4: ago and said, where are the largest profit pools that
Speaker 4: we can prosecute in the enterprise networking at the top
Speaker 4: of the list. That's why they went after Ruba software.
Speaker 4: That's why they brought out things like es Morale Storage.
Speaker 4: That's why they and by the way, Dell Body MC right. Yeah,
Speaker 4: in the in the case of HPE, they brought out Electro,
Speaker 4: which is their new storage platform. Now they're looking at
Speaker 4: at networking and saying, huh, well, there's also this service
Speaker 4: provider networking, this really high capacity, high bandwidth networking. Juniper
Speaker 4: adds that that's what is So what they're trying to
Speaker 4: do is they're they're basically the gravitational force of commoditization,
Speaker 4: is what they're leading. They're trying to leave behind.
Speaker 1: Jessman and Timsten of Akure the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio.
Speaker 1: We're actually back with Crawford del President at IDC International
Speaker 1: Data Corp, joining us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio
Speaker 1: once again. And so we were just speaking Crawford about
Speaker 1: obviously HPE posting higher than expected fourth quarter revenue due
Speaker 1: to that continuing AI demand and looking at that stock HPE,
Speaker 1: and after I was trading up close to two percent.
Speaker 1: But another stock I wanted to point out that a
Speaker 1: lot of tension is given to is super Micro SMC.
Speaker 1: Now at a certain point it was one of the
Speaker 1: worst performing stocks in the S and P five hundred
Speaker 1: this year just because of those questions surrounding its accounting practices.
Speaker 1: Though if you look here to date, it's recovered some
Speaker 1: of those losses and it's actually help around forty five percent.
Speaker 1: You were talking about kind of the exposure when it
Speaker 1: comes to service providers. If you're thinking about like Metas Salesforce, Microsoft,
Speaker 1: SMCI doesn't exactly have the same kind of broad reach
Speaker 1: that some of its competitors do when it comes to
Speaker 1: a company like this, and especially some of the accounting
Speaker 1: news that has come past. How do you make of
Speaker 1: this and is its stock performance so far?
Speaker 4: Yeah, So when you look at super Micro, it's a
Speaker 4: fascinating company because where an HPE or a Dell or
Speaker 4: Lenovo sells a broad range of products that address the
Speaker 4: needs of many many different kinds of enterprises and also
Speaker 4: service providers, certainly super Micro has a range of products,
Speaker 4: but really what they do is a significant amount of
Speaker 4: engineering and innovation really for what we call ultra dense
Speaker 4: service provider applications. And so you know you're a hyperscaler,
Speaker 4: so you're a Microsoft, or you're a or you're a Meta,
Speaker 4: or you're a Google. Super Micro is going to do
Speaker 4: that really really tight engineering between the components as well
Speaker 4: between between component suppliers as well as the actual physical
Speaker 4: box and bring that box out and and and allow
Speaker 4: you to have a very very dense environment. The downside
Speaker 4: of that is that they don't have the same distribution channel,
Speaker 4: they don't have the same reach that you would see
Speaker 4: at a Lenovo or at a Dell. So the concentration
Speaker 4: of customers is very very high.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's incredible. You go to this, Uh, well, the
Speaker 2: concentration of customers, the concentration of who they're buying.
Speaker 4: From both Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: Because they see that on both it's like it's pretty remarkable.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're a huge customer of Nvidia. Yeah, oh absolutely,
Speaker 2: it's like they're one of the top customers there.
Speaker 4: So so think about the AI and actually this this
Speaker 4: is a great metamor think about the AI kind of
Speaker 4: market right now is an upside down triangle. At the
Speaker 4: top of the triangle or the service providers, and that's
Speaker 4: where the majority of your demand is coming. Okay, that's
Speaker 4: the animal that's eating all the Nvidia processors right now.
Speaker 2: So that's the Microsoft's and the Amazon that's.
Speaker 4: The hyperscalers, the Microsofts, the Amazon's, the salesforces, the the
Speaker 4: metas and as that triangle comes down, it gets narrow
Speaker 4: or narrow because the enterprise customers haven't really stepped up
Speaker 4: and bought into generative AI in the same way within
Speaker 4: their data center.
Speaker 2: Is that but if they do it, wouldn't they just
Speaker 2: go to a hyperscaler. Well that's just it, rather than
Speaker 2: doing it on prem potentially.
Speaker 4: But what we see is we see a lot of customers.
Speaker 4: I'm not saying this is a customer, but a customer
Speaker 4: like a a JP Morgan or something like that, but
Speaker 4: significant investment in custom applications, and those custom applications they
Speaker 4: want to be able to take those data stores that
Speaker 4: they're creating in their custom applications. Those are in their
Speaker 4: own data centers, and they will ultimately want to train
Speaker 4: their own large language models and have their custom applications
Speaker 4: be able to use those large language models to be
Speaker 4: able to get generative AI answers to serve their customers
Speaker 4: and their employees in new ways. That is when the
Speaker 4: bottom of the pyramid starts to get wider, because then
Speaker 4: enterprises start buying into this technology. But we're not there yet.
Speaker 4: Where we are is the top is what's consuming the
Speaker 4: vast majority of these processors. And what's interesting about generative
Speaker 4: AI is that usually with these compute architectures, it becomes
Speaker 4: a law of diminishing returns, where the performance starts to
Speaker 4: tap out no matter how much capacity you throw at it.
Speaker 4: We haven't seen that yet. With generative AI. You can
Speaker 4: keep throwing processing capacity at it and the system gets
Speaker 4: more and more and more capable, and you can also
Speaker 4: get significant speed gains. Yeah.
Speaker 1: One of my favorite functions in the terminal is s PLC,
Speaker 1: so you to see the supply chains. I'm sure to
Speaker 1: me have been looking at.
Speaker 4: To customer.
Speaker 1: US for our radio listeners so that they know so
Speaker 1: you can get engauge there. So super Micro has been
Speaker 1: in the S and P five hundred for less than
Speaker 1: a year.
Speaker 4: It got at it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this you got added toward the end of the
Speaker 1: first quarterback in March. So I mean, what do you
Speaker 1: make of kind of like what's next here after it's
Speaker 1: trying to get over this hurdle with the accounting issues.
Speaker 4: Yeah again, you know, and I see you know, we
Speaker 4: we we don't pick stocks, but I but I will
Speaker 4: tell you that from a from a performance standpoint, there
Speaker 4: is such a significant amount of engineering and so much
Speaker 4: as a significant amount of a demand within that company. I
Speaker 4: believe that in the long term they are going to
Speaker 4: benefit continue to benefit from this AI boom, particularly as
Speaker 4: service providers continue to invest. So you know, take that,
Speaker 4: take that with what you will. But I don't see
Speaker 4: a world where super Micro is not continuing to participate
Speaker 4: in this market.
Speaker 2: Okay, Crawford, I'm going to go off script a little bit, sure,
Speaker 2: because I want to get your take on this. You're
Speaker 2: in Boston, that's where you're absolutely Okay, you spend a
Speaker 2: lot of time in the Bay Area. Have you taken
Speaker 2: a weaimo.
Speaker 4: I have not taken away moh, but I have crossed
Speaker 4: the street in front of one and it didn't hit you.
Speaker 4: It didn't hit it didn't.
Speaker 2: You're that I like to see. Yeah, here's why I ask.
Speaker 2: I was out in San Francisco a few weeks ago.
Speaker 2: Now anyone can take these way mos. You don't have
Speaker 2: to be on a list anymore. I downloaded the app
Speaker 2: further right, I don't. I mean it was I was
Speaker 2: only able to go within San Francisco. That's all I
Speaker 2: needed to do. I know they're training them, Yeah, they're
Speaker 2: they're training them to go to the airport. Now you
Speaker 2: can't get on the highway with them. Yet it blew
Speaker 2: my mind. It was incredible. I was a skeptic. I'm
Speaker 2: totally sold. Now after this one twenty eight minute trip.
Speaker 2: Are we are we going? Where do the companies that
Speaker 2: you cover just in the last minute that we have, Yeah,
Speaker 2: where are the companies that you cover play in that space?
Speaker 2: Like if if we're working to a world where these
Speaker 2: are all going to be these are going to be
Speaker 2: all over, how do the companies that you cover benefit.
Speaker 4: Boy, there's there's number, there's a number of ways. And
Speaker 4: it also blew my mind. One of my team members
Speaker 4: sent me a video of her in a wamo and bananas.
Speaker 4: It's it's driving itself. It's driving itself around a lot
Speaker 4: of ways. So companies like so think of a driverless
Speaker 4: vehicle as a little data center, a little smart connected
Speaker 4: node on the network. It has its own network inside
Speaker 4: of it, and it's obviously consuming a lot of processing
Speaker 4: power from the network. But what's different about a self
Speaker 4: driving vehicle is the amount of processing it needs to do.
Speaker 4: We call this compute at the edge of the network
Speaker 4: because it has to decide very very rapidly. Is that
Speaker 4: a human, is that a mailbox? Is that a dog?
Speaker 4: Is that a shadow? And it has to be able.
Speaker 4: It can't compute that at the core of the network.
Speaker 4: It's got a computer at the edge. So the kinds
Speaker 4: of companies that benefit from that is surprise in Nvidia,
Speaker 4: where you know they've been a key partner to FSD
Speaker 4: so full self driving at Tesla for quite some time. Also,
Speaker 4: over time, maybe companies people don't think as much about Samsung,
Speaker 4: so they're going to be making a lot of the
Speaker 4: semiconductor content as well as the LED technology where you
Speaker 4: see these cars are become big curve displays.
Speaker 2: Over time, We've got a bit more time with you,
Speaker 2: and you know when we're chatting. Just now, before we
Speaker 2: did some news, we were talking about driverless cars, and
Speaker 2: I'm curious about you haven't had the chance to ride
Speaker 2: one some of your employees, have you mentioned? I was
Speaker 2: saying that I wrote in one in San Francisco a
Speaker 2: few weeks ago. Anyone listening or watching right now knows
Speaker 2: that because they can't stop talking about it. It was
Speaker 2: a Jaguar. Yeah, it was electric Jaguar. It was totally clean.
Speaker 2: I got in like you know, you can choose the music.
Speaker 2: It's I was facetiming with my parents to like show
Speaker 2: how cool this was. But I really I was so
Speaker 2: skeptical of the technology before and now that I was
Speaker 2: able to experience it, it was just absolutely remarkable. And I
Speaker 2: do envision a world where we see auto accidents just
Speaker 2: plummet as a result of technology such as this. Am
Speaker 2: I am I dreaming? Or is that something that happens
Speaker 2: in our lifetime?
Speaker 4: No, I don't think you're dreaming. I think it does
Speaker 4: fall in the category of the old Paul Sappho from
Speaker 4: Stanford Free so I don't confuse a clear view with
Speaker 4: a short distance.
Speaker 2: He's a futurist.
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's a futurist. And I think we are going
Speaker 4: to get there, but I think we're going to go
Speaker 4: through kind of an icky period. And that period is
Speaker 4: where the self driving cars don't make mistakes, but the
Speaker 4: humans do. And I think that's going to have really
Speaker 4: tough situation, a tough impact on things like insurance, and
Speaker 4: it's gonna make it, you know, potentially more expensive. And
Speaker 4: that may actually get to a point where people start
Speaker 4: to say, do I want to be the person not
Speaker 4: using self driving because it's costs a lot for me
Speaker 4: to get in this vehicle and use this vehicle, because
Speaker 4: the risk that I may be distracted by doing something,
Speaker 4: looking at a phone, having a bad day, whatever, the
Speaker 4: car never never has that. So I think eventually we
Speaker 4: will get there, but it's going to take us probably
Speaker 4: longer than people think because roads are complicated, Uh what's
Speaker 4: not gonna and they're complicated all over the world and
Speaker 4: all I mean, I self driving in Rome. You know,
Speaker 4: it gives me, gives me, It gives me, gives me
Speaker 4: a headache. But I think that we are very close
Speaker 4: to being able to see it on highways, being able
Speaker 4: to see it on UH in a lot of US
Speaker 4: cities and in a lot of North American cities. And
Speaker 4: I think we're probably fat It's probably closer than people think.
Speaker 4: I think it's you know, probably in the next in
Speaker 4: the next five years, you're probably going to start to
Speaker 4: see more and more modes, more and more companies bringing
Speaker 4: out the kind of technology the Tesla can bring out,
Speaker 4: where you know, you've got one hand on the steering wheel,
Speaker 4: but really, if you want to go pretty pretty full
Speaker 4: self pretty full sell driving, you can.
Speaker 1: I've actually never been in aweimo or anything like that.
Speaker 2: You're not the only one. There are only a few
Speaker 2: cities where they do this. They do it in Austin,
Speaker 2: they do it in Phoenix, there was a story about Miami.
Speaker 2: Of course, San Francisco, Yeah, in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: So when you're thinking about legislation coming out of Washington,
Speaker 1: obviously we have a new administration coming in, but kind
Speaker 1: of realistically over the course of years, because this will
Speaker 1: take a while. As you were mentioning, what do you
Speaker 1: think would need to happen? Because also you were talking
Speaker 1: about the complications of roads and depending on what type
Speaker 1: of city you're in.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so there's going to be a lot of legislation
Speaker 4: that's gonna that that's going to need to be addressed here,
Speaker 4: which is why I think it's going to take a
Speaker 4: long time, much longer than the five years I mentioned
Speaker 4: for full self driving. But the kind of assist where
Speaker 4: you know, what Tesla has today is really only what
Speaker 4: Tesla has where you have one a little couple fingers
Speaker 4: on the steering wheel and the car is doing the
Speaker 4: vast majority of the driving. That's going to go to
Speaker 4: multiple manufacturers.
Speaker 2: What I was in, what I was in was full
Speaker 2: self driving. I mean I wasn't even in.
Speaker 4: The Yeah, yeah, so what you were in is going
Speaker 4: to take a lot longer from a legislation standpoint, where
Speaker 4: we're going to have to see, again, this is going
Speaker 4: to get complicated because our state's comfortable with it is
Speaker 4: the federal government going across you know, if you if
Speaker 4: you want to go across state line, states have to
Speaker 4: have agreements, and if states don't have agreements, then it
Speaker 4: becomes a federal issue. And I think that could take,
Speaker 4: you know, a lot longer than the technology could take it.
Speaker 2: It's also hard from a rules perspective, and I mean
Speaker 2: rules in the sense of like rules of the road.
Speaker 2: For example, I had to drive recently and I was
Speaker 2: driving my car in New York City and there was
Speaker 2: a car double parked in front of me, so I
Speaker 2: couldn't get around it. In order to get around it,
Speaker 2: I had to actually go over a double yellow line.
Speaker 2: There were no cars coming right. But what I did
Speaker 2: was not considered following the rules in the sense of
Speaker 2: like if a computer, like I don't know if a
Speaker 2: computer would do that, if I were in a self
Speaker 2: driving car, would I have just sat.
Speaker 4: Would you have just sat there and been frustrated because
Speaker 4: you it's an obvious solution that's not going to harm anybody,
Speaker 4: and you know it's it's the kind of thing you
Speaker 4: could do potentially. And now those kinds of things, you know,
Speaker 4: can be those kinds of conditions can be programmed in,
Speaker 4: but probably not for a long time. I'll give you
Speaker 4: another example. What about the example where people start to
Speaker 4: figure out where the vulnerabilities are in these vehicles. So
Speaker 4: if you want to see that, you know I'm making
Speaker 4: this up, But if you want to see the vehicle
Speaker 4: behave in maybe a strange way, come up very close
Speaker 4: to the back corner of it, or you know, you
Speaker 4: to figure.
Speaker 2: Out sort of bad actors, not necessarily.
Speaker 4: Bad actors, but just people that try to figure out
Speaker 4: where the vulnerabilities are so that they can get around
Speaker 4: them faster potentially, or you know, potentially, you know, try
Speaker 4: to game the system in some way when you're a
Speaker 4: driver and you're and you're driving sort of against if
Speaker 4: you will, a full sell driving vehicle.
Speaker 1: Looks like Alphabet's robotaxi service is going to launch in
Speaker 1: Miami in twenty twenty six, so maybe that's down.
Speaker 4: More of these cropping up.
Speaker 2: I'm just waiting for New York, that's right.
Speaker 1: How how complicated is that?
Speaker 4: Like?
Speaker 3: Will?
Speaker 4: I mean, it seems very start getting out to some
Speaker 4: of those boroughs, you start getting downtown, it starts to
Speaker 4: get a little bit complicated. But I would say I
Speaker 4: don't think New York is meaningfully more complicated. San Francisco
Speaker 4: can be pretty complicated as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm talking to a friend who works intact and
Speaker 2: he was saying New York's tough because there aren't very
Speaker 2: many legal places to pull over where San Francisco there
Speaker 2: are a lot of like driveways that people can pull
Speaker 2: into to get into one of these things. But yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: it could be complicated here. See Crawford, always love it
Speaker 2: when you stop by. Thanks for sticking extra, Thanks so
Speaker 2: much for the time, Crawford Del Pratt, President at id C,